COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-03-21

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-27	12-30	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-23	12-26	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	12-28	2021-01-11	12-30	12-27	12-22	12-29	12-27	12-27	2021-01-03	2021-01-07	2021-01-01	11-15	12-28	12-21	10-29	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-13	12-27	12-28	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-30	12-30	12-27	11-03	12-21	12-27	12-25	12-08	12-27	12-21	12-21	2021-01-04	12-22	12-29	12-26	12-22	12-21	2021-01-02	12-21	12-21	12-30	12-26	12-27	12-28	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-30	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	2021-01-02	2021-02-25	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	12-27	12-24	12-29	12-24	12-21	11-02	12-26	10-31	12-27	12-29	12-28	12-21	12-25	12-22	12-25	12-14	12-23	2021-01-06	12-21	12-23	12-28	12-18	12-28	2021-01-04	12-27	12-26	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-22	12-13	12-27	12-14	12-29	12-21	12-29	12-27	12-28	12-24	12-25	12-21	2021-01-01	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-25	10-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-30	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-27	11-29	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-21	2021-01-04	12-30	2021-01-03	12-22	11-04	12-31	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-25	12-22	12-26	12-28	12-29	2021-01-03	11-04	12-28	12-08	12-27	10-25	12-26	12-21	2021-03-09	12-21	12-30	11-03	12-21	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-30	12-29	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-31	2021-01-06	12-29	2021-01-02	12-29	12-21	2021-01-06	2021-01-05	12-22	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-13	12-31	12-13	10-17	12-30	12-27	12-27	12-25	2021-01-26	12-28	12-29	12-29	2021-01-03	12-21	12-31	12-29	12-24	12-27	12-30	12-25	12-27	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-26	12-25	2021-01-04	12-22	11-09	12-24	12-21	12-20	2021-01-03	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	2021-01-03	12-25	10-31	12-22	12-28	12-21	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-25	12-28	12-30	12-23	12-30	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-23	12-21	12-21	12-12	12-23	12-30	12-21	12-22	12-28	12-22	12-26	12-21	10-28	12-28	12-27	12-18	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-25	12-20	12-13	12-28	12-07	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	2021-01-01	12-28	12-30	12-21	12-30	12-26	12-28
Peak daily increment	61	88	97	180	109	172	178	78	479	588	191	59	326	131	108	108	232	430	1251	74	158	66	58	158	49	485	141	441	228	107	525	155	310	317	107	505	93	188	62	123	123	141	98	255	87	149	171	173	301	90	265	52	200	250	283	60	90	71	68	244	53	95	284	35	367	289	38	184	599	151	69	189	72	246	32	249	187	118	323	539	60	53	76	160	110	52	225	102	165	147	108	54	143	590	271	95	74	54	89	73	125	54	38	122	80	92	56	180	90	449	120	220	59	200	57	398	175	103	340	101	109	135	120	477	101	155	47	444	57	115	451	139	84	134	236	275	148	71	100	296	197	190	312	429	107	379	287	104	444	71	113	730	272	200	89	37	377	90	420	29	46	297	49	62	148	118	362	79	105	63	123	85	726	23	50	159	105	51	42	59	124	122	41	55	277	158	122	225	90	44	126	127	109	154	118	201	104	174	621	83	81	173	52	187	40	133	139	56	96	199	80	86	60	175	36	26	163	451	42	82	404	65	130	243	210	244	169	98	107	101	69	180	27	42	85	82	95	79	110	80	67	103	114	245	294	456	131	152	219	93	57	112	177	132	194	66	42	202	105	322	189	181	125	55	108	46	140	328	91	44	138	123	369	138	49	11	558	153	92	107	85	258	324	452	387	229	77	139	117	160	65	154	87	28	83	42	67	115	216	219	263	83	149	432	106	139	375	106	115	96	173	71	69	186
Days since peak	84	81	84	90	84	103	90	88	85	88	159	84	88	83	69	81	84	89	82	84	84	77	73	79	126	83	90	143	89	84	84	98	84	83	86	90	85	89	81	81	84	138	90	84	86	103	84	90	90	76	89	82	85	89	90	78	90	90	81	85	84	83	82	89	89	81	83	84	84	90	86	90	90	78	24	158	84	104	85	84	87	82	87	90	139	85	141	84	82	83	90	86	89	86	97	88	74	90	88	83	93	83	76	84	85	90	84	89	90	84	90	84	89	90	90	90	89	84	84	89	89	98	84	97	82	90	82	84	83	87	86	90	79	83	84	89	83	83	86	144	90	84	84	82	81	84	83	84	84	84	112	84	84	89	90	76	81	77	89	137	80	90	90	90	89	86	89	85	83	82	77	137	83	103	84	147	85	90	12	90	81	138	90	76	84	90	81	82	90	84	83	84	84	80	74	82	78	82	90	74	75	89	83	90	84	83	98	80	98	155	81	84	84	86	54	83	82	82	77	90	80	82	87	84	81	86	84	90	89	90	83	85	86	76	89	132	87	90	91	77	83	84	89	90	97	83	85	90	77	86	141	89	83	90	140	90	88	89	84	90	104	86	83	81	88	81	76	84	90	88	90	90	99	88	81	90	89	83	89	85	90	144	83	84	93	86	90	90	89	90	84	86	91	98	83	104	89	84	84	82	82	89	89	83	84	89	84	79	83	81	90	81	85	83
Last total	2857	4974	8486	8109	9423	9686	11498	3804	23243	29963	18323	4204	17548	8054	7909	8135	13288	22033	99201	6865	17695	9115	5877	25248	4702	25046	6941	47116	10703	6586	28085	6850	14302	30216	5902	24144	6156	9043	6962	9763	16890	14022	5520	13884	7000	9970	8170	8276	15574	12131	12564	3697	8952	20458	21366	6029	4808	4179	7655	11190	3080	5444	13935	2522	37228	23194	2717	7830	30598	8378	7303	10190	4137	19776	2929	22233	11630	7794	26197	30514	2933	4118	4798	8118	6203	4604	17551	9429	8636	6550	5680	2966	7248	29509	12363	5145	6919	4903	5167	5317	8031	3055	4714	13526	7998	6306	3798	10182	5450	22112	7268	11825	4145	12774	5010	20565	7865	7539	20339	4224	8678	6178	6941	26667	6823	8128	4838	25941	5892	5597	24333	7636	7690	7381	6704	14793	8764	5829	7422	18831	12029	32439	17243	23951	9249	59985	35314	4865	21464	6457	6794	48156	19707	12597	3729	2738	51495	7876	25936	2572	3381	15973	2177	3211	6736	12233	19668	4341	6052	7043	22995	8296	35028	1944	5838	8287	6246	5420	8753	2973	9899	12173	4151	5925	17672	17103	7308	30087	8292	4841	22365	9206	9541	14943	9004	14084	13478	10701	32404	9167	6124	9158	4518	10625	2574	20669	6349	6004	4857	20237	6343	5419	6773	7661	1595	1847	22658	33374	5412	5210	23666	4734	6803	41536	14807	14987	14363	5875	4728	5663	7168	14918	1605	5021	7152	4435	5429	4602	5705	7924	5257	8574	11194	14206	14563	22205	7295	7731	16887	8450	5234	5866	20393	15419	19436	5050	3702	21689	5416	15749	13235	11042	17811	5254	5494	2928	10787	9802	5240	2885	11295	6172	17722	7955	4150	977	28419	16069	5606	4820	5020	24236	25147	24644	21750	17544	7036	7789	5756	7824	4755	8084	6235	1148	8788	4508	3966	6327	13846	28361	16836	4860	8231	24140	6722	8060	24335	5982	5252	6324	10463	6568	5447	12132
Last daily increment	4	4	4	11	23	8	12	2	21	18	50	4	8	13	14	7	9	16	120	13	24	15	4	39	12	10	6	75	4	15	21	1	18	18	7	12	8	1	13	12	22	35	5	8	10	12	5	6	29	23	5	4	12	24	32	7	10	7	17	12	3	8	13	0	73	37	3	10	11	17	19	9	3	17	3	95	20	6	36	31	7	4	5	6	13	23	24	14	5	7	9	3	8	18	6	4	13	3	6	14	5	3	7	20	17	3	2	1	1	27	7	22	6	16	7	13	4	17	10	5	14	2	6	9	14	3	8	23	11	1	26	24	11	17	2	8	7	10	10	56	11	59	8	14	8	108	44	8	13	7	9	26	46	8	2	1	73	20	12	4	5	16	2	2	6	9	21	2	8	11	21	8	12	3	4	13	12	12	37	4	6	15	12	15	23	31	13	28	10	7	34	6	7	31	9	12	26	7	16	17	17	7	5	1	4	26	3	9	2	50	20	7	4	2	2	3	23	30	8	10	24	9	1	109	19	11	18	2	3	9	8	17	2	20	17	3	7	5	6	9	20	7	6	26	11	10	8	10	13	11	11	15	28	30	25	14	5	36	3	9	9	26	45	18	5	1	6	18	4	5	6	4	14	6	2	1	6	23	10	3	8	51	42	15	14	25	7	7	4	3	7	9	8	0	13	7	10	15	15	62	24	9	13	17	8	10	21	8	5	14	8	9	8	12
Last week	9	22	44	47	91	40	52	14	99	77	373	20	45	56	130	30	53	67	675	66	132	54	62	265	62	65	32	640	24	80	148	17	99	191	38	72	39	25	94	63	145	167	36	48	45	63	16	39	126	104	41	28	40	149	221	44	42	20	69	72	7	120	81	4	314	188	17	51	69	46	101	35	27	126	70	377	99	22	227	162	35	35	14	28	81	84	199	98	46	41	53	9	29	83	42	15	57	15	27	90	20	17	39	99	76	11	24	11	12	103	28	70	22	52	48	57	35	60	87	18	77	9	28	63	64	32	34	150	45	13	139	84	52	81	11	76	35	58	48	322	67	371	57	70	46	685	330	25	79	46	59	155	241	37	6	15	403	85	77	33	20	66	11	19	22	73	114	13	36	92	138	66	102	8	27	116	40	41	240	14	40	113	48	85	153	198	44	212	54	28	209	26	50	207	89	82	109	67	131	66	105	30	37	55	20	187	27	55	8	311	105	46	32	19	16	21	203	216	38	75	111	45	13	612	77	89	128	15	18	34	73	86	4	102	107	15	13	24	48	78	75	62	98	177	54	62	37	24	85	43	52	75	185	175	157	74	24	189	17	50	58	139	222	54	21	9	49	71	33	13	68	31	66	28	26	6	90	93	34	31	48	405	178	85	101	147	50	22	20	17	39	38	37	5	69	95	34	46	67	275	103	41	71	85	41	49	127	60	34	47	69	46	59	55
Previous peak date	--	--	10-27	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	10-28	10-18	--	--	03-23	--	10-19	10-11	10-27	10-17	--	10-29	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-12	10-28	--	--	--	--	10-04	09-29	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	10-29	10-13	--	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-03	11-02	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-27	--	--	--	--	10-11	10-30	10-11	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	09-27	10-25	10-17	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-28	--	11-01	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-27	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	06-14	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	09-22	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	11-04	--	--	--	--	11-04	08-02	--	--	09-30	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	11-03	--	10-13	--	--	11-03	10-26	--	10-13	10-13	--	10-18	--	10-12	--	--	11-02	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-19	11-01	11-03	--	09-30	--	--	09-29	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	10-13	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-06	--	--	--	10-18	10-12	--	10-25	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	10-18	10-29	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	10-17	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-29	--	11-03	--	10-11	--	10-06
Previous peak daily increment			82		62							29			77	72			95		164	99	55	235		135		55					71	321					57	70	159						40			131			34	117		53			62				68		293	144	20							165			55									31					32						55	75					41	129	71				25			71	31	56				65							48		43		52				59									360	152		86	541	75					530					611	61								73					391				51				108					58	68			610			256				82		102			95	43		41	42		196		64			43		67				237	232	86		183			435	113						65								24	70		76							118				183	125		31		127					177	46			90								48			138								134	58		22						91					320				137				38		31		65		130
Low between peaks			28		26							8			36	24			9		54	28	19	62		34		27					21	81					19	33	55						9			32			16	55		18			31				14		106	71	9							53			18									15					8						17	17					11	25	23				12			22	7	24				18							13		11		14				21									95	19		23	154	15					58					136	19								34					54				14				20					16	7			70			57				19		40			25	13		12	21		62		22			19		14				48	91	19		26			119	34						22								11	28		24							30				46	48		9		58					33	15			31								8			27								34	21		11						19					77				21				9		11		18		16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-22 to 2021-03-28

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-03-21	2857	4974	8486	8109	9423	9686	11498	3804	23243	29963	18323	4204	17548	8054	7909	8135	13288	22033	99201	6865	17695	9115	5877	25248	4702	25046	6941	47116	10703	6586	28085	6850	14302	30216	5902	24144	6156	9043	6962	9763	16890	14022	5520	13884	7000	9970	8170	8276	15574	12131	12564	3697	8952	20458	21366	6029	4808	4179	7655	11190	3080	5444	13935	37228	23194	2717	7830	30598	8378	7303	10190	4137	19776	2929	22233	11630	7794	26197	30514	2933	4118	4798	8118	6203	4604	17551	9429	8636	6550	5680	2966	7248	29509	12363	5145	6919	4903	5167	5317	8031	3055	4714	13526	7998	6306	3798	10182	5450	22112	7268	11825	4145	12774	5010	20565	7865	7539	20339	4224	8678	6178	6941	26667	6823	8128	4838	25941	5892	5597	24333	7636	7690	7381	6704	14793	8764	5829	7422	18831	12029	32439	17243	23951	9249	59985	35314	4865	21464	6457	6794	48156	19707	12597	3729	2738	51495	7876	25936	2572	3381	15973	2177	3211	6736	12233	19668	4341	6052	7043	22995	8296	35028	1944	5838	8287	6246	5420	8753	2973	9899	12173	4151	5925	17672	17103	7308	30087	8292	4841	22365	9206	9541	14943	9004	14084	13478	10701	32404	9167	6124	9158	4518	10625	2574	20669	6349	6004	4857	20237	6343	5419	6773	7661	1595	1847	22658	33374	5412	5210	23666	4734	6803	41536	14807	14987	14363	5875	4728	5663	7168	14918	5021	7152	4435	5429	4602	5705	7924	5257	8574	11194	14206	14563	22205	7295	7731	16887	8450	5234	5866	20393	15419	19436	5050	3702	21689	5416	15749	13235	11042	17811	5254	5494	2928	10787	9802	5240	2885	11295	6172	17722	7955	4150	977	28419	16069	5606	4820	5020	24236	25147	24644	21750	17544	7036	7789	5756	7824	4755	8084	6235	8788	4508	3966	6327	13846	28361	16836	4860	8231	24140	6722	8060	24335	5982	5252	6324	10463	6568	5447	12132
2021-03-22	2859	4979	8497	8132	9427	9689	11510	3806	23260	29980	18380	4208	17560	8062	7925	8141	13310	22040	99400	6876	17720	9121	5886	25280	4720	25070	6946	47240	10710	6598	28110	6856	14310	30250	5905	24160	6162	9046	6962	9770	16910	14050	5525	13890	7014	9970	8175	8282	15590	12150	12570	3700	8960	20500	21380	6040	4808	4180	7663	11200	3083	5453	13940	37290	23230	2720	7838	30610	8394	7323	10200	4141	19810	2938	22240	11650	7798	26230	30570	2937	4125	4810	8123	6216	4615	17600	9450	8655	6550	5690	2967	7253	29520	12370	5148	6933	4907	5178	5334	8031	3057	4721	13540	8016	6317	3803	10190	5457	22130	7275	11840	4149	12790	5017	20580	7871	7548	20360	4227	8690	6186	6949	26680	6831	8133	4845	25970	5902	5606	24360	7655	7693	7386	6707	14800	8769	5837	7443	18910	12040	32510	17260	23970	9259	60110	35380	4868	21470	6475	6803	48220	19740	12600	3730	2745	51570	7880	25950	2578	3385	15990	2179	3214	6740	12250	19690	4344	6059	7056	23020	8323	35050	1945	5852	8310	6247	5427	8785	2973	9921	12190	4158	5939	17690	17110	7314	30120	8315	4845	22400	9224	9548	14990	9008	14100	13520	10710	32420	9187	6141	9170	4525	10640	2578	20720	6353	6012	4859	20290	6355	5425	6780	7665	1597	1849	22720	33430	5416	5210	23690	4742	6806	41620	14830	15020	14390	5885	4732	5669	7185	14940	5044	7166	4437	5432	4606	5712	7937	5268	8574	11210	14230	14570	22220	7303	7736	16930	8457	5248	5874	20440	15440	19460	5060	3707	21720	5419	15760	13240	11060	17850	5262	5498	2930	10790	9810	5247	2888	11300	6176	17730	7955	4154	978	28430	16090	5606	4824	5027	24300	25180	24660	21770	17560	7044	7793	5759	7827	4762	8086	6245	8806	4519	3971	6339	13860	28410	16880	4866	8241	24170	6729	8068	24370	5989	5259	6331	10480	6575	5470	12150
2021-03-23	2860	4989	8508	8150	9439	9692	11530	3810	23270	30010	18420	4213	17570	8075	7950	8145	13320	22050	99500	6893	17740	9126	5897	25320	4736	25100	6953	47350	10720	6606	28130	6862	14320	30280	5911	24170	6168	9051	6974	9780	16930	14070	5530	13910	7020	9980	8179	8285	15610	12190	12580	3703	8969	20530	21410	6052	4810	4183	7678	11220	3089	5465	13950	37360	23270	2724	7848	30650	8418	7339	10200	4148	19840	2952	22270	11660	7808	26270	30610	2937	4143	4815	8134	6228	4615	17640	9469	8666	6550	5705	2967	7262	29540	12370	5152	6946	4913	5187	5350	8033	3061	4732	13570	8032	6324	3810	10190	5464	22140	7286	11850	4157	12800	5030	20590	7879	7558	20390	4231	8710	6191	6963	26700	6831	8141	4851	26010	5922	5610	24390	7671	7697	7393	6711	14810	8776	5849	7456	18970	12060	32580	17270	23990	9268	60210	35450	4870	21480	6492	6816	48280	19760	12610	3732	2762	51650	7890	25960	2583	3388	16000	2183	3216	6746	12290	19730	4350	6066	7070	23060	8340	35090	1947	5863	8351	6250	5434	8789	2974	9935	12230	4165	5958	17720	17140	7319	30170	8328	4854	22420	9232	9556	15030	9017	14120	13550	10720	32440	9201	6160	9178	4533	10650	2584	20770	6358	6017	4860	20350	6360	5425	6803	7671	1602	1851	22760	33480	5417	5215	23720	4748	6813	41650	14850	15040	14410	5889	4738	5679	7197	14960	5062	7173	4441	5437	4611	5715	7960	5279	8583	11230	14250	14590	22230	7310	7741	16950	8464	5264	5879	20470	15470	19510	5067	3717	21760	5423	15780	13250	11090	17880	5270	5504	2937	10800	9812	5253	2892	11310	6181	17750	7958	4163	978	28450	16120	5610	4825	5034	24360	25230	24680	21790	17580	7060	7805	5764	7830	4774	8088	6250	8824	4524	3973	6348	13880	28460	16900	4867	8247	24180	6737	8076	24390	5995	5270	6342	10500	6580	5485	12180
2021-03-24	2862	4996	8518	8160	9453	9699	11540	3813	23280	30040	18470	4218	17570	8085	7968	8150	13330	22060	99600	6907	17760	9137	5907	25360	4748	25130	6958	47450	10730	6616	28150	6866	14330	30310	5917	24180	6176	9055	6985	9789	16960	14100	5534	13920	7031	9990	8182	8289	15630	12210	12590	3706	8977	20550	21460	6061	4811	4186	7688	11240	3093	5482	13960	37420	23310	2727	7856	30670	8438	7358	10210	4154	19870	2964	22310	11680	7816	26310	30630	2939	4156	4817	8142	6240	4620	17670	9489	8674	6553	5712	2968	7269	29550	12380	5156	6953	4917	5194	5369	8034	3064	4741	13590	8048	6327	3814	10200	5467	22160	7294	11850	4163	12800	5040	20600	7886	7567	20420	4234	8725	6194	6973	26710	6831	8146	4857	26050	5936	5611	24420	7690	7700	7405	6714	14820	8782	5858	7468	19020	12070	32640	17280	24000	9274	60330	35510	4875	21490	6501	6827	48320	19790	12610	3733	2774	51710	7903	25970	2588	3389	16010	2186	3218	6749	12320	19760	4355	6072	7089	23100	8353	35120	1949	5868	8383	6254	5441	8806	2977	9944	12250	4172	5971	17740	17170	7324	30220	8346	4861	22450	9240	9563	15090	9031	14140	13580	10720	32460	9214	6178	9184	4540	10660	2589	20810	6361	6024	4862	20400	6368	5428	6819	7677	1605	1852	22800	33520	5420	5223	23740	4756	6818	41700	14870	15060	14440	5893	4743	5687	7209	14970	5075	7183	4444	5441	4616	5719	7978	5291	8588	11240	14280	14600	22240	7317	7746	16970	8472	5272	5886	20500	15500	19550	5081	3725	21790	5427	15790	13260	11110	17920	5278	5509	2941	10810	9816	5258	2896	11320	6185	17760	7961	4169	979	28470	16140	5613	4828	5040	24430	25260	24700	21810	17600	7072	7813	5768	7833	4783	8091	6258	8837	4533	3977	6355	13890	28500	16920	4870	8255	24200	6744	8084	24420	6002	5277	6352	10520	6584	5505	12200
2021-03-25	2863	5001	8526	8171	9465	9705	11560	3815	23300	30060	18520	4221	17580	8094	7987	8157	13340	22070	99800	6919	17790	9148	5916	25390	4759	25150	6963	47560	10740	6627	28180	6870	14350	30340	5920	24200	6182	9058	6993	9804	16980	14130	5539	13930	7035	10000	8185	8294	15640	12240	12600	3709	8985	20570	21480	6072	4816	4189	7697	11250	3097	5497	13970	37480	23350	2730	7864	30690	8454	7370	10220	4158	19900	2975	22370	11700	7821	26340	30660	2942	4166	4818	8148	6253	4628	17700	9501	8685	6556	5721	2969	7275	29570	12390	5159	6963	4922	5201	5382	8037	3067	4749	13590	8065	6329	3817	10200	5471	22170	7301	11860	4168	12810	5049	20610	7892	7576	20440	4237	8739	6197	6982	26730	6835	8153	4863	26080	5949	5615	24450	7704	7708	7412	6717	14830	8787	5868	7477	19070	12080	32690	17290	24020	9285	60430	35560	4879	21500	6505	6837	48350	19820	12610	3734	2782	51770	7913	25980	2593	3390	16020	2189	3221	6753	12340	19790	4359	6076	7105	23130	8364	35140	1950	5873	8412	6261	5448	8829	2980	9954	12280	4179	5986	17760	17200	7330	30250	8356	4866	22480	9246	9570	15110	9044	14160	13600	10730	32480	9223	6195	9189	4547	10670	2594	20840	6367	6031	4863	20450	6378	5432	6830	7681	1607	1854	22830	33550	5423	5235	23760	4763	6822	41760	14880	15070	14460	5896	4747	5694	7220	14990	5093	7195	4446	5445	4620	5725	7994	5301	8595	11260	14310	14610	22260	7324	7751	16980	8478	5280	5893	20530	15520	19580	5091	3731	21820	5430	15810	13270	11130	17950	5284	5513	2944	10810	9821	5264	2899	11330	6189	17780	7962	4174	980	28490	16150	5614	4831	5047	24490	25280	24710	21820	17630	7082	7819	5771	7836	4791	8093	6261	8851	4542	3981	6368	13900	28540	16950	4874	8264	24220	6751	8092	24430	6008	5283	6360	10530	6591	5514	12220
2021-03-26	2865	5007	8532	8178	9477	9713	11570	3818	23310	30070	18570	4223	17590	8103	8008	8160	13360	22080	99800	6930	17810	9154	5925	25430	4765	25170	6968	47660	10750	6637	28200	6872	14360	30370	5926	24210	6188	9062	7002	9812	17000	14150	5544	13940	7043	10000	8190	8300	15660	12260	12610	3712	8992	20590	21500	6075	4821	4192	7705	11260	3100	5512	13990	37540	23390	2733	7870	30710	8470	7383	10220	4163	19920	2985	22420	11720	7827	26360	30680	2944	4176	4823	8154	6266	4636	17730	9522	8690	6559	5730	2970	7280	29580	12390	5162	6970	4926	5205	5393	8038	3069	4756	13610	8082	6332	3823	10200	5473	22180	7308	11870	4173	12820	5057	20620	7898	7585	20460	4240	8752	6199	6990	26740	6840	8161	4871	26110	5960	5617	24470	7718	7709	7422	6719	14830	8793	5876	7489	19130	12090	32750	17310	24030	9288	60540	35610	4882	21510	6514	6847	48380	19850	12620	3735	2791	51830	7926	25990	2599	3394	16040	2191	3224	6755	12370	19820	4362	6080	7116	23160	8371	35160	1951	5878	8439	6267	5455	8854	2981	9964	12300	4186	5998	17790	17220	7336	30290	8363	4871	22510	9250	9577	15140	9058	14170	13620	10740	32500	9232	6212	9196	4554	10680	2598	20870	6374	6039	4864	20500	6389	5436	6841	7685	1610	1857	22860	33600	5427	5247	23770	4770	6825	41830	14900	15090	14470	5900	4751	5701	7234	15000	5105	7207	4449	5448	4624	5730	8009	5310	8603	11270	14330	14620	22270	7330	7755	17000	8485	5288	5901	20560	15550	19610	5100	3736	21850	5433	15820	13280	11150	17980	5292	5516	2948	10820	9827	5272	2901	11330	6193	17790	7968	4179	981	28500	16170	5616	4834	5053	24560	25310	24730	21840	17650	7091	7824	5773	7838	4799	8095	6270	8861	4552	3985	6377	13910	28570	16960	4878	8272	24240	6758	8100	24450	6015	5284	6368	10550	6596	5529	12240
2021-03-27	2866	5012	8535	8181	9489	9717	11580	3820	23320	30090	18630	4225	17600	8111	8021	8163	13360	22090	99900	6941	17830	9157	5934	25460	4769	25190	6973	47740	10750	6648	28220	6872	14370	30390	5927	24220	6193	9065	7008	9815	17010	14170	5549	13950	7049	10010	8191	8305	15680	12280	12610	3715	8999	20600	21530	6081	4824	4195	7712	11270	3103	5536	13990	37600	23400	2735	7877	30730	8484	7396	10230	4166	19930	2994	22450	11720	7831	26390	30700	2948	4184	4824	8160	6279	4646	17750	9530	8695	6565	5734	2971	7286	29590	12400	5164	6970	4929	5207	5402	8039	3071	4763	13620	8090	6332	3826	10210	5474	22200	7314	11880	4177	12820	5065	20630	7904	7594	20480	4243	8765	6199	6997	26750	6846	8163	4873	26140	5970	5618	24490	7725	7709	7428	6722	14840	8798	5885	7493	19160	12110	32790	17310	24050	9296	60620	35650	4883	21520	6519	6856	48410	19890	12630	3736	2797	51880	7936	25990	2604	3394	16050	2194	3226	6755	12380	19840	4365	6085	7127	23180	8381	35180	1952	5882	8464	6269	5462	8882	2982	9966	12320	4192	6006	17800	17230	7341	30320	8367	4876	22540	9253	9584	15160	9068	14170	13630	10750	32520	9237	6229	9198	4561	10680	2603	20890	6376	6046	4865	20520	6401	5441	6849	7688	1612	1859	22880	33620	5431	5252	23790	4777	6829	41900	14900	15100	14480	5901	4755	5707	7241	15010	5115	7220	4451	5450	4628	5736	8023	5319	8608	11290	14350	14630	22280	7337	7760	17000	8491	5292	5909	20580	15580	19640	5106	3741	21870	5435	15830	13280	11170	18000	5299	5520	2950	10820	9833	5274	2904	11340	6197	17800	7970	4183	981	28520	16180	5620	4837	5060	24610	25330	24740	21840	17670	7100	7829	5774	7841	4806	8097	6273	8866	4563	3989	6378	13920	28600	16970	4883	8281	24240	6764	8107	24460	6022	5284	6376	10560	6603	5531	12260
2021-03-28	2868	5016	8539	8190	9504	9724	11590	3822	23330	30110	18680	4228	17600	8119	8033	8168	13370	22100	100000	6951	17850	9169	5943	25500	4777	25210	6977	47800	10760	6659	28240	6873	14380	30410	5933	24230	6200	9068	7016	9824	17030	14200	5554	13960	7057	10020	8195	8311	15700	12300	12620	3718	9006	20620	21550	6086	4830	4197	7724	11280	3106	5545	14000	37650	23430	2738	7884	30740	8498	7410	10230	4170	19950	3004	22510	11740	7836	26420	30730	2951	4191	4828	8165	6293	4657	17780	9540	8701	6570	5743	2972	7291	29600	12400	5167	6980	4933	5212	5412	8042	3074	4770	13630	8104	6335	3827	10210	5475	22210	7320	11890	4181	12840	5072	20640	7910	7602	20490	4246	8777	6200	7005	26760	6853	8166	4879	26160	5980	5621	24510	7741	7712	7440	6724	14850	8803	5893	7502	19210	12120	32850	17320	24060	9302	60710	35700	4889	21530	6524	6864	48430	19920	12630	3737	2804	51940	7951	26000	2610	3395	16060	2196	3229	6760	12400	19860	4368	6091	7135	23210	8389	35200	1954	5885	8488	6278	5469	8911	2985	9972	12340	4199	6018	17820	17260	7347	30350	8375	4880	22570	9259	9591	15190	9078	14190	13650	10750	32530	9250	6246	9203	4567	10690	2607	20910	6378	6054	4867	20560	6413	5447	6857	7692	1614	1862	22900	33650	5435	5260	23800	4785	6832	41980	14920	15110	14500	5904	4758	5713	7247	15020	5130	7233	4453	5453	4632	5742	8037	5334	8615	11300	14380	14640	22290	7343	7764	17020	8498	5301	5917	20610	15600	19670	5117	3746	21900	5438	15840	13290	11190	18040	5313	5523	2952	10830	9839	5279	2907	11350	6200	17810	7975	4188	981	28530	16190	5625	4841	5067	24650	25360	24750	21860	17680	7108	7833	5776	7843	4813	8099	6279	8877	4574	3994	6387	13930	28650	16990	4888	8290	24250	6771	8115	24480	6029	5289	6383	10570	6609	5535	12270

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-22 to 2021-03-28

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-03-21	2857	4974	8486	8109	9423	9686	11498	3804	23243	29963	18323	4204	17548	8054	7909	8135	13288	22033	99201	6865	17695	9115	5877	25248	4702	25046	6941	47116	10703	6586	28085	6850	14302	30216	5902	24144	6156	9043	6962	9763	16890	14022	5520	13884	7000	9970	8170	8276	15574	12131	12564	3697	8952	20458	21366	6029	4808	4179	7655	11190	3080	5444	13935	37228	23194	2717	7830	30598	8378	7303	10190	4137	19776	2929	22233	11630	7794	26197	30514	2933	4118	4798	8118	6203	4604	17551	9429	8636	6550	5680	2966	7248	29509	12363	5145	6919	4903	5167	5317	8031	3055	4714	13526	7998	6306	3798	10182	5450	22112	7268	11825	4145	12774	5010	20565	7865	7539	20339	4224	8678	6178	6941	26667	6823	8128	4838	25941	5892	5597	24333	7636	7690	7381	6704	14793	8764	5829	7422	18831	12029	32439	17243	23951	9249	59985	35314	4865	21464	6457	6794	48156	19707	12597	3729	2738	51495	7876	25936	2572	3381	15973	2177	3211	6736	12233	19668	4341	6052	7043	22995	8296	35028	1944	5838	8287	6246	5420	8753	2973	9899	12173	4151	5925	17672	17103	7308	30087	8292	4841	22365	9206	9541	14943	9004	14084	13478	10701	32404	9167	6124	9158	4518	10625	2574	20669	6349	6004	4857	20237	6343	5419	6773	7661	1595	1847	22658	33374	5412	5210	23666	4734	6803	41536	14807	14987	14363	5875	4728	5663	7168	14918	5021	7152	4435	5429	4602	5705	7924	5257	8574	11194	14206	14563	22205	7295	7731	16887	8450	5234	5866	20393	15419	19436	5050	3702	21689	5416	15749	13235	11042	17811	5254	5494	2928	10787	9802	5240	2885	11295	6172	17722	7955	4150	977	28419	16069	5606	4820	5020	24236	25147	24644	21750	17544	7036	7789	5756	7824	4755	8084	6235	8788	4508	3966	6327	13846	28361	16836	4860	8231	24140	6722	8060	24335	5982	5252	6324	10463	6568	5447	12132
2021-03-22	2860	4978	8493	8123	9438	9692	11510	3806	23260	29980	18380	4206	17560	8062	7929	8144	13300	22040	99340	6876	17720	9123	5887	25290	4716	25060	6947	47230	10710	6600	28110	6853	14320	30250	5909	24160	6163	9046	6972	9774	16920	14050	5525	13890	7011	9980	8174	8283	15600	12150	12570	3700	8957	20490	21400	6037	4816	4183	7665	11200	3082	5461	13950	37280	23230	2720	7839	30610	8387	7323	10200	4142	19800	2934	22300	11650	7799	26230	30560	2937	4126	4805	8123	6217	4620	17580	9448	8646	6556	5686	2967	7255	29520	12370	5148	6932	4906	5173	5340	8033	3057	4722	13540	8010	6311	3802	10190	5451	22130	7273	11840	4150	12780	5017	20580	7871	7558	20350	4227	8691	6180	6945	26680	6833	8131	4844	25970	5901	5602	24360	7654	7698	7397	6707	14800	8770	5839	7433	18890	12040	32520	17250	23970	9256	60120	35370	4869	21480	6468	6803	48180	19740	12600	3730	2740	51570	7891	25950	2577	3385	15990	2180	3214	6739	12240	19690	4344	6058	7060	23020	8313	35050	1945	5843	8311	6252	5428	8786	2975	9909	12190	4159	5940	17700	17130	7315	30120	8307	4845	22400	9215	9550	14980	9015	14100	13500	10710	32420	9181	6140	9166	4525	10630	2579	20700	6353	6012	4859	20300	6356	5425	6780	7665	1597	1850	22710	33420	5418	5217	23690	4742	6806	41640	14820	15000	14390	5880	4732	5670	7184	14940	5043	7172	4438	5434	4605	5715	7937	5271	8578	11210	14240	14570	22220	7303	7737	16910	8457	5245	5876	20430	15450	19470	5067	3708	21720	5419	15760	13240	11060	17850	5264	5498	2931	10790	9811	5245	2888	11300	6175	17740	7959	4154	978	28430	16080	5612	4825	5027	24300	25180	24660	21770	17570	7044	7794	5759	7828	4761	8089	6246	8798	4517	3972	6338	13860	28410	16860	4867	8241	24160	6729	8075	24360	5992	5259	6333	10470	6578	5458	12140
2021-03-23	2861	4984	8500	8134	9448	9697	11520	3810	23280	30000	18440	4209	17560	8070	7951	8148	13310	22050	99450	6888	17740	9129	5897	25330	4729	25080	6953	47340	10720	6611	28130	6856	14320	30280	5915	24170	6166	9049	6983	9782	16940	14080	5530	13900	7017	9990	8176	8289	15610	12170	12570	3703	8961	20530	21420	6045	4821	4186	7677	11220	3083	5477	13960	37340	23250	2722	7848	30630	8397	7341	10200	4148	19810	2943	22340	11660	7805	26260	30600	2939	4136	4810	8129	6232	4627	17620	9465	8656	6558	5699	2968	7261	29540	12370	5150	6943	4910	5179	5356	8036	3059	4728	13560	8020	6316	3807	10190	5455	22140	7280	11840	4156	12790	5026	20580	7877	7568	20370	4230	8704	6183	6950	26690	6837	8137	4849	26010	5911	5605	24380	7666	7706	7406	6710	14810	8775	5850	7443	18950	12060	32580	17260	23990	9260	60220	35430	4872	21480	6481	6814	48210	19770	12610	3731	2744	51650	7900	25970	2584	3389	16000	2183	3218	6743	12260	19720	4348	6064	7073	23050	8329	35070	1946	5851	8339	6256	5435	8815	2976	9919	12210	4165	5954	17720	17160	7320	30160	8317	4849	22430	9222	9555	15020	9025	14110	13520	10720	32440	9192	6159	9174	4533	10640	2585	20740	6356	6020	4860	20360	6366	5429	6791	7670	1599	1853	22750	33440	5420	5221	23710	4750	6810	41710	14840	15020	14410	5882	4736	5676	7194	14950	5059	7187	4441	5437	4609	5718	7955	5284	8587	11220	14260	14580	22230	7309	7743	16930	8460	5257	5882	20460	15470	19490	5078	3713	21750	5421	15770	13250	11080	17890	5271	5501	2934	10800	9813	5251	2891	11310	6178	17750	7962	4158	979	28450	16090	5617	4829	5032	24360	25210	24670	21790	17590	7052	7799	5762	7831	4770	8093	6250	8811	4526	3976	6345	13880	28450	16880	4871	8251	24170	6734	8083	24380	6001	5269	6340	10480	6585	5470	12160
2021-03-24	2863	4988	8506	8142	9458	9702	11530	3812	23290	30020	18500	4211	17570	8077	7969	8153	13320	22060	99550	6900	17760	9136	5910	25370	4740	25090	6957	47440	10730	6620	28150	6859	14330	30300	5921	24190	6172	9052	6994	9791	16960	14110	5534	13910	7027	10000	8178	8296	15630	12180	12580	3706	8964	20550	21460	6051	4825	4189	7685	11230	3084	5495	13970	37380	23280	2725	7855	30650	8405	7360	10210	4153	19840	2952	22390	11680	7809	26290	30620	2942	4144	4812	8135	6247	4636	17640	9483	8663	6564	5705	2969	7267	29550	12380	5153	6952	4914	5184	5374	8038	3061	4735	13570	8030	6319	3811	10190	5457	22150	7284	11850	4161	12800	5033	20590	7883	7578	20380	4233	8716	6185	6955	26710	6844	8141	4854	26040	5919	5606	24400	7679	7711	7419	6713	14820	8780	5860	7455	19000	12070	32640	17270	24000	9264	60350	35480	4876	21490	6489	6825	48240	19800	12610	3732	2748	51710	7910	25980	2591	3392	16010	2185	3222	6745	12280	19740	4352	6069	7093	23080	8342	35090	1947	5855	8365	6261	5441	8844	2978	9927	12230	4172	5966	17740	17180	7326	30190	8332	4852	22460	9229	9562	15060	9037	14120	13540	10730	32460	9203	6177	9180	4540	10650	2590	20780	6359	6028	4863	20410	6377	5434	6801	7674	1601	1856	22790	33460	5422	5227	23720	4758	6814	41800	14850	15040	14440	5886	4740	5683	7203	14970	5073	7205	4443	5439	4612	5726	7969	5296	8593	11240	14290	14590	22230	7315	7748	16940	8464	5265	5890	20490	15500	19510	5092	3719	21790	5424	15780	13260	11110	17930	5278	5505	2937	10800	9817	5256	2894	11320	6181	17760	7965	4163	980	28460	16100	5620	4832	5038	24430	25240	24690	21800	17610	7060	7803	5765	7833	4777	8098	6258	8819	4536	3981	6351	13890	28470	16900	4874	8260	24190	6739	8091	24400	6007	5276	6347	10490	6590	5485	12170
2021-03-25	2864	4992	8511	8150	9467	9708	11540	3815	23300	30030	18550	4213	17570	8084	7987	8158	13320	22060	99660	6910	17780	9143	5919	25410	4751	25110	6962	47540	10730	6632	28170	6862	14340	30330	5924	24200	6175	9056	7004	9804	16990	14130	5538	13920	7033	10010	8180	8302	15640	12200	12580	3710	8966	20570	21480	6058	4830	4191	7691	11240	3085	5512	13980	37430	23310	2728	7862	30660	8411	7375	10210	4158	19860	2964	22440	11690	7814	26310	30650	2945	4151	4813	8140	6262	4648	17670	9496	8672	6568	5713	2969	7272	29560	12380	5154	6964	4917	5190	5388	8042	3064	4741	13580	8040	6321	3814	10200	5460	22160	7289	11850	4166	12810	5040	20600	7889	7586	20390	4236	8728	6187	6959	26720	6851	8147	4859	26070	5927	5609	24420	7692	7720	7427	6716	14830	8784	5869	7464	19050	12080	32690	17280	24020	9269	60450	35530	4879	21500	6496	6834	48260	19820	12620	3733	2750	51770	7922	25990	2598	3395	16020	2188	3225	6748	12290	19760	4355	6074	7107	23110	8354	35110	1948	5859	8391	6266	5448	8877	2981	9935	12250	4178	5979	17760	17200	7332	30220	8340	4856	22490	9235	9569	15080	9050	14140	13560	10730	32480	9212	6195	9186	4548	10660	2595	20810	6364	6036	4865	20460	6389	5439	6809	7677	1603	1858	22820	33480	5427	5236	23740	4766	6818	41880	14860	15050	14460	5887	4743	5689	7213	14980	5089	7219	4446	5442	4615	5732	7983	5307	8601	11250	14320	14600	22240	7321	7752	16960	8469	5272	5897	20520	15530	19530	5103	3724	21810	5427	15790	13270	11130	17960	5284	5508	2939	10810	9820	5261	2896	11320	6184	17770	7966	4167	981	28460	16110	5622	4836	5045	24480	25260	24700	21820	17630	7066	7806	5767	7834	4783	8103	6260	8828	4546	3985	6363	13900	28500	16910	4878	8269	24210	6744	8099	24400	6014	5284	6351	10500	6597	5494	12180
2021-03-26	2866	4997	8515	8158	9474	9714	11550	3817	23320	30040	18600	4214	17580	8091	8007	8161	13330	22070	99760	6922	17800	9149	5926	25440	4760	25120	6967	47640	10740	6647	28190	6864	14350	30360	5929	24210	6179	9059	7014	9810	17000	14160	5543	13930	7041	10020	8183	8308	15660	12210	12590	3712	8969	20600	21510	6065	4834	4193	7697	11250	3086	5529	14000	37470	23330	2730	7867	30680	8418	7391	10220	4162	19880	2973	22480	11710	7818	26340	30670	2948	4159	4819	8144	6277	4658	17690	9515	8678	6570	5723	2970	7277	29570	12390	5156	6972	4921	5194	5398	8044	3066	4747	13600	8051	6325	3819	10200	5462	22170	7293	11860	4170	12810	5045	20600	7894	7594	20400	4239	8742	6189	6963	26730	6858	8153	4866	26100	5934	5611	24440	7705	7725	7435	6719	14840	8789	5879	7477	19100	12090	32740	17280	24030	9271	60570	35580	4882	21510	6506	6843	48290	19850	12620	3733	2753	51830	7934	26000	2604	3400	16040	2190	3229	6750	12310	19780	4358	6078	7116	23130	8364	35130	1949	5863	8416	6271	5454	8909	2981	9944	12270	4184	5989	17780	17220	7337	30250	8347	4859	22530	9240	9574	15100	9062	14150	13580	10740	32500	9223	6213	9193	4555	10660	2600	20840	6369	6044	4866	20510	6401	5445	6817	7681	1605	1861	22850	33500	5429	5243	23760	4774	6821	41950	14870	15060	14480	5891	4747	5696	7226	14990	5103	7232	4448	5443	4618	5738	7998	5318	8608	11270	14350	14610	22250	7327	7756	16970	8474	5280	5905	20550	15550	19550	5113	3729	21850	5429	15800	13280	11140	17990	5291	5512	2942	10810	9824	5267	2898	11330	6188	17780	7970	4170	982	28470	16120	5624	4838	5049	24540	25290	24710	21830	17650	7072	7809	5769	7835	4790	8109	6268	8834	4558	3988	6371	13910	28510	16930	4880	8276	24220	6749	8106	24420	6020	5288	6357	10510	6603	5508	12190
2021-03-27	2867	5001	8519	8165	9481	9719	11550	3820	23330	30050	18660	4215	17590	8097	8021	8163	13340	22070	99850	6931	17820	9153	5934	25480	4768	25130	6972	47730	10740	6655	28210	6867	14360	30380	5932	24220	6182	9062	7022	9816	17010	14180	5547	13930	7047	10020	8185	8314	15670	12220	12590	3715	8972	20610	21540	6070	4838	4195	7703	11260	3088	5546	14010	37520	23360	2733	7874	30690	8424	7407	10220	4166	19900	2982	22510	11720	7822	26360	30690	2952	4164	4822	8148	6292	4667	17710	9527	8685	6573	5728	2971	7282	29580	12400	5158	6977	4924	5199	5408	8047	3068	4753	13610	8058	6328	3823	10200	5464	22180	7297	11860	4175	12820	5051	20610	7900	7600	20410	4242	8753	6191	6966	26740	6863	8156	4870	26120	5941	5613	24460	7716	7730	7439	6722	14850	8793	5889	7487	19150	12110	32780	17290	24040	9275	60660	35620	4886	21520	6513	6853	48320	19880	12630	3734	2755	51890	7944	26010	2611	3403	16050	2192	3233	6752	12330	19800	4361	6084	7124	23160	8376	35150	1950	5868	8437	6275	5460	8941	2982	9949	12290	4190	5999	17800	17240	7343	30280	8354	4863	22550	9245	9578	15120	9071	14160	13600	10750	32520	9231	6231	9199	4562	10670	2605	20870	6372	6052	4868	20540	6413	5450	6824	7684	1607	1864	22880	33520	5431	5247	23780	4781	6824	42020	14880	15080	14490	5893	4750	5702	7231	15000	5115	7242	4450	5447	4620	5742	8010	5328	8613	11280	14370	14620	22260	7333	7760	16980	8479	5287	5913	20580	15580	19560	5120	3732	21870	5431	15810	13280	11160	18020	5298	5515	2943	10820	9829	5271	2901	11330	6191	17790	7972	4173	982	28480	16130	5627	4842	5052	24580	25310	24730	21840	17670	7078	7812	5771	7836	4796	8114	6271	8838	4569	3992	6375	13920	28530	16940	4883	8284	24230	6753	8112	24430	6025	5293	6365	10520	6609	5516	12200
2021-03-28	2869	5005	8522	8173	9487	9723	11560	3822	23340	30060	18710	4217	17590	8104	8034	8166	13350	22080	99950	6941	17840	9160	5941	25510	4777	25140	6976	47810	10740	6664	28230	6869	14370	30400	5935	24240	6185	9065	7029	9824	17030	14210	5551	13940	7056	10030	8186	8320	15690	12240	12590	3718	8975	20640	21560	6076	4841	4197	7710	11270	3088	5562	14020	37560	23380	2735	7879	30700	8431	7421	10230	4170	19910	2990	22530	11730	7826	26380	30710	2955	4170	4826	8153	6307	4676	17730	9539	8692	6575	5738	2972	7287	29600	12400	5159	6985	4927	5203	5416	8050	3070	4758	13620	8066	6331	3825	10200	5466	22190	7301	11870	4179	12830	5057	20620	7905	7606	20420	4244	8763	6194	6970	26760	6868	8160	4875	26150	5948	5616	24480	7727	7737	7446	6724	14860	8797	5898	7497	19190	12120	32840	17300	24060	9278	60740	35660	4889	21530	6521	6861	48340	19900	12630	3735	2757	51950	7955	26020	2617	3407	16060	2194	3237	6754	12340	19820	4364	6089	7129	23190	8387	35170	1951	5873	8461	6279	5467	8975	2985	9957	12300	4197	6008	17820	17260	7349	30310	8360	4866	22580	9253	9583	15150	9081	14170	13620	10760	32540	9241	6249	9203	4569	10670	2610	20890	6376	6061	4870	20580	6425	5456	6832	7688	1609	1866	22910	33540	5434	5251	23790	4789	6828	42090	14890	15090	14520	5896	4753	5710	7236	15020	5128	7252	4452	5450	4624	5748	8023	5340	8618	11290	14400	14630	22260	7338	7764	17000	8483	5294	5921	20610	15600	19580	5129	3735	21900	5433	15820	13290	11180	18050	5307	5518	2945	10820	9834	5276	2903	11340	6195	17800	7974	4176	983	28490	16130	5629	4845	5056	24610	25340	24740	21850	17690	7084	7815	5773	7837	4804	8119	6274	8844	4581	3995	6380	13930	28550	16960	4886	8292	24230	6756	8118	24440	6031	5298	6370	10530	6613	5525	12200

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-03-21 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-03-21