COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-04-14 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-04-14

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-04-14

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-3012-2712-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3012-2712-2212-2812-2712-272021-01-032021-01-072021-01-0111-1512-2812-2210-2912-2212-2712-2712-1312-2712-2712-2512-2112-2712-2212-3012-3012-2711-0312-2112-2712-2512-0812-2712-2112-212021-01-0412-2212-2912-2612-2212-212021-01-0412-2112-212021-01-0212-2612-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-3012-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-212021-01-022021-03-1010-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-2412-2912-2412-2111-0212-2610-3112-2712-2912-2812-2112-2512-2212-2612-1412-232021-01-0612-2912-2312-2812-1812-252021-01-0412-2712-2612-2112-2712-2212-2112-2712-2112-2712-2212-2112-2112-2112-2212-2712-2712-2212-2212-1312-2712-1312-2812-2112-2912-2712-2812-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2212-2812-2812-2510-2812-2110-2712-2712-2912-3012-2712-2812-2112-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2312-212021-01-0412-302021-01-0312-2211-042021-01-0712-2112-2112-2112-2212-2512-2212-2612-2812-292021-01-0311-0412-2812-0812-2710-2512-2612-2111-0712-2112-2911-0312-212021-01-0412-2712-2112-3012-2912-2112-2712-2812-2712-2712-312021-01-0612-292021-01-0212-2912-212021-01-062021-01-0612-2212-2812-2112-2712-2812-1312-3112-1310-1712-3012-2712-2712-252021-01-2612-2812-2912-292021-01-0312-2112-3112-2912-2412-2712-3012-2512-2712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0912-2412-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-212021-01-0312-2510-3112-2212-2812-2111-0112-2112-2312-2612-2712-2112-0712-2512-2812-3012-2312-3012-3112-2712-2112-2612-2112-1912-1212-2312-3012-2112-2212-2812-2212-2612-2110-2812-2812-2712-1812-2512-2112-2212-2212-2112-2712-2512-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2712-2712-2912-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-3012-2112-3012-2612-30
Peak daily increment 61 88 97 180 109 172 178 78 478 586 191 59 326 131 108 107 232 424 1249 70 158 67 58 158 49 485 141 441 228 107 524 154 310 317 107 505 94 189 62 123 123 141 97 255 87 149 171 173 301 89 264 52 200 251 283 61 90 71 66 244 53 95 285 35 367 289 38 184 598 151 69 189 72 246 27 249 187 118 322 538 60 52 76 160 109 52 224 102 164 146 108 54 143 588 271 94 74 53 89 72 125 54 38 122 80 92 56 180 90 449 120 220 59 199 57 398 176 104 339 101 110 135 121 478 101 159 47 444 57 116 450 139 84 134 236 275 148 71 99 297 197 360 310 429 107 380 287 104 444 72 111 735 271 199 90 37 377 89 418 29 46 297 49 62 148 118 362 79 105 63 123 85 724 23 50 159 105 51 108 59 123 121 41 55 277 158 122 225 89 44 125 127 109 154 117 203 103 173 621 83 81 173 52 187 40 133 139 56 96 198 80 86 59 174 36 26 163 450 42 82 403 65 130 243 209 245 167 98 107 101 69 179 27 42 85 83 96 80 109 80 67 103 114 247 294 456 131 152 218 93 57 112 177 132 194 66 42 201 106 320 188 181 125 55 108 46 139 315 91 45 138 123 369 138 49 11 558 153 92 107 85 258 324 451 387 229 76 136 117 160 65 154 87 28 83 42 67 115 217 219 263 84 148 429 106 139 375 106 114 95 173 71 69 187
Days since peak 108 105 108 114 108 127 114 112 109 112 183 108 112 107 93 105 108 113 107 108 108 101 97 103 150 107 113 167 113 108 108 122 108 108 110 114 108 113 105 105 108 162 114 108 110 127 108 114 114 100 113 106 109 113 114 100 114 114 102 109 108 107 106 113 113 105 107 108 108 114 110 114 114 102 35 182 108 128 109 108 111 106 111 114 163 109 165 108 106 107 114 110 113 109 121 112 98 106 112 107 117 110 100 108 109 114 108 113 114 108 114 108 113 114 114 114 113 108 108 113 113 122 108 122 107 114 106 108 107 111 110 114 103 107 108 113 107 107 110 168 114 169 108 106 105 108 107 114 108 108 136 108 108 112 114 100 105 101 113 161 97 114 114 114 113 110 113 109 107 106 101 161 107 127 108 171 109 114 158 114 106 162 114 100 108 114 105 106 114 108 107 108 108 104 98 106 102 106 114 98 98 113 107 114 108 107 122 104 122 179 105 108 108 110 78 107 106 106 101 114 104 106 111 108 105 110 108 114 113 114 107 109 110 100 113 156 111 113 115 101 107 108 113 114 121 107 109 114 101 110 165 113 107 114 164 114 112 109 108 114 128 110 107 105 112 105 104 108 114 109 114 116 123 112 105 114 113 107 113 109 114 168 107 108 117 110 114 113 113 114 108 110 115 122 107 128 113 108 108 106 106 113 113 107 108 113 108 103 107 105 114 105 109 105
Last total 2879 5040 8560 8219 9596 9750 11660 3835 23502 30326 19183 4259 17607 8168 8088 8196 13421 22306 100808 7026 18065 9183 5928 25917 4908 25216 7047 48920 10782 6724 28394 6883 14456 30642 6001 24284 6224 9090 7105 9888 17170 14406 5652 14021 7069 10068 8200 8338 15874 12438 12649 3737 9047 20776 21655 6116 4867 4235 7851 11296 3132 5774 14099 2541 37782 23619 2789 7915 30789 8496 7478 10320 4239 20028 2969 23303 11792 7819 26682 30929 3009 4168 4839 8173 6356 4779 18035 9590 8775 6618 5800 2976 7310 29663 12404 5218 7009 4955 5226 5498 8050 3076 4772 13717 8149 6348 3837 10229 5481 22300 7323 11919 4180 12929 5076 20734 7922 7620 20683 4304 8853 6188 7029 26826 6914 8190 4953 26381 6110 5657 24714 7794 7822 7604 6767 14940 8938 6007 7564 19678 12199 33636 17330 24136 9378 62106 36332 4897 21590 6560 6848 48353 20397 12652 3755 2771 52747 8190 26063 2685 3430 16165 2221 3271 6787 12412 20005 4377 6140 7244 23431 8398 35425 1953 5981 8616 6345 5498 9276 2997 10003 12435 4330 6057 18061 17405 7371 30560 8475 4939 22985 9425 9627 15455 9097 14212 13766 10845 32778 9278 6184 9216 4576 10798 2613 21199 6408 6080 4866 21144 6530 5486 6827 7702 1644 1872 23099 34012 5535 5321 23816 4912 6861 43200 14937 15362 14598 5936 4787 5761 7293 15126 1634 5282 7480 4475 5504 4673 5851 8084 5422 8636 11303 14649 14740 22342 7390 7808 17016 8513 5310 5997 20848 15824 19921 5158 3728 22011 5454 15870 13352 11350 18272 5385 5523 2964 10898 9928 5347 2904 11400 6252 17847 8003 4209 985 28717 16430 5660 4843 5118 25387 25640 24844 22047 17779 7124 7890 5786 7882 4928 8191 6322 1165 8900 4647 4068 6431 14082 28971 17113 4913 8420 24207 6828 8170 24699 6057 5301 6410 10648 6628 5539 12176
Last daily increment 0 2 1 5 0 1 6 3 6 16 21 4 4 1 13 3 3 6 32 5 7 3 1 17 7 11 7 53 0 6 9 3 10 12 3 2 3 1 1 6 10 7 7 2 1 3 2 3 5 10 7 0 9 10 3 1 3 2 2 3 1 3 5 0 15 10 2 4 8 4 4 2 5 9 2 30 3 2 12 7 5 1 4 3 0 0 16 3 11 2 3 0 4 3 2 3 5 2 1 7 0 0 1 4 2 5 2 2 3 5 5 5 0 5 7 8 3 7 6 1 6 0 4 3 3 1 4 10 2 4 13 6 7 9 1 5 7 9 9 25 4 38 5 4 4 45 28 3 6 2 1 15 11 1 1 0 19 15 6 2 1 3 2 4 0 5 7 2 4 2 22 5 11 0 2 4 5 0 15 5 2 6 1 5 16 8 1 8 7 3 33 1 3 9 1 4 3 9 11 3 1 2 1 4 2 12 0 3 0 17 4 1 4 1 1 0 9 14 5 1 4 8 9 30 8 16 7 2 1 4 5 5 0 5 10 6 3 4 2 2 6 0 6 10 6 6 2 5 4 3 3 5 10 9 14 2 0 4 2 7 0 6 12 4 0 0 6 3 5 1 2 1 1 2 2 0 11 9 5 2 3 22 14 8 12 7 2 3 2 6 8 4 2 2 2 4 3 7 11 20 6 3 1 6 2 6 6 7 2 2 5 4 2 1
Last week 4 14 10 27 22 11 53 9 47 109 146 12 28 16 38 16 34 34 256 31 58 17 10 106 45 48 29 368 9 21 69 14 27 88 10 23 7 13 13 25 42 60 49 40 5 53 6 15 46 60 23 15 33 54 53 23 13 9 40 25 10 39 45 5 84 84 10 21 46 23 28 21 33 46 5 219 31 8 69 81 17 5 10 18 15 22 127 26 37 8 18 3 10 42 7 7 18 15 8 40 7 4 15 33 22 19 8 13 16 36 30 15 6 37 16 38 12 34 79 10 29 5 25 34 21 14 23 105 24 12 75 29 23 49 6 32 40 41 36 154 39 236 24 41 23 303 217 8 20 9 13 70 177 16 5 6 238 59 38 26 16 43 16 19 13 38 72 7 21 13 108 28 112 3 32 55 17 10 94 9 23 38 18 28 72 60 9 90 51 17 129 33 15 89 16 31 35 35 93 29 9 11 8 36 9 89 11 11 1 153 33 8 9 11 8 15 69 88 24 11 39 41 19 253 25 85 34 10 23 25 15 42 4 37 46 23 17 22 19 32 18 10 19 94 31 35 15 26 21 14 18 28 69 43 91 11 9 37 7 28 19 37 57 18 4 12 28 18 24 3 16 16 18 12 10 6 75 66 13 6 21 178 90 45 67 47 12 27 5 15 40 26 17 5 13 15 13 15 65 113 60 17 25 31 25 26 64 19 14 10 41 16 12 18
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1910-1110-2410-12 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1210-28 -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --11-02 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-2511-02 --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-29 --10-0709-2706-14 -- -- -- --09-28 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-25 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- --11-0310-26 --10-1310-13 --10-18 --10-12 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-0111-03 --09-30 -- --09-2911-01 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-06 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-17 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-05 -- -- -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 --11-03 --10-11 --10-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 62 29 77 72 95 164 99 54 233 135 55 71 321 57 71 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 68 293 144 20 165 29 55 31 32 55 75 41 129 71 25 71 31 56 65 43 52 59 152 86 540 75 530 611 61 73 391 51 58 68 608 256 82 102 95 43 41 42 196 63 44 67 237 232 86 183 438 113 65 24 71 76 118 183 125 31 127 177 46 90 48 138 134 58 91 320 137 38 31 65 130
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 9 54 28 19 61 34 27 21 82 19 33 55 9 32 16 55 18 31 14 105 70 9 53 6 19 15 8 17 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 24 18 11 14 21 20 23 154 15 57 134 19 34 54 14 16 7 70 57 17 40 25 13 12 21 62 22 19 14 48 91 18 24 119 34 22 11 28 24 29 46 48 9 58 33 15 31 7 27 34 21 19 77 21 9 11 18 16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-04-15 to 2021-04-21

DateAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-04-14 5040 8560 8219 9596 9750 11660 3835 23502 30326 19183 4259 17607 8168 8088 8196 13421 22306 100808 7026 18065 9183 5928 25917 4908 25216 7047 48920 10782 6724 28394 6883 14456 30642 6001 24284 6224 9090 7105 9888 17170 14406 5652 14021 10068 8200 8338 15874 12438 12649 3737 9047 20776 21655 6116 4867 4235 7851 11296 3132 5774 14099 37782 23619 2789 7915 30789 8496 7478 10320 4239 20028 23303 11792 7819 26682 30929 3009 4839 8173 6356 4779 18035 9590 8775 6618 5800 7310 29663 12404 5218 7009 4955 5226 5498 8050 4772 13717 8149 6348 3837 10229 5481 22300 7323 11919 4180 12929 5076 20734 7922 7620 20683 4304 8853 7029 26826 6914 8190 4953 26381 6110 5657 24714 7794 7822 7604 6767 14940 8938 6007 7564 19678 12199 33636 17330 24136 9378 62106 36332 4897 21590 6560 6848 48353 20397 12652 2771 52747 8190 26063 2685 3430 16165 2221 3271 6787 12412 20005 4377 6140 7244 23431 8398 35425 5981 8616 6345 5498 9276 2997 10003 12435 4330 6057 18061 17405 7371 30560 8475 4939 22985 9425 9627 15455 9097 14212 13766 10845 32778 9278 6184 9216 4576 10798 2613 21199 6408 6080 21144 6530 5486 6827 7702 1644 1872 23099 34012 5535 5321 23816 4912 6861 43200 14937 15362 14598 5936 4787 5761 7293 15126 5282 7480 4475 5504 4673 5851 8084 5422 8636 11303 14649 14740 22342 7390 7808 17016 8513 5310 5997 20848 15824 19921 5158 3728 22011 5454 15870 13352 11350 18272 5385 2964 10898 9928 5347 11400 6252 17847 8003 4209 985 28717 16430 5660 4843 5118 25387 25640 24844 22047 17779 7124 7890 7882 4928 8191 6322 8900 4647 4068 6431 14082 28971 17113 4913 8420 24207 6828 8170 24699 6057 5301 6410 10648 6628 5539 12176
2021-04-15 5041 8568 8228 9609 9751 11660 3837 23510 30340 19210 4263 17610 8172 8091 8201 13430 22310 100900 7034 18090 9194 5931 25960 4919 25220 7053 48950 10790 6725 28410 6884 14460 30660 6009 24290 6226 9092 7108 9896 17180 14430 5657 14030 10070 8203 8340 15880 12450 12650 3739 9051 20800 21660 6120 4873 4237 7865 11300 3134 5795 14110 37810 23630 2791 7915 30800 8500 7500 10320 4244 20040 23330 11810 7820 26700 30930 3012 4842 8175 6360 4783 18050 9602 8782 6626 5805 7312 29670 12410 5220 7016 4957 5230 5509 8051 4774 13720 8165 6348 3841 10230 5481 22300 7326 11920 4181 12940 5078 20740 7924 7624 20700 4306 8859 7033 26830 6917 8194 4962 26400 6120 5661 24740 7803 7832 7620 6770 14950 8945 6014 7569 19690 12210 33740 17330 24140 9388 62290 36400 4899 21590 6572 6849 48370 20420 12660 2771 52800 8216 26070 2689 3431 16170 2223 3274 6791 12430 20020 4379 6147 7261 23450 8402 35440 5989 8624 6356 5501 9285 2998 10010 12440 4332 6059 18090 17410 7373 30570 8481 4942 23010 9448 9630 15500 9101 14220 13780 10850 32790 9283 6187 9223 4578 10810 2615 21250 6412 6081 21170 6532 5491 6829 7704 1646 1874 23120 34020 5539 5329 23830 4918 6864 43310 14950 15380 14630 5944 4790 5765 7295 15130 5290 7484 4480 5508 4676 5856 8089 5427 8638 11300 14680 14750 22350 7393 7811 17020 8515 5315 6000 20860 15840 19940 5174 3729 22040 5455 15870 13360 11360 18310 5399 2966 10910 9929 5355 11400 6256 17850 8006 4211 985 28730 16460 5664 4844 5122 25440 25660 24850 22060 17810 7127 7894 7885 4935 8195 6330 8906 4650 4071 6442 14090 28990 17140 4915 8426 24220 6832 8174 24740 6060 5305 6413 10660 6630 5541 12180
2021-04-16 5044 8576 8231 9616 9753 11670 3838 23520 30360 19270 4265 17610 8185 8095 8204 13440 22350 100900 7048 18100 9200 5937 25980 4931 25240 7058 48990 10800 6731 28410 6885 14470 30690 6014 24300 6231 9096 7108 9903 17180 14440 5657 14040 10080 8205 8343 15900 12450 12660 3741 9052 20810 21670 6128 4877 4243 7876 11310 3137 5807 14120 37820 23650 2798 7916 30810 8511 7515 10340 4245 20040 23340 11820 7825 26710 30940 3019 4844 8178 6380 4794 18080 9609 8788 6631 5807 7318 29690 12410 5228 7021 4960 5230 5517 8053 4776 13730 8178 6352 3844 10230 5481 22310 7326 11940 4187 12950 5079 20740 7926 7624 20720 4316 8877 7037 26830 6926 8197 4971 26420 6149 5664 24760 7809 7837 7632 6776 14960 8955 6025 7577 19710 12220 33810 17340 24140 9394 62420 36460 4901 21600 6582 6851 48380 20460 12660 2771 52850 8230 26070 2696 3434 16180 2226 3276 6794 12440 20040 4381 6152 7269 23470 8409 35460 5995 8634 6366 5512 9298 2998 10020 12470 4338 6059 18110 17420 7381 30590 8489 4950 23020 9460 9637 15520 9104 14220 13780 10860 32810 9293 6197 9226 4585 10820 2617 21280 6416 6085 21200 6538 5500 6834 7708 1651 1874 23130 34020 5551 5335 23840 4929 6865 43370 14960 15400 14660 5947 4791 5771 7298 15130 5312 7497 4484 5514 4679 5871 8101 5430 8638 11310 14710 14760 22360 7403 7813 17020 8518 5322 6011 20890 15840 19970 5180 3732 22050 5459 15880 13360 11380 18330 5407 2967 10910 9932 5361 11410 6261 17860 8011 4215 985 28740 16480 5666 4845 5129 25470 25670 24870 22080 17830 7136 7901 7889 4943 8200 6338 8907 4661 4082 6449 14100 29000 17150 4916 8444 24230 6840 8184 24760 6065 5307 6425 10660 6631 5544 12190
2021-04-17 5046 8579 8234 9622 9754 11680 3839 23530 30370 19310 4265 17620 8193 8103 8205 13450 22370 101000 7059 18120 9205 5942 25990 4936 25250 7062 49040 10810 6735 28420 6888 14470 30700 6016 24310 6234 9099 7108 9911 17180 14460 5660 14040 10080 8206 8345 15910 12460 12660 3742 9054 20820 21670 6131 4879 4248 7888 11310 3139 5817 14130 37830 23660 2802 7920 30820 8519 7525 10350 4247 20060 23350 11830 7828 26710 30940 3024 4847 8180 6392 4801 18090 9617 8793 6634 5807 7322 29700 12420 5233 7025 4963 5232 5524 8054 4778 13730 8182 6354 3846 10240 5482 22320 7328 11940 4191 12950 5081 20750 7928 7626 20740 4322 8889 7041 26840 6932 8200 4973 26450 6169 5666 24780 7814 7842 7641 6780 14960 8963 6034 7581 19730 12230 33870 17340 24140 9398 62500 36490 4903 21610 6585 6852 48380 20500 12660 2773 52880 8240 26080 2701 3437 16190 2228 3278 6796 12450 20060 4383 6155 7273 23490 8415 35470 6001 8643 6370 5519 9309 2999 10020 12490 4342 6063 18120 17420 7385 30610 8496 4956 23040 9467 9642 15540 9106 14230 13790 10870 32830 9299 6203 9229 4589 10820 2619 21290 6418 6087 21220 6542 5506 6837 7711 1654 1874 23140 34030 5558 5336 23850 4938 6866 43420 14960 15420 14670 5950 4793 5776 7299 15130 5327 7505 4489 5518 4682 5882 8110 5430 8640 11310 14720 14770 22360 7410 7816 17030 8521 5325 6017 20900 15850 20000 5184 3734 22060 5461 15890 13360 11390 18340 5411 2969 10910 9933 5364 11420 6266 17870 8014 4219 985 28760 16500 5669 4846 5134 25490 25680 24880 22100 17840 7143 7906 7893 4950 8206 6340 8912 4669 4089 6452 14100 29010 17160 4918 8456 24230 6845 8191 24780 6069 5310 6433 10670 6633 5545 12190
2021-04-18 5047 8583 8237 9628 9755 11680 3841 23530 30380 19350 4268 17620 8200 8109 8208 13450 22380 101000 7068 18130 9211 5945 26010 4943 25250 7065 49060 10820 6737 28430 6888 14480 30710 6021 24320 6236 9102 7113 9914 17190 14470 5663 14050 10090 8208 8348 15920 12460 12660 3744 9057 20830 21680 6133 4882 4251 7898 11320 3141 5831 14140 37850 23670 2806 7925 30830 8525 7535 10350 4250 20060 23380 11830 7830 26720 30950 3028 4848 8182 6400 4807 18120 9622 8798 6637 5810 7325 29710 12420 5237 7028 4965 5233 5533 8055 4779 13730 8185 6355 3848 10240 5485 22330 7330 11950 4193 12960 5083 20750 7930 7629 20750 4326 8898 7045 26840 6936 8205 4976 26470 6184 5668 24780 7819 7848 7648 6783 14970 8971 6041 7584 19760 12240 33910 17350 24150 9402 62580 36540 4903 21610 6588 6853 48390 20530 12670 2774 52910 8251 26080 2706 3439 16200 2230 3280 6802 12460 20070 4384 6159 7274 23510 8419 35490 6008 8652 6376 5523 9320 3000 10030 12500 4345 6072 18140 17430 7389 30630 8506 4961 23060 9473 9645 15560 9106 14230 13790 10870 32840 9305 6208 9232 4592 10830 2620 21310 6420 6089 21240 6546 5511 6840 7714 1657 1875 23150 34040 5565 5337 23860 4945 6869 43470 14970 15430 14690 5953 4795 5780 7299 15140 5339 7511 4495 5522 4684 5889 8117 5433 8643 11310 14740 14780 22370 7414 7819 17030 8524 5328 6022 20920 15860 20020 5188 3736 22070 5463 15900 13370 11400 18360 5417 2971 10920 9935 5366 11420 6269 17870 8016 4221 985 28770 16510 5671 4847 5139 25520 25700 24890 22110 17860 7148 7911 7896 4957 8213 6343 8914 4674 4094 6456 14110 29030 17170 4920 8465 24240 6850 8196 24790 6072 5312 6439 10670 6635 5547 12200
2021-04-19 5049 8584 8243 9634 9759 11690 3842 23540 30400 19390 4270 17630 8205 8113 8212 13460 22400 101000 7076 18140 9214 5949 26040 4951 25260 7069 49120 10820 6740 28440 6890 14480 30730 6023 24330 6238 9104 7114 9918 17190 14480 5667 14050 10100 8209 8350 15930 12470 12670 3746 9060 20840 21680 6137 4885 4254 7905 11320 3143 5841 14150 37870 23690 2809 7925 30840 8531 7542 10360 4254 20070 23400 11840 7832 26730 30960 3032 4850 8185 6408 4812 18140 9624 8805 6640 5816 7328 29720 12420 5240 7030 4968 5236 5538 8057 4781 13730 8189 6359 3850 10240 5487 22330 7332 11950 4196 12970 5085 20760 7932 7632 20770 4330 8906 7049 26840 6941 8207 4982 26480 6198 5670 24800 7826 7854 7658 6787 14980 8978 6049 7592 19790 12240 33970 17350 24150 9408 62670 36570 4904 21610 6591 6854 48410 20550 12670 2775 52960 8265 26090 2711 3442 16210 2232 3283 6804 12460 20080 4386 6160 7279 23530 8424 35500 6010 8660 6384 5528 9330 3001 10030 12510 4348 6073 18150 17430 7392 30640 8515 4965 23070 9481 9649 15580 9110 14240 13800 10880 32860 9311 6212 9236 4595 10840 2622 21330 6422 6091 21270 6549 5516 6842 7716 1659 1876 23160 34040 5570 5343 23870 4952 6871 43510 14970 15440 14700 5955 4798 5784 7303 15140 5350 7516 4501 5526 4687 5896 8124 5435 8643 11310 14750 14790 22370 7419 7822 17030 8526 5330 6027 20930 15870 20040 5191 3737 22080 5465 15900 13370 11410 18370 5423 2972 10920 9936 5371 11430 6273 17880 8020 4224 985 28780 16520 5674 4848 5143 25550 25720 24900 22120 17870 7152 7915 7898 4964 8217 6346 8917 4679 4099 6462 14120 29050 17190 4922 8473 24250 6855 8202 24810 6076 5315 6444 10680 6636 5550 12200
2021-04-20 5050 8584 8248 9638 9759 11700 3844 23550 30410 19420 4271 17630 8210 8116 8215 13460 22410 101100 7084 18140 9221 5952 26060 4959 25270 7073 49150 10830 6742 28440 6891 14480 30740 6027 24330 6240 9107 7115 9921 17190 14490 5671 14060 10100 8210 8352 15930 12470 12670 3748 9064 20850 21680 6144 4888 4256 7913 11330 3145 5849 14160 37880 23700 2812 7929 30840 8536 7548 10370 4258 20070 23400 11840 7833 26740 30960 3035 4850 8187 6413 4817 18150 9629 8808 6640 5816 7330 29730 12420 5243 7032 4970 5237 5543 8057 4783 13730 8194 6360 3850 10240 5490 22330 7335 11960 4197 12970 5087 20760 7934 7635 20780 4333 8913 7053 26840 6944 8208 4983 26500 6210 5672 24810 7829 7856 7663 6789 14980 8985 6056 7596 19810 12250 34020 17350 24150 9412 62740 36600 4906 21620 6591 6854 48420 20580 12670 2775 52990 8272 26090 2715 3444 16220 2234 3285 6804 12470 20100 4388 6165 7283 23550 8427 35520 6017 8668 6386 5531 9339 3003 10040 12520 4350 6075 18160 17430 7395 30660 8520 4969 23090 9489 9652 15590 9113 14240 13810 10880 32870 9313 6216 9237 4597 10840 2623 21340 6424 6092 21300 6552 5521 6844 7718 1661 1877 23180 34040 5575 5343 23870 4958 6873 43560 14980 15450 14710 5957 4800 5788 7305 15140 5359 7520 4506 5530 4690 5901 8130 5435 8644 11310 14770 14800 22380 7422 7825 17030 8528 5333 6031 20950 15880 20060 5194 3738 22090 5467 15910 13370 11410 18380 5426 2974 10930 9938 5375 11430 6277 17880 8021 4226 987 28790 16540 5676 4849 5147 25560 25730 24900 22130 17880 7155 7920 7901 4971 8219 6349 8918 4683 4103 6465 14130 29070 17200 4924 8480 24250 6859 8206 24820 6079 5317 6447 10680 6638 5550 12210
2021-04-21 5051 8587 8255 9638 9760 11710 3845 23560 30430 19450 4275 17630 8214 8128 8217 13460 22420 101100 7091 18150 9223 5954 26080 4967 25280 7079 49200 10830 6743 28450 6894 14490 30750 6029 24340 6242 9109 7115 9926 17200 14490 5676 14070 10100 8212 8354 15940 12480 12670 3749 9067 20860 21680 6145 4890 4259 7916 11330 3146 5854 14160 37890 23710 2815 7932 30850 8540 7553 10370 4262 20080 23430 11850 7835 26760 30970 3038 4854 8189 6418 4821 18170 9632 8816 6642 5819 7332 29730 12420 5245 7037 4972 5237 5550 8057 4785 13740 8198 6364 3851 10250 5492 22340 7338 11960 4199 12980 5090 20770 7936 7639 20790 4336 8920 7056 26840 6948 8209 4987 26520 6221 5676 24820 7835 7861 7672 6792 14990 8992 6062 7604 19840 12260 34050 17360 24150 9415 62800 36630 4908 21620 6595 6855 48440 20610 12680 2775 53020 8287 26100 2719 3445 16220 2236 3288 6805 12470 20110 4389 6169 7287 23560 8431 35530 6021 8676 6391 5534 9349 3006 10040 12530 4352 6080 18180 17440 7397 30670 8527 4972 23110 9492 9655 15610 9118 14250 13810 10890 32880 9316 6219 9240 4599 10850 2625 21360 6425 6093 21320 6555 5525 6845 7720 1663 1879 23190 34060 5580 5345 23880 4964 6876 43600 14980 15470 14720 5960 4803 5791 7309 15150 5368 7523 4509 5533 4693 5906 8135 5440 8645 11310 14780 14800 22380 7425 7828 17030 8531 5336 6034 20960 15890 20080 5197 3739 22100 5468 15910 13370 11420 18390 5430 2976 10930 9939 5381 11440 6280 17880 8022 4229 987 28800 16540 5680 4850 5150 25590 25740 24910 22140 17880 7158 7924 7904 4978 8223 6352 8920 4686 4106 6471 14140 29090 17210 4926 8486 24260 6863 8210 24830 6081 5320 6450 10690 6640 5551 12210

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-04-15 to 2021-04-21

DateAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-04-14 5040 8560 8219 9596 9750 11660 3835 23502 30326 19183 4259 17607 8168 8088 8196 13421 22306 100808 7026 18065 9183 5928 25917 4908 25216 7047 48920 10782 6724 28394 6883 14456 30642 6001 24284 6224 9090 7105 9888 17170 14406 5652 14021 10068 8200 8338 15874 12438 12649 3737 9047 20776 21655 6116 4867 4235 7851 11296 3132 5774 14099 37782 23619 2789 7915 30789 8496 7478 10320 4239 20028 23303 11792 7819 26682 30929 3009 4839 8173 6356 4779 18035 9590 8775 6618 5800 7310 29663 12404 5218 7009 4955 5226 5498 8050 4772 13717 8149 6348 3837 10229 5481 22300 7323 11919 4180 12929 5076 20734 7922 7620 20683 4304 8853 7029 26826 6914 8190 4953 26381 6110 5657 24714 7794 7822 7604 6767 14940 8938 6007 7564 19678 12199 33636 17330 24136 9378 62106 36332 4897 21590 6560 6848 48353 20397 12652 2771 52747 8190 26063 2685 3430 16165 2221 3271 6787 12412 20005 4377 6140 7244 23431 8398 35425 5981 8616 6345 5498 9276 2997 10003 12435 4330 6057 18061 17405 7371 30560 8475 4939 22985 9425 9627 15455 9097 14212 13766 10845 32778 9278 6184 9216 4576 10798 2613 21199 6408 6080 21144 6530 5486 6827 7702 1644 1872 23099 34012 5535 5321 23816 4912 6861 43200 14937 15362 14598 5936 4787 5761 7293 15126 5282 7480 4475 5504 4673 5851 8084 5422 8636 11303 14649 14740 22342 7390 7808 17016 8513 5310 5997 20848 15824 19921 5158 3728 22011 5454 15870 13352 11350 18272 5385 2964 10898 9928 5347 11400 6252 17847 8003 4209 985 28717 16430 5660 4843 5118 25387 25640 24844 22047 17779 7124 7890 7882 4928 8191 6322 8900 4647 4068 6431 14082 28971 17113 4913 8420 24207 6828 8170 24699 6057 5301 6410 10648 6628 5539 12176
2021-04-15 5042 8561 8226 9599 9750 11670 3837 23510 30340 19210 4261 17610 8171 8093 8201 13430 22310 100800 7032 18080 9187 5930 25940 4914 25220 7053 48970 10780 6727 28410 6885 14460 30660 6004 24290 6226 9092 7108 9892 17180 14420 5657 14030 10070 8201 8340 15880 12450 12650 3738 9052 20790 21660 6119 4870 4237 7857 11300 3134 5784 14110 37800 23630 2791 7917 30800 8501 7484 10320 4244 20040 23340 11800 7821 26690 30940 3013 4842 8176 6360 4782 18050 9595 8782 6620 5803 7313 29670 12410 5220 7014 4957 5228 5504 8051 4773 13720 8155 6350 3838 10230 5483 22310 7326 11920 4181 12940 5079 20740 7924 7625 20690 4307 8859 7032 26830 6918 8192 4958 26400 6115 5658 24730 7798 7826 7611 6769 14950 8944 6014 7570 19690 12210 33690 17330 24140 9383 62180 36370 4899 21590 6563 6850 48360 20420 12650 2771 52780 8203 26070 2689 3432 16170 2223 3274 6788 12420 20020 4379 6145 7249 23450 8402 35440 5985 8622 6349 5500 9290 2998 10010 12440 4333 6060 18080 17410 7373 30570 8480 4942 23010 9435 9630 15470 9101 14220 13770 10850 32790 9280 6186 9218 4578 10800 2615 21220 6409 6082 21170 6536 5488 6829 7704 1646 1873 23110 34020 5538 5322 23820 4918 6865 43250 14940 15370 14610 5938 4789 5766 7295 15130 5287 7488 4478 5509 4677 5856 8089 5425 8637 11310 14660 14750 22350 7392 7812 17020 8515 5313 6001 20860 15830 19940 5163 3729 22020 5455 15880 13360 11360 18280 5388 2965 10900 9931 5352 11400 6255 17850 8005 4212 986 28730 16440 5663 4844 5121 25420 25660 24850 22060 17790 7126 7894 7885 4935 8193 6326 8903 4651 4071 6434 14090 28980 17130 4915 8425 24210 6832 8174 24710 6061 5303 6411 10650 6630 5540 12180
2021-04-16 5045 8564 8228 9602 9752 11670 3838 23520 30360 19240 4262 17610 8177 8095 8203 13430 22330 100900 7038 18090 9189 5933 25950 4922 25230 7057 49030 10790 6730 28420 6887 14460 30670 6005 24300 6227 9095 7109 9896 17190 14420 5660 14030 10080 8203 8342 15890 12450 12650 3739 9053 20790 21670 6123 4873 4240 7862 11300 3136 5794 14120 37810 23640 2795 7918 30810 8506 7491 10330 4246 20040 23360 11810 7823 26700 30960 3017 4843 8178 6367 4787 18060 9598 8786 6622 5806 7315 29680 12410 5223 7017 4960 5229 5511 8052 4774 13730 8162 6353 3840 10230 5484 22310 7327 11930 4183 12940 5080 20740 7925 7626 20700 4312 8867 7035 26840 6922 8194 4964 26420 6124 5660 24750 7801 7830 7619 6773 14950 8951 6022 7576 19700 12210 33730 17340 24150 9386 62240 36410 4900 21600 6566 6852 48370 20440 12660 2771 52820 8216 26070 2693 3434 16180 2225 3276 6790 12430 20030 4381 6148 7253 23470 8405 35460 5989 8629 6353 5504 9303 2999 10010 12460 4337 6061 18090 17420 7375 30590 8486 4947 23020 9442 9632 15480 9105 14220 13780 10860 32810 9285 6189 9220 4581 10810 2616 21240 6411 6084 21190 6543 5489 6831 7707 1648 1874 23120 34030 5543 5324 23830 4923 6867 43290 14950 15390 14620 5940 4791 5769 7298 15140 5296 7499 4479 5514 4679 5865 8096 5428 8638 11310 14680 14760 22350 7396 7816 17030 8516 5317 6005 20880 15830 19950 5165 3730 22030 5457 15880 13360 11360 18290 5391 2966 10910 9933 5358 11410 6260 17850 8006 4214 986 28740 16450 5663 4845 5124 25440 25670 24860 22070 17800 7130 7899 7887 4942 8196 6330 8904 4656 4076 6437 14100 28990 17140 4916 8431 24220 6835 8180 24720 6064 5305 6415 10660 6631 5543 12180
2021-04-17 5047 8566 8231 9604 9754 11680 3839 23530 30370 19270 4263 17620 8182 8098 8204 13440 22330 100900 7043 18100 9191 5936 25960 4926 25240 7061 49080 10790 6732 28420 6889 14470 30680 6006 24300 6228 9097 7110 9900 17190 14430 5663 14040 10080 8204 8344 15890 12460 12660 3741 9055 20800 21670 6126 4874 4243 7868 11310 3138 5804 14120 37820 23660 2798 7921 30810 8510 7496 10340 4249 20050 23390 11810 7824 26700 30970 3020 4844 8179 6372 4790 18070 9602 8790 6623 5808 7317 29680 12410 5225 7020 4962 5230 5516 8052 4775 13730 8165 6355 3842 10230 5484 22320 7328 11930 4185 12950 5081 20740 7927 7628 20710 4315 8873 7037 26840 6925 8197 4967 26430 6131 5661 24760 7802 7833 7624 6777 14960 8957 6029 7579 19720 12220 33760 17340 24160 9387 62290 36440 4901 21600 6568 6853 48380 20460 12660 2773 52850 8228 26080 2697 3436 16180 2227 3278 6792 12430 20040 4382 6150 7255 23490 8407 35470 5994 8636 6355 5507 9317 2999 10010 12470 4341 6062 18100 17430 7377 30600 8491 4951 23040 9448 9635 15490 9109 14220 13780 10860 32820 9289 6191 9222 4583 10810 2617 21250 6412 6086 21200 6549 5491 6833 7709 1650 1875 23130 34040 5546 5325 23840 4929 6869 43330 14950 15400 14620 5941 4793 5773 7299 15140 5303 7507 4480 5516 4682 5870 8103 5429 8639 11310 14700 14760 22360 7399 7819 17030 8518 5319 6007 20890 15840 19960 5168 3732 22040 5458 15890 13360 11370 18300 5392 2967 10910 9934 5363 11410 6263 17860 8008 4215 986 28740 16460 5664 4845 5126 25460 25680 24870 22080 17800 7132 7904 7888 4950 8199 6332 8905 4660 4078 6438 14110 28990 17140 4917 8436 24220 6838 8185 24730 6066 5307 6418 10660 6632 5544 12190
2021-04-18 5049 8567 8234 9607 9755 11680 3841 23530 30380 19290 4264 17620 8186 8102 8207 13440 22340 100900 7049 18110 9194 5938 25980 4932 25250 7064 49120 10790 6734 28430 6891 14470 30690 6007 24310 6229 9099 7111 9903 17200 14430 5667 14040 10090 8205 8346 15900 12460 12660 3743 9056 20810 21680 6129 4877 4245 7874 11310 3140 5813 14130 37830 23670 2800 7924 30820 8514 7502 10340 4252 20050 23420 11820 7825 26710 30980 3023 4846 8181 6376 4793 18080 9606 8794 6624 5811 7319 29690 12410 5227 7023 4964 5231 5524 8053 4777 13740 8167 6357 3843 10240 5486 22320 7330 11930 4186 12950 5082 20750 7929 7632 20720 4318 8880 7039 26850 6930 8200 4970 26450 6138 5663 24770 7804 7838 7628 6780 14960 8964 6035 7582 19730 12230 33790 17340 24160 9389 62330 36480 4902 21600 6570 6854 48390 20480 12660 2774 52880 8240 26080 2701 3438 16190 2228 3280 6795 12440 20060 4384 6154 7255 23500 8410 35490 5999 8643 6357 5509 9330 3000 10020 12480 4344 6066 18110 17440 7379 30610 8498 4955 23050 9453 9636 15500 9111 14230 13790 10870 32830 9293 6193 9224 4585 10820 2619 21270 6413 6088 21220 6555 5492 6834 7711 1652 1876 23140 34040 5549 5327 23840 4934 6871 43370 14950 15410 14630 5943 4796 5778 7300 15150 5310 7515 4482 5520 4685 5874 8108 5431 8640 11320 14710 14770 22360 7401 7823 17030 8519 5321 6010 20900 15850 19970 5172 3732 22040 5460 15890 13370 11380 18310 5395 2968 10920 9936 5367 11410 6267 17860 8009 4217 987 28750 16470 5666 4845 5129 25480 25690 24870 22090 17810 7134 7908 7889 4957 8204 6334 8906 4663 4081 6440 14120 29010 17150 4918 8440 24230 6842 8190 24730 6069 5308 6421 10670 6633 5546 12190
2021-04-19 5051 8568 8239 9612 9758 11690 3842 23540 30400 19320 4265 17620 8190 8106 8211 13450 22350 101000 7054 18120 9195 5941 26000 4939 25250 7068 49180 10790 6735 28440 6893 14470 30700 6007 24310 6230 9102 7112 9908 17210 14440 5672 14040 10090 8206 8347 15900 12470 12660 3745 9058 20810 21680 6133 4879 4246 7878 11310 3142 5820 14140 37850 23680 2803 7924 30830 8518 7509 10340 4255 20060 23440 11820 7826 26720 31000 3026 4847 8183 6380 4796 18100 9608 8800 6627 5816 7321 29700 12410 5228 7024 4965 5233 5528 8054 4778 13740 8170 6360 3845 10240 5488 22320 7331 11930 4187 12960 5083 20750 7931 7635 20720 4322 8888 7040 26850 6933 8202 4975 26470 6143 5664 24790 7808 7843 7635 6783 14970 8970 6042 7589 19750 12230 33830 17350 24170 9392 62400 36510 4903 21600 6572 6855 48400 20500 12670 2775 52910 8255 26090 2705 3441 16200 2230 3282 6796 12450 20070 4385 6156 7256 23520 8414 35500 6001 8652 6360 5511 9343 3000 10020 12490 4346 6067 18130 17440 7381 30620 8505 4958 23070 9461 9639 15510 9116 14230 13790 10870 32850 9297 6194 9227 4586 10820 2620 21280 6414 6089 21250 6560 5493 6835 7713 1654 1877 23150 34050 5553 5331 23850 4939 6873 43410 14960 15420 14630 5945 4799 5781 7302 15160 5319 7522 4483 5523 4687 5880 8112 5434 8641 11320 14730 14780 22370 7403 7826 17040 8521 5323 6012 20910 15860 19980 5176 3734 22050 5461 15900 13370 11380 18310 5399 2969 10920 9937 5372 11410 6270 17870 8011 4218 987 28760 16480 5667 4846 5131 25500 25710 24880 22100 17820 7136 7912 7890 4963 8207 6336 8908 4666 4084 6445 14130 29020 17160 4919 8447 24240 6844 8193 24740 6072 5310 6423 10670 6634 5549 12190
2021-04-20 5053 8570 8243 9616 9760 11700 3843 23550 30410 19350 4266 17630 8194 8110 8214 13450 22350 101000 7059 18130 9199 5943 26010 4946 25260 7072 49230 10790 6736 28450 6895 14470 30710 6009 24320 6231 9104 7113 9911 17220 14450 5677 14050 10100 8207 8348 15910 12480 12660 3747 9060 20820 21690 6136 4882 4248 7883 11320 3143 5829 14140 37850 23690 2805 7926 30840 8521 7514 10350 4258 20060 23460 11830 7827 26730 31010 3029 4848 8184 6383 4799 18100 9612 8803 6629 5819 7323 29700 12410 5230 7027 4967 5234 5533 8054 4780 13750 8173 6362 3846 10240 5489 22330 7332 11940 4189 12960 5084 20750 7933 7637 20730 4324 8893 7042 26860 6935 8204 4978 26480 6148 5666 24800 7810 7847 7639 6786 14970 8975 6048 7593 19770 12240 33860 17350 24170 9395 62450 36540 4904 21610 6573 6856 48410 20520 12670 2775 52950 8267 26090 2709 3443 16200 2231 3284 6797 12450 20080 4387 6158 7257 23530 8416 35520 6005 8659 6362 5512 9357 3001 10020 12490 4349 6068 18140 17450 7382 30640 8509 4962 23080 9470 9640 15520 9120 14240 13800 10880 32860 9300 6196 9229 4588 10830 2621 21300 6416 6090 21270 6565 5494 6836 7715 1655 1879 23160 34050 5556 5333 23860 4944 6875 43460 14960 15430 14640 5947 4801 5784 7303 15160 5329 7530 4485 5526 4690 5883 8118 5435 8643 11320 14750 14780 22370 7405 7829 17040 8522 5326 6014 20930 15860 19990 5180 3736 22060 5462 15900 13370 11390 18320 5403 2970 10920 9939 5376 11410 6274 17870 8012 4219 988 28760 16490 5669 4846 5132 25520 25720 24890 22110 17820 7138 7916 7892 4970 8210 6339 8909 4669 4086 6447 14140 29030 17170 4920 8451 24240 6846 8196 24760 6074 5313 6425 10680 6635 5552 12190
2021-04-21 5054 8572 8251 9617 9763 11700 3844 23550 30420 19380 4267 17630 8197 8116 8216 13460 22360 101000 7064 18140 9201 5946 26030 4954 25270 7077 49280 10790 6739 28460 6897 14480 30720 6009 24320 6232 9106 7113 9915 17230 14450 5681 14050 10100 8208 8349 15920 12480 12660 3748 9062 20830 21690 6139 4884 4250 7887 11320 3145 5835 14150 37860 23700 2808 7928 30840 8524 7521 10350 4261 20070 23480 11840 7828 26740 31020 3032 4850 8186 6387 4802 18120 9616 8807 6630 5822 7324 29710 12420 5231 7030 4969 5235 5540 8054 4781 13760 8177 6364 3847 10240 5490 22330 7334 11940 4190 12960 5085 20760 7935 7640 20740 4327 8898 7044 26860 6937 8206 4983 26500 6154 5669 24810 7813 7852 7646 6788 14980 8981 6055 7598 19790 12250 33910 17350 24180 9397 62510 36580 4905 21610 6576 6857 48420 20540 12670 2776 52980 8282 26090 2713 3445 16210 2233 3287 6799 12460 20090 4388 6161 7259 23550 8419 35530 6011 8665 6364 5514 9370 3003 10030 12510 4351 6070 18160 17460 7384 30650 8514 4965 23100 9477 9642 15540 9124 14240 13800 10880 32870 9305 6198 9232 4590 10830 2623 21310 6417 6092 21290 6571 5495 6837 7717 1657 1880 23170 34070 5559 5336 23860 4949 6877 43500 14960 15440 14650 5950 4804 5787 7305 15170 5339 7539 4486 5529 4693 5888 8122 5438 8644 11320 14760 14790 22370 7406 7833 17050 8524 5329 6015 20940 15870 20000 5185 3737 22070 5463 15900 13370 11390 18330 5407 2971 10930 9940 5381 11420 6277 17870 8013 4221 988 28770 16500 5671 4846 5134 25540 25730 24900 22120 17830 7139 7920 7893 4978 8212 6342 8910 4671 4087 6451 14150 29040 17180 4921 8455 24250 6848 8200 24770 6076 5315 6428 10680 6636 5554 12200

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.