COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-05-03 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-05-03

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-05-03

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2812-2712-2712-2612-2712-262021-03-2512-2707-212021-03-2512-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1112-3012-2112-2612-2212-2912-2712-2712-2912-072021-01-072021-01-0311-132021-01-0112-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2812-3012-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-2110-2812-3012-2212-2812-2512-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-3010-042021-01-0412-262021-01-0512-2912-2612-2712-2912-2411-0212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-282021-01-022021-02-2512-2110-1412-2712-0712-2612-2210-0412-2707-2112-2412-2910-0412-2412-2111-0912-0612-2607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-0609-2712-2712-2312-2712-2212-2812-2512-1812-252021-01-0412-2612-2610-0412-2112-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-2712-2812-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-2212-2912-2812-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0112-2112-2812-2112-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2110-2712-2712-292021-01-0611-022021-01-0312-2112-2712-2711-0212-2112-262021-03-3112-2212-2112-3112-292021-01-0212-2211-012021-01-0712-0812-2112-2112-2112-2212-212021-03-2512-3107-2112-2212-2712-0607-212021-03-1812-2812-292021-01-0311-0312-2712-0612-2707-2112-0812-2710-2612-2612-2110-0411-0112-2112-2911-0412-212021-01-0412-2712-212021-01-0112-2912-2911-0212-2807-2112-2712-2812-2612-272021-01-062021-01-062021-01-0112-062021-01-0412-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2210-0412-0612-2812-2112-2712-2812-1012-3112-1310-1812-3012-2812-2712-252021-01-262021-01-0212-2912-292021-01-0312-2312-2112-3112-2912-2211-0207-2112-3012-2512-2512-2112-2912-2112-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0910-0412-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-2712-2211-0712-2812-2711-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2512-292021-01-0212-2612-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-1912-2212-2312-2712-0611-1312-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-2012-1310-0411-0212-0710-0412-2212-2312-2212-2712-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-2512-3112-2112-3012-2611-02
Peak daily increment 92 102 61 88 97 40 76 73 119 105 170 110 171 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 128 110 108 233 252 426 1250 75 157 65 95 58 157 50 484 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 306 320 107 508 94 186 62 122 123 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 107 303 40 90 268 52 197 249 283 59 91 71 65 266 20 243 5 35 53 94 285 34 553 288 38 181 598 151 69 189 72 58 246 27 170 248 187 118 322 119 87 536 308 60 52 71 76 160 106 25 51 235 204 102 163 147 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 80 69 90 73 94 119 150 125 54 38 122 82 597 92 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 219 59 201 57 401 172 103 338 101 106 136 120 476 101 159 52 76 442 57 116 452 143 83 74 134 18 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 311 428 107 1449 284 104 456 71 230 102 727 26 200 90 36 368 92 419 25 46 106 298 37 62 153 186 27 213 302 361 79 62 66 23 105 63 122 85 723 190 212 192 23 50 137 105 51 394 105 58 122 107 41 55 277 158 121 224 90 68 123 3 125 44 108 58 154 120 207 43 102 174 623 105 81 176 151 286 52 188 39 132 139 56 96 198 80 85 59 174 36 25 162 450 42 83 82 403 65 131 573 25 209 244 167 97 42 111 102 69 181 27 42 86 72 448 95 79 108 80 66 102 115 247 293 450 131 156 219 94 55 112 26 189 138 197 66 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 123 56 109 46 141 352 90 44 138 122 360 139 51 101 14 559 151 90 110 120 84 250 329 449 390 227 259 138 117 160 65 154 87 29 78 166 42 65 67 115 217 217 265 83 148 430 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 594
Days since peak 126 127 127 128 127 128 39 127 286 39 133 127 146 133 131 126 131 202 127 131 121 112 124 133 128 132 125 127 127 125 147 116 120 171 122 133 191 132 127 127 140 148 126 124 129 133 128 132 124 124 127 147 187 133 127 128 146 148 127 146 133 132 133 187 124 132 126 129 132 133 120 133 133 124 211 119 128 118 125 128 127 125 130 182 127 126 127 127 133 129 133 133 126 121 67 133 201 127 147 128 132 211 127 286 130 125 211 130 133 175 148 128 286 184 127 124 126 133 128 132 129 133 132 117 218 127 131 127 132 126 129 136 129 119 128 128 211 133 126 133 133 127 133 118 132 127 126 133 133 133 126 127 126 133 131 141 127 141 125 132 125 126 126 124 132 128 133 122 133 126 133 127 132 126 126 129 183 133 188 127 125 117 182 120 133 127 127 182 133 128 33 132 133 123 125 121 132 183 116 146 133 133 133 132 133 39 123 286 132 127 148 286 46 126 125 120 181 127 148 127 286 146 127 189 128 133 211 183 133 125 180 133 119 127 133 122 125 125 182 126 286 127 126 128 127 117 117 122 148 119 125 133 123 118 132 211 148 126 133 127 126 144 123 141 197 124 126 127 129 97 121 125 125 120 131 133 123 125 132 182 286 124 129 129 133 125 133 133 126 128 129 119 132 175 211 133 132 134 120 126 127 132 133 140 126 128 133 129 129 188 132 177 126 127 183 133 131 132 127 133 147 152 129 125 121 128 124 119 127 133 128 133 135 132 131 127 148 171 133 127 132 128 146 133 183 127 127 139 129 182 133 132 133 127 128 134 141 211 182 147 211 132 131 132 127 125 132 132 126 127 132 127 122 126 129 123 133 124 128 182
Last total 7199 5854 2908 5054 8589 3149 8442 5947 1452 15587 8286 9641 9799 11777 3859 23631 30535 19568 4276 17662 8243 8194 8255 13578 22585 22415 101475 7095 18246 9236 6166 5971 26431 4983 25373 7101 49673 10828 6775 28686 6911 12595 14567 30863 6043 24403 6258 9115 7148 9947 17304 13442 14587 5793 14142 7103 10141 26197 8222 10776 8359 7387 16030 1774 12549 12721 3762 9131 20967 21763 6158 4924 4282 7956 17134 2482 11357 294 3875 3153 5854 14252 2575 38135 23868 2838 7962 30962 8593 7559 10372 4291 4331 20171 2990 12303 23831 11905 7866 26852 4200 6945 31253 6393 3046 4207 5197 4885 8229 6433 2859 4830 4821 18315 9653 8921 6641 5859 2990 7383 29816 12451 5257 7135 5000 6750 5262 5602 5951 11490 9628 8072 3097 4792 13799 8194 41754 6398 3871 10294 5526 22448 7411 3402 21719 11966 4212 13065 5140 20853 7965 7689 20913 4352 8932 6226 7079 26917 7054 8237 5004 3614 26650 6173 5706 24984 7882 7994 2987 7695 2304 6809 15037 9066 6096 7691 19924 12289 34363 17389 24294 9469 63066 36801 4925 21718 6593 6902 7509 48508 20697 12719 3759 2795 53329 8294 26154 2705 3468 6730 16294 2260 3317 6847 12531 7743 12518 3194 20138 4407 4183 1639 11644 6200 7311 23716 8464 35663 11337 11525 6363 1990 6047 8689 6400 5560 22281 9579 3036 10109 12542 4361 6106 18265 17538 7430 30791 8604 4975 23195 72 9554 3475 9685 4575 15709 9209 14304 4184 13910 10959 32989 9334 6229 9272 10656 21356 4594 10905 2636 21400 6428 6115 4888 21446 6650 5523 6867 7732 1669 1895 23342 34286 5589 2892 5416 23991 5104 6915 43926 235 15090 15574 14700 5982 4231 4827 5838 7343 15247 1670 5391 7567 4513 18893 5565 4722 5900 8139 5472 8684 11378 14841 14792 22496 7436 7848 17079 8561 5367 6043 3424 21037 15952 20176 5200 3770 22131 5481 15968 13405 17590 11533 18449 5426 5561 3006 11020 9988 5415 2929 11463 6312 17913 8049 4235 6445 1002 28930 16670 5710 4874 7448 5191 25899 25835 24967 22258 17898 7185 7964 5869 7932 5017 8241 6410 1178 4449 8944 4705 8142 4105 6543 14273 29178 17315 4951 8523 24308 6877 8259 24848 6104 5334 11497 6436 10755 6672 5575 12289
Last daily increment 3 1 2 0 0 2 11 1 0 11 2 1 2 4 0 3 7 19 1 4 3 3 4 15 7 4 26 2 20 4 0 0 43 4 11 0 37 1 3 11 2 0 3 12 5 5 4 2 4 2 10 0 13 1 2 1 3 2 2 1 0 8 10 0 2 5 2 4 12 7 3 1 0 6 13 2 4 0 0 0 4 12 1 16 18 1 2 10 5 5 3 2 0 5 0 20 25 8 3 12 1 4 18 7 3 1 6 2 3 6 2 4 8 16 3 8 3 6 0 4 4 6 0 28 0 8 0 1 6 15 2 0 2 6 3 6 33 3 4 5 2 10 0 0 1 4 2 5 3 10 3 3 12 4 2 5 7 1 11 6 1 3 16 6 2 10 4 4 0 2 1 2 3 5 6 7 15 3 28 0 6 6 65 18 0 6 1 1 6 9 11 2 0 1 30 3 8 1 2 0 3 2 3 5 6 1 7 0 5 1 0 12 1 4 2 10 2 10 1 16 5 2 4 5 2 5 12 16 2 8 5 1 2 14 5 3 12 6 3 4 0 8 3 2 0 5 13 13 3 3 7 13 2 1 4 1 2 3 6 3 8 1 1 0 18 9 0 5 3 2 1 13 11 2 0 8 13 8 3 34 0 12 6 4 3 3 1 2 2 10 6 11 9 0 6 5 7 1 1 3 1 6 12 5 8 1 2 4 2 5 1 3 11 10 8 2 1 4 4 4 5 0 7 9 1 1 2 3 0 2 1 1 2 1 4 1 0 0 3 9 2 1 0 1 37 15 3 11 3 1 2 4 2 5 4 3 1 5 1 2 5 1 6 3 14 11 2 6 3 2 2 8 1 1 4 1 2 2 3 4
Last week 26 22 10 0 5 8 57 5 2 28 18 6 10 31 5 23 48 128 4 11 17 18 17 62 55 34 145 17 74 20 1 12 225 21 50 16 233 16 20 57 8 5 25 36 9 43 11 7 19 16 39 11 65 23 26 4 17 34 6 9 2 34 47 2 40 28 7 19 57 28 10 19 9 32 114 10 17 0 5 2 20 43 9 98 65 9 12 49 21 25 14 16 0 43 3 129 145 31 21 46 18 9 99 43 12 9 37 12 15 26 3 16 23 65 18 38 7 13 2 17 34 15 5 99 16 40 5 21 37 81 12 5 7 9 22 15 151 11 8 17 13 49 18 5 34 15 9 36 22 39 16 22 61 13 13 20 16 15 42 15 14 17 74 16 9 68 24 73 4 19 3 11 26 29 23 33 86 21 198 14 33 33 304 94 5 35 5 14 26 27 72 22 1 8 156 27 30 5 6 2 36 6 15 12 52 31 36 4 25 6 5 62 8 12 12 84 11 35 23 55 19 10 12 18 12 18 87 85 4 25 28 6 13 42 36 22 60 40 10 49 0 46 19 12 11 67 38 27 7 29 39 48 15 14 21 14 18 8 35 8 61 3 9 8 83 31 5 12 9 8 8 73 68 9 5 36 66 40 23 227 0 53 53 33 13 8 7 14 14 28 13 48 30 8 53 19 22 14 15 16 17 15 55 15 46 14 17 18 13 13 9 11 58 36 66 16 15 22 9 21 21 10 52 40 10 15 12 36 10 14 6 10 9 16 12 7 7 4 38 85 8 9 7 17 160 64 33 38 34 24 23 14 7 25 15 39 1 16 10 15 44 7 40 39 71 48 12 30 23 10 17 37 13 8 17 5 23 25 7 28
Previous peak date07-2107-21 -- --10-2707-2112-2110-07 --12-21 --10-21 --10-25 -- -- -- --10-20 -- --10-2611-02 --10-07 --11-02 --10-1310-13 --10-2510-15 --11-02 --05-0310-26 -- -- -- --10-1611-02 -- -- -- --10-1209-2710-2709-02 -- --10-01 -- -- --10-25 -- --10-10 -- --11-02 -- --10-2710-18 --10-20 -- --10-1307-2107-2110-14 -- -- -- --10-29 --04-2010-3110-31 --10-2910-17 -- -- --10-2110-2712-2810-01 --10-12 -- --07-2107-21 -- -- --11-0107-2110-27 -- --07-2110-27 -- -- --10-30 --10-20 --10-06 -- -- --10-18 --07-21 -- -- --07-21 -- -- --10-1510-2910-1107-21 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-2810-2710-14 --10-12 --10-2710-30 -- -- --10-29 -- --10-1710-2707-21 --11-01 -- -- --10-1307-21 --06-11 -- -- -- -- -- --10-13 --09-29 --10-0804-1411-02 -- --10-31 --10-1209-2812-27 -- -- --11-0210-25 -- -- -- --10-15 -- -- --10-1212-2111-03 --09-30 -- -- --12-07 -- --11-02 -- -- --09-24 -- --10-14 -- -- --07-21 -- --10-31 -- --11-0308-02 -- --11-0211-01 --10-22 -- -- -- --07-21 --11-0211-02 --11-02 -- --11-0310-26 --07-21 --10-1110-10 --10-19 --10-11 -- -- -- --10-13 -- -- --11-0211-0210-3107-21 --09-3010-25 -- -- --10-28 -- -- --07-21 -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- --07-21 -- -- --10-13 --10-24 -- -- -- -- --10-1710-0810-29 -- --07-2110-1810-12 -- -- --10-0610-31 -- -- -- --10-1811-04 -- --10-2910-1110-18 -- -- -- -- --10-26 -- -- --10-17 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-22 -- --10-22 -- -- -- -- --07-21 -- --07-21 --10-15 --10-1610-24 -- --09-3010-3010-11 --11-03 --10-1910-28 --10-17 -- --
Previous peak daily increment 616 365 80 295 134 40 260 61 40 31 75 271 262 1226 166 98 54 234 363 55 19 62 1197 57 72 160 31 54 39 60 294 35 120 54 62 1272 83 35 57 68 129 18 69 22 25 164 25 206 59 226 710 39 383 25 191 31 24 30 29 56 475 687 43 127 72 1766 70 33 54 60 69 57 38 22 44 144 49 59 248 45 46 153 81 75 479 56 71 480 273 2237 61 44 109 105 87 25 191 2429 91 53 1007 82 56 68 1343 64 257 230 139 354 150 88 41 459 41 46 194 65 67 406 233 81 152 189 33 104 226 66 876 66 75 20 118 77 149 184 120 129 18 172 46 89 27 17 45 144 135 23 307 376 24 319 68 141 22 25 38 54 32 67
Low between peaks 0 -1 28 0 8 18 13 26 -44 8 37 20 48 303 55 29 19 62 23 27 -19 21 68 19 34 54 12 23 7 26 28 -43 -38 17 31 -11 -4 -18 12 1 39 -9 28 -31 9 53 8 34 -47 -2 -3 -13 -3 -32 -1 10 -10 8 -67 19 -4 -5 -9 24 23 -7 22 -40 23 15 -120 -7 19 -66 -54 -1 15 21 -2 0 18 21 23 6 120 21 21 58 6 114 21 -25 39 6 35 8 7 18 23 -9 -7 35 16 7 50 28 58 1 20 37 38 22 13 -2 -20 -118 62 22 16 36 92 19 -4 26 14 31 -2 24 -7 28 24 -77 30 38 -1 43 43 58 -23 32 15 31 11 7 6 -31 -27 -71 -2 -2 -25 77 -103 19 -17 -8 8 27 12 -4

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-04 to 2021-05-10

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestErewashExeterFalkirkFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-05-03 7199 5854 2908 3149 8442 15587 8286 9641 9799 11777 23631 30535 19568 17662 8243 8194 8255 13578 22585 22415 101475 7095 18246 9236 5971 26431 4983 25373 7101 49673 10828 6775 28686 6911 14567 30863 6043 24403 6258 9115 7148 9947 17304 13442 14587 5793 14142 10141 26197 8222 10776 7387 16030 12549 12721 3762 9131 20967 21763 6158 4924 4282 7956 17134 2482 11357 5854 14252 2575 38135 23868 2838 7962 30962 8593 7559 10372 4291 20171 12303 23831 11905 7866 26852 4200 6945 31253 6393 3046 4207 5197 4885 8229 6433 4830 4821 18315 9653 8921 6641 5859 7383 29816 12451 7135 5000 6750 5602 5951 11490 9628 3097 4792 13799 8194 41754 6398 3871 10294 5526 22448 7411 21719 11966 4212 13065 5140 20853 7965 7689 20913 4352 8932 6226 7079 26917 7054 8237 5004 3614 26650 6173 5706 24984 7882 7994 7695 6809 15037 9066 6096 7691 19924 12289 34363 17389 24294 9469 63066 36801 21718 6902 7509 48508 20697 12719 2795 53329 8294 26154 3468 16294 2260 3317 6847 12531 7743 12518 20138 4407 1639 11644 6200 7311 23716 8464 35663 11337 11525 6363 1990 6047 8689 6400 5560 22281 9579 10109 12542 4361 6106 18265 17538 7430 30791 8604 4975 23195 9554 3475 9685 4575 15709 9209 14304 4184 13910 10959 32989 9334 6229 9272 10656 21356 4594 10905 2636 21400 6115 4888 21446 6650 6867 7732 1669 1895 23342 34286 5589 5416 23991 5104 6915 43926 15090 15574 14700 5982 4231 4827 5838 7343 15247 1670 5391 7567 4513 18893 5565 4722 5900 8139 5472 8684 11378 14841 14792 22496 7436 7848 17079 8561 5367 6043 3424 21037 15952 20176 5200 3770 22131 5481 15968 13405 17590 11533 18449 5426 5561 3006 11020 9988 5415 2929 11463 6312 17913 8049 4235 6445 28930 16670 5710 4874 7448 5191 25899 25835 24967 22258 17898 7185 7964 5869 7932 5017 8241 6410 4449 8944 4705 8142 4105 6543 14273 29178 17315 4951 8523 24308 6877 8259 24848 6104 5334 11497 10755 6672 5575 12289
2021-05-04 7202 5860 2909 3151 8449 15590 8292 9649 9804 11790 23640 30560 19590 17670 8247 8199 8259 13590 22600 22420 101500 7098 18250 9239 5973 26460 4989 25380 7106 49710 10830 6775 28720 6912 14580 30870 6048 24410 6260 9116 7148 9953 17310 13450 14590 5799 14150 10140 26200 8223 10780 7393 16040 12550 12730 3763 9135 20980 21770 6160 4925 4284 7961 17160 2484 11360 5861 14260 2577 38160 23890 2840 7964 30970 8598 7564 10370 4294 20180 12320 23870 11910 7869 26870 4203 6950 31270 6401 3048 4209 5202 4889 8232 6436 4833 4825 18330 9657 8932 6642 5865 7387 29820 12450 7153 5002 6757 5613 5957 11510 9630 3098 4793 13800 8196 41800 6399 3874 10300 5529 22460 7415 21730 11970 4214 13070 5143 20860 7967 7693 20920 4354 8936 6226 7082 26920 7071 8239 5006 3617 26660 6177 5708 25010 7887 8000 7699 6811 15040 9072 6105 7701 19930 12290 34420 17390 24300 9471 63120 36820 21720 6905 7513 48530 20700 12720 2796 53390 8295 26160 3473 16300 2262 3319 6849 12540 7748 12520 20140 4408 1647 11650 6207 7314 23740 8467 35670 11350 11530 6368 1992 6050 8693 6406 5563 22300 9594 10120 12550 4362 6109 18270 17550 7433 30820 8612 4977 23210 9556 3479 9688 4580 15730 9213 14310 4185 13910 10960 33000 9337 6231 9275 10670 21360 4595 10910 2637 21410 6117 4889 21460 6656 6869 7734 1670 1896 23360 34310 5592 5416 23990 5113 6918 43970 15100 15590 14700 5985 4234 4829 5841 7345 15260 1673 5391 7571 4519 18910 5568 4725 5902 8141 5474 8686 11380 14850 14790 22500 7439 7850 17080 8562 5371 6045 3427 21050 15960 20190 5200 3772 22140 5482 15970 13410 17590 11540 18470 5431 5563 3009 11030 10000 5418 2930 11470 6315 17920 8053 4236 6446 28940 16680 5717 4875 7449 5194 25930 25850 24970 22280 17910 7189 7968 5878 7940 5023 8245 6410 4453 8948 4708 8151 4107 6545 14300 29190 17340 4953 8528 24320 6879 8263 24860 6106 5338 11500 10760 6674 5576 12300
2021-05-05 7208 5869 2909 3154 8449 15610 8297 9654 9808 11800 23650 30580 19610 17670 8252 8211 8262 13590 22620 22430 101500 7105 18250 9240 5977 26500 4998 25390 7112 49760 10830 6779 28730 6915 14590 30880 6050 24410 6261 9118 7150 9959 17320 13450 14600 5817 14160 10150 26210 8224 10780 7403 16050 12570 12730 3766 9144 20990 21770 6165 4931 4288 7968 17180 2491 11370 5864 14270 2578 38180 23900 2845 7969 30980 8605 7569 10380 4299 20190 12340 23910 11920 7872 26880 4204 6964 31290 6410 3050 4211 5211 4892 8236 6440 4837 4832 18360 9664 8941 6644 5869 7390 29840 12460 7164 5005 6768 5622 5962 11530 9635 3098 4793 13810 8199 41850 6401 3876 10300 5532 22460 7425 21740 11970 4215 13090 5146 20860 7968 7700 20940 4356 8947 6227 7085 26930 7081 8242 5012 3624 26690 6181 5714 25030 7896 8010 7710 6814 15050 9084 6111 7709 19950 12300 34470 17400 24320 9476 63180 36830 21730 6911 7517 48540 20720 12730 2800 53450 8302 26170 3478 16310 2265 3323 6855 12560 7754 12530 20160 4412 1647 11650 6213 7320 23760 8476 35700 11360 11550 6376 1993 6057 8698 6410 5565 22320 9611 10120 12560 4366 6114 18270 17560 7433 30840 8620 4979 23220 9562 3482 9693 4594 15740 9216 14310 4190 13910 10970 33020 9342 6233 9276 10680 21370 4595 10920 2639 21420 6120 4889 21490 6663 6871 7737 1672 1898 23370 34330 5598 5419 24000 5127 6919 44010 15100 15610 14720 5989 4240 4835 5850 7348 15270 1675 5399 7576 4524 18920 5569 4725 5906 8147 5480 8688 11390 14870 14800 22510 7440 7853 17090 8562 5374 6051 3430 21060 15970 20210 5203 3774 22150 5483 15980 13410 17610 11550 18480 5438 5563 3012 11030 10000 5425 2931 11470 6321 17920 8055 4239 6447 28960 16690 5723 4877 7452 5201 25960 25870 24990 22300 17920 7190 7973 5880 7942 5028 8247 6413 4458 8951 4711 8164 4111 6550 14320 29210 17350 4956 8534 24330 6886 8272 24880 6111 5340 11500 10770 6675 5578 12310
2021-05-06 7213 5876 2910 3156 8450 15620 8300 9655 9810 11800 23660 30590 19630 17680 8256 8220 8265 13590 22640 22430 101500 7110 18260 9242 5980 26530 5003 25400 7116 49800 10830 6782 28750 6918 14590 30900 6052 24410 6263 9119 7153 9965 17330 13450 14610 5829 14170 10150 26210 8225 10780 7411 16050 12570 12730 3768 9150 21000 21780 6168 4934 4291 7973 17210 2496 11370 5867 14280 2580 38200 23910 2849 7973 30990 8612 7574 10380 4303 20200 12360 23950 11930 7874 26890 4206 6974 31300 6418 3051 4213 5219 4896 8240 6443 4840 4838 18380 9666 8950 6646 5871 7394 29850 12460 7179 5008 6775 5630 5967 11560 9638 3099 4794 13820 8201 41890 6403 3878 10300 5534 22470 7432 21750 11970 4216 13100 5149 20870 7970 7706 20950 4359 8953 6227 7088 26940 7090 8244 5017 3630 26710 6185 5718 25030 7900 8022 7718 6816 15050 9093 6120 7713 19960 12310 34500 17400 24330 9480 63240 36840 21740 6916 7521 48550 20730 12730 2800 53500 8307 26170 3480 16320 2268 3325 6858 12570 7759 12530 20170 4414 1647 11660 6217 7324 23780 8483 35730 11360 11570 6384 1995 6062 8702 6413 5567 22330 9626 10130 12560 4368 6117 18270 17570 7435 30860 8627 4981 23230 9567 3485 9696 4605 15760 9218 14320 4193 13920 10980 33040 9347 6236 9277 10690 21370 4596 10920 2641 21440 6122 4889 21510 6669 6873 7739 1673 1899 23380 34350 5602 5424 24000 5138 6922 44050 15110 15620 14720 5991 4245 4839 5857 7351 15270 1678 5404 7580 4527 18940 5571 4726 5909 8151 5483 8690 11390 14870 14800 22520 7443 7855 17090 8563 5377 6055 3433 21070 15970 20230 5206 3776 22150 5484 15990 13410 17620 11560 18490 5440 5564 3015 11040 10000 5429 2933 11480 6325 17930 8056 4240 6448 28980 16700 5727 4879 7454 5206 25990 25880 24990 22320 17920 7193 7978 5882 7944 5035 8250 6419 4462 8954 4715 8176 4113 6553 14330 29220 17360 4958 8540 24330 6890 8278 24880 6114 5341 11510 10780 6676 5579 12320
2021-05-07 7219 5884 2911 3158 8454 15620 8304 9657 9814 11810 23670 30610 19650 17680 8260 8227 8269 13590 22660 22440 101500 7115 18270 9244 5983 26560 5006 25410 7119 49840 10840 6783 28760 6919 14600 30910 6054 24420 6265 9120 7156 9965 17330 13450 14610 5838 14180 10150 26210 8226 10790 7417 16060 12580 12730 3770 9155 21010 21790 6171 4936 4293 7979 17230 2500 11370 5870 14290 2582 38210 23920 2851 7976 31000 8617 7579 10390 4307 20210 12380 23970 11930 7877 26890 4210 6982 31320 6428 3053 4215 5225 4897 8242 6446 4842 4843 18390 9672 8956 6647 5873 7397 29860 12460 7193 5011 6783 5634 5972 11580 9641 3100 4795 13820 8203 41930 6403 3878 10310 5537 22480 7438 21760 11980 4218 13100 5152 20880 7972 7713 20960 4360 8958 6229 7091 26950 7100 8246 5021 3635 26720 6188 5721 25050 7902 8030 7724 6818 15060 9100 6124 7716 19980 12320 34550 17400 24340 9482 63280 36850 21750 6921 7524 48560 20740 12730 2801 53540 8308 26180 3482 16330 2270 3328 6861 12580 7764 12530 20180 4416 1651 11660 6218 7328 23800 8487 35740 11370 11580 6391 1996 6066 8706 6416 5569 22350 9641 10130 12570 4370 6120 18280 17570 7437 30890 8634 4983 23240 9578 3489 9700 4614 15770 9219 14320 4195 13920 10980 33050 9350 6238 9279 10700 21370 4597 10930 2643 21450 6124 4890 21530 6675 6874 7741 1675 1900 23400 34360 5606 5427 24010 5149 6924 44090 15110 15630 14730 5995 4250 4842 5861 7354 15280 1680 5409 7584 4528 18960 5573 4727 5912 8154 5486 8693 11400 14880 14810 22530 7445 7857 17100 8563 5380 6058 3437 21080 15980 20240 5210 3778 22150 5485 15990 13410 17630 11570 18500 5440 5566 3016 11050 10010 5433 2934 11480 6329 17930 8058 4242 6449 28990 16710 5728 4880 7455 5210 26010 25890 25000 22320 17930 7197 7982 5885 7947 5037 8255 6422 4467 8956 4718 8187 4115 6556 14340 29240 17360 4960 8545 24340 6894 8283 24890 6117 5343 11510 10790 6677 5580 12330
2021-05-08 7227 5891 2912 3160 8459 15630 8305 9659 9815 11810 23680 30620 19670 17680 8264 8234 8269 13590 22670 22440 101500 7118 18270 9247 5986 26590 5010 25410 7119 49870 10840 6785 28780 6921 14600 30930 6055 24420 6266 9121 7158 9967 17340 13450 14620 5847 14180 10150 26220 8227 10790 7424 16070 12590 12740 3771 9160 21020 21790 6173 4937 4296 7984 17240 2503 11380 5874 14290 2583 38220 23930 2854 7979 31010 8622 7580 10390 4310 20210 12400 23990 11940 7880 26900 4213 6989 31340 6437 3055 4217 5229 4898 8245 6450 4843 4849 18410 9673 8960 6647 5875 7400 29870 12460 7208 5013 6795 5640 5978 11600 9644 3101 4796 13830 8205 41980 6403 3879 10310 5541 22480 7443 21770 11980 4219 13110 5155 20880 7974 7719 20970 4362 8963 6231 7093 26950 7110 8249 5025 3640 26740 6191 5724 25060 7906 8033 7729 6820 15060 9107 6126 7719 19980 12320 34570 17410 24350 9484 63310 36860 21750 6926 7528 48560 20740 12740 2801 53590 8309 26180 3483 16340 2273 3330 6864 12600 7769 12540 20190 4418 1656 11670 6219 7331 23820 8491 35760 11370 11590 6398 1998 6070 8709 6416 5572 22380 9656 10140 12570 4372 6123 18290 17580 7439 30910 8639 4985 23250 9583 3492 9703 4622 15780 9220 14320 4197 13920 10990 33060 9353 6240 9282 10710 21370 4597 10930 2645 21450 6126 4891 21550 6681 6876 7741 1677 1902 23400 34370 5609 5429 24020 5159 6927 44120 15120 15650 14730 5995 4254 4844 5866 7356 15280 1683 5412 7588 4529 18980 5575 4729 5914 8158 5486 8695 11400 14890 14810 22540 7447 7859 17100 8564 5382 6061 3440 21090 15990 20260 5210 3780 22160 5487 16000 13420 17640 11580 18500 5441 5567 3016 11050 10010 5437 2935 11490 6332 17930 8060 4243 6449 29010 16720 5729 4882 7457 5214 26020 25890 25010 22330 17930 7202 7986 5886 7947 5039 8256 6425 4471 8958 4721 8199 4118 6561 14340 29250 17370 4962 8550 24340 6897 8288 24900 6120 5344 11510 10790 6679 5580 12340
2021-05-09 7230 5894 2913 3162 8465 15640 8307 9659 9816 11820 23690 30620 19690 17680 8267 8239 8272 13600 22690 22450 101500 7122 18280 9249 5988 26620 5012 25420 7123 49890 10840 6790 28790 6922 14600 30950 6056 24430 6268 9123 7159 9969 17340 13460 14630 5854 14190 10150 26220 8228 10790 7430 16080 12590 12740 3773 9164 21020 21800 6175 4941 4298 7989 17260 2506 11380 5879 14300 2585 38240 23940 2856 7981 31010 8627 7583 10390 4313 20220 12420 24010 11940 7882 26910 4217 6995 31350 6446 3057 4219 5234 4899 8248 6453 4845 4854 18420 9674 8965 6648 5876 7404 29870 12460 7224 5016 6799 5644 5984 11610 9646 3102 4796 13830 8207 42010 6403 3879 10310 5543 22490 7448 21770 11980 4221 13120 5159 20890 7976 7725 20980 4366 8966 6233 7096 26960 7118 8251 5029 3645 26750 6193 5726 25070 7910 8035 7734 6822 15070 9114 6127 7725 19990 12320 34600 17410 24350 9489 63330 36860 21750 6932 7532 48570 20750 12740 2803 53630 8309 26190 3483 16340 2275 3333 6867 12610 7774 12540 20200 4419 1663 11670 6221 7334 23840 8495 35770 11370 11600 6404 2000 6073 8712 6419 5574 22390 9671 10140 12580 4373 6126 18290 17580 7442 30930 8644 4986 23250 9587 3496 9706 4629 15790 9228 14330 4198 13930 10990 33070 9356 6242 9284 10720 21370 4598 10940 2648 21460 6128 4892 21560 6687 6878 7741 1679 1903 23410 34380 5612 5433 24030 5168 6929 44140 15130 15650 14730 5996 4259 4846 5870 7359 15290 1685 5417 7592 4532 19000 5578 4732 5916 8160 5488 8697 11400 14900 14810 22540 7449 7861 17100 8565 5384 6064 3443 21100 15990 20270 5212 3782 22160 5488 16000 13420 17640 11590 18510 5442 5569 3018 11060 10010 5440 2936 11490 6335 17930 8062 4245 6449 29020 16730 5730 4883 7458 5217 26040 25900 25020 22330 17940 7207 7990 5889 7949 5045 8258 6430 4476 8959 4723 8209 4119 6569 14350 29260 17380 4964 8555 24340 6899 8293 24900 6122 5345 11520 10800 6681 5581 12340
2021-05-10 7237 5900 2915 3164 8471 15640 8310 9662 9818 11820 23690 30630 19710 17690 8270 8244 8276 13610 22700 22450 101600 7125 18300 9252 5990 26660 5016 25430 7124 49930 10840 6793 28800 6924 14610 30970 6059 24430 6269 9124 7162 9971 17350 13460 14640 5861 14190 10160 26220 8229 10790 7435 16080 12600 12740 3774 9168 21030 21800 6177 4942 4300 7994 17280 2509 11380 5885 14310 2586 38250 23960 2858 7984 31020 8632 7587 10390 4316 20230 12440 24040 11950 7885 26920 4221 7000 31370 6456 3059 4221 5242 4902 8250 6457 4848 4860 18430 9678 8972 6650 5881 7407 29880 12470 7240 5018 6808 5646 5990 11630 9648 3103 4797 13830 8209 42060 6406 3883 10310 5544 22500 7452 21780 11980 4222 13120 5162 20890 7978 7732 20990 4369 8970 6236 7098 26960 7128 8253 5033 3650 26760 6196 5729 25080 7914 8040 7738 6824 15070 9120 6132 7732 20000 12330 34630 17410 24360 9495 63390 36870 21760 6938 7535 48580 20750 12740 2804 53680 8313 26190 3484 16350 2277 3335 6870 12620 7779 12550 20200 4420 1670 11670 6225 7337 23860 8498 35780 11380 11600 6411 2001 6076 8716 6421 5577 22420 9685 10150 12580 4374 6128 18300 17590 7444 30950 8650 4988 23260 9594 3500 9708 4635 15800 9238 14330 4200 13930 11000 33080 9359 6243 9287 10720 21380 4599 10940 2650 21470 6130 4893 21580 6692 6880 7743 1681 1904 23420 34390 5615 5439 24040 5177 6932 44180 15130 15660 14740 5998 4263 4848 5874 7361 15300 1688 5426 7596 4533 19010 5581 4734 5918 8163 5491 8698 11410 14910 14810 22550 7451 7863 17100 8566 5389 6066 3447 21110 16000 20280 5213 3784 22160 5489 16010 13420 17650 11600 18520 5443 5570 3020 11060 10020 5444 2937 11490 6338 17940 8065 4246 6449 29030 16740 5731 4885 7459 5221 26070 25910 25020 22340 17940 7213 7993 5894 7951 5050 8262 6434 4481 8961 4726 8220 4121 6574 14350 29270 17390 4966 8560 24350 6901 8297 24910 6125 5346 11520 10800 6683 5583 12350

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-04 to 2021-05-10

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestErewashExeterFalkirkFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-05-03 7199 5854 2908 3149 8442 15587 8286 9641 9799 11777 23631 30535 19568 17662 8243 8194 8255 13578 22585 22415 101475 7095 18246 9236 5971 26431 4983 25373 7101 49673 10828 6775 28686 6911 14567 30863 6043 24403 6258 9115 7148 9947 17304 13442 14587 5793 14142 10141 26197 8222 10776 7387 16030 12549 12721 3762 9131 20967 21763 6158 4924 4282 7956 17134 2482 11357 5854 14252 2575 38135 23868 2838 7962 30962 8593 7559 10372 4291 20171 12303 23831 11905 7866 26852 4200 6945 31253 6393 3046 4207 5197 4885 8229 6433 4830 4821 18315 9653 8921 6641 5859 7383 29816 12451 7135 5000 6750 5602 5951 11490 9628 3097 4792 13799 8194 41754 6398 3871 10294 5526 22448 7411 21719 11966 4212 13065 5140 20853 7965 7689 20913 4352 8932 6226 7079 26917 7054 8237 5004 3614 26650 6173 5706 24984 7882 7994 7695 6809 15037 9066 6096 7691 19924 12289 34363 17389 24294 9469 63066 36801 21718 6902 7509 48508 20697 12719 2795 53329 8294 26154 3468 16294 2260 3317 6847 12531 7743 12518 20138 4407 1639 11644 6200 7311 23716 8464 35663 11337 11525 6363 1990 6047 8689 6400 5560 22281 9579 10109 12542 4361 6106 18265 17538 7430 30791 8604 4975 23195 9554 3475 9685 4575 15709 9209 14304 4184 13910 10959 32989 9334 6229 9272 10656 21356 4594 10905 2636 21400 6115 4888 21446 6650 6867 7732 1669 1895 23342 34286 5589 5416 23991 5104 6915 43926 15090 15574 14700 5982 4231 4827 5838 7343 15247 1670 5391 7567 4513 18893 5565 4722 5900 8139 5472 8684 11378 14841 14792 22496 7436 7848 17079 8561 5367 6043 3424 21037 15952 20176 5200 3770 22131 5481 15968 13405 17590 11533 18449 5426 5561 3006 11020 9988 5415 2929 11463 6312 17913 8049 4235 6445 28930 16670 5710 4874 7448 5191 25899 25835 24967 22258 17898 7185 7964 5869 7932 5017 8241 6410 4449 8944 4705 8142 4105 6543 14273 29178 17315 4951 8523 24308 6877 8259 24848 6104 5334 11497 10755 6672 5575 12289
2021-05-04 7205 5859 2909 3152 8450 15590 8291 9643 9801 11780 23640 30550 19590 17670 8246 8199 8259 13590 22600 22420 101500 7098 18260 9239 5972 26460 4986 25380 7103 49710 10830 6777 28700 6912 14570 30870 6046 24410 6259 9117 7150 9950 17310 13450 14600 5800 14150 10140 26200 8223 10780 7393 16040 12550 12720 3764 9135 20980 21770 6160 4926 4284 7960 17160 2485 11360 5858 14260 2576 38150 23880 2840 7964 30970 8597 7564 10380 4293 20180 12320 23850 11910 7869 26860 4203 6951 31270 6401 3048 4208 5203 4888 8232 6437 4832 4827 18330 9655 8928 6642 5862 7387 29820 12450 7154 5002 6759 5604 5957 11510 9630 3099 4794 13800 8197 41800 6399 3873 10300 5528 22460 7413 21730 11970 4213 13070 5143 20860 7968 7692 20920 4355 8935 6229 7082 26920 7062 8240 5006 3619 26670 6177 5707 25000 7885 8002 7698 6811 15040 9072 6101 7698 19930 12290 34390 17390 24300 9474 63120 36810 21720 6905 7513 48520 20710 12720 2796 53360 8297 26160 3470 16300 2262 3320 6850 12540 7746 12520 20140 4408 1647 11650 6203 7313 23730 8464 35670 11340 11540 6369 1992 6049 8692 6403 5564 22310 9594 10110 12550 4362 6109 18270 17540 7432 30810 8609 4977 23200 9560 3477 9687 4580 15720 9218 14310 4185 13910 10970 33000 9337 6231 9276 10660 21360 4595 10910 2638 21410 6117 4889 21460 6657 6870 7734 1670 1896 23360 34290 5592 5422 24000 5113 6917 43960 15100 15580 14700 5984 4237 4829 5840 7346 15250 1673 5396 7573 4515 18910 5569 4726 5902 8142 5474 8686 11380 14850 14800 22500 7438 7850 17080 8563 5369 6046 3427 21050 15960 20190 5202 3771 22140 5483 15970 13410 17590 11540 18460 5428 5563 3007 11020 9990 5418 2930 11470 6314 17920 8052 4236 6446 28940 16680 5712 4875 7449 5193 25920 25840 24970 22270 17900 7187 7967 5874 7936 5022 8244 6414 4455 8945 4708 8150 4108 6549 14280 29190 17330 4953 8527 24310 6878 8264 24850 6106 5337 11500 10760 6674 5577 12300
2021-05-05 7215 5868 2911 3154 8454 15600 8296 9645 9804 11790 23650 30560 19610 17670 8251 8206 8262 13590 22610 22420 101500 7102 18260 9241 5976 26490 4991 25390 7107 49750 10830 6780 28710 6914 14580 30880 6047 24420 6260 9118 7152 9954 17320 13450 14610 5809 14150 10150 26210 8225 10780 7400 16050 12560 12730 3766 9138 20990 21770 6163 4930 4287 7963 17190 2490 11360 5860 14270 2578 38180 23900 2843 7967 30980 8603 7568 10380 4296 20180 12340 23870 11920 7872 26870 4209 6961 31290 6413 3050 4209 5214 4891 8235 6441 4835 4834 18340 9659 8937 6643 5865 7391 29830 12460 7162 5005 6771 5609 5963 11540 9634 3099 4795 13810 8198 41860 6402 3875 10300 5529 22460 7419 21740 11970 4215 13080 5146 20860 7970 7697 20930 4357 8940 6230 7084 26930 7071 8242 5010 3624 26680 6180 5709 25010 7891 8017 7702 6813 15050 9078 6106 7706 19940 12300 34430 17400 24310 9476 63180 36840 21730 6910 7515 48530 20720 12730 2798 53400 8303 26170 3473 16310 2265 3322 6853 12550 7749 12530 20150 4410 1653 11650 6207 7315 23750 8468 35680 11350 11540 6379 1994 6052 8694 6405 5567 22340 9610 10120 12550 4363 6111 18280 17550 7435 30830 8616 4979 23210 9567 3478 9690 4590 15730 9224 14310 4187 13920 10970 33010 9340 6233 9280 10680 21360 4596 10910 2639 21420 6119 4890 21480 6664 6871 7736 1672 1897 23370 34300 5595 5426 24010 5126 6920 44000 15110 15590 14710 5986 4245 4833 5846 7349 15260 1675 5402 7578 4518 18930 5571 4727 5905 8147 5477 8687 11390 14860 14800 22510 7439 7852 17080 8566 5372 6049 3430 21060 15970 20190 5205 3773 22150 5484 15980 13410 17600 11550 18470 5432 5565 3009 11030 9990 5423 2931 11470 6318 17920 8054 4237 6446 28950 16690 5716 4876 7450 5197 25940 25860 24980 22280 17910 7189 7971 5879 7937 5025 8246 6419 4461 8947 4711 8161 4109 6555 14300 29190 17340 4954 8533 24320 6880 8270 24860 6110 5339 11500 10770 6676 5578 12300
2021-05-06 7223 5876 2912 3157 8459 15600 8299 9646 9807 11800 23650 30570 19630 17670 8254 8212 8266 13600 22620 22430 101600 7106 18270 9243 5979 26520 4994 25400 7110 49780 10830 6782 28720 6915 14580 30900 6048 24420 6261 9119 7154 9958 17330 13450 14620 5816 14160 10150 26220 8225 10780 7405 16050 12560 12730 3767 9141 21000 21780 6166 4933 4289 7966 17220 2494 11370 5863 14280 2580 38190 23910 2846 7969 30990 8607 7572 10380 4298 20190 12360 23900 11920 7876 26880 4216 6969 31310 6426 3052 4210 5224 4894 8237 6445 4836 4840 18350 9662 8946 6644 5867 7396 29840 12460 7170 5008 6781 5615 5969 11560 9636 3101 4795 13810 8199 41910 6404 3876 10310 5531 22470 7422 21740 11970 4217 13090 5148 20870 7972 7701 20930 4359 8944 6232 7086 26930 7079 8244 5013 3630 26700 6183 5711 25020 7895 8032 7706 6815 15050 9084 6111 7712 19950 12300 34470 17400 24330 9479 63250 36850 21740 6914 7518 48530 20730 12730 2799 53440 8308 26170 3475 16320 2267 3324 6855 12570 7752 12530 20160 4412 1659 11650 6210 7317 23770 8470 35690 11350 11550 6387 1996 6054 8695 6408 5570 22370 9626 10120 12560 4365 6113 18290 17560 7437 30850 8622 4980 23220 9572 3479 9691 4599 15740 9229 14320 4188 13930 10980 33020 9342 6235 9283 10690 21370 4597 10920 2641 21430 6120 4891 21500 6670 6873 7738 1673 1898 23380 34310 5598 5430 24020 5137 6922 44040 15110 15600 14710 5988 4251 4835 5850 7351 15260 1676 5408 7582 4520 18950 5573 4729 5908 8150 5480 8688 11390 14870 14800 22520 7440 7854 17090 8568 5374 6052 3434 21070 15970 20200 5207 3776 22150 5485 15990 13410 17610 11560 18470 5433 5567 3011 11040 9990 5427 2933 11470 6322 17920 8056 4238 6447 28960 16690 5719 4877 7451 5199 25960 25860 24990 22290 17920 7192 7974 5883 7939 5029 8248 6425 4466 8948 4715 8173 4111 6558 14310 29200 17350 4955 8537 24330 6882 8275 24860 6113 5340 11510 10770 6677 5579 12310
2021-05-07 7232 5885 2913 3160 8465 15610 8303 9646 9810 11800 23660 30580 19650 17670 8257 8217 8270 13610 22630 22430 101600 7109 18280 9246 5981 26550 4997 25410 7113 49810 10830 6784 28740 6916 14580 30910 6050 24430 6262 9120 7157 9959 17330 13450 14620 5823 14160 10150 26220 8226 10780 7411 16060 12570 12730 3768 9143 21010 21790 6168 4936 4291 7970 17250 2498 11370 5866 14280 2582 38210 23920 2848 7971 31000 8611 7577 10380 4300 20200 12380 23910 11930 7879 26890 4222 6977 31320 6436 3054 4211 5233 4896 8239 6448 4838 4846 18360 9667 8953 6645 5869 7400 29850 12460 7178 5011 6791 5618 5975 11580 9639 3102 4796 13820 8200 41970 6406 3877 10310 5533 22470 7425 21750 11970 4219 13100 5150 20870 7974 7706 20940 4361 8947 6234 7087 26940 7087 8246 5016 3636 26710 6185 5713 25030 7899 8045 7708 6817 15060 9089 6115 7716 19960 12310 34510 17400 24330 9480 63310 36870 21740 6918 7520 48540 20740 12730 2800 53470 8311 26180 3476 16320 2269 3326 6857 12580 7754 12540 20170 4413 1667 11650 6212 7318 23790 8472 35700 11360 11560 6396 1997 6056 8697 6410 5573 22410 9641 10130 12560 4365 6114 18290 17560 7440 30870 8628 4982 23230 9581 3481 9693 4608 15750 9234 14320 4189 13940 10980 33030 9345 6237 9284 10700 21370 4597 10920 2643 21440 6122 4892 21510 6676 6875 7739 1675 1900 23400 34320 5599 5432 24020 5148 6925 44070 15120 15610 14720 5990 4257 4837 5853 7353 15270 1678 5413 7586 4522 18980 5574 4731 5910 8152 5482 8690 11390 14870 14810 22530 7442 7856 17090 8570 5376 6055 3439 21080 15980 20210 5211 3778 22160 5486 15990 13420 17610 11570 18480 5434 5569 3012 11050 10000 5431 2934 11470 6325 17930 8058 4239 6447 28960 16700 5721 4878 7452 5201 25970 25870 24990 22300 17920 7195 7977 5887 7941 5032 8251 6430 4473 8949 4718 8185 4112 6561 14320 29200 17350 4956 8542 24330 6883 8280 24870 6116 5342 11510 10770 6679 5580 12320
2021-05-08 7243 5893 2914 3163 8471 15610 8304 9648 9812 11810 23660 30580 19670 17670 8260 8222 8271 13610 22640 22430 101600 7112 18290 9248 5983 26580 5000 25410 7114 49840 10830 6786 28750 6917 14580 30930 6051 24430 6263 9121 7158 9961 17340 13450 14630 5829 14170 10150 26230 8227 10780 7416 16060 12570 12730 3769 9145 21010 21790 6169 4937 4293 7972 17270 2501 11370 5869 14290 2584 38220 23930 2850 7973 31010 8616 7579 10380 4302 20210 12390 23930 11930 7882 26890 4228 6984 31340 6448 3056 4212 5240 4897 8241 6452 4839 4853 18370 9668 8959 6645 5871 7404 29850 12460 7186 5013 6802 5624 5980 11600 9641 3102 4796 13820 8202 42030 6408 3878 10310 5535 22480 7428 21760 11970 4221 13100 5152 20880 7975 7710 20940 4363 8951 6236 7089 26940 7094 8248 5019 3642 26720 6187 5715 25050 7902 8055 7711 6819 15060 9094 6118 7720 19960 12310 34540 17400 24340 9481 63350 36890 21750 6922 7522 48550 20750 12740 2801 53510 8315 26180 3478 16330 2270 3329 6860 12590 7757 12540 20170 4415 1673 11650 6213 7319 23800 8475 35710 11360 11560 6404 1999 6058 8698 6411 5576 22450 9657 10130 12570 4366 6115 18300 17560 7443 30880 8632 4984 23240 9586 3482 9695 4618 15750 9238 14320 4190 13940 10990 33040 9347 6240 9286 10710 21370 4598 10930 2644 21450 6124 4893 21520 6682 6877 7740 1677 1901 23400 34320 5602 5434 24030 5158 6928 44100 15130 15620 14720 5991 4264 4840 5857 7355 15270 1679 5416 7589 4523 19010 5577 4733 5912 8154 5483 8691 11400 14880 14810 22530 7442 7857 17090 8572 5379 6057 3443 21080 15980 20210 5212 3780 22160 5487 16000 13420 17610 11580 18490 5435 5571 3012 11050 10000 5434 2935 11480 6327 17930 8060 4239 6448 28970 16700 5723 4879 7453 5203 25980 25880 25000 22310 17930 7198 7980 5890 7942 5035 8253 6434 4478 8950 4721 8197 4114 6565 14320 29210 17360 4957 8546 24330 6884 8284 24870 6117 5343 11510 10780 6681 5581 12330
2021-05-09 7250 5898 2915 3166 8478 15620 8307 9649 9814 11810 23670 30590 19680 17680 8263 8227 8277 13620 22650 22440 101600 7116 18300 9250 5985 26610 5004 25420 7117 49870 10830 6789 28760 6919 14590 30940 6052 24440 6264 9122 7160 9964 17340 13460 14640 5835 14170 10160 26230 8228 10780 7421 16070 12570 12730 3770 9147 21020 21790 6172 4940 4295 7977 17300 2505 11380 5873 14300 2585 38240 23940 2852 7975 31020 8620 7583 10390 4303 20210 12410 23950 11930 7885 26900 4235 6992 31350 6460 3058 4213 5248 4899 8243 6455 4841 4859 18380 9670 8966 6645 5873 7408 29860 12470 7197 5016 6811 5630 5986 11620 9643 3103 4797 13820 8203 42090 6410 3879 10310 5537 22480 7431 21770 11980 4222 13110 5155 20880 7978 7716 20950 4365 8954 6238 7090 26950 7101 8249 5022 3647 26730 6189 5718 25060 7906 8066 7713 6821 15070 9099 6122 7726 19970 12320 34570 17410 24350 9482 63380 36900 21750 6926 7524 48550 20760 12740 2803 53540 8318 26190 3479 16330 2272 3331 6862 12600 7759 12550 20180 4416 1680 11650 6217 7321 23820 8478 35720 11370 11570 6413 2001 6062 8700 6413 5579 22480 9672 10130 12570 4367 6117 18310 17570 7445 30900 8637 4985 23250 9590 3484 9697 4627 15760 9244 14320 4191 13950 10990 33050 9350 6242 9288 10720 21370 4599 10930 2646 21450 6125 4893 21530 6688 6879 7741 1678 1902 23410 34330 5605 5435 24040 5168 6931 44130 15130 15620 14730 5992 4271 4841 5862 7358 15280 1681 5420 7592 4525 19030 5580 4735 5914 8156 5486 8691 11400 14890 14810 22540 7444 7859 17100 8575 5381 6059 3447 21090 15990 20220 5213 3782 22160 5488 16000 13420 17620 11590 18490 5437 5573 3013 11060 10000 5437 2936 11480 6330 17930 8063 4240 6448 28980 16710 5725 4880 7454 5205 25990 25890 25000 22320 17930 7201 7983 5893 7943 5040 8255 6437 4483 8951 4724 8209 4115 6570 14330 29210 17370 4958 8550 24340 6886 8289 24880 6119 5344 11520 10780 6683 5582 12340
2021-05-10 7259 5907 2916 3169 8484 15620 8310 9652 9818 11820 23680 30600 19700 17680 8267 8232 8281 13630 22670 22440 101700 7119 18310 9253 5987 26640 5007 25420 7120 49900 10840 6791 28780 6919 14590 30960 6054 24450 6264 9123 7162 9967 17350 13460 14650 5841 14180 10160 26240 8228 10790 7426 16080 12580 12730 3770 9150 21030 21800 6173 4942 4297 7979 17330 2509 11380 5878 14300 2587 38260 23950 2854 7976 31020 8624 7587 10390 4305 20220 12420 23970 11940 7888 26910 4241 7000 31370 6473 3060 4214 5258 4901 8245 6459 4842 4867 18380 9674 8975 6647 5877 7412 29870 12470 7205 5018 6821 5634 5991 11640 9645 3104 4798 13830 8203 42150 6413 3881 10320 5538 22490 7434 21770 11980 4224 13120 5157 20890 7980 7720 20950 4367 8957 6239 7091 26950 7114 8251 5025 3653 26740 6192 5719 25070 7911 8078 7717 6822 15070 9105 6126 7736 19970 12320 34600 17410 24350 9485 63440 36930 21760 6931 7526 48560 20770 12740 2804 53580 8322 26190 3482 16340 2274 3333 6864 12620 7762 12550 20180 4417 1689 11650 6220 7323 23840 8481 35740 11370 11570 6422 2003 6064 8701 6415 5582 22520 9687 10140 12580 4368 6119 18310 17580 7448 30920 8644 4987 23250 9597 3485 9699 4635 15760 9251 14330 4192 13960 11000 33050 9352 6244 9291 10740 21370 4600 10930 2648 21460 6127 4894 21540 6693 6880 7742 1680 1903 23430 34340 5608 5437 24050 5177 6934 44160 15140 15630 14730 5994 4278 4843 5866 7360 15280 1683 5426 7595 4527 19050 5585 4737 5916 8158 5488 8692 11400 14900 14810 22550 7445 7860 17100 8577 5385 6062 3451 21100 16000 20230 5214 3784 22170 5490 16010 13420 17620 11600 18500 5439 5575 3014 11060 10000 5441 2937 11480 6333 17940 8065 4241 6449 28980 16710 5728 4881 7455 5207 26000 25900 25010 22330 17940 7205 7986 5898 7946 5043 8258 6440 4489 8952 4727 8221 4116 6574 14340 29210 17380 4959 8555 24340 6888 8293 24880 6122 5345 11520 10790 6685 5584 12350

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.