COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-05-22 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-05-22

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-05-22

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2812-2712-2712-2612-2712-262021-03-2512-2707-212021-03-2512-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1112-302021-05-0212-2612-2212-2912-2712-2712-2912-072021-01-072021-05-0911-132021-01-0112-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2812-3012-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-2110-2812-3012-2212-2812-2512-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-3010-042021-01-0412-262021-01-0512-2912-2612-2712-2912-2411-0212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-282021-01-022021-02-2512-2110-1412-2712-0712-2612-2210-0412-2707-2112-2412-2910-0412-2412-2111-0912-0612-2607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-0609-2712-2712-2312-2712-2212-2812-2512-1812-252021-01-0412-2612-2610-0412-2112-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-2712-2812-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-2212-2912-2812-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0112-2112-2812-2112-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2110-2712-2712-292021-01-0611-022021-01-0312-2112-2712-2711-0212-2112-262021-04-0312-2212-2112-3112-292021-01-0212-2211-012021-01-0712-0812-2112-2112-2112-2212-212021-03-2512-3107-2112-2212-2712-0607-212021-03-1812-2812-292021-01-0311-0312-2712-0612-2707-2112-0812-2710-2612-2612-2110-0411-0112-2112-2911-0412-212021-01-0412-2712-212021-01-0112-2912-2911-0212-2807-2112-2712-2812-2612-272021-01-062021-01-062021-01-0112-062021-01-0412-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2210-0412-0612-2812-2112-2712-2812-1012-3112-1310-1812-3012-2812-2712-252021-01-262021-01-0212-2912-292021-01-0312-2312-2112-3112-2912-2211-0207-2112-3012-2512-2512-2112-2912-2112-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0910-0412-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-2712-2211-0712-2812-2711-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2512-292021-01-0212-2612-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-1912-2212-2312-2712-0611-1312-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-2012-1310-0411-0212-0710-0412-2212-2312-2212-2712-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-2512-3112-2112-3012-2611-02
Peak daily increment 92 102 61 88 97 40 77 73 119 106 170 110 171 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 128 110 108 27 252 426 1250 75 157 65 95 58 215 50 484 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 320 107 508 94 186 62 122 123 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 107 303 40 90 268 52 197 249 283 59 91 71 65 266 20 243 5 35 53 94 285 34 553 288 38 181 598 151 69 189 72 58 246 27 170 248 187 118 322 119 87 536 308 60 52 71 76 160 106 25 51 235 204 102 163 147 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 80 69 90 73 94 119 150 125 54 38 122 82 597 92 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 219 59 201 57 401 172 103 338 101 106 136 120 476 101 159 52 76 442 57 116 452 143 83 74 134 18 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 311 428 107 1449 284 104 456 71 230 102 727 27 200 90 36 368 92 419 25 46 106 298 37 62 153 186 27 213 302 361 79 62 66 23 105 63 122 85 723 190 212 192 23 50 137 105 51 394 105 58 122 107 41 55 277 158 121 224 90 68 123 3 125 44 108 58 154 120 207 43 102 174 623 105 81 176 151 286 52 188 39 132 139 56 96 198 80 85 59 174 36 25 162 450 42 83 82 403 65 131 573 25 209 244 167 97 42 111 102 69 181 27 42 86 72 448 95 79 108 80 66 102 115 247 293 450 131 156 219 94 55 112 26 189 138 197 66 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 123 56 109 46 141 352 90 44 138 122 360 139 51 101 14 559 151 90 110 120 84 250 329 449 390 227 259 138 117 160 65 154 87 29 78 166 42 65 67 115 217 217 265 83 148 430 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 594
Days since peak 145 146 146 147 146 147 58 146 305 58 152 146 165 152 150 145 150 221 146 150 140 131 143 20 147 151 144 146 146 144 166 135 13 190 141 152 210 151 146 146 159 167 145 143 148 152 147 151 143 143 146 166 206 152 146 147 165 167 146 165 152 151 152 206 143 151 145 148 151 152 139 152 152 143 230 138 147 137 144 147 146 144 149 201 146 145 146 146 152 148 152 152 145 140 86 152 220 146 166 147 151 230 146 305 149 144 230 149 152 194 167 147 305 203 146 143 145 152 147 151 148 152 151 136 237 146 150 146 151 145 148 155 148 138 147 147 230 152 145 152 152 146 152 137 151 146 145 152 152 152 145 146 145 152 150 160 146 160 144 151 144 145 145 143 151 147 152 141 152 145 152 146 151 145 145 148 202 152 207 146 144 136 201 139 152 146 146 201 152 147 49 151 152 142 144 140 151 202 135 165 152 152 152 151 152 58 142 305 151 146 167 305 65 145 144 139 200 146 167 146 305 165 146 208 147 152 230 202 152 144 199 152 138 146 152 141 144 144 201 145 305 146 145 147 146 136 136 141 167 138 144 152 142 137 151 230 167 145 152 146 145 163 142 160 216 143 145 146 148 116 140 144 144 139 150 152 142 144 151 201 305 143 148 148 152 144 152 152 145 147 148 138 151 194 230 152 151 153 139 145 146 151 152 159 145 147 152 148 148 207 151 196 145 146 202 152 150 151 146 152 166 171 148 144 140 147 143 138 146 152 147 152 154 151 150 146 167 190 152 146 151 147 165 152 202 146 146 158 148 201 152 151 152 146 147 153 160 230 201 166 230 151 150 151 146 144 151 151 145 146 151 146 141 145 148 142 152 143 147 201
Last total 7296 5948 2925 5057 8588 3194 8554 5968 1463 15739 8327 9701 9832 11841 3876 23709 30670 19790 4292 17699 8256 8249 8302 14231 22782 22503 102048 7132 19047 9327 6179 5980 29013 5061 25450 7123 50334 10847 6826 28908 6917 12648 14679 31029 6059 24548 6266 9137 7221 10089 17517 13484 14821 5839 14225 7122 10187 26350 8228 10819 8367 7532 16250 1789 12600 12756 3776 9173 21119 21821 6181 4946 4312 8088 17551 2598 11401 297 3895 3169 5916 14299 2594 38271 24039 2847 7997 31261 8638 7579 10407 4302 4342 20251 2998 12658 24119 11937 7874 27015 4215 7049 31616 6482 3053 4225 5345 4905 8238 6498 2899 4879 5034 18492 9687 8945 6644 5899 2998 7404 29954 12478 5282 7365 5021 6866 5280 5638 6044 11811 9654 8085 3106 4826 13857 8278 43579 6437 3887 10312 5555 22630 7435 3423 21814 12003 4227 13163 5205 20975 7984 7738 21089 4405 8953 6232 7117 26981 7148 8285 5095 3652 27006 6208 5726 25372 7927 8112 3004 7732 2313 6830 15116 9162 6158 7759 20039 12433 35302 17424 24532 9556 63958 37289 4945 21832 6616 6968 7593 48626 20907 12751 3770 2822 54085 8348 26207 2741 3488 6741 16358 2265 3359 6854 12725 7791 12653 3348 20269 4422 4213 1774 11678 6219 7388 24055 8483 35787 11445 11744 6489 2007 6080 8735 6422 5591 22608 9731 3057 10148 12759 4386 6135 18363 17625 7489 31034 8656 4993 23363 74 9600 3492 9785 4675 15860 9299 14414 4203 14082 11074 33122 9374 6248 9331 10868 21387 4626 10964 2651 21679 6439 6242 4896 21638 6709 5532 6920 7800 1680 1894 23559 34460 5610 2909 5466 24223 5215 6932 44545 236 15153 15687 14758 6008 4279 4855 5847 7365 15313 1716 5488 7626 4538 19257 5598 4780 5927 8205 5479 8703 11428 15005 14831 22594 7469 7899 17133 8594 5388 6074 3496 21246 16049 20301 5223 3809 22205 5499 16031 13434 17659 11622 18603 5430 5579 3029 11058 10015 5429 2935 11520 6366 17948 8072 4263 6465 1002 29074 16910 5727 4914 7477 5203 26236 25948 25065 22404 17939 7200 8063 5879 7945 5086 8274 6523 1191 4479 8976 4725 8254 4130 6649 14429 29498 17410 4958 8570 24342 6906 8340 24948 6187 5343 11539 6460 10798 6713 5587 12363
Last daily increment 5 1 1 0 0 4 4 2 0 7 3 1 2 3 0 1 2 7 0 3 1 3 2 33 3 4 34 0 60 3 0 1 112 4 0 3 43 1 4 16 0 10 3 13 3 8 0 1 0 13 20 2 10 1 3 0 5 3 1 2 1 3 13 0 4 1 0 1 4 2 2 0 1 6 24 14 1 0 3 0 4 3 3 3 4 1 1 11 5 1 4 0 1 1 0 12 13 1 0 5 0 18 9 6 0 1 16 1 1 1 3 4 10 7 1 1 0 0 0 1 7 2 1 0 3 5 1 1 3 4 1 0 1 5 1 4 87 9 0 0 0 7 0 1 4 0 0 6 1 4 0 3 7 1 1 1 2 4 4 4 5 4 25 1 0 19 1 6 0 0 0 2 5 5 3 1 2 13 45 2 12 3 26 36 0 4 1 1 5 5 6 5 0 3 41 2 5 1 4 0 4 1 2 0 13 3 9 6 7 0 3 0 3 1 0 3 1 8 1 12 7 0 0 3 1 1 12 4 3 1 16 0 4 3 2 2 9 3 2 10 0 1 0 4 3 6 3 7 0 6 12 6 3 2 9 28 0 5 3 0 17 1 19 0 5 1 1 4 1 0 0 27 8 0 0 0 3 3 1 31 0 2 12 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 4 6 2 12 0 0 1 8 0 2 2 10 1 6 3 8 0 0 0 5 1 14 2 6 1 0 5 0 3 1 1 1 4 0 2 0 3 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 14 0 1 2 1 11 1 4 3 0 0 5 1 0 1 3 6 0 2 3 2 6 0 3 3 20 1 1 0 1 2 4 3 2 0 1 4 4 0 1 3
Last week 18 27 2 3 3 23 26 4 8 53 7 21 15 28 6 18 40 64 7 9 9 15 16 325 69 37 258 12 430 26 4 6 1110 26 22 8 274 5 25 73 4 36 28 76 11 67 4 15 23 64 113 19 92 8 18 6 53 31 5 11 5 29 99 3 29 15 3 11 49 15 8 6 9 59 188 77 7 1 7 3 13 28 9 42 46 7 9 129 21 9 15 5 3 22 4 95 97 14 5 54 3 60 135 35 4 4 78 11 10 19 25 19 90 63 11 4 7 6 0 3 54 7 8 23 12 40 8 6 41 90 11 4 6 18 28 29 788 30 9 3 5 68 8 2 36 8 4 42 10 38 8 14 50 12 5 6 9 22 23 21 29 12 151 9 9 133 6 60 3 11 6 6 24 32 21 18 36 65 424 15 128 24 269 195 6 36 10 15 43 37 77 17 3 17 333 12 28 6 4 2 20 5 12 2 78 17 32 69 48 4 18 12 15 7 25 119 4 56 20 84 56 11 8 16 9 11 103 41 8 17 101 7 25 26 21 25 62 18 5 72 0 11 2 40 33 49 23 57 2 68 63 55 11 9 46 131 11 15 25 3 107 5 95 4 51 12 3 22 23 3 0 97 60 8 7 12 40 27 13 170 0 15 50 19 9 15 11 4 5 25 19 28 28 12 137 9 9 7 32 3 10 17 42 15 30 13 25 14 9 6 13 27 59 23 46 14 9 38 5 26 11 25 35 46 4 10 11 18 4 3 3 13 20 15 8 6 5 2 35 112 7 12 10 6 119 51 35 52 17 5 33 7 7 26 17 41 2 15 16 10 32 12 24 44 139 26 5 17 16 10 50 29 50 0 11 14 17 9 5 27
Previous peak date07-2107-21 -- --10-2707-2112-2110-07 --12-21 --10-21 --10-25 -- -- -- --10-20 -- --10-2611-0212-2110-07 --11-02 --10-1310-13 --10-2510-15 --11-02 --05-0310-26 -- -- -- --10-1611-02 -- -- -- --10-1209-2710-2709-02 -- --10-01 -- -- --10-25 -- --10-10 -- --11-02 -- --10-2710-18 --10-20 -- --10-1307-2107-2110-14 -- -- -- --10-29 --04-2010-3110-31 --10-2910-17 -- -- --10-2110-2712-2810-01 --10-12 -- --07-2107-21 -- -- --11-0107-2110-27 -- --07-2110-27 -- -- --10-30 --10-20 --10-06 -- -- --10-18 --07-21 -- -- --07-21 -- -- --10-1510-2910-1107-21 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-2810-2710-14 --10-12 --10-2710-30 -- -- --10-29 -- --10-1710-2707-21 --11-01 -- -- --10-1307-21 --06-11 -- -- -- -- -- --10-13 --09-29 --10-0804-1411-02 -- --10-31 --10-1209-2812-27 -- -- --11-0210-25 -- -- -- --10-15 -- -- --10-1212-2111-03 --09-30 -- -- --12-07 -- --11-02 -- -- --09-24 -- --10-14 -- -- --07-21 -- --10-31 -- --11-0308-02 -- --11-0211-01 --10-22 -- -- -- --07-21 --11-0211-02 --11-02 -- --11-0310-26 --07-21 --10-1110-10 --10-19 --10-11 -- -- -- --10-13 -- -- --11-0211-0210-3107-21 --09-3010-25 -- -- --10-28 -- -- --07-21 -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- --07-21 -- -- --10-13 --10-24 -- -- -- -- --10-1710-0810-29 -- --07-2110-1810-12 -- -- --10-0610-31 -- -- -- --10-1811-04 -- --10-2910-1110-18 -- -- -- -- --10-26 -- -- --10-17 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-22 -- --10-22 -- -- -- -- --07-21 -- --07-21 --10-15 --10-1610-24 -- --09-3010-3010-11 --11-03 --10-1910-28 --10-17 -- --
Previous peak daily increment 616 365 80 295 134 40 260 61 40 31 75 271 233 262 1226 166 98 54 234 363 55 19 62 1197 57 72 160 31 54 39 60 294 35 120 54 62 1272 83 35 57 68 129 18 69 22 25 164 25 206 59 226 710 39 383 25 191 31 24 30 29 56 475 687 43 127 72 1766 70 33 54 60 69 57 38 22 44 144 49 59 248 45 46 153 81 75 479 56 71 480 273 2237 61 44 109 105 87 25 191 2429 91 53 1007 82 56 68 1343 64 257 230 139 354 150 88 41 459 41 46 194 65 67 406 233 81 152 189 33 104 226 66 876 66 75 20 118 77 149 184 120 129 18 172 46 89 27 17 45 144 135 23 307 376 24 319 68 141 22 25 38 54 32 67
Low between peaks 0 -1 28 0 8 18 13 26 -44 8 37 20 -12 48 303 55 29 19 13 23 27 -19 21 68 19 34 54 12 23 7 26 28 -43 -38 17 31 -11 -4 -18 12 1 39 -9 28 -31 9 53 8 34 -47 -2 -3 -13 -3 -32 -1 10 -10 8 -67 19 -4 -5 -9 24 23 -7 22 -40 23 15 -120 -7 19 -66 -54 -1 15 21 -2 0 18 21 23 6 120 21 21 58 7 114 21 -25 39 6 35 8 7 18 23 -9 -7 35 16 7 50 28 58 1 20 37 38 22 13 -2 -20 -118 62 22 16 36 92 19 -4 26 14 31 -2 24 -7 28 24 -77 30 38 -1 43 43 58 -23 32 15 31 11 7 6 -31 -27 -71 -2 -2 -25 77 -103 19 -17 -8 8 27 12 -4

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-23 to 2021-05-29

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBrecklandBrentBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarmarthenshireCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterConwyCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDerbyDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDudleyDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEastbourneEastleighEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGreenwichGuildfordHackneyHaltonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMertonMid SuffolkMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOldhamOxfordPendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreYork
2021-05-22 7296 5948 3194 8554 1463 15739 8327 9701 9832 11841 3876 23709 30670 19790 4292 17699 8256 8249 8302 14231 22782 22503 102048 7132 19047 9327 5980 29013 5061 25450 7123 50334 6826 28908 12648 14679 31029 6059 24548 9137 7221 10089 17517 13484 14821 5839 14225 7122 10187 26350 10819 7532 16250 12600 12756 9173 21119 21821 6181 4946 4312 8088 17551 2598 11401 3895 5916 14299 2594 38271 24039 2847 7997 31261 8638 7579 10407 20251 12658 24119 11937 27015 7049 31616 6482 5345 4905 8238 6498 2899 4879 5034 18492 9687 6644 5899 29954 12478 5282 7365 5021 6866 5280 5638 6044 11811 9654 3106 4826 13857 8278 43579 6437 3887 22630 7435 21814 12003 13163 5205 20975 7984 7738 21089 4405 6232 7117 26981 7148 8285 5095 3652 27006 6208 5726 25372 7927 8112 7732 2313 6830 15116 9162 6158 7759 20039 12433 35302 17424 24532 9556 63958 37289 4945 21832 6616 6968 7593 48626 20907 12751 2822 54085 8348 26207 2741 16358 3359 12725 7791 12653 3348 20269 4213 1774 11678 6219 7388 24055 35787 11445 11744 6489 2007 6080 8735 6422 5591 22608 9731 3057 10148 12759 4386 6135 18363 17625 7489 31034 8656 23363 9600 9785 4675 15860 9299 14414 14082 11074 33122 9374 6248 9331 10868 21387 4626 10964 21679 6242 21638 6709 6920 7800 23559 34460 5610 2909 5466 24223 5215 6932 44545 15153 15687 14758 6008 4279 4855 15313 1716 5488 7626 4538 19257 5598 4780 5927 8205 8703 11428 15005 14831 22594 7469 7899 17133 8594 5388 6074 3496 21246 16049 20301 5223 3809 22205 16031 13434 17659 11622 18603 5579 3029 11058 11520 6366 17948 8072 4263 29074 16910 5727 4914 7477 5203 26236 25948 25065 22404 17939 8063 5879 7945 5086 8274 6523 4479 8976 4725 8254 4130 6649 14429 29498 17410 8570 24342 6906 8340 24948 6187 11539 6460 10798 6713 12363
2021-05-23 7308 5954 3197 8556 1464 15750 8337 9703 9832 11840 3877 23720 30680 19800 4293 17700 8257 8252 8305 14280 22790 22510 102000 7134 19120 9331 5981 29130 5064 25460 7128 50330 6826 28920 12660 14690 31030 6059 24560 9138 7225 10090 17520 13480 14820 5841 14230 7123 10190 26360 10820 7538 16260 12600 12760 9176 21130 21830 6183 4948 4313 8091 17550 2609 11400 3896 5922 14300 2595 38280 24060 2848 8000 31280 8641 7585 10410 20260 12680 24150 11950 27020 7060 31620 6487 5345 4905 8239 6502 2902 4880 5044 18500 9689 6644 5904 29950 12480 5283 7374 5022 6873 5280 5648 6049 11830 9655 3106 4828 13860 8282 43660 6438 3887 22640 7437 21820 12010 13170 5208 20980 7988 7742 21100 4408 6234 7120 26980 7152 8286 5100 3654 27020 6209 5727 25380 7938 8112 7737 2314 6831 15120 9167 6161 7771 20060 12440 35350 17430 24550 9567 64010 37290 4946 21840 6616 6974 7597 48630 20920 12750 2823 54090 8358 26210 2742 16360 3361 12730 7792 12660 3356 20270 4217 1779 11680 6224 7391 24080 35790 11460 11760 6496 2007 6085 8738 6424 5592 22630 9737 3058 10150 12780 4387 6136 18380 17640 7492 31050 8664 23360 9601 9790 4680 15870 9316 14410 14080 11080 33130 9377 6249 9335 10890 21390 4628 10970 21680 6262 21650 6715 6922 7803 23560 34470 5611 2910 5473 24260 5220 6933 44590 15170 15690 14760 6012 4282 4856 15320 1718 5496 7626 4539 19270 5601 4782 5930 8208 8704 11430 15020 14830 22600 7470 7900 17140 8596 5390 6075 3500 21260 16060 20310 5223 3811 22210 16030 13440 17660 11620 18610 5580 3030 11060 11530 6368 17950 8073 4264 29080 16910 5727 4916 7478 5206 26250 25950 25070 22410 17940 8068 5881 7947 5090 8274 6526 4479 8978 4727 8262 4130 6653 14440 29530 17430 8573 24350 6906 8342 24960 6192 11540 6461 10800 6715 12370
2021-05-24 7317 5960 3197 8560 1465 15750 8343 9705 9834 11850 3879 23720 30690 19830 4293 17710 8259 8255 8308 14340 22800 22510 102100 7138 19180 9338 5982 29290 5067 25480 7131 50370 6830 28930 12660 14690 31040 6060 24560 9138 7227 10090 17540 13490 14830 5847 14240 7125 10190 26370 10820 7553 16260 12610 12770 9180 21140 21840 6186 4953 4315 8091 17560 2622 11410 3896 5928 14310 2595 38310 24080 2848 8005 31280 8644 7589 10410 20280 12700 24180 11950 27030 7067 31650 6493 5349 4908 8239 6507 2905 4885 5054 18520 9694 6645 5909 29960 12480 5283 7417 5022 6881 5281 5652 6052 11850 9656 3106 4828 13860 8285 43780 6442 3888 22640 7441 21820 12010 13170 5217 20990 7992 7748 21110 4412 6237 7125 26990 7161 8287 5103 3657 27030 6214 5728 25400 7944 8118 7744 2314 6833 15130 9174 6166 7781 20080 12440 35420 17430 24570 9578 64090 37310 4947 21850 6617 6981 7597 48640 20930 12750 2823 54120 8363 26210 2746 16370 3363 12740 7793 12670 3356 20280 4220 1804 11680 6228 7394 24100 35790 11470 11760 6502 2007 6090 8741 6426 5596 22650 9754 3059 10160 12800 4390 6136 18390 17650 7494 31070 8670 23370 9601 9790 4683 15880 9331 14420 14090 11080 33130 9380 6250 9335 10900 21390 4628 10970 21690 6278 21670 6726 6922 7806 23560 34480 5612 2911 5479 24280 5230 6934 44640 15180 15690 14770 6016 4286 4857 15330 1720 5501 7629 4539 19270 5609 4791 5935 8208 8707 11430 15040 14840 22610 7471 7900 17150 8600 5394 6076 3502 21270 16070 20320 5223 3815 22210 16040 13440 17660 11630 18620 5581 3031 11070 11530 6371 17950 8073 4267 29090 16910 5729 4919 7479 5209 26280 25960 25070 22420 17950 8074 5883 7950 5096 8274 6535 4481 8978 4730 8272 4131 6665 14440 29560 17440 8580 24350 6908 8342 24970 6198 11540 6461 10800 6720 12370
2021-05-25 7324 5966 3198 8564 1465 15760 8347 9706 9836 11850 3880 23730 30700 19840 4294 17710 8260 8258 8311 14400 22810 22510 102100 7141 19250 9343 5983 29450 5071 25480 7133 50400 6832 28940 12670 14700 31040 6060 24560 9138 7228 10100 17550 13490 14850 5852 14250 7125 10190 26390 10830 7564 16260 12610 12770 9184 21140 21850 6188 4956 4316 8091 17580 2633 11410 3896 5930 14310 2595 38320 24100 2849 8009 31280 8647 7594 10410 20280 12720 24200 11950 27040 7074 31670 6499 5351 4909 8240 6512 2909 4885 5065 18530 9695 6646 5910 29970 12490 5284 7445 5022 6889 5281 5654 6057 11880 9657 3107 4828 13860 8288 43920 6447 3889 22650 7444 21830 12020 13170 5224 20990 7993 7753 21120 4416 6238 7128 26990 7168 8289 5107 3660 27030 6217 5729 25410 7948 8121 7747 2314 6834 15130 9179 6170 7788 20090 12440 35480 17430 24580 9584 64140 37320 4948 21850 6618 6985 7599 48650 20940 12760 2823 54180 8365 26210 2749 16370 3365 12750 7793 12680 3356 20280 4223 1820 11680 6229 7396 24120 35800 11470 11770 6510 2007 6094 8743 6429 5599 22670 9765 3061 10160 12810 4392 6136 18400 17660 7496 31100 8678 23380 9601 9793 4687 15890 9342 14420 14100 11080 33140 9384 6251 9335 10920 21400 4628 10980 21700 6295 21690 6734 6924 7809 23580 34490 5613 2913 5482 24290 5237 6935 44670 15190 15700 14770 6018 4290 4858 15330 1722 5505 7634 4539 19270 5615 4797 5938 8208 8708 11440 15060 14840 22610 7473 7900 17150 8603 5397 6076 3505 21280 16080 20330 5223 3818 22210 16040 13440 17670 11630 18630 5582 3032 11070 11540 6373 17960 8074 4269 29100 16920 5729 4922 7481 5212 26300 25960 25080 22420 17960 8079 5884 7952 5102 8277 6540 4484 8978 4732 8281 4131 6673 14450 29590 17460 8585 24350 6908 8342 24970 6204 11550 6461 10810 6723 12380
2021-05-26 7331 5972 3200 8566 1466 15760 8351 9711 9838 11860 3881 23730 30710 19860 4295 17710 8261 8261 8313 14450 22820 22520 102100 7144 19320 9348 5983 29570 5074 25490 7136 50440 6833 28950 12670 14700 31060 6060 24570 9138 7233 10100 17570 13490 14860 5855 14250 7125 10190 26400 10830 7573 16270 12610 12770 9187 21150 21850 6190 4959 4318 8091 17610 2644 11420 3897 5934 14310 2596 38340 24110 2849 8012 31290 8650 7596 10410 20290 12740 24220 11960 27050 7082 31690 6505 5360 4913 8241 6515 2912 4888 5076 18540 9698 6646 5912 29970 12490 5285 7464 5023 6897 5281 5657 6061 11890 9659 3108 4828 13860 8292 44040 6454 3889 22650 7446 21830 12020 13180 5228 21000 7997 7759 21130 4419 6238 7131 26990 7173 8291 5112 3662 27050 6219 5730 25440 7951 8130 7751 2315 6835 15140 9184 6173 7794 20100 12440 35540 17440 24600 9592 64210 37340 4949 21860 6619 6991 7602 48660 20940 12760 2823 54230 8369 26220 2751 16370 3368 12750 7794 12690 3356 20290 4226 1831 11680 6233 7399 24140 35810 11480 11780 6518 2007 6097 8746 6430 5601 22700 9774 3062 10170 12830 4393 6136 18410 17660 7498 31120 8683 23390 9602 9796 4693 15900 9348 14430 14110 11080 33140 9386 6253 9335 10940 21400 4628 10980 21720 6310 21700 6740 6925 7812 23590 34500 5614 2915 5486 24300 5243 6936 44700 15200 15710 14780 6019 4293 4860 15340 1724 5512 7639 4540 19280 5619 4801 5941 8208 8710 11440 15070 14840 22620 7473 7900 17150 8605 5400 6078 3509 21290 16080 20340 5224 3820 22220 16040 13450 17670 11640 18640 5583 3034 11070 11540 6376 17960 8074 4270 29110 16930 5731 4924 7482 5214 26320 25970 25080 22430 17960 8083 5884 7954 5106 8278 6543 4486 8979 4734 8290 4132 6680 14460 29620 17470 8589 24350 6908 8342 24980 6209 11550 6461 10810 6726 12390
2021-05-27 7336 5982 3202 8568 1467 15770 8356 9712 9840 11860 3882 23730 30710 19870 4295 17710 8262 8263 8316 14500 22830 22520 102100 7147 19380 9353 5984 29680 5079 25500 7138 50470 6835 28960 12680 14710 31080 6060 24570 9138 7240 10110 17590 13490 14870 5858 14250 7125 10190 26410 10830 7581 16270 12610 12780 9190 21160 21860 6192 4961 4319 8091 17630 2655 11420 3897 5936 14320 2597 38350 24120 2850 8015 31300 8652 7599 10420 20300 12760 24240 11960 27060 7089 31700 6512 5366 4914 8241 6517 2915 4889 5088 18550 9699 6646 5915 29980 12490 5285 7481 5023 6905 5283 5657 6066 11910 9660 3110 4829 13860 8295 44160 6459 3890 22660 7448 21840 12020 13180 5233 21010 7998 7764 21140 4421 6240 7134 27000 7178 8294 5117 3664 27060 6221 5731 25450 7954 8141 7754 2316 6836 15140 9190 6177 7798 20110 12440 35600 17440 24620 9601 64270 37370 4950 21860 6620 6996 7606 48670 20950 12760 2823 54280 8377 26220 2753 16380 3370 12760 7795 12690 3356 20290 4229 1841 11680 6236 7403 24160 35810 11480 11790 6526 2007 6101 8749 6432 5602 22720 9782 3063 10170 12850 4394 6136 18420 17670 7501 31140 8686 23400 9603 9800 4698 15910 9361 14430 14110 11080 33150 9389 6254 9335 10960 21400 4629 10990 21730 6326 21720 6746 6927 7814 23600 34510 5616 2916 5488 24310 5249 6937 44730 15200 15710 14780 6020 4297 4861 15340 1726 5518 7644 4541 19300 5623 4804 5944 8210 8712 11440 15080 14840 22620 7475 7901 17150 8607 5402 6079 3513 21300 16080 20350 5225 3822 22230 16040 13450 17670 11640 18650 5585 3035 11070 11550 6378 17960 8075 4272 29120 16940 5733 4926 7483 5216 26340 25980 25090 22440 17970 8088 5885 7957 5111 8280 6548 4490 8980 4736 8300 4132 6686 14470 29650 17480 8593 24360 6909 8342 24990 6214 11550 6461 10810 6728 12400
2021-05-28 7341 5986 3204 8570 1468 15770 8359 9715 9840 11860 3884 23740 30720 19880 4296 17710 8263 8266 8318 14550 22840 22530 102200 7149 19440 9357 5985 29780 5081 25500 7141 50510 6841 28970 12690 14710 31100 6061 24580 9138 7243 10110 17600 13500 14880 5860 14260 7126 10200 26410 10830 7588 16280 12620 12780 9192 21170 21860 6193 4963 4320 8092 17670 2666 11420 3898 5936 14320 2598 38360 24130 2850 8017 31310 8655 7601 10420 20310 12780 24250 11960 27070 7097 31720 6519 5381 4914 8242 6521 2918 4891 5099 18560 9700 6647 5916 29990 12490 5286 7493 5024 6913 5283 5657 6070 11930 9661 3110 4830 13860 8299 44280 6468 3893 22670 7450 21840 12030 13190 5236 21010 7999 7770 21150 4424 6243 7137 27000 7182 8296 5122 3666 27070 6222 5732 25470 7957 8152 7756 2317 6837 15140 9192 6180 7804 20120 12440 35660 17440 24640 9605 64320 37390 4951 21870 6622 7002 7609 48670 20960 12760 2823 54340 8381 26220 2755 16380 3372 12770 7795 12700 3361 20300 4233 1849 11680 6237 7404 24180 35820 11480 11800 6534 2007 6104 8751 6434 5604 22740 9789 3065 10170 12860 4396 6136 18430 17670 7503 31160 8692 23410 9604 9804 4704 15910 9367 14440 14120 11080 33160 9392 6255 9335 10980 21400 4630 10990 21750 6342 21730 6751 6930 7817 23610 34520 5617 2918 5490 24310 5254 6938 44750 15210 15720 14780 6023 4301 4862 15340 1728 5521 7647 4542 19310 5627 4807 5946 8212 8715 11440 15090 14840 22630 7477 7903 17150 8609 5404 6080 3518 21310 16090 20360 5227 3824 22230 16050 13450 17670 11650 18650 5586 3036 11080 11550 6381 17960 8075 4273 29120 16940 5734 4928 7484 5218 26350 25990 25090 22440 17970 8093 5887 7958 5115 8283 6552 4495 8981 4737 8308 4133 6690 14480 29680 17480 8596 24360 6913 8342 24990 6219 11550 6461 10810 6730 12400
2021-05-29 7347 5992 3207 8572 1468 15780 8361 9716 9842 11870 3885 23740 30730 19890 4297 17710 8265 8268 8321 14600 22840 22530 102200 7151 19500 9361 5986 29900 5084 25500 7142 50540 6844 28980 12690 14720 31120 6063 24580 9138 7243 10120 17620 13500 14890 5862 14260 7126 10200 26420 10840 7595 16290 12620 12790 9195 21170 21860 6195 4965 4321 8095 17690 2676 11420 3899 5940 14320 2598 38370 24130 2851 8020 31330 8658 7601 10420 20310 12800 24260 11960 27070 7105 31730 6525 5390 4915 8243 6522 2922 4894 5110 18570 9701 6647 5916 30000 12490 5287 7503 5025 6922 5284 5657 6075 11940 9663 3110 4832 13860 8303 44370 6473 3894 22680 7452 21850 12030 13190 5239 21020 7999 7776 21160 4427 6243 7140 27000 7186 8298 5128 3668 27090 6224 5733 25480 7958 8155 7756 2318 6838 15150 9194 6184 7804 20120 12440 35700 17440 24650 9607 64370 37420 4952 21870 6623 7006 7613 48680 20970 12770 2824 54380 8382 26230 2756 16380 3374 12780 7796 12710 3368 20300 4236 1855 11690 6237 7404 24200 35820 11490 11810 6543 2007 6107 8754 6435 5605 22760 9795 3067 10170 12880 4397 6136 18430 17670 7506 31190 8693 23420 9605 9808 4710 15920 9368 14440 14130 11080 33160 9394 6256 9335 11000 21400 4631 11000 21760 6358 21740 6756 6932 7820 23630 34530 5618 2920 5491 24320 5258 6939 44780 15210 15730 14790 6024 4305 4863 15350 1731 5526 7651 4543 19330 5630 4810 5948 8215 8716 11450 15100 14850 22630 7480 7905 17150 8611 5406 6081 3522 21320 16090 20370 5228 3826 22240 16050 13450 17680 11650 18660 5587 3037 11080 11560 6383 17960 8076 4274 29130 16960 5734 4929 7486 5220 26360 25990 25100 22450 17970 8097 5888 7958 5119 8285 6558 4497 8983 4739 8317 4133 6695 14480 29700 17480 8599 24360 6915 8342 25000 6224 11550 6462 10820 6732 12410

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-23 to 2021-05-29

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBrecklandBrentBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarmarthenshireCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterConwyCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDerbyDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDudleyDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEastbourneEastleighEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGreenwichGuildfordHackneyHaltonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMertonMid SuffolkMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOldhamOxfordPendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreYork
2021-05-22 7296 5948 3194 8554 1463 15739 8327 9701 9832 11841 3876 23709 30670 19790 4292 17699 8256 8249 8302 14231 22782 22503 102048 7132 19047 9327 5980 29013 5061 25450 7123 50334 6826 28908 12648 14679 31029 6059 24548 9137 7221 10089 17517 13484 14821 5839 14225 7122 10187 26350 10819 7532 16250 12600 12756 9173 21119 21821 6181 4946 4312 8088 17551 2598 11401 3895 5916 14299 2594 38271 24039 2847 7997 31261 8638 7579 10407 20251 12658 24119 11937 27015 7049 31616 6482 5345 4905 8238 6498 2899 4879 5034 18492 9687 6644 5899 29954 12478 5282 7365 5021 6866 5280 5638 6044 11811 9654 3106 4826 13857 8278 43579 6437 3887 22630 7435 21814 12003 13163 5205 20975 7984 7738 21089 4405 6232 7117 26981 7148 8285 5095 3652 27006 6208 5726 25372 7927 8112 7732 2313 6830 15116 9162 6158 7759 20039 12433 35302 17424 24532 9556 63958 37289 4945 21832 6616 6968 7593 48626 20907 12751 2822 54085 8348 26207 2741 16358 3359 12725 7791 12653 3348 20269 4213 1774 11678 6219 7388 24055 35787 11445 11744 6489 2007 6080 8735 6422 5591 22608 9731 3057 10148 12759 4386 6135 18363 17625 7489 31034 8656 23363 9600 9785 4675 15860 9299 14414 14082 11074 33122 9374 6248 9331 10868 21387 4626 10964 21679 6242 21638 6709 6920 7800 23559 34460 5610 2909 5466 24223 5215 6932 44545 15153 15687 14758 6008 4279 4855 15313 1716 5488 7626 4538 19257 5598 4780 5927 8205 8703 11428 15005 14831 22594 7469 7899 17133 8594 5388 6074 3496 21246 16049 20301 5223 3809 22205 16031 13434 17659 11622 18603 5579 3029 11058 11520 6366 17948 8072 4263 29074 16910 5727 4914 7477 5203 26236 25948 25065 22404 17939 8063 5879 7945 5086 8274 6523 4479 8976 4725 8254 4130 6649 14429 29498 17410 8570 24342 6906 8340 24948 6187 11539 6460 10798 6713 12363
2021-05-23 7300 5950 3197 8559 1464 15750 8329 9703 9833 11850 3877 23710 30680 19800 4292 17700 8259 8251 8306 14270 22790 22510 102100 7133 19100 9331 5981 29150 5066 25450 7125 50370 6830 28920 12660 14680 31040 6061 24560 9138 7224 10100 17530 13490 14830 5841 14230 7124 10190 26360 10820 7538 16260 12600 12760 9175 21130 21830 6182 4947 4313 8094 17570 2609 11400 3897 5919 14300 2596 38280 24050 2848 7999 31270 8640 7582 10410 20260 12670 24130 11940 27020 7061 31630 6489 5356 4905 8239 6501 2902 4882 5047 18500 9688 6645 5900 29960 12480 5283 7380 5022 6872 5282 5642 6047 11830 9655 3106 4828 13860 8282 43690 6442 3888 22640 7437 21820 12000 13170 5207 20980 7985 7742 21100 4407 6233 7119 26980 7152 8288 5100 3655 27030 6210 5727 25390 7929 8117 7733 2313 6831 15120 9167 6161 7763 20040 12440 35360 17430 24550 9559 64000 37320 4946 21840 6617 6971 7596 48630 20910 12750 2825 54130 8352 26210 2743 16360 3361 12730 7793 12660 3355 20280 4216 1779 11680 6221 7391 24070 35790 11450 11750 6496 2008 6081 8738 6423 5592 22630 9737 3059 10150 12770 4387 6137 18370 17630 7492 31050 8660 23370 9601 9788 4679 15870 9303 14420 14090 11080 33130 9376 6249 9336 10890 21390 4628 10970 21690 6258 21650 6711 6923 7802 23570 34470 5611 2910 5468 24240 5219 6933 44580 15160 15690 14760 6010 4282 4856 15320 1718 5493 7630 4540 19280 5599 4782 5928 8210 8704 11430 15010 14830 22600 7471 7903 17140 8595 5389 6076 3498 21260 16050 20310 5226 3811 22210 16040 13440 17660 11630 18610 5580 3030 11060 11520 6368 17950 8073 4264 29080 16920 5728 4915 7478 5204 26250 25950 25070 22410 17940 8067 5881 7945 5089 8276 6528 4482 8978 4727 8263 4131 6653 14430 29520 17420 8571 24350 6907 8345 24950 6191 11540 6462 10800 6715 12370
2021-05-24 7308 5958 3202 8564 1464 15750 8332 9706 9835 11850 3878 23720 30690 19810 4293 17700 8261 8254 8311 14320 22800 22510 102100 7135 19150 9336 5982 29290 5070 25460 7126 50410 6833 28930 12660 14690 31060 6063 24560 9138 7227 10110 17550 13490 14840 5844 14230 7125 10200 26360 10820 7548 16270 12600 12760 9176 21140 21830 6183 4948 4315 8100 17600 2617 11410 3897 5922 14310 2596 38290 24060 2848 8001 31280 8642 7584 10410 20260 12690 24150 11940 27030 7067 31650 6497 5366 4908 8239 6504 2906 4886 5066 18510 9691 6646 5903 29970 12480 5283 7399 5023 6882 5282 5644 6051 11850 9657 3107 4829 13860 8285 43820 6443 3889 22640 7438 21820 12010 13170 5211 20990 7986 7745 21100 4411 6234 7120 26990 7157 8291 5105 3660 27040 6212 5728 25410 7933 8120 7735 2314 6832 15120 9171 6165 7766 20050 12450 35420 17430 24570 9562 64060 37340 4947 21840 6618 6976 7597 48640 20920 12750 2826 54180 8355 26220 2745 16370 3363 12740 7794 12670 3360 20280 4217 1791 11680 6224 7394 24090 35800 11460 11760 6504 2008 6083 8740 6425 5593 22660 9746 3059 10150 12790 4388 6139 18380 17640 7493 31060 8662 23380 9604 9790 4685 15870 9308 14420 14100 11090 33130 9377 6251 9338 10910 21390 4629 10970 21710 6266 21660 6715 6925 7806 23580 34470 5613 2912 5470 24250 5224 6934 44620 15160 15700 14770 6012 4286 4857 15320 1720 5497 7633 4542 19300 5603 4787 5929 8212 8704 11430 15020 14840 22610 7472 7905 17140 8597 5391 6078 3503 21270 16060 20310 5228 3813 22210 16040 13440 17660 11630 18620 5581 3031 11060 11520 6370 17950 8075 4265 29080 16930 5728 4917 7480 5205 26260 25960 25080 22420 17940 8072 5882 7946 5092 8276 6537 4485 8979 4728 8275 4132 6660 14440 29530 17420 8573 24350 6908 8349 24960 6200 11540 6463 10800 6717 12370
2021-05-25 7316 5966 3205 8569 1466 15750 8333 9707 9837 11850 3880 23720 30690 19820 4293 17700 8262 8257 8313 14370 22810 22510 102100 7138 19210 9341 5982 29440 5074 25460 7127 50440 6835 28940 12670 14690 31070 6063 24570 9139 7230 10110 17560 13490 14850 5846 14240 7126 10210 26370 10820 7556 16270 12610 12760 9178 21140 21830 6184 4949 4316 8104 17630 2626 11410 3898 5924 14310 2597 38290 24070 2849 8003 31290 8644 7587 10410 20260 12710 24160 11950 27040 7074 31680 6505 5372 4909 8240 6507 2911 4886 5080 18510 9692 6647 5903 29970 12490 5284 7413 5023 6892 5282 5647 6054 11880 9658 3107 4830 13870 8286 43970 6444 3890 22650 7439 21830 12010 13180 5214 20990 7986 7748 21110 4413 6234 7121 26990 7160 8292 5110 3664 27060 6213 5728 25430 7935 8122 7736 2314 6833 15130 9175 6167 7770 20060 12450 35480 17430 24590 9564 64110 37360 4947 21850 6619 6980 7599 48650 20930 12760 2827 54240 8356 26220 2747 16370 3366 12750 7795 12670 3367 20290 4219 1799 11680 6225 7396 24110 35800 11460 11770 6513 2009 6084 8741 6426 5595 22690 9754 3059 10160 12810 4390 6139 18380 17640 7494 31080 8666 23390 9605 9793 4693 15880 9313 14430 14110 11100 33140 9379 6253 9340 10930 21390 4630 10970 21720 6274 21670 6718 6927 7810 23590 34480 5614 2915 5471 24260 5229 6935 44650 15160 15700 14770 6013 4291 4858 15320 1721 5501 7636 4542 19330 5605 4790 5930 8213 8705 11440 15030 14840 22610 7473 7907 17140 8598 5392 6079 3507 21280 16060 20310 5229 3815 22210 16040 13440 17670 11630 18630 5582 3032 11070 11530 6373 17950 8076 4265 29090 16930 5729 4918 7482 5206 26270 25960 25080 22420 17950 8076 5882 7946 5096 8277 6543 4489 8979 4729 8285 4133 6661 14450 29530 17430 8575 24350 6909 8354 24960 6206 11550 6463 10800 6719 12380
2021-05-26 7324 5974 3208 8574 1467 15760 8335 9710 9839 11860 3881 23720 30700 19830 4294 17710 8263 8259 8314 14410 22820 22510 102200 7140 19270 9346 5983 29580 5078 25470 7128 50470 6837 28950 12670 14690 31080 6064 24580 9140 7234 10120 17580 13490 14870 5848 14240 7126 10210 26380 10820 7564 16280 12610 12760 9179 21150 21840 6184 4950 4317 8108 17660 2634 11410 3899 5926 14310 2598 38300 24070 2849 8005 31300 8645 7588 10410 20260 12730 24170 11950 27050 7081 31700 6512 5383 4912 8240 6510 2915 4888 5094 18520 9693 6647 5905 29980 12490 5284 7425 5024 6902 5282 5649 6057 11900 9659 3107 4831 13870 8288 44100 6446 3891 22650 7440 21830 12010 13180 5217 20990 7987 7751 21110 4416 6234 7122 26990 7165 8294 5116 3668 27070 6214 5730 25450 7937 8125 7737 2314 6833 15130 9178 6170 7773 20060 12460 35540 17430 24610 9567 64170 37390 4948 21850 6620 6985 7601 48650 20940 12760 2828 54280 8358 26220 2749 16370 3368 12760 7796 12680 3373 20290 4221 1806 11680 6227 7398 24130 35810 11470 11780 6524 2010 6085 8743 6428 5596 22720 9760 3060 10160 12820 4391 6140 18390 17640 7496 31100 8668 23390 9606 9796 4701 15880 9315 14440 14120 11100 33140 9380 6254 9343 10950 21390 4631 10980 21730 6283 21680 6721 6929 7812 23600 34480 5615 2917 5473 24270 5234 6936 44680 15160 15700 14770 6013 4296 4860 15330 1724 5506 7641 4543 19360 5606 4792 5930 8215 8705 11440 15040 14840 22610 7474 7910 17140 8600 5393 6080 3513 21290 16070 20320 5231 3818 22220 16040 13440 17670 11640 18630 5583 3032 11070 11530 6375 17960 8077 4266 29090 16940 5730 4919 7483 5206 26280 25970 25090 22430 17950 8080 5882 7947 5099 8278 6547 4492 8980 4729 8296 4135 6666 14450 29540 17440 8577 24360 6909 8358 24960 6212 11550 6464 10810 6722 12380
2021-05-27 7332 5985 3212 8578 1468 15760 8337 9710 9840 11860 3882 23730 30700 19840 4294 17710 8264 8262 8317 14460 22830 22520 102200 7142 19320 9350 5984 29690 5082 25470 7129 50500 6839 28960 12680 14690 31090 6064 24580 9141 7239 10130 17590 13490 14880 5851 14240 7127 10220 26390 10830 7571 16290 12610 12760 9180 21160 21840 6185 4951 4318 8111 17680 2642 11410 3900 5929 14320 2598 38310 24080 2850 8007 31310 8647 7590 10410 20270 12750 24180 11950 27060 7089 31710 6520 5391 4914 8241 6513 2918 4889 5108 18520 9694 6648 5907 29980 12490 5285 7440 5025 6911 5283 5649 6061 11920 9660 3108 4832 13870 8290 44220 6447 3892 22660 7441 21830 12010 13190 5219 21000 7987 7755 21110 4418 6235 7123 27000 7169 8297 5121 3673 27090 6215 5731 25470 7939 8130 7739 2315 6834 15130 9182 6173 7775 20070 12470 35590 17430 24620 9571 64220 37410 4949 21860 6621 6989 7603 48660 20950 12760 2831 54330 8362 26230 2751 16380 3370 12770 7797 12680 3379 20300 4223 1814 11680 6228 7401 24150 35810 11470 11790 6533 2011 6087 8745 6430 5597 22750 9767 3060 10160 12830 4392 6141 18400 17650 7497 31120 8669 23400 9607 9799 4708 15890 9321 14440 14120 11110 33150 9382 6255 9346 10960 21400 4633 10980 21750 6291 21690 6724 6932 7815 23610 34490 5616 2919 5475 24280 5238 6937 44710 15170 15710 14780 6014 4300 4861 15330 1726 5511 7644 4544 19390 5609 4795 5931 8217 8706 11440 15050 14840 22620 7474 7913 17150 8601 5393 6081 3518 21300 16070 20320 5233 3819 22220 16050 13450 17670 11640 18640 5584 3033 11070 11530 6378 17960 8079 4267 29100 16950 5731 4920 7484 5207 26290 25970 25090 22440 17950 8084 5882 7947 5102 8280 6551 4496 8981 4730 8307 4136 6670 14460 29550 17440 8579 24360 6910 8362 24960 6217 11550 6464 10810 6724 12390
2021-05-28 7342 5992 3216 8582 1469 15770 8339 9711 9841 11860 3883 23730 30710 19850 4295 17710 8265 8264 8320 14500 22830 22520 102200 7144 19380 9354 5984 29820 5085 25470 7130 50530 6841 28970 12680 14700 31110 6065 24590 9142 7242 10130 17610 13500 14890 5853 14240 7128 10230 26390 10830 7578 16300 12610 12760 9181 21170 21840 6186 4951 4319 8114 17720 2650 11410 3901 5931 14320 2599 38310 24090 2850 8008 31330 8649 7591 10410 20270 12760 24190 11950 27060 7098 31730 6528 5402 4915 8241 6515 2922 4890 5122 18530 9696 6649 5909 29990 12490 5286 7454 5025 6921 5284 5651 6064 11940 9662 3109 4833 13880 8292 44350 6449 3894 22660 7442 21840 12010 13190 5221 21000 7988 7759 21120 4421 6235 7124 27000 7173 8299 5126 3676 27100 6217 5731 25490 7942 8134 7739 2316 6834 15140 9185 6175 7777 20070 12480 35640 17430 24640 9571 64270 37430 4950 21860 6622 6994 7606 48660 20950 12760 2832 54370 8365 26230 2752 16380 3372 12780 7798 12690 3386 20300 4224 1820 11680 6229 7402 24160 35820 11480 11790 6543 2011 6088 8748 6431 5598 22780 9773 3061 10160 12850 4393 6142 18400 17650 7499 31130 8671 23410 9609 9801 4717 15890 9325 14440 14130 11110 33150 9383 6257 9348 10980 21400 4634 10980 21760 6300 21700 6726 6934 7819 23620 34490 5617 2922 5477 24280 5242 6939 44740 15170 15710 14780 6015 4305 4862 15330 1728 5515 7646 4545 19420 5611 4798 5932 8219 8706 11440 15050 14840 22620 7475 7915 17150 8603 5394 6082 3524 21310 16070 20320 5235 3821 22220 16050 13450 17670 11640 18650 5585 3034 11070 11530 6380 17960 8080 4268 29100 16950 5731 4921 7485 5207 26300 25980 25090 22440 17950 8088 5883 7948 5105 8281 6555 4500 8982 4731 8318 4137 6672 14470 29560 17440 8580 24360 6911 8365 24970 6221 11550 6464 10810 6725 12390
2021-05-29 7353 6003 3220 8586 1470 15770 8340 9713 9842 11860 3883 23730 30710 19860 4295 17710 8266 8267 8322 14550 22840 22520 102300 7145 19430 9359 5985 29950 5088 25480 7130 50560 6843 28980 12680 14700 31120 6066 24600 9143 7244 10140 17620 13500 14900 5855 14250 7129 10230 26400 10830 7585 16310 12610 12760 9182 21170 21840 6186 4951 4320 8118 17740 2658 11420 3901 5934 14320 2600 38320 24090 2851 8010 31340 8650 7592 10420 20270 12780 24190 11950 27070 7105 31740 6536 5408 4916 8242 6518 2925 4892 5138 18530 9696 6649 5910 30000 12490 5287 7462 5026 6931 5284 5652 6066 11970 9663 3109 4834 13880 8293 44460 6450 3894 22670 7443 21840 12010 13200 5223 21010 7988 7763 21120 4423 6235 7125 27000 7175 8301 5131 3681 27120 6218 5732 25500 7944 8136 7740 2316 6835 15140 9187 6177 7778 20070 12480 35690 17440 24650 9572 64310 37450 4950 21870 6623 6998 7608 48670 20960 12760 2833 54400 8367 26230 2754 16380 3374 12790 7799 12700 3394 20310 4226 1825 11680 6230 7403 24180 35820 11480 11800 6554 2012 6089 8749 6432 5599 22810 9779 3061 10170 12860 4394 6142 18400 17650 7501 31150 8672 23410 9610 9803 4725 15890 9327 14450 14140 11120 33160 9385 6258 9349 11000 21400 4635 10980 21770 6309 21710 6729 6937 7821 23630 34490 5618 2925 5477 24290 5246 6940 44760 15170 15720 14780 6016 4310 4863 15330 1730 5520 7648 4546 19450 5613 4800 5932 8221 8706 11450 15060 14850 22630 7476 7917 17150 8604 5394 6083 3530 21320 16080 20330 5236 3823 22230 16050 13450 17680 11650 18650 5586 3034 11080 11530 6383 17960 8083 4268 29100 16960 5732 4923 7487 5207 26300 25980 25100 22450 17950 8092 5883 7948 5107 8282 6561 4503 8982 4732 8329 4138 6675 14470 29570 17450 8581 24360 6911 8368 24970 6225 11550 6465 10810 6727 12400

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.