COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-05-25 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-05-25

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-05-25

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2812-2712-2712-2612-2712-262021-03-2512-2707-212021-03-2512-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1112-302021-05-0912-2612-2212-2912-2712-2712-2912-072021-01-072021-05-0911-132021-01-0112-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2812-3012-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-2110-2812-3012-2212-2812-2512-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-3010-042021-01-0412-262021-01-0512-2912-2612-2712-2912-2411-0212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-282021-01-022021-02-2512-2110-1412-2712-0712-2612-2210-0412-2707-2112-2412-2910-0412-2412-2111-0912-0612-2607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-0609-2712-2712-2312-2712-2212-2812-2512-1812-252021-01-0412-2612-2610-0412-2112-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-2712-2812-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-2212-2912-2812-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0112-2112-2812-2112-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-212021-05-1312-2712-292021-01-0611-022021-01-0312-2112-2712-2711-0212-2112-262021-04-0312-2212-2112-3112-292021-01-0212-2211-012021-01-0712-0812-2112-2112-2112-2212-212021-03-2512-3107-2112-2212-2712-0607-212021-03-1812-2812-292021-01-0311-0312-2712-0612-2707-2112-0812-2710-2612-2612-2110-0411-0112-2112-2911-0412-212021-01-0412-2712-212021-01-0112-2912-2911-0212-2807-2112-2712-2812-2612-272021-01-062021-01-062021-01-0112-062021-01-0412-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2210-0412-0612-2812-2112-2712-2812-1012-3112-1310-1812-3012-2812-2712-252021-01-262021-01-0212-2912-292021-01-0312-2312-2112-3112-2912-2211-0207-2112-3012-2512-2512-2112-2912-2112-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0910-0412-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-2712-2211-0712-2812-2711-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2512-292021-01-0212-2612-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-1912-2212-2312-2712-0611-1312-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-2012-1310-0411-0212-0710-0412-2212-2312-2212-2712-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-2512-3112-2112-3012-2611-02
Peak daily increment 92 102 61 88 97 40 77 73 119 106 170 110 171 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 128 110 108 65 252 426 1250 75 157 65 95 58 203 50 484 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 306 320 107 508 94 186 62 122 123 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 107 303 40 90 268 52 197 249 283 59 91 71 65 266 20 243 5 35 53 94 285 34 553 288 38 181 598 151 69 189 72 58 246 27 170 248 187 118 322 119 87 536 308 60 52 71 76 160 106 25 51 235 204 102 163 147 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 80 69 90 73 94 119 150 125 54 38 122 82 597 92 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 219 59 201 57 401 172 103 338 101 106 136 120 476 101 159 52 76 442 57 116 452 143 83 74 134 18 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 76 311 428 107 1449 284 104 456 71 230 102 727 27 200 90 36 368 92 419 25 46 106 298 37 62 153 186 27 213 302 361 79 62 66 23 105 63 122 85 723 190 212 192 23 50 137 105 51 394 105 58 122 107 41 55 277 158 121 224 90 68 123 3 125 44 108 58 154 120 207 43 102 174 623 105 81 176 151 286 52 188 39 132 139 56 96 198 80 85 59 174 36 25 162 450 42 83 82 403 65 131 573 25 209 244 167 97 42 111 102 69 181 27 42 86 72 448 95 79 108 80 66 102 115 247 293 450 131 156 219 94 55 112 26 189 138 197 66 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 123 56 109 46 141 352 90 44 138 122 360 139 51 101 14 559 151 90 110 120 84 250 329 449 390 227 259 138 117 160 65 154 87 29 78 166 42 65 67 115 217 217 265 83 148 430 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 594
Days since peak 148 149 149 150 149 150 61 149 308 61 155 149 168 155 153 148 153 224 149 153 143 134 146 16 150 154 147 149 149 147 169 138 16 193 144 155 213 154 149 149 162 170 148 146 151 155 150 154 146 146 149 169 209 155 149 150 168 170 149 168 155 154 155 209 146 154 148 151 154 155 142 155 155 146 233 141 150 140 147 150 149 147 152 204 149 148 149 149 155 151 155 155 148 143 89 155 223 149 169 150 154 233 149 308 152 147 233 152 155 197 170 150 308 206 149 146 148 155 150 154 151 155 154 139 240 149 153 149 154 148 151 158 151 141 150 150 233 155 148 155 155 149 155 140 154 149 148 155 155 155 148 149 148 155 153 163 149 163 147 154 147 148 148 146 154 150 155 144 155 148 155 149 154 148 148 151 205 155 12 149 147 139 204 142 155 149 149 204 155 150 52 154 155 145 147 143 154 205 138 168 155 155 155 154 155 61 145 308 154 149 170 308 68 148 147 142 203 149 170 149 308 168 149 211 150 155 233 205 155 147 202 155 141 149 155 144 147 147 204 148 308 149 148 150 149 139 139 144 170 141 147 155 145 140 154 233 170 148 155 149 148 166 145 163 219 146 148 149 151 119 143 147 147 142 153 155 145 147 154 204 308 146 151 151 155 147 155 155 148 150 151 141 154 197 233 155 154 156 142 148 149 154 155 162 148 150 155 151 151 210 154 199 148 149 205 155 153 154 149 155 169 174 151 147 143 150 146 141 149 155 150 155 157 154 153 149 170 193 155 149 154 150 168 155 205 149 149 161 151 204 155 154 155 149 150 156 163 233 204 169 233 154 153 154 149 147 154 154 148 149 154 149 144 148 151 145 155 146 150 204
Last total 7317 5958 2926 5061 8590 3209 8561 5974 1468 15759 8331 9709 9833 11863 3877 23730 30688 19822 4294 17709 8263 8257 8314 14358 22805 22526 102267 7157 19310 9342 6181 5981 29496 5068 25467 7134 50487 10849 6845 28942 6920 12658 14700 31070 6070 24590 6272 9144 7228 10131 17591 13485 14863 5844 14237 7125 10199 26361 8233 10825 8370 7540 16305 1789 12645 12761 3779 9178 21179 21837 6186 4954 4321 8137 17698 2618 11402 297 3904 3175 5925 14305 2598 38306 24062 2850 8006 31331 8644 7584 10420 4310 4345 20260 3002 12693 24154 11943 7884 27048 4218 7110 31688 6501 3054 4229 5364 4910 8253 6509 2902 4889 5086 18530 9702 8951 6645 5901 2998 7415 29969 12486 5301 7370 5032 6892 5284 5640 6059 11871 9657 8093 3106 4857 13889 8292 43949 6448 3891 10317 5558 22665 7445 3433 21838 12010 4231 13181 5206 20994 7984 7748 21120 4417 8957 6235 7125 27002 7153 8296 5121 3660 27062 6215 5728 25440 7934 8157 3013 7739 2314 6841 15138 9176 6163 7767 20070 12488 35515 17431 24623 9580 64076 37399 4946 21852 6621 6979 7597 48654 20971 12759 3771 2821 54326 8354 26241 2750 3490 6741 16385 2267 3373 6859 12748 7817 12669 3382 20309 4431 4217 1783 11687 6226 7406 24100 8485 35820 11447 11761 6528 2009 6082 8749 6430 5597 22683 9738 3057 10153 12798 4393 6148 18375 17641 7495 31064 8663 5002 23449 74 9616 3497 9824 4698 15878 9309 14446 4206 14158 11123 33136 9393 6256 9394 10977 21392 4665 10978 2652 21769 6439 6342 4898 21665 6715 5537 6925 7824 1682 1894 23670 34490 5622 2911 5468 24240 5222 6939 44623 236 15165 15726 14782 6011 4307 4858 5851 7367 15327 1728 5506 7633 4539 19363 5600 4783 5948 8248 5482 8709 11446 15017 14847 22629 7483 7909 17154 8598 5390 6086 3524 21311 16061 20326 5227 3812 22218 5511 16048 13447 17665 11637 18642 5432 5581 3036 11069 10020 5435 2939 11526 6373 17953 8075 4268 6468 1006 29102 16975 5732 4918 7478 5211 26314 25984 25100 22429 17951 7204 8108 5883 7946 5109 8279 6550 1192 4490 8981 4736 8275 4135 6650 14462 29614 17428 4965 8583 24361 6919 8366 24962 6208 5352 11548 6467 10815 6722 5594 12381
Last daily increment 6 2 0 0 1 5 5 2 2 8 3 3 0 10 1 9 7 16 0 4 1 1 6 33 10 6 93 9 93 8 1 0 164 1 7 5 44 0 5 8 1 2 10 16 3 13 3 3 1 12 34 1 14 2 5 1 3 5 1 2 1 2 22 0 15 1 0 0 30 8 3 5 2 19 62 3 0 0 3 0 3 2 3 11 11 1 4 27 2 0 2 0 0 1 0 14 11 0 2 12 2 24 28 7 0 0 2 1 8 2 1 3 14 15 8 1 1 0 0 1 9 1 9 0 1 12 2 2 1 24 1 0 0 8 10 5 108 4 0 4 2 12 4 8 11 2 2 9 0 2 0 4 10 8 2 1 3 6 1 3 10 2 12 3 0 34 2 10 6 1 0 2 14 3 2 3 10 17 76 2 32 8 44 43 0 10 1 4 1 11 34 1 0 0 95 3 13 1 0 0 12 0 6 1 3 13 6 12 11 3 4 2 3 1 5 18 2 10 0 3 13 0 1 4 3 1 41 1 0 3 20 3 7 1 9 3 15 0 1 28 0 2 3 7 10 8 6 10 3 36 22 3 5 4 20 51 3 15 4 1 37 0 34 1 8 2 2 1 6 0 0 53 17 7 0 0 9 5 2 28 0 5 15 9 1 17 2 0 0 3 4 5 1 0 48 2 0 10 19 0 2 6 3 8 15 4 1 9 0 0 2 10 29 4 10 1 1 1 4 7 6 2 4 19 0 1 2 5 2 4 3 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 12 30 1 0 0 3 27 8 15 8 8 1 22 0 0 10 2 16 0 6 1 3 6 2 0 14 51 6 3 5 6 3 7 3 8 5 2 2 4 7 5 9
Last week 30 22 2 6 2 23 17 8 5 48 9 14 5 36 4 26 29 50 2 16 13 15 17 260 50 41 324 27 464 27 4 5 899 20 22 16 277 4 36 74 4 40 34 79 17 61 7 14 19 71 129 7 74 9 17 5 33 27 6 12 4 13 105 0 65 12 5 12 82 24 10 9 13 74 240 55 4 0 15 7 15 20 10 55 42 6 12 131 15 9 17 8 5 21 6 80 69 11 12 56 3 105 120 39 3 6 65 7 18 17 9 16 91 64 18 6 4 5 0 11 44 11 24 18 15 44 9 5 30 99 7 10 4 43 43 24 720 31 12 5 4 67 14 12 41 12 6 35 3 36 0 18 52 16 5 9 15 30 16 20 39 15 129 14 6 124 10 78 11 12 3 16 31 27 14 17 46 87 403 12 151 39 224 207 4 31 9 17 18 53 85 18 2 11 393 14 47 12 7 1 38 7 20 6 60 34 33 64 59 11 15 14 18 10 25 90 5 55 4 60 58 9 5 22 10 8 117 23 5 9 74 7 25 22 25 21 64 15 12 123 0 21 6 53 35 38 19 52 4 106 80 47 26 11 92 179 8 47 25 3 146 1 167 3 52 10 7 16 34 2 0 158 57 16 4 8 35 20 12 158 0 17 64 31 7 35 6 6 3 23 18 33 22 8 178 5 6 25 64 3 12 23 30 22 50 24 24 24 6 3 19 35 101 18 47 16 4 29 14 30 16 14 28 58 4 9 12 24 8 7 4 11 12 12 4 8 5 4 45 103 7 7 5 13 127 54 48 48 14 4 53 9 4 30 12 43 2 22 13 18 36 9 10 55 182 25 9 18 29 19 46 28 36 9 16 15 29 14 9 36
Previous peak date07-2107-21 -- --10-2707-2112-2110-07 --12-21 --10-21 --10-25 -- -- -- --10-20 -- --10-2611-0212-2110-07 --11-02 --10-1310-13 --10-2510-12 --11-02 --05-0310-26 -- -- -- --10-1611-02 -- -- -- --10-1209-2710-2709-02 -- --10-01 -- -- --10-25 -- --10-10 -- --11-02 -- --10-2710-18 --10-20 -- --10-1307-2107-2110-14 -- -- -- --10-29 --04-2010-3110-31 --10-2910-17 -- -- --10-2110-2712-2810-01 --10-12 -- --07-2107-21 -- -- --11-0107-2110-27 -- --07-2110-27 -- -- --10-30 --10-20 --10-06 -- -- --10-18 --07-21 -- -- --07-21 -- -- --10-1510-2910-1107-21 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-2810-2710-14 --10-12 --10-2710-30 -- -- --10-29 -- --10-1710-2707-21 --11-01 -- -- --10-1307-21 --06-11 -- -- -- -- -- --10-1310-2709-29 --10-0804-1411-02 -- --10-31 --10-1209-2812-27 -- -- --11-0210-25 -- -- -- --10-15 -- -- --10-1212-2111-03 --09-30 -- -- --12-07 -- --11-02 -- -- --09-24 -- --10-14 -- -- --07-21 -- --10-31 -- --11-0308-02 -- --11-0211-01 --10-22 -- -- -- --07-21 --11-0211-02 --11-02 -- --11-0310-26 --07-21 --10-1110-10 --10-19 --10-11 -- -- -- --10-13 -- -- --11-0211-0210-3107-21 --09-3010-25 -- -- --10-28 -- -- --07-21 -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- --07-21 -- -- --10-13 --10-24 -- -- -- -- --10-1710-0810-29 -- --07-2110-1810-12 -- -- --10-0610-31 -- -- -- --10-1811-04 -- --10-2910-1110-18 -- -- -- -- --10-26 -- -- --10-17 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-22 -- --10-22 -- -- -- -- --07-21 -- --07-21 --10-15 --10-1610-24 -- --09-3010-3010-11 --11-03 --10-1910-28 --10-17 -- --
Previous peak daily increment 616 365 80 295 134 40 260 61 40 31 75 271 233 262 1226 166 98 54 233 363 55 19 62 1197 57 72 160 31 54 39 60 294 35 120 54 62 1272 83 35 57 68 129 18 69 22 25 164 25 206 59 226 710 39 383 25 191 31 24 30 29 56 475 687 43 127 72 1766 70 33 54 60 69 57 38 22 44 144 49 59 248 45 46 349 153 81 75 479 56 71 480 273 2237 61 44 109 105 87 25 191 2429 91 53 1007 82 56 68 1343 64 257 230 139 354 150 88 41 459 41 46 194 65 67 406 233 81 152 189 33 104 226 66 876 66 75 20 118 77 149 184 120 129 18 172 46 89 27 17 45 144 135 23 307 376 24 319 68 141 22 25 38 54 32 67
Low between peaks 0 -1 28 0 8 18 13 26 -44 8 37 20 -12 48 303 55 29 19 15 23 27 -19 21 68 19 34 54 12 23 7 26 28 -43 -38 17 31 -11 -4 -18 12 1 39 -9 28 -31 9 53 8 34 -47 -2 -3 -13 -3 -32 -1 10 -10 8 -67 19 -4 -5 -9 24 23 -7 22 -40 23 15 -120 -7 19 -66 -54 -1 15 21 -2 0 18 14 21 23 6 120 21 21 58 7 114 21 -25 39 6 35 8 7 18 23 -9 -7 35 16 7 50 28 58 1 20 37 38 22 13 -2 -20 -118 62 22 16 36 92 19 -4 26 14 31 -2 24 -7 28 24 -77 30 38 -1 43 43 58 -23 32 15 31 11 7 6 -31 -27 -71 -2 -2 -25 77 -103 19 -17 -8 8 27 12 -4

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-26 to 2021-06-01

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAllerdaleAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBrecklandBrentBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHaringeyHarrogateHarrowHartHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewhamNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyThanetThree RiversThurrockTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWatfordWaverleyWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-05-25 7317 5958 5061 3209 8561 5974 15759 8331 9709 11863 23730 30688 19822 17709 8263 8257 8314 14358 22805 22526 102267 7157 19310 9342 29496 5068 25467 7134 50487 6845 28942 12658 14700 31070 6070 24590 6272 9144 7228 10131 17591 13485 14863 5844 14237 10199 26361 8233 10825 7540 16305 12645 12761 9178 21179 21837 6186 4954 4321 8137 17698 2618 3904 3175 5925 14305 2598 38306 24062 2850 8006 31331 8644 7584 10420 4310 20260 3002 12693 24154 11943 7884 27048 7110 31688 6501 4229 5364 4910 8253 6509 2902 4889 5086 18530 9702 8951 7415 29969 12486 5301 7370 5032 6892 5284 6059 11871 9657 8093 4857 13889 8292 43949 6448 3891 22665 7445 3433 21838 12010 4231 13181 20994 7748 21120 4417 6235 7125 27002 7153 8296 5121 3660 27062 6215 5728 25440 7934 8157 3013 7739 6841 15138 9176 6163 7767 20070 12488 35515 17431 24623 9580 64076 37399 21852 6621 6979 7597 48654 20971 12759 2821 54326 8354 26241 2750 3490 16385 2267 3373 6859 12748 7817 12669 3382 20309 4431 4217 1783 11687 6226 7406 24100 35820 11761 6528 2009 8749 6430 5597 22683 9738 10153 12798 4393 6148 18375 17641 7495 31064 8663 5002 23449 9616 3497 9824 4698 15878 9309 14446 14158 11123 33136 9393 6256 9394 10977 21392 4665 10978 21769 6342 21665 6715 5537 6925 7824 23670 34490 5622 5468 24240 5222 6939 44623 15165 15726 14782 6011 4307 4858 5851 15327 1728 5506 7633 4539 19363 4783 5948 8248 8709 11446 15017 14847 22629 7483 7909 17154 8598 6086 3524 21311 16061 20326 5227 22218 5511 16048 13447 17665 11637 18642 5581 3036 11069 10020 5435 11526 6373 17953 4268 29102 16975 5732 4918 5211 26314 25984 25100 22429 17951 8108 5883 5109 8279 6550 4490 8981 4736 8275 4135 6650 14462 29614 17428 4965 8583 24361 6919 8366 24962 6208 5352 11548 6467 10815 6722 5594 12381
2021-05-26 7323 5963 5061 3212 8565 5975 15770 8333 9714 11860 23730 30700 19830 17710 8264 8260 8318 14410 22820 22530 102300 7157 19400 9346 29670 5074 25470 7136 50490 6845 28950 12660 14710 31080 6071 24600 6272 9146 7234 10130 17590 13490 14880 5846 14240 10210 26370 8234 10830 7545 16330 12660 12760 9180 21200 21840 6186 4954 4323 8146 17730 2627 3905 3176 5931 14310 2599 38310 24080 2851 8008 31350 8647 7584 10420 4311 20270 3003 12710 24170 11940 7885 27060 7126 31710 6507 4230 5364 4912 8258 6512 2906 4891 5097 18540 9702 8953 7417 29980 12490 5308 7375 5033 6899 5285 6064 11890 9658 8093 4865 13900 8296 44070 6448 3891 22680 7446 3438 21840 12010 4232 13190 21000 7749 21130 4420 6235 7127 27010 7156 8298 5122 3662 27080 6217 5730 25460 7937 8157 3015 7740 6842 15140 9180 6168 7770 20080 12500 35560 17430 24650 9580 64150 37400 21860 6621 6984 7601 48660 20980 12760 2821 54420 8360 26250 2752 3490 16390 2268 3374 6860 12760 7821 12680 3391 20320 4432 4218 1784 11690 6229 7410 24120 35830 11770 6532 2010 8752 6431 5598 22720 9744 10160 12810 4394 6148 18380 17650 7497 31070 8665 5003 23460 9616 3498 9824 4705 15890 9312 14450 14190 11140 33140 9396 6258 9409 11020 21390 4674 10980 21770 6368 21670 6717 5538 6928 7828 23690 34500 5627 5470 24250 5223 6941 44670 15170 15730 14780 6012 4317 4859 5852 15330 1731 5511 7636 4540 19390 4785 5951 8264 8709 11450 15030 14850 22640 7486 7912 17160 8601 6088 3530 21320 16070 20330 5227 22230 5513 16050 13450 17670 11640 18650 5582 3037 11070 10020 5436 11530 6375 17960 4269 29110 16990 5733 4920 5212 26320 25980 25110 22440 17950 8115 5884 5111 8281 6550 4490 8981 4738 8282 4137 6664 14470 29640 17440 4966 8585 24360 6921 8372 24970 6215 5352 11550 6469 10820 6724 5594 12390
2021-05-27 7329 5971 5062 3212 8572 5976 15770 8336 9715 11870 23740 30710 19850 17710 8264 8264 8322 14480 22830 22530 102400 7157 19470 9352 29810 5080 25470 7136 50510 6846 28960 12670 14710 31100 6071 24600 6272 9147 7241 10130 17610 13490 14880 5851 14250 10220 26370 8234 10830 7562 16340 12670 12760 9184 21220 21840 6187 4955 4323 8146 17760 2643 3905 3176 5934 14310 2600 38320 24090 2851 8009 31350 8649 7585 10420 4311 20270 3004 12740 24180 11950 7885 27070 7141 31720 6510 4230 5367 4913 8261 6516 2911 4892 5111 18550 9702 8954 7418 29980 12490 5312 7415 5033 6904 5285 6068 11910 9659 8093 4869 13900 8300 44180 6448 3893 22680 7446 3443 21850 12010 4232 13190 21010 7752 21140 4422 6236 7129 27010 7166 8298 5125 3664 27090 6219 5731 25470 7939 8157 3015 7742 6842 15140 9186 6172 7773 20080 12500 35610 17430 24670 9587 64200 37410 21870 6622 6988 7605 48660 20980 12760 2825 54500 8366 26250 2754 3491 16390 2268 3374 6860 12770 7821 12690 3391 20320 4432 4218 1793 11690 6230 7412 24140 35840 11780 6532 2011 8755 6431 5601 22750 9760 10160 12810 4395 6150 18380 17650 7500 31090 8666 5003 23480 9616 3498 9825 4706 15900 9314 14450 14210 11150 33150 9396 6258 9420 11060 21400 4680 10980 21770 6389 21680 6720 5538 6930 7828 23700 34510 5632 5472 24290 5226 6942 44700 15170 15730 14780 6013 4324 4861 5852 15340 1731 5516 7639 4541 19390 4793 5951 8272 8711 11450 15030 14850 22640 7487 7914 17160 8603 6088 3530 21320 16070 20340 5229 22230 5513 16060 13450 17680 11650 18650 5582 3038 11070 10020 5437 11530 6378 17960 4271 29120 17000 5734 4923 5212 26340 25990 25110 22440 17960 8115 5886 5116 8281 6553 4492 8982 4738 8290 4140 6673 14480 29660 17440 4966 8588 24360 6921 8375 24970 6221 5353 11550 6469 10820 6725 5594 12390
2021-05-28 7336 5979 5063 3212 8577 5977 15780 8337 9718 11870 23740 30710 19860 17710 8265 8265 8326 14530 22840 22530 102500 7157 19540 9357 29950 5081 25480 7136 50540 6852 28970 12670 14720 31110 6073 24600 6272 9149 7243 10130 17620 13490 14890 5855 14250 10220 26380 8235 10830 7574 16360 12670 12760 9186 21240 21850 6187 4955 4323 8146 17800 2655 3905 3177 5936 14310 2600 38320 24090 2852 8011 31350 8652 7585 10420 4312 20280 3004 12760 24190 11950 7885 27080 7156 31730 6515 4231 5378 4913 8264 6519 2916 4893 5123 18560 9704 8955 7420 29990 12490 5316 7439 5033 6910 5285 6072 11930 9661 8094 4874 13900 8304 44300 6448 3896 22680 7448 3448 21850 12020 4232 13190 21010 7756 21150 4425 6238 7131 27010 7172 8300 5128 3667 27100 6221 5733 25490 7940 8163 3016 7744 6842 15150 9191 6174 7775 20080 12500 35670 17430 24690 9588 64250 37430 21870 6624 6994 7609 48670 20990 12760 2825 54580 8371 26250 2756 3493 16390 2269 3374 6860 12770 7821 12690 3391 20330 4432 4218 1798 11690 6231 7414 24170 35850 11800 6532 2013 8758 6432 5602 22780 9770 10160 12810 4396 6152 18380 17650 7502 31110 8667 5003 23500 9616 3498 9826 4710 15900 9317 14450 14230 11170 33160 9396 6259 9432 11100 21400 4686 10990 21790 6412 21690 6723 5538 6933 7828 23720 34510 5637 5475 24310 5228 6943 44730 15170 15730 14790 6014 4332 4862 5852 15340 1733 5520 7643 4542 19390 4798 5951 8283 8713 11450 15040 14850 22640 7488 7917 17160 8604 6088 3530 21330 16080 20340 5232 22240 5513 16060 13450 17680 11650 18660 5583 3039 11070 10020 5437 11530 6380 17960 4273 29120 17010 5735 4925 5213 26350 25990 25110 22450 17960 8115 5887 5118 8282 6556 4496 8983 4738 8299 4142 6677 14480 29690 17440 4966 8588 24370 6921 8378 24980 6228 5353 11550 6469 10820 6727 5596 12400
2021-05-29 7343 5986 5063 3214 8581 5978 15790 8338 9719 11870 23740 30720 19870 17710 8265 8268 8330 14590 22850 22540 102500 7157 19600 9361 30080 5084 25480 7136 50570 6855 28990 12670 14720 31130 6075 24600 6272 9150 7243 10140 17640 13490 14900 5857 14260 10230 26380 8236 10840 7582 16380 12680 12770 9189 21250 21850 6188 4956 4324 8146 17820 2667 3905 3178 5940 14320 2601 38320 24100 2852 8012 31360 8655 7585 10420 4312 20280 3005 12780 24200 11950 7885 27080 7170 31740 6520 4231 5386 4914 8268 6522 2920 4896 5135 18570 9705 8955 7421 29990 12490 5321 7454 5033 6918 5285 6077 11940 9662 8094 4880 13900 8308 44390 6448 3896 22690 7449 3452 21850 12020 4233 13190 21020 7760 21160 4428 6238 7134 27020 7177 8302 5133 3670 27120 6223 5733 25500 7942 8164 3017 7744 6842 15150 9196 6176 7775 20080 12500 35710 17440 24710 9590 64290 37450 21870 6624 6998 7613 48680 20990 12770 2826 54640 8373 26250 2757 3495 16390 2270 3374 6861 12780 7821 12700 3394 20340 4432 4218 1802 11690 6232 7417 24190 35860 11810 6532 2014 8761 6433 5604 22810 9778 10160 12820 4397 6155 18380 17660 7504 31120 8668 5003 23520 9616 3498 9829 4715 15910 9319 14450 14250 11180 33160 9397 6260 9444 11130 21400 4692 10990 21800 6435 21700 6725 5538 6935 7831 23750 34520 5641 5476 24330 5229 6945 44760 15170 15740 14790 6015 4340 4863 5853 15340 1735 5524 7646 4542 19410 4801 5951 8295 8714 11450 15050 14860 22640 7490 7920 17170 8604 6088 3531 21340 16090 20350 5233 22240 5513 16070 13460 17680 11650 18660 5584 3040 11080 10020 5438 11530 6382 17960 4274 29130 17020 5735 4927 5214 26360 25990 25110 22450 17960 8115 5888 5118 8283 6562 4499 8985 4738 8307 4144 6680 14490 29720 17440 4966 8588 24370 6921 8383 24980 6234 5354 11560 6469 10820 6729 5596 12400
2021-05-30 7350 5993 5064 3216 8585 5979 15790 8340 9722 11880 23750 30720 19880 17720 8266 8272 8335 14640 22850 22540 102600 7160 19670 9366 30220 5087 25480 7136 50600 6860 28990 12670 14730 31150 6077 24610 6272 9152 7247 10150 17650 13500 14910 5860 14260 10230 26380 8236 10840 7590 16400 12690 12770 9191 21270 21850 6191 4957 4326 8146 17850 2677 3905 3178 5942 14320 2602 38330 24110 2853 8015 31370 8657 7588 10420 4313 20280 3006 12790 24210 11950 7885 27090 7184 31760 6526 4232 5390 4916 8272 6525 2924 4900 5150 18580 9708 8956 7423 30000 12500 5326 7467 5033 6925 5286 6081 11950 9663 8097 4886 13910 8312 44500 6448 3898 22700 7450 3457 21860 12020 4233 13190 21020 7764 21170 4430 6238 7136 27020 7181 8304 5139 3673 27130 6224 5733 25510 7944 8171 3019 7747 6842 15150 9200 6179 7780 20080 12500 35770 17440 24740 9596 64340 37470 21880 6625 7003 7617 48680 21000 12770 2826 54710 8378 26250 2759 3496 16390 2271 3375 6861 12790 7821 12710 3399 20340 4432 4218 1805 11690 6234 7421 24210 35860 11820 6532 2015 8764 6434 5605 22840 9785 10160 12830 4398 6155 18390 17660 7507 31150 8670 5004 23530 9616 3498 9834 4721 15910 9322 14450 14280 11190 33170 9399 6261 9456 11170 21400 4699 10990 21810 6459 21700 6727 5539 6937 7833 23770 34520 5645 5479 24340 5230 6946 44790 15180 15740 14790 6016 4348 4865 5853 15350 1737 5531 7649 4543 19430 4804 5951 8307 8717 11460 15050 14860 22640 7492 7923 17170 8606 6088 3535 21340 16090 20350 5234 22250 5513 16070 13460 17680 11660 18670 5584 3042 11080 10030 5439 11540 6385 17960 4275 29140 17030 5735 4929 5215 26380 26000 25110 22460 17960 8116 5889 5122 8285 6567 4501 8987 4739 8316 4146 6684 14490 29750 17450 4966 8590 24370 6921 8388 24990 6241 5356 11560 6469 10820 6730 5596 12410
2021-05-31 7360 6000 5065 3220 8589 5980 15800 8342 9725 11880 23750 30730 19890 17720 8267 8274 8341 14690 22860 22540 102700 7167 19760 9370 30380 5092 25490 7137 50650 6864 29010 12680 14730 31170 6080 24620 6273 9154 7249 10160 17670 13500 14920 5862 14270 10240 26390 8237 10840 7597 16420 12700 12770 9193 21290 21860 6191 4958 4327 8151 17890 2688 3905 3179 5946 14320 2604 38330 24120 2853 8017 31390 8660 7589 10430 4314 20290 3007 12810 24220 11950 7885 27100 7198 31780 6533 4232 5402 4917 8276 6528 2928 4903 5171 18590 9710 8959 7425 30010 12500 5331 7476 5033 6933 5286 6086 11980 9664 8098 4892 13910 8316 44630 6450 3899 22710 7452 3461 21860 12020 4234 13200 21030 7770 21170 4433 6239 7138 27030 7185 8306 5146 3676 27150 6226 5735 25530 7946 8187 3021 7750 6843 15160 9204 6180 7781 20090 12500 35840 17440 24760 9604 64400 37500 21880 6626 7009 7621 48690 21010 12770 2826 54820 8383 26250 2761 3496 16400 2271 3377 6862 12800 7821 12710 3406 20350 4432 4218 1807 11690 6236 7424 24230 35870 11830 6535 2016 8768 6435 5607 22870 9791 10160 12840 4399 6159 18400 17670 7509 31160 8671 5005 23550 9620 3498 9849 4727 15920 9324 14470 14300 11210 33180 9402 6263 9468 11200 21400 4706 11000 21840 6482 21710 6729 5539 6940 7837 23800 34540 5649 5480 24360 5232 6948 44810 15180 15760 14800 6019 4357 4866 5854 15350 1740 5535 7652 4544 19450 4807 5951 8319 8718 11460 15060 14860 22650 7495 7926 17180 8607 6090 3540 21350 16090 20360 5234 22260 5513 16080 13460 17680 11660 18680 5585 3043 11080 10030 5440 11540 6387 17960 4276 29140 17050 5736 4931 5216 26400 26010 25120 22470 17960 8121 5890 5130 8286 6574 4505 8989 4740 8325 4148 6687 14500 29790 17450 4966 8593 24380 6922 8393 24990 6247 5358 11560 6469 10820 6732 5598 12420
2021-06-01 7367 6006 5065 3223 8593 5981 15810 8343 9727 11890 23750 30730 19900 17720 8268 8275 8348 14730 22870 22550 102700 7173 19840 9374 30540 5093 25490 7138 50680 6868 29010 12680 14740 31200 6082 24630 6273 9156 7250 10170 17700 13500 14930 5863 14270 10240 26390 8238 10840 7602 16440 12710 12770 9194 21300 21860 6193 4961 4329 8158 17920 2697 3906 3180 5948 14320 2605 38340 24130 2854 8019 31400 8662 7589 10430 4315 20290 3007 12830 24240 11950 7886 27110 7212 31790 6540 4233 5405 4918 8280 6531 2931 4904 5183 18600 9715 8959 7426 30010 12500 5337 7483 5034 6942 5287 6091 12000 9666 8099 4898 13920 8320 44740 6452 3899 22720 7453 3465 21870 12020 4235 13200 21040 7777 21180 4435 6240 7140 27030 7188 8308 5155 3679 27160 6227 5735 25560 7948 8194 3024 7750 6844 15160 9208 6182 7784 20090 12510 35900 17440 24780 9609 64450 37530 21890 6627 7014 7624 48700 21020 12770 2826 54890 8383 26260 2762 3496 16400 2272 3378 6862 12810 7822 12720 3414 20360 4432 4218 1809 11690 6237 7428 24250 35880 11840 6541 2017 8771 6436 5608 22900 9796 10170 12850 4400 6164 18400 17670 7511 31180 8673 5006 23570 9621 3499 9854 4734 15930 9327 14470 14320 11220 33180 9404 6264 9481 11240 21400 4713 11000 21860 6506 21720 6731 5540 6942 7840 23830 34550 5654 5480 24370 5233 6949 44840 15180 15770 14810 6019 4365 4867 5855 15350 1743 5540 7655 4545 19470 4809 5951 8332 8719 11460 15060 14870 22650 7497 7929 17180 8608 6091 3545 21360 16100 20360 5235 22260 5514 16080 13460 17690 11660 18690 5586 3044 11080 10030 5442 11540 6389 17970 4277 29150 17070 5737 4932 5217 26420 26020 25120 22470 17970 8127 5891 5139 8288 6586 4511 8990 4742 8334 4149 6687 14510 29820 17460 4966 8597 24380 6923 8399 24990 6253 5361 11560 6470 10820 6734 5601 12430

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-26 to 2021-06-01

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAllerdaleAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBrecklandBrentBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHaringeyHarrogateHarrowHartHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewhamNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyThanetThree RiversThurrockTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWatfordWaverleyWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-05-25 7317 5958 5061 3209 8561 5974 15759 8331 9709 11863 23730 30688 19822 17709 8263 8257 8314 14358 22805 22526 102267 7157 19310 9342 29496 5068 25467 7134 50487 6845 28942 12658 14700 31070 6070 24590 6272 9144 7228 10131 17591 13485 14863 5844 14237 10199 26361 8233 10825 7540 16305 12645 12761 9178 21179 21837 6186 4954 4321 8137 17698 2618 3904 3175 5925 14305 2598 38306 24062 2850 8006 31331 8644 7584 10420 4310 20260 3002 12693 24154 11943 7884 27048 7110 31688 6501 4229 5364 4910 8253 6509 2902 4889 5086 18530 9702 8951 7415 29969 12486 5301 7370 5032 6892 5284 6059 11871 9657 8093 4857 13889 8292 43949 6448 3891 22665 7445 3433 21838 12010 4231 13181 20994 7748 21120 4417 6235 7125 27002 7153 8296 5121 3660 27062 6215 5728 25440 7934 8157 3013 7739 6841 15138 9176 6163 7767 20070 12488 35515 17431 24623 9580 64076 37399 21852 6621 6979 7597 48654 20971 12759 2821 54326 8354 26241 2750 3490 16385 2267 3373 6859 12748 7817 12669 3382 20309 4431 4217 1783 11687 6226 7406 24100 35820 11761 6528 2009 8749 6430 5597 22683 9738 10153 12798 4393 6148 18375 17641 7495 31064 8663 5002 23449 9616 3497 9824 4698 15878 9309 14446 14158 11123 33136 9393 6256 9394 10977 21392 4665 10978 21769 6342 21665 6715 5537 6925 7824 23670 34490 5622 5468 24240 5222 6939 44623 15165 15726 14782 6011 4307 4858 5851 15327 1728 5506 7633 4539 19363 4783 5948 8248 8709 11446 15017 14847 22629 7483 7909 17154 8598 6086 3524 21311 16061 20326 5227 22218 5511 16048 13447 17665 11637 18642 5581 3036 11069 10020 5435 11526 6373 17953 4268 29102 16975 5732 4918 5211 26314 25984 25100 22429 17951 8108 5883 5109 8279 6550 4490 8981 4736 8275 4135 6650 14462 29614 17428 4965 8583 24361 6919 8366 24962 6208 5352 11548 6467 10815 6722 5594 12381
2021-05-26 7325 5963 5062 3213 8564 5976 15770 8332 9713 11870 23740 30700 19830 17710 8264 8259 8317 14400 22810 22530 102300 7162 19400 9347 29660 5071 25470 7137 50530 6849 28950 12660 14710 31090 6073 24600 6273 9146 7232 10140 17610 13490 14880 5846 14240 10210 26370 8234 10830 7545 16320 12660 12760 9179 21200 21840 6187 4956 4323 8147 17740 2626 3906 3176 5928 14310 2599 38320 24070 2851 8009 31350 8646 7584 10420 4311 20260 3003 12710 24170 11940 7886 27060 7125 31710 6508 4230 5373 4913 8257 6512 2904 4893 5103 18540 9706 8954 7416 29980 12490 5305 7376 5033 6901 5285 6063 11890 9658 8094 4864 13900 8296 44080 6452 3891 22670 7447 3436 21850 12010 4232 13190 21000 7751 21130 4421 6235 7127 27010 7157 8299 5127 3663 27080 6217 5729 25470 7935 8166 3016 7741 6843 15140 9180 6166 7769 20080 12500 35590 17430 24650 9585 64130 37440 21860 6622 6983 7599 48660 20990 12760 2821 54400 8356 26250 2752 3490 16390 2267 3377 6860 12760 7823 12670 3391 20320 4433 4219 1787 11690 6228 7410 24120 35830 11770 6541 2010 8753 6433 5598 22720 9743 10160 12810 4394 6151 18380 17650 7497 31080 8665 5004 23470 9619 3499 9831 4707 15880 9312 14450 14180 11140 33140 9397 6258 9409 11020 21390 4674 10980 21790 6367 21670 6716 5538 6927 7828 23710 34500 5626 5469 24250 5226 6941 44650 15170 15740 14790 6012 4315 4859 5852 15330 1731 5512 7636 4540 19400 4785 5952 8258 8710 11450 15020 14850 22640 7485 7912 17160 8599 6088 3532 21330 16070 20330 5228 22220 5513 16050 13450 17670 11640 18650 5582 3038 11070 10020 5437 11530 6376 17960 4269 29110 17000 5734 4919 5212 26330 25990 25110 22440 17960 8118 5883 5115 8281 6555 4493 8982 4738 8284 4137 6654 14470 29640 17430 4966 8587 24370 6921 8373 24970 6216 5354 11550 6468 10820 6725 5596 12390
2021-05-27 7332 5974 5062 3215 8568 5977 15770 8335 9714 11870 23740 30710 19840 17710 8264 8263 8320 14460 22820 22530 102400 7163 19460 9352 29810 5076 25480 7138 50560 6850 28960 12670 14710 31100 6074 24610 6273 9147 7238 10150 17630 13490 14890 5848 14240 10210 26370 8234 10830 7554 16330 12660 12760 9180 21210 21850 6188 4957 4324 8150 17770 2638 3906 3177 5931 14310 2600 38330 24080 2851 8011 31360 8649 7585 10420 4311 20270 3003 12730 24180 11950 7887 27070 7135 31730 6515 4230 5381 4915 8259 6515 2908 4893 5119 18540 9706 8956 7417 29980 12490 5306 7396 5033 6911 5286 6067 11920 9660 8094 4867 13900 8298 44220 6454 3892 22680 7448 3437 21850 12010 4232 13190 21010 7753 21130 4423 6236 7128 27010 7161 8301 5132 3666 27100 6218 5730 25490 7937 8171 3018 7743 6843 15150 9185 6170 7772 20080 12510 35650 17430 24670 9588 64180 37460 21870 6623 6987 7602 48670 20990 12760 2824 54450 8360 26250 2754 3491 16390 2268 3379 6861 12770 7824 12680 3397 20320 4433 4221 1794 11690 6229 7412 24140 35840 11780 6551 2010 8755 6434 5599 22750 9752 10160 12820 4395 6152 18390 17650 7499 31100 8667 5004 23480 9621 3499 9833 4713 15890 9318 14460 14190 11150 33150 9398 6259 9417 11050 21400 4676 10980 21810 6378 21680 6718 5538 6929 7832 23730 34500 5628 5470 24250 5230 6942 44690 15170 15740 14790 6013 4319 4861 5853 15340 1733 5517 7640 4541 19430 4788 5953 8261 8711 11450 15030 14850 22640 7486 7915 17160 8601 6089 3536 21340 16070 20340 5229 22230 5514 16060 13450 17670 11650 18660 5583 3038 11070 10020 5438 11530 6378 17960 4270 29110 17000 5734 4920 5213 26340 26000 25110 22450 17960 8121 5884 5118 8282 6560 4497 8983 4738 8294 4138 6659 14480 29650 17440 4966 8590 24370 6921 8379 24970 6223 5355 11550 6469 10820 6727 5596 12390
2021-05-28 7340 5981 5063 3218 8570 5977 15780 8337 9716 11880 23740 30710 19850 17710 8265 8265 8322 14510 22830 22530 102400 7164 19530 9356 29960 5079 25480 7139 50590 6854 28970 12670 14710 31120 6075 24610 6273 9148 7241 10160 17640 13490 14900 5850 14250 10220 26380 8235 10830 7561 16340 12660 12760 9182 21220 21850 6188 4957 4325 8154 17800 2648 3907 3177 5932 14310 2601 38330 24090 2852 8013 31370 8651 7585 10420 4312 20270 3003 12750 24180 11950 7888 27070 7146 31750 6523 4230 5394 4915 8261 6517 2911 4895 5134 18550 9708 8958 7418 29990 12490 5307 7410 5034 6919 5287 6070 11940 9661 8095 4870 13900 8300 44360 6457 3894 22690 7449 3438 21850 12010 4233 13200 21010 7757 21140 4426 6237 7129 27010 7166 8303 5137 3670 27110 6219 5731 25510 7939 8178 3020 7743 6844 15150 9188 6172 7774 20090 12510 35710 17440 24690 9589 64230 37490 21870 6625 6991 7604 48680 21000 12770 2825 54510 8363 26260 2755 3492 16400 2268 3381 6861 12780 7824 12690 3405 20330 4433 4223 1800 11690 6230 7413 24160 35840 11790 6560 2011 8757 6435 5600 22770 9758 10160 12830 4396 6154 18390 17650 7500 31110 8669 5005 23490 9623 3500 9835 4721 15890 9322 14460 14200 11160 33150 9399 6261 9425 11070 21400 4679 10990 21830 6390 21690 6720 5538 6932 7834 23740 34510 5630 5471 24260 5234 6944 44710 15170 15740 14790 6014 4324 4862 5853 15340 1735 5521 7643 4542 19460 4791 5954 8265 8712 11450 15040 14860 22640 7487 7918 17170 8602 6090 3541 21340 16070 20340 5232 22230 5515 16060 13460 17680 11650 18670 5584 3039 11080 10020 5440 11530 6381 17960 4270 29120 17010 5735 4921 5214 26350 26000 25120 22450 17960 8124 5885 5121 8284 6564 4501 8983 4739 8304 4139 6660 14490 29670 17440 4967 8592 24380 6922 8383 24970 6228 5355 11550 6469 10820 6729 5597 12400
2021-05-29 7348 5989 5064 3222 8573 5978 15780 8338 9717 11880 23750 30720 19860 17720 8265 8268 8325 14550 22840 22540 102500 7165 19590 9360 30110 5082 25480 7140 50630 6856 28990 12670 14710 31130 6076 24620 6274 9149 7243 10170 17660 13490 14910 5852 14250 10230 26380 8235 10830 7568 16350 12660 12760 9183 21220 21850 6189 4958 4326 8157 17830 2659 3908 3178 5935 14320 2602 38340 24090 2852 8015 31380 8653 7585 10420 4312 20270 3004 12760 24190 11950 7888 27080 7158 31760 6531 4231 5404 4916 8263 6520 2914 4897 5149 18560 9708 8959 7419 30000 12490 5308 7417 5035 6929 5287 6073 11960 9663 8095 4873 13910 8302 44460 6460 3894 22690 7450 3439 21860 12010 4233 13200 21010 7760 21140 4428 6237 7130 27020 7169 8306 5142 3674 27130 6220 5732 25520 7941 8182 3022 7744 6844 15150 9192 6175 7775 20090 12520 35750 17440 24710 9590 64270 37520 21870 6626 6995 7607 48680 21010 12770 2826 54550 8365 26260 2757 3494 16400 2269 3383 6862 12790 7825 12690 3412 20340 4433 4225 1804 11690 6231 7414 24180 35850 11790 6570 2012 8759 6435 5601 22800 9765 10160 12850 4396 6155 18390 17660 7502 31130 8671 5006 23500 9623 3500 9836 4727 15900 9324 14470 14210 11170 33160 9400 6262 9432 11100 21400 4682 10990 21840 6404 21700 6722 5539 6934 7837 23770 34510 5631 5471 24260 5237 6945 44740 15170 15750 14790 6014 4329 4864 5854 15340 1737 5525 7646 4543 19480 4793 5954 8269 8712 11460 15040 14860 22650 7489 7921 17170 8603 6091 3546 21350 16080 20340 5232 22230 5515 16060 13460 17680 11660 18670 5584 3040 11080 10020 5441 11530 6383 17960 4271 29120 17020 5735 4922 5214 26350 26010 25120 22460 17960 8128 5886 5123 8286 6571 4504 8984 4740 8315 4140 6662 14500 29680 17440 4967 8594 24380 6922 8388 24970 6232 5356 11560 6470 10820 6730 5598 12400
2021-05-30 7357 5995 5064 3225 8575 5979 15780 8340 9719 11880 23750 30720 19870 17720 8266 8271 8328 14600 22850 22540 102500 7166 19650 9364 30260 5086 25490 7142 50660 6859 28990 12680 14720 31140 6078 24630 6274 9150 7246 10170 17670 13490 14920 5854 14250 10230 26390 8236 10830 7573 16360 12660 12770 9184 21230 21860 6190 4958 4327 8160 17850 2669 3909 3179 5938 14320 2603 38350 24100 2853 8017 31400 8655 7587 10430 4313 20280 3004 12780 24200 11950 7889 27090 7169 31770 6539 4231 5411 4917 8265 6523 2917 4899 5163 18560 9711 8961 7420 30000 12500 5309 7430 5035 6938 5288 6077 11980 9664 8096 4876 13910 8304 44580 6462 3894 22700 7451 3440 21860 12020 4234 13210 21020 7764 21150 4430 6237 7131 27020 7171 8308 5148 3677 27150 6222 5732 25540 7943 8189 3024 7746 6844 15160 9195 6178 7779 20090 12520 35810 17440 24730 9593 64310 37530 21880 6627 6999 7609 48680 21020 12770 2827 54590 8368 26270 2759 3494 16400 2269 3385 6863 12800 7826 12700 3419 20340 4434 4226 1809 11690 6233 7416 24200 35850 11800 6579 2012 8761 6436 5602 22830 9770 10160 12860 4397 6155 18400 17660 7504 31140 8674 5007 23520 9625 3501 9839 4734 15900 9329 14470 14220 11170 33170 9402 6263 9442 11130 21400 4686 10990 21850 6420 21710 6724 5539 6936 7842 23780 34510 5632 5473 24270 5241 6947 44770 15180 15750 14800 6015 4334 4865 5855 15350 1739 5531 7649 4544 19500 4794 5955 8273 8713 11460 15050 14860 22650 7489 7924 17170 8604 6092 3551 21360 16080 20340 5234 22240 5516 16070 13460 17680 11660 18680 5585 3040 11080 10020 5442 11530 6385 17960 4272 29120 17020 5736 4923 5215 26360 26010 25130 22460 17970 8132 5886 5127 8287 6575 4508 8985 4741 8325 4141 6664 14500 29690 17450 4967 8596 24380 6923 8393 24980 6237 5357 11560 6471 10820 6732 5599 12410
2021-05-31 7366 6004 5065 3230 8578 5980 15790 8342 9721 11890 23750 30730 19870 17720 8267 8273 8333 14650 22860 22540 102500 7169 19720 9368 30410 5090 25490 7143 50690 6861 29000 12680 14720 31160 6080 24640 6274 9151 7249 10180 17690 13500 14930 5855 14250 10230 26390 8236 10830 7578 16370 12660 12770 9185 21240 21860 6191 4959 4328 8167 17880 2679 3910 3180 5941 14320 2604 38350 24110 2854 8019 31410 8657 7588 10430 4314 20280 3005 12790 24210 11950 7890 27100 7180 31790 6547 4232 5419 4918 8266 6526 2921 4902 5183 18570 9712 8963 7421 30010 12500 5311 7442 5036 6948 5289 6080 12000 9665 8097 4880 13910 8306 44720 6465 3895 22710 7452 3441 21870 12020 4234 13210 21020 7768 21150 4433 6238 7132 27020 7174 8311 5154 3681 27170 6223 5733 25560 7946 8197 3027 7747 6845 15160 9198 6180 7781 20100 12530 35870 17440 24750 9596 64370 37560 21880 6628 7003 7612 48690 21020 12770 2828 54660 8371 26270 2760 3495 16400 2270 3387 6863 12810 7826 12700 3429 20350 4434 4227 1813 11690 6234 7418 24220 35860 11810 6590 2013 8763 6437 5603 22870 9776 10160 12870 4398 6157 18400 17660 7506 31160 8675 5008 23530 9629 3501 9844 4743 15900 9333 14480 14230 11180 33170 9404 6265 9450 11150 21400 4690 10990 21870 6435 21720 6725 5539 6939 7845 23800 34520 5634 5474 24280 5244 6948 44800 15180 15760 14800 6017 4339 4866 5855 15350 1741 5535 7651 4546 19540 4796 5956 8278 8714 11460 15060 14860 22660 7490 7927 17180 8606 6094 3558 21370 16080 20350 5234 22240 5518 16070 13460 17680 11660 18690 5586 3041 11080 10020 5443 11530 6387 17960 4272 29130 17030 5736 4924 5215 26370 26020 25130 22470 17970 8136 5887 5131 8288 6584 4511 8986 4742 8337 4142 6668 14510 29700 17450 4967 8598 24380 6923 8399 24980 6245 5358 11560 6471 10820 6734 5600 12420
2021-06-01 7374 6013 5065 3233 8580 5981 15790 8344 9722 11890 23760 30730 19880 17720 8268 8275 8335 14690 22870 22540 102600 7171 19790 9372 30590 5094 25490 7144 50730 6863 29010 12690 14720 31180 6080 24650 6274 9152 7252 10190 17710 13500 14950 5857 14260 10240 26400 8237 10840 7584 16390 12670 12770 9186 21250 21860 6192 4960 4329 8171 17920 2690 3911 3181 5943 14320 2605 38360 24110 2854 8021 31430 8659 7588 10430 4314 20280 3005 12810 24220 11960 7891 27110 7191 31810 6555 4232 5427 4919 8268 6529 2925 4902 5198 18570 9713 8964 7422 30020 12500 5312 7450 5037 6959 5289 6083 12030 9667 8097 4882 13920 8308 44870 6468 3895 22710 7453 3442 21870 12020 4234 13220 21030 7772 21150 4436 6238 7133 27030 7176 8313 5159 3685 27180 6224 5733 25580 7947 8202 3030 7748 6845 15160 9202 6183 7784 20100 12540 35930 17440 24770 9597 64410 37580 21890 6629 7007 7614 48700 21030 12770 2828 54710 8372 26270 2762 3495 16410 2270 3390 6864 12820 7827 12710 3439 20360 4434 4229 1817 11690 6235 7419 24230 35870 11820 6600 2014 8764 6438 5604 22900 9781 10170 12880 4399 6158 18410 17670 7508 31170 8678 5009 23540 9629 3501 9847 4752 15910 9337 14490 14240 11190 33180 9406 6266 9456 11170 21400 4694 10990 21880 6451 21730 6727 5539 6941 7849 23820 34520 5636 5474 24280 5247 6950 44830 15180 15760 14800 6018 4346 4868 5856 15360 1743 5539 7653 4547 19570 4798 5958 8282 8714 11460 15070 14870 22660 7491 7929 17180 8607 6096 3564 21380 16090 20350 5234 22240 5519 16070 13460 17690 11670 18690 5587 3042 11090 10030 5444 11540 6390 17960 4273 29130 17030 5736 4925 5216 26380 26020 25140 22480 17970 8140 5887 5135 8290 6592 4516 8986 4743 8348 4143 6670 14510 29710 17460 4967 8601 24390 6924 8403 24980 6251 5359 11560 6472 10830 6735 5601 12420

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.