COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-06-01 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-06-01

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-06-01

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2812-2712-2712-2612-2712-262021-03-2512-2707-212021-03-2512-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1112-302021-05-0912-2612-2212-2912-2712-2712-2912-072021-01-072021-05-0911-132021-01-012021-05-2010-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2812-3012-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-2110-2812-3012-2212-2812-2512-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-3010-042021-01-0412-262021-01-0512-2912-2612-2712-2912-2411-0212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-282021-01-022021-02-2512-2110-1412-2712-0712-2612-2210-0412-2707-2112-2412-2910-0412-2412-2111-0912-0612-2607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-0609-2712-2712-2312-2712-2212-2812-2512-1812-252021-01-0412-2612-2610-0412-2112-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-2712-2812-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-2212-2912-2812-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0112-2112-2812-2112-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-212021-05-1812-2712-292021-01-0611-022021-01-0312-2112-2712-2711-0212-2112-262021-04-0312-2212-2112-3112-292021-01-0212-2211-012021-01-0712-0812-2112-2112-2112-2212-212021-03-2512-3107-2112-2212-2712-0607-212021-03-1812-2812-292021-01-0311-0312-2712-0612-2707-2112-0812-2710-2612-2612-2110-0411-0112-2112-2911-0412-212021-01-0412-2712-212021-01-0112-2912-2911-0212-2807-2112-2712-282021-05-1912-272021-01-062021-01-062021-01-0112-062021-01-042021-05-2012-2112-312021-01-0512-2210-0412-0612-2812-2112-2712-2812-1012-3112-1310-1812-3012-2812-2712-252021-01-262021-01-0212-2912-292021-01-0312-2312-2112-3112-2912-2211-0207-2112-3012-2512-2512-2112-2912-2112-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0910-0412-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-2712-2211-0712-2812-2711-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2512-292021-01-0212-2612-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-1912-2212-2312-2712-0611-1312-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-2012-1310-0411-0212-0710-0412-2212-2312-2212-2712-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-2512-3112-2112-3012-2611-02
Peak daily increment 92 102 61 88 97 40 77 73 119 106 170 110 171 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 128 110 108 52 252 426 1250 75 157 65 95 58 197 50 484 15 434 228 107 524 155 233 306 320 107 508 94 186 62 122 123 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 107 303 40 90 268 52 197 249 283 59 91 71 65 266 20 243 5 35 53 94 285 34 553 288 38 181 598 151 69 189 72 58 246 27 170 248 187 118 322 119 87 536 308 60 52 71 76 160 106 25 51 235 204 102 163 147 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 80 69 90 73 94 119 150 125 54 38 122 82 597 92 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 219 59 201 57 401 172 103 338 101 106 136 120 476 101 159 52 76 442 57 116 452 143 83 74 134 18 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 75 311 428 107 1449 284 104 456 71 230 102 727 27 200 90 36 368 92 419 25 46 106 298 37 62 153 186 27 213 302 361 79 62 66 23 105 63 122 85 723 190 212 192 23 50 137 105 51 394 105 58 122 107 41 55 277 158 121 224 90 68 123 3 125 44 14 58 154 120 207 43 102 25 623 105 81 176 151 286 52 188 39 132 139 56 96 198 80 85 59 174 36 25 162 450 42 83 82 403 65 131 573 25 209 244 167 97 42 111 102 69 181 27 42 86 72 448 95 79 108 80 66 102 115 247 293 450 131 156 219 94 55 112 26 189 138 197 66 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 123 56 109 46 141 352 90 44 138 122 360 139 51 101 14 559 151 90 110 120 84 250 329 449 390 227 259 138 117 160 65 154 87 29 78 166 42 65 67 115 217 217 265 83 148 430 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 594
Days since peak 155 156 156 157 156 157 68 156 315 68 162 156 175 162 160 155 160 231 156 160 150 141 153 23 157 161 154 156 156 154 176 145 23 200 151 12 220 161 156 156 169 177 155 153 158 162 157 161 153 153 156 176 216 162 156 157 175 177 156 175 162 161 162 216 153 161 155 158 161 162 149 162 162 153 240 148 157 147 154 157 156 154 159 211 156 155 156 156 162 158 162 162 155 150 96 162 230 156 176 157 161 240 156 315 159 154 240 159 162 204 177 157 315 213 156 153 155 162 157 161 158 162 161 146 247 156 160 156 161 155 158 165 158 148 157 157 240 162 155 162 162 156 162 147 161 156 155 162 162 162 155 156 155 162 160 170 156 170 154 161 154 155 155 153 161 157 162 151 162 155 162 156 161 155 155 158 212 162 14 156 154 146 211 149 162 156 156 211 162 157 59 161 162 152 154 150 161 212 145 175 162 162 162 161 162 68 152 315 161 156 177 315 75 155 154 149 210 156 177 156 315 175 156 218 157 162 240 212 162 154 209 162 148 156 162 151 154 154 211 155 315 156 155 13 156 146 146 151 177 148 12 162 152 147 161 240 177 155 162 156 155 173 152 170 226 153 155 156 158 126 150 154 154 149 160 162 152 154 161 211 315 153 158 158 162 154 162 162 155 157 158 148 161 204 240 162 161 163 149 155 156 161 162 169 155 157 162 158 158 217 161 206 155 156 212 162 160 161 156 162 176 181 158 154 150 157 153 148 156 162 157 162 164 161 160 156 177 200 162 156 161 157 175 162 212 156 156 168 158 211 162 161 162 156 157 163 170 240 211 176 240 161 160 161 156 154 161 161 155 156 161 156 151 155 158 152 162 153 157 211
Last total 7357 5986 2934 5069 8599 3256 8581 5991 1483 15807 8350 9729 9853 11933 3882 23776 30764 19908 4300 17731 8292 8269 8331 14591 22881 22572 102787 7216 20033 9426 6183 5986 30479 5085 25500 7235 50828 10863 6877 29097 6936 12664 14764 31202 6085 24732 6281 9156 7241 10289 17889 13489 14968 5862 14314 7137 10238 26400 8239 10837 8377 7566 16431 1794 12755 12773 3811 9200 21460 22028 6197 4961 4341 8269 18338 2662 11418 298 3930 3184 5947 14330 2607 38376 24109 2861 8026 31517 8675 7590 10465 4323 4358 20296 3012 12762 24225 11969 7893 27130 4228 7291 31864 6608 3057 4236 5456 4928 8275 6523 2948 4921 5247 18593 9723 8964 6649 5909 3005 7460 30032 12496 5336 7378 5045 6976 5303 5651 6085 12033 9674 8109 3122 4917 13961 8320 44803 6500 3898 10331 5566 22788 7468 3441 21911 12029 4248 13238 5235 21087 7995 7786 21195 4446 8962 6245 7137 27042 7170 8314 5167 3759 27209 6251 5754 25566 7974 8353 3035 7744 2314 6864 15203 9234 6171 7780 20125 12626 36000 17467 24805 9625 64540 37708 4953 21945 6642 6985 7612 48770 21127 12778 3782 2837 55255 8377 26312 2766 3496 6743 16479 2275 3386 6903 12792 7864 12707 3460 20412 4452 4223 1795 11700 6233 7439 24242 8509 35927 11461 11818 6632 2016 6090 8780 6452 5603 22976 9769 3071 10171 12948 4400 6174 18397 17696 7506 31165 8714 5013 23621 75 9669 3507 9915 4760 15907 9334 14501 4210 14384 11269 33208 9405 6294 9499 11224 21400 4761 11026 2656 21999 6448 6558 4908 21733 6736 5551 6942 7873 1691 1895 24070 34578 5645 2921 5472 24306 5243 6977 44756 236 15186 15828 14846 6018 4470 4876 5866 7376 15359 1731 5535 7649 4546 19616 5604 4811 6005 8424 5490 8719 11490 15047 14870 22759 7528 7931 17189 8610 5435 6109 3589 21682 16096 20366 5243 3821 22274 5549 16122 13461 17682 11673 18807 5445 5603 3043 11134 10028 5466 2957 11534 6434 17981 8088 4284 6470 1012 29204 17216 5747 4931 7482 5274 26478 26100 25180 22569 18023 7223 8165 5896 7956 5127 8301 6582 1194 4523 9010 4749 8352 4158 6660 14558 29923 17475 4981 8604 24480 6948 8490 25001 6240 5379 11559 6476 10882 6759 5610 12434
Last daily increment 12 8 0 0 1 11 2 1 3 9 5 8 5 14 1 7 19 27 1 2 5 2 4 34 15 7 96 11 154 25 2 2 111 2 3 15 78 5 5 23 2 0 7 21 0 28 2 2 1 34 50 0 11 2 28 2 4 2 1 2 2 8 18 0 15 0 16 6 63 53 3 1 4 23 153 19 1 0 0 2 3 7 4 17 11 1 5 23 9 1 6 3 0 7 5 8 21 6 1 13 0 49 32 18 1 3 10 10 1 2 15 5 19 13 2 1 0 0 3 12 14 3 7 1 1 18 4 2 1 22 0 2 3 10 11 8 151 15 2 1 1 18 7 2 20 10 4 14 3 20 2 8 9 5 0 1 1 7 3 1 6 12 21 6 7 22 9 36 3 1 0 4 13 13 2 3 19 16 53 4 32 5 95 55 0 16 2 0 2 17 20 2 4 2 215 1 14 1 0 1 21 2 5 10 10 5 8 12 16 2 0 5 1 1 11 23 6 20 1 11 25 2 3 15 4 0 39 7 2 3 23 1 5 4 16 3 27 9 3 30 1 6 0 15 11 6 1 9 0 53 21 7 4 9 19 30 1 15 6 3 50 2 38 1 7 4 3 6 6 0 1 98 29 4 1 0 19 8 9 23 0 2 21 11 3 38 6 4 5 6 0 5 1 1 46 0 5 6 46 1 1 9 0 6 37 15 4 8 4 7 0 13 93 5 8 3 2 14 5 9 0 3 6 29 3 2 0 16 2 5 5 1 16 4 4 1 0 0 22 54 9 1 0 19 30 18 20 39 25 5 5 1 1 2 4 7 0 10 7 1 13 8 2 24 72 5 4 4 29 4 23 9 3 4 0 1 16 13 3 7
Last week 34 23 8 7 7 45 18 16 12 42 18 20 20 63 4 43 67 70 4 20 23 12 16 191 66 36 435 47 603 80 2 4 768 11 30 92 296 13 20 131 15 5 47 107 12 119 7 9 12 141 262 3 88 12 74 10 27 33 4 9 4 21 113 4 101 7 30 19 241 172 8 7 13 110 534 40 15 1 25 10 20 22 7 60 42 8 19 154 29 4 38 13 13 27 9 59 62 24 7 65 9 153 153 90 3 5 82 18 20 9 43 30 133 50 19 13 4 7 6 43 53 9 31 7 14 72 18 11 24 129 16 16 15 52 64 29 725 44 7 11 9 98 21 8 66 19 13 45 28 78 8 35 60 20 3 8 9 35 10 13 41 92 128 31 22 101 32 164 17 5 0 20 56 52 6 12 47 116 398 35 161 38 408 250 0 73 19 5 13 100 120 16 11 15 826 14 63 14 4 1 75 6 12 39 36 42 30 62 82 16 6 12 11 7 27 124 22 92 9 50 92 7 6 28 21 6 238 26 10 16 126 5 23 18 49 9 91 43 10 150 1 49 9 78 51 24 23 49 3 197 131 66 11 35 94 189 8 87 38 4 203 9 174 6 58 19 13 15 41 5 1 342 78 20 8 3 59 22 36 111 0 16 91 58 7 146 14 11 8 25 3 24 13 5 209 3 25 54 148 7 8 40 22 16 111 44 19 31 11 43 18 62 320 32 31 14 7 52 30 63 9 14 37 141 13 18 5 61 5 27 17 5 58 25 10 16 2 2 89 215 14 7 2 50 135 101 67 125 65 18 44 11 6 12 22 28 2 33 26 8 68 22 8 91 272 37 15 17 112 23 102 35 25 25 9 5 61 32 12 48
Previous peak date07-2107-21 -- --10-2707-2112-2110-07 --12-21 --10-21 --10-25 -- -- -- --10-20 -- --10-2611-0212-2110-07 --11-02 --10-1310-13 --10-2510-15 --11-0212-2105-0310-26 -- -- -- --10-1611-02 -- -- -- --10-1209-2710-2709-02 -- --10-01 -- -- --10-25 -- --10-10 -- --11-02 -- --10-2710-18 --10-20 -- --10-1307-2107-2110-14 -- -- -- --10-29 --04-2010-3110-31 --10-2910-17 -- -- --10-2110-2712-2810-01 --10-12 -- --07-2107-21 -- -- --11-0107-2110-27 -- --07-2110-27 -- -- --10-30 --10-20 --10-06 -- -- --10-18 --07-21 -- -- --07-21 -- -- --10-1510-2910-1107-21 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-2810-2710-14 --10-12 --10-2710-30 -- -- --10-29 -- --10-1710-2707-21 --11-01 -- -- --10-1307-21 --06-11 -- -- -- -- -- --10-1310-2709-29 --10-0804-1411-02 -- --10-31 --10-1209-2812-27 -- -- --11-0210-25 -- -- -- --10-15 -- -- --10-1212-2111-03 --09-30 -- -- --12-07 -- --11-02 -- -- --09-24 -- --10-14 -- -- --07-21 -- --10-31 -- --11-0308-02 -- --11-0211-01 --10-22 -- -- --12-2607-21 --11-0211-02 --11-0212-29 --11-0310-26 --07-21 --10-1110-10 --10-19 --10-11 -- -- -- --10-13 -- -- --11-0211-0210-3107-21 --09-3010-25 -- -- --10-28 -- -- --07-21 -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- --07-21 -- -- --10-13 --10-24 -- -- -- -- --10-1710-0810-29 -- --07-2110-1810-12 -- -- --10-0610-31 -- -- -- --10-1811-04 -- --10-2910-1110-18 -- -- -- -- --10-26 -- -- --10-17 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-22 -- --10-22 -- -- -- -- --07-21 -- --07-21 --10-15 --10-1610-24 -- --09-3010-3010-11 --11-03 --10-1910-28 --10-17 -- --
Previous peak daily increment 616 365 80 295 134 40 260 61 40 31 75 271 233 262 1226 166 98 54 234 363 142 55 19 62 1197 57 72 160 31 54 39 60 294 35 120 54 62 1272 83 35 57 68 129 18 69 22 25 164 25 206 59 226 710 39 383 25 191 31 24 30 29 56 475 687 43 127 72 1766 70 33 54 60 69 57 38 22 44 144 49 59 248 45 46 349 153 81 75 479 56 71 480 273 2237 61 44 109 105 87 25 191 2429 91 53 1007 82 56 68 1343 64 257 108 230 139 354 150 174 88 41 459 41 46 194 65 67 406 233 81 152 189 33 104 226 66 876 66 75 20 118 77 149 184 120 129 18 172 46 89 27 17 45 144 135 23 307 376 24 319 68 141 22 25 38 54 32 67
Low between peaks 0 -1 28 0 8 18 13 26 -44 8 37 20 -12 48 303 55 29 19 17 23 -8 27 -19 21 68 19 34 54 12 23 7 26 28 -43 -38 17 31 -11 -4 -18 12 1 39 -9 28 -31 9 53 8 34 -47 -2 -3 -13 -3 -32 -1 10 -10 8 -67 19 -4 -5 -9 24 23 -7 22 -40 23 15 -120 -7 19 -66 -54 -1 15 21 -2 0 18 26 21 23 6 120 21 21 58 7 114 21 -25 39 6 35 8 7 18 23 -9 -7 35 16 7 50 28 58 3 1 20 37 38 -9 22 13 -2 -20 -118 62 22 16 36 92 19 -4 26 14 31 -2 24 -7 28 24 -77 30 38 -1 43 43 58 -23 32 15 31 11 7 6 -31 -27 -71 -2 -2 -25 77 -103 19 -17 -8 8 27 12 -4

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-02 to 2021-06-08

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarmarthenshireCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLichfieldLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LanarkshireSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTelford and WrekinTest ValleyTewkesburyThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-06-01 7357 5986 2934 5069 8599 3256 8581 5991 1483 15807 8350 9729 9853 11933 23776 30764 19908 17731 8292 8269 8331 14591 22881 22572 102787 7216 20033 9426 30479 5085 25500 7235 50828 10863 6877 29097 6936 14764 31202 6085 24732 6281 9156 7241 10289 17889 14968 5862 14314 7137 10238 26400 10837 7566 16431 12755 12773 3811 9200 21460 22028 6197 4961 4341 8269 18338 2662 11418 3930 3184 5947 14330 2607 38376 24109 2861 8026 31517 8675 10465 4323 4358 20296 3012 12762 24225 11969 7893 27130 4228 7291 31864 6608 5456 4928 8275 6523 2948 4921 5247 18593 9723 8964 5909 3005 7460 30032 12496 5336 7378 5045 6976 5303 5651 6085 12033 9674 8109 3122 4917 13961 8320 44803 6500 3898 10331 5566 22788 7468 3441 21911 12029 4248 13238 5235 21087 7995 7786 21195 4446 6245 7137 27042 7170 8314 5167 3759 27209 6251 5754 25566 7974 8353 3035 6864 15203 9234 6171 7780 20125 12626 36000 17467 24805 9625 64540 37708 21945 6642 7612 48770 21127 12778 3782 2837 55255 8377 26312 2766 16479 2275 3386 6903 12792 7864 12707 3460 20412 4452 4223 1795 11700 6233 7439 24242 8509 35927 11461 11818 6632 2016 6090 8780 6452 5603 22976 9769 3071 10171 12948 6174 18397 17696 7506 31165 8714 5013 23621 9669 3507 9915 4760 15907 9334 14501 14384 11269 33208 9405 6294 9499 11224 21400 4761 11026 21999 6448 6558 4908 21733 6736 5551 6942 7873 24070 34578 5645 2921 24306 5243 6977 44756 15186 15828 14846 6018 4470 4876 5866 7376 15359 5535 7649 19616 4811 6005 8424 5490 8719 11490 15047 14870 22759 7528 7931 17189 8610 5435 6109 3589 21682 16096 20366 5243 3821 22274 5549 16122 13461 17682 11673 18807 5445 5603 11134 5466 2957 6434 17981 8088 4284 29204 17216 5747 4931 5274 26478 26100 25180 22569 18023 7223 8165 5896 7956 5127 8301 6582 4523 9010 4749 8352 4158 6660 14558 29923 17475 4981 8604 24480 6948 8490 25001 6240 5379 11559 10882 6759 5610 12434
2021-06-02 7363 5993 2935 5069 8599 3261 8584 5993 1485 15810 8350 9730 9853 11940 23780 30770 19920 17730 8293 8272 8332 14650 22890 22580 102900 7230 20150 9442 30700 5094 25500 7247 50870 10860 6880 29100 6937 14770 31200 6085 24760 6282 9157 7247 10310 17930 14980 5864 14330 7137 10240 26410 10840 7570 16450 12770 12770 3817 9201 21490 22060 6198 4961 4343 8291 18440 2671 11420 3931 3185 5948 14330 2608 38380 24110 2861 8027 31540 8676 10470 4323 4359 20300 3012 12770 24240 11970 7893 27130 4229 7319 31870 6626 5467 4928 8276 6525 2954 4921 5265 18600 9723 8964 5910 3007 7467 30040 12500 5342 7379 5047 6987 5303 5651 6089 12050 9676 8109 3123 4926 13960 8321 44920 6500 3898 10330 5566 22800 7469 3442 21920 12030 4250 13250 5237 21110 7995 7790 21200 4449 6245 7138 27050 7173 8317 5169 3771 27230 6254 5759 25600 7974 8389 3038 6866 15220 9240 6176 7784 20130 12640 36120 17470 24830 9625 64540 37710 21950 6644 7615 48770 21140 12780 3783 2839 55410 8380 26320 2768 16490 2275 3389 6907 12800 7869 12710 3470 20420 4454 4224 1796 11700 6233 7441 24260 8509 35940 11470 11830 6645 2016 6092 8782 6452 5604 23020 9773 3071 10170 12970 6175 18400 17700 7508 31180 8717 5014 23650 9669 3508 9924 4768 15920 9335 14510 14430 11270 33220 9407 6296 9517 11260 21400 4773 11030 22030 6448 6589 4908 21740 6738 5552 6944 7878 24160 34580 5646 2922 24310 5248 6979 44810 15190 15850 14850 6018 4493 4878 5866 7376 15360 5543 7650 19680 4813 6010 8462 5490 8719 11500 15060 14870 22790 7532 7933 17190 8611 5439 6112 3597 21760 16100 20370 5243 3822 22270 5558 16130 13460 17690 11680 18820 5445 5604 11130 5466 2958 6447 17980 8088 4285 29210 17220 5747 4932 5276 26490 26100 25190 22580 18020 7225 8172 5896 7956 5129 8302 6591 4529 9010 4750 8361 4159 6666 14570 29970 17480 4983 8606 24480 6951 8508 25000 6245 5379 11560 10890 6762 5611 12440
2021-06-03 7365 6002 2935 5070 8599 3261 8591 5993 1485 15820 8350 9731 9855 11940 23780 30770 19920 17730 8293 8276 8333 14690 22900 22580 103000 7242 20260 9446 30850 5098 25500 7256 50870 10860 6880 29110 6937 14770 31210 6085 24780 6282 9157 7252 10340 17970 14990 5866 14340 7137 10240 26420 10840 7572 16460 12790 12770 3817 9201 21510 22090 6198 4962 4343 8311 18530 2673 11420 3931 3185 5952 14330 2608 38380 24120 2861 8027 31540 8676 10470 4323 4359 20300 3012 12810 24260 11970 7893 27140 4230 7346 31880 6644 5469 4928 8276 6530 2955 4923 5267 18610 9723 8966 5912 3008 7469 30040 12500 5347 7391 5047 6987 5303 5652 6097 12070 9676 8109 3123 4938 13960 8324 45020 6500 3898 10330 5568 22800 7469 3443 21920 12030 4250 13250 5237 21120 7995 7790 21210 4450 6246 7140 27050 7179 8319 5173 3782 27240 6254 5765 25620 7974 8420 3038 6866 15230 9240 6178 7787 20130 12640 36230 17470 24850 9625 64570 37730 21950 6644 7622 48770 21140 12780 3783 2839 55570 8383 26320 2768 16490 2275 3391 6911 12820 7869 12720 3475 20420 4454 4227 1797 11700 6233 7443 24280 8509 35940 11470 11840 6645 2016 6094 8782 6452 5606 23070 9782 3071 10170 12970 6175 18400 17700 7511 31180 8717 5014 23670 9670 3508 9924 4770 15930 9337 14520 14480 11270 33220 9407 6296 9533 11300 21400 4783 11030 22060 6448 6621 4908 21750 6739 5552 6947 7878 24230 34580 5646 2922 24310 5254 6979 44840 15190 15870 14850 6019 4512 4878 5866 7376 15360 5546 7652 19730 4813 6010 8499 5490 8720 11500 15070 14870 22810 7532 7933 17190 8611 5447 6112 3597 21810 16100 20370 5243 3824 22270 5567 16130 13460 17690 11680 18840 5445 5604 11130 5466 2958 6459 17980 8088 4285 29210 17220 5747 4935 5276 26500 26100 25190 22600 18020 7225 8174 5896 7956 5132 8302 6598 4535 9013 4750 8361 4159 6672 14570 30010 17480 4983 8606 24480 6951 8524 25000 6254 5379 11570 10890 6762 5611 12440
2021-06-04 7369 6006 2935 5070 8599 3261 8596 5993 1485 15830 8351 9732 9856 11940 23780 30770 19930 17730 8293 8277 8335 14720 22910 22580 103000 7255 20380 9456 30970 5101 25510 7267 50890 10860 6880 29110 6937 14780 31220 6085 24800 6282 9157 7255 10360 18010 15010 5868 14350 7137 10240 26430 10840 7575 16470 12800 12770 3818 9201 21550 22120 6198 4962 4344 8326 18620 2678 11420 3931 3186 5954 14330 2608 38380 24130 2861 8027 31550 8676 10470 4323 4359 20300 3012 12830 24260 11970 7893 27140 4231 7371 31900 6661 5474 4928 8276 6534 2958 4926 5277 18610 9724 8966 5914 3009 7473 30050 12500 5352 7398 5047 6987 5304 5654 6104 12080 9677 8111 3123 4948 13960 8328 45130 6500 3898 10330 5569 22810 7469 3443 21920 12030 4250 13250 5237 21130 7995 7790 21220 4452 6246 7141 27050 7183 8322 5180 3793 27260 6254 5769 25640 7974 8446 3038 6866 15240 9241 6178 7788 20130 12640 36310 17470 24870 9627 64620 37750 21950 6644 7627 48780 21150 12780 3783 2841 55710 8384 26320 2768 16490 2275 3393 6917 12830 7869 12720 3483 20420 4454 4228 1798 11710 6233 7444 24300 8509 35940 11470 11850 6645 2016 6095 8782 6452 5607 23110 9788 3071 10170 12970 6175 18410 17700 7514 31200 8717 5014 23700 9673 3509 9924 4775 15930 9341 14520 14510 11270 33220 9409 6296 9545 11340 21400 4794 11030 22100 6449 6651 4908 21750 6740 5552 6949 7879 24300 34580 5646 2923 24320 5259 6979 44870 15190 15890 14850 6019 4532 4878 5866 7376 15360 5551 7654 19770 4813 6010 8535 5491 8720 11500 15070 14870 22840 7532 7933 17190 8612 5460 6112 3597 21880 16100 20380 5244 3826 22280 5576 16130 13460 17700 11680 18860 5445 5604 11130 5466 2958 6471 17980 8088 4285 29210 17230 5747 4936 5276 26510 26100 25190 22620 18020 7225 8179 5896 7956 5135 8302 6602 4541 9013 4750 8364 4159 6674 14570 30060 17480 4983 8606 24480 6951 8540 25000 6261 5379 11570 10890 6762 5611 12440
2021-06-05 7374 6013 2935 5070 8599 3261 8600 5993 1485 15840 8352 9735 9857 11940 23780 30770 19930 17740 8293 8280 8338 14740 22920 22590 103100 7267 20480 9466 31090 5104 25510 7278 50920 10860 6880 29130 6937 14780 31240 6085 24820 6282 9158 7255 10370 18050 15020 5870 14360 7138 10240 26440 10840 7577 16490 12820 12770 3822 9201 21580 22150 6199 4963 4346 8340 18700 2684 11420 3931 3187 5958 14330 2608 38390 24130 2861 8027 31570 8676 10470 4323 4359 20300 3012 12850 24270 11970 7893 27150 4233 7394 31910 6678 5482 4928 8276 6537 2962 4930 5289 18620 9726 8966 5914 3010 7478 30050 12500 5357 7402 5048 6989 5304 5654 6109 12100 9678 8111 3123 4958 13960 8330 45240 6500 3898 10330 5569 22810 7469 3444 21920 12030 4250 13250 5238 21150 7995 7790 21230 4454 6246 7143 27050 7187 8324 5185 3804 27270 6254 5773 25650 7976 8471 3038 6866 15250 9244 6180 7790 20130 12650 36390 17470 24890 9632 64670 37780 21950 6644 7631 48790 21160 12780 3783 2842 55850 8385 26320 2769 16490 2275 3395 6920 12840 7869 12730 3491 20420 4454 4230 1799 11710 6233 7445 24320 8509 35940 11480 11860 6647 2016 6095 8782 6452 5609 23150 9793 3071 10170 12980 6175 18410 17700 7516 31210 8717 5015 23720 9675 3509 9926 4781 15940 9343 14530 14550 11270 33230 9410 6296 9564 11380 21400 4804 11030 22120 6450 6681 4908 21760 6742 5552 6952 7882 24370 34590 5646 2924 24320 5264 6979 44900 15190 15910 14850 6019 4551 4878 5866 7376 15360 5555 7656 19810 4813 6010 8569 5491 8720 11500 15080 14870 22860 7532 7935 17190 8613 5469 6114 3599 21940 16110 20380 5244 3827 22280 5583 16130 13460 17700 11690 18870 5445 5604 11130 5466 2958 6483 17980 8088 4286 29210 17240 5747 4938 5276 26520 26110 25190 22640 18020 7226 8184 5896 7956 5138 8302 6608 4546 9015 4750 8371 4159 6676 14570 30100 17480 4983 8606 24480 6951 8555 25010 6267 5379 11570 10890 6762 5611 12450
2021-06-06 7379 6016 2935 5070 8599 3261 8603 5994 1485 15840 8353 9739 9859 11940 23790 30780 19940 17740 8293 8283 8342 14780 22930 22590 103100 7279 20590 9478 31180 5105 25510 7289 50950 10860 6880 29140 6937 14780 31260 6087 24840 6282 9158 7259 10380 18090 15030 5872 14380 7139 10240 26450 10850 7580 16500 12830 12770 3826 9201 21610 22190 6199 4963 4347 8347 18790 2690 11430 3931 3188 5960 14330 2609 38390 24140 2861 8027 31580 8676 10470 4323 4359 20310 3012 12860 24280 11970 7893 27160 4236 7418 31930 6695 5490 4928 8276 6539 2966 4932 5303 18620 9728 8966 5916 3012 7483 30060 12500 5363 7405 5050 6994 5306 5655 6114 12120 9679 8111 3123 4968 13970 8337 45350 6500 3898 10330 5570 22820 7469 3445 21920 12030 4250 13260 5239 21160 7995 7792 21240 4457 6246 7144 27050 7190 8327 5189 3815 27290 6254 5778 25660 7977 8487 3040 6866 15260 9248 6182 7792 20140 12660 36470 17470 24920 9633 64720 37800 21960 6644 7634 48790 21170 12780 3783 2843 55990 8386 26320 2770 16490 2275 3397 6923 12850 7871 12730 3499 20420 4454 4232 1801 11710 6233 7448 24330 8509 35940 11480 11870 6655 2016 6095 8782 6452 5610 23200 9798 3071 10170 12990 6175 18420 17700 7518 31230 8717 5016 23740 9678 3510 9932 4788 15940 9349 14530 14590 11280 33230 9411 6296 9579 11420 21410 4815 11030 22150 6450 6710 4908 21770 6744 5552 6954 7885 24430 34600 5646 2925 24330 5269 6979 44930 15190 15930 14850 6019 4570 4879 5866 7376 15360 5560 7658 19860 4815 6010 8603 5491 8720 11500 15090 14870 22880 7532 7936 17190 8614 5476 6115 3603 22000 16110 20390 5244 3828 22280 5591 16130 13460 17700 11690 18890 5445 5604 11140 5466 2958 6494 17980 8089 4287 29210 17260 5747 4939 5276 26540 26120 25190 22660 18020 7228 8190 5896 7956 5140 8302 6613 4551 9015 4750 8378 4159 6678 14570 30140 17480 4983 8606 24480 6951 8571 25010 6272 5380 11570 10890 6762 5611 12450
2021-06-07 7385 6022 2936 5070 8599 3262 8606 5995 1486 15850 8355 9743 9862 11940 23790 30780 19950 17740 8293 8286 8347 14810 22940 22590 103200 7291 20710 9490 31320 5108 25520 7301 50990 10860 6881 29160 6937 14790 31290 6087 24860 6283 9159 7262 10420 18130 15040 5874 14390 7140 10240 26450 10850 7584 16520 12850 12770 3832 9201 21650 22220 6200 4963 4349 8370 18870 2697 11430 3931 3188 5961 14330 2610 38400 24140 2861 8027 31600 8676 10470 4323 4359 20310 3012 12870 24290 11970 7893 27160 4238 7441 31960 6711 5500 4928 8276 6542 2970 4936 5318 18630 9733 8966 5917 3013 7488 30060 12500 5368 7407 5051 7002 5309 5655 6119 12140 9680 8111 3123 4977 13970 8341 45460 6500 3898 10330 5571 22830 7469 3446 21920 12030 4250 13260 5241 21180 7996 7796 21250 4459 6246 7145 27050 7193 8329 5198 3827 27310 6254 5782 25680 7980 8524 3042 6866 15280 9252 6183 7795 20140 12670 36560 17480 24940 9642 64800 37840 21970 6645 7638 48800 21190 12780 3783 2845 56160 8389 26320 2772 16490 2275 3399 6932 12860 7875 12740 3508 20430 4454 4233 1802 11710 6233 7451 24350 8512 35950 11480 11880 6665 2017 6095 8782 6452 5611 23240 9803 3072 10170 13010 6175 18420 17700 7520 31250 8717 5017 23770 9686 3511 9939 4795 15940 9351 14540 14630 11290 33240 9413 6296 9594 11450 21410 4826 11040 22190 6452 6740 4908 21770 6746 5552 6956 7890 24500 34610 5646 2927 24340 5273 6979 44950 15200 15950 14860 6019 4589 4880 5866 7376 15360 5564 7659 19900 4816 6010 8636 5491 8720 11500 15090 14870 22910 7532 7938 17200 8615 5485 6118 3610 22060 16110 20390 5244 3829 22290 5599 16130 13460 17700 11690 18910 5446 5604 11140 5467 2958 6506 17980 8089 4288 29220 17290 5747 4941 5276 26560 26140 25200 22690 18030 7232 8196 5898 7956 5142 8302 6618 4557 9019 4750 8387 4159 6679 14580 30170 17480 4983 8607 24480 6951 8586 25020 6278 5382 11570 10890 6762 5611 12460
2021-06-08 7390 6030 2937 5070 8599 3266 8609 5997 1487 15860 8358 9748 9865 11940 23790 30790 19960 17740 8293 8286 8353 14840 22950 22600 103300 7304 20820 9503 31440 5110 25520 7312 51030 10860 6884 29170 6937 14800 31320 6087 24890 6284 9160 7262 10440 18170 15050 5876 14400 7141 10240 26460 10850 7587 16530 12860 12780 3837 9203 21690 22250 6201 4965 4351 8388 18950 2704 11430 3932 3189 5963 14340 2611 38410 24150 2861 8027 31620 8676 10470 4323 4359 20320 3012 12890 24300 11980 7893 27170 4241 7464 31980 6727 5509 4934 8276 6544 2975 4939 5335 18640 9735 8966 5917 3014 7493 30070 12500 5373 7409 5053 7010 5311 5656 6123 12160 9682 8112 3123 4986 13980 8346 45580 6506 3899 10330 5571 22850 7469 3448 21920 12030 4250 13270 5242 21200 7996 7801 21260 4462 6246 7146 27050 7195 8332 5204 3838 27330 6254 5786 25700 7986 8553 3044 6868 15290 9257 6184 7797 20150 12680 36600 17480 24960 9645 64880 37870 21970 6647 7641 48810 21200 12780 3783 2847 56290 8390 26320 2773 16490 2275 3402 6937 12860 7879 12740 3518 20430 4456 4235 1803 11710 6234 7459 24370 8515 35960 11480 11890 6676 2017 6097 8782 6453 5612 23280 9807 3073 10170 13020 6175 18420 17700 7522 31270 8717 5018 23800 9689 3512 9947 4803 15950 9352 14550 14660 11300 33250 9415 6296 9610 11480 21410 4837 11040 22220 6453 6769 4908 21780 6749 5552 6959 7894 24570 34630 5646 2928 24350 5278 6979 44970 15200 15960 14870 6021 4609 4882 5866 7376 15370 5568 7660 19930 4818 6010 8669 5491 8721 11500 15090 14870 22930 7532 7939 17200 8616 5487 6120 3616 22120 16120 20400 5244 3831 22300 5606 16130 13460 17710 11700 18940 5447 5604 11150 5470 2958 6517 17980 8091 4290 29220 17330 5751 4942 5276 26580 26150 25210 22710 18040 7236 8203 5898 7956 5144 8302 6626 4562 9024 4750 8396 4159 6680 14590 30230 17480 4983 8608 24500 6954 8602 25020 6283 5385 11570 10890 6763 5611 12470

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-02 to 2021-06-08

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarmarthenshireCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLichfieldLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LanarkshireSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTelford and WrekinTest ValleyTewkesburyThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-06-01 7357 5986 2934 5069 8599 3256 8581 5991 1483 15807 8350 9729 9853 11933 23776 30764 19908 17731 8292 8269 8331 14591 22881 22572 102787 7216 20033 9426 30479 5085 25500 7235 50828 10863 6877 29097 6936 14764 31202 6085 24732 6281 9156 7241 10289 17889 14968 5862 14314 7137 10238 26400 10837 7566 16431 12755 12773 3811 9200 21460 22028 6197 4961 4341 8269 18338 2662 11418 3930 3184 5947 14330 2607 38376 24109 2861 8026 31517 8675 10465 4323 4358 20296 3012 12762 24225 11969 7893 27130 4228 7291 31864 6608 5456 4928 8275 6523 2948 4921 5247 18593 9723 8964 5909 3005 7460 30032 12496 5336 7378 5045 6976 5303 5651 6085 12033 9674 8109 3122 4917 13961 8320 44803 6500 3898 10331 5566 22788 7468 3441 21911 12029 4248 13238 5235 21087 7995 7786 21195 4446 6245 7137 27042 7170 8314 5167 3759 27209 6251 5754 25566 7974 8353 3035 6864 15203 9234 6171 7780 20125 12626 36000 17467 24805 9625 64540 37708 21945 6642 7612 48770 21127 12778 3782 2837 55255 8377 26312 2766 16479 2275 3386 6903 12792 7864 12707 3460 20412 4452 4223 1795 11700 6233 7439 24242 8509 35927 11461 11818 6632 2016 6090 8780 6452 5603 22976 9769 3071 10171 12948 6174 18397 17696 7506 31165 8714 5013 23621 9669 3507 9915 4760 15907 9334 14501 14384 11269 33208 9405 6294 9499 11224 21400 4761 11026 21999 6448 6558 4908 21733 6736 5551 6942 7873 24070 34578 5645 2921 24306 5243 6977 44756 15186 15828 14846 6018 4470 4876 5866 7376 15359 5535 7649 19616 4811 6005 8424 5490 8719 11490 15047 14870 22759 7528 7931 17189 8610 5435 6109 3589 21682 16096 20366 5243 3821 22274 5549 16122 13461 17682 11673 18807 5445 5603 11134 5466 2957 6434 17981 8088 4284 29204 17216 5747 4931 5274 26478 26100 25180 22569 18023 7223 8165 5896 7956 5127 8301 6582 4523 9010 4749 8352 4158 6660 14558 29923 17475 4981 8604 24480 6948 8490 25001 6240 5379 11559 10882 6759 5610 12434
2021-06-02 7365 5993 2935 5069 8601 3262 8584 5992 1485 15810 8352 9732 9856 11940 23780 30780 19920 17730 8295 8271 8334 14630 22890 22580 102900 7225 20150 9437 30640 5089 25500 7248 50890 10870 6882 29120 6938 14770 31220 6086 24750 6282 9158 7244 10320 17930 14980 5864 14330 7139 10240 26410 10840 7570 16450 12770 12770 3817 9203 21510 22060 6199 4962 4343 8288 18450 2673 11420 3932 3185 5949 14340 2609 38390 24110 2862 8029 31540 8679 10470 4325 4359 20300 3014 12770 24240 11970 7894 27140 4230 7323 31890 6625 5470 4932 8277 6525 2956 4924 5267 18600 9725 8965 5910 3006 7467 30040 12500 5341 7381 5047 6991 5305 5652 6088 12060 9676 8110 3124 4926 13970 8324 44940 6509 3899 10330 5567 22800 7471 3442 21920 12030 4250 13250 5238 21100 7996 7791 21200 4450 6246 7138 27050 7175 8317 5172 3771 27230 6254 5758 25590 7979 8382 3037 6867 15210 9241 6173 7782 20130 12640 36070 17470 24830 9629 64620 37760 21960 6645 7614 48780 21140 12780 3784 2839 55390 8381 26320 2768 16490 2276 3389 6909 12800 7868 12710 3472 20420 4453 4224 1798 11700 6234 7444 24260 8512 35940 11460 11830 6647 2017 6092 8786 6454 5604 23020 9774 3074 10170 12970 6176 18400 17700 7508 31180 8719 5015 23650 9674 3508 9924 4770 15910 9336 14510 14420 11290 33220 9408 6298 9515 11270 21400 4775 11030 22030 6449 6592 4909 21740 6739 5553 6945 7879 24140 34590 5648 2924 24320 5247 6982 44780 15190 15840 14850 6019 4493 4879 5869 7378 15360 5540 7652 19660 4814 6011 8455 5490 8720 11490 15050 14870 22780 7534 7935 17200 8612 5439 6111 3597 21740 16100 20370 5245 3823 22280 5555 16130 13460 17690 11680 18830 5446 5604 11140 5469 2959 6442 17980 8090 4285 29210 17240 5750 4932 5283 26500 26120 25190 22590 18030 7226 8171 5897 7958 5130 8304 6584 4529 9013 4750 8364 4161 6662 14570 29960 17480 4983 8608 24500 6952 8510 25010 6245 5381 11560 10890 6764 5612 12440
2021-06-03 7370 6002 2935 5071 8601 3265 8588 5993 1486 15820 8353 9732 9858 11950 23790 30780 19930 17740 8297 8274 8336 14670 22900 22580 102900 7230 20250 9440 30800 5092 25510 7258 50930 10870 6885 29130 6938 14770 31240 6087 24770 6282 9159 7247 10330 17970 15000 5866 14330 7140 10250 26410 10840 7571 16460 12780 12770 3817 9203 21530 22070 6200 4963 4345 8300 18500 2680 11420 3935 3186 5952 14340 2610 38390 24120 2863 8030 31560 8681 10470 4325 4359 20310 3015 12790 24250 11980 7894 27150 4233 7347 31910 6637 5481 4932 8278 6529 2959 4927 5284 18610 9727 8968 5912 3007 7469 30050 12500 5344 7387 5049 7000 5306 5653 6092 12080 9676 8112 3125 4935 13970 8326 45080 6514 3900 10330 5568 22810 7471 3443 21930 12030 4251 13250 5238 21100 7997 7794 21210 4453 6248 7139 27050 7178 8320 5177 3784 27250 6255 5760 25610 7981 8402 3040 6869 15220 9247 6175 7784 20140 12650 36160 17470 24860 9630 64670 37790 21960 6646 7617 48790 21150 12780 3784 2843 55500 8384 26330 2768 16500 2277 3392 6911 12810 7873 12720 3482 20430 4455 4225 1801 11700 6235 7446 24280 8513 35950 11460 11840 6657 2018 6093 8787 6455 5605 23070 9781 3074 10180 12980 6178 18410 17710 7511 31200 8725 5016 23670 9678 3509 9930 4778 15920 9339 14520 14450 11300 33220 9411 6299 9531 11310 21400 4786 11030 22060 6449 6625 4910 21750 6740 5553 6947 7886 24180 34590 5651 2926 24320 5250 6984 44800 15190 15850 14860 6019 4505 4880 5870 7379 15370 5544 7656 19700 4815 6013 8474 5490 8721 11500 15060 14880 22800 7534 7939 17200 8613 5442 6113 3602 21770 16100 20370 5247 3824 22290 5559 16130 13460 17690 11680 18840 5447 5606 11150 5471 2960 6445 17990 8092 4285 29220 17250 5751 4933 5286 26510 26120 25200 22600 18040 7226 8178 5899 7959 5134 8307 6590 4533 9015 4752 8372 4162 6665 14590 29980 17480 4983 8610 24510 6952 8525 25010 6251 5383 11560 10890 6765 5613 12450
2021-06-04 7379 6008 2935 5071 8601 3269 8591 5994 1488 15820 8355 9733 9859 11950 23790 30790 19940 17740 8298 8276 8339 14710 22910 22580 103000 7236 20350 9445 30940 5094 25510 7266 50960 10870 6888 29150 6939 14780 31260 6088 24790 6282 9161 7250 10350 18010 15010 5868 14330 7141 10250 26420 10840 7572 16480 12790 12780 3818 9204 21560 22080 6201 4964 4347 8309 18560 2688 11420 3938 3187 5955 14340 2611 38400 24130 2864 8031 31580 8683 10480 4325 4360 20310 3015 12810 24250 11980 7895 27160 4236 7367 31930 6651 5495 4933 8279 6532 2964 4930 5301 18610 9729 8969 5914 3007 7472 30050 12500 5347 7390 5051 7008 5308 5655 6095 12110 9677 8115 3125 4944 13980 8328 45200 6520 3901 10340 5568 22820 7472 3443 21930 12030 4251 13260 5240 21110 7998 7798 21210 4455 6249 7140 27060 7180 8323 5184 3794 27270 6257 5762 25630 7983 8422 3042 6870 15220 9251 6176 7786 20140 12660 36220 17470 24890 9632 64730 37830 21970 6648 7620 48800 21160 12790 3784 2845 55600 8386 26340 2769 16500 2278 3394 6913 12820 7875 12720 3493 20440 4456 4227 1803 11700 6235 7447 24300 8514 35960 11470 11840 6668 2019 6094 8788 6456 5606 23110 9786 3075 10180 12990 6179 18410 17710 7513 31210 8728 5017 23690 9683 3510 9935 4786 15920 9343 14520 14470 11320 33230 9414 6300 9544 11340 21400 4797 11040 22090 6450 6656 4910 21760 6742 5554 6950 7890 24230 34600 5653 2928 24320 5252 6986 44830 15190 15860 14860 6020 4519 4881 5871 7379 15370 5548 7660 19740 4816 6016 8491 5491 8721 11500 15070 14880 22810 7535 7942 17200 8614 5447 6116 3609 21800 16110 20380 5250 3825 22290 5562 16140 13460 17690 11690 18860 5448 5608 11150 5473 2961 6449 17990 8093 4286 29220 17250 5752 4934 5288 26520 26140 25200 22610 18040 7228 8185 5900 7959 5137 8309 6593 4539 9015 4754 8383 4164 6666 14600 30000 17490 4983 8613 24520 6952 8538 25010 6256 5384 11570 10900 6767 5614 12460
2021-06-05 7385 6015 2936 5072 8601 3273 8594 5995 1489 15830 8357 9735 9861 11960 23800 30800 19950 17740 8300 8278 8341 14750 22920 22580 103100 7241 20420 9451 31080 5097 25510 7275 51000 10870 6890 29160 6940 14780 31280 6090 24800 6283 9162 7251 10360 18040 15020 5869 14340 7143 10250 26420 10840 7574 16490 12790 12780 3819 9205 21580 22100 6203 4965 4348 8316 18620 2695 11420 3941 3188 5958 14340 2612 38410 24130 2865 8032 31600 8685 10480 4326 4360 20310 3016 12820 24260 11980 7896 27170 4239 7388 31940 6664 5507 4934 8280 6534 2968 4933 5319 18620 9731 8970 5914 3007 7474 30060 12500 5351 7392 5053 7018 5309 5655 6099 12130 9679 8116 3126 4951 13990 8330 45310 6525 3902 10340 5568 22820 7473 3444 21940 12030 4252 13270 5241 21120 7999 7802 21210 4458 6250 7141 27060 7182 8326 5189 3804 27290 6259 5764 25640 7986 8443 3045 6872 15230 9255 6177 7787 20140 12680 36270 17470 24910 9635 64780 37850 21970 6650 7622 48810 21170 12790 3785 2846 55700 8388 26340 2770 16510 2279 3397 6915 12830 7877 12730 3502 20450 4458 4228 1805 11700 6236 7448 24320 8515 35970 11470 11850 6679 2019 6094 8790 6457 5607 23140 9790 3076 10180 13010 6181 18410 17710 7515 31230 8731 5018 23720 9687 3510 9938 4794 15920 9345 14530 14500 11330 33230 9416 6301 9560 11380 21400 4808 11040 22110 6451 6686 4910 21770 6744 5555 6952 7893 24270 34600 5655 2930 24330 5255 6989 44850 15200 15870 14860 6020 4533 4882 5873 7380 15370 5552 7662 19770 4817 6019 8506 5492 8722 11500 15070 14880 22820 7537 7945 17200 8616 5450 6118 3615 21840 16110 20380 5251 3826 22300 5565 16140 13470 17690 11690 18870 5449 5610 11160 5475 2963 6453 17990 8094 4286 29220 17260 5753 4935 5290 26520 26150 25210 22620 18050 7229 8192 5901 7959 5140 8312 6599 4545 9016 4756 8393 4165 6667 14610 30020 17490 4984 8615 24530 6953 8550 25010 6260 5385 11570 10900 6769 5615 12460
2021-06-06 7391 6021 2936 5073 8602 3277 8597 5996 1491 15830 8358 9737 9863 11960 23800 30800 19960 17740 8302 8281 8344 14790 22930 22590 103100 7246 20500 9457 31190 5099 25520 7286 51040 10870 6893 29170 6941 14780 31290 6092 24820 6283 9164 7254 10380 18070 15040 5871 14340 7144 10260 26420 10840 7575 16510 12800 12780 3821 9205 21610 22120 6204 4966 4350 8325 18670 2702 11420 3944 3189 5960 14350 2613 38420 24140 2866 8034 31620 8688 10480 4326 4361 20320 3016 12830 24270 11980 7896 27170 4242 7407 31960 6675 5519 4935 8282 6537 2972 4935 5334 18620 9734 8971 5915 3007 7477 30070 12510 5354 7394 5055 7027 5310 5657 6102 12140 9680 8117 3127 4958 14000 8332 45440 6530 3903 10340 5569 22830 7474 3444 21940 12040 4253 13270 5242 21120 8000 7805 21220 4461 6251 7142 27060 7184 8329 5194 3812 27310 6260 5765 25660 7988 8461 3048 6873 15240 9260 6180 7789 20150 12690 36330 17480 24930 9636 64820 37880 21980 6651 7624 48810 21190 12790 3785 2847 55790 8390 26350 2772 16510 2280 3399 6917 12840 7879 12730 3511 20460 4459 4230 1807 11710 6237 7450 24340 8516 35980 11470 11860 6692 2020 6094 8791 6458 5608 23190 9794 3076 10180 13020 6182 18420 17720 7517 31240 8734 5020 23740 9690 3511 9943 4801 15920 9349 14540 14530 11350 33240 9419 6303 9574 11410 21400 4819 11040 22140 6451 6716 4911 21780 6746 5556 6954 7899 24310 34600 5657 2933 24330 5257 6991 44870 15200 15880 14870 6021 4547 4884 5874 7381 15370 5557 7664 19810 4818 6022 8521 5492 8722 11510 15080 14880 22830 7538 7948 17210 8617 5453 6121 3622 21870 16110 20380 5252 3828 22300 5568 16150 13470 17700 11700 18890 5450 5612 11160 5477 2964 6458 17990 8095 4287 29230 17260 5754 4936 5292 26530 26160 25220 22640 18050 7231 8199 5902 7960 5143 8314 6604 4550 9017 4757 8403 4166 6670 14610 30040 17490 4984 8617 24540 6953 8563 25020 6265 5386 11570 10900 6771 5616 12470
2021-06-07 7401 6029 2937 5074 8602 3282 8599 5998 1492 15840 8359 9740 9864 11970 23800 30810 19970 17740 8304 8283 8348 14830 22930 22590 103200 7252 20610 9464 31340 5103 25520 7296 51080 10870 6896 29190 6941 14780 31320 6093 24840 6283 9166 7257 10390 18110 15050 5873 14340 7145 10260 26430 10840 7576 16520 12810 12780 3823 9206 21640 22130 6205 4967 4352 8338 18740 2710 11430 3947 3190 5962 14350 2614 38420 24140 2867 8037 31640 8690 10480 4327 4361 20320 3017 12840 24280 11990 7897 27180 4246 7429 31990 6691 5531 4937 8283 6540 2977 4937 5354 18630 9736 8972 5916 3008 7480 30070 12510 5357 7396 5057 7039 5312 5657 6105 12170 9682 8119 3128 4966 14000 8334 45580 6534 3904 10340 5569 22840 7475 3445 21950 12040 4254 13280 5244 21130 8001 7810 21220 4464 6251 7143 27060 7187 8331 5201 3822 27330 6262 5766 25680 7990 8486 3051 6875 15240 9263 6181 7792 20150 12710 36390 17480 24960 9639 64880 37910 21990 6653 7626 48820 21200 12790 3786 2848 55910 8393 26360 2773 16520 2280 3401 6921 12850 7881 12740 3522 20470 4461 4231 1810 11710 6238 7453 24350 8517 35990 11470 11860 6705 2020 6095 8793 6459 5609 23230 9798 3077 10180 13040 6183 18420 17720 7519 31260 8737 5021 23760 9695 3512 9950 4810 15930 9351 14540 14550 11370 33250 9421 6305 9590 11440 21410 4830 11050 22170 6452 6745 4911 21780 6748 5557 6957 7905 24360 34610 5659 2936 24340 5259 6994 44890 15200 15890 14880 6022 4560 4885 5874 7381 15380 5561 7667 19850 4820 6025 8538 5493 8722 11510 15080 14890 22840 7539 7951 17210 8618 5456 6124 3631 21910 16120 20390 5253 3828 22310 5571 16150 13470 17700 11700 18910 5451 5614 11170 5480 2965 6463 17990 8096 4287 29230 17270 5755 4937 5295 26540 26170 25220 22650 18050 7233 8205 5904 7960 5147 8316 6610 4555 9018 4759 8416 4167 6672 14620 30060 17500 4984 8620 24550 6954 8578 25020 6271 5387 11570 10910 6774 5617 12480
2021-06-08 7409 6037 2937 5074 8603 3287 8602 6000 1494 15840 8361 9742 9865 11970 23810 30810 19970 17740 8305 8284 8351 14860 22940 22590 103300 7257 20700 9471 31510 5106 25520 7306 51120 10870 6900 29200 6942 14790 31330 6094 24850 6284 9167 7259 10410 18140 15060 5874 14350 7146 10270 26430 10850 7578 16530 12820 12780 3825 9207 21660 22150 6207 4969 4353 8349 18790 2719 11430 3950 3191 5964 14350 2615 38430 24150 2868 8038 31660 8693 10490 4328 4362 20320 3017 12850 24290 11990 7898 27190 4249 7450 32010 6703 5539 4940 8285 6542 2982 4938 5372 18630 9739 8973 5917 3008 7484 30080 12510 5360 7397 5059 7050 5313 5657 6107 12190 9683 8120 3129 4974 14010 8336 45720 6539 3905 10340 5570 22850 7475 3445 21960 12040 4255 13280 5245 21140 8001 7815 21230 4467 6252 7143 27070 7189 8334 5208 3830 27350 6265 5767 25700 7993 8509 3054 6877 15250 9267 6182 7794 20150 12720 36450 17480 24990 9641 64920 37940 21990 6655 7628 48830 21210 12800 3786 2849 56030 8394 26360 2774 16530 2281 3404 6924 12850 7884 12740 3534 20480 4462 4234 1813 11710 6238 7456 24370 8519 36000 11470 11870 6719 2021 6096 8795 6460 5610 23270 9802 3077 10180 13060 6184 18420 17720 7521 31270 8739 5023 23790 9698 3513 9955 4820 15930 9353 14550 14580 11390 33250 9423 6308 9607 11480 21410 4841 11050 22200 6452 6775 4911 21790 6750 5557 6959 7910 24400 34610 5662 2938 24340 5262 6997 44910 15200 15890 14880 6023 4574 4887 5875 7382 15380 5566 7668 19890 4821 6028 8555 5493 8723 11520 15090 14890 22860 7540 7954 17220 8619 5457 6127 3639 21940 16120 20390 5254 3829 22310 5574 16160 13470 17700 11710 18920 5451 5616 11170 5482 2966 6469 17990 8098 4288 29240 17280 5757 4938 5296 26550 26180 25230 22660 18060 7235 8212 5905 7960 5151 8318 6622 4560 9019 4761 8426 4168 6674 14630 30080 17500 4984 8623 24560 6955 8590 25020 6276 5389 11570 10910 6776 5619 12490

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.