COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-08-21 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-08-21

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-08-21

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-06-2112-272021-07-082021-07-062021-07-062021-06-232021-07-11 -- --2021-03-252021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-08-102021-07-062021-07-082021-07-082021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-122021-07-0712-292021-08-1012-272021-07-0812-072021-07-072021-05-102021-07-062021-01-012021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-052021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-07-072021-07-062021-06-272021-07-072021-08-012021-07-082021-07-082021-06-202021-07-042021-07-072021-07-092021-07-07 --2021-07-0710-282021-07-072021-07-06 --2021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-06-222021-06-202021-07-072021-07-272021-07-062021-07-062021-07-11 --2021-08-092021-07-022021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-07-082021-07-072021-07-062021-01-022021-07-07 --2021-07-07 --2021-08-082021-07-0712-222021-06-212021-07-0807-212021-08-08 --2021-06-212021-08-102021-07-072021-07-072021-06-132021-07-062021-06-222021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-08-102021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-092021-07-072021-07-052021-07-06 --2021-06-252021-07-082021-07-07 --2021-06-202021-08-102021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-042021-07-0610-042021-07-072021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-07 --2021-07-072021-07-092021-07-072021-07-07 --2021-07-092021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-08-102021-07-082021-07-08 --2021-07-072021-07-042021-06-202021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-112021-07-072021-06-2312-212021-07-0812-212021-07-072021-07-072021-07-112021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-07-0712-272021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-01-032021-07-032021-07-082021-07-072021-07-202021-07-1312-262021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-07 --2021-07-102021-07-052021-07-0712-082021-07-08 --2021-07-082021-07-072021-07-29 --2021-07-072021-06-272021-07-072021-07-072021-08-092021-07-042021-07-132021-07-082021-07-062021-07-032021-07-072021-08-082021-08-102021-07-1307-21 --2021-07-072021-07-032021-07-082021-07-2510-042021-08-102021-07-142021-07-072021-07-042021-07-062021-07-072021-07-112021-07-062021-07-262021-07-072021-07-082021-08-082021-07-072021-06-292021-06-22 --2021-07-072021-06-222021-08-082021-07-072021-01-01 --2021-07-112021-07-072021-07-112021-07-072021-07-082021-07-0710-042021-08-0912-272021-07-082021-07-062021-07-052021-07-072021-07-042021-07-082021-07-082021-08-102021-08-102021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-082021-07-072021-07-062021-07-0612-23 --2021-06-282021-07-062021-07-082021-07-0807-212021-08-092021-07-072021-07-062021-08-1012-292021-07-072021-08-102021-07-052021-07-072021-08-092021-07-072021-08-082021-07-0610-042021-07-112021-07-082021-07-062021-07-07 --2021-07-082021-06-272021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-06-202021-07-072021-07-062021-07-052021-07-07 --2021-07-052021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-06-222021-07-08 --2021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-282021-07-112021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-0712-062021-08-102021-07-072021-07-052021-07-082021-07-072021-07-052021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-092021-07-062021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-08-092021-07-072021-07-132021-07-072021-07-07 --10-042021-07-07 --2021-06-242021-08-092021-08-102021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-08-102021-07-072021-06-292021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-06-292021-07-082021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-06-30
Peak daily increment 137 102 51 115 105 84 101 106 127 93 63 101 57 93 260 276 49 139 152 144 210 103 390 176 1249 72 157 159 95 61 208 42 484 107 478 103 51 176 68 54 218 621 60 258 94 72 97 74 161 32 158 70 159 67 60 96 115 24 101 227 41 118 170 72 269 243 82 69 69 121 446 20 142 12 66 114 45 49 607 376 53 101 229 122 140 92 53 86 246 48 400 52 269 119 184 189 296 48 76 64 122 88 112 65 66 295 73 85 63 90 22 82 145 105 58 110 81 66 37 237 75 67 56 82 274 123 631 95 58 63 113 163 69 229 78 84 156 152 61 113 143 65 146 64 65 151 82 73 86 197 80 84 132 101 71 74 56 18 62 189 84 65 71 247 93 271 311 301 117 707 284 51 213 80 98 86 727 108 120 41 47 442 169 40 71 105 124 37 101 114 274 97 196 49 44 31 23 94 116 384 105 153 77 146 186 94 256 78 69 389 101 35 203 228 77 96 126 322 85 264 158 38 255 4 131 56 113 159 343 203 104 83 121 297 57 114 150 153 52 140 67 213 75 69 49 207 83 53 116 70 19 36 253 255 94 83 195 65 96 482 24 184 59 277 106 42 49 81 68 345 113 40 75 68 460 57 68 77 92 75 303 200 152 243 70 131 141 87 77 56 43 243 339 240 74 428 57 145 101 47 151 219 83 60 137 116 92 38 37 78 100 105 131 101 65 226 184 59 64 28 79 352 191 157 313 195 111 73 76 84 38 102 88 79 94 102 95 76 138 380 351 71 81 243 59 92 185 99 63 65 76 117 120 74 138
Days since peak 61 237 44 46 46 59 41 149 45 46 46 11 46 44 44 46 45 46 45 46 45 46 40 45 235 11 237 44 257 45 103 46 232 45 45 45 16 45 45 46 45 45 46 46 45 45 47 45 46 55 45 20 44 44 62 48 45 43 45 45 297 45 46 44 45 45 46 45 45 45 60 62 45 25 46 46 41 12 50 45 45 45 45 45 47 44 45 46 231 45 45 13 45 242 61 44 396 13 61 11 45 45 69 46 60 46 45 45 11 45 45 45 43 45 47 46 57 44 45 62 11 45 46 46 48 46 321 45 44 44 45 45 45 45 43 45 45 43 46 45 45 45 47 11 44 44 45 48 62 45 45 46 41 45 59 243 44 243 45 45 41 44 45 45 44 45 237 45 44 45 230 49 44 45 32 39 238 45 45 45 45 45 42 47 45 256 44 44 45 23 45 55 45 45 12 48 39 44 46 49 45 13 11 39 396 45 49 44 27 321 11 38 45 48 46 45 41 46 26 45 44 13 45 53 60 45 60 13 45 232 41 45 41 45 44 45 321 12 237 44 46 47 45 48 44 44 11 11 45 45 45 13 45 46 46 241 54 46 44 44 396 12 45 46 11 235 45 11 47 45 12 45 13 46 321 41 44 46 45 44 55 45 45 45 45 45 45 46 45 45 62 45 46 47 45 47 45 45 45 46 45 45 60 44 45 46 45 24 41 45 46 45 45 258 11 45 47 44 45 47 45 46 45 43 46 45 44 45 12 45 39 45 45 321 45 58 12 11 45 45 44 11 45 53 45 45 45 46 45 53 44 45 46 44 52
Last total 12623 9866 4762 8220 12220 6351 12889 10068 3193 21650 12493 14035 12342 16504 5516 28289 40631 30636 6470 22144 12977 12519 15031 19695 36795 28830 142294 10666 26418 16648 6879 8375 40130 6983 39842 10653 70221 14199 8976 37540 9186 15003 26352 52623 8601 33104 9582 11937 11077 14430 25666 15541 23198 9746 21262 9833 13698 31802 11628 12729 10661 12193 24699 2555 18536 17695 7525 12624 32726 32834 8932 8253 6795 12915 37342 3964 16664 507 6696 5801 7676 32883 4495 62282 36027 4633 11374 41930 13058 12384 13605 6415 7258 27401 4814 20158 37397 20246 9986 36473 7114 13683 41321 9770 4933 8363 8780 7407 13046 10327 6922 7244 8345 29916 12957 12660 8809 9850 4170 10969 36344 16195 7751 11384 10307 10556 7926 7388 10122 21863 13119 10256 4976 8057 23762 12853 65358 11067 5984 13229 8308 30065 10804 5137 30487 16044 6951 19974 7998 28138 10603 12759 27168 6764 13524 8555 10015 33138 10604 11300 8227 7708 35014 9566 8946 32124 11911 12195 5264 10011 3094 9440 22791 13431 8764 10134 30933 16883 50190 23660 36740 14567 99877 49069 7241 30758 9679 10745 11611 69154 27110 17154 5214 4393 81179 12271 32896 4156 5994 7375 21941 4554 4977 11062 17573 11426 20390 7123 27859 6552 5463 2675 13599 10064 11610 39816 12252 44199 13800 18325 9944 4865 9095 18002 9898 8579 33491 14561 4324 16485 22871 6839 9632 24004 29712 11320 44196 13208 6724 34688 186 14872 5029 13372 8669 21515 20161 21049 6198 20062 16000 39968 16782 8484 13613 16870 24874 7216 16269 4331 31595 8573 9863 6623 30713 10203 7673 11749 9997 2590 3057 37173 45054 8793 5177 8949 34432 8138 10010 65765 421 22348 19065 24005 9067 7100 6744 9491 10262 26297 4041 7112 10870 7111 28407 8282 7201 9274 12863 9092 11594 20321 23687 19539 33128 10070 12443 24018 12018 8571 8430 5533 33089 25206 28752 8382 6942 36210 7573 21630 16333 21198 17949 28181 8771 7689 7166 16439 13088 8855 5549 13964 9175 21764 11378 9773 7908 2662 38994 26982 8450 7323 9251 8195 41461 34035 32353 34443 26184 12101 10905 8692 11087 6987 11657 9933 2363 7647 12905 7102 13336 6792 9587 20962 44806 29953 7857 12201 35893 9358 12604 32681 9355 8121 14769 9178 15583 11210 8080 19483
Last daily increment 48 50 19 46 41 33 117 83 42 183 48 58 43 61 20 48 71 115 27 44 57 61 89 81 264 62 423 49 42 56 13 32 53 35 152 35 126 33 49 93 31 3 90 214 43 84 42 29 62 25 59 26 75 41 51 48 37 43 25 56 21 103 103 19 74 49 49 31 101 107 30 46 34 34 267 31 42 5 12 18 34 437 24 173 122 21 48 141 47 39 31 30 21 125 30 181 123 130 26 139 105 70 100 40 26 81 88 51 42 61 40 41 77 151 46 70 29 55 31 49 67 25 24 65 68 68 37 43 173 152 19 24 27 19 65 54 381 41 35 32 29 72 37 9 64 46 17 45 35 42 22 30 53 41 36 25 52 72 71 20 29 68 86 42 41 71 57 22 45 46 0 49 49 21 40 57 137 55 120 82 67 35 224 154 25 72 55 41 75 139 69 50 10 12 165 82 68 11 34 1 66 53 22 37 130 119 55 32 79 28 11 15 12 33 43 72 36 92 17 132 63 53 46 62 41 44 246 55 17 68 67 22 58 88 127 59 132 41 18 58 1 41 58 23 33 109 173 99 23 34 61 68 56 21 47 132 37 27 50 18 67 31 19 23 118 62 23 60 30 14 17 81 112 35 39 87 73 25 30 226 7 139 58 115 63 55 30 38 47 118 40 25 57 22 216 44 36 38 40 63 42 71 79 39 63 24 66 54 60 41 31 41 120 81 104 56 55 89 22 75 39 31 87 95 23 25 116 75 33 33 29 46 19 39 23 71 16 35 84 81 32 27 11 34 104 111 84 80 84 46 33 53 36 30 39 59 40 97 46 49 69 44 36 47 97 163 46 60 119 24 62 120 22 34 13 43 59 21 34 48
Last week 396 414 158 269 375 253 652 547 390 1282 376 495 316 595 173 439 759 709 218 355 444 349 783 539 1834 507 3050 377 291 501 109 263 533 171 1398 312 1381 319 335 764 147 362 1073 1813 313 721 343 246 343 193 429 373 761 361 495 348 371 758 203 460 176 702 763 167 539 359 419 382 913 899 225 488 259 280 2125 258 421 29 295 156 219 4316 255 1352 984 167 330 1086 427 307 243 222 338 911 179 1272 1052 1219 243 935 808 450 857 304 236 819 579 362 383 455 334 312 540 1186 323 563 311 446 199 384 597 281 206 403 720 472 329 252 1091 1101 385 210 246 232 550 415 2986 441 275 298 257 578 426 279 567 345 192 468 359 522 255 442 495 272 264 313 399 507 656 244 283 561 706 383 342 636 497 155 337 283 104 520 557 323 298 364 1209 436 1248 501 831 326 2383 1307 250 676 322 357 529 1447 557 371 128 190 1550 575 542 147 378 91 518 456 233 402 819 727 428 261 745 234 228 88 502 425 383 736 301 751 411 886 499 513 237 550 361 346 1486 502 151 667 556 186 356 643 899 447 1068 418 197 585 13 453 450 229 280 793 1277 758 311 358 492 646 358 205 422 849 771 163 525 135 494 149 139 273 928 413 248 378 234 118 183 775 923 270 353 805 730 256 300 1595 19 1074 403 676 608 356 186 412 303 883 495 208 448 184 1479 315 211 430 349 633 329 436 770 346 742 257 446 489 398 317 271 304 869 478 757 356 444 640 279 491 285 909 685 747 225 219 846 575 261 346 260 580 219 370 312 740 253 371 632 683 349 199 356 358 1005 795 587 823 630 358 243 422 390 219 317 464 384 567 312 274 573 363 411 451 759 1808 391 429 855 262 500 877 226 309 320 280 457 316 227 568
Previous peak date07-2107-2112-2712-2612-2707-2112-2112-26 --12-2112-2112-2712-0712-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1111-0212-2110-0712-2211-0212-2710-1310-13 --2021-01-0710-1511-1311-0212-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2811-0212-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3010-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-21 --11-0212-2212-2812-2512-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-3007-2107-2112-26 --12-2912-2612-2712-2712-2411-0212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-2810-272021-02-2510-0310-1412-2712-0712-2607-2107-2112-27 --12-2412-2907-2112-2412-2111-0907-2112-2607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-06 --07-2112-2312-2712-2107-2112-2512-2512-2510-1710-2912-2607-2112-2112-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0412-2212-2712-2812-2112-2212-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2712-2212-2907-2112-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0107-2112-2806-1112-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2210-2709-2912-2912-3011-0211-0212-2112-2712-2711-0212-2109-2812-2712-2212-2112-3111-022021-01-0212-22 --12-30 --12-2112-2112-2112-2212-2112-2612-3107-2112-2212-2712-0607-2112-0712-2812-2911-0211-0312-2712-0612-27 --12-1310-1410-2612-2612-2107-2111-0112-2112-3011-0412-2111-0312-2712-212021-01-0111-0212-2911-0210-22 --12-2712-0612-2607-212021-01-0611-0211-0212-2811-0212-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2207-2112-0610-1112-2112-2710-1912-1310-1112-1310-1812-3012-2810-1312-252021-01-262021-01-0211-0212-2910-3107-2112-2112-2812-2912-2211-02 --12-3012-2512-2512-2107-2112-2212-2112-2812-26 --2021-01-0412-2211-0907-2112-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-2712-2207-2112-2812-2711-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2510-182021-01-0212-2612-292021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-2112-2212-2212-28 -- --12-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-20 --07-2111-0212-0707-2112-2212-2812-2210-1612-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-2712-3112-2812-2512-3112-2112-3012-2611-02
Previous peak daily increment 605 360 61 88 97 285 134 82 260 170 110 176 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 128 109 277 233 262 426 1200 75 166 98 58 234 50 355 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 1167 107 508 94 186 62 122 160 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 111 303 292 268 52 197 249 283 59 91 71 65 1221 82 243 35 53 94 334 34 551 288 38 181 598 151 69 189 72 58 164 27 211 248 191 118 322 216 697 536 60 52 370 76 160 106 184 51 231 206 102 163 146 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 457 90 74 110 661 150 125 54 42 127 82 1697 92 56 180 92 451 119 39 377 218 59 201 56 401 172 103 338 103 106 136 120 476 111 159 52 139 442 57 115 452 143 83 239 134 44 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 153 428 107 1522 469 104 457 71 229 102 480 274 200 90 36 2166 92 419 46 298 37 62 153 186 110 213 296 361 79 62 65 191 105 63 2512 85 723 190 212 26 53 137 105 50 969 105 58 123 106 41 56 277 158 121 1362 90 68 257 125 48 108 227 154 135 347 42 156 174 623 105 81 176 445 286 41 188 39 194 138 65 96 198 80 85 67 174 36 25 417 448 80 147 87 407 65 131 557 209 244 167 97 218 110 102 69 181 42 86 73 839 94 79 108 80 66 102 115 248 293 451 131 156 222 94 55 112 144 189 138 197 67 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 172 56 109 44 140 349 90 44 138 123 360 138 50 559 151 90 110 120 84 245 329 449 390 227 260 138 117 160 65 154 87 296 165 42 369 67 115 217 319 264 83 148 431 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 573
Low between peaks 0 -1 -3 -2 -7 0 3 13 -11 2 -7 -17 -8 3 -2 9 -1 -30 -13 2 -14 -12 9 3 307 -1 55 -9 -14 17 2 31 -8 31 -4 -5 -39 -11 1 -1 -18 -8 -8 -10 -16 -1 3 3 0 8 2 -17 -6 -64 5 -9 2 -2 -1 -7 -11 -3 -9 -14 -3 -6 0 4 -11 -4 -9 1 1 2 -1 -13 -19 -5 -8 -4 -11 -5 1 -7 0 53 -3 1 -14 -4 -2 -3 -6 -3 -3 -6 -12 -2 -5 2 -1 -5 1 -17 -6 -5 0 -4 -80 -12 1 0 -4 0 0 -5 1 -7 -5 -8 -7 2 -7 -13 -8 -2 -8 -25 -21 -27 -25 -2 -5 -12 -2 -17 5 2 -1 -8 -12 -19 -1 2 -1 -27 1 -1 12 -5 3 -2 -7 0 -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -12 -3 27 20 2 -5 40 120 1 -18 0 -9 2 58 7 -22 0 0 27 -45 -13 2 -3 -10 6 5 -15 0 -3 0 0 1 -10 1 15 -14 4 2 8 -12 -3 -7 -6 -7 5 -6 -16 5 1 -7 -3 -7 -4 6 -5 1 6 1 3 1 5 -74 37 0 -8 1 -1 -51 -13 -2 1 -20 -4 0 3 0 1 -6 0 -2 0 1 -14 -6 -8 2 -1 -4 -4 -45 3 -6 23 -28 4 -3 -10 -2 -3 -4 -12 -23 3 -5 -4 -7 -11 -5 -1 2 -10 2 -2 -3 -16 -2 -6 -39 -13 -2 1 -1 -4 4 -5 -7 1 -4 -13 -40 3 -9 7 -8 -5 -12 -3 -7 -4 -9 2 -6 -11 -1 5 0 -18 -3 1 -18 16 -9 -22 -4 -6 -4 4 -12 -13 -5 1 -7 -2 1 -2 -1 -12 7 6 -36 -9 -5 -68 0 -11 -19 -2 -6 2 1 0 -3 -6 -48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-08-22 to 2021-08-28

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-08-21 12623 9866 4762 8220 12220 6351 12889 10068 3193 21650 12493 14035 12342 16504 5516 28289 40631 30636 6470 22144 12977 12519 15031 19695 36795 28830 142294 10666 26418 16648 6879 8375 40130 6983 39842 10653 70221 14199 8976 37540 9186 15003 26352 52623 8601 33104 9582 11937 11077 14430 25666 15541 23198 9746 21262 9833 13698 31802 11628 12729 10661 12193 24699 2555 18536 17695 7525 12624 32726 32834 8932 8253 6795 12915 37342 3964 16664 507 6696 5801 7676 32883 4495 62282 36027 4633 11374 41930 13058 12384 13605 6415 7258 27401 4814 20158 37397 20246 9986 36473 7114 13683 41321 9770 4933 8363 8780 7407 13046 10327 6922 7244 8345 29916 12957 12660 8809 9850 4170 10969 36344 16195 7751 11384 10307 10556 7926 7388 10122 21863 13119 10256 4976 8057 23762 12853 65358 11067 5984 13229 8308 30065 10804 5137 30487 16044 6951 19974 7998 28138 10603 12759 27168 6764 13524 8555 10015 33138 10604 11300 8227 7708 35014 9566 8946 32124 11911 12195 5264 10011 3094 9440 22791 13431 8764 10134 30933 16883 50190 23660 36740 14567 99877 49069 7241 30758 9679 10745 11611 69154 27110 17154 5214 4393 81179 12271 32896 4156 5994 7375 21941 4554 4977 11062 17573 11426 20390 7123 27859 6552 5463 2675 13599 10064 11610 39816 12252 44199 13800 18325 9944 4865 9095 18002 9898 8579 33491 14561 4324 16485 22871 6839 9632 24004 29712 11320 44196 13208 6724 34688 186 14872 5029 13372 8669 21515 20161 21049 6198 20062 16000 39968 16782 8484 13613 16870 24874 7216 16269 4331 31595 8573 9863 6623 30713 10203 7673 11749 9997 2590 3057 37173 45054 8793 5177 8949 34432 8138 10010 65765 421 22348 19065 24005 9067 7100 6744 9491 10262 26297 4041 7112 10870 7111 28407 8282 7201 9274 12863 9092 11594 20321 23687 19539 33128 10070 12443 24018 12018 8571 8430 5533 33089 25206 28752 8382 6942 36210 7573 21630 16333 21198 17949 28181 8771 7689 7166 16439 13088 8855 5549 13964 9175 21764 11378 9773 7908 2662 38994 26982 8450 7323 9251 8195 41461 34035 32353 34443 26184 12101 10905 8692 11087 6987 11657 9933 2363 7647 12905 7102 13336 6792 9587 20962 44806 29953 7857 12201 35893 9358 12604 32681 9355 8121 14769 9178 15583 11210 8080 19483
2021-08-22 12620 9930 4787 8258 12270 6387 12980 10150 3199 21850 12550 14110 12350 16550 5538 28360 40810 30740 6502 22200 13040 12580 15100 19770 36900 28910 142800 10730 26440 16730 6885 8416 40210 7013 40120 10700 70440 14250 9002 37680 9212 15020 26540 52770 8648 33210 9629 11980 11100 14470 25760 15580 23280 9810 21340 9890 13730 31910 11660 12810 10690 12290 24810 2578 18620 17750 7565 12680 32830 32910 8966 8309 6833 12960 37710 4002 16730 508 6738 5829 7682 33510 4531 62380 36180 4654 11430 42090 13120 12410 13650 6450 7303 27500 4840 20200 37550 20360 10030 36550 7118 13750 41460 9810 4973 8453 8865 7460 13110 10400 6971 7289 8424 30100 12980 12670 8809 9910 4203 11020 36440 16240 7780 11450 10350 10630 7973 7426 10310 22020 13140 10290 5012 8089 23840 12910 65720 11130 6027 13270 8350 30160 10860 5199 30590 16100 6977 20050 8045 28230 10640 12820 27250 6801 13560 8594 10080 33220 10600 11340 8242 7791 35120 9625 8998 32210 11980 12230 5311 10020 3113 9520 22880 13480 8815 10150 31140 16950 50380 23740 36810 14610 100400 49190 7276 30880 9724 10780 11690 69420 27200 17190 5234 4415 81440 12320 32990 4174 6040 7386 22020 4554 5009 11120 17690 11550 20470 7159 27970 6583 5493 2686 13660 10110 11670 39930 12300 44330 13820 18440 10020 4934 9134 18130 9950 8637 33710 14640 4333 16580 22950 6865 9643 24110 29740 11390 44350 13270 6755 34820 188 14890 5107 13390 8711 21620 20160 21080 6258 20120 16070 40070 16840 8517 13670 17000 24900 7240 16280 4351 31680 8583 9890 6650 30860 10260 7695 11810 10040 2605 3082 37320 45190 8833 5227 8949 34530 8175 10050 65960 421 22470 19130 24100 9136 7152 6771 9556 10310 26430 4093 7142 10940 7140 28620 8330 7234 9335 12920 9184 11620 20380 23820 19600 33250 10110 12510 24120 12100 8613 8471 5576 33220 25290 28860 8432 6942 36300 7590 21710 16370 21260 18060 28220 8804 7720 7171 16520 13110 8885 5571 14040 9208 21810 11400 9850 7940 2667 39110 27080 8450 7354 9275 8221 41650 34130 32450 34580 26250 12160 10940 8757 11120 7019 11710 9930 2369 7730 12920 7143 13390 6847 9626 21040 44900 30150 7913 12260 35980 9387 12650 32710 9387 8159 14790 9218 15650 11260 8115 19570
2021-08-23 12630 10000 4819 8273 12310 6418 13020 10250 3238 22040 12590 14180 12400 16550 5547 28440 40970 30870 6524 22270 13100 12640 15180 19830 37110 29020 143400 10780 26480 16830 6885 8464 40290 7047 40420 10730 70720 14280 9045 37840 9244 15050 26770 53060 8689 33330 9651 12030 11160 14510 25860 15610 23410 9900 21440 9950 13770 32020 11670 12870 10710 12380 24870 2595 18700 17790 7621 12720 32970 33050 8996 8377 6875 12990 37970 4041 16800 508 6772 5865 7718 34240 4576 62600 36330 4663 11480 42250 13150 12470 13710 6486 7334 27660 4861 20290 37700 20560 10070 36700 7238 13790 41620 9840 5009 8551 8935 7519 13200 10460 7005 7334 8498 30240 13030 12730 8825 9960 4235 11070 36560 16300 7799 11490 10370 10690 8006 7478 10490 22180 13140 10320 5055 8123 23900 12960 66060 11190 6076 13320 8401 30300 10900 5293 30750 16150 7003 20180 8076 28360 10680 12880 27380 6820 13590 8643 10140 33340 10610 11400 8279 7884 35230 9696 9052 32340 12030 12260 5352 10060 3139 9620 23010 13540 8875 10190 31390 17010 50620 23820 36890 14660 100900 49400 7301 31050 9736 10820 11770 69710 27290 17240 5251 4419 81780 12400 33140 4177 6081 7394 22120 4627 5025 11170 17770 11670 20580 7195 28070 6596 5534 2691 13730 10180 11730 40110 12330 44520 13820 18480 10100 4999 9181 18250 9990 8723 33900 14750 4356 16690 23040 6882 9684 24220 29860 11500 44560 13310 6792 34940 188 14950 5211 13420 8755 21760 20250 21170 6349 20200 16140 40190 16920 8558 13720 17110 24980 7254 16340 4367 31780 8605 9910 6688 31000 10330 7697 11870 10080 2612 3113 37500 45350 8876 5282 8992 34660 8217 10070 66260 421 22630 19160 24220 9207 7197 6785 9623 10350 26530 4144 7167 10990 7163 28800 8394 7258 9409 12970 9290 11660 20420 23970 19670 33430 10140 12540 24240 12180 8642 8504 5619 33340 25390 28930 8457 6983 36400 7590 21790 16390 21320 18180 28310 8834 7749 7275 16540 13160 8895 5610 14120 9248 21880 11440 9880 7973 2709 39310 27220 8484 7390 9301 8221 41860 34260 32560 34780 26360 12200 10980 8829 11120 7050 11760 9950 2411 7794 12970 7180 13470 6899 9699 21140 45010 30370 7975 12300 36120 9410 12660 32810 9422 8218 14800 9258 15700 11310 8152 19680
2021-08-24 12650 10070 4847 8297 12350 6451 13080 10340 3296 22230 12640 14260 12450 16560 5563 28520 41110 30990 6550 22330 13150 12700 15300 19890 37390 29110 143900 10840 26520 16920 6885 8508 40380 7080 40730 10770 70970 14320 9100 37990 9272 15070 26990 53350 8732 33440 9684 12070 11200 14550 25930 15650 23540 9970 21530 10000 13830 32150 11690 12930 10740 12460 24950 2614 18780 17840 7702 12770 33110 33170 9027 8446 6914 13030 38280 4077 16870 508 6810 5897 7749 34950 4618 62810 36480 4677 11540 42410 13200 12520 13760 6521 7372 27800 4884 20420 37850 20780 10110 36850 7353 13850 41770 9880 5046 8645 9009 7576 13270 10520 7044 7379 8570 30400 13070 12800 8857 10020 4266 11120 36660 16350 7822 11540 10400 10750 8046 7507 10680 22360 13140 10360 5100 8156 23970 13010 66410 11250 6121 13360 8447 30410 10940 5374 30880 16210 7029 20290 8115 28470 10710 12940 27480 6846 13630 8682 10200 33440 10650 11450 8333 7972 35340 9761 9104 32430 12080 12290 5395 10090 3163 9700 23110 13600 8930 10240 31620 17080 50840 23890 36960 14720 101400 49620 7330 31200 9762 10850 11840 69970 27380 17320 5269 4431 82040 12480 33260 4186 6134 7404 22200 4695 5048 11230 17860 11780 20670 7230 28180 6617 5570 2700 13800 10280 11780 40250 12370 44690 13820 18560 10180 5065 9223 18360 10040 8795 34090 14850 4379 16790 23140 6903 9728 24330 29990 11590 44740 13360 6826 35060 189 15040 5306 13450 8798 21890 20390 21280 6424 20260 16210 40310 16990 8595 13770 17220 25090 7272 16430 4385 31870 8625 9930 6723 31140 10390 7708 11920 10120 2622 3141 37650 45510 8917 5333 9023 34780 8256 10100 66500 421 22800 19210 24340 9272 7242 6804 9689 10390 26650 4194 7196 11040 7188 29020 8450 7285 9478 13020 9390 11710 20470 24120 19740 33580 10170 12590 24320 12260 8679 8541 5660 33470 25480 29010 8492 7051 36520 7590 21870 16410 21390 18290 28420 8866 7778 7377 16590 13200 8916 5654 14210 9284 21930 11480 9930 8006 2750 39460 27320 8543 7423 9328 8221 42040 34380 32670 34950 26460 12250 11020 8899 11140 7080 11800 10000 2450 7871 13010 7217 13560 6952 9757 21230 45140 30630 8034 12350 36260 9437 12680 32900 9457 8267 14810 9297 15760 11350 8187 19770
2021-08-25 12680 10130 4872 8326 12400 6483 13150 10420 3337 22430 12690 14330 12500 16590 5580 28600 41240 31100 6577 22400 13210 12750 15400 19960 37660 29200 144400 10900 26560 17000 6886 8551 40470 7105 41000 10810 71200 14360 9155 38120 9298 15090 27200 53690 8776 33540 9722 12110 11250 14580 26000 15680 23670 10040 21610 10060 13890 32250 11710 13000 10760 12540 25040 2635 18860 17890 7775 12820 33260 33330 9058 8506 6951 13070 38580 4112 16930 508 6849 5926 7790 35630 4657 63010 36630 4694 11590 42570 13250 12560 13800 6555 7414 27940 4908 20560 38000 20990 10150 37000 7462 13900 41910 9910 5083 8738 9082 7630 13340 10580 7086 7424 8641 30560 13120 12890 8875 10070 4297 11170 36760 16400 7848 11600 10430 10810 8088 7537 10850 22520 13150 10390 5137 8189 24040 13060 66750 11320 6164 13400 8490 30520 10990 5445 30990 16260 7055 20380 8157 28560 10750 13000 27580 6877 13670 8719 10250 33540 10690 11500 8371 8056 35450 9822 9155 32540 12140 12320 5438 10130 3184 9780 23210 13650 8983 10290 31840 17140 51050 23970 37040 14770 101900 49840 7362 31330 9794 10880 11920 70230 27470 17380 5288 4448 82330 12570 33370 4199 6178 7414 22280 4760 5075 11280 17960 11890 20760 7264 28290 6643 5604 2709 13860 10350 11840 40380 12410 44830 13820 18650 10260 5130 9261 18470 10090 8860 34300 14940 4403 16880 23230 6925 9777 24450 30110 11670 44920 13410 6858 35170 191 15110 5393 13490 8839 22030 20530 21390 6487 20320 16280 40410 17050 8630 13830 17340 25160 7293 16510 4403 31960 8651 9950 6762 31280 10450 7723 11980 10160 2633 3168 37810 45670 8956 5381 9049 34910 8294 10130 66710 421 22980 19260 24450 9354 7287 6826 9754 10430 26770 4245 7224 11100 7214 29240 8502 7314 9544 13070 9486 11760 20520 24270 19800 33710 10210 12640 24410 12330 8718 8579 5699 33590 25560 29110 8532 7115 36630 7591 21950 16440 21480 18400 28510 8910 7807 7477 16650 13250 8942 5701 14290 9318 22000 11540 9990 8039 2791 39600 27420 8596 7454 9357 8236 42230 34510 32760 35110 26570 12300 11060 8965 11160 7111 11850 10040 2490 7942 13060 7255 13640 7005 9816 21310 45260 30880 8092 12400 36400 9466 12710 33000 9490 8316 14830 9336 15820 11400 8221 19870
2021-08-26 12700 10170 4898 8356 12450 6516 13220 10490 3391 22620 12750 14410 12540 16620 5599 28670 41370 31210 6606 22450 13270 12810 15500 20030 37940 29280 144900 10960 26600 17090 6890 8592 40560 7137 41240 10860 71430 14410 9213 38260 9324 15120 27370 53940 8820 33650 9761 12160 11300 14620 26090 15730 23810 10110 21700 10110 13940 32380 11740 13070 10790 12630 25130 2656 18940 17940 7831 12870 33400 33470 9090 8556 6989 13110 38880 4146 16990 510 6889 5955 7815 36320 4695 63200 36780 4712 11640 42730 13300 12600 13850 6589 7457 28080 4932 20720 38150 21180 10190 37110 7571 13950 42050 9950 5121 8832 9155 7684 13400 10650 7128 7469 8711 30730 13170 12970 8905 10130 4329 11220 36860 16450 7874 11660 10460 10870 8131 7564 11000 22670 13170 10430 5172 8221 24110 13110 67100 11380 6206 13450 8533 30620 11050 5516 31100 16310 7082 20470 8201 28660 10790 13070 27670 6908 13700 8760 10310 33630 10750 11540 8407 8141 35550 9883 9206 32640 12210 12340 5480 10180 3205 9870 23310 13700 9035 10330 32050 17200 51260 24050 37110 14830 102300 50030 7394 31460 9828 10920 12000 70480 27560 17430 5307 4466 82600 12660 33470 4213 6220 7425 22370 4825 5102 11340 18070 11990 20840 7298 28390 6669 5637 2719 13930 10400 11890 40510 12450 44970 13820 18740 10330 5194 9299 18550 10140 8923 34490 15030 4427 16980 23320 6948 9827 24540 30240 11750 45090 13460 6890 35270 192 15180 5480 13530 8880 22180 20650 21500 6546 20380 16350 40520 17110 8664 13890 17450 25260 7313 16580 4421 32040 8669 9980 6791 31420 10510 7740 12030 10200 2645 3194 37930 45820 8996 5429 9120 35020 8332 10170 66920 421 23140 19310 24560 9431 7332 6849 9819 10480 26890 4297 7253 11160 7241 29440 8552 7344 9609 13120 9582 11800 20570 24390 19850 33850 10240 12700 24500 12400 8758 8618 5737 33720 25640 29200 8574 7175 36720 7602 22030 16480 21590 18510 28630 8942 7837 7578 16720 13290 8969 5741 14360 9352 22060 11580 10060 8071 2833 39730 27520 8638 7484 9385 8255 42400 34640 32860 35260 26660 12360 11100 9032 11190 7142 11900 10070 2530 8018 13110 7293 13720 7058 9880 21390 45380 31090 8149 12450 36550 9496 12750 33090 9523 8363 14850 9375 15890 11450 8255 19960
2021-08-27 12750 10220 4922 8390 12500 6549 13310 10570 3438 22810 12800 14480 12580 16670 5619 28740 41490 31320 6636 22500 13340 12860 15570 20100 38210 29370 145400 11020 26640 17160 6896 8633 40630 7157 41410 10900 71650 14450 9258 38350 9349 15140 27520 54210 8865 33760 9804 12200 11350 14640 26150 15760 23910 10170 21770 10160 14000 32480 11770 13140 10820 12710 25230 2678 19020 17990 7886 12930 33530 33580 9122 8608 7025 13150 39150 4179 17060 511 6930 5982 7840 37010 4732 63390 36930 4731 11690 42890 13360 12640 13890 6623 7501 28210 4956 20860 38300 21350 10230 37240 7679 14010 42180 9990 5159 8926 9229 7738 13470 10720 7172 7514 8781 30900 13220 13060 8932 10190 4360 11270 36960 16480 7901 11710 10500 10940 8176 7600 11160 22810 13190 10460 5206 8253 24190 13170 67410 11450 6248 13490 8575 30720 11100 5582 31200 16360 7108 20560 8246 28750 10820 13130 27750 6942 13740 8792 10370 33710 10770 11590 8442 8224 35660 9942 9256 32740 12270 12370 5523 10220 3225 9950 23400 13750 9086 10400 32260 17270 51450 24120 37180 14870 102600 50210 7427 31580 9866 10950 12070 70690 27650 17480 5326 4486 82800 12730 33570 4230 6257 7436 22450 4888 5131 11390 18180 12090 20910 7331 28500 6697 5669 2730 13990 10470 11950 40640 12500 45110 13830 18850 10410 5259 9336 18630 10190 8983 34680 15110 4451 17080 23400 6972 9874 24630 30370 11820 45250 13520 6920 35360 193 15230 5565 13560 8921 22290 20760 21630 6601 20430 16420 40620 17170 8697 13940 17560 25340 7336 16650 4440 32110 8689 10000 6828 31560 10570 7760 12080 10230 2657 3220 38030 45940 9035 5475 9148 35130 8369 10200 67110 421 23300 19360 24640 9489 7378 6873 9884 10520 27010 4350 7283 11220 7268 29620 8600 7375 9673 13170 9676 11840 20630 24500 19910 33970 10280 12760 24570 12470 8799 8658 5775 33850 25720 29300 8619 7236 36800 7618 22100 16510 21650 18620 28730 8973 7867 7679 16790 13320 9000 5779 14440 9384 22110 11620 10130 8104 2874 39860 27610 8681 7514 9414 8279 42550 34750 32950 35400 26750 12410 11140 9098 11220 7173 11950 10110 2570 8093 13150 7332 13800 7112 9934 21470 45490 31280 8206 12510 36640 9526 12790 33190 9556 8399 14880 9414 15950 11500 8289 20040
2021-08-28 12800 10260 4946 8424 12550 6582 13390 10640 3485 23010 12850 14560 12620 16710 5639 28810 41560 31420 6666 22540 13400 12910 15660 20170 38440 29450 145700 11080 26670 17240 6902 8674 40680 7185 41570 10940 71860 14490 9303 38440 9374 15170 27620 54400 8910 33860 9849 12240 11400 14670 26200 15800 23980 10230 21850 10220 14030 32540 11790 13190 10840 12790 25330 2700 19110 18040 7927 12980 33620 33680 9154 8659 7062 13190 39390 4212 17120 513 6972 6009 7868 37710 4769 63540 37080 4751 11740 43050 13410 12670 13940 6657 7547 28330 4981 21030 38460 21470 10270 37360 7786 14060 42320 10030 5197 9021 9304 7791 13530 10790 7217 7559 8851 31070 13260 13120 8962 10250 4392 11320 37060 16510 7929 11770 10530 11000 8221 7635 11310 22930 13210 10490 5229 8284 24260 13230 67740 11510 6289 13540 8616 30810 11160 5648 31300 16410 7134 20640 8292 28840 10860 13190 27840 6976 13780 8821 10430 33790 10850 11630 8467 8307 35760 10000 9306 32810 12340 12390 5566 10260 3244 10020 23490 13790 9136 10440 32470 17330 51650 24200 37260 14910 102800 50350 7461 31700 9906 10980 12150 70820 27730 17520 5345 4508 82950 12790 33660 4246 6295 7448 22530 4952 5161 11440 18290 12180 20990 7365 28610 6726 5700 2741 14050 10500 12000 40760 12540 45240 13850 18950 10490 5324 9373 18690 10240 9041 34870 15200 4467 17170 23450 6996 9920 24710 30480 11890 45360 13580 6951 35420 195 15280 5650 13580 8962 22390 20910 21710 6653 20470 16500 40720 17230 8730 14000 17670 25400 7358 16700 4458 32170 8713 10020 6853 31700 10630 7780 12140 10270 2671 3245 38100 46050 9074 5522 9234 35200 8407 10240 67300 422 23420 19420 24740 9558 7424 6898 9949 10570 27140 4403 7313 11290 7296 29800 8647 7406 9736 13220 9769 11880 20680 24580 19970 34100 10310 12820 24610 12550 8842 8698 5813 33970 25790 29400 8665 7279 36880 7634 22180 16550 21710 18730 28810 8996 7897 7780 16860 13350 9031 5804 14520 9417 22150 11640 10200 8136 2916 39970 27680 8711 7543 9443 8304 42650 34850 33040 35540 26820 12460 11170 9163 11250 7204 12000 10160 2611 8163 13190 7371 13860 7165 9967 21540 45570 31460 8262 12570 36750 9556 12840 33290 9588 8431 14900 9453 16020 11550 8322 20130

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-08-22 to 2021-08-28

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-08-21 12623 9866 4762 8220 12220 6351 12889 10068 3193 21650 12493 14035 12342 16504 5516 28289 40631 30636 6470 22144 12977 12519 15031 19695 36795 28830 142294 10666 26418 16648 6879 8375 40130 6983 39842 10653 70221 14199 8976 37540 9186 15003 26352 52623 8601 33104 9582 11937 11077 14430 25666 15541 23198 9746 21262 9833 13698 31802 11628 12729 10661 12193 24699 2555 18536 17695 7525 12624 32726 32834 8932 8253 6795 12915 37342 3964 16664 507 6696 5801 7676 32883 4495 62282 36027 4633 11374 41930 13058 12384 13605 6415 7258 27401 4814 20158 37397 20246 9986 36473 7114 13683 41321 9770 4933 8363 8780 7407 13046 10327 6922 7244 8345 29916 12957 12660 8809 9850 4170 10969 36344 16195 7751 11384 10307 10556 7926 7388 10122 21863 13119 10256 4976 8057 23762 12853 65358 11067 5984 13229 8308 30065 10804 5137 30487 16044 6951 19974 7998 28138 10603 12759 27168 6764 13524 8555 10015 33138 10604 11300 8227 7708 35014 9566 8946 32124 11911 12195 5264 10011 3094 9440 22791 13431 8764 10134 30933 16883 50190 23660 36740 14567 99877 49069 7241 30758 9679 10745 11611 69154 27110 17154 5214 4393 81179 12271 32896 4156 5994 7375 21941 4554 4977 11062 17573 11426 20390 7123 27859 6552 5463 2675 13599 10064 11610 39816 12252 44199 13800 18325 9944 4865 9095 18002 9898 8579 33491 14561 4324 16485 22871 6839 9632 24004 29712 11320 44196 13208 6724 34688 186 14872 5029 13372 8669 21515 20161 21049 6198 20062 16000 39968 16782 8484 13613 16870 24874 7216 16269 4331 31595 8573 9863 6623 30713 10203 7673 11749 9997 2590 3057 37173 45054 8793 5177 8949 34432 8138 10010 65765 421 22348 19065 24005 9067 7100 6744 9491 10262 26297 4041 7112 10870 7111 28407 8282 7201 9274 12863 9092 11594 20321 23687 19539 33128 10070 12443 24018 12018 8571 8430 5533 33089 25206 28752 8382 6942 36210 7573 21630 16333 21198 17949 28181 8771 7689 7166 16439 13088 8855 5549 13964 9175 21764 11378 9773 7908 2662 38994 26982 8450 7323 9251 8195 41461 34035 32353 34443 26184 12101 10905 8692 11087 6987 11657 9933 2363 7647 12905 7102 13336 6792 9587 20962 44806 29953 7857 12201 35893 9358 12604 32681 9355 8121 14769 9178 15583 11210 8080 19483
2021-08-22 12670 9930 4783 8260 12270 6382 12980 10150 3235 21840 12540 14100 12380 16580 5536 28360 40750 30750 6496 22190 13040 12580 15120 19770 37040 28900 142700 10720 26460 16720 6894 8410 40210 7009 40040 10690 70410 14230 9016 37630 9214 15040 26500 52840 8642 33200 9622 11970 11130 14450 25730 15590 23290 9800 21330 9890 13740 31900 11650 12790 10680 12280 24800 2577 18610 17740 7579 12670 32840 32940 8964 8309 6831 12950 37620 3996 16720 511 6730 5827 7700 33430 4525 62440 36180 4652 11420 42090 13110 12420 13650 6447 7294 27530 4838 20330 37540 20390 10030 36600 7215 13740 41430 9810 4970 8471 8855 7453 13110 10390 6968 7285 8405 30080 13000 12730 8836 9910 4199 11020 36430 16230 7780 11450 10390 10620 7973 7429 10300 22000 13160 10280 5009 8081 23830 12910 65760 11130 6028 13270 8347 30150 10850 5170 30580 16090 6976 20040 8038 28210 10640 12820 27230 6800 13560 8594 10070 33220 10670 11340 8260 7780 35110 9621 8985 32210 11980 12220 5301 10050 3104 9520 22870 13470 8813 10180 31130 16950 50350 23740 36830 14600 100200 49210 7273 30860 9724 10790 11690 69350 27190 17200 5231 4416 81370 12350 32980 4173 6041 7382 22020 4613 5005 11120 17690 11530 20450 7154 27960 6580 5488 2687 13650 10120 11660 39920 12300 44310 13860 18440 10010 4930 9136 18080 9940 8633 33700 14640 4337 16560 22950 6863 9672 24100 29810 11390 44340 13260 6754 34780 188 14920 5091 13400 8705 21590 20310 21140 6230 20110 16070 40060 16840 8515 13660 16990 24940 7240 16320 4350 31650 8594 9880 6662 30840 10270 7704 11800 10030 2603 3081 37280 45160 8829 5220 9043 34530 8171 10040 66030 424 22500 19120 24100 9141 7142 6770 9544 10310 26420 4098 7139 10920 7137 28600 8325 7234 9329 12920 9182 11640 20380 23780 19590 33210 10100 12510 24090 12070 8617 8468 5566 33210 25290 28850 8431 6985 36300 7603 21710 16380 21270 18050 28280 8805 7718 7264 16510 13120 8899 5581 14030 9204 21810 11410 9860 7937 2702 39080 27070 8485 7350 9291 8241 41570 34150 32440 34550 26260 12150 10940 8749 11130 7016 11700 9980 2403 7721 12940 7144 13400 6837 9634 21020 44910 30150 7902 12260 35990 9392 12660 32790 9386 8161 14810 9211 15650 11250 8115 19560
2021-08-23 12710 9990 4811 8292 12340 6409 13060 10240 3274 21990 12590 14180 12420 16660 5552 28430 40890 30870 6522 22250 13100 12630 15230 19850 37270 28970 143300 10790 26500 16800 6909 8455 40300 7040 40270 10740 70660 14280 9061 37770 9242 15080 26680 53130 8685 33310 9662 12020 11180 14490 25820 15640 23420 9870 21410 9950 13790 32010 11670 12840 10710 12370 24880 2598 18680 17780 7639 12700 32990 33080 8994 8373 6864 12990 37850 4019 16780 515 6773 5859 7732 34040 4560 62670 36340 4668 11480 42240 13170 12470 13700 6482 7335 27680 4860 20490 37700 20580 10070 36750 7309 13780 41580 9850 5012 8567 8909 7506 13170 10470 7009 7330 8455 30230 13050 12790 8883 9960 4225 11070 36540 16280 7806 11510 10480 10670 8017 7482 10460 22140 13220 10320 5044 8118 23900 12960 66090 11200 6075 13320 8390 30250 10910 5223 30700 16140 7000 20140 8080 28310 10680 12880 27320 6832 13600 8644 10120 33310 10760 11390 8299 7853 35220 9686 9041 32320 12060 12250 5334 10080 3118 9620 22980 13520 8870 10240 31350 17010 50580 23820 36980 14650 100700 49440 7305 31000 9756 10840 11760 69610 27280 17250 5252 4439 81670 12440 33090 4189 6091 7393 22110 4670 5032 11180 17790 11610 20520 7187 28060 6607 5525 2698 13710 10180 11720 40050 12340 44470 13920 18520 10070 5002 9178 18170 9990 8694 33870 14740 4355 16650 23050 6885 9712 24210 29930 11460 44520 13320 6789 34890 189 14980 5157 13420 8744 21730 20460 21220 6273 20170 16150 40160 16900 8551 13730 17090 25030 7263 16380 4369 31750 8613 9910 6701 31000 10340 7740 11850 10070 2615 3113 37420 45300 8874 5258 9165 34650 8210 10070 66330 425 22660 19170 24220 9213 7176 6794 9615 10360 26540 4148 7170 11000 7167 28760 8378 7267 9395 12970 9271 11690 20430 23910 19650 33340 10140 12570 24200 12120 8669 8512 5594 33350 25360 28930 8473 7039 36390 7644 21790 16410 21350 18170 28390 8838 7746 7361 16580 13160 8949 5619 14110 9238 21870 11460 9950 7965 2747 39210 27190 8524 7379 9337 8286 41730 34280 32540 34710 26370 12210 10980 8809 11180 7047 11760 10050 2441 7773 12980 7182 13460 6883 9712 21110 45000 30380 7956 12310 36130 9432 12720 32920 9422 8214 14860 9256 15710 11300 8150 19660
2021-08-24 12760 10050 4835 8327 12390 6437 13140 10320 3320 22150 12650 14260 12470 16740 5570 28510 41010 30990 6546 22310 13170 12690 15370 19920 37540 29040 143800 10850 26550 16880 6923 8501 40390 7070 40520 10780 70890 14310 9113 37900 9268 15120 26860 53410 8732 33420 9704 12060 11220 14520 25890 15700 23540 9940 21490 10000 13840 32130 11700 12880 10730 12460 24970 2619 18750 17820 7712 12740 33130 33210 9025 8437 6897 13030 38080 4045 16850 518 6816 5888 7760 34730 4596 62870 36490 4687 11530 42400 13220 12510 13740 6513 7380 27820 4882 20660 37840 20780 10120 36890 7402 13820 41740 9890 5053 8665 8967 7564 13230 10540 7054 7379 8510 30380 13090 12860 8936 10030 4252 11120 36640 16330 7835 11570 10580 10720 8066 7513 10620 22290 13270 10360 5080 8150 23980 13000 66420 11280 6121 13360 8432 30340 10960 5267 30810 16180 7026 20220 8124 28400 10720 12950 27390 6866 13630 8687 10170 33390 10870 11430 8341 7927 35340 9749 9089 32420 12130 12280 5371 10110 3130 9710 23070 13580 8924 10290 31560 17080 50800 23890 37140 14700 101100 49660 7339 31130 9792 10890 11840 69860 27360 17330 5272 4468 81920 12520 33190 4206 6144 7403 22190 4728 5062 11240 17900 11700 20580 7222 28170 6637 5565 2709 13780 10250 11770 40170 12380 44610 13990 18610 10140 5075 9217 18270 10040 8751 34030 14830 4374 16740 23140 6908 9753 24320 30040 11540 44700 13380 6823 34990 191 15060 5222 13450 8786 21860 20620 21320 6317 20230 16220 40260 16960 8586 13800 17180 25140 7286 16450 4388 31830 8632 9930 6738 31140 10400 7777 11900 10100 2627 3145 37560 45430 8914 5298 9278 34770 8248 10100 66610 426 22820 19230 24330 9286 7213 6819 9683 10400 26670 4200 7200 11060 7196 28950 8425 7298 9461 13020 9361 11730 20480 24050 19710 33470 10170 12630 24280 12170 8723 8556 5628 33480 25430 29020 8520 7113 36480 7687 21880 16450 21440 18290 28510 8871 7774 7486 16650 13190 9000 5659 14190 9272 21930 11500 10060 7995 2792 39310 27280 8577 7406 9386 8332 41880 34400 32640 34870 26470 12260 11020 8868 11230 7076 11810 10120 2479 7833 13010 7221 13520 6930 9770 21180 45110 30640 8012 12370 36270 9472 12790 33030 9456 8263 14910 9294 15780 11360 8185 19750
2021-08-25 12810 10110 4860 8362 12440 6465 13230 10400 3364 22310 12710 14320 12520 16830 5590 28580 41140 31100 6572 22360 13230 12740 15490 19990 37810 29110 144300 10910 26590 16960 6937 8545 40480 7097 40740 10840 71120 14350 9165 38030 9294 15160 27040 53740 8781 33520 9745 12100 11270 14550 25960 15760 23670 10000 21570 10060 13910 32240 11730 12930 10760 12540 25060 2641 18820 17860 7782 12780 33270 33350 9057 8499 6930 13060 38330 4073 16910 522 6861 5915 7796 35440 4632 63070 36650 4706 11580 42560 13280 12550 13790 6545 7427 27970 4906 20840 37990 20970 10160 37040 7502 13880 41880 9930 5093 8761 9029 7624 13280 10610 7099 7427 8569 30540 13150 12940 8980 10090 4279 11180 36740 16380 7864 11640 10680 10770 8114 7549 10780 22440 13330 10400 5114 8183 24060 13050 66800 11350 6167 13410 8472 30430 11010 5315 30910 16220 7051 20300 8170 28480 10760 13020 27460 6901 13670 8730 10220 33480 10980 11480 8381 8003 35450 9816 9142 32530 12210 12310 5409 10140 3143 9800 23170 13630 8978 10350 31750 17150 51000 23970 37300 14740 101600 49900 7375 31250 9830 10930 11910 70110 27440 17390 5293 4493 82200 12610 33290 4223 6196 7413 22270 4787 5093 11300 18010 11800 20650 7256 28280 6667 5601 2720 13840 10310 11820 40290 12430 44750 14050 18700 10200 5147 9255 18360 10090 8807 34220 14920 4396 16830 23230 6931 9797 24430 30160 11610 44870 13440 6857 35100 193 15130 5287 13480 8824 21980 20780 21420 6357 20290 16300 40350 17010 8620 13860 17270 25230 7311 16520 4407 31910 8653 9950 6779 31290 10470 7814 11950 10140 2640 3176 37700 45560 8952 5341 9389 34890 8286 10140 66880 428 22990 19280 24440 9368 7252 6845 9753 10450 26790 4252 7230 11130 7226 29140 8481 7330 9526 13070 9451 11780 20530 24190 19770 33590 10200 12690 24370 12220 8777 8599 5662 33610 25500 29110 8566 7176 36580 7726 21960 16490 21540 18400 28610 8911 7803 7599 16730 13230 9052 5701 14270 9306 21990 11560 10150 8025 2837 39400 27360 8628 7432 9435 8381 42030 34520 32730 35020 26570 12310 11050 8928 11290 7108 11860 10190 2517 7891 13050 7260 13600 6982 9826 21260 45200 30890 8065 12420 36420 9511 12860 33150 9490 8311 14960 9332 15840 11410 8219 19850
2021-08-26 12850 10150 4886 8399 12490 6496 13320 10480 3408 22480 12760 14400 12560 16910 5611 28660 41260 31210 6598 22410 13300 12790 15590 20060 38090 29170 144800 10970 26640 17040 6951 8588 40570 7128 40970 10880 71350 14390 9220 38160 9318 15210 27220 54010 8821 33630 9782 12150 11320 14580 26040 15810 23790 10060 21640 10120 13950 32350 11760 12990 10780 12620 25160 2663 18890 17890 7843 12820 33410 33480 9089 8557 6962 13100 38570 4100 16980 526 6908 5947 7822 36000 4669 63250 36810 4726 11640 42730 13340 12590 13840 6577 7475 28110 4928 21020 38130 21160 10200 37170 7598 13920 42030 9970 5134 8857 9092 7671 13340 10690 7145 7463 8625 30700 13190 13020 9026 10160 4307 11230 36840 16430 7888 11700 10780 10830 8165 7591 10930 22580 13390 10430 5146 8214 24140 13100 67190 11420 6211 13450 8511 30520 11070 5357 31010 16260 7078 20390 8216 28570 10800 13090 27530 6937 13710 8774 10280 33550 11080 11520 8420 8079 35560 9879 9192 32630 12280 12330 5445 10170 3155 9890 23270 13680 9031 10390 31950 17210 51210 24050 37430 14790 102000 50100 7410 31380 9869 10980 11990 70360 27520 17450 5314 4517 82470 12700 33390 4241 6248 7423 22350 4846 5125 11360 18120 11870 20710 7289 28390 6699 5634 2731 13900 10380 11870 40400 12470 44890 14120 18800 10260 5220 9292 18430 10140 8862 34390 15010 4417 16920 23310 6955 9841 24530 30270 11670 45040 13500 6890 35200 194 15200 5353 13510 8860 22120 20950 21510 6398 20350 16370 40450 17070 8654 13920 17350 25330 7335 16580 4427 32000 8672 9970 6807 31440 10540 7849 12000 10180 2652 3203 37820 45680 8996 5383 9506 35000 8325 10170 67140 429 23150 19330 24550 9449 7290 6870 9826 10500 26910 4305 7261 11200 7257 29310 8528 7363 9591 13120 9543 11820 20590 24310 19820 33720 10230 12760 24460 12270 8829 8643 5693 33740 25570 29190 8612 7241 36670 7770 22040 16520 21640 18520 28720 8944 7833 7686 16810 13270 9105 5740 14340 9340 22050 11600 10240 8053 2878 39490 27440 8663 7462 9484 8425 42180 34650 32830 35170 26670 12360 11090 8988 11340 7138 11910 10240 2555 7950 13080 7300 13660 7020 9896 21350 45290 31140 8113 12480 36570 9549 12930 33250 9524 8358 15010 9370 15900 11460 8253 19940
2021-08-27 12900 10200 4910 8436 12540 6523 13400 10560 3449 22640 12810 14460 12600 17000 5632 28740 41390 31320 6624 22470 13370 12850 15680 20140 38330 29230 145300 11040 26670 17120 6965 8627 40650 7156 41170 10930 71580 14420 9267 38280 9343 15250 27380 54260 8860 33740 9814 12190 11360 14610 26110 15870 23900 10130 21720 10180 14010 32460 11790 13040 10800 12690 25250 2686 18950 17930 7901 12850 33540 33610 9122 8621 6995 13140 38760 4123 17040 529 6953 5976 7848 36670 4706 63430 36970 4747 11700 42890 13400 12630 13880 6609 7525 28250 4950 21190 38260 21340 10240 37300 7683 13970 42170 10010 5175 8949 9149 7720 13390 10770 7193 7503 8675 30850 13240 13090 9066 10220 4335 11290 36940 16470 7911 11760 10860 10870 8210 7626 11090 22700 13450 10470 5179 8244 24210 13150 67420 11490 6256 13500 8551 30610 11120 5401 31110 16300 7104 20470 8263 28650 10840 13160 27600 6972 13750 8817 10320 33630 11150 11570 8459 8147 35660 9940 9238 32720 12350 12360 5478 10200 3168 9980 23360 13720 9084 10450 32140 17280 51410 24120 37580 14820 102400 50270 7447 31510 9910 11030 12060 70590 27600 17500 5335 4538 82690 12790 33480 4260 6300 7433 22440 4906 5158 11420 18230 11950 20780 7319 28500 6731 5664 2744 13960 10440 11910 40520 12520 45030 14180 18900 10320 5294 9327 18520 10190 8917 34540 15100 4435 17010 23400 6979 9881 24630 30380 11740 45210 13550 6923 35300 196 15250 5420 13530 8893 22250 21120 21610 6436 20410 16450 40540 17120 8687 13980 17450 25420 7360 16630 4447 32070 8691 9990 6837 31570 10610 7885 12050 10210 2667 3232 37940 45780 9039 5420 9607 35110 8363 10210 67400 430 23320 19380 24650 9521 7325 6897 9897 10540 27040 4360 7292 11270 7287 29430 8572 7396 9655 13170 9633 11850 20640 24430 19880 33830 10270 12820 24540 12320 8883 8687 5721 33870 25640 29270 8659 7300 36750 7811 22120 16560 21730 18630 28810 8973 7862 7748 16880 13300 9158 5778 14410 9374 22100 11640 10330 8080 2918 39590 27510 8700 7487 9536 8472 42310 34770 32920 35330 26760 12410 11120 9049 11390 7168 11960 10300 2594 8003 13110 7340 13720 7070 9945 21420 45370 31370 8159 12540 36670 9587 13000 33350 9558 8402 15060 9400 15970 11510 8287 20040
2021-08-28 12930 10250 4932 8473 12590 6549 13490 10630 3490 22790 12860 14530 12640 17080 5653 28800 41480 31440 6647 22520 13430 12900 15760 20210 38520 29290 145700 11100 26700 17200 6980 8664 40720 7182 41360 10970 71780 14450 9314 38390 9368 15290 27530 54460 8906 33850 9850 12230 11400 14640 26180 15920 24000 10190 21790 10230 14050 32550 11810 13080 10820 12770 25350 2709 19020 17960 7953 12890 33660 33720 9155 8682 7028 13180 38990 4148 17100 533 6995 6003 7873 37290 4743 63570 37110 4768 11740 43050 13450 12660 13930 6639 7574 28390 4973 21380 38370 21510 10290 37420 7774 14010 42290 10040 5215 9035 9192 7766 13440 10840 7231 7541 8723 31000 13280 13150 9110 10280 4364 11340 37040 16510 7934 11820 10960 10920 8255 7665 11250 22830 13510 10510 5204 8270 24280 13200 67660 11550 6301 13540 8590 30690 11170 5439 31210 16340 7131 20550 8310 28730 10880 13210 27660 7007 13790 8862 10370 33700 11240 11610 8494 8217 35770 10000 9280 32820 12410 12390 5511 10230 3181 10070 23460 13770 9137 10490 32320 17350 51600 24200 37700 14850 102700 50420 7479 31620 9951 11070 12140 70780 27680 17540 5355 4558 82900 12880 33570 4279 6352 7441 22520 4967 5191 11480 18350 12020 20830 7346 28610 6763 5692 2756 14020 10500 11950 40640 12560 45160 14230 19010 10380 5368 9364 18600 10240 8972 34680 15190 4448 17090 23470 7004 9923 24720 30480 11810 45360 13610 6956 35390 198 15310 5488 13550 8925 22340 21290 21690 6470 20460 16520 40630 17170 8721 14040 17550 25490 7385 16660 4466 32140 8709 10010 6866 31710 10670 7919 12100 10250 2678 3259 38040 45870 9074 5460 9723 35210 8402 10250 67660 432 23480 19420 24760 9600 7360 6923 9963 10590 27160 4414 7323 11320 7317 29590 8613 7429 9717 13220 9717 11870 20700 24550 19940 33930 10300 12890 24610 12380 8936 8731 5746 34000 25710 29360 8705 7341 36830 7852 22210 16590 21810 18740 28910 9003 7890 7834 16960 13330 9212 5812 14480 9408 22150 11670 10420 8109 2952 39670 27560 8733 7509 9582 8515 42400 34880 33010 35460 26850 12460 11160 9109 11440 7198 12010 10360 2633 8044 13140 7380 13780 7117 9982 21490 45420 31610 8200 12590 36770 9620 13060 33430 9586 8445 15120 9434 16030 11560 8321 20130

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.