COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-03-23 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-03-23

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-03-23

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-3012-2712-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3112-2712-2212-2912-2712-2712-292021-01-072021-01-0111-1512-2812-2110-2912-2212-2712-2712-1312-2712-2812-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2711-0312-2112-2612-2512-0812-2712-2112-212021-01-0412-2212-2912-2612-2212-212021-01-0212-2112-212021-01-0212-2612-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-3012-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-212021-01-022021-02-2510-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-2412-2912-2412-2111-0212-2610-3112-2712-2912-2812-2112-2512-2212-2512-1412-232021-01-0612-2112-2312-2812-1812-282021-01-0412-2712-2612-2112-2712-2212-2112-2712-2112-2712-2212-2112-2112-2112-2212-2712-2712-2212-2212-1312-2712-1412-2912-2112-2912-2712-2812-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2212-2812-2812-2510-2812-2112-2712-2712-2912-3012-2712-2812-2112-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2212-212021-01-0412-302021-01-0312-2211-0412-3112-2112-2112-2112-2212-2512-2212-2612-2812-292021-01-0311-0412-2812-0812-2710-2512-2612-212021-03-1012-2112-3011-0312-212021-01-0412-2712-2112-3012-2912-2112-2712-2812-2712-2712-312021-01-0612-292021-01-0212-2912-212021-01-062021-01-0512-2212-2812-2112-2712-2812-1312-3112-1310-1712-3012-2712-2712-252021-01-2612-2812-2912-292021-01-0312-2112-3112-2912-2412-2712-3012-2512-2712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0912-2412-2112-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-212021-01-0312-2510-3112-2212-2812-2111-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-2512-2812-3012-2312-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2312-2112-2112-1212-2312-3012-2112-2212-2812-2212-2612-2110-2812-2812-2712-1812-2512-2112-2112-2212-2112-2712-2512-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2712-2712-2912-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-3012-2112-3012-2612-28
Peak daily increment 61 88 97 180 109 172 178 78 476 588 191 59 326 131 108 108 232 430 1251 74 158 66 58 158 49 485 142 441 228 107 525 155 310 317 107 505 93 188 62 123 123 141 98 255 87 149 171 173 302 90 265 52 200 250 283 60 90 71 66 244 53 95 284 35 367 289 38 184 598 151 69 189 72 246 27 249 187 118 323 539 60 53 76 160 110 52 225 102 165 147 108 54 143 590 271 95 74 54 89 72 125 53 38 122 80 92 56 180 90 449 120 220 59 199 57 398 176 103 340 101 109 135 120 477 101 155 47 444 57 115 450 139 84 134 236 275 148 71 100 297 197 190 312 429 107 380 287 104 444 72 113 730 272 200 89 37 377 90 420 29 46 297 49 62 148 118 362 79 105 63 123 85 722 23 50 159 105 50 41 59 124 122 41 55 275 158 122 225 90 44 126 127 109 154 118 201 104 174 621 83 81 173 52 187 40 133 139 56 96 199 80 86 60 175 36 26 163 451 42 82 405 65 130 244 210 244 169 98 107 101 69 180 27 42 85 82 95 78 110 80 67 102 114 245 294 456 131 152 220 93 57 112 177 132 194 66 42 202 105 322 189 181 125 55 109 46 140 328 91 44 138 123 369 138 49 11 558 153 92 107 85 258 324 451 387 229 77 139 117 160 65 154 87 30 83 42 67 115 216 219 263 83 149 432 106 139 375 106 115 96 173 71 69 186
Days since peak 86 83 86 92 86 105 92 90 87 90 161 86 90 85 71 82 86 91 84 86 86 84 75 81 128 85 92 145 91 86 86 100 86 85 88 92 87 91 83 83 86 140 92 87 88 105 86 92 92 78 91 84 87 91 92 80 92 92 80 87 86 85 84 91 91 83 85 86 86 92 88 92 92 80 26 160 86 106 87 86 89 84 89 92 141 87 143 86 84 85 92 88 91 88 99 90 76 92 90 85 95 85 78 86 87 92 86 91 92 86 92 86 91 92 92 92 91 86 86 91 91 100 86 99 84 92 84 86 85 89 88 92 81 85 86 91 85 85 88 146 92 86 86 84 83 86 85 92 86 86 114 86 86 91 92 78 83 79 91 139 82 92 92 92 91 88 91 87 85 84 79 139 85 105 86 149 87 92 13 92 83 140 92 78 86 92 83 84 92 86 85 86 86 82 76 84 80 84 92 76 77 91 85 92 86 85 100 82 100 157 83 86 86 88 56 85 84 84 79 92 82 84 89 86 83 88 86 92 91 92 85 87 88 78 91 134 89 92 93 79 85 86 91 92 99 85 87 92 79 88 143 91 85 92 142 92 90 91 86 92 106 88 85 83 90 83 78 86 92 90 92 92 101 90 83 92 91 85 91 87 92 146 85 86 95 88 92 92 91 92 86 88 93 100 85 106 91 86 86 84 84 91 91 85 86 91 86 81 85 83 92 83 87 85
Last total 2859 4996 8500 8118 9466 9696 11522 3811 23292 29992 18444 4213 17558 8068 7946 8149 13308 22068 99465 6887 17746 9133 5886 25332 4733 25067 6954 47398 10719 6637 28135 6851 14326 30294 5920 24164 6180 9055 6996 9779 16936 14110 5532 13908 7019 9991 8178 8284 15620 12175 12577 3705 8962 20517 21446 6042 4816 4181 7686 11218 3091 5504 13972 2524 37423 23256 2727 7843 30625 8391 7339 10203 4147 19815 2942 22358 11658 7801 26282 30566 2940 4131 4803 8121 6229 4628 17634 9459 8655 6561 5694 2968 7254 29553 12366 5147 6933 4907 5180 5346 8035 3062 4728 13577 8018 6311 3807 10186 5454 22154 7281 11846 4154 12797 5027 20588 7879 7564 20385 4233 8729 6183 6961 26687 6830 8134 4853 26004 5922 5607 24399 7676 7713 7425 6717 14811 8783 5849 7445 18947 12053 32609 17263 23983 9274 60281 35427 4870 21487 6490 6807 48214 19789 12612 3731 2748 51651 7903 25965 2585 3395 16003 2186 3216 6748 12284 19711 4349 6063 7081 23070 8322 35063 1946 5858 8338 6261 5437 8841 2980 9923 12229 4194 5939 17723 17176 7316 30153 8309 4856 22453 9229 9553 15001 9039 14109 13521 10716 32446 9216 6150 9176 4525 10643 2584 20757 6365 6016 4858 20407 6379 5430 6781 7669 1604 1855 22722 33472 5435 5238 23699 4761 6807 41785 14838 15017 14409 5886 4735 5673 7191 14959 1609 5062 7204 4440 5432 4610 5724 7953 5280 8589 11223 14254 14583 22233 7309 7743 16911 8464 5242 5893 20469 15515 19496 5067 3709 21793 5420 15767 13274 11081 17883 5271 5500 2936 10813 9833 5251 2886 11324 6184 17744 7970 4160 984 28456 16113 5619 4826 5030 24382 25198 24673 21788 17581 7048 7793 5767 7829 4772 8096 6254 1151 8805 4531 3978 6349 13870 28456 16890 4875 8261 24165 6729 8072 24401 5998 5255 6331 10489 6584 5463 12159
Last daily increment 1 13 5 0 20 3 13 3 25 6 63 4 3 6 17 9 10 8 105 10 23 10 2 34 16 5 4 112 6 14 15 1 9 29 9 8 13 4 24 4 25 37 5 11 10 15 5 0 26 16 2 4 5 28 32 5 0 0 14 2 6 29 14 2 117 29 8 7 8 7 11 11 4 18 7 50 11 6 37 18 3 0 2 1 11 9 25 13 6 5 4 0 1 20 0 2 8 3 5 8 3 1 4 29 10 4 2 5 2 25 9 9 8 13 11 9 5 14 22 5 28 4 14 5 1 2 7 24 14 4 29 17 13 14 4 7 7 6 7 43 9 81 7 10 14 135 56 2 11 14 8 22 26 1 0 3 60 11 14 8 8 11 5 0 5 33 22 3 5 20 40 7 17 0 13 19 4 6 42 7 13 40 18 5 26 45 2 30 11 10 40 10 4 25 17 13 23 6 17 26 14 7 4 7 8 30 6 2 1 85 15 5 5 3 3 6 34 48 17 11 13 16 3 120 15 9 22 4 4 5 9 15 0 9 29 2 1 6 5 14 10 5 17 21 10 16 7 1 6 7 3 10 38 43 23 6 6 83 2 8 26 11 28 7 0 1 10 13 5 0 14 7 11 7 1 4 17 18 4 3 3 65 25 15 20 19 4 1 5 4 10 5 6 2 8 11 1 10 9 30 15 9 11 13 2 6 30 7 2 3 12 6 5 14
Last week 8 36 38 38 100 40 59 14 118 78 331 19 36 51 118 34 57 86 683 57 140 55 39 240 62 67 32 693 26 113 148 8 94 191 37 66 51 28 81 62 127 205 32 50 49 62 21 28 132 115 36 24 38 145 196 40 39 20 74 79 17 139 95 5 415 181 21 45 70 43 91 42 25 117 71 390 90 20 217 161 26 34 14 23 74 88 200 92 47 40 45 9 24 91 29 12 52 13 30 81 19 20 38 102 70 13 23 18 11 118 31 71 23 59 46 62 35 65 93 23 106 10 42 59 55 31 40 148 58 16 160 98 56 90 19 58 42 59 53 322 58 391 62 79 59 733 328 23 70 56 43 150 219 46 6 19 413 92 81 29 25 73 18 18 23 96 116 15 34 90 161 61 90 6 32 124 44 44 242 16 51 120 82 67 143 180 35 196 43 35 210 38 42 173 94 74 118 54 127 87 89 39 29 55 21 197 36 45 6 369 104 39 24 14 17 16 174 239 55 79 107 56 14 639 83 84 113 21 18 34 70 98 8 108 113 16 12 24 51 76 72 54 89 162 59 66 39 25 77 41 37 69 204 218 152 63 22 223 13 48 69 130 203 56 15 10 51 78 35 7 73 31 60 31 23 11 85 101 32 24 43 409 157 82 93 136 39 21 21 12 36 41 43 5 60 88 34 57 61 279 126 44 68 80 36 48 133 52 20 42 75 47 47 62
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1910-1110-2410-17 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1210-28 -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --11-02 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-2511-02 --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-29 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- --11-02 --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2709-29 --10-0709-2706-14 -- -- -- --09-28 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- --11-04 -- -- -- --11-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-25 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- --11-0310-26 --10-1310-13 --10-18 --10-12 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-0111-03 --09-30 -- --09-2911-01 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-06 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-17 --10-21 -- -- -- -- --10-05 -- -- -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 --11-03 --10-11 --10-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 62 29 77 72 95 164 99 54 235 135 55 71 321 57 70 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 68 293 144 20 165 29 55 31 32 55 75 41 129 71 25 71 31 56 65 48 42 52 59 360 152 86 541 75 530 611 61 73 391 51 108 58 68 610 256 82 102 95 43 41 42 196 64 43 67 237 232 86 183 435 113 65 24 70 76 118 183 125 31 127 177 46 90 48 138 134 58 22 91 320 137 38 31 65 130
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 9 54 28 19 61 34 27 21 81 19 33 55 9 32 16 55 18 31 14 106 71 9 53 7 18 15 8 17 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 23 18 13 11 14 21 95 19 23 154 15 58 136 19 34 54 14 20 16 7 70 58 19 40 25 13 12 20 62 22 19 14 48 91 18 26 119 34 22 11 28 24 30 46 48 9 58 33 15 31 7 27 34 21 11 19 77 21 9 11 18 16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-24 to 2021-03-30

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-03-23 2859 4996 8500 8118 9466 9696 11522 3811 23292 29992 18444 4213 17558 8068 7946 8149 13308 22068 99465 6887 17746 9133 5886 25332 4733 25067 6954 47398 10719 6637 28135 6851 14326 30294 5920 24164 6180 9055 6996 9779 16936 14110 5532 13908 7019 9991 8178 8284 15620 12175 12577 3705 8962 20517 21446 6042 4816 4181 7686 11218 3091 5504 13972 37423 23256 2727 7843 30625 8391 7339 10203 4147 19815 2942 22358 11658 7801 26282 30566 2940 4131 4803 8121 6229 4628 17634 9459 8655 6561 5694 2968 7254 29553 12366 5147 6933 4907 5180 5346 8035 3062 4728 13577 8018 6311 3807 10186 5454 22154 7281 11846 4154 12797 5027 20588 7879 7564 20385 4233 8729 6183 6961 26687 6830 8134 4853 26004 5922 5607 24399 7676 7713 7425 6717 14811 8783 5849 7445 18947 12053 32609 17263 23983 9274 60281 35427 4870 21487 6490 6807 48214 19789 12612 3731 2748 51651 7903 25965 2585 3395 16003 2186 3216 6748 12284 19711 4349 6063 7081 23070 8322 35063 1946 5858 8338 6261 5437 8841 2980 9923 12229 4194 5939 17723 17176 7316 30153 8309 4856 22453 9229 9553 15001 9039 14109 13521 10716 32446 9216 6150 9176 4525 10643 2584 20757 6365 6016 4858 20407 6379 5430 6781 7669 1604 1855 22722 33472 5435 5238 23699 4761 6807 41785 14838 15017 14409 5886 4735 5673 7191 14959 1609 5062 7204 4440 5432 4610 5724 7953 5280 8589 11223 14254 14583 22233 7309 7743 16911 8464 5242 5893 20469 15515 19496 5067 3709 21793 5420 15767 13274 11081 17883 5271 5500 2936 10813 9833 5251 2886 11324 6184 17744 7970 4160 984 28456 16113 5619 4826 5030 24382 25198 24673 21788 17581 7048 7793 5767 7829 4772 8096 6254 8805 4531 3978 6349 13870 28456 16890 4875 8261 24165 6729 8072 24401 5998 5255 6331 10489 6584 5463 12159
2021-03-24 2861 5002 8518 8140 9472 9699 11540 3814 23310 30020 18500 4217 17580 8076 7966 8156 13320 22080 99600 6898 17770 9140 5895 25380 4748 25100 6960 47490 10720 6637 28160 6853 14340 30330 5924 24180 6186 9059 7001 9787 16970 14120 5536 13920 7030 10000 8180 8290 15640 12190 12580 3708 8966 20560 21480 6049 4816 4183 7697 11230 3094 5507 13970 37480 23290 2730 7851 30640 8398 7363 10210 4152 19860 2951 22370 11680 7805 26300 30620 2944 4138 4811 8126 6243 4640 17670 9483 8669 6561 5708 2969 7259 29570 12370 5149 6942 4911 5190 5369 8042 3063 4735 13590 8030 6318 3813 10190 5461 22170 7287 11860 4159 12810 5034 20600 7886 7572 20420 4236 8743 6188 6966 26700 6838 8138 4857 26030 5931 5611 24420 7689 7722 7429 6720 14820 8785 5859 7462 19020 12070 32670 17270 24000 9276 60380 35500 4874 21500 6500 6826 48270 19830 12610 3732 2761 51720 7909 25980 2591 3403 16020 2189 3219 6752 12310 19740 4352 6070 7098 23100 8347 35110 1947 5867 8353 6266 5445 8875 2980 9940 12250 4203 5952 17750 17190 7322 30190 8335 4861 22480 9243 9560 15070 9041 14130 13560 10730 32470 9229 6167 9184 4531 10650 2589 20810 6365 6024 4860 20430 6393 5436 6788 7673 1606 1858 22790 33510 5440 5238 23730 4769 6811 41940 14860 15050 14450 5891 4739 5684 7199 14980 1609 5077 7209 4442 5438 4613 5726 7967 5294 8594 11240 14290 14590 22240 7315 7749 16950 8469 5261 5902 20510 15520 19540 5084 3713 21870 5422 15780 13280 11100 17930 5280 5506 2938 10820 9842 5256 2894 11330 6188 17760 7970 4164 984 28470 16130 5619 4830 5037 24450 25240 24690 21800 17610 7056 7797 5770 7833 4780 8104 6258 8827 4543 3983 6357 13890 28500 16910 4881 8272 24200 6738 8082 24430 6005 5272 6338 10510 6587 5492 12170
2021-03-25 2863 5008 8529 8158 9482 9706 11550 3817 23310 30050 18550 4220 17600 8089 7987 8163 13340 22080 99800 6914 17800 9147 5909 25410 4761 25130 6965 47600 10740 6646 28180 6861 14350 30360 5926 24190 6189 9062 7008 9803 16990 14150 5540 13930 7037 10010 8181 8296 15650 12230 12590 3711 8974 20590 21490 6061 4819 4186 7704 11250 3096 5516 13980 37510 23330 2732 7858 30670 8414 7377 10210 4161 19890 2967 22420 11700 7814 26330 30660 2945 4156 4815 8137 6258 4644 17700 9498 8683 6561 5719 2970 7269 29570 12380 5154 6962 4917 5198 5385 8048 3067 4745 13600 8048 6323 3817 10210 5468 22180 7297 11870 4166 12820 5044 20610 7894 7578 20440 4239 8752 6193 6972 26720 6845 8147 4865 26070 5940 5615 24440 7704 7735 7432 6721 14830 8791 5872 7474 19080 12080 32720 17290 24020 9286 60470 35570 4878 21510 6510 6838 48310 19850 12620 3734 2770 51780 7922 25990 2596 3410 16030 2191 3222 6757 12330 19790 4358 6076 7111 23130 8362 35130 1949 5874 8369 6268 5453 8879 2982 9954 12270 4203 5980 17770 17210 7328 30230 8348 4865 22510 9252 9570 15110 9051 14150 13580 10730 32490 9236 6190 9191 4543 10660 2594 20840 6371 6032 4862 20480 6396 5439 6810 7679 1609 1859 22830 33560 5440 5245 23760 4773 6817 42060 14870 15070 14470 5894 4744 5690 7209 14990 1609 5095 7217 4445 5444 4616 5730 7990 5306 8605 11260 14320 14610 22260 7321 7754 16970 8476 5273 5904 20560 15550 19580 5094 3723 21920 5427 15800 13280 11130 17960 5288 5511 2943 10830 9842 5263 2897 11340 6191 17770 7970 4172 984 28490 16150 5619 4833 5045 24510 25270 24710 21820 17630 7072 7808 5772 7835 4790 8116 6263 8844 4550 3985 6372 13900 28550 16940 4882 8276 24230 6746 8091 24440 6012 5284 6351 10520 6594 5506 12190
2021-03-26 2865 5013 8537 8166 9491 9714 11560 3820 23320 30060 18600 4222 17610 8099 8009 8168 13350 22090 99900 6927 17820 9155 5920 25450 4767 25150 6973 47700 10750 6663 28210 6866 14360 30390 5931 24210 6194 9065 7016 9810 17010 14170 5544 13940 7043 10010 8183 8302 15670 12250 12600 3714 8981 20620 21520 6071 4823 4188 7712 11260 3100 5530 14000 37550 23360 2734 7866 30700 8425 7390 10220 4167 19910 2980 22460 11720 7821 26350 30680 2948 4169 4821 8145 6272 4651 17740 9519 8690 6563 5729 2970 7277 29590 12390 5158 6977 4922 5203 5400 8051 3070 4754 13620 8062 6326 3823 10220 5469 22190 7305 11870 4172 12830 5052 20620 7900 7588 20460 4241 8763 6196 6977 26730 6852 8153 4874 26100 5949 5619 24470 7718 7746 7441 6724 14840 8797 5883 7487 19140 12090 32770 17300 24030 9290 60590 35620 4882 21520 6519 6847 48340 19880 12620 3735 2778 51840 7935 26010 2601 3416 16040 2193 3225 6762 12350 19830 4363 6081 7122 23160 8372 35150 1950 5880 8384 6271 5460 8897 2983 9964 12290 4203 6001 17790 17230 7335 30270 8356 4870 22540 9256 9579 15140 9064 14160 13610 10740 32510 9245 6209 9198 4552 10670 2599 20870 6377 6040 4863 20530 6404 5443 6825 7684 1611 1861 22860 33600 5440 5254 23780 4779 6822 42190 14890 15080 14480 5900 4749 5698 7224 15010 1610 5109 7228 4448 5447 4620 5738 8008 5316 8615 11270 14340 14620 22270 7327 7758 17000 8482 5283 5909 20590 15570 19600 5104 3730 21970 5431 15810 13280 11150 17990 5294 5515 2947 10840 9844 5269 2899 11340 6194 17780 7974 4179 984 28500 16170 5619 4836 5052 24580 25300 24720 21840 17650 7083 7816 5774 7837 4799 8124 6271 8855 4559 3988 6381 13910 28580 16960 4885 8283 24250 6754 8100 24460 6019 5289 6360 10540 6600 5522 12200
2021-03-27 2866 5019 8543 8174 9502 9717 11570 3823 23330 30070 18650 4224 17620 8108 8023 8171 13370 22100 100000 6939 17830 9163 5930 25490 4773 25160 6977 47790 10750 6668 28220 6870 14370 30420 5933 24220 6199 9068 7022 9814 17010 14190 5548 13950 7048 10020 8185 8308 15690 12270 12610 3717 8984 20630 21550 6079 4825 4192 7722 11280 3101 5553 14000 37590 23370 2736 7873 30710 8434 7403 10220 4172 19930 2991 22480 11720 7826 26370 30710 2951 4179 4823 8152 6286 4660 17770 9529 8695 6568 5733 2972 7283 29590 12400 5161 6989 4926 5207 5409 8054 3072 4761 13620 8075 6329 3827 10230 5471 22200 7311 11880 4177 12840 5060 20630 7906 7592 20470 4244 8775 6196 6982 26750 6860 8159 4877 26130 5957 5622 24490 7727 7748 7443 6726 14850 8802 5893 7493 19180 12110 32820 17310 24050 9298 60670 35680 4886 21530 6529 6854 48370 19910 12630 3736 2782 51890 7945 26020 2607 3418 16050 2196 3228 6766 12360 19860 4366 6087 7131 23180 8383 35170 1951 5885 8399 6276 5468 8920 2984 9968 12310 4208 6017 17810 17240 7341 30310 8364 4875 22560 9262 9586 15160 9073 14170 13630 10750 32520 9255 6227 9202 4560 10680 2603 20890 6379 6048 4864 20550 6414 5447 6835 7688 1613 1863 22880 33630 5441 5258 23790 4785 6826 42300 14900 15100 14490 5901 4753 5703 7229 15020 1610 5120 7235 4450 5448 4623 5742 8023 5324 8622 11290 14360 14630 22280 7333 7762 17000 8487 5289 5916 20610 15600 19630 5110 3736 22020 5433 15820 13290 11160 18010 5301 5519 2950 10840 9849 5274 2901 11350 6198 17800 7976 4184 984 28520 16180 5622 4840 5059 24620 25320 24740 21850 17670 7093 7821 5775 7838 4807 8130 6274 8862 4569 3993 6383 13920 28610 16970 4889 8291 24260 6759 8105 24480 6026 5291 6368 10550 6607 5527 12210
2021-03-28 2868 5024 8548 8185 9517 9723 11580 3826 23340 30090 18700 4228 17620 8116 8035 8175 13380 22110 100100 6950 17850 9171 5939 25520 4782 25180 6982 47860 10760 6679 28240 6873 14380 30440 5938 24230 6205 9072 7031 9823 17030 14220 5552 13960 7059 10020 8187 8314 15700 12290 12620 3720 8990 20660 21570 6087 4832 4196 7731 11290 3102 5562 14010 37640 23400 2739 7880 30730 8443 7418 10230 4178 19950 3001 22540 11740 7831 26400 30740 2954 4189 4828 8158 6300 4669 17800 9541 8702 6572 5743 2973 7289 29610 12400 5163 7000 4930 5213 5420 8058 3075 4768 13640 8087 6332 3828 10240 5473 22220 7318 11890 4182 12850 5067 20640 7912 7604 20490 4247 8787 6199 6987 26760 6868 8164 4884 26160 5966 5626 24510 7744 7758 7455 6729 14860 8807 5903 7504 19230 12120 32880 17320 24060 9306 60770 35720 4889 21540 6538 6862 48390 19940 12640 3737 2786 51960 7962 26030 2612 3423 16060 2199 3231 6770 12370 19890 4370 6093 7139 23210 8392 35190 1952 5889 8413 6281 5475 8946 2987 9977 12330 4214 6033 17830 17270 7347 30340 8374 4879 22580 9269 9594 15190 9082 14190 13650 10760 32540 9265 6245 9207 4568 10690 2608 20920 6382 6056 4865 20590 6425 5453 6845 7692 1615 1865 22910 33660 5444 5265 23820 4792 6830 42410 14910 15110 14510 5904 4757 5712 7235 15030 1611 5135 7247 4452 5454 4626 5747 8038 5339 8630 11310 14390 14640 22290 7339 7767 17020 8495 5299 5923 20640 15620 19650 5121 3741 22080 5436 15830 13300 11190 18050 5315 5522 2953 10850 9855 5279 2905 11360 6202 17810 7980 4189 984 28530 16200 5627 4843 5065 24660 25350 24750 21870 17690 7103 7827 5778 7841 4814 8139 6279 8875 4579 3997 6393 13930 28660 17000 4894 8300 24270 6765 8113 24500 6033 5297 6376 10560 6613 5533 12220
2021-03-29 2870 5029 8558 8195 9537 9729 11590 3828 23360 30110 18760 4232 17630 8124 8056 8181 13390 22120 100300 6961 17870 9179 5948 25560 4796 25190 6988 48000 10760 6705 28270 6876 14400 30490 5946 24240 6211 9075 7040 9833 17050 14260 5557 13970 7069 10030 8189 8319 15720 12310 12620 3723 8995 20690 21600 6094 4840 4200 7741 11300 3107 5585 14030 37690 23430 2741 7888 30750 8450 7440 10230 4182 19970 3011 22610 11750 7835 26440 30770 2957 4197 4832 8163 6313 4680 17840 9557 8716 6577 5751 2974 7295 29630 12410 5166 7009 4933 5220 5441 8059 3079 4775 13660 8099 6335 3833 10250 5475 22230 7324 11900 4186 12850 5074 20650 7918 7618 20510 4250 8800 6200 6992 26770 6876 8168 4889 26190 5973 5629 24530 7762 7765 7479 6731 14870 8813 5913 7516 19290 12130 32960 17330 24070 9315 60910 35770 4893 21550 6547 6867 48420 19970 12650 3738 2793 52040 7974 26050 2618 3428 16070 2201 3234 6774 12380 19920 4373 6099 7155 23240 8410 35200 1953 5895 8428 6286 5483 8975 2988 9986 12350 4221 6047 17850 17300 7353 30370 8380 4884 22620 9281 9601 15230 9097 14200 13670 10760 32560 9276 6262 9216 4575 10700 2612 20960 6389 6064 4866 20670 6437 5458 6853 7696 1617 1868 22950 33710 5449 5277 23830 4800 6833 42550 14930 15130 14530 5909 4760 5716 7247 15050 1612 5165 7268 4454 5457 4630 5760 8052 5351 8636 11320 14410 14640 22300 7345 7771 17040 8501 5305 5932 20670 15660 19690 5133 3746 22120 5439 15840 13310 11210 18090 5323 5525 2955 10870 9862 5284 2906 11370 6206 17820 7985 4194 987 28550 16220 5635 4847 5072 24740 25380 24770 21890 17710 7111 7831 5783 7843 4822 8144 6291 8884 4590 4001 6401 13940 28720 17030 4899 8309 24290 6770 8122 24530 6040 5297 6383 10570 6622 5542 12230
2021-03-30 2871 5035 8564 8199 9553 9732 11600 3831 23370 30120 18810 4235 17630 8132 8075 8188 13400 22130 100400 6971 17900 9187 5956 25600 4812 25200 6993 48110 10770 6718 28280 6878 14410 30510 5954 24260 6218 9079 7060 9839 17080 14290 5561 13980 7076 10040 8191 8325 15740 12330 12630 3726 9000 20720 21630 6100 4842 4202 7752 11310 3110 5608 14040 37740 23460 2744 7895 30760 8457 7452 10240 4186 19990 3020 22650 11760 7840 26470 30790 2961 4204 4835 8168 6327 4691 17870 9570 8722 6580 5758 2975 7300 29640 12410 5168 7018 4937 5224 5450 8062 3081 4781 13680 8110 6339 3836 10250 5478 22240 7330 11910 4190 12860 5081 20660 7924 7629 20530 4253 8813 6203 6997 26780 6884 8173 4895 26220 5981 5633 24550 7777 7777 7491 6734 14880 8819 5922 7523 19340 12140 33030 17340 24090 9326 61020 35820 4896 21560 6556 6875 48440 20010 12650 3739 2797 52100 7985 26060 2624 3435 16080 2204 3236 6778 12410 19950 4376 6104 7172 23260 8420 35220 1954 5906 8443 6291 5490 9006 2992 9998 12370 4229 6059 17880 17330 7359 30400 8390 4888 22660 9289 9609 15250 9111 14210 13690 10770 32580 9288 6278 9224 4581 10710 2616 21000 6394 6072 4866 20740 6450 5464 6860 7699 1619 1871 22980 33750 5454 5286 23850 4808 6836 42640 14940 15140 14550 5913 4763 5721 7258 15070 1613 5176 7290 4456 5458 4633 5764 8066 5361 8642 11340 14430 14650 22310 7351 7775 17050 8507 5312 5940 20710 15700 19710 5140 3750 22170 5441 15850 13330 11220 18120 5330 5529 2957 10870 9870 5289 2907 11380 6210 17830 7991 4198 989 28560 16230 5639 4851 5078 24800 25400 24780 21900 17730 7119 7835 5787 7847 4829 8149 6296 8894 4602 4006 6410 13950 28750 17040 4905 8319 24300 6774 8127 24550 6048 5304 6390 10580 6628 5550 12240

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-24 to 2021-03-30

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-03-23 2859 4996 8500 8118 9466 9696 11522 3811 23292 29992 18444 4213 17558 8068 7946 8149 13308 22068 99465 6887 17746 9133 5886 25332 4733 25067 6954 47398 10719 6637 28135 6851 14326 30294 5920 24164 6180 9055 6996 9779 16936 14110 5532 13908 7019 9991 8178 8284 15620 12175 12577 3705 8962 20517 21446 6042 4816 4181 7686 11218 3091 5504 13972 37423 23256 2727 7843 30625 8391 7339 10203 4147 19815 2942 22358 11658 7801 26282 30566 2940 4131 4803 8121 6229 4628 17634 9459 8655 6561 5694 2968 7254 29553 12366 5147 6933 4907 5180 5346 8035 3062 4728 13577 8018 6311 3807 10186 5454 22154 7281 11846 4154 12797 5027 20588 7879 7564 20385 4233 8729 6183 6961 26687 6830 8134 4853 26004 5922 5607 24399 7676 7713 7425 6717 14811 8783 5849 7445 18947 12053 32609 17263 23983 9274 60281 35427 4870 21487 6490 6807 48214 19789 12612 3731 2748 51651 7903 25965 2585 3395 16003 2186 3216 6748 12284 19711 4349 6063 7081 23070 8322 35063 1946 5858 8338 6261 5437 8841 2980 9923 12229 4194 5939 17723 17176 7316 30153 8309 4856 22453 9229 9553 15001 9039 14109 13521 10716 32446 9216 6150 9176 4525 10643 2584 20757 6365 6016 4858 20407 6379 5430 6781 7669 1604 1855 22722 33472 5435 5238 23699 4761 6807 41785 14838 15017 14409 5886 4735 5673 7191 14959 1609 5062 7204 4440 5432 4610 5724 7953 5280 8589 11223 14254 14583 22233 7309 7743 16911 8464 5242 5893 20469 15515 19496 5067 3709 21793 5420 15767 13274 11081 17883 5271 5500 2936 10813 9833 5251 2886 11324 6184 17744 7970 4160 984 28456 16113 5619 4826 5030 24382 25198 24673 21788 17581 7048 7793 5767 7829 4772 8096 6254 8805 4531 3978 6349 13870 28456 16890 4875 8261 24165 6729 8072 24401 5998 5255 6331 10489 6584 5463 12159
2021-03-24 2860 5003 8508 8123 9482 9702 11530 3814 23310 30010 18510 4217 17570 8076 7964 8156 13320 22080 99600 6898 17770 9142 5897 25370 4745 25080 6959 47510 10730 6650 28160 6853 14340 30330 5927 24180 6190 9059 7011 9788 16960 14140 5537 13920 7029 10000 8181 8291 15640 12190 12580 3709 8966 20540 21490 6048 4820 4184 7697 11230 3095 5525 13990 37490 23290 2731 7851 30640 8399 7358 10210 4152 19840 2951 22420 11680 7806 26310 30590 2943 4137 4804 8125 6243 4639 17660 9477 8663 6567 5700 2969 7258 29570 12370 5149 6941 4911 5186 5365 8038 3064 4735 13600 8029 6313 3811 10190 5456 22170 7287 11860 4160 12810 5035 20600 7885 7575 20400 4237 8746 6185 6969 26700 6838 8138 4858 26030 5933 5608 24420 7692 7721 7442 6721 14820 8789 5858 7456 19000 12070 32680 17270 24000 9280 60420 35480 4874 21500 6500 6817 48240 19820 12620 3732 2753 51720 7915 25980 2592 3400 16020 2190 3219 6751 12310 19730 4352 6068 7104 23100 8334 35090 1947 5864 8360 6267 5445 8877 2984 9932 12260 4206 5949 17750 17210 7322 30190 8324 4862 22490 9238 9561 15050 9054 14120 13540 10730 32470 9232 6167 9182 4531 10650 2590 20800 6369 6023 4860 20470 6393 5437 6788 7672 1607 1859 22760 33510 5441 5248 23720 4771 6810 41900 14850 15030 14440 5890 4739 5681 7199 14980 1610 5076 7225 4442 5434 4614 5731 7967 5292 8595 11240 14290 14590 22240 7315 7747 16930 8470 5248 5903 20500 15550 19520 5082 3714 21840 5423 15780 13290 11100 17920 5280 5503 2939 10820 9843 5256 2889 11330 6189 17750 7975 4164 986 28470 16130 5623 4830 5036 24450 25230 24690 21810 17600 7054 7796 5771 7832 4780 8102 6262 8814 4542 3983 6357 13880 28500 16910 4880 8273 24180 6734 8079 24430 6005 5260 6338 10500 6590 5476 12170
2021-03-25 2862 5007 8514 8133 9492 9708 11540 3817 23320 30030 18570 4218 17570 8084 7983 8161 13330 22080 99700 6909 17790 9150 5907 25410 4756 25100 6964 47610 10730 6661 28180 6857 14350 30360 5931 24190 6193 9063 7022 9800 16990 14170 5542 13920 7036 10010 8183 8297 15650 12210 12590 3713 8969 20570 21510 6056 4825 4187 7705 11240 3096 5539 14000 37540 23320 2733 7858 30660 8406 7374 10210 4158 19860 2963 22480 11690 7811 26340 30620 2946 4145 4807 8132 6260 4650 17690 9489 8673 6571 5709 2970 7265 29580 12380 5151 6954 4915 5192 5379 8042 3067 4742 13610 8042 6316 3814 10190 5459 22180 7292 11860 4165 12820 5043 20610 7891 7583 20420 4240 8757 6188 6972 26710 6846 8144 4865 26070 5940 5612 24450 7704 7730 7450 6724 14830 8794 5869 7466 19050 12080 32730 17280 24010 9286 60530 35530 4878 21510 6507 6828 48270 19850 12620 3733 2756 51790 7927 25990 2599 3403 16030 2192 3223 6755 12320 19750 4356 6073 7118 23130 8347 35110 1948 5869 8386 6272 5452 8904 2986 9942 12280 4209 5964 17770 17230 7327 30220 8333 4865 22520 9244 9568 15070 9065 14140 13560 10730 32490 9240 6187 9188 4540 10660 2596 20830 6374 6032 4862 20510 6404 5442 6798 7676 1608 1861 22800 33530 5445 5256 23740 4779 6815 41990 14860 15040 14460 5892 4743 5687 7207 14990 1611 5092 7238 4444 5438 4617 5736 7983 5303 8604 11250 14320 14600 22250 7321 7752 16940 8475 5256 5910 20540 15570 19540 5094 3720 21880 5426 15790 13290 11120 17950 5286 5507 2941 10830 9846 5262 2891 11340 6192 17760 7977 4170 987 28480 16140 5625 4833 5044 24510 25250 24700 21820 17630 7063 7801 5773 7833 4786 8107 6266 8824 4553 3987 6369 13890 28530 16930 4884 8281 24200 6740 8089 24440 6012 5269 6344 10510 6597 5486 12180
2021-03-26 2864 5011 8519 8137 9498 9715 11550 3819 23340 30040 18620 4219 17580 8091 8003 8164 13340 22090 99800 6919 17810 9155 5915 25450 4764 25110 6970 47720 10740 6676 28200 6860 14360 30390 5936 24200 6197 9066 7032 9808 17010 14190 5547 13930 7044 10020 8186 8304 15670 12220 12590 3715 8972 20590 21540 6061 4831 4189 7711 11250 3097 5555 14010 37580 23340 2736 7864 30670 8413 7389 10220 4163 19880 2971 22520 11710 7815 26370 30640 2950 4152 4811 8137 6276 4660 17720 9506 8680 6574 5718 2971 7270 29590 12390 5154 6964 4919 5196 5392 8044 3069 4748 13620 8052 6319 3819 10200 5461 22190 7296 11870 4170 12820 5050 20610 7897 7592 20420 4243 8769 6191 6976 26730 6854 8150 4871 26100 5947 5613 24470 7715 7737 7460 6726 14840 8799 5879 7477 19110 12090 32790 17290 24030 9288 60640 35580 4881 21520 6515 6837 48300 19880 12630 3734 2759 51850 7939 26010 2606 3407 16040 2195 3227 6756 12340 19770 4360 6077 7128 23160 8357 35120 1949 5872 8411 6277 5459 8934 2987 9950 12290 4214 5976 17790 17250 7333 30260 8339 4869 22560 9249 9573 15090 9078 14150 13580 10740 32510 9248 6205 9195 4547 10670 2601 20860 6379 6041 4863 20570 6416 5449 6806 7680 1610 1864 22830 33550 5447 5264 23750 4787 6818 42070 14880 15060 14480 5896 4747 5694 7220 15000 1611 5106 7253 4446 5439 4620 5744 7998 5314 8612 11270 14350 14610 22260 7327 7756 16960 8480 5264 5918 20570 15600 19560 5104 3726 21910 5429 15800 13300 11140 17990 5293 5510 2943 10830 9849 5268 2893 11350 6196 17770 7981 4173 987 28490 16140 5627 4837 5049 24570 25280 24720 21840 17650 7070 7805 5775 7835 4793 8112 6274 8829 4565 3990 6377 13900 28550 16940 4887 8289 24220 6746 8098 24450 6019 5274 6350 10520 6603 5498 12190
2021-03-27 2865 5015 8524 8143 9508 9719 11560 3822 23350 30050 18680 4220 17590 8097 8019 8168 13350 22090 99900 6929 17830 9160 5924 25490 4771 25130 6974 47810 10740 6684 28220 6862 14370 30410 5939 24220 6200 9070 7041 9814 17020 14220 5552 13940 7051 10030 8187 8309 15690 12230 12600 3719 8974 20610 21570 6067 4835 4192 7716 11260 3098 5576 14020 37630 23360 2738 7871 30690 8419 7405 10220 4167 19900 2979 22540 11720 7819 26390 30660 2953 4158 4813 8141 6291 4670 17740 9518 8686 6580 5723 2972 7275 29600 12390 5155 6970 4923 5200 5401 8047 3072 4754 13630 8060 6321 3822 10200 5462 22200 7300 11870 4174 12830 5056 20620 7903 7598 20430 4245 8780 6193 6979 26740 6861 8154 4875 26120 5953 5615 24490 7725 7741 7466 6729 14850 8804 5889 7482 19150 12100 32830 17300 24040 9292 60730 35630 4884 21530 6522 6845 48320 19910 12630 3734 2761 51910 7950 26020 2612 3410 16050 2197 3231 6758 12350 19790 4363 6082 7136 23180 8368 35140 1950 5876 8430 6281 5466 8966 2988 9954 12310 4220 5987 17810 17270 7339 30290 8345 4872 22580 9254 9579 15110 9089 14160 13600 10750 32530 9256 6223 9198 4554 10680 2606 20880 6382 6050 4865 20600 6428 5455 6814 7683 1612 1866 22850 33570 5450 5270 23770 4794 6822 42160 14890 15070 14490 5898 4750 5699 7225 15010 1612 5119 7263 4448 5441 4623 5749 8009 5323 8617 11280 14370 14620 22270 7332 7760 16970 8485 5269 5926 20600 15630 19580 5113 3729 21940 5430 15810 13310 11160 18020 5300 5513 2944 10830 9854 5272 2895 11350 6200 17780 7984 4176 988 28500 16150 5631 4840 5053 24610 25300 24730 21850 17670 7076 7809 5777 7835 4799 8117 6277 8833 4577 3993 6378 13910 28560 16960 4891 8297 24220 6750 8104 24460 6025 5278 6357 10530 6611 5504 12200
2021-03-28 2867 5019 8528 8152 9519 9725 11570 3824 23360 30060 18740 4222 17590 8103 8033 8171 13350 22100 100000 6939 17850 9167 5930 25520 4781 25140 6979 47900 10750 6695 28240 6865 14380 30430 5943 24230 6204 9073 7051 9822 17040 14250 5556 13940 7059 10030 8189 8315 15700 12250 12600 3722 8977 20630 21590 6073 4841 4194 7725 11270 3099 5589 14030 37680 23380 2740 7877 30700 8426 7421 10230 4170 19910 2986 22590 11730 7823 26410 30690 2957 4164 4818 8145 6306 4681 17760 9529 8693 6583 5732 2974 7280 29620 12400 5157 6979 4926 5205 5411 8051 3074 4759 13650 8069 6324 3824 10200 5464 22210 7304 11880 4178 12840 5062 20630 7908 7608 20440 4248 8791 6196 6982 26750 6869 8158 4880 26150 5960 5617 24510 7739 7750 7475 6732 14860 8808 5899 7493 19200 12110 32890 17310 24050 9296 60820 35670 4888 21540 6530 6854 48350 19940 12640 3735 2763 51970 7963 26030 2619 3414 16060 2200 3234 6761 12360 19810 4366 6088 7142 23210 8379 35160 1951 5881 8453 6286 5473 8998 2991 9962 12330 4227 5997 17830 17290 7345 30310 8352 4876 22620 9261 9585 15140 9099 14170 13620 10760 32540 9267 6240 9204 4561 10680 2611 20910 6386 6059 4866 20630 6441 5460 6821 7686 1614 1869 22890 33590 5453 5276 23790 4802 6825 42240 14900 15080 14510 5901 4753 5707 7230 15030 1613 5133 7274 4450 5446 4626 5754 8022 5337 8622 11300 14400 14630 22270 7338 7765 16980 8490 5278 5934 20630 15650 19590 5123 3733 21970 5433 15820 13310 11180 18050 5311 5516 2946 10840 9861 5278 2898 11360 6203 17790 7988 4179 988 28510 16160 5635 4843 5057 24640 25330 24740 21860 17690 7082 7813 5779 7837 4806 8124 6281 8839 4589 3997 6386 13920 28590 16970 4895 8306 24230 6755 8112 24470 6031 5284 6364 10540 6617 5513 12210
2021-03-29 2869 5024 8534 8163 9530 9730 11580 3826 23370 30070 18800 4224 17600 8109 8052 8178 13360 22100 100100 6949 17880 9174 5940 25560 4794 25150 6985 48010 10750 6711 28270 6867 14390 30470 5950 24240 6208 9077 7060 9831 17060 14280 5561 13950 7069 10040 8191 8323 15720 12260 12600 3724 8980 20660 21620 6079 4846 4196 7732 11280 3100 5607 14050 37730 23410 2743 7884 30710 8431 7440 10230 4175 19930 2994 22630 11750 7827 26450 30730 2961 4170 4824 8149 6321 4693 17790 9543 8704 6585 5740 2975 7285 29630 12400 5158 6988 4929 5211 5430 8053 3077 4766 13660 8077 6328 3829 10200 5466 22220 7307 11880 4182 12850 5069 20630 7914 7621 20450 4251 8803 6200 6985 26760 6874 8162 4885 26180 5968 5622 24530 7754 7758 7490 6734 14870 8813 5908 7507 19250 12130 32960 17310 24070 9301 60950 35720 4892 21550 6541 6862 48380 19970 12650 3736 2766 52050 7975 26040 2625 3417 16070 2203 3238 6765 12370 19830 4369 6094 7157 23230 8395 35180 1952 5886 8478 6291 5480 9031 2992 9972 12340 4234 6007 17850 17310 7351 30340 8364 4879 22650 9272 9590 15170 9111 14190 13640 10770 32560 9281 6257 9213 4568 10690 2615 20950 6391 6067 4868 20700 6454 5467 6827 7690 1616 1872 22930 33610 5456 5282 23810 4810 6828 42340 14910 15100 14540 5906 4756 5713 7242 15040 1614 5154 7293 4452 5449 4629 5763 8035 5348 8624 11310 14430 14640 22280 7343 7769 17000 8496 5286 5943 20670 15680 19610 5136 3737 22010 5435 15830 13320 11200 18090 5319 5520 2948 10850 9868 5283 2900 11360 6207 17810 7991 4184 990 28520 16170 5640 4847 5061 24700 25350 24750 21880 17710 7088 7816 5782 7838 4813 8128 6291 8846 4601 4002 6394 13930 28620 17000 4898 8316 24250 6759 8121 24490 6039 5289 6370 10550 6625 5523 12220
2021-03-30 2871 5029 8539 8173 9539 9734 11580 3829 23380 30080 18860 4226 17600 8115 8072 8183 13370 22110 100200 6960 17900 9180 5950 25600 4806 25170 6990 48120 10760 6721 28290 6870 14390 30490 5955 24250 6212 9081 7074 9839 17090 14300 5566 13960 7077 10050 8193 8329 15730 12280 12610 3727 8982 20690 21650 6086 4851 4198 7741 11290 3101 5624 14060 37780 23430 2745 7893 30730 8437 7456 10240 4179 19950 3001 22660 11760 7831 26480 30760 2964 4176 4828 8152 6335 4703 17810 9557 8712 6587 5750 2976 7290 29640 12410 5160 6996 4933 5215 5445 8055 3078 4772 13680 8085 6332 3833 10210 5470 22230 7311 11890 4186 12850 5075 20640 7920 7630 20460 4254 8815 6203 6988 26770 6879 8166 4890 26210 5974 5626 24550 7766 7767 7499 6737 14880 8817 5918 7514 19300 12140 33020 17320 24080 9304 61050 35770 4895 21560 6552 6871 48410 20000 12650 3737 2768 52120 7985 26050 2631 3422 16090 2205 3242 6768 12390 19850 4372 6099 7169 23260 8408 35200 1953 5894 8499 6296 5487 9065 2994 9981 12360 4241 6020 17880 17340 7357 30370 8373 4883 22680 9280 9594 15200 9122 14200 13660 10780 32580 9291 6274 9220 4575 10690 2620 20980 6395 6076 4869 20760 6467 5473 6834 7695 1618 1875 22970 33630 5460 5287 23820 4818 6831 42410 14930 15110 14560 5908 4759 5718 7253 15050 1614 5169 7312 4454 5451 4632 5768 8050 5359 8630 11330 14460 14650 22290 7349 7773 17020 8501 5296 5952 20700 15710 19630 5147 3741 22040 5437 15840 13330 11220 18120 5326 5523 2949 10850 9873 5287 2902 11370 6211 17820 7994 4187 991 28530 16180 5643 4851 5065 24750 25380 24760 21890 17730 7095 7819 5785 7840 4820 8133 6296 8854 4613 4004 6400 13950 28640 17010 4902 8324 24260 6764 8129 24510 6048 5297 6376 10560 6631 5534 12230

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.