COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-07-24 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-07-24

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-07-24

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-06-2112-272021-07-132021-07-072021-07-112021-06-232021-03-25 --07-212021-03-252021-07-122021-07-112021-07-132021-07-072021-07-1012-282021-07-112021-07-072021-07-112021-07-122021-07-082021-07-102021-07-062021-07-112021-07-132021-07-1112-292021-07-1112-272021-07-1212-072021-07-082021-07-082021-07-102021-01-012021-07-082021-07-102021-07-0812-272021-07-112021-07-072021-07-112021-07-072021-07-072021-07-102021-07-082021-07-102021-07-122021-07-102021-07-132021-07-062021-06-302021-07-072021-06-222021-07-102021-07-122021-06-192021-07-072021-07-072021-07-132021-07-07 --2021-07-1110-282021-07-102021-07-072021-07-112021-07-112021-07-112021-07-082021-07-112021-07-112021-07-112021-07-072021-06-202021-01-0412-26 --2021-07-122021-07-102021-07-122021-07-072021-07-122021-07-062021-07-132021-07-112021-07-072021-07-112021-07-072021-07-072021-07-122021-07-062021-07-062021-01-022021-07-1112-212021-07-072021-07-122021-07-122021-07-1212-222021-06-212021-07-1107-212021-07-082021-07-102021-06-212021-07-102021-07-072021-07-072021-06-132021-07-072021-06-202021-07-102021-07-062021-07-102021-07-072021-07-112021-07-132021-07-102021-07-112021-07-102021-07-132021-07-072021-07-132021-06-202021-07-082021-07-132021-07-112021-06-202021-07-132021-07-082021-07-122021-07-082021-07-042021-07-0610-042021-07-072021-07-112021-07-122021-07-072021-07-112021-07-112021-06-272021-07-082021-07-132021-07-082021-07-072021-07-112021-07-112021-07-122021-07-072021-07-112021-07-072021-07-102021-06-272021-07-112021-07-112021-07-082021-07-082021-07-062021-06-202021-07-072021-07-102021-07-062021-07-112021-07-122021-06-2612-212021-07-1312-212021-07-072021-07-082021-07-112021-07-132021-07-082021-07-102021-07-102021-07-1112-272021-07-072021-07-112021-07-112021-01-032021-07-102021-07-082021-07-072021-07-1112-2112-262021-07-082021-07-122021-07-132021-07-112021-07-072021-07-112021-07-112021-07-102021-07-1012-082021-07-102021-07-102021-07-112021-07-0812-212021-03-252021-07-072021-06-272021-07-072021-07-1012-062021-07-042021-03-182021-07-102021-07-122021-07-042021-07-082021-07-122021-07-102021-07-1307-212021-07-112021-07-112021-07-102021-07-112021-07-1210-042021-07-112021-07-132021-07-072021-07-042021-07-062021-07-072021-07-122021-07-072021-01-012021-07-122021-07-132021-07-112021-07-072021-06-292021-06-212021-07-072021-07-122021-06-222021-07-122021-07-112021-01-012021-07-062021-01-042021-07-112021-07-132021-07-072021-07-132021-07-0810-042021-07-1012-272021-07-112021-07-062021-07-072021-07-102021-06-282021-07-082021-07-102021-07-102021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-112021-07-082021-07-102021-07-1012-232021-07-112021-06-282021-07-102021-07-112021-07-0707-212021-07-082021-07-112021-07-082021-07-1112-292021-07-102021-07-102021-07-102021-07-102021-07-102021-07-122021-07-102021-07-1110-042021-07-112021-07-082021-07-062021-07-112021-07-102021-07-112021-06-272021-07-112021-07-072021-07-072021-07-112021-07-102021-07-072021-07-102021-07-072021-07-132021-06-202021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-132021-07-052021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-122021-07-072021-06-202021-07-082021-07-102021-07-102021-07-112021-07-112021-07-112021-07-112021-07-102021-07-112021-07-082021-07-1012-06 --2021-07-072021-07-052021-07-112021-07-072021-07-092021-07-072021-07-102021-07-082021-07-132021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-112021-07-072021-07-072021-06-212021-07-072021-07-102021-07-1210-042021-07-072021-07-062021-06-222021-07-072021-07-112021-07-112021-07-062021-07-072021-07-122021-07-112021-07-062021-07-102021-07-112021-07-102021-07-102021-07-102021-06-302021-07-082021-07-112021-07-082021-07-082021-07-06
Peak daily increment 137 102 54 124 111 82 77 115 106 141 108 68 101 59 477 283 275 54 154 159 151 216 112 445 194 1249 80 157 166 95 66 208 46 484 109 494 106 107 199 68 56 224 590 68 260 96 85 102 74 161 32 161 59 172 75 59 95 113 25 112 249 41 121 177 57 81 273 254 91 77 73 116 436 19 243 65 114 50 332 39 587 373 56 107 265 126 145 99 52 93 246 51 170 412 170 46 297 119 180 211 296 51 98 76 62 127 93 115 68 64 330 73 93 63 95 23 83 160 108 63 107 88 80 72 44 51 234 60 72 62 86 263 122 631 94 66 67 117 178 75 23 235 80 88 160 65 169 67 114 156 76 150 44 73 169 84 88 70 85 208 84 83 150 112 69 74 72 18 73 194 85 86 75 290 100 284 311 300 110 711 284 54 215 85 60 102 727 111 132 44 49 431 83 186 43 81 105 130 46 42 101 186 26 281 96 193 52 62 33 23 103 133 371 106 162 36 161 186 83 102 233 88 47 389 104 39 205 220 75 98 144 324 121 273 182 34 248 4 123 24 57 109 100 360 203 43 102 88 126 303 64 113 150 58 52 148 66 207 78 68 49 226 82 50 117 73 20 24 256 273 100 83 61 193 73 131 516 24 183 65 285 46 42 50 78 69 373 48 47 70 72 460 65 72 77 101 113 83 296 212 162 254 82 128 140 92 79 58 39 248 351 249 75 75 418 63 150 107 47 179 224 82 62 81 144 119 97 39 41 84 110 106 144 101 217 180 68 66 28 79 361 201 170 326 199 110 78 70 88 26 105 92 22 79 94 47 101 65 73 149 373 313 65 89 237 64 107 204 102 70 62 81 124 127 72 135
Days since peak 33 209 11 17 13 31 121 368 121 12 13 11 17 14 208 13 17 13 12 16 14 18 13 11 13 207 13 209 12 229 16 16 14 204 16 14 16 209 13 17 13 17 17 14 16 14 12 14 11 18 24 17 32 14 12 35 17 17 11 17 13 269 14 17 13 13 13 16 13 13 13 17 34 201 210 12 14 12 17 12 18 11 13 17 13 17 17 12 18 18 203 13 215 17 12 12 12 214 33 13 368 16 14 33 14 17 17 41 17 34 14 18 14 17 13 11 14 13 14 11 17 11 34 16 11 13 34 11 16 12 16 20 18 293 17 13 12 17 13 13 27 16 11 16 17 13 13 12 17 13 17 14 27 13 13 16 16 18 34 17 14 18 13 12 28 215 11 215 17 16 13 11 16 14 14 13 209 17 13 13 202 14 16 17 13 215 210 16 12 11 13 17 13 13 14 14 228 14 14 13 16 215 121 17 27 17 14 230 20 128 14 12 20 16 12 14 11 368 13 13 14 13 12 293 13 11 17 20 18 17 12 17 204 12 11 13 17 25 33 17 12 32 12 13 204 18 201 13 11 17 11 16 293 14 209 13 18 17 14 26 16 14 14 17 17 17 17 13 16 14 14 213 13 26 14 13 17 368 16 13 16 13 207 14 14 14 14 14 12 14 13 293 13 16 18 13 14 13 27 13 17 17 13 14 17 14 17 11 34 17 18 18 17 11 19 17 17 17 18 12 17 34 16 14 14 13 13 13 13 14 13 16 14 230 17 19 13 17 15 17 14 16 11 16 17 16 13 17 17 33 17 14 12 293 17 18 32 17 13 13 18 17 12 13 18 14 13 14 14 14 24 16 13 16 16 18
Last total 11328 8563 4029 7224 10778 5742 10404 7726 2479 17671 10916 11899 11147 14476 4866 26148 36673 27283 5582 20481 11186 10841 12384 17544 29224 26289 127660 8968 25284 14132 6485 7181 37690 6156 32692 9348 63518 12882 7593 33754 8435 13845 21256 44895 7256 29808 8282 10755 9679 13413 23447 14443 19836 7914 18833 8567 12174 29406 10827 11614 9875 9524 21613 2117 16205 16113 5814 11075 28752 29063 7922 6662 5870 11692 32626 3459 14733 388 5430 4966 6782 22656 3665 56505 31552 4047 9905 37262 11386 11035 12294 5444 5858 23824 4061 16184 32750 15456 8840 32531 5436 12570 37191 8887 3882 6073 7668 6243 11093 8402 5868 6168 7322 24921 11619 10566 7713 8053 3713 9432 33471 14813 6919 9711 7358 9451 6601 6444 6972 18751 11637 9290 4225 7055 21402 11140 58889 9194 4918 11938 7092 27035 9219 4205 27372 14484 6093 17387 6703 25315 9489 10890 24464 5743 12330 7555 8609 30504 8780 10033 7134 6212 31844 7916 7496 29174 9950 11412 4438 8859 2734 7836 19956 11915 7276 8882 24962 14992 44340 21326 32358 13109 87683 43550 6234 27155 8528 8564 9301 62062 24546 15538 4659 3797 73654 9955 29819 3679 4788 7023 19609 3271 4104 9310 14347 9128 18136 6406 24641 5721 4814 2369 12322 8228 9854 36064 10984 40178 12371 15010 8529 3337 7901 15177 8430 6773 29603 12123 3651 14210 20233 6095 8288 21043 26115 9074 39142 11540 5903 31589 150 13054 4066 12431 7880 18013 15415 18090 5164 18353 13954 36863 14856 7520 11946 15078 22927 6584 14256 3744 29113 7919 9211 5831 26571 8687 6741 10007 9082 2157 2473 33220 40741 7559 4488 6688 31099 7052 8886 56182 370 18959 17461 20870 7182 6231 5999 7671 8989 22478 2805 6283 9100 6292 24674 6748 6296 7909 11563 7326 10290 18481 19866 17762 29288 8981 10728 21457 10668 7382 7290 4821 29326 22524 25748 7050 5442 33180 6616 19385 15242 19054 14800 25272 7798 6793 4867 14339 11931 7518 4477 12303 8148 20023 10134 6964 7164 1654 35338 23976 7207 6382 8325 6896 36443 30519 29416 30204 23402 10560 9758 7365 9603 6062 10254 8334 1607 6469 11557 5908 11755 5665 7951 18581 41355 23896 6549 10531 32104 8269 10774 29193 8339 6795 13434 7959 13690 9757 7055 16880
Last daily increment 34 27 21 21 43 15 71 81 14 92 48 45 37 51 18 63 130 102 18 52 43 37 62 65 265 91 376 29 42 78 1 26 72 17 211 35 226 33 27 124 29 4 86 183 35 90 38 36 28 31 70 12 104 41 49 31 25 31 33 6 27 85 102 0 71 49 39 31 105 100 42 30 28 48 103 6 52 3 0 27 23 164 14 216 128 8 34 118 46 49 47 29 2 74 19 85 152 84 7 93 33 25 115 21 15 38 9 31 46 32 18 23 6 94 29 43 18 40 10 33 84 49 22 37 63 14 31 12 52 64 8 22 8 49 97 45 140 45 23 42 34 78 35 3 86 39 23 68 19 88 25 45 57 24 42 16 31 77 28 35 20 31 66 27 22 96 48 27 12 40 1 44 74 37 30 17 98 57 120 61 76 46 365 99 19 81 22 42 87 175 70 48 19 8 191 55 116 16 19 1 62 18 15 29 95 69 109 10 84 32 6 15 5 36 54 121 34 91 17 112 28 32 35 85 20 24 66 50 21 60 88 20 32 83 98 37 144 49 25 96 0 57 4 28 17 49 134 79 5 63 40 78 81 21 49 21 10 13 66 9 77 47 28 17 112 38 17 48 19 10 12 119 108 27 20 19 96 20 42 251 2 55 35 74 31 14 22 37 22 119 17 16 27 25 60 28 50 30 36 47 43 89 121 48 102 34 41 66 38 35 28 10 98 105 72 32 30 134 20 56 36 15 52 88 17 22 44 42 46 37 24 16 32 72 53 61 5 11 105 92 22 26 9 23 144 108 86 111 95 33 25 21 33 27 39 34 12 24 38 19 38 33 23 68 134 135 30 32 115 21 43 80 28 37 5 34 50 42 35 51
Last week 318 266 177 340 383 141 605 572 122 642 552 466 295 433 195 482 1192 1043 232 603 516 513 629 524 2271 832 3678 312 406 765 46 250 852 208 1551 347 2116 380 189 1005 231 229 915 2043 266 1019 349 370 386 339 614 159 763 330 729 313 298 445 313 126 298 627 958 59 559 603 288 356 1155 924 368 342 296 414 910 84 626 39 274 338 244 1441 169 2176 1281 207 374 1152 457 579 394 211 293 661 205 787 1596 767 205 1070 189 251 1038 192 138 391 127 252 458 328 218 269 142 1291 324 414 213 394 89 321 796 449 213 349 408 244 266 197 289 596 297 244 189 359 854 439 1253 407 229 318 357 838 324 87 909 372 335 646 247 785 296 454 684 278 490 209 335 759 341 345 231 279 834 290 272 756 426 246 137 281 54 307 760 399 323 213 1108 414 1272 494 1159 446 3074 989 192 871 310 285 552 1617 560 532 202 159 1858 407 886 139 283 66 562 160 195 350 680 488 1012 176 689 218 101 119 122 379 531 1194 352 803 180 927 176 307 366 904 360 231 727 484 183 651 820 224 315 706 1084 395 1243 491 163 992 11 401 100 264 186 486 1184 754 185 568 412 677 970 275 411 257 281 158 556 151 895 304 225 178 1019 356 187 479 179 89 115 1121 1069 358 160 226 852 297 392 2120 34 653 298 879 240 145 202 332 246 1306 213 175 269 283 514 290 314 264 438 399 349 818 933 609 1098 269 481 621 351 337 257 139 1041 1215 760 280 334 1368 186 584 387 239 679 912 261 219 380 574 430 377 179 195 368 531 469 557 109 171 940 807 292 257 114 280 1577 847 794 1256 735 440 310 252 310 241 374 347 97 177 376 192 316 240 324 715 1284 1273 318 360 960 244 468 832 347 281 276 305 509 456 279 488
Previous peak date07-2107-2112-2712-2612-2707-2112-2112-26 --12-2112-2112-2712-0712-2112-23 --12-2310-1312-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1111-0212-2110-0712-2211-0212-2710-1310-13 --2021-01-0710-1511-1311-0212-2110-2412-22 --12-2712-1412-0612-2811-0212-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3010-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-21 --11-0212-2212-2812-2512-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-2907-2107-2110-14 --12-2912-2612-2712-2112-2411-0212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-2810-272021-02-2510-0110-1412-2712-0712-2607-2107-2112-27 --12-2412-2907-2112-2412-2111-0907-2112-2607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-06 --07-2112-2312-2712-2207-2112-2512-2512-2510-1710-2912-2607-2112-2212-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-2712-2812-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-2212-2907-2112-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0107-2112-2806-1112-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2210-2709-2912-292021-01-0611-0211-0212-2112-2712-2711-0210-1209-2812-2712-2212-2112-3111-022021-01-0212-22 --2021-01-07 --12-2112-2112-2112-2210-1212-2112-3107-2112-2212-27 --07-2112-0712-2812-2911-0211-0312-2712-0612-27 --12-0810-1410-2612-2612-2107-2111-0112-2112-3011-0412-2111-0312-2712-21 --11-0212-2911-0210-22 --12-2712-2812-2607-212021-01-0611-0211-0212-0611-0212-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2207-2112-0610-1112-2112-2710-1912-1310-1112-1310-1812-3012-2810-1312-252021-01-262021-01-0211-0212-2910-3107-2112-2112-2812-2912-2211-02 --12-3012-2512-2512-2107-2112-2212-2112-2812-26 --2021-01-0412-2211-0907-2112-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-2712-2207-2112-2812-2811-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2510-182021-01-0212-2612-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-2112-2212-2212-27 -- --12-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-2012-1307-2111-0212-0707-2112-2212-2812-2210-1612-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-2712-3112-2812-2512-3112-2112-3012-2611-02
Previous peak daily increment 605 366 61 88 97 285 134 82 260 170 110 176 178 78 589 189 58 326 128 109 277 233 262 426 1200 75 166 98 58 234 50 355 142 434 228 524 155 233 307 1167 107 508 94 186 62 122 160 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 107 303 292 268 52 197 249 283 59 91 71 65 1221 82 35 35 53 94 288 34 551 288 38 181 598 151 69 189 72 58 164 27 206 248 187 118 322 216 684 536 60 52 370 76 160 106 184 51 226 206 102 163 146 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 457 90 74 94 661 150 125 54 42 127 82 1697 91 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 218 59 201 57 401 172 103 338 103 106 136 120 476 101 159 52 139 442 57 115 452 143 83 239 134 44 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 153 428 107 1522 469 104 457 71 229 71 480 274 200 90 36 2166 92 419 46 298 37 62 153 109 105 213 296 361 79 65 191 105 63 2512 85 723 190 212 23 53 137 105 50 969 105 58 123 106 41 56 277 158 1362 90 68 257 125 44 108 227 154 135 347 43 156 174 623 105 81 176 445 286 41 188 39 194 138 65 96 198 80 85 67 174 36 25 417 448 80 147 82 407 65 131 557 209 244 167 97 218 110 102 69 181 42 86 73 839 94 79 108 80 66 102 115 248 293 451 131 156 222 94 55 112 144 189 137 197 67 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 172 56 109 46 140 349 90 44 138 123 360 138 51 559 151 90 110 120 84 245 329 449 390 227 260 138 117 160 65 154 87 29 296 165 42 369 67 115 217 319 264 83 148 431 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 573
Low between peaks 0 -1 -3 -2 -7 0 8 13 -11 2 -7 -17 -8 -2 9 -1 -30 -13 2 -14 -12 9 3 307 -1 55 -9 -14 17 2 31 -8 31 -4 -39 -11 1 -1 -18 -8 -8 -10 -16 -1 3 3 0 8 2 -17 -6 -64 5 -9 2 -2 -1 -7 -11 -11 -3 -9 -14 -3 -6 0 4 -11 -4 -19 1 1 2 -30 -1 -13 -19 -5 -8 -4 -11 -5 1 -7 0 53 -3 34 1 -28 -14 -4 -2 -3 -6 -3 -7 -3 -6 -12 -2 -5 2 -1 -5 1 -17 -6 -5 0 -4 -80 -12 1 0 -4 0 0 4 -5 1 -7 -5 -8 -7 2 -7 -13 -8 -2 -8 -25 -21 1 -27 -25 -2 -5 1 -12 -2 -17 5 2 -1 -8 -12 -19 -9 -1 2 -1 -27 1 -1 12 -5 3 -2 -7 0 -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -12 -3 27 20 2 -5 40 120 1 -18 0 -9 21 58 7 -22 0 0 27 1 -45 -13 2 -10 -3 -10 39 6 5 -15 0 -3 0 7 -10 1 15 -14 4 2 8 -5 -12 -3 -7 -6 -7 5 -6 -16 5 1 -7 -3 -7 6 -5 1 6 1 1 3 1 5 -74 37 0 38 -8 1 -1 -51 -13 -2 1 -20 -4 0 3 0 1 -6 0 -2 0 1 -14 -6 -8 2 -1 -4 -4 -20 -45 3 -6 23 -28 4 -3 -10 -2 -3 -4 -12 -23 3 -5 -4 -7 -11 -5 -1 2 -5 -10 2 -2 -3 -16 -2 -6 -39 -13 -2 1 -1 -4 4 -5 -7 -12 1 -4 -13 -40 3 -9 7 -8 -5 -6 -12 -3 -7 -4 -9 2 -6 -11 -1 5 0 -18 -3 1 -18 16 -9 -22 -4 -6 -4 4 -12 -13 -5 1 -7 0 -2 1 -4 -2 -1 -12 7 6 -36 -9 -5 -68 0 -11 -19 -2 -6 2 1 0 -3 -6 -48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-25 to 2021-07-31

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-07-24 11328 8563 4029 7224 10778 5742 10404 7726 2479 17671 10916 11899 11147 14476 4866 26148 36673 27283 5582 20481 11186 10841 12384 17544 29224 26289 127660 8968 25284 14132 6485 7181 37690 6156 32692 9348 63518 12882 7593 33754 8435 13845 21256 44895 7256 29808 8282 10755 9679 13413 23447 14443 19836 7914 18833 8567 12174 29406 10827 11614 9875 9524 21613 2117 16205 16113 5814 11075 28752 29063 7922 6662 5870 11692 32626 3459 14733 388 5430 4966 6782 22656 3665 56505 31552 4047 9905 37262 11386 11035 12294 5444 5858 23824 4061 16184 32750 15456 8840 32531 5436 12570 37191 8887 3882 6073 7668 6243 11093 8402 5868 6168 7322 24921 11619 10566 7713 8053 3713 9432 33471 14813 6919 9711 7358 9451 6601 6444 6972 18751 11637 9290 4225 7055 21402 11140 58889 9194 4918 11938 7092 27035 9219 4205 27372 14484 6093 17387 6703 25315 9489 10890 24464 5743 12330 7555 8609 30504 8780 10033 7134 6212 31844 7916 7496 29174 9950 11412 4438 8859 2734 7836 19956 11915 7276 8882 24962 14992 44340 21326 32358 13109 87683 43550 6234 27155 8528 8564 9301 62062 24546 15538 4659 3797 73654 9955 29819 3679 4788 7023 19609 3271 4104 9310 14347 9128 18136 6406 24641 5721 4814 2369 12322 8228 9854 36064 10984 40178 12371 15010 8529 3337 7901 15177 8430 6773 29603 12123 3651 14210 20233 6095 8288 21043 26115 9074 39142 11540 5903 31589 150 13054 4066 12431 7880 18013 15415 18090 5164 18353 13954 36863 14856 7520 11946 15078 22927 6584 14256 3744 29113 7919 9211 5831 26571 8687 6741 10007 9082 2157 2473 33220 40741 7559 4488 6688 31099 7052 8886 56182 370 18959 17461 20870 7182 6231 5999 7671 8989 22478 2805 6283 9100 6292 24674 6748 6296 7909 11563 7326 10290 18481 19866 17762 29288 8981 10728 21457 10668 7382 7290 4821 29326 22524 25748 7050 5442 33180 6616 19385 15242 19054 14800 25272 7798 6793 4867 14339 11931 7518 4477 12303 8148 20023 10134 6964 7164 1654 35338 23976 7207 6382 8325 6896 36443 30519 29416 30204 23402 10560 9758 7365 9603 6062 10254 8334 1607 6469 11557 5908 11755 5665 7951 18581 41355 23896 6549 10531 32104 8269 10774 29193 8339 6795 13434 7959 13690 9757 7055 16880
2021-07-25 11380 8583 4045 7282 10850 5764 10500 7821 2497 17760 10950 11920 11240 14610 4918 26210 36840 27490 5605 20550 11270 10880 12540 17630 29560 26430 128500 8985 25390 14230 6494 7212 37830 6180 33070 9399 63680 12920 7628 33980 8472 13870 21430 45350 7260 29940 8306 10820 9780 13510 23600 14480 19960 7966 18900 8677 12220 29530 10880 11640 9896 9610 21790 2123 16310 16150 5862 11090 28830 29280 7989 6683 5887 11760 32970 3471 14780 392 5446 4966 6839 22810 3696 56690 31810 4087 10010 37460 11450 11170 12330 5477 5873 23840 4073 16240 32960 15660 8851 32940 5466 12620 37360 8910 3904 6145 7687 6268 11180 8451 5897 6191 7344 24990 11710 10620 7738 8112 3731 9459 33600 14850 6963 9790 7419 9522 6651 6470 7018 18840 11690 9417 4240 7117 21590 11210 59210 9269 4970 11990 7190 27170 9240 4221 27510 14550 6136 17490 6717 25370 9513 10980 24580 5847 12430 7615 8662 30630 8835 10100 7185 6264 31940 7944 7536 29340 10100 11520 4453 8875 2743 7891 20070 11990 7332 8943 25160 15040 44560 21420 32520 13280 88600 43850 6273 27290 8585 8614 9385 62560 24640 15730 4691 3828 74280 10060 29970 3708 4914 7032 19710 3306 4125 9372 14450 9203 18260 6439 24750 5735 4832 2394 12340 8252 10060 36250 11050 40320 12400 15140 8556 3401 7927 15350 8453 6810 29680 12190 3698 14340 20310 6121 8357 21220 26580 9140 39360 11620 5928 31960 152 13120 4081 12510 7907 18120 15650 18300 5186 18370 14020 36970 14990 7569 12010 15100 22980 6615 14370 3769 29420 8032 9261 5860 26740 8717 6776 10070 9108 2171 2491 33430 40870 7621 4516 6782 31260 7076 8961 56640 375 19100 17550 21110 7229 6256 6014 7694 9028 22560 2805 6344 9118 6342 24730 6831 6353 7955 11700 7511 10410 18670 20190 17810 29410 9024 10770 21650 10730 7441 7336 4844 29510 22660 25900 7110 5499 33950 6646 19420 15320 19050 14920 25430 7851 6815 4931 14440 11970 7585 4510 12340 8216 20150 10220 6995 7185 1664 35450 24230 7298 6428 8348 6955 36860 30640 29550 30390 23570 10640 9774 7393 9628 6092 10310 8398 1621 6501 11630 5945 11810 5715 8040 18580 41700 24130 6588 10550 32480 8314 10850 29190 8380 6813 13480 8009 13740 9820 7076 16980
2021-07-26 11440 8626 4066 7366 10920 5799 10610 7926 2518 17850 10960 11970 11310 14710 5019 26270 37010 27880 5626 20600 11390 10900 12660 17760 29990 26660 129300 8996 25500 14310 6509 7257 37990 6206 33340 9473 63820 12980 7656 34220 8524 13910 21630 45730 7269 30140 8337 10920 9870 13600 23740 14530 20080 8019 18960 8749 12270 29640 10960 11670 9900 9690 22090 2131 16430 16210 5916 11100 28940 29470 8107 6717 5900 11840 33260 3487 14810 392 5458 5075 6898 23180 3734 56910 32050 4166 10090 37760 11550 11300 12390 5522 5873 23900 4084 16240 33180 15810 8851 33230 5490 12740 37610 8944 3929 6279 7720 6287 11280 8512 5948 6220 7386 25060 11790 10660 7756 8180 3760 9488 33780 14890 7033 9900 7461 9585 6739 6492 7065 19010 11760 9495 4263 7177 22040 11300 59520 9358 5011 12050 7274 27380 9253 4256 27690 14630 6191 17610 6725 25410 9536 11110 24770 5932 12630 7660 8741 30830 8899 10220 7303 6382 32090 7993 7594 29490 10220 11600 4473 8888 2764 7975 20220 12070 7424 8986 25540 15090 44820 21570 32750 13400 89430 44090 6344 27420 8637 8671 9463 62990 24740 15850 4724 3893 74780 10150 30160 3755 5001 7038 19870 3358 4149 9469 14550 9287 18410 6501 24890 5744 4857 2421 12360 8261 10220 36450 11140 40510 12440 15270 8586 3484 7935 15680 8473 6857 29800 12260 3741 14450 20410 6148 8468 21370 26930 9246 39610 11720 5945 32250 157 13230 4098 12570 7968 18220 15950 18490 5214 18430 14080 37070 15150 7650 12100 15140 23010 6667 14570 3815 29690 8106 9376 5891 26950 8742 6824 10150 9143 2178 2504 33630 40990 7678 4576 6848 31540 7106 9099 57030 375 19230 17610 21280 7281 6307 6027 7709 9096 22640 2842 6396 9131 6401 24820 6903 6445 8026 11800 7644 10500 19150 20410 17880 29590 9081 10830 21810 10810 7509 7412 4890 29730 22800 26150 7159 5591 34520 6688 19450 15460 19060 15150 25570 7988 6852 5017 14530 12020 7690 4555 12390 8331 20270 10290 7016 7225 1664 35600 24450 7375 6481 8383 7054 37240 30780 29760 30640 23710 10780 9782 7422 9670 6097 10390 8440 1638 6533 11700 5997 11890 5779 8108 18640 41960 24310 6620 10560 32780 8399 10990 29230 8449 6844 13580 8069 13810 9910 7084 17190
2021-07-27 11490 8658 4084 7439 10950 5829 10710 8023 2538 17940 10990 11990 11380 14790 5098 26330 37130 28180 5650 20630 11500 10940 12760 17870 30370 26840 129800 9012 25570 14400 6522 7295 38100 6234 33650 9535 63980 13040 7686 34400 8569 13940 21790 46040 7270 30300 8365 11000 9940 13660 23860 14560 20200 8070 19030 8808 12320 29740 11030 11690 9912 9760 22330 2138 16550 16250 5966 11120 29040 29610 8201 6743 5917 11920 33470 3501 14850 392 5474 5163 6947 23490 3769 57110 32260 4228 10160 38010 11630 11400 12440 5561 5880 23930 4097 16240 33390 15950 8852 33420 5516 12820 37820 8974 3952 6385 7747 6309 11370 8568 5989 6246 7418 25140 11850 10700 7763 8244 3783 9518 33930 14920 7092 10000 7514 9629 6809 6514 7109 19140 11820 9568 4283 7238 22370 11380 59800 9418 5038 12110 7326 27560 9272 4283 27840 14710 6242 17730 6738 25460 9560 11220 24930 5997 12780 7705 8807 31000 8956 10310 7390 6468 32210 8034 7644 29630 10300 11670 4491 8902 2779 8044 20350 12150 7500 9017 25840 15150 45070 21700 32950 13510 90080 44260 6399 27510 8687 8724 9541 63350 24830 15960 4756 3943 75180 10220 30340 3794 5064 7046 20000 3402 4171 9549 14650 9365 18550 6549 25010 5757 4879 2446 12370 8277 10350 36650 11230 40670 12470 15400 8614 3545 7954 15930 8497 6899 29870 12320 3771 14530 20500 6173 8559 21500 27180 9333 39840 11810 5965 32480 160 13310 4113 12630 8013 18310 16170 18620 5240 18480 14140 37170 15300 7716 12170 15170 23060 6708 14720 3852 29880 8167 9460 5915 27140 8768 6867 10230 9173 2189 2518 33780 41070 7740 4619 6891 31760 7135 9207 57360 377 19320 17660 21420 7325 6346 6043 7731 9151 22720 2879 6434 9149 6456 24900 6957 6520 8086 11890 7746 10560 19500 20610 17950 29740 9131 10880 21930 10880 7573 7473 4925 29930 22940 26360 7198 5667 34960 6724 19490 15570 19080 15330 25690 8086 6882 5091 14590 12040 7778 4594 12430 8424 20370 10370 7047 7256 1664 35720 24620 7438 6531 8412 7135 37550 30900 29930 30860 23820 10890 9797 7451 9705 6114 10460 8468 1653 6568 11770 6043 11950 5836 8164 18680 42170 24460 6656 10580 33000 8466 11090 29260 8506 6866 13650 8124 13870 9990 7098 17350
2021-07-28 11540 8684 4102 7505 11010 5854 10800 8112 2556 18030 11030 12040 11440 14860 5164 26380 37260 28440 5673 20690 11590 10980 12870 17970 30720 27000 130400 9031 25650 14490 6532 7330 38220 6273 33930 9591 64140 13080 7719 34590 8609 13970 21920 46420 7287 30450 8393 11070 10000 13720 23940 14580 20320 8120 19100 8869 12370 29810 11090 11710 9928 9850 22540 2145 16650 16300 6016 11140 29160 29770 8281 6776 5936 11990 33650 3515 14890 392 5491 5238 6988 23820 3802 57310 32450 4280 10220 38240 11700 11510 12480 5597 5893 23980 4111 16270 33610 16100 8861 33630 5543 12890 38010 9001 3974 6476 7771 6332 11460 8621 6025 6270 7445 25220 11930 10750 7780 8305 3803 9547 34070 14950 7144 10080 7570 9673 6870 6534 7152 19250 11870 9636 4300 7297 22630 11450 60060 9470 5067 12160 7380 27720 9293 4305 27990 14780 6290 17830 6752 25520 9584 11320 25070 6048 12910 7745 8866 31150 9009 10390 7461 6538 32320 8069 7690 29760 10380 11720 4506 8918 2791 8105 20470 12230 7566 9063 26090 15190 45310 21810 33130 13590 90720 44430 6447 27620 8740 8773 9620 63660 24920 16070 4788 3984 75550 10290 30500 3827 5119 7055 20120 3443 4193 9621 14740 9440 18680 6589 25120 5772 4899 2468 12390 8298 10460 36830 11300 40820 12500 15530 8641 3595 7977 16150 8522 6938 29960 12390 3806 14630 20590 6198 8639 21630 27450 9410 40050 11890 5987 32680 163 13390 4127 12680 8048 18390 16400 18760 5265 18530 14200 37270 15440 7774 12240 15200 23110 6744 14860 3885 30040 8217 9528 5944 27320 8798 6907 10300 9200 2200 2534 33900 41190 7802 4655 6934 31950 7163 9299 57740 380 19420 17720 21590 7378 6378 6059 7755 9198 22810 2915 6466 9168 6507 24960 7008 6586 8141 11970 7829 10620 19770 20780 18000 29880 9177 10930 22060 10940 7634 7528 4953 30130 23080 26540 7251 5734 35350 6757 19530 15660 19090 15490 25820 8164 6910 5160 14650 12070 7855 4630 12470 8506 20460 10430 7081 7283 1664 35840 24790 7494 6580 8439 7204 37870 31060 30080 31060 23960 10990 9814 7479 9736 6136 10520 8504 1667 6595 11830 6084 12010 5889 8221 18730 42420 24640 6693 10590 33190 8523 11190 29320 8556 6897 13720 8175 13930 10070 7115 17480
2021-07-29 11590 8710 4119 7569 11050 5879 10900 8199 2574 18110 11060 12100 11490 14950 5227 26440 37390 28690 5697 20730 11680 11020 12980 18070 31070 27160 131100 9049 25730 14590 6542 7364 38360 6322 34180 9645 64300 13130 7748 34750 8649 14000 22070 46640 7307 30600 8421 11150 10050 13780 24030 14610 20440 8171 19160 8929 12420 29910 11150 11740 9944 9930 22740 2152 16760 16350 6065 11160 29280 29920 8359 6819 5955 12060 33770 3528 14930 392 5509 5311 7031 24120 3835 57500 32710 4331 10290 38460 11780 11650 12530 5632 5908 24030 4125 16300 33820 16230 8870 33870 5569 12950 38200 9027 3995 6564 7794 6356 11550 8674 6059 6294 7471 25300 11970 10800 7792 8367 3823 9577 34210 14990 7194 10170 7627 9710 6928 6553 7196 19350 11930 9705 4318 7355 22880 11530 60280 9522 5097 12220 7469 27870 9315 4326 28130 14850 6338 17940 6768 25580 9608 11420 25210 6103 13040 7786 8925 31290 9061 10470 7529 6605 32430 8103 7736 29890 10470 11780 4521 8940 2802 8165 20590 12310 7631 9101 26340 15240 45540 21910 33310 13670 91250 44620 6492 27710 8791 8822 9699 63960 25020 16180 4820 4023 75870 10360 30650 3860 5184 7064 20230 3486 4215 9691 14840 9514 18810 6627 25230 5788 4919 2490 12400 8333 10600 37010 11370 40970 12530 15660 8668 3639 8002 16360 8548 6978 30040 12460 3840 14760 20670 6223 8717 21760 27710 9484 40260 11970 6009 32870 165 13460 4141 12720 8080 18480 16660 18900 5289 18570 14260 37370 15570 7831 12310 15220 23150 6779 14980 3916 30220 8267 9591 5979 27500 8827 6946 10360 9227 2211 2550 34020 41250 7864 4688 6983 32130 7190 9387 58100 384 19550 17760 21750 7429 6409 6075 7780 9244 22890 2951 6496 9187 6557 25030 7056 6650 8195 12050 7906 10690 20030 20950 18050 30010 9222 10980 22170 11010 7695 7580 4980 30310 23220 26720 7283 5800 35710 6790 19570 15750 19110 15630 25870 8237 6937 5227 14740 12100 7931 4665 12510 8585 20550 10480 7115 7308 1664 35960 24930 7541 6628 8464 7272 38200 31220 30230 31260 24060 11090 9832 7508 9766 6161 10580 8550 1681 6621 11880 6124 12070 5941 8280 18810 42580 24780 6731 10620 33400 8577 11280 29390 8605 6935 13780 8225 13980 10140 7134 17600
2021-07-30 11620 8734 4135 7630 11060 5903 10990 8282 2591 18200 11100 12130 11530 15010 5284 26500 37490 28920 5722 20740 11770 11060 13050 18160 31410 27310 131500 9069 25780 14680 6552 7397 38450 6347 34420 9696 64470 13170 7781 34900 8687 14030 22170 46870 7313 30740 8449 11210 10090 13830 24100 14630 20560 8221 19230 8973 12480 29980 11200 11770 9963 10010 22930 2158 16860 16390 6114 11180 29340 30040 8431 6840 5976 12130 33870 3541 14980 394 5527 5377 7066 24370 3868 57690 32850 4376 10330 38660 11850 11730 12570 5666 5924 24060 4140 16350 34040 16360 8882 34010 5597 13010 38380 9052 4016 6644 7815 6381 11630 8725 6091 6318 7494 25380 12010 10830 7792 8427 3842 9606 34340 15000 7242 10250 7687 9757 6982 6568 7239 19440 11980 9759 4334 7414 23090 11600 60440 9579 5124 12270 7510 28020 9338 4344 28270 14920 6385 18040 6784 25640 9633 11510 25330 6138 13150 7819 8979 31420 9112 10540 7587 6662 32530 8135 7779 30000 10520 11810 4535 8961 2812 8221 20710 12380 7691 9123 26560 15290 45760 22010 33480 13730 91670 44760 6534 27780 8830 8869 9778 64220 25110 16250 4852 4058 76150 10420 30800 3890 5227 7073 20340 3515 4236 9757 14940 9588 18940 6661 25340 5804 4937 2511 12420 8342 10690 37190 11440 41110 12560 15790 8695 3671 8029 16550 8575 7016 30100 12520 3862 14840 20750 6248 8789 21860 27860 9554 40460 12040 6031 33020 167 13530 4155 12750 8107 18540 16840 19010 5313 18620 14320 37480 15710 7883 12370 15250 23190 6811 15100 3945 30350 8306 9647 5997 27660 8859 6984 10430 9252 2223 2566 34120 41280 7927 4717 7021 32300 7217 9468 58380 388 19640 17810 21830 7478 6436 6091 7806 9286 22980 2987 6520 9208 6606 25090 7093 6709 8246 12100 7957 10740 20250 21100 18100 30150 9265 11020 22250 11070 7755 7629 5004 30500 23360 26880 7319 5860 36020 6821 19610 15830 19130 15770 25940 8299 6962 5291 14780 12120 8002 4698 12550 8658 20610 10540 7152 7331 1669 36070 25050 7583 6675 8488 7333 38410 31350 30380 31440 24150 11180 9851 7536 9794 6188 10640 8573 1695 6646 11930 6161 12130 5991 8318 18840 42730 24910 6770 10640 33550 8627 11370 29420 8650 6951 13830 8274 14030 10210 7154 17710
2021-07-31 11670 8756 4152 7690 11110 5925 11080 8364 2608 18290 11130 12170 11570 15070 5338 26560 37640 29140 5746 20810 11850 11100 13130 18240 31740 27450 132000 9089 25820 14780 6561 7428 38530 6362 34650 9746 64650 13210 7806 35030 8724 14050 22270 47090 7353 30870 8476 11270 10130 13860 24170 14640 20690 8271 19300 9013 12500 30020 11260 11770 9982 10100 23110 2165 16970 16440 6162 11200 29470 30130 8500 6873 5996 12200 34030 3554 15020 397 5546 5442 7092 24540 3900 57890 32990 4420 10370 38860 11920 11780 12610 5700 5942 24140 4155 16400 34250 16450 8894 34140 5624 13060 38550 9077 4037 6721 7836 6406 11720 8776 6121 6341 7516 25470 12050 10880 7818 8487 3860 9636 34470 15060 7288 10320 7748 9775 7035 6589 7282 19530 12030 9780 4350 7473 23300 11670 60590 9628 5153 12320 7557 28160 9362 4361 28400 14990 6431 18140 6801 25700 9658 11600 25450 6171 13260 7841 9033 31550 9163 10600 7643 6717 32630 8165 7822 30090 10580 11840 4549 9002 2822 8276 20820 12450 7750 9142 26770 15340 45990 22110 33650 13780 92070 44880 6574 27890 8858 8915 9858 64420 25200 16310 4884 4091 76380 10480 30940 3919 5261 7083 20440 3529 4257 9821 15030 9661 19070 6693 25450 5820 4956 2531 12440 8387 10750 37370 11500 41240 12590 15920 8721 3709 8058 16740 8602 7054 30180 12590 3886 14910 20830 6273 8860 21950 27980 9622 40660 12120 6055 33150 169 13590 4168 12780 8133 18590 16930 19100 5336 18690 14390 37580 15840 7934 12440 15280 23210 6843 15210 3972 30450 8356 9699 6015 27830 8890 7021 10490 9277 2234 2583 34260 41410 7990 4745 7051 32460 7244 9545 58620 392 19710 17850 21920 7504 6462 6107 7832 9327 23070 3022 6540 9229 6655 25150 7129 6767 8296 12160 8015 10790 20460 21230 18150 30280 9308 11070 22330 11130 7814 7676 5027 30680 23500 27040 7355 5920 36170 6851 19650 15910 19150 15900 26040 8358 6987 5354 14840 12170 8071 4731 12580 8729 20690 10600 7190 7353 1677 36190 25150 7616 6722 8511 7394 38570 31450 30520 31630 24230 11260 9871 7565 9822 6217 10700 8614 1709 6671 11970 6199 12180 6040 8353 18910 42880 25060 6810 10660 33670 8674 11450 29510 8694 6990 13890 8323 14090 10280 7175 17810

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-25 to 2021-07-31

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-07-24 11328 8563 4029 7224 10778 5742 10404 7726 2479 17671 10916 11899 11147 14476 4866 26148 36673 27283 5582 20481 11186 10841 12384 17544 29224 26289 127660 8968 25284 14132 6485 7181 37690 6156 32692 9348 63518 12882 7593 33754 8435 13845 21256 44895 7256 29808 8282 10755 9679 13413 23447 14443 19836 7914 18833 8567 12174 29406 10827 11614 9875 9524 21613 2117 16205 16113 5814 11075 28752 29063 7922 6662 5870 11692 32626 3459 14733 388 5430 4966 6782 22656 3665 56505 31552 4047 9905 37262 11386 11035 12294 5444 5858 23824 4061 16184 32750 15456 8840 32531 5436 12570 37191 8887 3882 6073 7668 6243 11093 8402 5868 6168 7322 24921 11619 10566 7713 8053 3713 9432 33471 14813 6919 9711 7358 9451 6601 6444 6972 18751 11637 9290 4225 7055 21402 11140 58889 9194 4918 11938 7092 27035 9219 4205 27372 14484 6093 17387 6703 25315 9489 10890 24464 5743 12330 7555 8609 30504 8780 10033 7134 6212 31844 7916 7496 29174 9950 11412 4438 8859 2734 7836 19956 11915 7276 8882 24962 14992 44340 21326 32358 13109 87683 43550 6234 27155 8528 8564 9301 62062 24546 15538 4659 3797 73654 9955 29819 3679 4788 7023 19609 3271 4104 9310 14347 9128 18136 6406 24641 5721 4814 2369 12322 8228 9854 36064 10984 40178 12371 15010 8529 3337 7901 15177 8430 6773 29603 12123 3651 14210 20233 6095 8288 21043 26115 9074 39142 11540 5903 31589 150 13054 4066 12431 7880 18013 15415 18090 5164 18353 13954 36863 14856 7520 11946 15078 22927 6584 14256 3744 29113 7919 9211 5831 26571 8687 6741 10007 9082 2157 2473 33220 40741 7559 4488 6688 31099 7052 8886 56182 370 18959 17461 20870 7182 6231 5999 7671 8989 22478 2805 6283 9100 6292 24674 6748 6296 7909 11563 7326 10290 18481 19866 17762 29288 8981 10728 21457 10668 7382 7290 4821 29326 22524 25748 7050 5442 33180 6616 19385 15242 19054 14800 25272 7798 6793 4867 14339 11931 7518 4477 12303 8148 20023 10134 6964 7164 1654 35338 23976 7207 6382 8325 6896 36443 30519 29416 30204 23402 10560 9758 7365 9603 6062 10254 8334 1607 6469 11557 5908 11755 5665 7951 18581 41355 23896 6549 10531 32104 8269 10774 29193 8339 6795 13434 7959 13690 9757 7055 16880
2021-07-25 11370 8600 4073 7293 10840 5761 10500 7811 2496 17760 11000 11960 11190 14550 4908 26230 36860 27490 5612 20580 11250 10920 12490 17630 29630 26430 128200 9019 25340 14250 6492 7221 37790 6184 32940 9403 63850 12950 7624 33900 8484 13870 21400 45270 7292 30000 8337 10820 9740 13470 23550 14470 19950 7962 18960 8628 12210 29480 10880 11630 9930 9610 21780 2125 16290 16220 5858 11110 28880 29200 7989 6714 5918 11760 32770 3470 14830 393 5471 5002 6817 22920 3694 56810 31750 4083 9970 37460 11450 11120 12370 5483 5886 23900 4098 16280 32970 15590 8870 32730 5466 12590 37320 8911 3907 6144 7686 6281 11170 8453 5896 6213 7342 25090 11670 10620 7745 8107 3730 9492 33600 14880 6951 9770 7421 9489 6646 6472 7017 18830 11680 9342 4250 7102 21570 11220 59050 9258 4957 11990 7154 27160 9270 4219 27520 14540 6157 17490 6745 25430 9536 10970 24560 5798 12410 7587 8655 30630 8837 10100 7187 6256 31980 7975 7526 29290 10030 11450 4451 8898 2741 7892 20080 11970 7327 8928 25170 15070 44530 21420 32510 13180 88190 43710 6267 27300 8573 8612 9386 62320 24620 15640 4691 3822 73930 10030 29960 3707 4849 7028 19710 3304 4132 9371 14440 9198 18340 6427 24770 5765 4829 2388 12330 8290 9930 36240 11050 40300 12400 15130 8553 3405 7941 15350 8471 6808 29700 12200 3678 14350 20340 6138 8350 21160 26330 9143 39340 11590 5927 31800 152 13120 4080 12470 7907 18090 15650 18200 5188 18430 14010 36960 15040 7569 12010 15110 22960 6611 14330 3769 29240 7987 9248 5843 26720 8750 6779 10080 9119 2169 2489 33380 40870 7620 4515 6741 31210 7101 8964 56530 373 19070 17510 21000 7214 6254 6031 7734 9028 22700 2836 6315 9143 6333 24750 6802 6360 7971 11650 7401 10350 18670 20040 17880 29410 9026 10820 21570 10730 7426 7337 4837 29460 22710 25890 7090 5494 33510 6644 19480 15300 19090 14910 25410 7832 6835 4924 14420 12000 7590 4506 12330 8215 20110 10230 7023 7179 1680 35480 24080 7249 6407 8344 6950 36640 30640 29540 30330 23530 10640 9810 7401 9650 6087 10320 8405 1624 6493 11600 5939 11800 5709 8002 18670 41570 24090 6595 10600 32250 8310 10860 29240 8400 6834 13470 8007 13770 9840 7095 16970
2021-07-26 11440 8663 4125 7417 10950 5792 10610 7903 2515 17850 11140 12070 11270 14660 4979 26330 37130 27780 5664 20720 11400 11070 12650 17750 30060 26620 129100 9100 25440 14410 6503 7280 38010 6226 33230 9511 64320 13040 7657 34110 8548 13920 21600 45750 7358 30280 8425 10910 9850 13550 23720 14500 20080 8016 19120 8706 12260 29570 10970 11650 10010 9690 22040 2138 16400 16370 5916 11160 29110 29450 8093 6791 5990 11840 33000 3484 14970 395 5536 5117 6871 23270 3735 57380 32090 4149 10060 37730 11570 11250 12480 5528 5927 24050 4149 16380 33310 15750 8912 33030 5498 12650 37560 8944 3934 6250 7714 6336 11290 8532 5935 6268 7381 25360 11740 10720 7801 8200 3753 9577 33760 14990 7012 9870 7489 9545 6719 6510 7056 18970 11740 9409 4314 7179 21870 11330 59330 9354 5022 12060 7266 27330 9335 4240 27740 14610 6251 17630 6806 25570 9594 11090 24690 5877 12570 7628 8728 30810 8915 10200 7273 6326 32180 8059 7590 29440 10140 11510 4474 8954 2750 7961 20260 12060 7410 8982 25460 15180 44820 21540 32740 13280 88930 43930 6322 27490 8650 8669 9467 62670 24720 15750 4734 3873 74360 10120 30150 3753 4937 7040 19860 3355 4171 9468 14510 9261 18610 6475 24950 5818 4852 2411 12340 8388 10060 36520 11160 40470 12430 15260 8576 3501 8032 15600 8558 6855 29860 12300 3719 14520 20530 6200 8437 21310 26660 9230 39580 11720 5957 32050 155 13190 4100 12530 7962 18180 16020 18360 5224 18520 14100 37070 15350 7640 12100 15180 23010 6649 14490 3802 29490 8069 9318 5882 26940 8828 6825 10200 9169 2185 2512 33630 41110 7710 4549 6804 31430 7173 9079 56990 378 19240 17570 21240 7257 6289 6080 7805 9099 23070 2884 6364 9207 6406 24860 6872 6436 8041 11750 7530 10430 18960 20260 18040 29610 9088 10950 21710 10820 7504 7403 4869 29690 23030 26090 7147 5574 33920 6679 19630 15410 19130 15090 25630 7908 6898 5008 14570 12120 7697 4546 12370 8310 20230 10330 7139 7206 1715 35650 24250 7321 6459 8372 7023 36990 30830 29710 30630 23720 10750 9880 7466 9730 6113 10410 8488 1645 6519 11670 5986 11870 5771 8069 18810 41860 24290 6651 10690 32510 8375 10980 29390 8504 6904 13530 8073 13900 9960 7162 17120
2021-07-27 11490 8721 4170 7523 11030 5820 10720 7990 2532 17940 11250 12130 11340 14740 5040 26420 37340 28040 5705 20860 11530 11200 12790 17860 30480 26780 129900 9172 25520 14560 6512 7334 38180 6266 33560 9601 64740 13110 7689 34290 8606 13970 21780 46210 7409 30530 8494 10990 9950 13620 23870 14520 20200 8069 19270 8776 12310 29660 11050 11660 10080 9780 22270 2150 16500 16510 5971 11200 29330 29640 8184 6859 6054 11920 33190 3497 15110 397 5596 5209 6921 23580 3773 57880 32410 4207 10130 37980 11680 11370 12570 5568 5967 24190 4194 16480 33620 15910 8952 33270 5530 12700 37740 8975 3960 6344 7743 6385 11400 8604 5974 6319 7417 25600 11810 10810 7844 8281 3774 9654 33920 15090 7058 9950 7557 9591 6784 6549 7093 19090 11800 9471 4365 7248 22130 11430 59570 9436 5076 12130 7357 27480 9394 4259 27930 14680 6337 17760 6861 25720 9649 11180 24800 5946 12710 7669 8791 30950 8981 10290 7346 6385 32360 8135 7647 29570 10240 11560 4493 9001 2759 8025 20430 12130 7486 9028 25700 15270 45060 21640 32950 13370 89550 44110 6370 27660 8722 8723 9547 62980 24820 15870 4775 3914 74730 10200 30330 3793 5011 7051 19990 3399 4208 9552 14590 9322 18850 6513 25110 5866 4870 2433 12350 8480 10170 36770 11250 40620 12470 15390 8599 3586 8119 15820 8631 6898 30000 12400 3750 14660 20720 6255 8511 21450 26920 9308 39800 11820 5985 32290 158 13260 4119 12580 8007 18260 16330 18480 5257 18610 14180 37180 15620 7704 12190 15230 23060 6684 14600 3834 29670 8142 9376 5915 27150 8902 6863 10300 9208 2200 2532 33870 41300 7793 4580 6853 31600 7240 9180 57420 383 19390 17630 21470 7296 6320 6124 7873 9162 23390 2928 6405 9261 6471 24950 6931 6504 8105 11840 7646 10490 19210 20460 18180 29800 9141 11070 21840 10900 7576 7462 4895 29900 23290 26230 7199 5651 34290 6712 19760 15510 19170 15240 25830 7968 6952 5075 14690 12220 7794 4583 12400 8396 20330 10440 7230 7228 1740 35800 24380 7385 6504 8398 7088 37270 30990 29860 30870 23880 10850 9950 7525 9790 6141 10490 8551 1665 6549 11740 6029 11920 5820 8128 18940 42110 24480 6704 10760 32710 8424 11080 29530 8587 6962 13590 8130 14010 10070 7225 17240
2021-07-28 11540 8774 4212 7618 11120 5846 10830 8077 2549 18020 11370 12210 11400 14830 5096 26510 37560 28290 5747 20990 11640 11330 12930 17960 30880 26940 130700 9240 25590 14710 6521 7391 38340 6307 33850 9687 65150 13190 7723 34480 8660 14010 21960 46660 7461 30770 8560 11070 10030 13680 23990 14550 20330 8125 19410 8845 12360 29740 11120 11680 10120 9870 22480 2161 16590 16630 6025 11250 29550 29840 8270 6923 6115 12000 33380 3510 15240 400 5654 5300 6965 23900 3810 58310 32690 4261 10190 38210 11780 11480 12660 5608 6009 24320 4235 16580 33940 16070 8991 33520 5560 12750 37920 9001 3985 6432 7770 6436 11500 8671 6012 6375 7451 25830 11870 10900 7886 8357 3795 9728 34070 15170 7094 10040 7625 9637 6845 6586 7129 19210 11850 9530 4409 7310 22350 11520 59800 9510 5128 12190 7441 27620 9450 4276 28120 14740 6418 17890 6913 25850 9703 11280 24910 6006 12830 7708 8851 31090 9047 10370 7413 6443 32520 8206 7702 29710 10330 11610 4512 9046 2767 8085 20590 12210 7556 9083 25930 15360 45280 21750 33170 13450 90150 44280 6414 27840 8790 8776 9626 63280 24910 15990 4815 3954 75100 10280 30490 3830 5078 7061 20110 3441 4244 9630 14670 9390 19090 6548 25260 5913 4890 2451 12360 8565 10260 37020 11340 40770 12500 15520 8623 3663 8199 16010 8700 6940 30130 12490 3784 14810 20880 6306 8583 21590 27180 9383 40010 11880 6013 32510 160 13330 4137 12620 8050 18330 16630 18610 5291 18700 14250 37280 15860 7766 12280 15280 23110 6717 14710 3865 29830 8209 9427 5949 27340 8973 6903 10400 9244 2216 2550 34080 41480 7881 4609 6900 31760 7304 9275 57850 388 19530 17680 21700 7337 6348 6169 7942 9218 23700 2971 6444 9316 6530 25050 6987 6570 8169 11930 7746 10550 19430 20640 18320 29990 9192 11180 21960 10980 7640 7518 4921 30100 23530 26380 7257 5722 34630 6748 19880 15600 19200 15390 26030 8025 7004 5142 14810 12310 7886 4618 12430 8478 20430 10530 7334 7247 1764 35960 24520 7445 6549 8424 7146 37540 31160 30030 31110 24050 10940 10010 7580 9850 6172 10560 8621 1683 6576 11800 6070 11980 5871 8189 19070 42320 24690 6757 10840 32890 8473 11170 29650 8666 7018 13650 8187 14110 10180 7287 17350
2021-07-29 11600 8823 4253 7722 11190 5872 10940 8162 2566 18100 11490 12290 11460 14920 5151 26600 37780 28520 5791 21110 11780 11460 13110 18060 31260 27090 131500 9306 25670 14860 6529 7446 38510 6352 34130 9779 65560 13260 7754 34660 8713 14060 22150 47050 7514 31000 8634 11140 10120 13750 24110 14570 20460 8180 19550 8915 12410 29830 11210 11690 10160 9960 22690 2172 16700 16750 6077 11290 29780 30070 8354 6987 6179 12090 33570 3524 15370 403 5711 5424 7012 24210 3847 58790 33030 4318 10280 38440 11870 11630 12750 5647 6051 24440 4282 16680 34270 16230 9029 33780 5588 12810 38110 9027 4009 6521 7793 6488 11600 8741 6051 6438 7483 26070 11940 10980 7932 8451 3814 9800 34210 15260 7145 10130 7693 9680 6906 6625 7165 19320 11910 9591 4461 7383 22590 11610 60000 9580 5181 12250 7547 27770 9503 4293 28300 14800 6498 18010 6963 25990 9755 11390 25030 6072 12960 7746 8908 31240 9100 10450 7476 6498 32680 8272 7761 29850 10430 11660 4533 9098 2774 8144 20740 12280 7625 9144 26170 15440 45540 21850 33420 13520 90820 44490 6456 28000 8863 8827 9706 63590 24990 16110 4854 4007 75450 10360 30640 3865 5154 7071 20230 3481 4280 9705 14750 9452 19310 6583 25400 5957 4911 2471 12370 8658 10390 37300 11430 40920 12530 15650 8648 3737 8275 16200 8767 6982 30270 12580 3817 14980 21060 6355 8655 21720 27450 9457 40230 11990 6041 32730 162 13390 4154 12660 8089 18420 16970 18740 5331 18780 14330 37390 16130 7826 12380 15340 23160 6750 14830 3895 30020 8275 9482 5991 27550 9044 6949 10500 9281 2230 2569 34290 41640 7971 4638 6954 31930 7366 9366 58280 394 19700 17720 21910 7377 6375 6210 8009 9273 24020 3013 6484 9382 6598 25140 7043 6633 8230 12010 7843 10610 19670 20830 18450 30200 9246 11290 22090 11050 7713 7573 4947 30320 23800 26520 7307 5787 34960 6790 20000 15690 19240 15550 26160 8086 7063 5213 14940 12390 7974 4655 12460 8559 20520 10620 7462 7265 1788 36130 24660 7503 6600 8448 7214 37840 31310 30180 31400 24190 11030 10080 7637 9920 6203 10640 8713 1701 6605 11870 6109 12040 5930 8253 19200 42540 24890 6809 10910 33140 8528 11270 29790 8761 7076 13700 8240 14220 10280 7344 17480
2021-07-30 11650 8870 4301 7823 11270 5897 11040 8247 2582 18180 11600 12370 11530 15010 5204 26690 38030 28750 5832 21230 11930 11600 13290 18170 31650 27240 132400 9379 25750 15020 6537 7508 38720 6394 34420 9879 66010 13340 7790 34850 8766 14110 22310 47470 7579 31220 8717 11220 10210 13810 24230 14600 20600 8234 19690 8987 12460 29920 11300 11710 10220 10050 22910 2183 16790 16890 6130 11330 30010 30290 8445 7048 6239 12180 33790 3538 15490 406 5767 5525 7057 24520 3883 59350 33320 4376 10370 38660 11960 11740 12840 5681 6094 24570 4324 16790 34550 16390 9068 34040 5617 12870 38320 9052 4033 6598 7820 6545 11690 8823 6085 6475 7513 26290 12000 11060 7981 8556 3834 9870 34360 15350 7197 10210 7761 9728 6967 6661 7201 19420 11970 9647 4517 7446 22840 11690 60240 9661 5242 12310 7648 27910 9555 4310 28490 14860 6576 18140 7013 26130 9809 11500 25140 6137 13100 7787 8962 31400 9159 10530 7537 6551 32840 8336 7840 29980 10530 11710 4551 9153 2781 8202 20900 12360 7701 9203 26410 15530 45800 21950 33670 13610 91450 44700 6497 28180 8939 8878 9785 63900 25080 16230 4894 4054 75820 10440 30820 3899 5229 7080 20350 3520 4316 9798 14830 9503 19520 6619 25550 6002 4933 2493 12380 8752 10510 37540 11510 41070 12560 15780 8671 3808 8383 16420 8851 7023 30410 12670 3848 15130 21270 6403 8738 21860 27700 9529 40460 12140 6069 32940 163 13460 4172 12710 8125 18490 17290 18890 5360 18880 14410 37490 16390 7885 12480 15400 23210 6782 14960 3926 30220 8338 9540 6031 27770 9114 6985 10610 9335 2244 2590 34490 41830 8047 4665 7007 32110 7428 9457 58700 400 19850 17780 22120 7419 6402 6250 8082 9338 24350 3055 6519 9450 6657 25240 7102 6703 8289 12100 7947 10680 19870 21030 18570 30420 9294 11390 22200 11130 7786 7627 4971 30520 24090 26640 7363 5860 35280 6836 20140 15780 19270 15720 26350 8147 7115 5283 15080 12490 8060 4693 12490 8638 20630 10720 7572 7283 1822 36290 24800 7567 6656 8472 7281 38100 31500 30350 31740 24370 11120 10140 7698 10000 6235 10720 8796 1719 6629 11930 6149 12100 5988 8315 19330 42770 25120 6858 10980 33370 8582 11380 29950 8858 7137 13750 8309 14320 10380 7411 17600
2021-07-31 11690 8911 4341 7913 11350 5921 11150 8333 2598 18260 11730 12440 11600 15100 5256 26780 38260 28980 5863 21370 12040 11720 13450 18270 32050 27380 133100 9445 25810 15160 6545 7568 38870 6425 34740 9960 66390 13410 7821 35030 8818 14150 22480 47940 7641 31450 8791 11300 10300 13870 24350 14620 20710 8288 19820 9055 12510 29980 11380 11730 10290 10140 23110 2193 16870 17010 6187 11370 30220 30460 8526 7109 6295 12260 33940 3551 15630 410 5824 5631 7100 24800 3920 59790 33600 4426 10450 38890 12070 11830 12920 5722 6138 24730 4364 16890 34870 16550 9106 34280 5646 12910 38490 9073 4057 6689 7842 6593 11790 8889 6118 6530 7542 26550 12060 11160 8035 8634 3853 9941 34500 15450 7247 10290 7830 9766 7031 6702 7236 19510 12020 9698 4570 7513 23040 11780 60390 9735 5297 12370 7736 28040 9607 4326 28670 14920 6655 18270 7062 26250 9861 11590 25260 6196 13210 7823 9027 31520 9221 10610 7597 6598 33030 8416 7901 30100 10620 11760 4568 9206 2788 8260 21050 12440 7776 9238 26600 15620 46040 22050 33910 13690 91970 44880 6542 28350 8999 8927 9865 64190 25170 16350 4933 4092 76190 10520 30990 3933 5298 7091 20470 3556 4353 9875 14910 9555 19800 6648 25700 6046 4949 2511 12390 8848 10600 37770 11590 41220 12600 15910 8694 3890 8465 16590 8924 7064 30510 12760 3882 15260 21450 6451 8801 21980 27900 9601 40660 12230 6097 33150 165 13520 4190 12750 8155 18560 17580 19010 5392 18960 14480 37600 16630 7944 12590 15430 23250 6814 15100 3956 30380 8408 9583 6062 27970 9185 7020 10700 9370 2261 2611 34740 42040 8143 4691 7057 32270 7489 9546 59090 405 19980 17820 22360 7449 6429 6298 8140 9399 24680 3097 6558 9510 6715 25310 7160 6766 8347 12180 8078 10750 20060 21240 18700 30580 9340 11500 22310 11210 7848 7681 4992 30710 24390 26810 7418 5933 35570 6863 20260 15880 19300 15850 26550 8197 7163 5353 15200 12600 8151 4727 12510 8717 20720 10810 7708 7297 1849 36430 24920 7630 6698 8498 7330 38290 31640 30510 31970 24520 11200 10200 7750 10070 6267 10800 8864 1737 6653 12000 6188 12150 6033 8376 19460 43010 25330 6908 11050 33560 8622 11460 30100 8949 7195 13810 8367 14410 10490 7490 17700

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.