COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-06-09

	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-26	12-27	2021-05-25	2021-03-25	12-27	07-21	2021-03-25	12-21	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-23	12-28	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	2021-01-02	2021-01-11	12-30	2021-05-09	12-26	12-22	12-29	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-07	2021-01-07	2021-05-09	11-13	2021-01-01	12-21	10-24	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-14	12-06	12-28	12-30	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-30	12-30	12-27	12-07	10-28	12-21	12-27	12-26	12-08	12-06	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-22	12-21	10-28	12-30	12-22	12-28	12-25	12-22	12-21	2021-01-03	12-21	12-21	12-30	10-04	2021-01-04	12-26	2021-01-05	12-29	12-26	12-27	12-29	12-24	11-02	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-28	2021-01-02	2021-02-25	12-21	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	12-22	10-04	12-27	07-21	12-24	12-29	10-04	12-24	12-21	11-09	12-06	12-26	07-21	10-31	12-27	12-30	12-28	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-25	12-21	12-22	2021-01-06	09-27	12-27	12-23	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-25	12-18	12-25	2021-01-04	12-26	12-26	10-04	2021-05-29	12-28	12-21	12-21	12-27	12-21	2021-01-05	12-22	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-28	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-23	12-13	12-27	12-13	12-29	12-22	12-29	12-28	12-28	12-30	12-22	12-26	12-21	2021-01-01	12-21	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-22	2021-05-29	12-28	12-25	11-01	12-21	2021-05-24	12-27	12-29	2021-01-06	11-02	2021-01-03	12-21	12-27	12-27	11-02	12-21	12-26	2021-04-03	12-22	12-21	12-31	12-29	2021-01-02	12-22	11-01	2021-01-07	12-08	12-21	12-21	12-21	2021-05-29	12-21	2021-03-25	12-31	07-21	12-22	12-27	12-06	07-21	2021-03-18	12-28	12-29	2021-01-03	11-03	12-27	12-06	12-27	07-21	12-08	12-27	10-26	12-26	12-21	10-04	11-01	12-21	12-29	11-04	12-21	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	2021-01-01	12-29	12-29	11-02	12-28	07-21	12-27	12-28	12-26	12-27	2021-01-06	2021-01-06	2021-01-01	12-06	2021-01-04	2021-05-26	12-21	12-31	2021-01-05	12-22	10-04	12-06	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-10	12-31	12-13	10-18	12-30	12-28	12-27	12-25	2021-01-26	2021-01-02	12-29	12-29	2021-01-03	12-23	12-21	12-31	12-29	12-22	11-02	07-21	12-30	12-25	12-25	12-21	12-29	12-21	12-21	12-28	12-26	12-25	2021-01-04	12-22	11-09	10-04	12-21	12-22	2021-05-28	2021-01-03	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	12-25	12-25	2021-05-25	12-22	11-07	12-28	12-27	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-02	12-25	12-29	2021-01-02	12-26	12-30	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-26	12-21	12-19	12-22	12-23	12-27	12-06	11-13	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-26	12-08	12-21	11-01	12-27	12-27	12-15	12-25	11-02	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-26	12-20	12-13	10-04	11-02	12-07	10-04	12-22	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	2021-01-01	12-28	12-25	12-31	12-21	12-30	12-26	11-02
Peak daily increment	92	102	61	88	97	50	77	73	119	106	170	110	171	178	78	477	589	189	58	326	128	110	108	49	252	426	1250	75	157	65	95	58	202	50	484	142	434	228	107	524	155	233	307	320	107	508	94	186	62	122	123	211	137	99	256	87	148	354	172	194	175	107	303	40	90	268	52	197	249	283	59	91	71	65	266	20	243	5	35	53	94	285	34	553	288	38	181	598	151	69	189	72	58	246	27	170	248	187	118	322	119	87	536	308	60	52	71	76	160	106	25	51	235	204	102	163	147	107	56	146	593	273	97	74	80	69	90	73	94	119	150	125	54	38	122	82	597	19	56	180	92	451	119	34	377	219	59	201	57	401	172	103	338	101	106	136	120	476	101	159	52	76	442	57	116	452	143	83	74	134	18	237	275	23	70	100	283	198	72	311	428	107	1449	284	104	456	71	230	102	727	27	200	90	36	368	92	419	25	46	106	298	37	62	15	186	27	213	302	361	79	62	66	23	105	63	122	85	723	190	212	192	23	50	137	105	51	394	105	58	122	107	41	55	277	158	121	224	90	68	123	3	125	44	108	58	154	120	207	43	102	23	623	105	81	176	151	286	52	188	39	132	139	56	96	198	80	85	59	174	36	25	162	450	42	83	82	403	65	131	573	25	209	244	167	97	42	111	102	69	181	27	42	86	72	448	95	79	16	80	66	102	115	247	293	450	131	156	219	94	29	112	26	189	138	197	66	42	206	105	331	189	270	181	123	56	109	46	141	352	90	44	138	122	360	139	51	101	14	559	151	90	110	120	84	250	329	449	390	227	259	138	117	160	65	154	87	29	78	166	42	65	67	115	217	217	265	83	148	430	106	138	377	106	115	176	95	173	71	69	594
Days since peak	163	164	164	165	164	15	76	164	323	76	170	164	183	170	168	163	168	239	164	168	158	149	161	31	165	169	162	164	164	162	184	153	31	208	159	170	228	169	164	164	177	185	163	161	166	170	165	169	161	161	164	184	224	170	164	165	183	185	164	183	170	169	170	224	161	169	163	166	169	170	157	170	170	161	248	156	165	155	162	165	164	162	167	219	164	163	164	164	170	166	170	170	163	158	104	170	238	164	184	165	169	248	164	323	167	162	248	167	170	212	185	165	323	221	164	161	163	170	165	169	166	170	169	154	255	164	168	164	169	163	166	173	166	156	165	165	248	11	163	170	170	164	170	155	169	164	163	170	170	170	163	164	163	170	168	178	164	178	162	169	162	163	163	161	169	165	170	159	170	163	170	164	169	11	163	166	220	170	16	164	162	154	219	157	170	164	164	219	170	165	67	169	170	160	162	158	169	220	153	183	170	170	170	11	170	76	160	323	169	164	185	323	83	163	162	157	218	164	185	164	323	183	164	226	165	170	248	220	170	162	217	170	156	164	170	159	162	162	219	163	323	164	163	165	164	154	154	159	185	156	14	170	160	155	169	248	185	163	170	164	163	181	160	178	234	161	163	164	166	134	158	162	162	157	168	170	160	162	169	219	323	161	166	166	170	162	170	170	163	165	166	156	169	212	248	170	169	12	157	163	164	169	170	177	163	165	170	166	166	15	169	214	163	164	220	170	168	169	164	170	184	189	166	162	158	165	161	156	164	170	165	170	172	169	168	164	185	208	170	164	169	165	183	170	220	164	164	176	166	219	170	169	170	164	165	171	178	248	219	184	248	169	168	169	164	162	169	169	163	164	169	164	159	163	166	160	170	161	165	219
Last total	7496	6054	2946	5100	8611	3515	8622	6012	1511	15883	8379	9765	9875	12049	3900	23847	30927	20076	4328	17770	8373	8296	8405	14918	23001	22662	103905	7287	21109	9682	6191	5994	31519	5108	25677	7370	51628	10891	6908	29356	6963	12683	14917	31553	6119	24919	6328	9180	7289	10653	18437	13501	15237	5903	14530	7168	10316	26468	8264	10874	8398	7618	16666	1801	12931	12818	3897	9268	22024	22482	6211	4993	4382	8577	19457	2790	11485	299	3990	3210	5967	14522	2634	38682	24300	2892	8074	31832	8740	7613	10534	4372	4393	20345	3036	12876	24363	12059	7921	27263	4292	7747	32125	6813	3074	4247	5621	4966	8361	6562	3077	4955	5402	18696	9749	8996	6662	5942	3037	7565	30159	12533	5400	7420	5087	7047	5317	5679	6116	12279	9705	8133	3152	5033	14106	8379	46002	6609	3923	10388	5576	22956	7527	3473	22166	12106	4282	13441	5274	21294	8013	7877	21283	4510	8992	6254	7168	27134	7257	8349	5253	3805	27436	6314	5806	25756	8024	8715	3062	7755	2330	6877	15418	9388	6192	7799	20220	12761	36635	17581	25230	9750	65642	38225	4973	22146	6682	7006	7636	49277	21426	12825	3813	2844	57057	8393	26452	2787	3504	6747	16626	2291	3400	6992	12844	7894	12764	3655	20589	4497	4231	1810	11733	6264	7488	24593	8564	36108	11495	11909	6766	2030	6129	8902	6504	5630	23377	9814	3078	10252	13192	4429	6199	18525	18011	7537	31437	8836	5062	24038	76	9803	3544	10207	5003	15961	9422	14566	4218	14798	11434	33348	9437	6335	9657	11520	21423	5068	11169	2676	22491	6463	6847	4923	21825	6794	5581	7040	7938	1697	1906	24984	34735	5660	2982	5509	24573	5314	7030	45000	240	15263	15974	14977	6034	4717	4919	5907	7410	15494	1744	5561	7690	4579	19973	5635	4866	6107	8834	5506	8758	11612	15131	14943	23089	7617	7989	17305	8643	5554	6135	3670	22459	16164	20483	5285	3855	22450	5621	16232	13480	17778	11743	19178	5481	5649	3068	11239	10048	5515	3029	11554	6492	18026	8129	4301	6487	1016	29545	17730	5773	4958	7501	5331	26810	26285	25379	22955	18283	7260	8231	5916	7981	5162	8358	6633	1207	4648	9097	4776	8583	4204	6690	14819	30746	17635	5008	8649	24720	7041	8673	25126	6261	5415	11582	6490	10993	6858	5635	12554
Last daily increment	33	4	1	3	2	28	3	5	3	13	5	11	4	18	4	7	23	22	7	11	18	1	17	36	19	9	163	6	103	34	1	2	108	4	34	11	125	3	3	40	7	4	28	66	5	21	12	2	12	34	78	3	44	4	41	7	5	12	7	3	0	6	26	1	19	4	20	8	68	59	5	6	5	38	114	19	7	0	4	5	2	85	3	56	32	6	13	39	9	5	2	3	3	6	3	19	22	16	6	16	14	49	34	15	3	3	19	7	14	5	18	5	27	14	4	3	1	6	11	17	11	4	9	9	8	5	3	5	4	28	4	2	1	22	20	11	161	11	6	6	3	21	6	2	31	13	4	30	3	30	3	11	10	11	5	2	7	7	14	6	15	4	21	12	2	36	10	45	5	1	2	6	33	18	4	1	10	18	84	21	58	14	193	63	4	22	11	2	6	84	39	7	3	1	228	8	11	1	4	0	11	0	1	10	9	5	14	24	19	9	1	1	7	8	8	64	18	26	5	10	15	3	5	24	8	5	60	5	2	10	54	6	4	21	67	6	40	18	9	54	0	17	8	29	23	5	20	8	0	68	16	20	5	3	12	43	4	42	24	2	64	2	19	2	13	3	5	25	18	2	1	103	17	6	19	6	39	11	8	30	0	14	18	15	3	10	11	4	9	27	1	2	7	6	62	2	6	5	42	4	6	17	26	11	40	10	6	21	9	6	5	12	88	19	24	8	1	25	15	14	4	7	12	49	2	2	8	20	2	10	13	3	8	5	6	4	0	1	55	62	7	3	2	5	45	21	29	51	44	4	11	4	6	5	7	8	2	32	11	3	38	3	5	38	117	34	3	12	42	12	19	18	3	4	0	5	19	12	2	22
Last week	108	50	9	19	14	150	31	15	26	63	23	31	19	78	17	59	121	127	20	36	68	13	60	229	94	68	816	51	753	189	6	8	714	20	146	89	607	22	28	207	23	17	121	281	23	132	36	18	37	267	407	9	211	30	170	26	53	52	23	25	14	37	166	6	130	35	65	48	430	315	12	27	31	231	800	88	56	0	48	19	14	182	15	250	155	26	39	241	53	19	46	39	32	36	19	87	106	76	24	112	57	342	191	133	13	10	118	24	64	34	104	26	114	80	17	24	8	23	21	76	100	23	44	33	31	49	13	22	24	166	22	21	20	101	109	44	864	83	22	45	7	124	44	18	184	65	21	148	30	156	14	75	56	55	29	7	30	65	62	25	70	26	151	54	29	145	40	280	19	9	9	11	165	109	14	15	65	108	483	96	307	92	896	381	18	143	31	16	20	418	224	37	22	4	1344	17	97	16	8	3	109	13	11	71	34	18	46	139	132	32	5	9	25	24	28	288	47	142	20	71	102	13	28	99	37	19	302	36	7	60	202	18	21	101	262	29	215	96	36	334	0	85	31	230	177	40	66	57	6	318	115	110	24	28	111	205	16	232	89	17	368	12	224	13	70	41	24	74	45	5	10	660	113	12	43	27	213	58	41	181	1	60	106	113	14	182	32	39	31	119	8	17	37	27	263	23	42	56	300	13	30	91	76	60	237	67	44	90	26	62	20	44	573	56	95	28	24	135	57	77	14	61	48	291	28	34	22	80	16	37	46	15	40	36	36	14	12	2	260	385	23	21	15	29	260	127	143	281	216	28	54	16	17	28	39	37	12	96	69	18	178	25	17	191	616	129	20	39	185	69	128	99	17	23	19	9	87	83	17	96
Previous peak date	07-21	07-21	--	--	10-27	07-21	12-21	10-07	--	12-21	--	10-21	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	10-26	11-02	12-21	10-07	--	11-02	--	10-13	10-13	--	10-25	10-15	--	11-02	--	05-03	10-26	--	--	--	--	10-16	11-02	--	--	--	--	10-12	09-27	10-27	09-02	--	--	10-01	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-10	--	--	11-02	--	--	10-27	10-18	--	10-20	--	--	10-13	07-21	07-21	10-14	--	--	--	--	10-29	--	04-20	10-31	10-31	--	10-29	10-17	--	--	--	10-21	10-27	12-28	10-01	--	10-12	--	--	07-21	07-21	--	--	--	11-01	07-21	10-27	--	--	07-21	10-27	--	--	--	10-30	--	10-20	--	10-06	--	--	--	10-18	--	07-21	--	--	--	07-21	--	--	--	10-15	10-29	10-11	07-21	12-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-28	10-27	10-14	--	10-12	--	10-27	10-30	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	10-17	10-27	07-21	--	11-01	--	--	--	10-13	07-21	--	06-11	--	--	12-28	--	--	--	10-13	10-27	09-29	--	10-08	04-14	11-02	--	--	10-31	--	10-12	09-28	12-27	--	--	--	11-02	10-25	--	--	--	--	10-15	--	--	12-22	10-12	12-21	11-03	--	09-30	--	--	--	12-07	--	--	11-02	--	--	--	09-24	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	07-21	--	--	10-31	--	--	11-03	08-02	--	--	11-02	11-01	--	10-22	--	--	--	--	07-21	--	11-02	11-02	--	11-02	12-29	--	11-03	10-26	--	07-21	--	10-11	10-10	--	10-19	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	11-02	11-02	10-31	07-21	--	09-30	10-25	--	--	--	10-28	--	--	--	07-21	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	07-21	--	--	12-20	10-13	--	10-24	--	--	--	--	--	10-17	10-08	10-29	10-27	--	07-21	10-18	10-12	--	--	--	10-06	10-31	--	--	--	--	10-18	11-04	--	--	10-29	10-11	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	10-17	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-22	--	--	10-22	--	--	--	--	--	07-21	--	--	07-21	--	10-15	--	10-16	10-24	--	--	09-30	10-30	10-11	--	11-03	--	10-19	10-28	--	10-17	--	--
Previous peak daily increment	616	365			80	295	134	40		260		61		40					31			75	271	233	262		1226		166	98		54	234		363		55	19					62	1197					57	72	160	31			54				39			60			294			35	120		54			62	1272	83	35					57		68	129	18		69	22				25	164	25	206		59			226	710				39	383	25			191	31				24		30		29				56		475				687				43	127	72	1766	92								70	33	54		60		69	57				38			22	44	144		49				59	248		45			148				46	349	153		81	75	479			56		71	480	273				2237	61					44			153	109	105	87		25				191			2429				91			53				1007			82			56	68			1343	64		257					230		139	354		150	174		88	41		459		41	46		194		65					67				406	233	81	152		189	33				104				226			66						876			108	66		75						20	118	77	55		149	184	120				129	18					172	46			89	27	17						45				144									135			23						307			376		24		319	68			141	22	25		38		54	32		67
Low between peaks	0	-1			28	0	8	18		13		26		-44					8			37	20	-12	48		303		55	29		19	17		23		27	-19					21	68					19	34	54	12			23				7			26			28			-43	-38		17			31	-11	-4	-18					12		1	39	-9		28	-31				9	53	8	34		-47			-2	-3				-13	-3	-32			-1	10				-10		8		-67				19		-4				-5				-9	24	23	-7	-13								22	-40	23		15		-120	-7				19			-66	-54	-1		15				21	-2		0			-5				18	31	21		23	6	120			21		21	58	7				114	21					-25			-10	39	6	35		8				7			18				23			-9				-7			35			16	7			50	28		58					1		20	37		38	-8		22	13		-2		-20	-118		62		22					16				36	92	19	-4		26	14				31				-2			24						-7			-1	28		24						-77	30	38	-2		-1	43	43				58	-23					32	15			31	11	7						6				-31									-27			-71						-2			-2		-25		77	-103			19	-17	-8		8		27	12		-4

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-10 to 2021-06-16

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-06-09	7496	6054	2946	5100	8611	3515	8622	6012	1511	15883	8379	9765	9875	12049	3900	23847	30927	20076	4328	17770	8373	8296	8405	14918	23001	22662	103905	7287	21109	9682	6191	5994	31519	5108	25677	7370	51628	10891	6908	29356	6963	12683	14917	31553	6119	24919	6328	9180	7289	10653	18437	13501	15237	5903	14530	7168	10316	26468	8264	10874	8398	7618	16666	1801	12931	12818	3897	9268	22024	22482	6211	4993	4382	8577	19457	2790	11485	3990	3210	5967	14522	2634	38682	24300	2892	8074	31832	8740	7613	10534	4372	4393	20345	3036	12876	24363	12059	7921	27263	4292	7747	32125	6813	3074	4247	5621	4966	8361	6562	3077	4955	5402	18696	9749	8996	6662	5942	3037	7565	30159	12533	5400	7420	5087	7047	5317	5679	6116	12279	9705	8133	3152	5033	14106	8379	46002	6609	3923	10388	5576	22956	7527	3473	22166	12106	4282	13441	5274	21294	8013	7877	21283	4510	8992	6254	7168	27134	7257	8349	5253	3805	27436	6314	5806	25756	8024	8715	3062	7755	2330	6877	15418	9388	6192	7799	20220	12761	36635	17581	25230	9750	65642	38225	4973	22146	6682	7006	7636	49277	21426	12825	3813	57057	8393	26452	2787	3504	16626	2291	3400	6992	12844	7894	12764	3655	20589	4497	1810	11733	6264	7488	24593	8564	36108	11495	11909	6766	2030	6129	8902	6504	5630	23377	9814	3078	10252	13192	4429	6199	18525	18011	7537	31437	8836	5062	24038	9803	3544	10207	5003	15961	9422	14566	4218	14798	11434	33348	9437	6335	9657	11520	21423	5068	11169	2676	22491	6463	6847	4923	21825	6794	5581	7040	7938	1906	24984	34735	5660	2982	5509	24573	5314	7030	45000	15263	15974	14977	6034	4717	4919	5907	7410	15494	1744	5561	7690	4579	19973	5635	4866	6107	8834	5506	8758	11612	15131	14943	23089	7617	7989	17305	8643	5554	6135	3670	22459	16164	20483	5285	3855	22450	5621	16232	13480	17778	11743	19178	5481	5649	3068	11239	10048	5515	3029	11554	6492	18026	8129	4301	6487	29545	17730	5773	4958	7501	5331	26810	26285	25379	22955	18283	7260	8231	5916	7981	5162	8358	6633	1207	4648	9097	4776	8583	4204	6690	14819	30746	17635	5008	8649	24720	7041	8673	25126	6261	5415	11582	6490	10993	6858	5635	12554
2021-06-10	7505	6054	2947	5100	8615	3539	8626	6014	1513	15890	8379	9765	9875	12060	3903	23850	30950	20100	4334	17780	8392	8299	8417	14970	23000	22670	104000	7295	21310	9713	6192	5995	31710	5109	25700	7394	51750	10890	6912	29400	6970	12680	14940	31610	6119	24940	6337	9182	7289	10700	18500	13500	15270	5906	14560	7170	10320	26480	8267	10870	8400	7623	16710	1802	12950	12820	3904	9275	22100	22540	6213	4993	4390	8607	19590	2801	11490	4001	3212	5971	14580	2636	38730	24330	2897	8083	31890	8748	7619	10540	4378	4397	20350	3041	12890	24360	12080	7924	27280	4301	7799	32130	6837	3078	4248	5637	4974	8371	6566	3093	4958	5422	18710	9752	8996	6662	5946	3044	7577	30160	12530	5410	7424	5091	7057	5318	5686	6120	12310	9708	8133	3159	5053	14130	8379	46140	6627	3931	10400	5577	22980	7534	3476	22200	12110	4285	13470	5278	21320	8015	7890	21290	4520	8997	6256	7175	27150	7266	8350	5253	3814	27460	6328	5821	25770	8024	8761	3066	7756	2331	6879	15440	9405	6193	7801	20230	12780	36690	17590	25280	9771	65820	38230	4973	22170	6686	7007	7639	49370	21460	12830	3817	57310	8393	26460	2789	3504	16640	2293	3402	7007	12850	7899	12770	3676	20610	4499	1812	11740	6273	7495	24640	8569	36130	11500	11920	6773	2031	6135	8924	6518	5632	23430	9818	3079	10260	13240	4431	6203	18540	18070	7540	31480	8854	5073	24080	9831	3551	10250	5030	15970	9432	14570	4219	14850	11460	33370	9440	6339	9677	11560	21420	5100	11200	2678	22560	6463	6882	4923	21830	6799	5585	7064	7945	1907	25100	34760	5662	2994	5513	24590	5320	7037	45010	15270	16000	15000	6034	4734	4923	5914	7414	15520	1745	5569	7694	4584	20010	5638	4872	6122	8882	5506	8763	11630	15150	14950	23130	7628	7994	17320	8648	5574	6138	3679	22540	16180	20500	5285	3856	22470	5632	16240	13480	17790	11750	19220	5489	5651	3073	11250	10050	5516	3039	11560	6498	18030	8129	4302	6488	29590	17790	5777	4960	7501	5337	26850	26320	25400	23010	18330	7262	8240	5916	7983	5166	8371	6638	1209	4666	9110	4779	8612	4214	6692	14850	30840	17650	5014	8653	24740	7052	8693	25130	6264	5423	11580	6492	11010	6869	5637	12570
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2021-06-14	7553	6074	2947	5100	8625	3624	8633	6017	1513	15910	8384	9773	9883	12120	3911	23860	31020	20160	4352	17810	8457	8307	8460	15110	23040	22680	104400	7327	21820	9834	6192	5996	32160	5121	25770	7454	52180	10890	6931	29520	6993	12690	15000	31790	6125	25010	6367	9188	7297	10840	18720	13500	15380	5907	14650	7181	10350	26490	8279	10880	8400	7629	16840	1802	13010	12840	3925	9302	22400	22770	6216	4997	4418	8728	20120	2814	11510	4049	3212	5981	14770	2637	38860	24420	2913	8118	32080	8779	7639	10550	4406	4406	20360	3058	12930	24410	12130	7924	27340	4332	7993	32210	6938	3091	4248	5655	4991	8404	6570	3156	4972	5484	18740	9762	9002	6664	5955	3071	7623	30160	12540	5441	7424	5091	7098	5325	5705	6137	12360	9709	8141	3172	5123	14190	8391	46550	6677	3954	10420	5579	23060	7562	3476	22310	12140	4298	13550	5281	21380	8015	7939	21330	4555	9011	6259	7202	27180	7298	8362	5277	3864	27530	6379	5843	25830	8030	8916	3080	7761	2332	6887	15540	9474	6198	7808	20250	12830	36930	17610	25480	9820	66430	38360	4978	22250	6686	7023	7653	49650	21540	12840	3833	58080	8401	26490	2794	3505	16670	2293	3413	7060	12890	7926	12780	3757	20630	4499	1823	11740	6298	7505	24780	8599	36200	11500	11950	6773	2033	6158	9000	6554	5633	23630	9837	3083	10280	13390	4431	6214	18600	18260	7543	31640	8912	5109	24280	9888	3572	10390	5137	15990	9466	14610	4223	15040	11530	33430	9446	6348	9746	11720	21430	5197	11280	2681	22790	6466	7016	4926	21860	6799	5602	7137	7958	1909	25480	34820	5672	3033	5534	24680	5320	7061	45100	15300	16070	15060	6037	4778	4923	5937	7428	15600	1756	5587	7698	4600	20140	5649	4891	6203	9083	5508	8778	11700	15200	14950	23270	7677	7999	17370	8665	5615	6148	3705	22860	16210	20560	5288	3856	22540	5671	16290	13490	17820	11760	19370	5516	5651	3091	11290	10050	5529	3074	11560	6509	18030	8148	4307	6489	29740	18020	5788	4963	7506	5352	26990	26400	25490	23170	18470	7262	8269	5919	7983	5180	8407	6657	1214	4724	9141	4785	8714	4248	6697	14970	31230	17740	5039	8656	24820	7091	8767	25180	6290	5432	11590	6499	11080	6909	5643	12630
2021-06-15	7570	6084	2948	5100	8627	3646	8636	6019	1514	15920	8388	9778	9884	12130	3913	23870	31030	20170	4357	17820	8472	8310	8473	15150	23050	22690	104500	7336	21940	9864	6192	5997	32250	5124	25790	7468	52290	10890	6936	29550	6998	12700	15020	31840	6131	25030	6374	9191	7302	10880	18800	13500	15410	5909	14670	7185	10350	26490	8282	10890	8401	7633	16870	1803	13020	12850	3932	9309	22450	22830	6217	5002	4425	8764	20240	2823	11510	4060	3212	5983	14820	2639	38900	24440	2917	8126	32130	8786	7646	10560	4412	4409	20370	3063	12940	24420	12140	7926	27360	4340	8042	32250	6962	3094	4249	5667	4997	8413	6572	3171	4974	5502	18750	9764	9005	6666	5958	3077	7635	30160	12540	5449	7424	5092	7108	5327	5711	6140	12380	9711	8143	3176	5140	14210	8399	46670	6689	3961	10430	5579	23080	7568	3478	22340	12150	4301	13570	5284	21400	8016	7951	21340	4563	9015	6260	7209	27190	7306	8364	5289	3874	27560	6391	5849	25860	8039	8963	3083	7763	2333	6889	15560	9490	6203	7813	20260	12840	37010	17630	25530	9832	66620	38420	4979	22280	6686	7027	7655	49720	21570	12840	3837	58340	8403	26500	2796	3506	16680	2294	3415	7070	12890	7932	12790	3777	20640	4499	1826	11740	6304	7512	24820	8607	36210	11500	11960	6779	2034	6167	9019	6565	5634	23680	9841	3084	10290	13430	4433	6220	18610	18300	7545	31680	8927	5117	24340	9902	3578	10430	5163	16000	9473	14620	4224	15090	11550	33450	9449	6352	9760	11750	21430	5227	11300	2683	22850	6467	7049	4929	21870	6800	5605	7156	7963	1910	25590	34850	5674	3042	5541	24710	5322	7067	45130	15310	16100	15080	6040	4796	4923	5943	7432	15610	1758	5589	7701	4604	20180	5652	4896	6219	9130	5511	8781	11710	15210	14950	23310	7688	8003	17380	8669	5623	6151	3713	22940	16220	20570	5294	3856	22560	5681	16300	13490	17830	11760	19420	5524	5651	3096	11300	10050	5535	3083	11560	6514	18040	8155	4308	6490	29780	18100	5792	4965	7507	5357	27020	26410	25520	23220	18500	7264	8277	5923	7983	5184	8418	6667	1216	4738	9152	4787	8741	4256	6700	15000	31330	17750	5044	8659	24860	7101	8785	25190	6294	5437	11600	6500	11090	6920	5645	12640
2021-06-16	7592	6090	2949	5100	8629	3668	8640	6021	1516	15920	8392	9785	9887	12150	3915	23870	31050	20190	4362	17820	8487	8312	8486	15190	23070	22700	104700	7344	22060	9894	6193	5997	32360	5128	25810	7480	52390	10890	6939	29580	7004	12700	15050	31900	6134	25050	6382	9193	7310	10920	18860	13500	15450	5912	14700	7190	10360	26500	8285	10890	8402	7637	16900	1803	13040	12850	3939	9315	22520	22880	6219	5006	4432	8798	20370	2833	11520	4071	3213	5986	14860	2641	38940	24460	2921	8134	32170	8794	7648	10560	4418	4412	20370	3067	12950	24440	12150	7928	27370	4349	8090	32280	6985	3098	4250	5681	5002	8422	6575	3185	4979	5520	18760	9768	9007	6667	5963	3083	7647	30160	12550	5458	7426	5095	7118	5328	5713	6144	12400	9714	8144	3178	5157	14220	8407	46800	6700	3964	10430	5582	23100	7574	3480	22370	12160	4304	13590	5287	21420	8017	7963	21350	4571	9019	6261	7215	27200	7315	8369	5300	3882	27580	6404	5853	25880	8046	9005	3086	7763	2335	6892	15580	9507	6206	7813	20260	12860	37090	17640	25580	9845	66760	38470	4982	22300	6689	7032	7658	49780	21600	12850	3841	58530	8409	26500	2798	3508	16690	2295	3416	7078	12900	7937	12790	3797	20650	4499	1828	11740	6309	7520	24860	8617	36230	11510	11970	6787	2036	6171	9038	6569	5636	23730	9846	3086	10300	13470	4435	6223	18630	18350	7548	31720	8942	5126	24390	9918	3584	10460	5189	16000	9487	14620	4225	15140	11570	33460	9452	6356	9774	11790	21430	5257	11320	2685	22900	6469	7082	4930	21880	6804	5609	7175	7970	1911	25690	34860	5676	3052	5545	24740	5326	7074	45160	15320	16110	15090	6042	4814	4925	5948	7436	15630	1760	5593	7704	4609	20240	5654	4901	6234	9177	5513	8786	11730	15230	14950	23350	7699	8007	17400	8674	5631	6153	3722	23020	16230	20590	5299	3856	22580	5691	16310	13500	17840	11770	19460	5525	5651	3100	11320	10060	5542	3092	11560	6520	18040	8158	4311	6491	29820	18160	5796	4967	7508	5363	27060	26430	25540	23270	18530	7268	8284	5925	7984	5187	8422	6673	1218	4752	9162	4790	8768	4264	6704	15030	31430	17770	5049	8662	24890	7111	8804	25200	6297	5441	11600	6502	11110	6931	5647	12660

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-10 to 2021-06-16

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-06-09	7496	6054	2946	5100	8611	3515	8622	6012	1511	15883	8379	9765	9875	12049	3900	23847	30927	20076	4328	17770	8373	8296	8405	14918	23001	22662	103905	7287	21109	9682	6191	5994	31519	5108	25677	7370	51628	10891	6908	29356	6963	12683	14917	31553	6119	24919	6328	9180	7289	10653	18437	13501	15237	5903	14530	7168	10316	26468	8264	10874	8398	7618	16666	1801	12931	12818	3897	9268	22024	22482	6211	4993	4382	8577	19457	2790	11485	3990	3210	5967	14522	2634	38682	24300	2892	8074	31832	8740	7613	10534	4372	4393	20345	3036	12876	24363	12059	7921	27263	4292	7747	32125	6813	3074	4247	5621	4966	8361	6562	3077	4955	5402	18696	9749	8996	6662	5942	3037	7565	30159	12533	5400	7420	5087	7047	5317	5679	6116	12279	9705	8133	3152	5033	14106	8379	46002	6609	3923	10388	5576	22956	7527	3473	22166	12106	4282	13441	5274	21294	8013	7877	21283	4510	8992	6254	7168	27134	7257	8349	5253	3805	27436	6314	5806	25756	8024	8715	3062	7755	2330	6877	15418	9388	6192	7799	20220	12761	36635	17581	25230	9750	65642	38225	4973	22146	6682	7006	7636	49277	21426	12825	3813	57057	8393	26452	2787	3504	16626	2291	3400	6992	12844	7894	12764	3655	20589	4497	1810	11733	6264	7488	24593	8564	36108	11495	11909	6766	2030	6129	8902	6504	5630	23377	9814	3078	10252	13192	4429	6199	18525	18011	7537	31437	8836	5062	24038	9803	3544	10207	5003	15961	9422	14566	4218	14798	11434	33348	9437	6335	9657	11520	21423	5068	11169	2676	22491	6463	6847	4923	21825	6794	5581	7040	7938	1906	24984	34735	5660	2982	5509	24573	5314	7030	45000	15263	15974	14977	6034	4717	4919	5907	7410	15494	1744	5561	7690	4579	19973	5635	4866	6107	8834	5506	8758	11612	15131	14943	23089	7617	7989	17305	8643	5554	6135	3670	22459	16164	20483	5285	3855	22450	5621	16232	13480	17778	11743	19178	5481	5649	3068	11239	10048	5515	3029	11554	6492	18026	8129	4301	6487	29545	17730	5773	4958	7501	5331	26810	26285	25379	22955	18283	7260	8231	5916	7981	5162	8358	6633	1207	4648	9097	4776	8583	4204	6690	14819	30746	17635	5008	8649	24720	7041	8673	25126	6261	5415	11582	6490	10993	6858	5635	12554
2021-06-10	7513	6061	2947	5104	8613	3543	8626	6015	1514	15890	8382	9770	9877	12060	3903	23850	30950	20100	4332	17780	8383	8298	8415	14960	23010	22670	104000	7296	21240	9712	6192	5995	31650	5111	25700	7387	51730	10890	6912	29390	6967	12690	14940	31600	6123	24940	6334	9182	7296	10700	18510	13500	15270	5907	14560	7173	10320	26480	8268	10880	8399	7623	16690	1802	12950	12820	3909	9274	22080	22540	6213	4997	4386	8616	19580	2803	11490	3996	3213	5969	14570	2637	38730	24330	2896	8081	31870	8747	7617	10540	4377	4399	20350	3039	12890	24380	12070	7924	27280	4302	7804	32150	6840	3076	4248	5640	4972	8372	6565	3095	4958	5424	18710	9751	8999	6664	5947	3043	7578	30170	12540	5406	7424	5091	7056	5319	5684	6120	12310	9708	8135	3156	5047	14120	8384	46160	6621	3927	10390	5577	22970	7533	3475	22190	12110	4286	13470	5277	21320	8015	7893	21290	4519	8997	6256	7172	27150	7265	8353	5263	3812	27460	6322	5814	25780	8031	8764	3067	7756	2331	6881	15450	9406	6194	7802	20230	12780	36710	17600	25290	9766	65810	38290	4975	22170	6688	7008	7639	49350	21450	12830	3817	57290	8396	26470	2789	3506	16640	2292	3402	7000	12850	7898	12770	3680	20610	4502	1813	11740	6269	7494	24640	8573	36130	11500	11920	6785	2032	6133	8918	6510	5632	23440	9819	3079	10260	13230	4432	6202	18540	18060	7541	31470	8852	5068	24080	9822	3550	10240	5031	15970	9433	14570	4218	14850	11460	33370	9441	6339	9675	11560	21430	5105	11180	2678	22550	6465	6881	4925	21840	6798	5585	7055	7948	1908	25110	34750	5664	2991	5513	24610	5319	7037	45030	15270	15990	14990	6036	4741	4923	5911	7415	15510	1745	5564	7695	4584	20030	5638	4872	6117	8887	5508	8763	11630	15150	14950	23130	7626	7994	17320	8649	5562	6139	3681	22550	16170	20500	5292	3857	22470	5631	16250	13480	17790	11750	19220	5484	5653	3072	11250	10050	5521	3038	11560	6499	18030	8134	4303	6487	29590	17790	5777	4960	7502	5336	26850	26310	25410	23010	18320	7263	8240	5919	7984	5166	8365	6640	1209	4667	9108	4779	8613	4207	6694	14850	30830	17660	5010	8654	24750	7051	8695	25140	6264	5421	11580	6492	11010	6869	5637	12570
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2021-06-14	7563	6088	2950	5112	8618	3617	8637	6024	1523	15910	8392	9777	9887	12120	3907	23880	31010	20160	4335	17790	8405	8308	8439	15090	23050	22680	104500	7331	21760	9816	6193	5998	32110	5120	25750	7458	52050	10900	6928	29500	6976	12690	14960	31750	6130	25020	6344	9190	7305	10840	18740	13500	15370	5916	14620	7183	10350	26500	8274	10880	8400	7635	16770	1803	13000	12830	3942	9283	22340	22740	6218	5003	4398	8721	20060	2846	11510	4020	3219	5980	14650	2644	38830	24390	2905	8100	31990	8766	7623	10570	4393	4413	20370	3044	12930	24410	12100	7930	27340	4328	7971	32250	6931	3080	4249	5697	4985	8391	6575	3142	4970	5499	18730	9763	9010	6666	5957	3057	7623	30210	12550	5419	7431	5100	7103	5328	5694	6128	12400	9716	8146	3171	5093	14180	8391	46670	6670	3935	10410	5579	23020	7544	3480	22300	12130	4300	13540	5285	21380	8019	7930	21310	4544	9003	6260	7177	27170	7289	8366	5292	3841	27550	6350	5832	25850	8047	8919	3083	7760	2333	6890	15520	9466	6199	7809	20260	12840	36970	17630	25470	9792	66250	38460	4977	22240	6697	7019	7646	49560	21530	12850	3829	58030	8403	26520	2796	3508	16710	2295	3410	7034	12880	7909	12790	3749	20670	4515	1824	11740	6278	7501	24760	8588	36210	11510	11940	6845	2034	6139	8956	6524	5637	23640	9837	3082	10290	13310	4437	6208	18590	18150	7546	31590	8894	5084	24250	9877	3561	10340	5121	15980	9457	14600	4219	15040	11540	33410	9450	6355	9750	11710	21430	5225	11220	2686	22760	6469	7020	4928	21870	6810	5594	7081	7969	1910	25500	34790	5672	3013	5519	24690	5331	7058	45120	15300	16040	15050	6039	4835	4932	5928	7424	15560	1751	5579	7707	4592	20190	5648	4894	6175	9065	5513	8770	11670	15170	14970	23250	7659	8009	17360	8658	5601	6151	3719	22910	16200	20520	5300	3866	22540	5660	16290	13490	17810	11770	19370	5495	5667	3077	11300	10050	5538	3064	11560	6524	18050	8145	4306	6489	29670	17950	5787	4964	7506	5346	26920	26400	25490	23190	18440	7272	8268	5924	7986	5177	8385	6657	1212	4712	9125	4787	8703	4221	6699	14960	31060	17710	5015	8665	24840	7075	8779	25170	6278	5436	11590	6496	11050	6909	5646	12620
2021-06-15	7579	6097	2950	5114	8618	3637	8640	6026	1526	15910	8395	9779	9889	12130	3909	23890	31020	20170	4336	17790	8412	8310	8445	15130	23060	22690	104600	7340	21890	9843	6193	5999	32240	5123	25770	7475	52140	10900	6932	29530	6979	12700	14970	31780	6133	25040	6346	9192	7307	10870	18800	13510	15390	5919	14640	7185	10360	26500	8275	10880	8400	7639	16790	1803	13010	12830	3952	9286	22410	22790	6220	5006	4401	8748	20200	2858	11510	4026	3221	5982	14670	2646	38860	24400	2908	8104	32020	8771	7625	10570	4397	4417	20370	3046	12940	24420	12110	7932	27350	4335	8018	32280	6956	3081	4250	5709	4988	8397	6577	3155	4972	5519	18730	9766	9012	6667	5958	3061	7635	30220	12550	5423	7434	5103	7116	5330	5697	6130	12430	9719	8148	3175	5104	14190	8394	46810	6684	3937	10410	5580	23040	7548	3482	22330	12130	4303	13550	5288	21400	8021	7939	21310	4550	9005	6261	7179	27180	7294	8369	5301	3850	27570	6357	5836	25870	8053	8961	3088	7760	2333	6892	15540	9480	6201	7812	20260	12860	37030	17640	25510	9797	66370	38510	4978	22270	6699	7022	7647	49620	21550	12850	3832	58260	8404	26540	2798	3508	16720	2296	3412	7042	12890	7911	12800	3769	20690	4519	1827	11740	6281	7504	24790	8591	36220	11510	11950	6863	2035	6142	8967	6528	5638	23690	9841	3082	10290	13340	4438	6210	18600	18180	7548	31630	8906	5088	24300	9890	3564	10360	5146	15980	9462	14610	4220	15080	11560	33420	9452	6360	9768	11750	21430	5257	11230	2688	22820	6470	7054	4929	21880	6814	5597	7088	7976	1911	25610	34790	5675	3018	5520	24720	5336	7064	45140	15300	16050	15060	6040	4863	4935	5931	7427	15560	1752	5582	7710	4594	20240	5650	4900	6188	9110	5514	8772	11690	15180	14970	23280	7666	8014	17370	8661	5611	6153	3729	23000	16200	20530	5303	3868	22560	5668	16310	13490	17820	11780	19410	5497	5671	3078	11310	10050	5543	3071	11560	6531	18050	8149	4306	6489	29700	17990	5789	4965	7507	5350	26940	26420	25510	23240	18470	7275	8275	5926	7987	5180	8390	6665	1212	4724	9130	4790	8727	4225	6701	14980	31120	17710	5016	8668	24870	7080	8800	25170	6281	5439	11590	6497	11060	6919	5648	12630
2021-06-16	7595	6104	2951	5116	8619	3658	8644	6028	1528	15920	8397	9781	9891	12140	3910	23890	31040	20190	4337	17800	8419	8313	8452	15160	23070	22690	104700	7348	22040	9870	6194	5999	32370	5125	25780	7493	52220	10900	6936	29560	6981	12700	14980	31820	6134	25060	6349	9194	7311	10910	18860	13510	15410	5922	14660	7187	10360	26510	8277	10890	8401	7643	16810	1804	13020	12830	3962	9289	22480	22840	6221	5007	4404	8772	20340	2870	11520	4032	3223	5985	14690	2648	38890	24420	2911	8110	32050	8776	7626	10580	4400	4421	20380	3047	12950	24430	12120	7934	27360	4342	8059	32310	6981	3082	4250	5725	4993	8402	6580	3166	4976	5540	18740	9770	9014	6667	5961	3064	7647	30230	12550	5428	7438	5107	7127	5332	5698	6132	12470	9721	8150	3178	5115	14210	8397	46960	6698	3938	10420	5581	23050	7552	3484	22350	12140	4306	13570	5291	21410	8022	7947	21320	4557	9008	6262	7180	27190	7302	8372	5310	3859	27590	6364	5841	25890	8058	9001	3092	7761	2334	6894	15570	9495	6203	7813	20270	12870	37100	17650	25560	9804	66470	38550	4979	22290	6703	7025	7649	49670	21570	12850	3836	58460	8407	26550	2800	3509	16740	2298	3414	7050	12890	7914	12800	3787	20710	4523	1830	11740	6282	7507	24820	8595	36240	11510	11950	6879	2035	6143	8977	6530	5640	23750	9846	3083	10300	13360	4440	6211	18610	18210	7550	31660	8917	5092	24350	9907	3567	10390	5167	15990	9469	14610	4220	15130	11580	33440	9455	6365	9787	11800	21430	5290	11240	2690	22880	6472	7088	4929	21890	6818	5600	7096	7983	1912	25710	34800	5678	3024	5523	24740	5341	7070	45160	15310	16060	15070	6041	4890	4939	5934	7429	15570	1753	5587	7713	4597	20290	5652	4906	6202	9157	5515	8774	11700	15180	14980	23320	7673	8019	17380	8664	5624	6156	3741	23090	16210	20530	5306	3871	22580	5677	16320	13490	17830	11780	19450	5498	5675	3079	11330	10060	5548	3078	11560	6538	18050	8151	4307	6490	29720	18020	5792	4967	7508	5356	26960	26440	25530	23290	18500	7278	8282	5927	7988	5182	8394	6670	1213	4736	9137	4792	8751	4231	6702	15010	31180	17720	5017	8671	24900	7086	8821	25180	6284	5443	11600	6499	11070	6930	5651	12640

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-06-09 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-06-09