COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-04-26

	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-26	12-27	12-26	2021-03-25	12-27	07-21	12-21	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-23	12-28	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	2021-01-02	2021-01-11	12-30	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-29	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-07	2021-01-07	2021-01-03	11-13	2021-01-01	12-21	10-24	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-14	12-06	12-28	12-30	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-30	12-30	12-27	12-07	10-28	12-21	12-27	12-26	12-08	12-06	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-22	12-21	10-28	12-30	12-22	12-28	12-25	12-22	12-21	2021-01-03	12-21	12-21	12-30	10-04	2021-01-04	12-26	2021-01-05	12-29	12-26	12-27	12-29	12-24	11-02	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-28	2021-01-02	2021-02-25	12-21	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	12-22	10-04	12-27	07-21	12-24	12-29	10-04	12-24	12-21	11-09	12-06	12-26	07-21	10-31	12-27	12-30	12-28	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-25	12-21	12-22	2021-01-06	09-27	12-27	12-23	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-25	12-18	12-25	2021-01-04	12-26	12-26	10-04	12-21	12-28	12-21	12-21	12-27	12-21	2021-01-05	12-22	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-28	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-23	12-13	12-27	12-13	12-29	12-22	12-29	12-28	12-28	12-30	12-22	12-26	12-21	2021-01-01	12-21	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-25	11-01	12-21	10-27	12-27	12-29	2021-01-06	11-02	2021-01-03	12-21	12-27	12-27	11-02	12-21	12-26	2021-03-31	12-22	12-21	12-31	12-29	2021-01-02	12-22	11-01	2021-01-07	12-08	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	2021-03-25	12-31	07-21	12-22	12-27	12-06	07-21	2021-03-18	12-28	12-29	2021-01-03	11-03	12-27	12-06	07-21	12-08	12-27	10-26	12-26	12-21	10-04	11-01	12-21	12-29	11-04	12-21	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	2021-01-01	12-29	12-29	11-02	12-28	07-21	12-27	12-28	12-26	12-27	2021-01-06	2021-01-06	2021-01-01	12-06	2021-01-04	12-29	12-21	12-31	2021-01-05	12-22	10-04	12-06	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-10	12-31	12-13	10-18	12-30	12-28	12-27	12-25	2021-01-26	2021-01-02	12-29	12-29	2021-01-03	12-23	12-21	12-31	12-29	12-22	11-02	07-21	12-30	12-25	12-25	12-21	12-29	12-21	12-21	12-28	12-26	12-25	2021-01-04	12-22	11-09	10-04	12-21	12-22	12-20	2021-01-03	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	12-25	12-25	10-27	12-22	11-07	12-28	12-27	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-02	12-25	12-29	2021-01-02	12-26	12-30	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-26	12-21	12-19	12-22	12-23	12-27	12-06	11-13	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-26	12-08	12-21	11-01	12-27	12-27	12-15	12-25	11-02	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-26	12-20	12-13	10-04	11-02	12-07	10-04	12-22	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	2021-01-01	12-28	12-25	12-31	12-21	12-30	12-26	11-02
Peak daily increment	92	102	61	88	97	40	77	73	119	170	110	171	178	78	477	589	189	58	326	128	110	108	233	252	426	1250	75	157	65	95	58	157	50	484	142	434	228	107	524	155	233	306	320	107	508	94	186	62	122	123	211	137	99	256	87	148	354	172	194	175	107	303	40	90	268	52	197	249	283	59	91	71	65	266	20	243	5	35	53	94	285	34	553	288	38	181	598	151	69	189	72	58	246	27	170	248	187	118	322	119	87	536	308	60	52	71	76	160	106	25	51	235	204	102	163	147	107	56	146	593	273	97	74	80	69	90	73	94	119	150	125	54	38	122	82	597	92	56	180	92	451	119	34	377	219	59	201	57	401	172	103	338	101	106	136	120	476	101	159	52	76	442	57	116	452	143	83	74	134	18	237	275	148	70	100	283	198	349	311	428	107	1449	284	104	456	71	230	102	727	26	200	90	36	368	92	419	25	46	106	298	37	62	153	186	27	213	302	361	79	62	66	23	105	63	122	85	723	190	192	23	50	137	105	51	394	105	58	122	107	41	55	277	158	121	224	90	68	123	3	125	44	108	58	154	120	207	43	102	174	623	105	81	176	151	286	52	188	39	132	139	56	96	198	80	85	59	174	36	25	162	450	42	83	82	403	65	131	573	25	209	244	167	97	42	111	102	69	181	27	42	86	72	448	95	79	108	80	66	102	115	247	293	450	131	156	219	94	55	112	26	189	138	197	66	42	206	105	331	189	270	181	123	56	109	46	141	352	90	44	138	122	360	139	51	101	14	559	151	90	110	120	84	250	329	449	390	227	259	138	117	160	65	154	87	29	78	166	42	65	67	115	217	217	265	83	148	430	106	138	377	106	115	176	95	173	71	69	594
Days since peak	119	120	120	121	120	121	32	120	279	126	120	139	126	124	119	124	195	120	124	114	105	117	126	121	125	118	120	120	118	140	109	113	164	115	126	184	125	120	120	133	141	119	117	122	126	121	125	117	117	120	140	180	126	120	121	139	141	120	139	126	125	126	180	117	125	119	122	125	126	113	126	126	117	204	112	121	111	118	121	120	118	123	175	120	119	120	120	126	122	126	126	119	114	60	126	194	120	140	121	125	204	120	279	123	118	204	123	126	168	141	121	279	177	120	117	119	126	121	125	122	126	125	110	211	120	124	120	125	119	122	129	122	112	121	121	204	126	119	126	126	120	126	111	125	120	119	126	126	126	119	120	119	126	124	134	120	134	118	125	118	119	119	117	125	121	126	115	126	119	126	120	125	119	119	122	176	126	181	120	118	110	175	113	126	120	120	175	126	121	26	125	126	116	118	114	125	176	109	139	126	126	126	125	126	32	116	279	125	120	141	279	39	119	118	113	174	120	141	279	139	120	182	121	126	204	176	126	118	173	126	112	120	126	115	118	118	175	119	279	120	119	121	120	110	110	115	141	112	118	126	116	111	125	204	141	119	126	120	119	137	116	134	190	117	119	120	122	90	114	118	118	113	124	126	116	118	125	175	279	117	122	122	126	118	126	126	119	121	122	112	125	168	204	126	125	127	113	119	120	125	126	133	119	121	126	122	122	181	125	170	119	120	176	126	124	125	120	126	140	145	122	118	114	121	117	112	120	126	121	126	128	125	124	120	141	164	126	120	125	121	139	126	176	120	120	132	122	175	126	125	126	120	121	127	134	204	175	140	204	125	124	125	120	118	125	125	119	120	125	120	115	119	122	116	126	117	121	175
Last total	7166	5827	2896	5053	8581	3138	8377	5941	1450	8259	9628	9787	11738	3852	23600	30480	19417	4272	17644	8222	8169	8235	13505	22516	22377	101301	7074	18155	9215	6164	5957	26173	4960	25314	7082	49410	10811	6753	28610	6902	12587	14541	30819	6032	24354	6246	9106	7128	9929	17258	13425	14505	5770	14107	7096	10120	26159	8214	10763	8357	7343	15970	1772	12503	12689	3752	9109	20901	21727	6147	4903	4272	7921	17003	2472	11338	294	3869	3150	5829	14207	2565	38019	23785	2829	7950	30898	8567	7527	10357	4271	4331	20126	2986	12151	23660	11870	7842	26794	4179	6935	31135	6350	3032	4196	5156	4869	8213	6404	2856	4813	4797	18231	9632	8877	6633	5842	2988	7358	29776	12434	5252	7034	4982	6705	5256	5580	5906	11384	9612	8064	3087	4782	13772	8177	41577	6386	3859	10274	5512	22397	7388	3394	21678	11949	4200	13021	5114	20808	7948	7664	20840	4339	8917	6203	7061	26895	7001	8220	4987	3587	26570	6152	5697	24902	7856	7904	2981	7670	2300	6796	14999	9027	6069	7648	19822	12264	34132	17374	24244	9427	62715	36684	4919	21676	6585	6884	7479	48471	20607	12695	3757	2787	53143	8260	26118	2699	3461	6726	16253	2248	3302	6832	12470	7706	12478	3190	20108	4400	4177	1563	11634	6185	7294	23598	8453	35618	11307	6341	1978	6032	8667	6386	5537	22172	9484	3032	10082	12510	4350	6092	18214	17498	7402	30714	8557	4962	23131	72	9501	3456	9668	4560	15626	9161	14267	4176	13871	10915	32932	9318	6213	9244	10635	21336	4586	10866	2628	21323	6422	6106	4879	21352	6612	5517	6854	7720	1657	1886	23254	34215	5577	2886	5370	23921	5054	6887	43655	235	15031	15508	14665	5967	4217	4818	5823	7326	15217	1655	5341	7531	4505	18828	5541	4695	5884	8116	5455	8664	11360	14777	14773	22444	7416	7831	17063	8545	5354	6029	3408	20973	15905	20092	5182	3754	22094	5470	15938	13382	17571	11470	18404	5414	5545	2992	10982	9978	5396	2922	11451	6297	17894	8036	4225	6435	996	28875	16570	5700	4863	7441	5170	25709	25766	24928	22213	17857	7153	7936	5847	7919	4986	8225	6366	1176	4426	8933	4684	8091	4092	6498	14224	29099	17249	4938	8491	24274	6865	8241	24807	6089	5321	11476	6431	10727	6649	5566	12261
Last daily increment	5	4	3	1	3	2	7	1	0	5	2	2	9	1	9	7	20	3	5	8	5	5	10	22	4	36	3	17	4	0	0	33	3	12	3	39	4	2	15	0	0	9	16	2	7	2	4	3	5	11	5	9	10	4	5	4	12	1	4	2	8	13	1	3	3	0	6	14	9	3	4	7	4	23	2	3	0	0	1	8	8	1	33	21	1	3	12	4	4	6	7	0	8	1	15	39	7	1	9	5	7	17	14	2	5	10	3	2	3	1	2	9	28	6	12	3	5	0	4	7	2	3	2	4	2	4	4	8	19	1	2	1	0	6	2	28	0	3	5	2	10	6	5	7	8	3	9	0	10	3	6	10	2	4	2	2	4	23	3	4	2	13	4	3	18	8	13	0	8	0	3	3	11	6	16	16	6	39	4	6	10	65	29	0	9	2	5	5	14	16	2	1	1	25	5	0	0	1	0	6	2	1	2	16	8	4	0	10	3	1	14	2	5	5	20	7	21	7	5	5	5	3	4	6	17	33	4	5	7	2	5	8	18	7	14	10	6	10	0	9	2	3	5	16	7	7	2	21	5	13	4	0	2	2	1	1	11	0	12	1	4	2	14	6	4	2	0	1	5	19	17	5	2	3	13	14	6	39	0	14	10	6	2	3	2	3	3	6	8	7	6	5	3	9	3	3	3	1	1	9	12	3	9	1	2	3	2	6	2	1	8	7	12	1	1	7	2	6	4	4	10	15	2	0	3	6	6	7	2	8	5	7	2	1	1	1	6	20	1	0	2	9	36	13	7	12	14	1	2	10	4	6	3	6	3	3	5	5	5	0	5	12	16	20	4	5	5	4	10	10	4	0	3	0	6	1	1	13
Last week	30	13	9	4	11	3	41	13	5	26	14	20	39	6	39	60	115	7	24	26	37	23	50	92	27	215	22	58	18	3	12	130	26	53	19	236	13	14	96	5	8	49	82	16	37	11	10	8	16	42	13	41	55	37	16	22	39	7	15	12	38	53	3	23	21	5	19	64	34	11	24	19	35	110	6	20	0	6	6	31	49	11	139	78	15	15	53	39	21	18	16	1	43	11	66	174	35	17	53	29	36	101	49	16	16	44	17	17	18	9	19	25	88	26	62	5	15	4	29	42	11	20	12	16	34	20	33	56	102	9	7	5	5	24	9	213	14	9	26	18	44	27	17	44	24	12	33	14	35	15	21	86	17	29	9	16	31	58	13	10	15	84	12	18	84	30	64	9	31	2	11	27	37	29	53	59	33	251	17	33	27	286	163	10	42	9	19	19	65	99	16	2	10	159	38	25	4	17	3	35	19	18	16	91	32	27	8	53	10	2	34	16	22	22	75	17	91	36	22	13	25	26	19	26	140	125	20	27	39	5	19	48	46	17	78	45	9	72	1	38	8	18	40	82	36	23	7	67	29	72	16	13	9	36	15	7	39	10	58	5	15	7	92	42	16	12	5	8	9	86	84	19	3	20	51	83	13	204	0	53	63	22	13	34	15	32	20	48	13	28	20	16	65	22	13	11	17	14	13	29	55	15	43	15	10	20	17	22	17	6	57	44	75	16	14	41	4	37	17	45	61	58	13	14	8	41	19	29	10	30	21	24	15	12	4	6	81	87	20	9	6	26	180	52	41	73	39	12	19	35	23	31	18	20	7	20	16	18	39	6	29	69	63	74	13	40	31	12	38	49	16	12	24	9	40	10	6	46
Previous peak date	07-21	07-21	--	--	10-27	07-21	12-21	10-07	--	--	10-21	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	10-26	11-02	--	10-07	--	11-02	--	10-13	10-13	--	10-25	10-15	--	11-02	--	05-03	10-26	--	--	--	--	10-16	11-02	--	--	--	--	10-12	09-27	10-27	09-02	--	--	10-01	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-10	--	--	11-02	--	--	10-27	10-18	--	10-20	--	--	10-13	07-21	07-21	10-14	--	--	--	--	10-29	--	04-20	10-31	10-31	--	10-29	10-17	--	--	--	10-21	10-27	12-28	10-01	--	10-12	--	--	07-21	07-21	--	--	--	11-01	07-21	10-27	--	--	07-21	10-27	--	--	--	10-30	--	10-20	--	10-06	--	--	--	10-18	--	07-21	--	--	--	07-21	--	--	--	10-15	10-29	10-11	07-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-28	10-27	10-14	--	10-12	--	10-27	10-30	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	10-17	10-27	07-21	--	11-01	--	--	--	10-13	07-21	--	06-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	09-29	--	10-08	04-14	11-02	--	--	10-31	--	10-12	09-28	12-27	--	--	--	11-02	10-25	--	--	--	--	10-15	--	--	--	10-12	12-21	11-03	--	09-30	--	--	--	12-07	--	--	11-02	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	07-21	--	--	10-31	--	--	11-03	08-02	--	--	11-02	11-01	--	10-22	--	--	--	--	07-21	--	11-02	11-02	--	11-02	--	--	11-03	10-26	--	07-21	--	10-11	10-10	--	10-19	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	11-02	11-02	10-31	07-21	--	09-30	10-25	--	--	--	10-28	--	--	--	07-21	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	07-21	--	--	--	10-13	--	10-24	--	--	--	--	--	10-17	10-08	10-29	--	--	07-21	10-18	10-12	--	--	--	10-06	10-31	--	--	--	--	10-18	11-04	--	--	10-29	10-11	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	10-17	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-22	--	--	10-22	--	--	--	--	--	07-21	--	--	07-21	--	10-15	--	10-16	10-24	--	--	09-30	10-30	10-11	--	11-03	--	10-19	10-28	--	10-17	--	--
Previous peak daily increment	616	365			80	295	134	40			61		40					31			75	271		262		1226		166	98		54	234		363		55	19					62	1197					57	72	160	31			54				39			60			294			35	120		54			62	1272	83	35					57		68	129	18		69	22				25	164	25	206		59			226	710				39	383	25			191	31				24		30		29				56		475				687				43	127	72	1766									70	33	54		60		69	57				38			22	44	144		49				59	248		45							46		153		81	75	479			56		71	480	273				2237	61					44				109	105	87		25				191			2429						53				1007			82			56	68			1343	64		257					230		139	354		150			88	41		459		41	46		194		65					67				406	233	81	152		189	33				104				226			66						876				66		75						20	118	77			149	184	120				129	18					172	46			89	27	17						45				144									135			23						307			376		24		319	68			141	22	25		38		54	32		67
Low between peaks	0	-1			28	0	8	18			26		-44					8			37	20		48		303		55	29		19	62		23		27	-19					21	68					19	34	54	12			23				7			26			28			-43	-38		17			31	-11	-4	-18					12		1	39	-9		28	-31				9	53	8	34		-47			-2	-3				-13	-3	-32			-1	10				-10		8		-67				19		-4				-5				-9	24	23	-7									22	-40	23		15		-120	-7				19			-66	-54	-1		15				21	-2		0							18		21		23	6	120			21		21	58	6				114	21					-25				39	6	35		8				7			18						-9				-7			35			16	7			50	28		58					1		20	37		38			22	13		-2		-20	-118		62		22					16				36	92	19	-4		26	14				31				-2			24						-7				28		24						-77	30	38			-1	43	43				58	-23					32	15			31	11	7						6				-31									-27			-71						-2			-2		-25		77	-103			19	-17	-8		8		27	12		-4

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-04-27 to 2021-05-03

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Amber Valley	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastleigh	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-04-26	7166	5827	2896	8581	8377	5941	8259	9628	9787	11738	3852	23600	30480	19417	4272	17644	8222	8169	8235	13505	22516	22377	101301	7074	18155	9215	5957	26173	4960	25314	7082	49410	10811	6753	28610	12587	14541	30819	6032	24354	6246	9106	7128	9929	17258	13425	14505	5770	14107	7096	10120	26159	8214	10763	8357	7343	15970	12503	12689	9109	20901	21727	6147	4903	4272	7921	17003	2472	11338	3869	3150	5829	14207	2565	38019	23785	2829	7950	30898	8567	7527	10357	4271	20126	2986	12151	23660	11870	7842	26794	4179	6935	31135	6350	3032	4196	5156	4869	8213	6404	2856	4813	4797	18231	9632	8877	5842	7358	29776	12434	5252	7034	4982	6705	5256	5580	5906	11384	9612	8064	13772	8177	41577	6386	3859	10274	5512	22397	7388	3394	21678	11949	4200	13021	5114	20808	7948	7664	20840	4339	8917	6203	7061	26895	7001	8220	4987	3587	26570	6152	5697	24902	7856	7904	2981	7670	6796	14999	9027	6069	7648	19822	12264	34132	17374	24244	9427	62715	36684	4919	21676	6585	6884	7479	48471	20607	12695	2787	53143	8260	26118	3461	16253	2248	3302	6832	12470	7706	12478	3190	20108	4400	1563	11634	6185	7294	23598	8453	35618	11307	6341	1978	6032	8667	6386	5537	22172	9484	3032	10082	12510	6092	18214	17498	7402	30714	8557	4962	23131	9501	3456	9668	4560	15626	9161	14267	4176	13871	10915	32932	9318	6213	9244	10635	21336	4586	10866	2628	21323	6106	4879	21352	6612	5517	6854	1657	1886	23254	34215	5577	5370	23921	5054	6887	43655	15031	15508	14665	5967	4217	4818	5823	7326	15217	1655	5341	7531	4505	18828	5541	4695	5884	8116	5455	8664	11360	14777	14773	22444	7416	7831	17063	8545	5354	6029	3408	20973	15905	20092	5182	3754	22094	15938	13382	17571	11470	18404	5414	5545	2992	10982	9978	5396	2922	11451	6297	17894	8036	4225	996	28875	16570	5700	4863	7441	5170	25709	25766	24928	22213	17857	7153	7936	5847	7919	4986	8225	6366	1176	4426	8933	4684	8091	4092	6498	14224	29099	17249	4938	8491	24274	6865	8241	24807	6089	5321	11476	6431	10727	6649	5566	12261
2021-04-27	7175	5842	2897	8582	8382	5944	8263	9634	9788	11750	3853	23610	30490	19440	4273	17650	8226	8175	8237	13510	22530	22380	101400	7078	18160	9217	5959	26190	4971	25320	7085	49460	10810	6756	28630	12590	14540	30840	6034	24360	6248	9108	7132	9935	17270	13430	14520	5779	14110	7096	10130	26170	8215	10760	8359	7350	15980	12510	12690	9114	20900	21730	6150	4903	4275	7928	17030	2474	11340	3869	3152	5836	14220	2567	38020	23800	2832	7953	30910	8569	7534	10360	4275	20140	2987	12170	23710	11880	7843	26810	4185	6943	31150	6358	3034	4198	5163	4869	8216	6407	2859	4817	4802	18250	9633	8877	5848	7361	29780	12440	5254	7036	4984	6714	5256	5591	5912	11400	9614	8065	13780	8186	41620	6391	3861	10280	5514	22400	7392	3398	21690	11950	4201	13030	5117	20810	7950	7668	20850	4342	8923	6203	7064	26900	7006	8222	4994	3591	26590	6156	5698	24920	7860	7913	2984	7682	6798	15000	9034	6080	7648	19850	12270	34170	17380	24250	9430	62800	36740	4920	21680	6587	6886	7482	48490	20630	12700	2788	53220	8276	26120	3464	16260	2250	3304	6837	12480	7710	12480	3192	20120	4402	1569	11640	6188	7300	23620	8461	35630	11310	6346	1981	6038	8672	6388	5540	22200	9501	3032	10090	12520	6095	18230	17510	7404	30730	8564	4964	23160	9508	3457	9671	4567	15650	9164	14270	4178	13870	10930	32940	9321	6214	9249	10640	21350	4587	10870	2630	21350	6107	4879	21370	6618	5519	6856	1658	1888	23260	34250	5580	5374	23930	5061	6889	43730	15030	15530	14680	5971	4222	4820	5828	7329	15220	1659	5350	7536	4507	18870	5544	4697	5887	8119	5461	8666	11360	14810	14780	22450	7418	7833	17070	8547	5355	6032	3411	20980	15910	20110	5184	3756	22110	15940	13390	17580	11480	18420	5419	5546	2994	10990	9980	5399	2923	11460	6300	17900	8038	4227	997	28890	16570	5703	4864	7442	5174	25740	25790	24940	22230	17870	7156	7940	5853	7922	4991	8228	6369	1177	4430	8936	4687	8099	4094	6510	14240	29130	17260	4940	8497	24280	6868	8246	24830	6092	5323	11480	6433	10730	6651	5568	12270
2021-04-28	7192	5854	2898	8584	8383	5954	8270	9637	9788	11750	3856	23620	30520	19470	4276	17650	8228	8185	8240	13510	22550	22390	101400	7085	18170	9220	5962	26200	4982	25330	7090	49540	10820	6761	28640	12590	14550	30860	6035	24360	6249	9110	7135	9937	17280	13430	14520	5787	14120	7097	10140	26170	8217	10770	8362	7362	15990	12510	12700	9119	20910	21740	6156	4904	4275	7933	17040	2480	11350	3871	3155	5843	14220	2567	38030	23810	2834	7957	30910	8569	7538	10370	4280	20150	2987	12190	23740	11890	7843	26830	4193	6957	31170	6363	3036	4198	5164	4871	8219	6412	2863	4822	4812	18270	9638	8881	5850	7361	29790	12440	5255	7041	4984	6734	5258	5600	5912	11440	9621	8065	13790	8189	41660	6394	3862	10280	5517	22410	7397	3404	21700	11950	4201	13040	5119	20820	7951	7675	20860	4343	8932	6204	7069	26900	7006	8227	5000	3601	26610	6165	5700	24930	7866	7924	2987	7690	6802	15010	9042	6088	7655	19910	12280	34220	17390	24260	9433	62870	36780	4923	21690	6589	6891	7487	48500	20670	12700	2788	53280	8294	26130	3469	16270	2251	3307	6839	12480	7710	12490	3193	20140	4404	1572	11640	6192	7306	23640	8464	35650	11310	6354	1984	6044	8686	6389	5540	22250	9505	3032	10100	12530	6100	18250	17520	7404	30760	8567	4968	23180	9512	3458	9673	4572	15670	9165	14280	4183	13880	10940	32960	9325	6217	9250	10650	21350	4588	10880	2631	21370	6108	4879	21410	6624	5519	6856	1660	1889	23280	34270	5583	5379	23930	5061	6890	43790	15040	15540	14690	5976	4222	4825	5830	7332	15230	1662	5358	7550	4508	18910	5545	4701	5894	8127	5466	8666	11370	14820	14780	22450	7421	7840	17080	8550	5358	6036	3415	21000	15930	20130	5191	3757	22120	15950	13400	17600	11490	18430	5423	5546	2996	10990	9990	5405	2924	11460	6303	17900	8038	4230	997	28900	16580	5705	4865	7446	5178	25770	25810	24950	22240	17880	7161	7946	5861	7922	5001	8231	6370	1177	4435	8938	4689	8110	4098	6515	14240	29160	17260	4942	8501	24290	6874	8247	24830	6095	5326	11480	6435	10740	6653	5570	12270
2021-04-29	7206	5861	2899	8584	8387	5961	8274	9639	9792	11760	3858	23630	30540	19500	4278	17650	8231	8190	8245	13510	22560	22400	101500	7091	18180	9222	5964	26220	4987	25340	7094	49600	10820	6764	28650	12600	14550	30890	6039	24360	6250	9112	7138	9940	17290	13430	14530	5796	14130	7099	10140	26180	8218	10770	8364	7372	15990	12520	12700	9124	20920	21750	6160	4908	4275	7936	17060	2484	11350	3872	3157	5849	14230	2567	38040	23830	2837	7961	30920	8569	7543	10370	4284	20160	2987	12210	23780	11890	7843	26840	4200	6968	31180	6369	3039	4198	5167	4875	8222	6416	2867	4825	4820	18290	9641	8889	5853	7361	29800	12440	5256	7045	4985	6748	5259	5606	5912	11470	9626	8065	13790	8193	41710	6396	3862	10280	5521	22410	7401	3409	21710	11950	4201	13040	5122	20820	7952	7682	20870	4344	8939	6205	7073	26910	7006	8230	5005	3609	26630	6171	5700	24940	7870	7934	2990	7700	6805	15020	9050	6094	7658	19960	12280	34270	17390	24270	9437	62950	36820	4923	21690	6592	6893	7491	48510	20700	12710	2788	53330	8305	26140	3473	16280	2253	3310	6841	12480	7713	12500	3195	20150	4406	1576	11650	6195	7310	23660	8467	35670	11320	6361	1986	6047	8696	6391	5540	22290	9515	3034	10100	12540	6104	18270	17530	7405	30780	8572	4970	23200	9521	3459	9676	4578	15680	9168	14280	4187	13890	10940	32980	9328	6218	9252	10660	21360	4590	10880	2633	21390	6110	4879	21440	6630	5520	6857	1662	1890	23290	34290	5586	5382	23940	5065	6892	43830	15040	15560	14700	5977	4223	4828	5833	7334	15240	1665	5364	7559	4510	18930	5546	4704	5899	8133	5469	8667	11370	14830	14790	22460	7423	7844	17080	8553	5361	6040	3419	21020	15940	20150	5193	3758	22130	15950	13400	17610	11490	18440	5426	5546	2998	11000	9990	5410	2925	11460	6306	17910	8039	4232	997	28910	16600	5710	4866	7449	5181	25800	25820	24950	22260	17890	7166	7951	5866	7923	5008	8234	6372	1177	4439	8942	4691	8121	4100	6518	14250	29170	17280	4945	8505	24300	6879	8249	24840	6098	5329	11480	6437	10750	6656	5572	12270
2021-04-30	7216	5869	2899	8584	8390	5966	8278	9643	9795	11770	3859	23640	30560	19520	4280	17660	8234	8193	8252	13520	22570	22400	101500	7096	18190	9224	5966	26240	4989	25340	7098	49660	10820	6764	28670	12600	14560	30910	6039	24360	6251	9113	7139	9942	17290	13430	14540	5804	14130	7101	10150	26190	8219	10770	8366	7380	16000	12520	12700	9129	20930	21750	6163	4910	4275	7939	17070	2487	11350	3873	3159	5852	14240	2567	38060	23840	2839	7964	30930	8569	7548	10370	4288	20160	2987	12230	23800	11910	7843	26850	4207	6977	31200	6377	3041	4198	5172	4878	8225	6420	2870	4827	4827	18310	9644	8898	5855	7363	29810	12440	5257	7048	4986	6759	5259	5610	5912	11490	9630	8066	13790	8196	41760	6398	3863	10280	5523	22420	7406	3414	21710	11960	4202	13050	5124	20830	7954	7688	20880	4346	8945	6206	7077	26910	7006	8233	5009	3616	26650	6176	5703	24950	7873	7945	2993	7706	6807	15020	9057	6098	7661	19990	12290	34310	17400	24270	9438	63010	36850	4924	21690	6593	6899	7494	48520	20730	12710	2789	53380	8312	26140	3475	16280	2255	3312	6844	12490	7716	12510	3197	20160	4408	1581	11650	6199	7313	23680	8473	35680	11320	6368	1989	6049	8704	6393	5542	22330	9527	3035	10110	12540	6107	18280	17540	7407	30810	8578	4973	23220	9532	3460	9678	4585	15700	9171	14290	4190	13890	10950	32990	9331	6220	9254	10670	21360	4591	10890	2635	21400	6112	4880	21460	6636	5521	6859	1664	1891	23300	34310	5589	5387	23950	5069	6894	43860	15040	15570	14700	5980	4226	4832	5837	7337	15260	1669	5369	7566	4511	18950	5549	4707	5902	8137	5469	8668	11370	14850	14790	22470	7425	7847	17090	8555	5363	6043	3422	21030	15950	20160	5195	3759	22130	15950	13400	17620	11500	18450	5427	5547	3000	11000	9990	5415	2926	11460	6309	17910	8039	4234	997	28920	16600	5712	4867	7451	5184	25830	25830	24960	22270	17890	7172	7955	5871	7924	5014	8236	6377	1177	4443	8943	4693	8131	4103	6521	14260	29180	17290	4947	8510	24310	6883	8253	24850	6101	5331	11490	6439	10760	6657	5573	12280
2021-05-01	7227	5876	2900	8586	8394	5971	8280	9645	9796	11770	3860	23650	30570	19540	4281	17660	8238	8197	8254	13520	22580	22410	101500	7100	18200	9227	5968	26250	4994	25350	7101	49710	10820	6764	28680	12600	14560	30930	6040	24370	6252	9115	7140	9945	17300	13430	14540	5812	14140	7101	10150	26190	8220	10770	8368	7388	16010	12520	12700	9134	20930	21760	6166	4913	4277	7945	17090	2491	11350	3873	3161	5853	14240	2567	38070	23850	2842	7967	30940	8570	7552	10380	4291	20170	2988	12250	23820	11910	7844	26860	4214	6986	31210	6385	3043	4199	5177	4878	8228	6423	2872	4829	4833	18330	9646	8899	5858	7365	29820	12450	5259	7051	4987	6769	5262	5616	5915	11510	9633	8067	13800	8198	41800	6400	3863	10280	5523	22430	7410	3418	21720	11960	4202	13060	5127	20830	7955	7694	20890	4348	8950	6206	7080	26910	7006	8235	5011	3622	26660	6181	5703	24970	7874	7955	2996	7711	6810	15030	9064	6102	7667	20030	12300	34340	17400	24280	9438	63060	36870	4924	21700	6595	6902	7497	48520	20750	12710	2789	53430	8316	26150	3475	16290	2256	3314	6844	12500	7719	12510	3199	20170	4409	1586	11650	6202	7317	23700	8475	35700	11330	6376	1991	6054	8710	6393	5543	22360	9540	3035	10110	12550	6111	18290	17550	7408	30830	8583	4975	23230	9533	3461	9681	4592	15710	9171	14290	4193	13900	10950	33010	9334	6222	9254	10680	21370	4592	10890	2637	21410	6113	4880	21480	6642	5523	6860	1666	1893	23310	34320	5592	5388	23950	5074	6895	43890	15050	15580	14700	5980	4229	4834	5840	7340	15260	1672	5374	7573	4513	18980	5551	4709	5906	8141	5469	8670	11370	14860	14800	22470	7427	7850	17090	8558	5364	6046	3425	21040	15950	20180	5197	3760	22140	15960	13400	17620	11510	18450	5428	5548	3001	11000	9990	5416	2927	11460	6312	17910	8040	4236	998	28930	16610	5713	4869	7453	5188	25840	25840	24970	22270	17890	7177	7959	5871	7926	5020	8239	6379	1178	4447	8945	4696	8141	4105	6521	14280	29190	17290	4949	8515	24310	6886	8256	24860	6104	5331	11490	6441	10760	6659	5575	12290
2021-05-02	7236	5879	2901	8587	8399	5974	8284	9648	9799	11780	3862	23650	30590	19560	4283	17660	8241	8202	8263	13530	22590	22410	101600	7105	18210	9229	5970	26270	4999	25360	7104	49750	10820	6768	28690	12600	14570	30950	6042	24370	6254	9116	7142	9948	17300	13440	14560	5821	14150	7103	10150	26200	8221	10770	8370	7395	16020	12530	12710	9138	20950	21760	6169	4916	4278	7954	17110	2493	11360	3874	3162	5859	14250	2567	38090	23860	2844	7970	30940	8572	7555	10380	4295	20170	2989	12270	23850	11910	7845	26870	4221	6994	31220	6394	3045	4201	5183	4879	8231	6427	2874	4833	4840	18340	9648	8907	5860	7367	29820	12450	5261	7053	4989	6778	5266	5623	5919	11530	9636	8069	13800	8201	41850	6403	3865	10280	5524	22430	7414	3422	21730	11960	4204	13060	5130	20840	7957	7701	20900	4351	8956	6207	7083	26920	7006	8237	5015	3628	26680	6186	5705	24980	7880	7964	2998	7712	6812	15030	9071	6104	7670	20060	12300	34370	17400	24290	9442	63110	36890	4925	21700	6597	6907	7500	48530	20770	12710	2790	53480	8319	26150	3475	16300	2258	3317	6849	12510	7723	12520	3201	20180	4411	1591	11650	6205	7322	23720	8477	35710	11340	6383	1994	6061	8716	6399	5546	22400	9554	3040	10110	12560	6114	18310	17550	7410	30860	8589	4976	23230	9537	3462	9684	4599	15720	9176	14290	4195	13910	10960	33020	9337	6223	9257	10690	21370	4592	10900	2640	21410	6115	4880	21500	6648	5525	6862	1668	1894	23320	34330	5595	5389	23960	5080	6897	43920	15060	15590	14710	5981	4233	4837	5844	7342	15260	1676	5378	7578	4515	18990	5554	4711	5909	8145	5475	8674	11380	14860	14800	22480	7429	7853	17090	8560	5369	6049	3429	21050	15960	20190	5198	3762	22150	15960	13400	17630	11520	18460	5432	5549	3003	11010	10000	5420	2928	11460	6315	17920	8044	4238	998	28950	16620	5716	4870	7454	5192	25870	25850	24980	22280	17900	7183	7963	5875	7929	5025	8242	6381	1179	4451	8947	4698	8150	4107	6528	14290	29200	17300	4951	8520	24310	6889	8261	24860	6106	5333	11490	6443	10770	6661	5577	12300
2021-05-03	7244	5886	2902	8591	8403	5978	8288	9652	9801	11790	3863	23660	30600	19580	4284	17670	8245	8206	8269	13540	22610	22420	101600	7109	18220	9232	5972	26300	5002	25360	7107	49800	10820	6771	28700	12600	14580	30980	6043	24380	6255	9118	7144	9952	17310	13440	14560	5829	14150	7106	10160	26200	8222	10780	8372	7402	16020	12530	12710	9143	20960	21770	6172	4919	4281	7959	17130	2496	11360	3874	3164	5867	14250	2569	38120	23880	2847	7972	30950	8574	7559	10380	4298	20180	2990	12280	23880	11920	7846	26870	4228	7002	31240	6403	3047	4202	5189	4881	8233	6430	2877	4835	4846	18360	9653	8915	5864	7370	29830	12450	5263	7056	4991	6787	5268	5627	5924	11550	9638	8071	13810	8202	41900	6404	3868	10280	5525	22440	7418	3425	21740	11960	4205	13070	5132	20840	7959	7707	20910	4353	8961	6209	7086	26920	7006	8240	5021	3633	26690	6190	5706	25000	7885	7972	3001	7720	6814	15040	9078	6109	7682	20090	12310	34410	17410	24300	9450	63190	36920	4926	21710	6599	6913	7503	48540	20790	12710	2791	53530	8327	26150	3476	16300	2260	3319	6850	12520	7727	12520	3202	20190	4413	1597	11660	6208	7326	23730	8483	35730	11340	6390	1996	6065	8721	6403	5548	22430	9569	3042	10120	12560	6117	18320	17560	7413	30890	8595	4978	23250	9544	3463	9687	4606	15730	9181	14300	4197	13920	10960	33030	9340	6224	9259	10700	21370	4593	10910	2642	21430	6117	4881	21520	6654	5527	6864	1670	1895	23340	34340	5598	5393	23970	5086	6899	43960	15060	15600	14710	5983	4237	4840	5849	7345	15270	1679	5385	7583	4517	19010	5556	4714	5912	8148	5477	8675	11380	14870	14800	22480	7431	7855	17100	8562	5373	6052	3432	21060	15970	20210	5200	3763	22150	15970	13400	17630	11530	18480	5433	5551	3005	11020	10000	5425	2929	11470	6318	17920	8045	4239	999	28960	16640	5716	4871	7456	5195	25900	25860	24980	22290	17910	7188	7967	5882	7931	5030	8245	6386	1180	4455	8951	4701	8160	4109	6533	14300	29220	17320	4953	8526	24310	6892	8265	24870	6109	5334	11500	6444	10780	6663	5579	12310

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-04-27 to 2021-05-03

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Amber Valley	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastleigh	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-04-26	7166	5827	2896	8581	8377	5941	8259	9628	9787	11738	3852	23600	30480	19417	4272	17644	8222	8169	8235	13505	22516	22377	101301	7074	18155	9215	5957	26173	4960	25314	7082	49410	10811	6753	28610	12587	14541	30819	6032	24354	6246	9106	7128	9929	17258	13425	14505	5770	14107	7096	10120	26159	8214	10763	8357	7343	15970	12503	12689	9109	20901	21727	6147	4903	4272	7921	17003	2472	11338	3869	3150	5829	14207	2565	38019	23785	2829	7950	30898	8567	7527	10357	4271	20126	2986	12151	23660	11870	7842	26794	4179	6935	31135	6350	3032	4196	5156	4869	8213	6404	2856	4813	4797	18231	9632	8877	5842	7358	29776	12434	5252	7034	4982	6705	5256	5580	5906	11384	9612	8064	13772	8177	41577	6386	3859	10274	5512	22397	7388	3394	21678	11949	4200	13021	5114	20808	7948	7664	20840	4339	8917	6203	7061	26895	7001	8220	4987	3587	26570	6152	5697	24902	7856	7904	2981	7670	6796	14999	9027	6069	7648	19822	12264	34132	17374	24244	9427	62715	36684	4919	21676	6585	6884	7479	48471	20607	12695	2787	53143	8260	26118	3461	16253	2248	3302	6832	12470	7706	12478	3190	20108	4400	1563	11634	6185	7294	23598	8453	35618	11307	6341	1978	6032	8667	6386	5537	22172	9484	3032	10082	12510	6092	18214	17498	7402	30714	8557	4962	23131	9501	3456	9668	4560	15626	9161	14267	4176	13871	10915	32932	9318	6213	9244	10635	21336	4586	10866	2628	21323	6106	4879	21352	6612	5517	6854	1657	1886	23254	34215	5577	5370	23921	5054	6887	43655	15031	15508	14665	5967	4217	4818	5823	7326	15217	1655	5341	7531	4505	18828	5541	4695	5884	8116	5455	8664	11360	14777	14773	22444	7416	7831	17063	8545	5354	6029	3408	20973	15905	20092	5182	3754	22094	15938	13382	17571	11470	18404	5414	5545	2992	10982	9978	5396	2922	11451	6297	17894	8036	4225	996	28875	16570	5700	4863	7441	5170	25709	25766	24928	22213	17857	7153	7936	5847	7919	4986	8225	6366	1176	4426	8933	4684	8091	4092	6498	14224	29099	17249	4938	8491	24274	6865	8241	24807	6089	5321	11476	6431	10727	6649	5566	12261
2021-04-27	7173	5833	2897	8582	8384	5943	8264	9629	9789	11750	3853	23610	30490	19440	4273	17650	8227	8176	8240	13510	22530	22380	101300	7078	18160	9218	5957	26190	4965	25330	7086	49450	10810	6756	28630	12590	14550	30840	6034	24360	6247	9109	7130	9933	17270	13430	14520	5779	14110	7098	10130	26170	8215	10770	8358	7350	15980	12510	12690	9113	20910	21730	6151	4906	4276	7926	17030	2476	11340	3870	3151	5834	14220	2567	38040	23800	2831	7953	30910	8571	7530	10360	4275	20130	2987	12170	23690	11880	7843	26800	4184	6944	31150	6360	3034	4198	5164	4871	8216	6408	2859	4817	4804	18250	9636	8885	5845	7362	29780	12440	5254	7036	4985	6715	5259	5587	5910	11410	9614	8065	13780	8180	41630	6389	3861	10280	5513	22400	7392	3398	21690	11950	4202	13030	5115	20820	7950	7669	20850	4341	8922	6204	7065	26900	7011	8223	4991	3591	26590	6156	5700	24920	7861	7914	2984	7677	6799	15000	9034	6076	7657	19830	12270	34170	17380	24250	9431	62770	36710	4920	21680	6587	6888	7483	48480	20630	12700	2788	53190	8264	26120	3463	16260	2250	3304	6835	12480	7711	12480	3192	20120	4402	1571	11640	6190	7297	23620	8458	35630	11310	6348	1981	6037	8672	6390	5540	22200	9504	3036	10090	12520	6095	18230	17510	7406	30730	8564	4965	23150	9508	3457	9672	4566	15640	9168	14270	4178	13880	10920	32950	9322	6215	9247	10640	21340	4587	10870	2629	21340	6108	4880	21370	6618	5519	6856	1658	1889	23270	34220	5582	5372	23930	5066	6890	43690	15040	15520	14670	5970	4222	4821	5827	7328	15220	1658	5346	7533	4509	18850	5546	4698	5887	8120	5459	8666	11370	14790	14780	22450	7417	7835	17070	8546	5358	6032	3411	20980	15910	20110	5183	3755	22100	15940	13390	17580	11480	18420	5418	5546	2994	10990	9982	5401	2923	11450	6301	17900	8039	4226	997	28880	16580	5703	4863	7443	5175	25730	25780	24940	22230	17870	7155	7939	5853	7922	4992	8228	6370	1177	4431	8936	4687	8099	4093	6508	14240	29110	17270	4941	8495	24280	6867	8248	24820	6092	5323	11480	6433	10730	6651	5570	12270
2021-04-28	7186	5843	2899	8584	8393	5948	8271	9631	9791	11760	3854	23620	30510	19460	4275	17650	8230	8184	8243	13520	22550	22380	101400	7083	18170	9221	5958	26210	4972	25340	7090	49510	10810	6759	28640	12590	14550	30860	6036	24370	6248	9111	7131	9936	17280	13430	14520	5789	14120	7100	10130	26170	8217	10770	8360	7359	15990	12520	12690	9115	20920	21740	6155	4909	4278	7930	17060	2481	11350	3871	3153	5837	14220	2568	38060	23810	2834	7956	30920	8575	7534	10370	4279	20140	2987	12190	23710	11880	7845	26820	4189	6956	31180	6370	3036	4199	5170	4874	8219	6411	2862	4820	4813	18260	9640	8892	5847	7364	29790	12440	5256	7041	4987	6728	5261	5593	5913	11430	9619	8066	13780	8183	41700	6393	3863	10280	5515	22410	7397	3402	21700	11950	4203	13040	5118	20820	7952	7676	20850	4344	8928	6206	7068	26910	7016	8226	4996	3599	26610	6160	5703	24930	7867	7919	2988	7682	6802	15010	9041	6083	7665	19850	12280	34220	17380	24260	9433	62830	36750	4922	21690	6590	6894	7488	48500	20650	12700	2789	53230	8274	26130	3466	16270	2253	3306	6837	12490	7713	12490	3195	20130	4404	1577	11640	6194	7299	23640	8463	35650	11320	6358	1982	6041	8679	6391	5541	22250	9515	3038	10090	12530	6097	18240	17520	7407	30760	8570	4967	23160	9513	3458	9674	4574	15650	9172	14280	4180	13890	10930	32960	9326	6218	9248	10660	21340	4588	10880	2631	21350	6110	4880	21400	6625	5521	6858	1659	1890	23280	34240	5585	5374	23940	5075	6893	43740	15050	15530	14680	5974	4229	4825	5832	7330	15230	1659	5351	7538	4512	18880	5547	4702	5891	8124	5463	8666	11370	14800	14780	22460	7419	7839	17070	8549	5362	6036	3415	21000	15920	20120	5188	3757	22110	15950	13390	17590	11490	18430	5421	5546	2995	10990	9985	5405	2924	11460	6304	17900	8041	4228	998	28890	16590	5705	4864	7445	5178	25750	25790	24950	22240	17880	7158	7944	5858	7924	4997	8231	6372	1178	4437	8937	4689	8110	4095	6511	14260	29120	17280	4943	8500	24300	6869	8253	24820	6097	5325	11480	6435	10740	6652	5572	12280
2021-04-29	7200	5852	2900	8584	8400	5952	8275	9632	9795	11760	3856	23630	30520	19480	4276	17650	8233	8191	8247	13520	22560	22390	101400	7087	18180	9223	5961	26230	4977	25340	7093	49550	10810	6762	28660	12590	14550	30880	6039	24370	6248	9113	7134	9939	17290	13430	14530	5799	14120	7102	10140	26180	8218	10770	8361	7366	15990	12520	12690	9117	20920	21750	6158	4912	4279	7932	17080	2485	11350	3871	3154	5842	14240	2570	38070	23830	2837	7958	30930	8579	7538	10370	4282	20150	2988	12210	23740	11890	7846	26830	4195	6967	31190	6382	3038	4199	5179	4879	8222	6415	2865	4822	4821	18280	9644	8901	5850	7367	29800	12440	5258	7043	4989	6741	5263	5600	5915	11460	9622	8067	13790	8184	41770	6397	3865	10280	5517	22420	7400	3406	21710	11960	4204	13050	5120	20820	7954	7682	20860	4347	8934	6207	7070	26910	7021	8229	5001	3606	26630	6164	5705	24950	7871	7925	2992	7688	6805	15020	9048	6089	7670	19860	12280	34260	17390	24270	9436	62900	36780	4923	21690	6592	6897	7492	48520	20670	12700	2791	53270	8280	26130	3468	16280	2255	3308	6839	12500	7716	12500	3197	20140	4406	1582	11640	6200	7301	23650	8468	35660	11320	6368	1984	6043	8684	6393	5542	22290	9528	3040	10100	12530	6099	18260	17520	7409	30770	8575	4969	23180	9520	3458	9675	4583	15660	9177	14280	4182	13890	10930	32970	9329	6221	9250	10670	21350	4589	10880	2633	21370	6111	4882	21420	6631	5523	6859	1661	1892	23290	34240	5588	5376	23950	5085	6895	43770	15050	15540	14690	5976	4235	4828	5836	7333	15240	1660	5355	7541	4514	18910	5550	4704	5895	8128	5465	8667	11370	14810	14790	22470	7420	7843	17080	8550	5365	6039	3419	21010	15930	20120	5190	3759	22120	15950	13400	17590	11500	18440	5423	5547	2996	11000	9989	5409	2926	11460	6308	17910	8043	4229	999	28900	16590	5709	4865	7446	5180	25770	25800	24950	22250	17880	7160	7947	5863	7927	5002	8234	6374	1179	4443	8938	4692	8122	4097	6513	14270	29130	17290	4944	8504	24310	6871	8258	24830	6099	5327	11480	6436	10750	6654	5573	12290
2021-04-30	7210	5861	2901	8584	8407	5956	8278	9634	9798	11770	3857	23630	30530	19500	4276	17660	8237	8197	8251	13530	22570	22390	101500	7091	18190	9226	5962	26250	4980	25350	7096	49590	10820	6763	28680	12600	14560	30900	6040	24370	6249	9115	7135	9941	17290	13430	14540	5809	14130	7104	10150	26190	8219	10770	8362	7373	16000	12520	12700	9120	20930	21750	6161	4915	4281	7935	17110	2489	11350	3872	3155	5845	14240	2571	38090	23840	2840	7961	30940	8582	7541	10370	4284	20160	2988	12230	23760	11900	7848	26830	4202	6977	31210	6392	3040	4200	5188	4882	8224	6418	2869	4823	4828	18290	9648	8909	5852	7370	29810	12450	5259	7045	4992	6753	5264	5603	5918	11480	9625	8068	13790	8186	41830	6400	3866	10280	5519	22420	7403	3409	21710	11960	4206	13060	5123	20830	7956	7688	20860	4349	8939	6208	7072	26920	7028	8231	5004	3613	26650	6167	5707	24960	7875	7931	2995	7692	6808	15020	9054	6094	7675	19870	12290	34300	17390	24280	9436	62950	36810	4924	21700	6594	6902	7496	48530	20680	12710	2792	53310	8285	26140	3470	16290	2257	3310	6842	12510	7718	12500	3200	20150	4408	1588	11640	6203	7302	23670	8473	35680	11330	6378	1985	6045	8689	6395	5544	22330	9542	3041	10100	12540	6101	18270	17530	7410	30800	8581	4971	23190	9529	3459	9677	4593	15670	9181	14290	4183	13900	10940	32980	9333	6224	9252	10680	21350	4590	10890	2634	21380	6113	4883	21430	6637	5524	6861	1662	1893	23310	34250	5590	5379	23960	5095	6898	43800	15060	15550	14690	5978	4243	4831	5838	7335	15240	1661	5359	7545	4517	18940	5552	4707	5898	8132	5466	8668	11380	14830	14790	22470	7421	7846	17080	8552	5367	6042	3423	21020	15930	20130	5192	3760	22120	15960	13400	17600	11510	18450	5424	5548	2997	11010	9991	5413	2928	11460	6311	17910	8044	4230	1000	28910	16600	5712	4866	7447	5182	25780	25810	24960	22260	17890	7163	7951	5867	7930	5007	8236	6379	1179	4449	8939	4694	8135	4098	6516	14280	29130	17300	4945	8509	24320	6873	8263	24840	6101	5329	11490	6437	10750	6655	5574	12290
2021-05-01	7223	5870	2902	8586	8413	5959	8281	9635	9800	11770	3858	23640	30540	19520	4277	17660	8240	8203	8254	13530	22580	22400	101500	7095	18200	9229	5963	26260	4985	25360	7099	49630	10820	6765	28690	12600	14560	30920	6041	24380	6250	9116	7137	9944	17300	13440	14540	5818	14130	7106	10150	26200	8219	10770	8363	7380	16010	12530	12700	9122	20940	21760	6164	4917	4282	7938	17130	2493	11360	3873	3156	5848	14250	2572	38100	23850	2843	7965	30940	8587	7545	10380	4286	20170	2989	12250	23770	11900	7849	26840	4207	6986	31220	6402	3042	4201	5194	4883	8226	6421	2871	4824	4837	18300	9650	8914	5855	7373	29820	12450	5260	7047	4994	6765	5266	5609	5921	11510	9628	8069	13800	8187	41900	6403	3867	10280	5519	22430	7407	3412	21720	11960	4207	13070	5125	20830	7958	7692	20870	4351	8945	6209	7073	26920	7032	8234	5008	3620	26660	6170	5709	24980	7879	7938	2999	7695	6810	15030	9059	6099	7680	19880	12300	34330	17400	24290	9436	62990	36830	4926	21700	6596	6906	7499	48550	20700	12710	2793	53350	8290	26140	3471	16290	2259	3312	6844	12520	7720	12510	3203	20160	4410	1593	11640	6206	7303	23680	8476	35690	11330	6389	1987	6049	8693	6396	5545	22380	9556	3042	10110	12540	6103	18280	17530	7412	30820	8585	4972	23200	9533	3459	9678	4603	15680	9185	14290	4185	13910	10950	33000	9336	6226	9253	10700	21350	4591	10890	2636	21380	6114	4883	21450	6643	5526	6863	1663	1894	23310	34260	5592	5379	23970	5105	6900	43840	15060	15560	14690	5980	4250	4834	5843	7337	15250	1663	5364	7550	4520	18970	5555	4710	5900	8135	5467	8668	11380	14840	14790	22480	7422	7849	17090	8554	5370	6045	3427	21030	15940	20140	5194	3762	22130	15960	13400	17600	11510	18460	5425	5549	2998	11010	9993	5417	2929	11460	6314	17910	8046	4230	1000	28910	16600	5714	4866	7449	5184	25790	25820	24970	22270	17890	7166	7954	5870	7930	5012	8239	6381	1180	4454	8940	4696	8148	4100	6518	14290	29140	17300	4946	8513	24320	6874	8267	24840	6103	5330	11490	6438	10760	6657	5575	12300
2021-05-02	7233	5879	2903	8586	8420	5962	8285	9637	9802	11780	3859	23650	30550	19540	4278	17660	8243	8209	8260	13540	22590	22400	101500	7099	18210	9231	5966	26280	4990	25360	7102	49670	10820	6767	28710	12600	14560	30940	6042	24380	6250	9118	7139	9948	17300	13440	14550	5828	14140	7107	10160	26200	8221	10770	8364	7387	16010	12530	12700	9124	20950	21760	6166	4919	4284	7942	17160	2497	11360	3874	3158	5854	14260	2574	38120	23860	2846	7967	30950	8592	7549	10380	4288	20180	2990	12260	23800	11910	7851	26850	4214	6996	31240	6413	3044	4202	5202	4883	8229	6425	2874	4827	4845	18310	9653	8920	5859	7376	29830	12450	5261	7050	4996	6776	5268	5616	5925	11530	9630	8070	13800	8188	41960	6406	3869	10290	5520	22430	7410	3415	21730	11960	4208	13070	5127	20840	7960	7700	20880	4354	8950	6210	7075	26930	7038	8236	5012	3626	26680	6174	5712	24990	7884	7944	3003	7699	6812	15030	9065	6103	7684	19900	12300	34360	17400	24300	9438	63040	36860	4928	21710	6598	6910	7502	48560	20710	12720	2794	53400	8295	26150	3472	16300	2261	3314	6846	12530	7722	12510	3206	20170	4411	1599	11640	6210	7305	23700	8481	35710	11340	6399	1988	6054	8697	6399	5547	22420	9570	3045	10110	12550	6105	18290	17540	7414	30840	8591	4973	23220	9537	3460	9680	4612	15680	9190	14290	4186	13910	10950	33010	9339	6229	9256	10710	21350	4592	10890	2638	21400	6116	4883	21460	6650	5528	6865	1665	1895	23320	34260	5595	5380	23970	5115	6902	43870	15070	15570	14700	5981	4257	4837	5849	7339	15250	1664	5368	7558	4523	19000	5558	4712	5903	8138	5471	8670	11390	14850	14800	22490	7423	7851	17090	8556	5373	6048	3431	21040	15950	20150	5196	3764	22130	15970	13400	17610	11520	18460	5428	5551	2999	11020	9996	5421	2929	11460	6318	17920	8048	4231	1002	28920	16600	5718	4867	7450	5186	25810	25840	24970	22280	17900	7170	7958	5874	7931	5016	8242	6384	1181	4459	8941	4699	8161	4102	6521	14300	29150	17310	4947	8518	24330	6876	8272	24850	6106	5332	11490	6439	10760	6658	5577	12310
2021-05-03	7246	5891	2904	8588	8427	5965	8289	9641	9804	11790	3860	23660	30570	19550	4278	17670	8247	8215	8264	13540	22600	22400	101600	7104	18210	9234	5968	26310	4995	25370	7106	49720	10820	6771	28720	12600	14560	30960	6043	24390	6251	9119	7141	9952	17310	13440	14560	5839	14140	7109	10160	26200	8222	10770	8365	7393	16020	12540	12700	9126	20960	21770	6169	4921	4285	7946	17190	2501	11360	3874	3160	5860	14270	2575	38140	23870	2849	7970	30960	8596	7553	10380	4290	20180	2990	12280	23830	11920	7853	26860	4220	7006	31260	6426	3045	4202	5210	4886	8231	6428	2877	4828	4853	18320	9657	8926	5862	7379	29840	12450	5262	7053	4998	6788	5270	5623	5929	11550	9633	8072	13800	8190	42030	6410	3872	10290	5521	22440	7414	3418	21740	11960	4210	13080	5129	20840	7962	7706	20880	4357	8955	6212	7076	26930	7043	8238	5016	3632	26700	6178	5713	25010	7888	7949	3007	7703	6814	15030	9074	6108	7690	19910	12310	34410	17400	24310	9441	63110	36890	4929	21710	6600	6914	7505	48580	20720	12720	2795	53440	8304	26160	3474	16310	2263	3316	6848	12540	7725	12520	3208	20170	4413	1606	11650	6213	7307	23720	8486	35730	11350	6410	1990	6057	8701	6402	5549	22470	9584	3046	10120	12560	6107	18310	17550	7416	30860	8597	4975	23230	9543	3460	9682	4622	15690	9195	14300	4187	13920	10960	33020	9343	6231	9260	10730	21360	4592	10900	2640	21410	6118	4884	21490	6656	5530	6867	1666	1896	23340	34270	5599	5383	23980	5125	6904	43910	15080	15570	14710	5983	4265	4840	5854	7341	15260	1666	5374	7563	4525	19040	5560	4714	5905	8141	5474	8670	11390	14860	14800	22490	7424	7853	17090	8558	5376	6051	3436	21050	15950	20150	5198	3766	22140	15970	13410	17610	11530	18470	5429	5552	3000	11030	10000	5424	2930	11460	6321	17920	8050	4232	1002	28930	16610	5719	4867	7451	5188	25820	25850	24980	22300	17910	7173	7961	5880	7934	5021	8245	6388	1182	4465	8943	4701	8173	4103	6525	14310	29160	17320	4948	8523	24340	6878	8277	24850	6110	5333	11500	6440	10770	6660	5578	12320

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-04-26 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-04-26