COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-08-01 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-08-01

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-08-01

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-06-2312-272021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-06-232021-07-182021-07-1807-212021-03-252021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-082021-07-042021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-182021-07-0712-292021-07-0712-272021-07-0712-072021-07-072021-05-102021-07-062021-01-012021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-202021-07-182021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-0512-302021-07-062021-06-272021-07-072021-06-222021-07-082021-07-072021-06-212021-06-292021-07-062021-07-092021-07-0712-222021-07-0710-282021-07-062021-07-06 --2021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-06-222021-06-202021-07-062021-07-212021-07-062021-07-062021-07-182021-07-072021-07-062021-07-022021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-042021-07-082021-07-062021-07-062021-01-022021-07-0612-212021-07-072021-07-202021-07-122021-07-0712-222021-06-212021-07-0607-212021-07-082021-07-062021-06-212021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-06-132021-07-062021-06-222021-07-062021-07-062021-07-082021-07-072021-07-062021-07-022021-07-062021-07-112021-07-072021-07-042021-07-072021-07-202021-06-252021-07-082021-07-1112-222021-06-232021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-042021-06-302021-07-0610-042021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-06-242021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-092021-07-072021-07-042021-06-242021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-032021-06-212021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-112021-07-062021-06-2312-212021-07-0712-212021-07-072021-07-072021-07-092021-07-082021-07-062021-07-102021-07-082021-07-0712-272021-07-072021-07-082021-07-042021-01-032021-07-032021-07-072021-07-062021-07-212021-07-1812-262021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-06-282021-07-182021-07-112021-06-292021-07-0712-082021-07-072021-07-062021-07-202021-07-062021-07-202021-07-192021-07-072021-06-242021-07-072021-07-0712-062021-07-042021-07-212021-07-072021-07-062021-06-292021-07-062021-07-212021-07-072021-07-2007-212021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-07-07 --10-042021-07-052021-07-182021-07-072021-06-302021-07-052021-07-072021-07-182021-07-042021-07-212021-07-072021-07-082021-07-062021-07-0507-212021-06-222021-07-072021-06-252021-06-232021-07-202021-07-072021-01-012021-07-052021-01-042021-07-072021-07-122021-07-062021-07-082021-07-0710-042021-07-0512-272021-07-072021-07-062021-07-042021-07-072021-06-282021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-062021-07-0612-232021-07-072021-06-232021-07-062021-07-082021-07-0707-212021-07-072021-07-082021-07-062021-07-2112-292021-07-062021-07-0612-282021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-0410-042021-07-122021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-0512-272021-06-272021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-06-202021-07-062021-07-062021-07-052021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-192021-07-072021-07-072021-06-232021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-06-212021-07-202021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-0712-062021-07-212021-07-072021-06-282021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-07-072021-07-052021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-192021-07-072021-07-0712-1310-042021-07-07 --2021-06-242021-07-052021-07-132021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-06-282021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-06-272021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-04
Peak daily increment 139 102 49 105 98 85 106 97 115 106 124 89 61 100 55 89 249 270 45 128 146 139 200 99 400 171 1249 67 157 151 95 59 208 40 484 103 461 98 51 173 63 51 221 581 57 248 91 68 93 122 159 32 150 61 149 65 61 94 109 24 95 107 218 41 113 163 69 261 237 78 66 65 116 457 20 139 6 64 110 45 313 38 602 352 50 101 223 116 131 85 52 86 246 45 170 385 159 39 263 119 187 185 296 49 86 77 60 121 87 112 62 67 287 70 83 59 85 21 81 140 101 55 103 119 82 62 38 94 241 58 65 53 78 272 121 631 92 53 60 106 157 67 23 221 75 77 151 54 146 60 111 137 63 143 44 61 144 79 80 71 88 194 76 82 131 98 73 74 54 18 58 184 80 64 68 237 90 261 311 299 104 675 284 49 207 80 111 92 727 105 113 38 45 431 77 162 39 66 105 120 41 38 95 121 85 260 97 187 47 62 30 24 90 111 384 102 156 35 148 186 69 90 226 74 389 93 36 190 227 72 94 126 306 87 253 141 30 241 3 136 22 54 118 93 327 203 40 102 80 120 287 53 109 150 56 52 135 71 206 71 70 46 201 79 46 110 65 18 21 249 249 91 83 55 195 63 92 476 24 169 57 266 61 42 48 68 69 324 43 38 65 64 460 56 66 75 86 101 102 300 189 146 242 67 120 134 83 73 54 43 233 329 235 74 63 413 55 142 97 46 146 210 83 56 72 131 110 86 38 41 76 98 99 127 101 36 223 184 57 62 27 76 340 187 153 302 191 103 72 67 82 37 97 84 29 79 91 104 61 65 131 360 316 58 79 244 55 89 176 92 59 63 71 116 114 70 136
Days since peak 39 217 25 26 26 39 14 14 376 129 25 26 26 25 26 24 24 28 25 26 25 26 26 25 14 25 215 25 217 25 237 25 83 26 212 25 25 26 12 14 25 26 25 25 26 26 25 25 27 214 26 35 25 40 24 25 41 33 26 23 25 222 25 277 26 26 26 25 26 26 25 26 26 40 42 26 11 26 26 14 25 26 30 25 25 25 25 25 28 24 26 26 211 26 223 25 12 20 25 222 41 26 376 24 26 41 26 25 25 49 26 40 26 26 24 25 26 30 26 21 25 28 25 12 37 24 21 222 39 26 25 25 28 32 26 301 25 25 24 26 25 25 38 25 26 24 25 24 25 26 25 23 25 28 38 25 25 24 25 29 41 25 25 26 21 26 39 223 25 223 25 25 23 24 26 22 24 25 217 25 24 28 210 29 25 26 11 14 218 25 25 25 25 34 14 21 33 25 236 25 26 12 26 12 13 25 38 25 25 238 28 11 25 26 33 26 11 25 12 376 25 25 27 25 301 27 14 25 32 27 25 14 28 11 25 24 26 27 376 40 25 37 39 12 25 212 27 209 25 20 26 24 25 301 27 217 25 26 28 25 34 25 26 26 25 26 25 25 26 24 26 26 221 25 39 26 24 25 376 25 24 26 11 215 26 26 216 26 25 25 26 28 301 20 26 26 25 27 217 35 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 42 26 26 27 25 25 27 25 26 25 13 25 25 39 25 25 25 26 25 41 12 25 26 25 25 238 11 25 34 25 25 27 25 27 25 25 26 26 24 25 25 25 13 25 25 231 301 25 38 27 19 25 26 24 24 25 34 25 25 25 26 26 35 25 25 26 24 28
Last total 11688 8826 4223 7445 11082 5846 11077 8310 2503 18521 11348 12394 11428 14884 5071 26722 37808 28197 5802 20935 11583 11321 13087 18082 31370 27004 131739 9363 25551 14907 6566 7489 38350 6367 34956 9679 65371 13238 7955 34850 8623 14127 22620 47021 7635 30744 8595 11052 10057 13745 24051 14667 20771 8383 19535 8817 12592 29917 11027 11807 10098 10200 22479 2200 16739 16599 6243 11417 29828 30080 8220 7056 6101 12023 33394 3530 15281 413 5791 5189 7044 24261 3848 58153 32721 4195 10264 38396 11801 11466 12642 5662 6269 24548 4264 17003 34054 16668 9089 33560 5550 12823 38363 9038 4093 6550 7830 6481 11724 8833 6046 6450 7437 26138 11969 11209 7900 8526 3776 9813 34242 15218 7122 10088 8192 9620 6939 6620 7402 19262 11983 9503 4389 7337 22120 11608 60113 9645 5147 12248 7390 27944 9547 4368 28294 14895 6363 18161 6980 26161 9787 11372 25296 5990 12682 7793 8944 31256 9093 10379 7427 6463 32699 8275 7860 29961 10422 11613 4619 9204 2822 8093 20758 12358 7675 9111 26534 15463 45927 21975 33541 13475 91084 44929 6488 28124 8782 9385 9918 64066 25181 15957 4784 3922 75800 10502 30812 3779 5028 7121 20195 3524 4330 9731 15141 9635 18908 6557 25513 5895 4935 2428 12524 8722 10388 37225 11285 41258 12624 15956 8779 3603 8275 15972 8795 7323 30356 12713 3906 14760 21030 6295 8645 21819 27121 9723 40546 11925 6068 32481 146 13546 4185 12684 8037 18740 16716 18832 5397 18830 14401 37768 15492 7767 12316 15368 23232 6710 14831 3907 29853 8126 9376 6001 27646 9004 6956 10570 9277 2295 2571 34407 41955 7911 4445 6975 32019 7336 9215 59372 373 19521 17818 21726 7617 6399 6184 8083 9282 23501 3044 6450 9482 6502 25449 7245 6521 8188 11862 7626 10621 19091 21003 18295 30360 9267 11092 22198 10962 7604 7548 4967 30290 23496 26432 7366 5782 34180 6800 19911 15520 19389 15617 25987 8026 7027 5319 14803 12261 7838 4736 12622 8447 20558 10482 7608 7303 1868 36343 24713 7551 6652 8468 7191 37895 31426 30297 31300 24182 10894 10077 7629 9952 6310 10603 8706 1703 6670 11978 6247 12119 5903 8322 19325 42316 25358 6870 10910 33189 8507 11224 30043 8636 7124 13758 8331 14158 10163 7329 17492
Last daily increment 22 19 15 22 21 13 70 58 3 99 50 51 25 46 17 65 108 93 22 53 52 54 70 44 191 57 461 32 23 80 8 36 58 27 212 31 172 38 42 89 16 20 145 196 39 84 33 30 38 29 56 19 89 59 59 27 38 50 20 19 21 63 78 11 45 47 48 34 96 104 37 40 19 27 100 8 40 4 29 25 13 182 20 131 109 20 39 112 40 36 23 22 31 75 20 89 120 107 18 107 24 25 113 26 25 54 21 25 53 51 10 28 11 107 42 64 13 52 8 47 81 35 23 51 88 15 32 24 43 63 35 17 12 29 42 58 97 55 27 29 25 86 33 5 103 46 26 58 29 79 30 65 86 25 36 20 42 79 26 39 28 28 89 34 43 69 59 22 9 37 6 17 65 35 46 21 189 48 169 60 89 26 326 136 15 92 27 70 78 202 55 37 14 16 180 56 104 10 23 11 63 21 20 42 76 45 43 17 84 17 12 12 24 56 53 115 27 90 25 79 29 29 31 71 33 51 75 72 24 46 67 12 32 92 93 65 123 37 22 74 0 50 11 29 13 74 132 87 10 51 46 89 67 28 38 26 22 13 40 15 60 20 17 9 102 37 27 59 16 10 10 110 116 28 17 32 94 40 23 305 5 64 37 67 47 8 10 45 34 103 24 22 42 16 86 57 20 27 28 24 38 50 116 52 85 19 26 69 25 14 25 16 109 78 64 32 28 96 25 62 32 32 85 71 32 24 48 53 31 27 25 26 25 44 38 65 12 26 84 71 29 24 21 41 143 86 75 108 93 28 41 28 24 34 24 38 7 19 37 24 37 23 45 57 93 158 25 50 105 36 45 101 30 33 33 29 56 32 31 69
Last week 248 198 145 150 231 96 521 431 58 675 298 358 220 318 148 405 800 654 149 333 287 348 506 382 1609 513 2961 285 185 532 46 245 452 150 1778 243 1345 259 304 799 129 187 1088 1635 311 680 210 228 297 236 424 155 699 373 501 179 306 372 136 135 151 515 615 53 418 340 333 236 772 755 226 295 179 238 613 66 401 22 222 159 187 1219 124 1132 846 110 294 845 292 305 259 166 248 545 154 665 907 931 174 729 173 179 845 109 167 355 136 179 484 328 129 203 98 905 275 527 133 355 45 280 545 279 134 288 627 146 267 133 349 470 213 155 117 204 521 339 809 307 182 211 213 650 231 102 702 299 185 568 217 604 191 351 594 176 231 169 251 520 215 237 211 173 604 288 283 553 349 131 140 255 57 171 575 327 303 177 1192 357 1220 487 882 254 2569 1010 186 710 179 652 463 1472 440 273 83 89 1549 413 731 75 177 66 433 184 179 312 593 395 522 125 668 132 95 63 141 383 389 845 205 784 192 716 185 193 275 599 275 454 551 444 195 370 546 133 264 580 699 529 1047 257 130 623 0 357 85 176 117 580 939 565 145 354 338 673 434 189 266 197 210 89 398 115 494 151 115 119 810 238 162 412 142 104 71 864 876 243 98 216 701 226 247 2505 14 422 249 626 327 124 129 324 216 711 186 134 307 146 565 402 169 219 215 225 234 430 864 380 763 196 264 517 207 150 189 105 702 673 447 248 265 710 145 396 179 233 604 490 169 182 348 319 218 238 192 241 212 379 239 505 98 140 740 529 281 196 99 216 1042 659 630 789 571 243 215 194 250 194 252 273 75 144 303 259 286 160 289 518 664 1051 237 275 780 199 325 640 215 235 215 285 339 294 206 438
Previous peak date07-2107-2112-2712-2612-2707-2112-2112-26 --12-2112-2112-2712-0712-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1111-0212-2110-0712-2211-0212-2710-1310-13 --2021-01-0710-1511-1311-0212-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2811-0212-2512-2112-2612-2212-3009-2710-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2110-1012-21 --11-0212-2212-2812-2512-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-3007-2107-2112-26 --12-2912-2612-2712-2112-2411-0212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-2810-272021-02-2510-0110-1412-2712-0712-2607-2107-2112-27 --12-2412-2907-2112-2412-2111-0907-2112-2607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-06 --07-2112-2312-27 --07-2112-2512-2512-2510-1710-2912-2607-2112-2112-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-2712-2812-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-2212-2907-2112-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0107-2112-2806-1112-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2210-2709-2912-292021-01-0611-0211-0212-2112-2712-2711-0212-2109-2812-2712-2212-2112-3111-022021-01-0212-22 --2021-01-07 --12-2112-2112-2112-2212-2112-2112-3107-2112-2212-27 --07-2112-0712-2812-2911-0211-0312-2712-0612-27 --12-0810-1410-2612-2612-2107-2111-0112-2112-3011-0412-2111-0312-2712-212021-01-0111-0212-2911-0210-22 --12-2712-2812-2607-212021-01-0611-0211-0212-0611-0212-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2207-2112-0610-1112-2112-2710-1912-1310-1112-1310-1812-3012-2810-1312-252021-01-262021-01-0211-0212-2910-3107-2112-2112-2812-2912-2211-02 --12-3012-2512-2512-2107-2112-2212-2110-2512-26 --2021-01-0412-2211-0907-2112-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2810-2412-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-2712-2207-2112-2812-2711-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2510-182021-01-0212-2612-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-2112-2212-2212-27 -- --12-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-20 --07-2111-0212-0707-2112-2212-2812-2210-1612-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-2712-3112-2812-2512-3112-2112-3012-2611-02
Previous peak daily increment 605 366 61 88 97 285 134 73 260 170 110 176 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 128 109 277 233 262 426 1200 75 166 98 58 234 50 355 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 1167 107 508 94 186 62 72 160 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 60 303 292 268 58 197 249 283 59 91 71 65 1221 82 243 35 53 94 288 34 551 288 38 181 598 151 69 189 72 58 164 27 206 248 187 118 322 216 684 536 60 52 370 76 160 106 184 51 226 206 102 163 146 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 457 90 74 661 150 125 54 42 127 82 1697 92 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 218 59 201 57 401 172 103 338 103 106 136 120 476 101 159 52 139 442 57 115 452 143 83 239 134 44 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 153 428 107 1522 469 104 457 71 229 102 480 274 200 90 36 2166 92 419 46 298 37 62 153 186 105 213 296 361 79 65 191 105 63 2512 85 723 190 212 23 53 137 105 50 969 105 58 123 106 41 56 277 158 121 1362 90 68 257 125 44 108 227 154 135 347 43 156 174 623 105 81 176 445 286 41 188 39 194 138 65 96 198 80 85 67 174 36 25 417 448 80 147 82 407 65 131 557 209 244 167 97 218 110 102 67 181 42 86 73 839 94 79 108 80 66 75 115 248 293 451 131 156 222 94 55 112 144 189 138 197 67 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 172 56 109 46 140 349 90 44 138 123 360 138 51 559 151 90 110 120 84 245 329 449 390 227 260 138 117 160 65 154 87 296 165 43 369 67 115 217 319 264 83 148 431 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 573
Low between peaks 0 -1 -3 -2 -7 0 3 1 13 -11 2 -7 -17 -8 3 -2 9 -1 -30 -13 2 -14 -12 9 3 307 -1 55 -9 -14 17 2 31 -8 31 -4 -5 -39 -11 1 -1 -18 -8 -8 -10 -16 -1 34 3 0 8 2 -17 -6 -64 5 -9 2 -2 25 -1 -7 -11 -3 -9 -14 -3 -6 0 4 -11 -4 -9 1 1 2 -30 -1 -13 -19 -5 -8 -4 -11 -5 1 -7 0 53 -3 34 1 -28 -14 -4 -2 -3 -6 -3 -7 -3 -6 -12 -2 -5 2 -1 -5 1 -17 -6 -5 0 -4 -80 -12 1 0 -4 0 0 -5 1 -7 -5 -8 -7 2 -7 -13 -8 -2 -8 -25 -21 1 -27 -25 -2 -5 1 -12 -2 -17 5 2 -1 -8 -12 -19 -9 -1 2 -1 -27 1 -1 12 -5 3 -2 -7 0 -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -12 -3 27 20 2 -5 40 120 1 -18 0 -9 2 58 7 -22 0 0 27 1 -45 -13 2 -10 -3 -10 6 2 5 -15 0 -3 0 1 -10 1 15 -14 4 2 8 -5 -12 -3 -7 -7 5 -6 -16 5 1 -7 -3 -7 -4 6 -5 1 6 1 1 3 1 5 -74 37 0 38 -8 1 -1 -51 -13 -2 1 -20 -4 0 3 0 1 -6 0 -2 0 1 -14 -6 -8 2 -1 -4 -4 -20 -45 3 -6 23 -28 4 -3 -10 -2 -3 -4 24 -23 3 -5 -4 -7 -11 -5 -1 2 -5 24 2 -2 -3 -16 -2 -6 -39 -13 -2 1 -1 -4 4 -5 -7 -12 1 -4 -13 -40 3 -9 7 -8 -5 -6 -12 -3 -7 -4 -9 2 -6 -11 -1 5 0 -18 -3 1 -18 16 -9 -22 -4 -6 -4 4 -12 -13 -5 1 -7 -2 1 -2 -1 -12 7 6 -36 -9 -5 -68 0 -11 -19 -2 -6 2 1 0 -3 -6 -48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-08-02 to 2021-08-08

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-08-01 11688 8826 4223 7445 11082 5846 11077 8310 2503 18521 11348 12394 11428 14884 5071 26722 37808 28197 5802 20935 11583 11321 13087 18082 31370 27004 131739 9363 25551 14907 6566 7489 38350 6367 34956 9679 65371 13238 7955 34850 8623 14127 22620 47021 7635 30744 8595 11052 10057 13745 24051 14667 20771 8383 19535 8817 12592 29917 11027 11807 10098 10200 22479 2200 16739 16599 6243 11417 29828 30080 8220 7056 6101 12023 33394 3530 15281 413 5791 5189 7044 24261 3848 58153 32721 4195 10264 38396 11801 11466 12642 5662 6269 24548 4264 17003 34054 16668 9089 33560 5550 12823 38363 9038 4093 6550 7830 6481 11724 8833 6046 6450 7437 26138 11969 11209 7900 8526 3776 9813 34242 15218 7122 10088 8192 9620 6939 6620 7402 19262 11983 9503 4389 7337 22120 11608 60113 9645 5147 12248 7390 27944 9547 4368 28294 14895 6363 18161 6980 26161 9787 11372 25296 5990 12682 7793 8944 31256 9093 10379 7427 6463 32699 8275 7860 29961 10422 11613 4619 9204 2822 8093 20758 12358 7675 9111 26534 15463 45927 21975 33541 13475 91084 44929 6488 28124 8782 9385 9918 64066 25181 15957 4784 3922 75800 10502 30812 3779 5028 7121 20195 3524 4330 9731 15141 9635 18908 6557 25513 5895 4935 2428 12524 8722 10388 37225 11285 41258 12624 15956 8779 3603 8275 15972 8795 7323 30356 12713 3906 14760 21030 6295 8645 21819 27121 9723 40546 11925 6068 32481 13546 4185 12684 8037 18740 16716 18832 5397 18830 14401 37768 15492 7767 12316 15368 23232 6710 14831 3907 29853 8126 9376 6001 27646 9004 6956 10570 9277 2295 2571 34407 41955 7911 4445 6975 32019 7336 9215 59372 373 19521 17818 21726 7617 6399 6184 8083 9282 23501 3044 6450 9482 6502 25449 7245 6521 8188 11862 7626 10621 19091 21003 18295 30360 9267 11092 22198 10962 7604 7548 4967 30290 23496 26432 7366 5782 34180 6800 19911 15520 19389 15617 25987 8026 7027 5319 14803 12261 7838 4736 12622 8447 20558 10482 7608 7303 1868 36343 24713 7551 6652 8468 7191 37895 31426 30297 31300 24182 10894 10077 7629 9952 6310 10603 8706 1703 6670 11978 6247 12119 5903 8322 19325 42316 25358 6870 10910 33189 8507 11224 30043 8636 7124 13758 8331 14158 10163 7329 17492
2021-08-02 11740 8854 4251 7473 11110 5863 11170 8385 2519 18620 11420 12460 11510 14950 5081 26800 38200 28310 5834 21020 11610 11400 13130 18160 31960 27110 132400 9414 25580 15020 6575 7527 38420 6432 35200 9730 65660 13290 8006 35100 8634 14160 22830 47340 7683 30790 8645 11100 10090 13870 24140 14710 20890 8439 19570 8860 12650 29990 11050 11830 10140 10290 22610 2210 16820 16650 6306 11470 29930 30300 8270 7108 6139 12040 33590 3541 15360 417 5832 5201 7099 24460 3873 58520 32820 4203 10320 38550 11830 11510 12700 5686 6361 24630 4294 17110 34130 16720 9121 33720 5574 12890 38510 9060 4120 6598 7849 6503 11800 8889 6084 6465 7444 26200 12020 11300 7955 8589 3783 9870 34350 15400 7146 10110 8292 9720 6983 6668 7453 19340 12030 9603 4422 7353 22160 11630 60390 9790 5182 12260 7411 28060 9561 4383 28390 14950 6394 18260 7019 26270 9830 11430 25400 6028 12710 7855 8992 31360 9141 10430 7476 6497 32820 8311 7883 30150 10460 11660 4640 9272 2831 8131 20870 12420 7733 9163 26730 15530 46130 22010 33710 13510 91660 45140 6519 28260 8825 9500 10000 64280 25260 16180 4792 3931 76220 10590 30940 3790 5041 7132 20260 3555 4359 9790 15240 9683 18990 6576 25590 5905 4951 2448 12550 8788 10440 37370 11320 41390 12650 16080 8810 3647 8330 16080 8848 7386 30500 12790 3948 14850 21140 6320 8685 21910 27400 9790 40730 11990 6091 32640 13610 4199 12710 8051 18810 16790 18940 5425 18860 14460 37880 15560 7805 12340 15410 23320 6726 14910 3929 30000 8138 9407 6074 27800 9053 6987 10600 9290 2311 2586 34800 42340 7941 4468 7014 32160 7379 9268 59770 373 19620 17900 21770 7639 6407 6200 8137 9323 23680 3076 6475 9525 6520 25560 7258 6631 8231 11910 7643 10740 19150 21240 18320 30510 9301 11150 22320 10990 7626 7579 4985 30410 23850 26500 7411 5830 34290 6817 19940 15550 19440 15720 26110 8101 7062 5376 15040 12320 7857 4767 12660 8494 20680 10660 7697 7316 1868 36480 24850 7615 6691 8487 7222 38070 31710 30410 31480 24300 10930 10120 7641 10000 6343 10660 8755 1717 6720 12070 6268 12160 5939 8354 19540 42470 25770 6914 10970 33440 8543 11290 30220 8667 7219 13810 8379 14230 10210 7372 17570
2021-08-03 11790 8895 4323 7518 11160 5894 11300 8505 2551 18710 11620 12590 11570 15080 5101 26910 38460 28450 5911 21240 11690 11610 13230 18300 32470 27370 132900 9507 25610 15250 6590 7591 38510 6480 35530 9880 66390 13440 8056 35270 8672 14250 23060 48160 7747 30890 8791 11210 10130 13950 24200 14740 21080 8491 19630 8964 12690 30060 11090 11870 10290 10400 22950 2225 17000 16730 6396 11580 30170 30490 8394 7200 6243 12100 33750 3559 15580 419 5905 5267 7142 24800 3931 58780 33110 4233 10440 38860 11880 11570 12830 5728 6417 24770 4367 17210 34330 16810 9176 34090 5603 12950 38750 9105 4170 6669 7861 6552 11950 8986 6113 6487 7463 26330 12130 11390 7991 8710 3795 9980 34530 15530 7181 10130 8415 9794 7056 6707 7497 19430 12120 9672 4494 7401 22230 11680 60580 9870 5256 12290 7486 28280 9584 4408 28570 15060 6439 18460 7096 26490 9920 11490 25570 6118 12770 7904 9082 31570 9254 10550 7513 6549 33100 8376 7913 30290 10500 11690 4663 9326 2843 8208 21130 12540 7829 9206 26990 15650 46470 22060 34140 13570 92200 45310 6559 28550 8952 9600 10080 64510 25410 16320 4817 3968 76530 10670 31120 3805 5076 7148 20380 3607 4395 9930 15370 9750 19150 6606 25700 5933 4979 2484 12560 8904 10550 37630 11370 41540 12700 16240 8837 3761 8464 16230 8961 7460 30620 12910 3982 15160 21240 6376 8732 22070 27610 9840 41100 12200 6130 32760 13720 4219 12730 8082 18900 16940 19140 5487 18900 14580 38010 15670 7889 12380 15470 23390 6745 15120 3979 30100 8182 9464 6124 28090 9175 7058 10650 9332 2328 2620 35070 42620 8028 4507 7082 32350 7472 9411 60240 382 19670 17950 21890 7670 6416 6243 8221 9381 24240 3138 6525 9581 6547 25670 7303 6706 8339 12070 7704 10820 19240 21450 18390 30870 9377 11360 22410 11040 7666 7638 5022 30550 24270 26610 7504 5917 34450 6848 19990 15650 19490 15900 26180 8152 7139 5467 15180 12370 7906 4811 12680 8611 20760 10770 7866 7333 1892 36780 24940 7678 6789 8526 7291 38290 31910 30620 31960 24570 10980 10220 7665 10110 6379 10780 8855 1743 6761 12130 6286 12210 6042 8398 19690 42580 26050 7002 11080 33620 8618 11410 30350 8712 7288 13910 8469 14400 10270 7473 17670
2021-08-04 11850 8930 4375 7555 11200 5918 11420 8604 2575 18810 11770 12700 11630 15180 5117 27010 38700 28580 5967 21390 11740 11760 13300 18410 32840 27550 133400 9581 25640 15420 6601 7641 38600 6514 35860 9990 66920 13550 8114 35440 8695 14310 23260 48740 7803 30960 8891 11290 10170 14020 24240 14770 21240 8543 19670 9038 12760 30110 11120 11880 10390 10510 23190 2237 17130 16800 6474 11660 30340 30640 8483 7272 6317 12140 33870 3574 15730 421 5963 5307 7182 25070 3974 59020 33310 4252 10530 39100 11920 11630 12930 5762 6473 24890 4419 17320 34460 16970 9219 34360 5629 12990 38950 9138 4208 6729 7876 6588 12070 9063 6140 6507 7470 26420 12200 11500 8015 8803 3804 10060 34680 15610 7210 10150 8526 9847 7115 6739 7543 19510 12190 9728 4549 7433 22290 11720 60790 9950 5311 12310 7536 28450 9604 4429 28710 15150 6477 18620 7154 26650 9990 11540 25710 6183 12810 7945 9151 31730 9335 10630 7548 6591 33300 8427 7938 30400 10540 11720 4684 9379 2853 8266 21320 12630 7907 9249 27220 15740 46750 22100 34440 13610 92740 45500 6595 28760 9039 9710 10160 64730 25530 16430 4833 3990 76860 10750 31280 3818 5101 7161 20480 3650 4427 10030 15480 9811 19270 6630 25790 5951 5002 2512 12580 8995 10630 37830 11410 41690 12730 16390 8865 3842 8562 16360 9045 7530 30740 13010 4018 15360 21330 6417 8776 22200 27800 9890 41380 12340 6161 32870 13810 4235 12750 8105 19000 17060 19290 5533 18930 14670 38130 15770 7951 12420 15520 23450 6763 15270 4016 30190 8210 9508 6162 28310 9262 7109 10690 9361 2344 2646 35300 42850 8088 4537 7135 32510 7540 9511 60710 388 19720 18000 21980 7716 6427 6273 8290 9430 24620 3186 6563 9630 6569 25770 7359 6760 8416 12170 7744 10870 19310 21650 18430 31140 9433 11490 22480 11080 7697 7684 5049 30680 24620 26700 7574 5987 34590 6871 20040 15710 19530 16050 26280 8201 7196 5541 15290 12390 7939 4849 12700 8695 20820 10850 7997 7347 1915 37000 25050 7740 6858 8555 7341 38490 32090 30780 32290 24770 11030 10290 7685 10190 6413 10870 8930 1763 6789 12200 6307 12260 6113 8441 19810 42680 26290 7069 11160 33810 8673 11510 30480 8750 7343 13990 8539 14520 10320 7547 17760
2021-08-05 11890 8963 4416 7585 11230 5938 11520 8690 2594 18900 11880 12780 11680 15260 5130 27090 38890 28690 6012 21510 11770 11880 13350 18500 33130 27700 133900 9643 25670 15560 6612 7686 38670 6550 36150 10070 67330 13630 8161 35600 8712 14360 23460 49210 7854 31030 8969 11350 10230 14090 24270 14800 21380 8596 19710 9098 12810 30170 11150 11910 10460 10600 23380 2248 17240 16860 6543 11720 30480 30800 8553 7335 6374 12160 33980 3587 15850 424 6013 5335 7221 25310 4009 59270 33460 4267 10600 39290 11950 11670 13010 5791 6523 24990 4462 17420 34570 17110 9257 34580 5653 13030 39120 9167 4241 6783 7893 6618 12170 9130 6167 6526 7484 26500 12270 11620 8034 8881 3812 10130 34800 15680 7236 10170 8631 9898 7167 6769 7590 19580 12240 9762 4592 7458 22340 11750 61000 10020 5357 12320 7572 28600 9621 4448 28830 15220 6510 18750 7204 26790 10050 11600 25830 6236 12840 7978 9210 31860 9402 10700 7578 6629 33460 8471 7961 30530 10570 11750 4705 9421 2862 8315 21470 12710 7974 9274 27430 15820 46990 22130 34680 13650 93280 45690 6628 28930 9105 9800 10240 64950 25630 16510 4845 4006 77150 10810 31420 3830 5121 7173 20560 3688 4457 10120 15590 9867 19370 6652 25880 5966 5021 2534 12600 9073 10690 38010 11450 41820 12760 16520 8893 3907 8640 16470 9115 7596 30830 13090 4058 15520 21410 6451 8816 22310 28060 9950 41610 12450 6187 33040 13890 4251 12780 8125 19090 17150 19420 5572 18960 14740 38240 15840 8001 12450 15570 23490 6779 15390 4045 30290 8230 9545 6190 28500 9331 7151 10720 9383 2360 2666 35490 43020 8135 4562 7180 32660 7595 9591 61140 393 19750 18050 22040 7759 6437 6297 8351 9475 24910 3226 6594 9676 6587 25870 7421 6795 8477 12250 7773 10930 19370 21790 18470 31350 9479 11590 22560 11110 7722 7723 5072 30790 24910 26780 7633 6046 34710 6890 20070 15760 19570 16170 26370 8242 7242 5606 15390 12410 7965 4883 12730 8763 20880 10910 8109 7361 1939 37180 25160 7795 6914 8579 7382 38670 32230 30920 32550 24930 11070 10350 7702 10260 6446 10940 8993 1780 6815 12230 6329 12300 6168 8495 19920 42770 26510 7125 11230 34000 8719 11590 30580 8782 7387 14060 8599 14620 10370 7606 17840
2021-08-06 11930 8995 4454 7614 11260 5958 11620 8774 2612 19000 11980 12860 11730 15340 5142 27180 39020 28800 6054 21620 11810 11990 13410 18590 33440 27850 134500 9702 25720 15700 6622 7729 38740 6577 36420 10140 67720 13700 8207 35720 8727 14400 23590 49640 7905 31090 9041 11410 10280 14130 24290 14820 21510 8649 19750 9155 12870 30230 11180 11940 10530 10690 23560 2258 17340 16910 6612 11790 30620 30940 8620 7395 6428 12190 34070 3599 15960 428 6061 5359 7255 25540 4041 59540 33600 4280 10670 39480 11980 11710 13090 5818 6569 25080 4502 17520 34660 17240 9294 34780 5678 13060 39280 9194 4273 6836 7910 6647 12270 9194 6197 6544 7502 26570 12330 11720 8046 8957 3820 10190 34920 15730 7260 10190 8733 9950 7218 6792 7638 19620 12300 9793 4633 7481 22380 11780 61200 10060 5400 12340 7606 28740 9639 4466 28940 15290 6542 18870 7251 26930 10100 11650 25950 6287 12880 8016 9267 31990 9464 10760 7612 6666 33620 8513 7985 30620 10610 11800 4726 9473 2872 8363 21620 12790 8039 9291 27640 15900 47220 22170 34910 13690 93900 45870 6659 29100 9167 9900 10310 65150 25730 16570 4857 4020 77400 10870 31550 3841 5140 7185 20640 3724 4487 10190 15690 9914 19470 6673 25960 5979 5039 2555 12610 9149 10760 38180 11480 41960 12800 16640 8921 3967 8715 16590 9181 7662 30910 13180 4085 15660 21520 6484 8856 22410 28170 10020 41830 12550 6213 33150 13960 4265 12830 8144 19170 17240 19550 5608 18980 14820 38350 15920 8049 12470 15610 23530 6794 15500 4072 30380 8248 9579 6214 28680 9397 7190 10760 9404 2375 2686 35630 43170 8179 4585 7224 32800 7648 9665 61490 397 19770 18100 22100 7811 6448 6320 8410 9518 25180 3264 6624 9721 6605 25950 7482 6819 8534 12330 7799 10970 19440 21930 18510 31550 9522 11690 22620 11140 7746 7760 5094 30900 25170 26850 7689 6104 34830 6909 20110 15800 19610 16290 26460 8277 7286 5669 15430 12420 7989 4916 12760 8826 20930 10970 8216 7374 1963 37360 25270 7840 6966 8601 7421 38840 32340 31050 32800 25080 11100 10410 7718 10320 6478 11010 9053 1797 6846 12260 6351 12350 6218 8535 20020 42890 26700 7179 11300 34150 8762 11670 30660 8813 7430 14120 8656 14710 10410 7662 17920
2021-08-07 11960 9025 4487 7640 11290 5976 11710 8852 2628 19090 12060 12940 11750 15410 5153 27250 39120 28910 6090 21710 11840 12080 13450 18670 33620 27970 134800 9756 25730 15820 6631 7769 38810 6593 36640 10210 68050 13770 8250 35840 8739 14440 23730 50010 7954 31140 9100 11470 10300 14150 24290 14840 21640 8703 19780 9203 12890 30230 11200 11950 10580 10780 23710 2268 17420 16970 6677 11840 30730 31050 8676 7449 6473 12210 34150 3611 16060 431 6105 5377 7275 25750 4070 59640 33720 4291 10730 39650 12010 11750 13150 5844 6597 25170 4536 17620 34740 17320 9327 34960 5701 13090 39440 9218 4301 6887 7928 6672 12350 9253 6212 6562 7509 26640 12380 11810 8046 9024 3827 10250 35030 15760 7283 10210 8833 9974 7265 6806 7686 19670 12340 9817 4669 7500 22430 11810 61320 10110 5438 12360 7633 28870 9655 4483 29040 15350 6571 18980 7293 27050 10140 11710 26060 6330 12910 8031 9318 32100 9518 10820 7632 6701 33750 8552 8008 30690 10650 11810 4746 9508 2881 8405 21750 12850 8099 9302 27840 15970 47430 22210 35110 13720 94210 45970 6689 29250 9218 9960 10390 65280 25820 16600 4866 4031 77570 10930 31680 3851 5156 7197 20710 3758 4515 10260 15780 9941 19550 6693 26030 5991 5056 2573 12630 9218 10820 38340 11510 42090 12830 16760 8949 4018 8779 16700 9239 7726 30970 13260 4106 15770 21570 6512 8895 22510 28250 10080 42020 12640 6237 33210 14020 4279 12840 8162 19240 17320 19660 5640 19010 14880 38460 15980 8092 12490 15660 23550 6809 15600 4095 30430 8262 9610 6225 28840 9453 7223 10790 9421 2390 2702 35730 43290 8215 4607 7264 32930 7694 9728 61840 401 19770 18140 22150 7845 6458 6339 8465 9559 25400 3298 6652 9764 6621 26000 7527 6845 8583 12390 7820 11010 19500 22040 18540 31730 9560 11770 22630 11170 7767 7794 5114 31010 25330 26920 7739 6157 34940 6926 20140 15830 19640 16400 26510 8299 7324 5727 15460 12420 8010 4947 12790 8880 20960 11000 8314 7386 1987 37510 25330 7871 7011 8621 7455 39010 32430 31180 33000 25200 11140 10460 7733 10370 6510 11070 9107 1811 6864 12290 6374 12390 6260 8566 20080 42930 26810 7227 11360 34260 8800 11730 30720 8842 7461 14170 8708 14790 10450 7710 17990
2021-08-08 11980 9054 4518 7664 11320 5994 11800 8929 2643 19190 12140 13010 11780 15470 5164 27330 39240 29020 6124 21800 11860 12160 13500 18740 33860 28090 135200 9808 25750 15930 6639 7808 38870 6618 36840 10260 68360 13830 8292 35930 8750 14480 23870 50360 8002 31190 9155 11520 10330 14180 24340 14860 21760 8757 19820 9248 12930 30270 11220 11960 10630 10870 23850 2278 17500 17020 6741 11900 30840 31140 8729 7502 6515 12230 34260 3622 16150 435 6147 5392 7288 25960 4097 59740 33830 4300 10790 39810 12040 11790 13210 5868 6634 25250 4568 17730 34820 17430 9360 35130 5725 13110 39590 9242 4329 6936 7947 6695 12440 9310 6221 6579 7522 26700 12430 11860 8059 9090 3834 10300 35130 15800 7304 10230 8931 9980 7310 6829 7735 19730 12390 9838 4703 7517 22470 11830 61410 10160 5474 12370 7657 28990 9671 4500 29140 15400 6600 19090 7334 27170 10190 11760 26170 6372 12940 8053 9368 32210 9569 10870 7665 6735 33880 8590 8030 30760 10680 11820 4766 9545 2889 8445 21870 12910 8157 9327 28030 16030 47630 22240 35290 13760 94460 46100 6719 29390 9265 10030 10460 65470 25900 16650 4874 4040 77770 10980 31810 3861 5171 7208 20780 3790 4543 10320 15880 9984 19630 6712 26110 6001 5071 2590 12650 9284 10870 38490 11550 42210 12860 16880 8978 4066 8839 16800 9294 7790 31050 13330 4128 15880 21640 6539 8934 22610 28340 10150 42210 12710 6261 33270 14090 4293 12860 8179 19310 17390 19760 5671 19040 14950 38570 16050 8132 12510 15700 23570 6825 15690 4117 30500 8275 9640 6236 28990 9506 7255 10820 9436 2405 2719 35840 43410 8249 4627 7303 33060 7738 9786 62130 405 19810 18170 22190 7883 6469 6356 8518 9599 25600 3331 6677 9807 6636 26070 7575 6868 8628 12450 7839 11050 19560 22160 18570 31890 9596 11840 22700 11200 7787 7826 5133 31120 25340 26980 7786 6208 35050 6942 20170 15860 19680 16510 26570 8328 7361 5784 15520 12460 8029 4977 12820 8931 21020 11050 8408 7399 2011 37660 25390 7899 7053 8640 7487 39170 32510 31290 33190 25320 11170 10510 7748 10430 6542 11130 9158 1825 6883 12330 6397 12430 6299 8606 20140 43030 26960 7273 11420 34360 8836 11800 30820 8869 7493 14220 8758 14860 10500 7755 18070

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-08-02 to 2021-08-08

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-08-01 11688 8826 4223 7445 11082 5846 11077 8310 2503 18521 11348 12394 11428 14884 5071 26722 37808 28197 5802 20935 11583 11321 13087 18082 31370 27004 131739 9363 25551 14907 6566 7489 38350 6367 34956 9679 65371 13238 7955 34850 8623 14127 22620 47021 7635 30744 8595 11052 10057 13745 24051 14667 20771 8383 19535 8817 12592 29917 11027 11807 10098 10200 22479 2200 16739 16599 6243 11417 29828 30080 8220 7056 6101 12023 33394 3530 15281 413 5791 5189 7044 24261 3848 58153 32721 4195 10264 38396 11801 11466 12642 5662 6269 24548 4264 17003 34054 16668 9089 33560 5550 12823 38363 9038 4093 6550 7830 6481 11724 8833 6046 6450 7437 26138 11969 11209 7900 8526 3776 9813 34242 15218 7122 10088 8192 9620 6939 6620 7402 19262 11983 9503 4389 7337 22120 11608 60113 9645 5147 12248 7390 27944 9547 4368 28294 14895 6363 18161 6980 26161 9787 11372 25296 5990 12682 7793 8944 31256 9093 10379 7427 6463 32699 8275 7860 29961 10422 11613 4619 9204 2822 8093 20758 12358 7675 9111 26534 15463 45927 21975 33541 13475 91084 44929 6488 28124 8782 9385 9918 64066 25181 15957 4784 3922 75800 10502 30812 3779 5028 7121 20195 3524 4330 9731 15141 9635 18908 6557 25513 5895 4935 2428 12524 8722 10388 37225 11285 41258 12624 15956 8779 3603 8275 15972 8795 7323 30356 12713 3906 14760 21030 6295 8645 21819 27121 9723 40546 11925 6068 32481 13546 4185 12684 8037 18740 16716 18832 5397 18830 14401 37768 15492 7767 12316 15368 23232 6710 14831 3907 29853 8126 9376 6001 27646 9004 6956 10570 9277 2295 2571 34407 41955 7911 4445 6975 32019 7336 9215 59372 373 19521 17818 21726 7617 6399 6184 8083 9282 23501 3044 6450 9482 6502 25449 7245 6521 8188 11862 7626 10621 19091 21003 18295 30360 9267 11092 22198 10962 7604 7548 4967 30290 23496 26432 7366 5782 34180 6800 19911 15520 19389 15617 25987 8026 7027 5319 14803 12261 7838 4736 12622 8447 20558 10482 7608 7303 1868 36343 24713 7551 6652 8468 7191 37895 31426 30297 31300 24182 10894 10077 7629 9952 6310 10603 8706 1703 6670 11978 6247 12119 5903 8322 19325 42316 25358 6870 10910 33189 8507 11224 30043 8636 7124 13758 8331 14158 10163 7329 17492
2021-08-02 11730 8857 4250 7473 11130 5858 11170 8390 2512 18620 11420 12470 11460 14940 5099 26800 37980 28290 5833 21010 11650 11400 13190 18150 31700 27100 132200 9411 25580 15040 6574 7525 38430 6398 35200 9730 65690 13290 8001 35010 8655 14160 22790 47310 7681 30870 8644 11100 10110 13800 24140 14690 20890 8440 19630 8855 12640 29980 11050 11830 10140 10290 22610 2210 16810 16660 6303 11470 29970 30210 8270 7106 6138 12070 33510 3541 15360 416 5832 5229 7077 24470 3874 58370 32890 4222 10310 38570 11860 11520 12690 5691 6321 24650 4293 17100 34260 16780 9117 33690 5573 12850 38530 9067 4123 6612 7849 6512 11800 8890 6068 6481 7449 26300 12020 11290 7930 8589 3784 9870 34340 15290 7148 10140 8292 9649 6980 6641 7452 19340 12030 9535 4408 7375 22180 11670 60260 9720 5179 12290 7437 28070 9587 4381 28420 14950 6395 18260 7017 26270 9830 11430 25390 6029 12720 7824 8988 31380 9134 10430 7458 6498 32820 8318 7904 30080 10480 11640 4631 9247 2830 8129 20870 12410 7730 9137 26740 15530 46140 22040 33710 13500 91490 45120 6510 28270 8826 9467 10000 64290 25260 16020 4808 3945 76070 10570 30930 3786 5061 7131 20280 3551 4355 9790 15250 9690 19000 6577 25620 5920 4952 2445 12540 8786 10460 37340 11310 41390 12650 16080 8807 3648 8326 16060 8846 7381 30470 12790 3939 14840 21110 6311 8678 21930 27230 9790 40740 11990 6092 32580 13610 4199 12710 8059 18820 16890 18930 5422 18900 14460 37870 15590 7806 12370 15410 23270 6724 14910 3933 29950 8161 9392 6024 27800 9055 6986 10640 9302 2309 2586 34580 42130 7961 4460 7012 32120 7380 9266 59760 375 19620 17860 21840 7662 6419 6208 8134 9319 23680 3074 6475 9530 6529 25560 7297 6571 8227 11910 7669 10670 19140 21150 18370 30510 9302 11160 22290 11000 7634 7583 4988 30410 23640 26490 7413 5825 34290 6823 19990 15560 19430 15730 26080 8058 7063 5381 14900 12320 7883 4767 12650 8494 20640 10560 7714 7315 1897 36480 24800 7594 6694 8488 7235 38060 31570 30400 31460 24300 10930 10120 7664 10000 6344 10650 8761 1716 6699 12040 6278 12160 5946 8364 19430 42390 25560 6912 10970 33330 8541 11290 30140 8669 7173 13800 8374 14230 10210 7370 17570
2021-08-03 11770 8900 4287 7517 11190 5874 11280 8497 2526 18720 11520 12540 11510 15010 5133 26880 38160 28390 5872 21120 11730 11510 13300 18240 32140 27240 132800 9470 25620 15210 6583 7577 38550 6432 35510 9800 66150 13360 8045 35170 8696 14210 22950 47710 7731 31040 8707 11160 10160 13860 24240 14720 21030 8496 19740 8913 12690 30060 11070 11850 10200 10400 22790 2220 16900 16730 6359 11530 30170 30350 8340 7166 6194 12130 33640 3555 15470 420 5886 5289 7121 24720 3908 58580 33110 4256 10390 38810 11930 11600 12770 5725 6382 24750 4333 17220 34500 16930 9157 33870 5600 12880 38710 9099 4155 6692 7865 6551 11880 8959 6092 6521 7466 26540 12080 11360 7966 8662 3796 9930 34480 15370 7177 10200 8394 9682 7030 6671 7501 19410 12080 9577 4440 7428 22250 11740 60410 9780 5219 12340 7502 28230 9633 4399 28580 15010 6439 18390 7063 26410 9890 11490 25500 6084 12760 7861 9040 31510 9193 10500 7487 6534 32970 8369 7950 30210 10540 11660 4647 9294 2837 8183 21020 12490 7798 9175 26940 15600 46370 22120 33940 13540 91950 45270 6539 28440 8887 9549 10090 64530 25350 16100 4840 3970 76330 10650 31080 3797 5106 7144 20380 3583 4389 9860 15380 9770 19140 6594 25740 5955 4971 2464 12560 8862 10550 37480 11350 41530 12690 16230 8831 3708 8400 16150 8907 7438 30580 12870 3973 14960 21210 6347 8711 22070 27330 9850 40970 12080 6119 32690 13680 4217 12750 8087 18910 17090 19060 5454 18990 14540 37980 15700 7856 12430 15450 23320 6740 15020 3965 30020 8207 9414 6058 28010 9121 7023 10720 9335 2325 2605 34770 42310 8028 4476 7053 32230 7434 9342 60210 378 19730 17910 21990 7703 6444 6242 8195 9353 23950 3110 6507 9581 6569 25660 7356 6620 8281 11990 7740 10720 19180 21330 18470 30710 9352 11250 22390 11050 7683 7629 5012 30560 23830 26560 7463 5886 34380 6853 20080 15620 19470 15870 26190 8083 7105 5442 15000 12380 7945 4800 12680 8563 20720 10640 7831 7327 1927 36640 24880 7647 6752 8510 7286 38230 31750 30540 31720 24440 10990 10180 7704 10060 6381 10720 8825 1733 6727 12100 6313 12200 5999 8411 19560 42510 25760 6964 11040 33460 8579 11370 30250 8712 7226 13840 8426 14320 10270 7422 17630
2021-08-04 11830 8932 4318 7553 11250 5887 11390 8592 2538 18820 11600 12610 11550 15080 5163 26960 38340 28490 5903 21210 11800 11600 13410 18320 32500 27350 133300 9523 25660 15360 6592 7627 38650 6460 35810 9860 66530 13420 8093 35350 8731 14250 23110 48070 7783 31190 8763 11220 10210 13910 24330 14740 21160 8552 19840 8961 12750 30130 11090 11860 10250 10510 22940 2229 16980 16800 6420 11580 30340 30480 8399 7220 6239 12190 33740 3568 15580 424 5935 5335 7161 24970 3937 58770 33300 4284 10450 39010 11990 11670 12840 5757 6439 24860 4365 17330 34710 17100 9194 34040 5624 12910 38870 9123 4184 6763 7882 6591 11960 9019 6118 6558 7480 26740 12130 11440 7994 8726 3806 9990 34600 15430 7201 10250 8493 9711 7077 6697 7548 19480 12130 9616 4469 7474 22330 11800 60580 9850 5255 12380 7555 28360 9672 4416 28710 15060 6479 18510 7103 26530 9940 11540 25590 6129 12800 7895 9087 31620 9250 10560 7516 6570 33110 8421 7991 30330 10610 11690 4665 9336 2844 8231 21150 12560 7859 9218 27130 15670 46590 22200 34160 13580 92410 45460 6567 28600 8937 9635 10170 64770 25440 16180 4865 3991 76640 10730 31220 3807 5145 7154 20460 3612 4420 9920 15500 9840 19260 6612 25850 5986 4989 2478 12570 8932 10630 37610 11390 41670 12730 16370 8856 3758 8463 16230 8966 7496 30690 12950 4007 15060 21300 6380 8750 22180 27440 9920 41180 12150 6143 32780 13750 4234 12780 8111 19000 17270 19170 5482 19060 14600 38090 15790 7900 12480 15490 23360 6755 15100 3993 30120 8245 9432 6085 28180 9177 7054 10780 9367 2342 2622 34960 42470 8082 4488 7091 32340 7480 9407 60640 380 19820 17950 22120 7749 6467 6273 8253 9386 24170 3143 6534 9631 6604 25750 7416 6663 8330 12060 7798 10760 19220 21490 18560 30890 9393 11330 22490 11090 7722 7669 5035 30700 24010 26610 7507 5943 34460 6883 20160 15670 19500 15990 26300 8108 7141 5502 15090 12430 7998 4833 12710 8621 20800 10710 7942 7337 1951 36780 24950 7699 6802 8530 7333 38400 31920 30670 31930 24570 11030 10230 7741 10110 6415 10780 8884 1748 6752 12160 6346 12250 6046 8455 19670 42620 25940 7011 11100 33600 8613 11440 30360 8751 7272 13880 8475 14400 10330 7469 17700
2021-08-05 11870 8964 4347 7584 11290 5903 11490 8683 2550 18920 11680 12670 11600 15150 5191 27040 38500 28580 5932 21290 11860 11680 13510 18400 32830 27460 133800 9573 25690 15490 6600 7669 38730 6490 36090 9910 66870 13470 8136 35500 8762 14290 23270 48410 7831 31320 8813 11270 10260 13960 24410 14770 21280 8609 19930 9005 12800 30200 11110 11880 10290 10610 23080 2238 17060 16850 6474 11620 30500 30610 8453 7270 6279 12250 33850 3581 15670 429 5981 5379 7199 25200 3964 58950 33470 4310 10510 39190 12050 11730 12890 5787 6493 24950 4394 17450 34910 17260 9228 34200 5648 12950 39030 9149 4212 6827 7903 6628 12030 9076 6144 6594 7496 26920 12180 11530 8019 8790 3816 10040 34700 15500 7226 10300 8592 9740 7122 6726 7596 19550 12180 9646 4494 7517 22390 11850 60750 9910 5289 12420 7602 28490 9708 4433 28840 15100 6514 18620 7140 26640 9980 11600 25690 6171 12830 7925 9130 31720 9301 10610 7545 6605 33240 8472 8041 30440 10660 11710 4685 9375 2851 8274 21270 12620 7916 9249 27310 15740 46810 22270 34380 13620 92850 45650 6595 28740 8981 9719 10260 65010 25510 16240 4889 4014 76920 10800 31340 3816 5180 7164 20550 3641 4451 9980 15620 9900 19380 6631 25960 6014 5004 2491 12580 8998 10690 37730 11420 41810 12750 16500 8883 3803 8519 16320 9017 7554 30790 13030 4047 15150 21390 6408 8785 22300 27530 9990 41380 12210 6166 32880 13810 4250 12800 8133 19090 17430 19260 5513 19130 14670 38190 15870 7940 12540 15530 23400 6770 15190 4018 30200 8281 9447 6108 28340 9229 7085 10850 9393 2359 2638 35130 42600 8136 4501 7127 32450 7523 9465 61060 382 19910 17980 22250 7792 6488 6301 8308 9416 24360 3174 6559 9682 6634 25850 7479 6700 8375 12120 7851 10800 19260 21640 18640 31070 9431 11400 22580 11130 7759 7706 5057 30820 24170 26670 7556 5999 34550 6911 20240 15720 19530 16110 26390 8131 7177 5557 15170 12470 8046 4866 12740 8674 20880 10770 8043 7347 1973 36920 25030 7750 6844 8549 7370 38550 32060 30790 32110 24680 11080 10280 7774 10160 6448 10840 8937 1762 6777 12200 6380 12300 6080 8509 19780 42700 26120 7054 11150 33750 8645 11500 30450 8790 7316 13920 8520 14470 10380 7512 17770
2021-08-06 11920 9006 4377 7612 11340 5917 11590 8771 2563 19010 11770 12750 11640 15210 5217 27120 38650 28670 5962 21380 11930 11750 13610 18470 33150 27570 134300 9622 25750 15620 6607 7715 38840 6520 36360 9960 67190 13530 8180 35660 8790 14320 23420 48710 7874 31450 8859 11320 10310 14020 24490 14790 21410 8663 20020 9053 12850 30260 11140 11890 10330 10710 23210 2246 17130 16900 6529 11650 30660 30730 8503 7319 6317 12310 33970 3593 15750 433 6025 5427 7236 25440 3989 59190 33650 4333 10580 39360 12110 11780 12950 5814 6545 25050 4426 17550 35120 17410 9262 34360 5671 12980 39200 9174 4239 6886 7925 6664 12100 9136 6170 6638 7514 27080 12230 11610 8050 8855 3824 10090 34830 15550 7249 10350 8690 9772 7166 6755 7643 19620 12220 9679 4516 7557 22460 11900 60930 9960 5327 12460 7644 28610 9742 4449 28970 15150 6547 18720 7176 26770 10030 11660 25790 6218 12870 7961 9169 31840 9357 10670 7574 6639 33360 8518 8085 30550 10730 11730 4701 9420 2858 8317 21380 12680 7971 9287 27480 15800 47020 22340 34580 13660 93270 45830 6622 28890 9022 9805 10330 65230 25580 16330 4912 4037 77170 10860 31490 3825 5222 7172 20630 3669 4480 10030 15730 9960 19480 6651 26060 6040 5022 2504 12590 9062 10770 37850 11450 41940 12780 16630 8909 3845 8573 16400 9065 7614 30890 13100 4078 15230 21480 6439 8821 22410 27600 10060 41560 12280 6188 32970 13880 4265 12830 8156 19170 17590 19350 5540 19210 14730 38300 15940 7977 12600 15570 23430 6784 15280 4041 30300 8317 9463 6137 28510 9277 7115 10920 9421 2375 2652 35280 42750 8191 4514 7161 32580 7563 9519 61450 385 19980 18030 22350 7841 6509 6327 8361 9448 24540 3204 6583 9734 6663 25930 7537 6736 8417 12180 7896 10840 19300 21790 18720 31240 9466 11460 22670 11170 7801 7742 5076 30940 24310 26720 7599 6057 34640 6941 20310 15780 19560 16220 26480 8154 7214 5610 15230 12510 8092 4897 12770 8724 20940 10830 8166 7356 1999 37050 25110 7802 6888 8566 7413 38690 32200 30920 32320 24790 11120 10320 7806 10210 6481 10900 9001 1776 6805 12250 6412 12340 6117 8557 19890 42820 26300 7097 11210 33870 8678 11570 30570 8834 7362 13960 8565 14540 10430 7558 17830
2021-08-07 11950 9034 4403 7640 11380 5932 11680 8857 2575 19100 11830 12800 11690 15270 5243 27190 38820 28760 5985 21440 11990 11820 13690 18540 33490 27650 134900 9670 25790 15740 6615 7750 38930 6545 36610 10010 67500 13570 8223 35790 8818 14360 23570 48980 7914 31580 8899 11370 10350 14050 24560 14810 21530 8719 20100 9099 12890 30310 11160 11900 10370 10810 23340 2254 17190 16960 6572 11690 30810 30840 8551 7367 6353 12350 34060 3605 15830 438 6069 5458 7268 25640 4014 59310 33800 4355 10640 39530 12160 11840 13010 5839 6595 25150 4451 17660 35250 17530 9295 34510 5692 13010 39340 9198 4266 6945 7942 6694 12170 9193 6192 6669 7528 27230 12270 11680 8075 8911 3833 10140 34930 15600 7267 10380 8788 9793 7209 6778 7690 19680 12260 9714 4539 7595 22530 11950 61070 10020 5357 12500 7686 28720 9775 4466 29090 15190 6580 18830 7211 26860 10070 11700 25850 6253 12900 7989 9208 31940 9402 10720 7602 6670 33470 8562 8119 30640 10780 11770 4718 9455 2864 8357 21500 12740 8025 9315 27640 15870 47190 22410 34750 13690 93620 45950 6650 29020 9062 9889 10410 65440 25660 16390 4932 4052 77380 10930 31610 3834 5252 7181 20710 3698 4510 10080 15850 10020 19580 6670 26170 6066 5034 2521 12600 9126 10820 37980 11480 42070 12810 16760 8933 3885 8629 16470 9115 7674 30970 13170 4102 15300 21560 6467 8853 22520 27680 10130 41740 12340 6210 33060 13940 4280 12860 8176 19230 17740 19460 5563 19280 14790 38400 16010 8014 12650 15600 23470 6798 15350 4063 30360 8347 9479 6151 28640 9325 7137 10980 9448 2390 2668 35410 42850 8231 4526 7192 32690 7603 9572 61820 387 20060 18060 22460 7878 6530 6353 8413 9477 24700 3234 6607 9776 6691 26000 7585 6777 8456 12240 7943 10880 19340 21930 18790 31390 9499 11520 22740 11210 7831 7778 5093 31070 24450 26760 7639 6107 34710 6969 20380 15810 19590 16330 26560 8171 7243 5659 15310 12560 8137 4927 12790 8772 21020 10880 8241 7364 2022 37140 25160 7844 6927 8584 7445 38790 32350 31030 32490 24900 11150 10360 7838 10260 6513 10950 9050 1789 6826 12290 6445 12380 6148 8593 19980 42880 26450 7131 11250 33970 8702 11630 30660 8865 7401 14000 8607 14600 10490 7596 17890
2021-08-08 11980 9056 4427 7667 11420 5947 11780 8944 2587 19190 11900 12850 11720 15330 5269 27260 38950 28860 6007 21510 12030 11890 13760 18620 33840 27730 135400 9718 25810 15850 6622 7787 39010 6575 36860 10060 67800 13610 8261 35910 8845 14390 23710 49270 7949 31700 8934 11410 10380 14090 24640 14830 21650 8772 20190 9138 12940 30360 11170 11920 10400 10910 23460 2263 17250 17000 6613 11720 30950 30940 8599 7414 6388 12400 34150 3616 15920 442 6113 5491 7298 25850 4039 59380 33950 4378 10690 39700 12220 11900 13060 5866 6647 25230 4475 17760 35420 17670 9327 34670 5716 13040 39480 9225 4292 7010 7957 6721 12240 9245 6211 6701 7542 27420 12310 11730 8088 8964 3842 10190 35030 15670 7286 10440 8887 9813 7253 6804 7737 19740 12310 9746 4560 7632 22600 12000 61200 10080 5386 12530 7726 28830 9807 4482 29210 15230 6613 18930 7245 26960 10110 11750 25940 6288 12930 8017 9247 32020 9447 10760 7632 6701 33600 8605 8147 30740 10840 11790 4733 9490 2871 8398 21610 12790 8079 9342 27800 15930 47360 22480 34890 13710 93940 46100 6675 29140 9101 9973 10490 65640 25730 16470 4953 4065 77600 10990 31730 3843 5284 7189 20780 3726 4539 10130 15960 10080 19690 6686 26270 6091 5045 2535 12620 9190 10870 38100 11510 42190 12840 16890 8960 3926 8675 16530 9156 7734 31050 13250 4127 15410 21630 6495 8883 22620 27740 10200 41900 12390 6231 33140 14000 4295 12890 8193 19280 17900 19540 5583 19340 14850 38490 16080 8050 12690 15640 23490 6812 15410 4086 30420 8376 9492 6173 28790 9372 7162 11040 9470 2405 2682 35570 42980 8275 4539 7225 32780 7643 9624 62190 389 20140 18090 22570 7912 6550 6379 8462 9502 24870 3264 6630 9811 6719 26070 7628 6808 8496 12280 7992 10930 19390 22080 18860 31530 9532 11580 22820 11240 7860 7813 5111 31180 24570 26800 7676 6150 34780 6992 20450 15850 19620 16440 26650 8190 7272 5698 15370 12610 8182 4956 12820 8819 21090 10930 8323 7373 2053 37240 25190 7878 6959 8600 7475 38880 32480 31140 32630 25000 11190 10400 7869 10290 6545 11000 9094 1802 6849 12320 6478 12430 6176 8628 20080 42960 26630 7166 11300 34060 8723 11690 30740 8891 7440 14040 8644 14660 10540 7634 17950

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.