COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-08-07 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-08-07

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-08-07

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-06-2112-272021-07-072021-07-062021-07-042021-06-232021-07-112021-07-1307-212021-03-252021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-062021-07-042021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-132021-07-0712-292021-07-0712-272021-07-0712-072021-07-062021-05-102021-07-062021-01-012021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-262021-07-072021-07-072021-07-032021-06-292021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-052021-07-022021-07-062021-06-272021-07-072021-06-222021-07-062021-07-072021-06-202021-06-292021-07-062021-07-012021-07-072021-07-242021-07-0710-282021-06-292021-07-06 --2021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-06-222021-06-202021-07-062021-01-052021-07-062021-07-062021-07-07 --2021-07-062021-07-022021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-042021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-01-022021-07-0512-212021-07-062021-07-112021-07-082021-07-0712-222021-06-212021-07-0607-212021-07-082021-07-062021-06-212021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-06-132021-07-062021-06-222021-07-062021-07-052021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-06-292021-07-062021-07-082021-07-072021-07-042021-07-04 --2021-06-252021-07-082021-07-07 --2021-06-202021-07-032021-07-072021-07-042021-07-042021-06-302021-07-0610-042021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-06-272021-07-062021-07-022021-07-062021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-042021-06-272021-07-062021-07-062021-07-082021-07-072021-07-012021-06-202021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-112021-07-062021-06-2912-212021-07-0712-212021-07-072021-07-072021-07-092021-07-082021-07-062021-07-072021-07-082021-07-0212-272021-07-072021-07-082021-07-042021-01-032021-06-292021-07-072021-07-062021-07-262021-07-2712-262021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-042021-06-302021-07-042021-07-082021-07-042021-07-0612-082021-07-062021-07-062021-07-082021-07-0612-212021-07-192021-07-072021-06-272021-07-072021-07-0712-062021-07-042021-03-182021-07-072021-07-062021-07-022021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-1207-212021-07-072021-07-072021-07-032021-07-06 --10-042021-07-052021-07-062021-07-072021-06-302021-07-052021-07-062021-07-112021-07-042021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-052021-06-292021-06-222021-07-072021-07-042021-06-222021-07-122021-07-072021-01-012021-07-052021-01-042021-07-072021-07-122021-07-062021-07-062021-07-0710-042021-07-0212-272021-07-062021-07-062021-07-042021-07-072021-06-292021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-062021-07-0612-232021-07-072021-06-292021-07-062021-07-062021-07-0707-212021-07-062021-07-082021-07-062021-07-2112-292021-07-062021-07-062021-07-052021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-0410-042021-07-262021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-0712-272021-06-292021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-06-302021-07-062021-07-052021-07-062021-06-202021-07-062021-07-062021-07-052021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-06-222021-07-072021-07-022021-07-072021-07-062021-07-052021-06-212021-07-202021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-0712-062021-07-172021-07-072021-07-022021-07-072021-07-072021-07-022021-07-072021-07-042021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-132021-07-072021-07-0712-1310-042021-07-072021-07-052021-06-242021-07-052021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-052021-07-072021-06-292021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-06-292021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-06-30
Peak daily increment 137 102 49 111 105 84 97 88 115 106 123 89 61 95 56 90 251 273 46 137 146 141 211 99 363 170 1249 71 157 151 95 59 208 40 484 102 468 99 51 171 67 52 208 590 57 252 91 69 95 72 157 32 150 61 155 67 60 99 111 24 95 95 221 41 112 167 68 264 239 79 67 67 119 446 20 138 5 64 112 44 40 612 371 51 100 221 118 138 88 52 83 246 46 170 386 149 39 260 119 184 183 296 47 88 76 60 114 88 112 63 66 283 70 82 58 86 22 80 137 102 58 108 81 64 36 237 58 63 55 81 274 121 631 90 54 61 109 161 65 23 222 75 81 150 53 147 59 110 134 63 145 45 62 141 87 79 73 86 192 76 83 127 100 71 74 54 18 60 186 81 63 69 239 92 258 311 284 109 696 284 53 204 76 104 85 727 105 117 39 45 446 76 158 40 67 105 120 41 35 98 186 73 265 99 191 48 62 29 23 89 113 386 102 148 34 135 186 69 91 227 74 389 93 34 190 229 75 94 122 317 72 252 140 30 252 4 131 22 56 113 89 337 203 40 102 80 120 292 53 111 150 56 52 135 65 211 73 69 47 198 79 46 113 67 18 21 237 246 92 83 55 196 64 93 462 24 159 57 271 51 42 46 68 67 334 46 38 65 68 460 59 66 76 89 102 102 303 199 147 234 67 120 137 85 75 55 43 238 333 231 71 66 423 54 140 97 46 145 210 83 57 72 134 113 89 37 38 75 97 101 125 101 29 221 183 57 62 27 76 349 183 152 302 194 108 70 68 82 36 98 85 29 79 92 44 102 63 63 131 363 335 58 79 245 57 89 182 97 59 68 75 111 117 71 144
Days since peak 47 223 31 32 34 45 27 25 382 135 32 32 32 31 32 30 32 34 32 32 32 32 32 31 25 31 221 31 223 31 243 32 89 32 218 31 31 32 12 31 31 35 39 31 32 32 31 32 33 36 32 41 31 46 32 31 48 39 32 37 31 14 31 283 39 32 32 32 32 32 31 32 32 46 48 32 214 32 32 31 32 36 31 32 31 31 31 34 31 32 32 217 33 229 32 27 30 31 228 47 32 382 30 32 47 32 31 31 55 32 46 32 33 31 32 32 39 32 30 31 34 34 43 30 31 48 35 31 34 34 38 32 307 31 31 32 32 31 31 41 32 36 32 31 30 31 32 32 31 31 34 41 32 32 30 31 37 48 31 32 32 27 32 39 229 31 229 31 31 29 30 32 31 30 36 223 31 30 34 216 39 31 32 12 11 224 31 31 31 34 38 34 30 34 32 242 32 32 30 32 229 19 31 41 31 31 244 34 142 31 32 36 32 32 31 26 382 31 31 35 32 307 33 32 31 38 33 32 27 34 31 32 31 32 33 39 46 31 34 46 26 31 218 33 215 31 26 32 32 31 307 36 223 32 32 34 31 39 31 32 32 31 32 31 31 32 30 32 32 227 31 39 32 32 31 382 32 30 32 17 221 32 32 33 32 31 31 32 34 307 12 32 32 32 31 223 39 31 31 31 32 32 38 32 33 32 48 32 32 33 31 31 33 31 32 32 32 31 31 46 31 36 31 32 33 47 18 31 32 31 31 244 21 31 36 31 31 36 31 34 31 31 32 32 30 31 31 31 25 31 31 237 307 31 33 44 33 32 31 32 30 33 31 39 31 31 31 32 32 39 31 31 32 30 38
Last total 11934 9107 4402 7653 11376 5935 11544 8836 2604 19292 11688 12872 11701 15273 5172 27197 38676 28941 5978 21302 11980 11722 13593 18574 32965 27571 135073 9767 25804 15451 6638 7779 38868 6582 36623 9960 66940 13511 8238 35737 8813 14333 23799 48738 7907 31473 8858 11313 10361 13983 24592 14856 21485 8859 20074 9079 12880 30315 11166 11972 10234 10766 23061 2235 17285 16923 6637 11745 30684 30847 8433 7368 6297 12254 34083 3565 15714 426 6017 5385 7238 26042 3994 59378 33694 4317 10591 39469 12144 11734 12929 5909 6488 25304 4438 17749 35014 17707 9333 34402 5784 12982 39291 9200 4342 6969 7942 6719 12188 9261 6280 6614 7575 27284 12228 11595 8114 8913 3825 10157 34874 15534 7282 10436 8870 9784 7200 6827 7968 19869 12209 9717 4527 7562 22576 11953 60948 10036 5345 12550 7685 28617 9870 4496 28980 15239 6539 18767 7274 26752 10014 11761 25913 6217 12927 7957 9217 31887 9325 10658 7636 6759 33407 8682 8199 30634 10831 11780 4723 9441 2884 8259 21378 12682 7997 9369 27864 15895 47272 22470 34620 13788 93916 46178 6700 28974 9046 9910 10417 65631 25785 16350 4906 4011 77508 10974 31497 3874 5268 7182 20755 3775 4489 10150 15918 10027 19433 6694 26223 6077 5053 2491 12679 9148 10755 38088 11543 42232 12885 16571 9040 3925 8548 16651 9139 7726 31012 13306 4026 15170 21580 6440 8883 22459 27837 10289 41675 12280 6267 33192 154 13917 4296 12889 8166 19556 17744 19441 5552 19224 14882 38444 15928 7996 12687 15594 23456 6849 15243 4029 30426 8246 9525 6124 28548 9304 7116 10942 9465 2374 2674 35331 42910 8200 4589 7306 32696 7579 9432 61692 383 20129 18155 22432 7967 6531 6342 8510 9564 24289 3241 6632 9874 6656 26053 7563 6694 8432 12091 7973 10895 19426 21839 18688 31222 9488 11466 22734 11223 7842 7796 5085 31140 24080 27087 7671 6093 34814 6975 20451 15708 19648 16329 26585 8239 7252 5689 15184 12494 8091 4999 12874 8670 20912 10712 8182 7406 2037 37224 25352 7766 6867 8631 7426 39014 32188 30937 32360 24738 11252 10340 7887 10231 6524 10928 9016 1804 6820 12264 6505 12368 6084 8675 19829 43015 26501 7104 11272 33970 8723 11566 30771 8851 7424 13973 8571 14570 10444 7562 18154
Last daily increment 18 28 20 18 22 12 62 80 14 111 50 54 31 51 10 64 87 87 19 53 43 34 51 56 214 76 382 68 32 36 14 32 58 25 213 27 180 36 39 112 23 14 112 206 31 88 30 27 23 15 64 26 81 65 45 30 39 46 16 22 20 76 67 4 70 42 52 37 99 93 33 39 26 23 93 4 44 2 8 17 28 244 29 151 132 10 41 91 43 33 32 24 12 78 16 110 123 113 24 91 34 17 125 20 38 45 12 25 51 54 41 19 21 144 20 45 25 52 4 35 90 36 16 41 74 20 29 23 93 66 11 38 9 16 54 25 93 35 27 36 34 70 55 6 70 38 16 60 31 56 30 37 66 17 28 26 31 70 23 35 24 27 90 38 50 70 41 23 18 25 7 18 61 36 46 35 168 58 148 51 102 45 311 154 21 81 33 58 72 146 63 36 13 15 190 51 92 14 23 2 65 35 22 56 112 50 63 16 91 15 9 7 28 48 42 99 27 139 27 103 31 56 36 78 44 43 72 90 13 61 66 12 27 79 94 57 124 50 25 74 0 38 11 20 11 85 134 70 7 62 52 82 49 28 38 25 21 16 31 12 73 12 20 9 103 45 18 34 24 8 11 102 127 39 11 43 61 30 33 266 2 71 43 94 53 14 10 61 30 101 25 25 45 19 70 39 18 27 24 36 31 34 103 36 86 34 58 53 30 33 29 13 103 68 65 44 39 83 18 64 19 16 93 74 24 28 41 41 17 31 32 36 22 43 28 47 12 15 97 67 23 22 19 17 134 82 76 114 60 36 19 33 30 24 42 30 14 10 30 33 24 30 35 57 69 140 25 47 100 27 44 91 21 39 8 31 56 35 34 85
Last week 246 278 179 208 294 89 468 533 101 780 338 475 273 390 100 478 852 746 176 366 396 402 507 495 1627 557 3308 403 252 541 71 290 510 211 1664 281 1560 272 273 877 189 205 1157 1715 273 725 262 256 301 235 536 184 712 470 530 261 287 393 138 163 134 574 583 35 546 320 389 326 848 762 208 310 193 229 686 35 433 11 224 197 193 1776 145 1217 962 122 325 1068 340 264 282 244 212 756 173 757 954 1032 245 835 233 157 922 162 247 417 112 235 462 427 234 163 137 1151 256 386 214 383 49 337 627 317 157 352 671 164 259 207 575 605 223 212 137 218 452 344 832 395 198 301 294 667 317 125 682 342 174 556 293 580 228 384 609 225 246 161 274 631 228 282 206 296 702 408 336 666 405 164 104 236 60 165 616 304 321 254 1327 430 1341 497 1072 310 2824 1250 210 846 266 524 510 1546 599 393 119 89 1704 478 684 94 234 61 556 248 159 413 789 400 522 137 706 181 117 63 153 428 365 861 258 966 259 627 261 324 271 679 342 403 654 591 121 406 548 144 233 638 715 566 1118 354 199 702 8 365 107 207 129 809 1026 610 154 391 475 673 430 230 370 226 221 137 405 123 570 119 149 120 899 300 159 375 188 80 104 910 945 287 143 332 675 241 214 2309 10 608 334 705 345 132 159 428 280 783 194 181 392 153 602 318 173 242 227 335 273 334 833 389 850 217 369 534 262 236 248 118 848 581 656 305 309 636 174 537 187 256 712 595 213 221 368 381 231 254 263 253 221 352 231 567 102 170 872 629 212 214 163 231 1114 757 638 1034 554 357 255 252 272 211 323 305 99 150 283 258 248 181 350 496 690 1141 231 359 782 215 341 732 217 293 210 239 412 280 232 659
Previous peak date07-2107-2112-2712-2612-2707-2112-2112-26 --12-2112-2112-2712-0712-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1111-0212-2110-0712-2211-0212-2710-1310-13 --2021-01-0710-1511-1311-0212-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2811-0212-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3010-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-21 --11-0212-2212-2812-2512-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-3007-2107-2112-26 --12-2912-2612-2712-2712-2411-0212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-2810-272021-02-2510-0110-1412-2712-0712-2607-2107-2112-27 --12-2412-2907-2112-2412-2111-0907-2112-2607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-06 --07-2112-2312-2712-2207-2112-2512-2512-2510-1710-2912-2607-2112-2112-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-2712-2812-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-2212-2907-2112-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0107-2112-2806-1112-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2210-2709-2912-292021-01-0611-0211-0212-2112-2712-2711-0212-2109-2812-2712-2212-2112-3111-022021-01-0212-22 --2021-01-07 --12-2112-2112-2112-2210-1212-2112-3107-2112-2212-27 --07-2112-0712-2812-2911-0211-0312-2712-0612-27 --12-0810-1410-2612-2612-2707-2111-0112-2112-3011-0412-2111-0312-2712-212021-01-0111-0212-2911-0210-22 --12-2712-2812-2607-2112-3111-0211-0212-0611-0212-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2207-2112-0610-1112-2112-2710-1912-1310-1112-1310-1812-3012-2810-1312-252021-01-262021-01-0211-0212-2910-3107-2112-2112-2812-2912-2211-02 --12-3012-2512-2512-2107-2112-2212-2112-2812-26 --2021-01-0412-2211-0907-2112-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2810-2412-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-2712-2207-2112-2812-2711-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2510-182021-01-0212-2612-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-2112-2212-2212-27 -- --12-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-20 --07-2111-0212-0707-2112-2212-2812-2210-1612-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-2712-3112-2812-2512-3112-2112-3012-2611-02
Previous peak daily increment 605 366 61 88 97 285 134 73 260 170 110 176 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 128 109 277 233 262 426 1200 75 166 98 58 234 50 355 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 1167 107 508 94 186 62 122 160 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 107 303 292 268 58 197 249 283 59 91 71 65 1221 82 243 35 53 94 334 34 551 288 38 181 598 151 69 189 72 58 164 27 206 248 187 118 322 216 684 536 60 52 370 76 160 106 184 51 226 206 102 163 146 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 457 90 74 94 661 150 125 54 42 127 82 1697 92 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 218 59 201 57 401 172 103 338 103 106 136 120 476 101 159 52 139 442 57 115 452 143 83 239 134 44 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 153 428 107 1522 469 104 457 71 229 102 480 274 200 90 36 2166 92 419 46 298 37 62 153 109 105 213 296 361 79 65 191 105 63 2512 85 723 190 212 23 53 137 105 55 969 105 58 123 106 41 56 277 158 121 1362 90 68 257 125 44 108 227 154 135 347 43 156 174 623 105 81 176 445 286 41 188 39 194 138 65 96 198 80 85 67 174 36 25 417 448 80 147 82 407 65 131 557 209 244 167 97 218 110 102 69 181 42 86 73 839 94 79 108 80 66 75 115 248 293 451 131 156 222 94 55 112 144 189 138 197 67 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 172 56 109 46 140 349 90 44 138 123 360 138 51 559 151 90 110 120 84 245 329 449 390 227 260 138 117 160 65 154 87 296 165 42 369 67 115 217 319 264 83 148 431 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 573
Low between peaks 0 -1 -3 -2 -7 0 3 1 13 -11 2 -7 -17 -8 3 -2 9 -1 -30 -13 2 -14 -12 9 3 307 -1 55 -9 -14 17 2 31 -8 31 -4 -5 -39 -11 1 -1 -18 -8 -8 -10 -16 -1 3 3 0 8 2 -17 -6 -64 5 -9 2 -2 3 -1 -7 -11 -3 -9 -14 -3 -6 0 4 -11 -4 -9 1 1 2 -1 -13 -19 -5 -8 -4 -11 -5 1 -7 0 53 -3 34 1 -28 -14 -4 -2 -3 -6 -3 -7 -3 -6 -12 -2 -5 2 -1 -5 1 -17 -6 -5 0 -4 -80 -12 1 0 -4 0 0 -5 1 -7 -5 -8 -7 2 -7 -13 -8 -2 -8 -25 -21 1 -27 -25 -2 -5 1 -12 -2 -17 5 2 -1 -8 -12 -19 -9 -1 2 -1 -27 1 -1 12 -5 3 -2 -7 0 -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -12 -3 27 20 2 -5 40 120 1 -18 0 -9 2 58 7 -22 0 0 27 1 -45 -13 2 -10 -3 -10 39 2 5 -15 0 -3 0 7 -10 1 15 -14 4 2 8 -5 -12 -3 -7 -7 5 -6 -16 5 1 -7 -3 -7 -4 6 -5 1 6 1 1 3 1 5 -74 37 0 38 -8 1 -1 -51 -13 -2 1 -20 -4 0 3 0 1 -6 0 -2 0 1 -14 -6 -8 2 -1 -4 -4 -20 -45 3 -6 23 -28 4 -3 -10 -2 -3 -4 -12 -23 3 -5 -4 -7 -11 -5 -1 2 -5 24 2 -2 -3 -16 -2 -6 -39 -13 -2 1 -1 -4 4 -5 -7 -12 1 -4 -13 -40 3 -9 7 -8 -5 -6 -12 -3 -7 -4 -9 2 -6 -11 -1 5 0 -18 -3 1 -18 16 -9 -22 -4 -6 -4 4 -12 -13 -5 1 -7 -2 1 -4 -2 -1 -12 7 6 -36 -9 -5 -68 0 -11 -19 -2 -6 2 1 0 -3 -6 -48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-08-08 to 2021-08-14

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-08-07 11934 9107 4402 7653 11376 5935 11544 8836 2604 19292 11688 12872 11701 15273 5172 27197 38676 28941 5978 21302 11980 11722 13593 18574 32965 27571 135073 9767 25804 15451 6638 7779 38868 6582 36623 9960 66940 13511 8238 35737 8813 14333 23799 48738 7907 31473 8858 11313 10361 13983 24592 14856 21485 8859 20074 9079 12880 30315 11166 11972 10234 10766 23061 2235 17285 16923 6637 11745 30684 30847 8433 7368 6297 12254 34083 3565 15714 426 6017 5385 7238 26042 3994 59378 33694 4317 10591 39469 12144 11734 12929 5909 6488 25304 4438 17749 35014 17707 9333 34402 5784 12982 39291 9200 4342 6969 7942 6719 12188 9261 6280 6614 7575 27284 12228 11595 8114 8913 3825 10157 34874 15534 7282 10436 8870 9784 7200 6827 7968 19869 12209 9717 4527 7562 22576 11953 60948 10036 5345 12550 7685 28617 9870 4496 28980 15239 6539 18767 7274 26752 10014 11761 25913 6217 12927 7957 9217 31887 9325 10658 7636 6759 33407 8682 8199 30634 10831 11780 4723 9441 2884 8259 21378 12682 7997 9369 27864 15895 47272 22470 34620 13788 93916 46178 6700 28974 9046 9910 10417 65631 25785 16350 4906 4011 77508 10974 31497 3874 5268 7182 20755 3775 4489 10150 15918 10027 19433 6694 26223 6077 5053 2491 12679 9148 10755 38088 11543 42232 12885 16571 9040 3925 8548 16651 9139 7726 31012 13306 4026 15170 21580 6440 8883 22459 27837 10289 41675 12280 6267 33192 154 13917 4296 12889 8166 19556 17744 19441 5552 19224 14882 38444 15928 7996 12687 15594 23456 6849 15243 4029 30426 8246 9525 6124 28548 9304 7116 10942 9465 2374 2674 35331 42910 8200 4589 7306 32696 7579 9432 61692 383 20129 18155 22432 7967 6531 6342 8510 9564 24289 3241 6632 9874 6656 26053 7563 6694 8432 12091 7973 10895 19426 21839 18688 31222 9488 11466 22734 11223 7842 7796 5085 31140 24080 27087 7671 6093 34814 6975 20451 15708 19648 16329 26585 8239 7252 5689 15184 12494 8091 4999 12874 8670 20912 10712 8182 7406 2037 37224 25352 7766 6867 8631 7426 39014 32188 30937 32360 24738 11252 10340 7887 10231 6524 10928 9016 1804 6820 12264 6505 12368 6084 8675 19829 43015 26501 7104 11272 33970 8723 11566 30771 8851 7424 13973 8571 14570 10444 7562 18154
2021-08-08 11950 9121 4424 7679 11380 5943 11630 8910 2618 19400 11730 12940 11740 15310 5188 27270 38740 29050 5999 21330 12050 11770 13700 18650 33240 27610 135600 9820 25810 15520 6648 7820 38940 6604 36880 10000 67140 13550 8292 35890 8839 14360 23960 49020 7950 31580 8894 11340 10380 13990 24600 14870 21560 8922 20150 9094 12940 30370 11190 12000 10250 10850 23150 2243 17330 16980 6699 11770 30850 30960 8462 7412 6321 12290 34160 3573 15800 429 6053 5405 7270 26730 4015 59530 33900 4329 10610 39620 12190 11770 12980 5945 6532 25400 4463 17860 35140 17800 9366 34450 5821 13030 39440 9223 4372 7031 7959 6761 12250 9319 6283 6626 7592 27450 12240 11690 8114 8979 3832 10200 34940 15580 7306 10490 8970 9799 7234 6844 7968 19960 12240 9730 4537 7587 22650 12020 61050 10090 5369 12590 7721 28680 9900 4512 29070 15270 6565 18840 7313 26800 10030 11820 26010 6248 12960 8007 9252 31980 9338 10680 7668 6797 33510 8732 8232 30750 10890 11790 4742 9481 2893 8286 21460 12730 8042 9370 28060 15960 47470 22550 34740 13810 94330 46280 6729 29080 9076 10000 10500 65850 25870 16380 4922 4024 77770 11010 31610 3885 5294 7192 20820 3804 4516 10210 15960 10090 19530 6704 26310 6101 5068 2497 12700 9200 10790 38230 11580 42370 12890 16690 9073 3966 8585 16760 9188 7856 31100 13390 4079 15240 21700 6463 8936 22560 27930 10370 41820 12360 6293 33280 155 13980 4309 12920 8187 19630 17940 19510 5576 19280 14950 38550 15980 8011 12750 15630 23510 6867 15310 4047 30490 8263 9577 6138 28630 9323 7153 11020 9481 2388 2688 35410 42960 8237 4613 7349 32740 7611 9457 62050 384 20210 18190 22540 7987 6551 6351 8567 9602 24400 3271 6657 9930 6678 26110 7616 6706 8478 12130 8032 10910 19480 21970 18740 31280 9513 11510 22740 11260 7870 7831 5103 31250 24160 27200 7714 6140 34910 6998 20520 15730 19690 16430 26650 8269 7277 5744 15230 12530 8128 5006 12910 8700 20950 10730 8251 7422 2064 37330 25400 7803 6893 8651 7452 39140 32190 31000 32420 24810 11290 10360 7911 10250 6556 10960 9062 1818 6844 12310 6543 12410 6107 8716 19910 43080 26650 7143 11320 34150 8755 11620 30770 8882 7467 14010 8604 14600 10490 7591 18240
2021-08-09 12010 9168 4454 7717 11430 5953 11750 8989 2632 19460 11790 13020 11800 15340 5213 27360 38850 29180 6021 21380 12160 11870 13860 18750 33720 27670 136300 9870 25850 15670 6654 7869 39040 6637 37180 10070 67380 13590 8340 36080 8867 14420 24140 49500 8013 31720 8941 11370 10420 14020 24680 14900 21640 8957 20250 9105 12990 30440 11220 12020 10280 10920 23270 2260 17360 17060 6755 11780 31130 31130 8493 7455 6343 12330 34260 3596 15960 437 6132 5433 7327 27340 4045 59790 34230 4345 10620 39850 12230 11830 13080 5986 6635 25510 4503 17960 35300 17920 9402 34530 5850 13080 39640 9251 4384 7100 7975 6816 12330 9369 6317 6658 7600 27610 12260 11770 8124 9054 3844 10250 35010 15640 7336 10550 9084 9828 7281 6876 8045 20070 12330 9756 4551 7620 22770 12120 61210 10180 5407 12620 7783 28750 9920 4531 29240 15290 6605 18970 7357 26880 10050 11870 26180 6316 13010 8054 9286 32150 9369 10700 7711 6841 33610 8780 8250 30900 10980 11820 4773 9551 2901 8353 21620 12790 8092 9407 28260 16050 47720 22660 34940 13850 94880 46480 6773 29220 9096 10120 10580 66130 25970 16430 4944 4037 78140 11080 31820 3894 5317 7211 20890 3812 4563 10280 16060 10160 19700 6710 26420 6126 5084 2508 12720 9258 10820 38510 11630 42490 12920 16870 9082 3987 8623 16890 9260 7962 31260 13450 4117 15380 21930 6519 9020 22700 28080 10420 42030 12490 6309 33390 155 14070 4323 12950 8227 19750 18230 19590 5628 19340 15010 38680 16070 8023 12840 15680 23560 6879 15410 4091 30590 8299 9630 6178 28720 9334 7219 11130 9512 2413 2709 35490 43100 8268 4634 7379 32850 7638 9490 62510 386 20300 18250 22660 8026 6584 6366 8612 9639 24540 3317 6686 9960 6706 26210 7676 6733 8546 12170 8115 10930 19590 22200 18810 31350 9559 11540 22800 11300 7896 7881 5128 31360 24320 27370 7775 6208 35060 7026 20600 15770 19730 16570 26760 8313 7307 5814 15280 12580 8171 5042 12940 8737 21010 10760 8342 7442 2097 37470 25490 7884 6916 8667 7505 39330 32270 31100 32510 24910 11340 10380 7926 10280 6595 11020 9155 1834 6879 12390 6580 12480 6149 8775 20090 43180 26890 7218 11400 34340 8808 11730 30850 8923 7528 14080 8663 14620 10540 7645 18290
2021-08-10 12040 9225 4480 7749 11480 5962 11850 9064 2646 19530 11830 13100 11850 15370 5234 27450 38940 29290 6042 21420 12250 11940 13990 18840 34110 27720 136900 9920 25900 15790 6662 7914 39130 6673 37450 10120 67590 13630 8388 36240 8893 14470 24310 49880 8067 31850 8982 11400 10470 14040 24760 14940 21710 9005 20340 9116 13030 30510 11240 12040 10310 11000 23370 2273 17390 17130 6810 11790 31360 31270 8523 7498 6365 12380 34400 3612 16080 442 6192 5458 7371 27960 4071 60010 34510 4359 10630 40040 12280 11880 13160 6025 6712 25620 4537 18060 35450 18090 9436 34590 5881 13120 39820 9277 4405 7165 7991 6865 12390 9423 6357 6680 7614 27780 12270 11840 8142 9124 3853 10290 35080 15690 7363 10610 9190 9851 7322 6908 8127 20180 12380 9783 4563 7649 22870 12210 61350 10260 5437 12660 7832 28820 9940 4550 29370 15320 6639 19080 7399 26940 10070 11930 26310 6369 13060 8088 9321 32290 9392 10720 7749 6882 33710 8830 8275 31020 11040 11840 4799 9607 2909 8401 21740 12840 8139 9436 28460 16120 47950 22750 35110 13900 95410 46680 6811 29340 9121 10230 10660 66380 26060 16490 4962 4049 78450 11160 31980 3903 5342 7225 20960 3830 4600 10340 16170 10230 19840 6719 26520 6150 5100 2518 12740 9313 10860 38720 11670 42620 12960 17020 9102 4015 8660 17010 9320 8062 31360 13520 4145 15490 22110 6560 9088 22820 28220 10480 42210 12590 6329 33490 156 14150 4337 12980 8257 19870 18470 19670 5667 19400 15070 38800 16140 8036 12910 15730 23620 6893 15500 4122 30690 8326 9680 6206 28810 9347 7271 11230 9543 2433 2726 35560 43220 8301 4656 7414 32930 7667 9518 62930 388 20390 18300 22770 8072 6611 6378 8662 9676 24670 3355 6713 10010 6730 26310 7732 6752 8604 12210 8189 10950 19670 22380 18870 31420 9596 11570 22840 11340 7923 7923 5150 31470 24440 27510 7826 6266 35190 7052 20670 15800 19780 16690 26850 8350 7334 5877 15320 12620 8211 5079 12970 8771 21060 10780 8424 7459 2125 37590 25590 7944 6941 8684 7546 39500 32320 31180 32580 24990 11380 10400 7945 10300 6632 11060 9226 1849 6909 12460 6617 12530 6181 8831 20230 43300 27090 7276 11460 34500 8851 11820 30910 8959 7579 14140 8710 14640 10590 7686 18360
2021-08-11 12080 9269 4505 7777 11520 5971 11940 9136 2659 19620 11880 13170 11890 15400 5252 27520 39010 29410 6062 21470 12330 12000 14110 18920 34440 27760 137400 9970 25930 15880 6670 7956 39210 6703 37720 10170 67800 13670 8438 36400 8919 14510 24470 50220 8115 31970 9019 11430 10520 14050 24860 14970 21790 9058 20420 9129 13090 30570 11270 12060 10330 11080 23460 2283 17430 17190 6862 11810 31550 31390 8549 7540 6387 12410 34500 3625 16190 447 6241 5480 7409 28380 4094 60220 34740 4372 10640 40220 12320 11930 13230 6062 6774 25720 4565 18160 35580 18250 9469 34640 5913 13150 39980 9301 4429 7227 8006 6908 12460 9477 6386 6697 7629 27930 12290 11930 8159 9189 3860 10330 35140 15730 7388 10660 9291 9872 7359 6939 8207 20280 12430 9798 4574 7676 22960 12280 61500 10320 5464 12690 7873 28890 9970 4568 29490 15340 6669 19170 7439 27000 10090 11990 26420 6412 13100 8117 9354 32400 9411 10730 7784 6920 33800 8880 8303 31140 11100 11860 4820 9654 2917 8438 21850 12890 8183 9466 28650 16190 48160 22840 35250 13940 95910 46880 6844 29450 9146 10330 10740 66620 26140 16550 4979 4060 78750 11240 32120 3913 5366 7237 21030 3852 4632 10410 16300 10290 19960 6729 26610 6174 5116 2526 12760 9365 10890 38900 11710 42750 13000 17150 9127 4047 8695 17120 9374 8162 31480 13590 4175 15580 22260 6593 9147 22920 28340 10550 42380 12680 6350 33580 156 14210 4350 13000 8283 20000 18680 19740 5699 19460 15140 38920 16200 8050 12980 15770 23660 6908 15570 4147 30770 8348 9721 6228 28890 9361 7316 11310 9575 2451 2742 35630 43390 8333 4677 7452 33010 7695 9542 63310 390 20470 18360 22870 8125 6634 6389 8713 9712 24790 3390 6739 10050 6753 26400 7787 6766 8655 12250 8253 10970 19740 22540 18920 31470 9627 11610 22890 11370 7950 7962 5169 31580 24540 27640 7873 6318 35290 7077 20740 15820 19820 16800 26940 8384 7360 5934 15360 12660 8248 5118 13000 8801 21090 10790 8500 7478 2153 37700 25680 7994 6965 8702 7580 39690 32400 31250 32640 25070 11420 10420 7965 10330 6665 11100 9285 1863 6935 12510 6654 12580 6208 8902 20340 43380 27260 7324 11520 34630 8889 11890 30980 8992 7625 14180 8750 14670 10640 7721 18430
2021-08-12 12130 9307 4528 7804 11550 5980 12030 9208 2673 19720 11920 13240 11940 15430 5268 27600 39080 29520 6082 21510 12410 12060 14220 19000 34760 27800 137900 10020 25970 15970 6678 7998 39280 6750 37980 10210 68010 13700 8484 36560 8944 14540 24630 50540 8162 32080 9055 11450 10560 14090 24950 14990 21860 9113 20500 9142 13140 30620 11290 12080 10350 11160 23550 2292 17470 17240 6913 11830 31730 31510 8576 7582 6408 12450 34620 3636 16290 451 6288 5503 7446 28870 4115 60430 34970 4385 10650 40390 12360 11970 13290 6098 6832 25810 4593 18270 35720 18410 9502 34690 5944 13170 40130 9325 4454 7288 8027 6951 12520 9532 6412 6713 7645 28090 12300 12000 8189 9253 3867 10370 35210 15780 7413 10720 9392 9888 7396 6974 8289 20370 12480 9825 4586 7703 23040 12360 61630 10390 5490 12730 7912 28950 9990 4586 29600 15370 6698 19260 7478 27050 10110 12040 26530 6454 13130 8150 9388 32510 9429 10750 7818 6958 33900 8930 8331 31260 11190 11890 4841 9700 2926 8473 21940 12930 8227 9505 28840 16260 48370 22920 35390 13990 96300 47070 6877 29550 9172 10420 10820 66840 26230 16620 4994 4072 79080 11320 32260 3923 5390 7249 21090 3875 4663 10470 16420 10350 20070 6740 26700 6197 5131 2534 12780 9417 10910 39070 11740 42880 13030 17270 9153 4079 8730 17230 9426 8258 31590 13670 4204 15660 22400 6623 9205 23030 28460 10620 42530 12770 6373 33680 157 14280 4363 13030 8308 20100 18900 19810 5730 19510 15200 39030 16260 8064 13040 15810 23700 6924 15650 4170 30850 8369 9754 6248 28970 9376 7358 11390 9606 2467 2757 35690 43580 8365 4698 7490 33080 7724 9565 63690 391 20550 18410 22980 8175 6657 6399 8766 9749 24900 3423 6764 10100 6776 26500 7841 6780 8705 12280 8316 10980 19810 22690 18970 31530 9656 11650 22950 11410 7976 8000 5188 31690 24640 27760 7919 6368 35390 7101 20800 15840 19860 16910 27040 8416 7386 5991 15410 12690 8286 5158 13040 8831 21130 10810 8575 7493 2180 37810 25780 8041 6988 8721 7612 39850 32490 31330 32700 25140 11470 10430 7986 10350 6699 11140 9342 1876 6961 12560 6690 12630 6233 8959 20440 43500 27430 7370 11580 34780 8925 11960 31040 9024 7671 14220 8788 14690 10680 7755 18500
2021-08-13 12170 9357 4551 7830 11580 5989 12110 9279 2686 19820 11960 13300 11980 15460 5283 27670 39140 29630 6102 21540 12480 12120 14330 19070 35050 27840 138400 10070 26000 16040 6687 8039 39360 6777 38230 10250 68210 13740 8521 36690 8969 14580 24800 50840 8207 32190 9089 11480 10610 14100 25010 15010 21930 9171 20580 9156 13190 30680 11310 12100 10370 11240 23630 2301 17510 17300 6963 11850 31900 31620 8601 7624 6430 12480 34710 3646 16380 455 6329 5524 7479 29290 4136 60600 35170 4397 10670 40540 12400 12010 13350 6134 6882 25910 4618 18380 35840 18580 9535 34730 5977 13190 40280 9349 4482 7348 8051 6992 12580 9588 6458 6726 7663 28250 12320 12060 8195 9316 3874 10410 35270 15820 7436 10770 9490 9917 7431 7006 8372 20460 12520 9848 4596 7729 23120 12420 61750 10450 5514 12760 7948 29010 10020 4603 29700 15400 6725 19340 7517 27100 10120 12100 26630 6490 13170 8173 9421 32610 9444 10770 7850 6995 33990 8980 8362 31350 11260 11910 4861 9742 2934 8503 22030 12980 8270 9534 29030 16320 48560 23000 35520 14030 96700 47240 6907 29660 9199 10510 10890 67020 26310 16660 5009 4083 79280 11380 32380 3933 5413 7260 21160 3900 4691 10530 16530 10420 20170 6752 26790 6220 5146 2542 12800 9468 10940 39230 11780 43010 13070 17390 9182 4114 8764 17340 9475 8332 31680 13740 4224 15730 22530 6649 9258 23130 28540 10700 42680 12840 6396 33770 157 14340 4376 13060 8331 20190 19090 19870 5756 19560 15260 39130 16310 8078 13110 15840 23730 6941 15720 4190 30920 8388 9789 6265 29050 9392 7396 11470 9630 2483 2771 35760 43690 8398 4719 7530 33130 7753 9587 64060 392 20630 18460 23090 8226 6679 6409 8819 9785 25010 3454 6788 10150 6798 26590 7895 6793 8752 12310 8375 11000 19870 22830 19020 31580 9683 11680 22980 11440 8003 8035 5206 31800 24720 27880 7963 6416 35490 7124 20870 15860 19900 17010 27120 8447 7411 6046 15450 12720 8322 5198 13070 8859 21150 10830 8647 7511 2207 37910 25860 8082 7013 8739 7641 40010 32550 31400 32760 25220 11510 10450 8008 10370 6732 11180 9393 1889 6985 12610 6726 12670 6256 9008 20540 43560 27590 7411 11630 34870 8959 12020 31090 9056 7714 14260 8824 14720 10720 7786 18570
2021-08-14 12190 9383 4574 7855 11610 5998 12190 9350 2699 19920 12000 13370 12010 15490 5297 27740 39200 29730 6122 21600 12550 12170 14430 19140 35330 27870 138800 10120 26040 16120 6696 8079 39430 6797 38490 10290 68410 13770 8561 36790 8994 14610 24960 51130 8251 32290 9123 11500 10630 14120 25070 15040 22010 9231 20650 9170 13220 30740 11320 12120 10390 11310 23710 2308 17550 17350 7012 11870 32070 31730 8626 7667 6452 12510 34790 3655 16470 458 6368 5545 7511 29490 4156 60750 35380 4410 10690 40700 12450 12050 13400 6169 6930 26010 4642 18490 35970 18690 9567 34780 6009 13210 40420 9372 4510 7408 8065 7032 12630 9644 6490 6738 7680 28400 12330 12110 8216 9379 3880 10450 35330 15860 7459 10820 9588 9937 7466 7027 8456 20560 12560 9882 4606 7754 23190 12490 61860 10510 5537 12800 7982 29080 10040 4621 29790 15420 6752 19420 7555 27150 10140 12150 26730 6525 13200 8197 9455 32710 9458 10790 7882 7032 34090 9030 8394 31420 11300 11930 4879 9782 2943 8531 22120 13020 8313 9565 29220 16380 48760 23080 35640 14070 97050 47380 6937 29760 9226 10600 10970 67170 26390 16700 5024 4094 79460 11430 32500 3943 5438 7270 21220 3927 4719 10590 16630 10480 20270 6764 26880 6243 5161 2550 12820 9519 10970 39370 11820 43150 13100 17500 9213 4149 8798 17440 9523 8352 31750 13820 4239 15800 22660 6673 9309 23230 28640 10770 42820 12920 6421 33860 158 14400 4389 13090 8353 20270 19290 19940 5782 19610 15320 39240 16360 8092 13170 15860 23750 6958 15780 4209 30990 8406 9806 6281 29130 9409 7433 11540 9651 2497 2785 35830 43800 8430 4740 7570 33210 7783 9608 64420 393 20710 18490 23190 8265 6699 6418 8873 9822 25110 3485 6812 10200 6819 26650 7948 6804 8797 12350 8433 11020 19930 22970 19070 31640 9708 11720 23030 11480 8031 8070 5224 31910 24810 27990 8006 6464 35580 7148 20930 15880 19930 17120 27190 8477 7435 6099 15490 12750 8358 5225 13110 8887 21200 10840 8719 7525 2234 38020 25920 8121 7037 8759 7669 40130 32640 31460 32820 25290 11550 10470 8030 10390 6764 11210 9442 1902 7009 12650 6762 12710 6278 9040 20620 43640 27740 7451 11680 34970 8992 12070 31180 9087 7756 14300 8858 14740 10760 7816 18650

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-08-08 to 2021-08-14

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-08-07 11934 9107 4402 7653 11376 5935 11544 8836 2604 19292 11688 12872 11701 15273 5172 27197 38676 28941 5978 21302 11980 11722 13593 18574 32965 27571 135073 9767 25804 15451 6638 7779 38868 6582 36623 9960 66940 13511 8238 35737 8813 14333 23799 48738 7907 31473 8858 11313 10361 13983 24592 14856 21485 8859 20074 9079 12880 30315 11166 11972 10234 10766 23061 2235 17285 16923 6637 11745 30684 30847 8433 7368 6297 12254 34083 3565 15714 426 6017 5385 7238 26042 3994 59378 33694 4317 10591 39469 12144 11734 12929 5909 6488 25304 4438 17749 35014 17707 9333 34402 5784 12982 39291 9200 4342 6969 7942 6719 12188 9261 6280 6614 7575 27284 12228 11595 8114 8913 3825 10157 34874 15534 7282 10436 8870 9784 7200 6827 7968 19869 12209 9717 4527 7562 22576 11953 60948 10036 5345 12550 7685 28617 9870 4496 28980 15239 6539 18767 7274 26752 10014 11761 25913 6217 12927 7957 9217 31887 9325 10658 7636 6759 33407 8682 8199 30634 10831 11780 4723 9441 2884 8259 21378 12682 7997 9369 27864 15895 47272 22470 34620 13788 93916 46178 6700 28974 9046 9910 10417 65631 25785 16350 4906 4011 77508 10974 31497 3874 5268 7182 20755 3775 4489 10150 15918 10027 19433 6694 26223 6077 5053 2491 12679 9148 10755 38088 11543 42232 12885 16571 9040 3925 8548 16651 9139 7726 31012 13306 4026 15170 21580 6440 8883 22459 27837 10289 41675 12280 6267 33192 154 13917 4296 12889 8166 19556 17744 19441 5552 19224 14882 38444 15928 7996 12687 15594 23456 6849 15243 4029 30426 8246 9525 6124 28548 9304 7116 10942 9465 2374 2674 35331 42910 8200 4589 7306 32696 7579 9432 61692 383 20129 18155 22432 7967 6531 6342 8510 9564 24289 3241 6632 9874 6656 26053 7563 6694 8432 12091 7973 10895 19426 21839 18688 31222 9488 11466 22734 11223 7842 7796 5085 31140 24080 27087 7671 6093 34814 6975 20451 15708 19648 16329 26585 8239 7252 5689 15184 12494 8091 4999 12874 8670 20912 10712 8182 7406 2037 37224 25352 7766 6867 8631 7426 39014 32188 30937 32360 24738 11252 10340 7887 10231 6524 10928 9016 1804 6820 12264 6505 12368 6084 8675 19829 43015 26501 7104 11272 33970 8723 11566 30771 8851 7424 13973 8571 14570 10444 7562 18154
2021-08-08 11950 9128 4420 7675 11400 5948 11620 8914 2614 19390 11730 12930 11730 15320 5183 27260 38790 29020 5996 21340 12020 11770 13650 18640 33190 27650 135500 9820 25820 15520 6648 7818 38920 6608 36840 9990 67130 13540 8284 35850 8833 14360 23930 48970 7942 31560 8883 11340 10390 14010 24640 14880 21580 8912 20140 9113 12920 30360 11180 11990 10250 10850 23130 2242 17350 16960 6689 11790 30780 30950 8460 7405 6315 12270 34160 3573 15760 430 6046 5412 7265 26350 4016 59460 33820 4330 10640 39610 12180 11760 12960 5937 6520 25390 4456 17850 35140 17840 9361 34510 5812 13010 39410 9223 4372 7020 7957 6744 12250 9314 6303 6639 7590 27400 12260 11660 8130 8960 3830 10200 34980 15570 7300 10490 8965 9805 7236 6852 8050 19940 12240 9738 4538 7584 22630 11990 61040 10080 5372 12580 7720 28710 9910 4510 29080 15280 6557 18840 7307 26830 10050 11810 26000 6244 12950 7981 9249 31980 9356 10700 7663 6790 33520 8726 8242 30720 10880 11800 4742 9469 2893 8288 21460 12720 8043 9392 28050 15950 47440 22530 34730 13820 94230 46340 6724 29090 9070 9990 10490 65820 25860 16390 4920 4025 77680 11030 31600 3886 5289 7190 20830 3805 4514 10190 16020 10070 19500 6710 26320 6094 5066 2500 12700 9200 10800 38200 11570 42350 12910 16680 9070 3959 8576 16710 9176 7786 31090 13380 4044 15230 21640 6458 8911 22540 27900 10360 41810 12320 6291 33260 154 13970 4310 12910 8183 19650 17870 19510 5568 19290 14940 38540 15980 8025 12720 15620 23480 6862 15290 4045 30480 8256 9543 6138 28650 9342 7138 10990 9482 2385 2686 35460 42990 8234 4600 7348 32770 7604 9459 62010 385 20210 18190 22510 8015 6548 6360 8559 9593 24380 3268 6655 9920 6673 26130 7612 6717 8461 12110 8008 10930 19470 21960 18730 31320 9519 11500 22800 11250 7871 7828 5102 31230 24150 27160 7713 6132 34880 6994 20500 15730 19680 16450 26640 8264 7282 5735 15220 12520 8121 5030 12900 8695 20960 10740 8237 7419 2064 37330 25400 7793 6886 8650 7455 39120 32280 31030 32480 24800 11290 10370 7915 10260 6553 10970 9055 1817 6839 12300 6540 12400 6109 8713 19910 43070 26670 7136 11320 34060 8753 11610 30840 8875 7463 14000 8603 14620 10480 7597 18230
2021-08-09 12000 9164 4440 7691 11420 5961 11710 8987 2627 19480 11770 13000 11770 15370 5198 27330 38940 29080 6013 21380 12060 11810 13720 18700 33480 27720 135900 9860 25850 15620 6655 7854 38970 6630 37090 10020 67300 13580 8333 36010 8845 14390 24070 49190 7983 31650 8916 11380 10420 14050 24690 14910 21680 8965 20210 9138 12980 30420 11200 12010 10270 10940 23200 2253 17410 17000 6752 11830 30900 31060 8484 7443 6332 12310 34260 3586 15830 435 6088 5435 7299 26630 4035 59600 33940 4340 10680 39780 12210 11790 13000 5966 6569 25480 4474 17950 35250 17970 9389 34610 5838 13040 39590 9251 4395 7067 7974 6776 12310 9365 6326 6673 7604 27490 12300 11730 8147 9010 3836 10240 35090 15610 7320 10530 9070 9830 7274 6878 8109 20010 12280 9760 4555 7614 22670 12030 61190 10140 5395 12610 7754 28810 9940 4528 29210 15310 6575 18940 7334 26920 10090 11860 26110 6280 12980 8009 9278 32110 9399 10730 7688 6825 33620 8767 8281 30850 10930 11820 4766 9512 2900 8321 21560 12760 8085 9424 28240 16010 47670 22600 34900 13840 94670 46540 6752 29200 9091 10080 10560 66060 25920 16440 4931 4039 77950 11100 31740 3893 5303 7201 20890 3826 4543 10230 16140 10130 19570 6728 26410 6108 5083 2514 12710 9249 10860 38300 11590 42490 12950 16800 9099 3973 8607 16780 9220 7851 31210 13450 4068 15280 21710 6479 8943 22640 27970 10420 42000 12370 6307 33330 155 14030 4326 12940 8204 19750 17960 19590 5596 19350 14990 38650 16030 8048 12770 15660 23510 6870 15360 4065 30570 8268 9558 6162 28800 9373 7162 11050 9502 2401 2702 35580 43110 8262 4611 7379 32870 7625 9490 62410 387 20300 18230 22560 8063 6573 6383 8605 9624 24450 3295 6673 9970 6686 26230 7664 6745 8484 12140 8043 10980 19510 22100 18770 31450 9549 11530 22890 11270 7890 7859 5122 31310 24230 27210 7758 6174 34940 7011 20550 15750 19710 16580 26710 8285 7308 5791 15260 12540 8142 5068 12930 8723 21020 10770 8330 7429 2092 37460 25470 7837 6907 8665 7491 39270 32410 31150 32620 24860 11320 10400 7938 10300 6584 11010 9110 1827 6867 12350 6574 12450 6136 8759 20010 43130 26840 7173 11370 34200 8782 11670 30930 8896 7507 14040 8643 14660 10500 7629 18290
2021-08-10 12040 9214 4463 7705 11450 5974 11780 9060 2639 19580 11810 13060 11810 15410 5211 27400 39080 29150 6029 21410 12100 11850 13790 18770 33760 27780 136300 9900 25890 15710 6662 7903 39020 6657 37370 10050 67480 13610 8382 36150 8857 14420 24220 49420 8025 31740 8945 11410 10450 14090 24740 14940 21780 9023 20270 9161 13020 30480 11210 12020 10280 11030 23270 2262 17470 17030 6808 11860 31020 31160 8506 7482 6349 12350 34370 3597 15890 440 6127 5456 7330 26910 4054 59760 34050 4349 10730 39940 12240 11820 13040 5996 6612 25570 4492 18050 35350 18130 9419 34720 5870 13070 39750 9277 4420 7117 7992 6808 12370 9419 6357 6701 7621 27590 12330 11810 8172 9056 3840 10280 35190 15650 7337 10560 9174 9853 7311 6906 8171 20100 12320 9779 4568 7641 22710 12060 61340 10190 5417 12640 7783 28900 9970 4545 29320 15340 6593 19030 7364 27010 10120 11900 26200 6313 13000 8033 9309 32210 9436 10760 7715 6861 33720 8814 8320 30960 10980 11830 4787 9543 2906 8350 21650 12800 8128 9453 28420 16070 47880 22660 35080 13870 95100 46740 6780 29320 9110 10170 10640 66300 25990 16490 4941 4052 78210 11160 31860 3899 5318 7209 20960 3850 4570 10270 16260 10190 19630 6751 26500 6124 5097 2524 12730 9301 10920 38390 11610 42620 12980 16910 9130 3989 8640 16840 9265 7915 31300 13520 4088 15330 21790 6497 8973 22730 28040 10500 42170 12410 6327 33400 155 14090 4342 12960 8226 19880 18050 19670 5623 19410 15040 38750 16070 8072 12820 15700 23550 6880 15420 4081 30650 8280 9573 6183 28940 9405 7184 11100 9523 2416 2715 35710 43210 8291 4625 7413 32970 7648 9516 62800 388 20390 18270 22620 8113 6597 6404 8656 9659 24510 3322 6693 10020 6698 26330 7723 6772 8509 12170 8078 11010 19550 22230 18800 31580 9575 11550 22960 11290 7910 7890 5141 31410 24300 27270 7800 6221 34990 7031 20610 15770 19740 16700 26760 8307 7334 5845 15300 12570 8164 5104 12960 8751 21080 10800 8411 7439 2118 37580 25530 7879 6930 8682 7528 39390 32520 31250 32750 24930 11350 10430 7962 10340 6614 11050 9159 1837 6894 12400 6607 12500 6160 8805 20100 43190 27000 7209 11410 34330 8807 11730 31020 8924 7549 14070 8680 14700 10530 7662 18360
2021-08-11 12090 9256 4485 7718 11480 5988 11860 9133 2651 19670 11850 13120 11840 15460 5223 27470 39220 29220 6045 21440 12130 11890 13870 18830 34020 27840 136700 9950 25910 15790 6670 7950 39080 6682 37630 10080 67660 13650 8432 36300 8870 14450 24370 49670 8067 31830 8976 11440 10490 14120 24810 14960 21880 9086 20340 9188 13080 30540 11230 12040 10290 11110 23330 2270 17520 17060 6874 11890 31140 31270 8527 7520 6366 12380 34480 3606 15950 444 6164 5477 7361 27190 4073 59940 34160 4357 10780 40100 12270 11840 13080 6028 6653 25660 4511 18160 35460 18300 9449 34830 5897 13110 39900 9302 4447 7166 8008 6844 12420 9473 6386 6733 7638 27690 12370 11890 8201 9105 3845 10320 35290 15680 7357 10610 9278 9878 7348 6937 8236 20180 12360 9795 4581 7667 22750 12100 61500 10240 5440 12670 7810 28980 10000 4562 29440 15370 6609 19120 7395 27090 10150 11960 26280 6345 13030 8055 9340 32310 9475 10800 7743 6899 33810 8867 8361 31070 11030 11850 4807 9580 2913 8377 21730 12840 8171 9484 28600 16130 48090 22730 35260 13890 95570 46950 6809 29430 9131 10260 10710 66550 26060 16550 4949 4062 78470 11240 31980 3906 5334 7218 21030 3876 4595 10310 16380 10250 19700 6769 26590 6142 5115 2534 12740 9354 10970 38490 11630 42760 13020 17010 9162 4006 8671 16910 9311 7981 31410 13590 4112 15370 21880 6513 9005 22830 28110 10570 42340 12450 6347 33480 155 14140 4357 12990 8249 20010 18150 19750 5646 19470 15090 38850 16110 8098 12870 15750 23590 6892 15480 4096 30740 8293 9586 6204 29090 9438 7204 11160 9548 2431 2728 35830 43340 8324 4638 7450 33070 7673 9541 63180 390 20470 18310 22700 8165 6619 6426 8710 9695 24570 3348 6714 10080 6710 26420 7778 6799 8538 12200 8112 11040 19590 22370 18840 31710 9601 11580 23040 11320 7931 7921 5160 31510 24360 27330 7838 6274 35050 7062 20660 15780 19780 16820 26830 8328 7362 5898 15340 12590 8188 5142 12990 8778 21130 10830 8498 7449 2142 37680 25600 7916 6953 8699 7560 39550 32630 31370 32890 24990 11380 10460 7988 10380 6644 11090 9211 1848 6918 12450 6642 12550 6187 8867 20180 43260 27160 7249 11460 34460 8837 11790 31100 8955 7590 14110 8720 14740 10560 7694 18430
2021-08-12 12130 9287 4508 7731 11500 6001 11940 9207 2664 19770 11880 13170 11880 15500 5236 27540 39350 29320 6061 21470 12180 11930 13940 18900 34300 27900 137200 9990 25960 15880 6678 7988 39150 6717 37890 10100 67850 13680 8481 36450 8882 14480 24530 49880 8107 31920 9006 11480 10530 14170 24870 14980 21980 9148 20410 9215 13130 30600 11240 12060 10310 11200 23400 2278 17580 17090 6929 11920 31260 31370 8547 7559 6385 12410 34570 3616 16010 448 6201 5497 7394 27450 4092 60130 34280 4365 10820 40250 12300 11880 13110 6054 6692 25740 4530 18280 35560 18450 9479 34930 5926 13130 40080 9323 4476 7210 8027 6871 12480 9530 6416 6759 7654 27790 12400 11960 8231 9159 3849 10360 35380 15720 7373 10650 9382 9902 7386 6969 8301 20270 12400 9825 4590 7691 22800 12140 61640 10300 5464 12710 7835 29070 10020 4580 29550 15400 6626 19210 7426 27170 10180 12020 26370 6378 13050 8082 9367 32420 9516 10830 7773 6939 33900 8912 8403 31180 11090 11870 4827 9616 2920 8403 21820 12890 8214 9524 28790 16180 48270 22800 35440 13930 95990 47140 6840 29540 9156 10350 10780 66790 26130 16610 4959 4075 78750 11310 32100 3912 5353 7226 21100 3904 4621 10360 16500 10320 19760 6785 26690 6161 5130 2547 12750 9409 11010 38590 11650 42900 13050 17110 9194 4027 8703 16990 9349 8043 31510 13670 4142 15410 21960 6527 9036 22920 28190 10650 42500 12490 6369 33570 156 14200 4373 13010 8268 20100 18270 19830 5668 19530 15150 38950 16150 8123 12910 15770 23620 6906 15540 4112 30810 8306 9599 6223 29200 9472 7227 11220 9571 2445 2741 35950 43450 8353 4654 7488 33170 7699 9566 63570 392 20550 18340 22760 8212 6641 6444 8767 9724 24620 3375 6735 10130 6722 26520 7836 6825 8567 12230 8138 11070 19620 22490 18890 31820 9626 11610 23140 11340 7956 7953 5180 31620 24410 27380 7876 6320 35120 7084 20720 15800 19810 16940 26900 8352 7391 5948 15380 12610 8214 5181 13020 8806 21190 10860 8586 7458 2167 37770 25680 7958 6977 8715 7595 39680 32760 31480 33030 25060 11420 10500 8015 10420 6674 11130 9264 1859 6945 12480 6676 12590 6211 8918 20260 43370 27320 7281 11510 34610 8865 11840 31180 8984 7630 14140 8755 14790 10590 7722 18510
2021-08-13 12170 9325 4528 7744 11530 6014 12010 9281 2679 19860 11920 13240 11920 15550 5250 27610 39450 29400 6077 21500 12220 11970 14000 18960 34540 27950 137700 10040 25990 15960 6685 8029 39210 6741 38150 10130 68040 13710 8527 36590 8897 14510 24670 50070 8146 32020 9029 11510 10560 14200 24930 15010 22080 9210 20470 9244 13180 30670 11260 12070 10320 11290 23470 2285 17630 17120 6982 11940 31360 31480 8570 7598 6403 12470 34660 3626 16060 452 6237 5516 7422 27700 4111 60270 34390 4374 10850 40400 12340 11910 13150 6079 6731 25830 4549 18380 35640 18600 9511 35040 5954 13160 40230 9346 4506 7254 8048 6898 12540 9589 6448 6782 7670 27890 12440 12030 8252 9213 3854 10410 35480 15750 7388 10680 9487 9927 7424 6994 8368 20340 12430 9855 4602 7713 22840 12180 61780 10350 5488 12740 7859 29150 10050 4598 29660 15430 6643 19310 7459 27240 10220 12060 26440 6410 13070 8110 9395 32510 9551 10860 7801 6973 33990 8952 8437 31280 11150 11890 4847 9653 2927 8429 21910 12930 8258 9552 28950 16240 48470 22870 35600 13970 96330 47300 6869 29650 9183 10450 10850 67000 26190 16650 4967 4088 78960 11370 32210 3919 5375 7233 21170 3932 4646 10410 16610 10370 19810 6802 26780 6181 5146 2558 12760 9465 11050 38700 11670 43030 13080 17210 9227 4052 8738 17070 9388 8105 31600 13740 4166 15450 22040 6542 9066 23010 28250 10730 42660 12530 6392 33650 156 14250 4388 13030 8286 20180 18390 19900 5687 19580 15210 39040 16190 8150 12950 15810 23650 6920 15580 4127 30880 8323 9610 6239 29350 9507 7246 11270 9591 2460 2752 36070 43520 8378 4670 7521 33250 7726 9591 63940 394 20630 18380 22820 8259 6662 6463 8814 9757 24680 3402 6757 10180 6735 26610 7891 6849 8592 12260 8165 11100 19650 22620 18930 31920 9650 11650 23210 11370 7979 7986 5198 31720 24470 27430 7916 6361 35170 7103 20780 15810 19840 17050 26960 8369 7420 5994 15420 12630 8243 5217 13050 8834 21250 10880 8657 7468 2190 37890 25740 8000 7001 8732 7625 39800 32860 31580 33160 25130 11440 10530 8043 10450 6705 11170 9304 1870 6974 12520 6712 12640 6233 8958 20340 43430 27480 7311 11550 34690 8890 11890 31260 9009 7670 14170 8790 14830 10630 7753 18580
2021-08-14 12200 9349 4547 7757 11550 6026 12090 9357 2690 19960 11950 13280 11960 15590 5263 27670 39550 29480 6091 21530 12250 12020 14040 19030 34750 28000 138100 10090 26000 16040 6693 8060 39260 6762 38390 10170 68230 13730 8573 36720 8914 14540 24820 50260 8184 32110 9050 11540 10600 14220 24970 15030 22190 9272 20540 9273 13220 30700 11270 12080 10330 11370 23540 2293 17690 17150 7023 11970 31470 31560 8594 7637 6423 12490 34750 3635 16120 456 6274 5533 7450 27920 4130 60360 34500 4382 10890 40550 12370 11940 13190 6104 6770 25930 4569 18490 35720 18730 9542 35150 5979 13190 40360 9367 4536 7301 8066 6920 12600 9642 6474 6802 7684 27990 12470 12100 8269 9256 3859 10450 35570 15780 7400 10710 9592 9950 7462 7007 8435 20400 12470 9883 4614 7732 22870 12210 61900 10410 5511 12770 7884 29240 10080 4615 29760 15460 6660 19390 7491 27310 10250 12100 26510 6438 13090 8133 9423 32580 9580 10900 7828 7004 34080 8997 8469 31370 11200 11910 4866 9684 2933 8454 21990 12970 8302 9573 29120 16300 48650 22940 35730 13990 96620 47420 6896 29750 9210 10530 10920 67210 26250 16670 4977 4096 79160 11430 32300 3926 5396 7240 21240 3961 4671 10450 16720 10410 19860 6821 26880 6201 5158 2569 12780 9521 11080 38810 11690 43150 13110 17310 9259 4080 8770 17140 9428 8154 31680 13820 4184 15480 22110 6555 9094 23100 28310 10810 42800 12570 6414 33730 157 14310 4403 13050 8302 20240 18510 19970 5706 19630 15270 39140 16230 8177 12980 15840 23670 6935 15630 4142 30930 8335 9619 6250 29440 9542 7263 11320 9610 2473 2763 36180 43590 8399 4685 7555 33350 7754 9617 64310 396 20710 18400 22890 8298 6682 6483 8865 9791 24740 3430 6779 10220 6748 26670 7940 6872 8617 12280 8198 11130 19690 22740 18980 32000 9675 11680 23260 11400 7999 8018 5214 31820 24520 27470 7952 6396 35210 7118 20840 15830 19860 17160 27020 8386 7445 6036 15470 12650 8271 5246 13070 8862 21300 10910 8712 7477 2212 37980 25780 8031 7021 8750 7648 39870 32970 31660 33260 25190 11470 10560 8070 10480 6735 11210 9340 1881 6996 12550 6747 12680 6251 8986 20420 43480 27640 7337 11590 34790 8910 11930 31320 9028 7710 14200 8824 14880 10660 7783 18650

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.