COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-04-12 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-04-12

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-04-12

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-3012-2712-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3012-2712-2212-2812-2712-272021-01-032021-01-072021-01-0111-1512-2812-2210-2912-2212-2712-2712-1312-2711-0112-2512-2112-2712-2212-3012-3012-2711-0312-2112-2712-2512-0812-2712-2112-212021-01-0412-2212-2912-2612-2212-212021-01-0412-2112-212021-01-0212-2612-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-3012-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-212021-01-022021-03-1010-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-2412-2912-2412-2111-0212-2610-3112-2712-2912-2812-2112-2512-2212-2612-1412-232021-01-0612-2912-2312-2812-1812-252021-01-0412-2712-2612-2112-2712-2212-2112-2712-2112-2712-2212-2112-2112-2112-2212-2712-2712-2212-2212-1312-2712-1312-2812-2112-2912-2712-2812-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2212-2812-2812-2510-2812-2110-2712-2712-2912-3012-2712-2812-2112-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2312-212021-01-0412-302021-01-0312-2211-042021-01-0712-2112-2112-2112-2212-2512-2212-2612-2812-292021-01-0311-0412-2812-0812-2710-2512-2612-2111-0412-2112-2911-0312-212021-01-0412-2712-2112-3012-2912-2112-2712-2812-2712-2712-312021-01-0612-292021-01-0212-2912-212021-01-062021-01-0612-2212-2812-2112-2712-2812-1312-3112-1310-1712-3012-2712-2712-252021-01-2612-2812-2912-292021-01-0312-2112-3112-2912-2412-2712-3012-2512-2712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0912-2412-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-212021-01-0312-2510-3112-2212-2812-2111-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-2512-2812-3012-2312-3012-3112-2712-2112-2612-2112-1912-1212-2312-3012-2112-2212-2812-2212-2612-2110-2812-2812-2712-1812-2512-2112-2212-2212-2112-2712-2512-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2712-2712-2912-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-3012-2112-3012-3012-30
Peak daily increment 61 88 97 180 109 172 178 78 478 586 191 59 326 131 108 108 232 424 1250 70 158 67 58 158 49 485 141 440 228 107 524 154 310 319 107 505 94 189 62 123 123 141 97 255 87 149 171 173 301 89 264 52 200 250 283 61 90 71 66 244 53 95 285 35 367 289 38 184 598 151 69 189 72 246 27 249 187 118 322 539 60 52 76 160 109 52 224 102 164 146 108 54 143 588 271 94 74 53 89 73 125 53 38 122 80 92 56 180 90 448 120 220 59 199 57 398 176 104 339 101 110 135 121 478 101 159 47 444 57 116 450 139 84 134 236 275 148 71 100 296 197 360 310 429 107 380 287 104 444 72 111 735 271 199 89 37 377 89 418 29 46 297 49 62 148 119 362 79 105 63 123 85 726 23 50 159 105 51 109 59 123 121 41 55 275 158 122 225 89 44 125 127 109 154 117 203 103 173 621 83 81 174 52 187 40 133 139 56 96 198 80 86 59 174 36 26 163 450 42 82 403 65 130 243 209 245 167 98 107 101 69 179 27 42 85 83 96 80 109 80 67 102 113 247 294 456 131 152 218 93 57 112 178 132 194 66 42 202 106 320 188 181 125 55 108 46 139 321 91 45 138 123 369 138 49 11 558 153 92 107 85 258 324 451 387 229 76 136 117 159 65 154 87 28 83 42 67 115 217 219 264 84 148 429 106 139 376 106 114 95 173 71 69 187
Days since peak 106 103 106 112 106 125 112 110 107 110 181 106 110 105 91 103 106 111 105 106 106 99 95 101 148 105 111 165 111 106 106 120 106 162 108 112 106 111 103 103 106 160 112 106 108 125 106 112 112 98 111 104 107 111 112 98 112 112 100 107 106 105 104 111 111 103 105 106 106 112 108 112 112 100 33 180 106 126 107 106 109 104 109 112 161 107 163 106 104 105 112 108 111 107 119 110 96 104 110 105 115 108 98 106 107 112 106 111 112 106 112 106 111 112 112 112 111 106 106 111 111 120 106 120 105 112 104 106 105 109 108 112 101 105 106 111 105 105 108 166 112 167 106 104 103 106 105 112 106 106 134 106 106 110 112 98 103 99 111 159 95 112 112 112 111 108 111 107 105 104 99 159 105 125 106 169 107 112 159 112 104 160 112 98 106 112 103 104 112 106 105 106 106 102 96 104 100 104 112 96 96 111 105 112 106 105 120 102 120 177 103 106 106 108 76 105 104 104 99 112 102 104 109 106 103 108 106 112 111 112 105 107 108 98 111 154 109 111 113 99 105 106 111 112 119 105 107 112 99 108 163 111 105 112 162 112 110 111 106 112 126 108 105 103 110 103 102 106 112 107 112 114 121 110 103 112 111 105 111 107 112 166 105 106 115 108 112 111 111 112 106 108 113 120 105 126 111 106 106 104 104 111 111 105 106 111 106 101 105 103 112 103 103 103
Last total 2878 5037 8557 8209 9593 9745 11636 3830 23484 30283 19136 4253 17600 8164 8074 8186 13410 22294 100717 7017 18050 9174 5925 25870 4890 25190 7033 48800 10781 6714 28367 6875 14442 30619 5993 24273 6219 9089 7103 9876 17155 14389 5639 14008 7068 10062 8198 8332 15862 12418 12639 3735 9029 20752 21644 6106 4860 4232 7841 11293 3131 5763 14076 2540 37757 23589 2785 7905 30771 8488 7470 10317 4222 20013 2966 23233 11780 7815 26653 30906 3003 4165 4835 8165 6355 4774 17997 9581 8759 6611 5792 2974 7303 29651 12397 5212 7001 4946 5223 5483 8049 3076 4770 13709 8140 6338 3834 10228 5474 22288 7314 11907 4179 12909 5068 20718 7920 7606 20659 4303 8840 6185 7019 26816 6906 8186 4951 26345 6104 5646 24678 7787 7812 7588 6764 14928 8915 5990 7550 19628 12189 33548 17321 24116 9369 61997 36257 4894 21579 6557 6844 48317 20350 12649 3751 2769 52659 8167 26048 2678 3430 16150 2217 3264 6786 12406 19987 4374 6129 7238 23393 8387 35386 1953 5968 8607 6338 5496 9252 2990 9995 12426 4326 6048 18031 17388 7368 30519 8463 4936 22927 9413 9623 15437 9089 14204 13756 10824 32742 9273 6183 9211 4573 10781 2609 21167 6405 6075 4865 21103 6519 5484 6821 7699 1644 1869 23074 33977 5526 5319 23801 4902 6852 43121 14920 15329 14585 5932 4782 5753 7284 15115 1634 5269 7467 4464 5496 4665 5844 8077 5413 8630 11293 14620 14733 22320 7384 7801 17004 8510 5304 5989 20827 15808 19884 5152 3723 22001 5451 15855 13347 11332 18255 5377 5520 2964 10888 9921 5338 2902 11394 6247 17842 7998 4204 983 28685 16407 5652 4840 5111 25341 25602 24823 22018 17761 7122 7880 5784 7875 4915 8184 6317 1163 8899 4638 4062 6417 14043 28932 17085 4907 8409 24200 6823 8158 24674 6049 5298 6405 10631 6622 5536 12168
Last daily increment 0 3 2 7 8 4 6 2 7 18 26 3 5 3 5 1 4 4 42 5 10 1 5 27 6 6 4 68 3 1 14 2 3 14 1 4 1 2 1 3 6 10 9 6 0 12 1 0 14 14 4 7 5 10 8 2 3 0 6 9 3 6 5 0 22 12 1 0 7 3 2 2 6 6 2 45 6 0 15 18 1 1 2 2 10 5 20 1 8 1 6 0 2 6 0 0 2 1 1 7 4 0 3 6 0 3 1 2 4 7 9 3 1 11 3 9 1 6 3 4 1 1 6 9 4 2 7 24 1 1 13 9 3 10 0 2 6 4 9 28 3 42 2 4 6 49 37 0 2 0 3 14 39 3 0 1 51 12 2 3 5 6 4 5 1 6 17 1 2 2 16 4 20 1 1 16 3 2 16 0 5 8 2 3 16 8 1 18 14 3 17 6 2 21 6 7 7 4 15 4 1 2 0 9 3 16 0 1 0 33 9 2 0 3 4 3 14 14 7 4 8 10 3 48 2 11 1 1 7 3 1 9 1 8 9 7 2 4 4 4 5 0 3 16 4 4 1 3 3 2 2 10 6 7 15 2 3 8 0 5 4 6 10 5 0 3 5 2 5 0 5 3 3 3 1 1 6 9 2 1 5 41 14 11 11 5 4 4 1 5 6 4 1 0 4 2 2 2 4 18 14 3 5 6 5 3 11 7 4 0 3 3 2 2
Last week 7 12 10 41 26 10 47 5 47 104 171 15 32 18 36 14 35 33 278 37 76 16 9 112 47 38 30 403 12 20 80 15 31 93 6 23 7 17 18 18 44 56 50 42 5 56 9 17 65 59 22 18 23 52 59 20 12 11 41 26 10 48 37 5 88 78 12 20 55 21 31 27 25 50 4 232 42 6 65 96 13 6 12 19 19 25 127 31 33 8 15 2 7 46 7 6 20 12 13 42 6 5 16 37 29 14 7 17 11 37 26 11 7 38 13 26 15 29 85 15 25 4 24 36 23 15 34 111 36 13 69 31 24 55 17 33 36 40 32 152 46 274 23 42 30 352 214 4 27 10 13 60 177 17 3 7 262 67 38 31 22 40 16 19 17 47 91 10 15 24 97 23 110 3 38 61 15 15 110 3 26 62 24 32 86 66 16 89 47 24 120 39 21 119 20 33 47 32 81 28 11 14 7 34 10 104 13 11 0 179 33 15 6 16 12 15 87 116 19 13 40 39 17 294 18 87 43 13 25 29 16 55 5 49 50 14 17 18 23 33 18 8 13 99 28 29 15 26 35 16 17 26 89 49 105 16 6 64 8 20 23 45 67 19 5 15 30 18 31 5 17 21 29 7 15 5 73 66 8 6 26 228 97 50 67 58 15 28 8 14 46 22 19 5 20 15 14 10 63 121 59 18 35 33 29 23 62 18 15 9 45 12 10 22
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1910-1110-2410-17 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --11-02 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-2511-02 --10-31 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-29 --10-0709-2706-14 -- -- -- --09-28 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-25 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- --11-0310-26 --10-1310-13 --10-18 --10-12 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-0111-01 --09-30 -- --09-2911-01 -- -- -- -- --10-28 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-06 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-20 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-05 -- -- -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 --11-03 --10-1311-0310-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 62 29 77 72 95 164 98 54 234 136 55 71 57 70 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 68 293 144 20 165 28 57 31 32 55 75 41 129 71 25 71 31 56 65 42 52 59 152 86 540 75 529 611 61 73 391 51 58 68 612 258 82 102 95 43 41 42 196 63 43 67 237 231 84 183 438 113 66 24 71 76 118 182 125 31 127 177 46 90 48 138 134 58 91 320 136 38 31 65 41 131
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 9 54 28 19 61 34 27 21 19 33 55 9 32 16 55 18 31 13 105 70 9 53 7 19 15 8 17 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 23 18 11 14 21 20 23 154 15 58 135 19 34 54 14 16 7 70 57 17 40 25 13 12 21 62 22 19 14 48 91 19 25 119 34 22 11 28 24 29 46 48 9 58 33 15 31 7 27 34 21 19 77 21 9 11 18 13 16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-04-13 to 2021-04-19

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-04-12 2878 5037 8557 8209 9593 9745 11636 23484 30283 19136 4253 17600 8164 8074 8186 13410 22294 100717 7017 18050 9174 5925 25870 4890 25190 7033 48800 10781 6714 28367 6875 14442 30619 5993 24273 6219 9089 7103 9876 17155 14389 5639 14008 10062 8198 8332 15862 12418 12639 3735 9029 20752 21644 6106 4860 4232 7841 11293 3131 5763 14076 37757 23589 2785 7905 30771 8488 7470 10317 4222 20013 23233 11780 7815 26653 30906 3003 4165 4835 8165 6355 4774 17997 9581 8759 6611 5792 7303 29651 12397 5212 7001 4946 5223 5483 8049 4770 13709 8140 6338 3834 10228 5474 22288 7314 11907 4179 12909 5068 20718 7920 7606 20659 4303 8840 7019 26816 6906 8186 4951 26345 6104 5646 24678 7787 7812 7588 6764 14928 8915 5990 7550 19628 12189 33548 17321 24116 9369 61997 36257 21579 6557 6844 48317 20350 12649 2769 52659 8167 26048 2678 3430 16150 2217 3264 6786 12406 19987 4374 6129 7238 23393 8387 35386 5968 8607 6338 5496 9252 9995 12426 4326 6048 18031 17388 7368 30519 8463 4936 22927 9413 9623 15437 9089 14204 13756 10824 32742 9273 6183 9211 4573 10781 2609 21167 6405 6075 21103 6519 5484 6821 7699 1644 1869 23074 33977 5526 5319 23801 4902 6852 43121 14920 15329 14585 5932 4782 5753 7284 15115 5269 7467 4464 5496 4665 5844 8077 5413 8630 11293 14620 14733 22320 7384 7801 17004 8510 5304 5989 20827 15808 19884 5152 3723 22001 5451 15855 13347 11332 18255 5377 2964 10888 9921 5338 11394 6247 17842 7998 4204 28685 16407 5652 4840 5111 25341 25602 24823 22018 17761 7122 7880 5784 7875 4915 8184 6317 8899 4638 4062 6417 14043 28932 17085 4907 8409 24200 6823 8158 24674 6049 5298 6405 10631 6622 5536 12168
2021-04-13 2879 5040 8570 8211 9606 9754 11640 23490 30290 19180 4255 17600 8168 8085 8191 13420 22300 100700 7022 18070 9177 5928 25900 4902 25210 7038 48870 10780 6716 28370 6877 14450 30640 5993 24280 6220 9092 7107 9888 17180 14410 5644 14010 10060 8200 8334 15870 12430 12640 3737 9033 20770 21650 6109 4868 4239 7849 11300 3134 5781 14090 37770 23600 2788 7906 30780 8492 7484 10320 4226 20020 23260 11800 7816 26670 30910 3006 4166 4837 8167 6360 4780 18020 9590 8764 6621 5796 7305 29660 12400 5214 7006 4948 5223 5497 8052 4772 13720 8146 6341 3838 10230 5474 22300 7317 11910 4181 12920 5070 20730 7922 7606 20680 4306 8847 7024 26820 6910 8190 4955 26370 6111 5648 24690 7794 7824 7601 6767 14930 8922 5997 7558 19680 12200 33570 17330 24130 9379 62060 36310 21580 6571 6846 48340 20380 12650 2771 52700 8189 26050 2682 3430 16160 2219 3267 6788 12420 20000 4376 6132 7243 23410 8396 35400 5974 8616 6341 5499 9273 10000 12440 4338 6049 18060 17390 7373 30530 8469 4940 22940 9432 9625 15470 9101 14220 13760 10830 32760 9278 6186 9217 4575 10790 2611 21220 6410 6077 21140 6530 5486 6823 7701 1646 1869 23080 34000 5531 5328 23820 4909 6854 43210 14920 15350 14610 5938 4784 5757 7284 15130 5292 7471 4466 5502 4668 5849 8084 5415 8638 11290 14650 14740 22320 7387 7804 17020 8512 5311 5993 20850 15810 19900 5163 3724 22020 5452 15860 13350 11330 18260 5393 2966 10890 9924 5343 11400 6251 17850 8000 4206 28700 16440 5660 4841 5115 25400 25610 24830 22030 17770 7126 7885 5787 7881 4922 8191 6325 8900 4642 4065 6421 14050 28950 17110 4908 8411 24210 6828 8162 24720 6052 5302 6408 10640 6625 5548 12170
2021-04-14 2881 5043 8583 8222 9611 9761 11650 23500 30310 19220 4258 17610 8182 8097 8195 13430 22330 100800 7029 18080 9184 5932 25930 4917 25220 7045 48950 10790 6721 28380 6877 14450 30650 5995 24290 6224 9095 7110 9898 17210 14420 5644 14020 10060 8203 8339 15880 12460 12650 3738 9039 20790 21650 6117 4873 4244 7864 11310 3139 5794 14110 37800 23610 2794 7907 30790 8504 7495 10340 4229 20030 23290 11820 7822 26680 30920 3013 4175 4841 8171 6379 4790 18040 9597 8774 6627 5811 7313 29690 12410 5223 7017 4952 5225 5512 8054 4773 13750 8161 6344 3841 10230 5475 22310 7318 11920 4186 12930 5072 20730 7924 7610 20700 4315 8868 7031 26840 6920 8193 4963 26400 6135 5653 24710 7803 7832 7615 6771 14950 8933 6009 7565 19730 12210 33620 17340 24150 9386 62120 36340 21590 6580 6855 48360 20410 12660 2775 52740 8208 26060 2688 3433 16170 2222 3269 6792 12430 20020 4378 6134 7248 23440 8405 35410 5981 8623 6353 5510 9306 10010 12460 4368 6051 18090 17410 7384 30540 8478 4947 22960 9443 9629 15500 9111 14230 13770 10840 32780 9287 6193 9224 4583 10800 2613 21260 6414 6083 21190 6553 5489 6830 7704 1650 1869 23090 34040 5543 5335 23830 4920 6858 43280 14930 15370 14630 5945 4785 5763 7287 15150 5312 7482 4466 5505 4671 5865 8098 5419 8643 11300 14680 14760 22340 7398 7806 17030 8513 5316 5997 20860 15820 19940 5172 3728 22030 5457 15870 13350 11340 18280 5405 2966 10900 9933 5349 11410 6256 17850 8007 4210 28710 16460 5664 4844 5123 25450 25620 24830 22050 17780 7137 7888 5790 7884 4928 8198 6332 8902 4659 4078 6437 14060 28970 17130 4909 8417 24230 6834 8174 24740 6057 5305 6422 10640 6627 5556 12180
2021-04-15 2883 5046 8589 8229 9618 9764 11660 23500 30330 19260 4260 17610 8191 8106 8200 13440 22350 100800 7035 18090 9189 5936 25960 4924 25230 7053 49020 10790 6725 28400 6879 14460 30670 5996 24310 6226 9098 7117 9904 17220 14440 5646 14030 10070 8205 8342 15890 12470 12650 3740 9043 20800 21660 6123 4877 4248 7876 11310 3142 5805 14120 37820 23620 2798 7908 30800 8513 7503 10340 4233 20040 23330 11830 7826 26690 30920 3018 4181 4845 8174 6391 4798 18060 9606 8781 6632 5821 7317 29700 12410 5229 7024 4955 5229 5522 8057 4775 13770 8172 6346 3845 10230 5476 22320 7320 11920 4189 12940 5074 20730 7926 7614 20720 4321 8882 7037 26850 6928 8197 4971 26420 6151 5656 24730 7810 7839 7626 6775 14960 8942 6019 7571 19760 12220 33660 17360 24160 9395 62170 36380 21590 6586 6860 48370 20440 12670 2776 52790 8222 26060 2693 3435 16180 2224 3272 6794 12440 20030 4380 6138 7254 23460 8411 35430 5986 8631 6360 5518 9333 10020 12470 4389 6053 18110 17410 7392 30550 8484 4952 22980 9456 9632 15520 9119 14240 13780 10850 32800 9294 6198 9228 4588 10810 2615 21290 6418 6087 21230 6570 5491 6835 7706 1653 1870 23100 34060 5552 5336 23850 4929 6860 43330 14930 15380 14640 5949 4786 5769 7289 15160 5323 7490 4466 5509 4675 5876 8108 5422 8646 11300 14700 14770 22350 7406 7809 17040 8516 5320 6000 20880 15820 19970 5179 3731 22050 5460 15880 13350 11350 18290 5412 2967 10910 9939 5354 11410 6261 17860 8012 4213 28730 16480 5667 4846 5129 25490 25630 24830 22070 17790 7145 7892 5793 7889 4934 8201 6338 8908 4669 4086 6447 14070 28980 17140 4913 8421 24230 6839 8182 24760 6062 5307 6431 10650 6629 5561 12180
2021-04-16 2885 5049 8596 8231 9623 9766 11670 23510 30340 19280 4262 17610 8198 8109 8202 13440 22360 100800 7040 18110 9193 5939 25970 4934 25240 7057 49100 10790 6727 28410 6880 14460 30690 5996 24310 6228 9100 7121 9909 17230 14450 5649 14030 10080 8207 8345 15900 12490 12660 3742 9047 20810 21660 6128 4880 4251 7885 11320 3146 5815 14130 37830 23640 2802 7909 30810 8519 7510 10350 4236 20040 23370 11840 7828 26700 30930 3023 4184 4846 8176 6400 4805 18080 9611 8788 6634 5828 7321 29720 12410 5233 7030 4958 5230 5532 8060 4776 13780 8181 6349 3847 10240 5477 22330 7322 11920 4192 12950 5076 20740 7928 7618 20740 4326 8892 7042 26860 6933 8198 4979 26450 6164 5659 24740 7816 7841 7636 6778 14960 8949 6027 7578 19780 12220 33700 17360 24180 9399 62210 36420 21600 6591 6864 48380 20470 12670 2777 52840 8232 26070 2698 3438 16190 2226 3274 6797 12450 20050 4382 6141 7259 23480 8415 35450 5990 8639 6365 5523 9356 10030 12490 4406 6055 18120 17430 7398 30570 8491 4957 23000 9464 9635 15540 9121 14240 13790 10860 32810 9300 6203 9229 4591 10820 2617 21320 6420 6090 21260 6584 5493 6838 7709 1656 1871 23120 34080 5559 5338 23850 4937 6863 43380 14930 15400 14660 5950 4788 5773 7293 15170 5332 7495 4467 5513 4678 5884 8116 5427 8648 11300 14720 14780 22350 7411 7811 17050 8519 5325 6004 20890 15830 19990 5182 3733 22060 5462 15890 13360 11350 18300 5415 2968 10910 9943 5359 11420 6265 17860 8015 4216 28740 16500 5669 4848 5133 25540 25630 24830 22080 17800 7151 7897 5794 7891 4941 8205 6343 8908 4677 4092 6454 14080 28990 17160 4915 8424 24240 6843 8188 24780 6065 5309 6437 10650 6631 5565 12180
2021-04-17 2886 5052 8603 8234 9626 9769 11670 23510 30360 19310 4264 17620 8204 8116 8204 13450 22380 100800 7045 18130 9197 5941 25980 4939 25250 7061 49170 10790 6729 28420 6881 14470 30700 5999 24320 6230 9103 7127 9917 17240 14470 5653 14040 10090 8209 8348 15910 12500 12660 3743 9049 20820 21660 6132 4882 4252 7895 11320 3149 5829 14130 37850 23660 2805 7910 30820 8525 7515 10360 4240 20050 23410 11860 7831 26710 30930 3027 4187 4848 8179 6408 4812 18100 9617 8794 6637 5834 7324 29730 12420 5236 7036 4960 5230 5543 8062 4778 13800 8188 6349 3848 10240 5478 22340 7324 11930 4194 12950 5078 20740 7930 7621 20750 4330 8902 7047 26870 6938 8202 4981 26470 6175 5661 24750 7819 7845 7643 6781 14970 8957 6035 7583 19810 12230 33730 17370 24190 9403 62250 36460 21600 6593 6867 48390 20500 12670 2779 52870 8242 26070 2702 3440 16200 2228 3277 6799 12450 20060 4383 6143 7266 23500 8418 35460 5995 8647 6370 5528 9378 10030 12500 4421 6058 18130 17430 7404 30580 8498 4962 23010 9468 9637 15560 9128 14250 13790 10860 32830 9305 6206 9232 4594 10820 2618 21340 6423 6093 21270 6597 5495 6841 7711 1658 1873 23120 34100 5566 5340 23860 4944 6865 43420 14930 15410 14660 5952 4790 5776 7298 15180 5339 7500 4468 5515 4680 5891 8125 5434 8652 11300 14730 14780 22360 7416 7814 17050 8521 5328 6007 20900 15830 20010 5187 3735 22060 5464 15890 13360 11360 18310 5418 2969 10910 9948 5364 11420 6269 17870 8018 4219 28750 16510 5671 4849 5138 25590 25640 24840 22090 17800 7157 7901 5795 7893 4947 8211 6346 8911 4684 4097 6460 14090 29000 17160 4917 8427 24240 6848 8194 24790 6068 5312 6443 10660 6633 5568 12180
2021-04-18 2887 5054 8607 8237 9631 9770 11680 23510 30370 19330 4266 17620 8210 8124 8207 13450 22390 100900 7050 18130 9200 5944 26000 4943 25250 7063 49210 10790 6731 28420 6883 14470 30710 6001 24330 6231 9105 7129 9918 17250 14480 5657 14050 10090 8211 8350 15920 12520 12670 3745 9052 20830 21670 6136 4883 4253 7903 11330 3152 5833 14140 37870 23670 2808 7911 30830 8531 7522 10360 4243 20060 23440 11860 7832 26720 30930 3030 4189 4849 8181 6414 4818 18120 9622 8800 6638 5839 7326 29740 12420 5239 7041 4962 5230 5551 8064 4780 13810 8195 6351 3850 10240 5481 22340 7327 11930 4196 12960 5080 20750 7932 7627 20760 4334 8910 7052 26870 6942 8206 4983 26490 6185 5664 24760 7824 7850 7647 6784 14980 8964 6042 7585 19840 12240 33750 17380 24200 9405 62260 36490 21600 6594 6869 48400 20530 12670 2780 52890 8251 26070 2706 3443 16200 2230 3279 6802 12460 20080 4385 6147 7266 23510 8421 35470 6003 8655 6374 5531 9399 10030 12510 4434 6060 18140 17440 7409 30590 8506 4966 23020 9473 9639 15570 9128 14250 13800 10870 32840 9309 6210 9234 4597 10830 2620 21370 6424 6096 21290 6608 5497 6843 7713 1661 1875 23130 34110 5571 5340 23860 4951 6867 43460 14930 15420 14670 5955 4793 5783 7298 15180 5342 7504 4470 5519 4683 5897 8132 5434 8654 11310 14740 14790 22360 7420 7818 17050 8524 5329 6010 20910 15840 20030 5192 3736 22070 5466 15900 13360 11360 18320 5422 2971 10920 9951 5369 11430 6273 17870 8021 4221 28760 16520 5672 4850 5142 25610 25640 24840 22100 17810 7162 7905 5795 7893 4954 8217 6348 8913 4689 4101 6465 14090 29020 17170 4920 8429 24250 6853 8199 24800 6071 5313 6447 10670 6636 5570 12190
2021-04-19 2889 5056 8608 8243 9639 9774 11680 23520 30390 19350 4268 17630 8214 8130 8209 13460 22400 100900 7055 18140 9204 5946 26020 4951 25260 7067 49270 10790 6732 28440 6884 14480 30730 6001 24330 6233 9108 7129 9922 17250 14490 5662 14050 10100 8212 8352 15930 12530 12670 3747 9056 20840 21670 6139 4886 4254 7911 11330 3154 5839 14150 37880 23680 2811 7912 30830 8535 7527 10370 4247 20060 23480 11870 7834 26740 30950 3033 4191 4851 8183 6419 4823 18140 9624 8805 6640 5843 7329 29750 12420 5242 7045 4964 5230 5557 8066 4783 13820 8201 6354 3851 10240 5484 22350 7329 11930 4197 12960 5082 20750 7934 7631 20760 4337 8917 7056 26880 6946 8208 4988 26510 6193 5666 24780 7831 7854 7657 6787 14980 8970 6049 7592 19860 12240 33790 17390 24210 9410 62320 36520 21610 6595 6872 48410 20560 12680 2781 52940 8265 26080 2711 3446 16210 2232 3282 6804 12470 20090 4386 6149 7266 23530 8427 35490 6004 8663 6378 5534 9419 10030 12520 4447 6063 18150 17450 7413 30600 8515 4970 23040 9479 9641 15590 9132 14260 13800 10870 32850 9313 6213 9237 4599 10830 2621 21380 6425 6098 21330 6619 5499 6845 7715 1663 1878 23140 34120 5576 5342 23870 4957 6870 43510 14930 15430 14670 5956 4795 5786 7299 15190 5352 7507 4471 5521 4686 5903 8139 5439 8656 11310 14760 14800 22370 7423 7821 17060 8526 5331 6013 20920 15850 20050 5195 3738 22080 5467 15900 13370 11370 18330 5426 2973 10920 9954 5374 11430 6276 17870 8023 4224 28770 16530 5674 4851 5146 25640 25650 24840 22110 17820 7166 7910 5796 7897 4961 8220 6349 8917 4694 4104 6469 14100 29040 17180 4923 8431 24260 6857 8203 24810 6074 5316 6451 10670 6638 5573 12190

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-04-13 to 2021-04-19

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-04-12 2878 5037 8557 8209 9593 9745 11636 23484 30283 19136 4253 17600 8164 8074 8186 13410 22294 100717 7017 18050 9174 5925 25870 4890 25190 7033 48800 10781 6714 28367 6875 14442 30619 5993 24273 6219 9089 7103 9876 17155 14389 5639 14008 10062 8198 8332 15862 12418 12639 3735 9029 20752 21644 6106 4860 4232 7841 11293 3131 5763 14076 37757 23589 2785 7905 30771 8488 7470 10317 4222 20013 23233 11780 7815 26653 30906 3003 4165 4835 8165 6355 4774 17997 9581 8759 6611 5792 7303 29651 12397 5212 7001 4946 5223 5483 8049 4770 13709 8140 6338 3834 10228 5474 22288 7314 11907 4179 12909 5068 20718 7920 7606 20659 4303 8840 7019 26816 6906 8186 4951 26345 6104 5646 24678 7787 7812 7588 6764 14928 8915 5990 7550 19628 12189 33548 17321 24116 9369 61997 36257 21579 6557 6844 48317 20350 12649 2769 52659 8167 26048 2678 3430 16150 2217 3264 6786 12406 19987 4374 6129 7238 23393 8387 35386 5968 8607 6338 5496 9252 9995 12426 4326 6048 18031 17388 7368 30519 8463 4936 22927 9413 9623 15437 9089 14204 13756 10824 32742 9273 6183 9211 4573 10781 2609 21167 6405 6075 21103 6519 5484 6821 7699 1644 1869 23074 33977 5526 5319 23801 4902 6852 43121 14920 15329 14585 5932 4782 5753 7284 15115 5269 7467 4464 5496 4665 5844 8077 5413 8630 11293 14620 14733 22320 7384 7801 17004 8510 5304 5989 20827 15808 19884 5152 3723 22001 5451 15855 13347 11332 18255 5377 2964 10888 9921 5338 11394 6247 17842 7998 4204 28685 16407 5652 4840 5111 25341 25602 24823 22018 17761 7122 7880 5784 7875 4915 8184 6317 8899 4638 4062 6417 14043 28932 17085 4907 8409 24200 6823 8158 24674 6049 5298 6405 10631 6622 5536 12168
2021-04-13 2879 5039 8558 8215 9599 9747 11640 23490 30300 19160 4255 17600 8170 8081 8187 13420 22300 100800 7023 18060 9175 5927 25890 4896 25200 7037 48860 10780 6716 28380 6877 14450 30630 5992 24280 6220 9091 7105 9879 17170 14400 5645 14010 10070 8200 8333 15870 12430 12640 3738 9032 20760 21650 6109 4863 4234 7850 11300 3133 5773 14080 37770 23600 2787 7906 30780 8492 7474 10320 4226 20020 23260 11790 7816 26670 30920 3006 4166 4836 8167 6362 4778 18010 9585 8763 6612 5794 7305 29660 12400 5214 7004 4948 5224 5489 8050 4772 13720 8142 6340 3835 10230 5476 22290 7319 11910 4181 12920 5070 20720 7922 7609 20670 4306 8846 7023 26820 6909 8189 4955 26360 6110 5647 24690 7792 7816 7596 6766 14930 8923 5996 7555 19650 12200 33580 17320 24120 9374 62040 36300 21580 6559 6847 48330 20380 12650 2770 52700 8178 26050 2682 3433 16160 2219 3267 6788 12410 20000 4375 6131 7239 23410 8391 35410 5974 8618 6340 5499 9267 10000 12440 4329 6051 18050 17400 7370 30530 8472 4940 22940 9422 9625 15460 9093 14210 13760 10830 32760 9277 6185 9212 4575 10790 2611 21180 6407 6076 21130 6525 5485 6823 7701 1646 1871 23090 33980 5531 5322 23810 4909 6854 43180 14920 15340 14590 5934 4786 5757 7284 15120 5279 7480 4467 5499 4669 5847 8083 5413 8632 11300 14640 14740 22330 7386 7805 17010 8512 5307 5994 20840 15810 19900 5154 3725 22010 5452 15860 13350 11340 18260 5381 2966 10900 9923 5343 11400 6250 17850 7999 4205 28690 16420 5654 4841 5115 25370 25610 24830 22030 17770 7125 7885 5786 7878 4923 8187 6320 8901 4642 4065 6419 14050 28940 17100 4909 8414 24210 6827 8163 24690 6053 5302 6407 10640 6624 5539 12170
2021-04-14 2880 5041 8562 8225 9600 9751 11650 23500 30310 19200 4257 17610 8177 8085 8189 13420 22320 100800 7030 18070 9178 5931 25910 4905 25210 7042 48910 10790 6720 28380 6879 14450 30640 5995 24290 6221 9094 7107 9885 17180 14400 5647 14020 10070 8202 8336 15880 12430 12650 3741 9035 20770 21660 6113 4866 4238 7856 11300 3136 5788 14090 37780 23610 2791 7909 30790 8498 7481 10330 4229 20030 23280 11800 7818 26680 30940 3010 4169 4839 8170 6370 4782 18020 9588 8768 6615 5800 7309 29670 12400 5217 7010 4950 5226 5498 8051 4773 13720 8149 6343 3837 10230 5476 22300 7321 11920 4183 12920 5071 20730 7924 7611 20670 4310 8855 7025 26830 6914 8191 4961 26380 6122 5651 24700 7796 7821 7605 6770 14940 8932 6004 7561 19680 12200 33630 17330 24130 9376 62120 36340 21580 6563 6849 48350 20400 12650 2772 52740 8194 26060 2686 3435 16160 2221 3269 6790 12420 20020 4377 6133 7244 23430 8395 35420 5981 8624 6344 5503 9282 10010 12450 4336 6054 18070 17400 7373 30550 8479 4944 22960 9431 9627 15490 9099 14220 13770 10840 32770 9280 6187 9217 4578 10800 2613 21200 6409 6079 21160 6533 5487 6825 7704 1649 1872 23100 34000 5537 5325 23820 4915 6857 43230 14920 15360 14600 5937 4788 5762 7288 15130 5291 7495 4468 5501 4672 5856 8089 5417 8634 11300 14660 14750 22330 7391 7808 17020 8513 5310 5997 20860 15820 19910 5159 3728 22020 5454 15870 13360 11350 18270 5387 2967 10900 9925 5349 11400 6255 17850 8002 4207 28700 16430 5656 4842 5120 25410 25630 24840 22040 17770 7128 7889 5788 7880 4930 8190 6324 8902 4648 4070 6425 14060 28960 17110 4910 8421 24220 6831 8170 24700 6056 5304 6412 10640 6625 5542 12170
2021-04-15 2882 5043 8563 8231 9603 9752 11660 23510 30330 19220 4258 17610 8184 8088 8193 13430 22330 100800 7036 18080 9181 5933 25930 4911 25220 7047 48960 10790 6721 28390 6881 14450 30660 5998 24290 6223 9096 7111 9889 17190 14410 5650 14020 10080 8203 8338 15880 12440 12650 3742 9037 20780 21670 6116 4869 4240 7861 11300 3138 5801 14100 37790 23620 2794 7912 30790 8503 7486 10330 4233 20030 23310 11800 7820 26690 30950 3014 4171 4841 8172 6376 4786 18030 9593 8773 6617 5804 7311 29670 12400 5219 7014 4952 5228 5503 8051 4774 13730 8155 6345 3839 10230 5477 22310 7322 11920 4185 12930 5072 20730 7926 7613 20680 4313 8864 7027 26840 6918 8193 4967 26400 6132 5652 24710 7798 7826 7611 6773 14950 8938 6011 7566 19690 12210 33670 17330 24140 9381 62190 36370 21590 6566 6852 48360 20420 12660 2772 52780 8208 26070 2690 3437 16170 2223 3272 6791 12430 20030 4379 6136 7249 23450 8398 35440 5985 8631 6347 5507 9296 10010 12460 4341 6057 18080 17410 7375 30560 8484 4948 22980 9442 9630 15500 9105 14220 13780 10840 32780 9282 6189 9219 4581 10800 2614 21230 6410 6081 21190 6540 5488 6828 7707 1652 1872 23110 34010 5541 5327 23830 4921 6859 43280 14930 15370 14610 5940 4790 5767 7291 15140 5300 7505 4469 5505 4674 5863 8095 5420 8635 11300 14670 14760 22340 7394 7811 17030 8514 5313 6000 20880 15830 19930 5163 3730 22030 5456 15870 13360 11360 18280 5391 2968 10910 9927 5355 11400 6259 17860 8004 4210 28710 16440 5658 4842 5123 25440 25650 24850 22050 17780 7131 7893 5790 7882 4938 8192 6328 8905 4652 4073 6427 14070 28960 17120 4911 8427 24220 6834 8175 24710 6058 5306 6415 10640 6625 5544 12180
2021-04-16 2883 5045 8565 8234 9606 9754 11660 23520 30340 19250 4259 17610 8189 8089 8195 13430 22330 100900 7041 18090 9183 5935 25940 4919 25220 7052 49020 10790 6722 28400 6882 14450 30670 5998 24300 6223 9099 7113 9893 17200 14410 5654 14030 10080 8204 8340 15890 12450 12650 3743 9039 20780 21680 6120 4871 4242 7866 11310 3140 5811 14100 37800 23640 2797 7913 30800 8507 7492 10340 4236 20040 23330 11810 7822 26690 30960 3018 4173 4842 8174 6381 4791 18040 9596 8778 6618 5806 7313 29680 12400 5221 7016 4954 5230 5509 8052 4776 13740 8159 6347 3841 10240 5478 22310 7324 11920 4187 12930 5073 20730 7928 7614 20690 4316 8871 7029 26850 6922 8195 4973 26420 6140 5653 24720 7801 7829 7618 6777 14950 8945 6018 7572 19710 12220 33710 17340 24150 9383 62250 36410 21590 6569 6853 48360 20440 12660 2773 52810 8220 26070 2694 3439 16180 2224 3274 6793 12440 20040 4381 6138 7253 23470 8400 35450 5989 8638 6350 5510 9311 10010 12470 4345 6059 18100 17420 7376 30570 8489 4952 22990 9448 9632 15510 9107 14230 13780 10850 32800 9286 6191 9220 4583 10800 2615 21240 6411 6082 21220 6546 5489 6829 7708 1653 1873 23120 34020 5545 5328 23840 4926 6861 43330 14930 15380 14620 5941 4792 5770 7294 15140 5308 7514 4470 5509 4677 5869 8100 5423 8636 11310 14690 14770 22340 7396 7814 17030 8515 5317 6002 20890 15840 19940 5165 3731 22040 5457 15880 13370 11370 18290 5393 2969 10910 9929 5360 11410 6263 17860 8006 4211 28720 16440 5658 4843 5125 25470 25670 24860 22060 17790 7134 7897 5792 7883 4945 8194 6333 8905 4656 4076 6429 14080 28970 17130 4912 8433 24230 6836 8179 24720 6060 5307 6418 10650 6626 5547 12180
2021-04-17 2884 5047 8568 8236 9608 9757 11670 23530 30350 19280 4259 17610 8194 8093 8197 13440 22340 100900 7047 18110 9186 5936 25950 4924 25230 7056 49060 10790 6724 28410 6884 14460 30680 6002 24300 6224 9101 7117 9900 17200 14420 5657 14030 10090 8205 8341 15890 12460 12650 3745 9040 20790 21690 6123 4874 4244 7872 11310 3142 5822 14110 37820 23650 2800 7915 30810 8511 7498 10340 4239 20050 23360 11810 7823 26700 30970 3021 4174 4844 8175 6386 4794 18050 9600 8782 6621 5811 7316 29690 12410 5222 7019 4956 5231 5514 8053 4777 13740 8162 6349 3843 10240 5479 22310 7326 11920 4188 12940 5074 20730 7930 7616 20700 4319 8877 7031 26850 6926 8198 4977 26430 6147 5655 24730 7802 7832 7623 6780 14960 8951 6024 7576 19730 12220 33740 17340 24150 9385 62300 36440 21590 6571 6855 48370 20460 12660 2775 52840 8231 26080 2698 3442 16180 2226 3276 6795 12440 20050 4382 6141 7255 23480 8403 35460 5993 8645 6353 5512 9325 10010 12480 4350 6060 18110 17420 7378 30580 8495 4956 23010 9454 9634 15520 9114 14230 13790 10850 32810 9291 6193 9222 4585 10810 2617 21250 6412 6084 21230 6552 5490 6831 7710 1656 1875 23120 34030 5548 5331 23840 4931 6863 43370 14930 15390 14620 5943 4794 5773 7298 15150 5316 7522 4471 5513 4680 5874 8105 5428 8637 11310 14710 14770 22340 7398 7817 17030 8517 5320 6003 20900 15840 19950 5168 3732 22050 5459 15880 13370 11370 18300 5396 2970 10910 9930 5364 11410 6267 17860 8008 4212 28720 16450 5660 4843 5127 25500 25680 24860 22080 17790 7136 7901 5793 7885 4951 8199 6335 8907 4659 4079 6433 14090 28980 17130 4913 8438 24230 6839 8183 24730 6062 5310 6422 10650 6627 5550 12180
2021-04-18 2886 5049 8570 8238 9612 9759 11670 23540 30360 19300 4261 17620 8199 8096 8199 13440 22350 100900 7053 18120 9189 5939 25970 4930 25240 7059 49100 10790 6725 28420 6885 14460 30690 6004 24310 6225 9103 7120 9904 17210 14430 5661 14030 10090 8206 8343 15900 12460 12650 3746 9042 20790 21700 6127 4876 4245 7878 11310 3144 5834 14120 37830 23660 2803 7918 30820 8515 7504 10350 4241 20050 23390 11820 7824 26700 30980 3024 4175 4845 8177 6390 4797 18060 9604 8788 6623 5816 7317 29690 12410 5224 7022 4958 5233 5521 8054 4778 13750 8165 6350 3845 10240 5481 22320 7328 11920 4189 12940 5075 20740 7932 7619 20700 4322 8883 7033 26860 6929 8200 4980 26450 6155 5657 24740 7805 7838 7627 6783 14960 8957 6031 7579 19750 12230 33770 17350 24160 9387 62350 36470 21590 6574 6856 48380 20480 12670 2777 52870 8244 26080 2702 3443 16190 2228 3278 6797 12450 20070 4384 6144 7256 23500 8405 35480 5997 8652 6356 5515 9339 10020 12500 4354 6065 18120 17430 7380 30590 8501 4960 23030 9461 9636 15530 9118 14240 13790 10860 32820 9294 6194 9225 4587 10810 2618 21270 6414 6086 21260 6558 5491 6832 7712 1657 1876 23130 34040 5551 5333 23850 4936 6865 43410 14930 15400 14630 5945 4797 5778 7299 15160 5323 7530 4473 5517 4683 5879 8110 5432 8639 11310 14720 14780 22350 7400 7820 17040 8519 5322 6005 20920 15850 19960 5172 3733 22060 5460 15880 13380 11380 18310 5402 2971 10920 9931 5369 11410 6270 17860 8011 4214 28730 16460 5662 4844 5129 25530 25700 24870 22080 17800 7138 7905 5794 7886 4958 8204 6337 8908 4662 4081 6436 14100 28990 17150 4914 8443 24240 6842 8186 24740 6063 5311 6425 10660 6628 5554 12180
2021-04-19 2887 5051 8571 8242 9616 9762 11680 23540 30380 19330 4261 17620 8203 8099 8205 13450 22360 101000 7058 18130 9191 5942 25990 4938 25240 7063 49150 10790 6726 28430 6887 14460 30700 6004 24310 6226 9106 7121 9909 17220 14440 5664 14040 10090 8207 8344 15900 12470 12660 3748 9044 20800 21710 6130 4879 4247 7882 11310 3147 5843 14130 37840 23670 2805 7920 30820 8518 7512 10350 4244 20050 23410 11820 7825 26710 31000 3028 4176 4846 8178 6394 4799 18080 9606 8792 6625 5821 7319 29700 12410 5225 7023 4960 5235 5526 8055 4779 13760 8169 6353 3847 10240 5482 22320 7329 11930 4191 12950 5076 20740 7933 7620 20710 4324 8892 7034 26860 6931 8202 4985 26460 6162 5658 24750 7808 7843 7633 6786 14970 8963 6037 7585 19770 12240 33810 17350 24160 9390 62420 36500 21600 6576 6857 48390 20500 12670 2778 52910 8261 26080 2706 3445 16190 2229 3280 6798 12460 20080 4386 6146 7258 23510 8409 35490 6000 8659 6359 5517 9354 10020 12510 4358 6067 18130 17440 7382 30600 8504 4964 23040 9470 9638 15540 9123 14240 13800 10860 32830 9298 6196 9229 4588 10820 2619 21290 6415 6087 21280 6564 5492 6833 7714 1659 1877 23140 34050 5555 5337 23860 4942 6867 43460 14940 15410 14640 5948 4799 5780 7300 15170 5333 7537 4474 5520 4685 5884 8115 5437 8641 11310 14740 14790 22350 7402 7823 17050 8520 5324 6007 20930 15860 19970 5178 3735 22060 5461 15890 13380 11390 18320 5406 2972 10920 9932 5374 11410 6274 17870 8014 4215 28740 16470 5664 4844 5131 25550 25720 24870 22090 17810 7140 7909 5796 7887 4965 8207 6340 8910 4665 4084 6440 14100 29000 17160 4915 8448 24240 6844 8189 24750 6065 5312 6427 10660 6629 5557 12190

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.