COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-04-20 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-04-20

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-04-20

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-3012-2712-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3012-2712-2112-2812-2712-272021-01-032021-01-072021-01-0111-1512-2812-2210-2912-2212-2712-2712-1312-2712-2712-2512-2112-2712-2212-3012-3012-2711-0312-2112-2712-2512-0812-2712-2112-212021-01-0412-2212-2912-2612-2212-212021-01-0412-2112-212021-01-0212-2612-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-3012-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-212021-01-022021-02-2510-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-2412-3012-2412-2111-0212-2610-3112-2712-2912-2812-2112-2512-2212-2612-1412-232021-01-0609-2712-2312-2812-1812-252021-01-0412-2712-2612-2112-2712-2212-2112-2712-2112-2712-2212-2112-2112-2112-2212-2712-2712-2212-2212-1312-2712-1312-2812-2112-2912-2712-2812-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2212-2812-2812-2510-2812-2110-2712-2712-2912-3012-2712-2812-2112-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2312-212021-01-0412-302021-01-0312-2211-042021-01-0712-2112-2112-2112-2212-2512-2212-2612-2812-292021-01-0311-0412-2812-0812-2710-2512-2612-2111-0412-2112-2911-0312-212021-01-0412-2712-2112-3012-2912-2112-2712-2812-2712-2712-312021-01-0612-292021-01-0212-2912-212021-01-062021-01-0612-2212-2812-2112-2712-2812-1312-3112-1310-1712-3012-2712-2712-252021-01-2612-2812-2912-292021-01-0312-2112-3112-2912-2412-2712-3012-2512-2712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0912-2412-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-212021-01-0312-2510-3112-2212-2812-2111-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-212021-03-1512-2512-2812-3012-2312-3012-3112-2712-2112-2612-2112-1912-1212-2312-3012-2112-2212-2812-2212-2612-2110-2812-2812-2712-1812-2512-2112-2212-2212-2112-2712-2512-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2712-2712-2912-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-3012-2112-3012-3012-30
Peak daily increment 61 87 97 180 109 172 178 78 480 587 191 59 326 131 108 108 232 424 1250 70 158 67 58 158 49 485 141 441 228 107 524 154 310 317 107 505 94 189 62 123 123 141 97 255 87 149 171 173 301 89 263 52 200 250 283 61 90 71 66 244 53 95 285 35 367 289 38 184 598 151 69 189 72 245 26 249 187 118 322 539 60 51 76 160 110 52 224 102 164 146 108 54 143 588 271 94 74 76 89 73 125 53 38 122 80 92 56 180 90 449 120 220 59 199 57 398 176 104 338 101 110 135 121 478 101 159 47 444 57 116 450 139 84 134 236 275 148 71 99 296 197 360 310 429 107 380 287 104 444 72 111 735 271 199 90 37 377 89 418 29 46 297 49 62 148 119 362 79 105 63 123 85 724 23 50 159 105 51 109 59 123 121 41 55 277 158 122 225 89 44 125 127 109 154 117 203 103 174 621 83 81 174 52 187 40 133 139 56 96 198 80 86 59 174 36 26 163 450 42 82 403 65 130 244 209 245 167 98 107 101 69 180 27 42 85 83 96 80 109 80 67 103 113 247 294 456 131 152 218 93 57 112 178 132 194 66 42 202 106 320 17 181 125 55 108 46 139 321 91 45 138 123 369 138 49 11 558 153 92 107 85 258 324 450 387 229 76 136 117 159 65 154 87 28 83 42 67 115 217 219 263 84 148 429 106 139 375 106 114 95 173 71 69 187
Days since peak 114 111 114 120 114 133 120 118 115 118 189 114 118 113 99 111 114 120 113 114 114 107 103 109 156 113 119 173 119 114 114 128 114 114 116 120 114 119 111 111 114 168 120 114 116 133 114 120 120 106 119 112 115 119 120 106 120 120 108 115 114 113 112 119 119 111 113 114 114 120 116 120 120 108 54 188 114 134 115 114 117 111 117 120 169 115 171 114 112 113 120 116 119 115 127 118 104 205 118 113 123 116 106 114 115 120 114 119 120 114 120 114 119 120 120 120 119 114 114 119 119 128 114 128 113 120 112 114 113 117 116 120 109 113 114 119 113 113 116 174 120 175 114 112 111 114 113 120 114 114 142 114 114 118 120 106 111 107 119 167 103 120 120 120 119 116 119 115 113 112 107 167 113 133 114 177 115 120 167 120 112 168 120 106 114 120 111 112 120 114 113 114 114 110 104 112 108 112 120 104 104 119 113 120 114 113 128 110 128 185 111 114 114 116 84 113 112 112 107 120 110 112 117 114 111 116 114 120 119 120 113 115 116 106 119 162 117 119 121 107 113 114 119 120 127 113 115 120 107 116 171 119 113 120 170 120 118 119 114 120 36 116 113 111 118 111 110 114 120 115 120 122 129 118 111 120 119 113 119 115 120 174 113 114 123 116 120 119 119 120 114 116 121 128 113 134 119 114 114 112 112 119 119 113 114 119 114 109 113 111 120 111 111 111
Last total 2887 5049 8571 8233 9612 9765 11696 3846 23561 30419 19301 4264 17619 8195 8132 8210 13451 22350 101077 7051 18096 9198 5945 26037 4934 25259 7063 49173 10798 6739 28499 6896 14491 30735 6014 24315 6236 9097 7120 9912 17215 14461 5711 14065 7080 10098 8206 8345 15916 12481 12664 3747 9090 20836 21693 6136 4879 4253 7885 11318 3144 5799 14158 2552 37879 23703 2814 7935 30844 8526 7506 10339 4256 20080 2975 23488 11835 7827 26742 31036 3015 4180 4852 8195 6386 4793 18143 9606 8812 6627 5827 2983 7328 29729 12423 5232 7021 4967 5236 5547 8056 3082 4777 13749 8167 6370 3850 10245 5494 22353 7360 11924 4187 12990 5100 20771 7932 7643 20752 4322 8888 6194 7045 26860 6942 8208 4977 26483 6139 5680 24810 7827 7839 7639 6785 14969 8983 6039 7595 19763 12231 33882 17357 24205 9400 62423 36515 4910 21633 6575 6864 48407 20503 12677 3755 2777 52978 8222 26093 2695 3446 16216 2229 3284 6816 12450 20051 4390 6163 7272 23520 8436 35525 1964 6005 8640 6366 5512 9357 3010 10054 12469 4345 6073 18164 17452 7385 30632 8512 4950 23059 9460 9650 15540 9124 14243 13808 10885 32852 9302 6200 9235 4579 10826 2618 21264 6417 6090 4872 21261 6570 5500 6842 7715 1649 1877 23167 34133 5558 5350 23869 4971 6873 43444 14978 15440 14641 5952 4802 5792 7306 15169 1642 5313 7511 4489 5516 4683 5871 8097 5440 8650 11329 14720 14758 22400 7400 7822 17042 8528 5332 6012 20916 15861 20015 5167 3740 22053 5466 15898 13365 11409 18345 5401 5529 2984 10940 9957 5367 2912 11421 6276 17870 8020 4213 990 28792 16481 5678 4853 5143 25528 25713 24887 22136 17817 7141 7917 5811 7894 4955 8208 6346 1169 8916 4665 4086 6460 14146 29038 17173 4924 8451 24244 6853 8201 24756 6072 5309 6420 10688 6641 5558 12215
Last daily increment 1 0 1 2 1 1 6 1 6 19 19 0 1 2 12 3 4 10 30 5 5 3 2 6 3 5 1 59 1 2 12 4 4 12 4 5 0 0 2 5 4 11 9 11 0 6 1 0 6 6 1 2 3 5 3 1 0 8 5 1 1 2 6 1 22 8 6 2 9 5 4 0 1 5 1 32 2 2 5 20 0 2 2 2 9 4 18 1 7 1 3 0 0 5 0 2 0 2 2 8 0 0 1 8 3 4 2 2 2 10 0 2 1 9 7 5 2 3 15 3 3 0 2 7 2 1 2 10 6 6 8 5 3 5 4 3 7 10 7 13 5 48 3 7 6 52 29 1 5 2 5 5 18 3 0 1 42 5 3 1 5 8 1 1 3 6 10 0 4 4 7 2 9 2 3 6 4 4 14 2 6 2 1 2 21 9 4 14 7 2 13 2 11 13 6 1 3 4 6 6 1 1 0 2 2 13 3 1 2 23 7 2 5 3 0 1 15 15 6 2 7 21 2 36 7 7 7 4 1 3 1 4 1 3 3 1 1 1 4 1 4 3 4 14 3 11 1 3 8 5 2 3 12 4 27 0 1 5 3 7 1 8 17 5 2 3 5 2 2 1 2 2 6 7 0 0 11 10 3 1 3 31 14 5 14 9 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 0 4 4 3 9 14 12 11 4 3 7 2 8 13 1 0 2 4 3 13 8
Last week 9 10 11 14 16 15 36 10 57 84 119 5 13 27 42 14 27 40 242 24 31 15 17 116 25 41 15 248 16 16 104 13 35 93 14 31 11 7 13 24 43 54 54 46 11 28 6 7 44 40 15 8 40 57 39 20 12 17 32 21 11 25 59 10 95 82 25 17 48 30 28 15 18 49 7 182 43 7 59 98 6 12 13 20 30 13 107 15 38 11 27 7 19 65 19 13 11 14 10 50 6 6 5 31 18 22 13 15 13 46 35 11 7 58 24 38 9 22 61 19 34 6 16 36 27 13 21 103 29 24 89 27 16 33 16 24 48 31 31 82 31 240 26 60 22 314 170 10 41 17 15 50 99 22 0 7 234 31 30 10 14 48 7 14 24 35 45 11 22 28 88 37 94 11 23 24 21 15 80 12 49 34 11 16 101 45 14 69 35 11 71 29 21 78 27 29 38 36 71 24 12 18 3 29 5 64 9 13 7 115 39 15 16 13 5 5 68 113 23 30 50 59 11 235 42 73 41 15 12 30 13 42 8 32 31 14 11 10 18 13 18 15 25 67 18 53 10 13 26 15 22 14 64 37 88 9 11 41 13 30 13 56 66 16 6 19 42 29 20 8 21 23 23 17 5 5 71 51 17 10 25 141 71 42 86 42 16 27 24 12 27 13 19 3 15 21 18 29 65 66 60 11 34 35 23 28 54 13 8 9 40 10 19 36
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1910-1110-2410-12 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1210-28 -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --11-02 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-2511-02 --10-31 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-29 --10-0709-2706-14 -- -- -- --09-28 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-25 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- --11-0310-26 --10-1310-13 --10-18 --10-11 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-0211-01 --09-30 -- --09-2911-01 -- -- -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-06 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- --12-07 --10-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-17 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-05 -- -- -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 --11-03 --10-1311-0310-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 62 29 78 72 95 164 99 54 233 136 55 71 321 57 70 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 68 293 144 20 165 29 57 31 32 55 41 129 71 25 71 31 56 65 43 52 59 152 86 540 75 529 611 61 73 391 51 58 68 608 256 82 102 95 43 41 42 196 64 43 67 237 232 85 183 435 113 65 24 70 76 118 183 125 31 127 188 177 46 90 48 138 134 58 91 320 137 38 31 65 41 130
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 10 54 28 18 62 34 27 21 81 19 33 55 9 32 16 55 18 31 13 105 70 9 53 7 19 15 8 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 24 18 11 14 21 20 23 154 15 57 135 19 34 54 14 16 7 70 57 17 40 25 13 12 21 62 22 19 14 48 91 18 25 119 34 22 11 28 24 29 46 48 9 58 7 33 16 31 7 27 34 21 19 77 21 9 11 18 13 16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-04-21 to 2021-04-27

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-04-20 2887 5049 8571 8233 9612 9765 11696 3846 23561 30419 19301 17619 8195 8132 8210 13451 22350 101077 7051 18096 9198 5945 26037 4934 25259 7063 49173 10798 6739 28499 6896 14491 30735 6014 24315 6236 9097 7120 9912 17215 14461 5711 14065 7080 10098 8206 8345 15916 12481 12664 3747 9090 20836 21693 6136 4879 4253 7885 11318 3144 5799 14158 2552 37879 23703 2814 7935 30844 8526 7506 10339 4256 20080 2975 23488 11835 7827 26742 31036 3015 4180 4852 8195 6386 4793 18143 9606 8812 6627 5827 2983 7328 29729 12423 5232 7021 4967 5236 5547 8056 3082 13749 8167 6370 3850 10245 5494 22353 7360 11924 4187 12990 5100 20771 7932 7643 20752 4322 8888 6194 7045 26860 6942 8208 4977 26483 6139 5680 24810 7827 7839 7639 6785 14969 8983 6039 7595 19763 12231 33882 17357 24205 9400 62423 36515 4910 21633 6575 6864 48407 20503 12677 2777 52978 8222 26093 2695 3446 16216 2229 3284 6816 12450 20051 4390 6163 7272 23520 8436 35525 1964 6005 8640 6366 5512 9357 3010 10054 12469 4345 6073 18164 17452 7385 30632 8512 4950 23059 9460 9650 15540 9124 14243 13808 10885 32852 9302 6200 9235 10826 21264 6417 6090 4872 21261 6570 5500 6842 7715 23167 34133 5558 5350 23869 4971 6873 43444 14978 15440 14641 5952 4802 5792 7306 15169 1642 5313 7511 4489 5516 4683 5871 8097 5440 8650 11329 14720 14758 22400 7400 7822 17042 8528 5332 6012 20916 15861 20015 5167 3740 22053 5466 15898 13365 11409 18345 5401 5529 2984 10940 9957 5367 2912 11421 6276 17870 8020 28792 16481 5678 4853 5143 25528 25713 24887 22136 17817 7141 7917 5811 7894 4955 8208 6346 8916 4665 4086 6460 14146 29038 17173 4924 8451 24244 6853 8201 24756 6072 5309 6420 10688 6641 5558 12215
2021-04-21 2888 5051 8572 8246 9622 9766 11710 3847 23570 30440 19330 17630 8198 8137 8215 13460 22360 101100 7056 18100 9201 5948 26070 4949 25270 7073 49300 10800 6746 28500 6898 14500 30750 6014 24320 6238 9099 7120 9912 17230 14480 5718 14070 7081 10100 8207 8347 15920 12490 12670 3749 9090 20840 21710 6140 4883 4253 7891 11320 3146 5805 14160 2552 37890 23720 2817 7938 30850 8530 7508 10340 4260 20090 2976 23540 11840 7828 26770 31050 3017 4181 4852 8198 6393 4796 18160 9619 8816 6627 5828 2984 7330 29740 12430 5233 7023 4969 5237 5552 8056 3082 13760 8171 6370 3850 10250 5494 22360 7364 11930 4188 13000 5102 20770 7934 7649 20760 4324 8893 6194 7048 26870 6946 8210 4983 26500 6144 5683 24820 7835 7849 7655 6788 14970 8990 6045 7601 19810 12240 33940 17360 24210 9405 62510 36580 4911 21640 6579 6866 48430 20520 12680 2777 53020 8255 26100 2698 3448 16220 2231 3286 6819 12460 20060 4392 6166 7277 23530 8436 35540 1966 6017 8647 6368 5514 9375 3010 10050 12480 4347 6080 18180 17470 7386 30650 8520 4952 23110 9473 9653 15570 9124 14250 13820 10890 32860 9306 6202 9237 10830 21290 6419 6092 4872 21300 6576 5502 6844 7717 23180 34160 5562 5351 23880 4978 6875 43480 14980 15460 14650 5955 4805 5793 7309 15180 1643 5331 7520 4491 5523 4685 5874 8101 5442 8651 11330 14750 14760 22410 7401 7825 17050 8530 5335 6015 20920 15880 20030 5170 3741 22080 5466 15900 13370 11410 18350 5407 5530 2986 10940 9960 5371 2913 11420 6280 17870 8020 28800 16490 5679 4854 5147 25570 25740 24890 22150 17830 7143 7922 5811 7898 4961 8215 6349 8918 4667 4087 6464 14160 29090 17190 4928 8456 24250 6858 8205 24780 6075 5314 6422 10700 6644 5564 12220
2021-04-22 2890 5055 8573 8251 9630 9768 11710 3848 23580 30460 19360 17630 8204 8142 8218 13460 22370 101200 7064 18100 9205 5951 26090 4955 25280 7077 49370 10800 6748 28510 6899 14500 30760 6015 24330 6240 9104 7122 9912 17230 14500 5718 14070 7083 10100 8210 8351 15940 12500 12670 3751 9092 20850 21720 6145 4888 4254 7903 11330 3148 5808 14170 2553 37910 23730 2818 7942 30860 8533 7512 10350 4266 20090 2976 23590 11850 7828 26780 31070 3024 4182 4853 8199 6402 4807 18180 9628 8823 6628 5833 2984 7332 29740 12430 5236 7029 4970 5240 5562 8056 3082 13760 8182 6370 3851 10250 5494 22360 7364 11930 4191 13000 5102 20780 7936 7653 20780 4325 8905 6196 7051 26870 6949 8213 4989 26520 6146 5683 24840 7839 7854 7666 6791 14980 8996 6054 7604 19830 12250 33990 17370 24210 9410 62590 36630 4912 21640 6585 6868 48440 20530 12680 2778 53060 8272 26110 2706 3449 16230 2234 3289 6819 12470 20080 4393 6172 7284 23540 8439 35560 1967 6023 8661 6370 5518 9405 3013 10060 12500 4353 6087 18190 17480 7387 30670 8527 4960 23130 9484 9655 15590 9127 14260 13830 10900 32880 9311 6205 9240 10840 21310 6420 6096 4872 21320 6585 5503 6844 7719 23200 34190 5568 5357 23890 4978 6878 43520 14980 15480 14670 5958 4808 5795 7312 15190 1643 5345 7523 4491 5528 4690 5884 8113 5444 8654 11330 14770 14780 22410 7403 7829 17060 8532 5340 6021 20930 15890 20050 5173 3742 22100 5467 15910 13370 11420 18360 5410 5530 2986 10950 9962 5379 2915 11430 6284 17880 8020 28810 16510 5681 4854 5151 25590 25750 24900 22160 17840 7149 7929 5811 7900 4974 8217 6350 8921 4668 4089 6467 14160 29120 17200 4930 8464 24260 6863 8208 24800 6079 5317 6424 10700 6646 5568 12220
2021-04-23 2891 5058 8574 8254 9635 9768 11720 3850 23600 30470 19380 17630 8209 8148 8220 13470 22380 101200 7070 18110 9208 5954 26110 4962 25280 7081 49440 10800 6751 28520 6900 14510 30770 6015 24330 6241 9107 7123 9912 17240 14510 5718 14080 7086 10110 8211 8354 15950 12510 12680 3753 9094 20860 21740 6149 4891 4255 7912 11330 3149 5811 14180 2553 37930 23750 2820 7945 30870 8537 7513 10360 4271 20100 2976 23620 11860 7829 26790 31080 3029 4183 4854 8201 6410 4814 18200 9635 8826 6630 5838 2984 7334 29750 12430 5238 7034 4971 5241 5568 8057 3083 13770 8190 6370 3852 10250 5495 22360 7364 11930 4193 13000 5102 20780 7939 7655 20800 4326 8913 6197 7055 26880 6952 8214 4995 26540 6149 5684 24850 7843 7857 7673 6794 14990 9003 6062 7611 19840 12260 34040 17370 24220 9413 62660 36660 4913 21650 6590 6870 48450 20540 12680 2778 53100 8281 26110 2711 3451 16230 2236 3291 6819 12480 20100 4395 6175 7290 23550 8446 35580 1969 6026 8671 6372 5521 9429 3013 10070 12510 4357 6092 18200 17490 7389 30690 8532 4965 23140 9496 9657 15610 9127 14260 13830 10900 32900 9316 6208 9241 10850 21320 6421 6099 4873 21350 6592 5505 6845 7721 23220 34210 5573 5363 23900 4978 6880 43540 14990 15490 14680 5960 4811 5798 7313 15200 1644 5353 7526 4491 5531 4694 5891 8121 5448 8655 11330 14780 14780 22410 7404 7833 17060 8535 5346 6025 20940 15900 20070 5174 3743 22110 5468 15910 13380 11430 18370 5412 5531 2987 10950 9965 5385 2917 11430 6288 17890 8023 28830 16510 5682 4855 5155 25620 25760 24910 22170 17850 7153 7934 5813 7902 4984 8218 6354 8923 4670 4091 6470 14170 29140 17210 4931 8471 24260 6868 8211 24810 6082 5319 6426 10710 6647 5573 12220
2021-04-24 2892 5060 8575 8256 9639 9771 11720 3851 23610 30480 19400 17630 8213 8151 8221 13470 22380 101200 7076 18110 9211 5957 26120 4966 25290 7083 49500 10800 6752 28530 6902 14510 30780 6015 24330 6243 9110 7127 9915 17250 14520 5718 14080 7087 10110 8213 8356 15960 12520 12680 3755 9095 20860 21740 6153 4892 4256 7919 11330 3151 5812 14180 2554 37940 23760 2823 7948 30870 8540 7514 10370 4276 20110 2977 23650 11860 7830 26800 31090 3032 4184 4855 8204 6417 4819 18210 9639 8832 6631 5843 2984 7336 29750 12430 5239 7037 4973 5243 5574 8057 3084 13770 8196 6372 3852 10250 5496 22360 7364 11930 4194 13000 5102 20780 7941 7657 20810 4328 8920 6197 7058 26890 6955 8216 4998 26550 6153 5686 24860 7847 7859 7678 6796 15000 9009 6068 7615 19850 12260 34070 17380 24220 9414 62700 36690 4915 21650 6594 6872 48460 20550 12680 2779 53130 8288 26120 2715 3452 16240 2238 3293 6821 12480 20110 4397 6176 7293 23560 8449 35590 1970 6031 8679 6375 5524 9449 3013 10070 12520 4359 6096 18220 17500 7390 30710 8537 4969 23150 9500 9660 15620 9127 14260 13840 10910 32910 9320 6210 9244 10860 21330 6422 6101 4873 21360 6599 5506 6846 7723 23220 34230 5577 5365 23900 4981 6883 43560 14990 15500 14680 5961 4814 5800 7314 15200 1644 5356 7530 4492 5533 4697 5895 8127 5448 8658 11340 14800 14790 22410 7405 7836 17070 8536 5346 6028 20940 15900 20090 5175 3744 22120 5469 15910 13380 11440 18370 5412 5532 2989 10950 9968 5390 2918 11440 6292 17890 8024 28840 16520 5684 4856 5159 25640 25770 24920 22180 17860 7156 7939 5813 7903 4992 8220 6355 8926 4672 4092 6476 14180 29150 17220 4933 8476 24260 6872 8215 24820 6085 5321 6428 10720 6648 5578 12220
2021-04-25 2894 5062 8577 8259 9644 9773 11720 3852 23620 30490 19420 17640 8217 8156 8226 13480 22390 101300 7081 18120 9214 5959 26140 4973 25300 7086 49550 10800 6753 28550 6904 14520 30800 6015 24340 6245 9112 7130 9916 17250 14540 5721 14090 7089 10120 8214 8359 15970 12530 12680 3757 9102 20870 21760 6157 4895 4258 7926 11340 3153 5817 14190 2556 37950 23770 2825 7951 30880 8544 7518 10370 4280 20120 2977 23690 11870 7830 26820 31110 3035 4185 4857 8206 6423 4824 18230 9644 8836 6632 5847 2984 7338 29760 12430 5241 7040 4975 5244 5580 8058 3085 13770 8202 6374 3854 10250 5501 22360 7366 11930 4195 13010 5104 20780 7942 7662 20820 4329 8927 6197 7061 26890 6958 8219 4999 26570 6156 5688 24880 7852 7865 7684 6799 15000 9016 6074 7618 19870 12270 34110 17380 24230 9420 62760 36720 4916 21660 6598 6874 48470 20560 12690 2782 53170 8296 26120 2719 3454 16240 2240 3295 6823 12490 20130 4398 6180 7299 23570 8454 35610 1972 6037 8687 6377 5526 9468 3014 10070 12530 4362 6100 18230 17510 7391 30720 8542 4972 23160 9506 9663 15640 9132 14270 13850 10910 32920 9324 6212 9246 10860 21350 6424 6103 4874 21380 6605 5508 6847 7725 23230 34260 5581 5368 23910 4985 6885 43580 15000 15520 14690 5963 4816 5807 7315 15210 1645 5362 7532 4494 5538 4700 5900 8133 5449 8660 11340 14810 14800 22420 7406 7839 17070 8540 5349 6032 20940 15910 20100 5179 3745 22130 5472 15920 13380 11440 18370 5416 5533 2990 10960 9971 5394 2919 11440 6296 17890 8027 28850 16530 5687 4857 5163 25670 25790 24930 22190 17860 7159 7944 5815 7904 5000 8224 6360 8928 4674 4093 6479 14180 29180 17230 4935 8481 24270 6876 8218 24830 6088 5322 6430 10720 6649 5580 12230
2021-04-26 2895 5064 8581 8263 9652 9775 11730 3854 23630 30510 19440 17640 8220 8161 8228 13480 22400 101300 7086 18130 9217 5961 26170 4976 25300 7089 49610 10810 6758 28570 6906 14520 30810 6015 24340 6246 9114 7130 9917 17260 14550 5726 14090 7091 10120 8215 8361 15970 12530 12680 3759 9110 20890 21770 6160 4895 4261 7932 11340 3154 5819 14200 2559 37970 23790 2828 7954 30890 8548 7521 10370 4284 20130 2978 23720 11880 7831 26820 31120 3037 4186 4859 8208 6429 4827 18250 9650 8843 6633 5849 2984 7340 29770 12430 5242 7042 4976 5246 5587 8061 3086 13780 8206 6382 3859 10260 5502 22360 7369 11930 4196 13010 5106 20790 7944 7664 20830 4331 8932 6198 7064 26900 6962 8221 5003 26590 6160 5690 24890 7854 7868 7692 6801 15010 9022 6080 7623 19880 12270 34160 17380 24230 9423 62820 36740 4917 21660 6602 6875 48480 20580 12690 2782 53200 8307 26130 2722 3457 16250 2242 3297 6825 12500 20140 4400 6182 7305 23570 8460 35620 1973 6040 8694 6379 5529 9485 3014 10080 12540 4364 6104 18240 17520 7393 30740 8549 4975 23180 9507 9666 15650 9136 14270 13850 10920 32940 9327 6214 9251 10870 21360 6426 6105 4875 21410 6611 5509 6849 7727 23250 34280 5584 5374 23910 4990 6887 43600 15000 15530 14700 5966 4819 5812 7317 15220 1646 5369 7532 4495 5539 4703 5903 8137 5452 8662 11340 14820 14800 22420 7406 7842 17080 8542 5351 6035 20940 15920 20120 5181 3746 22140 5473 15920 13380 11450 18370 5417 5533 2992 10970 9974 5399 2920 11440 6299 17900 8028 28860 16540 5687 4858 5167 25690 25800 24930 22200 17870 7161 7949 5820 7907 5006 8228 6364 8930 4676 4094 6484 14200 29190 17240 4937 8486 24270 6881 8222 24840 6091 5324 6432 10730 6652 5585 12230
2021-04-27 2896 5066 8582 8266 9654 9776 11740 3855 23640 30520 19460 17640 8224 8170 8230 13490 22400 101300 7090 18130 9219 5964 26170 4980 25310 7091 49660 10810 6759 28580 6908 14530 30820 6018 24350 6248 9116 7131 9921 17270 14560 5732 14100 7091 10130 8216 8362 15980 12540 12690 3760 9113 20890 21770 6163 4897 4266 7938 11340 3156 5823 14210 2559 37980 23800 2830 7957 30890 8551 7524 10380 4288 20130 2978 23750 11880 7833 26830 31140 3039 4187 4861 8211 6435 4831 18260 9652 8848 6635 5852 2985 7342 29780 12430 5244 7045 4978 5247 5594 8061 3086 13790 8210 6384 3860 10260 5504 22370 7373 11930 4197 13020 5109 20790 7946 7667 20840 4332 8937 6199 7066 26900 6965 8223 5004 26600 6164 5693 24900 7858 7870 7697 6804 15010 9029 6086 7629 19900 12280 34190 17390 24240 9429 62860 36780 4918 21670 6605 6879 48490 20590 12690 2783 53240 8312 26130 2725 3460 16250 2243 3300 6828 12500 20150 4402 6186 7308 23580 8462 35640 1975 6044 8701 6381 5531 9502 3016 10090 12550 4366 6108 18260 17520 7394 30750 8555 4978 23190 9512 9669 15660 9141 14280 13860 10920 32950 9331 6215 9252 10870 21370 6429 6107 4876 21430 6617 5511 6850 7729 23260 34290 5588 5376 23920 4996 6889 43640 15010 15540 14700 5969 4822 5815 7319 15220 1646 5374 7535 4497 5540 4705 5906 8141 5456 8665 11340 14840 14810 22430 7407 7845 17080 8545 5354 6037 20950 15920 20130 5181 3747 22150 5475 15920 13380 11460 18380 5422 5534 2994 10970 9977 5403 2921 11440 6303 17900 8033 28870 16550 5691 4859 5170 25720 25810 24940 22210 17880 7164 7953 5823 7910 5012 8231 6366 8933 4678 4095 6490 14210 29200 17250 4939 8490 24280 6883 8225 24850 6093 5325 6433 10730 6654 5594 12230

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-04-21 to 2021-04-27

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-04-20 2887 5049 8571 8233 9612 9765 11696 3846 23561 30419 19301 17619 8195 8132 8210 13451 22350 101077 7051 18096 9198 5945 26037 4934 25259 7063 49173 10798 6739 28499 6896 14491 30735 6014 24315 6236 9097 7120 9912 17215 14461 5711 14065 7080 10098 8206 8345 15916 12481 12664 3747 9090 20836 21693 6136 4879 4253 7885 11318 3144 5799 14158 2552 37879 23703 2814 7935 30844 8526 7506 10339 4256 20080 2975 23488 11835 7827 26742 31036 3015 4180 4852 8195 6386 4793 18143 9606 8812 6627 5827 2983 7328 29729 12423 5232 7021 4967 5236 5547 8056 3082 13749 8167 6370 3850 10245 5494 22353 7360 11924 4187 12990 5100 20771 7932 7643 20752 4322 8888 6194 7045 26860 6942 8208 4977 26483 6139 5680 24810 7827 7839 7639 6785 14969 8983 6039 7595 19763 12231 33882 17357 24205 9400 62423 36515 4910 21633 6575 6864 48407 20503 12677 2777 52978 8222 26093 2695 3446 16216 2229 3284 6816 12450 20051 4390 6163 7272 23520 8436 35525 1964 6005 8640 6366 5512 9357 3010 10054 12469 4345 6073 18164 17452 7385 30632 8512 4950 23059 9460 9650 15540 9124 14243 13808 10885 32852 9302 6200 9235 10826 21264 6417 6090 4872 21261 6570 5500 6842 7715 23167 34133 5558 5350 23869 4971 6873 43444 14978 15440 14641 5952 4802 5792 7306 15169 1642 5313 7511 4489 5516 4683 5871 8097 5440 8650 11329 14720 14758 22400 7400 7822 17042 8528 5332 6012 20916 15861 20015 5167 3740 22053 5466 15898 13365 11409 18345 5401 5529 2984 10940 9957 5367 2912 11421 6276 17870 8020 28792 16481 5678 4853 5143 25528 25713 24887 22136 17817 7141 7917 5811 7894 4955 8208 6346 8916 4665 4086 6460 14146 29038 17173 4924 8451 24244 6853 8201 24756 6072 5309 6420 10688 6641 5558 12215
2021-04-21 2888 5051 8573 8238 9614 9767 11700 3847 23570 30440 19320 17620 8198 8142 8213 13460 22360 101100 7056 18100 9201 5947 26050 4940 25270 7067 49230 10800 6744 28510 6899 14500 30750 6016 24320 6237 9099 7121 9916 17220 14470 5719 14070 7081 10100 8207 8347 15920 12490 12670 3749 9093 20850 21700 6138 4882 4257 7889 11320 3146 5801 14170 2553 37890 23710 2818 7938 30850 8531 7509 10340 4258 20090 2976 23520 11840 7828 26750 31050 3017 4182 4855 8198 6391 4796 18160 9609 8819 6628 5828 2984 7330 29740 12430 5233 7025 4969 5238 5555 8056 3082 13760 8169 6374 3852 10250 5495 22360 7363 11930 4188 13000 5104 20780 7934 7648 20760 4324 8892 6195 7048 26870 6946 8210 4981 26500 6144 5684 24820 7833 7844 7646 6788 14970 8991 6046 7602 19780 12240 33930 17360 24210 9403 62470 36550 4911 21640 6578 6866 48420 20520 12680 2778 53010 8233 26100 2698 3449 16220 2230 3286 6818 12460 20060 4391 6166 7276 23530 8440 35540 1965 6011 8645 6370 5515 9371 3013 10060 12480 4347 6077 18180 17460 7388 30650 8519 4953 23080 9462 9654 15560 9128 14250 13810 10890 32860 9306 6202 9238 10830 21270 6419 6092 4873 21280 6577 5502 6844 7717 23180 34150 5562 5352 23880 4981 6875 43480 14980 15450 14650 5955 4804 5796 7309 15180 1643 5319 7519 4491 5519 4685 5877 8100 5444 8651 11340 14730 14760 22410 7402 7825 17050 8531 5335 6015 20930 15870 20030 5168 3741 22060 5468 15910 13370 11420 18360 5404 5530 2986 10950 9960 5371 2913 11420 6279 17870 8023 28800 16490 5680 4854 5146 25550 25730 24900 22150 17830 7144 7921 5815 7897 4960 8212 6350 8918 4668 4088 6467 14160 29050 17180 4926 8456 24250 6856 8209 24760 6076 5311 6422 10690 6644 5563 12220
2021-04-22 2889 5053 8574 8241 9616 9768 11710 3849 23580 30450 19340 17630 8201 8147 8216 13460 22360 101200 7061 18110 9204 5950 26070 4945 25280 7072 49280 10800 6745 28520 6901 14500 30770 6018 24330 6238 9102 7122 9918 17230 14480 5722 14080 7082 10110 8209 8349 15930 12490 12670 3751 9094 20850 21710 6142 4885 4258 7893 11320 3147 5804 14180 2554 37900 23730 2819 7941 30860 8533 7513 10350 4263 20090 2976 23540 11850 7829 26760 31060 3020 4182 4857 8200 6393 4800 18170 9612 8825 6629 5831 2984 7331 29740 12430 5236 7027 4971 5239 5566 8057 3083 13760 8173 6375 3853 10250 5496 22360 7365 11930 4189 13000 5105 20780 7936 7652 20770 4326 8898 6196 7050 26870 6950 8213 4986 26520 6146 5686 24840 7837 7847 7652 6791 14980 8997 6052 7606 19790 12240 33970 17370 24220 9406 62540 36580 4912 21640 6580 6868 48430 20530 12680 2778 53050 8243 26110 2702 3451 16230 2233 3288 6820 12460 20080 4393 6170 7279 23550 8443 35550 1966 6016 8650 6371 5517 9386 3016 10070 12490 4349 6079 18190 17470 7389 30660 8525 4956 23100 9469 9656 15570 9129 14250 13820 10900 32880 9310 6203 9240 10830 21290 6420 6094 4873 21300 6583 5503 6845 7720 23190 34160 5565 5355 23880 4984 6877 43520 14990 15460 14660 5957 4807 5800 7311 15180 1643 5327 7525 4494 5523 4688 5883 8106 5445 8652 11340 14750 14770 22410 7404 7829 17050 8532 5339 6019 20940 15870 20040 5170 3742 22070 5470 15910 13370 11420 18370 5407 5531 2987 10950 9961 5377 2914 11430 6283 17880 8023 28810 16500 5682 4855 5149 25560 25740 24900 22170 17840 7146 7925 5816 7898 4969 8214 6351 8919 4669 4090 6468 14170 29060 17190 4927 8460 24260 6859 8213 24770 6078 5312 6423 10700 6646 5564 12220
2021-04-23 2891 5054 8574 8245 9617 9769 11720 3850 23590 30470 19360 17630 8204 8153 8217 13470 22360 101200 7066 18110 9206 5951 26090 4951 25280 7076 49330 10800 6747 28540 6903 14500 30780 6018 24330 6239 9104 7122 9920 17240 14480 5727 14080 7083 10110 8210 8350 15940 12500 12670 3753 9095 20860 21710 6146 4888 4259 7897 11330 3148 5807 14180 2555 37920 23740 2821 7944 30870 8536 7517 10350 4267 20100 2976 23560 11860 7829 26770 31080 3022 4183 4858 8203 6395 4803 18180 9616 8828 6631 5834 2984 7332 29750 12430 5237 7029 4973 5240 5572 8057 3083 13760 8175 6376 3854 10250 5496 22370 7366 11930 4190 13010 5106 20780 7938 7656 20780 4326 8903 6197 7051 26880 6952 8214 4991 26530 6147 5688 24850 7840 7849 7656 6793 14990 9003 6058 7613 19800 12250 34010 17370 24230 9407 62590 36610 4913 21640 6582 6869 48440 20550 12680 2778 53080 8250 26110 2706 3454 16240 2234 3290 6823 12470 20090 4394 6173 7281 23560 8447 35570 1967 6018 8655 6373 5518 9400 3016 10070 12490 4351 6081 18210 17480 7391 30680 8530 4959 23110 9478 9658 15580 9130 14260 13820 10900 32890 9313 6204 9242 10840 21300 6421 6095 4874 21320 6589 5504 6846 7722 23200 34170 5568 5357 23890 4988 6879 43550 14990 15480 14660 5958 4810 5803 7312 15190 1644 5332 7530 4496 5525 4691 5887 8111 5447 8653 11340 14760 14770 22410 7405 7833 17060 8534 5343 6022 20950 15880 20050 5171 3743 22070 5471 15910 13370 11430 18380 5408 5532 2989 10960 9963 5381 2916 11430 6286 17880 8026 28820 16500 5683 4856 5151 25580 25750 24910 22180 17840 7148 7930 5818 7899 4975 8216 6355 8921 4671 4092 6470 14180 29070 17200 4928 8463 24260 6861 8216 24780 6080 5314 6424 10710 6647 5565 12230
2021-04-24 2892 5056 8575 8247 9619 9771 11720 3851 23590 30480 19380 17630 8206 8157 8218 13470 22370 101200 7071 18120 9209 5953 26100 4956 25290 7079 49380 10800 6748 28550 6905 14500 30790 6019 24330 6240 9106 7123 9924 17240 14490 5732 14080 7084 10120 8210 8352 15940 12500 12670 3754 9096 20860 21720 6149 4889 4260 7901 11330 3150 5810 14190 2555 37930 23750 2824 7947 30870 8538 7519 10350 4270 20110 2977 23580 11860 7830 26770 31090 3024 4183 4859 8204 6397 4806 18190 9618 8833 6632 5837 2984 7334 29760 12430 5238 7031 4975 5242 5578 8058 3084 13760 8177 6379 3855 10250 5497 22370 7367 11930 4191 13020 5107 20790 7940 7659 20780 4327 8908 6198 7053 26880 6953 8217 4994 26550 6149 5690 24860 7844 7851 7659 6796 14990 9008 6063 7617 19800 12260 34040 17370 24240 9407 62620 36630 4914 21650 6583 6871 48450 20560 12690 2779 53110 8256 26120 2709 3456 16240 2236 3293 6825 12470 20100 4396 6175 7282 23580 8451 35590 1968 6021 8659 6374 5520 9413 3017 10070 12500 4352 6083 18220 17480 7392 30690 8534 4962 23130 9481 9659 15580 9131 14260 13830 10910 32910 9316 6205 9244 10840 21300 6422 6097 4874 21330 6594 5505 6847 7724 23200 34170 5570 5358 23900 4992 6881 43580 15000 15480 14670 5959 4813 5806 7313 15190 1644 5336 7534 4498 5527 4693 5890 8114 5448 8654 11350 14770 14780 22420 7406 7836 17060 8536 5344 6025 20960 15880 20060 5172 3744 22080 5472 15920 13370 11430 18380 5409 5532 2991 10960 9965 5385 2917 11430 6289 17880 8026 28820 16510 5685 4856 5153 25590 25760 24920 22180 17850 7149 7933 5819 7900 4981 8218 6355 8922 4672 4093 6472 14190 29070 17210 4929 8466 24260 6863 8220 24780 6082 5315 6425 10710 6649 5566 12230
2021-04-25 2893 5057 8576 8250 9621 9773 11730 3853 23600 30490 19390 17630 8210 8162 8223 13480 22370 101300 7075 18120 9211 5956 26120 4962 25300 7083 49420 10800 6750 28560 6907 14510 30800 6020 24340 6240 9108 7126 9927 17250 14500 5738 14090 7085 10120 8211 8353 15950 12510 12670 3756 9099 20870 21730 6152 4892 4261 7905 11330 3151 5817 14200 2557 37940 23760 2826 7949 30880 8542 7524 10350 4273 20110 2977 23610 11870 7830 26780 31110 3026 4184 4861 8206 6400 4808 18200 9622 8837 6632 5841 2985 7336 29760 12430 5239 7034 4976 5243 5583 8059 3085 13770 8181 6381 3857 10250 5499 22370 7369 11930 4192 13020 5109 20790 7942 7663 20790 4328 8912 6199 7054 26890 6959 8220 4997 26570 6151 5692 24870 7848 7856 7663 6798 15000 9013 6069 7620 19810 12260 34070 17380 24240 9410 62660 36660 4916 21650 6584 6873 48460 20580 12690 2781 53150 8265 26120 2712 3458 16250 2238 3295 6827 12480 20110 4397 6179 7286 23590 8454 35600 1968 6027 8664 6376 5522 9426 3017 10080 12510 4354 6084 18230 17500 7393 30700 8538 4964 23140 9487 9661 15590 9136 14260 13830 10910 32920 9320 6205 9246 10850 21320 6424 6098 4875 21350 6600 5507 6848 7726 23210 34180 5572 5360 23900 4997 6883 43610 15000 15500 14670 5960 4816 5811 7314 15200 1645 5341 7539 4501 5532 4696 5893 8118 5450 8656 11350 14780 14780 22420 7407 7839 17060 8538 5347 6028 20970 15880 20070 5174 3745 22090 5474 15920 13380 11440 18390 5411 5533 2992 10970 9968 5389 2918 11430 6293 17890 8029 28830 16510 5687 4857 5155 25610 25770 24920 22190 17850 7150 7937 5820 7901 4987 8222 6359 8924 4674 4095 6474 14200 29090 17220 4930 8470 24270 6866 8224 24790 6084 5316 6425 10720 6651 5567 12230
2021-04-26 2893 5059 8578 8255 9626 9774 11740 3854 23610 30500 19410 17640 8212 8168 8225 13480 22370 101300 7079 18130 9213 5958 26140 4967 25300 7087 49490 10800 6752 28580 6909 14510 30810 6020 24340 6241 9110 7126 9930 17250 14510 5745 14090 7085 10130 8212 8354 15960 12510 12670 3758 9101 20880 21730 6155 4894 4263 7910 11340 3153 5820 14200 2558 37950 23770 2828 7951 30890 8544 7529 10360 4276 20120 2977 23630 11870 7831 26790 31120 3028 4184 4863 8208 6402 4810 18210 9626 8842 6633 5844 2985 7338 29770 12440 5240 7036 4978 5244 5590 8060 3086 13770 8183 6385 3859 10260 5500 22380 7371 11930 4192 13030 5111 20790 7943 7667 20790 4330 8917 6200 7055 26890 6963 8222 5002 26580 6153 5693 24890 7852 7860 7669 6800 15000 9018 6074 7625 19820 12270 34110 17380 24250 9412 62700 36700 4917 21660 6586 6874 48470 20590 12690 2781 53180 8276 26130 2715 3461 16260 2239 3297 6829 12490 20120 4398 6181 7287 23600 8458 35620 1969 6029 8669 6377 5523 9439 3017 10080 12510 4356 6086 18250 17500 7395 30710 8545 4967 23160 9492 9662 15610 9140 14270 13840 10920 32930 9323 6206 9249 10850 21330 6425 6100 4876 21370 6605 5508 6849 7728 23220 34190 5574 5363 23910 5003 6885 43650 15000 15500 14680 5962 4819 5815 7316 15210 1646 5349 7542 4503 5534 4698 5897 8122 5452 8657 11350 14800 14790 22430 7408 7843 17070 8540 5349 6030 20980 15890 20080 5176 3746 22100 5475 15920 13380 11450 18390 5412 5534 2993 10970 9970 5393 2919 11430 6296 17890 8030 28840 16520 5688 4858 5157 25640 25780 24930 22210 17860 7151 7941 5822 7902 4992 8225 6362 8925 4676 4097 6476 14210 29090 17230 4931 8473 24280 6868 8227 24800 6087 5318 6426 10720 6653 5568 12240
2021-04-27 2894 5061 8578 8260 9627 9775 11740 3856 23620 30520 19430 17640 8215 8173 8229 13490 22370 101300 7083 18130 9216 5960 26150 4974 25310 7090 49530 10800 6755 28590 6911 14510 30820 6021 24340 6242 9112 7126 9932 17260 14510 5752 14100 7086 10140 8213 8355 15960 12520 12680 3761 9103 20880 21740 6159 4897 4264 7913 11340 3154 5826 14210 2558 37960 23780 2831 7954 30890 8547 7533 10360 4280 20130 2977 23650 11880 7832 26800 31130 3030 4185 4863 8211 6404 4812 18220 9629 8846 6633 5847 2986 7339 29780 12440 5240 7038 4980 5245 5595 8061 3086 13780 8186 6387 3860 10260 5501 22380 7373 11930 4193 13030 5112 20800 7945 7672 20800 4330 8923 6201 7057 26900 6965 8225 5005 26600 6155 5694 24900 7855 7862 7673 6802 15010 9024 6079 7630 19840 12270 34150 17380 24260 9415 62740 36730 4918 21660 6587 6876 48480 20600 12690 2782 53220 8285 26130 2717 3463 16260 2241 3300 6831 12490 20130 4400 6185 7289 23620 8461 35640 1970 6034 8673 6378 5525 9451 3018 10080 12520 4358 6088 18260 17510 7396 30730 8550 4969 23170 9500 9665 15620 9143 14270 13840 10930 32940 9326 6207 9251 10860 21340 6427 6101 4876 21390 6611 5510 6851 7730 23230 34200 5577 5364 23920 5008 6887 43690 15010 15510 14680 5963 4822 5818 7317 15210 1646 5355 7545 4506 5536 4701 5900 8126 5454 8659 11350 14810 14790 22430 7409 7846 17070 8542 5351 6033 20990 15890 20080 5177 3748 22100 5476 15930 13380 11450 18400 5414 5535 2993 10980 9972 5397 2920 11440 6299 17890 8032 28840 16520 5690 4858 5158 25660 25790 24930 22210 17870 7153 7945 5823 7903 4999 8228 6364 8926 4678 4098 6477 14220 29100 17240 4932 8476 24280 6870 8230 24810 6089 5320 6426 10730 6654 5570 12240

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.