COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-03-23

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-27	12-30	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-23	12-26	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	12-28	2021-01-11	12-31	12-27	12-22	12-29	12-27	12-27	12-29	2021-01-07	2021-01-01	11-15	12-28	12-21	10-29	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-13	12-27	12-28	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-30	12-30	12-27	11-03	12-21	12-26	12-25	12-08	12-27	12-21	12-21	2021-01-04	12-22	12-29	12-26	12-22	12-21	2021-01-02	12-21	12-21	2021-01-02	12-26	12-27	12-28	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-30	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	2021-01-02	2021-02-25	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	12-27	12-24	12-29	12-24	12-21	11-02	12-26	10-31	12-27	12-29	12-28	12-21	12-25	12-22	12-25	12-14	12-23	2021-01-06	12-21	12-23	12-28	12-18	12-28	2021-01-04	12-27	12-26	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-22	12-13	12-27	12-14	12-29	12-21	12-29	12-27	12-28	12-24	12-25	12-21	2021-01-01	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-25	10-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-30	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	11-29	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-21	2021-01-04	12-30	2021-01-03	12-22	11-04	12-31	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-25	12-22	12-26	12-28	12-29	2021-01-03	11-04	12-28	12-08	12-27	10-25	12-26	12-21	2021-03-10	12-21	12-30	11-03	12-21	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-30	12-29	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-31	2021-01-06	12-29	2021-01-02	12-29	12-21	2021-01-06	2021-01-05	12-22	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-13	12-31	12-13	10-17	12-30	12-27	12-27	12-25	2021-01-26	12-28	12-29	12-29	2021-01-03	12-21	12-31	12-29	12-24	12-27	12-30	12-25	12-27	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-26	12-25	2021-01-04	12-22	11-09	12-24	12-21	12-20	2021-01-03	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	2021-01-03	12-25	10-31	12-22	12-28	12-21	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-25	12-28	12-30	12-23	12-30	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-23	12-21	12-21	12-12	12-23	12-30	12-21	12-22	12-28	12-22	12-26	12-21	10-28	12-28	12-27	12-18	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-25	12-20	12-13	12-28	12-07	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	2021-01-01	12-28	12-30	12-21	12-30	12-26	12-28
Peak daily increment	61	88	97	180	109	172	178	78	476	588	191	59	326	131	108	108	232	430	1251	74	158	66	58	158	49	485	142	441	228	107	525	155	310	317	107	505	93	188	62	123	123	141	98	255	87	149	171	173	302	90	265	52	200	250	283	60	90	71	66	244	53	95	284	35	367	289	38	184	598	151	69	189	72	246	27	249	187	118	323	539	60	53	76	160	110	52	225	102	165	147	108	54	143	590	271	95	74	54	89	72	125	53	38	122	80	92	56	180	90	449	120	220	59	199	57	398	176	103	340	101	109	135	120	477	101	155	47	444	57	115	450	139	84	134	236	275	148	71	100	297	197	190	312	429	107	380	287	104	444	72	113	730	272	200	89	37	377	90	420	29	46	297	49	62	148	118	362	79	105	63	123	85	722	23	50	159	105	50	41	59	124	122	41	55	275	158	122	225	90	44	126	127	109	154	118	201	104	174	621	83	81	173	52	187	40	133	139	56	96	199	80	86	60	175	36	26	163	451	42	82	405	65	130	244	210	244	169	98	107	101	69	180	27	42	85	82	95	78	110	80	67	102	114	245	294	456	131	152	220	93	57	112	177	132	194	66	42	202	105	322	189	181	125	55	109	46	140	328	91	44	138	123	369	138	49	11	558	153	92	107	85	258	324	451	387	229	77	139	117	160	65	154	87	30	83	42	67	115	216	219	263	83	149	432	106	139	375	106	115	96	173	71	69	186
Days since peak	86	83	86	92	86	105	92	90	87	90	161	86	90	85	71	82	86	91	84	86	86	84	75	81	128	85	92	145	91	86	86	100	86	85	88	92	87	91	83	83	86	140	92	87	88	105	86	92	92	78	91	84	87	91	92	80	92	92	80	87	86	85	84	91	91	83	85	86	86	92	88	92	92	80	26	160	86	106	87	86	89	84	89	92	141	87	143	86	84	85	92	88	91	88	99	90	76	92	90	85	95	85	78	86	87	92	86	91	92	86	92	86	91	92	92	92	91	86	86	91	91	100	86	99	84	92	84	86	85	89	88	92	81	85	86	91	85	85	88	146	92	86	86	84	83	86	85	92	86	86	114	86	86	91	92	78	83	79	91	139	82	92	92	92	91	88	91	87	85	84	79	139	85	105	86	149	87	92	13	92	83	140	92	78	86	92	83	84	92	86	85	86	86	82	76	84	80	84	92	76	77	91	85	92	86	85	100	82	100	157	83	86	86	88	56	85	84	84	79	92	82	84	89	86	83	88	86	92	91	92	85	87	88	78	91	134	89	92	93	79	85	86	91	92	99	85	87	92	79	88	143	91	85	92	142	92	90	91	86	92	106	88	85	83	90	83	78	86	92	90	92	92	101	90	83	92	91	85	91	87	92	146	85	86	95	88	92	92	91	92	86	88	93	100	85	106	91	86	86	84	84	91	91	85	86	91	86	81	85	83	92	83	87	85
Last total	2859	4996	8500	8118	9466	9696	11522	3811	23292	29992	18444	4213	17558	8068	7946	8149	13308	22068	99465	6887	17746	9133	5886	25332	4733	25067	6954	47398	10719	6637	28135	6851	14326	30294	5920	24164	6180	9055	6996	9779	16936	14110	5532	13908	7019	9991	8178	8284	15620	12175	12577	3705	8962	20517	21446	6042	4816	4181	7686	11218	3091	5504	13972	2524	37423	23256	2727	7843	30625	8391	7339	10203	4147	19815	2942	22358	11658	7801	26282	30566	2940	4131	4803	8121	6229	4628	17634	9459	8655	6561	5694	2968	7254	29553	12366	5147	6933	4907	5180	5346	8035	3062	4728	13577	8018	6311	3807	10186	5454	22154	7281	11846	4154	12797	5027	20588	7879	7564	20385	4233	8729	6183	6961	26687	6830	8134	4853	26004	5922	5607	24399	7676	7713	7425	6717	14811	8783	5849	7445	18947	12053	32609	17263	23983	9274	60281	35427	4870	21487	6490	6807	48214	19789	12612	3731	2748	51651	7903	25965	2585	3395	16003	2186	3216	6748	12284	19711	4349	6063	7081	23070	8322	35063	1946	5858	8338	6261	5437	8841	2980	9923	12229	4194	5939	17723	17176	7316	30153	8309	4856	22453	9229	9553	15001	9039	14109	13521	10716	32446	9216	6150	9176	4525	10643	2584	20757	6365	6016	4858	20407	6379	5430	6781	7669	1604	1855	22722	33472	5435	5238	23699	4761	6807	41785	14838	15017	14409	5886	4735	5673	7191	14959	1609	5062	7204	4440	5432	4610	5724	7953	5280	8589	11223	14254	14583	22233	7309	7743	16911	8464	5242	5893	20469	15515	19496	5067	3709	21793	5420	15767	13274	11081	17883	5271	5500	2936	10813	9833	5251	2886	11324	6184	17744	7970	4160	984	28456	16113	5619	4826	5030	24382	25198	24673	21788	17581	7048	7793	5767	7829	4772	8096	6254	1151	8805	4531	3978	6349	13870	28456	16890	4875	8261	24165	6729	8072	24401	5998	5255	6331	10489	6584	5463	12159
Last daily increment	1	13	5	0	20	3	13	3	25	6	63	4	3	6	17	9	10	8	105	10	23	10	2	34	16	5	4	112	6	14	15	1	9	29	9	8	13	4	24	4	25	37	5	11	10	15	5	0	26	16	2	4	5	28	32	5	0	0	14	2	6	29	14	2	117	29	8	7	8	7	11	11	4	18	7	50	11	6	37	18	3	0	2	1	11	9	25	13	6	5	4	0	1	20	0	2	8	3	5	8	3	1	4	29	10	4	2	5	2	25	9	9	8	13	11	9	5	14	22	5	28	4	14	5	1	2	7	24	14	4	29	17	13	14	4	7	7	6	7	43	9	81	7	10	14	135	56	2	11	14	8	22	26	1	0	3	60	11	14	8	8	11	5	0	5	33	22	3	5	20	40	7	17	0	13	19	4	6	42	7	13	40	18	5	26	45	2	30	11	10	40	10	4	25	17	13	23	6	17	26	14	7	4	7	8	30	6	2	1	85	15	5	5	3	3	6	34	48	17	11	13	16	3	120	15	9	22	4	4	5	9	15	0	9	29	2	1	6	5	14	10	5	17	21	10	16	7	1	6	7	3	10	38	43	23	6	6	83	2	8	26	11	28	7	0	1	10	13	5	0	14	7	11	7	1	4	17	18	4	3	3	65	25	15	20	19	4	1	5	4	10	5	6	2	8	11	1	10	9	30	15	9	11	13	2	6	30	7	2	3	12	6	5	14
Last week	8	36	38	38	100	40	59	14	118	78	331	19	36	51	118	34	57	86	683	57	140	55	39	240	62	67	32	693	26	113	148	8	94	191	37	66	51	28	81	62	127	205	32	50	49	62	21	28	132	115	36	24	38	145	196	40	39	20	74	79	17	139	95	5	415	181	21	45	70	43	91	42	25	117	71	390	90	20	217	161	26	34	14	23	74	88	200	92	47	40	45	9	24	91	29	12	52	13	30	81	19	20	38	102	70	13	23	18	11	118	31	71	23	59	46	62	35	65	93	23	106	10	42	59	55	31	40	148	58	16	160	98	56	90	19	58	42	59	53	322	58	391	62	79	59	733	328	23	70	56	43	150	219	46	6	19	413	92	81	29	25	73	18	18	23	96	116	15	34	90	161	61	90	6	32	124	44	44	242	16	51	120	82	67	143	180	35	196	43	35	210	38	42	173	94	74	118	54	127	87	89	39	29	55	21	197	36	45	6	369	104	39	24	14	17	16	174	239	55	79	107	56	14	639	83	84	113	21	18	34	70	98	8	108	113	16	12	24	51	76	72	54	89	162	59	66	39	25	77	41	37	69	204	218	152	63	22	223	13	48	69	130	203	56	15	10	51	78	35	7	73	31	60	31	23	11	85	101	32	24	43	409	157	82	93	136	39	21	21	12	36	41	43	5	60	88	34	57	61	279	126	44	68	80	36	48	133	52	20	42	75	47	47	62
Previous peak date	--	--	10-27	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	10-28	10-18	--	--	03-23	--	10-19	10-11	10-24	10-17	--	10-29	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-12	10-28	--	--	--	--	10-04	09-29	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	10-29	10-13	--	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-03	11-02	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	11-02	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-27	--	--	--	--	10-11	10-30	10-11	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	09-27	10-25	10-17	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-28	--	11-01	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-27	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	06-14	--	--	--	--	09-28	--	--	--	--	09-22	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	11-04	--	--	--	--	11-04	08-02	--	--	09-30	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	11-03	--	10-13	--	--	11-03	10-26	--	10-13	10-13	--	10-18	--	10-12	--	--	11-02	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-19	11-01	11-03	--	09-30	--	--	09-29	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	10-13	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-06	--	--	--	10-18	10-12	--	10-25	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	10-18	10-29	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	10-17	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-29	--	11-03	--	10-11	--	10-06
Previous peak daily increment			82		62							29			77	72			95		164	99	54	235		135		55					71	321					57	70	159						40			131			34	117		53			62				68		293	144	20							165	29		55									31					32						55	75					41	129	71				25			71	31	56				65							48		42		52				59									360	152		86	541	75					530					611	61								73					391				51				108					58	68			610			256				82		102			95	43		41	42		196		64			43		67				237	232	86		183			435	113						65								24	70		76							118				183	125		31		127					177	46			90								48			138								134	58		22						91					320				137				38		31		65		130
Low between peaks			28		26							8			36	24			9		54	28	19	61		34		27					21	81					19	33	55						9			32			16	55		18			31				14		106	71	9							53	7		18									15					8						17	17					11	25	23				12			22	7	23				18							13		11		14				21									95	19		23	154	15					58					136	19								34					54				14				20					16	7			70			58				19		40			25	13		12	20		62		22			19		14				48	91	18		26			119	34						22								11	28		24							30				46	48		9		58					33	15			31								7			27								34	21		11						19					77				21				9		11		18		16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-24 to 2021-03-30

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-03-23	2859	4996	8500	8118	9466	9696	11522	3811	23292	29992	18444	4213	17558	8068	7946	8149	13308	22068	99465	6887	17746	9133	5886	25332	4733	25067	6954	47398	10719	6637	28135	6851	14326	30294	5920	24164	6180	9055	6996	9779	16936	14110	5532	13908	7019	9991	8178	8284	15620	12175	12577	3705	8962	20517	21446	6042	4816	4181	7686	11218	3091	5504	13972	37423	23256	2727	7843	30625	8391	7339	10203	4147	19815	2942	22358	11658	7801	26282	30566	2940	4131	4803	8121	6229	4628	17634	9459	8655	6561	5694	2968	7254	29553	12366	5147	6933	4907	5180	5346	8035	3062	4728	13577	8018	6311	3807	10186	5454	22154	7281	11846	4154	12797	5027	20588	7879	7564	20385	4233	8729	6183	6961	26687	6830	8134	4853	26004	5922	5607	24399	7676	7713	7425	6717	14811	8783	5849	7445	18947	12053	32609	17263	23983	9274	60281	35427	4870	21487	6490	6807	48214	19789	12612	3731	2748	51651	7903	25965	2585	3395	16003	2186	3216	6748	12284	19711	4349	6063	7081	23070	8322	35063	1946	5858	8338	6261	5437	8841	2980	9923	12229	4194	5939	17723	17176	7316	30153	8309	4856	22453	9229	9553	15001	9039	14109	13521	10716	32446	9216	6150	9176	4525	10643	2584	20757	6365	6016	4858	20407	6379	5430	6781	7669	1604	1855	22722	33472	5435	5238	23699	4761	6807	41785	14838	15017	14409	5886	4735	5673	7191	14959	1609	5062	7204	4440	5432	4610	5724	7953	5280	8589	11223	14254	14583	22233	7309	7743	16911	8464	5242	5893	20469	15515	19496	5067	3709	21793	5420	15767	13274	11081	17883	5271	5500	2936	10813	9833	5251	2886	11324	6184	17744	7970	4160	984	28456	16113	5619	4826	5030	24382	25198	24673	21788	17581	7048	7793	5767	7829	4772	8096	6254	8805	4531	3978	6349	13870	28456	16890	4875	8261	24165	6729	8072	24401	5998	5255	6331	10489	6584	5463	12159
2021-03-24	2861	5002	8518	8140	9472	9699	11540	3814	23310	30020	18500	4217	17580	8076	7966	8156	13320	22080	99600	6898	17770	9140	5895	25380	4748	25100	6960	47490	10720	6637	28160	6853	14340	30330	5924	24180	6186	9059	7001	9787	16970	14120	5536	13920	7030	10000	8180	8290	15640	12190	12580	3708	8966	20560	21480	6049	4816	4183	7697	11230	3094	5507	13970	37480	23290	2730	7851	30640	8398	7363	10210	4152	19860	2951	22370	11680	7805	26300	30620	2944	4138	4811	8126	6243	4640	17670	9483	8669	6561	5708	2969	7259	29570	12370	5149	6942	4911	5190	5369	8042	3063	4735	13590	8030	6318	3813	10190	5461	22170	7287	11860	4159	12810	5034	20600	7886	7572	20420	4236	8743	6188	6966	26700	6838	8138	4857	26030	5931	5611	24420	7689	7722	7429	6720	14820	8785	5859	7462	19020	12070	32670	17270	24000	9276	60380	35500	4874	21500	6500	6826	48270	19830	12610	3732	2761	51720	7909	25980	2591	3403	16020	2189	3219	6752	12310	19740	4352	6070	7098	23100	8347	35110	1947	5867	8353	6266	5445	8875	2980	9940	12250	4203	5952	17750	17190	7322	30190	8335	4861	22480	9243	9560	15070	9041	14130	13560	10730	32470	9229	6167	9184	4531	10650	2589	20810	6365	6024	4860	20430	6393	5436	6788	7673	1606	1858	22790	33510	5440	5238	23730	4769	6811	41940	14860	15050	14450	5891	4739	5684	7199	14980	1609	5077	7209	4442	5438	4613	5726	7967	5294	8594	11240	14290	14590	22240	7315	7749	16950	8469	5261	5902	20510	15520	19540	5084	3713	21870	5422	15780	13280	11100	17930	5280	5506	2938	10820	9842	5256	2894	11330	6188	17760	7970	4164	984	28470	16130	5619	4830	5037	24450	25240	24690	21800	17610	7056	7797	5770	7833	4780	8104	6258	8827	4543	3983	6357	13890	28500	16910	4881	8272	24200	6738	8082	24430	6005	5272	6338	10510	6587	5492	12170
2021-03-25	2863	5008	8529	8158	9482	9706	11550	3817	23310	30050	18550	4220	17600	8089	7987	8163	13340	22080	99800	6914	17800	9147	5909	25410	4761	25130	6965	47600	10740	6646	28180	6861	14350	30360	5926	24190	6189	9062	7008	9803	16990	14150	5540	13930	7037	10010	8181	8296	15650	12230	12590	3711	8974	20590	21490	6061	4819	4186	7704	11250	3096	5516	13980	37510	23330	2732	7858	30670	8414	7377	10210	4161	19890	2967	22420	11700	7814	26330	30660	2945	4156	4815	8137	6258	4644	17700	9498	8683	6561	5719	2970	7269	29570	12380	5154	6962	4917	5198	5385	8048	3067	4745	13600	8048	6323	3817	10210	5468	22180	7297	11870	4166	12820	5044	20610	7894	7578	20440	4239	8752	6193	6972	26720	6845	8147	4865	26070	5940	5615	24440	7704	7735	7432	6721	14830	8791	5872	7474	19080	12080	32720	17290	24020	9286	60470	35570	4878	21510	6510	6838	48310	19850	12620	3734	2770	51780	7922	25990	2596	3410	16030	2191	3222	6757	12330	19790	4358	6076	7111	23130	8362	35130	1949	5874	8369	6268	5453	8879	2982	9954	12270	4203	5980	17770	17210	7328	30230	8348	4865	22510	9252	9570	15110	9051	14150	13580	10730	32490	9236	6190	9191	4543	10660	2594	20840	6371	6032	4862	20480	6396	5439	6810	7679	1609	1859	22830	33560	5440	5245	23760	4773	6817	42060	14870	15070	14470	5894	4744	5690	7209	14990	1609	5095	7217	4445	5444	4616	5730	7990	5306	8605	11260	14320	14610	22260	7321	7754	16970	8476	5273	5904	20560	15550	19580	5094	3723	21920	5427	15800	13280	11130	17960	5288	5511	2943	10830	9842	5263	2897	11340	6191	17770	7970	4172	984	28490	16150	5619	4833	5045	24510	25270	24710	21820	17630	7072	7808	5772	7835	4790	8116	6263	8844	4550	3985	6372	13900	28550	16940	4882	8276	24230	6746	8091	24440	6012	5284	6351	10520	6594	5506	12190
2021-03-26	2865	5013	8537	8166	9491	9714	11560	3820	23320	30060	18600	4222	17610	8099	8009	8168	13350	22090	99900	6927	17820	9155	5920	25450	4767	25150	6973	47700	10750	6663	28210	6866	14360	30390	5931	24210	6194	9065	7016	9810	17010	14170	5544	13940	7043	10010	8183	8302	15670	12250	12600	3714	8981	20620	21520	6071	4823	4188	7712	11260	3100	5530	14000	37550	23360	2734	7866	30700	8425	7390	10220	4167	19910	2980	22460	11720	7821	26350	30680	2948	4169	4821	8145	6272	4651	17740	9519	8690	6563	5729	2970	7277	29590	12390	5158	6977	4922	5203	5400	8051	3070	4754	13620	8062	6326	3823	10220	5469	22190	7305	11870	4172	12830	5052	20620	7900	7588	20460	4241	8763	6196	6977	26730	6852	8153	4874	26100	5949	5619	24470	7718	7746	7441	6724	14840	8797	5883	7487	19140	12090	32770	17300	24030	9290	60590	35620	4882	21520	6519	6847	48340	19880	12620	3735	2778	51840	7935	26010	2601	3416	16040	2193	3225	6762	12350	19830	4363	6081	7122	23160	8372	35150	1950	5880	8384	6271	5460	8897	2983	9964	12290	4203	6001	17790	17230	7335	30270	8356	4870	22540	9256	9579	15140	9064	14160	13610	10740	32510	9245	6209	9198	4552	10670	2599	20870	6377	6040	4863	20530	6404	5443	6825	7684	1611	1861	22860	33600	5440	5254	23780	4779	6822	42190	14890	15080	14480	5900	4749	5698	7224	15010	1610	5109	7228	4448	5447	4620	5738	8008	5316	8615	11270	14340	14620	22270	7327	7758	17000	8482	5283	5909	20590	15570	19600	5104	3730	21970	5431	15810	13280	11150	17990	5294	5515	2947	10840	9844	5269	2899	11340	6194	17780	7974	4179	984	28500	16170	5619	4836	5052	24580	25300	24720	21840	17650	7083	7816	5774	7837	4799	8124	6271	8855	4559	3988	6381	13910	28580	16960	4885	8283	24250	6754	8100	24460	6019	5289	6360	10540	6600	5522	12200
2021-03-27	2866	5019	8543	8174	9502	9717	11570	3823	23330	30070	18650	4224	17620	8108	8023	8171	13370	22100	100000	6939	17830	9163	5930	25490	4773	25160	6977	47790	10750	6668	28220	6870	14370	30420	5933	24220	6199	9068	7022	9814	17010	14190	5548	13950	7048	10020	8185	8308	15690	12270	12610	3717	8984	20630	21550	6079	4825	4192	7722	11280	3101	5553	14000	37590	23370	2736	7873	30710	8434	7403	10220	4172	19930	2991	22480	11720	7826	26370	30710	2951	4179	4823	8152	6286	4660	17770	9529	8695	6568	5733	2972	7283	29590	12400	5161	6989	4926	5207	5409	8054	3072	4761	13620	8075	6329	3827	10230	5471	22200	7311	11880	4177	12840	5060	20630	7906	7592	20470	4244	8775	6196	6982	26750	6860	8159	4877	26130	5957	5622	24490	7727	7748	7443	6726	14850	8802	5893	7493	19180	12110	32820	17310	24050	9298	60670	35680	4886	21530	6529	6854	48370	19910	12630	3736	2782	51890	7945	26020	2607	3418	16050	2196	3228	6766	12360	19860	4366	6087	7131	23180	8383	35170	1951	5885	8399	6276	5468	8920	2984	9968	12310	4208	6017	17810	17240	7341	30310	8364	4875	22560	9262	9586	15160	9073	14170	13630	10750	32520	9255	6227	9202	4560	10680	2603	20890	6379	6048	4864	20550	6414	5447	6835	7688	1613	1863	22880	33630	5441	5258	23790	4785	6826	42300	14900	15100	14490	5901	4753	5703	7229	15020	1610	5120	7235	4450	5448	4623	5742	8023	5324	8622	11290	14360	14630	22280	7333	7762	17000	8487	5289	5916	20610	15600	19630	5110	3736	22020	5433	15820	13290	11160	18010	5301	5519	2950	10840	9849	5274	2901	11350	6198	17800	7976	4184	984	28520	16180	5622	4840	5059	24620	25320	24740	21850	17670	7093	7821	5775	7838	4807	8130	6274	8862	4569	3993	6383	13920	28610	16970	4889	8291	24260	6759	8105	24480	6026	5291	6368	10550	6607	5527	12210
2021-03-28	2868	5024	8548	8185	9517	9723	11580	3826	23340	30090	18700	4228	17620	8116	8035	8175	13380	22110	100100	6950	17850	9171	5939	25520	4782	25180	6982	47860	10760	6679	28240	6873	14380	30440	5938	24230	6205	9072	7031	9823	17030	14220	5552	13960	7059	10020	8187	8314	15700	12290	12620	3720	8990	20660	21570	6087	4832	4196	7731	11290	3102	5562	14010	37640	23400	2739	7880	30730	8443	7418	10230	4178	19950	3001	22540	11740	7831	26400	30740	2954	4189	4828	8158	6300	4669	17800	9541	8702	6572	5743	2973	7289	29610	12400	5163	7000	4930	5213	5420	8058	3075	4768	13640	8087	6332	3828	10240	5473	22220	7318	11890	4182	12850	5067	20640	7912	7604	20490	4247	8787	6199	6987	26760	6868	8164	4884	26160	5966	5626	24510	7744	7758	7455	6729	14860	8807	5903	7504	19230	12120	32880	17320	24060	9306	60770	35720	4889	21540	6538	6862	48390	19940	12640	3737	2786	51960	7962	26030	2612	3423	16060	2199	3231	6770	12370	19890	4370	6093	7139	23210	8392	35190	1952	5889	8413	6281	5475	8946	2987	9977	12330	4214	6033	17830	17270	7347	30340	8374	4879	22580	9269	9594	15190	9082	14190	13650	10760	32540	9265	6245	9207	4568	10690	2608	20920	6382	6056	4865	20590	6425	5453	6845	7692	1615	1865	22910	33660	5444	5265	23820	4792	6830	42410	14910	15110	14510	5904	4757	5712	7235	15030	1611	5135	7247	4452	5454	4626	5747	8038	5339	8630	11310	14390	14640	22290	7339	7767	17020	8495	5299	5923	20640	15620	19650	5121	3741	22080	5436	15830	13300	11190	18050	5315	5522	2953	10850	9855	5279	2905	11360	6202	17810	7980	4189	984	28530	16200	5627	4843	5065	24660	25350	24750	21870	17690	7103	7827	5778	7841	4814	8139	6279	8875	4579	3997	6393	13930	28660	17000	4894	8300	24270	6765	8113	24500	6033	5297	6376	10560	6613	5533	12220
2021-03-29	2870	5029	8558	8195	9537	9729	11590	3828	23360	30110	18760	4232	17630	8124	8056	8181	13390	22120	100300	6961	17870	9179	5948	25560	4796	25190	6988	48000	10760	6705	28270	6876	14400	30490	5946	24240	6211	9075	7040	9833	17050	14260	5557	13970	7069	10030	8189	8319	15720	12310	12620	3723	8995	20690	21600	6094	4840	4200	7741	11300	3107	5585	14030	37690	23430	2741	7888	30750	8450	7440	10230	4182	19970	3011	22610	11750	7835	26440	30770	2957	4197	4832	8163	6313	4680	17840	9557	8716	6577	5751	2974	7295	29630	12410	5166	7009	4933	5220	5441	8059	3079	4775	13660	8099	6335	3833	10250	5475	22230	7324	11900	4186	12850	5074	20650	7918	7618	20510	4250	8800	6200	6992	26770	6876	8168	4889	26190	5973	5629	24530	7762	7765	7479	6731	14870	8813	5913	7516	19290	12130	32960	17330	24070	9315	60910	35770	4893	21550	6547	6867	48420	19970	12650	3738	2793	52040	7974	26050	2618	3428	16070	2201	3234	6774	12380	19920	4373	6099	7155	23240	8410	35200	1953	5895	8428	6286	5483	8975	2988	9986	12350	4221	6047	17850	17300	7353	30370	8380	4884	22620	9281	9601	15230	9097	14200	13670	10760	32560	9276	6262	9216	4575	10700	2612	20960	6389	6064	4866	20670	6437	5458	6853	7696	1617	1868	22950	33710	5449	5277	23830	4800	6833	42550	14930	15130	14530	5909	4760	5716	7247	15050	1612	5165	7268	4454	5457	4630	5760	8052	5351	8636	11320	14410	14640	22300	7345	7771	17040	8501	5305	5932	20670	15660	19690	5133	3746	22120	5439	15840	13310	11210	18090	5323	5525	2955	10870	9862	5284	2906	11370	6206	17820	7985	4194	987	28550	16220	5635	4847	5072	24740	25380	24770	21890	17710	7111	7831	5783	7843	4822	8144	6291	8884	4590	4001	6401	13940	28720	17030	4899	8309	24290	6770	8122	24530	6040	5297	6383	10570	6622	5542	12230
2021-03-30	2871	5035	8564	8199	9553	9732	11600	3831	23370	30120	18810	4235	17630	8132	8075	8188	13400	22130	100400	6971	17900	9187	5956	25600	4812	25200	6993	48110	10770	6718	28280	6878	14410	30510	5954	24260	6218	9079	7060	9839	17080	14290	5561	13980	7076	10040	8191	8325	15740	12330	12630	3726	9000	20720	21630	6100	4842	4202	7752	11310	3110	5608	14040	37740	23460	2744	7895	30760	8457	7452	10240	4186	19990	3020	22650	11760	7840	26470	30790	2961	4204	4835	8168	6327	4691	17870	9570	8722	6580	5758	2975	7300	29640	12410	5168	7018	4937	5224	5450	8062	3081	4781	13680	8110	6339	3836	10250	5478	22240	7330	11910	4190	12860	5081	20660	7924	7629	20530	4253	8813	6203	6997	26780	6884	8173	4895	26220	5981	5633	24550	7777	7777	7491	6734	14880	8819	5922	7523	19340	12140	33030	17340	24090	9326	61020	35820	4896	21560	6556	6875	48440	20010	12650	3739	2797	52100	7985	26060	2624	3435	16080	2204	3236	6778	12410	19950	4376	6104	7172	23260	8420	35220	1954	5906	8443	6291	5490	9006	2992	9998	12370	4229	6059	17880	17330	7359	30400	8390	4888	22660	9289	9609	15250	9111	14210	13690	10770	32580	9288	6278	9224	4581	10710	2616	21000	6394	6072	4866	20740	6450	5464	6860	7699	1619	1871	22980	33750	5454	5286	23850	4808	6836	42640	14940	15140	14550	5913	4763	5721	7258	15070	1613	5176	7290	4456	5458	4633	5764	8066	5361	8642	11340	14430	14650	22310	7351	7775	17050	8507	5312	5940	20710	15700	19710	5140	3750	22170	5441	15850	13330	11220	18120	5330	5529	2957	10870	9870	5289	2907	11380	6210	17830	7991	4198	989	28560	16230	5639	4851	5078	24800	25400	24780	21900	17730	7119	7835	5787	7847	4829	8149	6296	8894	4602	4006	6410	13950	28750	17040	4905	8319	24300	6774	8127	24550	6048	5304	6390	10580	6628	5550	12240

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-24 to 2021-03-30

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-03-23	2859	4996	8500	8118	9466	9696	11522	3811	23292	29992	18444	4213	17558	8068	7946	8149	13308	22068	99465	6887	17746	9133	5886	25332	4733	25067	6954	47398	10719	6637	28135	6851	14326	30294	5920	24164	6180	9055	6996	9779	16936	14110	5532	13908	7019	9991	8178	8284	15620	12175	12577	3705	8962	20517	21446	6042	4816	4181	7686	11218	3091	5504	13972	37423	23256	2727	7843	30625	8391	7339	10203	4147	19815	2942	22358	11658	7801	26282	30566	2940	4131	4803	8121	6229	4628	17634	9459	8655	6561	5694	2968	7254	29553	12366	5147	6933	4907	5180	5346	8035	3062	4728	13577	8018	6311	3807	10186	5454	22154	7281	11846	4154	12797	5027	20588	7879	7564	20385	4233	8729	6183	6961	26687	6830	8134	4853	26004	5922	5607	24399	7676	7713	7425	6717	14811	8783	5849	7445	18947	12053	32609	17263	23983	9274	60281	35427	4870	21487	6490	6807	48214	19789	12612	3731	2748	51651	7903	25965	2585	3395	16003	2186	3216	6748	12284	19711	4349	6063	7081	23070	8322	35063	1946	5858	8338	6261	5437	8841	2980	9923	12229	4194	5939	17723	17176	7316	30153	8309	4856	22453	9229	9553	15001	9039	14109	13521	10716	32446	9216	6150	9176	4525	10643	2584	20757	6365	6016	4858	20407	6379	5430	6781	7669	1604	1855	22722	33472	5435	5238	23699	4761	6807	41785	14838	15017	14409	5886	4735	5673	7191	14959	1609	5062	7204	4440	5432	4610	5724	7953	5280	8589	11223	14254	14583	22233	7309	7743	16911	8464	5242	5893	20469	15515	19496	5067	3709	21793	5420	15767	13274	11081	17883	5271	5500	2936	10813	9833	5251	2886	11324	6184	17744	7970	4160	984	28456	16113	5619	4826	5030	24382	25198	24673	21788	17581	7048	7793	5767	7829	4772	8096	6254	8805	4531	3978	6349	13870	28456	16890	4875	8261	24165	6729	8072	24401	5998	5255	6331	10489	6584	5463	12159
2021-03-24	2860	5003	8508	8123	9482	9702	11530	3814	23310	30010	18510	4217	17570	8076	7964	8156	13320	22080	99600	6898	17770	9142	5897	25370	4745	25080	6959	47510	10730	6650	28160	6853	14340	30330	5927	24180	6190	9059	7011	9788	16960	14140	5537	13920	7029	10000	8181	8291	15640	12190	12580	3709	8966	20540	21490	6048	4820	4184	7697	11230	3095	5525	13990	37490	23290	2731	7851	30640	8399	7358	10210	4152	19840	2951	22420	11680	7806	26310	30590	2943	4137	4804	8125	6243	4639	17660	9477	8663	6567	5700	2969	7258	29570	12370	5149	6941	4911	5186	5365	8038	3064	4735	13600	8029	6313	3811	10190	5456	22170	7287	11860	4160	12810	5035	20600	7885	7575	20400	4237	8746	6185	6969	26700	6838	8138	4858	26030	5933	5608	24420	7692	7721	7442	6721	14820	8789	5858	7456	19000	12070	32680	17270	24000	9280	60420	35480	4874	21500	6500	6817	48240	19820	12620	3732	2753	51720	7915	25980	2592	3400	16020	2190	3219	6751	12310	19730	4352	6068	7104	23100	8334	35090	1947	5864	8360	6267	5445	8877	2984	9932	12260	4206	5949	17750	17210	7322	30190	8324	4862	22490	9238	9561	15050	9054	14120	13540	10730	32470	9232	6167	9182	4531	10650	2590	20800	6369	6023	4860	20470	6393	5437	6788	7672	1607	1859	22760	33510	5441	5248	23720	4771	6810	41900	14850	15030	14440	5890	4739	5681	7199	14980	1610	5076	7225	4442	5434	4614	5731	7967	5292	8595	11240	14290	14590	22240	7315	7747	16930	8470	5248	5903	20500	15550	19520	5082	3714	21840	5423	15780	13290	11100	17920	5280	5503	2939	10820	9843	5256	2889	11330	6189	17750	7975	4164	986	28470	16130	5623	4830	5036	24450	25230	24690	21810	17600	7054	7796	5771	7832	4780	8102	6262	8814	4542	3983	6357	13880	28500	16910	4880	8273	24180	6734	8079	24430	6005	5260	6338	10500	6590	5476	12170
2021-03-25	2862	5007	8514	8133	9492	9708	11540	3817	23320	30030	18570	4218	17570	8084	7983	8161	13330	22080	99700	6909	17790	9150	5907	25410	4756	25100	6964	47610	10730	6661	28180	6857	14350	30360	5931	24190	6193	9063	7022	9800	16990	14170	5542	13920	7036	10010	8183	8297	15650	12210	12590	3713	8969	20570	21510	6056	4825	4187	7705	11240	3096	5539	14000	37540	23320	2733	7858	30660	8406	7374	10210	4158	19860	2963	22480	11690	7811	26340	30620	2946	4145	4807	8132	6260	4650	17690	9489	8673	6571	5709	2970	7265	29580	12380	5151	6954	4915	5192	5379	8042	3067	4742	13610	8042	6316	3814	10190	5459	22180	7292	11860	4165	12820	5043	20610	7891	7583	20420	4240	8757	6188	6972	26710	6846	8144	4865	26070	5940	5612	24450	7704	7730	7450	6724	14830	8794	5869	7466	19050	12080	32730	17280	24010	9286	60530	35530	4878	21510	6507	6828	48270	19850	12620	3733	2756	51790	7927	25990	2599	3403	16030	2192	3223	6755	12320	19750	4356	6073	7118	23130	8347	35110	1948	5869	8386	6272	5452	8904	2986	9942	12280	4209	5964	17770	17230	7327	30220	8333	4865	22520	9244	9568	15070	9065	14140	13560	10730	32490	9240	6187	9188	4540	10660	2596	20830	6374	6032	4862	20510	6404	5442	6798	7676	1608	1861	22800	33530	5445	5256	23740	4779	6815	41990	14860	15040	14460	5892	4743	5687	7207	14990	1611	5092	7238	4444	5438	4617	5736	7983	5303	8604	11250	14320	14600	22250	7321	7752	16940	8475	5256	5910	20540	15570	19540	5094	3720	21880	5426	15790	13290	11120	17950	5286	5507	2941	10830	9846	5262	2891	11340	6192	17760	7977	4170	987	28480	16140	5625	4833	5044	24510	25250	24700	21820	17630	7063	7801	5773	7833	4786	8107	6266	8824	4553	3987	6369	13890	28530	16930	4884	8281	24200	6740	8089	24440	6012	5269	6344	10510	6597	5486	12180
2021-03-26	2864	5011	8519	8137	9498	9715	11550	3819	23340	30040	18620	4219	17580	8091	8003	8164	13340	22090	99800	6919	17810	9155	5915	25450	4764	25110	6970	47720	10740	6676	28200	6860	14360	30390	5936	24200	6197	9066	7032	9808	17010	14190	5547	13930	7044	10020	8186	8304	15670	12220	12590	3715	8972	20590	21540	6061	4831	4189	7711	11250	3097	5555	14010	37580	23340	2736	7864	30670	8413	7389	10220	4163	19880	2971	22520	11710	7815	26370	30640	2950	4152	4811	8137	6276	4660	17720	9506	8680	6574	5718	2971	7270	29590	12390	5154	6964	4919	5196	5392	8044	3069	4748	13620	8052	6319	3819	10200	5461	22190	7296	11870	4170	12820	5050	20610	7897	7592	20420	4243	8769	6191	6976	26730	6854	8150	4871	26100	5947	5613	24470	7715	7737	7460	6726	14840	8799	5879	7477	19110	12090	32790	17290	24030	9288	60640	35580	4881	21520	6515	6837	48300	19880	12630	3734	2759	51850	7939	26010	2606	3407	16040	2195	3227	6756	12340	19770	4360	6077	7128	23160	8357	35120	1949	5872	8411	6277	5459	8934	2987	9950	12290	4214	5976	17790	17250	7333	30260	8339	4869	22560	9249	9573	15090	9078	14150	13580	10740	32510	9248	6205	9195	4547	10670	2601	20860	6379	6041	4863	20570	6416	5449	6806	7680	1610	1864	22830	33550	5447	5264	23750	4787	6818	42070	14880	15060	14480	5896	4747	5694	7220	15000	1611	5106	7253	4446	5439	4620	5744	7998	5314	8612	11270	14350	14610	22260	7327	7756	16960	8480	5264	5918	20570	15600	19560	5104	3726	21910	5429	15800	13300	11140	17990	5293	5510	2943	10830	9849	5268	2893	11350	6196	17770	7981	4173	987	28490	16140	5627	4837	5049	24570	25280	24720	21840	17650	7070	7805	5775	7835	4793	8112	6274	8829	4565	3990	6377	13900	28550	16940	4887	8289	24220	6746	8098	24450	6019	5274	6350	10520	6603	5498	12190
2021-03-27	2865	5015	8524	8143	9508	9719	11560	3822	23350	30050	18680	4220	17590	8097	8019	8168	13350	22090	99900	6929	17830	9160	5924	25490	4771	25130	6974	47810	10740	6684	28220	6862	14370	30410	5939	24220	6200	9070	7041	9814	17020	14220	5552	13940	7051	10030	8187	8309	15690	12230	12600	3719	8974	20610	21570	6067	4835	4192	7716	11260	3098	5576	14020	37630	23360	2738	7871	30690	8419	7405	10220	4167	19900	2979	22540	11720	7819	26390	30660	2953	4158	4813	8141	6291	4670	17740	9518	8686	6580	5723	2972	7275	29600	12390	5155	6970	4923	5200	5401	8047	3072	4754	13630	8060	6321	3822	10200	5462	22200	7300	11870	4174	12830	5056	20620	7903	7598	20430	4245	8780	6193	6979	26740	6861	8154	4875	26120	5953	5615	24490	7725	7741	7466	6729	14850	8804	5889	7482	19150	12100	32830	17300	24040	9292	60730	35630	4884	21530	6522	6845	48320	19910	12630	3734	2761	51910	7950	26020	2612	3410	16050	2197	3231	6758	12350	19790	4363	6082	7136	23180	8368	35140	1950	5876	8430	6281	5466	8966	2988	9954	12310	4220	5987	17810	17270	7339	30290	8345	4872	22580	9254	9579	15110	9089	14160	13600	10750	32530	9256	6223	9198	4554	10680	2606	20880	6382	6050	4865	20600	6428	5455	6814	7683	1612	1866	22850	33570	5450	5270	23770	4794	6822	42160	14890	15070	14490	5898	4750	5699	7225	15010	1612	5119	7263	4448	5441	4623	5749	8009	5323	8617	11280	14370	14620	22270	7332	7760	16970	8485	5269	5926	20600	15630	19580	5113	3729	21940	5430	15810	13310	11160	18020	5300	5513	2944	10830	9854	5272	2895	11350	6200	17780	7984	4176	988	28500	16150	5631	4840	5053	24610	25300	24730	21850	17670	7076	7809	5777	7835	4799	8117	6277	8833	4577	3993	6378	13910	28560	16960	4891	8297	24220	6750	8104	24460	6025	5278	6357	10530	6611	5504	12200
2021-03-28	2867	5019	8528	8152	9519	9725	11570	3824	23360	30060	18740	4222	17590	8103	8033	8171	13350	22100	100000	6939	17850	9167	5930	25520	4781	25140	6979	47900	10750	6695	28240	6865	14380	30430	5943	24230	6204	9073	7051	9822	17040	14250	5556	13940	7059	10030	8189	8315	15700	12250	12600	3722	8977	20630	21590	6073	4841	4194	7725	11270	3099	5589	14030	37680	23380	2740	7877	30700	8426	7421	10230	4170	19910	2986	22590	11730	7823	26410	30690	2957	4164	4818	8145	6306	4681	17760	9529	8693	6583	5732	2974	7280	29620	12400	5157	6979	4926	5205	5411	8051	3074	4759	13650	8069	6324	3824	10200	5464	22210	7304	11880	4178	12840	5062	20630	7908	7608	20440	4248	8791	6196	6982	26750	6869	8158	4880	26150	5960	5617	24510	7739	7750	7475	6732	14860	8808	5899	7493	19200	12110	32890	17310	24050	9296	60820	35670	4888	21540	6530	6854	48350	19940	12640	3735	2763	51970	7963	26030	2619	3414	16060	2200	3234	6761	12360	19810	4366	6088	7142	23210	8379	35160	1951	5881	8453	6286	5473	8998	2991	9962	12330	4227	5997	17830	17290	7345	30310	8352	4876	22620	9261	9585	15140	9099	14170	13620	10760	32540	9267	6240	9204	4561	10680	2611	20910	6386	6059	4866	20630	6441	5460	6821	7686	1614	1869	22890	33590	5453	5276	23790	4802	6825	42240	14900	15080	14510	5901	4753	5707	7230	15030	1613	5133	7274	4450	5446	4626	5754	8022	5337	8622	11300	14400	14630	22270	7338	7765	16980	8490	5278	5934	20630	15650	19590	5123	3733	21970	5433	15820	13310	11180	18050	5311	5516	2946	10840	9861	5278	2898	11360	6203	17790	7988	4179	988	28510	16160	5635	4843	5057	24640	25330	24740	21860	17690	7082	7813	5779	7837	4806	8124	6281	8839	4589	3997	6386	13920	28590	16970	4895	8306	24230	6755	8112	24470	6031	5284	6364	10540	6617	5513	12210
2021-03-29	2869	5024	8534	8163	9530	9730	11580	3826	23370	30070	18800	4224	17600	8109	8052	8178	13360	22100	100100	6949	17880	9174	5940	25560	4794	25150	6985	48010	10750	6711	28270	6867	14390	30470	5950	24240	6208	9077	7060	9831	17060	14280	5561	13950	7069	10040	8191	8323	15720	12260	12600	3724	8980	20660	21620	6079	4846	4196	7732	11280	3100	5607	14050	37730	23410	2743	7884	30710	8431	7440	10230	4175	19930	2994	22630	11750	7827	26450	30730	2961	4170	4824	8149	6321	4693	17790	9543	8704	6585	5740	2975	7285	29630	12400	5158	6988	4929	5211	5430	8053	3077	4766	13660	8077	6328	3829	10200	5466	22220	7307	11880	4182	12850	5069	20630	7914	7621	20450	4251	8803	6200	6985	26760	6874	8162	4885	26180	5968	5622	24530	7754	7758	7490	6734	14870	8813	5908	7507	19250	12130	32960	17310	24070	9301	60950	35720	4892	21550	6541	6862	48380	19970	12650	3736	2766	52050	7975	26040	2625	3417	16070	2203	3238	6765	12370	19830	4369	6094	7157	23230	8395	35180	1952	5886	8478	6291	5480	9031	2992	9972	12340	4234	6007	17850	17310	7351	30340	8364	4879	22650	9272	9590	15170	9111	14190	13640	10770	32560	9281	6257	9213	4568	10690	2615	20950	6391	6067	4868	20700	6454	5467	6827	7690	1616	1872	22930	33610	5456	5282	23810	4810	6828	42340	14910	15100	14540	5906	4756	5713	7242	15040	1614	5154	7293	4452	5449	4629	5763	8035	5348	8624	11310	14430	14640	22280	7343	7769	17000	8496	5286	5943	20670	15680	19610	5136	3737	22010	5435	15830	13320	11200	18090	5319	5520	2948	10850	9868	5283	2900	11360	6207	17810	7991	4184	990	28520	16170	5640	4847	5061	24700	25350	24750	21880	17710	7088	7816	5782	7838	4813	8128	6291	8846	4601	4002	6394	13930	28620	17000	4898	8316	24250	6759	8121	24490	6039	5289	6370	10550	6625	5523	12220
2021-03-30	2871	5029	8539	8173	9539	9734	11580	3829	23380	30080	18860	4226	17600	8115	8072	8183	13370	22110	100200	6960	17900	9180	5950	25600	4806	25170	6990	48120	10760	6721	28290	6870	14390	30490	5955	24250	6212	9081	7074	9839	17090	14300	5566	13960	7077	10050	8193	8329	15730	12280	12610	3727	8982	20690	21650	6086	4851	4198	7741	11290	3101	5624	14060	37780	23430	2745	7893	30730	8437	7456	10240	4179	19950	3001	22660	11760	7831	26480	30760	2964	4176	4828	8152	6335	4703	17810	9557	8712	6587	5750	2976	7290	29640	12410	5160	6996	4933	5215	5445	8055	3078	4772	13680	8085	6332	3833	10210	5470	22230	7311	11890	4186	12850	5075	20640	7920	7630	20460	4254	8815	6203	6988	26770	6879	8166	4890	26210	5974	5626	24550	7766	7767	7499	6737	14880	8817	5918	7514	19300	12140	33020	17320	24080	9304	61050	35770	4895	21560	6552	6871	48410	20000	12650	3737	2768	52120	7985	26050	2631	3422	16090	2205	3242	6768	12390	19850	4372	6099	7169	23260	8408	35200	1953	5894	8499	6296	5487	9065	2994	9981	12360	4241	6020	17880	17340	7357	30370	8373	4883	22680	9280	9594	15200	9122	14200	13660	10780	32580	9291	6274	9220	4575	10690	2620	20980	6395	6076	4869	20760	6467	5473	6834	7695	1618	1875	22970	33630	5460	5287	23820	4818	6831	42410	14930	15110	14560	5908	4759	5718	7253	15050	1614	5169	7312	4454	5451	4632	5768	8050	5359	8630	11330	14460	14650	22290	7349	7773	17020	8501	5296	5952	20700	15710	19630	5147	3741	22040	5437	15840	13330	11220	18120	5326	5523	2949	10850	9873	5287	2902	11370	6211	17820	7994	4187	991	28530	16180	5643	4851	5065	24750	25380	24760	21890	17730	7095	7819	5785	7840	4820	8133	6296	8854	4613	4004	6400	13950	28640	17010	4902	8324	24260	6764	8129	24510	6048	5297	6376	10560	6631	5534	12230

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-03-23 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-03-23