COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-03-16 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-03-16

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-03-16

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-3012-2712-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3012-2712-2212-2912-2712-2712-292021-01-072021-01-0111-1512-2812-2110-2912-2212-2712-2712-1312-2712-2812-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2711-0312-2112-2612-2512-0812-2712-2112-212021-01-0412-2212-2912-2612-2212-212021-01-0212-2112-2112-3112-2612-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-3012-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-212021-01-022021-02-2510-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-2412-2912-2412-2111-0212-2610-3112-2712-2912-2812-2112-2512-2212-2512-1412-232021-01-0612-2112-2312-2812-1812-282021-01-0412-2712-2612-2112-2712-2212-2112-2712-2112-2712-2212-2112-2112-2112-2212-2712-2712-2212-2212-1312-2712-1412-2812-2112-2912-2712-2812-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2212-2812-2812-2510-2812-2112-2712-2712-2912-3012-2712-2812-2112-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2212-212021-01-0412-302021-01-0312-2211-0412-2912-2112-2112-2112-2212-2512-2212-2612-2812-292021-01-0311-0412-2812-0812-2710-2512-2612-2111-0412-2112-3011-0312-212021-01-0412-2712-212021-01-0112-2912-2112-2712-2812-2712-2712-312021-01-0612-292021-01-0212-2912-212021-01-062021-01-0512-2212-2812-2112-2712-2812-1312-3112-1310-1712-3012-2712-2712-252021-01-2612-2812-2912-292021-01-0312-2112-3112-2912-2412-2712-3012-2512-2712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0912-2412-2112-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-212021-01-0312-2510-3112-2212-2812-2111-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-2512-2812-3012-2312-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2312-2112-2112-1212-2312-3012-2112-2212-2812-2212-2612-2110-2812-2812-2712-1812-2512-2112-2112-2212-2112-2712-2512-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2712-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-3012-2112-3012-2612-28
Peak daily increment 61 88 97 173 109 172 178 78 476 588 191 59 326 131 108 108 232 430 1252 74 158 66 58 158 49 485 141 441 228 107 525 155 310 318 107 505 93 188 62 123 123 141 98 255 87 149 171 173 301 90 265 52 200 250 283 60 90 71 66 244 53 95 284 35 367 289 38 184 599 151 69 189 72 246 41 249 187 118 323 539 60 53 76 160 110 52 225 102 165 147 108 54 143 590 271 95 74 54 89 73 125 54 38 122 80 92 56 180 90 449 120 220 59 200 57 398 176 103 339 101 109 135 120 477 100 155 47 445 57 115 450 139 84 134 236 275 148 71 100 296 197 190 312 429 107 379 287 104 444 72 113 730 272 200 89 37 377 90 420 29 46 299 49 62 148 118 362 79 105 63 123 85 725 23 50 159 105 51 109 59 124 122 41 55 277 158 124 225 90 44 126 127 109 154 118 201 104 174 620 83 81 173 52 187 40 133 139 56 96 199 80 86 60 175 36 26 163 451 42 82 405 65 130 244 210 244 167 98 107 101 69 180 27 42 85 82 95 79 110 80 67 102 113 245 294 456 131 152 219 93 57 112 177 132 194 66 42 202 105 320 189 181 125 55 108 46 141 328 91 44 138 123 369 138 49 11 558 153 92 107 85 258 324 452 387 229 77 139 117 160 65 154 87 30 83 42 67 115 217 220 264 83 149 432 106 139 375 106 115 96 173 71 69 186
Days since peak 79 76 79 85 79 98 85 83 80 83 154 79 83 78 64 76 79 84 77 79 79 77 68 74 121 78 85 138 84 79 79 93 79 78 81 85 80 84 76 76 79 133 85 80 81 98 79 85 85 71 84 77 80 84 85 73 85 85 75 80 79 78 77 84 84 76 78 79 79 85 81 85 85 73 19 153 79 99 80 79 82 77 82 85 134 80 136 79 77 78 85 81 84 81 92 83 69 85 83 78 88 78 71 79 80 85 79 84 85 79 85 79 84 85 85 85 84 79 79 84 84 93 79 92 78 85 77 79 78 82 81 85 74 78 79 84 78 78 81 139 85 79 79 77 76 79 78 85 79 79 107 79 79 84 85 71 76 72 84 132 77 85 85 85 84 81 84 80 78 77 72 132 78 98 79 142 80 85 132 85 76 133 85 71 79 85 74 77 85 79 78 79 79 75 69 77 73 77 85 69 70 84 78 85 79 78 93 75 93 150 76 79 79 81 49 78 77 77 72 85 75 77 82 79 76 81 79 85 84 85 78 80 81 71 84 127 82 85 86 72 78 79 84 85 92 78 80 85 72 81 136 84 78 85 135 85 83 84 79 85 99 81 78 76 83 76 71 79 85 83 85 85 94 83 76 85 84 78 84 80 85 139 78 79 88 81 85 85 84 85 79 81 86 93 78 99 84 79 79 78 77 84 84 78 79 84 79 74 78 76 85 76 80 78
Last total 2849 4955 8451 8071 9351 9650 11452 3795 23149 29892 18040 4188 17510 8006 7809 8111 13235 21973 98645 6812 17586 9063 5828 25026 4657 24990 6917 46581 10685 6515 27959 6837 14215 30053 5871 24088 6121 9023 6891 9708 16763 13879 5492 13847 6958 9915 8156 8242 15466 12044 12531 3672 8918 20342 21179 5994 4773 4164 7600 11129 3074 5342 13866 2518 36971 23038 2704 7789 30544 8337 7223 10159 4115 19662 2861 21898 11546 7776 26025 30376 2907 4086 4788 8093 6134 4527 17393 9347 8600 6513 5639 2957 7225 29434 12330 5132 6872 4889 5140 5241 8012 3039 4682 13453 7933 6296 3779 10169 5440 22018 7245 11767 4127 12731 4973 20513 7833 7485 20274 4207 8613 6171 6916 26616 6764 8100 4807 25835 5856 5589 24213 7561 7644 7311 6696 14730 8736 5781 7381 18572 11976 32135 17199 23883 9209 59390 35049 4843 21402 6424 6743 48023 19496 12563 3723 2727 51159 7801 25870 2550 3366 15921 2167 3197 6722 12171 19576 4329 6024 6966 22876 8242 34946 1938 5821 8186 6210 5387 8548 2960 9862 12081 4108 5857 17549 16946 7271 29904 8245 4818 22201 9182 9496 14774 8926 14007 13387 10644 32292 9113 6038 9131 4492 10582 2561 20513 6326 5956 4850 19983 6262 5380 6747 7650 1585 1832 22496 33187 5379 5146 23576 4702 6792 41017 14738 14919 14264 5861 4711 5631 7110 14844 1600 4938 7064 4421 5416 4583 5661 7867 5195 8526 11111 14051 14515 22150 7263 7712 16819 8414 5195 5808 20241 15275 19315 4987 3680 21526 5401 15711 13191 10928 17631 5210 5480 2920 10748 9740 5212 2874 11235 6145 17671 7932 4130 972 28352 15993 5582 4796 4979 23886 25009 24574 21673 17418 7000 7772 5742 7812 4728 8047 6202 1146 8730 4422 3937 6285 13791 28128 16742 4826 8173 24066 6686 8018 24229 5937 5229 6282 10401 6530 5398 12089
Last daily increment 1 4 8 10 19 4 6 4 9 13 91 5 6 8 29 5 6 7 127 13 23 5 13 45 17 9 8 108 5 9 22 5 15 28 8 18 4 4 24 9 21 24 8 12 3 9 1 5 16 17 6 4 6 34 35 9 8 3 14 10 1 18 12 0 58 30 4 11 13 5 21 7 5 16 4 45 14 5 54 26 9 4 5 4 14 7 41 16 10 4 14 0 6 11 9 2 9 3 3 14 3 1 7 24 12 2 6 1 4 15 6 13 4 7 12 6 4 7 20 1 13 2 3 10 6 4 2 34 9 5 21 9 8 14 3 15 2 11 7 64 14 66 7 6 6 99 64 2 16 14 11 25 35 3 1 2 78 9 11 13 5 14 1 5 7 13 24 2 7 15 22 15 20 2 9 19 4 9 39 1 6 24 5 18 29 43 5 29 8 6 45 3 6 38 12 10 10 12 22 14 20 4 10 10 7 32 4 13 1 57 24 7 6 8 6 6 43 31 5 11 17 13 2 95 9 20 27 1 1 3 15 11 0 22 20 1 3 5 4 18 13 14 15 24 6 10 7 4 17 6 14 17 33 30 39 10 2 26 2 13 14 25 40 10 7 1 10 9 5 2 8 4 15 6 5 1 23 16 10 7 7 58 38 15 22 20 13 4 6 6 13 1 6 3 12 12 5 4 15 46 11 8 13 11 6 7 21 15 11 6 8 9 10 13
Last week 17 30 48 61 89 33 53 14 53 86 421 28 39 38 104 36 51 50 702 70 138 42 65 252 78 101 34 616 39 64 135 19 81 167 33 86 37 20 71 51 134 166 30 51 57 44 20 51 98 111 34 19 27 197 160 39 34 20 61 74 9 114 78 9 323 157 14 54 106 43 116 28 39 110 23 284 85 40 190 173 22 36 35 36 103 81 226 89 66 20 58 7 36 72 48 18 59 27 31 94 15 8 51 83 82 20 27 29 20 82 41 67 28 52 54 58 39 58 124 22 72 12 26 81 48 16 28 203 40 37 139 87 44 86 23 65 27 58 73 376 74 378 49 81 39 652 333 20 74 65 60 201 230 29 5 13 427 69 75 51 19 87 26 33 24 117 123 23 38 92 166 104 137 6 48 166 39 51 211 17 60 127 36 85 137 156 39 170 74 25 201 53 46 223 68 77 120 57 111 64 115 37 52 55 43 196 30 68 7 325 83 41 58 31 14 15 255 243 32 45 111 63 32 536 87 98 162 31 22 45 67 102 6 101 95 12 27 19 34 92 66 57 103 186 51 62 53 31 107 33 52 48 212 149 196 77 30 199 16 72 39 109 222 62 23 9 46 33 32 14 53 22 72 22 32 5 94 81 24 27 46 334 183 64 104 133 63 33 17 19 49 30 39 5 61 67 32 46 74 281 116 37 55 70 34 61 150 49 50 48 68 51 59 58
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1910-1110-2410-12 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1211-01 -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --11-02 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-29 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2709-29 --10-0709-2706-14 -- -- -- --09-28 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-20 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- --11-0310-26 --10-1310-13 --10-18 --10-11 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-0111-01 --09-30 -- --09-2911-01 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-06 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-20 --10-21 -- -- -- -- --10-05 -- -- -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 --11-03 --10-11 --10-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 62 29 77 72 95 164 99 54 235 135 55 71 318 57 71 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 68 293 144 20 165 55 31 32 55 75 41 129 71 25 71 31 56 65 43 52 59 360 152 86 540 75 530 611 61 73 391 51 58 68 610 256 82 102 95 43 41 42 196 64 43 67 237 232 84 183 435 113 65 24 71 76 118 183 125 31 127 177 46 90 47 138 134 58 22 91 320 137 38 31 65 130
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 9 54 28 19 61 34 27 21 81 19 33 55 9 32 16 55 18 31 14 106 71 9 53 18 15 8 17 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 24 18 11 14 21 95 19 23 154 15 58 136 19 34 54 14 16 7 70 57 19 40 25 13 12 21 62 22 19 14 48 91 19 26 119 34 22 11 28 24 30 46 48 9 58 33 15 31 8 27 34 21 11 19 77 21 9 11 18 16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-17 to 2021-03-23

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-03-16 2849 4955 8451 8071 9351 9650 11452 3795 23149 29892 18040 4188 17510 8006 7809 8111 13235 21973 98645 6812 17586 9063 5828 25026 4657 24990 6917 46581 10685 6515 27959 6837 14215 30053 5871 24088 6121 9023 6891 9708 16763 13879 5492 13847 6958 9915 8156 8242 15466 12044 12531 3672 8918 20342 21179 5994 4773 4164 7600 11129 3074 5342 13866 2518 36971 23038 2704 7789 30544 8337 7223 10159 4115 19662 2861 21898 11546 7776 26025 30376 2907 4086 4788 8093 6134 4527 17393 9347 8600 6513 5639 2957 7225 29434 12330 5132 6872 4889 5140 5241 8012 3039 4682 13453 7933 6296 3779 10169 5440 22018 7245 11767 4127 12731 4973 20513 7833 7485 20274 4207 8613 6171 6916 26616 6764 8100 4807 25835 5856 5589 24213 7561 7644 7311 6696 14730 8736 5781 7381 18572 11976 32135 17199 23883 9209 59390 35049 4843 21402 6424 6743 48023 19496 12563 2727 51159 7801 25870 2550 3366 15921 2167 3197 6722 12171 19576 4329 6024 6966 22876 8242 34946 1938 5821 8186 6210 5387 8548 2960 9862 12081 4108 5857 17549 16946 7271 29904 8245 4818 22201 9182 9496 14774 8926 14007 13387 10644 32292 9113 6038 9131 4492 10582 2561 20513 6326 5956 4850 19983 6262 5380 6747 7650 1585 1832 22496 33187 5379 5146 23576 4702 6792 41017 14738 14919 14264 5861 4711 5631 7110 14844 1600 4938 7064 4421 5416 4583 5661 7867 5195 8526 11111 14051 14515 22150 7263 7712 16819 8414 5195 5808 20241 15275 19315 4987 3680 21526 5401 15711 13191 10928 17631 5210 5480 2920 10748 9740 5212 2874 11235 6145 17671 7932 4130 28352 15993 5582 4796 4979 23886 25009 24574 21673 17418 7000 7772 5742 7812 4728 8047 6202 8730 4422 3937 6285 13791 28128 16742 4826 8173 24066 6686 8018 24229 5937 5229 6282 10401 6530 5398 12089
2021-03-17 2851 4961 8457 8093 9363 9658 11480 3798 23160 29910 18100 4193 17540 8014 7837 8122 13260 21980 98780 6820 17600 9075 5837 25050 4670 25020 6919 46720 10690 6531 27990 6838 14230 30080 5875 24100 6127 9029 6898 9726 16780 13920 5498 13860 6981 9923 8159 8247 15480 12090 12540 3675 8926 20390 21210 6002 4773 4166 7615 11150 3081 5351 13880 2520 37020 23100 2707 7796 30570 8347 7234 10170 4120 19730 2872 21990 11580 7782 26070 30400 2911 4095 4793 8099 6148 4537 17420 9382 8610 6513 5649 2958 7231 29440 12340 5135 6885 4893 5147 5253 8016 3047 4690 13480 7954 6306 3781 10180 5446 22030 7252 11780 4132 12750 4982 20520 7840 7495 20300 4212 8626 6181 6921 26630 6786 8117 4823 25870 5868 5589 24250 7590 7648 7319 6699 14740 8741 5791 7397 18630 11990 32200 17210 23900 9227 59520 35130 4844 21420 6435 6753 48070 19520 12570 2731 51240 7825 25880 2556 3382 15930 2170 3199 6725 12190 19600 4332 6029 6986 22910 8249 34970 1940 5829 8212 6215 5394 8561 2960 9879 12120 4115 5873 17580 17000 7277 29920 8265 4823 22230 9186 9503 14800 8939 14030 13450 10660 32310 9146 6056 9138 4499 10590 2566 20580 6332 5965 4850 20040 6272 5385 6757 7656 1591 1834 22530 33250 5383 5157 23620 4710 6796 41070 14770 14940 14280 5868 4715 5638 7122 14870 1601 4955 7078 4423 5423 4592 5666 7884 5208 8530 11130 14070 14530 22170 7270 7717 16860 8420 5209 5816 20300 15310 19350 4996 3686 21570 5404 15720 13210 10950 17660 5213 5484 2928 10770 9746 5219 2877 11240 6149 17680 7939 4134 28370 16030 5590 4799 4989 23980 25050 24590 21690 17440 7017 7778 5752 7814 4737 8067 6220 8758 4433 3941 6302 13800 28220 16780 4831 8182 24150 6692 8027 24250 5948 5247 6299 10410 6533 5430 12100
2021-03-18 2853 4968 8465 8112 9379 9664 11510 3802 23190 29940 18120 4198 17560 8034 7858 8132 13310 22000 98900 6832 17620 9083 5850 25090 4686 25040 6922 46840 10710 6547 28020 6843 14240 30100 5878 24110 6134 9039 6907 9739 16800 13950 5504 13880 6998 9928 8163 8249 15490 12120 12560 3682 8940 20440 21270 6022 4777 4171 7635 11190 3085 5366 13890 2522 37070 23150 2710 7801 30600 8373 7252 10190 4131 19770 2893 22050 11610 7793 26110 30420 2914 4111 4797 8109 6152 4545 17450 9403 8624 6515 5661 2962 7238 29450 12340 5141 6905 4894 5164 5268 8019 3051 4697 13490 7978 6312 3784 10190 5450 22060 7261 11790 4141 12770 4997 20540 7852 7510 20320 4218 8652 6186 6929 26650 6806 8124 4837 25900 5891 5596 24280 7614 7656 7333 6700 14750 8752 5798 7419 18690 12000 32260 17240 23930 9241 59640 35200 4846 21430 6446 6769 48120 19540 12580 2751 51310 7841 25910 2556 3394 15950 2173 3199 6731 12220 19640 4338 6035 7001 22950 8262 35010 1942 5838 8237 6224 5398 8561 2964 9895 12160 4129 5908 17610 17030 7287 29950 8287 4834 22250 9193 9516 14830 8952 14060 13490 10680 32330 9169 6071 9147 4503 10610 2568 20630 6337 5968 4853 20090 6281 5385 6780 7660 1601 1835 22560 33310 5390 5173 23660 4712 6800 41150 14800 14960 14290 5875 4722 5649 7132 14900 1602 4981 7082 4431 5430 4598 5674 7902 5222 8539 11150 14100 14540 22200 7277 7721 16890 8428 5223 5828 20360 15340 19400 5007 3698 21600 5412 15740 13220 10970 17690 5220 5489 2932 10790 9758 5228 2881 11260 6159 17700 7945 4138 28390 16060 5596 4800 5002 24050 25090 24620 21720 17470 7041 7796 5756 7817 4743 8084 6236 8772 4448 3944 6316 13820 28290 16820 4833 8192 24200 6701 8039 24270 5963 5265 6308 10430 6543 5447 12110
2021-03-19 2855 4975 8469 8121 9388 9670 11520 3806 23210 29970 18160 4203 17580 8048 7880 8139 13340 22010 98990 6842 17640 9085 5861 25120 4699 25060 6927 46950 10720 6561 28050 6845 14250 30140 5885 24120 6140 9047 6916 9748 16820 13970 5509 13900 7012 9933 8166 8252 15510 12140 12570 3687 8951 20470 21310 6036 4781 4175 7652 11210 3089 5383 13900 2524 37120 23190 2713 7807 30630 8391 7269 10200 4139 19800 2909 22110 11620 7801 26150 30440 2917 4123 4801 8117 6160 4554 17480 9425 8634 6520 5675 2964 7245 29470 12340 5145 6921 4897 5175 5284 8019 3054 4705 13510 7999 6315 3787 10200 5453 22080 7268 11810 4147 12780 5009 20550 7861 7523 20350 4225 8672 6190 6936 26660 6825 8129 4845 25930 5908 5598 24310 7633 7659 7351 6703 14760 8761 5807 7434 18750 12010 32310 17250 23950 9249 59750 35260 4848 21440 6464 6782 48160 19560 12580 2763 51370 7856 25930 2556 3400 15960 2176 3199 6734 12240 19670 4342 6040 7018 22980 8273 35040 1944 5846 8263 6228 5403 8561 2967 9909 12180 4140 5933 17630 17060 7295 29960 8299 4843 22280 9198 9526 14850 8966 14070 13520 10690 32340 9182 6087 9154 4509 10620 2571 20660 6342 5974 4854 20150 6292 5386 6797 7666 1609 1837 22600 33350 5395 5182 23680 4717 6804 41230 14810 14970 14310 5885 4727 5659 7145 14920 1603 5002 7091 4436 5435 4600 5681 7919 5232 8548 11170 14120 14560 22220 7284 7726 16900 8435 5229 5838 20410 15360 19440 5016 3707 21640 5417 15750 13230 11000 17710 5227 5494 2936 10810 9767 5235 2885 11270 6167 17710 7950 4142 28410 16080 5603 4802 5013 24100 25130 24640 21740 17490 7061 7808 5761 7819 4750 8092 6247 8786 4460 3948 6327 13840 28340 16850 4837 8202 24250 6709 8049 24290 5976 5271 6317 10440 6550 5467 12120
2021-03-20 2857 4980 8474 8128 9412 9677 11530 3809 23230 29990 18200 4207 17580 8059 7889 8145 13370 22020 99070 6851 17660 9085 5871 25170 4708 25070 6931 47030 10730 6565 28060 6847 14260 30150 5889 24140 6146 9054 6926 9754 16830 13990 5515 13910 7022 9937 8170 8256 15520 12150 12580 3692 8960 20490 21350 6046 4783 4178 7667 11240 3090 5395 13910 2525 37160 23210 2716 7813 30650 8405 7284 10210 4146 19830 2922 22150 11630 7808 26170 30460 2920 4134 4805 8124 6171 4563 17520 9438 8642 6520 5678 2966 7251 29470 12350 5149 6935 4899 5185 5300 8021 3057 4712 13520 8011 6319 3789 10210 5456 22090 7275 11820 4153 12790 5019 20560 7869 7533 20370 4227 8689 6193 6941 26670 6839 8132 4849 25960 5923 5603 24330 7649 7660 7362 6705 14770 8767 5816 7444 18790 12020 32360 17270 23970 9257 59850 35300 4850 21460 6468 6794 48190 19580 12590 2772 51430 7866 25950 2559 3403 15970 2179 3199 6737 12250 19700 4346 6046 7033 23010 8289 35060 1946 5855 8289 6233 5409 8561 2968 9914 12200 4149 5954 17650 17090 7302 29980 8304 4849 22300 9203 9534 14870 8972 14090 13540 10690 32360 9195 6103 9161 4515 10630 2574 20690 6347 5980 4854 20190 6303 5390 6810 7669 1615 1839 22630 33380 5399 5188 23710 4722 6807 41280 14830 14980 14330 5886 4731 5667 7159 14930 1604 5020 7101 4440 5440 4603 5686 7935 5237 8555 11190 14140 14570 22230 7291 7730 16920 8441 5235 5846 20440 15380 19470 5020 3714 21670 5421 15760 13230 11020 17740 5237 5498 2937 10820 9774 5236 2888 11270 6172 17730 7952 4146 28420 16090 5607 4805 5023 24160 25150 24660 21760 17510 7078 7816 5763 7822 4755 8098 6256 8795 4471 3952 6334 13850 28390 16860 4841 8210 24270 6715 8058 24310 5987 5276 6329 10450 6557 5472 12120
2021-03-21 2859 4986 8474 8136 9419 9682 11540 3812 23240 30010 18250 4211 17590 8070 7902 8150 13390 22030 99140 6859 17680 9088 5881 25200 4716 25090 6931 47100 10740 6574 28080 6848 14270 30180 5894 24150 6152 9060 6932 9762 16850 14010 5520 13930 7035 9943 8173 8260 15530 12170 12590 3695 8969 20510 21380 6056 4783 4181 7682 11260 3091 5410 13920 2527 37210 23240 2719 7820 30670 8418 7292 10220 4152 19850 2934 22190 11650 7814 26210 30480 2924 4144 4810 8131 6182 4572 17540 9444 8652 6521 5691 2967 7257 29480 12350 5152 6949 4902 5194 5304 8022 3060 4719 13530 8029 6323 3790 10220 5458 22110 7282 11830 4159 12800 5029 20570 7877 7543 20390 4229 8705 6197 6947 26690 6856 8138 4855 25990 5936 5607 24350 7658 7664 7374 6707 14770 8774 5825 7454 18820 12030 32420 17280 23980 9261 59920 35350 4851 21470 6476 6804 48220 19610 12590 2779 51470 7876 25960 2563 3409 15980 2182 3199 6742 12260 19730 4350 6048 7033 23040 8299 35090 1947 5860 8314 6237 5415 8563 2970 9923 12210 4157 5973 17660 17110 7309 30000 8310 4856 22330 9211 9542 14890 8983 14100 13570 10700 32370 9206 6119 9168 4521 10640 2578 20710 6352 5987 4856 20220 6314 5393 6822 7672 1621 1841 22660 33420 5404 5196 23730 4729 6811 41320 14840 14990 14350 5891 4735 5675 7167 14940 1605 5038 7111 4443 5445 4607 5692 7951 5246 8569 11200 14170 14580 22250 7298 7735 16930 8448 5243 5854 20480 15390 19510 5027 3721 21700 5424 15770 13240 11040 17760 5251 5503 2938 10830 9780 5244 2891 11280 6177 17740 7956 4150 28440 16110 5610 4808 5033 24200 25180 24670 21780 17530 7095 7824 5763 7826 4766 8106 6267 8805 4482 3956 6337 13850 28430 16890 4845 8219 24300 6721 8067 24320 5998 5276 6334 10460 6560 5477 12130
2021-03-22 2861 4992 8477 8151 9431 9687 11550 3814 23260 30030 18300 4214 17600 8079 7923 8159 13410 22040 99290 6867 17700 9090 5890 25240 4732 25100 6934 47220 10750 6585 28110 6849 14290 30210 5902 24160 6158 9065 6945 9772 16880 14040 5526 13940 7054 9953 8175 8265 15550 12200 12600 3699 8977 20550 21420 6064 4793 4183 7695 11280 3093 5428 13930 2528 37260 23280 2722 7827 30690 8428 7314 10230 4157 19880 2945 22260 11660 7820 26270 30500 2927 4154 4814 8137 6195 4581 17580 9462 8667 6526 5697 2969 7262 29490 12360 5155 6961 4906 5202 5326 8022 3061 4727 13550 8044 6328 3792 10230 5461 22120 7288 11840 4164 12810 5038 20580 7884 7553 20410 4230 8719 6201 6952 26700 6870 8140 4860 26020 5948 5613 24380 7675 7666 7394 6710 14780 8779 5834 7465 18890 12040 32490 17290 24000 9270 60030 35410 4852 21480 6487 6814 48250 19630 12600 2785 51550 7893 25980 2568 3414 15990 2184 3199 6746 12270 19750 4353 6053 7050 23070 8322 35110 1948 5868 8340 6244 5421 8574 2972 9935 12230 4165 5990 17690 17160 7314 30010 8328 4862 22360 9221 9550 14920 8993 14110 13590 10710 32390 9228 6136 9174 4528 10650 2583 20740 6357 5995 4858 20280 6326 5398 6833 7679 1626 1843 22720 33460 5408 5205 23750 4736 6815 41420 14860 15010 14380 5897 4739 5682 7184 14970 1605 5055 7123 4446 5450 4609 5697 7967 5257 8574 11220 14200 14590 22260 7305 7739 16960 8453 5255 5862 20520 15410 19540 5043 3727 21730 5427 15780 13240 11060 17810 5259 5506 2942 10840 9786 5249 2893 11290 6181 17750 7959 4154 28450 16120 5617 4811 5042 24260 25200 24690 21790 17550 7111 7831 5767 7831 4773 8111 6282 8815 4492 3960 6345 13860 28500 16920 4850 8227 24340 6727 8075 24350 6007 5285 6343 10470 6573 5487 12140
2021-03-23 2863 4997 8488 8163 9445 9691 11560 3817 23270 30050 18350 4218 17610 8087 7948 8164 13430 22050 99410 6875 17720 9095 5898 25270 4748 25120 6942 47330 10760 6595 28130 6850 14300 30240 5908 24170 6163 9070 6962 9781 16900 14070 5531 13950 7058 9961 8178 8270 15560 12220 12610 3702 8984 20580 21450 6072 4799 4186 7709 11300 3095 5444 13940 2529 37310 23310 2724 7834 30710 8438 7332 10240 4162 19900 2955 22300 11670 7826 26310 30520 2931 4163 4819 8143 6208 4590 17620 9477 8676 6529 5709 2970 7268 29500 12360 5158 6973 4909 5209 5341 8024 3063 4734 13570 8054 6332 3798 10240 5466 22140 7295 11850 4169 12820 5046 20590 7891 7562 20430 4232 8732 6204 6957 26710 6874 8145 4865 26050 5960 5617 24400 7687 7675 7405 6712 14790 8784 5844 7472 18950 12050 32550 17310 24010 9277 60130 35470 4854 21490 6502 6824 48280 19660 12600 2790 51620 7901 25990 2573 3419 16010 2187 3201 6752 12280 19780 4356 6061 7062 23100 8338 35140 1949 5876 8366 6249 5427 8587 2973 9944 12260 4172 6006 17720 17190 7320 30030 8339 4867 22390 9227 9557 14960 9005 14120 13610 10720 32400 9239 6152 9180 4534 10650 2588 20780 6362 6003 4858 20330 6337 5403 6843 7686 1632 1845 22750 33500 5412 5212 23770 4743 6819 41500 14870 15030 14410 5899 4743 5689 7192 14980 1606 5071 7135 4449 5455 4614 5702 7983 5269 8584 11230 14220 14600 22280 7312 7744 16970 8459 5267 5869 20550 15440 19570 5054 3732 21760 5430 15790 13260 11080 17840 5266 5510 2943 10850 9791 5253 2896 11300 6185 17760 7964 4158 28470 16140 5624 4814 5051 24320 25230 24700 21810 17570 7126 7837 5772 7835 4781 8115 6286 8828 4503 3964 6352 13880 28540 16940 4855 8235 24350 6733 8084 24370 6017 5295 6350 10480 6580 5498 12150

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-17 to 2021-03-23

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-03-16 2849 4955 8451 8071 9351 9650 11452 3795 23149 29892 18040 4188 17510 8006 7809 8111 13235 21973 98645 6812 17586 9063 5828 25026 4657 24990 6917 46581 10685 6515 27959 6837 14215 30053 5871 24088 6121 9023 6891 9708 16763 13879 5492 13847 6958 9915 8156 8242 15466 12044 12531 3672 8918 20342 21179 5994 4773 4164 7600 11129 3074 5342 13866 2518 36971 23038 2704 7789 30544 8337 7223 10159 4115 19662 2861 21898 11546 7776 26025 30376 2907 4086 4788 8093 6134 4527 17393 9347 8600 6513 5639 2957 7225 29434 12330 5132 6872 4889 5140 5241 8012 3039 4682 13453 7933 6296 3779 10169 5440 22018 7245 11767 4127 12731 4973 20513 7833 7485 20274 4207 8613 6171 6916 26616 6764 8100 4807 25835 5856 5589 24213 7561 7644 7311 6696 14730 8736 5781 7381 18572 11976 32135 17199 23883 9209 59390 35049 4843 21402 6424 6743 48023 19496 12563 2727 51159 7801 25870 2550 3366 15921 2167 3197 6722 12171 19576 4329 6024 6966 22876 8242 34946 1938 5821 8186 6210 5387 8548 2960 9862 12081 4108 5857 17549 16946 7271 29904 8245 4818 22201 9182 9496 14774 8926 14007 13387 10644 32292 9113 6038 9131 4492 10582 2561 20513 6326 5956 4850 19983 6262 5380 6747 7650 1585 1832 22496 33187 5379 5146 23576 4702 6792 41017 14738 14919 14264 5861 4711 5631 7110 14844 1600 4938 7064 4421 5416 4583 5661 7867 5195 8526 11111 14051 14515 22150 7263 7712 16819 8414 5195 5808 20241 15275 19315 4987 3680 21526 5401 15711 13191 10928 17631 5210 5480 2920 10748 9740 5212 2874 11235 6145 17671 7932 4130 28352 15993 5582 4796 4979 23886 25009 24574 21673 17418 7000 7772 5742 7812 4728 8047 6202 8730 4422 3937 6285 13791 28128 16742 4826 8173 24066 6686 8018 24229 5937 5229 6282 10401 6530 5398 12089
2021-03-17 2851 4959 8457 8079 9362 9656 11460 3798 23160 29910 18110 4192 17520 8015 7829 8117 13250 21980 98770 6824 17610 9071 5841 25050 4668 25000 6922 46680 10690 6526 27980 6841 14230 30080 5875 24100 6128 9027 6902 9720 16790 13910 5497 13860 6970 9925 8158 8247 15480 12060 12540 3675 8922 20370 21210 6001 4779 4168 7611 11140 3076 5356 13880 2519 37020 23070 2707 7795 30560 8346 7241 10170 4121 19680 2868 21960 11570 7783 26060 30410 2911 4092 4793 8099 6148 4536 17430 9368 8609 6516 5647 2959 7231 29450 12340 5134 6878 4892 5145 5250 8016 3040 4689 13470 7944 6299 3783 10180 5443 22030 7251 11780 4132 12740 4983 20520 7838 7497 20290 4209 8625 6174 6920 26630 6771 8107 4811 25870 5865 5591 24230 7576 7649 7321 6699 14740 8741 5790 7391 18630 11990 32200 17210 23900 9216 59500 35110 4847 21410 6434 6753 48050 19520 12570 2730 51240 7813 25880 2557 3371 15930 2169 3203 6725 12190 19600 4331 6029 6989 22910 8256 34970 1939 5828 8212 6215 5394 8580 2961 9871 12110 4113 5874 17570 16980 7277 29930 8256 4823 22240 9189 9503 14810 8936 14020 13410 10650 32310 9128 6056 9138 4500 10590 2565 20550 6330 5965 4852 20040 6277 5386 6758 7656 1588 1835 22540 33220 5383 5152 23600 4712 6796 41110 14750 14940 14290 5864 4714 5637 7120 14860 1601 4956 7079 4423 5419 4588 5666 7882 5209 8533 11130 14080 14530 22160 7271 7716 16840 8418 5202 5817 20270 15310 19350 5003 3684 21560 5404 15720 13200 10950 17670 5219 5484 2923 10760 9745 5216 2877 11240 6149 17680 7937 4134 28370 16010 5587 4801 4985 23950 25040 24590 21690 17440 7009 7777 5747 7815 4736 8052 6210 8742 4434 3942 6296 13800 28180 16750 4830 8182 24090 6691 8028 24250 5946 5240 6290 10410 6537 5415 12100
2021-03-18 2852 4961 8464 8091 9375 9661 11480 3801 23180 29920 18160 4194 17530 8026 7846 8123 13260 21990 98870 6835 17630 9083 5849 25080 4679 25020 6927 46790 10700 6538 28000 6844 14230 30100 5876 24110 6131 9031 6906 9729 16800 13940 5500 13870 6976 9931 8160 8251 15500 12080 12540 3680 8926 20410 21230 6011 4781 4171 7622 11150 3077 5368 13890 2520 37070 23090 2710 7802 30580 8360 7258 10170 4128 19700 2875 21990 11590 7790 26070 30430 2912 4102 4796 8106 6159 4545 17450 9382 8617 6517 5655 2960 7237 29460 12340 5137 6891 4894 5152 5261 8020 3043 4696 13480 7954 6303 3786 10180 5445 22050 7257 11780 4138 12750 4992 20530 7845 7507 20300 4213 8641 6176 6925 26640 6776 8113 4820 25900 5874 5597 24250 7591 7658 7327 6701 14750 8746 5796 7407 18690 12000 32250 17220 23920 9221 59610 35160 4850 21420 6444 6764 48070 19540 12570 2737 51290 7824 25900 2560 3378 15940 2171 3206 6728 12210 19620 4335 6033 6999 22940 8268 34990 1941 5834 8240 6220 5399 8603 2964 9881 12130 4119 5892 17590 17000 7283 29960 8271 4827 22260 9196 9510 14840 8947 14030 13440 10660 32330 9140 6071 9144 4506 10600 2567 20590 6332 5970 4855 20080 6285 5389 6770 7659 1592 1837 22560 33250 5387 5157 23620 4716 6798 41180 14760 14950 14310 5868 4719 5645 7129 14880 1602 4972 7092 4426 5425 4592 5671 7897 5222 8539 11140 14100 14540 22170 7276 7720 16860 8422 5214 5826 20300 15330 19380 5015 3690 21580 5407 15730 13210 10960 17700 5223 5489 2926 10760 9750 5221 2880 11250 6154 17690 7941 4138 28380 16020 5589 4804 4991 24000 25060 24610 21710 17460 7014 7785 5750 7817 4740 8062 6216 8749 4442 3946 6306 13810 28210 16770 4833 8190 24100 6697 8036 24260 5953 5250 6295 10420 6542 5428 12120
2021-03-19 2855 4964 8469 8099 9381 9666 11490 3803 23190 29940 18210 4197 17540 8036 7863 8128 13270 21990 98960 6846 17650 9091 5857 25110 4689 25030 6933 46880 10710 6549 28020 6847 14240 30130 5881 24130 6133 9035 6910 9736 16810 13960 5505 13870 6982 9937 8161 8258 15510 12100 12550 3683 8929 20430 21260 6018 4784 4174 7628 11170 3079 5381 13900 2521 37120 23110 2713 7808 30590 8371 7274 10180 4134 19720 2883 22030 11600 7795 26090 30450 2914 4111 4804 8112 6171 4554 17470 9398 8624 6520 5666 2961 7243 29470 12350 5140 6901 4896 5157 5276 8022 3045 4703 13500 7964 6307 3789 10190 5446 22060 7263 11790 4143 12750 4999 20530 7850 7517 20310 4216 8656 6178 6929 26650 6783 8118 4826 25930 5883 5600 24270 7605 7664 7337 6703 14760 8750 5804 7420 18750 12010 32290 17220 23930 9224 59720 35210 4853 21430 6456 6774 48100 19570 12580 2741 51350 7832 25910 2564 3383 15950 2173 3209 6730 12230 19640 4338 6037 7014 22970 8280 35020 1942 5840 8267 6224 5404 8627 2967 9891 12150 4125 5908 17610 17010 7288 29990 8280 4831 22290 9200 9516 14860 8959 14040 13460 10670 32350 9149 6087 9152 4512 10610 2571 20620 6336 5976 4856 20140 6294 5393 6780 7664 1595 1839 22600 33270 5390 5160 23630 4722 6802 41260 14770 14960 14320 5873 4723 5656 7140 14890 1603 4987 7102 4429 5428 4594 5677 7912 5233 8546 11150 14120 14550 22180 7282 7724 16870 8425 5220 5834 20340 15360 19400 5025 3698 21610 5410 15740 13220 10980 17720 5226 5492 2929 10770 9753 5226 2883 11260 6158 17700 7943 4142 28390 16020 5591 4806 4997 24050 25090 24620 21730 17480 7019 7790 5752 7818 4744 8068 6222 8757 4451 3949 6315 13830 28230 16790 4835 8198 24120 6702 8045 24270 5960 5255 6299 10430 6547 5444 12130
2021-03-20 2856 4967 8474 8104 9395 9671 11500 3806 23200 29950 18260 4199 17550 8043 7875 8133 13280 22000 99040 6856 17660 9097 5864 25150 4698 25040 6937 46970 10720 6557 28030 6849 14250 30140 5884 24140 6136 9038 6916 9742 16820 13980 5509 13880 6988 9943 8163 8263 15530 12110 12550 3686 8932 20450 21280 6025 4785 4176 7633 11180 3080 5392 13900 2522 37160 23130 2716 7814 30610 8380 7289 10180 4139 19740 2889 22060 11610 7801 26100 30470 2915 4119 4807 8117 6184 4563 17490 9410 8631 6521 5669 2962 7248 29480 12350 5143 6907 4899 5163 5286 8025 3048 4709 13510 7971 6310 3791 10200 5448 22070 7268 11800 4148 12760 5006 20540 7855 7524 20320 4219 8669 6180 6933 26660 6786 8122 4831 25960 5891 5603 24290 7617 7669 7343 6706 14760 8754 5811 7429 18790 12030 32340 17230 23950 9228 59800 35250 4856 21440 6463 6783 48120 19590 12580 2745 51400 7840 25930 2569 3387 15960 2175 3212 6731 12240 19670 4341 6042 7025 22990 8293 35030 1943 5846 8290 6229 5409 8652 2968 9896 12170 4130 5922 17630 17030 7294 30020 8284 4835 22310 9205 9520 14880 8967 14050 13480 10680 32360 9159 6103 9157 4518 10620 2575 20650 6339 5983 4857 20170 6303 5397 6790 7667 1597 1841 22620 33280 5393 5162 23650 4728 6805 41310 14780 14970 14340 5875 4726 5660 7147 14900 1603 5000 7111 4431 5431 4597 5681 7924 5241 8550 11170 14140 14560 22190 7287 7728 16880 8428 5227 5841 20360 15380 19420 5030 3703 21630 5412 15750 13220 11000 17750 5232 5496 2930 10770 9757 5229 2885 11260 6161 17710 7944 4145 28400 16030 5592 4808 5000 24090 25110 24630 21740 17500 7025 7796 5754 7819 4748 8074 6224 8763 4459 3952 6321 13840 28250 16790 4838 8206 24130 6705 8052 24280 5964 5260 6306 10430 6552 5451 12140
2021-03-21 2858 4971 8477 8112 9398 9676 11510 3808 23210 29960 18310 4201 17560 8050 7890 8137 13290 22000 99130 6866 17680 9107 5870 25170 4706 25060 6941 47040 10730 6566 28050 6852 14260 30170 5887 24150 6139 9041 6921 9749 16830 14010 5513 13890 6996 9950 8165 8267 15540 12130 12550 3688 8934 20470 21310 6033 4788 4178 7637 11190 3081 5404 13910 2524 37200 23140 2718 7818 30620 8390 7301 10190 4143 19750 2895 22070 11620 7806 26130 30500 2917 4128 4810 8122 6197 4568 17510 9420 8639 6521 5681 2963 7254 29490 12350 5145 6914 4902 5169 5289 8027 3049 4714 13520 7980 6314 3793 10200 5448 22080 7272 11800 4153 12770 5013 20550 7861 7530 20330 4222 8681 6183 6937 26670 6790 8127 4837 25990 5899 5606 24310 7628 7677 7347 6708 14770 8758 5819 7437 18830 12040 32390 17240 23960 9231 59860 35290 4859 21450 6471 6792 48150 19610 12580 2748 51450 7847 25940 2574 3393 15970 2177 3215 6734 12260 19690 4345 6046 7027 23020 8304 35050 1944 5849 8312 6232 5415 8678 2969 9904 12190 4136 5935 17640 17040 7299 30040 8289 4838 22330 9210 9525 14900 8977 14060 13500 10680 32380 9169 6119 9159 4525 10620 2579 20670 6341 5989 4859 20210 6313 5401 6799 7671 1599 1842 22660 33300 5395 5166 23670 4735 6808 41370 14780 14980 14360 5878 4730 5667 7153 14910 1604 5013 7119 4433 5434 4600 5686 7938 5251 8556 11180 14160 14570 22190 7292 7731 16890 8432 5235 5848 20380 15400 19430 5036 3706 21650 5415 15760 13230 11010 17770 5240 5499 2931 10780 9760 5235 2888 11270 6165 17720 7947 4148 28410 16040 5593 4811 5004 24120 25130 24650 21750 17510 7030 7800 5756 7820 4754 8082 6228 8768 4467 3955 6323 13850 28270 16810 4840 8213 24140 6708 8058 24300 5969 5264 6310 10440 6556 5459 12150
2021-03-22 2860 4974 8481 8126 9411 9681 11520 3810 23220 29980 18360 4203 17570 8057 7912 8145 13300 22010 99240 6876 17700 9117 5877 25210 4720 25070 6946 47150 10730 6577 28070 6854 14270 30190 5893 24160 6142 9045 6929 9759 16850 14030 5517 13890 7004 9959 8167 8273 15550 12140 12560 3691 8937 20510 21330 6041 4791 4181 7644 11200 3082 5418 13920 2525 37240 23180 2721 7823 30640 8399 7319 10190 4147 19770 2901 22110 11630 7811 26160 30540 2919 4139 4815 8127 6211 4575 17530 9433 8650 6524 5687 2964 7259 29500 12360 5147 6925 4904 5176 5304 8031 3052 4721 13530 7989 6319 3797 10210 5449 22090 7277 11810 4157 12770 5019 20550 7866 7543 20340 4224 8696 6186 6940 26690 6794 8132 4844 26010 5907 5609 24330 7644 7687 7358 6711 14780 8763 5827 7449 18880 12050 32450 17250 23970 9234 59960 35330 4862 21460 6482 6801 48180 19630 12590 2755 51500 7858 25950 2579 3400 15980 2180 3218 6737 12270 19710 4348 6051 7037 23050 8319 35080 1945 5854 8339 6236 5421 8705 2970 9915 12210 4142 5948 17660 17060 7304 30070 8302 4842 22360 9216 9532 14930 8988 14080 13520 10690 32400 9183 6135 9164 4531 10630 2584 20700 6346 5996 4860 20260 6322 5406 6808 7675 1601 1844 22700 33330 5398 5172 23680 4741 6811 41440 14800 15000 14380 5882 4733 5674 7167 14920 1604 5032 7132 4435 5438 4603 5694 7952 5263 8559 11190 14190 14580 22200 7298 7735 16910 8436 5249 5855 20420 15430 19450 5048 3712 21680 5417 15770 13230 11030 17800 5246 5503 2934 10780 9765 5240 2891 11270 6168 17730 7950 4151 28420 16050 5596 4814 5008 24180 25150 24660 21770 17540 7035 7805 5759 7822 4759 8091 6238 8778 4476 3958 6330 13860 28300 16840 4843 8221 24160 6712 8067 24320 5976 5270 6315 10450 6564 5472 12160
2021-03-23 2861 4978 8490 8140 9416 9684 11530 3812 23230 29990 18410 4204 17580 8065 7932 8150 13310 22020 99350 6886 17720 9125 5884 25230 4733 25090 6952 47260 10740 6587 28090 6856 14270 30220 5898 24170 6144 9048 6938 9767 16870 14060 5522 13900 7010 9967 8168 8277 15570 12160 12560 3693 8940 20540 21360 6048 4795 4183 7650 11210 3083 5431 13930 2526 37290 23200 2724 7830 30650 8408 7334 10200 4151 19790 2904 22140 11640 7816 26180 30580 2921 4148 4818 8131 6225 4583 17560 9448 8658 6525 5698 2964 7265 29510 12360 5148 6933 4907 5183 5318 8034 3055 4726 13540 7996 6324 3801 10210 5452 22100 7281 11810 4162 12780 5026 20560 7871 7552 20350 4226 8709 6188 6944 26700 6797 8137 4851 26040 5915 5611 24350 7658 7697 7364 6713 14790 8766 5835 7458 18930 12060 32500 17260 23990 9239 60050 35390 4865 21470 6493 6811 48210 19650 12590 2759 51560 7867 25960 2585 3407 15990 2182 3222 6740 12290 19730 4351 6058 7043 23070 8331 35100 1946 5859 8366 6240 5427 8732 2971 9925 12230 4148 5963 17680 17080 7309 30100 8313 4845 22390 9222 9537 14960 8998 14090 13540 10700 32410 9192 6151 9175 4538 10640 2588 20740 6350 6003 4861 20310 6332 5411 6817 7680 1604 1846 22730 33350 5400 5175 23700 4748 6815 41500 14810 15010 14400 5884 4737 5680 7174 14940 1605 5048 7142 4437 5440 4606 5698 7967 5275 8563 11210 14210 14590 22210 7304 7738 16920 8441 5262 5862 20450 15450 19470 5058 3718 21710 5419 15780 13240 11050 17840 5249 5506 2936 10790 9769 5245 2893 11280 6171 17740 7953 4154 28430 16060 5598 4817 5011 24230 25180 24680 21780 17550 7040 7809 5762 7823 4765 8099 6241 8791 4484 3961 6339 13870 28320 16860 4846 8229 24180 6715 8074 24330 5982 5278 6321 10460 6569 5486 12170

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.