COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-08-10 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-08-10

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-08-10

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-06-2112-272021-07-062021-07-062021-07-052021-06-232021-07-112021-07-1107-212021-03-252021-07-062021-07-052021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-062021-07-052021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-052021-07-092021-07-0712-292021-07-0612-272021-07-0612-072021-07-062021-05-102021-07-052021-01-012021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-272021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-052021-07-022021-07-062021-06-302021-07-072021-06-222021-07-062021-07-072021-06-202021-07-042021-07-062021-07-012021-07-072021-07-172021-07-0610-282021-07-042021-07-06 --2021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-052021-07-062021-07-062021-06-222021-06-202021-07-062021-07-272021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-052021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-052021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-01-022021-07-0512-212021-07-062021-07-202021-07-062021-07-0712-222021-06-212021-07-0707-212021-07-062021-07-062021-06-212021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-06-132021-07-062021-06-222021-07-062021-07-052021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-052021-07-062021-07-082021-07-062021-07-052021-07-062021-07-272021-06-252021-07-082021-07-06 --2021-06-202021-07-052021-07-062021-07-042021-07-052021-07-042021-07-0610-042021-07-062021-07-072021-07-052021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-06-262021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-052021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-06-272021-07-062021-07-062021-07-082021-07-072021-07-032021-06-202021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-112021-07-062021-06-2312-212021-07-0612-212021-07-072021-07-072021-07-092021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-0212-272021-07-062021-07-082021-07-052021-01-032021-07-022021-07-072021-07-062021-07-272021-07-1512-262021-07-052021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-042021-07-082021-07-052021-07-0612-082021-07-062021-07-052021-07-082021-07-0612-212021-07-182021-07-062021-06-272021-07-072021-07-062021-07-032021-07-042021-03-182021-07-062021-07-062021-07-032021-07-052021-07-062021-07-052021-07-1207-212021-07-052021-07-072021-07-032021-07-062021-07-2710-042021-07-042021-07-062021-07-072021-07-032021-07-052021-07-062021-07-082021-07-052021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-052021-07-052021-06-292021-06-222021-07-072021-07-052021-06-222021-01-062021-07-072021-01-012021-07-062021-07-062021-07-052021-07-302021-07-062021-07-062021-07-0610-042021-07-0512-272021-07-062021-07-062021-07-052021-07-062021-07-052021-07-072021-07-052021-07-062021-07-032021-07-052021-07-072021-07-07 --2021-07-072021-07-062021-07-0612-23 --2021-07-022021-07-062021-07-062021-07-0607-212021-07-062021-07-052021-07-0612-2112-292021-07-062021-07-062021-07-052021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-0510-042021-07-242021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-0512-272021-06-272021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-022021-07-062021-07-052021-07-062021-06-202021-07-062021-07-062021-07-052021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-06-222021-07-062021-07-032021-07-062021-07-062021-07-052021-07-282021-07-202021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-0612-062021-07-142021-07-072021-07-052021-07-072021-07-062021-07-052021-07-062021-07-042021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-132021-07-072021-07-0712-1310-042021-07-072021-07-042021-06-242021-07-052021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-07-052021-07-072021-07-012021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-06-292021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-07-082021-06-30
Peak daily increment 137 102 49 115 107 84 97 88 115 106 127 92 62 95 57 91 255 278 48 141 148 143 210 103 360 173 1249 70 157 155 95 57 208 42 484 103 469 102 51 170 68 53 208 614 58 257 92 71 98 73 158 32 152 61 157 67 60 98 114 24 96 93 221 41 114 169 71 266 241 83 69 68 121 446 20 140 13 66 114 44 299 39 612 373 52 96 218 120 142 89 51 80 246 47 170 396 151 39 260 119 184 181 296 43 91 76 61 118 84 112 64 66 293 73 83 58 88 22 80 139 103 59 109 110 81 63 36 237 61 64 56 82 276 122 631 90 55 63 112 159 66 23 224 77 83 150 55 150 60 112 136 62 148 45 64 143 87 79 74 86 191 75 83 126 99 71 74 55 18 58 183 82 64 70 236 90 262 311 285 114 712 284 52 204 78 99 84 727 107 118 40 46 438 77 161 41 69 105 120 43 35 99 186 71 272 97 192 49 22 30 23 91 115 389 104 150 35 136 186 72 92 300 74 75 389 95 34 203 230 78 95 122 324 72 258 148 30 257 4 131 21 57 113 154 333 203 41 104 81 119 293 55 110 150 58 52 136 63 217 74 70 47 201 80 47 116 67 18 244 253 94 83 196 65 94 465 24 164 58 275 97 42 47 69 69 345 45 37 64 69 460 58 67 76 92 105 102 303 196 148 234 68 124 137 87 76 53 43 240 335 239 70 66 433 55 144 99 46 143 213 83 57 74 134 114 91 40 38 77 99 104 127 101 29 216 186 57 63 28 75 353 181 153 307 192 109 70 68 81 36 97 83 29 79 92 45 102 66 63 132 371 340 60 78 244 55 90 178 99 60 65 74 114 120 70 141
Days since peak 50 226 35 35 36 48 30 30 385 138 35 36 35 34 35 33 35 36 35 35 35 35 35 36 32 34 224 35 226 35 246 35 92 36 221 35 35 35 14 35 35 35 35 34 35 35 35 35 36 39 35 41 34 49 35 34 51 37 35 40 34 24 35 286 37 35 35 35 35 35 36 35 35 49 51 35 14 35 35 34 35 35 36 34 35 34 35 35 36 35 35 35 220 36 232 35 21 35 34 231 50 34 385 35 35 50 35 35 34 58 35 49 35 36 35 35 35 36 35 33 35 36 35 14 46 33 35 51 36 35 37 36 37 35 310 35 34 36 35 35 34 45 35 35 35 35 36 34 35 35 34 34 36 44 35 35 33 34 38 51 34 35 35 30 35 48 232 35 232 34 34 32 35 35 35 34 39 226 35 33 36 219 39 34 35 14 26 227 36 35 34 35 35 37 33 36 35 245 35 36 33 35 232 23 35 44 34 35 38 37 145 35 35 38 36 35 36 29 385 36 34 38 35 14 310 37 35 34 38 36 35 33 36 34 35 33 36 36 42 49 34 36 49 216 34 221 35 35 36 11 35 35 35 310 36 226 35 35 36 35 36 34 36 35 38 36 34 34 34 35 35 230 39 35 35 35 385 35 36 35 232 224 35 35 36 35 35 35 35 36 310 17 35 35 35 36 226 44 34 35 34 35 34 39 35 36 35 51 35 35 36 34 34 36 35 35 35 35 34 35 49 35 38 35 35 36 13 21 34 35 34 35 247 27 34 36 34 35 36 35 37 35 34 35 35 35 34 35 34 28 34 34 240 310 34 37 47 36 35 34 34 33 36 34 40 34 34 34 35 35 42 34 34 36 33 41
Last total 12035 9249 4479 7767 11567 5989 11815 9109 2663 19674 11857 13138 11825 15496 5236 27419 39106 29330 6066 21502 12202 11874 13834 18822 33701 27889 136555 9954 25944 15709 6684 7914 39127 6660 37346 10066 67686 13654 8378 36117 8904 14439 24310 49563 8011 31812 8982 11454 10512 14096 24807 14955 21848 9057 20338 9215 13048 30517 11267 12060 10338 11073 23349 2280 17584 17081 6818 11908 31090 31219 8524 7513 6377 12381 34483 3623 15921 454 6133 5481 7311 26987 4095 59998 34182 4371 10756 39951 12305 11874 13094 6016 6626 25772 4519 18166 35563 18174 9489 34835 5909 13063 39704 9282 4449 7191 8013 6842 12374 9452 6399 6724 7646 27813 12383 11788 8237 9090 3857 10304 35191 15660 7382 10642 9130 9885 7342 6939 8306 20239 12386 9828 4598 7662 22803 12137 61457 10269 5481 12684 7845 28921 10048 4592 29330 15417 6620 19029 7416 27095 10125 11964 26161 6313 13024 8040 9352 32193 9551 10822 7763 6905 33723 8859 8366 30936 11027 11891 4794 9529 2923 8468 21693 12829 8167 9515 28573 16073 47903 22737 35083 13989 95323 46760 6782 29401 9174 10116 10666 66383 26057 16513 4977 4091 78335 11240 31815 3922 5411 7210 21001 3870 4584 10332 16275 10270 19672 6751 26520 6160 5102 2528 12777 9325 10926 38489 11692 42693 13024 16911 9193 4093 8665 16979 9268 7920 31352 13593 4077 15434 21844 6537 9044 22789 28158 10516 42263 12452 6359 33536 166 14085 4358 12975 8241 20010 18201 19742 5631 19396 15146 38762 16152 8118 12868 15740 23601 6920 15439 4083 30690 8307 9606 6178 29037 9455 7211 11093 9553 2410 2764 35759 43350 8313 4677 7600 33054 7692 9530 62670 397 20495 18343 22798 8137 6613 6399 8712 9707 24694 3338 6747 10071 6752 26380 7723 6810 8588 12245 8151 11035 19570 22219 18873 31635 9597 11659 23036 11370 7962 7928 5133 31548 24351 27421 7781 6253 35116 7078 20703 15829 19822 16656 26905 8355 7332 5900 15442 12619 8224 5114 13024 8781 21073 10838 8452 7462 2124 37653 25743 7899 6994 8692 7535 39543 32598 31230 32774 25028 11412 10445 8003 10373 6610 11095 9187 1857 6914 12382 6633 12480 6176 8840 20071 43413 27110 7246 11448 34398 8864 11744 31136 8961 7565 14110 8707 14757 10617 7680 18436
Last daily increment 35 37 21 40 47 18 99 106 34 153 48 90 46 82 26 75 124 130 26 72 62 39 76 70 319 117 428 69 44 70 16 35 93 29 232 31 225 32 55 103 28 30 132 254 47 119 42 56 42 39 62 28 133 57 93 48 48 46 45 20 46 100 95 6 103 53 71 45 116 125 27 45 20 37 140 21 65 2 23 32 19 309 31 177 141 25 44 152 58 42 52 23 30 148 27 143 200 146 56 149 31 31 126 30 38 88 27 44 59 59 42 34 24 170 51 50 46 63 13 35 106 41 30 73 85 39 43 24 148 119 51 42 23 33 84 76 192 87 43 52 42 101 57 13 110 48 33 65 51 108 29 69 85 30 43 38 41 105 80 56 44 42 103 68 48 67 60 33 29 31 10 81 85 48 66 45 240 49 224 86 161 56 487 188 28 134 51 79 79 250 94 55 23 26 265 109 126 15 52 8 62 35 31 51 118 90 62 17 98 22 12 9 28 60 65 150 36 163 42 118 58 48 32 108 51 65 128 107 21 96 98 25 52 83 110 56 205 61 30 128 4 50 22 27 39 139 161 95 23 52 82 99 76 29 39 56 51 21 58 17 68 21 23 20 148 57 28 51 30 9 39 131 138 42 20 94 116 45 33 299 1 151 77 118 46 26 24 65 44 153 29 34 63 26 105 45 38 44 54 45 49 50 120 68 151 44 78 85 53 35 44 15 120 87 93 23 65 97 35 90 35 36 99 118 31 20 76 79 37 40 36 60 29 47 50 107 12 24 154 124 41 31 17 23 157 121 101 108 107 58 36 39 47 35 53 54 16 23 36 42 50 34 50 82 125 205 45 68 144 44 61 108 30 35 31 37 75 62 41 91
Last week 201 261 158 214 312 93 511 546 107 766 320 497 250 406 107 444 790 741 169 379 429 354 473 463 1530 588 3027 396 267 468 83 267 497 191 1506 237 1467 258 263 785 188 201 985 1598 213 661 238 252 286 226 459 178 679 397 496 271 310 392 172 171 173 598 564 61 538 307 360 322 770 725 204 277 164 237 715 75 406 11 201 191 152 1803 170 1164 943 113 326 945 311 238 282 215 232 821 149 828 994 943 261 783 212 143 848 150 237 418 130 226 397 411 253 180 135 1056 263 355 228 379 58 314 609 277 165 352 549 184 260 218 684 617 256 228 127 191 439 328 873 402 231 266 304 619 343 150 656 336 150 505 290 589 214 372 523 195 197 165 256 583 322 309 227 294 670 353 334 593 398 193 120 187 76 284 588 286 324 269 1350 364 1227 499 932 366 2688 1148 172 810 249 440 491 1416 544 354 128 129 1544 498 633 96 248 53 516 224 164 358 757 449 490 114 615 167 103 67 180 375 320 789 269 945 263 653 258 329 245 631 278 364 660 557 107 447 527 155 269 596 633 464 1079 323 197 633 9 343 106 174 135 824 928 570 131 358 480 601 427 243 324 230 237 139 386 112 520 103 149 99 890 297 171 287 171 65 145 837 885 256 135 466 640 223 192 1970 10 656 340 692 335 140 118 421 263 754 191 205 390 161 630 306 198 269 256 331 265 302 763 356 774 215 364 543 267 246 254 108 801 517 632 257 320 605 187 513 219 290 682 613 219 182 389 447 225 255 238 269 201 321 214 505 109 161 833 664 213 232 139 221 1044 776 579 863 531 305 228 232 273 186 308 299 110 170 235 252 208 188 314 472 733 1135 251 345 767 249 341 698 211 268 205 254 374 296 225 566
Previous peak date07-2107-2112-2712-2612-2707-2112-2112-26 --12-2112-2112-2712-0712-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1111-0212-2110-0712-2211-0212-2710-1310-13 --2021-01-0710-1511-1311-0212-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2811-0212-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3010-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-21 --11-0212-2212-2812-2512-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-3007-2107-2112-26 --12-2912-2612-2712-2112-2411-0212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-2810-272021-02-2510-0110-1412-2712-0712-2607-2107-2112-27 --12-2412-2907-2112-2412-2111-0907-2112-2607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-06 --07-2112-2312-2712-2107-2112-2512-2512-2510-1710-2912-2607-2112-2112-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-2712-2812-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-2212-2907-2112-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0107-2112-2806-1112-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2210-2709-2912-2912-3011-0211-0212-2112-2712-2711-0212-2109-2812-2712-2212-2112-3111-022021-01-0212-22 --2021-01-07 --12-2112-2112-2112-2210-1212-2112-3107-2112-2212-2712-0607-2112-0712-2812-2911-0211-0312-2712-0612-27 --12-0810-1410-2612-2612-2107-2111-0112-2112-3011-0412-2111-0312-2712-212021-01-0111-0212-2911-0210-22 --12-2712-2812-2607-21 --11-0211-0212-0611-0212-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2207-2112-0610-1112-2112-2710-1912-1310-1112-1310-1812-3012-2810-1312-252021-01-2612-3011-0212-2910-3107-2112-2112-2812-2912-2211-02 --12-3012-2512-25 --07-2112-2212-2112-2812-26 --2021-01-0412-2211-0907-2112-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2810-2412-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-2712-2207-2112-2812-2711-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2510-182021-01-0212-2612-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-2112-2212-2212-27 -- --12-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-20 --07-2111-0212-0707-2112-2212-2812-2210-1612-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-2712-3112-2812-2512-3112-2112-3012-2611-02
Previous peak daily increment 605 360 61 88 97 285 134 73 260 170 110 176 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 128 109 277 233 262 426 1200 75 166 98 58 234 50 355 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 1167 107 508 94 186 62 122 160 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 107 303 292 268 52 197 249 283 59 91 71 65 1221 82 243 35 53 94 288 34 551 288 38 181 598 151 69 189 72 58 164 27 206 248 187 118 322 216 697 536 60 52 370 76 160 106 184 51 231 206 102 163 146 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 457 90 74 110 661 150 125 54 42 127 82 1697 92 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 218 59 201 57 401 172 103 338 103 106 136 120 476 101 159 52 139 442 57 115 452 143 83 239 134 44 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 153 428 107 1522 469 104 457 71 229 102 480 274 200 90 36 2166 92 419 46 298 37 62 153 109 105 213 296 361 79 62 65 191 105 63 2512 85 723 190 212 23 53 137 105 50 969 105 58 123 106 41 56 277 158 121 1362 90 68 257 125 44 108 227 135 347 43 156 174 623 105 81 176 445 286 41 188 39 194 138 65 96 198 80 85 67 174 36 28 417 448 80 147 87 407 65 131 557 209 244 167 218 110 102 69 181 42 86 73 839 94 79 108 80 66 75 115 248 293 451 131 156 222 94 55 112 144 189 138 197 67 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 172 56 109 46 140 349 90 44 138 123 360 138 51 559 151 90 110 120 84 245 329 449 390 227 260 138 117 160 65 154 87 296 165 42 369 67 115 217 319 264 83 148 431 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 573
Low between peaks 0 -1 -3 -2 -7 0 3 1 13 -11 2 -7 -17 -8 3 -2 9 -1 -30 -13 2 -14 -12 9 3 307 -1 55 -9 -14 17 2 31 -8 31 -4 -5 -39 -11 1 -1 -18 -8 -8 -10 -16 -1 3 3 0 8 2 -17 -6 -64 5 -9 2 -2 3 -1 -7 -11 -3 -9 -14 -3 -6 0 4 -11 -4 -9 1 1 2 -30 -1 -13 -19 -5 -8 -4 -11 -5 1 -7 0 53 -3 34 1 -28 -14 -4 -2 -3 -6 -3 -7 -3 -6 -12 -2 -5 2 -1 -5 1 -17 -6 -5 0 -4 -80 -12 1 0 -4 0 0 -5 1 -7 -5 -8 -7 2 -7 -13 -8 -2 -8 -25 -21 1 -27 -25 -2 -5 1 -12 -2 -17 5 2 -1 -8 -12 -19 -9 -1 2 -1 -27 1 -1 12 -5 3 -2 -7 0 -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -12 -3 27 20 2 -5 40 120 1 -18 0 -9 2 58 7 -22 0 0 27 1 -45 -13 2 -10 -3 -10 39 2 5 -15 0 -3 0 0 7 -10 1 15 -14 4 2 8 -5 -12 -3 -7 -6 -7 5 -6 -16 5 1 -7 -3 -7 -4 6 -5 1 6 1 1 3 1 -74 37 0 0 -8 1 -1 -51 -13 -2 1 -20 -4 0 3 0 1 -6 0 -2 0 1 -14 -6 2 -1 -4 -4 -45 3 -6 23 -28 4 -3 -2 -3 -4 -12 -23 3 -5 -4 -7 -11 -5 -1 2 -5 24 2 -2 -3 -16 -2 -6 -39 -13 -2 1 -1 -4 4 -5 -7 -12 1 -4 -13 -40 3 -9 7 -8 -5 -6 -12 -3 -7 -4 -9 2 -6 -11 -1 5 0 -18 -3 1 -18 16 -9 -22 -4 -6 -4 4 -12 -13 -5 1 -7 -2 1 -4 -2 -1 -12 7 6 -36 -9 -5 -68 0 -11 -19 -2 -6 2 1 0 -3 -6 -48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-08-11 to 2021-08-17

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-08-10 12035 9249 4479 7767 11567 5989 11815 9109 2663 19674 11857 13138 11825 15496 5236 27419 39106 29330 6066 21502 12202 11874 13834 18822 33701 27889 136555 9954 25944 15709 6684 7914 39127 6660 37346 10066 67686 13654 8378 36117 8904 14439 24310 49563 8011 31812 8982 11454 10512 14096 24807 14955 21848 9057 20338 9215 13048 30517 11267 12060 10338 11073 23349 2280 17584 17081 6818 11908 31090 31219 8524 7513 6377 12381 34483 3623 15921 454 6133 5481 7311 26987 4095 59998 34182 4371 10756 39951 12305 11874 13094 6016 6626 25772 4519 18166 35563 18174 9489 34835 5909 13063 39704 9282 4449 7191 8013 6842 12374 9452 6399 6724 7646 27813 12383 11788 8237 9090 3857 10304 35191 15660 7382 10642 9130 9885 7342 6939 8306 20239 12386 9828 4598 7662 22803 12137 61457 10269 5481 12684 7845 28921 10048 4592 29330 15417 6620 19029 7416 27095 10125 11964 26161 6313 13024 8040 9352 32193 9551 10822 7763 6905 33723 8859 8366 30936 11027 11891 4794 9529 2923 8468 21693 12829 8167 9515 28573 16073 47903 22737 35083 13989 95323 46760 6782 29401 9174 10116 10666 66383 26057 16513 4977 4091 78335 11240 31815 3922 5411 7210 21001 3870 4584 10332 16275 10270 19672 6751 26520 6160 5102 2528 12777 9325 10926 38489 11692 42693 13024 16911 9193 4093 8665 16979 9268 7920 31352 13593 4077 15434 21844 6537 9044 22789 28158 10516 42263 12452 6359 33536 166 14085 4358 12975 8241 20010 18201 19742 5631 19396 15146 38762 16152 8118 12868 15740 23601 6920 15439 4083 30690 8307 9606 6178 29037 9455 7211 11093 9553 2410 2764 35759 43350 8313 4677 7600 33054 7692 9530 62670 397 20495 18343 22798 8137 6613 6399 8712 9707 24694 3338 6747 10071 6752 26380 7723 6810 8588 12245 8151 11035 19570 22219 18873 31635 9597 11659 23036 11370 7962 7928 5133 31548 24351 27421 7781 6253 35116 7078 20703 15829 19822 16656 26905 8355 7332 5900 15442 12619 8224 5114 13024 8781 21073 10838 8452 7462 2124 37653 25743 7899 6994 8692 7535 39543 32598 31230 32774 25028 11412 10445 8003 10373 6610 11095 9187 1857 6914 12382 6633 12480 6176 8840 20071 43413 27110 7246 11448 34398 8864 11744 31136 8961 7565 14110 8707 14757 10617 7680 18436
2021-08-11 12110 9275 4508 7793 11590 6002 11900 9191 2680 19790 11930 13210 11860 15550 5258 27490 39220 29440 6087 21550 12240 11930 13900 18890 33840 27980 137100 10010 25980 15800 6695 7951 39230 6683 37680 10100 67960 13700 8423 36300 8929 14480 24460 49760 8089 31920 9020 11500 10580 14140 24900 14980 21970 9119 20430 9249 13100 30580 11300 12080 10370 11160 23420 2289 17660 17120 6874 11970 31240 31340 8564 7552 6407 12410 34580 3634 15980 459 6169 5509 7369 27230 4114 60240 34310 4396 10800 40090 12360 11960 13140 6047 6655 25880 4545 18280 35750 18320 9527 34960 5940 13110 39830 9306 4480 7255 8033 6875 12430 9508 6430 6751 7666 27970 12440 11850 8245 9140 3865 10350 35280 15710 7408 10700 9130 9920 7383 6945 8422 20280 12430 9840 4618 7698 22890 12190 61630 10310 5514 12720 7889 29030 10090 4612 29450 15470 6643 19120 7457 27180 10170 12020 26250 6341 13060 8075 9393 32290 9599 10870 7797 6944 33820 8912 8413 31070 11050 11900 4814 9602 2933 8508 21790 12910 8217 9524 28770 16130 48090 22810 35230 14000 95800 46910 6804 29530 9214 10220 10750 66680 26140 16550 5000 4107 78710 11280 31920 3937 5423 7220 21070 3902 4611 10390 16390 10340 19740 6769 26620 6184 5118 2539 12800 9376 10990 38630 11730 42780 13040 17020 9253 4144 8704 17060 9312 7985 31440 13680 4089 15520 21930 6561 9088 22910 28320 10590 42430 12490 6385 33690 167 14140 4374 13000 8262 20150 18340 19830 5657 19450 15210 38860 16190 8151 12920 15780 23640 6939 15500 4094 30800 8353 9628 6196 29170 9499 7238 11200 9576 2422 2794 35900 43490 8349 4698 7688 33200 7731 9569 63160 399 20590 18370 22920 8177 6634 6417 8770 9747 24810 3367 6773 10130 6783 26450 7774 6840 8624 12290 8191 11060 19600 22340 18930 31760 9629 11710 23100 11410 7996 7962 5150 31680 24460 27530 7820 6299 35160 7104 20760 15860 19860 16760 26980 8388 7361 5958 15500 12650 8267 5149 13070 8816 21140 10870 8525 7478 2150 37780 25790 7930 7025 8711 7568 39740 32680 31330 32910 25140 11460 10470 8027 10400 6641 11140 9224 1871 6935 12410 6671 12520 6201 8889 20130 43550 27290 7273 11500 34560 8902 11790 31280 8991 7598 14150 8748 14820 10660 7719 18520
2021-08-12 12150 9307 4542 7818 11630 6013 11990 9256 2685 19850 12000 13260 11910 15580 5291 27570 39380 29550 6101 21610 12260 11990 13980 18970 33900 28060 137700 10040 26020 15930 6696 7978 39330 6731 37970 10140 68250 13740 8472 36480 8949 14530 24600 49950 8137 32060 9060 11540 10640 14190 24990 15000 22090 9160 20520 9267 13150 30650 11330 12100 10400 11240 23530 2296 17700 17170 6908 12030 31380 31470 8623 7596 6446 12440 34690 3639 16050 464 6233 5547 7410 27320 4119 60480 34470 4430 10820 40250 12420 12030 13180 6072 6701 25920 4571 18350 35950 18470 9541 35080 5957 13140 39970 9327 4487 7302 8045 6907 12490 9549 6441 6783 7673 28090 12480 11940 8281 9186 3872 10400 35370 15780 7431 10730 9263 9940 7424 6975 8519 20360 12470 9870 4640 7748 23030 12250 61790 10380 5537 12750 7940 29170 10110 4622 29630 15510 6681 19240 7485 27270 10210 12080 26370 6364 13110 8117 9435 32390 9623 10910 7830 6971 33920 8937 8439 31210 11100 11920 4835 9655 2939 8525 21890 12990 8263 9552 28880 16190 48220 22900 35410 14060 96270 47090 6828 29650 9239 10310 10820 66970 26220 16620 5024 4110 79040 11350 32060 3949 5453 7235 21130 3923 4643 10440 16460 10400 19880 6785 26740 6207 5132 2554 12810 9415 11090 38800 11770 42930 13060 17180 9307 4196 8743 17170 9352 8065 31560 13730 4103 15600 22060 6596 9129 23020 28460 10660 42580 12530 6397 33810 167 14200 4383 13040 8281 20290 18500 19930 5701 19500 15250 38990 16250 8175 12980 15820 23680 6947 15590 4103 30900 8386 9649 6233 29280 9527 7261 11260 9597 2444 2820 36100 43630 8386 4713 7760 33330 7772 9628 63560 402 20600 18410 23040 8219 6654 6444 8802 9776 24970 3399 6780 10150 6817 26540 7834 6857 8639 12330 8207 11100 19680 22470 19020 31900 9663 11750 23180 11450 8021 7987 5175 31800 24680 27650 7869 6316 35220 7120 20800 15900 19890 16850 27090 8422 7398 6004 15550 12690 8313 5169 13080 8856 21230 10920 8575 7492 2178 37930 25880 7966 7049 8727 7620 39930 32790 31450 33130 25250 11500 10490 8056 10450 6680 11190 9252 1881 6968 12460 6702 12590 6230 8936 20220 43720 27490 7294 11520 34740 8927 11840 31420 9033 7633 14200 8801 14890 10710 7768 18580
2021-08-13 12200 9350 4574 7842 11670 6026 12080 9327 2694 19930 12060 13310 11950 15620 5319 27640 39510 29660 6118 21660 12290 12050 14060 19040 33980 28140 138200 10080 26070 16040 6702 8011 39440 6757 38240 10180 68510 13790 8518 36620 8971 14580 24740 50140 8178 32180 9099 11580 10700 14230 25050 15030 22180 9211 20600 9292 13200 30710 11370 12120 10420 11320 23620 2304 17760 17210 6951 12090 31520 31580 8672 7637 6481 12470 34780 3646 16110 469 6284 5579 7439 27480 4131 60670 34610 4459 10850 40400 12470 12080 13230 6101 6739 25990 4596 18440 36120 18620 9565 35200 5980 13170 40090 9350 4505 7355 8060 6940 12540 9597 6461 6811 7686 28230 12530 12020 8305 9232 3879 10450 35450 15850 7455 10780 9385 9970 7464 7003 8616 20440 12510 9910 4664 7790 23150 12310 61940 10420 5563 12780 7987 29290 10140 4637 29770 15550 6710 19350 7517 27350 10250 12140 26470 6390 13160 8146 9475 32490 9657 10950 7863 7003 34020 8973 8474 31310 11150 11940 4855 9697 2947 8550 21990 13050 8310 9583 29020 16240 48370 22970 35570 14110 96720 47250 6850 29770 9270 10370 10900 67190 26300 16670 5046 4118 79300 11410 32180 3962 5485 7248 21200 3949 4672 10490 16550 10460 19980 6803 26850 6230 5147 2567 12830 9459 11170 38950 11800 43070 13100 17310 9358 4247 8782 17240 9393 8137 31660 13790 4109 15680 22160 6626 9171 23110 28560 10730 42730 12560 6414 33910 167 14260 4395 13070 8301 20400 18650 20020 5736 19550 15300 39100 16300 8203 13040 15850 23720 6959 15660 4112 30980 8414 9670 6261 29410 9562 7287 11310 9619 2462 2846 36270 43740 8421 4730 7838 33450 7811 9677 63890 405 20650 18460 23140 8264 6674 6466 8845 9809 25100 3430 6794 10180 6848 26630 7889 6880 8664 12370 8236 11140 19740 22600 19090 32030 9694 11800 23250 11490 8049 8015 5196 31920 24840 27760 7914 6345 35270 7140 20840 15950 19930 16950 27190 8456 7430 6053 15600 12730 8357 5196 13110 8894 21300 10960 8633 7512 2205 38060 25950 7997 7076 8744 7662 40140 32900 31550 33310 25330 11550 10520 8090 10480 6715 11240 9282 1893 6996 12510 6735 12640 6257 8983 20300 43830 27670 7318 11550 34840 8957 11890 31550 9069 7671 14240 8848 14940 10750 7811 18650
2021-08-14 12230 9378 4603 7865 11700 6039 12160 9398 2704 20020 12110 13370 11980 15670 5343 27710 39630 29770 6136 21720 12320 12110 14130 19110 34070 28220 138600 10120 26100 16140 6709 8044 39500 6778 38450 10220 68690 13830 8561 36730 8993 14620 24890 50320 8213 32290 9135 11620 10730 14250 25110 15050 22280 9266 20690 9318 13230 30770 11400 12140 10450 11410 23700 2312 17820 17250 6999 12150 31610 31680 8715 7676 6513 12490 34870 3654 16170 472 6327 5608 7467 27670 4144 60830 34710 4485 10880 40540 12520 12110 13270 6130 6772 26070 4620 18540 36240 18720 9593 35310 6006 13190 40190 9373 4528 7410 8077 6972 12600 9648 6484 6837 7702 28380 12560 12090 8329 9279 3887 10500 35540 15900 7478 10820 9498 9990 7502 7023 8709 20500 12550 9940 4675 7828 23250 12360 62060 10460 5591 12820 8031 29400 10180 4653 29910 15600 6736 19450 7551 27430 10290 12200 26560 6415 13190 8171 9515 32580 9692 11000 7896 7037 34120 9015 8512 31380 11180 11960 4873 9727 2956 8577 22090 13100 8356 9616 29180 16300 48530 23050 35720 14160 97050 47380 6872 29890 9303 10430 10980 67390 26380 16700 5068 4130 79540 11470 32280 3975 5505 7258 21260 3977 4698 10550 16650 10520 20060 6821 26960 6253 5162 2579 12850 9503 11240 39090 11840 43190 13120 17430 9406 4296 8820 17270 9433 8204 31730 13850 4112 15750 22260 6652 9212 23180 28640 10810 42880 12590 6435 34000 167 14310 4408 13100 8321 20500 18790 20110 5766 19600 15350 39210 16350 8231 13090 15880 23740 6974 15720 4122 31050 8432 9691 6283 29530 9598 7312 11340 9640 2477 2869 36420 43840 8456 4749 7916 33540 7849 9720 64180 408 20710 18500 23230 8302 6694 6486 8892 9844 25220 3459 6812 10220 6877 26690 7942 6903 8692 12400 8268 11180 19780 22710 19160 32150 9724 11840 23310 11530 8079 8044 5215 32040 24980 27870 7955 6378 35300 7162 20890 15970 19970 17040 27260 8487 7460 6104 15660 12760 8399 5225 13140 8929 21370 11000 8693 7525 2230 38180 26010 8025 7103 8761 7699 40280 33000 31650 33470 25400 11590 10540 8121 10520 6747 11280 9313 1905 7008 12540 6770 12690 6281 9029 20360 43920 27840 7342 11590 34940 8988 11930 31670 9101 7706 14280 8889 14990 10790 7850 18720
2021-08-15 12250 9407 4632 7889 11730 6053 12240 9470 2715 20120 12170 13430 12000 15720 5366 27780 39750 29870 6154 21770 12360 12160 14200 19180 34160 28300 139000 10170 26130 16240 6717 8077 39560 6798 38650 10250 68840 13870 8605 36830 9015 14660 25030 50500 8240 32390 9172 11660 10770 14280 25150 15070 22350 9322 20770 9345 13280 30830 11430 12160 10480 11490 23780 2320 17880 17290 7048 12200 31740 31790 8757 7714 6545 12510 34960 3662 16230 475 6368 5636 7491 27870 4159 60950 34860 4511 10910 40680 12570 12140 13320 6159 6804 26160 4645 18640 36340 18830 9622 35430 6032 13220 40280 9395 4552 7465 8094 7004 12650 9699 6509 6862 7719 28520 12590 12160 8344 9326 3894 10540 35620 15960 7502 10870 9609 10020 7541 7050 8802 20560 12590 9960 4685 7865 23340 12410 62160 10510 5619 12850 8074 29510 10210 4670 30030 15640 6761 19540 7586 27520 10330 12250 26650 6440 13230 8187 9554 32670 9728 11040 7928 7071 34220 9058 8552 31470 11200 11970 4892 9758 2965 8606 22180 13140 8402 9641 29340 16350 48690 23120 35860 14200 97370 47510 6893 30000 9337 10500 11050 67570 26460 16740 5089 4142 79770 11520 32390 3989 5527 7269 21320 4005 4724 10600 16750 10580 20150 6839 27060 6276 5177 2590 12870 9548 11310 39220 11880 43300 13140 17540 9454 4346 8858 17410 9473 8270 31820 13920 4120 15830 22350 6677 9253 23270 28720 10880 43020 12620 6457 34050 167 14370 4422 13130 8341 20600 18930 20190 5795 19650 15400 39310 16390 8259 13140 15910 23770 6989 15790 4131 31090 8445 9712 6304 29650 9634 7337 11370 9662 2491 2892 36560 43920 8490 4767 7996 33610 7886 9761 64450 410 20770 18540 23310 8341 6713 6504 8942 9879 25340 3487 6832 10270 6907 26770 7993 6926 8722 12440 8303 11210 19830 22830 19220 32270 9754 11890 23360 11570 8109 8074 5233 32170 25110 27970 7995 6412 35340 7184 20940 16000 20000 17140 27320 8519 7489 6155 15710 12790 8441 5255 13170 8964 21430 11030 8755 7540 2255 38310 26080 8054 7131 8779 7734 40400 33080 31740 33620 25450 11630 10560 8143 10550 6778 11330 9344 1917 7033 12570 6804 12730 6305 9076 20420 44010 28020 7366 11630 35060 9021 11980 31780 9133 7750 14310 8930 15020 10840 7889 18790
2021-08-16 12300 9456 4660 7913 11800 6067 12310 9544 2728 20220 12230 13500 12040 15770 5388 27850 39860 29980 6173 21820 12400 12210 14270 19240 34260 28380 139600 10220 26180 16330 6727 8112 39650 6821 38860 10290 69100 13910 8648 36960 9038 14700 25180 50680 8261 32500 9208 11700 10830 14310 25230 15110 22460 9381 20850 9374 13330 30880 11460 12180 10500 11580 23850 2328 17950 17330 7099 12260 31880 31900 8797 7753 6576 12540 35090 3671 16290 478 6405 5663 7516 28080 4175 61130 35020 4535 10950 40820 12620 12190 13360 6189 6833 26260 4669 18750 36500 18990 9655 35540 6060 13250 40400 9419 4580 7522 8113 7036 12700 9753 6536 6887 7737 28680 12650 12220 8374 9373 3901 10590 35710 16010 7527 10920 9717 10050 7580 7089 8895 20660 12620 9990 4712 7901 23430 12460 62330 10590 5648 12880 8116 29610 10260 4689 30150 15690 6784 19630 7623 27610 10370 12310 26740 6465 13260 8211 9593 32760 9767 11080 7961 7107 34320 9105 8595 31580 11260 12000 4910 9787 2974 8637 22270 13200 8448 9683 29510 16410 48860 23200 36000 14250 97840 47710 6915 30120 9373 10560 11130 67820 26540 16780 5110 4155 80070 11590 32490 4003 5571 7278 21390 4035 4750 10650 16860 10650 20220 6857 27160 6299 5192 2601 12890 9595 11370 39350 11910 43440 13190 17650 9501 4396 8895 17520 9513 8333 31920 14000 4120 15900 22440 6700 9294 23380 28820 10950 43170 12660 6481 34170 167 14420 4436 13150 8361 20750 19070 20280 5822 19710 15460 39410 16430 8288 13190 15960 23810 7006 15850 4141 31190 8463 9732 6323 29770 9673 7362 11420 9684 2504 2914 36700 44060 8524 4787 8078 33750 7924 9800 64790 412 20840 18590 23440 8403 6733 6521 8994 9916 25460 3516 6853 10320 6935 26880 8044 6951 8754 12480 8340 11250 19860 22940 19280 32390 9783 11940 23450 11610 8141 8105 5250 32290 25220 28070 8034 6450 35390 7208 20990 16030 20040 17230 27420 8550 7518 6208 15770 12820 8482 5286 13210 8999 21490 11070 8819 7560 2280 38430 26190 8081 7159 8798 7767 40600 33200 31830 33750 25530 11680 10590 8183 10590 6809 11370 9377 1930 7066 12610 6840 12770 6329 9123 20480 44120 28180 7390 11670 35200 9054 12020 31930 9164 7796 14350 8970 15080 10880 7926 18870
2021-08-17 12330 9494 4688 7936 11840 6080 12390 9618 2741 20330 12280 13560 12080 15820 5409 27910 39970 30080 6193 21880 12430 12260 14340 19310 34360 28460 140000 10270 26220 16410 6736 8147 39730 6851 39110 10320 69330 13950 8690 37070 9061 14740 25330 50870 8307 32600 9243 11740 10870 14340 25290 15140 22580 9441 20940 9404 13370 30940 11490 12210 10530 11670 23920 2336 18020 17370 7152 12310 32000 32020 8835 7791 6606 12560 35220 3680 16350 481 6441 5689 7541 28300 4191 61310 35160 4558 10980 40950 12670 12240 13400 6219 6862 26360 4693 18860 36680 19130 9688 35650 6089 13270 40530 9442 4609 7581 8132 7069 12750 9807 6565 6912 7756 28840 12690 12290 8414 9421 3909 10630 35790 16060 7551 10960 9824 10080 7618 7114 8989 20770 12660 10030 4733 7935 23520 12520 62510 10660 5678 12910 8158 29720 10300 4708 30270 15740 6807 19710 7660 27720 10410 12370 26820 6490 13290 8243 9633 32860 9807 11130 7993 7144 34410 9153 8638 31660 11320 12020 4928 9817 2984 8669 22360 13240 8495 9720 29690 16460 49030 23270 36140 14300 98280 47890 6936 30230 9409 10630 11200 68060 26620 16840 5132 4170 80320 11690 32590 4017 5611 7287 21460 4066 4775 10710 16960 10710 20290 6876 27250 6323 5207 2611 12910 9642 11440 39480 11950 43580 13230 17750 9548 4446 8933 17620 9554 8397 32030 14080 4139 15970 22520 6722 9336 23470 28940 11030 43330 12690 6505 34290 167 14470 4450 13180 8381 20890 19210 20360 5847 19760 15530 39510 16470 8318 13240 16010 23860 7024 15910 4152 31260 8486 9753 6340 29900 9712 7388 11470 9705 2516 2936 36830 44190 8559 4807 8161 33850 7961 9838 65110 414 20920 18650 23550 8448 6753 6538 9048 9954 25570 3544 6876 10370 6964 26970 8094 6977 8787 12510 8378 11290 19890 23050 19340 32500 9812 11990 23530 11640 8173 8136 5267 32410 25340 28170 8072 6490 35480 7232 21050 16070 20080 17330 27530 8581 7545 6261 15830 12850 8524 5319 13240 9033 21550 11100 8885 7572 2305 38550 26290 8108 7187 8817 7800 40750 33320 31920 33890 25640 11720 10610 8220 10630 6839 11410 9410 1944 7090 12640 6876 12810 6352 9170 20530 44230 28350 7415 11710 35330 9088 12060 32030 9194 7833 14380 9008 15150 10920 7963 18950

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-08-11 to 2021-08-17

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-08-10 12035 9249 4479 7767 11567 5989 11815 9109 2663 19674 11857 13138 11825 15496 5236 27419 39106 29330 6066 21502 12202 11874 13834 18822 33701 27889 136555 9954 25944 15709 6684 7914 39127 6660 37346 10066 67686 13654 8378 36117 8904 14439 24310 49563 8011 31812 8982 11454 10512 14096 24807 14955 21848 9057 20338 9215 13048 30517 11267 12060 10338 11073 23349 2280 17584 17081 6818 11908 31090 31219 8524 7513 6377 12381 34483 3623 15921 454 6133 5481 7311 26987 4095 59998 34182 4371 10756 39951 12305 11874 13094 6016 6626 25772 4519 18166 35563 18174 9489 34835 5909 13063 39704 9282 4449 7191 8013 6842 12374 9452 6399 6724 7646 27813 12383 11788 8237 9090 3857 10304 35191 15660 7382 10642 9130 9885 7342 6939 8306 20239 12386 9828 4598 7662 22803 12137 61457 10269 5481 12684 7845 28921 10048 4592 29330 15417 6620 19029 7416 27095 10125 11964 26161 6313 13024 8040 9352 32193 9551 10822 7763 6905 33723 8859 8366 30936 11027 11891 4794 9529 2923 8468 21693 12829 8167 9515 28573 16073 47903 22737 35083 13989 95323 46760 6782 29401 9174 10116 10666 66383 26057 16513 4977 4091 78335 11240 31815 3922 5411 7210 21001 3870 4584 10332 16275 10270 19672 6751 26520 6160 5102 2528 12777 9325 10926 38489 11692 42693 13024 16911 9193 4093 8665 16979 9268 7920 31352 13593 4077 15434 21844 6537 9044 22789 28158 10516 42263 12452 6359 33536 166 14085 4358 12975 8241 20010 18201 19742 5631 19396 15146 38762 16152 8118 12868 15740 23601 6920 15439 4083 30690 8307 9606 6178 29037 9455 7211 11093 9553 2410 2764 35759 43350 8313 4677 7600 33054 7692 9530 62670 397 20495 18343 22798 8137 6613 6399 8712 9707 24694 3338 6747 10071 6752 26380 7723 6810 8588 12245 8151 11035 19570 22219 18873 31635 9597 11659 23036 11370 7962 7928 5133 31548 24351 27421 7781 6253 35116 7078 20703 15829 19822 16656 26905 8355 7332 5900 15442 12619 8224 5114 13024 8781 21073 10838 8452 7462 2124 37653 25743 7899 6994 8692 7535 39543 32598 31230 32774 25028 11412 10445 8003 10373 6610 11095 9187 1857 6914 12382 6633 12480 6176 8840 20071 43413 27110 7246 11448 34398 8864 11744 31136 8961 7565 14110 8707 14757 10617 7680 18436
2021-08-11 12080 9293 4503 7797 11610 6004 11900 9195 2682 19800 11910 13220 11870 15560 5254 27490 39250 29430 6086 21550 12250 11910 13920 18890 33980 27960 137000 10010 25980 15780 6696 7958 39210 6686 37610 10090 67900 13690 8429 36250 8926 14470 24470 49850 8058 31910 9019 11490 10560 14130 24890 14980 21960 9122 20420 9249 13100 30580 11290 12090 10370 11170 23430 2289 17650 17130 6878 11940 31220 31320 8548 7555 6395 12420 34610 3637 15980 457 6167 5507 7341 27260 4120 60190 34300 4387 10800 40090 12350 11920 13130 6049 6664 25900 4540 18290 35730 18340 9529 34960 5940 13100 39830 9310 4481 7259 8034 6883 12440 9508 6435 6757 7666 27960 12430 11860 8272 9144 3866 10350 35280 15700 7406 10700 9203 9920 7382 6970 8413 20350 12430 9856 4618 7693 22870 12190 61650 10330 5514 12730 7880 29010 10090 4611 29430 15460 6645 19120 7455 27180 10150 12030 26240 6336 13060 8069 9392 32270 9616 10860 7800 6949 33820 8921 8416 31030 11080 11920 4817 9567 2932 8516 21770 12880 8220 9554 28780 16120 48110 22820 35260 14030 95820 46970 6811 29530 9204 10200 10740 66650 26140 16570 4993 4107 78640 11320 31920 3934 5443 7219 21070 3902 4612 10380 16390 10340 19750 6768 26620 6180 5119 2539 12800 9381 10980 38600 11720 42840 13060 17020 9239 4134 8696 17060 9315 7992 31470 13680 4095 15500 21930 6562 9088 22890 28260 10590 42450 12500 6384 33650 168 14140 4376 13000 8270 20170 18320 19830 5654 19450 15210 38860 16220 8149 12930 15790 23640 6936 15490 4097 30770 8330 9624 6196 29190 9497 7231 11160 9585 2423 2790 35900 43510 8351 4694 7683 33170 7725 9556 63020 400 20590 18400 22910 8193 6638 6423 8774 9751 24810 3366 6772 10130 6773 26480 7775 6840 8627 12290 8192 11080 19620 22340 18930 31770 9627 11710 23130 11410 7986 7964 5151 31660 24440 27510 7813 6304 35200 7113 20780 15860 19870 16750 27000 8389 7358 5963 15510 12650 8254 5151 13070 8809 21130 10870 8551 7476 2150 37780 25830 7936 7020 8711 7565 39730 32720 31330 32900 25120 11460 10480 8034 10420 6642 11140 9237 1871 6940 12430 6673 12520 6203 8909 20150 43520 27300 7287 11500 34540 8896 11800 31250 8996 7599 14150 8755 14810 10660 7716 18520
2021-08-12 12120 9326 4524 7813 11630 6016 11970 9260 2694 19890 11940 13270 11910 15600 5267 27570 39370 29510 6102 21580 12280 11950 14000 18950 34200 28000 137400 10050 26010 15850 6702 7995 39260 6721 37870 10120 68080 13730 8479 36390 8939 14500 24630 50080 8100 32000 9050 11520 10600 14180 24960 15010 22060 9184 20480 9266 13150 30640 11310 12110 10380 11240 23490 2295 17700 17160 6931 11960 31320 31420 8566 7598 6409 12450 34720 3644 16030 462 6207 5526 7370 27460 4133 60360 34400 4396 10830 40230 12390 11940 13160 6078 6703 25980 4558 18390 35850 18500 9555 35040 5968 13130 39980 9331 4504 7305 8052 6914 12500 9556 6457 6780 7680 28050 12460 11930 8304 9197 3871 10390 35360 15740 7422 10740 9303 9940 7417 7002 8482 20430 12470 9874 4629 7726 22920 12230 61790 10380 5533 12760 7902 29090 10110 4627 29530 15490 6663 19210 7485 27250 10180 12080 26320 6357 13080 8094 9423 32350 9654 10890 7831 6985 33890 8965 8457 31140 11130 11930 4837 9603 2939 8536 21840 12920 8263 9588 28940 16180 48280 22890 35420 14080 96240 47150 6838 29630 9223 10310 10820 66890 26220 16630 5003 4114 78900 11390 32040 3940 5459 7228 21130 3930 4636 10430 16500 10390 19830 6783 26710 6197 5136 2550 12810 9432 11030 38710 11740 42980 13090 17120 9273 4155 8722 17140 9352 8069 31580 13750 4119 15550 22010 6581 9116 22980 28330 10670 42600 12550 6404 33730 168 14190 4390 13020 8288 20300 18440 19900 5680 19480 15260 38970 16260 8168 12980 15820 23670 6946 15550 4108 30850 8344 9634 6216 29300 9522 7254 11220 9608 2438 2802 36040 43650 8383 4708 7733 33260 7752 9575 63390 403 20630 18430 22970 8246 6658 6440 8831 9781 24890 3391 6789 10190 6786 26590 7833 6855 8654 12320 8212 11100 19670 22460 18970 31890 9646 11740 23210 11430 8006 7992 5173 31760 24510 27560 7855 6340 35250 7137 20830 15880 19900 16840 27060 8411 7385 6015 15540 12670 8278 5183 13100 8829 21180 10890 8633 7486 2175 37880 25910 7971 7040 8729 7597 39860 32810 31420 33040 25190 11490 10500 8057 10450 6673 11180 9281 1880 6968 12470 6710 12570 6226 8961 20230 43620 27450 7317 11530 34690 8918 11850 31330 9026 7632 14180 8794 14860 10690 7742 18590
2021-08-13 12170 9369 4545 7827 11650 6028 12050 9329 2707 19980 11970 13340 11940 15640 5281 27630 39470 29600 6118 21610 12320 11990 14070 19010 34400 28040 137800 10100 26040 15920 6710 8033 39320 6747 38130 10150 68270 13760 8525 36520 8955 14520 24770 50280 8140 32080 9075 11550 10640 14220 25020 15030 22160 9247 20540 9288 13200 30710 11320 12120 10390 11320 23560 2302 17750 17190 6984 11990 31430 31520 8589 7640 6425 12490 34810 3651 16080 466 6244 5545 7398 27670 4149 60510 34510 4405 10870 40360 12430 11970 13190 6105 6740 26070 4577 18500 35960 18660 9585 35130 5996 13150 40110 9355 4530 7354 8073 6947 12550 9609 6492 6798 7697 28140 12490 12000 8322 9251 3876 10430 35450 15780 7438 10780 9400 9960 7453 7032 8556 20520 12500 9898 4643 7756 22960 12270 61920 10430 5555 12800 7923 29170 10140 4645 29620 15520 6679 19300 7516 27310 10200 12130 26390 6380 13100 8117 9453 32420 9692 10910 7859 7023 33980 9009 8497 31240 11180 11960 4856 9636 2946 8556 21920 12970 8307 9623 29110 16230 48440 22960 35560 14120 96640 47320 6866 29740 9246 10400 10890 67090 26280 16670 5013 4125 79110 11460 32140 3946 5481 7236 21200 3960 4659 10480 16600 10450 19880 6802 26810 6216 5153 2561 12830 9484 11070 38820 11760 43120 13120 17220 9309 4184 8752 17200 9392 8141 31670 13820 4136 15590 22080 6596 9149 23070 28400 10750 42750 12590 6426 33800 169 14250 4405 13040 8308 20400 18560 19970 5703 19530 15320 39070 16290 8190 13030 15860 23700 6959 15600 4121 30930 8357 9645 6231 29430 9551 7275 11270 9632 2452 2814 36170 43750 8417 4722 7784 33350 7780 9594 63720 406 20690 18470 23040 8296 6677 6457 8884 9818 24960 3416 6809 10240 6798 26680 7886 6871 8682 12340 8238 11140 19700 22570 19020 31990 9667 11780 23290 11460 8026 8022 5192 31860 24570 27620 7892 6381 35300 7159 20890 15890 19940 16930 27120 8432 7413 6063 15570 12690 8306 5217 13120 8852 21230 10910 8705 7498 2199 37980 25970 8005 7064 8747 7627 40010 32910 31510 33170 25250 11520 10530 8083 10490 6703 11210 9317 1891 6994 12500 6747 12610 6248 9006 20300 43680 27600 7347 11570 34770 8944 11890 31410 9057 7668 14220 8830 14900 10720 7771 18660
2021-08-14 12190 9400 4563 7842 11680 6040 12120 9399 2719 20080 12010 13380 11970 15680 5295 27700 39560 29680 6133 21640 12360 12030 14120 19080 34600 28080 138200 10150 26070 15990 6718 8061 39370 6770 38360 10170 68450 13780 8571 36640 8974 14550 24910 50480 8177 32170 9097 11570 10670 14240 25070 15050 22250 9310 20600 9312 13250 30750 11340 12140 10400 11410 23620 2309 17800 17210 7038 12010 31530 31600 8612 7678 6443 12510 34900 3659 16130 471 6280 5559 7425 27890 4166 60640 34620 4413 10900 40490 12470 11990 13220 6129 6776 26170 4595 18600 36050 18790 9616 35220 6024 13180 40220 9377 4559 7403 8089 6974 12610 9663 6520 6815 7713 28250 12520 12060 8340 9300 3882 10470 35530 15810 7454 10820 9495 9980 7490 7052 8627 20590 12530 9924 4653 7777 23010 12310 62040 10480 5578 12830 7948 29250 10160 4663 29720 15550 6694 19380 7549 27380 10230 12170 26450 6401 13120 8139 9484 32480 9727 10940 7888 7054 34050 9052 8533 31320 11230 11980 4875 9664 2954 8578 21990 13010 8352 9653 29260 16280 48600 23040 35680 14140 96960 47460 6891 29840 9271 10480 10960 67290 26350 16700 5022 4133 79300 11530 32230 3953 5502 7242 21270 3991 4683 10530 16710 10490 19940 6819 26900 6236 5166 2571 12840 9537 11100 38920 11790 43250 13150 17310 9345 4218 8782 17240 9430 8210 31750 13900 4147 15630 22150 6610 9177 23160 28460 10830 42890 12640 6449 33880 170 14300 4420 13060 8323 20480 18690 20030 5721 19570 15380 39170 16320 8214 13070 15890 23720 6974 15640 4133 30990 8366 9655 6244 29510 9582 7293 11320 9652 2464 2826 36290 43830 8447 4738 7833 33440 7809 9616 64040 408 20740 18500 23120 8342 6696 6473 8935 9852 25020 3442 6831 10280 6811 26750 7934 6887 8711 12360 8271 11160 19740 22690 19060 32070 9687 11820 23340 11490 8050 8052 5209 31960 24640 27670 7930 6413 35350 7179 20950 15910 19970 17010 27190 8454 7440 6105 15610 12710 8336 5248 13150 8875 21280 10930 8760 7508 2220 38070 26010 8037 7084 8767 7647 40100 32990 31570 33270 25320 11550 10560 8109 10510 6733 11250 9351 1902 7013 12530 6784 12650 6265 9039 20370 43730 27740 7372 11600 34860 8964 11940 31480 9081 7704 14250 8862 14940 10750 7800 18730
2021-08-15 12210 9424 4582 7856 11700 6052 12190 9470 2729 20170 12050 13430 12000 15720 5309 27760 39640 29770 6147 21680 12400 12080 14180 19140 34770 28120 138600 10200 26090 16050 6727 8101 39410 6792 38580 10200 68630 13800 8617 36750 8994 14570 25060 50680 8207 32260 9119 11600 10700 14270 25120 15070 22340 9370 20670 9338 13290 30800 11350 12150 10420 11490 23690 2315 17850 17240 7092 12030 31620 31690 8636 7715 6462 12540 34990 3667 16180 475 6315 5574 7450 28110 4184 60760 34740 4423 10940 40620 12500 12020 13260 6158 6811 26260 4613 18700 36160 18910 9648 35310 6052 13200 40340 9397 4588 7452 8107 7001 12670 9711 6541 6836 7729 28360 12550 12130 8353 9343 3887 10510 35610 15850 7472 10870 9590 10000 7527 7075 8698 20650 12570 9943 4665 7798 23060 12350 62150 10530 5603 12870 7973 29320 10190 4682 29810 15590 6713 19460 7583 27440 10260 12220 26500 6422 13140 8162 9514 32560 9757 10970 7918 7086 34130 9093 8563 31410 11290 12000 4893 9690 2961 8603 22060 13040 8397 9673 29420 16340 48740 23110 35780 14170 97250 47580 6917 29950 9298 10570 11030 67480 26420 16730 5035 4143 79500 11580 32310 3962 5525 7248 21340 4022 4706 10580 16820 10540 20000 6834 27000 6256 5178 2580 12850 9591 11130 39030 11810 43360 13180 17400 9381 4254 8808 17350 9461 8278 31830 13980 4165 15670 22210 6629 9207 23240 28530 10910 43020 12670 6474 33950 171 14350 4435 13080 8337 20560 18820 20100 5737 19620 15440 39270 16360 8239 13110 15920 23730 6989 15680 4146 31040 8376 9673 6256 29620 9614 7313 11360 9670 2476 2838 36410 43890 8476 4753 7885 33510 7839 9638 64340 411 20800 18530 23200 8386 6713 6488 8981 9883 25090 3468 6854 10320 6828 26820 7983 6903 8743 12390 8305 11180 19770 22800 19110 32130 9707 11860 23410 11520 8076 8084 5225 32050 24690 27720 7965 6440 35390 7197 21000 15920 20000 17100 27250 8479 7464 6146 15650 12720 8366 5277 13180 8900 21310 10960 8815 7518 2244 38130 26070 8069 7105 8785 7670 40180 33060 31670 33380 25390 11580 10580 8135 10540 6762 11290 9385 1913 7037 12560 6821 12680 6282 9069 20440 43790 27890 7398 11640 34960 8985 11970 31530 9105 7741 14280 8890 14990 10780 7828 18810
2021-08-16 12260 9459 4600 7870 11740 6067 12260 9543 2741 20270 12090 13490 12040 15760 5323 27820 39730 29860 6165 21720 12440 12120 14250 19200 34960 28170 139100 10250 26120 16120 6735 8137 39480 6817 38810 10230 68830 13840 8662 36880 9015 14600 25200 50870 8240 32350 9146 11630 10750 14300 25180 15100 22440 9438 20730 9365 13340 30860 11360 12170 10430 11580 23760 2322 17910 17260 7150 12050 31730 31800 8660 7760 6481 12560 35090 3675 16220 479 6349 5592 7477 28360 4202 60900 34860 4435 10980 40750 12540 12050 13290 6184 6846 26350 4633 18800 36270 19060 9681 35400 6086 13230 40480 9424 4618 7498 8126 7026 12720 9763 6563 6855 7747 28470 12590 12210 8370 9397 3893 10560 35690 15890 7492 10910 9686 10030 7564 7101 8769 20740 12600 9966 4680 7824 23130 12390 62300 10580 5628 12900 8001 29400 10220 4701 29910 15620 6733 19540 7617 27520 10280 12270 26560 6449 13160 8185 9542 32640 9792 11010 7950 7128 34210 9142 8601 31510 11340 12020 4914 9718 2969 8630 22140 13080 8443 9703 29600 16390 48900 23180 35890 14190 97690 47780 6943 30060 9325 10650 11100 67730 26480 16770 5049 4155 79750 11650 32410 3972 5554 7256 21410 4054 4730 10630 16940 10600 20060 6852 27090 6277 5195 2590 12870 9646 11170 39140 11840 43500 13220 17490 9422 4292 8835 17430 9493 8345 31930 14060 4183 15710 22270 6646 9237 23340 28620 10990 43180 12710 6499 34040 172 14400 4450 13100 8355 20670 18950 20160 5755 19660 15500 39370 16390 8266 13160 15950 23770 7005 15720 4159 31110 8388 9688 6268 29740 9648 7334 11420 9692 2488 2851 36530 43990 8508 4770 7933 33620 7869 9661 64690 413 20860 18560 23280 8438 6734 6503 9038 9917 25160 3494 6877 10380 6847 26920 8036 6922 8777 12420 8337 11200 19800 22910 19160 32230 9728 11910 23490 11550 8104 8116 5244 32150 24750 27770 8002 6471 35440 7218 21060 15940 20030 17200 27310 8500 7493 6197 15690 12750 8398 5314 13210 8925 21360 10980 8877 7528 2271 38220 26150 8103 7128 8803 7695 40300 33150 31750 33510 25460 11610 10610 8163 10570 6791 11330 9427 1924 7066 12580 6859 12730 6302 9113 20500 43850 28040 7424 11680 35080 9008 12020 31610 9130 7780 14320 8922 15030 10820 7854 18890
2021-08-17 12300 9506 4620 7885 11770 6081 12340 9617 2755 20370 12120 13540 12080 15810 5337 27890 39820 29960 6181 21750 12490 12170 14300 19270 35150 28210 139500 10300 26150 16190 6744 8175 39530 6845 39080 10260 69030 13860 8711 37000 9036 14620 25360 51090 8283 32440 9165 11660 10780 14330 25240 15120 22540 9506 20790 9393 13380 30920 11380 12180 10440 11660 23820 2329 17970 17290 7209 12070 31830 31900 8685 7804 6500 12580 35210 3684 16280 483 6384 5607 7503 28580 4221 61020 34980 4447 11010 40880 12580 12090 13330 6208 6881 26460 4653 18920 36360 19220 9714 35500 6121 13260 40600 9449 4648 7554 8145 7055 12780 9820 6592 6870 7766 28580 12630 12270 8385 9449 3899 10600 35780 15930 7507 10950 9781 10050 7602 7120 8839 20830 12630 9988 4694 7849 23180 12430 62440 10640 5654 12940 8030 29470 10250 4721 30000 15650 6753 19630 7651 27590 10310 12320 26610 6473 13180 8207 9573 32700 9832 11040 7980 7163 34280 9190 8636 31610 11400 12040 4933 9749 2976 8657 22220 13120 8489 9726 29750 16440 49070 23260 35990 14220 98090 47960 6970 30160 9353 10740 11170 67950 26550 16800 5061 4163 79980 11730 32500 3982 5578 7263 21480 4086 4753 10680 17050 10650 20110 6874 27190 6299 5210 2599 12880 9702 11210 39250 11870 43630 13260 17580 9460 4330 8867 17520 9533 8412 32030 14140 4204 15760 22350 6662 9265 23430 28720 11070 43330 12750 6524 34140 173 14450 4466 13110 8375 20790 19080 20230 5776 19710 15560 39460 16420 8292 13200 16000 23800 7021 15760 4173 31180 8399 9705 6281 29860 9681 7353 11470 9714 2502 2862 36650 44080 8535 4790 7978 33720 7900 9684 65040 416 20920 18600 23350 8486 6757 6518 9092 9958 25250 3520 6901 10430 6865 27010 8094 6936 8806 12440 8370 11230 19830 23030 19200 32330 9748 11950 23550 11580 8129 8148 5262 32260 24810 27830 8040 6505 35500 7234 21130 15960 20060 17290 27380 8522 7519 6246 15730 12770 8430 5351 13240 8951 21410 11010 8945 7537 2295 38300 26210 8137 7151 8824 7717 40380 33230 31840 33630 25540 11640 10640 8192 10590 6820 11370 9463 1936 7089 12610 6897 12780 6319 9154 20570 43910 28190 7448 11720 35200 9027 12060 31670 9150 7815 14350 8951 15080 10860 7882 18970

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.