COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-05-15 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-05-15

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-05-15

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2812-2712-2712-2612-2712-262021-03-2512-2707-212021-03-2512-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1112-302021-05-0412-2612-2212-2912-2712-2712-2912-072021-01-072021-01-0311-132021-01-0112-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2812-3012-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-2110-2812-3012-2212-2812-2512-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-3010-042021-01-0412-262021-01-0512-2912-2612-2712-2912-2411-0212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-282021-01-022021-02-2512-2110-1412-2712-0712-2612-2210-0412-2707-2112-2412-2910-0412-2412-2111-0912-0612-2607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-0609-2712-2712-2312-2712-2212-2812-2512-1812-252021-01-0412-2612-2610-0412-2112-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-2712-2812-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-2212-2912-2812-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0112-2112-2812-2112-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2110-2712-2712-292021-01-0611-022021-01-0312-2112-2712-2711-0212-2112-262021-04-0412-2212-2112-3112-292021-01-0212-2211-012021-01-0712-0812-2112-2112-2112-2212-212021-03-2512-3107-2112-2212-2712-0607-212021-03-1812-2812-292021-01-0311-0312-2712-0612-2707-2112-0812-2710-2612-2612-2110-0411-0112-2112-2911-0412-212021-01-0412-2712-212021-01-0112-2912-2911-0212-2807-2112-2712-2812-2612-272021-01-062021-01-062021-01-0112-062021-01-0412-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2210-0412-0612-2812-2112-2712-2812-1012-3112-1310-1812-3012-2812-2712-252021-01-262021-01-0212-2912-292021-01-0312-2312-2112-3112-2912-2211-0207-2112-3012-2512-2512-2112-2912-2112-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0910-0412-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-2712-2211-0712-2812-2711-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2512-292021-01-0212-2612-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-1912-2212-2312-2712-0611-1312-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-2012-1310-0411-0212-0710-0412-2212-2312-2212-2712-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-2512-3112-2112-3012-2611-02
Peak daily increment 92 102 61 88 97 40 77 73 119 106 170 110 171 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 128 110 108 32 252 426 1250 75 157 65 95 58 157 50 484 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 320 107 508 94 186 62 122 123 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 107 303 40 90 268 52 197 249 283 59 91 71 65 266 20 243 5 35 53 94 285 34 553 288 38 181 598 151 69 189 72 58 246 27 170 248 187 118 322 119 87 536 308 60 52 71 76 160 106 25 51 235 204 102 163 147 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 80 69 90 73 94 119 150 125 54 38 122 82 597 92 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 219 59 201 57 401 172 103 338 101 106 136 120 476 101 159 52 76 442 57 116 452 143 83 74 134 18 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 311 428 107 1449 284 104 456 71 230 102 727 27 200 90 36 368 92 419 25 46 106 298 37 62 153 186 27 213 302 361 79 62 66 23 105 63 122 85 723 190 212 192 23 50 137 105 51 394 105 58 122 107 41 55 277 158 121 224 90 68 123 3 125 44 108 58 154 120 207 43 102 174 623 105 81 176 151 286 52 188 39 132 139 56 96 198 80 85 59 174 36 25 162 450 42 83 82 403 65 131 573 25 209 244 167 97 42 111 102 69 181 27 42 86 72 448 95 79 108 80 66 102 115 247 293 450 131 156 219 94 55 112 26 189 138 197 66 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 123 56 109 46 141 352 90 44 138 122 360 139 51 101 14 559 151 90 110 120 84 250 329 449 390 227 259 138 117 160 65 154 87 29 78 166 42 65 67 115 217 217 265 83 148 430 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 594
Days since peak 138 139 139 140 139 140 51 139 298 51 145 139 158 145 143 138 143 214 139 143 133 124 136 11 140 144 137 139 139 137 159 128 132 183 134 145 203 144 139 139 152 160 138 136 141 145 140 144 136 136 139 159 199 145 139 140 158 160 139 158 145 144 145 199 136 144 138 141 144 145 132 145 145 136 223 131 140 130 137 140 139 137 142 194 139 138 139 139 145 141 145 145 138 133 79 145 213 139 159 140 144 223 139 298 142 137 223 142 145 187 160 140 298 196 139 136 138 145 140 144 141 145 144 129 230 139 143 139 144 138 141 148 141 131 140 140 223 145 138 145 145 139 145 130 144 139 138 145 145 145 138 139 138 145 143 153 139 153 137 144 137 138 138 136 144 140 145 134 145 138 145 139 144 138 138 141 195 145 200 139 137 129 194 132 145 139 139 194 145 140 41 144 145 135 137 133 144 195 128 158 145 145 145 144 145 51 135 298 144 139 160 298 58 138 137 132 193 139 160 139 298 158 139 201 140 145 223 195 145 137 192 145 131 139 145 134 137 137 194 138 298 139 138 140 139 129 129 134 160 131 137 145 135 130 144 223 160 138 145 139 138 156 135 153 209 136 138 139 141 109 133 137 137 132 143 145 135 137 144 194 298 136 141 141 145 137 145 145 138 140 141 131 144 187 223 145 144 146 132 138 139 144 145 152 138 140 145 141 141 200 144 189 138 139 195 145 143 144 139 145 159 164 141 137 133 140 136 131 139 145 140 145 147 144 143 139 160 183 145 139 144 140 158 145 195 139 139 151 141 194 145 144 145 139 140 146 153 223 194 159 223 144 143 144 139 137 144 144 138 139 144 139 134 138 141 135 145 136 140 194
Last total 7274 5919 2920 5054 8585 3171 8521 5964 1453 15680 8319 9681 9816 11814 3870 23687 30632 19718 4284 17688 8244 8232 8284 13885 22703 22467 101771 7117 18577 9301 6174 5973 27726 5028 25420 7117 50026 10842 6801 28826 6913 12612 14647 30946 6045 24474 6262 9120 7194 10015 17390 13462 14715 5830 14202 7113 10131 26313 8222 10808 8362 7497 16141 1785 12572 12743 3774 9162 21068 21807 6172 4938 4300 8024 17350 2513 11391 296 3888 3165 5900 14267 2584 38222 23989 2839 7985 31108 8613 7572 10390 4295 4339 20227 2994 12549 24004 11922 7868 26954 4212 6985 31461 6444 3050 4221 5262 4894 8227 6477 2874 4858 4928 18424 9680 8942 6638 5893 2996 7398 29899 12466 5274 7337 5007 6822 5270 5631 6000 11704 9643 8081 3101 4808 13827 8241 42697 6403 3878 10304 5550 22556 7427 3419 21771 11996 4222 13118 5196 20928 7975 7724 21036 4389 8945 6228 7106 26951 7122 8263 5063 3640 26839 6200 5718 25224 7923 8049 3001 7721 2307 6824 15091 9126 6131 7738 20003 12359 34826 17409 24382 9529 63645 37064 4939 21795 6600 6951 7549 48588 20813 12734 3767 2801 53720 8330 26180 2733 3483 6739 16333 2261 3340 6852 12644 7770 12617 3274 20212 4419 4194 1760 11661 6209 7354 23919 8478 35725 11423 11654 6426 1993 6071 8719 6414 5580 22486 9687 3048 10127 12640 4378 6112 18335 17600 7465 30967 8633 4983 23286 74 9586 3487 9742 4638 15804 9281 14347 4201 14005 10998 33060 9362 6236 9285 10729 21375 4610 10933 2647 21566 6434 6143 4893 21577 6694 5528 6897 7776 1678 1894 23455 34394 5600 2902 5453 24176 5180 6918 44352 235 15130 15639 14739 5996 4264 4841 5843 7358 15287 1694 5459 7594 4524 19108 5588 4769 5920 8173 5474 8694 11410 14962 14815 22560 7454 7870 17116 8584 5381 6060 3463 21185 16025 20255 5209 3799 22165 5493 16003 13420 17631 11587 18553 5424 5569 3016 11046 10014 5425 2932 11507 6344 17934 8059 4260 6460 1001 29035 16784 5721 4901 7466 5197 26111 25896 25024 22345 17921 7197 8027 5876 7937 5054 8253 6478 1187 4463 8959 4716 8213 4120 6620 14385 29340 17384 4957 8550 24326 6894 8283 24909 6136 5341 11525 6444 10776 6699 5581 12332
Last daily increment 5 11 1 1 0 2 2 0 0 5 1 6 1 5 1 1 2 4 1 0 0 5 3 20 12 2 27 2 43 1 0 0 124 2 1 1 21 1 3 7 0 1 5 17 0 6 0 1 4 2 18 1 7 1 2 2 4 4 1 2 0 8 7 1 2 1 0 4 9 2 1 2 0 8 17 1 1 0 1 0 3 5 0 3 13 0 0 9 1 1 2 0 1 3 0 22 14 0 0 7 0 2 10 4 0 2 2 1 1 6 3 3 12 7 2 2 0 1 0 2 11 0 4 4 0 7 0 0 2 20 3 0 0 1 6 2 74 0 0 0 0 12 3 0 1 1 0 6 0 5 0 2 12 3 1 0 0 1 4 2 3 0 14 0 0 11 5 4 0 2 0 1 2 0 2 1 1 7 40 1 7 2 28 19 0 3 0 1 3 2 13 1 0 0 23 0 4 0 0 0 3 3 2 0 9 0 3 7 4 2 2 0 1 3 4 13 2 6 3 6 3 1 1 2 0 1 17 13 0 1 6 1 1 2 3 0 6 2 1 7 0 1 1 4 2 7 1 6 1 7 4 7 4 2 2 5 0 2 0 1 6 0 1 0 6 1 0 5 2 1 0 10 5 1 1 1 7 1 3 18 0 1 3 4 1 1 2 0 1 2 1 8 1 0 17 1 2 0 2 0 1 2 4 0 5 2 1 6 1 0 0 5 7 2 5 1 1 3 0 2 1 1 6 4 1 1 2 4 1 3 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 1 16 1 0 2 1 9 3 1 6 1 0 3 0 0 1 1 9 0 0 0 1 1 2 6 4 16 5 0 0 2 6 1 6 2 1 1 0 2 2 1 4
Last week 31 37 4 -3 -10 9 28 9 1 40 3 17 2 8 -3 12 30 37 0 13 -11 20 5 171 65 17 90 1 187 31 6 -3 780 23 10 -2 145 -1 2 55 -4 12 33 31 -2 32 3 4 19 40 58 5 57 17 7 0 -26 60 -5 15 -1 55 69 2 -3 -3 -1 6 50 7 -1 -1 6 36 129 10 5 2 10 5 16 -20 3 15 32 -7 -9 63 -10 -10 1 -6 3 6 -1 137 50 -12 -9 42 5 17 77 20 -2 2 47 -5 -13 16 11 8 81 41 7 -9 -9 13 2 2 37 2 10 22 0 37 -2 -2 26 129 10 -5 1 2 4 16 604 -2 -5 -1 0 56 3 4 9 8 2 33 15 39 -4 13 57 16 3 -5 6 4 25 5 29 12 70 5 4 113 15 27 11 4 2 3 13 15 5 8 13 32 229 -1 42 15 230 131 4 39 -2 16 16 11 55 -2 3 0 182 10 -2 4 -1 3 10 -3 11 -5 70 10 31 47 22 1 5 37 10 -8 14 79 2 23 43 63 34 -4 4 7 -6 2 102 42 -1 -8 54 3 0 10 15 6 56 2 2 30 2 3 7 23 40 29 7 27 7 47 9 24 5 -4 3 42 6 6 -2 1 65 1 14 -1 41 9 -2 15 17 5 -4 46 34 2 5 9 47 21 -8 175 0 -3 29 11 -6 17 2 1 -3 -4 5 35 2 0 136 -8 13 0 11 -10 0 8 37 3 23 1 4 10 5 -1 2 26 59 18 22 -5 7 5 2 16 -1 22 23 40 -8 -2 -1 9 -3 -1 -4 1 12 1 1 11 9 -5 23 47 -1 6 10 -15 58 6 25 31 -3 3 20 -3 -4 3 -1 39 1 6 6 -3 38 7 22 43 76 -2 -4 -1 -12 4 0 11 22 1 16 0 1 9 -4 8
Previous peak date07-2107-21 -- --10-2707-2112-2110-07 --12-21 --10-21 --10-25 -- -- -- --10-20 -- --10-2611-0212-2110-07 --11-02 --10-1310-13 --10-2510-15 --11-02 --05-0310-26 -- -- -- --10-1611-02 -- -- -- --10-1209-2710-2709-02 -- --10-01 -- -- --10-25 -- --10-10 -- --11-02 -- --10-2710-18 --10-20 -- --10-1307-2107-2110-14 -- -- -- --10-29 --04-2010-3110-31 --10-2910-17 -- -- --10-2110-2712-2810-01 --10-12 -- --07-2107-21 -- -- --11-0107-2110-27 -- --07-2110-27 -- -- --10-30 --10-20 --10-06 -- -- --10-18 --07-21 -- -- --07-21 -- -- --10-1510-2910-1107-21 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-2810-2710-14 --10-12 --10-2710-30 -- -- --10-29 -- --10-1710-2707-21 --11-01 -- -- --10-1307-21 --06-11 -- -- -- -- -- --10-13 --09-29 --10-0804-1411-02 -- --10-31 --10-1209-2812-27 -- -- --11-0210-25 -- -- -- --10-15 -- -- --10-1212-2111-03 --09-30 -- -- --12-07 -- --11-02 -- -- --09-24 -- --10-14 -- -- --07-21 -- --10-31 -- --11-0308-02 -- --11-0211-01 --10-22 -- -- -- --07-21 --11-0211-02 --11-02 -- --11-0310-26 --07-21 --10-1110-10 --10-19 --10-11 -- -- -- --10-13 -- -- --11-0211-0210-3107-21 --09-3010-25 -- -- --10-28 -- -- --07-21 -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- --07-21 -- -- --10-13 --10-24 -- -- -- -- --10-1710-0810-29 -- --07-2110-1810-12 -- -- --10-0610-31 -- -- -- --10-1811-04 -- --10-2910-1110-18 -- -- -- -- --10-26 -- -- --10-17 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-22 -- --10-22 -- -- -- -- --07-21 -- --07-21 --10-15 --10-1610-24 -- --09-3010-3010-11 --11-03 --10-1910-28 --10-17 -- --
Previous peak daily increment 616 365 80 295 134 40 260 61 40 31 75 271 233 262 1226 166 98 54 234 363 55 19 62 1197 57 72 160 31 54 39 60 294 35 120 54 62 1272 83 35 57 68 129 18 69 22 25 164 25 206 59 226 710 39 383 25 191 31 24 30 29 56 475 687 43 127 72 1766 70 33 54 60 69 57 38 22 44 144 49 59 248 45 46 153 81 75 479 56 71 480 273 2237 61 44 109 105 87 25 191 2429 91 53 1007 82 56 68 1343 64 257 230 139 354 150 88 41 459 41 46 194 65 67 406 233 81 152 189 33 104 226 66 876 66 75 20 118 77 149 184 120 129 18 172 46 89 27 17 45 144 135 23 307 376 24 319 68 141 22 25 38 54 32 67
Low between peaks 0 -1 28 0 8 18 13 26 -44 8 37 20 -12 48 303 55 29 19 62 23 27 -19 21 68 19 34 54 12 23 7 26 28 -43 -38 17 31 -11 -4 -18 12 1 39 -9 28 -31 9 53 8 34 -47 -2 -3 -13 -3 -32 -1 10 -10 8 -67 19 -4 -5 -9 24 23 -7 22 -40 23 15 -120 -7 19 -66 -54 -1 15 21 -2 0 18 21 23 6 120 21 21 58 7 114 21 -25 39 6 35 8 7 18 23 -9 -7 35 16 7 50 28 58 1 20 37 38 22 13 -2 -20 -118 62 22 16 36 92 19 -4 26 14 31 -2 24 -7 28 24 -77 30 38 -1 43 43 58 -23 32 15 31 11 7 6 -31 -27 -71 -2 -2 -25 77 -103 19 -17 -8 8 27 12 -4

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-16 to 2021-05-22

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonAshfieldAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBassetlawBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBradfordBrentBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBromleyBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCardiffCarmarthenshireCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireConwyCorbyCounty DurhamCoventryCroydonDerbyDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDudleyDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast DunbartonshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEastleighEnfieldEpsom and EwellErewashFalkirkFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireGedlingGlasgow CityGreenwichHackneyHaltonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarrogateHarrowHartHavantHerefordshireHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonManchesterMansfieldMertonMid SuffolkMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMorayNeath Port TalbotNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth TynesideNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamOldhamPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRochdaleRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellSedgemoorSeftonSelbySheffieldSloughSolihullSouth AyrshireSouth HollandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorthamptonshireSouth RibbleSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthwarkSt. HelensStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStroudSuttonSwanseaSwindonTamesideTelford and WrekinThree RiversTorbayTorfaenTower HamletsTraffordUttlesfordVale of GlamorganWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWatfordWest BerkshireWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWolverhamptonWorcesterWrexhamWyreYork
2021-05-15 7274 5919 3171 8521 5964 15680 9681 11814 23687 30632 19718 17688 8232 13885 22703 22467 101771 18577 9301 6174 27726 5028 25420 50026 28826 12612 14647 30946 24474 7194 10015 17390 14715 5830 14202 26313 10808 7497 16141 9162 21068 21807 4300 8024 17350 2513 3888 5900 38222 23989 31108 20227 12549 24004 26954 6985 31461 6444 5262 6477 2874 4858 4928 18424 9680 5893 29899 5274 7337 6822 6000 11704 9643 8241 42697 22556 21771 11996 13118 5196 20928 7724 21036 4389 7106 7122 5063 3640 26839 25224 7923 8049 3001 15091 9126 7738 20003 12359 34826 24382 9529 63645 37064 21795 6951 7549 48588 20813 53720 8330 16333 3340 12644 7770 12617 3274 20212 1760 11661 7354 23919 35725 11423 11654 6426 8719 22486 9687 12640 18335 17600 7465 30967 23286 3487 9742 4638 15804 9281 14347 4201 14005 10998 33060 10729 21375 4610 21566 6143 21577 6694 6897 7776 23455 34394 5453 24176 5180 44352 15639 14739 4264 5459 19108 4769 8173 11410 14962 22560 17116 3463 21185 16025 20255 3799 16003 17631 11587 18553 11046 6344 4260 6460 29035 16784 4901 7466 26111 25896 25024 22345 8027 6478 4463 8959 8213 4120 6620 14385 29340 24909 6136 11525 6699 12332
2021-05-16 7281 5919 3173 8528 5965 15690 9683 11820 23690 30650 19730 17690 8235 13910 22710 22470 101800 18610 9306 6174 27860 5031 25420 50080 28850 12610 14650 30960 24480 7195 10020 17400 14730 5833 14210 26320 10810 7505 16150 9163 21070 21810 4301 8030 17360 2515 3889 5908 38220 24000 31120 20250 12570 24010 26960 6990 31490 6449 5262 6481 2876 4864 4940 18430 9688 5897 29910 5275 7350 6828 6004 11720 9644 8244 42790 22560 21780 12000 13120 5199 20930 7726 21050 4392 7108 7136 5067 3643 26850 25230 7927 8071 3003 15100 9130 7738 20000 12370 34850 24390 9530 63720 37080 21800 6955 7552 48590 20820 53750 8341 16340 3342 12650 7773 12620 3280 20220 1769 11660 7356 23940 35740 11430 11660 6431 8719 22500 9697 12650 18360 17600 7468 30970 23300 3488 9746 4643 15830 9281 14350 4202 14010 11000 33070 10730 21380 4611 21580 6144 21590 6695 6900 7778 23480 34410 5465 24200 5186 44410 15640 14740 4267 5466 19110 4773 8176 11410 14960 22570 17120 3466 21200 16030 20260 3801 16010 17630 11590 18570 11050 6346 4262 6460 29040 16800 4903 7467 26170 25920 25030 22360 8031 6480 4465 8963 8221 4120 6636 14400 29350 24910 6138 11530 6702 12350
2021-05-17 7288 5922 3175 8542 5966 15690 9684 11820 23700 30670 19770 17690 8240 13940 22720 22480 101800 18650 9307 6174 27990 5038 25420 50130 28870 12610 14660 30980 24490 7198 10020 17410 14740 5839 14220 26330 10810 7509 16170 9165 21090 21820 4305 8032 17380 2517 3889 5916 38230 24010 31130 20260 12580 24020 26970 6996 31520 6462 5269 6486 2876 4869 4951 18450 9695 5903 29910 5276 7370 6837 6015 11730 9646 8246 42880 22570 21790 12000 13130 5205 20940 7728 21060 4396 7109 7148 5068 3648 26870 25250 7931 8088 3004 15110 9143 7742 20010 12370 34890 24390 9536 63790 37110 21810 6961 7558 48590 20840 53810 8349 16350 3344 12660 7783 12630 3284 20220 1786 11660 7356 23960 35760 11430 11670 6433 8720 22520 9726 12650 18370 17610 7476 30980 23320 3492 9747 4645 15850 9281 14350 4204 14030 11000 33080 10730 21380 4612 21590 6144 21610 6696 6900 7783 23490 34430 5472 24220 5203 44470 15650 14740 4273 5473 19110 4778 8180 11420 14970 22580 17120 3466 21210 16040 20280 3805 16010 17640 11610 18580 11050 6351 4264 6461 29060 16810 4906 7467 26210 25930 25040 22370 8037 6487 4472 8966 8232 4120 6649 14410 29360 24910 6139 11530 6706 12360
2021-05-18 7297 5925 3176 8553 5967 15690 9684 11820 23710 30670 19800 17690 8244 13960 22740 22480 101800 18680 9310 6174 28110 5040 25430 50150 28870 12610 14660 30980 24500 7198 10020 17420 14740 5843 14230 26340 10820 7515 16180 9167 21090 21830 4308 8037 17390 2520 3889 5916 38240 24010 31140 20260 12590 24020 26970 7001 31530 6472 5277 6490 2877 4869 4962 18470 9695 5903 29920 5277 7388 6846 6022 11750 9647 8249 42980 22570 21800 12000 13140 5209 20950 7730 21070 4396 7111 7149 5070 3653 26880 25260 7931 8094 3006 15110 9151 7742 20010 12370 34920 24400 9538 63810 37120 21810 6966 7562 48590 20860 53830 8349 16350 3346 12670 7790 12640 3290 20220 1799 11670 7356 23980 35770 11440 11680 6437 8722 22550 9745 12650 18370 17610 7481 30990 23330 3494 9749 4649 15850 9281 14360 4205 14030 11000 33090 10740 21390 4613 21600 6145 21630 6697 6902 7783 23500 34430 5474 24220 5215 44480 15650 14740 4278 5477 19120 4783 8184 11420 14970 22590 17120 3467 21220 16050 20300 3807 16020 17640 11620 18580 11050 6354 4266 6462 29080 16820 4909 7468 26220 25940 25050 22370 8041 6491 4478 8966 8241 4121 6649 14420 29370 24920 6140 11530 6709 12360
2021-05-19 7302 5930 3178 8562 5968 15700 9685 11820 23710 30670 19810 17690 8247 13980 22750 22490 101800 18710 9314 6174 28230 5044 25430 50190 28880 12620 14670 30990 24500 7200 10020 17430 14760 5847 14230 26350 10820 7521 16190 9169 21100 21830 4310 8041 17420 2523 3890 5920 38250 24020 31140 20260 12610 24020 26970 7006 31540 6481 5290 6494 2879 4871 4974 18480 9696 5904 29920 5278 7403 6854 6028 11770 9648 8251 43070 22580 21800 12000 13140 5213 20950 7733 21080 4397 7112 7157 5074 3657 26890 25280 7934 8102 3009 15120 9158 7742 20020 12370 34960 24410 9541 63870 37140 21810 6971 7566 48590 20870 53880 8350 16360 3348 12680 7795 12640 3295 20220 1810 11670 7356 24000 35790 11440 11690 6442 8723 22570 9760 12660 18370 17610 7485 31010 23330 3496 9752 4653 15860 9281 14360 4206 14040 11010 33100 10750 21390 4614 21610 6147 21640 6698 6904 7783 23510 34440 5479 24230 5224 44530 15650 14750 4283 5483 19140 4787 8187 11420 14980 22590 17120 3469 21230 16060 20310 3810 16020 17650 11620 18590 11050 6357 4268 6464 29090 16830 4911 7469 26250 25940 25050 22380 8046 6493 4482 8968 8251 4121 6654 14430 29380 24920 6141 11540 6712 12370
2021-05-20 7308 5939 3180 8571 5969 15700 9686 11830 23720 30680 19830 17690 8251 14010 22750 22490 101800 18750 9318 6174 28330 5046 25430 50220 28890 12620 14670 31010 24510 7203 10020 17440 14770 5850 14240 26350 10820 7528 16200 9171 21110 21830 4312 8046 17450 2525 3890 5923 38250 24030 31150 20260 12630 24040 26980 7010 31560 6489 5297 6497 2880 4872 4985 18490 9699 5907 29930 5279 7418 6861 6034 11780 9650 8254 43160 22580 21810 12000 13140 5217 20960 7737 21090 4399 7114 7164 5078 3662 26910 25290 7939 8105 3011 15120 9164 7743 20030 12380 35000 24410 9550 63920 37160 21830 6977 7569 48600 20880 53930 8357 16360 3350 12690 7799 12650 3300 20230 1821 11670 7356 24020 35800 11450 11700 6448 8724 22590 9773 12660 18380 17620 7488 31040 23340 3498 9755 4658 15870 9281 14360 4207 14050 11010 33110 10760 21390 4615 21620 6148 21650 6699 6906 7785 23520 34450 5482 24230 5232 44560 15650 14750 4287 5486 19150 4791 8190 11430 14990 22600 17120 3472 21240 16070 20320 3812 16030 17650 11630 18600 11060 6360 4269 6465 29100 16840 4913 7470 26270 25950 25060 22390 8050 6500 4486 8969 8260 4121 6659 14440 29390 24930 6143 11540 6714 12380
2021-05-21 7317 5946 3182 8578 5970 15710 9690 11830 23720 30690 19850 17690 8253 14030 22760 22500 101800 18780 9322 6175 28460 5049 25430 50250 28900 12620 14680 31030 24510 7208 10020 17440 14780 5853 14240 26360 10820 7535 16210 9173 21120 21840 4313 8050 17470 2528 3891 5925 38250 24040 31160 20270 12640 24050 26990 7015 31570 6497 5305 6501 2882 4873 4997 18500 9700 5910 29930 5280 7431 6870 6039 11800 9651 8257 43260 22590 21810 12000 13150 5221 20960 7741 21100 4403 7115 7172 5083 3666 26920 25310 7941 8111 3013 15130 9169 7743 20030 12380 35030 24420 9550 63960 37180 21830 6983 7573 48600 20890 53970 8359 16370 3352 12700 7802 12660 3306 20230 1831 11670 7356 24040 35810 11460 11710 6455 8726 22610 9784 12670 18380 17620 7492 31060 23350 3499 9759 4664 15880 9281 14360 4209 14050 11010 33110 10770 21390 4616 21640 6150 21660 6700 6908 7788 23530 34460 5484 24240 5238 44580 15650 14750 4291 5491 19170 4795 8192 11430 14990 22600 17130 3475 21250 16070 20330 3814 16030 17650 11640 18600 11060 6362 4271 6467 29100 16850 4915 7471 26280 25950 25060 22390 8055 6505 4489 8970 8270 4121 6661 14440 29400 24930 6145 11540 6717 12380
2021-05-22 7325 5957 3184 8585 5971 15720 9694 11830 23730 30690 19860 17690 8256 14050 22770 22500 101800 18810 9326 6175 28570 5051 25430 50270 28910 12620 14690 31050 24520 7210 10020 17450 14790 5856 14250 26370 10820 7542 16220 9175 21120 21840 4315 8055 17490 2531 3892 5928 38250 24040 31170 20270 12660 24060 26990 7019 31580 6504 5308 6504 2883 4875 5008 18510 9701 5911 29940 5281 7444 6879 6043 11820 9652 8260 43340 22600 21820 12000 13150 5225 20970 7745 21110 4405 7117 7175 5088 3670 26930 25320 7943 8114 3015 15130 9173 7743 20030 12390 35060 24420 9550 63980 37200 21830 6989 7576 48600 20900 54010 8360 16370 3353 12710 7805 12660 3312 20230 1840 11670 7356 24060 35820 11460 11710 6461 8727 22640 9794 12670 18380 17620 7494 31070 23350 3501 9762 4669 15880 9281 14370 4210 14060 11010 33120 10780 21390 4618 21650 6151 21670 6701 6911 7789 23540 34460 5486 24250 5244 44600 15660 14760 4295 5497 19190 4798 8195 11430 14990 22610 17130 3479 21250 16080 20330 3816 16030 17660 11640 18610 11060 6364 4273 6467 29110 16860 4917 7472 26290 25950 25070 22400 8059 6512 4493 8970 8279 4122 6665 14450 29410 24930 6147 11540 6719 12390

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-16 to 2021-05-22

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonAshfieldAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBassetlawBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBradfordBrentBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBromleyBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCardiffCarmarthenshireCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireConwyCorbyCounty DurhamCoventryCroydonDerbyDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDudleyDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast DunbartonshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEastleighEnfieldEpsom and EwellErewashFalkirkFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireGedlingGlasgow CityGreenwichHackneyHaltonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarrogateHarrowHartHavantHerefordshireHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonManchesterMansfieldMertonMid SuffolkMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMorayNeath Port TalbotNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth TynesideNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamOldhamPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRochdaleRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellSedgemoorSeftonSelbySheffieldSloughSolihullSouth AyrshireSouth HollandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorthamptonshireSouth RibbleSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthwarkSt. HelensStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStroudSuttonSwanseaSwindonTamesideTelford and WrekinThree RiversTorbayTorfaenTower HamletsTraffordUttlesfordVale of GlamorganWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWatfordWest BerkshireWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWolverhamptonWorcesterWrexhamWyreYork
2021-05-15 7274 5919 3171 8521 5964 15680 9681 11814 23687 30632 19718 17688 8232 13885 22703 22467 101771 18577 9301 6174 27726 5028 25420 50026 28826 12612 14647 30946 24474 7194 10015 17390 14715 5830 14202 26313 10808 7497 16141 9162 21068 21807 4300 8024 17350 2513 3888 5900 38222 23989 31108 20227 12549 24004 26954 6985 31461 6444 5262 6477 2874 4858 4928 18424 9680 5893 29899 5274 7337 6822 6000 11704 9643 8241 42697 22556 21771 11996 13118 5196 20928 7724 21036 4389 7106 7122 5063 3640 26839 25224 7923 8049 3001 15091 9126 7738 20003 12359 34826 24382 9529 63645 37064 21795 6951 7549 48588 20813 53720 8330 16333 3340 12644 7770 12617 3274 20212 1760 11661 7354 23919 35725 11423 11654 6426 8719 22486 9687 12640 18335 17600 7465 30967 23286 3487 9742 4638 15804 9281 14347 4201 14005 10998 33060 10729 21375 4610 21566 6143 21577 6694 6897 7776 23455 34394 5453 24176 5180 44352 15639 14739 4264 5459 19108 4769 8173 11410 14962 22560 17116 3463 21185 16025 20255 3799 16003 17631 11587 18553 11046 6344 4260 6460 29035 16784 4901 7466 26111 25896 25024 22345 8027 6478 4463 8959 8213 4120 6620 14385 29340 24909 6136 11525 6699 12332
2021-05-16 7281 5926 3174 8527 5965 15690 9687 11820 23690 30640 19730 17690 8235 13910 22710 22470 101800 18610 9303 6174 27840 5032 25420 50050 28840 12610 14650 30960 24480 7197 10020 17400 14730 5831 14210 26320 10810 7504 16150 9164 21080 21810 4301 8030 17370 2516 3889 5904 38230 24000 31120 20230 12570 24010 26960 6989 31480 6451 5266 6481 2876 4861 4938 18430 9683 5895 29910 5276 7350 6829 6004 11720 9645 8244 42780 22560 21780 12000 13120 5199 20930 7727 21050 4392 7107 7129 5067 3643 26860 25240 7928 8056 3002 15100 9130 7739 20000 12370 34870 24390 9530 63690 37080 21800 6954 7552 48590 20820 53760 8334 16340 3342 12650 7771 12620 3280 20220 1769 11660 7356 23940 35730 11430 11660 6431 8722 22510 9699 12650 18340 17610 7468 30980 23290 3488 9746 4641 15810 9283 14350 4202 14010 11000 33070 10740 21380 4611 21580 6145 21590 6696 6900 7778 23460 34400 5456 24190 5185 44380 15640 14740 4266 5467 19130 4772 8176 11410 14970 22570 17120 3467 21190 16030 20260 3803 16010 17630 11590 18560 11050 6346 4261 6461 29040 16800 4902 7467 26130 25900 25030 22350 8031 6483 4466 8960 8221 4121 6628 14390 29350 24910 6139 11530 6702 12340
2021-05-17 7290 5933 3177 8537 5966 15690 9689 11820 23700 30650 19750 17690 8238 13940 22720 22470 101800 18640 9306 6174 27960 5037 25430 50090 28860 12610 14660 30970 24490 7200 10030 17410 14740 5833 14210 26330 10810 7512 16160 9166 21090 21820 4303 8036 17390 2520 3889 5909 38240 24010 31130 20240 12590 24020 26970 6996 31500 6463 5274 6485 2878 4865 4948 18440 9689 5901 29910 5277 7366 6840 6008 11750 9646 8246 42870 22570 21780 12000 13130 5203 20940 7731 21050 4395 7108 7137 5071 3648 26870 25260 7931 8063 3006 15100 9136 7745 20010 12370 34910 24400 9533 63760 37110 21810 6959 7554 48600 20830 53800 8338 16350 3344 12660 7775 12630 3286 20220 1783 11660 7358 23960 35740 11430 11670 6439 8724 22540 9714 12650 18350 17610 7472 31000 23300 3490 9748 4646 15820 9287 14360 4202 14020 11000 33080 10750 21380 4613 21590 6146 21610 6699 6901 7781 23470 34410 5460 24210 5193 44430 15650 14750 4273 5474 19150 4777 8179 11420 14970 22570 17120 3471 21200 16040 20270 3804 16010 17640 11600 18570 11050 6349 4262 6461 29050 16800 4903 7469 26140 25910 25040 22360 8035 6491 4471 8962 8233 4122 6638 14400 29360 24910 6142 11530 6704 12350
2021-05-18 7301 5939 3180 8546 5966 15690 9689 11820 23700 30660 19760 17700 8240 13970 22730 22480 101800 18660 9310 6174 28070 5039 25430 50110 28860 12620 14660 30980 24490 7201 10030 17420 14740 5835 14220 26340 10810 7519 16170 9167 21090 21820 4305 8037 17420 2524 3890 5911 38240 24010 31140 20240 12600 24020 26980 7002 31520 6472 5282 6488 2881 4865 4958 18450 9689 5901 29920 5277 7375 6850 6012 11770 9647 8248 42970 22570 21790 12000 13130 5206 20940 7733 21060 4397 7108 7140 5074 3653 26890 25280 7933 8067 3009 15110 9141 7746 20010 12370 34930 24410 9533 63790 37120 21810 6962 7557 48600 20840 53830 8339 16350 3346 12670 7777 12640 3292 20230 1795 11660 7358 23980 35740 11440 11680 6446 8725 22570 9727 12660 18350 17610 7476 31010 23310 3492 9749 4652 15820 9290 14360 4203 14030 11010 33080 10760 21380 4614 21590 6148 21620 6700 6902 7782 23480 34410 5460 24230 5199 44460 15650 14750 4278 5479 19180 4781 8181 11420 14980 22580 17130 3475 21210 16040 20280 3805 16020 17640 11610 18580 11050 6351 4263 6462 29050 16810 4904 7470 26150 25920 25040 22360 8040 6495 4476 8962 8244 4123 6638 14410 29360 24920 6143 11530 6707 12350
2021-05-19 7308 5946 3183 8554 5967 15700 9690 11820 23710 30660 19780 17700 8241 13990 22740 22480 101800 18690 9314 6174 28180 5043 25430 50150 28870 12620 14660 30980 24500 7204 10040 17430 14760 5836 14220 26350 10810 7527 16180 9168 21100 21830 4306 8039 17440 2528 3890 5915 38250 24020 31150 20240 12620 24030 26980 7008 31530 6481 5294 6491 2883 4866 4970 18450 9691 5903 29920 5278 7388 6860 6016 11790 9648 8249 43070 22580 21800 12000 13140 5210 20950 7736 21060 4400 7109 7146 5079 3658 26900 25300 7935 8072 3011 15110 9146 7748 20010 12380 34970 24410 9534 63850 37140 21810 6968 7559 48600 20850 53870 8340 16360 3348 12680 7779 12650 3296 20230 1806 11660 7359 24000 35750 11450 11690 6453 8726 22600 9737 12660 18350 17620 7479 31030 23310 3493 9750 4659 15830 9293 14360 4203 14030 11010 33090 10770 21380 4615 21610 6149 21630 6702 6904 7783 23490 34410 5462 24240 5204 44500 15650 14750 4282 5485 19200 4785 8184 11420 14990 22580 17130 3479 21220 16050 20280 3807 16020 17640 11610 18590 11060 6353 4264 6462 29060 16810 4905 7471 26160 25920 25040 22370 8044 6498 4480 8962 8256 4124 6641 14420 29370 24920 6145 11530 6709 12360
2021-05-20 7316 5956 3186 8561 5968 15700 9691 11830 23710 30670 19790 17700 8245 14020 22740 22480 101900 18720 9318 6175 28290 5046 25440 50180 28880 12620 14660 31000 24510 7207 10040 17430 14770 5838 14220 26360 10820 7535 16190 9169 21110 21830 4307 8042 17470 2531 3891 5918 38260 24030 31150 20250 12640 24050 26990 7015 31550 6491 5301 6494 2886 4867 4980 18460 9693 5906 29930 5278 7403 6869 6019 11820 9649 8250 43150 22590 21800 12000 13140 5213 20950 7739 21070 4402 7110 7152 5083 3663 26920 25310 7939 8076 3014 15120 9150 7751 20020 12380 35010 24420 9538 63910 37160 21820 6973 7561 48610 20850 53910 8345 16360 3349 12680 7781 12650 3302 20240 1817 11670 7360 24010 35750 11450 11690 6462 8728 22630 9747 12670 18360 17620 7482 31050 23320 3495 9753 4664 15840 9299 14360 4204 14040 11010 33090 10780 21380 4616 21620 6151 21640 6704 6906 7785 23500 34420 5465 24250 5210 44530 15660 14760 4287 5490 19220 4788 8186 11420 14990 22590 17130 3484 21230 16060 20290 3810 16030 17640 11620 18590 11060 6355 4265 6463 29070 16820 4907 7472 26170 25930 25050 22380 8048 6505 4483 8963 8268 4125 6647 14430 29370 24920 6148 11540 6711 12360
2021-05-21 7327 5963 3190 8569 5969 15700 9693 11830 23710 30680 19810 17700 8247 14040 22750 22490 101900 18750 9323 6175 28400 5049 25440 50210 28890 12620 14670 31010 24510 7210 10050 17440 14780 5839 14230 26360 10820 7543 16200 9170 21120 21830 4308 8045 17500 2535 3892 5921 38260 24030 31160 20260 12660 24050 27000 7021 31570 6499 5307 6497 2888 4869 4990 18470 9695 5909 29940 5279 7423 6880 6022 11840 9650 8252 43240 22590 21810 12000 13140 5216 20960 7743 21070 4405 7111 7159 5087 3668 26930 25330 7941 8079 3017 15120 9153 7755 20020 12380 35040 24430 9539 63970 37180 21830 6979 7563 48610 20860 53940 8347 16360 3351 12690 7783 12660 3307 20240 1829 11670 7360 24030 35750 11460 11700 6471 8730 22650 9756 12680 18370 17620 7485 31060 23330 3496 9756 4670 15840 9302 14370 4205 14050 11010 33100 10800 21380 4617 21640 6152 21650 6705 6908 7787 23510 34430 5467 24260 5214 44560 15660 14760 4291 5495 19250 4793 8188 11430 15000 22590 17130 3488 21240 16060 20290 3812 16030 17650 11620 18600 11060 6358 4266 6464 29070 16820 4908 7473 26180 25930 25050 22380 8052 6510 4489 8964 8280 4125 6651 14430 29380 24920 6150 11540 6713 12370
2021-05-22 7337 5973 3193 8576 5970 15710 9693 11830 23720 30680 19820 17700 8248 14070 22760 22490 101900 18770 9328 6175 28510 5051 25450 50230 28900 12620 14670 31030 24520 7212 10050 17440 14790 5841 14230 26370 10820 7551 16210 9171 21120 21840 4309 8048 17520 2539 3893 5925 38270 24040 31170 20260 12680 24060 27000 7028 31580 6508 5312 6500 2891 4871 5000 18470 9697 5911 29940 5280 7439 6891 6024 11850 9651 8253 43330 22600 21810 12000 13150 5218 20960 7746 21080 4408 7112 7162 5092 3673 26940 25340 7943 8084 3019 15120 9158 7757 20020 12390 35070 24430 9539 64020 37190 21830 6983 7565 48610 20870 53970 8349 16370 3353 12700 7785 12670 3313 20240 1839 11670 7361 24050 35760 11460 11710 6480 8731 22680 9765 12680 18370 17630 7487 31080 23340 3497 9758 4678 15850 9305 14370 4205 14050 11020 33110 10810 21390 4618 21650 6154 21660 6707 6909 7789 23520 34430 5469 24280 5219 44600 15660 14760 4296 5500 19280 4797 8190 11430 15010 22600 17130 3493 21250 16070 20290 3814 16030 17650 11630 18610 11060 6360 4267 6464 29080 16830 4909 7474 26190 25940 25060 22390 8056 6514 4493 8964 8292 4126 6654 14440 29380 24920 6151 11540 6715 12380

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.