COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-03-29 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-03-29

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-03-29

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-3012-2712-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3012-272021-03-1712-2912-2712-272021-01-032021-01-072021-01-0111-1512-2812-2210-2912-2212-2712-2712-1312-2712-2812-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2711-0312-2112-2612-2512-0812-2712-2112-212021-01-0412-2212-2912-2612-2212-212021-01-0212-2112-212021-01-0212-2612-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-3012-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-212021-01-022021-01-1210-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-2412-2912-2412-2111-0212-2610-3112-2712-2912-2812-2112-2512-2212-2512-1412-232021-01-0612-2112-2312-2812-1812-282021-01-0412-2712-2612-2112-2712-2212-2112-2712-2112-2712-2212-2112-2112-2112-2212-2712-2712-2212-2212-1312-2712-1412-2912-2112-2912-2712-2812-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2212-2812-2812-2510-2812-2110-2712-2712-2912-3012-2712-2812-2112-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2212-212021-01-0412-302021-01-0312-2211-0412-2912-2112-2112-2112-2212-2512-2212-2612-2812-292021-01-0311-0412-2812-0812-2710-2512-2612-212021-03-1612-2112-3011-0312-212021-01-0412-2712-2112-3012-2912-2112-2712-2812-2712-2712-312021-01-0612-292021-01-0212-2912-212021-01-062021-01-0512-2212-2812-2112-2712-2812-1312-3112-1310-1712-3012-2712-2712-252021-01-2612-2812-2912-292021-01-0312-2112-3112-2912-2412-2712-3012-2512-2712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0912-2412-2112-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-212021-01-0312-2510-3112-2212-2812-2111-0112-2112-2312-2612-2712-2112-0712-2512-2812-3012-2312-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2312-2112-2112-1212-2312-3012-2112-2212-2812-2212-2612-2110-2812-2812-2712-1812-2512-2112-2112-2212-2112-2712-2512-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2712-2712-2912-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-3012-2112-3012-2612-28
Peak daily increment 61 88 97 180 109 172 178 78 476 588 191 59 326 131 108 108 232 30 1251 74 158 66 58 158 49 485 141 441 228 107 525 155 310 317 108 505 93 188 62 123 123 141 98 255 87 149 171 173 301 90 265 52 200 250 283 60 90 71 66 244 53 95 284 35 368 289 38 184 598 151 69 189 72 246 25 249 187 118 323 539 60 53 76 160 110 52 225 102 164 147 108 54 143 590 271 94 74 53 89 72 125 53 38 122 80 92 56 180 90 449 120 220 59 199 57 398 175 103 340 101 109 135 120 477 101 155 47 443 57 115 450 139 84 134 236 276 148 71 100 297 197 360 312 429 107 380 287 104 444 71 113 730 272 200 90 37 377 90 420 29 46 297 49 62 148 119 362 79 105 63 123 85 726 23 50 159 105 50 42 58 124 121 41 55 275 158 122 225 90 44 126 127 109 154 118 201 104 174 621 83 81 173 52 187 40 133 139 56 96 199 80 85 60 175 36 26 163 451 42 82 405 65 130 244 210 244 167 98 107 101 69 180 27 42 85 82 95 79 110 80 67 102 114 245 294 456 131 152 220 93 57 112 177 132 194 66 42 201 105 322 189 181 125 55 109 46 140 321 91 44 138 123 369 138 49 11 558 153 92 107 85 258 324 451 387 229 77 139 117 160 65 154 87 30 83 42 67 115 217 219 263 83 149 432 106 139 375 106 115 96 173 71 69 186
Days since peak 92 89 92 98 92 111 98 96 93 96 167 92 96 91 77 89 92 12 90 92 92 85 81 87 134 91 97 151 97 92 92 106 92 91 94 98 93 97 89 89 92 146 98 93 94 111 92 98 98 84 97 90 93 97 98 86 98 98 86 93 92 91 90 97 97 89 91 92 92 98 94 98 98 86 76 166 92 112 93 92 95 90 95 98 147 93 149 92 90 91 98 94 97 94 105 96 82 98 96 91 101 91 84 92 93 98 92 97 98 92 98 92 97 98 98 98 97 92 92 97 97 106 92 105 90 98 90 92 91 95 94 98 87 91 92 97 91 91 94 152 98 153 92 90 89 92 91 98 92 92 120 92 92 97 98 84 89 85 97 145 90 98 98 98 97 94 97 93 91 90 85 145 91 111 92 155 93 98 13 98 89 146 98 84 92 98 89 90 98 92 91 92 92 88 82 90 86 90 98 82 83 97 91 98 92 91 106 88 106 163 89 92 92 94 62 91 90 90 85 98 88 90 95 92 89 94 92 98 97 98 91 93 94 84 97 140 95 98 99 85 91 92 97 98 105 91 93 98 85 94 149 97 91 98 148 98 96 93 92 98 112 94 91 89 96 89 84 92 98 96 98 98 107 96 89 98 97 91 97 93 98 152 91 92 101 94 98 98 97 98 92 94 99 106 91 112 97 92 92 90 90 97 97 91 92 97 92 87 91 89 98 89 93 91
Last total 2868 5013 8545 8156 9529 9730 11581 3821 23378 30104 18716 4222 17588 8120 7999 8170 13361 22207 100094 6946 17880 9158 5905 25603 4803 25138 6998 47961 10765 6686 28248 6864 14388 30474 5978 24230 6210 9074 7065 9828 17039 14248 5578 13951 7060 10047 8191 8303 15746 12294 12614 3723 8989 20642 21568 6077 4842 4205 7746 11269 3111 5624 14054 2533 37538 23409 2753 7883 30695 8439 7380 10267 4170 19924 2963 22725 11737 7833 26494 30713 2968 4163 4825 8147 6297 4708 17763 9531 8711 6597 5762 2973 7283 29633 12396 5192 6968 4933 5206 5402 8051 3079 4751 13621 8067 6335 3827 10203 5467 22236 7303 11892 4167 12863 5048 20667 7898 7581 20518 4280 8763 6186 6995 26759 6876 8163 4898 26140 6020 5631 24514 7743 7755 7491 6730 14866 8841 5912 7489 19205 12108 32964 17301 24052 9316 61024 35740 4886 21556 6525 6839 48359 20000 12648 3744 2762 52110 7987 26035 2624 3414 16076 2204 3241 6776 12310 19821 4362 6100 7171 23171 8358 35173 1951 5895 8450 6306 5479 9025 2992 9962 12293 4271 6007 17838 17262 7353 30333 8375 4883 22663 9307 9580 15171 9129 14174 13642 10764 32563 9222 6201 9198 4549 10701 2590 20930 6390 6048 4867 20739 6450 5459 6811 7690 1624 1858 22912 33741 5460 5290 23763 4822 6829 42345 14902 15135 14492 5913 4751 5718 7250 15047 1620 5148 7344 4452 5460 4631 5784 8003 5373 8621 11252 14400 14645 22291 7348 7765 16973 8490 5268 5948 20624 15651 19672 5101 3727 21861 5439 15826 13331 11223 18081 5333 5518 2949 10842 9892 5285 2895 11373 6207 17793 7998 4181 987 28551 16271 5645 4839 5074 24761 25386 24745 21884 17664 7083 7819 5782 7861 4808 8139 6289 1159 8864 4577 4027 6404 13932 28683 16994 4890 8339 24231 6763 8124 24521 6028 5277 6383 10554 6604 5499 12193
Last daily increment 1 6 5 5 5 7 9 1 6 25 37 2 1 3 9 2 5 14 70 8 19 4 6 29 13 10 3 79 3 5 21 2 8 23 7 7 4 0 5 6 14 15 2 3 6 6 1 1 8 19 6 3 4 12 13 6 3 2 7 5 3 11 12 2 38 23 6 5 15 7 15 6 3 16 2 49 9 5 29 14 2 4 2 0 11 8 10 11 6 8 9 1 8 8 4 2 7 2 2 4 1 3 0 16 6 7 0 4 2 13 5 5 3 5 1 15 1 2 21 11 12 1 3 10 4 3 4 16 13 3 21 8 7 12 1 4 6 6 6 39 7 47 5 6 5 86 40 3 7 2 9 11 35 7 1 0 66 10 5 6 0 13 4 1 5 12 19 1 2 14 21 5 8 1 6 10 2 10 26 2 5 14 10 4 14 16 4 8 5 6 19 8 5 18 6 4 14 6 9 6 9 3 2 5 2 24 4 2 1 45 10 2 6 4 1 1 36 38 5 13 9 7 2 63 10 11 2 2 3 4 9 12 1 17 15 4 2 2 11 7 10 4 9 16 9 9 2 3 5 2 3 5 15 34 24 4 2 19 3 6 5 26 26 7 2 1 2 7 6 1 8 4 7 4 2 1 17 18 4 2 10 37 23 8 7 10 6 1 0 7 10 6 6 0 6 5 3 9 12 33 15 1 10 9 4 2 12 7 2 15 7 0 6 1
Last week 9 17 46 36 63 33 56 10 85 111 270 9 29 50 53 19 47 139 617 57 132 26 20 268 69 71 40 556 43 46 106 10 59 177 56 62 28 17 65 50 104 138 39 37 39 53 13 19 124 117 34 19 27 125 123 33 26 24 61 51 21 119 82 7 232 151 26 38 72 48 51 63 22 105 15 363 80 32 205 135 28 30 24 20 68 80 145 69 53 34 65 5 26 76 27 40 35 22 26 54 15 17 22 74 50 23 20 15 13 71 21 47 20 63 21 74 18 22 127 46 67 3 32 69 46 28 46 129 98 23 107 70 41 64 12 53 52 61 43 258 53 348 40 57 41 737 309 16 62 34 32 141 208 36 12 13 435 82 65 39 18 71 17 25 27 67 108 12 36 90 139 36 101 5 37 109 43 41 183 13 39 98 77 67 115 135 34 180 65 25 206 74 27 168 90 64 117 47 115 36 52 24 23 54 14 165 25 30 9 328 71 27 29 22 19 7 188 264 43 52 61 60 21 549 60 111 83 26 16 44 60 88 11 87 140 12 28 19 61 48 91 32 55 145 61 53 38 21 58 26 26 49 152 166 173 34 18 139 17 55 52 139 195 62 17 13 27 59 30 8 49 21 48 28 21 3 94 156 24 15 43 378 184 68 85 81 35 24 12 31 36 40 35 7 57 47 49 55 49 223 99 14 76 62 32 50 121 30 21 50 64 19 36 42
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 --12-2203-23 --10-1910-1110-2710-12 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1210-28 -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --11-02 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-2511-02 --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-29 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- --11-02 --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-29 --10-0709-2706-14 -- -- -- --09-28 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- --11-04 -- -- -- --11-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-25 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- --11-0310-26 --10-1310-13 --10-18 --10-12 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-0111-03 --09-30 -- --09-2910-30 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-06 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-17 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-05 -- -- -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 --11-03 --10-11 --10-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 62 29 77 72 423 95 164 99 55 235 135 55 71 321 57 70 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 68 293 144 20 165 29 55 31 32 55 75 41 129 71 25 71 31 56 65 48 43 52 59 152 86 540 75 530 611 61 73 391 51 108 58 68 610 256 82 102 95 43 41 42 196 64 43 67 237 232 86 183 435 112 65 24 70 76 118 182 125 31 127 177 46 90 48 138 134 58 91 320 136 38 31 65 130
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 10 9 54 28 19 61 34 27 21 81 19 33 55 9 32 16 55 18 31 14 106 71 9 53 7 18 15 8 17 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 23 18 13 11 14 21 19 23 154 15 58 136 19 34 54 14 20 16 7 70 58 19 40 25 13 12 21 62 22 19 14 49 91 18 26 119 34 22 11 28 24 30 46 48 9 58 33 15 31 7 27 34 21 19 77 21 9 11 18 16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-30 to 2021-04-05

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-03-29 2868 5013 8545 8156 9529 9730 11581 3821 23378 30104 18716 4222 17588 8120 7999 8170 13361 22207 100094 6946 17880 9158 5905 25603 4803 25138 6998 47961 10765 6686 28248 6864 14388 30474 5978 24230 6210 9074 7065 9828 17039 14248 5578 13951 7060 10047 8191 8303 15746 12294 12614 3723 8989 20642 21568 6077 4842 4205 7746 11269 3111 5624 14054 2533 37538 23409 2753 7883 30695 8439 7380 10267 4170 19924 2963 22725 11737 7833 26494 30713 2968 4163 4825 8147 6297 4708 17763 9531 8711 6597 5762 7283 29633 12396 5192 6968 4933 5206 5402 8051 3079 4751 13621 8067 6335 3827 10203 5467 22236 7303 11892 4167 12863 5048 20667 7898 7581 20518 4280 8763 6995 26759 6876 8163 4898 26140 6020 5631 24514 7743 7755 7491 6730 14866 8841 5912 7489 19205 12108 32964 17301 24052 9316 61024 35740 4886 21556 6525 6839 48359 20000 12648 3744 2762 52110 7987 26035 2624 3414 16076 2204 3241 6776 12310 19821 4362 6100 7171 23171 8358 35173 5895 8450 6306 5479 9025 2992 9962 12293 4271 6007 17838 17262 7353 30333 8375 4883 22663 9307 9580 15171 9129 14174 13642 10764 32563 9222 6201 9198 4549 10701 2590 20930 6390 6048 4867 20739 6450 5459 6811 7690 1624 1858 22912 33741 5460 5290 23763 4822 6829 42345 14902 15135 14492 5913 4751 5718 7250 15047 1620 5148 7344 4452 5460 4631 5784 8003 5373 8621 11252 14400 14645 22291 7348 7765 16973 8490 5268 5948 20624 15651 19672 5101 3727 21861 5439 15826 13331 11223 18081 5333 5518 2949 10842 9892 5285 2895 11373 6207 17793 7998 4181 28551 16271 5645 4839 5074 24761 25386 24745 21884 17664 7083 7819 5782 7861 4808 8139 6289 1159 8864 4577 4027 6404 13932 28683 16994 4890 8339 24231 6763 8124 24521 6028 5277 6383 10554 6604 5499 12193
2021-03-30 2870 5017 8554 8170 9554 9734 11590 3823 23390 30120 18820 4229 17600 8127 8041 8183 13380 22220 100300 6956 17910 9175 5911 25640 4817 25150 7003 48110 10770 6697 28280 6866 14410 30510 5978 24240 6224 9077 7086 9839 17070 14300 5584 13960 7076 10060 8197 8308 15770 12310 12620 3726 8994 20690 21630 6085 4850 4208 7762 11280 3113 5649 14070 2534 37610 23450 2756 7890 30710 8446 7424 10270 4174 19950 2968 22760 11760 7837 26530 30760 2972 4168 4830 8151 6310 4721 17830 9557 8722 6597 5765 7287 29650 12410 5193 6983 4936 5215 5430 8055 3081 4753 13640 8088 6336 3833 10210 5472 22250 7307 11900 4171 12870 5053 20680 7903 7588 20540 4285 8775 7000 26770 6884 8169 4899 26160 6031 5635 24560 7762 7768 7511 6735 14880 8848 5922 7506 19290 12120 33050 17320 24070 9328 61140 35810 4891 21570 6548 6846 48410 20040 12650 3745 2767 52190 7996 26050 2630 3422 16090 2207 3244 6779 12320 19840 4365 6107 7189 23190 8367 35190 5905 8458 6310 5486 9060 2995 9980 12310 4281 6026 17870 17280 7359 30360 8385 4887 22700 9309 9586 15220 9139 14190 13670 10770 32580 9244 6214 9212 4554 10710 2594 20980 6397 6055 4867 20800 6464 5465 6816 7693 1627 1860 22960 33780 5466 5299 23800 4831 6832 42410 14930 15150 14540 5917 4754 5725 7269 15070 1621 5171 7363 4454 5463 4635 5793 8006 5380 8637 11260 14440 14650 22300 7360 7769 17010 8496 5284 5957 20650 15680 19700 5126 3731 21910 5442 15840 13350 11240 18130 5339 5521 2951 10860 9901 5292 2896 11380 6211 17800 8001 4185 28570 16270 5651 4842 5081 24830 25410 24760 21910 17700 7090 7823 5788 7865 4814 8142 6298 1160 8880 4587 4033 6410 13950 28750 17030 4895 8350 24240 6769 8132 24560 6035 5290 6390 10570 6621 5506 12200
2021-03-31 2872 5025 8569 8184 9569 9742 11610 3828 23410 30130 18890 4234 17600 8136 8064 8190 13390 22240 100400 6971 17930 9188 5931 25690 4829 25170 7008 48240 10780 6716 28320 6870 14430 30550 5985 24260 6232 9083 7095 9851 17100 14330 5589 13970 7088 10070 8201 8321 15780 12340 12630 3730 9000 20720 21670 6091 4854 4211 7771 11300 3113 5669 14080 2536 37670 23470 2756 7900 30730 8456 7452 10270 4183 19980 2988 22800 11790 7842 26560 30800 2976 4181 4835 8161 6333 4734 17870 9582 8730 6600 5773 7295 29660 12420 5193 6996 4942 5223 5448 8059 3084 4757 13660 8106 6339 3837 10210 5476 22270 7319 11920 4179 12880 5068 20690 7915 7607 20560 4285 8791 7006 26780 6893 8178 4906 26210 6031 5640 24600 7782 7774 7522 6740 14890 8850 5933 7522 19370 12140 33130 17330 24090 9333 61270 35880 4895 21580 6559 6862 48450 20080 12660 3745 2771 52270 8007 26070 2638 3430 16100 2210 3247 6782 12330 19870 4370 6112 7209 23230 8394 35220 5911 8471 6316 5496 9099 2997 9990 12330 4281 6048 17900 17300 7368 30410 8401 4892 22730 9322 9601 15280 9154 14210 13690 10790 32610 9255 6248 9222 4567 10720 2600 21020 6404 6072 4870 20860 6478 5477 6833 7699 1628 1866 23010 33830 5468 5308 23820 4838 6837 42460 14940 15170 14580 5920 4759 5732 7287 15090 1621 5190 7370 4457 5464 4639 5795 8014 5397 8645 11290 14470 14660 22310 7369 7776 17040 8505 5295 5967 20700 15700 19740 5143 3739 21950 5445 15850 13350 11260 18180 5346 5526 2954 10870 9905 5297 2901 11390 6215 17820 8004 4191 28580 16280 5655 4849 5088 24910 25440 24780 21930 17730 7103 7828 5792 7865 4823 8149 6308 1160 8894 4606 4034 6421 13960 28800 17050 4906 8358 24240 6777 8144 24590 6046 5299 6396 10580 6631 5528 12230
2021-04-01 2874 5031 8578 8194 9584 9747 11620 3832 23420 30140 18940 4236 17610 8145 8079 8195 13400 22260 100500 6984 17960 9194 5944 25730 4842 25190 7013 48350 10780 6732 28340 6871 14450 30590 5990 24280 6238 9087 7110 9862 17120 14360 5595 13980 7095 10080 8206 8330 15800 12360 12640 3733 9006 20750 21690 6099 4860 4214 7780 11310 3115 5687 14090 2537 37710 23500 2757 7909 30750 8464 7471 10280 4190 20000 3001 22860 11800 7846 26580 30830 2979 4191 4840 8168 6352 4746 17900 9593 8742 6602 5783 7301 29680 12420 5193 7006 4946 5230 5462 8063 3086 4760 13670 8116 6340 3841 10220 5480 22280 7327 11930 4185 12900 5079 20690 7923 7621 20580 4285 8805 7011 26800 6901 8185 4912 26250 6034 5645 24620 7800 7784 7533 6743 14900 8854 5943 7534 19420 12150 33190 17340 24100 9343 61390 35940 4898 21590 6567 6874 48480 20110 12670 3746 2774 52340 8022 26080 2645 3432 16110 2212 3250 6787 12340 19900 4374 6119 7222 23250 8412 35250 5918 8481 6323 5505 9135 3001 10010 12350 4285 6066 17920 17320 7375 30450 8413 4896 22770 9335 9612 15310 9164 14230 13720 10800 32630 9263 6272 9228 4577 10730 2605 21060 6408 6084 4871 20900 6491 5486 6844 7704 1629 1870 23040 33870 5472 5317 23840 4846 6841 42520 14950 15190 14600 5927 4763 5740 7299 15100 1622 5204 7382 4459 5467 4643 5800 8020 5410 8656 11310 14510 14670 22320 7377 7781 17060 8512 5304 5977 20740 15730 19770 5155 3744 21980 5448 15860 13360 11280 18210 5358 5530 2957 10880 9911 5302 2904 11400 6218 17830 8005 4197 28600 16300 5660 4854 5095 24980 25470 24790 21940 17760 7113 7832 5794 7865 4831 8156 6313 1160 8905 4621 4037 6432 13970 28850 17070 4913 8367 24250 6785 8154 24600 6054 5307 6403 10590 6637 5543 12240
2021-04-02 2876 5036 8584 8199 9592 9752 11620 3835 23430 30160 18990 4237 17610 8152 8093 8197 13410 22280 100600 6995 17980 9197 5954 25770 4850 25200 7018 48430 10790 6745 28360 6872 14450 30610 5994 24290 6243 9091 7117 9869 17140 14380 5600 13990 7101 10090 8208 8337 15820 12380 12650 3736 9011 20770 21710 6103 4868 4218 7785 11320 3116 5707 14100 2538 37750 23530 2759 7916 30760 8472 7492 10280 4195 20020 3010 22910 11810 7850 26610 30850 2983 4198 4844 8173 6367 4758 17930 9606 8753 6607 5789 7305 29690 12430 5193 7012 4950 5234 5476 8066 3088 4762 13680 8127 6342 3845 10220 5482 22300 7333 11940 4189 12900 5087 20700 7929 7631 20600 4285 8817 7017 26810 6909 8188 4921 26280 6042 5648 24650 7808 7789 7540 6746 14910 8859 5953 7543 19460 12160 33240 17350 24120 9347 61520 35990 4902 21610 6573 6883 48510 20150 12670 3747 2775 52410 8031 26090 2652 3434 16130 2215 3253 6787 12350 19920 4377 6124 7239 23280 8426 35270 5922 8490 6331 5512 9169 3003 10010 12370 4292 6076 17940 17340 7382 30480 8422 4900 22800 9342 9620 15340 9175 14240 13730 10810 32650 9273 6291 9231 4584 10740 2609 21090 6413 6094 4871 20950 6505 5493 6852 7708 1631 1873 23070 33910 5477 5323 23850 4854 6845 42580 14960 15210 14620 5930 4767 5746 7309 15110 1622 5218 7397 4462 5469 4647 5806 8025 5425 8664 11320 14530 14680 22330 7385 7786 17080 8519 5309 5986 20780 15750 19790 5161 3748 22000 5451 15870 13370 11300 18240 5365 5534 2959 10890 9918 5307 2907 11410 6222 17850 8007 4201 28610 16320 5660 4858 5102 25040 25500 24810 21960 17770 7121 7836 5797 7866 4837 8164 6318 1161 8915 4634 4042 6438 13980 28880 17080 4920 8376 24260 6791 8163 24620 6062 5311 6410 10610 6641 5554 12250
2021-04-03 2878 5040 8588 8205 9602 9757 11630 3837 23450 30170 19030 4238 17620 8160 8103 8199 13420 22290 100700 7005 18000 9202 5963 25790 4856 25220 7023 48510 10790 6758 28370 6872 14460 30630 5999 24300 6246 9095 7123 9876 17150 14400 5606 14000 7105 10090 8208 8343 15840 12390 12650 3739 9016 20790 21740 6110 4869 4221 7800 11330 3118 5722 14110 2539 37790 23540 2761 7924 30780 8479 7515 10290 4200 20030 3019 22950 11820 7855 26620 30870 2987 4205 4845 8178 6382 4770 17950 9615 8763 6611 5795 7310 29700 12430 5193 7017 4953 5239 5486 8069 3091 4763 13690 8133 6343 3848 10230 5484 22310 7339 11950 4194 12910 5095 20710 7935 7641 20610 4286 8829 7022 26820 6917 8191 4925 26310 6049 5649 24670 7814 7793 7547 6749 14920 8864 5962 7546 19500 12170 33290 17350 24130 9357 61590 36030 4904 21620 6577 6891 48530 20180 12670 3748 2779 52450 8042 26100 2659 3438 16140 2218 3256 6789 12370 19940 4380 6129 7248 23300 8439 35280 5926 8499 6332 5520 9203 3003 10010 12390 4299 6089 17960 17350 7388 30510 8430 4904 22830 9346 9628 15360 9179 14250 13750 10820 32670 9280 6308 9236 4591 10750 2613 21110 6416 6104 4873 20990 6518 5500 6859 7711 1633 1876 23100 33930 5482 5325 23870 4863 6848 42610 14970 15220 14630 5933 4770 5753 7317 15130 1623 5229 7413 4464 5472 4651 5813 8029 5433 8670 11340 14560 14690 22340 7392 7790 17100 8525 5313 5995 20810 15770 19820 5169 3752 22030 5454 15880 13370 11320 18260 5373 5537 2962 10890 9926 5310 2909 11420 6226 17860 8010 4205 28620 16340 5663 4862 5108 25080 25520 24820 21970 17780 7129 7840 5798 7868 4844 8168 6320 1161 8924 4646 4047 6444 13990 28900 17100 4926 8386 24260 6797 8172 24630 6069 5315 6417 10620 6645 5564 12270
2021-04-04 2880 5045 8593 8208 9613 9762 11640 3840 23460 30190 19070 4241 17630 8167 8110 8203 13420 22310 100800 7015 18020 9208 5970 25840 4863 25230 7028 48590 10800 6770 28380 6872 14470 30650 6008 24310 6250 9098 7134 9883 17170 14420 5611 14010 7110 10100 8211 8349 15860 12410 12660 3742 9020 20810 21760 6114 4873 4224 7813 11340 3120 5738 14130 2540 37840 23570 2764 7931 30790 8486 7532 10290 4204 20050 3025 23020 11830 7859 26660 30900 2991 4210 4850 8182 6396 4782 17980 9626 8767 6616 5812 7314 29720 12430 5193 7023 4957 5241 5496 8070 3093 4765 13700 8145 6348 3853 10230 5485 22330 7344 11960 4197 12920 5101 20720 7940 7649 20630 4290 8840 7027 26830 6925 8193 4932 26330 6059 5654 24700 7824 7803 7564 6752 14930 8870 5971 7554 19540 12180 33330 17360 24140 9361 61700 36060 4908 21630 6584 6899 48550 20220 12680 3749 2783 52510 8061 26110 2665 3441 16150 2221 3259 6795 12380 19960 4382 6136 7259 23330 8449 35300 5933 8507 6341 5527 9236 3005 10020 12400 4307 6097 17970 17380 7394 30540 8440 4908 22870 9354 9635 15390 9187 14260 13770 10830 32690 9288 6323 9240 4596 10760 2616 21130 6417 6112 4875 21030 6531 5506 6865 7715 1636 1878 23130 33970 5487 5334 23880 4871 6851 42670 14980 15240 14640 5937 4773 5759 7328 15140 1624 5243 7430 4466 5475 4654 5820 8032 5445 8675 11350 14580 14700 22350 7400 7794 17120 8530 5320 6004 20840 15810 19850 5176 3756 22050 5457 15890 13380 11340 18300 5387 5540 2964 10900 9934 5317 2911 11430 6230 17870 8018 4209 28640 16360 5667 4865 5115 25130 25550 24830 21980 17800 7136 7843 5799 7870 4850 8175 6326 1162 8933 4657 4052 6451 14000 28950 17120 4931 8396 24260 6802 8180 24660 6076 5318 6424 10630 6650 5573 12280
2021-04-05 2881 5049 8599 8216 9621 9768 11640 3842 23470 30200 19120 4244 17630 8174 8123 8206 13430 22330 100900 7025 18040 9213 5976 25880 4878 25240 7034 48680 10810 6781 28400 6873 14480 30680 6015 24320 6255 9102 7140 9890 17190 14440 5617 14020 7118 10110 8212 8354 15880 12430 12670 3745 9025 20830 21780 6120 4878 4227 7821 11350 3123 5751 14140 2541 37880 23600 2767 7938 30800 8493 7543 10300 4208 20070 3031 23070 11840 7863 26690 30920 2995 4216 4853 8186 6409 4794 18000 9639 8776 6622 5820 7319 29730 12440 5193 7030 4960 5245 5505 8071 3096 4766 13720 8152 6354 3854 10240 5487 22340 7348 11970 4201 12920 5107 20730 7945 7656 20650 4294 8851 7032 26840 6932 8196 4936 26360 6069 5658 24720 7835 7810 7579 6755 14940 8876 5981 7562 19590 12190 33380 17360 24160 9367 61800 36100 4911 21640 6589 6906 48570 20250 12690 3750 2784 52580 8072 26130 2671 3443 16160 2224 3262 6800 12390 19970 4385 6139 7273 23350 8459 35320 5938 8515 6345 5534 9269 3006 10030 12420 4317 6102 17990 17400 7400 30570 8446 4913 22900 9363 9641 15410 9194 14270 13790 10830 32710 9298 6336 9245 4601 10760 2620 21160 6422 6119 4876 21080 6544 5513 6871 7718 1638 1880 23170 34010 5492 5345 23890 4880 6854 42740 15000 15250 14650 5941 4776 5766 7337 15160 1625 5261 7447 4468 5478 4657 5828 8036 5455 8680 11360 14600 14710 22360 7407 7798 17130 8535 5324 6013 20870 15840 19870 5183 3759 22070 5459 15900 13390 11360 18330 5394 5543 2965 10900 9943 5322 2912 11440 6234 17880 8022 4213 28650 16380 5671 4868 5121 25180 25570 24840 21990 17810 7143 7847 5801 7873 4856 8180 6333 1163 8940 4668 4057 6460 14010 28990 17140 4937 8407 24270 6808 8188 24680 6082 5321 6430 10640 6653 5580 12290

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-30 to 2021-04-05

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-03-29 2868 5013 8545 8156 9529 9730 11581 3821 23378 30104 18716 4222 17588 8120 7999 8170 13361 22207 100094 6946 17880 9158 5905 25603 4803 25138 6998 47961 10765 6686 28248 6864 14388 30474 5978 24230 6210 9074 7065 9828 17039 14248 5578 13951 7060 10047 8191 8303 15746 12294 12614 3723 8989 20642 21568 6077 4842 4205 7746 11269 3111 5624 14054 2533 37538 23409 2753 7883 30695 8439 7380 10267 4170 19924 2963 22725 11737 7833 26494 30713 2968 4163 4825 8147 6297 4708 17763 9531 8711 6597 5762 7283 29633 12396 5192 6968 4933 5206 5402 8051 3079 4751 13621 8067 6335 3827 10203 5467 22236 7303 11892 4167 12863 5048 20667 7898 7581 20518 4280 8763 6995 26759 6876 8163 4898 26140 6020 5631 24514 7743 7755 7491 6730 14866 8841 5912 7489 19205 12108 32964 17301 24052 9316 61024 35740 4886 21556 6525 6839 48359 20000 12648 3744 2762 52110 7987 26035 2624 3414 16076 2204 3241 6776 12310 19821 4362 6100 7171 23171 8358 35173 5895 8450 6306 5479 9025 2992 9962 12293 4271 6007 17838 17262 7353 30333 8375 4883 22663 9307 9580 15171 9129 14174 13642 10764 32563 9222 6201 9198 4549 10701 2590 20930 6390 6048 4867 20739 6450 5459 6811 7690 1624 1858 22912 33741 5460 5290 23763 4822 6829 42345 14902 15135 14492 5913 4751 5718 7250 15047 1620 5148 7344 4452 5460 4631 5784 8003 5373 8621 11252 14400 14645 22291 7348 7765 16973 8490 5268 5948 20624 15651 19672 5101 3727 21861 5439 15826 13331 11223 18081 5333 5518 2949 10842 9892 5285 2895 11373 6207 17793 7998 4181 28551 16271 5645 4839 5074 24761 25386 24745 21884 17664 7083 7819 5782 7861 4808 8139 6289 1159 8864 4577 4027 6404 13932 28683 16994 4890 8339 24231 6763 8124 24521 6028 5277 6383 10554 6604 5499 12193
2021-03-30 2869 5018 8550 8160 9543 9735 11590 3823 23390 30120 18780 4224 17590 8126 8013 8176 13370 22220 100200 6955 17900 9164 5911 25640 4816 25150 7004 48070 10770 6693 28270 6866 14400 30500 5986 24240 6217 9077 7082 9834 17060 14270 5583 13960 7068 10060 8194 8306 15760 12310 12620 3727 8993 20660 21600 6083 4845 4208 7757 11280 3113 5644 14070 2534 37580 23440 2757 7890 30710 8446 7392 10270 4174 19940 2968 22780 11750 7838 26530 30740 2972 4168 4828 8150 6310 4717 17790 9544 8717 6601 5771 7289 29650 12400 5195 6977 4936 5210 5410 8053 3081 4754 13630 8077 6339 3830 10210 5470 22250 7307 11900 4170 12870 5053 20680 7902 7586 20530 4287 8774 6999 26770 6880 8167 4904 26170 6031 5634 24540 7755 7765 7504 6733 14880 8849 5921 7494 19250 12120 33030 17310 24060 9324 61140 35790 4889 21570 6535 6846 48380 20040 12650 3745 2764 52180 7999 26050 2630 3418 16090 2207 3244 6781 12320 19840 4364 6106 7187 23200 8364 35190 5905 8466 6311 5487 9059 2996 9970 12310 4281 6016 17860 17280 7358 30360 8384 4888 22700 9314 9585 15190 9141 14180 13660 10770 32580 9230 6214 9205 4553 10710 2593 20960 6395 6055 4868 20810 6464 5463 6817 7694 1627 1860 22950 33780 5464 5300 23780 4830 6832 42440 14920 15150 14510 5916 4754 5723 7260 15060 1621 5161 7366 4455 5463 4635 5789 8013 5383 8627 11270 14420 14660 22300 7354 7769 16990 8495 5272 5957 20650 15680 19700 5108 3732 21890 5442 15840 13350 11240 18110 5340 5521 2950 10850 9900 5291 2896 11380 6211 17800 8004 4184 28560 16290 5649 4841 5080 24820 25410 24760 21900 17680 7090 7822 5784 7866 4816 8143 6294 1160 8873 4587 4031 6413 13940 28710 17010 4895 8349 24240 6767 8130 24540 6036 5281 6391 10560 6609 5506 12200
2021-03-31 2871 5023 8561 8168 9553 9742 11600 3826 23410 30140 18840 4226 17600 8134 8030 8181 13380 22230 100300 6967 17920 9172 5921 25690 4828 25160 7010 48190 10780 6709 28290 6869 14410 30540 5994 24260 6223 9081 7095 9845 17090 14310 5589 13970 7078 10070 8197 8314 15780 12330 12620 3731 8995 20690 21630 6089 4852 4212 7764 11290 3114 5664 14080 2535 37620 23460 2759 7898 30720 8454 7405 10280 4179 19960 2976 22820 11770 7842 26570 30760 2976 4175 4831 8156 6325 4730 17820 9562 8724 6606 5779 7295 29660 12410 5198 6985 4940 5215 5421 8056 3085 4760 13650 8089 6341 3833 10210 5471 22270 7312 11910 4175 12880 5062 20690 7908 7595 20550 4291 8785 7004 26780 6890 8173 4911 26200 6038 5637 24560 7772 7770 7514 6736 14890 8854 5929 7505 19300 12130 33100 17320 24080 9327 61280 35860 4893 21580 6544 6854 48410 20070 12660 3746 2766 52260 8011 26060 2637 3422 16100 2210 3248 6784 12330 19860 4367 6111 7205 23220 8376 35210 5909 8487 6318 5495 9098 2999 9980 12330 4291 6030 17890 17300 7365 30400 8397 4892 22730 9328 9591 15240 9160 14200 13680 10780 32600 9238 6233 9211 4560 10720 2596 20990 6401 6065 4870 20880 6479 5472 6824 7698 1629 1863 22980 33820 5469 5311 23790 4839 6835 42550 14930 15160 14530 5920 4758 5731 7273 15080 1622 5177 7390 4457 5464 4639 5798 8025 5398 8631 11280 14450 14670 22310 7360 7775 17000 8502 5278 5968 20680 15700 19720 5119 3736 21920 5445 15850 13360 11260 18150 5348 5524 2952 10860 9909 5297 2898 11390 6216 17810 8008 4187 28570 16290 5655 4846 5086 24890 25440 24770 21920 17700 7096 7825 5788 7868 4822 8150 6303 1161 8881 4602 4036 6423 13960 28750 17030 4899 8360 24250 6772 8144 24560 6042 5286 6395 10580 6616 5519 12210
2021-04-01 2873 5027 8567 8175 9565 9747 11610 3828 23420 30150 18900 4227 17600 8140 8043 8185 13390 22250 100400 6978 17950 9179 5928 25740 4840 25170 7015 48290 10780 6721 28320 6870 14420 30580 6000 24270 6227 9085 7110 9855 17110 14340 5594 13970 7086 10080 8200 8319 15800 12340 12630 3734 8998 20720 21660 6095 4858 4215 7770 11300 3116 5683 14090 2536 37660 23490 2762 7904 30730 8460 7415 10290 4184 19980 2984 22870 11780 7846 26600 30790 2981 4181 4836 8161 6339 4744 17840 9573 8733 6610 5788 7300 29680 12420 5201 6993 4943 5220 5433 8060 3087 4766 13660 8097 6342 3837 10210 5473 22280 7316 11910 4178 12890 5068 20690 7914 7603 20560 4295 8798 7008 26790 6897 8178 4917 26230 6047 5640 24590 7788 7779 7523 6739 14900 8858 5938 7513 19340 12140 33160 17330 24100 9332 61410 35910 4896 21590 6551 6861 48440 20100 12660 3747 2768 52330 8025 26080 2643 3424 16110 2213 3251 6787 12330 19880 4369 6117 7217 23240 8385 35230 5913 8506 6324 5502 9134 3002 9990 12340 4301 6042 17910 17330 7372 30430 8407 4897 22770 9340 9597 15260 9175 14210 13700 10790 32630 9246 6249 9215 4566 10720 2599 21030 6405 6073 4872 20930 6494 5479 6830 7701 1632 1865 23010 33840 5474 5320 23800 4848 6838 42650 14940 15180 14550 5924 4761 5737 7282 15090 1623 5192 7409 4459 5467 4642 5804 8034 5412 8638 11290 14480 14670 22320 7366 7779 17010 8508 5283 5978 20710 15730 19740 5128 3739 21940 5448 15860 13360 11290 18180 5358 5527 2953 10860 9920 5302 2900 11400 6220 17830 8011 4191 28580 16310 5660 4850 5091 24960 25470 24790 21930 17720 7102 7828 5790 7869 4827 8156 6307 1161 8887 4614 4041 6433 13960 28770 17040 4903 8371 24270 6777 8153 24570 6049 5290 6401 10590 6622 5527 12220
2021-04-02 2874 5031 8572 8178 9572 9752 11620 3830 23440 30160 18950 4228 17600 8147 8056 8187 13400 22260 100500 6988 17970 9183 5933 25780 4849 25180 7020 48380 10790 6733 28340 6872 14430 30600 6006 24280 6230 9089 7122 9863 17130 14360 5600 13980 7093 10090 8202 8325 15820 12350 12630 3737 9000 20740 21690 6099 4865 4218 7776 11310 3118 5703 14110 2537 37700 23520 2764 7911 30750 8466 7426 10290 4188 19990 2990 22920 11800 7850 26630 30810 2985 4187 4839 8165 6351 4758 17860 9585 8742 6614 5795 7304 29690 12420 5205 6999 4947 5224 5445 8062 3089 4770 13670 8104 6344 3840 10210 5475 22290 7320 11920 4181 12900 5074 20700 7919 7609 20570 4298 8809 7012 26800 6904 8182 4925 26250 6057 5642 24610 7799 7785 7530 6742 14910 8866 5946 7521 19380 12150 33210 17340 24110 9334 61540 35960 4900 21600 6557 6867 48460 20130 12670 3748 2769 52400 8036 26090 2649 3425 16130 2215 3255 6789 12340 19900 4372 6122 7231 23260 8392 35250 5916 8524 6331 5509 9169 3004 9990 12360 4311 6051 17930 17350 7379 30460 8415 4901 22800 9348 9601 15280 9191 14220 13710 10800 32650 9254 6263 9218 4571 10730 2602 21050 6411 6081 4873 20980 6508 5485 6835 7705 1634 1867 23040 33860 5478 5328 23820 4857 6841 42740 14950 15190 14570 5928 4763 5743 7290 15100 1624 5206 7426 4461 5471 4645 5813 8044 5426 8644 11310 14500 14680 22330 7371 7784 17020 8514 5287 5988 20740 15750 19750 5134 3743 21960 5451 15860 13370 11310 18210 5365 5530 2955 10870 9929 5308 2901 11400 6224 17830 8015 4193 28590 16320 5662 4853 5095 25010 25500 24800 21950 17740 7106 7831 5793 7871 4832 8162 6312 1162 8892 4626 4046 6439 13980 28780 17060 4906 8382 24280 6783 8162 24590 6054 5292 6407 10600 6627 5535 12220
2021-04-03 2876 5035 8575 8184 9578 9758 11620 3832 23450 30170 19000 4229 17610 8153 8069 8190 13410 22270 100600 6997 17990 9189 5940 25810 4857 25190 7026 48480 10790 6742 28350 6874 14430 30620 6011 24290 6233 9092 7131 9870 17150 14380 5605 13990 7099 10100 8203 8330 15840 12360 12630 3740 9002 20750 21710 6105 4868 4221 7784 11320 3121 5720 14120 2538 37740 23540 2767 7917 30760 8472 7439 10300 4191 20010 2994 22960 11810 7854 26660 30830 2990 4191 4840 8168 6364 4767 17880 9596 8749 6618 5801 7309 29700 12430 5207 7003 4950 5229 5456 8064 3090 4774 13680 8111 6346 3843 10220 5476 22300 7322 11930 4185 12910 5080 20710 7924 7616 20570 4302 8820 7016 26810 6913 8186 4929 26270 6067 5644 24620 7809 7790 7536 6745 14920 8871 5954 7525 19420 12160 33260 17340 24120 9338 61620 36000 4903 21610 6564 6873 48480 20160 12670 3749 2771 52460 8048 26100 2655 3428 16140 2218 3258 6792 12360 19910 4374 6127 7239 23280 8401 35260 5919 8540 6336 5516 9203 3005 10000 12370 4321 6062 17950 17370 7385 30490 8421 4905 22830 9353 9606 15300 9202 14230 13730 10810 32670 9261 6276 9223 4576 10740 2605 21070 6415 6088 4876 21010 6522 5491 6840 7707 1637 1869 23060 33870 5482 5333 23830 4867 6844 42820 14960 15200 14590 5930 4766 5749 7299 15120 1625 5219 7441 4463 5473 4648 5817 8052 5436 8649 11320 14530 14690 22330 7377 7788 17040 8519 5291 5998 20770 15770 19770 5142 3746 21990 5453 15870 13380 11330 18240 5373 5533 2956 10870 9937 5312 2903 11410 6228 17840 8019 4195 28600 16320 5666 4856 5099 25050 25520 24810 21960 17750 7111 7834 5795 7873 4837 8166 6314 1163 8896 4638 4050 6442 13980 28800 17070 4910 8391 24280 6786 8168 24590 6062 5296 6413 10610 6633 5543 12230
2021-04-04 2878 5039 8579 8190 9590 9763 11630 3834 23460 30180 19050 4230 17610 8159 8083 8194 13410 22280 100700 7007 18010 9196 5946 25850 4866 25200 7031 48570 10800 6752 28370 6875 14440 30650 6017 24300 6236 9096 7143 9879 17170 14410 5611 13990 7107 10100 8205 8335 15860 12370 12640 3744 9005 20780 21740 6110 4874 4223 7792 11330 3123 5736 14130 2539 37790 23560 2770 7926 30770 8478 7453 10310 4194 20030 2999 23010 11820 7859 26690 30860 2994 4195 4844 8171 6376 4781 17900 9609 8755 6623 5813 7313 29720 12430 5210 7010 4953 5233 5468 8067 3093 4778 13690 8119 6349 3847 10220 5478 22310 7326 11930 4188 12920 5085 20720 7928 7626 20580 4306 8831 7020 26820 6925 8189 4935 26300 6075 5647 24650 7822 7799 7549 6748 14930 8876 5963 7534 19460 12170 33310 17350 24130 9341 61710 36040 4906 21620 6571 6881 48510 20190 12680 3750 2774 52520 8063 26110 2662 3431 16150 2220 3262 6796 12370 19930 4376 6133 7247 23310 8410 35280 5924 8557 6343 5523 9237 3006 10000 12390 4332 6071 17970 17390 7391 30520 8430 4910 22870 9359 9611 15320 9214 14240 13750 10820 32690 9270 6288 9227 4580 10740 2608 21100 6418 6095 4878 21050 6535 5497 6844 7710 1640 1872 23100 33890 5485 5340 23840 4876 6846 42910 14970 15210 14610 5933 4769 5757 7307 15130 1626 5234 7456 4466 5478 4652 5823 8059 5447 8654 11330 14550 14700 22340 7382 7792 17050 8525 5299 6008 20800 15800 19780 5153 3749 22020 5456 15880 13390 11350 18280 5384 5535 2957 10880 9945 5318 2905 11420 6232 17850 8024 4199 28610 16330 5671 4859 5103 25080 25550 24820 21980 17770 7114 7837 5797 7875 4843 8172 6319 1164 8902 4649 4055 6449 13990 28820 17090 4913 8401 24290 6791 8176 24610 6069 5300 6420 10620 6639 5551 12240
2021-04-05 2879 5043 8584 8199 9604 9769 11640 3836 23480 30190 19110 4233 17610 8165 8100 8200 13420 22290 100800 7016 18030 9203 5953 25890 4879 25210 7037 48680 10800 6772 28400 6876 14450 30680 6023 24310 6240 9099 7154 9888 17190 14440 5617 14000 7116 10110 8207 8341 15870 12390 12640 3747 9008 20800 21770 6116 4881 4226 7799 11340 3125 5755 14140 2540 37840 23590 2773 7933 30780 8484 7465 10310 4197 20040 3004 23060 11840 7863 26720 30890 2999 4199 4848 8175 6388 4794 17920 9626 8764 6628 5819 7318 29730 12440 5212 7016 4956 5237 5486 8068 3096 4784 13710 8126 6351 3850 10220 5479 22330 7329 11940 4191 12930 5090 20720 7933 7637 20590 4310 8843 7023 26830 6931 8193 4940 26320 6084 5650 24660 7838 7806 7566 6750 14940 8881 5971 7545 19510 12180 33390 17360 24140 9344 61840 36090 4909 21630 6581 6886 48530 20210 12690 3752 2777 52600 8076 26120 2668 3435 16160 2223 3265 6799 12380 19950 4378 6138 7261 23330 8422 35290 5927 8573 6348 5529 9271 3007 10010 12400 4344 6078 17990 17410 7397 30550 8435 4914 22900 9368 9615 15340 9229 14250 13770 10830 32710 9281 6301 9234 4585 10750 2610 21140 6424 6102 4879 21110 6549 5503 6848 7714 1642 1874 23130 33910 5489 5350 23860 4886 6849 43010 14980 15230 14630 5937 4771 5762 7318 15140 1628 5255 7476 4468 5480 4655 5835 8068 5459 8659 11340 14580 14710 22350 7387 7796 17060 8530 5305 6017 20830 15830 19800 5164 3751 22040 5458 15890 13400 11370 18310 5391 5538 2958 10890 9955 5323 2906 11420 6235 17860 8029 4202 28620 16340 5677 4862 5108 25140 25570 24830 21990 17790 7118 7839 5800 7876 4848 8177 6330 1165 8907 4660 4061 6456 14000 28850 17110 4916 8413 24300 6794 8185 24620 6076 5303 6425 10630 6647 5560 12240

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.