COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-04-18 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-04-18

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-04-18

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-3012-2712-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3012-2712-2212-2812-2712-272021-01-032021-01-072021-01-0111-1512-2812-2210-2912-2212-2712-2712-1312-2712-2712-2512-2112-2712-2212-3012-3012-2711-0312-2112-2712-2512-0812-2712-2112-212021-01-0412-2212-2912-2612-2212-212021-01-0412-2112-2112-3112-2612-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-3012-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-212021-01-022021-02-2510-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-2412-3012-2412-2111-0212-2610-3112-2712-2912-2812-2112-2512-2212-2612-1412-232021-01-0609-2712-2312-2812-1812-252021-01-0412-2712-2612-2112-2712-2212-2112-2712-2112-2712-2212-2112-2112-2112-2212-2712-2712-2212-2212-1312-2712-1312-2812-2112-2912-2712-2812-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2212-2812-2812-2510-2812-2110-2712-2712-2912-3012-2712-2812-2112-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2312-212021-01-0412-302021-01-0312-2211-042021-01-0712-2112-2112-2112-2212-2512-2212-2612-2812-292021-01-0311-0412-2812-0812-2710-2512-2612-2111-0412-2112-2911-0312-212021-01-0412-2712-2112-3012-2912-2112-2712-2812-2712-2712-312021-01-0612-292021-01-0212-2912-212021-01-062021-01-0612-2212-2812-2112-2712-2812-1312-3112-1310-1712-3012-2712-2712-252021-01-2612-2812-2912-292021-01-0312-2112-3112-2912-2412-2712-3012-2512-2712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0912-2412-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-212021-01-0312-2510-3112-2212-2812-2111-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-212021-03-1512-2512-2812-3012-2312-3012-3112-2712-2112-2612-2112-1912-1212-2312-3012-2112-2212-2812-2212-2612-2110-2812-2812-2712-1812-2512-2112-2212-2212-2112-2712-2512-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2712-2712-2912-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-3012-2112-3012-3012-30
Peak daily increment 61 88 97 180 109 172 178 78 480 586 191 59 326 131 108 108 232 422 1250 70 158 67 58 158 49 485 141 441 228 107 524 154 310 317 107 505 94 189 62 123 123 141 97 255 87 149 171 173 301 89 263 52 200 250 283 61 90 71 66 244 53 95 285 35 367 289 38 184 598 151 69 189 72 245 26 249 187 118 322 539 60 51 76 160 110 52 224 102 164 146 108 54 143 588 271 94 74 75 89 73 125 53 38 122 80 92 56 180 90 449 120 220 59 199 57 398 176 104 339 101 110 135 121 478 101 159 47 444 57 116 450 139 84 134 236 275 148 71 99 296 197 360 310 429 107 380 287 104 444 72 111 735 271 199 90 37 377 89 418 29 46 297 49 62 148 119 362 79 105 63 123 85 726 23 50 159 105 51 109 59 123 121 41 55 277 158 122 225 89 44 125 127 109 154 117 203 103 174 621 83 81 174 52 187 40 133 139 56 96 198 80 86 59 174 36 26 163 450 42 82 403 65 130 244 209 245 167 98 107 101 69 180 27 42 85 83 96 80 109 80 67 103 113 247 294 456 131 152 218 93 57 112 178 132 194 66 42 202 106 320 16 181 125 55 108 46 139 321 91 45 138 123 369 138 49 11 558 153 92 107 85 258 324 450 387 229 76 136 117 159 65 154 87 28 83 42 67 115 216 219 263 84 148 429 106 139 375 106 114 95 173 71 69 187
Days since peak 112 109 112 118 112 131 118 116 113 116 187 112 116 111 97 109 112 117 111 112 112 105 101 107 154 111 117 171 117 112 112 126 112 112 114 118 112 117 109 109 112 166 118 112 114 131 112 118 118 104 117 110 113 117 118 104 118 118 108 113 112 111 110 117 117 109 111 112 112 118 114 118 118 106 52 186 112 132 113 112 115 109 115 118 167 113 169 112 110 111 118 114 117 113 125 116 102 203 116 111 121 114 104 112 113 118 112 117 118 112 118 112 117 118 118 118 117 112 112 117 117 126 112 126 111 118 110 112 111 115 114 118 107 111 112 117 111 111 114 172 118 173 112 110 109 112 111 118 112 112 140 112 112 116 118 104 109 105 117 165 101 118 118 118 117 114 117 113 111 110 105 165 111 131 112 175 113 118 165 118 110 166 118 104 112 118 109 110 118 112 111 112 112 108 102 110 106 110 118 102 102 117 111 118 112 111 126 108 126 183 109 112 112 114 82 111 110 110 105 118 108 110 115 112 109 114 112 118 117 118 111 113 114 104 117 160 115 117 119 105 111 112 117 118 125 111 113 118 105 114 169 117 111 118 168 118 116 117 112 118 34 114 111 109 116 109 108 112 118 113 118 120 127 116 109 118 117 111 117 113 118 172 111 112 121 114 118 117 117 118 112 114 119 126 111 132 117 112 112 110 110 117 117 111 112 117 112 107 111 109 118 109 109 109
Last total 2884 5045 8563 8228 9601 9760 11681 3844 23542 30383 19249 4263 17614 8188 8114 8207 13443 22331 100982 7040 18083 9193 5938 26002 4926 25246 7058 49058 10790 6730 28461 6888 14478 30705 6008 24298 6233 9096 7117 9902 17203 14443 5685 14045 7078 10085 8204 8345 15905 12463 12660 3743 9077 20814 21675 6133 4879 4239 7871 11310 3140 5788 14142 2548 37846 23674 2803 7930 30814 8513 7494 10333 4253 20064 2971 23430 11826 7823 26729 30995 3014 4176 4847 8191 6373 4788 18098 9596 8799 6625 5823 2980 7322 29702 12418 5229 7018 4962 5231 5530 8051 3081 4774 13730 8163 6356 3841 10237 5492 22331 7350 11920 4186 12965 5088 20758 7929 7639 20730 4313 8880 6193 7036 26845 6933 8203 4970 26443 6121 5673 24776 7820 7832 7621 6776 14961 8961 6025 7582 19733 12218 33775 17348 24175 9389 62313 36447 4905 21619 6571 6859 48391 20468 12671 3755 2774 52893 8205 26081 2693 3437 16194 2227 3280 6807 12440 20036 4384 6157 7261 23489 8427 35492 1962 5997 8630 6356 5505 9327 3008 10037 12457 4342 6066 18126 17436 7376 30606 8496 4948 23030 9453 9636 15507 9111 14229 13797 10866 32835 9293 6196 9227 4579 10814 2616 21244 6412 6088 4868 21208 6555 5496 6833 7708 1646 1874 23136 34097 5546 5340 23847 4943 6871 43358 14967 15420 14626 5943 4799 5778 7301 15152 1639 5301 7507 4486 5512 4682 5862 8091 5434 8645 11316 14688 14746 22377 7395 7816 17031 8521 5327 6005 20890 15847 19965 5164 3738 22037 5460 15885 13361 11387 18322 5396 5525 2979 10929 9950 5358 2909 11409 6267 17860 8012 4213 989 28759 16452 5674 4850 5138 25467 25685 24870 22101 17803 7134 7908 5798 7885 4948 8198 6335 1167 8911 4657 4082 6443 14104 29011 17153 4918 8439 24230 6843 8181 24732 6067 5306 6415 10679 6635 5542 12198
Last daily increment 0 0 2 3 2 3 9 3 19 17 16 2 3 9 4 6 4 4 57 9 6 2 7 24 5 12 3 29 2 1 19 4 9 16 0 5 6 1 6 3 9 13 15 6 2 4 0 3 8 0 3 2 13 11 10 4 5 2 5 4 4 6 16 4 17 12 4 1 9 12 5 3 2 11 2 44 13 3 17 16 4 5 3 4 4 3 11 0 5 2 4 0 5 11 4 1 6 2 1 6 0 3 0 4 10 3 2 5 7 7 8 2 5 8 4 11 3 6 4 3 1 0 3 7 10 3 1 17 6 5 16 6 5 4 2 5 4 5 4 10 8 33 1 10 6 49 21 2 7 3 3 10 15 7 0 4 48 3 11 5 1 9 2 3 4 6 4 3 4 10 19 6 16 6 5 8 4 2 10 2 9 10 2 2 19 12 2 10 3 2 11 6 3 8 10 6 8 6 17 4 3 2 1 5 0 15 2 6 1 16 7 5 3 2 2 0 8 21 6 4 5 13 6 35 14 16 10 2 5 8 2 11 4 4 9 3 5 3 4 1 5 3 2 12 3 13 2 2 5 5 4 1 12 9 11 0 2 8 4 6 2 8 6 6 1 1 13 7 2 1 5 3 8 5 2 2 10 5 5 2 5 23 12 7 17 3 6 2 3 1 4 2 6 2 3 5 5 3 4 14 11 1 6 10 3 2 8 3 1 1 9 1 0 1
Last week 6 8 6 19 7 14 38 14 51 88 110 9 15 23 40 19 27 33 235 23 30 19 13 118 36 50 23 236 9 15 90 9 36 89 14 21 12 8 13 25 47 56 44 34 10 22 6 13 41 44 20 9 43 53 31 26 18 5 28 15 9 25 62 7 85 74 17 24 38 25 24 12 29 50 5 189 45 9 74 76 11 10 12 24 18 14 97 15 40 12 30 6 19 48 18 14 16 14 8 47 1 5 4 22 24 14 7 9 18 37 34 14 6 45 20 39 9 32 62 11 40 7 17 30 25 14 19 91 16 23 81 32 18 30 10 28 37 31 32 103 27 206 26 51 19 309 170 12 37 15 15 70 104 22 3 6 212 36 29 14 8 39 8 16 20 33 46 9 27 22 93 38 97 9 27 23 17 10 74 17 40 31 16 19 90 47 7 74 31 10 100 33 14 70 21 22 38 35 79 20 10 15 5 29 6 71 7 14 4 103 34 13 12 9 3 5 58 110 20 22 43 41 18 223 43 83 38 10 16 25 16 36 5 30 39 21 12 18 16 15 21 14 21 65 13 46 10 14 22 11 23 15 59 33 74 11 14 36 10 27 14 53 66 19 5 14 40 28 20 6 15 21 15 14 8 7 65 48 22 10 24 126 77 40 70 40 12 21 14 9 33 14 17 4 12 21 18 23 56 82 64 11 27 28 19 19 57 17 8 8 46 10 6 29
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1910-1110-2410-12 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1210-28 -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --11-02 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-2511-02 --10-31 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-29 --10-0709-2706-14 -- -- -- --09-28 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-25 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- --11-0310-26 --10-1310-13 --10-18 --10-11 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-0211-01 --09-30 -- --09-2911-01 -- -- -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-06 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- --12-07 --10-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-20 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-05 -- -- -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 --11-03 --10-1311-0310-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 62 29 78 72 95 164 99 54 233 136 55 71 321 57 70 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 68 293 144 20 165 29 57 31 32 55 41 129 71 25 71 31 56 65 43 52 59 152 86 540 75 530 611 61 73 391 51 58 68 608 256 82 102 95 43 41 42 196 64 44 67 237 232 85 183 438 113 65 24 70 76 118 183 125 31 127 188 177 46 90 48 138 134 58 91 320 137 38 31 65 41 130
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 10 54 28 19 62 34 27 21 81 19 33 55 9 32 16 55 18 31 13 105 70 9 53 7 19 15 8 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 24 18 11 14 21 20 23 154 15 57 135 19 34 54 14 16 7 70 57 17 40 25 13 12 21 62 22 19 14 48 91 18 25 119 34 22 11 28 24 29 46 48 9 58 7 33 16 31 7 27 34 21 19 77 21 9 11 18 13 16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-04-19 to 2021-04-25

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-04-18 2884 5045 8563 8228 9601 9760 11681 3844 23542 30383 19249 4263 17614 8188 8114 8207 13443 22331 100982 7040 18083 9193 5938 26002 4926 25246 7058 49058 10790 6730 28461 6888 14478 30705 6008 24298 6233 9096 7117 9902 17203 14443 5685 14045 7078 10085 8204 8345 15905 12463 12660 3743 9077 20814 21675 6133 4879 7871 11310 3140 5788 14142 2548 37846 23674 2803 7930 30814 8513 7494 10333 4253 20064 23430 11826 7823 26729 30995 3014 4176 4847 8191 6373 4788 18098 9596 8799 6625 5823 2980 7322 29702 12418 5229 7018 4962 5231 5530 13730 8163 6356 3841 10237 5492 22331 7350 11920 4186 12965 5088 20758 7929 7639 20730 4313 8880 6193 7036 26845 6933 8203 4970 26443 6121 5673 24776 7820 7832 7621 6776 14961 8961 6025 7582 19733 12218 33775 17348 24175 9389 62313 36447 4905 21619 6571 6859 48391 20468 12671 2774 52893 8205 26081 2693 3437 16194 2227 3280 6807 12440 20036 4384 6157 7261 23489 8427 35492 1962 5997 8630 6356 5505 9327 3008 10037 12457 4342 6066 18126 17436 7376 30606 8496 4948 23030 9453 9636 15507 9111 14229 13797 10866 32835 9293 6196 9227 10814 2616 21244 6412 6088 21208 6555 5496 6833 7708 23136 34097 5546 5340 23847 4943 6871 43358 14967 15420 14626 5943 4799 5778 7301 15152 5301 7507 4486 5512 4682 5862 8091 5434 8645 11316 14688 14746 22377 7395 7816 17031 8521 5327 6005 20890 15847 19965 5164 3738 22037 5460 15885 13361 11387 18322 5396 2979 10929 9950 5358 2909 11409 6267 17860 8012 4213 989 28759 16452 5674 4850 5138 25467 25685 24870 22101 17803 7134 7908 5798 7885 4948 8198 6335 8911 4657 4082 6443 14104 29011 17153 4918 8439 24230 6843 8181 24732 6067 5306 6415 10679 6635 5542 12198
2021-04-19 2885 5047 8568 8237 9616 9761 11690 3845 23550 30400 19260 4267 17620 8192 8120 8210 13450 22330 101100 7045 18090 9195 5941 26030 4937 25250 7062 49200 10790 6732 28470 6891 14480 30720 6008 24300 6235 9098 7117 9907 17210 14460 5691 14050 7080 10090 8206 8347 15910 12480 12660 3745 9082 20820 21690 6136 4881 7885 11310 3141 5796 14140 2549 37860 23690 2805 7933 30820 8517 7508 10340 4257 20070 23470 11830 7826 26740 31030 3017 4177 4847 8194 6379 4792 18130 9601 8803 6625 5829 2980 7324 29710 12420 5231 7023 4964 5232 5536 13740 8172 6359 3844 10240 5492 22340 7354 11920 4187 12970 5090 20760 7931 7643 20740 4317 8886 6193 7039 26850 6937 8206 4978 26460 6124 5673 24790 7825 7841 7639 6778 14970 8967 6031 7588 19770 12220 33840 17350 24180 9396 62380 36520 4905 21620 6576 6862 48410 20490 12670 2775 52930 8239 26090 2696 3441 16200 2229 3282 6807 12450 20050 4386 6159 7263 23510 8431 35510 1965 6004 8637 6357 5507 9341 3008 10040 12470 4345 6072 18140 17450 7378 30620 8507 4950 23050 9467 9639 15540 9121 14240 13800 10870 32850 9300 6198 9230 10830 2617 21250 6414 6090 21260 6564 5498 6835 7710 23160 34130 5550 5348 23860 4949 6873 43410 14970 15440 14630 5948 4802 5783 7301 15170 5321 7517 4491 5515 4685 5865 8095 5437 8649 11320 14720 14750 22380 7397 7819 17040 8523 5329 6008 20920 15870 19980 5168 3739 22060 5461 15890 13370 11400 18330 5399 2981 10930 9954 5367 2910 11410 6271 17870 8014 4215 989 28770 16470 5674 4851 5142 25550 25710 24880 22110 17820 7137 7913 5798 7887 4955 8205 6339 8918 4661 4083 6452 14110 29030 17170 4920 8443 24240 6847 8185 24760 6070 5311 6417 10690 6637 5544 12200
2021-04-20 2887 5052 8572 8244 9624 9762 11700 3846 23560 30420 19280 4269 17620 8199 8124 8214 13460 22350 101100 7054 18090 9200 5945 26050 4948 25260 7068 49280 10790 6738 28480 6892 14490 30730 6010 24300 6237 9102 7119 9913 17220 14470 5691 14060 7083 10100 8208 8350 15930 12500 12670 3747 9082 20820 21690 6143 4884 7898 11320 3142 5803 14150 2549 37870 23710 2809 7937 30830 8523 7517 10340 4261 20080 23490 11840 7830 26760 31040 3024 4179 4848 8194 6390 4806 18140 9606 8807 6626 5835 2980 7327 29720 12420 5236 7028 4966 5234 5541 13750 8183 6360 3845 10240 5493 22340 7354 11920 4190 12970 5091 20770 7934 7645 20760 4325 8898 6194 7044 26850 6941 8209 4981 26480 6129 5675 24810 7828 7847 7648 6783 14980 8978 6043 7592 19790 12240 33870 17360 24190 9403 62440 36570 4908 21630 6583 6867 48430 20540 12670 2776 52960 8255 26090 2704 3443 16210 2232 3285 6809 12460 20070 4388 6165 7266 23540 8432 35520 1968 6013 8649 6358 5513 9369 3009 10040 12490 4354 6076 18160 17460 7382 30640 8514 4959 23080 9481 9645 15570 9131 14240 13810 10880 32860 9304 6201 9232 10840 2620 21260 6417 6095 21300 6578 5499 6838 7713 23170 34160 5559 5353 23870 4953 6875 43450 14980 15450 14640 5952 4804 5787 7303 15180 5334 7535 4495 5522 4688 5878 8108 5438 8654 11320 14750 14770 22380 7405 7824 17050 8526 5333 6014 20950 15870 20010 5171 3740 22080 5463 15900 13380 11400 18340 5404 2981 10930 9957 5373 2913 11420 6276 17870 8016 4220 990 28780 16490 5676 4852 5147 25600 25730 24890 22120 17830 7144 7920 5798 7893 4966 8210 6344 8921 4666 4083 6459 14130 29050 17190 4923 8449 24250 6854 8192 24790 6074 5315 6420 10690 6640 5545 12210
2021-04-21 2889 5055 8575 8250 9626 9764 11700 3847 23570 30430 19300 4273 17630 8204 8136 8217 13460 22350 101200 7061 18100 9204 5948 26080 4957 25270 7074 49350 10790 6742 28490 6895 14500 30750 6012 24300 6239 9105 7121 9919 17230 14480 5691 14060 7085 10100 8211 8352 15940 12530 12670 3749 9082 20830 21700 6144 4887 7904 11320 3144 5806 14160 2550 37880 23720 2813 7940 30840 8529 7524 10350 4265 20090 23510 11850 7833 26780 31060 3029 4180 4851 8195 6397 4814 18160 9608 8815 6627 5839 2981 7329 29730 12420 5240 7034 4968 5235 5549 13750 8188 6364 3848 10240 5494 22340 7354 11930 4192 12980 5092 20770 7936 7647 20780 4331 8907 6194 7048 26850 6944 8212 4986 26500 6132 5679 24820 7837 7854 7658 6787 14980 8986 6051 7599 19820 12240 33920 17360 24200 9407 62490 36610 4910 21640 6589 6871 48450 20570 12680 2776 52980 8273 26100 2709 3445 16210 2234 3287 6809 12470 20090 4390 6168 7270 23570 8435 35540 1971 6020 8658 6361 5517 9390 3012 10040 12500 4360 6082 18170 17470 7385 30650 8522 4964 23110 9486 9649 15590 9137 14250 13820 10890 32880 9308 6204 9235 10840 2622 21260 6418 6098 21320 6590 5501 6841 7716 23180 34190 5566 5356 23870 4958 6877 43480 14980 15470 14650 5955 4806 5791 7308 15200 5345 7549 4499 5526 4692 5886 8116 5443 8656 11320 14770 14780 22390 7410 7827 17060 8528 5336 6018 20970 15890 20040 5172 3741 22090 5465 15900 13390 11410 18350 5409 2982 10940 9961 5379 2914 11420 6280 17880 8018 4223 990 28800 16500 5680 4853 5151 25640 25740 24900 22130 17840 7148 7925 5800 7897 4975 8216 6349 8924 4670 4084 6469 14140 29060 17200 4926 8455 24260 6860 8198 24800 6077 5318 6422 10700 6642 5547 12210
2021-04-22 2890 5058 8577 8253 9630 9766 11710 3848 23580 30450 19310 4275 17630 8209 8141 8220 13470 22360 101300 7067 18100 9208 5951 26100 4960 25280 7078 49390 10800 6745 28500 6897 14510 30760 6015 24310 6240 9108 7124 9923 17230 14490 5694 14070 7087 10100 8214 8354 15950 12540 12670 3751 9083 20840 21700 6149 4891 7908 11330 3145 5806 14170 2551 37900 23730 2815 7944 30850 8533 7530 10350 4269 20090 23540 11850 7835 26790 31070 3032 4181 4853 8198 6403 4821 18180 9610 8823 6629 5843 2981 7331 29730 12430 5243 7036 4970 5237 5559 13760 8193 6365 3849 10250 5494 22350 7354 11930 4194 12990 5094 20780 7938 7651 20790 4336 8914 6196 7051 26850 6948 8215 4992 26520 6136 5681 24830 7842 7857 7666 6790 14990 8993 6059 7602 19830 12250 33960 17370 24200 9411 62560 36650 4911 21640 6597 6874 48460 20600 12680 2776 53020 8283 26100 2713 3446 16220 2236 3289 6812 12470 20100 4391 6174 7274 23590 8438 35560 1974 6025 8666 6364 5520 9408 3016 10050 12520 4364 6085 18190 17470 7387 30660 8529 4968 23130 9493 9652 15600 9138 14250 13830 10890 32890 9312 6206 9238 10850 2624 21270 6419 6101 21340 6599 5503 6843 7718 23200 34200 5572 5361 23880 4963 6880 43520 14990 15480 14650 5958 4809 5796 7311 15210 5354 7560 4502 5530 4694 5892 8123 5443 8659 11330 14780 14790 22390 7414 7830 17060 8531 5341 6021 20980 15890 20060 5174 3742 22100 5466 15910 13390 11420 18370 5413 2983 10940 9964 5383 2916 11430 6284 17890 8019 4226 990 28810 16510 5683 4854 5155 25670 25760 24910 22150 17860 7152 7930 5802 7900 4983 8217 6351 8928 4673 4085 6475 14150 29060 17210 4928 8459 24270 6864 8203 24810 6080 5319 6424 10710 6644 5548 12210
2021-04-23 2892 5060 8577 8257 9633 9768 11710 3849 23590 30460 19330 4275 17630 8213 8147 8221 13470 22360 101300 7072 18110 9210 5954 26120 4967 25290 7082 49450 10800 6748 28510 6897 14520 30770 6016 24310 6242 9110 7125 9926 17240 14500 5697 14070 7088 10110 8214 8356 15960 12560 12680 3753 9086 20850 21700 6153 4893 7914 11330 3146 5812 14180 2552 37910 23750 2818 7947 30860 8537 7537 10360 4273 20100 23560 11860 7838 26800 31080 3036 4183 4854 8200 6409 4827 18200 9612 8827 6633 5847 2982 7333 29740 12430 5245 7038 4972 5239 5565 13760 8199 6366 3851 10250 5495 22350 7354 11930 4195 12990 5095 20780 7940 7654 20810 4340 8921 6196 7054 26860 6951 8215 4998 26530 6139 5684 24850 7846 7860 7671 6793 15000 9000 6066 7609 19860 12260 34000 17370 24210 9414 62630 36680 4912 21650 6604 6878 48470 20630 12680 2777 53050 8290 26110 2717 3449 16220 2238 3291 6816 12480 20110 4393 6177 7276 23610 8441 35570 1976 6027 8674 6369 5523 9425 3016 10060 12530 4369 6087 18200 17480 7390 30680 8534 4972 23150 9503 9655 15620 9140 14260 13830 10900 32900 9317 6208 9240 10850 2625 21280 6420 6103 21370 6609 5505 6845 7720 23210 34210 5576 5365 23890 4968 6882 43570 15000 15500 14660 5960 4811 5800 7312 15220 5360 7571 4505 5534 4697 5897 8128 5445 8660 11330 14790 14790 22400 7417 7834 17070 8533 5347 6025 21000 15890 20080 5176 3743 22110 5468 15910 13390 11430 18380 5417 2984 10950 9968 5387 2917 11430 6287 17890 8022 4228 990 28820 16520 5684 4855 5159 25690 25770 24920 22160 17870 7155 7935 5805 7903 4990 8219 6355 8931 4677 4085 6480 14150 29060 17220 4930 8463 24280 6869 8207 24830 6083 5321 6426 10710 6646 5548 12220
2021-04-24 2893 5062 8577 8258 9634 9770 11720 3851 23600 30480 19340 4276 17640 8217 8150 8222 13480 22360 101400 7077 18120 9212 5956 26130 4969 25290 7086 49490 10800 6750 28530 6898 14520 30780 6017 24310 6243 9112 7127 9931 17250 14510 5702 14080 7090 10110 8214 8358 15970 12570 12680 3754 9090 20860 21700 6155 4894 7920 11340 3147 5812 14180 2553 37920 23750 2821 7949 30870 8541 7538 10360 4277 20110 23580 11860 7840 26810 31090 3038 4183 4856 8202 6414 4832 18200 9612 8832 6633 5851 2982 7335 29750 12430 5247 7038 4974 5240 5571 13770 8199 6369 3851 10250 5497 22360 7356 11930 4197 13000 5097 20790 7942 7658 20820 4344 8927 6197 7057 26860 6955 8217 4999 26550 6141 5687 24860 7850 7860 7674 6795 15000 9007 6072 7613 19870 12260 34030 17380 24220 9414 62650 36700 4914 21650 6607 6881 48480 20650 12680 2777 53070 8293 26110 2721 3450 16230 2239 3294 6818 12490 20130 4394 6178 7277 23630 8445 35590 1979 6031 8680 6369 5525 9440 3017 10060 12530 4372 6090 18210 17480 7391 30690 8538 4975 23170 9505 9658 15630 9141 14260 13840 10900 32920 9319 6210 9242 10860 2626 21280 6421 6105 21380 6617 5506 6847 7722 23210 34220 5580 5366 23900 4973 6884 43580 15010 15510 14670 5960 4814 5804 7312 15220 5361 7581 4507 5537 4700 5901 8133 5445 8664 11330 14800 14800 22400 7420 7837 17070 8535 5348 6027 21010 15900 20090 5176 3744 22120 5469 15910 13390 11430 18390 5418 2986 10950 9972 5389 2918 11430 6291 17900 8023 4230 990 28830 16520 5686 4856 5162 25710 25780 24920 22170 17870 7158 7940 5806 7905 4997 8221 6356 8935 4681 4086 6486 14160 29060 17220 4932 8467 24290 6873 8210 24830 6085 5322 6428 10720 6648 5550 12220
2021-04-25 2894 5064 8579 8261 9637 9773 11720 3852 23610 30490 19350 4278 17640 8220 8154 8227 13480 22370 101400 7082 18120 9214 5958 26150 4974 25300 7090 49520 10800 6753 28540 6901 14520 30790 6017 24310 6245 9114 7132 9934 17250 14520 5708 14080 7091 10120 8214 8360 15970 12590 12680 3756 9095 20870 21710 6158 4897 7925 11340 3148 5816 14190 2554 37930 23760 2823 7952 30870 8545 7543 10360 4281 20120 23620 11870 7843 26820 31100 3041 4184 4858 8205 6419 4836 18220 9613 8837 6635 5855 2983 7337 29750 12430 5249 7042 4976 5241 5577 13770 8206 6371 3852 10250 5503 22360 7359 11930 4198 13000 5100 20790 7943 7662 20830 4348 8932 6197 7059 26860 6958 8221 5000 26570 6144 5691 24870 7855 7865 7678 6797 15010 9013 6078 7616 19880 12270 34050 17380 24220 9418 62690 36720 4915 21660 6609 6884 48490 20680 12690 2780 53110 8298 26120 2724 3451 16230 2241 3296 6823 12490 20140 4396 6182 7283 23650 8449 35600 1982 6037 8687 6371 5527 9455 3018 10070 12540 4375 6095 18230 17490 7393 30700 8543 4978 23190 9510 9661 15640 9147 14270 13840 10910 32930 9324 6212 9244 10860 2628 21290 6423 6107 21390 6626 5508 6848 7724 23220 34240 5584 5370 23900 4978 6887 43620 15020 15520 14670 5962 4816 5809 7314 15230 5365 7590 4511 5540 4703 5905 8137 5446 8666 11330 14810 14800 22410 7422 7840 17070 8537 5351 6030 21020 15910 20110 5176 3746 22130 5470 15920 13390 11440 18390 5423 2988 10960 9975 5391 2920 11440 6294 17900 8026 4232 992 28840 16530 5690 4857 5166 25730 25790 24930 22180 17880 7161 7944 5808 7907 5004 8224 6360 8937 4684 4086 6487 14170 29080 17230 4934 8471 24300 6877 8214 24840 6088 5324 6429 10720 6650 5551 12220

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-04-19 to 2021-04-25

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-04-18 2884 5045 8563 8228 9601 9760 11681 3844 23542 30383 19249 4263 17614 8188 8114 8207 13443 22331 100982 7040 18083 9193 5938 26002 4926 25246 7058 49058 10790 6730 28461 6888 14478 30705 6008 24298 6233 9096 7117 9902 17203 14443 5685 14045 7078 10085 8204 8345 15905 12463 12660 3743 9077 20814 21675 6133 4879 7871 11310 3140 5788 14142 2548 37846 23674 2803 7930 30814 8513 7494 10333 4253 20064 23430 11826 7823 26729 30995 3014 4176 4847 8191 6373 4788 18098 9596 8799 6625 5823 2980 7322 29702 12418 5229 7018 4962 5231 5530 13730 8163 6356 3841 10237 5492 22331 7350 11920 4186 12965 5088 20758 7929 7639 20730 4313 8880 6193 7036 26845 6933 8203 4970 26443 6121 5673 24776 7820 7832 7621 6776 14961 8961 6025 7582 19733 12218 33775 17348 24175 9389 62313 36447 4905 21619 6571 6859 48391 20468 12671 2774 52893 8205 26081 2693 3437 16194 2227 3280 6807 12440 20036 4384 6157 7261 23489 8427 35492 1962 5997 8630 6356 5505 9327 3008 10037 12457 4342 6066 18126 17436 7376 30606 8496 4948 23030 9453 9636 15507 9111 14229 13797 10866 32835 9293 6196 9227 10814 2616 21244 6412 6088 21208 6555 5496 6833 7708 23136 34097 5546 5340 23847 4943 6871 43358 14967 15420 14626 5943 4799 5778 7301 15152 5301 7507 4486 5512 4682 5862 8091 5434 8645 11316 14688 14746 22377 7395 7816 17031 8521 5327 6005 20890 15847 19965 5164 3738 22037 5460 15885 13361 11387 18322 5396 2979 10929 9950 5358 2909 11409 6267 17860 8012 4213 989 28759 16452 5674 4850 5138 25467 25685 24870 22101 17803 7134 7908 5798 7885 4948 8198 6335 8911 4657 4082 6443 14104 29011 17153 4918 8439 24230 6843 8181 24732 6067 5306 6415 10679 6635 5542 12198
2021-04-19 2885 5046 8564 8234 9605 9762 11690 3846 23550 30400 19270 4264 17620 8193 8119 8210 13450 22340 101000 7046 18090 9195 5942 26030 4932 25250 7061 49110 10790 6731 28480 6890 14480 30720 6008 24300 6235 9098 7119 9905 17210 14450 5693 14050 7080 10090 8205 8347 15910 12470 12660 3746 9082 20820 21680 6136 4882 7877 11310 3143 5790 14150 2550 37860 23690 2806 7931 30820 8518 7498 10340 4257 20070 23470 11830 7824 26740 31020 3017 4179 4849 8194 6376 4791 18110 9596 8804 6626 5830 2981 7325 29710 12420 5230 7021 4964 5232 5537 13730 8167 6359 3843 10240 5495 22340 7354 11920 4188 12970 5090 20760 7931 7644 20740 4315 8885 6194 7038 26850 6937 8205 4974 26460 6124 5675 24790 7825 7836 7629 6778 14970 8967 6031 7590 19750 12230 33820 17350 24180 9393 62360 36480 4906 21620 6573 6861 48400 20490 12680 2775 52930 8215 26090 2697 3440 16200 2229 3283 6809 12450 20050 4386 6159 7264 23510 8433 35510 1965 5999 8637 6358 5507 9339 3009 10040 12460 4345 6068 18140 17440 7377 30620 8503 4951 23040 9459 9638 15520 9117 14230 13800 10870 32850 9297 6198 9230 10820 2617 21260 6413 6091 21230 6561 5499 6835 7710 23150 34120 5550 5345 23850 4950 6874 43390 14970 15430 14630 5944 4802 5781 7303 15160 5308 7514 4490 5513 4684 5867 8095 5437 8647 11320 14700 14750 22380 7397 7819 17040 8523 5329 6007 20900 15860 19980 5166 3740 22040 5461 15890 13360 11400 18330 5398 2981 10940 9955 5362 2910 11410 6270 17860 8015 4214 990 28770 16460 5676 4851 5142 25500 25700 24880 22110 17810 7137 7912 5800 7887 4953 8200 6337 8914 4660 4085 6447 14110 29020 17160 4919 8444 24240 6846 8185 24740 6071 5308 6415 10690 6637 5543 12200
2021-04-20 2886 5049 8566 8239 9608 9764 11700 3847 23560 30420 19290 4265 17620 8197 8123 8214 13450 22340 101100 7052 18090 9198 5945 26040 4940 25260 7066 49170 10790 6734 28490 6893 14490 30730 6009 24310 6236 9101 7121 9908 17220 14460 5697 14060 7080 10100 8206 8349 15920 12480 12660 3748 9083 20830 21690 6141 4885 7884 11320 3145 5796 14160 2550 37870 23700 2808 7935 30830 8523 7503 10340 4261 20080 23490 11840 7825 26750 31030 3020 4180 4849 8197 6381 4795 18120 9601 8808 6627 5834 2981 7326 29720 12420 5232 7025 4966 5233 5542 13740 8172 6361 3844 10240 5496 22340 7355 11930 4189 12980 5091 20770 7933 7647 20740 4317 8891 6195 7041 26860 6940 8208 4978 26480 6127 5677 24810 7826 7839 7633 6782 14970 8973 6038 7594 19760 12230 33850 17360 24190 9396 62410 36520 4907 21630 6575 6863 48420 20520 12680 2776 52970 8227 26090 2701 3442 16210 2231 3285 6811 12450 20060 4387 6163 7267 23520 8435 35530 1965 6004 8643 6359 5509 9354 3010 10050 12470 4348 6070 18160 17450 7379 30630 8508 4955 23060 9468 9640 15530 9122 14240 13810 10880 32860 9300 6200 9232 10830 2618 21270 6415 6093 21260 6567 5500 6836 7712 23160 34130 5554 5347 23860 4955 6876 43430 14970 15440 14630 5946 4806 5785 7304 15170 5316 7523 4492 5516 4688 5873 8102 5439 8649 11320 14720 14760 22390 7400 7824 17040 8525 5332 6010 20910 15860 19990 5168 3741 22050 5462 15890 13370 11400 18330 5400 2982 10940 9956 5368 2911 11420 6274 17870 8016 4216 991 28780 16470 5678 4852 5144 25520 25710 24890 22120 17820 7140 7916 5801 7888 4961 8203 6341 8914 4661 4087 6449 14130 29030 17180 4921 8447 24240 6849 8189 24750 6073 5310 6417 10690 6638 5544 12210
2021-04-21 2887 5051 8567 8245 9608 9766 11710 3848 23570 30430 19310 4267 17620 8200 8131 8217 13460 22350 101100 7057 18100 9200 5947 26060 4946 25270 7071 49230 10790 6738 28500 6895 14490 30740 6010 24310 6237 9103 7122 9911 17230 14460 5701 14060 7081 10100 8207 8350 15920 12480 12670 3750 9085 20830 21690 6144 4887 7887 11320 3147 5799 14160 2551 37880 23710 2810 7938 30840 8527 7507 10340 4264 20080 23510 11850 7826 26750 31050 3023 4181 4852 8199 6384 4798 18140 9604 8813 6628 5838 2981 7328 29720 12420 5234 7029 4968 5234 5550 13740 8175 6364 3845 10240 5498 22340 7356 11930 4190 12980 5093 20770 7935 7652 20750 4319 8896 6196 7043 26860 6943 8210 4982 26500 6129 5680 24820 7831 7844 7640 6785 14980 8980 6044 7601 19780 12240 33890 17360 24200 9397 62450 36550 4909 21630 6576 6864 48430 20540 12680 2777 52990 8240 26100 2705 3444 16210 2233 3287 6812 12460 20070 4389 6166 7268 23540 8438 35540 1966 6009 8648 6361 5510 9368 3013 10050 12480 4350 6073 18170 17460 7380 30640 8514 4958 23080 9472 9643 15550 9125 14240 13810 10880 32880 9303 6201 9234 10830 2620 21280 6416 6095 21280 6572 5501 6837 7715 23160 34140 5558 5349 23870 4959 6878 43460 14980 15460 14640 5948 4808 5788 7307 15170 5324 7533 4496 5519 4690 5878 8107 5442 8650 11320 14730 14760 22390 7402 7828 17050 8526 5335 6012 20920 15860 20000 5171 3742 22060 5464 15900 13370 11410 18340 5402 2982 10950 9958 5373 2912 11420 6278 17870 8017 4217 991 28780 16470 5680 4853 5146 25550 25720 24890 22130 17820 7142 7921 5802 7890 4968 8207 6344 8916 4663 4089 6455 14140 29040 17180 4922 8451 24250 6851 8195 24760 6077 5312 6418 10700 6640 5546 12210
2021-04-22 2888 5054 8568 8248 9610 9767 11710 3849 23580 30450 19330 4268 17630 8202 8136 8220 13460 22350 101100 7062 18100 9203 5949 26080 4951 25280 7075 49270 10790 6739 28510 6897 14490 30760 6011 24310 6238 9105 7124 9914 17230 14470 5706 14060 7082 10110 8209 8352 15930 12490 12670 3751 9087 20840 21700 6147 4890 7891 11320 3148 5801 14170 2552 37890 23720 2813 7941 30850 8530 7512 10350 4267 20090 23530 11860 7826 26760 31060 3025 4182 4854 8201 6387 4801 18150 9606 8819 6629 5841 2982 7329 29730 12430 5236 7031 4970 5235 5560 13750 8177 6366 3846 10250 5498 22350 7357 11930 4191 12990 5094 20770 7937 7656 20760 4321 8901 6197 7044 26870 6947 8213 4986 26510 6131 5681 24830 7834 7847 7644 6787 14980 8985 6050 7605 19790 12250 33920 17360 24210 9400 62510 36580 4910 21640 6579 6865 48440 20560 12680 2777 53030 8249 26110 2709 3446 16220 2235 3289 6814 12460 20090 4390 6170 7271 23550 8441 35550 1967 6013 8653 6363 5511 9382 3017 10060 12490 4352 6074 18180 17460 7381 30660 8520 4961 23100 9478 9645 15560 9127 14240 13820 10890 32890 9306 6203 9236 10830 2621 21290 6417 6097 21300 6578 5502 6838 7717 23170 34150 5560 5351 23880 4964 6880 43500 14980 15470 14640 5950 4811 5791 7310 15180 5330 7540 4498 5522 4693 5882 8111 5443 8651 11320 14740 14770 22400 7404 7831 17050 8528 5339 6014 20930 15870 20010 5173 3744 22070 5466 15900 13380 11410 18350 5404 2984 10950 9960 5377 2913 11420 6281 17880 8018 4218 991 28790 16480 5682 4853 5148 25560 25730 24900 22150 17830 7144 7925 5804 7892 4976 8209 6345 8917 4664 4091 6457 14150 29050 17190 4923 8455 24250 6853 8198 24770 6079 5313 6419 10700 6642 5546 12210
2021-04-23 2889 5056 8569 8252 9612 9769 11720 3851 23580 30460 19340 4269 17630 8205 8141 8221 13470 22360 101200 7066 18110 9204 5951 26090 4957 25280 7079 49330 10790 6741 28520 6899 14500 30760 6012 24320 6239 9108 7125 9917 17240 14470 5711 14070 7083 10110 8210 8353 15940 12490 12670 3753 9089 20850 21700 6151 4892 7895 11330 3150 5808 14180 2553 37910 23730 2815 7943 30850 8534 7517 10350 4271 20090 23550 11860 7827 26770 31070 3028 4183 4855 8203 6390 4803 18160 9610 8823 6631 5845 2982 7331 29730 12430 5237 7033 4972 5237 5565 13750 8181 6368 3848 10250 5499 22350 7359 11930 4192 12990 5096 20780 7939 7659 20770 4322 8907 6198 7046 26870 6949 8214 4992 26530 6133 5683 24850 7837 7850 7649 6789 14990 8991 6056 7611 19800 12250 33960 17370 24210 9401 62570 36620 4911 21640 6581 6867 48440 20570 12690 2777 53060 8258 26110 2712 3448 16220 2236 3291 6817 12470 20100 4392 6173 7273 23560 8445 35570 1968 6015 8658 6364 5512 9395 3017 10060 12500 4354 6076 18200 17470 7382 30670 8524 4964 23110 9487 9647 15570 9130 14250 13820 10900 32900 9310 6204 9238 10840 2622 21310 6418 6099 21320 6583 5504 6839 7719 23190 34160 5563 5354 23880 4968 6882 43540 14990 15480 14650 5951 4814 5795 7311 15180 5337 7547 4501 5524 4696 5886 8115 5447 8651 11330 14760 14770 22400 7405 7835 17060 8530 5344 6016 20950 15870 20020 5176 3745 22070 5467 15910 13380 11420 18360 5406 2985 10950 9962 5381 2914 11420 6284 17880 8020 4219 992 28800 16480 5683 4854 5150 25580 25750 24910 22160 17840 7145 7929 5806 7893 4982 8210 6349 8918 4666 4092 6459 14160 29060 17200 4924 8460 24260 6855 8201 24780 6081 5315 6421 10710 6643 5546 12220
2021-04-24 2890 5058 8570 8255 9614 9770 11720 3852 23590 30470 19360 4269 17630 8207 8145 8223 13470 22360 101200 7070 18120 9206 5952 26110 4962 25290 7083 49380 10800 6742 28540 6900 14500 30770 6012 24320 6240 9110 7128 9921 17240 14480 5717 14070 7084 10120 8210 8354 15940 12500 12670 3755 9090 20850 21710 6154 4894 7898 11330 3152 5814 14180 2554 37920 23740 2817 7946 30860 8537 7522 10350 4274 20100 23570 11870 7827 26780 31080 3030 4183 4856 8204 6394 4806 18170 9614 8827 6632 5847 2982 7332 29740 12430 5238 7035 4973 5239 5570 13750 8182 6370 3849 10250 5500 22350 7360 11930 4193 13000 5097 20780 7940 7662 20770 4323 8911 6199 7048 26880 6951 8216 4995 26550 6135 5685 24860 7840 7852 7653 6791 14990 8996 6061 7615 19810 12260 34000 17370 24220 9403 62600 36640 4912 21640 6582 6868 48450 20590 12690 2778 53090 8268 26110 2715 3450 16230 2238 3294 6819 12470 20110 4393 6175 7276 23580 8447 35590 1968 6019 8662 6366 5513 9408 3017 10060 12500 4356 6078 18210 17480 7383 30680 8528 4967 23130 9492 9648 15580 9133 14250 13830 10900 32920 9313 6205 9240 10840 2624 21310 6419 6100 21330 6588 5505 6840 7721 23190 34170 5565 5355 23890 4973 6884 43570 14990 15490 14660 5953 4816 5797 7312 15190 5343 7552 4503 5527 4698 5888 8119 5447 8652 11330 14770 14780 22400 7407 7838 17060 8532 5345 6018 20950 15870 20030 5178 3746 22080 5468 15910 13380 11420 18360 5407 2986 10960 9963 5385 2916 11420 6287 17880 8020 4220 992 28800 16480 5684 4855 5152 25600 25760 24910 22170 17850 7146 7932 5806 7894 4988 8213 6350 8920 4667 4093 6461 14160 29060 17210 4926 8464 24260 6857 8204 24780 6083 5317 6421 10720 6645 5547 12220
2021-04-25 2891 5060 8571 8259 9617 9772 11730 3853 23600 30480 19380 4271 17640 8210 8151 8227 13480 22360 101200 7074 18120 9208 5954 26120 4968 25300 7086 49430 10800 6743 28550 6902 14500 30780 6013 24320 6240 9112 7131 9923 17250 14490 5723 14080 7085 10120 8211 8356 15950 12500 12670 3757 9092 20860 21710 6157 4896 7902 11330 3153 5820 14190 2555 37920 23750 2819 7949 30870 8541 7528 10360 4277 20110 23590 11880 7828 26790 31100 3032 4184 4857 8206 6397 4809 18180 9617 8831 6632 5851 2983 7334 29750 12430 5239 7038 4975 5240 5576 13760 8185 6372 3850 10250 5502 22360 7362 11930 4193 13000 5098 20780 7942 7667 20780 4324 8916 6200 7049 26880 6955 8219 4998 26560 6137 5687 24870 7843 7857 7657 6793 15000 9001 6067 7617 19830 12260 34030 17380 24220 9404 62630 36680 4913 21650 6583 6869 48460 20610 12690 2780 53120 8278 26120 2718 3453 16240 2239 3296 6821 12480 20120 4394 6178 7277 23590 8450 35600 1969 6025 8667 6367 5514 9421 3017 10070 12510 4358 6080 18220 17490 7384 30690 8533 4969 23140 9497 9650 15590 9136 14250 13830 10910 32930 9317 6206 9241 10850 2625 21330 6420 6102 21350 6593 5506 6841 7723 23200 34180 5567 5356 23890 4978 6886 43610 14990 15500 14660 5955 4819 5802 7313 15200 5349 7558 4506 5532 4701 5891 8123 5449 8653 11330 14790 14780 22410 7408 7841 17070 8533 5347 6021 20970 15880 20030 5181 3746 22090 5469 15910 13380 11430 18370 5409 2987 10960 9965 5389 2917 11430 6290 17890 8021 4222 993 28810 16490 5686 4856 5154 25620 25770 24920 22180 17850 7148 7936 5807 7895 4995 8217 6353 8922 4669 4094 6461 14170 29080 17220 4927 8467 24270 6859 8207 24790 6085 5318 6421 10720 6646 5547 12220

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.