COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-08-16 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-08-16

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-08-16

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-06-2112-272021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-06-232021-07-09 --07-212021-03-252021-07-082021-07-062021-07-082021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-082021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-092021-07-0812-292021-07-0812-272021-07-0812-072021-07-072021-07-082021-07-062021-01-012021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-08-052021-07-082021-07-082021-07-062021-07-072021-07-082021-07-082021-07-062021-07-072021-07-082021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-06-272021-07-072021-08-052021-07-082021-07-092021-06-202021-07-072021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-162021-07-0710-282021-07-072021-07-07 --2021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-082021-07-082021-07-082021-07-082021-06-222021-06-202021-07-072021-07-272021-07-062021-07-062021-07-08 --2021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-062021-01-022021-07-0712-212021-07-072021-07-112021-07-082021-07-0712-222021-06-212021-07-0807-21 --2021-07-062021-06-212021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-06-132021-07-062021-06-222021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-092021-07-082021-07-082021-07-062021-08-032021-06-252021-07-082021-07-08 --2021-06-202021-07-062021-07-082021-07-062021-07-062021-07-042021-07-0610-042021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-082021-08-052021-07-072021-07-092021-07-082021-07-082021-07-082021-07-092021-07-082021-07-072021-07-092021-07-072021-07-082021-07-082021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-062021-06-202021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-06-2312-212021-07-0812-212021-07-072021-07-082021-07-092021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-092021-07-0712-272021-07-082021-07-082021-07-082021-01-032021-07-032021-07-082021-07-072021-07-202021-07-1112-262021-07-082021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-102021-07-062021-07-0712-082021-07-08 --2021-07-082021-07-082021-08-022021-07-182021-07-072021-06-272021-07-072021-07-092021-07-062021-07-042021-08-032021-07-082021-07-062021-07-032021-07-082021-08-042021-07-082021-07-1207-212021-07-082021-07-082021-07-032021-07-082021-08-0210-042021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-082021-07-082021-07-062021-08-032021-07-082021-07-082021-07-062021-07-072021-06-292021-06-222021-07-072021-07-082021-06-22 --2021-07-072021-01-012021-08-052021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-0810-042021-07-0612-272021-07-082021-07-062021-07-062021-07-082021-07-062021-07-082021-07-082021-07-082021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-07 --2021-07-082021-07-062021-07-0712-23 --2021-07-072021-07-082021-07-082021-07-0807-212021-07-072021-07-082021-07-062021-08-0412-292021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-0810-042021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-082021-07-082021-06-272021-07-092021-07-072021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-06-202021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-082021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-072021-06-222021-07-08 --2021-07-082021-07-062021-07-082021-08-032021-07-112021-07-082021-07-062021-07-082021-07-0812-06 --2021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-062021-07-082021-07-092021-07-062021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-07-122021-07-072021-07-07 --10-042021-07-072021-07-062021-06-242021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-07-092021-07-082021-07-082021-07-082021-07-092021-07-072021-07-082021-07-082021-06-292021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-082021-07-08
Peak daily increment 137 102 55 118 108 84 100 115 106 131 96 66 103 58 97 268 282 52 142 160 149 215 108 381 183 1249 74 157 171 95 63 208 43 484 113 485 106 57 180 69 56 223 639 61 261 96 74 98 78 163 32 161 72 164 71 60 97 118 25 103 93 230 41 122 173 77 273 251 84 73 71 125 446 20 144 12 68 117 46 42 615 383 55 102 237 124 142 98 54 88 246 50 170 407 152 41 273 119 184 198 296 93 76 64 125 89 112 66 66 301 76 87 64 94 23 84 152 108 59 113 110 81 69 39 237 62 70 57 83 274 125 631 97 57 67 117 168 72 47 234 81 87 161 58 155 65 115 148 65 150 47 69 162 89 84 74 86 200 82 87 133 103 71 74 59 18 63 195 89 68 73 254 97 278 311 314 124 737 284 51 223 81 95 85 727 110 124 42 48 461 77 172 41 73 105 130 39 105 117 71 279 97 201 51 22 31 55 100 117 384 108 157 36 137 186 78 96 256 84 72 389 96 35 207 231 79 100 131 328 87 274 172 31 260 4 131 23 58 113 349 203 51 107 84 123 304 61 120 150 59 52 147 67 216 76 70 52 218 83 50 120 73 19 261 258 96 83 197 68 99 498 24 170 61 282 64 42 51 72 69 362 47 41 66 70 460 57 73 79 96 112 78 303 204 155 249 73 138 145 89 79 57 43 247 344 243 77 73 430 58 148 102 48 158 222 83 63 143 117 95 40 37 81 100 108 138 101 230 185 63 65 28 81 357 202 164 320 199 117 73 71 88 37 104 90 79 95 46 102 67 67 142 392 371 63 83 249 62 97 189 102 65 65 80 119 122 78 141
Days since peak 56 232 39 40 39 54 38 391 144 39 41 39 40 41 39 39 40 39 39 39 39 40 39 38 39 230 39 232 39 252 40 39 41 227 39 40 39 11 39 39 41 40 39 39 41 40 39 41 40 41 50 40 11 39 38 57 40 39 39 40 31 40 292 40 40 39 40 39 39 39 39 39 55 57 40 20 41 41 39 40 40 40 39 40 39 40 40 39 40 41 226 40 238 40 36 39 40 237 56 39 391 41 56 40 40 40 64 41 55 39 40 39 40 39 39 40 38 39 39 41 13 52 39 39 57 41 39 41 41 43 41 316 40 40 39 40 39 39 11 40 38 39 39 39 38 39 40 38 40 39 39 39 39 40 39 41 57 39 40 39 39 40 54 238 39 238 40 39 38 39 40 40 38 40 232 39 39 39 225 44 39 40 27 36 233 39 39 39 40 39 40 37 41 40 251 39 39 39 14 29 40 50 40 38 41 43 13 39 41 44 39 12 39 35 391 39 39 44 39 14 316 41 40 40 41 41 39 39 41 13 39 39 41 40 48 55 40 39 55 40 227 11 39 40 39 40 39 39 316 41 232 39 41 41 39 41 39 39 39 39 39 40 40 39 41 40 236 40 39 39 39 391 40 39 41 12 230 40 41 41 39 40 40 40 39 316 39 39 40 39 39 39 50 38 40 39 39 40 40 41 40 40 57 40 41 41 39 39 39 40 40 40 41 39 40 55 39 39 41 39 13 36 39 41 39 39 253 40 41 39 40 41 39 41 39 38 41 40 39 40 40 39 35 40 40 316 40 41 53 39 39 40 40 39 38 39 39 39 38 40 39 39 48 39 40 39 39 39
Last total 12272 9515 4639 8010 11929 6135 12368 9653 2847 20583 12167 13634 12090 15994 5367 27907 39997 30051 6292 21861 12617 12233 14371 19257 35295 28398 139713 10348 26180 16221 6781 8147 39671 6841 38603 10396 69087 13935 8684 36883 9055 14667 25483 51093 8344 32476 9292 11727 10799 14276 25317 15211 22565 9442 20841 9551 13377 31122 11453 12305 10523 11631 24056 2392 18089 17386 7166 12314 31951 32091 8739 7854 6572 12686 35502 3731 16298 485 6423 5668 7502 29097 4284 61174 35199 4488 11094 41003 12709 12134 13386 6235 6937 26649 4660 19108 36543 19179 9802 35707 6421 13279 40586 9514 4745 7693 8274 7085 12725 9964 6634 6983 7874 28944 12697 12158 8558 9459 4006 10637 35849 15950 7578 11060 9684 10155 7642 7191 9247 20922 12771 10072 4765 7861 23311 12514 62734 10715 5760 12983 8091 29564 10449 4865 30015 15768 6798 19577 7702 27676 10383 12392 26764 6533 13306 8304 9676 32705 10027 11093 7986 7228 34420 9249 8666 31599 11490 12064 4976 9759 2992 9018 22325 13162 8517 9827 29938 16505 49152 23226 36027 14279 97902 47988 7038 30180 9386 10453 11185 67925 26666 16821 5106 4231 79886 11797 32460 4028 5680 7296 21509 4178 4791 10726 16892 10818 20044 6902 27239 6347 5255 2602 13137 9684 11301 39204 12004 43583 13410 17570 9522 4442 8901 17556 9586 8305 32200 14161 4196 15919 22417 6688 9337 23458 28967 10933 43309 12868 6556 34196 173 14479 4614 13173 8441 20861 19031 20402 5909 19765 15586 39416 16481 8317 13250 16142 24207 7074 15806 4218 31182 8450 9742 6407 29960 9855 7465 11428 9799 2491 2904 36518 44286 8576 4875 8307 33818 7937 9766 64436 402 21436 18721 23443 8559 6785 6582 9146 10017 25558 3626 6944 10507 6952 27129 8018 7025 8914 12579 8551 11328 19969 23029 19248 32502 9855 12056 23619 11687 8312 8207 5261 32342 24806 28115 8074 6561 35681 7336 21230 16093 20346 17384 27541 8577 7502 6425 15959 12864 8565 5325 13482 8993 21450 11120 9183 7667 2362 38494 26440 8145 7151 8928 7885 40637 33375 31864 33745 25660 11799 10695 8330 10769 6813 11392 9537 2037 7149 12632 6867 12834 6470 9264 20577 44150 28475 7531 11846 35174 9141 12170 31953 9173 7874 14447 8951 15200 10942 7892 19011
Last daily increment 45 63 39 58 86 38 119 120 44 201 51 97 63 91 24 54 139 127 39 70 85 71 123 100 297 80 489 61 55 80 14 38 79 33 172 58 264 59 44 114 19 29 203 293 60 97 55 40 68 38 82 46 127 58 80 67 50 85 28 40 41 131 122 7 93 51 61 74 150 158 32 90 38 53 287 25 55 7 30 25 46 553 45 247 158 23 55 169 80 57 25 48 23 161 26 204 205 176 58 175 117 46 138 51 47 150 73 41 66 94 49 50 69 213 64 67 61 56 36 53 111 38 33 77 96 71 44 57 202 164 41 25 35 39 97 78 366 94 52 57 43 88 73 20 100 71 39 78 63 79 36 80 88 40 48 63 59 80 79 39 45 81 112 65 63 114 81 27 49 36 5 98 87 54 52 56 223 61 224 70 132 42 417 232 42 108 31 62 100 230 116 40 18 29 276 106 107 17 64 17 92 81 49 66 123 110 82 40 130 32 25 15 49 52 74 120 53 138 30 118 77 87 41 104 51 73 196 106 23 103 103 35 62 102 157 64 187 78 27 96 0 66 38 35 52 141 156 108 29 62 87 97 56 39 58 122 107 22 67 25 80 25 22 59 177 67 43 65 37 20 31 137 153 56 51 165 121 56 56 268 0 175 59 117 109 42 28 71 60 144 79 42 88 29 201 54 36 74 68 97 60 84 120 59 123 45 60 93 67 57 50 32 129 80 123 48 64 112 47 92 47 62 124 111 33 33 111 98 39 61 36 100 38 62 54 151 13 69 129 147 48 24 34 54 184 136 101 144 113 58 39 61 75 45 53 75 61 70 42 41 72 44 88 78 105 324 64 76 137 44 75 152 44 62 1 52 78 49 43 105
Last week 237 261 154 239 355 145 564 550 179 931 298 492 258 488 130 477 870 704 218 348 395 355 531 430 1646 494 3003 392 231 500 92 228 522 173 1236 319 1375 273 300 734 148 207 1105 1502 332 644 299 264 285 174 489 245 700 362 480 336 327 588 180 235 182 571 692 106 505 294 340 398 827 841 211 330 190 295 1005 107 373 30 267 182 183 2076 182 1153 985 114 316 1015 399 255 292 213 284 862 139 967 966 971 303 844 512 215 853 230 292 491 262 234 345 496 227 253 226 1118 306 365 300 362 149 309 637 279 189 413 530 268 290 245 964 672 372 236 156 191 500 374 1270 437 271 290 240 624 373 257 658 349 177 511 279 558 250 423 595 213 278 264 314 496 458 261 215 309 685 381 280 638 451 162 182 226 64 527 605 305 345 306 1340 411 1216 483 897 280 2508 1203 241 763 212 339 529 1441 600 303 122 132 1491 557 622 109 269 80 479 300 208 372 632 555 374 150 709 186 146 72 332 339 371 711 308 871 364 679 329 335 232 574 309 379 843 559 117 473 565 144 292 644 793 407 1029 395 192 643 7 380 239 192 198 830 818 633 262 358 417 633 322 187 365 401 587 149 338 129 479 143 128 226 915 388 245 335 234 80 140 725 919 260 198 699 729 240 226 1713 5 911 362 617 409 170 175 427 305 857 285 193 429 194 743 289 211 319 331 399 287 397 769 362 829 251 387 561 310 335 276 128 773 453 681 292 308 560 243 523 262 482 687 625 218 166 501 514 238 333 206 453 210 365 281 704 189 229 814 670 234 153 224 338 1045 756 612 894 616 374 243 307 386 201 296 330 180 233 241 233 349 286 414 459 705 1316 275 387 758 269 412 792 210 292 311 236 432 314 208 565
Previous peak date07-2107-2112-2712-2612-2707-2112-2112-26 --12-2112-2112-2712-0712-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1111-0212-2110-0712-2211-0212-2710-1310-13 --2021-01-0710-1511-1311-0212-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2811-0212-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3010-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-21 --11-0212-2212-2812-2512-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-3007-2107-2112-26 --12-2912-2612-2712-2712-2411-0212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-2810-272021-02-2510-0110-1412-2712-0712-2607-2107-2112-27 --12-2512-2907-2112-2412-2111-0907-2112-2607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-06 --07-2112-2312-2712-2107-2112-2512-2512-2510-1710-2912-2607-2112-2112-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-2712-2812-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-2212-2907-2112-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0107-2112-2806-1112-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2210-2709-2912-2912-3011-0211-0212-2112-2712-2711-0212-2109-2812-2712-2212-2112-3111-022021-01-0212-22 --2021-01-07 --12-2112-2812-2112-2212-2112-2112-3107-2112-2212-2712-0607-2112-0712-2812-2911-0211-0312-2712-0612-27 --12-0810-1410-2612-2612-2107-2111-0112-2112-3011-0412-2111-0312-2712-212021-01-0111-0212-2911-0210-22 --12-2712-2812-2607-212021-01-0411-0211-0212-0611-0212-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2207-2112-0610-1112-2112-2710-1912-1310-1112-1310-1812-3012-2810-1312-252021-01-262021-01-0211-0212-2910-3107-2112-2112-2812-2912-2211-02 --12-3012-2512-2512-2107-2112-2212-2112-2812-26 --2021-01-0412-2211-0907-2112-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-2712-2207-2112-2812-2711-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2510-182021-01-0212-262021-01-042021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-2112-2212-2212-27 -- --12-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-20 --07-2111-0212-0707-2112-2212-2812-2210-1612-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-2712-3112-2812-2512-3112-2112-3012-2611-02
Previous peak daily increment 605 360 61 88 97 285 134 73 260 170 110 176 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 128 109 277 233 262 426 1200 75 166 98 58 234 50 355 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 1167 107 508 94 186 62 122 160 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 107 303 292 268 58 197 249 283 59 91 71 65 1221 82 243 35 53 94 334 34 551 288 38 181 598 151 69 189 72 58 164 27 206 248 187 118 322 216 697 536 64 52 370 76 160 106 184 51 231 206 102 163 146 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 457 90 74 110 661 150 125 54 42 127 82 1697 92 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 218 59 201 57 401 172 103 338 103 106 136 120 476 101 159 52 139 442 57 115 452 143 83 239 134 44 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 153 428 107 1522 469 104 457 71 229 102 480 274 200 90 36 2166 92 419 46 298 36 62 153 186 105 213 296 361 79 62 65 191 105 63 2512 85 723 190 212 23 53 137 105 50 969 105 58 123 106 41 56 277 158 121 1362 90 68 257 125 44 108 227 162 135 347 43 156 174 623 105 81 176 445 286 41 188 39 194 138 65 96 198 80 85 67 174 36 25 417 448 80 147 87 407 65 131 557 209 244 167 97 218 110 102 69 181 42 86 73 839 94 79 108 80 66 102 115 248 293 451 131 156 222 94 55 112 144 189 138 197 67 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 172 56 109 53 140 349 90 44 138 123 360 138 51 559 151 90 110 120 84 245 329 449 390 227 260 138 117 160 65 154 87 296 165 42 369 67 115 217 319 264 83 148 431 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 573
Low between peaks 0 -1 -3 -2 -7 0 3 13 -11 2 -7 -17 -8 3 -2 9 -1 -30 -13 2 -14 -12 9 3 307 -1 55 -9 -14 17 2 31 -8 31 -4 -5 -39 -11 1 -1 -18 -8 -8 -10 -16 -1 3 3 0 8 2 -17 -6 -64 5 -9 2 -2 3 -1 -7 -11 -3 -9 -14 -3 -6 0 4 -11 -4 -9 1 1 2 -1 -13 -19 -5 -8 -4 -11 -5 1 -7 0 53 -3 34 1 -28 -14 -4 -2 -3 -6 -7 -3 -6 -12 -2 -5 2 -1 -5 1 -17 -6 -5 0 -4 -80 -12 1 0 -4 0 0 -5 1 -7 -5 -8 -7 2 -7 -13 -8 -2 -8 -25 -21 1 -27 -25 -2 -5 1 -12 -2 -17 5 2 -1 -8 -12 -19 -9 -1 2 -1 -27 1 -1 12 -5 3 -2 -7 0 -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -12 -3 27 20 2 -5 40 120 1 -18 0 -9 2 58 7 -22 0 0 27 1 -45 -13 2 -3 -10 6 2 5 -15 0 -3 0 0 1 -10 1 15 -14 4 2 8 -5 -12 -3 -7 -6 -7 5 -6 -16 5 1 -7 -3 -7 -4 6 -5 1 6 1 1 3 1 -74 37 0 0 -8 1 -1 -51 -13 -2 1 -20 -4 0 3 0 1 -6 0 -2 0 1 -14 -6 2 -1 -4 -4 -45 3 -6 23 -28 4 -3 -10 -2 -3 -4 -12 -23 3 -5 -4 -7 -11 -5 -1 2 -5 -10 2 -2 -3 -16 -2 -6 -39 -13 -2 1 -1 -4 4 -5 -7 -12 1 -4 -13 -40 3 -9 7 -8 -5 -12 -3 -7 -4 -9 2 -6 -11 -1 5 0 -18 -3 1 -18 16 -9 -22 -4 -6 -4 4 -12 -13 -5 1 -7 -2 1 -4 -2 -1 -12 7 6 -36 -9 -5 -68 0 -11 -19 -2 -6 2 1 0 -3 -6 -48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-08-17 to 2021-08-23

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-08-16 12272 9515 4639 8010 11929 6135 12368 9653 2847 20583 12167 13634 12090 15994 5367 27907 39997 30051 6292 21861 12617 12233 14371 19257 35295 28398 139713 10348 26180 16221 6781 8147 39671 6841 38603 10396 69087 13935 8684 36883 9055 14667 25483 51093 8344 32476 9292 11727 10799 14276 25317 15211 22565 9442 20841 9551 13377 31122 11453 12305 10523 11631 24056 2392 18089 17386 7166 12314 31951 32091 8739 7854 6572 12686 35502 3731 16298 485 6423 5668 7502 29097 4284 61174 35199 4488 11094 41003 12709 12134 13386 6235 6937 26649 4660 19108 36543 19179 9802 35707 6421 13279 40586 9514 4745 7693 8274 7085 12725 9964 6634 6983 7874 28944 12697 12158 8558 9459 4006 10637 35849 15950 7578 11060 9684 10155 7642 7191 9247 20922 12771 10072 4765 7861 23311 12514 62734 10715 5760 12983 8091 29564 10449 4865 30015 15768 6798 19577 7702 27676 10383 12392 26764 6533 13306 8304 9676 32705 10027 11093 7986 7228 34420 9249 8666 31599 11490 12064 4976 9759 2992 9018 22325 13162 8517 9827 29938 16505 49152 23226 36027 14279 97902 47988 7038 30180 9386 10453 11185 67925 26666 16821 5106 4231 79886 11797 32460 4028 5680 7296 21509 4178 4791 10726 16892 10818 20044 6902 27239 6347 5255 2602 13137 9684 11301 39204 12004 43583 13410 17570 9522 4442 8901 17556 9586 8305 32200 14161 4196 15919 22417 6688 9337 23458 28967 10933 43309 12868 6556 34196 173 14479 4614 13173 8441 20861 19031 20402 5909 19765 15586 39416 16481 8317 13250 16142 24207 7074 15806 4218 31182 8450 9742 6407 29960 9855 7465 11428 9799 2491 2904 36518 44286 8576 4875 8307 33818 7937 9766 64436 21436 18721 23443 8559 6785 6582 9146 10017 25558 3626 6944 10507 6952 27129 8018 7025 8914 12579 8551 11328 19969 23029 19248 32502 9855 12056 23619 11687 8312 8207 5261 32342 24806 28115 8074 6561 35681 7336 21230 16093 20346 17384 27541 8577 7502 6425 15959 12864 8565 5325 13482 8993 21450 11120 9183 7667 2362 38494 26440 8145 7151 8928 7885 40637 33375 31864 33745 25660 11799 10695 8330 10769 6813 11392 9537 2037 7149 12632 6867 12834 6470 9264 20577 44150 28475 7531 11846 35174 9141 12170 31953 9173 7874 14447 8951 15200 10942 7892 19011
2021-08-17 12310 9543 4665 8046 11940 6154 12450 9740 2860 20780 12220 13710 12130 16090 5386 27980 40140 30180 6322 21920 12680 12290 14460 19330 35530 28480 140300 10410 26220 16310 6794 8187 39750 6876 39050 10440 69320 13980 8727 37050 9079 14700 25660 51410 8367 32580 9336 11770 10840 14340 25390 15270 22690 9506 20930 9596 13420 31200 11480 12310 10550 11720 24160 2397 18170 17430 7254 12370 32080 32180 8773 7889 6603 12730 35710 3745 16360 487 6461 5700 7531 29640 4312 61380 35330 4507 11140 41160 12770 12190 13430 6271 6977 26820 4684 19250 36730 19330 9850 35850 6421 13310 40750 9544 4798 7693 8326 7121 12790 10020 6669 7018 7919 29120 12730 12250 8598 9517 4039 10690 35950 16010 7606 11120 9770 10190 7686 7192 9450 21020 12820 10090 4777 7893 23390 12570 62920 10780 5817 13030 8132 29660 10500 4900 30160 15820 6828 19660 7747 27770 10420 12460 26860 6567 13350 8304 9722 32790 10100 11140 8023 7276 34530 9324 8717 31690 11530 12100 5001 9790 3002 9105 22420 13210 8569 9870 30150 16570 49350 23300 36170 14340 98400 48150 7054 30300 9422 10530 11270 68230 26760 16890 5127 4250 80220 11880 32560 4043 5721 7307 21590 4224 4821 10790 17000 10900 20070 6925 27350 6374 5275 2612 13190 9740 11360 39420 12050 43720 13480 17670 9570 4496 8941 17690 9634 8370 32210 14250 4218 16000 22510 6713 9382 23560 29060 11010 43480 12930 6596 34340 174 14540 4651 13200 8466 21140 19180 20500 5940 19830 15660 39520 16540 8350 13310 16220 24320 7095 15870 4238 31290 8468 9771 6433 30110 9910 7497 11480 9830 2505 2904 36720 44440 8619 4896 8390 33920 7978 9800 65010 21590 18780 23550 8577 6810 6606 9211 10060 25690 3626 6974 10590 6980 27260 8064 7059 8960 12630 8609 11360 20000 23200 19310 32630 9890 12110 23700 11730 8355 8247 5278 32470 24890 28220 8118 6611 35810 7370 21310 16100 20410 17490 27610 8599 7531 6464 16040 12900 8614 5361 13560 9028 21510 11170 9287 7685 2404 38620 26530 8189 7181 8970 7928 40850 33490 31960 33890 25750 11850 10730 8374 10820 6845 11440 9589 2068 7192 12670 6907 12880 6524 9278 20690 44270 28590 7572 11900 35330 9180 12230 32030 9205 7913 14490 8991 15260 10990 7927 19100
2021-08-18 12350 9567 4690 8060 11970 6154 12510 9790 2860 20980 12280 13750 12160 16190 5409 28050 40280 30290 6339 21980 12720 12350 14530 19410 35820 28580 140900 10440 26250 16420 6795 8232 39850 6902 39360 10470 69580 14020 8763 37220 9112 14730 25840 51720 8416 32720 9361 11810 10900 14380 25490 15310 22820 9577 21030 9601 13460 31210 11500 12320 10570 11790 24240 2397 18230 17500 7328 12390 32220 32320 8810 7936 6629 12760 35820 3745 16440 487 6501 5734 7568 30090 4321 61600 35490 4524 11190 41300 12800 12240 13480 6296 7022 26970 4715 19270 36900 19470 9860 35990 6421 13330 40900 9544 4863 7761 8372 7147 12890 10020 6677 7035 7934 29240 12770 12350 8598 9577 4060 10740 36040 16060 7623 11140 9880 10190 7721 7209 9620 21060 12830 10110 4795 7937 23480 12620 62930 10820 5869 13060 8177 29790 10520 4944 30310 15860 6861 19790 7771 27890 10450 12500 26970 6596 13380 8326 9749 32910 10180 11180 8057 7288 34630 9408 8763 31800 11580 12120 5001 9840 3012 9187 22530 13270 8610 9920 30310 16630 49550 23380 36350 14390 98900 48320 7081 30440 9460 10650 11330 68510 26820 16960 5143 4254 80520 11910 32710 4051 5732 7312 21670 4274 4833 10840 17110 10920 20100 6939 27440 6391 5281 2621 13240 9820 11430 39590 12070 43860 13550 17750 9602 4505 8995 17810 9678 8450 32280 14310 4237 16060 22610 6736 9413 23650 29190 11120 43670 12960 6638 34470 175 14600 4688 13240 8466 21380 19380 20580 5973 19920 15710 39640 16650 8382 13350 16260 24410 7105 15950 4253 31400 8496 9795 6479 30220 9920 7503 11560 9840 2522 2938 36900 44600 8665 4896 8517 34060 8011 9840 65460 21720 18810 23670 8620 6814 6624 9247 10090 25790 3651 6987 10670 6998 27390 8117 7086 8968 12640 8616 11400 20020 23370 19380 32780 9920 12150 23800 11750 8355 8266 5293 32600 24990 28280 8154 6645 35940 7370 21360 16130 20490 17590 27700 8624 7569 6523 16060 12940 8636 5397 13640 9067 21580 11210 9318 7701 2441 38760 26620 8231 7227 9005 7938 41050 33600 32080 34060 25840 11880 10770 8384 10840 6875 11480 9625 2090 7215 12740 6948 12900 6570 9327 20790 44400 28770 7602 11930 35470 9192 12270 32150 9236 7957 14520 9036 15310 11040 7965 19170
2021-08-19 12390 9597 4714 8083 12010 6161 12580 9850 2860 21180 12330 13810 12210 16280 5430 28120 40430 30410 6362 22030 12780 12410 14610 19480 36090 28670 141400 10490 26290 16530 6802 8273 39930 6942 39620 10500 69820 14060 8828 37370 9141 14760 26010 51980 8467 32830 9394 11850 10950 14420 25580 15360 22950 9644 21120 9623 13520 31250 11520 12350 10590 11860 24330 2397 18300 17550 7390 12420 32360 32450 8845 7978 6657 12790 35960 3745 16510 489 6539 5768 7601 30520 4337 61780 35660 4541 11230 41450 12840 12280 13520 6325 7064 27130 4742 19330 37070 19620 9880 36120 6421 13350 41060 9554 4920 7837 8415 7176 12970 10040 6696 7059 7960 29380 12810 12420 8604 9634 4085 10790 36140 16120 7644 11180 9980 10190 7759 7235 9790 21130 12860 10140 4814 7975 23570 12670 63010 10860 5922 13100 8218 29910 10550 4984 30450 15910 6890 19890 7804 28000 10480 12550 27070 6627 13420 8353 9784 33010 10260 11230 8094 7315 34730 9487 8809 31910 11650 12150 5012 9880 3022 9269 22630 13330 8656 9960 30490 16690 49740 23460 36520 14430 99400 48520 7113 30570 9497 10750 11400 68760 26900 17020 5160 4264 80810 11970 32830 4063 5756 7320 21750 4321 4852 10890 17220 10960 20120 6957 27540 6413 5293 2630 13290 9880 11490 39740 12110 44000 13610 17840 9639 4531 9041 17910 9722 8521 32370 14380 4262 16120 22710 6758 9450 23740 29310 11210 43840 13000 6677 34590 177 14670 4725 13270 8474 21590 19540 20670 6004 19970 15770 39760 16730 8413 13400 16310 24500 7120 16020 4270 31490 8521 9812 6517 30350 9940 7520 11630 9859 2536 2971 37040 44770 8707 4896 8638 34160 8046 9870 65850 21860 18850 23770 8681 6827 6644 9296 10120 25910 3684 7006 10740 7020 27510 8165 7116 8992 12660 8644 11450 20040 23500 19440 32910 9950 12200 23900 11780 8369 8293 5309 32730 25080 28360 8192 6683 36050 7383 21430 16170 20560 17690 27800 8656 7602 6587 16100 12980 8670 5432 13720 9104 21640 11250 9378 7718 2478 38880 26720 8265 7265 9041 7963 41230 33730 32180 34210 25950 11920 10810 8408 10860 6905 11530 9667 2115 7244 12790 6988 12940 6617 9399 20870 44530 28940 7637 11970 35600 9215 12320 32250 9265 8002 14550 9077 15370 11080 8000 19250
2021-08-20 12430 9636 4738 8109 12060 6173 12650 9920 2860 21370 12380 13870 12240 16380 5450 28190 40560 30530 6387 22090 12830 12470 14680 19540 36350 28760 141900 10540 26310 16620 6811 8313 39990 6967 39850 10540 70050 14100 8869 37490 9167 14790 26180 52200 8507 32940 9430 11880 10990 14460 25640 15400 23030 9708 21200 9654 13580 31310 11540 12370 10620 11940 24420 2397 18380 17600 7453 12460 32470 32560 8879 8026 6685 12830 36110 3749 16580 491 6576 5800 7626 30910 4358 61950 35790 4559 11280 41590 12890 12310 13560 6355 7105 27290 4767 19430 37230 19770 9910 36230 6421 13380 41210 9573 4972 7914 8455 7208 13040 10070 6721 7086 7988 29530 12850 12480 8627 9691 4111 10830 36230 16160 7668 11230 10070 10210 7799 7260 9950 21200 12890 10180 4834 8008 23640 12720 63130 10920 5974 13130 8259 30010 10600 5022 30560 15960 6918 19990 7840 28100 10520 12610 27160 6658 13460 8377 9823 33110 10330 11270 8124 7348 34830 9562 8856 32000 11710 12170 5027 9920 3032 9351 22720 13380 8703 10000 30680 16750 49930 23540 36670 14470 99700 48690 7151 30690 9533 10840 11470 68980 26980 17060 5179 4277 81030 12030 32940 4076 5785 7329 21820 4363 4875 10950 17320 11010 20150 6977 27640 6435 5308 2640 13350 9940 11550 39860 12140 44140 13660 17930 9678 4567 9083 18000 9767 8587 32460 14460 4283 16190 22800 6781 9489 23840 29420 11290 44000 13050 6714 34680 178 14720 4761 13300 8490 21730 19700 20760 6035 20030 15830 39860 16810 8444 13450 16360 24590 7137 16090 4288 31560 8541 9832 6558 30470 9980 7542 11690 9883 2550 3001 37150 44880 8748 4903 8746 34260 8082 9900 66160 22000 18890 23880 8725 6844 6666 9350 10150 26030 3719 7029 10820 7044 27620 8210 7147 9023 12690 8681 11480 20070 23610 19500 33040 9980 12240 23980 11820 8395 8325 5325 32850 25160 28450 8232 6724 36150 7404 21490 16210 20630 17790 27880 8683 7632 6639 16160 13020 8708 5467 13790 9138 21700 11290 9453 7736 2514 39010 26790 8298 7299 9077 7995 41410 33830 32280 34360 26030 11960 10850 8439 10900 6935 11570 9712 2139 7275 12830 7027 12970 6664 9438 20960 44630 29110 7673 12020 35700 9244 12370 32350 9295 8039 14590 9117 15420 11120 8034 19330
2021-08-21 12470 9668 4762 8137 12100 6187 12720 9990 2860 21550 12430 13930 12270 16470 5469 28260 40700 30610 6412 22140 12890 12520 14760 19590 36510 28840 142200 10590 26330 16700 6820 8353 40050 6982 40040 10580 70270 14150 8913 37590 9193 14820 26350 52370 8552 33050 9467 11920 11020 14480 25700 15440 23120 9773 21290 9687 13620 31360 11560 12400 10640 12020 24510 2397 18450 17650 7496 12500 32570 32660 8912 8063 6713 12870 36260 3757 16640 493 6613 5832 7646 31260 4379 62110 35900 4576 11330 41740 12940 12350 13610 6386 7146 27440 4791 19530 37350 19830 9950 36330 6441 13410 41310 9593 5022 7992 8496 7241 13110 10100 6747 7114 8017 29690 12890 12530 8653 9747 4137 10880 36330 16200 7692 11270 10160 10230 7840 7285 10110 21280 12930 10220 4851 8041 23710 12770 63250 10970 6026 13170 8299 30120 10640 5060 30630 16010 6946 20080 7877 28200 10550 12660 27260 6689 13500 8404 9862 33200 10410 11310 8148 7382 34930 9637 8903 32080 11760 12200 5043 9960 3042 9433 22820 13430 8751 10030 30880 16810 50120 23610 36820 14510 100000 48830 7172 30810 9569 10920 11550 69150 27060 17100 5198 4292 81210 12100 33050 4089 5816 7338 21900 4398 4899 11010 17430 11070 20170 6997 27740 6459 5323 2650 13400 10000 11610 39960 12180 44270 13700 18030 9718 4605 9124 18070 9812 8651 32550 14540 4297 16260 22850 6803 9528 23930 29530 11370 44170 13090 6751 34750 179 14780 4797 13330 8508 21930 19850 20850 6066 20070 15890 39970 16870 8475 13500 16420 24670 7155 16150 4305 31620 8556 9849 6597 30610 10020 7566 11740 9908 2563 3031 37240 45010 8788 4917 8792 34350 8119 9940 66430 22130 18940 23980 8779 6862 6687 9406 10190 26140 3755 7053 10890 7069 27750 8256 7178 9057 12730 8722 11510 20090 23730 19560 33170 10010 12290 24030 11850 8424 8358 5342 32970 25240 28530 8272 6766 36240 7427 21560 16230 20690 17890 27950 8712 7662 6697 16220 13060 8748 5502 13870 9173 21760 11330 9532 7754 2550 39130 26860 8328 7332 9113 8028 41520 33920 32380 34500 26110 12010 10890 8472 10940 6965 11610 9757 2163 7307 12880 7066 13010 6712 9470 21010 44710 29250 7710 12070 35810 9275 12420 32440 9324 8076 14630 9156 15480 11160 8068 19410
2021-08-22 12500 9708 4787 8167 12140 6203 12790 10070 2860 21740 12480 14000 12290 16560 5487 28330 40830 30690 6440 22200 12950 12580 14830 19640 36710 28920 142600 10640 26360 16790 6831 8391 40120 6999 40180 10620 70490 14190 8941 37660 9219 14850 26530 52530 8587 33160 9507 11960 11050 14500 25760 15480 23190 9836 21370 9725 13660 31430 11590 12430 10660 12100 24600 2400 18530 17700 7544 12550 32680 32760 8944 8101 6741 12910 36420 3767 16700 495 6650 5864 7660 31610 4403 62240 36050 4594 11380 41890 12990 12380 13650 6418 7186 27600 4815 19640 37490 19920 9980 36440 6477 13440 41400 9618 5069 8073 8536 7274 13170 10140 6777 7145 8050 29850 12920 12570 8685 9802 4165 10930 36420 16240 7717 11330 10240 10250 7882 7320 10250 21370 12970 10240 4873 8073 23770 12820 63400 11030 6078 13210 8339 30220 10690 5097 30700 16060 6973 20160 7917 28290 10580 12720 27350 6721 13540 8439 9904 33280 10480 11350 8178 7422 35040 9710 8951 32160 11820 12210 5062 9990 3052 9516 22910 13470 8801 10070 31080 16880 50310 23690 36970 14550 100300 48950 7208 30930 9604 10990 11620 69310 27140 17140 5217 4308 81350 12170 33150 4103 5851 7348 21970 4443 4925 11060 17530 11140 20200 7018 27840 6484 5341 2660 13450 10060 11670 40040 12220 44410 13770 18120 9760 4649 9164 18140 9857 8713 32670 14620 4308 16330 22930 6826 9569 24030 29600 11440 44330 13150 6788 34820 180 14810 4833 13350 8530 22050 19990 20940 6096 20110 15960 40070 16940 8507 13550 16480 24730 7175 16210 4323 31670 8574 9868 6640 30740 10060 7593 11800 9936 2576 3061 37330 45120 8829 4935 8841 34430 8156 9970 66630 22270 18990 24090 8829 6882 6710 9465 10230 26260 3793 7079 10970 7095 27860 8300 7210 9096 12760 8769 11560 20120 23820 19620 33300 10050 12350 24100 11890 8459 8394 5359 33090 25320 28630 8314 6810 36340 7455 21640 16260 20770 18000 28030 8749 7690 6757 16280 13090 8791 5537 13940 9206 21810 11370 9620 7773 2587 39260 26960 8357 7363 9150 8066 41630 34010 32470 34640 26170 12060 10920 8509 10990 6995 11660 9805 2189 7341 12920 7104 13050 6760 9519 21060 44800 29400 7749 12120 35890 9309 12480 32540 9354 8112 14670 9194 15540 11210 8101 19490
2021-08-23 12540 9761 4811 8199 12220 6220 12870 10150 2860 21920 12530 14070 12340 16650 5506 28400 40960 30810 6468 22250 13010 12630 14910 19730 36990 29010 143000 10700 26410 16870 6843 8430 40200 7029 40360 10660 70710 14230 8982 37780 9243 14880 26700 52810 8633 33270 9547 12000 11110 14530 25830 15520 23310 9900 21450 9765 13700 31500 11610 12470 10690 12190 24700 2405 18600 17740 7607 12600 32830 32900 8977 8176 6770 12950 36580 3779 16760 497 6686 5895 7699 32070 4428 62470 36200 4612 11430 42040 13050 12430 13690 6451 7225 27760 4839 19760 37680 20080 10020 36600 6571 13460 41530 9644 5116 8155 8577 7309 13230 10190 6808 7177 8083 30010 12980 12630 8719 9858 4193 10980 36520 16280 7744 11380 10330 10280 7924 7367 10380 21460 13020 10260 4904 8104 23850 12880 63550 11090 6130 13260 8379 30320 10740 5134 30800 16110 7000 20250 7958 28390 10620 12780 27440 6753 13580 8487 9947 33370 10550 11400 8216 7462 35140 9783 8998 32270 11900 12240 5083 10020 3062 9600 23000 13520 8851 10120 31280 16940 50500 23760 37110 14590 100700 49180 7243 31050 9640 11060 11700 69540 27230 17180 5237 4325 81640 12250 33250 4117 5887 7358 22050 4498 4952 11120 17630 11210 20220 7039 27950 6509 5359 2670 13500 10120 11730 40170 12260 44550 13810 18220 9802 4696 9203 18240 9902 8774 32820 14700 4328 16410 23020 6849 9611 24120 29740 11520 44490 13200 6825 34930 181 14870 4869 13380 8554 22170 20130 21040 6127 20170 16030 40170 17000 8538 13600 16540 24820 7194 16270 4341 31750 8595 9890 6678 30880 10110 7622 11850 9964 2588 3091 37470 45260 8869 4955 8986 34560 8193 10000 66940 22410 19040 24190 8914 6904 6732 9527 10270 26380 3832 7107 11050 7122 27990 8344 7242 9136 12800 8818 11610 20150 23940 19680 33420 10080 12400 24200 11930 8497 8431 5377 33210 25400 28720 8355 6854 36430 7484 21710 16300 20830 18100 28140 8781 7718 6833 16350 13130 8835 5572 14010 9240 21870 11420 9712 7791 2624 39380 27100 8402 7393 9187 8105 41810 34130 32570 34780 26260 12110 10960 8548 11030 7025 11710 9853 2214 7376 12960 7143 13100 6808 9595 21130 44900 29670 7789 12170 36030 9345 12530 32680 9384 8166 14710 9232 15600 11260 8134 19580

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-08-17 to 2021-08-23

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-08-16 12272 9515 4639 8010 11929 6135 12368 9653 2847 20583 12167 13634 12090 15994 5367 27907 39997 30051 6292 21861 12617 12233 14371 19257 35295 28398 139713 10348 26180 16221 6781 8147 39671 6841 38603 10396 69087 13935 8684 36883 9055 14667 25483 51093 8344 32476 9292 11727 10799 14276 25317 15211 22565 9442 20841 9551 13377 31122 11453 12305 10523 11631 24056 2392 18089 17386 7166 12314 31951 32091 8739 7854 6572 12686 35502 3731 16298 485 6423 5668 7502 29097 4284 61174 35199 4488 11094 41003 12709 12134 13386 6235 6937 26649 4660 19108 36543 19179 9802 35707 6421 13279 40586 9514 4745 7693 8274 7085 12725 9964 6634 6983 7874 28944 12697 12158 8558 9459 4006 10637 35849 15950 7578 11060 9684 10155 7642 7191 9247 20922 12771 10072 4765 7861 23311 12514 62734 10715 5760 12983 8091 29564 10449 4865 30015 15768 6798 19577 7702 27676 10383 12392 26764 6533 13306 8304 9676 32705 10027 11093 7986 7228 34420 9249 8666 31599 11490 12064 4976 9759 2992 9018 22325 13162 8517 9827 29938 16505 49152 23226 36027 14279 97902 47988 7038 30180 9386 10453 11185 67925 26666 16821 5106 4231 79886 11797 32460 4028 5680 7296 21509 4178 4791 10726 16892 10818 20044 6902 27239 6347 5255 2602 13137 9684 11301 39204 12004 43583 13410 17570 9522 4442 8901 17556 9586 8305 32200 14161 4196 15919 22417 6688 9337 23458 28967 10933 43309 12868 6556 34196 173 14479 4614 13173 8441 20861 19031 20402 5909 19765 15586 39416 16481 8317 13250 16142 24207 7074 15806 4218 31182 8450 9742 6407 29960 9855 7465 11428 9799 2491 2904 36518 44286 8576 4875 8307 33818 7937 9766 64436 21436 18721 23443 8559 6785 6582 9146 10017 25558 3626 6944 10507 6952 27129 8018 7025 8914 12579 8551 11328 19969 23029 19248 32502 9855 12056 23619 11687 8312 8207 5261 32342 24806 28115 8074 6561 35681 7336 21230 16093 20346 17384 27541 8577 7502 6425 15959 12864 8565 5325 13482 8993 21450 11120 9183 7667 2362 38494 26440 8145 7151 8928 7885 40637 33375 31864 33745 25660 11799 10695 8330 10769 6813 11392 9537 2037 7149 12632 6867 12834 6470 9264 20577 44150 28475 7531 11846 35174 9141 12170 31953 9173 7874 14447 8951 15200 10942 7892 19011
2021-08-17 12310 9563 4667 8048 11980 6159 12460 9750 2878 20730 12220 13720 12140 16070 5387 27980 40130 30170 6322 21920 12680 12290 14460 19340 35570 28480 140200 10410 26230 16300 6792 8188 39760 6873 38850 10440 69320 13980 8732 37000 9078 14700 25660 51370 8395 32580 9336 11770 10850 14310 25400 15250 22690 9503 20920 9600 13420 31210 11480 12330 10550 11730 24160 2402 18170 17430 7236 12360 32090 32230 8771 7911 6602 12730 35700 3747 16360 489 6457 5696 7532 29490 4313 61360 35350 4506 11150 41160 12770 12180 13420 6271 6971 26780 4684 19250 36710 19350 9840 35850 6491 13320 40730 9546 4792 7769 8317 7125 12790 10040 6672 7022 7915 29120 12750 12220 8619 9515 4028 10690 35950 15990 7606 11120 9780 10200 7689 7226 9400 21050 12810 10110 4790 7895 23390 12570 62960 10800 5802 13030 8132 29660 10500 4897 30120 15820 6828 19660 7750 27770 10420 12460 26850 6569 13340 8344 9722 32790 10100 11130 8025 7280 34530 9316 8716 31700 11560 12090 5006 9792 3000 9091 22420 13210 8573 9880 30150 16570 49370 23300 36180 14330 98400 48180 7071 30310 9421 10510 11270 68190 26760 16880 5124 4254 80160 11900 32580 4042 5728 7307 21590 4231 4824 10790 17010 10910 20110 6928 27350 6375 5272 2613 13180 9740 11370 39340 12050 43730 13460 17660 9575 4502 8940 17660 9636 8372 32330 14250 4216 16000 22510 6715 9383 23560 29090 11010 43490 12930 6586 34310 174 14540 4647 13200 8475 21010 19180 20500 5937 19820 15660 39510 16540 8353 13300 16220 24300 7095 15870 4239 31260 8469 9765 6445 30110 9910 7498 11490 9830 2505 2926 36660 44420 8621 4904 8425 33940 7979 9804 64760 21590 18780 23560 8622 6816 6605 9209 10070 25690 3667 6976 10580 6978 27260 8070 7057 8965 12640 8614 11380 20020 23160 19310 32640 9890 12110 23710 11740 8358 8249 5282 32470 24870 28210 8117 6617 35770 7372 21310 16130 20410 17500 27640 8609 7533 6514 16040 12900 8610 5360 13560 9026 21500 11160 9309 7689 2403 38620 26550 8191 7177 8964 7927 40800 33500 31970 33890 25760 11850 10730 8378 10830 6847 11440 9597 2071 7190 12670 6907 12890 6512 9319 20660 44270 28700 7576 11910 35310 9178 12230 32070 9209 7922 14480 8989 15270 10990 7930 19100
2021-08-18 12350 9599 4691 8074 12030 6172 12530 9820 2894 20850 12270 13780 12180 16140 5404 28060 40270 30280 6347 21980 12740 12350 14540 19410 35810 28550 140700 10470 26260 16380 6801 8231 39850 6902 39110 10490 69560 14010 8777 37140 9107 14730 25840 51640 8440 32680 9371 11810 10900 14350 25490 15280 22810 9575 21000 9636 13470 31270 11500 12350 10580 11810 24230 2414 18240 17470 7303 12390 32220 32360 8800 7958 6628 12760 35810 3755 16420 493 6494 5722 7561 29800 4334 61550 35510 4522 11200 41310 12810 12220 13470 6302 7010 26910 4709 19350 36840 19530 9870 35990 6533 13350 40880 9571 4836 7827 8347 7159 12860 10110 6699 7055 7934 29260 12800 12300 8662 9573 4036 10740 36050 16040 7630 11180 9890 10230 7734 7259 9520 21140 12850 10140 4811 7925 23450 12620 63110 10860 5837 13070 8175 29760 10540 4933 30230 15860 6852 19760 7790 27850 10450 12520 26940 6601 13370 8370 9758 32890 10170 11180 8061 7317 34630 9382 8761 31800 11620 12120 5020 9826 3010 9150 22520 13270 8629 9920 30350 16630 49570 23380 36350 14370 98800 48370 7100 30440 9458 10590 11340 68450 26830 16940 5139 4271 80440 11980 32700 4055 5759 7314 21680 4271 4847 10850 17120 10960 20170 6949 27450 6400 5287 2623 13220 9810 11410 39470 12090 43880 13520 17740 9617 4545 8978 17760 9683 8444 32440 14340 4230 16060 22600 6736 9421 23670 29190 11100 43660 12980 6618 34420 176 14600 4675 13230 8496 21170 19340 20590 5966 19890 15740 39620 16600 8387 13370 16250 24380 7114 15920 4256 31350 8484 9786 6474 30250 9950 7520 11540 9870 2518 2943 36800 44560 8665 4918 8525 34060 8015 9834 65130 21690 18840 23680 8674 6832 6626 9271 10110 25800 3693 7005 10640 7000 27370 8123 7084 9000 12670 8657 11410 20060 23310 19370 32760 9920 12170 23800 11770 8388 8285 5302 32600 24940 28290 8158 6668 35840 7397 21390 16150 20470 17610 27730 8639 7566 6574 16100 12930 8645 5398 13610 9057 21560 11200 9390 7709 2430 38740 26630 8230 7210 8993 7958 40970 33620 32070 34050 25860 11890 10770 8413 10880 6877 11490 9647 2088 7210 12710 6948 12940 6540 9380 20740 44370 28890 7612 11950 35440 9205 12290 32190 9241 7968 14510 9025 15330 11040 7966 19190
2021-08-19 12390 9635 4719 8103 12070 6187 12600 9900 2912 20970 12320 13850 12220 16210 5421 28140 40400 30400 6371 22030 12790 12400 14620 19480 36050 28620 141300 10530 26300 16460 6811 8274 39920 6937 39340 10530 69780 14050 8839 37280 9135 14760 26010 51890 8484 32790 9403 11850 10940 14380 25570 15310 22930 9644 21080 9673 13520 31350 11530 12370 10600 11890 24320 2425 18300 17510 7363 12430 32350 32480 8829 8001 6654 12800 35930 3764 16490 496 6531 5749 7588 30100 4356 61710 35670 4538 11260 41470 12860 12250 13510 6333 7050 27030 4733 19470 36970 19710 9910 36110 6579 13380 41030 9597 4879 7888 8381 7194 12920 10180 6731 7083 7954 29410 12840 12360 8695 9632 4046 10790 36140 16080 7651 11230 9990 10260 7778 7293 9640 21240 12890 10180 4831 7957 23520 12660 63250 10920 5874 13110 8216 29850 10590 4969 30350 15910 6876 19850 7831 27940 10480 12580 27020 6634 13400 8396 9795 32970 10240 11230 8097 7355 34740 9445 8808 31900 11690 12150 5039 9856 3019 9212 22610 13310 8681 9960 30550 16700 49780 23460 36500 14410 99300 48580 7131 30570 9495 10660 11410 68700 26910 16990 5157 4284 80710 12060 32810 4069 5794 7321 21760 4308 4871 10910 17230 11020 20230 6969 27560 6425 5307 2633 13250 9870 11470 39590 12130 44020 13580 17820 9658 4592 9016 17850 9729 8510 32550 14430 4253 16120 22690 6757 9459 23780 29290 11180 43840 13030 6649 34530 177 14660 4705 13260 8517 21310 19490 20680 6004 19940 15810 39720 16650 8421 13420 16290 24460 7135 15980 4274 31430 8500 9805 6492 30390 9990 7546 11590 9890 2530 2963 36930 44690 8705 4934 8623 34160 8051 9865 65470 21810 18880 23780 8731 6851 6648 9340 10150 25910 3723 7034 10710 7024 27470 8172 7111 9038 12710 8703 11450 20100 23440 19420 32900 9950 12220 23900 11820 8424 8322 5320 32720 25010 28360 8202 6720 35920 7425 21470 16190 20530 17720 27830 8669 7597 6638 16160 12970 8683 5435 13660 9088 21630 11230 9483 7727 2459 38840 26720 8262 7240 9024 7992 41110 33750 32180 34200 25950 11940 10810 8450 10930 6906 11540 9696 2111 7238 12740 6988 12980 6571 9455 20820 44450 29070 7651 12000 35570 9238 12350 32280 9273 8013 14550 9063 15390 11080 7999 19280
2021-08-20 12430 9678 4741 8133 12110 6204 12680 9970 2929 21090 12370 13910 12250 16270 5439 28210 40530 30510 6394 22080 12850 12460 14700 19550 36280 28680 141700 10590 26330 16530 6822 8310 39990 6965 39560 10570 69990 14070 8885 37400 9162 14790 26170 52110 8524 32890 9431 11890 10980 14410 25640 15340 23020 9712 21150 9714 13580 31420 11550 12390 10610 11980 24400 2438 18370 17540 7422 12460 32470 32600 8859 8047 6680 12830 36050 3774 16550 500 6569 5778 7614 30400 4381 61880 35810 4555 11310 41620 12910 12280 13560 6364 7090 27160 4756 19590 37090 19880 9940 36230 6625 13410 41170 9620 4922 7948 8411 7229 12980 10250 6766 7115 7978 29550 12880 12420 8720 9693 4059 10840 36240 16120 7672 11290 10080 10280 7821 7323 9760 21340 12930 10210 4851 7987 23580 12710 63400 10980 5912 13150 8256 29940 10630 5005 30450 15950 6900 19930 7872 28020 10520 12650 27100 6666 13430 8422 9830 33050 10300 11270 8131 7399 34840 9504 8847 31990 11760 12180 5059 9886 3027 9278 22710 13360 8733 10000 30740 16760 49970 23540 36660 14430 99700 48750 7164 30700 9532 10720 11480 68920 26990 17040 5173 4300 80930 12140 32900 4083 5830 7329 21840 4345 4896 10970 17340 11080 20290 6993 27660 6450 5325 2644 13290 9930 11510 39710 12170 44160 13630 17900 9700 4639 9052 17930 9774 8575 32650 14520 4272 16180 22770 6778 9492 23870 29400 11250 44000 13080 6681 34620 179 14710 4736 13280 8538 21400 19630 20760 6039 20000 15880 39820 16700 8454 13470 16330 24530 7156 16030 4291 31500 8514 9825 6514 30520 10040 7574 11640 9920 2543 2983 37040 44780 8747 4954 8723 34260 8087 9895 65770 21930 18930 23880 8779 6870 6669 9406 10190 26020 3754 7065 10770 7049 27570 8221 7136 9078 12740 8752 11480 20150 23550 19480 33010 9970 12280 23980 11850 8463 8361 5338 32850 25070 28440 8242 6765 35990 7459 21540 16220 20590 17830 27910 8698 7626 6693 16230 13000 8724 5473 13720 9119 21680 11270 9566 7744 2484 38940 26780 8296 7269 9056 8028 41270 33860 32270 34340 26040 11980 10840 8488 10970 6935 11580 9743 2133 7268 12770 7027 13020 6604 9495 20890 44530 29240 7682 12050 35670 9270 12400 32370 9303 8056 14590 9096 15450 11120 8032 19370
2021-08-21 12460 9715 4765 8164 12150 6219 12750 10050 2944 21200 12410 13970 12290 16340 5456 28270 40620 30610 6415 22130 12900 12510 14760 19610 36450 28740 142200 10650 26350 16610 6832 8348 40060 6988 39770 10610 70190 14100 8930 37510 9189 14820 26320 52320 8565 32990 9460 11930 11020 14430 25710 15370 23120 9778 21220 9756 13620 31470 11570 12410 10630 12060 24490 2450 18430 17580 7474 12490 32580 32710 8889 8089 6705 12860 36170 3784 16600 503 6607 5801 7636 30690 4405 62020 35940 4571 11350 41780 12960 12320 13600 6392 7131 27290 4778 19710 37180 20000 9980 36340 6671 13430 41280 9645 4965 8008 8431 7260 13030 10320 6798 7135 7999 29690 12920 12470 8745 9749 4072 10890 36330 16170 7691 11340 10170 10300 7864 7348 9880 21420 12970 10250 4870 8012 23650 12750 63520 11040 5950 13190 8295 30030 10670 5041 30550 15990 6924 20020 7912 28100 10550 12690 27160 6696 13470 8448 9865 33120 10340 11320 8163 7441 34940 9568 8890 32080 11820 12200 5076 9914 3036 9344 22810 13410 8780 10030 30930 16830 50150 23610 36780 14460 100000 48890 7195 30810 9568 10790 11550 69120 27060 17070 5189 4314 81130 12210 32990 4098 5862 7335 21920 4380 4922 11030 17450 11130 20340 7015 27760 6477 5340 2655 13320 9990 11550 39820 12210 44300 13680 17980 9740 4688 9089 18010 9816 8637 32730 14610 4281 16230 22840 6798 9525 23960 29490 11330 44150 13130 6712 34710 181 14770 4767 13300 8559 21490 19770 20840 6062 20050 15950 39910 16760 8486 13520 16380 24580 7178 16070 4309 31560 8528 9844 6533 30640 10090 7598 11680 9950 2554 3000 37150 44880 8780 4974 8801 34360 8124 9926 66090 22040 18970 23980 8831 6890 6692 9469 10230 26140 3786 7095 10830 7075 27660 8268 7161 9118 12770 8800 11500 20190 23670 19530 33100 10000 12340 24030 11890 8497 8400 5353 32970 25130 28510 8283 6804 36060 7487 21620 16240 20640 17940 27990 8724 7655 6745 16280 13030 8766 5508 13770 9150 21720 11300 9641 7764 2509 39030 26830 8328 7293 9087 8058 41350 33960 32350 34470 26120 12020 10880 8528 11000 6964 11630 9782 2149 7289 12800 7066 13060 6633 9525 20960 44580 29400 7709 12100 35770 9296 12450 32440 9329 8096 14640 9128 15500 11170 8065 19460
2021-08-22 12490 9753 4788 8196 12190 6237 12830 10130 2958 21320 12450 14020 12320 16410 5474 28340 40720 30720 6432 22180 12950 12560 14830 19680 36640 28800 142600 10710 26380 16690 6844 8386 40120 7012 39960 10650 70390 14130 8969 37610 9215 14860 26470 52530 8598 33090 9488 11970 11060 14470 25780 15400 23220 9843 21290 9798 13660 31530 11590 12430 10640 12150 24570 2463 18500 17610 7529 12510 32690 32820 8919 8130 6730 12890 36300 3796 16660 507 6646 5826 7661 30980 4431 62170 36080 4588 11400 41930 13010 12350 13650 6420 7172 27420 4801 19840 37300 20130 10030 36450 6721 13460 41390 9670 5008 8070 8458 7292 13090 10380 6831 7159 8024 29840 12950 12530 8761 9805 4086 10940 36430 16210 7714 11400 10260 10340 7907 7379 10000 21510 13020 10280 4889 8037 23710 12790 63660 11090 5989 13230 8335 30120 10720 5078 30650 16020 6948 20100 7953 28180 10590 12750 27230 6726 13500 8472 9901 33200 10410 11360 8197 7483 35040 9627 8933 32170 11880 12220 5096 9938 3045 9413 22900 13450 8829 10070 31100 16890 50330 23690 36910 14490 100300 49020 7228 30920 9605 10850 11630 69320 27130 17120 5207 4332 81330 12280 33080 4112 5895 7341 22000 4419 4949 11090 17560 11180 20390 7036 27870 6503 5355 2667 13350 10060 11590 39930 12240 44420 13740 18070 9783 4739 9123 18090 9857 8700 32830 14700 4295 16290 22910 6819 9561 24050 29570 11400 44300 13170 6744 34790 183 14820 4799 13320 8582 21560 19920 20920 6083 20100 16030 40000 16810 8519 13570 16420 24610 7200 16120 4327 31610 8542 9864 6553 30770 10140 7622 11730 9980 2564 3019 37260 44960 8816 4996 8881 34460 8160 9957 66360 22130 19000 24080 8882 6911 6714 9534 10280 26240 3819 7126 10890 7102 27750 8314 7189 9161 12800 8852 11530 20230 23780 19590 33190 10030 12400 24100 11930 8531 8440 5370 33090 25200 28580 8326 6843 36150 7512 21700 16270 20690 18050 28070 8756 7683 6796 16340 13060 8808 5544 13810 9181 21770 11330 9708 7781 2535 39110 26890 8361 7321 9117 8089 41430 34070 32440 34600 26200 12070 10920 8563 11030 6993 11670 9829 2165 7316 12820 7106 13100 6660 9562 21030 44640 29560 7740 12150 35860 9326 12510 32500 9358 8137 14680 9158 15560 11210 8097 19550
2021-08-23 12530 9802 4814 8228 12240 6255 12910 10210 2974 21440 12510 14100 12360 16480 5491 28410 40850 30830 6457 22230 13020 12610 14910 19750 36860 28860 143100 10770 26430 16760 6855 8432 40200 7041 40180 10690 70640 14170 9015 37750 9242 14890 26650 52800 8631 33200 9524 12010 11120 14500 25860 15420 23330 9916 21370 9837 13710 31600 11610 12450 10660 12240 24660 2476 18560 17640 7592 12540 32830 32950 8949 8179 6756 12920 36430 3807 16720 510 6684 5856 7690 31310 4457 62380 36240 4605 11460 42090 13060 12400 13690 6453 7213 27560 4823 19970 37440 20300 10070 36590 6774 13490 41530 9700 5051 8138 8487 7327 13140 10450 6868 7187 8049 29980 13000 12600 8789 9865 4100 11000 36530 16250 7740 11460 10350 10360 7949 7421 10120 21620 13070 10310 4914 8068 23790 12830 63820 11160 6028 13270 8374 30210 10760 5114 30760 16060 6972 20190 7994 28260 10620 12820 27300 6761 13530 8499 9938 33290 10480 11410 8232 7529 35150 9690 8987 32280 11940 12250 5116 9965 3053 9482 23000 13490 8885 10110 31310 16960 50540 23770 37070 14540 100800 49250 7261 31050 9641 10910 11700 69570 27210 17170 5226 4354 81620 12350 33180 4127 5935 7350 22080 4457 4977 11140 17670 11240 20450 7061 27970 6530 5373 2678 13380 10120 11630 40050 12290 44560 13790 18150 9827 4789 9159 18180 9902 8762 32940 14800 4306 16360 22990 6840 9602 24160 29680 11480 44480 13220 6776 34900 184 14880 4831 13350 8606 21670 20060 21010 6107 20160 16100 40100 16860 8552 13630 16460 24670 7222 16170 4345 31720 8558 9884 6567 30920 10190 7651 11770 10010 2577 3040 37410 45080 8858 5015 8983 34570 8197 9989 66710 22250 19050 24190 8941 6935 6736 9606 10320 26360 3852 7156 10970 7128 27860 8365 7219 9205 12840 8906 11570 20280 23920 19640 33300 10060 12460 24210 11980 8573 8480 5388 33220 25260 28650 8370 6897 36220 7547 21780 16300 20740 18160 28170 8786 7712 6849 16410 13090 8852 5585 13860 9212 21830 11370 9800 7799 2566 39210 26990 8400 7353 9150 8127 41590 34190 32530 34750 26290 12120 10950 8604 11070 7022 11720 9886 2181 7346 12860 7145 13140 6691 9620 21110 44720 29760 7776 12210 36010 9361 12570 32610 9393 8185 14720 9199 15620 11260 8131 19640

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.