COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-07-19

	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	2021-06-21	12-27	2021-07-08	--	--	2021-06-23	2021-03-25	--	07-21	2021-03-25	2021-07-07	--	12-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	12-23	--	--	12-23	2021-07-08	--	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	--	12-22	12-29	--	12-27	--	12-07	--	2021-05-10	11-14	2021-01-01	2021-07-08	--	2021-07-08	12-27	12-27	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	12-25	2021-07-08	--	2021-07-08	--	12-30	2021-07-06	2021-07-05	--	2021-06-22	12-27	2021-07-07	2021-06-20	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	12-22	2021-05-30	10-28	12-30	12-22	--	12-25	--	2021-07-08	--	--	--	2021-07-08	2021-06-21	2021-01-04	2021-07-07	2021-01-05	2021-07-06	--	2021-07-07	--	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	--	12-21	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-01-02	--	12-21	2021-07-07	12-27	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	12-22	2021-06-21	2021-07-07	07-21	2021-07-08	--	2021-06-21	12-24	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-06-13	2021-07-08	2021-06-20	--	2021-07-06	12-30	12-28	--	2021-07-02	2021-07-07	12-25	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	--	--	2021-06-24	12-23	12-27	12-22	2021-06-20	2021-07-06	12-25	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-07	--	10-04	--	--	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	12-27	12-21	2021-06-26	2021-07-07	12-27	--	2021-07-07	--	12-21	2021-07-06	--	12-28	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-08	12-27	12-13	12-29	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-06-20	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-08	12-26	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	12-21	2021-07-08	12-21	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	12-28	--	2021-07-07	--	12-22	2021-07-07	12-27	2021-07-08	--	2021-07-08	2021-01-03	12-21	2021-07-08	--	2021-07-07	12-22	12-26	2021-07-08	12-22	12-21	--	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	12-22	--	--	12-08	2021-07-08	--	12-21	12-22	12-21	2021-03-25	2021-07-07	2021-06-27	2021-07-07	12-27	2021-07-08	2021-07-04	2021-03-18	--	--	2021-07-05	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	07-21	--	--	--	12-26	12-21	10-04	--	2021-07-06	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	--	12-27	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	--	2021-06-29	2021-06-22	2021-07-07	2021-06-07	2021-06-22	2021-01-06	--	2021-01-01	2021-07-06	2021-01-04	2021-07-07	12-21	--	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	10-04	2021-07-06	12-27	12-21	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	12-13	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	--	12-23	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	--	12-22	--	07-21	2021-07-08	12-25	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	12-29	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	--	--	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	--	10-04	12-21	12-22	2021-07-06	--	--	12-27	2021-07-05	12-21	12-14	2021-07-07	12-27	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-06-20	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	--	--	2021-07-06	--	2021-06-21	12-21	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	12-22	--	2021-07-06	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	12-22	2021-07-07	2021-06-21	--	--	2021-07-08	12-27	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-06-21	2021-07-07	--	--	10-04	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-06-26	--	12-28	2021-07-07	--	--	12-22	12-22	2021-07-07	12-27	12-22	12-27	--	12-28	2021-07-05	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-08	11-02
Peak daily increment	132	102	65			80	77		115	106	147		176	115	66	115	589			326	180		236	119		426	1249		157		95		208	49	484	122		116	107	524	81	60	254	661	107	294		80		122	178	34		59	256	81	58	104	133	24	143	107	27	41	91	268		197		278				127	427	19	161	5	67		60			635	400		120	267	139		189	58	94	246		170	474	187	48	317	119	172	207	296	54		73	76	147	99	109	80	63		86	163	146		20	92	593	125	67			78	90	74	94	231	61	125	67		292		631			72	142	451	119	23	246	218		180		401	71		338	80		45	120	476	101	95	78	85	222		97	452	135	70	74	73	18	100	211	148		79		198	298	311	337		785	284	104	250		66	100	727	132	200	90		490	94	419			105	142		62	153	186	26	322	96	207	79	24	34	23			394		168	40	123	186				105	50	389		42		239	84		277	357	87	311	158	35		4	123	26	43	111	154		203	49	102	96	623		67	132	150	63	52	188	69	221	138	71	53		92	59		99	23	26	308	289		83	67	206		131		24	194	244	300	53	42	57	82				45	83		460	94	79	85			102	311	248	293	283	131	141	160	100	92	60	40		402	272	82		459	64	161	143	51	182		84	69			139		37	138	89	118	138		34		259	189	90	75	22			224	449	348	218	144	85	77	102	26	115			79	108	53	99		115	155			83	148	255	106	138	377		115	67	84	133		89	573
Days since peak	28	204	11			26	116		363	116	12		224	12	13	11	208			208	11		13	11		209	202		204		224		70	247	199	11		11	204	204	11	11	12	12	206	11		11		201	13	14		27	204	12	29	12	11	14	12	209	50	264	201	209		206		11				11	28	196	12	195	13		12			12	12		12	12	12		210	13	13	198		210	12	204	11	12	209	28	12	363	11		28	207	12	12	36	11	29		13	201	203		17	12	206	11	11			25	208	204	209	29	13	206	12		12		288			11	12	204	210	23	12	204		12		210	13		203	12		11	204	218	202	11	13	29	12		11	205	12	13	210	11	210	12	11	203		12		209	12	204	11		11	197	210	11		12	209	205	11	209	210		11	12	209			223	11		210	209	210	116	12	22	12	204	11	15	123			14		12	11	12	363				205	210	288		13		12	13		204	13	12	12	11	13		20	27	12	42	27	194		199	13	196	12	210		11	11	288	13	204	210	13	12	218	12	11		12	12		12	12	11	11	13		208	12	12		209		363	11	206	11	11	202	12	11				12	11		288	210	209	13			204	14	210	217	12	204	12	12	13	12	13	29		12	13	12		12	12	12	12	13	12		13	11			13		28	210	11	13	209		13		12	12	209	12	28			11	204	11	12	11	12	12	12	28	12			288	12	13	23		203	12			209	209	12	204	209	204		203	14	11	12		11	259
Last total	11072	8358	3898	6973	10520	5639	9929	7278	2390	17156	10499	11574	10913	14144	4712	25755	35762	26517	5418	20019	10783	10470	11909	17135	27418	25653	124838	8745	24984	13526	6451	6981	37078	5993	31378	9105	61951	12592	7431	32992	8254	13681	20559	43335	7054	29026	8036	10486	9398	13172	22989	14325	19246	7646	18284	8323	11937	29041	10609	11511	9660	9001	20898	2075	15771	15651	5598	10823	27866	28387	7645	6407	5652	11370	31919	3390	14237	358	5213	4728	6602	21516	3535	54892	30587	3887	9627	36362	11020	10620	11981	5286	5632	23328	3913	15565	31516	14828	8677	31727	5296	12392	36414	8744	3776	5766	7570	6049	10759	8141	5688	5961	7212	23992	11383	10245	7556	7750	3654	9189	32862	14472	6773	9457	7041	9270	6390	6286	6744	18279	11417	9091	4100	6779	20775	10794	57881	8896	4748	11693	6832	26387	8976	4134	26667	14203	5849	16887	6525	24686	9264	10542	23945	5548	11985	7381	8365	29938	8527	9768	6964	5992	31215	7696	7287	28567	9642	11222	4340	8632	2694	7619	19353	11605	7023	8719	24118	14677	43403	20946	31477	12780	85378	42794	6096	26485	8284	8340	8854	60768	24107	15104	4499	3678	72238	9636	29130	3595	4581	6978	19158	3149	3957	9057	13775	8726	17407	6285	24104	5564	4737	2276	12216	7931	9456	35199	10730	39533	12230	14291	8384	3115	7621	14507	8173	6594	29048	11753	3512	13721	19607	5931	8052	20486	25353	8763	38205	11166	5783	30836	141	12738	3986	12228	7742	17624	14511	17530	5015	17920	13655	36347	14142	7313	11604	14883	22695	6461	13865	3640	28459	7679	9048	5695	25755	8397	6602	9638	8951	2090	2391	32381	39941	7286	4356	6519	30459	6830	8587	54513	340	18477	17227	20199	6994	6127	5840	7400	8802	21532	2647	6156	8890	6091	24259	6533	6051	7704	11225	7030	10028	17877	19137	17320	28415	8775	10362	20988	10406	7136	7082	4711	28541	21642	25163	6832	5183	32179	6477	18949	14932	18854	14305	24591	7610	6631	4587	13915	11627	7219	4332	12153	7855	19614	9764	6543	7083	1526	34587	23357	6992	6196	8233	6677	35257	29872	28778	29280	22834	10250	9521	7173	9377	5871	9973	8070	1532	6320	11255	5776	11503	5483	7699	18038	40396	22899	6298	10246	31370	8088	10436	28549	8084	6589	13224	7720	13314	9415	6827	16523
Last daily increment	62	61	46	89	125	38	130	124	33	127	135	141	61	101	41	89	281	277	68	141	113	142	154	115	465	196	856	89	106	159	12	50	240	45	237	104	549	90	27	243	50	65	218	483	64	237	103	101	105	98	156	41	173	62	180	69	61	80	95	23	83	104	243	17	125	141	72	104	269	248	91	87	78	92	203	15	130	9	57	100	64	301	39	563	316	47	96	252	91	164	81	53	67	165	57	168	362	139	42	266	49	73	261	49	32	84	29	58	124	67	38	62	32	362	88	93	56	91	30	78	187	108	67	95	91	63	55	39	61	124	77	45	64	83	227	93	245	109	59	73	97	190	81	16	204	91	91	146	69	156	71	106	165	83	145	35	91	193	88	80	61	59	205	70	63	149	118	56	39	54	14	90	157	89	70	50	264	99	335	114	278	117	769	233	54	201	66	61	105	323	121	98	42	40	442	88	197	55	76	21	111	38	48	97	108	86	283	55	152	61	24	26	16	82	133	329	98	158	39	208	31	85	86	234	103	52	172	114	44	162	194	60	79	149	322	84	306	117	43	239	2	85	20	61	48	97	280	194	36	135	113	161	256	68	69	62	49	35	165	47	241	64	62	42	203	66	48	110	48	22	33	282	269	85	28	57	212	75	93	451	4	171	64	208	52	41	43	61	59	360	55	48	59	82	99	75	69	59	100	103	87	214	204	167	225	63	115	152	89	91	49	29	256	333	175	62	75	367	47	148	77	39	184	231	73	57	100	150	126	78	34	45	75	122	99	136	28	43	189	188	77	71	22	61	391	200	156	332	167	130	73	60	84	50	93	83	22	28	74	60	64	58	72	172	325	276	67	75	226	63	130	188	92	75	66	66	133	114	51	131
Last week	395	292	335	724	686	211	640	560	127	548	841	651	410	653	353	594	1743	1685	328	927	908	927	1222	679	2358	1190	5750	499	578	1036	62	396	1324	272	1884	680	3114	635	197	1188	442	331	1442	3556	422	1614	621	500	599	515	999	180	1018	414	1078	470	362	534	694	152	597	484	1484	77	798	1052	372	527	1655	1516	545	460	458	763	1309	98	874	28	366	696	304	2069	267	3568	2140	346	618	1488	733	865	596	327	454	962	312	707	2480	1000	273	1716	221	361	1289	175	262	553	219	374	778	495	255	417	214	1987	479	588	379	575	152	529	969	669	372	661	516	313	400	260	223	816	380	401	329	493	1429	748	1435	597	362	426	700	1084	463	113	1392	544	548	969	394	1009	397	739	962	442	886	287	436	1033	512	548	387	357	1247	513	500	843	650	349	151	374	55	390	1153	571	448	433	1673	635	1868	705	1892	751	4357	1375	312	1310	507	369	498	2087	703	787	271	296	2762	494	1103	252	469	98	782	267	263	632	371	338	1686	297	1152	333	136	119	115	616	754	2121	677	1008	219	842	137	489	600	1434	543	282	809	622	236	1191	1295	444	599	854	1880	486	1762	865	201	1603	6	557	135	361	290	597	2115	1029	233	687	582	826	1801	390	669	366	321	224	948	310	1296	482	370	285	1316	514	330	690	365	135	147	1639	1657	612	176	387	1129	448	625	3051	32	1123	406	1654	273	196	301	470	396	2325	312	268	434	442	591	392	449	479	643	684	512	1326	1321	988	1549	440	767	912	564	479	343	136	1552	2087	1289	464	482	2431	340	921	616	281	1024	1379	431	382	485	925	729	562	266	238	513	638	666	852	141	179	1391	1131	421	434	172	480	2212	1261	1032	2026	1222	761	469	415	549	241	603	580	130	166	578	302	402	419	453	919	2301	1911	393	555	1401	386	652	1156	607	431	348	449	774	743	459	840
Previous peak date	07-21	07-21	12-27	12-27	12-26	07-21	12-21	12-26	--	12-21	12-21	12-27	--	12-21	12-23	12-28	--	10-19	12-27	--	2021-01-02	2021-01-11	11-02	12-21	10-07	--	11-02	12-27	10-13	10-12	--	2021-01-07	10-12	--	11-02	12-21	10-25	12-22	--	--	12-14	12-06	12-28	11-02	--	12-21	12-27	12-22	2021-01-04	09-27	10-27	12-07	10-27	12-21	10-01	12-26	12-08	12-06	12-27	12-08	12-21	10-10	12-21	--	11-02	--	12-28	10-27	12-22	12-21	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-30	07-21	07-21	12-26	--	12-29	12-27	12-27	12-27	12-21	11-02	12-27	12-26	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-27	--	12-21	12-28	10-27	2021-01-13	10-01	10-14	10-12	12-07	12-26	07-21	07-21	12-27	--	12-24	12-29	07-21	10-27	12-21	11-09	07-21	12-26	07-21	10-31	12-27	10-29	--	12-21	12-26	12-22	--	12-21	12-22	2021-01-04	--	07-21	--	--	--	07-21	12-25	--	12-25	10-15	10-29	12-26	07-21	12-22	12-28	12-21	12-21	--	--	2021-01-05	12-22	09-28	12-27	12-21	12-22	10-12	12-28	12-27	10-28	12-21	12-27	12-13	10-29	--	--	12-22	12-29	07-21	12-28	2021-01-04	12-22	--	12-21	2021-01-01	07-21	12-28	06-11	12-27	12-22	--	12-28	12-25	11-02	10-13	10-27	09-29	12-29	12-31	11-02	11-02	--	12-27	12-27	11-02	10-11	09-28	12-27	--	--	12-31	11-02	2021-01-02	--	--	12-30	--	12-21	12-28	--	--	10-12	12-21	12-31	07-21	12-22	--	12-06	07-21	12-07	12-27	12-27	11-02	11-01	12-27	12-06	12-27	--	12-13	10-14	10-26	--	--	07-21	11-05	12-21	12-29	11-04	12-21	2021-01-04	08-02	12-21	2021-01-01	11-02	12-29	11-02	10-25	--	12-27	12-28	12-26	07-21	--	2021-01-06	11-02	12-06	11-02	12-29	--	12-31	2021-01-05	12-22	07-21	12-06	10-11	10-10	12-27	10-19	--	10-11	12-13	10-19	12-30	12-28	10-11	12-25	2021-01-26	2021-01-02	11-02	12-29	10-31	07-21	12-21	12-28	12-28	--	11-02	--	12-30	--	12-25	12-21	07-21	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-27	12-27	2021-01-04	12-22	12-27	07-21	--	--	12-20	2021-01-03	12-28	10-24	12-22	--	--	12-28	--	12-21	12-25	12-25	10-27	12-22	07-21	12-29	12-27	11-01	12-21	12-22	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-02	12-25	10-19	2021-01-02	12-26	2021-01-04	12-31	12-27	12-22	12-26	--	12-21	12-22	--	2021-01-03	12-06	--	12-21	12-27	--	12-26	12-08	12-22	10-26	12-27	--	12-15	12-25	11-02	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-26	12-21	--	07-21	11-02	12-07	07-21	12-26	--	12-22	10-19	12-29	--	10-22	12-28	10-30	10-11	--	12-30	--	12-25	12-31	12-21	12-31	12-26	--
Previous peak daily increment	605	366	61	107	100	285	134	82		260	170	116		178	78	477		190	63		128	109	277	233	271		1200	68	166	106		60	233		355	142	457	228			155	233	307	1167		508	96	186	64	72	160	211	139	99	54	87	148	354	172	194	175	60	303		292		58	35	249	283	68	88	78	65	1221	82	243		35	52	94	334	37	551	288	37	181	598	151	77		72	58	164	25	206	248	59	118	322	216	684	536		60	52	370	25	160	106	184	51	226	213	102	24		117	56	146		273	97	75		457				661	150		54	47	127	82	1697	91	56	180	92			34	377	70	68	201	56	60	172	119	57	103	120	136	38			159	52	139	442	59	115		143	83	239	134	44	237	275		70	100	282	46	349	153	428	107	1522	469		457	83	229	70	480	274			36	2166	92			46		298	36			109	105	213	296	361		62	65	191	105	68	2512	86	723	190	212		26	53	137			969	104	58	122	106	41	60	68	158	121	1362	90	68	276		125	44	108	227		120	347	43	156	174		105	81	176	445	286	41	46	39	194		65	96	209	80	85	70	174	36	25	417	448	80	147	82	407	71		557		209		167	97	218	110	102	69	206	29	42	86	52	839			108	92	66	75	115			451		156	222	94	55	112	144	203	138	197	67	43	206	105	331	189	270	181	183	56	109	53	143	349	86	44		123	360		58	101		559	151		110	120	84	257	329		390	227	260	138	117	160	65	154	95		296	165	42	369	68		217	342	264		35	431	22	25		111		176	95	173	76	69
Low between peaks	0	-1	-3			0	8			13	-11			-17	-8	3					-13		-14	-12			307		55				17		31	-8		-4			-11	1	-1	-18		-8		-16		34	3	0		2	26	-6	-64	5	-9	2	-2	25	-1		29			-43		-14				4	-11	-4	-9		1		1			-13	-19		-8	-4	-11			-7	0	53		34	1	-64	-14	-4	-2	-3	-6		-3		-3	-35	-12	-2	-5	2	-1		1	-10			0	-4		-12	1			-4				-5	1		-5		-7		-7			-2	-8			1	-27	22		-5		15	-2		-4	2		-8	18			-1	2	-1	-27		-1		-5	3	-2	-7	0	-5	-5			-3		18	27	20	2		40	120		-18		-9	21	58	7				27	1					2				39	6	5	-15	0		0	0	7			15		4	2	8							-7		-6		5	1		7	-7	-4	6	-5	1			1	1	3	1			37	0	38	-8			-51	-13	-2	1	-20	-118	0	3		1	-6		-2	0		-14	-6	-8	2	-1		-4	-20	-45					-28		-3	-10	-2	-3	-4				3	-5		-7			-1			24	2			-16		-6	-39	-13	-2	1	-1		4	-5	-7		1	-4	-13	-40	3	-9		-8	-5			-3		-4		2	-6			1		5	0		-3	1			-9		-4	-6	-4	4	-12	-13	-5	1			-2	1	-4	-2			7				-19	-68	-18	-8				2	1	0		-6

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-20 to 2021-07-26

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-07-19	11072	8358	3898	6973	10520	5639	9929	7278	2390	17156	10499	11574	10913	14144	4712	25755	35762	26517	5418	20019	10783	10470	11909	17135	27418	25653	124838	8745	24984	13526	6451	6981	37078	5993	31378	9105	61951	12592	7431	32992	8254	13681	20559	43335	7054	29026	8036	10486	9398	13172	22989	14325	19246	7646	18284	8323	11937	29041	10609	11511	9660	9001	20898	2075	15771	15651	5598	10823	27866	28387	7645	6407	5652	11370	31919	3390	14237	358	5213	4728	6602	21516	3535	54892	30587	3887	9627	36362	11020	10620	11981	5286	5632	23328	3913	15565	31516	14828	8677	31727	5296	12392	36414	8744	3776	5766	7570	6049	10759	8141	5688	5961	7212	23992	11383	10245	7556	7750	3654	9189	32862	14472	6773	9457	7041	9270	6390	6286	6744	18279	11417	9091	4100	6779	20775	10794	57881	8896	4748	11693	6832	26387	8976	4134	26667	14203	5849	16887	6525	24686	9264	10542	23945	5548	11985	7381	8365	29938	8527	9768	6964	5992	31215	7696	7287	28567	9642	11222	4340	8632	2694	7619	19353	11605	7023	8719	24118	14677	43403	20946	31477	12780	85378	42794	6096	26485	8284	8340	8854	60768	24107	15104	4499	3678	72238	9636	29130	3595	4581	6978	19158	3149	3957	9057	13775	8726	17407	6285	24104	5564	4737	2276	12216	7931	9456	35199	10730	39533	12230	14291	8384	3115	7621	14507	8173	6594	29048	11753	3512	13721	19607	5931	8052	20486	25353	8763	38205	11166	5783	30836	141	12738	3986	12228	7742	17624	14511	17530	5015	17920	13655	36347	14142	7313	11604	14883	22695	6461	13865	3640	28459	7679	9048	5695	25755	8397	6602	9638	8951	2090	2391	32381	39941	7286	4356	6519	30459	6830	8587	54513	340	18477	17227	20199	6994	6127	5840	7400	8802	21532	2647	6156	8890	6091	24259	6533	6051	7704	11225	7030	10028	17877	19137	17320	28415	8775	10362	20988	10406	7136	7082	4711	28541	21642	25163	6832	5183	32179	6477	18949	14932	18854	14305	24591	7610	6631	4587	13915	11627	7219	4332	12153	7855	19614	9764	6543	7083	1526	34587	23357	6992	6196	8233	6677	35257	29872	28778	29280	22834	10250	9521	7173	9377	5871	9973	8070	1532	6320	11255	5776	11503	5483	7699	18038	40396	22899	6298	10246	31370	8088	10436	28549	8084	6589	13224	7720	13314	9415	6827	16523
2021-07-20	11110	8512	3898	7069	10670	5676	10040	7385	2410	17250	10580	11730	11000	14250	4767	25840	36040	26890	5500	20170	10780	10520	11950	17250	27840	25850	125600	8857	25040	13700	6461	7033	37310	6050	31690	9246	62470	12700	7461	33200	8292	13730	20660	44040	7116	29270	8193	10550	9530	13190	23180	14360	19400	7702	18450	8390	11970	29120	10720	11530	9740	9079	21150	2088	15850	15810	5663	10910	28240	28670	7750	6492	5737	11490	32120	3404	14380	361	5277	4782	6658	21810	3581	55190	31020	3946	9720	36620	11130	10860	12080	5339	5696	23490	3913	15670	31870	15000	8713	32020	5327	12450	36610	8774	3812	5795	7611	6125	10890	8221	5740	6030	7255	24520	11400	10360	7631	7869	3674	9270	33020	14600	6838	9560	7041	9330	6458	6337	6794	18680	11470	9135	4109	6876	21060	10840	58040	9027	4828	11750	6871	26570	9053	4153	26950	14280	5950	17040	6593	24850	9320	10630	24110	5548	12210	7393	8436	30110	8614	9880	7026	6110	31430	7810	7393	28720	9750	11310	4377	8632	2705	7682	19530	11680	7094	8822	24390	14780	43600	21050	31760	12820	85670	43030	6143	26710	8334	8392	8939	61110	24210	15240	4541	3679	72550	9720	29310	3656	4595	6994	19280	3193	4001	9072	13860	8798	17590	6334	24300	5617	4757	2304	12230	8025	9600	35530	10850	39690	12260	14430	8408	3209	7745	14510	8253	6636	29320	11880	3552	13770	19810	6000	8103	20630	25700	8845	38210	11260	5817	31030	141	12830	4002	12280	7801	17730	14660	17690	5058	18020	13740	36450	14170	7370	11670	14950	22760	6496	14010	3683	28600	7764	9135	5753	26010	8477	6638	9790	9008	2110	2414	32700	40250	7382	4389	6583	30600	6908	8682	55120	343	18680	17290	20500	7048	6158	5890	7475	8868	21950	2703	6204	8951	6198	24440	6596	6124	7780	11360	7067	10110	18200	19370	17480	28660	8841	10500	21060	10500	7245	7139	4738	28870	21640	25360	6908	5218	32560	6532	19110	15060	18900	14470	24900	7699	6678	4747	14050	11770	7320	4368	12190	7936	19730	9890	6802	7108	1558	34800	23490	7060	6196	8257	6746	35950	30080	28950	29630	23030	10310	9600	7247	9464	5901	10090	8155	1554	6349	11260	5816	11560	5558	7788	18210	40780	23240	6356	10330	31600	8149	10550	28770	8213	6658	13300	7785	13440	9560	6908	16650
2021-07-21	11190	8604	3962	7154	10860	5721	10150	7486	2433	17340	10670	11850	11080	14360	4839	25900	36340	27320	5575	20330	10980	10690	12150	17360	28230	26060	126500	8987	25140	13900	6469	7108	37540	6106	32000	9366	63160	12820	7493	33390	8312	13790	20840	44610	7181	29570	8346	10590	9690	13240	23350	14390	19530	7748	18630	8466	12040	29180	10870	11540	9820	9147	21430	2100	15880	15990	5733	11000	28570	28960	7856	6580	5816	11630	32380	3423	14530	361	5353	4890	6711	22200	3646	55680	31400	3996	9810	36900	11270	11110	12190	5403	5761	23680	3964	15670	32230	15150	8734	32300	5334	12540	36820	8817	3851	5896	7678	6195	11030	8303	5881	6107	7352	24940	11450	10460	7697	8001	3680	9358	33170	14720	6910	9640	7131	9441	6518	6379	6845	18990	11500	9185	4164	6969	21320	10940	58310	9138	4887	11790	6988	26760	9132	4181	27190	14310	6058	17220	6663	25040	9354	10740	24270	5625	12430	7418	8500	30290	8711	9970	7090	6210	31660	7903	7481	28890	9860	11390	4457	8645	2722	7734	19750	11700	7170	8902	24710	14870	43890	21130	32080	12910	86210	43250	6201	26970	8359	8423	9016	61500	24290	15370	4585	3737	72970	9810	29490	3738	4665	7010	19430	3244	4046	9130	13940	8864	17660	6394	24540	5663	4769	2330	12240	8129	9770	35850	10970	39870	12270	14570	8439	3313	7849	14740	8345	6664	29510	12030	3597	13980	19990	6097	8194	20770	26080	8943	38270	11350	5851	31180	145	12970	4017	12320	7915	17820	14880	17850	5107	18130	13830	36450	14410	7424	11760	15080	22820	6525	14180	3718	28790	7833	9206	5799	26240	8570	6652	9960	9075	2131	2436	33010	40550	7495	4453	6639	30790	6986	8784	55700	343	18880	17350	20830	7103	6201	5953	7563	8935	22380	2763	6252	9023	6314	24610	6654	6207	7874	11520	7180	10190	18470	19580	17670	28930	8919	10670	21180	10610	7332	7207	4789	29220	21960	25540	6979	5284	32890	6596	19300	15180	18950	14640	25230	7802	6720	4868	14220	11890	7425	4396	12230	8030	19860	10000	6925	7143	1591	35050	23670	7120	6283	8268	6830	36530	30300	29120	29970	23240	10310	9680	7311	9560	5901	10180	8229	1576	6384	11280	5850	11630	5648	7858	18360	41160	23550	6403	10430	31840	8215	10650	28970	8330	6729	13390	7845	13570	9700	6988	16750
2021-07-22	11250	8679	4022	7245	11030	5760	10250	7588	2453	17420	10790	11980	11160	14470	4903	25970	36620	27710	5640	20490	11160	10870	12360	17490	28610	26260	127500	9110	25230	14080	6478	7182	37780	6155	32330	9489	63810	12940	7524	33580	8343	13830	21040	45260	7241	29840	8502	10640	9840	13330	23510	14420	19670	7797	18810	8546	12100	29250	10990	11570	9900	9217	21700	2112	15930	16160	5805	11080	28900	29240	7961	6659	5895	11780	32610	3439	14680	361	5422	4997	6770	22640	3707	56200	31830	4049	9900	37170	11400	11350	12290	5461	5824	23840	4014	15710	32550	15340	8762	32650	5351	12620	37030	8853	3888	5998	7732	6272	11160	8384	5978	6179	7423	25350	11510	10560	7769	8126	3693	9441	33320	14840	6976	9720	7219	9526	6597	6423	6894	19210	11540	9244	4225	7059	21590	11020	58530	9247	4954	11840	7119	26950	9208	4204	27430	14360	6160	17380	6731	25210	9397	10870	24430	5699	12640	7462	8565	30460	8802	10060	7152	6292	31880	8033	7562	29070	9970	11470	4515	8673	2736	7789	19940	11750	7243	8983	24990	14970	44210	21220	32390	13020	86860	43500	6254	27210	8391	8462	9095	61870	24370	15500	4627	3803	73390	9900	29660	3811	4749	7025	19570	3283	4089	9197	14010	8930	17770	6448	24750	5711	4785	2355	12250	8227	9920	36160	11090	40030	12290	14710	8467	3415	7962	15000	8438	6697	29660	12170	3630	14230	20180	6168	8276	20910	26420	9032	38370	11440	5885	31360	148	13090	4032	12360	8002	17940	15140	18030	5152	18250	13920	36470	14640	7479	11860	15170	22870	6557	14340	3755	29000	7914	9282	5852	26490	8657	6676	10130	9137	2151	2458	33310	40840	7598	4501	6703	30970	7063	8883	56290	343	19080	17420	21120	7155	6237	6009	7644	9002	22810	2820	6303	9090	6427	24730	6713	6285	7961	11660	7302	10280	18700	19810	17840	29180	8991	10820	21310	10700	7426	7269	4828	29560	22310	25720	7056	5370	33240	6656	19470	15300	19000	14800	25570	7885	6764	4988	14430	12030	7527	4427	12270	8119	19980	10110	7077	7174	1621	35280	23850	7196	6363	8285	6908	37080	30510	29290	30330	23450	10330	9760	7379	9651	5903	10290	8308	1596	6416	11310	5889	11690	5725	7935	18520	41600	23890	6454	10520	32120	8278	10750	29210	8461	6799	13460	7908	13700	9840	7077	16860
2021-07-23	11300	8730	4078	7338	11180	5795	10350	7688	2472	17510	10890	12100	11230	14570	4962	26040	36900	28090	5697	20630	11320	11040	12550	17600	28970	26450	128400	9224	25310	14260	6487	7256	37990	6199	32630	9606	64350	13050	7554	33790	8378	13880	21240	45870	7303	30090	8625	10700	9970	13390	23650	14440	19810	7847	18980	8622	12150	29320	11110	11610	9980	9289	21950	2124	16000	16330	5864	11160	29180	29480	8064	6732	5970	11900	32810	3453	14830	361	5487	5083	6820	23020	3761	56650	32210	4100	9980	37420	11520	11570	12380	5515	5887	24010	4064	15780	32870	15520	8793	32920	5372	12680	37260	8884	3925	6075	7777	6325	11290	8462	6053	6240	7480	25780	11570	10650	7820	8245	3708	9521	33470	14940	7038	9820	7302	9597	6673	6462	6940	19370	11580	9293	4283	7141	21820	11110	58720	9352	5031	11890	7226	27130	9281	4225	27650	14410	6255	17540	6798	25380	9445	10990	24590	5771	12840	7506	8631	30620	8890	10160	7213	6358	32090	8127	7650	29220	10060	11530	4561	8698	2749	7844	20130	11800	7314	9056	25270	15060	44490	21320	32680	13130	87420	43730	6303	27430	8427	8505	9175	62220	24470	15620	4669	3857	73750	9980	29830	3878	4820	7039	19700	3321	4131	9258	14090	8993	17910	6495	24950	5760	4802	2377	12260	8321	10050	36470	11200	40190	12310	14850	8492	3511	8075	15200	8537	6733	29810	12300	3667	14420	20380	6241	8343	21050	26700	9116	38500	11530	5917	31540	151	13190	4047	12410	8073	18010	15410	18210	5195	18360	14020	36530	14870	7534	11950	15250	22930	6589	14510	3793	29190	7989	9338	5903	26740	8739	6704	10290	9195	2170	2480	33520	41080	7696	4541	6764	31120	7140	8978	56790	343	19270	17490	21390	7199	6270	6061	7721	9067	23230	2874	6347	9155	6533	24820	6771	6359	8042	11800	7404	10370	18920	20020	18010	29430	9059	10960	21440	10800	7500	7327	4860	29890	22640	25910	7137	5454	33600	6712	19630	15400	19050	14960	25860	7950	6809	5103	14610	12150	7623	4460	12310	8202	20090	10230	7311	7201	1649	35500	24020	7269	6439	8305	6982	37360	30720	29450	30660	23650	10380	9830	7433	9739	5920	10390	8389	1616	6444	11350	5928	11740	5798	8007	18660	41920	24260	6506	10610	32330	8339	10860	29400	8581	6868	13510	7970	13820	9980	7157	16970
2021-07-24	11350	8770	4133	7433	11340	5830	10450	7791	2490	17600	10970	12180	11290	14680	5020	26110	37170	28460	5730	20760	11490	11160	12680	17700	29320	26640	129100	9338	25370	14440	6496	7329	38160	6232	32900	9713	64780	13160	7583	33970	8415	13920	21440	46340	7362	30350	8742	10760	10110	13440	23770	14470	19960	7899	19150	8687	12190	29390	11230	11620	10050	9360	22200	2136	16070	16490	5905	11250	29430	29690	8168	6803	6043	12000	33000	3468	14970	361	5551	5145	6864	23400	3824	56980	32500	4151	10070	37670	11640	11800	12480	5568	5950	24140	4114	15840	33160	15640	8824	33150	5394	12740	37440	8914	3961	6142	7820	6374	11420	8540	6122	6299	7534	26050	11630	10730	7870	8365	3724	9601	33620	15020	7101	9890	7385	9666	6731	6502	6986	19510	11630	9327	4327	7223	21990	11190	58900	9446	5089	11940	7326	27300	9354	4246	27830	14470	6347	17690	6865	25540	9493	11110	24740	5843	13040	7533	8697	30780	8977	10240	7274	6398	32300	8231	7719	29350	10150	11570	4605	8724	2761	7900	20320	11860	7384	9109	25490	15160	44700	21410	32980	13200	88010	43910	6336	27660	8462	8548	9255	62510	24560	15730	4710	3898	74100	10060	30000	3944	4877	7054	19820	3350	4173	9300	14160	9057	18060	6542	25150	5810	4819	2400	12280	8414	10180	36780	11310	40350	12330	14980	8516	3607	8173	15350	8611	6770	29930	12430	3700	14590	20570	6291	8447	21180	26910	9199	38610	11620	5950	31730	153	13290	4063	12460	8139	18090	15620	18340	5238	18440	14100	36600	15100	7590	12020	15330	22970	6621	14640	3830	29320	8050	9377	5939	26980	8822	6734	10450	9253	2188	2502	33740	41310	7792	4578	6822	31250	7217	9073	57200	344	19430	17550	21600	7241	6302	6112	7797	9132	23670	2927	6389	9219	6641	24910	6830	6433	8122	11920	7502	10440	19100	20200	18170	29680	9128	11100	21540	10890	7569	7384	4891	30220	22890	26090	7196	5528	33960	6767	19790	15490	19090	15120	26120	8010	6855	5198	14780	12260	7711	4494	12340	8285	20200	10330	7360	7227	1678	35710	24170	7334	6515	8325	7055	37750	30890	29620	30940	23810	10430	9900	7486	9826	5938	10480	8471	1635	6471	11390	5969	11800	5897	8070	18780	42200	24500	6559	10700	32490	8399	10960	29570	8730	6931	13570	8033	13940	10120	7226	17090
2021-07-25	11390	8800	4187	7530	11500	5863	10550	7895	2507	17690	11060	12260	11330	14780	5076	26190	37450	28820	5764	20890	11640	11270	12800	17780	29660	26830	129800	9450	25420	14620	6506	7384	38320	6271	33150	9788	65150	13260	7612	34110	8453	13950	21580	46730	7414	30590	8828	10820	10240	13500	23870	14490	20110	7951	19310	8758	12230	29460	11350	11630	10130	9433	22450	2147	16140	16650	5950	11330	29650	29880	8273	6872	6115	12090	33190	3482	15110	361	5613	5198	6903	23730	3871	57330	32740	4201	10150	37910	11750	12020	12570	5620	6013	24250	4163	15920	33430	15790	8858	33380	5420	12790	37600	8942	3998	6204	7859	6421	11540	8618	6180	6355	7581	26250	11680	10810	7918	8484	3742	9680	33760	15100	7162	9930	7467	9728	6775	6537	7032	19620	11670	9362	4369	7304	22150	11260	59080	9527	5139	12000	7392	27480	9426	4266	27960	14540	6436	17850	6932	25700	9545	11220	24900	5914	13240	7561	8763	30950	9063	10300	7334	6427	32500	8313	7759	29500	10230	11600	4643	8747	2772	7956	20500	11930	7455	9161	25690	15250	44960	21510	33260	13290	88510	44110	6367	27880	8500	8594	9336	62760	24650	15840	4751	3934	74360	10140	30170	4008	4931	7068	19950	3378	4215	9337	14230	9121	18220	6587	25350	5860	4837	2422	12290	8505	10310	37090	11410	40500	12360	15120	8539	3702	8244	15520	8679	6808	30030	12550	3728	14730	20770	6334	8511	21320	27130	9280	38690	11710	5983	31930	155	13380	4078	12510	8198	18170	15800	18470	5279	18530	14170	36680	15330	7646	12080	15400	23010	6654	14740	3868	29470	8108	9414	5966	27180	8902	6767	10600	9310	2206	2524	33940	41520	7886	4611	6873	31350	7295	9167	57570	346	19560	17600	21800	7269	6333	6162	7872	9197	24100	2979	6427	9282	6748	24980	6890	6505	8200	12030	7569	10510	19250	20390	18340	29920	9194	11240	21660	10980	7623	7439	4919	30540	23130	26280	7249	5595	34330	6821	19950	15570	19140	15280	26370	8057	6902	5290	14950	12350	7796	4528	12380	8366	20320	10410	7445	7252	1706	35920	24300	7384	6589	8347	7126	38100	31050	29780	31180	23950	10480	9980	7534	9912	5961	10560	8555	1655	6497	11400	6009	11860	5962	8131	18900	42440	24760	6613	10780	32640	8459	11060	29720	8844	6981	13620	8096	14060	10270	7279	17200
2021-07-26	11430	8863	4241	7629	11650	5895	10650	8000	2525	17780	11190	12350	11390	14880	5131	26270	37720	29190	5804	21020	11800	11410	12970	17880	29990	27020	130600	9563	25520	14800	6515	7424	38550	6313	33380	9890	65690	13370	7642	34320	8493	14010	21780	47240	7477	30840	8888	10880	10380	13580	24020	14530	20260	8005	19480	8824	12280	29530	11470	11650	10210	9507	22700	2159	16220	16810	6015	11410	29900	30110	8379	6941	6187	12180	33370	3495	15240	363	5674	5261	6955	23980	3902	57920	33060	4252	10240	38160	11870	12250	12660	5672	6076	24410	4214	16010	33790	15920	8892	33630	5446	12840	37820	8969	4034	6281	7897	6475	11670	8696	6232	6412	7625	26500	11750	10890	7975	8604	3761	9758	33910	15200	7224	10030	7549	9787	6834	6573	7077	19760	11720	9411	4426	7385	22380	11360	59240	9623	5198	12050	7479	27650	9498	4286	28160	14600	6525	18000	6999	25860	9597	11320	25050	5986	13440	7599	8830	31110	9149	10380	7394	6484	32710	8357	7830	29620	10330	11670	4679	8793	2782	8013	20680	12000	7525	9219	25940	15350	45240	21610	33550	13400	89170	44320	6419	28100	8537	8640	9418	63080	24750	15940	4792	3974	74740	10220	30340	4072	4991	7083	20070	3410	4257	9426	14310	9185	18400	6632	25540	5911	4856	2444	12310	8596	10430	37400	11510	40650	12380	15260	8562	3798	8333	15730	8771	6847	30200	12670	3770	14880	20970	6392	8566	21460	27430	9360	38980	11810	6015	32120	157	13470	4094	12560	8255	18260	16110	18640	5321	18650	14260	36770	15570	7702	12160	15470	23050	6688	14890	3907	29690	8172	9477	6010	27370	8983	6801	10760	9366	2224	2547	34180	41760	7979	4643	6928	31560	7373	9261	58020	349	19730	17660	22000	7311	6363	6211	7947	9262	24540	3031	6468	9344	6857	25090	6950	6577	8277	12110	7662	10590	19470	20580	18500	30160	9261	11370	21800	11080	7707	7494	4945	30870	23420	26470	7314	5656	34710	6874	20100	15650	19180	15430	26560	8130	6949	5347	15050	12460	7874	4563	12420	8447	20430	10510	7445	7276	1734	36130	24460	7451	6662	8370	7197	38300	31240	29940	31500	24120	10540	10050	7594	9998	5986	10640	8641	1674	6523	11480	6051	11910	6014	8195	19050	42570	25050	6667	10870	32860	8519	11170	29910	8929	7046	13670	8160	14180	10410	7336	17320

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-20 to 2021-07-26

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-07-19	11072	8358	3898	6973	10520	5639	9929	7278	2390	17156	10499	11574	10913	14144	4712	25755	35762	26517	5418	20019	10783	10470	11909	17135	27418	25653	124838	8745	24984	13526	6451	6981	37078	5993	31378	9105	61951	12592	7431	32992	8254	13681	20559	43335	7054	29026	8036	10486	9398	13172	22989	14325	19246	7646	18284	8323	11937	29041	10609	11511	9660	9001	20898	2075	15771	15651	5598	10823	27866	28387	7645	6407	5652	11370	31919	3390	14237	358	5213	4728	6602	21516	3535	54892	30587	3887	9627	36362	11020	10620	11981	5286	5632	23328	3913	15565	31516	14828	8677	31727	5296	12392	36414	8744	3776	5766	7570	6049	10759	8141	5688	5961	7212	23992	11383	10245	7556	7750	3654	9189	32862	14472	6773	9457	7041	9270	6390	6286	6744	18279	11417	9091	4100	6779	20775	10794	57881	8896	4748	11693	6832	26387	8976	4134	26667	14203	5849	16887	6525	24686	9264	10542	23945	5548	11985	7381	8365	29938	8527	9768	6964	5992	31215	7696	7287	28567	9642	11222	4340	8632	2694	7619	19353	11605	7023	8719	24118	14677	43403	20946	31477	12780	85378	42794	6096	26485	8284	8340	8854	60768	24107	15104	4499	3678	72238	9636	29130	3595	4581	6978	19158	3149	3957	9057	13775	8726	17407	6285	24104	5564	4737	2276	12216	7931	9456	35199	10730	39533	12230	14291	8384	3115	7621	14507	8173	6594	29048	11753	3512	13721	19607	5931	8052	20486	25353	8763	38205	11166	5783	30836	141	12738	3986	12228	7742	17624	14511	17530	5015	17920	13655	36347	14142	7313	11604	14883	22695	6461	13865	3640	28459	7679	9048	5695	25755	8397	6602	9638	8951	2090	2391	32381	39941	7286	4356	6519	30459	6830	8587	54513	340	18477	17227	20199	6994	6127	5840	7400	8802	21532	2647	6156	8890	6091	24259	6533	6051	7704	11225	7030	10028	17877	19137	17320	28415	8775	10362	20988	10406	7136	7082	4711	28541	21642	25163	6832	5183	32179	6477	18949	14932	18854	14305	24591	7610	6631	4587	13915	11627	7219	4332	12153	7855	19614	9764	6543	7083	1526	34587	23357	6992	6196	8233	6677	35257	29872	28778	29280	22834	10250	9521	7173	9377	5871	9973	8070	1532	6320	11255	5776	11503	5483	7699	18038	40396	22899	6298	10246	31370	8088	10436	28549	8084	6589	13224	7720	13314	9415	6827	16523
2021-07-20	11130	8435	3947	7076	10640	5681	10030	7355	2416	17240	10620	11680	10970	14230	4765	25840	36000	26760	5470	20150	10910	10610	12090	17240	27790	25830	125600	8809	25080	13690	6461	7030	37290	6034	31630	9208	62470	12690	7460	33180	8314	13740	20740	43890	7112	29270	8142	10560	9500	13250	23140	14360	19390	7700	18450	8386	11980	29120	10720	11530	9730	9077	21100	2089	15890	15800	5663	10900	28120	28620	7718	6482	5709	11480	32100	3404	14370	361	5272	4831	6646	21810	3568	55480	30870	3928	9710	36570	11130	10750	12070	5333	5696	23470	3956	15670	31950	14970	8713	31950	5335	12460	36610	8778	3811	5854	7602	6112	10880	8210	5738	6021	7256	24300	11450	10330	7615	7831	3674	9266	33010	14580	6835	9550	7105	9327	6438	6326	6783	18460	11470	9144	4151	6842	21040	10900	58130	8982	4802	11750	6927	26550	9044	4153	26870	14290	5929	17030	6584	24830	9322	10650	24090	5603	12110	7416	8431	30100	8597	9850	7031	6069	31380	7758	7366	28700	9730	11280	4376	8679	2705	7667	19520	11690	7078	8789	24350	14770	43690	21050	31770	12890	86030	43010	6150	26680	8354	8399	8926	61100	24210	15230	4539	3714	72650	9700	29300	3637	4647	6992	19270	3189	3995	9155	13850	8786	17730	6328	24260	5615	4757	2294	12230	8021	9560	35530	10840	39680	12270	14420	8411	3192	7713	14710	8252	6639	29220	11860	3548	13870	19810	6000	8122	20610	25680	8836	38430	11270	5816	31080	143	12820	4001	12290	7800	17710	14780	17690	5060	18030	13740	36460	14390	7373	11710	14950	22750	6495	14000	3685	28670	7751	9112	5734	25980	8473	6648	9730	8989	2108	2417	32640	40220	7395	4388	6577	30640	6903	8678	54970	344	18640	17280	20480	7034	6161	5888	7473	8867	21860	2697	6189	8960	6158	24370	6595	6119	7776	11310	7125	10100	18160	19340	17460	28640	8836	10490	21130	10490	7224	7133	4737	28760	21890	25330	6902	5247	32610	6522	19090	15020	18890	14460	24800	7676	6686	4667	14030	11730	7314	4371	12190	7928	19710	9860	6681	7107	1553	34790	23520	7058	6247	8262	6749	35620	30060	28940	29590	23010	10360	9590	7236	9454	5905	10050	8145	1551	6349	11310	5826	11570	5542	7766	18180	40700	23160	6357	10330	31610	8143	10540	28710	8164	6654	13290	7781	13430	9530	6893	16650
2021-07-21	11230	8507	4004	7190	10740	5740	10100	7421	2434	17310	10750	11760	11040	14320	4822	25940	36250	27040	5512	20290	11070	10760	12320	17340	28070	25970	126400	8870	25180	13860	6472	7084	37480	6079	31900	9310	63010	12800	7490	33350	8378	13800	20950	44480	7173	29520	8240	10630	9610	13320	23290	14390	19530	7750	18610	8448	12040	29220	10860	11540	9790	9133	21300	2102	16000	15960	5724	10960	28420	28890	7790	6543	5763	11600	32340	3419	14520	363	5333	4936	6684	22100	3606	56180	31110	3970	9780	36780	11250	10910	12150	5382	5760	23620	4003	15750	32390	15110	8748	32150	5359	12570	36800	8803	3845	5942	7650	6177	11000	8286	5813	6088	7314	24590	11520	10420	7677	7914	3691	9345	33130	14700	6896	9660	7162	9403	6493	6364	6811	18700	11520	9205	4201	6907	21350	11010	58480	9067	4849	11810	7017	26710	9103	4175	27080	14360	6013	17190	6635	24980	9380	10770	24210	5659	12270	7456	8489	30250	8669	9930	7115	6157	31540	7833	7456	28830	9800	11350	4427	8725	2717	7702	19690	11760	7126	8862	24610	14860	43990	21160	32090	13000	86800	43210	6210	26890	8426	8456	8981	61480	24310	15360	4573	3766	73100	9780	29460	3680	4709	7003	19400	3231	4024	9260	13900	8828	18000	6396	24430	5660	4779	2311	12240	8116	9670	35900	10940	39830	12310	14500	8449	3270	7798	14960	8333	6681	29390	11960	3582	14040	20050	6096	8225	20720	26070	8909	38690	11380	5845	31350	147	12910	4017	12330	7878	17790	15060	17820	5103	18120	13820	36550	14670	7428	11830	15040	22820	6529	14150	3727	28900	7822	9179	5777	26180	8558	6692	9820	9033	2126	2441	32900	40500	7500	4430	6625	30850	6970	8768	55480	349	18810	17330	20780	7080	6196	5941	7557	8936	22190	2750	6217	9041	6225	24510	6649	6187	7856	11390	7224	10170	18490	19530	17600	28890	8895	10620	21280	10590	7310	7186	4774	28990	22150	25530	6974	5305	33070	6581	19240	15120	18930	14590	25020	7760	6744	4748	14150	11840	7417	4409	12210	8006	19800	9960	6790	7138	1572	35000	23700	7112	6312	8285	6823	36070	30260	29100	29930	23200	10460	9657	7303	9533	5927	10110	8224	1566	6382	11400	5876	11650	5616	7824	18310	40970	23390	6411	10410	31870	8195	10620	28870	8257	6721	13350	7849	13540	9650	6968	16780
2021-07-22	11310	8573	4057	7304	10850	5790	10180	7488	2451	17380	10900	11850	11100	14420	4877	26030	36530	27280	5553	20430	11220	10910	12540	17450	28350	26120	127300	8931	25270	14030	6481	7139	37680	6121	32190	9414	63540	12890	7518	33520	8444	13850	21150	45110	7231	29770	8348	10700	9710	13400	23440	14420	19670	7802	18770	8513	12090	29320	10980	11560	9860	9193	21500	2114	16110	16110	5786	11020	28710	29140	7863	6609	5818	11720	32570	3434	14660	365	5393	5047	6725	22420	3643	56840	31400	4018	9870	36980	11370	11070	12240	5431	5823	23770	4050	15830	32770	15260	8784	32390	5385	12650	37000	8826	3878	6029	7690	6252	11120	8365	5874	6156	7363	24860	11600	10500	7743	8005	3710	9423	33260	14810	6958	9760	7224	9468	6557	6403	6839	18890	11570	9267	4253	6966	21650	11120	58790	9148	4899	11870	7117	26860	9161	4195	27290	14420	6098	17350	6687	25120	9438	10900	24340	5718	12410	7503	8547	30410	8745	10000	7192	6235	31700	7920	7540	28960	9880	11420	4469	8773	2727	7739	19870	11840	7178	8937	24860	14950	44300	21260	32430	13110	87550	43440	6267	27120	8496	8513	9039	61830	24410	15500	4609	3826	73530	9860	29620	3722	4778	7012	19520	3269	4056	9364	13940	8869	18280	6454	24600	5707	4800	2331	12240	8219	9780	36270	11050	39990	12340	14580	8484	3348	7885	15210	8413	6723	29530	12060	3607	14240	20280	6178	8308	20830	26430	8980	38950	11500	5875	31620	151	12990	4032	12370	7943	17890	15360	17970	5142	18220	13890	36650	14950	7483	11950	15120	22870	6563	14290	3767	29130	7895	9245	5825	26390	8642	6741	9920	9075	2145	2463	33170	40750	7598	4467	6680	31050	7036	8858	56000	352	18980	17380	21070	7123	6229	5993	7638	9005	22520	2803	6247	9113	6293	24620	6709	6256	7934	11460	7332	10250	18790	19740	17740	29150	8953	10750	21420	10680	7398	7237	4804	29230	22430	25710	7048	5368	33520	6631	19390	15210	18970	14710	25250	7835	6801	4829	14260	11950	7515	4450	12240	8082	19900	10050	6907	7164	1592	35210	23870	7173	6376	8310	6894	36470	30460	29250	30260	23390	10560	9724	7370	9612	5956	10180	8314	1582	6414	11490	5925	11730	5676	7889	18440	41250	23640	6469	10490	32160	8252	10710	29050	8356	6787	13420	7926	13640	9770	7048	16910
2021-07-23	11390	8627	4109	7417	10950	5838	10260	7556	2467	17450	11020	11930	11170	14510	4931	26120	36770	27530	5594	20560	11370	11060	12730	17550	28620	26260	128100	8992	25340	14200	6491	7194	37870	6161	32460	9516	64020	12990	7548	33700	8507	13910	21360	45690	7289	30010	8432	10770	9810	13470	23590	14440	19810	7853	18930	8577	12140	29400	11100	11590	9930	9254	21700	2126	16210	16260	5843	11080	28960	29390	7938	6667	5872	11830	32830	3448	14800	367	5452	5143	6763	22720	3676	57410	31680	4063	9970	37190	11480	11210	12330	5474	5886	23920	4097	15930	33130	15420	8820	32590	5408	12720	37210	8851	3912	6105	7730	6306	11240	8445	5935	6206	7411	25140	11670	10590	7792	8089	3730	9502	33390	14910	7017	9880	7290	9535	6621	6435	6865	19060	11620	9326	4305	7029	21920	11230	59070	9232	4956	11930	7206	27020	9217	4215	27500	14490	6179	17500	6740	25260	9496	11010	24470	5775	12560	7550	8603	30560	8820	10090	7267	6306	31870	7979	7624	29080	9960	11470	4507	8820	2736	7778	20050	11910	7234	9002	25090	15040	44570	21360	32730	13220	88200	43650	6322	27330	8562	8571	9099	62180	24500	15610	4646	3873	73940	9930	29780	3760	4843	7023	19640	3308	4088	9462	13990	8908	18530	6513	24760	5755	4821	2349	12250	8321	9870	36630	11150	40140	12380	14680	8516	3428	7972	15430	8496	6765	29680	12160	3633	14410	20490	6261	8387	20950	26750	9050	39190	11610	5904	31880	153	13070	4048	12420	8007	17950	15670	18110	5178	18320	13970	36740	15220	7539	12060	15200	22920	6597	14430	3807	29340	7966	9305	5871	26620	8724	6783	10020	9119	2161	2485	33380	40970	7696	4501	6732	31230	7103	8949	56470	356	19150	17430	21340	7160	6261	6042	7713	9072	22860	2845	6275	9182	6359	24710	6765	6322	8009	11540	7428	10310	19060	19940	17880	29380	9008	10880	21560	10770	7474	7289	4834	29460	22720	25890	7128	5432	33970	6689	19530	15300	19000	14840	25450	7899	6859	4906	14380	12050	7613	4486	12260	8158	20000	10150	7046	7187	1618	35390	24020	7236	6439	8337	6961	36700	30660	29410	30580	23580	10650	9790	7429	9689	5983	10250	8393	1601	6446	11560	5973	11800	5733	7948	18570	41500	23910	6526	10560	32390	8304	10800	29230	8448	6853	13470	7993	13740	9890	7126	17050
2021-07-24	11490	8675	4155	7525	11050	5888	10340	7625	2481	17510	11120	11980	11220	14600	4986	26200	36970	27750	5626	20680	11500	11190	12890	17650	28920	26390	128900	9054	25400	14370	6500	7238	38040	6197	32710	9614	64380	13050	7575	33860	8571	13960	21540	46140	7346	30260	8497	10840	9890	13520	23710	14470	19940	7904	19070	8638	12180	29480	11190	11600	10000	9315	21900	2137	16290	16400	5886	11120	29170	29600	8014	6718	5927	11910	33030	3461	14930	369	5511	5229	6798	23020	3707	57850	31920	4109	10030	37400	11590	11330	12420	5511	5950	24050	4143	16010	33450	15530	8857	32780	5431	12830	37360	8873	3946	6177	7769	6346	11350	8517	5987	6262	7456	25350	11730	10660	7828	8169	3751	9580	33520	15010	7067	9960	7346	9592	6674	6465	6892	19210	11670	9377	4353	7081	22160	11330	59400	9312	5004	11980	7292	27170	9274	4234	27700	14540	6256	17650	6793	25390	9555	11110	24570	5829	12710	7586	8658	30680	8876	10160	7335	6369	32030	8036	7683	29190	10030	11520	4548	8865	2745	7818	20220	11980	7289	9043	25290	15130	44780	21470	32960	13270	88770	43800	6374	27530	8617	8619	9159	62480	24600	15710	4680	3904	74300	10000	29910	3799	4901	7032	19760	3344	4120	9552	14040	8944	18780	6576	24930	5803	4837	2366	12260	8413	9950	36980	11250	40270	12410	14770	8545	3509	8059	15620	8563	6806	29820	12260	3656	14550	20670	6333	8466	21050	27050	9120	39410	11710	5934	32120	156	13140	4065	12460	8064	18000	15950	18230	5214	18400	14050	36840	15500	7595	12160	15270	22960	6632	14530	3848	29480	8035	9359	5901	26810	8807	6823	10110	9160	2175	2506	33610	41150	7777	4533	6777	31400	7163	9040	56910	360	19320	17470	21590	7199	6292	6090	7775	9133	23200	2883	6303	9241	6421	24810	6813	6381	8077	11600	7527	10370	19320	20110	18020	29560	9062	11010	21670	10860	7548	7340	4861	29690	22980	26080	7191	5483	34330	6722	19670	15390	19040	14970	25640	7961	6917	4982	14490	12150	7707	4517	12290	8235	20080	10230	7132	7208	1639	35530	24140	7292	6494	8359	7019	36940	30840	29550	30850	23750	10730	9856	7488	9750	6004	10320	8468	1615	6475	11620	6021	11870	5792	7991	18680	41700	24130	6577	10630	32570	8346	10870	29400	8534	6917	13530	8046	13850	9990	7195	17150
2021-07-25	11560	8727	4205	7635	11140	5934	10420	7691	2497	17570	11240	12030	11270	14690	5041	26270	37160	28000	5651	20810	11630	11330	13030	17750	29190	26520	129700	9113	25450	14550	6510	7276	38200	6238	32970	9708	64740	13140	7602	34010	8635	14000	21680	46630	7403	30500	8548	10900	9990	13570	23850	14490	20070	7956	19230	8704	12220	29560	11280	11610	10070	9379	22090	2149	16380	16540	5930	11170	29390	29820	8092	6774	5982	11980	33200	3475	15070	371	5571	5308	6835	23310	3732	58290	32170	4152	10100	37610	11700	11470	12500	5552	6014	24180	4190	16090	33770	15670	8894	33000	5456	12910	37510	8898	3982	6249	7804	6395	11470	8592	6031	6320	7497	25550	11800	10740	7869	8248	3771	9660	33650	15110	7120	10020	7398	9645	6729	6492	6918	19350	11730	9432	4400	7127	22410	11430	59620	9399	5054	12040	7375	27320	9329	4253	27900	14590	6338	17800	6846	25520	9615	11200	24670	5883	12860	7622	8711	30800	8930	10240	7408	6421	32190	8092	7737	29300	10110	11570	4580	8908	2753	7860	20400	12030	7345	9097	25500	15220	45010	21580	33190	13330	89360	43960	6426	27720	8673	8670	9220	62770	24680	15810	4717	3940	74600	10070	30030	3839	4964	7041	19890	3380	4153	9641	14090	8977	19010	6621	25100	5852	4858	2383	12260	8512	10030	37340	11350	40400	12440	14860	8576	3591	8140	15800	8631	6848	29950	12360	3680	14720	20860	6404	8526	21170	27350	9190	39620	11790	5964	32360	159	13220	4081	12500	8115	18060	16240	18350	5248	18500	14130	36940	15780	7652	12250	15330	23000	6667	14620	3889	29640	8104	9411	5932	26980	8890	6866	10200	9205	2191	2527	33790	41320	7853	4565	6820	31550	7221	9132	57370	364	19490	17520	21840	7234	6321	6137	7844	9196	23550	2922	6334	9298	6483	24900	6860	6443	8149	11660	7618	10420	19590	20310	18160	29730	9117	11140	21790	10950	7622	7392	4885	29910	23280	26240	7249	5531	34750	6748	19800	15480	19070	15110	25810	8020	6976	5053	14600	12250	7805	4547	12310	8312	20170	10320	7226	7229	1658	35670	24260	7344	6549	8378	7078	37230	31030	29680	31110	23930	10820	9923	7549	9814	6024	10390	8535	1628	6504	11670	6070	11930	5840	8034	18800	41920	24370	6623	10710	32750	8386	10950	29500	8623	6978	13590	8101	13950	10100	7259	17270
2021-07-26	11660	8808	4257	7750	11250	5990	10510	7760	2513	17630	11380	12100	11340	14780	5097	26360	37390	28260	5685	20950	11780	11470	13220	17860	29480	26650	130500	9174	25520	14720	6519	7316	38390	6282	33230	9811	65220	13220	7630	34190	8702	14060	21870	47200	7465	30750	8608	10970	10100	13640	24010	14520	20220	8005	19380	8768	12260	29660	11400	11620	10140	9442	22300	2160	16490	16680	5984	11220	29660	30080	8170	6834	6038	12060	33420	3489	15200	374	5630	5399	6873	23580	3764	58980	32450	4201	10180	37820	11810	11620	12590	5595	6079	24330	4237	16170	34150	15810	8931	33220	5481	13000	37710	8924	4018	6331	7839	6455	11580	8674	6080	6375	7543	25780	11870	10830	7923	8316	3792	9740	33780	15220	7178	10150	7459	9723	6789	6520	6944	19580	11780	9490	4458	7197	22700	11540	60060	9490	5106	12100	7465	27470	9385	4272	28110	14640	6421	17950	6900	25650	9676	11300	24790	5944	13010	7663	8767	30950	8998	10320	7484	6500	32370	8163	7814	29420	10200	11640	4621	8956	2761	7901	20580	12110	7404	9158	25740	15310	45290	21680	33460	13410	90080	44150	6481	27930	8738	8727	9282	63110	24780	15920	4754	3993	75000	10150	30170	3880	5027	7051	20010	3417	4187	9746	14140	9006	19280	6691	25270	5901	4882	2405	12270	8601	10130	37700	11440	40550	12470	14960	8610	3675	8219	16050	8708	6890	30150	12460	3707	14890	21090	6482	8599	21280	27700	9260	39910	11890	5994	32650	161	13300	4098	12550	8183	18130	16570	18480	5283	18600	14210	37040	16070	7709	12360	15440	23060	6702	14750	3931	29880	8175	9476	5974	27190	8973	6911	10270	9253	2207	2551	34020	41560	7944	4599	6874	31760	7286	9226	57850	368	19660	17560	22120	7274	6351	6186	7919	9267	23900	2966	6364	9365	6556	25030	6915	6506	8225	11710	7726	10480	19870	20510	18310	29950	9171	11270	21920	11040	7711	7444	4923	30150	23550	26410	7322	5582	35170	6782	19940	15570	19110	15250	26000	8094	7035	5127	14690	12350	7898	4581	12330	8390	20270	10420	7318	7253	1678	35830	24400	7401	6609	8402	7142	37550	31220	29820	31420	24120	10920	9989	7613	9887	6046	10460	8614	1643	6536	11750	6119	12020	5901	8077	18940	42110	24630	6678	10790	33010	8429	11030	29640	8715	7044	13650	8169	14060	10220	7331	17410

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-07-19 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-07-19