COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-05-08 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-05-08

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-05-08

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2812-2712-2712-2612-2712-262021-03-2512-2707-212021-03-2512-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1112-3012-2112-2612-2212-2912-2712-2712-2912-072021-01-072021-01-0311-132021-01-0112-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2812-3012-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-2110-2812-3012-2212-2812-2512-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-3010-042021-01-0412-262021-01-0512-2912-2612-2712-2912-2411-0212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-282021-01-022021-02-2512-2110-1412-2712-0712-2612-2210-0412-2707-2112-2412-2910-0412-2412-2111-0912-0612-2607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-0609-2712-2712-2312-2712-2212-2812-2512-1812-252021-01-0412-2612-2610-0412-2112-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-2712-2812-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-2212-2912-2812-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0112-2112-2812-2112-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2110-2712-2712-292021-01-0611-022021-01-0312-2112-2712-2711-0212-2112-262021-04-0112-2212-2112-3112-292021-01-0212-2211-012021-01-0712-0812-2112-2112-2112-2212-212021-03-2512-3107-2112-2212-2712-0607-212021-03-1812-2812-292021-01-0311-0312-2712-0612-2707-2112-0812-2710-2612-2612-2110-0411-0112-2112-2911-0412-212021-01-0412-2712-212021-01-0112-2912-2911-0212-2807-2112-2712-2812-2612-272021-01-062021-01-062021-01-0112-062021-01-0412-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2210-0412-0612-2812-2112-2712-2812-1012-3112-1310-1812-3012-2812-2712-252021-01-262021-01-0212-2912-292021-01-0312-2312-2112-3112-2912-2211-0207-2112-3012-2512-2512-2112-2912-2112-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0910-0412-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-222021-03-3012-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-2712-2211-0712-2812-2711-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2512-292021-01-0212-2612-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-1912-2212-2312-2712-0611-1312-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-2012-1310-0411-0212-0710-0412-2212-2312-2212-2712-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-2512-3112-2112-3012-2611-02
Peak daily increment 92 102 61 88 97 40 77 73 119 106 170 110 171 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 128 110 108 233 252 426 1250 75 157 65 95 58 157 50 484 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 320 107 508 94 186 62 122 123 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 107 303 40 90 268 52 197 249 283 59 91 71 65 266 20 243 5 35 53 94 285 34 553 288 38 181 598 151 69 189 72 58 246 27 170 248 187 118 322 119 87 536 308 60 52 71 76 160 106 25 51 235 204 102 163 147 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 80 69 90 73 94 119 150 125 54 38 122 82 597 92 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 219 59 201 57 401 172 103 338 101 106 136 120 476 101 159 52 76 442 57 116 452 143 83 74 134 18 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 311 428 107 1449 284 104 456 71 230 102 727 28 200 90 36 368 92 419 25 46 106 298 37 62 153 186 27 213 302 361 79 62 66 23 105 63 122 85 723 190 212 192 23 50 137 105 51 394 105 58 122 107 41 55 277 158 121 224 90 68 123 3 125 44 108 58 154 120 207 43 102 174 623 105 81 176 151 286 52 188 39 132 139 56 96 198 80 85 59 174 36 25 162 450 42 83 82 403 65 131 573 25 209 244 167 97 42 111 102 69 181 27 42 86 72 448 95 79 108 80 66 102 115 18 293 450 131 156 219 94 55 112 26 189 138 197 66 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 123 56 109 46 141 352 90 44 138 122 360 139 51 101 14 559 151 90 110 120 84 250 329 449 390 227 259 138 117 160 65 154 87 29 78 166 42 65 67 115 217 217 265 83 148 430 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 594
Days since peak 131 132 132 133 132 133 44 132 291 44 138 132 151 138 136 131 136 207 132 136 126 117 129 138 133 137 130 132 132 130 152 121 125 176 127 138 196 137 132 132 145 153 131 129 134 138 133 137 129 129 132 152 192 138 132 133 151 153 132 151 138 137 138 192 129 137 131 134 137 138 125 138 138 129 216 124 133 123 130 133 132 130 135 187 132 131 132 132 138 134 138 138 131 126 72 138 206 132 152 133 137 216 132 291 135 130 216 135 138 180 153 133 291 189 132 129 131 138 133 137 134 138 137 122 223 132 136 132 137 131 134 141 134 124 133 133 216 138 131 138 138 132 138 123 137 132 131 138 138 138 131 132 131 138 136 146 132 146 130 137 130 131 131 129 137 133 138 127 138 131 138 132 137 131 131 134 188 138 193 132 130 122 187 125 138 132 132 187 138 133 37 137 138 128 130 126 137 188 121 151 138 138 138 137 138 44 128 291 137 132 153 291 51 131 130 125 186 132 153 132 291 151 132 194 133 138 216 188 138 130 185 138 124 132 138 127 130 130 187 131 291 132 131 133 132 122 122 127 153 124 130 138 128 123 137 216 153 131 138 132 131 149 128 146 202 129 131 132 134 102 126 130 130 125 136 138 128 130 137 187 291 129 134 134 138 130 138 138 131 133 134 124 137 180 216 138 137 139 125 131 132 137 39 145 131 133 138 134 134 193 137 182 131 132 188 138 136 137 132 138 152 157 134 130 126 133 129 124 132 138 133 138 140 137 136 132 153 176 138 132 137 133 151 138 188 132 132 144 134 187 138 137 138 132 133 139 146 216 187 152 216 137 136 137 132 130 137 137 131 132 137 132 127 131 134 128 138 129 133 187
Last total 7236 5877 2915 5055 8594 3161 8486 5952 1452 15632 8311 9651 9810 11796 3869 23663 30582 19664 4281 17671 8253 8209 8271 13678 22630 22444 101635 7115 18369 9263 6167 5974 26827 5000 25404 7114 49845 10835 6796 28754 6917 12600 14610 30901 6045 24436 6259 9118 7171 9967 17329 13452 14653 5806 14181 7112 10156 26247 8226 10791 8362 7436 16068 1782 12571 12742 3774 9151 21010 21788 6168 4936 4289 7981 17205 2500 11377 294 3879 3157 5878 14278 2580 38197 23942 2845 7987 31028 8615 7575 10388 4299 4336 20212 2995 12390 23938 11925 7876 26900 4208 6966 31361 6417 3050 4215 5212 4897 8237 6459 2863 4844 4838 18371 9665 8943 6644 5878 2993 7393 29851 12457 5263 7300 5007 6781 5269 5626 5969 11557 9632 8080 3100 4804 13820 8219 42033 6404 3882 10305 5543 22489 7423 3411 21753 11985 4218 13088 5169 20879 7976 7705 20966 4371 8941 6231 7095 26943 7090 8249 5030 3625 26745 6192 5715 25084 7899 8016 2989 7712 2305 6820 15071 9100 6125 7723 19981 12314 34548 17406 24333 9508 63356 36908 4933 21748 6601 6930 7533 48564 20746 12735 3763 2797 53498 8310 26176 2722 3482 6735 16317 2264 3328 6852 12566 7759 12570 3220 20183 4415 4189 1714 11650 6211 7336 23808 8474 35694 11377 11585 6390 1996 6063 8707 6418 5574 22363 9632 3047 10133 12584 4374 6110 18312 17578 7453 30891 8628 4979 23251 72 9575 3480 9713 4597 15762 9264 14317 4194 13950 10981 33023 9351 6236 9279 10680 21368 4603 10924 2643 21489 6432 6126 4893 21521 6680 5529 6880 7753 1673 1898 23400 34342 5598 2897 5441 24106 5152 6924 44138 235 15121 15601 14724 5995 4245 4837 5841 7358 15284 1684 5410 7587 4516 18953 5590 4756 5917 8154 5478 8692 11393 14918 14811 22525 7451 7859 17094 8574 5381 6052 3433 21104 16001 20224 5212 3786 22148 5487 15985 13420 17604 11555 18497 5431 5567 3015 11031 10010 5423 2935 11493 6331 17925 8057 4249 6450 1005 28992 16719 5721 4896 7454 5208 26018 25878 24997 22302 17915 7191 7996 5876 7940 5046 8257 6437 1183 4455 8951 4717 8170 4113 6589 14334 29243 17377 4955 8548 24333 6890 8278 24893 6110 5339 11508 6444 10771 6685 5580 12317
Last daily increment 6 8 0 0 2 3 3 2 0 16 2 1 3 6 2 3 6 12 1 3 0 0 2 19 14 6 17 0 22 4 0 0 71 0 7 2 29 1 4 4 1 1 7 6 0 6 1 0 1 2 7 1 6 1 6 2 1 5 0 2 1 6 8 3 3 1 0 1 2 3 1 2 3 8 13 1 4 0 0 1 4 4 1 7 13 0 5 7 5 3 2 2 0 7 0 16 19 4 0 8 1 6 9 3 0 1 2 2 1 1 0 1 5 9 1 3 0 1 0 3 6 1 1 13 0 5 0 2 6 8 0 2 0 0 3 3 47 0 2 2 1 7 0 2 1 2 0 2 0 4 1 3 6 2 2 1 1 3 2 1 2 2 10 2 2 18 1 2 0 2 0 1 5 2 4 6 2 2 30 4 3 3 37 17 1 2 0 1 6 5 3 4 0 0 20 2 2 4 3 1 5 0 2 0 7 8 5 4 7 0 2 11 1 1 2 15 1 2 3 10 5 1 3 1 1 4 11 5 0 3 5 0 1 1 7 2 9 1 1 4 0 0 0 3 9 6 3 4 1 2 1 10 1 0 0 4 2 2 2 1 13 0 1 0 5 8 1 3 1 1 0 7 6 0 1 3 8 8 2 36 0 2 4 8 2 5 2 0 5 3 0 2 1 0 13 1 7 0 1 0 2 7 15 4 0 3 0 1 0 1 2 2 5 2 8 0 4 3 1 1 2 2 2 8 0 1 1 1 2 1 0 4 1 3 1 0 0 0 8 10 0 2 2 1 15 2 6 7 2 1 5 0 1 4 3 2 1 0 1 1 5 0 2 8 10 7 0 3 3 1 3 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3
Last week 40 24 9 1 5 14 55 6 0 56 27 11 14 21 10 33 55 116 5 14 13 18 20 115 52 32 181 22 143 30 1 3 439 21 42 13 208 7 23 76 8 5 44 49 7 36 6 5 27 21 35 10 78 16 40 10 18 52 6 16 2 57 50 7 23 28 13 23 51 33 13 13 7 29 83 21 27 0 4 5 28 37 6 80 91 8 26 73 26 21 19 11 5 46 4 107 131 28 11 58 9 25 121 31 9 9 21 14 12 32 6 18 25 71 16 32 5 25 3 14 38 11 6 194 6 39 7 20 24 82 6 8 5 18 25 30 312 8 15 16 19 49 11 9 32 21 8 25 32 30 14 19 60 22 10 9 23 27 46 18 27 14 112 25 12 106 18 26 2 18 2 13 36 33 35 40 71 28 210 17 45 45 354 124 7 36 9 29 31 63 58 18 4 3 194 19 29 18 16 5 27 6 14 11 42 18 59 26 49 8 6 87 7 16 27 101 12 38 41 76 32 8 18 22 14 19 93 68 13 32 44 13 6 60 43 26 110 30 8 58 0 28 8 29 22 55 68 26 13 43 29 48 19 7 11 25 14 12 25 10 95 5 11 5 94 39 6 17 22 6 4 71 66 11 4 33 128 56 12 241 0 43 34 27 16 17 11 11 17 46 19 30 29 3 66 29 41 15 15 10 8 21 87 23 31 16 14 21 15 19 11 12 76 56 51 14 15 21 10 20 20 14 29 59 6 8 10 14 19 10 7 30 22 12 12 14 4 3 63 58 12 23 6 18 152 59 33 53 20 7 33 11 10 34 22 29 6 11 8 15 33 9 47 60 81 70 6 30 29 15 22 54 7 6 15 9 18 15 8 31
Previous peak date07-2107-21 -- --10-2707-2112-2110-07 --12-21 --10-21 --10-25 -- -- -- --10-20 -- --10-2611-02 --10-07 --11-02 --10-1310-13 --10-2510-15 --11-02 --05-0310-26 -- -- -- --10-1611-02 -- -- -- --10-1209-2710-2709-02 -- --10-01 -- -- --10-25 -- --10-10 -- --11-02 -- --10-2710-18 --10-20 -- --10-1307-2107-2110-14 -- -- -- --10-29 --04-2010-3110-31 --10-2910-17 -- -- --10-2110-2712-2810-01 --10-12 -- --07-2107-21 -- -- --11-0107-2110-27 -- --07-2110-27 -- -- --10-30 --10-20 --10-06 -- -- --10-18 --07-21 -- -- --07-21 -- -- --10-1510-2910-1107-21 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-2810-2710-14 --10-12 --10-2710-30 -- -- --10-29 -- --10-1710-2707-21 --11-01 -- -- --10-1307-21 --06-11 -- -- -- -- -- --10-13 --09-29 --10-0804-1411-02 -- --10-31 --10-1209-2812-27 -- -- --11-0210-25 -- -- -- --10-15 -- -- --10-1212-2111-03 --09-30 -- -- --12-07 -- --11-02 -- -- --09-24 -- --10-14 -- -- --07-21 -- --10-31 -- --11-0308-02 -- --11-0211-01 --10-22 -- -- -- --07-21 --11-0211-02 --11-02 -- --11-0310-26 --07-21 --10-1110-10 --10-19 --10-11 -- -- -- --10-13 -- -- --11-0211-0210-3107-21 --09-3010-25 -- -- --10-28 -- -- --07-21 -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- --07-21 -- -- --10-13 --10-24 --12-21 -- -- --10-1710-0810-29 -- --07-2110-1810-12 -- -- --10-0610-31 -- -- -- --10-1811-04 -- --10-2910-1110-18 -- -- -- -- --10-26 -- -- --10-17 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-22 -- --10-22 -- -- -- -- --07-21 -- --07-21 --10-15 --10-1610-24 -- --09-3010-3010-11 --11-03 --10-1910-28 --10-17 -- --
Previous peak daily increment 616 365 80 295 134 40 260 61 40 31 75 271 262 1226 166 98 54 234 363 55 19 62 1197 57 72 160 31 54 39 60 294 35 120 54 62 1272 83 35 57 68 129 18 69 22 25 164 25 206 59 226 710 39 383 25 191 31 24 30 29 56 475 687 43 127 72 1766 70 33 54 60 69 57 38 22 44 144 49 59 248 45 46 153 81 75 479 56 71 480 273 2237 61 44 109 105 87 25 191 2429 91 53 1007 82 56 68 1343 64 257 230 139 354 150 88 41 459 41 46 194 65 67 406 233 81 152 189 33 104 226 66 876 66 75 247 20 118 77 149 184 120 129 18 172 46 89 27 17 45 144 135 23 307 376 24 319 68 141 22 25 38 54 32 67
Low between peaks 0 -1 28 0 8 18 13 26 -44 8 37 20 48 303 55 29 19 62 23 27 -19 21 68 19 34 54 12 23 7 26 28 -43 -38 17 31 -11 -4 -18 12 1 39 -9 28 -31 9 53 8 34 -47 -2 -3 -13 -3 -32 -1 10 -10 8 -67 19 -4 -5 -9 24 23 -7 22 -40 23 15 -120 -7 19 -66 -54 -1 15 21 -2 0 18 21 23 6 120 21 21 58 7 114 21 -25 39 6 35 8 7 18 23 -9 -7 35 16 7 50 28 58 1 20 37 38 22 13 -2 -20 -118 62 22 16 36 92 19 -4 26 14 31 -2 24 -7 28 24 8 -77 30 38 -1 43 43 58 -23 32 15 31 11 7 6 -31 -27 -71 -2 -2 -25 77 -103 19 -17 -8 8 27 12 -4

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-09 to 2021-05-15

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-05-08 7236 5877 2915 3161 8486 5952 15632 8311 9651 9810 11796 3869 23663 30582 19664 17671 8253 8209 8271 13678 22630 22444 101635 7115 18369 9263 26827 5000 25404 7114 49845 10835 6796 28754 6917 14610 30901 6045 24436 6259 7171 9967 17329 13452 14653 5806 14181 7112 10156 26247 8226 10791 7436 16068 1782 12571 12742 3774 9151 21010 21788 6168 4936 4289 7981 17205 2500 11377 5878 14278 2580 38197 23942 2845 7987 31028 8615 7575 10388 4299 20212 12390 23938 11925 7876 26900 4208 6966 31361 6417 3050 4215 5212 4897 8237 6459 2863 4844 4838 18371 9665 8943 5878 7393 29851 12457 5263 7300 5007 6781 5269 5626 5969 11557 9632 8080 4804 13820 8219 42033 6404 3882 10305 5543 22489 7423 3411 21753 11985 4218 13088 5169 20879 7976 7705 20966 4371 8941 6231 7095 26943 7090 8249 5030 3625 26745 6192 5715 25084 7899 8016 7712 6820 15071 9100 6125 7723 19981 12314 34548 17406 24333 9508 63356 36908 4933 21748 6601 6930 7533 48564 20746 12735 53498 8310 26176 2722 3482 16317 2264 3328 6852 12566 7759 12570 3220 20183 4415 4189 1714 11650 6211 7336 23808 8474 35694 11377 11585 6390 1996 6063 8707 6418 5574 22363 9632 3047 10133 12584 4374 6110 18312 17578 7453 30891 8628 4979 23251 9575 3480 9713 4597 15762 9264 14317 4194 13950 10981 33023 9351 6236 9279 10680 21368 4603 10924 2643 21489 6126 21521 6680 5529 6880 7753 1673 23400 34342 5598 5441 24106 5152 6924 44138 15121 15601 14724 5995 4245 4837 5841 7358 15284 1684 5410 7587 18953 5590 4756 5917 8154 5478 8692 11393 14918 14811 22525 7451 7859 17094 8574 5381 6052 3433 21104 16001 20224 5212 3786 22148 5487 15985 13420 17604 11555 18497 5431 5567 3015 11031 10010 5423 2935 11493 6331 17925 8057 4249 28992 16719 5721 4896 7454 5208 26018 25878 24997 22302 17915 7191 7996 5876 7940 5046 8257 6437 1183 4455 8951 4717 8170 4113 6589 14334 29243 17377 4955 8548 24333 6890 8278 24893 6110 5339 11508 6444 10771 6685 5580 12317
2021-05-09 7240 5879 2916 3163 8494 5953 15640 8313 9654 9812 11800 3870 23670 30600 19690 17680 8256 8219 8276 13700 22640 22450 101700 7118 18390 9267 26890 5005 25420 7116 49880 10840 6797 28780 6918 14610 30910 6049 24440 6260 7171 9970 17340 13460 14660 5808 14190 7114 10160 26250 8227 10790 7443 16080 1782 12580 12750 3775 9154 21030 21790 6170 4942 4291 7988 17230 2503 11380 5883 14290 2581 38230 23950 2847 7990 31040 8620 7580 10390 4301 20220 12410 23980 11930 7878 26910 4211 6972 31370 6424 3052 4217 5218 4900 8239 6463 2865 4846 4842 18380 9669 8956 5878 7396 29860 12460 5264 7319 5009 6789 5273 5637 5975 11570 9633 8081 4804 13820 8219 42080 6408 3882 10310 5544 22500 7426 3413 21760 11990 4219 13090 5173 20890 7978 7709 20980 4374 8943 6234 7098 26950 7097 8251 5030 3628 26760 6195 5719 25090 7908 8023 7719 6822 15080 9106 6126 7730 19990 12320 34590 17410 24340 9508 63380 36920 4935 21750 6603 6930 7537 48570 20760 12740 53530 8320 26180 2724 3482 16320 2265 3330 6857 12580 7763 12570 3224 20190 4416 4190 1724 11650 6213 7338 23830 8481 35700 11380 11590 6395 1998 6069 8711 6425 5577 22390 9645 3050 10140 12590 4375 6111 18310 17580 7456 30910 8638 4981 23260 9585 3481 9716 4602 15780 9264 14320 4195 13960 10990 33030 9354 6238 9284 10690 21370 4604 10930 2645 21490 6128 21530 6686 5530 6882 7755 1675 23410 34360 5600 5444 24120 5161 6927 44170 15130 15620 14730 5996 4248 4839 5843 7360 15290 1686 5416 7591 18970 5594 4764 5919 8157 5483 8698 11400 14920 14810 22530 7453 7861 17100 8575 5384 6054 3435 21110 16010 20230 5214 3788 22160 5488 15990 13420 17610 11560 18500 5436 5569 3017 11050 10020 5431 2936 11500 6334 17930 8061 4251 29000 16740 5726 4899 7455 5211 26050 25890 25000 22320 17930 7194 8000 5886 7942 5051 8259 6442 1184 4459 8955 4722 8178 4114 6595 14340 29250 17390 4956 8553 24340 6892 8282 24900 6112 5343 11510 6445 10780 6687 5582 12320
2021-05-10 7246 5884 2918 3163 8495 5954 15640 8315 9657 9816 11810 3871 23670 30620 19710 17680 8264 8227 8280 13710 22670 22460 101700 7123 18420 9267 26950 5011 25430 7121 49940 10840 6799 28800 6920 14620 30930 6054 24450 6264 7172 9973 17350 13460 14660 5811 14190 7116 10170 26260 8229 10790 7446 16080 1782 12580 12750 3776 9161 21040 21800 6172 4944 4296 7994 17260 2505 11380 5887 14300 2585 38250 23970 2852 7990 31040 8627 7586 10390 4305 20230 12430 24010 11940 7881 26920 4217 6979 31390 6439 3055 4220 5231 4902 8244 6466 2867 4849 4846 18400 9674 8968 5883 7403 29870 12470 5268 7340 5014 6797 5276 5642 5985 11600 9638 8082 4804 13830 8221 42100 6412 3885 10310 5545 22500 7435 3419 21770 11990 4222 13110 5178 20890 7980 7714 20990 4374 8952 6237 7099 26950 7106 8253 5031 3633 26770 6198 5722 25100 7914 8027 7726 6825 15080 9116 6132 7739 20010 12320 34630 17410 24350 9511 63440 36940 4936 21760 6606 6932 7540 48580 20790 12740 53570 8328 26190 2724 3484 16330 2270 3333 6862 12600 7771 12570 3228 20200 4419 4190 1724 11660 6218 7341 23850 8489 35700 11390 11600 6399 2001 6073 8716 6428 5581 22450 9672 3052 10150 12590 4377 6116 18320 17590 7458 30920 8647 4983 23270 9594 3482 9717 4612 15800 9266 14330 4198 13970 11000 33050 9357 6242 9288 10700 21370 4604 10940 2646 21490 6130 21560 6693 5534 6884 7755 1677 23430 34380 5606 5449 24130 5177 6931 44200 15140 15640 14740 5999 4254 4841 5853 7362 15300 1687 5426 7595 18980 5595 4772 5923 8161 5487 8700 11400 14930 14810 22550 7455 7863 17100 8575 5389 6058 3438 21120 16010 20260 5216 3790 22170 5490 16000 13420 17620 11580 18510 5439 5572 3020 11060 10020 5437 2938 11500 6339 17930 8064 4251 29020 16760 5729 4904 7457 5217 26090 25900 25010 22330 17940 7200 8001 5894 7948 5054 8261 6444 1185 4466 8958 4726 8186 4118 6598 14360 29260 17400 4960 8561 24340 6895 8289 24910 6117 5344 11520 6447 10790 6689 5584 12330
2021-05-11 7253 5890 2919 3164 8500 5955 15640 8321 9660 9818 11820 3872 23680 30630 19730 17680 8269 8236 8288 13730 22680 22460 101800 7128 18450 9267 27010 5016 25430 7124 49980 10840 6802 28810 6922 14630 30940 6055 24450 6266 7176 9977 17350 13460 14680 5814 14200 7118 10170 26270 8230 10800 7451 16090 1782 12590 12750 3777 9166 21050 21810 6175 4946 4299 7998 17290 2508 11380 5891 14310 2587 38270 23980 2855 7991 31050 8634 7592 10400 4308 20230 12450 24040 11950 7884 26930 4222 6985 31410 6450 3057 4222 5241 4905 8247 6469 2870 4853 4851 18420 9677 8976 5886 7408 29880 12470 5271 7359 5018 6805 5278 5645 5993 11620 9640 8083 4804 13830 8222 42130 6413 3889 10320 5547 22510 7442 3423 21780 11990 4225 13120 5182 20900 7982 7719 21010 4376 8958 6237 7101 26960 7114 8256 5036 3638 26780 6200 5725 25120 7916 8032 7731 6827 15080 9124 6138 7750 20020 12330 34670 17410 24360 9517 63510 36960 4937 21770 6608 6939 7543 48590 20810 12750 53630 8334 26190 2724 3487 16340 2272 3336 6866 12610 7776 12570 3232 20200 4421 4190 1724 11660 6222 7345 23860 8492 35700 11390 11610 6404 2003 6075 8720 6431 5584 22490 9692 3054 10150 12600 4378 6120 18320 17600 7460 30940 8653 4986 23290 9601 3483 9719 4620 15810 9272 14340 4199 13980 11000 33060 9360 6245 9291 10710 21380 4604 10950 2648 21510 6132 21570 6700 5537 6885 7755 1679 23440 34390 5610 5454 24140 5189 6934 44240 15150 15650 14740 6001 4258 4844 5859 7364 15310 1688 5430 7600 19000 5598 4780 5925 8164 5489 8702 11410 14940 14820 22560 7458 7864 17100 8576 5391 6061 3440 21130 16020 20270 5218 3791 22180 5491 16010 13430 17630 11590 18520 5440 5574 3022 11060 10020 5439 2940 11500 6342 17940 8068 4253 29030 16770 5731 4908 7458 5221 26110 25920 25020 22350 17940 7206 8003 5899 7951 5058 8263 6451 1185 4472 8959 4729 8195 4120 6607 14370 29270 17420 4963 8568 24350 6898 8295 24920 6120 5346 11520 6448 10790 6690 5585 12340
2021-05-12 7264 5896 2920 3165 8505 5956 15650 8326 9663 9821 11820 3873 23680 30650 19760 17690 8273 8243 8292 13750 22700 22470 101800 7131 18460 9267 27070 5021 25440 7127 50020 10850 6805 28830 6923 14640 30960 6057 24460 6268 7178 9982 17360 13470 14690 5816 14210 7118 10170 26270 8231 10800 7456 16100 1782 12600 12760 3778 9170 21050 21810 6177 4951 4302 8002 17310 2511 11390 5896 14310 2589 38290 23990 2858 7993 31060 8639 7594 10400 4311 20240 12460 24060 11950 7887 26940 4227 6991 31430 6460 3059 4224 5249 4908 8250 6473 2872 4855 4856 18440 9681 8984 5890 7412 29880 12470 5273 7379 5020 6812 5280 5650 6000 11640 9642 8086 4804 13840 8226 42170 6415 3891 10320 5551 22520 7447 3426 21790 12000 4227 13120 5186 20910 7985 7724 21020 4378 8962 6238 7104 26970 7122 8258 5042 3642 26790 6203 5727 25140 7922 8038 7736 6829 15090 9131 6144 7756 20030 12330 34710 17410 24370 9523 63580 36980 4941 21780 6610 6944 7547 48600 20830 12750 53680 8339 26200 2724 3491 16350 2275 3338 6868 12620 7781 12570 3235 20210 4423 4191 1729 11660 6225 7350 23880 8499 35710 11390 11620 6410 2005 6077 8724 6433 5587 22530 9708 3057 10160 12600 4379 6122 18320 17610 7462 30960 8660 4987 23310 9607 3484 9721 4627 15820 9275 14340 4201 13990 11010 33070 9362 6247 9294 10720 21380 4605 10950 2650 21520 6134 21590 6705 5539 6887 7756 1681 23460 34410 5613 5461 24150 5200 6937 44280 15160 15660 14750 6005 4262 4845 5863 7367 15310 1690 5435 7604 19020 5601 4788 5928 8167 5493 8704 11410 14950 14820 22560 7460 7866 17110 8577 5396 6064 3443 21140 16030 20290 5222 3793 22180 5492 16010 13430 17630 11600 18540 5444 5576 3024 11070 10030 5443 2941 11510 6345 17940 8069 4254 29040 16780 5737 4911 7459 5225 26140 25930 25030 22360 17950 7211 8006 5902 7954 5062 8265 6455 1186 4477 8961 4732 8204 4122 6616 14380 29280 17430 4965 8573 24360 6900 8299 24930 6123 5348 11530 6450 10800 6692 5586 12350
2021-05-13 7268 5903 2922 3167 8511 5957 15650 8328 9665 9824 11830 3874 23680 30660 19770 17690 8277 8245 8297 13770 22710 22470 101800 7135 18480 9269 27130 5024 25450 7130 50060 10850 6807 28840 6925 14640 30980 6058 24460 6269 7181 9985 17360 13470 14700 5818 14210 7121 10180 26280 8232 10800 7462 16110 1783 12600 12760 3779 9174 21060 21820 6178 4953 4305 8006 17330 2513 11390 5899 14320 2591 38310 24000 2860 7995 31070 8644 7597 10400 4313 20250 12480 24090 11960 7889 26940 4232 6996 31440 6470 3061 4226 5256 4910 8253 6476 2873 4857 4861 18450 9684 8990 5892 7416 29890 12470 5275 7399 5023 6820 5282 5655 6007 11650 9644 8086 4804 13840 8230 42210 6417 3891 10320 5554 22520 7451 3428 21800 12000 4228 13130 5190 20910 7987 7729 21030 4380 8965 6239 7106 26970 7130 8260 5045 3646 26810 6206 5729 25150 7924 8041 7741 6832 15090 9137 6151 7761 20040 12340 34740 17410 24380 9531 63660 37000 4942 21780 6611 6952 7550 48610 20840 12750 53730 8347 26200 2724 3494 16350 2277 3340 6869 12640 7786 12570 3239 20220 4425 4192 1735 11670 6228 7355 23900 8503 35710 11400 11630 6416 2007 6082 8727 6436 5591 22560 9724 3060 10160 12610 4381 6125 18330 17610 7465 30980 8665 4989 23320 9612 3486 9724 4633 15840 9279 14340 4202 14000 11020 33080 9365 6249 9296 10730 21380 4605 10950 2652 21530 6136 21600 6711 5541 6889 7758 1683 23470 34420 5616 5464 24160 5210 6940 44320 15170 15660 14750 6006 4265 4847 5867 7369 15320 1692 5438 7608 19040 5604 4796 5931 8170 5494 8706 11410 14960 14820 22570 7462 7868 17110 8577 5398 6066 3446 21150 16030 20300 5224 3795 22190 5494 16020 13430 17640 11610 18540 5446 5578 3026 11070 10030 5446 2942 11510 6348 17950 8071 4256 29050 16790 5740 4914 7460 5229 26160 25940 25030 22370 17950 7217 8009 5904 7957 5066 8267 6458 1187 4481 8963 4735 8213 4124 6621 14390 29290 17440 4967 8579 24360 6903 8304 24940 6125 5349 11530 6451 10800 6694 5587 12360
2021-05-14 7278 5909 2923 3169 8518 5957 15660 8334 9666 9826 11840 3876 23690 30680 19790 17690 8280 8247 8302 13780 22720 22480 101900 7138 18500 9272 27200 5025 25450 7133 50090 10850 6809 28850 6926 14650 31000 6059 24470 6271 7185 9987 17370 13470 14700 5820 14220 7122 10180 26290 8233 10800 7469 16120 1783 12610 12760 3780 9177 21070 21820 6180 4955 4307 8009 17350 2516 11390 5901 14320 2592 38320 24010 2862 7997 31080 8649 7600 10400 4315 20260 12500 24100 11960 7892 26950 4237 7001 31460 6479 3062 4228 5263 4913 8255 6480 2875 4860 4865 18460 9687 8994 5896 7420 29900 12470 5277 7418 5025 6827 5283 5659 6013 11670 9646 8086 4805 13850 8234 42260 6417 3892 10330 5557 22530 7455 3430 21800 12000 4230 13140 5194 20920 7989 7735 21040 4382 8968 6240 7108 26970 7137 8262 5052 3651 26820 6209 5731 25160 7926 8045 7742 6834 15100 9143 6155 7764 20050 12340 34780 17410 24380 9536 63720 37010 4943 21790 6613 6960 7554 48620 20850 12750 53770 8348 26210 2724 3494 16360 2278 3343 6870 12650 7790 12570 3242 20220 4426 4192 1743 11670 6230 7358 23920 8506 35720 11410 11640 6422 2009 6082 8731 6438 5594 22600 9738 3061 10170 12610 4382 6126 18330 17620 7468 31010 8670 4990 23320 9616 3487 9727 4639 15850 9280 14340 4204 14000 11020 33090 9367 6251 9297 10740 21390 4606 10960 2655 21550 6138 21620 6717 5543 6891 7760 1685 23480 34430 5618 5468 24170 5220 6942 44350 15170 15670 14750 6009 4269 4849 5869 7372 15320 1694 5443 7612 19060 5607 4803 5933 8173 5496 8708 11420 14970 14820 22580 7465 7870 17110 8578 5399 6069 3449 21160 16040 20310 5227 3798 22190 5495 16020 13440 17640 11620 18550 5446 5580 3028 11070 10030 5447 2944 11510 6351 17950 8072 4257 29060 16800 5740 4917 7461 5232 26190 25940 25040 22370 17960 7223 8013 5906 7959 5071 8270 6463 1189 4485 8965 4738 8221 4125 6624 14400 29300 17440 4969 8584 24370 6905 8308 24940 6127 5351 11530 6452 10810 6697 5588 12370
2021-05-15 7286 5918 2925 3171 8525 5958 15660 8336 9667 9828 11840 3877 23690 30690 19800 17690 8283 8248 8306 13800 22730 22480 101900 7142 18510 9275 27260 5027 25460 7135 50130 10850 6812 28860 6927 14650 31020 6060 24480 6272 7186 9988 17370 13470 14710 5822 14220 7124 10180 26290 8234 10810 7475 16120 1784 12610 12770 3781 9181 21070 21830 6182 4957 4309 8015 17370 2519 11390 5904 14330 2594 38320 24020 2864 7999 31090 8653 7602 10400 4317 20260 12510 24120 11960 7894 26960 4241 7006 31470 6488 3064 4230 5269 4914 8257 6484 2877 4861 4870 18470 9688 8997 5898 7423 29900 12470 5278 7438 5027 6834 5283 5662 6019 11690 9647 8088 4805 13850 8236 42310 6417 3894 10330 5559 22540 7458 3432 21810 12010 4232 13140 5198 20920 7991 7741 21050 4384 8971 6242 7111 26980 7144 8264 5056 3655 26830 6212 5732 25180 7928 8048 7745 6835 15100 9149 6157 7769 20060 12350 34800 17420 24390 9537 63780 37030 4944 21800 6614 6964 7558 48620 20870 12760 53810 8350 26210 2725 3496 16360 2280 3345 6870 12650 7794 12580 3246 20230 4427 4193 1752 11670 6232 7360 23940 8507 35720 11410 11640 6429 2011 6085 8734 6438 5597 22630 9752 3061 10170 12620 4384 6128 18330 17630 7472 31030 8672 4992 23330 9617 3488 9730 4645 15850 9285 14340 4205 14000 11020 33100 9370 6253 9297 10750 21390 4607 10960 2657 21560 6140 21630 6722 5545 6893 7762 1687 23490 34430 5620 5471 24180 5229 6945 44380 15170 15680 14760 6011 4272 4850 5872 7374 15330 1696 5445 7615 19080 5611 4811 5936 8176 5496 8709 11420 14980 14830 22580 7467 7872 17120 8579 5400 6071 3452 21170 16040 20320 5227 3800 22190 5496 16030 13440 17650 11630 18560 5446 5581 3029 11070 10030 5448 2945 11520 6354 17950 8073 4259 29070 16810 5740 4920 7462 5235 26200 25940 25040 22380 17960 7229 8017 5906 7962 5075 8272 6465 1190 4489 8966 4741 8230 4127 6626 14410 29310 17450 4970 8589 24370 6906 8312 24940 6129 5351 11530 6453 10810 6699 5589 12390

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-09 to 2021-05-15

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-05-08 7236 5877 2915 3161 8486 5952 15632 8311 9651 9810 11796 3869 23663 30582 19664 17671 8253 8209 8271 13678 22630 22444 101635 7115 18369 9263 26827 5000 25404 7114 49845 10835 6796 28754 6917 14610 30901 6045 24436 6259 7171 9967 17329 13452 14653 5806 14181 7112 10156 26247 8226 10791 7436 16068 1782 12571 12742 3774 9151 21010 21788 6168 4936 4289 7981 17205 2500 11377 5878 14278 2580 38197 23942 2845 7987 31028 8615 7575 10388 4299 20212 12390 23938 11925 7876 26900 4208 6966 31361 6417 3050 4215 5212 4897 8237 6459 2863 4844 4838 18371 9665 8943 5878 7393 29851 12457 5263 7300 5007 6781 5269 5626 5969 11557 9632 8080 4804 13820 8219 42033 6404 3882 10305 5543 22489 7423 3411 21753 11985 4218 13088 5169 20879 7976 7705 20966 4371 8941 6231 7095 26943 7090 8249 5030 3625 26745 6192 5715 25084 7899 8016 7712 6820 15071 9100 6125 7723 19981 12314 34548 17406 24333 9508 63356 36908 4933 21748 6601 6930 7533 48564 20746 12735 53498 8310 26176 2722 3482 16317 2264 3328 6852 12566 7759 12570 3220 20183 4415 4189 1714 11650 6211 7336 23808 8474 35694 11377 11585 6390 1996 6063 8707 6418 5574 22363 9632 3047 10133 12584 4374 6110 18312 17578 7453 30891 8628 4979 23251 9575 3480 9713 4597 15762 9264 14317 4194 13950 10981 33023 9351 6236 9279 10680 21368 4603 10924 2643 21489 6126 21521 6680 5529 6880 7753 1673 23400 34342 5598 5441 24106 5152 6924 44138 15121 15601 14724 5995 4245 4837 5841 7358 15284 1684 5410 7587 18953 5590 4756 5917 8154 5478 8692 11393 14918 14811 22525 7451 7859 17094 8574 5381 6052 3433 21104 16001 20224 5212 3786 22148 5487 15985 13420 17604 11555 18497 5431 5567 3015 11031 10010 5423 2935 11493 6331 17925 8057 4249 28992 16719 5721 4896 7454 5208 26018 25878 24997 22302 17915 7191 7996 5876 7940 5046 8257 6437 1183 4455 8951 4717 8170 4113 6589 14334 29243 17377 4955 8548 24333 6890 8278 24893 6110 5339 11508 6444 10771 6685 5580 12317
2021-05-09 7241 5881 2916 3164 8493 5953 15640 8315 9652 9812 11800 3870 23670 30590 19680 17670 8255 8213 8275 13690 22640 22450 101700 7118 18390 9267 26890 5002 25410 7117 49870 10840 6801 28770 6918 14620 30910 6045 24440 6260 7173 9970 17340 13450 14660 5809 14190 7114 10160 26250 8227 10790 7443 16080 1783 12570 12740 3775 9153 21020 21790 6170 4939 4291 7986 17220 2503 11380 5883 14290 2581 38210 23960 2846 7990 31040 8620 7578 10390 4301 20220 12410 23960 11930 7878 26910 4211 6972 31380 6424 3052 4216 5216 4899 8239 6463 2865 4846 4843 18380 9666 8948 5880 7396 29860 12460 5264 7322 5009 6787 5270 5633 5975 11570 9633 8082 4805 13820 8221 42080 6405 3883 10310 5545 22490 7425 3413 21760 11990 4219 13090 5171 20880 7978 7708 20970 4375 8944 6233 7097 26950 7094 8251 5033 3628 26760 6195 5717 25100 7903 8022 7714 6822 15080 9105 6128 7728 19990 12320 34580 17410 24340 9512 63390 36920 4934 21750 6603 6932 7536 48570 20760 12740 53530 8312 26180 2724 3483 16320 2266 3330 6853 12570 7763 12580 3224 20190 4416 4190 1723 11650 6213 7338 23830 8475 35700 11380 11590 6396 1998 6067 8710 6422 5577 22380 9644 3048 10140 12590 4375 6111 18320 17590 7455 30910 8632 4980 23260 9579 3481 9717 4603 15770 9271 14320 4195 13960 10990 33030 9353 6237 9281 10690 21370 4604 10930 2644 21500 6128 21530 6686 5530 6883 7755 1674 23410 34350 5601 5444 24120 5160 6927 44180 15130 15610 14730 5997 4249 4839 5841 7361 15290 1685 5415 7591 18970 5594 4761 5919 8156 5480 8694 11400 14930 14820 22530 7453 7861 17100 8576 5383 6054 3436 21110 16010 20230 5214 3789 22150 5488 15990 13420 17610 11560 18500 5433 5569 3016 11030 10010 5426 2936 11500 6333 17930 8059 4250 29000 16730 5723 4899 7455 5210 26030 25880 25000 22310 17920 7193 8000 5879 7941 5051 8259 6442 1184 4457 8952 4720 8179 4114 6598 14340 29250 17390 4956 8552 24340 6891 8282 24900 6112 5340 11510 6445 10770 6687 5581 12320
2021-05-10 7250 5888 2917 3167 8499 5955 15640 8318 9654 9815 11810 3871 23670 30600 19700 17680 8259 8217 8279 13710 22650 22450 101700 7122 18410 9268 26950 5005 25420 7120 49920 10840 6804 28780 6919 14620 30920 6048 24450 6261 7176 9973 17350 13460 14670 5813 14190 7116 10160 26260 8228 10790 7448 16080 1783 12580 12750 3776 9156 21030 21800 6172 4942 4294 7990 17250 2506 11380 5888 14300 2583 38230 23970 2848 7991 31050 8625 7583 10390 4303 20220 12420 23980 11940 7880 26920 4217 6979 31400 6437 3053 4218 5227 4901 8242 6466 2868 4849 4850 18390 9670 8956 5885 7401 29870 12460 5266 7346 5012 6797 5272 5635 5982 11590 9635 8083 4806 13830 8222 42130 6408 3886 10310 5546 22500 7428 3416 21770 11990 4222 13100 5174 20890 7980 7713 20980 4376 8947 6236 7098 26950 7105 8254 5035 3634 26770 6198 5719 25120 7908 8032 7717 6824 15080 9113 6133 7736 20000 12320 34610 17410 24350 9514 63460 36940 4935 21760 6605 6936 7538 48580 20770 12740 53560 8318 26190 2724 3485 16330 2268 3332 6856 12590 7766 12580 3226 20200 4418 4191 1730 11650 6216 7340 23840 8478 35710 11390 11600 6404 1999 6070 8713 6425 5581 22420 9662 3050 10140 12600 4376 6113 18320 17590 7457 30920 8639 4982 23270 9587 3483 9718 4610 15780 9280 14330 4196 13960 10990 33040 9356 6240 9285 10700 21370 4605 10930 2646 21510 6129 21550 6692 5532 6885 7757 1676 23420 34360 5605 5449 24140 5171 6930 44210 15140 15610 14730 5998 4256 4840 5844 7364 15300 1687 5423 7598 18990 5598 4765 5922 8159 5483 8695 11400 14940 14820 22540 7454 7863 17100 8578 5387 6057 3440 21120 16010 20240 5216 3791 22160 5490 16000 13430 17610 11570 18510 5435 5571 3018 11040 10020 5430 2937 11500 6336 17930 8062 4250 29010 16730 5724 4901 7456 5212 26060 25900 25010 22320 17930 7197 8003 5884 7944 5055 8262 6446 1184 4464 8953 4723 8190 4115 6603 14350 29260 17400 4958 8558 24340 6893 8287 24900 6114 5341 11510 6446 10780 6689 5582 12330
2021-05-11 7258 5894 2918 3169 8507 5957 15650 8323 9656 9817 11810 3872 23680 30610 19720 17680 8262 8222 8286 13720 22660 22450 101700 7126 18430 9270 27000 5009 25430 7123 49950 10840 6808 28790 6921 14620 30930 6049 24460 6262 7180 9977 17350 13460 14690 5816 14200 7117 10170 26260 8229 10800 7453 16090 1784 12580 12750 3777 9158 21040 21800 6174 4945 4297 7993 17280 2509 11390 5892 14300 2585 38250 23980 2850 7994 31060 8629 7588 10390 4305 20230 12440 23990 11940 7883 26930 4223 6987 31420 6448 3055 4219 5235 4904 8244 6471 2871 4852 4856 18400 9674 8963 5887 7404 29870 12460 5267 7369 5015 6808 5274 5637 5987 11620 9637 8084 4807 13830 8222 42190 6409 3889 10320 5548 22510 7431 3418 21770 11990 4224 13110 5177 20890 7983 7717 20990 4378 8950 6237 7099 26960 7117 8256 5038 3639 26780 6201 5720 25130 7911 8042 7720 6826 15090 9119 6137 7747 20010 12330 34650 17410 24360 9517 63520 36960 4936 21760 6607 6941 7541 48590 20780 12750 53610 8321 26190 2724 3487 16340 2270 3334 6858 12600 7769 12590 3231 20200 4419 4192 1739 11660 6218 7342 23860 8479 35720 11390 11610 6411 2001 6072 8715 6427 5584 22460 9679 3051 10150 12600 4377 6114 18330 17600 7459 30940 8645 4984 23280 9595 3485 9720 4616 15790 9290 14330 4197 13970 11000 33050 9358 6242 9288 10710 21370 4606 10940 2648 21530 6131 21570 6698 5533 6886 7760 1677 23440 34360 5607 5453 24150 5181 6933 44250 15140 15620 14740 6000 4262 4841 5847 7366 15300 1690 5428 7601 19010 5604 4769 5924 8162 5485 8696 11400 14950 14820 22550 7456 7865 17100 8579 5389 6059 3444 21130 16020 20250 5218 3792 22160 5491 16000 13430 17620 11580 18520 5436 5573 3019 11050 10020 5433 2938 11500 6339 17930 8065 4251 29010 16740 5726 4903 7457 5215 26070 25910 25020 22330 17930 7200 8006 5889 7946 5060 8264 6454 1185 4470 8954 4726 8202 4118 6613 14370 29260 17410 4959 8563 24350 6894 8291 24910 6116 5342 11520 6448 10780 6691 5584 12340
2021-05-12 7271 5902 2920 3172 8514 5958 15650 8328 9657 9819 11820 3873 23690 30620 19740 17680 8265 8226 8288 13740 22670 22460 101800 7129 18450 9273 27050 5013 25430 7126 49990 10840 6811 28810 6922 14630 30950 6050 24460 6263 7183 9981 17360 13460 14700 5819 14200 7118 10170 26270 8230 10800 7459 16100 1784 12590 12750 3779 9160 21050 21810 6176 4948 4298 7996 17310 2512 11390 5897 14310 2587 38270 24000 2852 7998 31060 8633 7591 10400 4306 20240 12460 24010 11950 7886 26940 4229 6993 31440 6459 3057 4220 5242 4906 8245 6475 2873 4854 4862 18410 9677 8970 5890 7408 29880 12470 5268 7394 5017 6819 5275 5641 5991 11640 9638 8086 4808 13840 8224 42260 6411 3890 10320 5550 22510 7434 3420 21780 11990 4226 13110 5180 20900 7985 7721 20990 4380 8952 6239 7100 26960 7124 8258 5042 3644 26790 6203 5722 25150 7916 8052 7722 6828 15090 9124 6142 7753 20020 12330 34680 17420 24370 9521 63590 36980 4937 21770 6608 6946 7543 48600 20790 12750 53650 8325 26200 2725 3489 16340 2271 3337 6859 12610 7771 12590 3235 20210 4421 4193 1748 11660 6221 7344 23880 8481 35720 11400 11610 6419 2003 6073 8717 6429 5587 22490 9694 3053 10150 12610 4378 6115 18340 17600 7462 30970 8651 4985 23290 9601 3486 9722 4623 15790 9299 14330 4198 13980 11000 33060 9361 6244 9291 10720 21380 4607 10940 2649 21540 6132 21580 6704 5535 6888 7762 1679 23450 34370 5610 5457 24170 5190 6936 44290 15150 15620 14740 6002 4268 4843 5851 7369 15310 1692 5434 7607 19030 5608 4773 5927 8165 5488 8697 11410 14960 14820 22550 7457 7868 17100 8582 5393 6061 3448 21140 16030 20250 5222 3795 22170 5492 16010 13430 17620 11590 18530 5438 5575 3020 11050 10020 5436 2940 11500 6342 17940 8066 4251 29020 16750 5729 4906 7458 5217 26090 25920 25020 22340 17940 7203 8009 5892 7947 5064 8267 6459 1186 4475 8954 4728 8213 4119 6622 14380 29270 17420 4959 8567 24360 6895 8295 24920 6119 5344 11520 6449 10790 6694 5584 12350
2021-05-13 7277 5910 2921 3175 8522 5959 15650 8332 9659 9822 11820 3874 23690 30630 19760 17680 8268 8230 8291 13750 22680 22460 101800 7133 18460 9276 27110 5015 25440 7128 50020 10840 6813 28820 6923 14630 30960 6051 24470 6263 7185 9984 17370 13460 14710 5822 14210 7120 10170 26280 8230 10800 7465 16100 1785 12590 12750 3780 9162 21060 21810 6178 4950 4300 7999 17340 2516 11390 5900 14310 2588 38280 24010 2853 8000 31070 8637 7594 10400 4307 20250 12470 24030 11950 7888 26940 4235 7000 31460 6471 3058 4221 5253 4909 8247 6479 2876 4855 4868 18410 9679 8976 5893 7411 29880 12470 5269 7424 5020 6828 5277 5645 5997 11670 9640 8087 4810 13840 8225 42320 6413 3892 10320 5552 22520 7436 3421 21790 11990 4227 13120 5184 20900 7987 7726 21000 4383 8955 6241 7101 26960 7130 8260 5045 3649 26810 6205 5723 25160 7919 8060 7726 6830 15100 9129 6148 7759 20030 12340 34710 17420 24380 9524 63660 36990 4939 21770 6610 6951 7545 48610 20800 12750 53680 8332 26200 2725 3491 16350 2272 3339 6861 12610 7773 12600 3238 20210 4422 4193 1757 11660 6223 7346 23900 8483 35720 11400 11620 6427 2004 6076 8719 6431 5589 22520 9708 3055 10150 12610 4379 6117 18350 17610 7465 30990 8655 4987 23300 9606 3488 9724 4630 15800 9308 14340 4199 13990 11010 33060 9363 6246 9293 10730 21380 4608 10940 2651 21550 6134 21590 6709 5536 6890 7764 1681 23460 34380 5613 5460 24180 5199 6939 44320 15160 15630 14750 6004 4274 4844 5853 7371 15310 1694 5438 7610 19050 5611 4777 5930 8168 5490 8698 11410 14970 14830 22560 7458 7870 17110 8583 5395 6063 3452 21150 16040 20260 5224 3798 22170 5494 16010 13430 17620 11600 18540 5439 5577 3021 11050 10020 5438 2941 11500 6345 17940 8068 4252 29030 16750 5732 4908 7459 5219 26100 25930 25030 22350 17940 7207 8012 5894 7949 5068 8270 6463 1186 4481 8956 4731 8225 4120 6625 14390 29280 17430 4961 8572 24360 6896 8300 24920 6121 5345 11520 6449 10790 6697 5585 12350
2021-05-14 7288 5918 2923 3178 8530 5960 15650 8336 9659 9824 11830 3875 23700 30630 19780 17690 8270 8233 8295 13770 22690 22460 101800 7136 18480 9279 27160 5017 25450 7131 50060 10840 6815 28830 6924 14630 30970 6052 24480 6264 7188 9986 17370 13470 14720 5825 14210 7121 10170 26280 8231 10800 7472 16110 1785 12590 12750 3781 9164 21070 21820 6180 4952 4301 8001 17360 2520 11390 5903 14320 2590 38300 24020 2854 8001 31080 8641 7599 10400 4309 20250 12490 24050 11960 7891 26950 4242 7007 31470 6481 3060 4222 5261 4912 8248 6483 2879 4857 4875 18420 9684 8982 5895 7414 29890 12470 5270 7450 5022 6838 5279 5650 6001 11690 9641 8088 4811 13840 8226 42390 6414 3893 10320 5554 22520 7438 3423 21790 11990 4229 13120 5187 20910 7990 7730 21000 4385 8957 6243 7103 26970 7138 8262 5050 3655 26820 6208 5724 25170 7922 8068 7728 6832 15100 9135 6151 7764 20030 12340 34750 17420 24380 9526 63710 37010 4939 21780 6611 6956 7548 48610 20810 12750 53710 8336 26210 2726 3492 16350 2274 3341 6862 12630 7775 12610 3242 20220 4424 4194 1766 11660 6225 7347 23910 8484 35730 11410 11620 6435 2005 6077 8721 6433 5592 22550 9722 3056 10160 12620 4380 6118 18350 17610 7468 31000 8661 4988 23310 9612 3490 9725 4638 15810 9316 14340 4200 14000 11010 33070 9366 6248 9295 10750 21380 4609 10950 2653 21560 6135 21600 6715 5537 6892 7765 1682 23470 34380 5614 5462 24200 5208 6942 44360 15170 15640 14750 6006 4279 4845 5856 7373 15320 1696 5444 7614 19080 5612 4781 5932 8170 5492 8699 11410 14980 14830 22570 7459 7872 17110 8585 5397 6064 3456 21160 16040 20270 5227 3800 22180 5494 16010 13440 17630 11610 18540 5440 5579 3022 11060 10020 5440 2943 11510 6348 17940 8069 4253 29030 16760 5733 4910 7460 5220 26110 25930 25030 22350 17950 7210 8016 5898 7951 5071 8272 6467 1187 4487 8957 4734 8237 4121 6627 14400 29280 17440 4961 8576 24370 6897 8303 24930 6123 5347 11530 6450 10790 6699 5586 12360
2021-05-15 7298 5927 2924 3181 8538 5961 15660 8338 9660 9827 11830 3876 23700 30640 19800 17690 8273 8236 8298 13780 22700 22470 101800 7138 18490 9282 27210 5020 25450 7133 50100 10840 6817 28840 6925 14630 30980 6053 24480 6265 7190 9987 17370 13470 14730 5828 14210 7123 10180 26290 8232 10800 7478 16120 1786 12590 12760 3782 9166 21070 21820 6181 4954 4303 8005 17390 2524 11400 5906 14320 2591 38310 24030 2856 8004 31090 8645 7602 10400 4310 20260 12510 24060 11960 7893 26960 4249 7013 31490 6492 3061 4222 5270 4913 8250 6487 2882 4857 4881 18430 9685 8988 5896 7416 29900 12470 5271 7472 5024 6850 5280 5653 6005 11710 9642 8089 4812 13850 8228 42440 6415 3894 10330 5555 22530 7440 3424 21800 12000 4231 13130 5190 20910 7992 7735 21010 4387 8959 6246 7104 26970 7145 8264 5053 3661 26830 6211 5725 25180 7926 8075 7730 6834 15110 9139 6154 7769 20040 12340 34780 17420 24390 9526 63750 37020 4940 21790 6612 6960 7550 48620 20820 12760 53740 8340 26210 2727 3493 16360 2275 3343 6864 12630 7778 12610 3246 20220 4425 4194 1776 11660 6227 7348 23930 8485 35730 11410 11630 6444 2007 6079 8723 6434 5595 22580 9736 3056 10160 12620 4382 6118 18360 17620 7470 31020 8665 4989 23320 9618 3492 9727 4645 15810 9325 14340 4200 14000 11020 33080 9368 6250 9297 10760 21380 4610 10950 2655 21570 6137 21610 6720 5538 6894 7767 1684 23480 34390 5616 5464 24210 5216 6944 44390 15170 15640 14750 6006 4285 4846 5857 7376 15320 1699 5448 7616 19100 5616 4785 5934 8173 5493 8701 11420 14990 14830 22570 7460 7874 17110 8587 5398 6066 3460 21170 16050 20270 5228 3802 22180 5495 16020 13440 17630 11610 18550 5441 5581 3023 11060 10030 5443 2943 11510 6350 17950 8071 4254 29040 16760 5734 4912 7461 5222 26120 25940 25040 22360 17950 7214 8019 5901 7952 5074 8274 6472 1188 4492 8958 4736 8250 4122 6630 14400 29280 17440 4962 8580 24370 6898 8306 24930 6124 5347 11530 6450 10800 6702 5587 12370

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.