COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-05-12 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-05-12

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-05-12

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2812-2712-2712-2612-2712-262021-03-2512-2707-212021-03-2512-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1112-3012-2112-2612-2212-2912-2712-2712-2912-072021-01-072021-01-0311-132021-01-0112-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2812-3012-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-2110-2812-3012-2212-2812-2512-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-3010-042021-01-0412-262021-01-0512-2912-2612-2712-2912-2411-0212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-282021-01-022021-02-2512-2110-1412-2712-0712-2612-2210-0412-2707-2112-2412-2910-0412-2412-2111-0912-0612-2607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-0609-2712-2712-2312-2712-2212-2812-2512-1812-252021-01-0412-2612-2610-0412-2112-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-2712-2812-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-2212-2912-2812-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0112-2112-2812-2112-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2110-2712-2712-292021-01-0611-022021-01-0312-2112-2712-2711-0212-2112-262021-04-0312-2212-2112-3112-292021-01-0212-2211-012021-01-0712-0812-2112-2112-2112-2212-212021-03-2512-3107-2112-2212-2712-0607-212021-03-1812-2812-292021-01-0311-0312-2712-0612-2707-2112-0812-2710-2612-2612-2110-0411-0112-2112-2911-0412-212021-01-0412-2712-212021-01-0112-2912-2911-0212-2807-2112-2712-2812-2612-272021-01-062021-01-062021-01-0112-062021-01-0412-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2210-0412-0612-2812-2112-2712-2812-1012-3112-1310-1812-3012-2812-2712-252021-01-262021-01-0212-2912-292021-01-0312-2312-2112-3112-2912-2211-0207-2112-3012-2512-2512-2112-2912-2112-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0910-0412-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-2712-2211-0712-2812-2711-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2512-292021-01-0212-2612-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-1912-2212-2312-2712-0611-1312-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-2012-1310-0411-0212-0710-0412-2212-2312-2212-2712-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-2512-3112-2112-3012-2611-02
Peak daily increment 92 102 61 88 97 40 77 73 119 106 170 110 171 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 128 110 108 233 252 426 1250 75 157 65 95 58 157 50 484 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 320 107 508 94 186 62 122 123 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 107 303 40 90 268 52 197 249 283 59 91 71 65 266 20 243 5 35 53 94 285 34 553 288 38 181 598 151 69 189 72 58 246 27 170 248 187 118 322 119 87 536 308 60 52 71 76 160 106 25 51 235 204 102 163 147 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 80 69 90 73 94 119 150 125 54 38 122 82 597 92 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 219 59 201 57 401 172 103 338 101 106 136 120 476 101 159 52 76 442 57 116 452 143 83 74 134 18 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 311 428 107 1449 284 104 456 71 230 102 727 30 200 90 36 368 92 419 25 46 106 298 37 62 153 186 27 213 302 361 79 62 66 23 105 63 122 85 723 190 212 192 23 50 137 105 51 394 105 58 122 107 41 55 277 158 121 224 90 68 123 3 125 44 108 58 154 120 207 43 102 174 623 105 81 176 151 286 52 188 39 132 139 56 96 198 80 85 59 174 36 25 162 450 42 83 82 403 65 131 573 25 209 244 167 97 42 111 102 69 181 27 42 86 72 448 95 79 108 80 66 102 115 247 293 450 131 156 219 94 55 112 26 189 138 197 66 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 123 56 109 46 141 352 90 44 138 122 360 139 51 101 14 559 151 90 110 120 84 250 329 449 390 227 259 138 117 160 65 154 87 29 78 166 42 65 67 115 217 217 265 83 148 430 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 594
Days since peak 135 136 136 137 136 137 48 136 295 48 142 136 155 142 140 135 140 211 136 140 130 121 133 142 137 141 134 136 136 134 156 125 129 180 131 142 200 141 136 136 149 157 135 133 138 142 137 141 133 133 136 156 196 142 136 137 155 157 136 155 142 141 142 196 133 141 135 138 141 142 129 142 142 133 220 128 137 127 134 137 136 134 139 191 136 135 136 136 142 138 142 142 135 130 76 142 210 136 156 137 141 220 136 295 139 134 220 139 142 184 157 137 295 193 136 133 135 142 137 141 138 142 141 126 227 136 140 136 141 135 138 145 138 128 137 137 220 142 135 142 142 136 142 127 141 136 135 142 142 142 135 136 135 142 140 150 136 150 134 141 134 135 135 133 141 137 142 131 142 135 142 136 141 135 135 138 192 142 197 136 134 126 191 129 142 136 136 191 142 137 39 141 142 132 134 130 141 192 125 155 142 142 142 141 142 48 132 295 141 136 157 295 55 135 134 129 190 136 157 136 295 155 136 198 137 142 220 192 142 134 189 142 128 136 142 131 134 134 191 135 295 136 135 137 136 126 126 131 157 128 134 142 132 127 141 220 157 135 142 136 135 153 132 150 206 133 135 136 138 106 130 134 134 129 140 142 132 134 141 191 295 133 138 138 142 134 142 142 135 137 138 128 141 184 220 142 141 143 129 135 136 141 142 149 135 137 142 138 138 197 141 186 135 136 192 142 140 141 136 142 156 161 138 134 130 137 133 128 136 142 137 142 144 141 140 136 157 180 142 136 141 137 155 142 192 136 136 148 138 191 142 141 142 136 137 143 150 220 191 156 220 141 140 141 136 134 141 141 135 136 141 136 131 135 138 132 142 133 137 191
Last total 7258 5894 2921 5057 8597 3164 8516 5960 1452 15657 8327 9680 9820 11820 3876 23685 30640 19717 4285 17692 8265 8224 8292 13831 22678 22466 101764 7122 18477 9306 6171 5980 27382 5023 25432 7127 49981 10850 6810 28817 6920 12609 14647 30947 6060 24467 6264 9122 7193 10003 17367 13460 14698 5822 14203 7117 10170 26299 8231 10802 8369 7477 16122 1784 12585 12756 3780 9166 21059 21821 6178 4946 4300 8013 17273 2509 11396 295 3882 3163 5898 14305 2586 38251 23996 2848 7998 31097 8631 7585 10393 4309 4337 20236 2996 12490 24004 11943 7879 26955 4210 6977 31439 6433 3058 4226 5245 4902 8245 6478 2868 4859 4891 18435 9682 8960 6647 5896 2996 7406 29887 12474 5271 7334 5011 6803 5280 5639 5993 11647 9637 8091 3104 4810 13833 8237 42422 6409 3889 10308 5556 22536 7435 3418 21775 12000 4226 13107 5193 20912 7981 7727 21009 4392 8949 6236 7104 26962 7114 8263 5055 3635 26817 6205 5719 25188 7926 8041 2999 7732 2306 6831 15093 9127 6137 7748 20023 12344 34742 17419 24370 9536 63596 37016 4941 21791 6608 6953 7543 48605 20791 12740 3768 2806 53678 8332 26192 2740 3488 6738 16341 2267 3341 6861 12613 7769 12610 3248 20224 4419 4192 1746 11656 6223 7362 23895 8486 35724 11406 11636 6405 2002 6075 8726 6426 5584 22441 9693 3053 10144 12624 4381 6119 18340 17613 7471 30957 8642 4988 23276 72 9590 3484 9733 4621 15806 9296 14334 4199 13990 11003 33066 9364 6245 9288 10706 21373 4608 10946 2648 21539 6437 6136 4898 21575 6699 5531 6893 7773 1680 1899 23439 34397 5607 2897 5453 24173 5180 6928 44320 235 15144 15628 14743 6006 4261 4845 5855 7368 15307 1699 5448 7601 4529 19044 5601 4771 5926 8174 5488 8695 11410 14957 14826 22551 7458 7875 17123 8589 5386 6060 3451 21177 16025 20265 5220 3804 22177 5497 16003 13433 17620 11582 18548 5436 5575 3023 11052 10026 5434 2937 11513 6342 17941 8060 4258 6456 1008 29035 16764 5726 4899 7460 5221 26107 25908 25025 22342 17935 7202 8027 5884 7944 5062 8259 6457 1187 4459 8963 4723 8199 4120 6624 14366 29325 17424 4963 8557 24350 6897 8295 24919 6128 5348 11515 6450 10787 6703 5590 12338
Last daily increment 0 4 1 0 2 0 6 1 0 3 2 4 2 6 1 1 5 16 0 7 3 4 3 28 17 5 17 2 24 10 2 0 146 4 4 1 32 4 2 11 2 3 9 8 5 8 0 1 7 4 18 2 19 2 2 2 11 14 2 1 3 7 20 0 2 3 3 4 15 9 1 2 0 7 20 0 2 1 0 0 5 6 2 13 17 0 2 13 4 2 1 1 1 6 0 29 15 2 0 12 0 4 10 2 3 1 16 1 1 2 2 2 19 14 1 5 0 3 0 5 4 6 1 7 1 5 3 1 5 20 1 2 2 0 5 2 111 1 3 3 2 9 5 0 5 4 1 9 5 5 1 4 7 2 1 1 1 3 8 2 7 2 11 5 2 25 6 7 0 5 0 4 2 6 5 5 9 5 56 3 6 5 52 12 1 15 3 7 6 9 6 0 4 2 43 3 4 2 0 1 4 1 2 1 9 1 5 1 11 1 1 10 4 4 4 15 1 6 10 18 5 3 2 5 3 3 17 10 0 2 11 2 4 1 10 3 19 1 1 2 0 2 2 3 10 9 5 5 3 9 4 5 3 3 1 8 1 1 2 0 13 0 3 1 13 2 0 4 1 1 0 6 15 4 0 1 13 6 1 44 0 4 5 8 0 2 1 6 2 7 4 6 3 1 23 1 3 0 4 3 0 4 12 9 3 4 2 7 1 1 1 2 24 5 11 2 4 2 1 7 5 4 5 13 0 3 1 5 2 2 0 2 2 4 2 2 3 0 3 14 1 1 0 3 18 4 7 8 3 1 10 2 0 1 2 1 1 0 2 0 11 4 3 8 21 10 0 2 4 5 4 3 5 4 2 2 1 3 0 5
Last week 38 28 8 2 6 11 47 11 0 45 25 29 15 30 9 30 66 82 5 24 15 18 25 190 75 26 164 10 150 53 4 6 714 26 40 17 190 17 20 77 5 11 53 62 17 45 6 7 28 43 46 10 60 17 31 9 19 65 6 16 9 59 68 5 21 17 9 17 64 44 13 13 14 42 94 15 30 1 5 8 26 36 7 70 75 5 20 94 22 17 6 14 1 38 1 134 100 26 4 71 6 19 102 24 14 13 36 10 10 26 7 20 62 77 21 21 2 25 3 17 44 14 12 70 5 29 12 19 37 106 6 13 5 8 20 26 505 5 11 8 19 56 13 9 28 21 8 23 24 39 8 29 64 30 12 8 14 22 30 16 35 15 106 22 8 142 29 30 11 20 1 14 31 34 21 34 56 34 261 20 47 37 324 139 9 51 6 31 18 47 57 12 6 8 224 24 18 25 8 4 29 6 16 8 57 19 51 35 55 5 5 51 10 14 32 116 14 32 42 77 24 7 16 23 10 16 102 74 7 14 54 8 11 34 45 21 92 20 11 35 0 11 5 34 39 50 42 24 6 40 27 58 18 10 8 32 9 8 28 7 81 5 14 7 73 29 3 18 23 8 1 52 70 11 1 21 89 39 6 260 0 29 37 26 14 22 13 19 17 28 16 44 15 13 119 13 26 10 22 12 6 26 67 26 34 14 17 34 17 7 11 22 89 36 55 10 22 37 11 20 16 19 35 66 6 11 9 23 19 14 2 30 15 19 4 11 6 3 49 59 6 10 8 20 129 33 36 48 23 13 44 11 8 28 9 28 6 6 18 9 39 7 39 42 111 59 7 13 27 10 23 38 18 12 10 9 20 20 10 30
Previous peak date07-2107-21 -- --10-2707-2112-2110-07 --12-21 --10-21 --10-25 -- -- -- --10-20 -- --10-2611-02 --10-07 --11-02 --10-1310-13 --10-2510-15 --11-02 --05-0310-26 -- -- -- --10-1611-02 -- -- -- --10-1209-2710-2709-02 -- --10-01 -- -- --10-25 -- --10-10 -- --11-02 -- --10-2710-18 --10-20 -- --10-1307-2107-2110-14 -- -- -- --10-29 --04-2010-3110-31 --10-2910-17 -- -- --10-2110-2712-2810-01 --10-12 -- --07-2107-21 -- -- --11-0107-2110-27 -- --07-2110-27 -- -- --10-30 --10-20 --10-06 -- -- --10-18 --07-21 -- -- --07-21 -- -- --10-1510-2910-1107-21 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-2810-2710-14 --10-12 --10-2710-30 -- -- --10-29 -- --10-1710-2707-21 --11-01 -- -- --10-1307-21 --06-11 -- -- -- -- -- --10-13 --09-29 --10-0804-1411-02 -- --10-31 --10-1209-2812-27 -- -- --11-0210-25 -- -- -- --10-15 -- -- --10-1212-2111-03 --09-30 -- -- --12-07 -- --11-02 -- -- --09-24 -- --10-14 -- -- --07-21 -- --10-31 -- --11-0308-02 -- --11-0211-01 --10-22 -- -- -- --07-21 --11-0211-02 --11-02 -- --11-0310-26 --07-21 --10-1110-10 --10-19 --10-11 -- -- -- --10-13 -- -- --11-0211-0210-3107-21 --09-3010-25 -- -- --10-28 -- -- --07-21 -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- --07-21 -- -- --10-13 --10-24 -- -- -- -- --10-1710-0810-29 -- --07-2110-1810-12 -- -- --10-0610-31 -- -- -- --10-1811-04 -- --10-2910-1110-18 -- -- -- -- --10-26 -- -- --10-17 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-22 -- --10-22 -- -- -- -- --07-21 -- --07-21 --10-15 --10-1610-24 -- --09-3010-3010-11 --11-03 --10-1910-28 --10-17 -- --
Previous peak daily increment 616 365 80 295 134 40 260 61 40 31 75 271 262 1226 166 98 54 234 363 55 19 62 1197 57 72 160 31 54 39 60 294 35 120 54 62 1272 83 35 57 68 129 18 69 22 25 164 25 206 59 226 710 39 383 25 191 31 24 30 29 56 475 687 43 127 72 1766 70 33 54 60 69 57 38 22 44 144 49 59 248 45 46 153 81 75 479 56 71 480 273 2237 61 44 109 105 87 25 191 2429 91 53 1007 82 56 68 1343 64 257 230 139 354 150 88 41 459 41 46 194 65 67 406 233 81 152 189 33 104 226 66 876 66 75 20 118 77 149 184 120 129 18 172 46 89 27 17 45 144 135 23 307 376 24 319 68 141 22 25 38 54 32 67
Low between peaks 0 -1 28 0 8 18 13 26 -44 8 37 20 48 303 55 29 19 62 23 27 -19 21 68 19 34 54 12 23 7 26 28 -43 -38 17 31 -11 -4 -18 12 1 39 -9 28 -31 9 53 8 34 -47 -2 -3 -13 -3 -32 -1 10 -10 8 -67 19 -4 -5 -9 24 23 -7 22 -40 23 15 -120 -7 19 -66 -54 -1 15 21 -2 0 18 21 23 6 120 21 21 58 7 114 21 -25 39 6 35 8 7 18 23 -9 -7 35 16 7 50 28 58 1 20 37 38 22 13 -2 -20 -118 62 22 16 36 92 19 -4 26 14 31 -2 24 -7 28 24 -77 30 38 -1 43 43 58 -23 32 15 31 11 7 6 -31 -27 -71 -2 -2 -25 77 -103 19 -17 -8 8 27 12 -4

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-13 to 2021-05-19

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyThanetThree RiversThurrockTorbayTorfaenTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-05-12 7258 5894 2921 8597 3164 8516 5960 15657 8327 9680 9820 11820 3876 23685 30640 19717 17692 8265 8224 8292 13831 22678 22466 101764 7122 18477 9306 5980 27382 5023 25432 7127 49981 10850 6810 28817 12609 14647 30947 6060 24467 6264 9122 7193 10003 17367 13460 14698 5822 14203 7117 10170 26299 8231 10802 8369 7477 16122 12585 12756 3780 9166 21059 21821 6178 4946 4300 8013 17273 2509 11396 3163 5898 14305 2586 38251 23996 7998 31097 8631 7585 10393 4309 20236 12490 24004 11943 26955 4210 6977 31439 6433 3058 4226 5245 4902 8245 6478 2868 4859 4891 18435 9682 8960 5896 7406 29887 12474 5271 7334 6803 5280 5639 5993 11647 9637 8091 4810 13833 8237 42422 3889 10308 5556 22536 7435 3418 21775 12000 4226 13107 5193 20912 7981 7727 21009 4392 8949 6236 7104 26962 7114 8263 5055 3635 26817 6205 5719 25188 7926 8041 2999 7732 6831 15093 9127 6137 7748 20023 12344 34742 17419 24370 9536 63596 37016 4941 21791 6608 6953 7543 48605 20791 12740 3768 2806 53678 8332 26192 2740 3488 16341 2267 3341 6861 12613 7769 12610 3248 20224 1746 11656 6223 7362 23895 8486 35724 11406 11636 6405 2002 6075 8726 6426 5584 22441 9693 3053 10144 12624 4381 6119 18340 17613 7471 30957 8642 4988 23276 9590 9733 4621 15806 9296 14334 4199 13990 11003 33066 9364 6245 9288 10706 21373 4608 10946 2648 21539 6136 4898 21575 6699 6893 7773 1680 23439 34397 5607 5453 24173 5180 6928 44320 15144 15628 14743 6006 4261 4845 5855 7368 15307 1699 5448 7601 4529 19044 5601 4771 5926 8174 5488 8695 11410 14957 14826 22551 7458 7875 17123 8589 5386 6060 3451 21177 16025 20265 5220 3804 22177 5497 16003 13433 17620 11582 18548 5436 5575 3023 11052 10026 5434 11513 6342 17941 4258 6456 29035 16764 5726 4899 7460 5221 26107 25908 25025 22342 17935 7202 8027 5884 7944 5062 8259 6457 1187 4459 8963 4723 8199 4120 6624 14366 29325 17424 4963 8557 24350 6897 8295 24919 6128 5348 11515 6450 10787 6703 5590 12338
2021-05-13 7262 5896 2922 8598 3166 8524 5960 15660 8332 9680 9822 11830 3877 23690 30650 19750 17690 8268 8231 8294 13870 22690 22470 101800 7125 18510 9314 5981 27440 5025 25440 7130 50030 10850 6813 28830 12610 14650 30950 6060 24470 6265 9123 7193 10000 17370 13470 14710 5823 14210 7119 10170 26310 8232 10800 8370 7485 16130 12590 12760 3781 9169 21070 21830 6180 4951 4302 8014 17290 2511 11400 3164 5903 14310 2587 38280 24010 8001 31110 8635 7592 10400 4311 20250 12510 24060 11950 26960 4212 6982 31460 6439 3060 4228 5252 4907 8247 6482 2870 4861 4904 18450 9685 8976 5896 7409 29890 12480 5272 7344 6811 5282 5647 5999 11670 9638 8091 4811 13840 8237 42510 3891 10310 5558 22540 7438 3419 21780 12000 4228 13110 5197 20920 7984 7731 21020 4395 8951 6240 7106 26970 7121 8266 5055 3638 26830 6208 5722 25190 7929 8049 3002 7740 6833 15100 9133 6146 7759 20030 12350 34760 17420 24380 9544 63650 37040 4942 21800 6609 6954 7547 48620 20800 12750 3770 2807 53700 8341 26200 2741 3492 16350 2268 3343 6865 12620 7773 12620 3251 20230 1756 11660 6227 7362 23920 8486 35730 11410 11650 6410 2003 6080 8730 6433 5587 22460 9706 3057 10150 12640 4383 6121 18360 17620 7475 30980 8656 4990 23300 9608 9737 4626 15830 9306 14340 4200 14000 11010 33070 9367 6247 9294 10710 21380 4609 10950 2650 21550 6138 4900 21590 6705 6895 7776 1681 23460 34410 5609 5462 24180 5185 6929 44340 15160 15640 14750 6009 4265 4847 5857 7371 15320 1702 5449 7605 4531 19040 5604 4775 5928 8177 5491 8701 11410 14970 14830 22560 7461 7877 17120 8592 5392 6062 3454 21190 16030 20280 5224 3807 22180 5498 16010 13440 17630 11590 18550 5440 5577 3025 11060 10030 5439 11520 6345 17940 4260 6457 29040 16790 5732 4901 7461 5224 26150 25930 25030 22360 17950 7205 8032 5891 7945 5066 8264 6464 1188 4462 8963 4726 8205 4122 6633 14370 29350 17440 4965 8561 24360 6899 8299 24930 6130 5348 11520 6451 10790 6706 5590 12340
2021-05-14 7271 5900 2924 8600 3168 8530 5960 15670 8338 9680 9824 11830 3878 23700 30660 19780 17690 8273 8237 8298 13900 22700 22480 101800 7131 18530 9321 5985 27530 5027 25450 7133 50080 10850 6814 28850 12610 14650 30970 6062 24480 6268 9124 7194 10000 17370 13470 14710 5828 14220 7121 10180 26310 8233 10810 8370 7486 16130 12600 12770 3782 9173 21080 21830 6181 4954 4306 8017 17320 2513 11400 3164 5906 14320 2590 38300 24020 8002 31110 8643 7598 10400 4314 20250 12520 24100 11960 26960 4221 6989 31480 6454 3062 4230 5258 4910 8251 6485 2871 4863 4909 18460 9690 8986 5899 7414 29900 12480 5274 7358 6819 5283 5654 6008 11680 9641 8091 4812 13850 8238 42590 3893 10320 5561 22550 7444 3423 21790 12010 4230 13120 5197 20920 7988 7734 21040 4395 8957 6242 7110 26970 7133 8266 5057 3643 26840 6211 5725 25200 7932 8054 3006 7743 6835 15100 9141 6151 7764 20050 12350 34800 17420 24380 9546 63700 37060 4942 21800 6611 6958 7551 48620 20820 12750 3772 2808 53720 8345 26200 2741 3494 16350 2272 3345 6867 12640 7781 12620 3251 20230 1764 11660 6229 7363 23930 8488 35740 11420 11650 6414 2006 6081 8733 6436 5592 22480 9728 3059 10160 12640 4383 6123 18370 17630 7478 30990 8665 4991 23310 9616 9738 4630 15840 9311 14340 4201 14010 11020 33090 9369 6250 9296 10720 21380 4610 10960 2652 21560 6139 4901 21610 6713 6896 7776 1683 23480 34420 5613 5467 24180 5196 6931 44380 15170 15660 14750 6013 4272 4849 5861 7373 15320 1702 5452 7611 4532 19060 5610 4775 5932 8179 5494 8705 11420 14980 14830 22570 7464 7878 17130 8595 5394 6066 3454 21190 16040 20290 5227 3807 22190 5499 16020 13440 17630 11600 18560 5442 5579 3027 11070 10030 5443 11520 6349 17950 4261 6458 29060 16800 5734 4903 7462 5229 26180 25940 25040 22360 17950 7211 8032 5897 7951 5072 8267 6468 1188 4471 8966 4732 8213 4123 6635 14390 29370 17440 4968 8572 24370 6901 8304 24940 6131 5350 11530 6452 10800 6706 5590 12350
2021-05-15 7278 5907 2925 8602 3170 8537 5961 15670 8340 9680 9827 11840 3879 23710 30670 19790 17700 8277 8240 8301 13940 22710 22480 101900 7136 18550 9328 5988 27600 5029 25460 7135 50110 10860 6817 28860 12610 14660 30980 6062 24490 6269 9126 7194 10000 17380 13470 14720 5832 14230 7123 10180 26310 8234 10810 8371 7489 16140 12600 12770 3782 9177 21080 21830 6183 4956 4309 8023 17350 2516 11400 3165 5910 14330 2591 38320 24030 8004 31120 8649 7601 10400 4317 20260 12530 24130 11960 26970 4227 6994 31490 6465 3063 4232 5264 4912 8253 6488 2873 4865 4917 18470 9691 8991 5899 7419 29910 12480 5276 7369 6827 5284 5657 6015 11690 9643 8093 4813 13850 8239 42670 3894 10320 5562 22550 7448 3426 21800 12010 4232 13130 5199 20930 7990 7738 21050 4395 8961 6244 7113 26980 7143 8267 5058 3647 26850 6214 5726 25210 7933 8057 3010 7746 6836 15110 9148 6154 7770 20060 12360 34830 17430 24390 9548 63740 37080 4943 21800 6612 6960 7555 48630 20840 12750 3774 2809 53750 8348 26210 2741 3496 16360 2275 3347 6868 12650 7787 12620 3251 20240 1773 11660 6230 7364 23950 8489 35740 11420 11650 6419 2008 6084 8736 6437 5596 22500 9746 3059 10160 12650 4385 6125 18370 17630 7481 31010 8669 4993 23320 9619 9740 4635 15850 9313 14350 4202 14010 11020 33100 9372 6252 9297 10730 21380 4611 10960 2654 21570 6141 4902 21620 6720 6897 7776 1685 23480 34430 5616 5471 24180 5204 6932 44410 15180 15670 14760 6014 4278 4850 5864 7376 15330 1704 5456 7615 4534 19070 5614 4776 5935 8182 5495 8707 11420 14990 14830 22580 7467 7879 17130 8598 5396 6069 3455 21200 16050 20310 5228 3807 22190 5499 16020 13440 17640 11620 18560 5443 5582 3029 11070 10030 5445 11520 6352 17950 4261 6458 29070 16810 5736 4904 7463 5233 26200 25940 25040 22370 17960 7217 8032 5899 7955 5077 8270 6471 1189 4477 8967 4736 8222 4125 6637 14400 29390 17450 4970 8579 24370 6903 8309 24940 6132 5351 11530 6453 10800 6707 5591 12360
2021-05-16 7284 5912 2927 8603 3172 8544 5961 15680 8344 9684 9830 11840 3880 23710 30670 19810 17700 8280 8243 8308 13970 22720 22490 101900 7140 18570 9335 5990 27700 5033 25460 7139 50140 10860 6820 28870 12610 14660 30990 6063 24490 6271 9127 7195 10000 17380 13470 14730 5834 14230 7124 10180 26310 8235 10810 8371 7495 16140 12610 12770 3783 9180 21090 21840 6184 4960 4311 8029 17370 2519 11410 3166 5914 14330 2593 38330 24040 8007 31120 8655 7606 10410 4319 20270 12550 24160 11970 26980 4232 6999 31500 6475 3065 4234 5269 4914 8256 6492 2874 4869 4926 18480 9695 8997 5901 7422 29910 12480 5277 7378 6835 5286 5662 6021 11710 9645 8096 4814 13850 8242 42740 3895 10330 5566 22560 7452 3428 21810 12010 4234 13130 5202 20940 7993 7742 21060 4395 8964 6246 7115 26980 7152 8271 5061 3651 26860 6216 5728 25230 7939 8060 3013 7747 6838 15110 9155 6155 7777 20080 12360 34860 17430 24400 9552 63790 37090 4945 21810 6613 6964 7558 48630 20850 12760 3777 2811 53800 8355 26210 2741 3496 16370 2277 3349 6871 12660 7792 12630 3251 20240 1783 11670 6234 7368 23960 8490 35750 11420 11660 6425 2010 6089 8739 6440 5599 22520 9761 3061 10160 12660 4386 6128 18380 17640 7484 31030 8674 4995 23320 9623 9743 4640 15860 9320 14350 4203 14020 11030 33100 9375 6254 9300 10740 21390 4612 10970 2656 21580 6143 4903 21640 6726 6899 7776 1687 23490 34440 5618 5474 24200 5211 6932 44440 15180 15670 14760 6017 4282 4852 5866 7378 15330 1706 5464 7619 4535 19090 5618 4779 5938 8185 5499 8710 11420 14990 14830 22590 7469 7881 17130 8601 5398 6071 3458 21200 16060 20320 5229 3809 22200 5501 16030 13440 17640 11620 18570 5445 5584 3031 11080 10040 5448 11530 6355 17960 4262 6459 29080 16830 5737 4906 7464 5236 26230 25950 25050 22380 17960 7222 8035 5904 7958 5081 8270 6475 1190 4481 8970 4739 8231 4126 6646 14410 29410 17460 4972 8584 24370 6905 8313 24950 6134 5353 11530 6455 10810 6709 5591 12370
2021-05-17 7291 5918 2928 8604 3174 8551 5962 15680 8348 9688 9833 11850 3881 23720 30680 19820 17700 8283 8248 8314 14000 22730 22490 101900 7144 18600 9342 5992 27790 5040 25470 7143 50170 10860 6826 28890 12610 14670 31020 6068 24500 6272 9128 7198 10010 17390 13470 14740 5836 14240 7125 10180 26320 8236 10810 8372 7501 16150 12610 12780 3784 9184 21100 21840 6186 4962 4314 8038 17390 2521 11410 3166 5921 14340 2595 38350 24060 8009 31130 8659 7608 10410 4322 20270 12560 24190 11970 26990 4237 7004 31520 6484 3067 4236 5275 4916 8258 6496 2876 4872 4935 18500 9699 9002 5907 7425 29920 12480 5278 7387 6842 5287 5664 6027 11720 9646 8096 4815 13850 8246 42820 3898 10330 5568 22570 7455 3430 21820 12010 4236 13140 5204 20940 7995 7747 21070 4397 8966 6248 7118 26990 7160 8275 5067 3655 26880 6219 5729 25250 7945 8069 3015 7752 6840 15120 9161 6160 7786 20090 12360 34900 17430 24400 9562 63870 37120 4945 21810 6614 6970 7562 48640 20870 12760 3779 2812 53870 8361 26220 2741 3497 16370 2279 3351 6874 12670 7796 12630 3253 20250 1792 11670 6236 7374 23980 8494 35750 11430 11670 6431 2012 6095 8743 6442 5602 22540 9776 3064 10170 12670 4387 6130 18390 17640 7488 31050 8681 4996 23330 9628 9746 4645 15870 9328 14360 4204 14030 11030 33110 9377 6256 9303 10740 21390 4613 10980 2658 21590 6145 4904 21650 6732 6900 7777 1688 23510 34450 5620 5479 24220 5218 6933 44490 15190 15680 14770 6019 4287 4854 5869 7381 15340 1709 5471 7623 4537 19110 5622 4782 5940 8188 5501 8711 11430 15010 14840 22590 7472 7883 17140 8604 5402 6073 3460 21210 16060 20330 5231 3811 22210 5502 16030 13440 17640 11630 18580 5447 5586 3032 11080 10040 5452 11530 6357 17960 4264 6459 29100 16840 5738 4908 7466 5240 26250 25960 25050 22390 17970 7227 8039 5908 7960 5086 8273 6482 1191 4485 8972 4742 8240 4127 6656 14420 29430 17480 4974 8590 24380 6907 8317 24960 6136 5354 11530 6456 10810 6712 5591 12380
2021-05-18 7300 5923 2929 8605 3176 8559 5962 15690 8352 9694 9834 11850 3883 23720 30690 19840 17710 8286 8252 8323 14030 22740 22500 102000 7147 18630 9350 5994 27890 5044 25480 7145 50200 10860 6828 28900 12620 14680 31040 6069 24500 6273 9129 7204 10010 17390 13470 14750 5837 14240 7126 10190 26320 8237 10820 8373 7507 16160 12620 12780 3785 9187 21110 21850 6187 4964 4316 8043 17410 2524 11410 3167 5923 14340 2596 38360 24070 8012 31140 8664 7611 10410 4324 20280 12580 24210 11980 27000 4242 7009 31540 6492 3068 4238 5281 4917 8260 6500 2877 4875 4945 18510 9703 9004 5911 7428 29930 12480 5279 7395 6849 5291 5666 6033 11740 9648 8098 4816 13860 8250 42900 3900 10330 5570 22570 7457 3431 21820 12020 4238 13140 5208 20950 7997 7753 21080 4400 8968 6248 7121 26990 7167 8276 5074 3660 26890 6222 5730 25270 7949 8073 3018 7756 6842 15120 9167 6163 7792 20100 12370 34940 17430 24410 9567 63940 37140 4948 21820 6615 6978 7565 48650 20880 12760 3781 2813 53920 8364 26220 2741 3499 16380 2280 3353 6875 12680 7800 12640 3256 20260 1802 11670 6237 7381 24000 8497 35760 11440 11680 6438 2013 6095 8746 6444 5605 22560 9789 3065 10170 12680 4389 6130 18400 17650 7491 31080 8684 4998 23340 9631 9749 4650 15880 9337 14360 4206 14040 11040 33120 9380 6257 9306 10750 21390 4614 10980 2661 21600 6146 4905 21660 6737 6903 7779 1690 23520 34460 5622 5483 24230 5224 6934 44520 15190 15680 14770 6020 4291 4855 5871 7383 15340 1711 5479 7627 4538 19130 5626 4785 5942 8191 5501 8711 11430 15010 14840 22600 7474 7885 17140 8607 5402 6075 3464 21220 16070 20340 5233 3813 22210 5503 16030 13450 17650 11640 18590 5448 5588 3034 11090 10040 5454 11530 6360 17960 4267 6460 29110 16840 5739 4909 7467 5243 26270 25970 25060 22400 17970 7233 8043 5910 7962 5091 8274 6489 1192 4489 8975 4744 8248 4129 6665 14430 29450 17490 4976 8594 24380 6909 8320 24960 6138 5356 11540 6457 10820 6714 5592 12390
2021-05-19 7305 5930 2931 8606 3178 8566 5962 15690 8355 9698 9836 11860 3884 23730 30700 19850 17710 8289 8256 8329 14060 22760 22500 102000 7149 18650 9357 5995 28020 5048 25490 7147 50240 10860 6830 28910 12620 14690 31060 6073 24510 6274 9130 7209 10010 17410 13480 14770 5838 14250 7128 10190 26330 8238 10820 8374 7515 16170 12620 12790 3787 9190 21120 21850 6189 4967 4318 8049 17430 2527 11410 3168 5928 14350 2597 38380 24080 8014 31150 8668 7613 10410 4326 20280 12600 24230 11980 27010 4246 7013 31560 6500 3070 4240 5288 4919 8262 6504 2879 4877 4955 18520 9705 9010 5914 7431 29930 12490 5281 7403 6857 5293 5668 6038 11760 9649 8100 4818 13860 8252 42980 3902 10330 5572 22580 7460 3432 21830 12020 4239 13150 5211 20950 7999 7759 21090 4403 8970 6249 7123 26990 7174 8278 5081 3664 26900 6225 5732 25290 7954 8079 3020 7761 6844 15130 9172 6167 7797 20110 12370 34990 17430 24420 9572 64010 37160 4950 21830 6617 6986 7569 48660 20890 12760 3783 2814 53980 8367 26230 2741 3501 16380 2282 3355 6877 12690 7804 12640 3259 20260 1811 11670 6241 7385 24020 8499 35760 11440 11680 6444 2015 6096 8750 6447 5608 22590 9802 3065 10170 12690 4390 6133 18400 17660 7495 31100 8687 4999 23350 9634 9753 4655 15890 9344 14360 4207 14050 11040 33130 9382 6259 9308 10760 21390 4615 10980 2663 21610 6148 4906 21680 6742 6905 7782 1692 23530 34480 5624 5487 24240 5229 6934 44570 15200 15690 14780 6022 4295 4857 5873 7386 15350 1714 5485 7631 4540 19160 5630 4789 5945 8194 5504 8712 11430 15020 14840 22610 7476 7887 17140 8610 5404 6077 3467 21230 16080 20350 5236 3815 22220 5504 16040 13450 17650 11650 18600 5449 5589 3035 11090 10050 5457 11540 6363 17970 4270 6461 29110 16860 5742 4911 7468 5246 26300 25970 25070 22410 17980 7239 8048 5912 7964 5095 8276 6491 1194 4492 8977 4746 8257 4130 6670 14440 29470 17500 4978 8598 24390 6910 8324 24970 6140 5359 11540 6458 10820 6717 5592 12400

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-13 to 2021-05-19

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyThanetThree RiversThurrockTorbayTorfaenTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-05-12 7258 5894 2921 8597 3164 8516 5960 15657 8327 9680 9820 11820 3876 23685 30640 19717 17692 8265 8224 8292 13831 22678 22466 101764 7122 18477 9306 5980 27382 5023 25432 7127 49981 10850 6810 28817 12609 14647 30947 6060 24467 6264 9122 7193 10003 17367 13460 14698 5822 14203 7117 10170 26299 8231 10802 8369 7477 16122 12585 12756 3780 9166 21059 21821 6178 4946 4300 8013 17273 2509 11396 3163 5898 14305 2586 38251 23996 7998 31097 8631 7585 10393 4309 20236 12490 24004 11943 26955 4210 6977 31439 6433 3058 4226 5245 4902 8245 6478 2868 4859 4891 18435 9682 8960 5896 7406 29887 12474 5271 7334 6803 5280 5639 5993 11647 9637 8091 4810 13833 8237 42422 3889 10308 5556 22536 7435 3418 21775 12000 4226 13107 5193 20912 7981 7727 21009 4392 8949 6236 7104 26962 7114 8263 5055 3635 26817 6205 5719 25188 7926 8041 2999 7732 6831 15093 9127 6137 7748 20023 12344 34742 17419 24370 9536 63596 37016 4941 21791 6608 6953 7543 48605 20791 12740 3768 2806 53678 8332 26192 2740 3488 16341 2267 3341 6861 12613 7769 12610 3248 20224 1746 11656 6223 7362 23895 8486 35724 11406 11636 6405 2002 6075 8726 6426 5584 22441 9693 3053 10144 12624 4381 6119 18340 17613 7471 30957 8642 4988 23276 9590 9733 4621 15806 9296 14334 4199 13990 11003 33066 9364 6245 9288 10706 21373 4608 10946 2648 21539 6136 4898 21575 6699 6893 7773 1680 23439 34397 5607 5453 24173 5180 6928 44320 15144 15628 14743 6006 4261 4845 5855 7368 15307 1699 5448 7601 4529 19044 5601 4771 5926 8174 5488 8695 11410 14957 14826 22551 7458 7875 17123 8589 5386 6060 3451 21177 16025 20265 5220 3804 22177 5497 16003 13433 17620 11582 18548 5436 5575 3023 11052 10026 5434 11513 6342 17941 4258 6456 29035 16764 5726 4899 7460 5221 26107 25908 25025 22342 17935 7202 8027 5884 7944 5062 8259 6457 1187 4459 8963 4723 8199 4120 6624 14366 29325 17424 4963 8557 24350 6897 8295 24919 6128 5348 11515 6450 10787 6703 5590 12338
2021-05-13 7262 5900 2922 8597 3166 8524 5961 15660 8330 9683 9822 11830 3877 23690 30650 19740 17700 8268 8227 8294 13860 22690 22470 101800 7125 18500 9314 5981 27500 5026 25440 7129 50020 10850 6813 28830 12610 14650 30960 6062 24470 6265 9123 7198 10010 17380 13460 14710 5826 14210 7119 10170 26310 8232 10800 8370 7485 16130 12590 12760 3783 9169 21070 21830 6180 4949 4301 8017 17290 2512 11400 3164 5902 14310 2587 38260 24010 8000 31110 8635 7587 10400 4311 20250 12510 24020 11950 26960 4213 6982 31460 6441 3060 4227 5254 4904 8247 6482 2870 4861 4902 18450 9684 8965 5899 7410 29890 12480 5272 7351 6810 5282 5644 5998 11670 9638 8092 4812 13840 8239 42520 3890 10310 5558 22540 7438 3419 21780 12000 4228 13110 5197 20920 7983 7731 21020 4396 8951 6237 7106 26970 7118 8265 5059 3639 26830 6208 5721 25210 7930 8046 3001 7738 6834 15100 9132 6142 7753 20030 12350 34780 17420 24380 9543 63660 37040 4942 21800 6610 6959 7546 48620 20800 12740 3769 2808 53720 8337 26200 2742 3490 16350 2268 3343 6863 12620 7772 12620 3253 20230 1755 11660 6225 7366 23910 8488 35730 11410 11650 6412 2004 6078 8730 6429 5587 22460 9707 3056 10150 12630 4383 6121 18350 17620 7475 30980 8646 4990 23280 9597 9736 4628 15820 9304 14340 4201 14000 11010 33070 9367 6247 9291 10710 21380 4609 10950 2649 21550 6138 4900 21590 6704 6896 7776 1681 23450 34410 5609 5455 24190 5187 6930 44360 15150 15630 14750 6008 4265 4846 5857 7371 15310 1702 5453 7606 4530 19060 5603 4775 5928 8177 5489 8695 11410 14970 14830 22560 7459 7878 17130 8591 5388 6062 3455 21190 16030 20270 5222 3808 22180 5499 16010 13440 17620 11590 18560 5437 5577 3024 11060 10030 5437 11520 6345 17940 4260 6457 29040 16770 5728 4900 7461 5223 26120 25920 25030 22350 17940 7204 8032 5885 7944 5065 8261 6459 1188 4461 8964 4725 8209 4122 6630 14380 29340 17440 4964 8560 24350 6900 8300 24930 6131 5349 11520 6451 10790 6706 5590 12350
2021-05-14 7273 5907 2924 8598 3169 8533 5962 15660 8336 9684 9825 11830 3878 23700 30660 19760 17700 8270 8231 8298 13880 22700 22470 101800 7129 18520 9319 5983 27590 5028 25450 7132 50050 10850 6815 28840 12610 14660 30970 6063 24480 6266 9124 7201 10010 17380 13460 14720 5829 14210 7121 10180 26320 8233 10810 8371 7490 16140 12590 12760 3784 9171 21080 21830 6181 4951 4303 8020 17320 2515 11400 3164 5905 14320 2589 38280 24020 8004 31120 8639 7592 10400 4313 20250 12530 24040 11950 26970 4220 6989 31480 6452 3061 4228 5260 4907 8249 6486 2872 4863 4907 18460 9688 8970 5903 7414 29900 12480 5273 7366 6819 5283 5649 6002 11690 9640 8093 4813 13840 8240 42610 3891 10320 5561 22550 7441 3421 21790 12000 4229 13120 5199 20920 7985 7736 21020 4398 8953 6240 7107 26970 7126 8268 5063 3644 26840 6211 5722 25220 7933 8054 3004 7739 6835 15100 9138 6146 7757 20050 12350 34820 17420 24390 9545 63720 37060 4943 21800 6611 6964 7549 48620 20810 12740 3770 2808 53750 8340 26200 2744 3492 16350 2270 3345 6864 12630 7774 12620 3257 20240 1766 11660 6227 7367 23930 8488 35740 11420 11650 6419 2005 6080 8732 6431 5590 22490 9722 3057 10150 12640 4384 6122 18360 17620 7478 31000 8652 4991 23290 9603 9739 4634 15830 9311 14340 4201 14000 11010 33080 9369 6249 9292 10720 21380 4611 10950 2651 21570 6139 4901 21600 6710 6897 7778 1683 23460 34410 5611 5459 24200 5195 6933 44400 15160 15640 14750 6010 4270 4848 5859 7373 15320 1704 5459 7610 4531 19080 5605 4778 5931 8180 5491 8697 11420 14980 14830 22560 7461 7880 17130 8593 5390 6064 3458 21200 16040 20280 5225 3809 22180 5499 16010 13440 17630 11600 18570 5438 5579 3025 11060 10030 5440 11520 6348 17950 4260 6458 29050 16780 5728 4902 7462 5225 26140 25920 25040 22360 17940 7207 8035 5888 7946 5071 8264 6464 1188 4466 8966 4728 8221 4123 6632 14390 29350 17440 4965 8565 24360 6901 8305 24930 6132 5351 11520 6452 10790 6708 5592 12350
2021-05-15 7282 5915 2925 8599 3173 8541 5963 15670 8338 9685 9827 11830 3880 23700 30670 19770 17700 8273 8233 8300 13910 22710 22480 101800 7131 18540 9325 5984 27670 5030 25450 7134 50090 10850 6819 28850 12610 14660 30980 6064 24490 6266 9125 7203 10010 17390 13470 14730 5831 14220 7122 10180 26320 8234 10810 8371 7497 16150 12600 12760 3785 9173 21080 21840 6183 4953 4305 8023 17340 2518 11400 3165 5909 14320 2590 38290 24040 8007 31130 8643 7594 10400 4314 20260 12540 24050 11950 26980 4226 6995 31490 6462 3063 4229 5265 4908 8250 6490 2875 4864 4913 18460 9689 8974 5904 7417 29910 12480 5274 7375 6829 5284 5652 6006 11700 9642 8095 4814 13850 8240 42680 3893 10320 5562 22550 7442 3423 21800 12010 4231 13120 5201 20930 7988 7739 21030 4400 8955 6242 7108 26970 7131 8270 5066 3649 26860 6214 5723 25240 7936 8059 3006 7741 6837 15110 9142 6150 7762 20050 12360 34850 17430 24390 9546 63760 37070 4944 21810 6612 6967 7551 48630 20820 12750 3770 2809 53780 8342 26210 2746 3493 16360 2272 3347 6865 12640 7777 12630 3262 20240 1777 11660 6228 7368 23950 8489 35740 11420 11660 6427 2006 6081 8734 6433 5592 22510 9735 3057 10150 12650 4385 6123 18360 17630 7482 31010 8655 4993 23300 9607 9740 4642 15830 9319 14340 4202 14010 11020 33090 9372 6251 9293 10740 21380 4612 10960 2653 21580 6141 4901 21610 6715 6899 7779 1684 23470 34420 5612 5462 24220 5203 6935 44430 15170 15650 14760 6011 4275 4849 5860 7376 15320 1707 5463 7612 4532 19100 5608 4781 5934 8182 5492 8698 11420 14990 14840 22570 7462 7882 17130 8595 5392 6066 3462 21210 16050 20290 5226 3811 22190 5500 16020 13440 17630 11600 18570 5438 5581 3026 11060 10030 5442 11520 6350 17950 4261 6458 29060 16780 5729 4903 7463 5227 26140 25930 25040 22370 17950 7210 8039 5889 7947 5075 8266 6467 1189 4471 8966 4730 8232 4124 6635 14390 29350 17450 4966 8569 24360 6902 8308 24930 6133 5351 11520 6452 10800 6711 5592 12360
2021-05-16 7291 5922 2926 8599 3176 8549 5964 15670 8342 9688 9829 11840 3881 23710 30670 19790 17700 8275 8236 8305 13930 22710 22480 101900 7134 18560 9331 5985 27760 5034 25460 7138 50120 10860 6822 28860 12610 14660 30990 6065 24500 6267 9126 7206 10020 17390 13470 14740 5833 14220 7123 10180 26330 8234 10810 8372 7503 16150 12600 12760 3786 9174 21090 21840 6185 4956 4306 8026 17360 2521 11410 3166 5914 14330 2591 38300 24050 8010 31140 8646 7599 10400 4315 20260 12560 24060 11960 26990 4231 7001 31510 6473 3064 4230 5271 4910 8252 6494 2877 4867 4920 18470 9693 8979 5906 7420 29910 12480 5275 7386 6838 5285 5657 6010 11720 9643 8097 4816 13850 8242 42750 3894 10320 5565 22560 7444 3424 21800 12010 4233 13130 5205 20930 7990 7744 21030 4402 8956 6244 7109 26980 7137 8273 5070 3654 26870 6216 5724 25250 7941 8063 3009 7742 6839 15110 9148 6152 7768 20060 12360 34880 17430 24400 9548 63810 37090 4945 21810 6613 6971 7554 48640 20830 12750 3771 2810 53820 8347 26210 2748 3494 16360 2273 3349 6867 12650 7779 12640 3267 20250 1788 11660 6231 7369 23970 8490 35740 11430 11670 6434 2008 6084 8737 6435 5595 22540 9748 3058 10150 12650 4387 6124 18370 17640 7485 31030 8659 4994 23310 9611 9743 4647 15840 9327 14350 4203 14010 11020 33090 9375 6253 9296 10750 21380 4613 10960 2654 21590 6142 4902 21620 6720 6901 7782 1685 23480 34420 5613 5464 24230 5210 6938 44460 15170 15650 14760 6013 4279 4850 5862 7379 15330 1709 5471 7616 4534 19130 5613 4785 5936 8185 5495 8699 11420 15000 14840 22580 7463 7885 17140 8597 5394 6068 3466 21220 16050 20290 5227 3814 22190 5502 16020 13440 17630 11610 18580 5439 5582 3027 11070 10030 5444 11520 6353 17950 4261 6458 29060 16790 5730 4904 7464 5229 26160 25940 25040 22370 17950 7213 8043 5892 7949 5080 8268 6472 1190 4475 8968 4733 8244 4125 6642 14400 29360 17460 4967 8573 24370 6902 8312 24940 6135 5352 11530 6453 10800 6714 5594 12370
2021-05-17 7298 5929 2928 8600 3179 8557 5964 15670 8346 9691 9831 11840 3882 23710 30680 19810 17700 8277 8239 8309 13960 22720 22480 101900 7137 18590 9337 5987 27860 5039 25460 7141 50150 10860 6826 28880 12610 14660 31010 6068 24500 6268 9127 7210 10020 17400 13470 14750 5836 14230 7125 10180 26330 8235 10810 8372 7511 16160 12600 12770 3787 9176 21100 21850 6186 4958 4307 8030 17390 2525 11410 3166 5919 14340 2592 38320 24060 8011 31150 8650 7601 10410 4317 20270 12570 24080 11960 27000 4237 7007 31530 6483 3066 4231 5281 4911 8254 6498 2880 4869 4927 18480 9697 8984 5911 7423 29920 12490 5276 7399 6848 5286 5658 6014 11750 9644 8098 4817 13850 8243 42820 3896 10320 5567 22560 7446 3425 21810 12010 4234 13130 5207 20940 7992 7749 21040 4406 8957 6247 7111 26980 7146 8276 5074 3659 26890 6219 5725 25270 7945 8071 3012 7745 6841 15120 9153 6157 7775 20070 12370 34920 17430 24410 9552 63870 37110 4946 21820 6614 6976 7556 48640 20840 12750 3772 2811 53860 8351 26220 2751 3496 16370 2274 3351 6868 12650 7781 12640 3272 20260 1800 11660 6233 7372 23990 8492 35750 11430 11670 6443 2009 6087 8739 6436 5597 22580 9760 3060 10160 12660 4388 6125 18380 17640 7489 31050 8664 4996 23310 9618 9744 4652 15840 9336 14350 4203 14020 11030 33100 9378 6254 9299 10760 21380 4614 10970 2656 21600 6144 4903 21640 6725 6904 7785 1687 23490 34430 5616 5467 24250 5217 6940 44510 15180 15660 14760 6015 4285 4852 5864 7381 15330 1712 5478 7621 4535 19150 5616 4789 5939 8188 5497 8700 11430 15010 14840 22580 7464 7888 17140 8599 5396 6070 3470 21230 16060 20300 5229 3816 22200 5505 16020 13450 17630 11610 18590 5440 5584 3028 11070 10040 5446 11520 6355 17960 4262 6459 29070 16800 5731 4906 7465 5230 26170 25950 25050 22380 17960 7217 8047 5894 7950 5084 8270 6479 1190 4480 8969 4735 8256 4126 6650 14410 29370 17470 4968 8577 24370 6903 8315 24940 6138 5353 11530 6454 10800 6717 5595 12370
2021-05-18 7307 5936 2929 8601 3182 8566 5965 15680 8350 9693 9833 11850 3884 23720 30690 19830 17710 8279 8242 8316 13980 22730 22490 101900 7140 18620 9343 5987 27950 5042 25470 7143 50180 10860 6829 28890 12620 14670 31020 6069 24510 6268 9128 7214 10030 17410 13470 14760 5838 14230 7126 10190 26340 8236 10810 8372 7518 16160 12600 12770 3789 9177 21110 21850 6188 4959 4309 8034 17410 2529 11410 3167 5923 14340 2594 38330 24070 8013 31160 8653 7605 10410 4318 20270 12590 24090 11970 27010 4242 7014 31540 6493 3067 4232 5290 4913 8255 6502 2883 4871 4935 18490 9700 8989 5914 7425 29920 12490 5276 7415 6860 5288 5661 6017 11770 9645 8100 4819 13860 8245 42900 3898 10330 5568 22570 7447 3427 21810 12010 4235 13140 5210 20940 7994 7754 21040 4409 8959 6248 7112 26980 7155 8278 5079 3664 26900 6222 5726 25290 7949 8079 3015 7748 6842 15120 9158 6160 7783 20080 12370 34950 17430 24420 9554 63930 37130 4948 21820 6615 6981 7558 48650 20840 12760 3772 2812 53900 8355 26220 2753 3497 16370 2275 3354 6870 12660 7783 12650 3278 20260 1813 11660 6235 7374 24010 8493 35760 11440 11680 6451 2010 6088 8741 6438 5600 22610 9772 3060 10160 12670 4389 6126 18380 17650 7492 31070 8668 4997 23320 9623 9746 4659 15850 9344 14360 4204 14030 11030 33110 9380 6256 9302 10770 21380 4616 10970 2658 21610 6146 4904 21650 6731 6906 7789 1689 23500 34430 5617 5470 24270 5224 6942 44540 15190 15660 14770 6016 4290 4853 5866 7383 15340 1715 5484 7624 4536 19180 5622 4794 5941 8190 5498 8701 11430 15020 14850 22590 7466 7890 17140 8601 5398 6072 3475 21240 16070 20300 5232 3819 22200 5506 16030 13450 17640 11620 18600 5441 5586 3029 11080 10040 5448 11530 6358 17960 4263 6460 29070 16800 5733 4907 7466 5232 26180 25960 25060 22390 17960 7220 8051 5897 7952 5088 8272 6486 1191 4486 8970 4737 8268 4127 6658 14420 29380 17480 4969 8580 24380 6904 8318 24950 6139 5355 11530 6455 10800 6720 5597 12380
2021-05-19 7319 5944 2930 8602 3185 8574 5966 15680 8355 9694 9834 11850 3885 23720 30700 19840 17710 8281 8245 8319 14010 22740 22490 101900 7143 18640 9350 5988 28050 5046 25480 7146 50220 10860 6833 28900 12620 14670 31030 6070 24510 6269 9129 7217 10030 17410 13470 14780 5840 14240 7127 10190 26350 8237 10810 8372 7525 16170 12610 12770 3790 9179 21120 21860 6190 4962 4310 8037 17440 2532 11420 3168 5928 14350 2595 38350 24090 8017 31170 8656 7608 10410 4319 20280 12610 24110 11970 27020 4248 7021 31570 6503 3069 4233 5298 4915 8256 6507 2885 4873 4942 18500 9703 8995 5917 7428 29930 12490 5277 7430 6872 5290 5664 6021 11790 9646 8101 4820 13860 8246 42980 3899 10330 5569 22580 7449 3428 21820 12010 4237 13140 5215 20940 7996 7758 21050 4411 8960 6250 7113 26990 7164 8280 5085 3670 26910 6225 5727 25300 7953 8086 3018 7750 6844 15130 9163 6165 7789 20090 12380 34980 17440 24420 9557 64000 37150 4949 21830 6616 6987 7560 48660 20850 12760 3773 2814 53940 8358 26230 2756 3500 16380 2276 3356 6871 12670 7785 12660 3283 20270 1827 11660 6238 7376 24030 8495 35760 11450 11690 6459 2011 6090 8743 6441 5602 22640 9784 3061 10170 12680 4391 6127 18390 17650 7495 31090 8674 4999 23340 9628 9748 4664 15860 9352 14360 4204 14040 11040 33110 9383 6258 9304 10780 21390 4617 10970 2660 21620 6147 4904 21670 6736 6908 7791 1691 23510 34440 5619 5473 24290 5231 6943 44580 15190 15670 14770 6018 4295 4855 5868 7386 15340 1717 5490 7630 4537 19200 5627 4799 5944 8193 5501 8702 11430 15030 14850 22590 7467 7893 17150 8603 5401 6074 3479 21250 16070 20310 5235 3822 22210 5507 16030 13450 17640 11630 18610 5442 5587 3030 11080 10040 5451 11530 6360 17960 4264 6460 29080 16810 5735 4908 7467 5233 26200 25970 25060 22390 17970 7223 8055 5899 7954 5092 8275 6492 1192 4491 8971 4739 8280 4128 6666 14430 29380 17490 4970 8584 24380 6905 8321 24950 6141 5356 11530 6456 10810 6723 5598 12390

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.