COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-04-04 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-04-04

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-04-04

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-3012-2712-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3012-2712-2212-2912-2712-2712-292021-01-072021-01-0111-1512-2812-2210-2912-2212-2712-2712-1312-2712-2812-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2711-0312-2112-2612-2512-0812-2712-2112-212021-01-0412-2212-2912-2612-2212-212021-01-0212-2112-2112-3112-2612-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-3012-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-212021-01-022021-02-2510-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-2412-2912-2412-2111-0212-2610-3112-2712-2912-2812-2112-2512-2212-2512-1412-232021-01-0612-2112-2312-2712-1812-282021-01-0412-2712-2612-2112-2712-2212-2112-2712-2112-2712-2212-2112-2112-2112-2212-2712-2712-2212-2212-1312-2712-1412-2912-2112-2912-2712-2812-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2212-2812-2812-2510-2812-2110-2712-2712-2912-3012-2712-2812-2712-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2212-212021-01-0412-302021-01-0312-2211-0412-2912-2112-2112-2112-2212-2512-2212-2612-2812-292021-01-0311-0412-2812-0812-2710-2512-2612-2111-0412-2112-3011-0312-212021-01-0412-2712-2112-3012-2912-2112-2712-2812-2712-2712-312021-01-0612-292021-01-0212-2912-212021-01-062021-01-0512-2212-2812-2112-2712-2812-1312-3112-1310-1712-3012-2712-2712-252021-01-2612-2812-2912-292021-01-0312-2112-3112-2912-2412-2712-3012-2512-2712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0912-2412-2112-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-212021-01-0312-2510-3112-2212-2812-2111-0112-2112-2312-2612-2712-2112-0712-2512-2812-3012-2312-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2312-2112-2112-1212-2312-3012-2112-2212-2812-2212-2612-2110-2812-2812-2712-1812-2512-2112-2112-2212-2112-2712-2512-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2712-2712-2912-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-3012-2112-3012-2612-28
Peak daily increment 61 88 97 180 109 172 178 78 476 588 191 59 326 131 108 108 232 430 1252 74 158 66 58 158 49 485 141 441 228 107 525 155 310 317 108 505 93 188 62 123 123 141 98 255 87 149 171 173 301 90 265 52 200 250 283 60 90 71 66 244 53 95 284 35 367 289 38 184 598 151 69 189 72 246 26 249 187 118 323 539 60 53 76 160 110 52 225 102 165 147 108 54 143 590 271 94 74 54 89 73 125 53 38 122 80 92 56 180 90 449 120 220 59 199 57 398 175 103 340 101 109 135 120 477 101 155 47 444 57 115 450 139 84 134 236 276 149 71 99 297 197 360 312 429 107 380 287 104 444 72 113 730 272 200 90 37 377 90 420 29 46 297 49 62 148 119 362 79 105 63 123 85 722 23 50 159 105 50 108 58 124 121 41 55 275 158 122 225 90 44 126 127 109 154 118 201 104 174 621 83 81 173 52 187 40 133 139 56 96 199 80 85 60 175 36 26 163 451 42 82 405 65 130 244 210 244 167 98 107 101 69 180 27 42 85 82 96 79 110 80 67 102 114 245 294 456 131 152 220 93 57 112 177 132 194 66 42 201 105 320 189 181 125 55 109 46 140 328 91 44 138 123 369 138 49 11 558 153 92 107 85 258 324 451 387 229 77 139 117 160 65 154 87 30 83 42 67 115 216 219 263 83 149 432 106 139 375 106 115 96 173 71 69 186
Days since peak 98 95 98 104 98 117 104 102 99 102 173 98 102 97 83 95 98 103 96 98 98 96 87 93 140 97 103 157 103 98 98 112 98 97 100 104 99 103 95 95 98 152 104 99 100 117 98 104 104 90 103 96 99 103 104 92 104 104 94 99 98 97 96 103 103 95 97 98 98 104 100 104 104 92 38 172 98 118 99 98 101 96 101 104 153 99 155 98 96 97 104 100 103 100 111 102 88 104 102 98 107 97 90 98 99 104 98 103 104 98 104 98 103 104 104 104 103 98 98 103 103 112 98 111 96 104 96 98 97 101 100 104 93 97 98 103 97 97 100 158 104 159 98 96 95 98 97 98 98 98 126 98 98 103 104 90 95 91 103 151 96 104 104 104 103 100 103 99 97 96 91 151 97 117 98 161 99 104 151 104 95 152 104 90 98 104 95 96 104 98 97 98 98 94 88 96 92 96 104 88 89 103 97 104 98 97 112 94 112 169 95 98 98 100 68 97 96 96 91 104 94 96 101 98 95 100 98 104 103 104 97 99 100 90 103 146 101 104 105 91 97 98 103 104 111 97 99 104 91 100 155 103 97 104 154 104 102 99 98 104 118 100 97 95 102 95 90 98 104 102 104 104 113 102 95 104 103 97 103 99 104 158 97 98 107 100 104 104 103 104 98 100 105 112 97 118 103 98 98 96 96 103 103 97 98 103 98 93 97 95 104 95 99 97
Last total 2877 5029 8565 8182 9567 9750 11608 3833 23441 30186 18942 4242 17608 8153 8041 8186 13391 22282 100460 6983 17957 9178 5934 25748 4837 25195 7021 48297 10776 6713 28305 6873 14423 30552 6005 24271 6225 9086 7100 9863 17113 14335 5596 13987 7072 10083 8203 8315 15807 12363 12635 3731 9005 20721 21624 6096 4861 4227 7804 11292 3119 5703 14113 2541 37686 23524 2770 7900 30737 8480 7437 10298 4200 19976 2970 22947 11770 7833 26595 30814 2993 4172 4835 8159 6338 4749 17863 9560 8747 6617 5794 2977 7300 29689 12408 5204 6992 4945 5220 5442 8053 3084 4762 13677 8118 6343 3838 10216 5478 22289 7311 11917 4182 12891 5063 20711 7911 7598 20588 4294 8809 6191 7011 26801 6899 8177 4923 26249 6073 5641 24579 7780 7781 7541 6750 14905 8884 5953 7521 19385 12153 33217 17338 24091 9344 61552 36014 4897 21580 6560 6852 48451 20161 12662 3751 2767 52390 8080 26072 2645 3423 16108 2212 3257 6784 12357 19889 4373 6124 7215 23288 8384 35259 1958 5935 8529 6326 5497 9126 2997 9990 12361 4303 6030 17932 17325 7367 30414 8413 4912 22786 9359 9600 15279 9165 14201 13714 10794 32649 9251 6233 9217 4572 10743 2598 21051 6396 6072 4871 20909 6495 5472 6824 7701 1641 1864 22993 33862 5511 5319 23808 4860 6844 42745 14939 15230 14557 5933 4767 5737 7287 15093 1628 5207 7413 4460 5487 4654 5828 8034 5407 8637 11285 14508 14704 22321 7376 7782 17008 8509 5297 5971 20753 15746 19780 5137 3735 21938 5450 15851 13366 11295 18201 5360 5525 2962 10873 9914 5311 2905 11397 6230 17814 8009 4193 989 28612 16350 5657 4844 5093 25071 25514 24794 21956 17712 7111 7858 5792 7882 4855 8164 6310 1163 8886 4629 4054 6426 13968 28805 17067 4903 8372 24270 6800 8151 24659 6045 5294 6410 10582 6617 5533 12218
Last daily increment 1 2 3 3 5 2 4 1 8 7 39 5 4 3 7 6 2 4 38 7 10 5 6 20 7 5 0 47 1 1 2 0 3 5 1 5 1 1 1 2 9 11 1 0 2 0 3 2 4 9 1 2 1 6 9 3 1 4 3 1 1 5 10 1 15 11 2 2 8 5 4 5 1 3 0 28 6 1 17 6 3 1 1 0 4 4 22 1 11 2 3 1 1 4 2 2 2 0 3 4 0 1 1 8 7 1 2 1 4 5 1 1 2 1 2 3 5 4 12 0 6 0 1 2 4 2 4 20 3 2 8 5 8 5 1 5 5 4 3 22 7 33 2 5 3 66 38 0 5 6 2 15 24 1 0 1 30 17 8 1 0 2 1 2 2 8 9 2 2 2 8 3 6 0 8 9 1 2 18 0 3 15 3 4 5 12 4 9 3 2 10 2 1 13 1 2 10 6 10 3 3 3 3 5 0 19 1 7 0 25 12 0 1 3 1 3 14 11 7 2 3 4 2 44 7 13 8 2 0 4 1 16 3 5 6 2 0 3 5 5 0 2 3 14 6 1 4 1 5 2 1 0 15 9 18 4 0 8 5 4 2 5 12 5 0 2 4 2 4 0 3 1 4 1 4 0 6 13 1 2 0 32 15 3 5 6 3 2 2 0 7 3 2 0 1 5 2 1 3 20 16 1 6 5 3 3 13 2 1 2 3 1 2 1
Last week 10 16 19 25 39 21 28 11 56 72 224 19 18 33 42 17 27 74 357 36 77 22 28 144 32 51 23 326 11 28 52 10 30 78 26 37 14 13 35 35 75 82 18 31 12 38 12 11 61 67 21 8 16 77 54 19 19 21 54 22 7 79 58 8 147 111 16 13 39 39 57 31 31 47 6 217 33 7 99 86 25 9 9 12 41 40 97 29 33 20 32 4 17 53 10 13 25 12 14 40 2 5 11 56 48 7 11 13 10 46 8 23 15 23 14 39 14 15 66 14 45 5 16 41 23 14 24 111 52 13 64 34 26 52 20 35 43 41 33 178 46 249 28 34 26 526 270 10 25 34 13 86 159 11 7 5 272 92 37 21 9 32 7 15 8 47 68 11 23 41 113 26 78 7 40 80 21 19 101 6 28 68 32 24 91 63 12 76 38 29 120 50 18 105 34 27 70 27 73 29 32 17 22 44 8 119 5 25 4 169 44 13 13 12 17 6 78 117 49 29 47 38 14 393 37 87 64 20 13 17 36 46 7 58 66 7 24 23 41 32 30 15 34 106 58 27 28 16 33 18 29 22 129 93 107 34 7 76 11 24 36 72 120 25 7 13 30 20 26 9 27 24 21 12 11 2 55 75 11 6 19 305 129 47 67 50 25 38 10 21 47 26 20 4 20 49 26 21 33 124 73 13 33 40 34 29 133 18 17 28 29 12 32 25
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1910-1110-2710-12 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1210-28 -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --11-02 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-2511-02 --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-29 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- --11-02 --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-29 --10-0709-2706-14 -- -- -- --09-28 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-25 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- --11-0310-26 --10-1310-13 --10-18 --10-12 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-0111-03 --09-30 -- --09-2910-30 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-06 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-17 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-05 -- -- -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 --11-03 --10-11 --10-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 62 29 77 72 95 164 99 55 235 135 55 71 321 57 70 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 68 293 144 20 165 29 55 31 32 55 75 41 129 71 25 71 31 56 65 48 43 52 59 152 86 540 75 530 611 61 73 391 51 58 68 610 256 82 102 95 43 41 42 196 64 43 67 237 232 86 183 435 112 65 24 70 76 118 183 125 31 127 177 46 90 48 138 134 58 91 320 137 38 31 65 130
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 9 54 28 19 61 34 27 21 81 19 33 55 9 32 16 55 18 31 14 106 70 9 53 7 18 15 8 17 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 24 18 13 11 14 21 19 23 154 15 58 136 19 34 54 14 16 7 70 57 19 40 25 13 12 20 62 22 19 14 49 91 18 26 119 34 22 11 28 24 30 46 48 9 58 33 15 31 7 27 34 21 19 77 21 9 11 18 16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-04-05 to 2021-04-11

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-04-04 2877 5029 8565 8182 9567 9750 11608 3833 23441 30186 18942 4242 17608 8153 8041 8186 13391 22282 100460 6983 17957 9178 5934 25748 4837 25195 7021 48297 10776 6713 28305 6873 14423 30552 6005 24271 6225 9086 7100 9863 17113 14335 5596 13987 7072 10083 8203 8315 15807 12363 12635 3731 9005 20721 21624 6096 4861 4227 7804 11292 3119 5703 14113 2541 37686 23524 2770 7900 30737 8480 7437 10298 4200 19976 2970 22947 11770 7833 26595 30814 2993 4172 4835 8159 6338 4749 17863 9560 8747 6617 5794 7300 29689 12408 5204 6992 4945 5220 5442 4762 13677 8118 6343 3838 10216 5478 22289 7311 11917 4182 12891 5063 20711 7911 7598 20588 4294 8809 7011 26801 6899 8177 4923 26249 6073 5641 24579 7780 7781 7541 6750 14905 8884 5953 7521 19385 12153 33217 17338 24091 9344 61552 36014 4897 21580 6560 6852 48451 20161 12662 3751 52390 8080 26072 2645 3423 16108 2212 3257 6784 12357 19889 4373 6124 7215 23288 8384 35259 1958 5935 8529 6326 5497 9126 2997 9990 12361 4303 6030 17932 17325 7367 30414 8413 4912 22786 9359 9600 15279 9165 14201 13714 10794 32649 9251 6233 9217 4572 10743 2598 21051 6072 20909 6495 5472 6824 7701 1641 1864 22993 33862 5511 5319 23808 4860 6844 42745 14939 15230 14557 5933 4767 5737 7287 15093 1628 5207 7413 4460 5487 4654 5828 8034 5407 8637 11285 14508 14704 22321 7376 7782 17008 8509 5297 5971 20753 15746 19780 5137 3735 21938 5450 15851 13366 11295 18201 5360 5525 2962 10873 9914 5311 2905 11397 6230 17814 8009 4193 28612 16350 5657 4844 5093 25071 25514 24794 21956 17712 7111 7858 5792 7882 4855 8164 6310 8886 4629 4054 6426 13968 28805 17067 4903 8372 24270 6800 8151 24659 6045 5294 6410 10582 6617 5533 12218
2021-04-05 2879 5032 8581 8197 9597 9762 11630 3835 23450 30210 18980 4245 17620 8159 8050 8194 13400 22290 100500 6991 17970 9192 5936 25770 4862 25200 7032 48360 10780 6752 28320 6875 14430 30630 6020 24280 6229 9089 7127 9879 17150 14350 5600 13990 7095 10100 8205 8316 15820 12380 12640 3734 9016 20770 21630 6100 4874 4231 7813 11300 3121 5741 14140 2542 37710 23580 2773 7901 30750 8487 7441 10310 4204 20020 2971 23060 11800 7836 26670 30870 2997 4175 4842 8162 6347 4759 17880 9573 8763 6629 5814 7303 29720 12410 5206 6997 4947 5229 5449 4763 13700 8126 6350 3846 10220 5481 22300 7313 11920 4184 12900 5064 20730 7912 7619 20620 4298 8818 7015 26810 6905 8180 4934 26260 6083 5644 24590 7786 7796 7570 6753 14910 8891 5962 7539 19420 12160 33330 17340 24100 9359 61740 36080 4900 21580 6573 6856 48460 20190 12680 3752 52530 8090 26080 2649 3429 16120 2214 3260 6787 12380 19900 4374 6134 7250 23310 8410 35290 1959 5939 8543 6332 5502 9133 3002 10000 12370 4311 6045 17970 17380 7371 30430 8430 4916 22800 9372 9604 15300 9204 14240 13750 10800 32670 9257 6235 9225 4576 10750 2598 21110 6077 20950 6506 5475 6825 7704 1644 1865 23090 33890 5518 5342 23820 4868 6847 42920 14970 15250 14570 5939 4770 5750 7308 15130 1630 5241 7454 4462 5489 4657 5843 8041 5438 8655 11290 14530 14710 22330 7381 7786 17020 8520 5305 5978 20800 15810 19800 5142 3737 21960 5452 15860 13380 11340 18270 5383 5527 2964 10890 9921 5316 2907 11400 6234 17820 8020 4196 28620 16380 5669 4846 5098 25160 25560 24800 21970 17770 7113 7863 5797 7887 4862 8175 6324 8909 4638 4060 6445 13990 28840 17100 4904 8381 24290 6806 8167 24690 6049 5299 6416 10610 6632 5542 12220
2021-04-06 2881 5040 8588 8207 9619 9768 11630 3838 23480 30230 19010 4249 17630 8172 8059 8200 13420 22310 100600 7009 17970 9203 5937 25770 4878 25210 7039 48400 10790 6779 28320 6881 14440 30670 6027 24300 6244 9095 7146 9888 17180 14360 5611 14010 7106 10110 8210 8322 15860 12410 12650 3740 9022 20810 21650 6112 4881 4234 7827 11320 3124 5766 14150 2543 37740 23610 2777 7907 30770 8496 7445 10310 4209 20040 2980 23120 11820 7845 26720 30910 3003 4188 4847 8171 6372 4783 17950 9578 8770 6634 5821 7311 29740 12420 5208 7011 4954 5234 5452 4769 13720 8144 6353 3850 10220 5484 22330 7325 11950 4188 12920 5065 20750 7915 7631 20640 4305 8838 7026 26830 6921 8187 4941 26270 6095 5650 24610 7786 7808 7583 6756 14930 8898 5975 7549 19440 12180 33400 17360 24130 9373 61880 36150 4906 21590 6585 6873 48470 20250 12690 3754 52620 8098 26100 2660 3434 16140 2220 3264 6794 12390 19940 4375 6140 7268 23340 8426 35320 1960 5945 8573 6344 5515 9155 3007 10010 12400 4328 6079 18000 17410 7385 30440 8441 4922 22820 9382 9618 15310 9227 14260 13780 10820 32700 9275 6240 9228 4586 10760 2601 21150 6092 20960 6530 5490 6833 7710 1647 1869 23140 33900 5522 5353 23820 4883 6852 43040 14980 15270 14580 5944 4776 5757 7320 15140 1631 5261 7477 4466 5491 4662 5847 8052 5453 8668 11300 14540 14720 22350 7389 7793 17030 8527 5316 5998 20840 15840 19850 5147 3746 21970 5456 15880 13400 11360 18310 5392 5533 2966 10900 9942 5323 2910 11420 6240 17820 8026 4203 28650 16400 5676 4855 5111 25250 25590 24830 22000 17800 7118 7864 5801 7893 4867 8181 6331 8921 4658 4069 6457 14000 28850 17120 4906 8401 24300 6815 8178 24720 6065 5306 6428 10620 6642 5549 12240
2021-04-07 2883 5046 8598 8213 9630 9776 11650 3840 23500 30240 19050 4252 17630 8182 8066 8204 13430 22320 100600 7022 17980 9212 5938 25790 4886 25210 7047 48420 10800 6798 28330 6885 14440 30700 6035 24320 6254 9100 7160 9896 17200 14360 5618 14020 7115 10120 8214 8326 15890 12430 12660 3745 9028 20830 21670 6120 4886 4239 7840 11340 3127 5789 14160 2544 37770 23650 2780 7911 30780 8504 7453 10320 4214 20060 2985 23170 11830 7851 26750 30930 3009 4197 4850 8176 6389 4801 17990 9581 8775 6638 5828 7317 29750 12430 5211 7021 4958 5237 5454 4772 13730 8157 6355 3855 10220 5485 22350 7332 11960 4191 12930 5067 20760 7917 7639 20660 4310 8853 7033 26840 6932 8192 4947 26280 6106 5654 24620 7792 7813 7596 6759 14950 8905 5986 7559 19470 12190 33460 17370 24140 9378 61990 36200 4910 21600 6597 6883 48480 20300 12690 3756 52690 8114 26120 2668 3438 16160 2224 3268 6798 12400 19960 4376 6148 7284 23370 8438 35330 1961 5954 8596 6353 5525 9170 3009 10010 12420 4341 6103 18030 17440 7394 30450 8456 4927 22820 9394 9627 15330 9249 14280 13800 10830 32730 9287 6243 9232 4594 10770 2603 21170 6102 20970 6548 5500 6837 7714 1650 1872 23180 33910 5528 5365 23820 4895 6856 43140 14990 15280 14600 5948 4779 5762 7330 15150 1632 5279 7501 4468 5492 4665 5859 8061 5467 8676 11310 14560 14730 22360 7395 7799 17030 8532 5324 6012 20870 15860 19880 5152 3752 21980 5460 15890 13410 11380 18350 5400 5538 2967 10900 9956 5329 2911 11440 6244 17830 8029 4208 28670 16410 5679 4860 5121 25320 25620 24840 22020 17840 7121 7866 5804 7896 4872 8186 6339 8930 4673 4076 6464 14010 28870 17140 4907 8416 24320 6820 8191 24750 6075 5312 6437 10640 6647 5560 12250
2021-04-08 2884 5051 8602 8221 9643 9779 11650 3842 23510 30250 19080 4257 17640 8190 8069 8209 13440 22330 100600 7032 17990 9217 5940 25800 4894 25220 7049 48440 10810 6811 28340 6888 14450 30720 6042 24330 6261 9104 7176 9907 17220 14380 5624 14030 7121 10130 8217 8328 15910 12450 12660 3749 9033 20860 21680 6126 4892 4244 7850 11350 3129 5808 14180 2545 37800 23660 2784 7914 30790 8511 7462 10330 4218 20080 2988 23230 11840 7856 26770 30950 3013 4203 4852 8181 6402 4815 18020 9585 8786 6643 5836 7321 29760 12440 5213 7028 4961 5243 5461 4775 13740 8168 6357 3858 10230 5487 22370 7337 11970 4193 12940 5068 20760 7919 7644 20680 4315 8865 7039 26860 6940 8196 4951 26290 6117 5658 24630 7799 7820 7611 6761 14960 8912 5995 7568 19500 12200 33520 17380 24160 9384 62100 36250 4914 21600 6604 6891 48500 20340 12700 3757 52750 8130 26130 2675 3439 16170 2228 3271 6802 12410 19980 4377 6152 7296 23390 8447 35350 1962 5956 8614 6360 5532 9181 3012 10020 12440 4352 6121 18050 17460 7400 30460 8465 4932 22830 9404 9634 15340 9264 14290 13810 10840 32750 9297 6246 9236 4600 10780 2604 21210 6109 20980 6562 5507 6840 7717 1652 1874 23220 33920 5534 5373 23830 4905 6859 43220 15000 15300 14610 5954 4782 5766 7340 15160 1633 5290 7516 4470 5498 4669 5866 8069 5475 8681 11310 14560 14740 22370 7401 7803 17040 8538 5329 6023 20900 15890 19910 5157 3756 21990 5462 15900 13420 11400 18380 5409 5541 2969 10910 9967 5334 2912 11450 6249 17830 8032 4212 28680 16430 5683 4864 5128 25370 25650 24860 22040 17870 7123 7869 5807 7900 4878 8190 6344 8938 4685 4082 6470 14020 28880 17150 4908 8428 24330 6827 8200 24760 6083 5316 6445 10650 6652 5566 12260
2021-04-09 2886 5055 8607 8223 9650 9783 11660 3844 23530 30260 19110 4259 17640 8197 8075 8212 13440 22340 100600 7042 17990 9220 5941 25800 4900 25220 7053 48460 10810 6824 28350 6891 14450 30740 6047 24340 6268 9107 7182 9916 17240 14390 5629 14030 7124 10140 8220 8330 15930 12460 12670 3752 9037 20870 21690 6132 4897 4245 7861 11360 3132 5824 14190 2546 37820 23680 2787 7916 30800 8518 7467 10340 4222 20090 2991 23270 11850 7860 26790 30970 3018 4208 4855 8185 6415 4828 18050 9592 8793 6647 5840 7326 29770 12440 5215 7035 4964 5247 5466 4777 13750 8178 6357 3861 10230 5488 22380 7341 11980 4195 12950 5070 20770 7921 7648 20690 4320 8877 7045 26870 6948 8200 4957 26300 6128 5661 24640 7809 7823 7618 6764 14970 8919 6004 7580 19520 12210 33570 17390 24170 9389 62210 36300 4917 21600 6608 6898 48520 20370 12700 3758 52800 8142 26140 2681 3441 16180 2231 3274 6806 12420 19990 4378 6157 7307 23420 8451 35360 1963 5962 8631 6367 5539 9191 3013 10020 12450 4362 6139 18060 17470 7406 30470 8472 4936 22840 9410 9641 15350 9278 14310 13830 10850 32770 9305 6249 9240 4605 10790 2605 21230 6116 21000 6575 5513 6842 7721 1655 1876 23250 33930 5540 5378 23840 4914 6862 43290 15010 15310 14630 5957 4785 5770 7347 15170 1634 5301 7525 4472 5500 4672 5873 8076 5485 8686 11320 14580 14750 22380 7406 7806 17050 8542 5334 6032 20920 15900 19940 5159 3759 22000 5465 15900 13430 11420 18400 5414 5543 2971 10920 9978 5339 2914 11460 6253 17830 8035 4216 28700 16440 5685 4867 5135 25430 25670 24870 22050 17890 7125 7873 5809 7901 4884 8196 6347 8944 4697 4089 6475 14030 28880 17160 4909 8440 24330 6830 8205 24790 6089 5318 6452 10650 6656 5572 12270
2021-04-10 2887 5058 8609 8225 9654 9787 11660 3845 23540 30270 19140 4259 17640 8204 8075 8213 13450 22350 100600 7050 17990 9220 5943 25800 4902 25220 7056 48470 10820 6830 28360 6893 14450 30750 6048 24350 6273 9110 7184 9920 17240 14400 5634 14040 7124 10140 8222 8332 15950 12480 12680 3755 9037 20880 21700 6137 4898 4246 7870 11370 3134 5836 14190 2547 37850 23690 2790 7917 30810 8524 7473 10340 4226 20090 2992 23290 11860 7863 26800 30980 3022 4212 4855 8188 6425 4839 18070 9592 8796 6650 5845 7329 29780 12450 5217 7041 4967 5248 5468 4778 13750 8187 6358 3861 10230 5490 22400 7344 11990 4197 12960 5071 20780 7922 7649 20700 4324 8887 7049 26880 6955 8203 4960 26310 6138 5664 24660 7809 7824 7623 6767 14980 8926 6012 7583 19530 12220 33600 17400 24180 9393 62260 36330 4920 21610 6608 6903 48520 20410 12700 3760 52820 8153 26150 2686 3443 16190 2233 3277 6809 12420 20010 4379 6160 7313 23440 8451 35380 1964 5966 8646 6373 5545 9200 3013 10020 12470 4371 6154 18070 17480 7411 30480 8475 4941 22840 9413 9646 15350 9287 14320 13830 10860 32780 9312 6251 9242 4609 10800 2606 21240 6122 21000 6587 5518 6844 7723 1658 1877 23270 33930 5546 5381 23840 4923 6865 43340 15010 15320 14630 5958 4788 5773 7354 15180 1635 5305 7534 4474 5505 4675 5877 8083 5489 8687 11320 14580 14760 22390 7411 7810 17060 8545 5334 6040 20930 15910 19960 5159 3762 22000 5467 15910 13430 11420 18410 5416 5546 2972 10920 9986 5344 2916 11470 6257 17840 8037 4219 28710 16450 5687 4870 5141 25470 25680 24880 22070 17900 7127 7877 5809 7902 4890 8201 6349 8947 4706 4095 6478 14030 28880 17170 4911 8450 24330 6835 8206 24800 6095 5319 6459 10650 6657 5576 12270
2021-04-11 2889 5062 8613 8229 9662 9790 11670 3847 23560 30280 19170 4263 17640 8211 8078 8218 13460 22360 100700 7058 18000 9226 5944 25830 4910 25230 7059 48510 10820 6831 28360 6896 14460 30750 6052 24360 6278 9113 7189 9924 17260 14420 5639 14050 7127 10150 8224 8332 15960 12490 12680 3757 9040 20890 21700 6142 4900 4250 7880 11380 3136 5844 14210 2548 37870 23710 2793 7919 30820 8531 7477 10350 4230 20100 2993 23340 11870 7866 26830 30990 3026 4216 4857 8190 6434 4850 18090 9594 8804 6653 5852 7333 29780 12450 5219 7046 4970 5251 5473 4779 13760 8196 6360 3864 10230 5493 22410 7347 11990 4199 12970 5072 20780 7923 7654 20710 4328 8896 7054 26880 6961 8206 4965 26320 6149 5667 24670 7813 7833 7632 6769 14990 8932 6020 7588 19550 12230 33630 17400 24190 9396 62340 36370 4922 21610 6614 6907 48540 20440 12700 3761 52860 8170 26160 2690 3444 16200 2235 3280 6812 12430 20020 4379 6164 7317 23460 8456 35390 1965 5974 8659 6378 5550 9208 3014 10020 12480 4380 6168 18080 17500 7416 30490 8481 4945 22850 9417 9650 15360 9289 14320 13840 10860 32800 9319 6254 9245 4613 10810 2606 21260 6127 21020 6598 5522 6845 7726 1661 1878 23290 33930 5553 5385 23840 4931 6868 43410 15020 15340 14640 5961 4790 5779 7357 15190 1637 5314 7544 4476 5508 4679 5883 8090 5493 8691 11330 14600 14770 22400 7416 7813 17060 8548 5338 6048 20950 15930 19980 5163 3764 22010 5469 15920 13430 11430 18430 5425 5548 2974 10920 9995 5349 2917 11470 6261 17840 8040 4222 28720 16470 5689 4872 5146 25500 25700 24890 22080 17910 7129 7881 5811 7903 4896 8205 6352 8951 4716 4100 6482 14040 28910 17190 4912 8459 24340 6839 8210 24810 6100 5322 6465 10660 6660 5579 12280

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-04-05 to 2021-04-11

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-04-04 2877 5029 8565 8182 9567 9750 11608 3833 23441 30186 18942 4242 17608 8153 8041 8186 13391 22282 100460 6983 17957 9178 5934 25748 4837 25195 7021 48297 10776 6713 28305 6873 14423 30552 6005 24271 6225 9086 7100 9863 17113 14335 5596 13987 7072 10083 8203 8315 15807 12363 12635 3731 9005 20721 21624 6096 4861 4227 7804 11292 3119 5703 14113 2541 37686 23524 2770 7900 30737 8480 7437 10298 4200 19976 2970 22947 11770 7833 26595 30814 2993 4172 4835 8159 6338 4749 17863 9560 8747 6617 5794 7300 29689 12408 5204 6992 4945 5220 5442 4762 13677 8118 6343 3838 10216 5478 22289 7311 11917 4182 12891 5063 20711 7911 7598 20588 4294 8809 7011 26801 6899 8177 4923 26249 6073 5641 24579 7780 7781 7541 6750 14905 8884 5953 7521 19385 12153 33217 17338 24091 9344 61552 36014 4897 21580 6560 6852 48451 20161 12662 3751 52390 8080 26072 2645 3423 16108 2212 3257 6784 12357 19889 4373 6124 7215 23288 8384 35259 1958 5935 8529 6326 5497 9126 2997 9990 12361 4303 6030 17932 17325 7367 30414 8413 4912 22786 9359 9600 15279 9165 14201 13714 10794 32649 9251 6233 9217 4572 10743 2598 21051 6072 20909 6495 5472 6824 7701 1641 1864 22993 33862 5511 5319 23808 4860 6844 42745 14939 15230 14557 5933 4767 5737 7287 15093 1628 5207 7413 4460 5487 4654 5828 8034 5407 8637 11285 14508 14704 22321 7376 7782 17008 8509 5297 5971 20753 15746 19780 5137 3735 21938 5450 15851 13366 11295 18201 5360 5525 2962 10873 9914 5311 2905 11397 6230 17814 8009 4193 28612 16350 5657 4844 5093 25071 25514 24794 21956 17712 7111 7858 5792 7882 4855 8164 6310 8886 4629 4054 6426 13968 28805 17067 4903 8372 24270 6800 8151 24659 6045 5294 6410 10582 6617 5533 12218
2021-04-05 2878 5032 8570 8189 9572 9755 11620 3835 23450 30210 18980 4244 17610 8158 8049 8189 13400 22300 100500 6990 17970 9182 5938 25770 4848 25210 7025 48360 10780 6723 28310 6874 14430 30570 6010 24280 6228 9089 7106 9869 17130 14350 5600 13990 7077 10090 8205 8318 15820 12380 12640 3734 9008 20740 21630 6100 4866 4230 7811 11300 3121 5717 14120 2542 37710 23550 2773 7902 30750 8486 7445 10310 4203 19990 2974 22990 11780 7835 26620 30830 2997 4175 4838 8161 6347 4757 17870 9566 8755 6623 5801 7303 29700 12410 5205 6997 4947 5223 5447 4765 13690 8125 6346 3840 10220 5480 22300 7314 11920 4185 12900 5064 20720 7914 7605 20600 4298 8817 7014 26810 6901 8180 4928 26270 6081 5644 24590 7785 7787 7553 6753 14910 8890 5960 7528 19410 12160 33270 17340 24100 9348 61650 36060 4899 21590 6565 6856 48460 20190 12670 3751 52450 8093 26080 2649 3425 16120 2214 3260 6786 12370 19900 4375 6127 7227 23310 8390 35270 1959 5940 8542 6329 5502 9149 2998 9990 12380 4311 6032 17950 17340 7372 30430 8418 4916 22810 9367 9603 15290 9175 14210 13730 10800 32670 9256 6237 9223 4576 10750 2600 21080 6078 20940 6507 5476 6827 7704 1643 1866 23020 33880 5516 5327 23820 4867 6846 42820 14950 15240 14560 5936 4769 5743 7295 15110 1630 5221 7431 4462 5489 4657 5838 8040 5415 8639 11290 14520 14710 22330 7381 7785 17010 8513 5299 5977 20770 15770 19800 5140 3737 21950 5453 15860 13370 11310 18220 5367 5527 2964 10880 9920 5315 2906 11400 6233 17820 8012 4196 28620 16370 5661 4846 5097 25110 25540 24800 21970 17730 7115 7861 5795 7885 4862 8170 6316 8889 4637 4058 6432 13980 28820 17090 4904 8380 24280 6804 8155 24680 6050 5295 6416 10590 6621 5537 12220
2021-04-06 2880 5037 8574 8195 9584 9760 11620 3836 23470 30220 19020 4246 17610 8166 8060 8192 13410 22310 100600 7000 17990 9189 5940 25800 4861 25220 7032 48440 10790 6737 28330 6876 14430 30600 6017 24290 6234 9093 7119 9875 17140 14370 5606 14000 7084 10100 8208 8322 15840 12390 12640 3737 9011 20760 21660 6107 4871 4234 7821 11310 3124 5740 14140 2543 37740 23580 2777 7907 30760 8493 7452 10310 4206 20010 2980 23030 11790 7840 26660 30860 3002 4180 4841 8164 6360 4768 17900 9574 8761 6626 5808 7307 29720 12420 5208 7004 4951 5226 5452 4768 13700 8134 6349 3843 10220 5481 22310 7318 11930 4188 12910 5066 20730 7918 7612 20610 4303 8829 7020 26820 6908 8184 4935 26290 6095 5646 24610 7793 7795 7561 6755 14920 8899 5970 7532 19440 12170 33320 17350 24120 9355 61760 36110 4902 21600 6573 6863 48480 20230 12670 3753 52520 8104 26100 2655 3428 16130 2217 3263 6790 12380 19920 4376 6132 7237 23330 8397 35290 1960 5945 8560 6336 5509 9181 3001 10000 12390 4325 6041 17970 17360 7378 30450 8425 4921 22840 9378 9607 15310 9188 14210 13750 10810 32690 9264 6242 9226 4581 10760 2604 21100 6084 20980 6522 5482 6831 7709 1646 1868 23040 33890 5521 5335 23830 4878 6849 42920 14960 15260 14570 5939 4772 5748 7304 15120 1631 5236 7451 4464 5491 4661 5843 8048 5428 8644 11300 14540 14720 22340 7387 7789 17020 8518 5306 5989 20800 15800 19820 5146 3740 21970 5455 15870 13390 11330 18250 5373 5530 2965 10880 9932 5321 2908 11410 6237 17830 8016 4199 28630 16380 5666 4850 5103 25180 25560 24820 21980 17740 7119 7864 5798 7890 4868 8176 6321 8894 4649 4064 6439 13990 28840 17100 4905 8391 24290 6810 8163 24700 6058 5299 6423 10600 6629 5542 12230
2021-04-07 2881 5041 8580 8199 9590 9766 11630 3838 23480 30230 19050 4248 17620 8173 8070 8195 13410 22320 100700 7008 18000 9195 5945 25830 4870 25230 7039 48520 10790 6747 28340 6878 14440 30630 6025 24300 6238 9096 7130 9882 17160 14380 5612 14000 7090 10110 8210 8324 15860 12400 12650 3740 9013 20780 21680 6111 4875 4237 7828 11320 3127 5762 14150 2545 37760 23600 2781 7910 30770 8500 7458 10320 4210 20020 2985 23070 11800 7844 26690 30880 3006 4183 4843 8168 6370 4778 17910 9582 8766 6630 5814 7311 29730 12420 5211 7011 4954 5230 5458 4771 13720 8142 6352 3846 10220 5482 22320 7321 11930 4191 12920 5068 20740 7920 7617 20620 4308 8840 7024 26830 6914 8188 4942 26300 6108 5648 24620 7802 7800 7571 6758 14930 8906 5980 7538 19470 12180 33370 17360 24130 9357 61870 36160 4905 21600 6582 6869 48500 20260 12680 3754 52580 8120 26110 2660 3432 16140 2219 3265 6793 12380 19940 4378 6138 7248 23350 8403 35310 1961 5953 8576 6342 5516 9209 3003 10010 12410 4337 6050 17990 17370 7384 30460 8437 4926 22870 9391 9611 15330 9201 14220 13770 10820 32710 9271 6247 9231 4585 10770 2607 21130 6089 21020 6534 5487 6834 7712 1649 1869 23060 33910 5527 5344 23840 4888 6851 43010 14970 15270 14580 5943 4775 5753 7312 15130 1632 5251 7473 4466 5494 4665 5854 8054 5440 8647 11310 14560 14730 22340 7392 7793 17020 8523 5312 5999 20830 15820 19840 5153 3744 21980 5458 15880 13400 11350 18280 5379 5532 2967 10890 9943 5327 2909 11420 6242 17830 8020 4201 28640 16390 5669 4852 5108 25240 25590 24830 22000 17750 7122 7866 5800 7892 4873 8181 6327 8897 4659 4069 6444 13990 28850 17120 4907 8402 24300 6814 8173 24720 6062 5302 6429 10610 6634 5548 12240
2021-04-08 2883 5044 8583 8206 9599 9770 11640 3840 23500 30240 19090 4250 17620 8179 8078 8199 13420 22330 100800 7016 18020 9199 5948 25860 4878 25230 7043 48580 10790 6755 28350 6880 14440 30650 6032 24310 6241 9099 7142 9890 17180 14400 5617 14010 7094 10120 8212 8327 15870 12410 12650 3743 9016 20790 21690 6115 4880 4240 7833 11330 3130 5781 14160 2546 37790 23620 2784 7913 30770 8506 7466 10330 4214 20030 2989 23110 11810 7847 26710 30890 3011 4187 4845 8171 6380 4786 17920 9589 8774 6634 5822 7315 29740 12420 5213 7016 4957 5233 5468 4773 13720 8148 6354 3849 10220 5483 22340 7323 11940 4193 12930 5070 20750 7922 7621 20630 4312 8851 7028 26840 6920 8191 4947 26320 6120 5650 24640 7810 7806 7582 6761 14940 8913 5988 7544 19490 12190 33420 17370 24140 9360 61980 36210 4908 21610 6588 6873 48510 20290 12680 3756 52640 8135 26120 2665 3433 16150 2221 3268 6795 12390 19950 4379 6143 7257 23370 8409 35320 1962 5955 8591 6347 5521 9234 3005 10010 12420 4347 6057 18010 17390 7388 30480 8445 4931 22890 9401 9615 15350 9211 14230 13780 10820 32730 9277 6252 9234 4588 10770 2610 21160 6093 21050 6546 5491 6837 7714 1653 1870 23080 33920 5533 5350 23840 4897 6854 43090 14970 15290 14590 5948 4778 5757 7321 15130 1634 5262 7489 4468 5499 4668 5862 8058 5449 8649 11310 14580 14740 22350 7396 7797 17030 8527 5316 6007 20850 15840 19850 5158 3746 22000 5460 15880 13410 11370 18310 5386 5535 2968 10900 9952 5332 2910 11420 6246 17840 8022 4203 28650 16400 5672 4854 5112 25280 25620 24840 22010 17760 7125 7870 5802 7895 4880 8186 6332 8901 4668 4075 6448 14000 28860 17130 4909 8412 24310 6819 8181 24730 6067 5305 6433 10620 6638 5553 12250
2021-04-09 2884 5048 8587 8208 9605 9775 11650 3841 23510 30250 19120 4251 17630 8185 8088 8202 13430 22340 100800 7023 18030 9203 5950 25900 4887 25240 7048 48650 10800 6766 28370 6881 14450 30670 6038 24320 6244 9102 7151 9898 17200 14410 5622 14010 7098 10120 8214 8329 15890 12420 12650 3745 9018 20810 21710 6120 4886 4243 7840 11340 3132 5801 14170 2547 37820 23650 2788 7917 30780 8512 7472 10340 4218 20040 2992 23150 11820 7850 26740 30910 3015 4189 4847 8173 6389 4801 17940 9599 8780 6639 5827 7319 29750 12430 5215 7020 4959 5236 5477 4776 13740 8156 6355 3851 10220 5484 22340 7325 11940 4196 12940 5072 20750 7925 7625 20640 4316 8861 7031 26850 6925 8195 4954 26340 6132 5652 24650 7819 7811 7587 6764 14950 8919 5997 7553 19510 12200 33480 17370 24150 9363 62100 36250 4910 21620 6593 6877 48530 20320 12680 3757 52700 8147 26120 2670 3436 16160 2223 3271 6798 12400 19970 4381 6148 7267 23400 8412 35330 1963 5959 8603 6353 5526 9257 3007 10020 12430 4357 6062 18030 17400 7392 30500 8451 4936 22920 9409 9617 15370 9222 14240 13790 10830 32740 9284 6256 9236 4592 10780 2612 21180 6096 21100 6556 5495 6840 7718 1655 1871 23100 33940 5537 5356 23860 4906 6856 43170 14980 15300 14610 5951 4780 5761 7329 15140 1635 5274 7504 4470 5501 4671 5868 8063 5460 8653 11320 14600 14750 22360 7401 7800 17040 8531 5321 6015 20880 15860 19860 5163 3748 22010 5462 15890 13410 11390 18330 5391 5537 2969 10900 9960 5337 2911 11430 6250 17840 8026 4205 28660 16410 5675 4856 5115 25330 25640 24850 22030 17770 7128 7873 5804 7896 4885 8192 6337 8905 4677 4080 6454 14010 28880 17140 4910 8422 24320 6822 8187 24740 6073 5307 6438 10630 6644 5559 12250
2021-04-10 2885 5051 8590 8212 9613 9780 11650 3843 23520 30270 19160 4252 17630 8191 8094 8204 13430 22350 100900 7030 18040 9206 5953 25920 4895 25250 7053 48730 10800 6772 28380 6883 14460 30690 6042 24330 6247 9104 7159 9905 17210 14430 5627 14020 7103 10130 8215 8331 15900 12430 12650 3748 9019 20830 21730 6125 4889 4245 7847 11340 3135 5820 14180 2548 37840 23670 2791 7921 30790 8518 7478 10350 4221 20060 2995 23180 11830 7853 26760 30930 3019 4192 4848 8175 6398 4809 17960 9606 8786 6642 5833 7322 29760 12430 5218 7025 4962 5240 5485 4778 13750 8161 6357 3853 10230 5486 22350 7327 11950 4198 12950 5073 20760 7927 7628 20650 4320 8870 7035 26860 6931 8198 4959 26350 6143 5654 24660 7827 7816 7593 6766 14960 8926 6005 7557 19530 12210 33520 17380 24150 9367 62180 36300 4913 21630 6598 6881 48550 20350 12690 3758 52750 8159 26130 2675 3439 16170 2225 3273 6800 12410 19980 4382 6152 7275 23420 8415 35350 1964 5962 8615 6358 5531 9280 3008 10020 12450 4367 6071 18050 17420 7396 30510 8457 4941 22940 9415 9620 15370 9231 14250 13810 10840 32760 9290 6261 9240 4595 10780 2614 21200 6100 21140 6566 5498 6842 7720 1659 1872 23120 33950 5541 5361 23860 4914 6858 43250 14990 15310 14620 5953 4783 5765 7337 15150 1636 5285 7521 4471 5504 4674 5874 8068 5472 8656 11320 14620 14760 22360 7404 7803 17040 8534 5323 6022 20900 15880 19880 5168 3750 22030 5464 15890 13420 11400 18360 5397 5539 2970 10910 9967 5341 2912 11430 6254 17850 8029 4206 28670 16420 5678 4857 5118 25370 25660 24860 22040 17780 7130 7877 5806 7897 4890 8197 6340 8909 4686 4083 6459 14020 28890 17150 4912 8430 24320 6825 8191 24750 6077 5309 6443 10640 6649 5563 12260
2021-04-11 2887 5055 8594 8217 9622 9784 11660 3845 23540 30280 19190 4253 17630 8197 8103 8209 13440 22360 101000 7039 18060 9212 5955 25970 4905 25260 7059 48810 10810 6776 28390 6884 14470 30710 6050 24340 6250 9107 7170 9912 17230 14440 5632 14020 7109 10140 8217 8333 15920 12440 12660 3751 9021 20840 21750 6130 4893 4248 7855 11350 3137 5839 14200 2549 37870 23690 2795 7929 30800 8524 7482 10350 4223 20080 2998 23240 11840 7855 26790 30950 3023 4194 4852 8177 6407 4819 17970 9617 8793 6648 5845 7326 29770 12430 5223 7030 4964 5243 5494 4780 13760 8168 6360 3857 10230 5487 22360 7329 11950 4200 12950 5075 20770 7930 7632 20650 4325 8881 7038 26870 6942 8200 4966 26370 6157 5657 24670 7835 7824 7604 6769 14960 8933 6013 7563 19550 12210 33570 17380 24160 9370 62290 36340 4915 21630 6604 6885 48560 20370 12690 3760 52820 8175 26140 2679 3442 16180 2227 3276 6804 12420 20000 4383 6158 7283 23440 8422 35360 1965 5967 8628 6363 5536 9302 3010 10020 12460 4377 6077 18060 17440 7400 30520 8466 4945 22970 9423 9623 15390 9240 14250 13830 10850 32780 9297 6265 9243 4598 10790 2616 21220 6104 21190 6576 5501 6845 7723 1662 1873 23150 33970 5546 5368 23870 4922 6860 43340 15000 15320 14630 5956 4785 5772 7345 15170 1638 5298 7539 4473 5510 4678 5883 8073 5483 8660 11330 14640 14770 22370 7408 7807 17050 8539 5328 6029 20920 15910 19890 5175 3752 22050 5466 15900 13430 11420 18390 5408 5540 2971 10910 9977 5346 2914 11440 6258 17850 8035 4209 28680 16430 5682 4859 5121 25410 25690 24870 22050 17790 7133 7880 5808 7899 4896 8203 6345 8915 4695 4089 6466 14020 28920 17170 4913 8440 24330 6829 8198 24760 6081 5312 6450 10640 6654 5567 12260

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.