COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-07-12 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-07-12

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-07-12

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-06-2812-2712-272021-06-2912-272021-06-282021-03-2512-2607-212021-03-2512-212021-06-3012-072021-06-2912-232021-06-302021-06-292021-06-2912-2712-232021-01-02 --12-312021-05-0912-262021-06-2912-2912-2712-27 --12-072021-01-072021-05-1011-132021-01-012021-05-262021-06-292021-06-2912-2712-272021-06-2712-0612-2812-3012-2512-212021-06-2812-22 --12-3012-272021-06-3010-282021-06-282021-06-3012-262021-06-302021-06-2912-272021-07-0112-2112-222021-06-0110-282021-06-2912-222021-07-012021-06-3012-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-212021-06-212021-06-282021-01-0412-262021-01-05 -- --2021-06-3012-21 -- --12-2712-272021-06-302021-06-2912-21 --2021-06-272021-06-2912-282021-01-02 --12-212021-06-2912-2712-0712-2612-222021-06-2912-2707-2112-24 --2021-06-2112-2412-212021-06-032021-06-1312-262021-06-30 --2021-06-3012-3012-2812-2112-2612-222021-06-2812-2112-22 --09-222021-06-2812-232021-07-0112-222021-06-282021-06-2912-2512-25 -- -- --10-042021-06-2912-2812-212021-06-3012-272021-06-292021-06-282021-07-0112-27 --2021-06-3012-212021-06-3012-2812-2712-2812-21 --2021-06-2912-272021-06-2912-2912-22 --2021-06-302021-06-0312-3012-222021-07-012021-06-302021-06-2912-212021-06-2612-212021-06-302021-06-292021-06-2912-282021-06-282021-06-2912-222021-06-2912-272021-07-012021-07-012021-06-292021-01-032021-06-3012-272021-06-302021-07-0112-2112-262021-06-3012-222021-06-2712-312021-06-282021-01-0212-222021-06-292021-01-0712-0812-21 --12-2112-2212-212021-03-25 --2021-06-272021-07-012021-06-3012-0607-212021-03-1812-28 --2021-06-29 --2021-06-3012-0612-2707-21 -- --2021-07-0112-2612-2110-0411-0112-21 -- -- -- --12-27 --2021-01-012021-06-3012-292021-06-272021-06-30 --2021-06-282021-06-302021-06-292021-06-282021-06-30 --2021-01-0112-062021-01-042021-06-282021-07-01 --2021-01-052021-05-2510-042021-07-0112-2712-2112-27 --2021-07-01 --12-132021-06-292021-06-2912-28 --12-252021-01-262021-01-022021-06-2912-292021-01-0312-2312-212021-06-2812-2912-222021-06-3007-2112-3012-25 --2021-07-0112-2912-2212-2112-28 -- --2021-01-0412-22 --10-042021-06-282021-06-292021-05-252021-01-0312-2812-27 --12-2112-142021-06-2912-2612-212021-07-0112-25 --12-222021-06-20 -- --11-012021-06-282021-06-28 --2021-06-2912-2112-0712-022021-06-04 --2021-06-2812-26 --2021-01-0412-2712-212021-06-2712-212021-06-2712-2212-22 --2021-06-2711-132021-06-292021-06-302021-06-3012-262021-06-3012-21 --2021-06-292021-06-292021-07-0112-252021-06-2912-2112-222021-06-292021-06-212021-06-3012-2012-1310-042021-06-30 --2021-06-2812-222021-06-302021-06-2912-2712-2912-222021-06-292021-07-0112-2712-222021-06-3012-3112-282021-06-3012-312021-05-30 --2021-06-302021-06-30
Peak daily increment 143 102 61 96 97 90 77 73 115 106 170 64 176 71 78 74 142 280 58 326 128 108 52 252 96 1249 75 157 95 58 208 50 484 16 340 65 107 524 60 233 307 319 107 508 82 186 122 122 35 137 65 118 87 63 100 172 28 175 107 27 41 113 268 47 49 249 283 59 91 71 64 448 19 243 5 19 288 288 37 43 164 151 50 31 58 246 170 303 187 118 322 119 180 536 296 60 74 76 160 7 107 51 69 63 163 146 107 56 146 78 273 97 81 87 90 21 94 250 57 125 54 631 69 56 180 57 451 47 25 154 218 118 57 122 172 103 338 103 50 120 90 101 159 94 27 57 115 112 61 72 74 47 18 27 127 78 70 31 146 198 247 311 194 109 665 284 52 457 59 53 102 727 94 200 31 36 426 92 419 50 46 105 298 62 153 186 26 106 118 34 62 65 23 105 390 107 190 212 186 240 105 50 389 105 58 277 121 232 90 20 232 127 11 53 115 50 203 43 102 61 109 81 19 150 56 52 188 39 50 96 142 57 85 174 36 25 202 448 42 83 82 206 65 131 330 24 209 244 38 42 110 102 69 42 86 460 37 42 13 80 66 102 248 293 173 131 156 139 94 112 44 197 51 38 21 331 189 270 18 92 109 140 349 90 38 138 48 360 138 34 15 170 190 41 110 25 84 137 113 196 227 96 138 117 50 29 52 87 29 79 76 108 67 28 99 217 264 83 53 258 106 138 123 106 115 69 95 14 47 137
Days since peak 14 197 197 13 197 14 109 198 356 109 203 12 217 13 201 12 13 13 197 201 191 193 64 198 13 195 197 197 217 186 63 241 192 47 13 13 197 197 15 218 196 194 199 203 14 202 194 197 12 257 14 12 198 12 13 197 11 203 202 41 257 13 202 11 12 202 203 190 203 203 21 14 189 198 188 12 203 197 197 12 13 203 15 13 196 191 203 13 197 217 198 202 13 197 356 200 21 200 203 39 29 198 12 12 194 196 203 198 202 14 203 202 293 14 201 11 202 14 13 199 199 281 13 196 203 12 197 13 14 11 197 12 203 12 196 197 196 203 13 197 13 195 202 12 39 194 202 11 12 13 203 16 203 12 13 13 196 14 13 202 13 197 11 11 13 190 12 197 12 11 203 198 12 202 15 193 14 191 202 13 186 216 203 203 202 203 109 15 11 12 218 356 116 196 13 12 218 197 356 11 198 203 281 253 203 197 192 12 195 15 12 14 12 13 14 12 192 218 189 14 11 188 48 281 11 197 203 197 11 211 13 13 196 199 167 191 13 195 190 201 203 14 195 202 12 356 194 199 11 195 202 203 196 189 202 281 14 13 48 190 196 197 203 210 13 198 203 11 199 202 22 253 14 14 13 203 217 222 38 14 198 189 197 203 15 203 15 202 202 15 241 13 12 12 198 12 203 13 13 11 199 13 203 202 13 21 12 204 211 281 12 14 202 12 13 197 195 202 13 11 197 202 12 193 196 12 193 43 12 12
Last total 10584 7965 3485 6120 9711 5359 9221 6646 2242 16538 9498 10832 10440 13396 4297 25043 33796 24468 5033 18909 9721 9366 10448 16324 24824 24307 117803 8160 24296 12309 6369 6523 35527 5678 29155 8321 58338 11859 7203 31651 7743 13246 18824 39163 6585 27128 7300 9902 8678 12575 21800 14100 18063 7177 17034 7784 11533 28344 9784 11321 8954 8458 19181 1978 14829 14407 5153 10225 25923 26620 6981 5872 5126 10483 30324 3275 13214 330 4737 3915 6260 19088 3227 50609 28028 3490 8931 34625 10164 9597 11279 4905 5082 22209 3543 14748 28511 13689 8365 29662 5025 11912 34921 8529 3465 5084 7311 5605 9839 7558 5361 5474 6949 21636 10810 9581 7106 7066 3486 8575 31760 13699 6319 8673 6438 8897 5927 5995 6490 17253 10934 8627 3689 6168 19021 9942 56109 8193 4307 11204 6034 25119 8439 3978 25108 13579 5210 15714 6058 23530 8799 9682 22827 5050 10929 7049 7849 28756 7925 9142 6498 5548 29772 7097 6696 27569 8933 10807 4146 8204 2617 7175 17995 10926 6518 8214 22161 13940 41243 20107 29260 11904 80189 41183 5705 24920 7681 7884 8294 58246 23292 14192 4184 3327 68971 9076 27887 3291 4022 6863 18227 2809 3673 8288 13357 8348 15392 5924 22766 5167 4557 2131 12069 7194 8578 32625 9918 38382 11941 13335 8206 2521 6901 12760 7545 6260 28045 11002 3247 12307 18062 5380 7359 19519 23086 8207 36174 10157 5545 28898 132 12092 3828 11800 7369 16944 12020 16299 4684 17116 12971 35394 12029 6865 10786 14394 22258 6196 12778 3275 26901 7130 8568 5360 24167 7788 6225 8819 8536 1938 2209 30475 37893 6569 4139 6072 29107 6310 7892 50875 300 17158 16754 18186 6671 5902 5493 6855 8327 18826 2278 5851 8383 5571 23523 6093 5542 7143 10501 6196 9427 16242 17609 16168 26615 8276 9468 19937 9729 6549 6686 4541 26739 19201 23583 6267 4636 29220 6091 17862 14216 18482 13136 22972 7050 6184 4014 12840 10782 6519 4026 11893 7274 18847 9009 5518 6877 1316 32971 22031 6517 5702 8013 6131 32632 28374 27591 26846 21427 9338 8989 6666 8765 5598 9299 7420 1385 6116 10611 5417 11023 4989 7195 16993 37676 20674 5837 9595 29684 7648 9687 27162 7334 6073 12737 7191 12442 8532 6280 15531
Last daily increment 91 79 27 85 125 85 45 32 19 45 80 102 38 86 52 73 173 256 46 90 133 115 146 87 133 128 756 58 82 136 6 37 164 52 235 74 413 74 25 147 49 29 161 449 60 142 57 60 107 75 140 14 156 41 111 53 41 57 100 9 74 36 157 9 117 134 42 78 238 243 60 73 44 94 300 12 113 0 5 71 19 188 33 654 233 52 74 173 78 178 73 35 17 146 46 63 282 95 27 144 31 95 150 38 35 76 34 54 98 66 56 51 47 286 76 59 50 64 24 60 116 98 53 120 55 51 49 13 15 170 35 31 62 89 307 124 321 58 32 57 58 137 41 2 162 64 80 85 36 111 72 112 113 45 152 34 40 135 49 57 90 64 173 72 58 96 64 63 40 43 3 20 113 60 35 34 220 65 239 102 184 110 743 124 35 151 65 51 33 355 118 92 28 44 385 91 113 42 57 3 102 30 22 72 21 20 242 84 143 33 9 47 16 80 131 324 81 138 15 57 37 45 64 209 64 30 200 100 14 176 224 63 89 91 343 35 303 109 32 232 4 80 5 69 93 79 254 88 15 106 68 106 272 51 84 94 21 36 118 48 204 54 70 29 201 63 45 117 55 11 19 183 218 85 52 44 210 51 71 371 9 148 50 220 34 31 51 65 72 200 32 28 54 80 118 45 42 55 61 73 51 274 133 119 196 54 123 119 87 69 44 35 235 310 238 53 49 433 34 132 87 10 113 194 53 44 71 96 99 73 36 25 61 82 76 106 6 23 148 157 35 45 21 62 360 146 100 203 181 82 45 48 60 31 52 75 13 43 88 46 62 72 28 87 327 207 51 55 248 49 57 129 97 57 8 61 91 85 44 172
Last week 590 418 160 500 505 428 279 267 99 241 439 418 221 363 179 415 891 1452 235 464 555 465 708 386 779 543 4068 272 444 729 65 189 850 195 1014 347 2056 380 111 743 256 246 966 2294 238 844 341 252 519 352 696 177 742 243 677 212 274 508 505 129 278 237 835 62 562 690 280 261 1126 1115 261 333 221 367 1851 63 560 12 202 307 113 1100 163 3357 1249 190 277 952 491 691 284 146 211 606 202 480 1579 522 158 841 139 626 799 181 186 325 245 246 506 379 362 201 295 1260 367 295 218 457 119 332 480 450 282 527 289 418 232 96 85 999 281 218 250 369 1593 563 1925 355 180 300 271 655 283 104 856 401 396 629 211 674 288 559 505 172 794 200 279 594 232 271 428 390 780 282 308 535 367 361 274 213 69 132 686 397 142 160 882 356 1330 647 1127 525 3847 745 266 892 312 272 243 2012 556 457 149 173 2298 280 534 235 233 39 477 213 100 451 134 137 1238 479 699 211 99 126 84 354 504 2152 460 607 160 372 223 235 314 1175 330 222 1067 454 64 731 1296 377 456 338 1759 285 1318 443 134 1260 24 465 52 302 395 302 1237 529 188 479 344 591 1221 210 421 491 271 202 499 198 1199 303 367 148 908 336 243 569 190 66 93 1147 1047 373 198 186 1106 270 331 1893 25 600 203 1041 211 183 212 305 364 1216 204 117 257 322 660 187 212 305 307 323 237 1607 748 501 1036 234 507 731 388 339 195 182 1161 1329 1051 256 191 2300 131 556 328 181 540 937 365 225 392 436 336 403 177 119 269 291 321 503 147 79 892 995 221 278 138 262 1885 747 656 1118 855 475 267 244 283 112 286 271 65 258 402 240 509 295 151 559 1601 980 294 281 1366 211 299 667 487 241 301 311 447 552 267 766
Previous peak date07-2107-21 --12-2610-2707-2112-2110-07 --12-21 --12-27 --12-21 --12-2812-2310-1310-20 -- --10-2611-0212-2110-0712-2211-02 --10-1310-12 --10-2510-15 --11-0212-2110-2412-22 -- --12-14 --10-1611-02 -- --12-26 --2021-01-0409-2710-2712-07 --12-2112-27 --12-0812-0610-2512-08 --10-1012-21 --11-02 --12-2812-2510-18 --10-20 -- --12-3007-2107-2110-14 --12-2812-2712-2709-1612-2411-0210-3110-3112-2712-2710-1712-2712-2112-2110-2110-2712-2710-0110-1410-12 -- --07-2107-21 -- -- --2021-01-0307-2110-27 --11-0907-2110-2707-2110-3112-2710-29 --10-25 --10-0612-25 -- --2021-01-04 --07-21 --12-27 --07-2112-25 -- --10-1510-2812-2707-2112-21 -- --12-21 --12-212021-01-0512-2209-2812-2712-21 --12-21 --10-2710-28 --12-2712-1310-2912-13 --10-1712-2907-2112-2811-01 --12-2612-212021-01-0107-2112-2806-1112-2712-2212-28 --12-2511-0110-1310-2709-2912-292021-01-0611-0211-0212-21 --12-2711-0210-1209-2812-27 --12-21 --11-0210-25 -- -- -- --10-1512-28 -- --10-1212-2112-3107-2112-2212-27 -- --12-07 --12-2711-0211-0112-27 --09-24 --12-1310-1410-26 -- --07-21 -- --12-2811-042021-01-072021-01-0408-0212-21 --11-0211-0111-0210-22 --12-2712-2812-2607-212021-01-062021-01-0511-02 --11-0212-2912-2112-3110-2612-2207-2112-0610-1110-10 --10-1912-1310-11 --10-1812-30 --10-11 -- -- --11-0211-0210-3107-21 --12-2810-25 --11-02 --10-28 --12-2712-2107-21 -- --10-2512-2712-27 -- --12-2707-2112-2112-2212-2010-13 --10-2412-22 -- --12-28 --10-1712-25 --10-26 --07-2112-292021-01-02 --12-2112-2312-2212-27 -- -- --12-2510-192021-01-02 --2021-01-0410-2910-1110-1812-26 --12-21 -- --2021-01-0312-06 --12-2112-2712-22 --12-08 --10-2712-2712-2712-1510-2211-02 --10-2212-2112-2712-26 -- --07-2111-0212-0707-21 --12-2812-2210-1510-26 --12-2212-2810-3010-1112-2711-03 --12-2510-2812-2112-3112-2611-02
Previous peak daily increment 605 366 88 80 285 134 40 260 110 178 477 589 189 31 85 277 233 262 426 1200 166 106 55 234 355 142 434 228 155 62 1167 94 64 72 160 211 99 256 148 354 39 194 60 303 292 52 197 121 54 65 1221 82 35 37 61 94 31 34 551 128 19 181 598 22 77 189 72 25 164 27 206 248 59 216 684 60 370 25 106 184 31 226 206 102 24 30 29 593 75 457 74 661 150 47 132 84 1697 92 92 119 34 377 70 68 201 401 68 57 120 136 38 476 22 56 139 442 49 452 143 83 239 134 44 237 275 148 100 283 46 349 153 428 107 1522 469 104 71 229 71 480 274 90 2166 61 44 36 109 105 205 296 361 79 191 68 2512 86 723 91 26 53 137 969 134 116 40 60 68 168 1362 60 68 257 125 44 108 227 154 132 347 156 174 623 107 41 176 445 286 41 46 203 138 69 198 80 70 417 233 80 147 407 33 557 104 171 97 218 67 206 29 52 839 94 79 108 66 75 115 451 20 222 56 144 203 153 67 42 217 105 181 183 56 53 89 27 17 44 123 58 101 559 151 90 120 245 329 449 390 135 260 23 160 65 154 296 165 43 369 115 217 317 69 148 431 22 25 377 38 176 32 173 76 69 573
Low between peaks 0 -1 -2 28 0 8 18 13 2 -17 3 -2 9 8 20 -12 48 3 307 55 19 17 31 -8 31 -4 -11 21 64 -10 34 53 0 2 -17 -64 5 7 2 25 -1 -7 -11 -3 -49 17 4 -11 -4 -19 3 12 42 -10 -8 -4 -33 1 -7 9 53 34 1 -64 -2 -3 -3 -35 -2 -5 12 -1 1 -10 8 -67 -80 -4 0 -5 1 -7 -13 -8 -21 1 -27 22 -5 -12 -114 -4 -8 18 -19 -63 -1 -27 15 12 -5 3 -2 -7 0 -5 -5 -5 -3 -12 18 27 20 2 -5 40 120 1 0 -9 21 58 7 0 27 21 -23 39 6 -15 0 -3 7 15 4 23 -3 -7 7 6 28 1 6 1 1 3 1 5 37 38 -8 1 13 -13 -2 1 -20 -118 0 0 -2 2 92 19 -4 -45 14 23 33 -10 -2 24 -7 -11 -5 -1 28 24 -16 -73 -39 -1 -7 -12 -4 -9 -8 31 11 7 -4 2 0 5 0 -18 1 -9 -22 -4 -29 -4 -68 -13 -5 1 -2 1 -2 -12 7 77 -99 -5 -68 -18 -8 -19 8 2 12 0 -6 -48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-13 to 2021-07-19

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-07-12 10584 7965 3485 6120 9711 5359 9221 6646 2242 16538 9498 10832 10440 13396 4297 25043 33796 24468 5033 18909 9721 9366 10448 16324 24824 24307 117803 8160 24296 12309 6369 6523 35527 5678 29155 8321 58338 11859 7203 31651 7743 13246 18824 39163 6585 27128 7300 9902 8678 12575 21800 14100 18063 7177 17034 7784 11533 28344 9784 11321 8954 8458 19181 1978 14829 14407 5153 10225 25923 26620 6981 5872 5126 10483 30324 3275 13214 330 4737 3915 6260 19088 3227 50609 28028 3490 8931 34625 10164 9597 11279 4905 5082 22209 3543 14748 28511 13689 8365 29662 5025 11912 34921 8529 3465 5084 7311 5605 9839 7558 5361 5474 6949 21636 10810 9581 7106 7066 3486 8575 31760 13699 6319 8673 6438 8897 5927 5995 6490 17253 10934 8627 3689 6168 19021 9942 56109 8193 4307 11204 6034 25119 8439 3978 25108 13579 5210 15714 6058 23530 8799 9682 22827 5050 10929 7049 7849 28756 7925 9142 6498 5548 29772 7097 6696 27569 8933 10807 4146 8204 2617 7175 17995 10926 6518 8214 22161 13940 41243 20107 29260 11904 80189 41183 5705 24920 7681 7884 8294 58246 23292 14192 4184 3327 68971 9076 27887 3291 4022 6863 18227 2809 3673 8288 13357 8348 15392 5924 22766 5167 4557 2131 12069 7194 8578 32625 9918 38382 11941 13335 8206 2521 6901 12760 7545 6260 28045 11002 3247 12307 18062 5380 7359 19519 23086 8207 36174 10157 5545 28898 132 12092 3828 11800 7369 16944 12020 16299 4684 17116 12971 35394 12029 6865 10786 14394 22258 6196 12778 3275 26901 7130 8568 5360 24167 7788 6225 8819 8536 1938 2209 30475 37893 6569 4139 6072 29107 6310 7892 50875 300 17158 16754 18186 6671 5902 5493 6855 8327 18826 2278 5851 8383 5571 23523 6093 5542 7143 10501 6196 9427 16242 17609 16168 26615 8276 9468 19937 9729 6549 6686 4541 26739 19201 23583 6267 4636 29220 6091 17862 14216 18482 13136 22972 7050 6184 4014 12840 10782 6519 4026 11893 7274 18847 9009 5518 6877 1316 32971 22031 6517 5702 8013 6131 32632 28374 27591 26846 21427 9338 8989 6666 8765 5598 9299 7420 1385 6116 10611 5417 11023 4989 7195 16993 37676 20674 5837 9595 29684 7648 9687 27162 7334 6073 12737 7191 12442 8532 6280 15531
2021-07-13 10730 8063 3518 6222 9780 5431 9263 6696 2292 16580 9580 10920 10450 13470 4338 25120 33870 24720 5072 18980 9800 9460 10570 16400 24960 24400 118000 8200 24430 12430 6378 6555 35600 5704 29230 8378 58670 11920 7214 31780 7775 13270 19050 39380 6622 27240 7352 9950 8803 12650 21880 14130 18170 7240 17140 7814 11620 28450 9870 11350 9008 8498 19340 1989 14930 14530 5196 10270 26100 26710 7019 5918 5162 10540 30870 3289 13310 331 4752 3979 6283 19130 3255 51170 28250 3490 8989 34780 10240 9647 11330 4933 5101 22270 3585 14820 28840 13780 8391 29750 5051 12160 35040 8578 3496 5143 7437 5650 9920 7618 5434 5509 7041 21810 10850 9635 7145 7071 3503 8623 31860 13770 6363 8791 6489 8992 5963 6011 6503 17750 10980 8671 3689 6241 19360 10050 56690 8259 4332 11250 6076 25230 8480 3989 25250 13640 5284 15810 6093 23630 8843 9760 22900 5086 11090 7123 7885 28860 7954 9191 6626 5658 29900 7147 6726 27670 8978 10910 4192 8237 2621 7197 18100 10990 6540 8245 22320 14000 41350 20190 29430 11980 80800 41280 5747 25050 7737 7938 8335 58710 23380 14220 4211 3327 69390 9115 27970 3326 4056 6867 18300 2838 3690 8355 13380 8369 15680 6006 22870 5199 4574 2131 12080 7227 8683 32970 10040 38490 11970 13400 8250 2575 6949 12910 7600 6308 28220 11070 3257 12450 18270 5447 7489 19580 23420 8248 36400 10230 5564 29120 136 12240 3837 11860 7452 16990 12260 16390 4707 17160 13020 35480 12220 6899 10850 14640 22290 6228 12860 3319 27160 7141 8637 5380 24300 7830 6263 8955 8577 1947 2219 30670 37920 6630 4178 6113 29340 6353 7945 51030 302 17230 16760 18440 6705 5935 5529 6912 8379 19030 2315 5874 8430 5629 23670 6131 5582 7198 10550 6254 9446 16350 17730 16250 26770 8312 9540 20070 9750 6615 6716 4573 26950 19580 23760 6330 4668 29690 6113 17960 14270 18500 13230 23210 7131 6225 4134 12910 10860 6584 4083 11910 7318 18890 9023 5622 6906 1326 33110 22210 6552 5773 8036 6167 32980 28530 27690 27020 21430 9424 9032 6699 8815 5620 9350 7472 1392 6195 10670 5468 11150 5033 7219 17080 37980 20740 5880 9661 29940 7692 9740 27240 7423 6126 12760 7239 12510 8616 6312 15650
2021-07-14 10830 8135 3558 6319 9870 5504 9301 6757 2325 16610 9660 11000 10470 13540 4373 25210 34000 24920 5112 19050 9830 9570 10700 16460 25100 24490 118500 8246 24560 12550 6387 6589 35730 5738 29370 8419 59060 11970 7232 31930 7798 13310 19220 39730 6664 27320 7402 10000 8908 12710 21980 14160 18220 7347 17240 7851 11700 28540 9950 11370 9049 8551 19520 2004 15020 14620 5233 10310 26320 26880 7046 5969 5194 10600 31280 3317 13400 331 4772 4047 6305 19250 3281 51750 28490 3522 9043 34940 10290 9647 11380 4965 5110 22350 3631 14910 29140 13860 8421 29860 5085 12330 35140 8699 3526 5202 7509 5688 10010 7672 5545 5542 7100 21900 10910 9682 7188 7112 3518 8652 31950 13850 6399 8908 6544 9084 5983 6028 6507 18080 11040 8702 3731 6308 19750 10160 57140 8331 4360 11280 6122 25320 8510 4003 25380 13710 5367 15910 6127 23720 8882 9850 22950 5113 11290 7174 7909 28960 7963 9240 6729 5748 30010 7193 6767 27790 9041 10980 4259 8280 2622 7225 18220 11070 6566 8265 22470 14050 41550 20230 29590 12070 81490 41390 5796 25130 7786 7977 8378 59120 23450 14280 4241 3350 69790 9154 28050 3361 4090 6871 18360 2853 3709 8408 13410 8394 15960 6114 22930 5232 4592 2147 12080 7284 8773 33300 10140 38570 11990 13470 8314 2620 7002 13010 7648 6349 28410 11120 3267 12610 18500 5525 7599 19650 23780 8297 36630 10280 5565 29350 140 12350 3848 11900 7554 17040 12500 16500 4730 17220 13080 35560 12380 6923 10910 14780 22320 6256 12920 3359 27430 7167 8718 5405 24440 7854 6299 9072 8610 1954 2221 30860 38020 6684 4231 6151 29560 6388 7990 51260 302 17320 16770 18660 6745 5981 5554 6965 8417 19240 2361 5895 8473 5685 23800 6161 5630 7252 10600 6308 9483 16630 17860 16290 26910 8336 9620 20190 9800 6692 6739 4615 27150 19900 23910 6382 4706 30280 6129 18060 14290 18520 13320 23450 7193 6264 4241 12980 10940 6647 4118 11930 7359 18940 9067 5752 6944 1328 33250 22390 6583 5837 8061 6180 33360 28670 27770 27170 21490 9529 9072 6709 8863 5650 9404 7530 1396 6249 10730 5533 11270 5072 7241 17200 38310 20860 5927 9716 30200 7735 9790 27330 7509 6170 12790 7282 12560 8694 6352 15730
2021-07-15 10940 8206 3594 6408 9950 5573 9340 6811 2351 16650 9740 11080 10500 13610 4409 25290 34110 25150 5150 19130 9870 9670 10820 16530 25240 24580 119000 8298 24650 12660 6396 6621 35850 5771 29510 8465 59390 12030 7247 32060 7825 13330 19410 40040 6696 27420 7452 10050 8998 12770 22090 14190 18290 7434 17330 7887 11750 28640 10030 11400 9094 8597 19680 2017 15110 14730 5273 10360 26510 27020 7079 6025 5227 10650 31600 3338 13500 331 4791 4113 6328 19390 3308 52250 28710 3556 9103 35090 10350 9647 11420 4994 5124 22430 3674 14990 29390 13950 8448 29980 5115 12450 35250 8785 3556 5255 7562 5731 10090 7727 5625 5578 7168 22030 10970 9723 7220 7156 3533 8689 32040 13930 6438 9012 6596 9154 6010 6038 6515 18330 11090 8738 3775 6361 20120 10260 57540 8388 4388 11320 6169 25410 8545 4018 25520 13770 5442 16010 6160 23820 8924 9930 23010 5144 11480 7214 7937 29060 7981 9288 6821 5829 30130 7240 6816 27880 9096 11050 4314 8318 2625 7249 18330 11140 6586 8293 22620 14110 41700 20300 29760 12140 82130 41490 5842 25230 7836 8019 8419 59500 23520 14340 4269 3378 70170 9203 28140 3395 4128 6874 18420 2875 3726 8467 13440 8417 16230 6206 23000 5264 4609 2167 12090 7331 8856 33630 10210 38660 12010 13540 8368 2664 7054 13120 7698 6389 28570 11180 3278 12750 18720 5598 7684 19700 24120 8342 36840 10340 5574 29570 144 12440 3857 11950 7642 17090 12740 16600 4753 17300 13140 35640 12550 6951 10970 14920 22360 6285 12990 3396 27670 7196 8791 5424 24580 7885 6335 9175 8645 1961 2226 31040 38100 6741 4275 6184 29750 6427 8037 51490 302 17410 16780 18850 6776 6019 5582 7017 8462 19440 2402 5915 8516 5740 23910 6193 5673 7305 10650 6362 9519 16860 17970 16350 27050 8365 9700 20320 9860 6758 6764 4651 27350 20190 24070 6430 4741 30830 6147 18150 14330 18540 13410 23630 7246 6302 4308 13040 11010 6710 4154 11940 7400 18980 9105 5865 6977 1334 33390 22530 6617 5896 8084 6202 33670 28810 27850 27330 21570 9622 9112 6729 8911 5675 9455 7585 1402 6286 10800 5590 11360 5115 7272 17280 38590 20990 5972 9767 30450 7777 9840 27430 7595 6216 12820 7326 12610 8774 6395 15810
2021-07-16 11030 8267 3627 6483 10020 5639 9379 6862 2375 16690 9810 11150 10520 13660 4444 25370 34230 25370 5186 19190 9930 9760 10920 16590 25370 24660 119400 8336 24730 12780 6405 6652 35950 5795 29640 8513 59700 12080 7261 32180 7854 13360 19570 40320 6730 27520 7500 10100 9078 12830 22180 14230 18380 7507 17430 7922 11800 28710 10110 11430 9139 8639 19830 2028 15200 14830 5313 10400 26670 27170 7113 6066 5260 10700 31880 3356 13580 331 4809 4175 6352 19540 3334 52790 28900 3588 9158 35240 10420 9647 11470 5021 5141 22500 3714 15070 29640 14030 8473 30070 5141 12540 35360 8853 3586 5305 7621 5763 10170 7783 5696 5607 7215 22160 11020 9773 7258 7204 3549 8729 32130 14000 6477 9121 6645 9220 6038 6047 6525 18550 11140 8775 3817 6411 20470 10350 57870 8447 4413 11360 6209 25510 8581 4031 25650 13830 5509 16110 6193 23910 8966 10010 23080 5174 11650 7246 7968 29160 8003 9334 6913 5903 30240 7286 6864 27960 9144 11110 4363 8351 2630 7272 18430 11200 6609 8319 22760 14160 41850 20360 29920 12200 82730 41600 5884 25330 7889 8058 8459 59830 23600 14400 4296 3406 70520 9251 28220 3428 4160 6878 18480 2898 3743 8527 13460 8438 16470 6288 23090 5295 4625 2186 12100 7373 8927 33950 10260 38750 12040 13610 8417 2706 7108 13250 7749 6428 28730 11250 3287 12890 18930 5667 7745 19760 24450 8385 37030 10400 5587 29740 147 12520 3866 11990 7721 17140 12970 16690 4776 17360 13190 35720 12720 6980 11040 15030 22400 6314 13060 3431 27850 7232 8858 5447 24720 7921 6371 9272 8680 1969 2234 31210 38200 6798 4315 6219 29940 6466 8085 51740 302 17480 16810 19030 6806 6054 5612 7069 8509 19640 2439 5932 8558 5794 23990 6224 5713 7357 10700 6408 9548 17090 18090 16420 27190 8395 9770 20420 9910 6816 6791 4684 27540 20470 24230 6470 4774 31330 6165 18240 14370 18570 13500 23800 7304 6339 4374 13100 11080 6771 4183 11960 7441 19020 9146 5965 7007 1341 33520 22680 6647 5956 8107 6229 33930 28950 27940 27490 21680 9707 9152 6753 8957 5697 9505 7634 1408 6330 10860 5642 11450 5158 7296 17360 38850 21120 6016 9812 30670 7817 9890 27530 7677 6256 12850 7371 12670 8855 6436 15910
2021-07-17 11090 8313 3660 6549 10100 5704 9418 6911 2384 16720 9880 11220 10550 13720 4478 25440 34360 25600 5222 19250 9990 9850 11030 16650 25500 24750 119800 8377 24790 12900 6414 6683 36030 5826 29770 8562 59980 12140 7273 32310 7883 13400 19670 40540 6764 27620 7549 10140 9137 12870 22260 14250 18460 7577 17530 7946 11820 28780 10190 11450 9185 8680 19990 2040 15290 14940 5354 10440 26800 27280 7147 6117 5293 10750 32120 3373 13670 331 4826 4238 6373 19660 3361 53150 29070 3621 9212 35380 10490 9647 11510 5048 5159 22580 3755 15150 29880 14100 8499 30170 5168 12630 35470 8916 3616 5353 7660 5806 10260 7839 5763 5631 7254 22300 11060 9814 7287 7265 3565 8769 32220 14070 6517 9227 6693 9259 6067 6059 6535 18720 11190 8807 3858 6452 20820 10440 58120 8490 4437 11400 6243 25600 8618 4045 25780 13890 5574 16200 6226 24010 9008 10080 23140 5204 11820 7278 7999 29250 8026 9380 6990 5957 30360 7332 6902 28040 9195 11140 4411 8384 2634 7295 18540 11270 6632 8334 22910 14210 42000 20430 30080 12240 83270 41670 5927 25450 7932 8090 8498 60100 23680 14460 4322 3435 70790 9297 28300 3461 4192 6882 18550 2923 3760 8588 13480 8460 16650 6367 23170 5326 4641 2205 12110 7411 8990 34270 10300 38840 12060 13670 8465 2747 7157 13380 7799 6466 28860 11310 3296 13030 19140 5736 7809 19800 24790 8427 37180 10460 5601 29900 151 12590 3876 12010 7798 17180 13210 16760 4799 17410 13240 35810 12900 7009 11100 15140 22440 6344 13130 3465 28040 7265 8926 5468 24860 7957 6407 9355 8715 1977 2242 31350 38280 6856 4354 6250 30070 6505 8134 51980 302 17540 16830 19190 6840 6088 5642 7121 8556 19840 2475 5950 8600 5848 24070 6251 5753 7408 10750 6457 9578 17290 18200 16480 27330 8426 9850 20510 9960 6872 6818 4715 27740 20750 24390 6501 4807 31830 6184 18330 14410 18590 13580 23940 7347 6376 4448 13160 11150 6832 4207 11970 7483 19060 9186 6064 7035 1349 33660 22800 6682 6013 8129 6257 34170 29070 28030 27650 21770 9790 9193 6779 9004 5719 9555 7677 1415 6361 10920 5694 11510 5202 7315 17430 39090 21210 6061 9860 30860 7857 9940 27620 7760 6291 12880 7415 12730 8937 6472 16010
2021-07-18 11150 8364 3692 6616 10170 5768 9457 6960 2392 16760 9960 11300 10570 13770 4512 25510 34480 25830 5258 19340 10050 9940 11150 16720 25620 24830 120300 8422 24830 13020 6423 6714 36160 5855 29910 8613 60270 12200 7286 32420 7914 13420 19780 40800 6801 27730 7598 10190 9207 12910 22340 14280 18560 7642 17630 7981 11860 28860 10270 11460 9233 8720 20140 2051 15380 15050 5395 10480 26960 27440 7183 6170 5326 10810 32300 3388 13760 331 4844 4301 6394 19810 3388 53590 29260 3655 9263 35530 10560 9647 11560 5074 5178 22690 3796 15220 30100 14180 8524 30280 5193 12690 35580 8970 3645 5400 7683 5843 10340 7896 5804 5661 7287 22450 11110 9859 7319 7327 3582 8813 32300 14140 6558 9317 6741 9307 6099 6071 6546 18860 11240 8850 3904 6491 21160 10520 58360 8540 4465 11440 6283 25700 8656 4058 25910 13950 5637 16290 6259 24100 9052 10140 23210 5235 11990 7308 8033 29350 8052 9425 7061 6000 30480 7379 6946 28110 9250 11180 4455 8415 2640 7317 18640 11330 6661 8359 23060 14270 42150 20500 30250 12300 83810 41760 5969 25570 7970 8130 8537 60350 23760 14520 4348 3466 71070 9341 28380 3494 4226 6886 18610 2950 3776 8651 13510 8481 16840 6443 23260 5357 4657 2225 12120 7467 9052 34590 10350 38940 12080 13730 8510 2787 7204 13520 7851 6505 28990 11380 3305 13170 19340 5804 7863 19860 25120 8468 37340 10530 5616 30060 155 12640 3884 12050 7871 17230 13450 16850 4821 17470 13300 35890 13080 7040 11160 15230 22460 6374 13210 3499 28220 7299 8992 5490 25000 7995 6443 9436 8750 1986 2250 31500 38370 6914 4391 6289 30200 6546 8183 52220 303 17630 16860 19370 6867 6120 5674 7173 8606 20030 2510 5968 8643 5902 24140 6276 5792 7460 10790 6496 9611 17470 18310 16550 27480 8458 9930 20620 10010 6924 6847 4745 27940 21020 24550 6536 4839 32330 6204 18420 14450 18620 13670 24110 7393 6413 4496 13230 11220 6894 4231 11990 7525 19100 9233 6159 7063 1357 33790 22920 6716 6070 8151 6289 34420 29180 28120 27810 21900 9870 9234 6808 9050 5740 9605 7727 1422 6387 10960 5744 11560 5247 7334 17510 39350 21350 6104 9904 31030 7897 9990 27710 7844 6326 12900 7461 12790 9020 6505 16110
2021-07-19 11260 8434 3724 6692 10270 5831 9497 7008 2413 16800 10030 11380 10610 13840 4547 25590 34620 26070 5294 19410 10120 10030 11270 16780 25750 24920 121000 8466 24920 13140 6432 6744 36300 5893 30110 8665 60630 12260 7306 32540 7945 13450 19960 41170 6847 27830 7647 10240 9282 12980 22470 14300 18660 7704 17730 8020 11900 28920 10350 11470 9280 8760 20290 2062 15480 15160 5437 10530 27170 27640 7219 6231 5360 10860 32640 3403 13850 332 4862 4365 6408 19980 3415 54180 29470 3689 9316 35680 10630 9647 11610 5100 5198 22800 3836 15300 30360 14260 8549 30410 5218 12800 35700 9020 3676 5446 7724 5887 10420 7953 5875 5702 7337 22600 11180 9907 7360 7387 3598 8857 32390 14210 6600 9425 6788 9368 6131 6084 6558 19020 11280 8882 3945 6548 21510 10600 58690 8603 4493 11480 6331 25800 8695 4071 26040 14010 5698 16390 6292 24200 9095 10230 23280 5267 12160 7346 8066 29450 8079 9471 7146 6072 30610 7426 6998 28200 9305 11260 4498 8446 2645 7339 18750 11390 6686 8390 23200 14320 42360 20580 30410 12410 84460 41880 6010 25690 8025 8176 8576 60690 23840 14600 4373 3496 71420 9399 28460 3527 4271 6891 18680 2977 3792 8715 13530 8502 17070 6517 23350 5388 4672 2245 12130 7530 9131 34910 10410 39030 12100 13800 8554 2828 7258 13660 7903 6543 29160 11440 3315 13310 19540 5873 7932 19920 25450 8508 37580 10590 5633 30280 158 12720 3893 12120 7942 17290 13690 16930 4844 17570 13350 35980 13270 7070 11230 15300 22490 6405 13280 3532 28410 7346 9057 5515 25140 8035 6480 9524 8786 1994 2260 31670 38550 6973 4426 6319 30390 6586 8233 52540 305 17750 16900 19570 6899 6152 5707 7225 8656 20230 2544 5992 8685 5956 24270 6313 5830 7511 10840 6555 9652 17720 18420 16620 27620 8490 10010 20730 10080 6975 6875 4774 28140 21290 24720 6584 4870 32820 6224 18510 14500 18630 13750 24280 7452 6451 4552 13310 11280 6955 4268 12010 7567 19170 9292 6253 7090 1366 33920 23080 6749 6107 8172 6321 34760 29310 28210 27970 22050 9949 9275 6838 9096 5761 9654 7777 1430 6431 11040 5794 11630 5292 7359 17590 39640 21520 6148 9951 31260 7936 10040 27820 7927 6374 12920 7507 12860 9104 6546 16210

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-13 to 2021-07-19

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-07-12 10584 7965 3485 6120 9711 5359 9221 6646 2242 16538 9498 10832 10440 13396 4297 25043 33796 24468 5033 18909 9721 9366 10448 16324 24824 24307 117803 8160 24296 12309 6369 6523 35527 5678 29155 8321 58338 11859 7203 31651 7743 13246 18824 39163 6585 27128 7300 9902 8678 12575 21800 14100 18063 7177 17034 7784 11533 28344 9784 11321 8954 8458 19181 1978 14829 14407 5153 10225 25923 26620 6981 5872 5126 10483 30324 3275 13214 330 4737 3915 6260 19088 3227 50609 28028 3490 8931 34625 10164 9597 11279 4905 5082 22209 3543 14748 28511 13689 8365 29662 5025 11912 34921 8529 3465 5084 7311 5605 9839 7558 5361 5474 6949 21636 10810 9581 7106 7066 3486 8575 31760 13699 6319 8673 6438 8897 5927 5995 6490 17253 10934 8627 3689 6168 19021 9942 56109 8193 4307 11204 6034 25119 8439 3978 25108 13579 5210 15714 6058 23530 8799 9682 22827 5050 10929 7049 7849 28756 7925 9142 6498 5548 29772 7097 6696 27569 8933 10807 4146 8204 2617 7175 17995 10926 6518 8214 22161 13940 41243 20107 29260 11904 80189 41183 5705 24920 7681 7884 8294 58246 23292 14192 4184 3327 68971 9076 27887 3291 4022 6863 18227 2809 3673 8288 13357 8348 15392 5924 22766 5167 4557 2131 12069 7194 8578 32625 9918 38382 11941 13335 8206 2521 6901 12760 7545 6260 28045 11002 3247 12307 18062 5380 7359 19519 23086 8207 36174 10157 5545 28898 132 12092 3828 11800 7369 16944 12020 16299 4684 17116 12971 35394 12029 6865 10786 14394 22258 6196 12778 3275 26901 7130 8568 5360 24167 7788 6225 8819 8536 1938 2209 30475 37893 6569 4139 6072 29107 6310 7892 50875 300 17158 16754 18186 6671 5902 5493 6855 8327 18826 2278 5851 8383 5571 23523 6093 5542 7143 10501 6196 9427 16242 17609 16168 26615 8276 9468 19937 9729 6549 6686 4541 26739 19201 23583 6267 4636 29220 6091 17862 14216 18482 13136 22972 7050 6184 4014 12840 10782 6519 4026 11893 7274 18847 9009 5518 6877 1316 32971 22031 6517 5702 8013 6131 32632 28374 27591 26846 21427 9338 8989 6666 8765 5598 9299 7420 1385 6116 10611 5417 11023 4989 7195 16993 37676 20674 5837 9595 29684 7648 9687 27162 7334 6073 12737 7191 12442 8532 6280 15531
2021-07-13 10700 8051 3518 6197 9790 5447 9260 6684 2268 16570 9575 10910 10470 13460 4328 25110 33930 24710 5069 18980 9810 9451 10570 16400 24930 24400 118400 8204 24370 12420 6378 6554 35660 5713 29310 8378 58690 11920 7222 31770 7789 13280 19010 39550 6626 27260 7356 9950 8775 12640 21920 14130 18190 7222 17150 7822 11590 28440 9870 11340 9006 8500 19320 1987 14920 14510 5195 10270 26130 26810 7023 5926 5167 10550 30770 3290 13310 332 4761 3970 6277 19260 3259 51290 28240 3519 8986 34780 10240 9710 11330 4938 5110 22310 3579 14820 28790 13780 8392 29800 5053 12070 35050 8574 3494 5140 7374 5653 9920 7621 5431 5508 7017 21850 10870 9627 7140 7131 3506 8630 31850 13780 6367 8764 6493 8977 5965 6013 6502 17520 10980 8662 3729 6233 19310 10040 56520 8253 4332 11250 6073 25230 8479 3994 25260 13640 5278 15810 6091 23640 8852 9790 22910 5082 11070 7095 7889 28850 7959 9188 6577 5638 29910 7145 6743 27650 8989 10880 4202 8231 2628 7192 18110 10990 6542 8241 22320 14000 41460 20210 29470 11990 80920 41330 5747 25060 7740 7938 8331 58630 23390 14260 4210 3354 69380 9137 27980 3323 4061 6869 18310 2839 3691 8359 13380 8370 15600 6015 22890 5198 4575 2152 12080 7253 8656 32970 10000 38500 11970 13400 8249 2560 6951 12990 7603 6295 28230 11080 3260 12440 18300 5440 7447 19580 23400 8247 36430 10240 5565 29130 135 12210 3836 11860 7454 16990 12240 16380 4711 17200 13030 35490 12240 6903 10860 14510 22300 6230 12860 3308 27130 7171 8631 5379 24320 7843 6261 8922 8572 1947 2225 30680 38070 6630 4180 6103 29320 6357 7949 51190 304 17270 16790 18390 6701 5936 5528 6905 8389 19020 2315 5869 8426 5629 23630 6125 5587 7198 10550 6251 9455 16540 17740 16250 26780 8314 9560 20080 9790 6608 6720 4579 26940 19450 23760 6315 4673 29620 6115 17960 14270 18500 13230 23150 7111 6219 4085 12920 10850 6584 4064 11910 7325 18910 9061 5603 6892 1328 33120 22210 6559 5746 8037 6178 32970 28500 27690 27040 21550 9428 9032 6706 8810 5625 9347 7468 1395 6175 10670 5457 11120 5043 7218 17090 37960 20840 5888 9646 29930 7683 9737 27260 7419 6116 12780 7239 12520 8623 6316 15670
2021-07-14 10820 8131 3549 6272 9850 5534 9295 6725 2294 16600 9646 10970 10500 13540 4347 25180 34060 24960 5098 19030 9880 9516 10690 16460 25030 24480 119100 8239 24470 12520 6387 6583 35810 5741 29450 8423 59030 11970 7239 31890 7832 13320 19190 39960 6657 27380 7415 9980 8862 12700 22020 14160 18300 7290 17260 7856 11660 28540 9950 11360 9036 8551 19470 1997 15020 14600 5237 10300 26320 26980 7062 5970 5207 10610 31230 3310 13410 334 4791 4017 6293 19410 3287 51920 28460 3537 9028 34910 10310 9800 11370 4966 5139 22400 3607 14920 29060 13860 8417 29930 5081 12250 35180 8641 3517 5186 7442 5688 10000 7682 5522 5535 7082 22030 10940 9664 7172 7201 3523 8675 31920 13850 6409 8851 6553 9068 5992 6033 6511 17790 11040 8691 3756 6285 19610 10120 56940 8327 4353 11300 6105 25320 8516 4018 25410 13700 5337 15930 6119 23740 8898 9890 22970 5107 11200 7149 7918 28930 7990 9230 6644 5737 30020 7189 6788 27750 9049 10950 4261 8256 2641 7211 18240 11070 6560 8259 22460 14050 41710 20320 29680 12100 81630 41450 5797 25200 7799 7987 8363 59040 23470 14330 4234 3373 69800 9183 28060 3354 4088 6875 18370 2861 3706 8431 13410 8389 15790 6122 22990 5226 4594 2166 12080 7306 8713 33360 10080 38590 11990 13470 8305 2591 6993 13210 7651 6333 28430 11150 3268 12550 18560 5500 7511 19630 23700 8289 36660 10310 5580 29380 140 12350 3846 11900 7554 17030 12420 16460 4739 17260 13090 35580 12400 6931 10920 14610 22340 6261 12930 3332 27360 7209 8696 5406 24460 7895 6297 9010 8600 1957 2240 30880 38220 6683 4228 6123 29540 6404 7996 51500 305 17370 16800 18580 6731 5976 5556 6953 8442 19190 2353 5883 8469 5677 23780 6151 5629 7251 10610 6293 9488 16840 17860 16310 26950 8343 9640 20220 9850 6663 6746 4618 27120 19660 23900 6370 4714 30040 6136 18050 14320 18520 13300 23320 7198 6252 4152 13000 10900 6637 4100 11920 7369 18960 9106 5676 6916 1334 33270 22390 6599 5788 8064 6215 33320 28620 27790 27250 21660 9523 9071 6738 8852 5652 9393 7510 1404 6237 10740 5496 11230 5089 7240 17200 38230 20980 5937 9692 30200 7713 9783 27350 7492 6153 12850 7281 12580 8713 6357 15800
2021-07-15 10950 8212 3578 6346 9920 5617 9330 6766 2318 16620 9714 11020 10530 13600 4366 25250 34170 25210 5126 19080 9950 9579 10800 16520 25140 24550 119800 8277 24540 12630 6396 6613 35940 5768 29590 8468 59340 12010 7255 32010 7875 13350 19380 40330 6682 27500 7465 10020 8943 12760 22130 14190 18410 7349 17370 7887 11710 28630 10030 11380 9068 8597 19610 2006 15100 14680 5279 10330 26500 27140 7101 6015 5244 10660 31650 3327 13500 336 4822 4063 6309 19570 3315 52470 28670 3559 9074 35050 10390 9880 11410 4994 5168 22480 3636 15000 29300 13940 8442 30050 5107 12400 35290 8699 3541 5226 7499 5726 10070 7743 5601 5564 7146 22200 11000 9697 7195 7267 3540 8722 31990 13920 6447 8925 6608 9146 6022 6045 6521 18000 11090 8722 3785 6331 19900 10190 57350 8393 4373 11340 6138 25410 8552 4040 25550 13750 5392 16030 6147 23840 8942 9980 23020 5133 11340 7196 7948 29010 8021 9272 6707 5828 30130 7229 6837 27830 9103 11020 4317 8279 2653 7230 18350 11140 6576 8284 22590 14110 41910 20430 29860 12180 82270 41580 5843 25330 7855 8036 8395 59420 23540 14390 4258 3396 70200 9230 28140 3384 4117 6880 18440 2885 3722 8497 13440 8404 15990 6213 23100 5254 4611 2180 12090 7357 8765 33730 10150 38690 12020 13540 8356 2623 7036 13430 7696 6370 28600 11220 3277 12650 18800 5560 7574 19680 23980 8330 36870 10380 5596 29620 143 12460 3855 11950 7641 17070 12610 16540 4766 17340 13150 35670 12560 6961 10980 14720 22380 6293 12990 3356 27560 7248 8766 5425 24590 7945 6332 9094 8626 1968 2252 31070 38350 6733 4271 6141 29750 6449 8044 51790 306 17460 16830 18760 6757 6013 5585 6997 8495 19360 2387 5896 8502 5726 23900 6177 5666 7300 10650 6335 9518 17120 17980 16380 27100 8371 9730 20350 9910 6721 6773 4654 27290 19860 24030 6420 4747 30460 6155 18130 14360 18540 13380 23470 7279 6282 4208 13070 10950 6691 4136 11940 7413 19000 9146 5750 6938 1341 33400 22540 6637 5828 8087 6248 33590 28750 27880 27430 21770 9608 9110 6770 8888 5676 9437 7548 1413 6287 10800 5533 11330 5130 7269 17290 38450 21120 5979 9736 30450 7738 9827 27440 7569 6191 12920 7320 12650 8797 6398 15920
2021-07-16 11060 8281 3604 6416 9980 5693 9365 6806 2341 16640 9775 11070 10560 13670 4384 25310 34290 25450 5152 19130 10010 9640 10890 16580 25240 24610 120400 8311 24610 12730 6405 6645 36050 5792 29720 8512 59650 12060 7270 32110 7916 13390 19540 40680 6709 27620 7498 10060 9021 12820 22230 14220 18510 7401 17470 7919 11760 28720 10100 11400 9100 8642 19740 2015 15180 14770 5323 10360 26650 27300 7140 6055 5280 10710 32010 3342 13580 337 4852 4109 6326 19730 3344 53010 28860 3580 9118 35180 10460 9960 11450 5020 5198 22560 3664 15090 29520 14020 8466 30170 5132 12530 35420 8746 3565 5265 7556 5757 10140 7803 5671 5587 7201 22370 11060 9737 7224 7332 3557 8768 32070 13990 6485 9006 6660 9220 6054 6058 6530 18200 11140 8754 3814 6377 20180 10260 57690 8457 4394 11380 6167 25500 8586 4061 25690 13810 5448 16140 6175 23940 8988 10070 23080 5158 11470 7237 7978 29080 8048 9314 6776 5910 30250 7269 6883 27910 9153 11080 4368 8299 2664 7249 18470 11210 6593 8306 22700 14160 42080 20530 30030 12250 82860 41690 5890 25460 7911 8082 8426 59770 23620 14460 4282 3414 70560 9275 28210 3415 4143 6885 18510 2908 3737 8563 13470 8416 16170 6295 23200 5283 4628 2193 12090 7405 8818 34100 10210 38780 12050 13610 8404 2655 7079 13620 7742 6406 28780 11290 3284 12760 19030 5615 7625 19720 24260 8370 37070 10430 5613 29830 148 12570 3865 11980 7720 17100 12790 16610 4791 17410 13210 35760 12720 6990 11040 14810 22430 6324 13050 3380 27740 7289 8826 5446 24720 7996 6363 9175 8655 1977 2266 31250 38470 6784 4309 6163 29950 6495 8092 52080 307 17550 16850 18930 6782 6047 5613 7044 8549 19530 2420 5909 8538 5775 24000 6205 5704 7349 10690 6373 9542 17390 18100 16440 27240 8398 9810 20470 9960 6771 6800 4687 27460 20050 24160 6463 4780 30860 6173 18210 14400 18560 13460 23620 7356 6312 4260 13130 11000 6746 4166 11950 7456 19050 9190 5819 6959 1349 33500 22680 6673 5868 8110 6283 33840 28870 27980 27610 21890 9689 9149 6805 8922 5698 9479 7583 1422 6340 10860 5569 11420 5173 7291 17380 38660 21260 6019 9778 30680 7762 9873 27530 7634 6226 12980 7361 12710 8882 6437 16030
2021-07-17 11150 8338 3631 6483 10040 5765 9400 6847 2358 16670 9835 11110 10590 13730 4404 25360 34410 25690 5174 19180 10080 9698 10980 16640 25330 24670 120900 8347 24670 12840 6413 6668 36150 5819 29850 8557 59930 12090 7283 32220 7957 13430 19670 40980 6736 27750 7543 10090 9084 12870 22320 14250 18600 7453 17570 7946 11810 28800 10170 11410 9130 8687 19880 2024 15270 14850 5365 10390 26800 27430 7179 6099 5316 10750 32350 3357 13670 339 4883 4150 6342 19860 3373 53440 29050 3603 9160 35320 10530 10030 11490 5044 5229 22650 3691 15170 29740 14090 8490 30300 5157 12650 35530 8790 3589 5297 7601 5794 10210 7863 5737 5602 7255 22530 11110 9772 7244 7400 3574 8815 32140 14060 6524 9070 6712 9281 6084 6072 6540 18380 11190 8785 3845 6419 20460 10320 57970 8512 4415 11420 6195 25590 8620 4081 25830 13860 5498 16240 6203 24030 9030 10160 23130 5184 11600 7279 8010 29150 8080 9355 6823 5980 30360 7306 6921 27990 9204 11120 4418 8319 2675 7268 18580 11280 6610 8317 22810 14220 42250 20630 30180 12300 83390 41780 5935 25590 7965 8126 8458 60090 23690 14510 4306 3425 70870 9318 28280 3446 4170 6890 18580 2933 3752 8627 13490 8427 16290 6369 23310 5312 4643 2208 12100 7451 8867 34460 10270 38860 12070 13670 8451 2687 7122 13800 7786 6443 28920 11370 3290 12870 19260 5670 7677 19760 24530 8411 37250 10490 5630 30030 151 12670 3874 12020 7791 17130 12980 16670 4814 17460 13260 35850 12870 7019 11100 14900 22460 6356 13110 3405 27920 7327 8870 5464 24830 8047 6392 9256 8681 1985 2278 31400 38560 6833 4347 6181 30120 6540 8140 52370 309 17620 16860 19100 6809 6083 5641 7085 8602 19700 2447 5922 8573 5821 24100 6231 5740 7398 10740 6414 9565 17670 18220 16510 27360 8424 9890 20570 10020 6820 6827 4718 27630 20250 24290 6507 4812 31280 6191 18290 14440 18570 13530 23750 7423 6342 4318 13200 11040 6803 4194 11960 7499 19090 9233 5889 6979 1355 33610 22800 6713 5905 8132 6317 34030 28980 28070 27770 21990 9766 9188 6835 8962 5720 9520 7611 1430 6384 10910 5605 11500 5208 7308 17470 38850 21370 6062 9819 30880 7785 9913 27600 7697 6259 13040 7392 12770 8960 6474 16160
2021-07-18 11260 8410 3659 6557 10100 5850 9436 6887 2376 16690 9908 11160 10620 13790 4423 25420 34500 25940 5196 19240 10140 9752 11080 16700 25410 24730 121500 8383 24740 12950 6422 6694 36270 5843 29980 8603 60240 12140 7297 32320 7998 13460 19820 41280 6761 27870 7589 10130 9161 12910 22410 14280 18710 7514 17670 7978 11860 28880 10250 11420 9159 8731 20010 2033 15350 14930 5408 10410 26940 27590 7218 6143 5351 10800 32710 3372 13760 341 4915 4193 6358 19990 3399 53930 29230 3626 9200 35450 10600 10100 11530 5067 5260 22730 3716 15250 29960 14170 8515 30410 5180 12800 35630 8844 3614 5334 7657 5826 10280 7924 5809 5624 7311 22690 11170 9809 7264 7468 3592 8863 32210 14130 6564 9132 6763 9352 6113 6084 6549 18600 11240 8820 3876 6461 20750 10390 58300 8573 4437 11470 6228 25680 8654 4101 25980 13910 5552 16340 6232 24130 9074 10250 23180 5208 11730 7323 8041 29220 8108 9397 6868 6064 30470 7345 6961 28080 9260 11180 4471 8342 2685 7287 18700 11340 6630 8343 22930 14270 42450 20730 30340 12380 83940 41870 5980 25710 8016 8172 8490 60420 23760 14570 4330 3446 71180 9359 28350 3478 4198 6895 18650 2952 3767 8692 13520 8439 16480 6457 23420 5342 4661 2222 12100 7502 8916 34830 10340 38950 12100 13730 8501 2719 7161 14010 7834 6479 29080 11440 3296 12970 19490 5723 7726 19810 24810 8451 37450 10540 5648 30230 154 12770 3884 12050 7879 17170 13150 16730 4836 17530 13310 35940 13050 7049 11160 15020 22500 6388 13160 3431 28100 7368 8909 5489 24960 8098 6425 9332 8709 1994 2293 31560 38660 6883 4390 6199 30290 6585 8188 52660 310 17710 16880 19280 6835 6118 5670 7130 8655 19880 2475 5936 8609 5868 24220 6256 5779 7446 10780 6451 9589 17940 18330 16570 27480 8450 9970 20690 10070 6863 6855 4750 27800 20450 24410 6552 4847 31690 6207 18370 14480 18590 13610 23890 7498 6373 4368 13280 11090 6855 4225 11970 7543 19130 9277 5953 6999 1363 33710 22930 6748 5944 8154 6355 34280 29100 28160 27940 22110 9841 9226 6863 9000 5743 9566 7647 1439 6435 10970 5640 11590 5248 7328 17550 39030 21510 6097 9860 31100 7808 9955 27670 7768 6295 13090 7428 12840 9037 6511 16280
2021-07-19 11420 8498 3690 6631 10170 5930 9472 6928 2398 16710 9973 11210 10650 13870 4442 25490 34630 26190 5223 19290 10210 9820 11190 16760 25500 24790 122200 8420 24830 13060 6430 6724 36400 5869 30120 8652 60560 12190 7314 32440 8039 13490 20030 41680 6791 28000 7635 10170 9244 12980 22520 14310 18820 7566 17780 8007 11920 28970 10330 11440 9188 8774 20150 2041 15430 15010 5451 10440 27120 27760 7257 6188 5387 10860 33150 3389 13850 343 4946 4241 6372 20140 3426 54610 29430 3650 9244 35590 10680 10180 11570 5098 5292 22820 3744 15330 30220 14250 8539 30540 5206 12970 35770 8931 3639 5376 7721 5862 10350 7987 5898 5649 7372 22850 11230 9843 7292 7537 3609 8910 32280 14190 6603 9215 6814 9432 6143 6099 6558 18840 11290 8852 3905 6509 21050 10460 58760 8643 4460 11510 6259 25760 8687 4121 26120 13960 5608 16450 6260 24230 9120 10350 23240 5235 11860 7372 8069 29300 8140 9438 6937 6152 30590 7389 7010 28170 9312 11260 4521 8361 2696 7306 18810 11420 6647 8371 23040 14330 42680 20830 30530 12490 84600 42000 6026 25850 8071 8221 8522 60790 23840 14650 4354 3471 71580 9404 28430 3510 4228 6900 18720 2969 3782 8757 13550 8449 16680 6564 23520 5372 4680 2237 12110 7554 8969 35190 10410 39060 12130 13800 8551 2751 7204 14220 7880 6515 29270 11510 3302 13080 19750 5781 7788 19860 25100 8492 37670 10610 5666 30460 157 12890 3893 12110 7985 17220 13350 16790 4859 17600 13370 36020 13220 7079 11220 15130 22530 6420 13220 3457 28310 7410 8979 5516 25100 8150 6459 9415 8740 2004 2308 31750 38810 6937 4430 6219 30490 6631 8237 52960 312 17800 16900 19470 6862 6154 5701 7178 8712 20050 2506 5952 8651 5920 24380 6284 5819 7496 10830 6492 9619 18220 18450 16640 27630 8477 10050 20830 10130 6921 6883 4784 27980 20670 24550 6609 4890 32110 6230 18460 14530 18610 13690 24050 7593 6405 4424 13360 11140 6911 4265 11980 7586 19180 9324 6024 7019 1371 33850 23090 6787 5983 8178 6395 34590 29220 28260 28120 22230 9919 9265 6893 9039 5765 9614 7685 1448 6493 11040 5676 11680 5297 7355 17650 39260 21640 6140 9902 31370 7835 10000 27760 7840 6333 13150 7465 12900 9126 6554 16400

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.