COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-05-17 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-05-17

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-05-17

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2812-2712-2712-2612-2712-262021-03-2512-2607-212021-03-2512-2112-2712-0712-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1112-312021-05-0212-2612-2212-2912-2712-2712-2912-072021-01-072021-01-0311-132021-01-0112-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2812-3012-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-2110-2812-3012-2212-2812-2512-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-3010-042021-01-0412-262021-01-0512-2912-2612-2712-2112-2411-0212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-282021-01-022021-02-2512-2110-1412-2712-0712-2612-2210-0412-2707-2112-2412-2910-0412-2412-2111-0912-0612-2607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-0609-2212-2712-2312-2712-2212-2812-2512-2512-252021-01-0412-2612-2610-0412-2112-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-2712-2812-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-2212-2912-2812-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0112-2112-2812-2112-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2212-2712-2712-292021-01-0611-022021-01-0312-2112-2712-2711-0212-2112-262021-04-0312-2212-2112-3112-292021-01-0212-2210-292021-01-0712-0812-2112-2112-2112-2212-212021-03-2512-3107-2112-2212-2712-0607-212021-03-1812-2812-292021-01-0311-0312-2712-0612-2707-2112-0812-2710-2612-2612-2110-0411-0112-2112-3011-0412-212021-01-0412-2712-212021-01-0112-2912-2911-0212-2807-2112-2712-2812-2612-272021-01-062021-01-062021-01-0112-062021-01-0412-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2210-0412-0612-2712-2112-2712-2812-1312-3112-1310-1812-3012-2812-2712-252021-01-262021-01-0212-2912-292021-01-0312-2312-2112-2812-2912-2211-0207-2112-3012-2512-2512-2112-2912-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0910-0412-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-2712-2207-2112-2812-2711-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2512-292021-01-0212-2612-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-2112-2212-2212-2712-0611-1312-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-2012-1310-0411-0212-0710-0412-2212-2812-2212-2712-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-2712-3112-2812-2512-3112-2112-3012-2611-02
Peak daily increment 92 102 61 88 97 40 77 73 115 106 170 110 176 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 128 109 108 31 252 426 1249 75 157 65 95 58 157 50 484 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 319 107 508 94 186 62 122 122 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 107 303 41 91 268 52 197 249 283 59 91 71 65 267 19 243 5 35 53 94 288 34 551 288 38 181 598 151 69 189 72 58 246 27 170 248 187 118 322 119 87 536 296 60 52 71 76 160 106 25 51 226 206 102 163 146 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 81 69 90 74 94 119 150 125 54 38 122 82 631 92 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 218 59 201 57 401 172 103 338 103 106 136 120 476 101 159 52 76 442 57 115 452 143 83 74 134 18 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 189 311 428 107 1522 284 104 457 71 229 102 727 27 200 90 36 368 92 419 25 46 105 298 37 62 153 186 26 213 296 361 79 62 65 23 105 63 122 85 723 190 212 186 23 50 137 105 50 389 105 58 123 106 41 55 277 158 121 224 90 68 123 3 125 44 108 58 154 120 203 43 102 174 623 105 81 176 150 286 52 188 39 132 138 56 96 198 80 85 59 174 36 25 162 448 42 83 82 407 65 131 557 24 209 244 167 97 42 110 102 69 181 27 42 86 73 460 94 79 108 80 66 102 115 248 293 451 131 156 222 94 55 112 144 189 138 197 67 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 123 56 109 46 140 349 90 44 138 123 360 138 51 101 15 559 151 90 110 120 84 245 329 449 390 227 260 138 117 160 65 154 87 29 79 165 42 65 67 115 217 217 264 83 148 431 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 573
Days since peak 140 141 141 142 141 142 53 142 300 53 147 141 161 147 145 140 145 216 141 145 135 126 137 15 142 146 139 141 141 139 161 130 134 185 136 147 205 146 141 141 154 162 140 138 143 147 142 146 138 138 141 161 201 147 141 142 160 162 141 160 147 146 147 201 138 146 140 143 146 147 134 147 147 138 225 133 142 132 139 142 141 147 144 196 141 140 141 141 147 143 147 147 140 135 81 147 215 141 161 142 146 225 141 300 144 139 225 144 147 189 162 142 300 198 141 138 140 147 142 146 143 147 146 131 237 141 145 141 146 140 143 143 143 133 142 142 225 147 140 147 147 141 147 132 146 141 140 147 147 147 140 141 140 147 145 155 141 155 139 146 139 140 140 138 146 142 147 136 147 140 147 141 146 140 140 143 197 146 141 141 139 131 196 134 147 141 141 196 147 142 44 146 147 137 139 135 146 200 130 160 147 147 147 146 147 53 137 300 146 141 162 300 60 140 139 134 195 141 162 141 300 160 141 203 142 147 225 197 147 138 194 147 133 141 147 136 139 139 196 140 300 141 140 142 141 131 131 136 162 133 139 147 137 132 146 225 162 141 147 141 140 155 137 155 211 138 140 141 143 111 135 139 139 134 145 147 140 139 146 196 300 138 143 143 147 139 146 147 140 142 143 133 146 189 225 147 146 148 134 140 141 146 147 154 140 142 147 143 143 202 146 300 140 141 197 147 145 146 141 147 161 166 143 139 135 142 138 133 141 147 142 147 147 146 146 141 162 185 147 141 146 142 160 147 197 141 141 153 143 196 147 146 147 141 142 148 155 225 196 161 225 146 140 146 141 139 146 146 140 141 146 141 137 140 143 137 147 138 142 196
Last total 7281 5926 2923 5054 8587 3180 8534 5965 1455 15692 8321 9685 9819 11818 3873 23695 30637 19743 4286 17691 8248 8237 8291 13987 22730 22471 101832 7121 18680 9303 6176 5974 28147 5039 25435 7116 50116 10843 6806 28839 6915 12613 14657 30972 6048 24502 6264 9126 7202 10035 17418 13470 14746 5832 14214 7119 10143 26323 8224 10811 8363 7515 16168 1787 12575 12743 3774 9162 21082 21810 6174 4942 4302 8041 17389 2537 11394 297 3889 3165 5905 14278 2585 38236 24007 2842 7992 31157 8620 7572 10393 4299 4339 20229 2996 12578 24041 11927 7867 26970 4213 6993 31508 6452 3051 4223 5282 4897 8229 6482 2876 4866 4972 18440 9680 8945 6639 5894 2998 7403 29907 12472 5273 7346 5011 6832 5274 5634 6011 11737 9645 8081 3100 4809 13834 8258 42916 6408 3878 10309 5552 22571 7429 3421 21782 11997 4224 13131 5196 20945 7979 7724 21055 4396 8949 6226 7109 26959 7128 8271 5072 3642 26874 6202 5720 25260 7921 8063 3001 7724 2309 6825 15098 9136 6138 7743 20011 12378 34954 17414 24426 9537 63732 37119 4940 21806 6608 6956 7559 48595 20841 12737 3768 2808 53796 8336 26185 2737 3482 6739 16336 2262 3348 6852 12669 7776 12624 3286 20232 4418 4198 1768 11666 6216 7369 23959 8479 35736 11435 11672 6440 1998 6073 8724 6414 5582 22521 9692 3049 10132 12688 4380 6117 18340 17612 7465 30979 8639 4989 23306 74 9590 3490 9754 4646 15823 9282 14366 4202 14021 11025 33078 9363 6242 9290 10752 21378 4612 10946 2648 21591 6435 6156 4894 21596 6703 5528 6905 7782 1678 1894 23470 34411 5603 2904 5456 24195 5192 6919 44401 236 15146 15640 14749 6003 4264 4848 5841 7361 15295 1700 5462 7600 4530 19137 5593 4774 5920 8178 5476 8696 11416 14969 14820 22568 7457 7877 17127 8587 5385 6061 3479 21198 16036 20269 5210 3802 22170 5495 16010 13429 17637 11594 18567 5426 5571 3021 11042 10013 5426 2932 11510 6354 17935 8068 4257 6461 1000 29041 16819 5722 4906 7468 5196 26141 25907 25038 22354 17929 7198 8037 5874 7941 5066 8258 6495 1189 4465 8963 4717 8230 4121 6631 14384 29372 17387 4955 8555 24331 6899 8299 24920 6155 5342 11530 6450 10781 6705 5583 12339
Last daily increment 3 5 0 0 1 9 6 1 0 6 1 5 3 4 2 4 6 17 1 1 2 3 5 77 17 6 44 1 63 2 1 0 248 4 7 1 56 2 5 6 1 1 6 19 1 20 2 4 2 11 16 6 19 2 9 3 9 4 1 3 1 12 19 1 3 2 1 0 11 3 1 2 0 11 26 16 1 1 1 0 3 7 0 10 14 2 3 24 4 2 2 2 0 3 2 15 18 4 0 10 1 4 29 5 2 1 15 3 2 3 2 6 28 12 2 3 1 1 0 2 7 1 0 4 0 6 2 2 8 16 2 0 0 1 6 8 126 2 0 0 1 9 2 0 5 1 1 5 1 8 3 0 12 3 1 0 1 2 3 7 6 2 24 3 2 23 0 11 0 2 2 1 4 3 4 1 7 10 77 3 26 4 52 29 2 9 2 4 7 3 12 4 1 3 46 1 3 2 0 0 1 2 3 0 20 3 3 7 13 0 2 6 3 4 6 22 0 8 10 12 7 2 1 3 1 2 16 3 0 1 29 1 7 4 7 0 7 1 3 15 0 1 0 8 4 10 5 10 1 12 13 11 0 3 3 15 2 1 7 0 19 1 8 2 9 6 0 7 5 1 0 6 11 1 2 2 12 4 1 26 0 8 4 8 4 0 4 0 1 7 3 2 2 5 18 4 3 0 6 0 3 6 7 4 6 2 3 6 2 3 0 10 10 8 13 1 3 5 1 5 6 3 8 11 0 2 2 1 2 1 0 3 6 2 4 0 1 0 3 22 2 4 1 0 22 10 10 4 6 3 7 2 2 6 2 10 1 1 2 2 8 3 5 0 16 4 2 3 4 2 11 6 18 0 2 3 0 1 1 4
Last week 23 36 7 4 3 16 25 6 3 42 13 22 6 20 7 20 27 67 5 15 6 26 21 202 71 23 156 12 241 19 7 3 944 24 28 4 198 8 11 53 3 7 38 62 9 54 4 12 30 43 84 12 82 14 21 12 41 38 4 10 4 47 89 3 13 7 4 16 64 18 4 8 5 49 136 28 12 3 7 3 18 25 6 43 64 4 13 97 15 2 7 6 3 13 7 120 90 13 0 53 3 20 92 21 2 6 53 7 6 20 10 14 100 56 5 17 1 10 3 14 37 13 8 38 7 34 6 4 24 110 9 3 3 5 27 27 605 8 5 12 7 63 11 3 24 12 4 38 13 44 6 14 62 17 7 -1 14 18 36 19 29 9 86 8 6 108 18 35 2 11 3 6 17 21 17 16 27 53 315 10 80 23 250 140 4 49 12 20 24 29 73 10 6 12 197 19 19 7 0 2 14 7 19 4 65 8 32 39 45 3 7 32 14 13 28 104 9 34 39 56 40 9 8 21 5 6 97 34 4 9 91 6 13 18 36 9 64 12 10 41 2 11 8 34 35 43 14 50 6 49 47 34 11 11 11 54 6 8 22 3 82 3 28 7 55 20 1 22 16 4 1 50 55 10 7 11 54 35 5 164 1 25 24 30 10 5 10 6 8 21 15 26 16 10 116 12 14 4 18 4 8 18 40 16 29 13 17 29 12 9 5 30 63 27 44 6 14 14 3 25 18 21 32 42 4 7 10 13 4 8 1 10 19 10 21 4 8 -1 24 93 6 11 7 5 83 29 30 38 17 5 27 7 7 20 11 43 3 6 8 4 42 12 28 27 86 26 0 14 16 17 24 29 35 7 17 9 9 16 5 22
Previous peak date07-2107-21 -- --10-2707-2112-2110-07 --12-21 --10-21 --10-25 -- -- -- --10-20 -- --10-2611-0212-2110-07 --11-02 --10-1310-13 --10-2510-15 --11-02 --05-03 -- -- -- -- --10-1611-02 -- -- -- --10-1209-2710-2709-02 -- --10-01 -- -- --10-25 -- --10-10 -- --11-02 -- --10-2710-18 --10-20 -- --10-1307-2107-2110-14 -- -- -- --09-16 --04-2010-3110-31 --10-2910-17 -- -- --10-2110-2712-2810-01 --10-12 -- --07-2107-21 -- -- --11-0107-2110-27 -- --07-2110-27 -- -- --10-29 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- --10-18 --07-21 -- -- --07-21 -- -- --10-1710-2910-1107-21 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-2810-2710-14 --10-12 --10-2710-28 -- -- --10-29 -- --10-1710-2707-21 --11-01 -- -- --10-1307-21 --06-11 -- -- -- -- -- --10-1310-2709-29 --10-0804-1411-02 -- --10-31 --10-1209-2812-27 -- -- --11-0210-25 -- -- -- --10-15 -- -- --10-1212-2111-03 --09-30 -- -- --12-07 -- --11-02 -- -- --09-24 -- --10-14 -- -- --07-21 -- --10-30 -- --11-0308-02 -- --11-0211-01 --10-22 -- -- -- --07-21 --11-0211-02 --11-02 -- --11-0310-26 --07-21 --10-1110-10 --10-19 --10-11 -- -- -- --10-13 -- -- --11-0211-0210-3107-21 --09-3010-25 -- -- --10-28 -- -- --07-21 -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- --07-21 -- -- --10-13 --10-24 -- -- -- -- --10-1710-08 -- -- -- --10-1810-15 -- -- --10-0610-31 -- -- -- --10-1811-02 -- --10-2910-1110-18 -- -- -- -- --10-26 -- -- --10-22 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-22 -- --10-22 -- -- -- -- --07-21 -- --07-21 -- -- --10-1610-26 --10-2209-3010-3010-11 --11-03 --10-1910-28 --10-17 -- --
Previous peak daily increment 605 366 80 285 134 40 260 61 40 31 75 277 233 262 1200 166 98 55 234 355 56 62 1167 57 72 160 31 54 39 60 292 35 121 54 62 1221 82 35 31 68 128 19 69 22 25 164 25 206 59 216 684 39 370 25 184 31 24 30 29 56 457 661 42 127 72 1697 70 33 54 60 68 57 38 22 44 139 49 59 239 44 46 349 153 81 75 469 56 71 480 274 2166 61 44 109 105 87 25 191 2512 91 53 969 82 56 68 1362 60 257 227 135 347 156 88 41 445 41 46 194 65 67 417 233 80 147 189 33 104 218 67 839 66 75 20 118 183 120 129 19 172 47 89 27 17 45 145 135 23 296 369 319 69 35 141 22 25 38 54 32 67
Low between peaks 0 -1 28 0 8 18 13 26 -40 8 37 20 -12 48 307 55 29 19 57 31 27 21 64 19 34 53 12 26 7 25 29 -43 -49 17 31 -11 -4 -19 12 1 42 -10 29 -33 9 53 8 34 -64 -2 -3 -15 -3 -35 -1 12 -10 8 -67 19 -4 -5 -8 24 23 -7 22 -41 23 15 -114 -4 18 -63 -57 -1 15 21 -2 0 18 89 20 23 6 120 21 21 58 7 112 21 -23 39 6 35 6 7 20 23 -12 -7 35 17 7 49 28 58 1 20 37 38 22 13 -2 -20 -118 62 22 16 43 92 19 -4 26 14 33 -2 24 -7 28 24 -73 30 43 43 58 -23 32 15 31 11 7 6 -49 -29 -68 -2 -2 77 -99 -19 20 -18 -8 8 27 12 -4

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-18 to 2021-05-24

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarmarthenshireCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChichesterChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterConwyCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCrawleyCroydonDacorumDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDudleyDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast SuffolkEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHackneyHaltonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth RibbleSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTest ValleyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorfaenTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreYork
2021-05-17 7281 5926 2923 3180 8534 5965 15692 8321 9685 9819 11818 3873 23695 30637 19743 17691 8248 8237 8291 13987 22730 22471 101832 7121 18680 9303 6176 28147 5039 25435 50116 10843 6806 28839 12613 14657 30972 6048 24502 9126 7202 10035 17418 13470 14746 5832 14214 7119 10143 26323 10811 7515 16168 12575 12743 9162 21082 21810 4942 8041 17389 2537 11394 3889 5905 14278 2585 38236 24007 7992 31157 8620 10393 4299 20229 2996 12578 24041 11927 26970 6993 31508 6452 4223 5282 4897 8229 6482 2876 4866 4972 18440 8945 5894 7403 29907 12472 5273 7346 5011 6832 5274 6011 11737 9645 13834 8258 42916 6408 10309 5552 22571 7429 21782 11997 13131 5196 20945 7979 7724 21055 4396 8949 7109 26959 7128 8271 5072 3642 26874 6202 5720 25260 7921 8063 7724 6825 15098 9136 6138 7743 20011 12378 34954 17414 24426 9537 63732 37119 21806 6608 6956 7559 48595 20841 12737 3768 2808 53796 8336 26185 2737 16336 2262 3348 12669 7776 12624 3286 20232 4198 1768 11666 6216 7369 23959 8479 35736 11435 11672 6440 1998 6073 8724 5582 22521 9692 10132 12688 4380 6117 18340 17612 7465 30979 8639 4989 23306 9590 3490 9754 4646 15823 9282 14366 4202 14021 11025 33078 9363 6242 9290 10752 21378 4612 10946 21591 6156 4894 21596 6703 6905 7782 23470 34411 5603 2904 5456 24195 5192 44401 15146 15640 14749 6003 4848 5841 7361 15295 1700 5462 7600 4530 19137 5593 4774 8178 8696 11416 14969 14820 22568 7457 7877 17127 8587 5385 3479 21198 16036 20269 5210 3802 22170 16010 13429 17637 11594 18567 5571 3021 11042 5426 11510 6354 17935 8068 6461 29041 16819 5722 4906 7468 26141 25907 25038 22354 17929 8037 5874 7941 5066 8258 6495 4465 8963 8230 4121 6631 14384 29372 17387 8555 24331 6899 8299 24920 6155 5342 11530 6450 10781 6705 12339
2021-05-18 7292 5931 2924 3185 8541 5966 15700 8333 9685 9821 11820 3875 23700 30650 19760 17690 8249 8237 8296 14040 22740 22480 101900 7126 18730 9307 6177 28310 5041 25450 50140 10850 6814 28860 12610 14660 30970 6048 24520 9127 7202 10040 17430 13470 14760 5834 14220 7119 10140 26340 10820 7523 16180 12580 12750 9165 21090 21810 4946 8046 17390 2546 11400 3890 5910 14290 2586 38250 24030 7998 31170 8624 10400 4302 20240 2996 12600 24080 11940 26980 6998 31530 6457 4225 5282 4902 8230 6485 2877 4868 4990 18450 8959 5899 7406 29910 12470 5274 7359 5012 6840 5275 6016 11750 9646 13840 8262 43020 6408 10310 5557 22580 7432 21790 12000 13140 5199 20950 7982 7732 21070 4399 8950 7112 26960 7133 8273 5073 3644 26890 6204 5721 25270 7929 8084 7727 6826 15100 9140 6140 7759 20030 12380 34950 17420 24450 9553 63790 37130 21810 6608 6959 7563 48620 20850 12740 3769 2808 53820 8338 26190 2739 16340 2262 3350 12680 7779 12630 3289 20240 4199 1776 11670 6219 7373 23980 8480 35740 11440 11680 6445 1999 6079 8727 5584 22540 9700 10140 12710 4381 6117 18350 17620 7467 31010 8639 4990 23320 9593 3491 9754 4651 15840 9294 14370 4203 14030 11030 33080 9365 6244 9292 10760 21380 4613 10950 21600 6157 4895 21610 6710 6907 7785 23470 34420 5605 2905 5466 24210 5196 44450 15160 15640 14750 6007 4849 5841 7365 15310 1702 5472 7605 4531 19150 5606 4777 8181 8699 11420 14990 14820 22570 7460 7880 17130 8587 5388 3488 21210 16040 20280 5216 3804 22170 16010 13430 17640 11600 18580 5573 3023 11050 5428 11510 6357 17940 8068 6462 29050 16820 5724 4908 7469 26200 25920 25040 22360 17940 8042 5875 7943 5076 8259 6496 4471 8964 8238 4123 6641 14400 29380 17430 8564 24340 6900 8303 24940 6165 5345 11530 6452 10780 6708 12350
2021-05-19 7299 5933 2926 3191 8555 5967 15700 8341 9688 9824 11830 3877 23710 30660 19790 17700 8258 8242 8299 14100 22750 22480 101900 7133 18780 9312 6177 28510 5045 25460 50180 10850 6821 28870 12620 14670 30990 6051 24530 9127 7202 10040 17440 13480 14770 5837 14230 7120 10150 26340 10820 7528 16180 12590 12760 9172 21100 21820 4953 8046 17410 2552 11400 3890 5918 14300 2588 38290 24050 8003 31170 8634 10400 4308 20250 2997 12610 24120 11950 26990 7002 31540 6468 4230 5292 4906 8237 6491 2878 4870 5006 18470 8975 5902 7412 29920 12480 5275 7391 5016 6849 5277 6023 11770 9648 13840 8262 43120 6411 10320 5563 22580 7440 21800 12010 13140 5207 20960 7988 7738 21080 4400 8954 7116 26970 7147 8274 5077 3650 26900 6209 5724 25290 7936 8104 7735 6830 15110 9152 6148 7774 20060 12380 34980 17420 24460 9563 63870 37140 21820 6610 6968 7566 48630 20860 12750 3770 2809 53870 8345 26200 2741 16350 2266 3351 12690 7787 12640 3289 20250 4199 1797 11670 6226 7374 24000 8485 35760 11450 11690 6446 2002 6085 8732 5590 22560 9729 10150 12730 4384 6121 18360 17640 7476 31040 8641 4992 23330 9607 3494 9755 4653 15850 9316 14370 4205 14040 11030 33100 9369 6247 9296 10760 21390 4614 10960 21610 6157 4896 21630 6721 6907 7786 23480 34450 5609 2906 5474 24230 5208 44510 15180 15650 14760 6011 4850 5846 7371 15320 1706 5479 7614 4532 19150 5614 4784 8184 8704 11420 15010 14830 22580 7464 7882 17130 8590 5393 3495 21220 16050 20290 5223 3808 22180 16020 13440 17640 11620 18590 5577 3026 11060 5435 11520 6358 17950 8068 6463 29070 16830 5729 4911 7470 26250 25930 25050 22370 17950 8047 5881 7949 5083 8262 6496 4474 8966 8246 4125 6649 14410 29390 17450 8575 24350 6902 8307 24950 6173 5349 11540 6453 10790 6712 12360
2021-05-20 7305 5937 2928 3196 8565 5968 15710 8348 9689 9826 11840 3879 23710 30670 19810 17700 8264 8248 8306 14150 22750 22490 101900 7139 18820 9317 6177 28670 5048 25470 50220 10860 6825 28890 12620 14670 31000 6054 24540 9127 7203 10040 17460 13480 14780 5840 14230 7123 10150 26350 10820 7534 16180 12600 12770 9177 21110 21830 4957 8048 17440 2559 11410 3890 5921 14310 2590 38320 24070 8008 31180 8642 10400 4313 20260 2998 12630 24160 11960 27000 7006 31560 6478 4233 5297 4910 8241 6495 2879 4872 5022 18480 8985 5906 7417 29930 12480 5276 7415 5019 6855 5279 6029 11790 9649 13850 8263 43220 6413 10320 5569 22590 7445 21800 12010 13150 5212 20960 7992 7745 21090 4402 8957 7119 26980 7157 8276 5083 3655 26910 6212 5726 25300 7941 8118 7740 6832 15120 9160 6153 7788 20080 12380 35000 17430 24480 9574 63930 37160 21830 6613 6973 7570 48650 20870 12760 3770 2811 53910 8352 26210 2743 16360 2268 3353 12690 7792 12650 3289 20250 4199 1811 11670 6228 7376 24020 8487 35760 11450 11700 6449 2003 6091 8736 5594 22580 9747 10160 12750 4386 6124 18370 17650 7481 31070 8643 4994 23340 9616 3497 9761 4657 15870 9333 14380 4207 14040 11030 33100 9372 6249 9299 10760 21390 4615 10970 21630 6157 4900 21640 6729 6908 7788 23480 34460 5611 2907 5477 24240 5216 44540 15190 15650 14760 6015 4851 5849 7376 15330 1709 5484 7621 4533 19160 5621 4789 8187 8710 11430 15030 14830 22590 7468 7884 17130 8596 5397 3502 21230 16060 20300 5226 3810 22190 16020 13440 17650 11630 18600 5580 3028 11070 5440 11520 6361 17950 8069 6465 29080 16850 5734 4913 7471 26290 25940 25050 22380 17960 8052 5884 7952 5091 8265 6502 4478 8968 8256 4127 6657 14420 29400 17460 8584 24360 6903 8311 24960 6181 5351 11540 6454 10800 6715 12370
2021-05-21 7314 5942 2929 3201 8573 5969 15710 8353 9692 9827 11850 3881 23720 30680 19830 17710 8268 8250 8311 14190 22760 22490 102000 7142 18870 9321 6177 28860 5051 25480 50250 10860 6828 28900 12620 14680 31020 6056 24560 9128 7204 10040 17460 13480 14790 5842 14240 7123 10150 26350 10820 7540 16190 12610 12780 9181 21120 21830 4960 8052 17470 2566 11410 3891 5924 14320 2591 38340 24070 8011 31180 8647 10400 4317 20260 2999 12650 24190 11960 27010 7010 31580 6486 4235 5305 4912 8245 6499 2881 4874 5038 18490 8993 5909 7420 29930 12480 5277 7433 5021 6863 5280 6034 11800 9650 13850 8265 43320 6414 10320 5574 22600 7449 21810 12020 13150 5217 20970 7995 7751 21100 4405 8959 7122 26980 7165 8278 5087 3659 26930 6214 5727 25320 7945 8129 7743 6834 15120 9166 6156 7795 20100 12380 35030 17430 24490 9578 63980 37180 21840 6614 6979 7573 48650 20880 12760 3771 2812 53950 8357 26210 2744 16360 2270 3354 12700 7796 12660 3289 20260 4200 1823 11670 6230 7379 24040 8491 35770 11460 11710 6454 2005 6097 8739 5597 22600 9761 10160 12770 4388 6126 18380 17650 7485 31090 8644 4995 23340 9622 3498 9766 4662 15870 9346 14380 4208 14050 11040 33110 9375 6251 9302 10770 21390 4617 10980 21640 6157 4901 21650 6736 6910 7791 23480 34480 5613 2909 5481 24260 5222 44570 15200 15660 14770 6018 4852 5850 7379 15330 1711 5489 7627 4534 19180 5625 4793 8189 8714 11430 15040 14840 22600 7470 7886 17140 8598 5400 3509 21240 16070 20310 5229 3812 22190 16030 13440 17650 11640 18600 5583 3030 11080 5443 11530 6363 17960 8071 6466 29090 16850 5736 4915 7472 26320 25950 25060 22390 17970 8056 5886 7955 5095 8266 6506 4482 8969 8265 4129 6660 14430 29410 17470 8589 24370 6905 8314 24970 6190 5352 11540 6455 10800 6717 12380
2021-05-22 7321 5948 2930 3206 8581 5970 15720 8356 9695 9828 11850 3883 23720 30680 19850 17710 8272 8254 8314 14240 22770 22500 102000 7143 18910 9325 6177 29030 5053 25480 50270 10860 6831 28900 12620 14690 31040 6056 24570 9128 7204 10050 17470 13480 14800 5844 14240 7124 10150 26360 10820 7547 16190 12620 12780 9184 21130 21840 4965 8055 17480 2574 11410 3892 5928 14320 2592 38360 24090 8013 31190 8653 10410 4320 20270 2999 12670 24210 11960 27010 7015 31590 6493 4238 5308 4914 8248 6502 2883 4876 5054 18500 8998 5910 7423 29940 12480 5278 7451 5023 6873 5281 6038 11820 9651 13850 8268 43410 6415 10330 5578 22600 7453 21810 12020 13160 5221 20970 7999 7756 21110 4407 8960 7125 26990 7172 8280 5090 3663 26940 6217 5727 25330 7949 8142 7743 6835 15130 9172 6159 7800 20110 12380 35050 17440 24510 9581 64030 37200 21840 6614 6982 7576 48660 20890 12760 3772 2812 53980 8359 26220 2746 16370 2271 3356 12710 7800 12660 3290 20260 4200 1834 11670 6232 7381 24060 8494 35780 11460 11720 6460 2006 6100 8742 5599 22630 9773 10170 12790 4389 6127 18380 17650 7488 31120 8645 4996 23350 9627 3500 9769 4667 15880 9359 14390 4209 14050 11040 33120 9377 6253 9304 10770 21390 4618 10980 21650 6157 4902 21670 6743 6912 7793 23490 34490 5615 2911 5483 24270 5227 44590 15210 15660 14770 6019 4853 5852 7383 15340 1714 5495 7632 4535 19200 5628 4797 8192 8716 11430 15050 14840 22600 7473 7889 17140 8599 5403 3516 21250 16070 20320 5229 3815 22190 16030 13450 17650 11650 18610 5585 3031 11080 5447 11530 6365 17960 8072 6467 29100 16860 5739 4917 7473 26360 25950 25060 22390 17970 8061 5888 7958 5097 8267 6513 4485 8969 8274 4131 6666 14440 29420 17470 8592 24370 6906 8318 24970 6199 5353 11540 6456 10800 6720 12390
2021-05-23 7327 5954 2931 3211 8589 5971 15720 8359 9699 9830 11860 3884 23730 30690 19860 17720 8275 8256 8321 14290 22780 22500 102000 7146 18950 9329 6177 29240 5058 25490 50300 10870 6836 28910 12620 14690 31060 6058 24580 9129 7205 10050 17480 13480 14810 5845 14250 7126 10160 26360 10820 7554 16200 12620 12790 9187 21130 21840 4969 8060 17500 2581 11420 3893 5931 14330 2593 38370 24090 8017 31200 8657 10410 4323 20270 3000 12680 24230 11970 27020 7019 31610 6500 4240 5313 4916 8251 6505 2885 4879 5070 18510 9002 5911 7426 29940 12480 5279 7466 5024 6879 5281 6043 11840 9653 13860 8271 43510 6416 10330 5582 22610 7456 21820 12030 13160 5225 20980 8001 7762 21120 4409 8961 7128 26990 7178 8282 5094 3667 26950 6219 5727 25340 7951 8153 7743 6836 15130 9177 6159 7808 20130 12390 35090 17440 24520 9586 64080 37220 21840 6615 6987 7579 48670 20900 12760 3772 2813 54030 8362 26220 2748 16370 2272 3358 12720 7803 12670 3293 20270 4201 1844 11670 6235 7384 24080 8495 35780 11470 11730 6466 2007 6104 8745 5601 22650 9782 10170 12800 4391 6129 18380 17660 7491 31140 8645 4997 23350 9631 3502 9773 4672 15890 9370 14390 4210 14060 11040 33120 9379 6254 9305 10780 21390 4619 10990 21660 6157 4903 21680 6749 6914 7795 23490 34500 5617 2913 5486 24280 5232 44620 15210 15660 14780 6023 4854 5852 7386 15350 1717 5500 7636 4536 19220 5632 4801 8194 8718 11430 15050 14840 22610 7475 7891 17140 8600 5405 3523 21260 16080 20330 5231 3817 22200 16030 13450 17650 11660 18610 5587 3033 11090 5449 11530 6367 17960 8073 6468 29110 16880 5741 4919 7474 26390 25960 25070 22400 17970 8065 5889 7960 5105 8268 6521 4487 8972 8284 4132 6672 14440 29440 17480 8596 24370 6907 8322 24980 6208 5354 11550 6457 10800 6723 12400
2021-05-24 7333 5961 2933 3216 8595 5972 15730 8359 9703 9832 11860 3886 23730 30700 19870 17720 8278 8259 8327 14340 22790 22500 102100 7146 19000 9333 6177 29420 5063 25500 50340 10870 6839 28920 12620 14700 31090 6060 24590 9130 7208 10060 17490 13480 14820 5847 14250 7128 10160 26360 10830 7562 16210 12620 12800 9190 21140 21840 4970 8064 17520 2589 11420 3893 5935 14340 2593 38390 24100 8018 31210 8661 10410 4326 20270 3000 12700 24240 11970 27030 7023 31620 6507 4242 5326 4917 8253 6509 2887 4884 5086 18520 9003 5914 7428 29950 12490 5279 7480 5025 6887 5282 6047 11860 9654 13860 8275 43620 6418 10330 5583 22620 7458 21820 12030 13160 5228 20980 8004 7765 21120 4412 8963 7130 27000 7183 8284 5101 3670 26970 6220 5729 25360 7952 8160 7745 6837 15140 9181 6164 7809 20140 12390 35150 17440 24540 9590 64150 37250 21850 6616 6993 7583 48670 20910 12770 3773 2815 54090 8364 26230 2750 16370 2274 3360 12730 7805 12680 3297 20280 4202 1853 11670 6238 7387 24100 8496 35790 11470 11730 6473 2008 6105 8748 5602 22680 9790 10170 12820 4392 6134 18390 17660 7493 31150 8646 4998 23370 9634 3503 9779 4678 15900 9380 14400 4211 14070 11050 33130 9381 6256 9307 10790 21390 4620 11000 21670 6157 4904 21680 6754 6916 7798 23500 34510 5618 2915 5488 24300 5236 44650 15220 15660 14780 6025 4855 5853 7389 15350 1719 5504 7640 4537 19240 5634 4804 8196 8719 11440 15060 14840 22610 7477 7893 17150 8602 5408 3530 21270 16080 20330 5231 3819 22200 16030 13450 17660 11670 18620 5589 3034 11090 5451 11540 6370 17970 8076 6469 29110 16890 5741 4920 7475 26400 25960 25070 22410 17980 8070 5889 7962 5109 8269 6530 4490 8974 8293 4134 6679 14440 29450 17480 8598 24380 6909 8325 24980 6218 5354 11550 6459 10800 6725 12410

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-18 to 2021-05-24

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarmarthenshireCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChichesterChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterConwyCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCrawleyCroydonDacorumDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDudleyDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast SuffolkEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHackneyHaltonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth RibbleSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTest ValleyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorfaenTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreYork
2021-05-17 7281 5926 2923 3180 8534 5965 15692 8321 9685 9819 11818 3873 23695 30637 19743 17691 8248 8237 8291 13987 22730 22471 101832 7121 18680 9303 6176 28147 5039 25435 50116 10843 6806 28839 12613 14657 30972 6048 24502 9126 7202 10035 17418 13470 14746 5832 14214 7119 10143 26323 10811 7515 16168 12575 12743 9162 21082 21810 4942 8041 17389 2537 11394 3889 5905 14278 2585 38236 24007 7992 31157 8620 10393 4299 20229 2996 12578 24041 11927 26970 6993 31508 6452 4223 5282 4897 8229 6482 2876 4866 4972 18440 8945 5894 7403 29907 12472 5273 7346 5011 6832 5274 6011 11737 9645 13834 8258 42916 6408 10309 5552 22571 7429 21782 11997 13131 5196 20945 7979 7724 21055 4396 8949 7109 26959 7128 8271 5072 3642 26874 6202 5720 25260 7921 8063 7724 6825 15098 9136 6138 7743 20011 12378 34954 17414 24426 9537 63732 37119 21806 6608 6956 7559 48595 20841 12737 3768 2808 53796 8336 26185 2737 16336 2262 3348 12669 7776 12624 3286 20232 4198 1768 11666 6216 7369 23959 8479 35736 11435 11672 6440 1998 6073 8724 5582 22521 9692 10132 12688 4380 6117 18340 17612 7465 30979 8639 4989 23306 9590 3490 9754 4646 15823 9282 14366 4202 14021 11025 33078 9363 6242 9290 10752 21378 4612 10946 21591 6156 4894 21596 6703 6905 7782 23470 34411 5603 2904 5456 24195 5192 44401 15146 15640 14749 6003 4848 5841 7361 15295 1700 5462 7600 4530 19137 5593 4774 8178 8696 11416 14969 14820 22568 7457 7877 17127 8587 5385 3479 21198 16036 20269 5210 3802 22170 16010 13429 17637 11594 18567 5571 3021 11042 5426 11510 6354 17935 8068 6461 29041 16819 5722 4906 7468 26141 25907 25038 22354 17929 8037 5874 7941 5066 8258 6495 4465 8963 8230 4121 6631 14384 29372 17387 8555 24331 6899 8299 24920 6155 5342 11530 6450 10781 6705 12339
2021-05-18 7289 5932 2924 3185 8541 5966 15700 8324 9686 9819 11820 3874 23700 30640 19760 17690 8249 8239 8293 14030 22740 22480 101800 7123 18720 9306 6177 28310 5042 25440 50150 10840 6809 28840 12610 14660 30980 6048 24510 9128 7205 10040 17430 13470 14760 5834 14220 7120 10150 26340 10810 7524 16180 12580 12740 9163 21090 21810 4942 8045 17410 2545 11400 3890 5906 14280 2586 38240 24020 7993 31170 8622 10400 4301 20230 2997 12600 24050 11930 26980 6998 31520 6458 4224 5290 4900 8230 6484 2878 4866 4988 18450 8948 5893 7405 29910 12470 5274 7353 5012 6840 5274 6016 11760 9646 13840 8263 43030 6408 10310 5552 22580 7431 21790 12000 13140 5199 20950 7980 7726 21060 4398 8950 7110 26960 7130 8274 5076 3646 26890 6204 5720 25280 7922 8067 7725 6826 15100 9139 6138 7745 20020 12380 34980 17420 24440 9541 63760 37130 21810 6609 6958 7563 48600 20850 12740 3768 2809 53820 8335 26190 2739 16340 2263 3351 12680 7779 12630 3293 20240 4199 1778 11670 6218 7372 23980 8479 35740 11440 11680 6446 2000 6074 8726 5584 22550 9700 10130 12700 4381 6119 18340 17620 7467 30990 8641 4991 23310 9590 3491 9757 4651 15830 9284 14370 4203 14030 11030 33090 9365 6245 9291 10760 21380 4613 10950 21590 6160 4895 21600 6707 6908 7785 23470 34410 5604 2906 5457 24200 5197 44420 15150 15640 14750 6005 4850 5841 7362 15300 1702 5466 7601 4532 19160 5596 4777 8181 8697 11420 14980 14820 22570 7459 7880 17130 8589 5387 3485 21210 16040 20280 5211 3803 22170 16010 13430 17640 11600 18570 5572 3022 11040 5428 11510 6357 17940 8070 6462 29050 16830 5722 4908 7469 26150 25910 25040 22360 17930 8042 5873 7942 5071 8259 6501 4468 8963 8238 4122 6630 14390 29380 17400 8558 24340 6900 8304 24920 6161 5343 11530 6451 10780 6707 12340
2021-05-19 7297 5939 2925 3188 8550 5967 15700 8326 9687 9820 11820 3875 23700 30650 19780 17690 8251 8241 8294 14070 22750 22480 101900 7126 18750 9311 6177 28440 5046 25450 50180 10840 6810 28850 12620 14660 30990 6048 24520 9128 7207 10040 17440 13470 14770 5836 14230 7121 10150 26340 10820 7532 16180 12580 12750 9165 21090 21820 4944 8046 17430 2548 11400 3890 5910 14290 2587 38260 24020 7995 31180 8625 10400 4303 20230 2997 12620 24060 11930 26980 7004 31540 6467 4224 5301 4902 8231 6487 2880 4867 5001 18450 8953 5895 7407 29920 12480 5274 7369 5014 6850 5275 6020 11780 9648 13840 8264 43130 6408 10310 5554 22580 7432 21790 12000 13140 5203 20960 7982 7728 21070 4401 8952 7111 26960 7136 8276 5081 3651 26900 6207 5722 25300 7926 8073 7727 6828 15110 9146 6141 7747 20020 12390 35020 17420 24450 9544 63820 37140 21820 6610 6964 7566 48610 20860 12740 3769 2809 53860 8338 26190 2741 16350 2265 3352 12690 7782 12640 3298 20240 4200 1792 11670 6221 7372 24000 8480 35750 11450 11690 6453 2002 6075 8727 5586 22580 9712 10140 12710 4383 6120 18350 17620 7471 31010 8644 4992 23320 9594 3493 9759 4658 15830 9289 14370 4204 14030 11030 33090 9367 6247 9293 10780 21380 4614 10950 21610 6161 4895 21610 6710 6909 7786 23480 34420 5606 2908 5461 24220 5203 44460 15160 15640 14760 6007 4851 5843 7363 15300 1705 5472 7604 4533 19180 5598 4781 8184 8698 11420 14980 14830 22580 7460 7881 17130 8590 5388 3489 21220 16050 20280 5214 3806 22170 16020 13430 17640 11600 18580 5574 3024 11050 5430 11510 6359 17940 8071 6463 29050 16830 5722 4910 7470 26160 25920 25050 22360 17930 8046 5874 7942 5073 8260 6501 4473 8964 8250 4123 6633 14400 29390 17400 8560 24340 6902 8306 24930 6165 5344 11530 6451 10780 6710 12350
2021-05-20 7305 5949 2926 3192 8558 5969 15700 8328 9687 9821 11830 3875 23710 30660 19790 17700 8252 8244 8297 14100 22760 22480 101900 7128 18780 9315 6177 28550 5048 25450 50210 10850 6811 28860 12620 14660 31000 6049 24530 9129 7209 10050 17450 13480 14780 5838 14230 7122 10150 26350 10820 7540 16190 12580 12750 9166 21100 21820 4945 8050 17460 2552 11400 3891 5913 14290 2588 38270 24030 7996 31190 8627 10400 4304 20240 2997 12640 24080 11940 26990 7010 31550 6477 4225 5308 4903 8231 6491 2883 4869 5012 18460 8958 5898 7409 29920 12480 5275 7385 5015 6859 5275 6023 11800 9649 13850 8266 43230 6409 10310 5556 22590 7434 21800 12000 13150 5207 20960 7983 7732 21080 4403 8953 7112 26970 7142 8279 5086 3656 26920 6209 5723 25310 7929 8077 7729 6829 15110 9151 6144 7750 20030 12390 35060 17420 24460 9547 63880 37170 21820 6611 6969 7568 48610 20870 12740 3770 2811 53900 8342 26200 2742 16350 2266 3354 12700 7784 12650 3306 20250 4201 1803 11670 6222 7373 24020 8481 35750 11450 11700 6461 2004 6076 8728 5588 22600 9722 10140 12720 4385 6120 18350 17630 7474 31030 8645 4993 23330 9598 3495 9761 4664 15840 9292 14370 4204 14040 11040 33100 9369 6248 9294 10790 21380 4615 10950 21620 6163 4896 21630 6712 6910 7788 23490 34420 5607 2910 5463 24230 5209 44490 15160 15650 14760 6008 4852 5845 7365 15310 1707 5477 7608 4533 19210 5601 4785 8186 8698 11420 14990 14830 22580 7460 7883 17130 8592 5389 3494 21230 16050 20290 5216 3808 22170 16020 13440 17640 11610 18590 5576 3024 11050 5432 11520 6361 17940 8072 6463 29060 16840 5724 4911 7471 26170 25920 25050 22370 17940 8051 5874 7943 5076 8261 6508 4476 8965 8262 4124 6638 14410 29400 17410 8562 24340 6902 8308 24930 6170 5345 11540 6452 10790 6712 12350
2021-05-21 7315 5956 2927 3196 8565 5970 15710 8330 9689 9822 11830 3876 23710 30660 19800 17700 8253 8246 8299 14140 22760 22480 101900 7130 18820 9319 6177 28680 5052 25460 50240 10850 6812 28870 12620 14670 31010 6049 24540 9129 7212 10050 17450 13480 14790 5840 14230 7122 10160 26360 10820 7548 16200 12580 12750 9167 21110 21820 4946 8055 17490 2557 11400 3892 5916 14290 2589 38270 24040 7998 31200 8628 10400 4305 20240 2998 12650 24090 11940 27000 7017 31560 6485 4225 5317 4904 8232 6494 2885 4870 5025 18470 8961 5901 7411 29930 12480 5275 7399 5016 6869 5276 6026 11820 9650 13850 8267 43340 6409 10310 5557 22590 7435 21800 12000 13150 5210 20960 7984 7735 21080 4406 8954 7113 26970 7149 8281 5091 3661 26930 6211 5723 25330 7932 8080 7730 6830 15120 9155 6146 7751 20030 12400 35090 17420 24460 9548 63930 37190 21830 6611 6973 7571 48620 20870 12740 3770 2812 53930 8344 26200 2744 16350 2267 3356 12700 7786 12650 3311 20250 4201 1814 11670 6224 7374 24030 8482 35750 11460 11710 6469 2005 6077 8729 5590 22630 9730 10140 12730 4386 6121 18360 17630 7476 31040 8647 4995 23330 9601 3496 9764 4671 15840 9296 14380 4205 14050 11040 33110 9370 6249 9295 10800 21380 4616 10950 21640 6164 4897 21640 6715 6911 7791 23500 34430 5608 2913 5465 24240 5213 44520 15160 15650 14760 6009 4852 5845 7365 15310 1708 5482 7610 4534 19230 5602 4789 8188 8700 11430 15000 14830 22590 7461 7884 17140 8594 5390 3499 21240 16060 20290 5218 3810 22170 16020 13440 17650 11610 18590 5577 3025 11050 5433 11520 6364 17940 8073 6464 29060 16840 5724 4912 7473 26180 25920 25060 22380 17940 8055 5875 7943 5077 8262 6513 4481 8965 8274 4125 6640 14410 29400 17410 8563 24340 6903 8310 24930 6173 5346 11540 6452 10790 6715 12360
2021-05-22 7324 5966 2928 3199 8571 5971 15710 8331 9691 9823 11830 3877 23710 30670 19810 17700 8254 8248 8301 14170 22770 22480 101900 7131 18850 9323 6178 28810 5054 25460 50270 10850 6813 28880 12620 14670 31020 6049 24540 9130 7214 10060 17460 13480 14800 5842 14240 7123 10160 26360 10820 7556 16200 12580 12750 9167 21120 21830 4947 8059 17510 2561 11410 3893 5920 14290 2589 38280 24040 7999 31210 8629 10400 4305 20240 2998 12670 24100 11940 27000 7023 31580 6492 4225 5321 4905 8232 6498 2888 4872 5037 18470 8964 5903 7412 29930 12480 5276 7418 5017 6880 5276 6028 11840 9651 13850 8269 43430 6409 10310 5559 22600 7435 21800 12000 13150 5213 20970 7985 7738 21090 4409 8955 7114 26970 7153 8282 5095 3665 26950 6212 5724 25350 7934 8086 7731 6831 15120 9158 6149 7753 20030 12400 35120 17420 24470 9548 63970 37200 21830 6612 6977 7573 48620 20880 12740 3771 2812 53960 8346 26200 2745 16350 2267 3357 12710 7787 12660 3317 20260 4202 1823 11670 6225 7375 24050 8483 35760 11470 11710 6477 2006 6078 8730 5591 22660 9738 10140 12740 4387 6121 18360 17630 7479 31060 8647 4996 23340 9603 3498 9766 4678 15850 9301 14380 4205 14050 11040 33110 9372 6250 9296 10810 21390 4618 10950 21650 6166 4897 21640 6717 6913 7793 23500 34430 5609 2915 5467 24250 5218 44550 15170 15650 14770 6010 4853 5847 7366 15310 1710 5487 7612 4534 19260 5603 4792 8190 8700 11430 15000 14830 22590 7462 7886 17140 8595 5391 3505 21250 16060 20300 5219 3812 22180 16020 13440 17650 11620 18600 5578 3025 11050 5434 11520 6366 17940 8075 6464 29070 16850 5726 4913 7474 26190 25930 25060 22380 17940 8059 5876 7944 5079 8263 6519 4485 8965 8284 4125 6645 14420 29410 17410 8563 24350 6904 8311 24930 6177 5346 11540 6452 10790 6717 12360
2021-05-23 7333 5973 2929 3203 8578 5972 15720 8332 9694 9825 11830 3877 23720 30680 19820 17700 8254 8250 8305 14200 22780 22490 101900 7132 18880 9327 6178 28940 5058 25460 50300 10850 6814 28890 12620 14670 31040 6050 24550 9130 7217 10060 17470 13480 14810 5844 14240 7124 10160 26370 10820 7564 16210 12580 12750 9168 21120 21830 4949 8062 17530 2566 11410 3894 5923 14300 2590 38290 24050 8000 31220 8630 10400 4306 20250 2998 12690 24110 11940 27010 7029 31600 6502 4226 5326 4906 8233 6500 2890 4874 5049 18480 8966 5905 7413 29940 12480 5276 7429 5018 6889 5278 6031 11860 9652 13850 8270 43520 6410 10320 5561 22600 7436 21810 12000 13160 5216 20970 7986 7742 21090 4411 8956 7115 26970 7158 8284 5100 3670 26960 6214 5724 25360 7936 8092 7732 6832 15120 9163 6151 7755 20040 12410 35160 17420 24480 9549 64020 37220 21840 6613 6982 7575 48630 20880 12750 3771 2813 54000 8350 26200 2747 16360 2268 3359 12720 7789 12670 3323 20260 4203 1834 11670 6226 7376 24070 8483 35760 11470 11720 6485 2006 6079 8731 5592 22690 9745 10140 12750 4388 6122 18370 17640 7481 31070 8648 4997 23340 9606 3499 9768 4683 15860 9305 14380 4206 14060 11050 33120 9373 6251 9297 10820 21390 4619 10960 21660 6167 4897 21650 6719 6914 7794 23510 34440 5610 2917 5470 24270 5222 44580 15170 15660 14770 6011 4854 5848 7368 15310 1712 5493 7615 4536 19280 5604 4796 8192 8700 11430 15010 14840 22590 7463 7888 17140 8596 5392 3510 21260 16070 20300 5219 3815 22180 16030 13440 17650 11620 18610 5580 3025 11060 5435 11520 6368 17940 8076 6464 29070 16850 5726 4915 7475 26210 25930 25060 22390 17940 8064 5878 7944 5081 8264 6524 4489 8967 8297 4126 6652 14430 29420 17410 8564 24350 6905 8313 24940 6180 5347 11540 6453 10790 6719 12370
2021-05-24 7342 5980 2930 3207 8584 5973 15720 8333 9696 9827 11830 3878 23720 30680 19830 17700 8254 8253 8308 14240 22780 22490 102000 7133 18910 9331 6178 29080 5063 25470 50320 10850 6816 28910 12620 14680 31050 6051 24550 9131 7220 10070 17480 13480 14820 5845 14240 7125 10170 26380 10820 7572 16220 12580 12750 9169 21130 21830 4950 8067 17560 2571 11410 3894 5928 14300 2591 38300 24060 8002 31230 8632 10400 4307 20250 2998 12710 24110 11940 27020 7036 31620 6511 4226 5335 4906 8233 6503 2893 4878 5063 18480 8968 5910 7414 29950 12480 5277 7444 5018 6899 5278 6033 11890 9653 13860 8272 43630 6412 10320 5563 22610 7437 21810 12010 13160 5219 20980 7986 7745 21100 4415 8956 7116 26970 7163 8286 5105 3675 26970 6216 5726 25380 7939 8096 7733 6833 15130 9167 6155 7757 20040 12410 35200 17430 24490 9551 64090 37250 21840 6613 6987 7577 48630 20890 12750 3772 2814 54050 8354 26200 2748 16360 2269 3361 12730 7790 12670 3330 20260 4204 1844 11670 6227 7377 24090 8484 35770 11480 11730 6494 2007 6080 8732 5593 22720 9752 10140 12760 4389 6123 18370 17640 7483 31090 8649 4998 23350 9610 3501 9771 4690 15860 9309 14380 4206 14060 11050 33120 9375 6252 9299 10830 21390 4620 10960 21670 6169 4898 21670 6722 6916 7797 23520 34440 5610 2920 5474 24280 5227 44620 15170 15660 14770 6012 4855 5849 7369 15320 1713 5499 7619 4536 19310 5605 4799 8194 8701 11430 15010 14840 22600 7463 7889 17150 8598 5393 3516 21270 16070 20300 5221 3817 22180 16030 13440 17650 11620 18620 5580 3026 11060 5436 11520 6370 17940 8077 6465 29070 16860 5727 4916 7476 26210 25940 25070 22400 17940 8068 5880 7945 5083 8265 6531 4493 8968 8309 4127 6659 14430 29430 17420 8565 24350 6905 8316 24940 6185 5347 11540 6453 10790 6722 12370

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.