COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-08-31 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-08-31

Slideshow of forecasts 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how we lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-08-31

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-08-18 --2021-07-082021-07-062021-07-062021-06-232021-08-17 -- --12-222021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-082021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-122021-07-0712-292021-07-0712-272021-07-082021-08-202021-07-072021-05-102021-07-062021-01-012021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-182021-07-072021-07-072021-08-182021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-07-072021-07-062021-08-182021-07-072021-07-262021-07-082021-07-072021-06-202021-08-182021-07-072021-07-092021-07-072021-08-172021-07-072021-08-182021-07-072021-07-062021-08-102021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-08-092021-07-072021-07-07 -- --2021-07-072021-07-27 --2021-07-062021-08-172021-08-092021-07-072021-07-022021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-07-082021-07-072021-07-062021-01-022021-07-072021-08-172021-07-072021-08-092021-08-082021-07-072021-08-182021-06-212021-07-0807-212021-07-062021-08-102021-08-182021-07-072021-07-072021-07-07 --2021-07-06 --2021-07-062021-07-072021-08-182021-07-072021-07-072021-08-122021-07-072021-07-092021-07-072021-07-052021-07-062021-08-102021-08-182021-07-082021-08-172021-08-17 --2021-08-162021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-042021-07-06 --2021-07-072021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-182021-07-072021-07-092021-07-072021-07-072021-08-182021-07-092021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-08-162021-08-172021-07-082021-08-092021-07-072021-07-04 --2021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-102021-07-072021-06-232021-08-172021-07-082021-08-202021-08-102021-07-072021-07-102021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-07-0712-272021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-01-032021-07-032021-07-082021-07-072021-07-212021-07-1212-262021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-172021-07-102021-07-052021-07-0712-082021-07-082021-08-092021-07-082021-07-072021-08-13 --2021-07-072021-08-182021-07-072021-07-072021-08-092021-07-042021-08-182021-07-082021-07-062021-07-032021-07-072021-07-062021-08-182021-08-17 --2021-08-092021-07-072021-07-032021-07-082021-07-232021-08-172021-07-052021-07-062021-07-072021-07-042021-07-062021-07-072021-07-082021-07-062021-07-242021-07-072021-07-082021-08-082021-07-072021-06-292021-06-22 --2021-07-072021-06-222021-08-052021-07-072021-01-01 --2021-07-062021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-07 --2021-07-0512-272021-07-082021-07-062021-07-052021-07-072021-07-042021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-082021-07-072021-07-062021-07-06 --2021-08-112021-06-282021-07-062021-07-082021-07-0807-212021-08-172021-08-172021-07-062021-08-102021-08-182021-07-072021-08-052021-07-052021-07-072021-08-092021-07-072021-08-132021-07-06 --2021-07-212021-07-082021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-06-272021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-07 --2021-07-072021-07-062021-07-052021-07-072021-07-082021-07-052021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-182021-07-072021-07-072021-06-222021-07-082021-08-092021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-08-102021-08-172021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-0712-062021-08-102021-07-072021-07-052021-07-082021-07-072021-08-182021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-092021-07-062021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-132021-07-072021-07-072021-08-09 --2021-07-072021-08-18 --2021-08-092021-08-102021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-07-092021-07-072021-06-292021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-08-172021-07-082021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-06-30
Peak daily increment 139 51 115 105 84 101 251 127 93 63 100 57 93 260 276 49 139 152 144 210 103 379 176 1249 72 157 159 35 61 208 42 484 107 478 103 55 176 68 125 218 621 60 258 94 72 97 74 161 105 158 72 159 69 60 169 115 24 101 102 227 37 118 170 64 72 269 243 82 72 69 121 142 14 114 51 712 41 607 376 53 101 229 122 140 92 53 86 246 48 213 400 181 47 269 156 184 189 296 46 132 228 62 122 88 65 295 73 85 61 90 29 82 145 105 58 110 126 166 66 59 181 73 67 56 82 274 123 95 58 63 113 163 69 78 229 78 84 156 56 152 61 113 143 65 146 56 69 151 103 82 73 197 80 84 130 101 71 161 56 29 86 189 84 65 71 247 93 271 311 301 117 707 284 51 213 80 100 85 727 108 120 41 47 442 95 169 40 71 105 124 73 37 101 120 274 104 196 49 38 31 135 94 116 384 105 152 87 150 84 94 256 78 71 624 95 35 203 228 77 96 126 322 88 264 158 35 255 4 131 56 113 144 343 203 104 83 120 297 57 114 58 52 140 67 213 75 69 49 207 81 47 116 70 19 30 253 255 94 122 195 65 96 482 24 170 66 277 93 149 49 72 68 345 84 40 74 68 59 68 77 92 106 75 303 200 152 243 70 131 141 87 77 56 243 339 240 74 69 428 57 145 101 299 151 219 83 60 142 137 116 92 41 91 78 100 105 131 101 61 226 184 59 64 72 79 352 191 157 313 195 111 73 70 84 37 102 88 70 94 46 76 67 138 380 351 60 81 243 59 92 185 99 63 65 76 117 120 74 138
Days since peak 13 54 56 56 69 14 252 55 56 56 55 56 54 54 56 55 56 55 56 55 56 50 55 245 55 247 54 11 55 113 56 242 55 55 55 13 55 55 13 55 55 56 56 55 55 57 55 56 13 55 36 54 55 72 13 55 53 55 14 55 13 55 56 21 54 55 55 56 22 55 55 55 35 56 14 22 55 60 55 55 55 55 55 57 54 55 56 241 55 14 55 22 23 55 13 71 54 406 56 21 13 55 55 55 56 56 55 13 55 55 19 55 53 55 57 56 21 13 54 14 14 15 55 56 56 58 56 55 54 54 55 55 55 13 55 53 55 55 13 53 56 55 55 55 57 15 14 54 22 55 58 55 55 56 52 55 69 14 54 11 21 55 52 54 55 55 54 55 247 55 54 55 240 59 54 55 41 50 248 55 55 55 55 55 14 52 57 55 266 54 22 54 55 18 55 13 55 55 22 58 13 54 56 59 55 56 13 14 22 55 59 54 39 14 57 56 55 58 56 55 54 56 38 55 54 23 55 63 70 55 70 26 55 242 56 55 54 55 54 55 57 247 54 56 57 55 58 54 54 55 55 55 55 55 23 55 56 56 20 64 56 54 54 406 14 14 56 21 13 55 26 57 55 22 55 18 56 41 54 56 55 55 54 65 55 55 55 55 55 55 56 55 55 55 56 57 55 54 57 55 55 55 13 55 55 70 54 22 55 56 55 21 14 55 56 55 55 268 21 55 57 54 55 13 55 56 55 53 56 55 54 55 55 55 49 55 55 22 55 13 22 21 55 55 54 53 55 63 55 55 55 56 55 14 54 55 56 54 62
Last total 13892 11388 4949 8731 12727 7038 13763 10967 4123 23464 13101 14851 12818 17393 5751 29022 41839 32036 6870 22796 13569 13098 16022 20401 39387 29653 146776 11281 26961 17554 7202 8835 41128 7173 41560 11167 72551 14669 9495 38720 9429 15784 27623 55219 9072 34245 10124 12294 11657 14791 26481 16571 24417 10176 21980 10397 14124 33458 12071 13872 10905 13119 25829 2882 19578 18301 8059 13317 34425 34503 9353 8730 7167 13361 42761 4522 17352 576 7427 6127 8212 36796 4846 64697 37719 4883 11862 43447 13762 12943 13994 6773 7922 28794 5070 21945 39233 21790 10378 37996 8379 15123 42752 10809 5247 9175 10565 7947 13596 11071 7858 7605 9736 31780 13517 13451 9268 10499 4371 11488 37301 16665 8007 12057 11004 12079 8514 7936 11622 24945 13800 10650 5321 8424 24781 13531 73822 11606 6402 13663 8756 30916 11358 5849 31366 16727 7307 20694 8547 28912 10947 13525 28108 7185 13977 9075 10692 34090 11378 11742 8777 9407 36298 10216 9436 33247 12774 12480 6482 10524 3389 10115 23466 13864 9380 10777 32898 17490 52187 24592 37945 15233 103780 51044 7602 31733 10144 11220 12524 71535 28108 17766 5409 4654 83432 13132 33772 4400 6541 7888 22631 5059 5315 11650 18598 12492 21174 8094 28949 6829 5818 2927 14848 10643 12242 41038 12963 45246 14696 19648 11326 5369 9528 18816 10431 9087 39417 15368 4581 17524 23893 7135 10226 24900 31100 11879 45848 13846 7063 35661 205 15525 5762 13754 9345 22829 22009 22405 6800 20641 16789 40975 17490 8845 14227 19464 26539 7464 16995 4519 32433 8824 10107 7013 32361 10822 7987 12298 10360 2769 3303 38457 46574 9314 5910 9830 35797 8632 10344 68461 493 23811 19659 25009 9815 8085 7054 10119 10749 27809 4529 7456 11568 7491 32905 8727 7559 9920 13344 9920 12133 21087 24785 20090 34123 10471 13085 24837 12607 9041 8788 6334 34598 26189 30079 8838 7564 37552 7969 22475 16809 23469 19172 29563 9173 7999 7897 17405 13532 9404 5931 14689 9519 22397 11877 10552 8352 3024 39949 28095 8903 7630 9886 8774 43198 35395 33242 35588 27098 12622 11264 9173 11693 7339 12141 10719 2644 9032 13481 7541 15085 7234 10189 21659 46146 32291 8366 12918 37323 9718 13397 34115 9731 8476 15390 9566 16269 11729 8457 20308
Last daily increment 115 180 20 71 53 90 96 98 87 249 69 86 39 120 17 85 99 182 50 89 74 49 123 67 253 80 363 66 44 90 36 49 94 19 174 63 226 64 48 123 27 35 170 284 43 135 69 40 48 42 92 120 115 39 70 72 59 129 65 130 26 92 128 36 150 72 56 106 206 244 67 52 55 56 535 83 51 8 46 29 59 369 38 348 146 28 50 165 93 65 42 38 39 134 29 170 220 186 40 156 105 176 132 105 33 95 160 61 90 76 111 41 161 212 64 97 55 76 30 71 77 35 34 72 61 184 68 47 130 365 55 55 56 32 119 56 760 65 61 44 40 83 71 28 100 86 47 76 72 71 50 88 92 62 53 64 72 88 82 38 72 194 118 75 55 103 82 33 118 64 17 73 51 38 88 55 252 82 214 97 132 77 426 215 51 95 48 52 126 234 86 70 19 38 257 89 107 47 56 47 63 45 30 79 108 128 98 120 109 34 33 35 99 63 72 144 76 88 90 138 149 50 50 87 47 59 625 114 19 133 122 27 60 78 147 51 186 57 27 108 5 72 72 46 69 129 176 131 40 58 103 116 77 45 83 261 152 23 82 20 82 28 39 42 209 56 36 63 44 23 22 133 157 65 80 92 143 66 50 300 9 157 54 101 70 99 37 69 55 155 44 43 66 46 447 54 45 87 62 106 41 99 116 83 95 50 104 72 59 67 52 79 185 130 159 80 65 161 60 90 45 108 170 158 50 41 42 93 46 70 45 60 31 87 68 52 45 24 84 126 49 30 42 79 203 117 93 115 106 61 21 65 85 35 50 130 18 134 60 52 185 61 69 61 135 290 67 119 181 54 127 140 35 34 12 50 93 40 60 87
Last week 759 995 92 331 280 454 465 539 516 1058 355 440 249 522 124 407 642 822 213 377 340 311 567 349 1462 480 2351 339 272 487 196 254 523 94 937 298 1210 269 281 633 136 455 655 1421 283 661 327 191 320 215 464 603 661 237 395 345 221 891 284 685 134 550 608 167 618 343 272 418 976 1025 267 245 218 259 3157 348 366 36 383 168 304 1909 194 1428 892 128 259 818 397 312 228 192 338 761 128 956 1065 858 205 855 712 905 819 659 178 459 1038 309 312 390 593 205 904 1070 296 437 230 370 120 289 498 267 142 403 336 960 327 285 801 1934 346 240 200 189 603 405 5264 296 241 260 257 449 301 376 500 424 218 371 311 390 191 455 541 276 259 278 382 529 419 254 325 1008 740 340 283 609 461 166 760 303 148 333 315 225 357 332 1101 365 1061 505 658 357 2096 1037 194 468 272 280 536 1300 594 321 102 154 1196 444 512 152 295 329 353 262 184 319 540 608 448 612 620 168 188 147 741 334 336 694 428 539 470 749 879 276 238 446 306 268 3583 487 146 578 587 155 336 484 762 314 884 356 183 494 13 324 428 201 373 688 979 675 315 316 425 558 395 216 337 1578 895 132 369 103 430 156 152 226 971 337 188 309 213 103 122 672 832 295 407 438 745 267 184 1558 56 809 312 567 374 635 176 336 268 840 270 168 376 225 2728 266 221 355 284 468 282 452 608 327 556 220 375 439 330 276 184 485 899 562 751 257 381 782 220 441 252 1216 726 771 241 181 364 552 254 319 199 318 203 369 292 384 235 167 532 616 236 167 330 321 990 764 502 571 535 287 200 273 348 189 275 478 144 810 317 231 1048 240 331 372 748 1315 293 421 858 191 495 772 212 193 307 215 378 289 235 469
Previous peak date07-21 --12-2712-2612-2707-2112-2112-26 --10-1212-2112-2712-0712-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1111-0212-2110-0712-2211-0212-2710-1310-1312-072021-01-0710-1511-1311-0212-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2811-0212-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3010-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-2110-2811-0212-2212-2812-2512-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-302021-06-21 --12-26 --12-2812-2612-2712-2112-2411-0212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-2810-272021-02-2509-3010-1412-2712-0712-2607-2107-2112-27 --12-2412-2907-2112-2412-2111-092021-06-1412-26 --10-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-06 --07-2112-2312-2712-222021-06-2112-2512-2512-2510-1710-2912-26 --12-2112-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-2712-2812-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-2212-292021-06-2112-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0107-2112-2806-1112-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2210-2709-2912-2912-3011-0211-0212-2112-2712-2711-0212-2109-2812-2712-2212-2112-3111-022021-01-0212-22 --2021-01-07 --12-2112-2112-2112-2212-2112-2612-3107-2112-2212-2712-0607-2112-0712-2812-2911-0211-0312-2712-0612-27 --12-0810-1410-2612-2612-2107-2111-0112-2112-3011-0412-2111-0312-2712-212021-01-0111-0212-2911-0210-22 --12-2712-0612-2607-212021-01-0611-0211-0212-2811-0212-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-22 --12-0610-1112-2112-2710-1912-1310-1112-1310-1812-3012-2810-1312-252021-01-262021-01-0211-0212-2910-3112-2312-2112-2812-2912-2211-02 --12-3012-2512-2512-2107-2112-2212-2112-2812-26 --2021-01-0412-2211-0910-0412-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-2712-22 --12-2812-2711-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2510-182021-01-0212-2612-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-2112-2212-2212-27 -- --12-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-20 -- --11-0212-07 --12-2212-2812-2210-1612-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-2712-3112-2812-2512-3112-2112-3012-2611-02
Previous peak daily increment 605 61 88 97 285 134 73 86 170 110 176 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 128 109 277 233 262 426 1200 75 166 98 95 58 234 50 355 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 1167 107 508 94 186 62 122 160 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 107 303 41 292 268 52 197 249 283 59 91 71 65 480 243 37 53 94 288 34 551 288 38 181 598 151 69 189 72 58 164 27 204 248 187 118 322 216 697 536 60 52 370 76 160 106 110 51 206 102 163 146 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 457 90 74 94 266 150 125 54 42 127 82 92 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 218 59 201 57 401 172 103 338 103 106 136 120 476 101 159 52 94 442 57 115 452 143 83 239 134 44 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 153 428 107 1522 469 104 457 71 229 102 480 274 200 90 36 2166 92 419 46 298 37 62 153 186 110 213 296 361 79 62 65 191 105 63 2512 85 723 190 212 23 53 137 105 50 969 105 58 123 106 41 56 277 158 121 1362 90 68 257 125 48 108 227 154 135 347 42 156 174 623 105 81 176 286 41 188 39 194 138 65 96 198 80 85 67 174 36 25 417 448 80 87 82 407 65 131 557 209 244 167 97 218 110 102 69 181 42 86 73 398 94 79 108 80 66 102 115 248 293 451 131 156 222 94 55 112 189 138 197 67 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 172 56 109 46 140 349 90 44 138 123 360 138 51 559 151 90 110 120 84 245 329 449 390 227 260 138 117 160 65 154 87 165 42 67 115 217 319 264 83 148 431 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 573
Low between peaks 0 -3 -2 -7 0 3 34 -11 2 -7 -17 -8 3 -2 9 -1 -30 -13 2 -14 -12 9 3 307 -1 55 -9 0 -14 17 2 31 -8 31 -4 -5 -39 -11 1 -1 -18 -8 -8 -10 -16 -1 3 3 0 8 2 -17 -6 -64 5 -9 2 -2 3 -1 0 -7 -11 -11 -3 -9 -14 -3 -6 0 4 -9 1 2 -30 -1 -13 -19 -5 -8 -4 -11 -5 1 -7 0 53 -3 11 1 -28 -14 -4 -48 -3 -6 -3 -7 -3 -6 -12 -2 2 -5 1 -17 -6 -5 0 -4 -80 -12 1 0 -4 0 0 4 1 -7 -5 -8 -7 2 -13 -8 -2 -8 -25 -21 1 -27 -25 -2 -5 1 -12 -2 -17 5 2 -1 -8 -12 -19 -9 -1 2 -27 1 -1 12 -5 3 -2 -7 0 -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -12 -3 27 20 2 -5 40 120 1 -18 0 -9 2 58 7 -22 0 0 27 1 -45 -13 2 -10 -3 -10 6 5 -15 0 -3 0 0 1 -10 1 15 -14 4 2 8 -5 -12 -3 -7 -6 -7 5 -6 -16 5 1 -7 -3 -7 -4 6 -5 1 6 1 3 1 5 -74 37 0 -8 1 -1 -51 -13 1 -20 -4 0 3 0 1 -6 0 -2 0 1 -14 -6 -8 2 -1 -4 -20 -45 3 -6 23 -28 4 -3 -10 -2 -3 -4 -12 -23 3 -5 -4 -11 -5 -1 2 -5 -10 2 -2 -3 -16 -2 -6 -39 -13 -2 1 -4 4 -5 -7 -12 1 -4 -13 -40 3 -9 7 -8 -5 -6 -12 -3 -7 -4 -9 2 -6 -11 -1 5 0 -18 -3 1 -18 16 -9 -22 -4 -6 -4 4 -12 -13 -5 1 -7 1 -4 -1 -12 7 6 -36 -9 -5 -68 0 -11 -19 -2 -6 2 1 0 -3 -6 -48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-01 to 2021-09-07

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-08-31 13892 11388 4949 8731 12727 7038 13763 10967 4123 23464 13101 14851 12818 17393 5751 29022 41839 32036 6870 22796 13569 13098 16022 20401 39387 29653 146776 11281 26961 17554 7202 8835 41128 7173 41560 11167 72551 14669 9495 38720 9429 15784 27623 55219 9072 34245 10124 12294 11657 14791 26481 16571 24417 10176 21980 10397 14124 33458 12071 13872 10905 13119 25829 2882 19578 18301 8059 13317 34425 34503 9353 8730 7167 13361 42761 4522 17352 576 7427 6127 8212 36796 4846 64697 37719 4883 11862 43447 13762 12943 13994 6773 7922 28794 5070 21945 39233 21790 10378 37996 8379 15123 42752 10809 5247 9175 10565 7947 13596 11071 7858 7605 9736 31780 13517 13451 9268 10499 4371 11488 37301 16665 8007 12057 11004 12079 8514 7936 11622 24945 13800 10650 5321 8424 24781 13531 73822 11606 6402 13663 8756 30916 11358 5849 31366 16727 7307 20694 8547 28912 10947 13525 28108 7185 13977 9075 10692 34090 11378 11742 8777 9407 36298 10216 9436 33247 12774 12480 6482 10524 3389 10115 23466 13864 9380 10777 32898 17490 52187 24592 37945 15233 103780 51044 7602 31733 10144 11220 12524 71535 28108 17766 5409 4654 83432 13132 33772 4400 6541 7888 22631 5059 5315 11650 18598 12492 21174 8094 28949 6829 5818 2927 14848 10643 12242 41038 12963 45246 14696 19648 11326 5369 9528 18816 10431 9087 39417 15368 4581 17524 23893 7135 10226 24900 31100 11879 45848 13846 7063 35661 205 15525 5762 13754 9345 22829 22009 22405 6800 20641 16789 40975 17490 8845 14227 19464 26539 7464 16995 4519 32433 8824 10107 7013 32361 10822 7987 12298 10360 2769 3303 38457 46574 9314 5910 9830 35797 8632 10344 68461 493 23811 19659 25009 9815 8085 7054 10119 10749 27809 4529 7456 11568 7491 32905 8727 7559 9920 13344 9920 12133 21087 24785 20090 34123 10471 13085 24837 12607 9041 8788 6334 34598 26189 30079 8838 7564 37552 7969 22475 16809 23469 19172 29563 9173 7999 7897 17405 13532 9404 5931 14689 9519 22397 11877 10552 8352 3024 39949 28095 8903 7630 9886 8774 43198 35395 33242 35588 27098 12622 11264 9173 11693 7339 12141 10719 2644 9032 13481 7541 15085 7234 10189 21659 46146 32291 8366 12918 37323 9718 13397 34115 9731 8476 15390 9566 16269 11729 8457 20308
2021-09-01 14050 11620 4968 8777 12800 7107 13850 11050 4261 23700 13160 14960 12880 17490 5774 29090 42030 32170 6907 22850 13630 13150 16120 20470 39730 29730 147500 11340 27030 17640 7234 8877 41250 7218 41730 11220 72870 14720 9567 38890 9452 15850 27760 55600 9118 34360 10180 12330 11710 14810 26550 16700 24570 10220 22050 10450 14220 33610 12110 14010 10930 13210 25940 2909 19680 18360 8164 13380 34580 34660 9391 8806 7205 13410 43670 4607 17420 581 7478 6155 8256 37540 4881 64850 37930 4907 11910 43600 13830 12990 14030 6806 7978 28980 5094 22300 39390 22050 10420 38170 8438 15290 42920 10920 5279 9276 10620 8012 13660 11140 7982 7640 9900 31960 13580 13530 9346 10560 4394 11540 37390 16720 8034 12120 11060 12230 8567 7966 11620 25280 13860 10680 5356 8458 24880 13600 75620 11720 6444 13710 8796 30960 11420 5903 31420 16790 7338 20760 8600 28990 10980 13600 28190 7227 14020 9127 10770 34170 11470 11780 8826 9640 36410 10280 9483 33380 12870 12510 6552 10570 3400 10170 23490 13910 9437 10840 33090 17550 52380 24680 38050 15290 104400 51350 7639 31950 10190 11270 12610 71860 28200 17840 5428 4680 83810 13270 33870 4425 6591 7944 22700 5106 5348 11710 18700 12630 21240 8203 29060 6859 5837 2953 14950 10700 12300 41150 13030 45330 14790 19780 11510 5414 9568 18950 10480 9176 39570 15450 4602 17620 23980 7163 10280 25060 31260 11940 46090 13940 7094 35820 207 15630 5816 13790 9403 23020 22180 22530 6863 20720 16860 41070 17550 8879 14290 19880 26720 7488 17070 4538 32550 8848 10120 7051 32520 10880 8020 12350 10400 2786 3349 38640 46770 9360 6055 10030 35950 8677 10380 68850 493 23950 19760 25110 9940 8192 7083 10180 10800 27950 4576 7488 11630 7526 33540 8772 7593 9980 13390 10010 12200 21160 24880 20140 34180 10510 13150 24960 12660 9088 8838 6471 34740 26280 30200 8886 7625 37670 8011 22550 16850 23620 19290 29660 9208 8029 8055 17500 13580 9458 5988 14760 9552 22460 11930 10630 8397 3050 40020 28230 8977 7658 9970 8830 43390 35540 33330 35670 27220 12670 11300 9258 11760 7385 12210 10800 2689 9380 13530 7583 15360 7279 10280 21770 46290 32570 8417 13010 37440 9760 13480 34290 9766 8508 15440 9616 16340 11780 8493 20390
2021-09-02 14190 11850 5006 8792 12870 7153 13960 11130 4380 23940 13220 15040 12930 17580 5802 29180 42200 32240 6938 22900 13710 13220 16220 20570 40020 29830 148100 11410 27070 17720 7266 8916 41350 7253 41880 11260 73120 14760 9618 39030 9479 15930 28020 55910 9168 34470 10220 12390 11760 14850 26630 16830 24720 10310 22150 10500 14290 33770 12120 14140 10970 13310 26070 2947 19730 18400 8228 13430 34690 34740 9410 8860 7230 13450 44270 4675 17500 582 7524 6191 8256 37990 4917 65040 38120 4930 11980 43820 13880 13030 14090 6847 8040 29140 5127 22530 39550 22250 10480 38300 8592 15420 43090 11030 5340 9364 10820 8084 13720 11230 8097 7682 10040 32140 13630 13600 9394 10630 4419 11600 37530 16770 8074 12180 11130 12380 8609 8000 11790 25580 13950 10720 5376 8496 24930 13650 76440 11800 6487 13760 8842 31010 11500 5934 31480 16820 7354 20880 8647 29130 11040 13660 28280 7251 14060 9165 10850 34260 11540 11830 8844 9820 36520 10340 9540 33470 12950 12530 6680 10590 3400 10270 23540 13980 9477 10890 33340 17630 52620 24750 38150 15340 104800 51570 7681 32090 10230 11340 12670 72140 28290 17900 5455 4705 84120 13370 33990 4432 6642 8007 22810 5170 5388 11780 18840 12780 21300 8303 29190 6895 5851 2980 15040 10770 12370 41280 13100 45430 14870 19880 11690 5469 9604 19050 10540 9238 40260 15540 4628 17700 24070 7188 10320 25190 31380 12030 46280 14020 7131 35930 207 15710 5849 13820 9448 23180 22350 22630 6950 20790 16950 41190 17600 8910 14360 20200 26920 7519 17140 4564 32640 8863 10150 7081 32640 10960 8067 12410 10430 2796 3378 38780 46930 9390 6151 10160 36070 8706 10410 69170 498 24110 19830 25230 10020 8322 7107 10260 10850 28090 4640 7527 11710 7548 34070 8825 7622 10030 13450 10120 12260 21200 24950 20200 34270 10550 13220 25080 12720 9142 8911 6583 34850 26320 30300 8940 7677 37710 8052 22650 16900 23790 19380 29770 9255 8057 8157 17570 13620 9507 6026 14870 9585 22520 11980 10820 8438 3076 40110 28350 9026 7693 10060 8878 43560 35690 33440 35740 27320 12750 11350 9320 11820 7418 12260 10820 2732 9560 13560 7627 15580 7333 10350 21880 46420 32830 8467 13100 37580 9810 13520 34420 9802 8544 15520 9663 16420 11840 8519 20500
2021-09-03 14300 12020 5035 8820 12920 7206 14050 11220 4446 24170 13270 15110 12970 17660 5828 29260 42330 32340 6971 22950 13780 13280 16320 20660 40280 29920 148500 11480 27120 17810 7298 8955 41420 7276 42010 11310 73340 14810 9671 39150 9504 16010 28210 56160 9216 34580 10260 12440 11810 14880 26690 16940 24830 10390 22240 10540 14340 33930 12140 14270 11000 13410 26190 2979 19800 18450 8284 13480 34810 34860 9438 8906 7259 13500 44750 4733 17570 585 7573 6222 8272 38370 4952 65210 38270 4953 12030 44000 13940 13070 14140 6883 8099 29290 5155 22750 39690 22410 10520 38440 8721 15580 43230 11130 5387 9442 11000 8151 13770 11310 8201 7720 10180 32310 13670 13670 9439 10700 4443 11660 37640 16820 8107 12240 11190 12510 8656 8035 11950 25870 14020 10760 5402 8532 25000 13710 77200 11860 6530 13800 8885 31050 11570 5978 31530 16860 7377 20970 8695 29240 11080 13720 28370 7281 14100 9216 10930 34350 11600 11880 8875 9950 36630 10400 9592 33580 13020 12560 6778 10630 3400 10350 23570 14040 9524 10940 33560 17700 52830 24830 38250 15390 105200 51770 7719 32200 10270 11400 12750 72360 28380 17940 5478 4730 84350 13450 34100 4446 6692 8066 22910 5224 5424 11850 18960 12920 21360 8402 29310 6928 5867 3005 15130 10840 12430 41400 13170 45510 14940 19990 11840 5519 9640 19130 10590 9297 40820 15630 4647 17780 24160 7214 10370 25280 31510 12110 46440 14080 7164 36020 208 15770 5890 13850 9498 23320 22520 22740 7022 20850 17020 41300 17650 8942 14420 20450 27050 7547 17220 4586 32700 8882 10160 7113 32770 11020 8107 12470 10470 2808 3403 38880 47070 9426 6218 10270 36190 8740 10430 69470 504 24250 19890 25340 10080 8438 7133 10340 10900 28230 4695 7561 11780 7575 34520 8874 7653 10080 13510 10220 12300 21250 25030 20260 34350 10590 13280 25160 12770 9193 8971 6660 34970 26390 30410 8989 7732 37780 8092 22740 16940 23950 19480 29860 9284 8085 8244 17650 13650 9558 6058 14960 9618 22570 12020 10960 8485 3101 40190 28450 9066 7725 10130 8929 43710 35810 33550 35780 27400 12810 11390 9369 11880 7445 12310 10870 2752 9710 13600 7668 15740 7382 10420 21950 46520 33030 8516 13190 37700 9860 13580 34550 9836 8577 15590 9692 16490 11900 8549 20600
2021-09-04 14390 12140 5059 8855 12960 7262 14150 11300 4521 24380 13310 15170 13000 17720 5852 29330 42410 32450 7005 23000 13850 13330 16420 20740 40490 30000 149000 11540 27160 17890 7329 8994 41480 7296 42140 11350 73520 14850 9717 39250 9527 16080 28380 56340 9262 34690 10310 12480 11860 14900 26750 17030 24910 10440 22320 10590 14370 34080 12170 14390 11030 13500 26300 3009 19880 18510 8335 13540 34940 34980 9469 8938 7290 13540 45120 4785 17630 589 7623 6252 8300 38730 4986 65360 38400 4976 12090 44160 14000 13110 14180 6917 8156 29380 5181 22950 39830 22530 10570 38560 8812 15690 43340 11230 5427 9507 11130 8213 13830 11390 8269 7756 10310 32480 13710 13740 9476 10760 4465 11710 37740 16850 8137 12300 11240 12620 8704 8064 12100 26090 14090 10790 5429 8566 25080 13770 77830 11900 6570 13850 8926 31090 11640 6026 31580 16910 7402 21050 8744 29330 11120 13780 28450 7315 14140 9251 11010 34430 11650 11920 8913 10010 36740 10460 9641 33660 13080 12580 6869 10660 3405 10420 23600 14090 9572 10990 33760 17770 53020 24910 38350 15430 105500 51910 7755 32290 10310 11460 12820 72530 28460 17980 5499 4755 84510 13510 34200 4463 6741 8123 22990 5274 5459 11910 19070 13030 21420 8497 29420 6958 5885 3029 15230 10900 12490 41520 13240 45600 15000 20110 11950 5566 9677 19190 10640 9330 41270 15700 4660 17870 24240 7240 10420 25370 31610 12170 46550 14120 7196 36080 209 15820 5935 13880 9548 23420 22690 22850 7084 20890 17090 41400 17700 8973 14480 20690 27170 7572 17290 4606 32760 8902 10180 7147 32910 11080 8143 12520 10500 2822 3419 38980 47180 9466 6265 10350 36280 8778 10460 69730 509 24390 19940 25440 10140 8544 7159 10400 10940 28370 4746 7593 11850 7604 34840 8919 7685 10140 13550 10310 12330 21310 25080 20310 34410 10630 13340 25220 12820 9240 9024 6713 35090 26460 30520 9036 7789 37870 8131 22820 16980 24110 19580 29960 9304 8114 8316 17730 13690 9608 6087 15040 9650 22620 12060 11070 8505 3124 40260 28530 9095 7754 10170 8979 43830 35910 33640 35820 27470 12860 11430 9408 11920 7466 12350 10920 2770 9840 13640 7708 15870 7427 10460 22010 46610 33190 8564 13270 37810 9900 13650 34650 9870 8608 15650 9722 16550 11950 8581 20680
2021-09-05 14480 12240 5082 8891 13010 7320 14240 11380 4588 24600 13350 15230 13030 17780 5876 29400 42520 32560 7039 23040 13910 13390 16510 20810 40670 30080 149300 11600 27190 17970 7359 9034 41550 7314 42280 11390 73680 14900 9751 39340 9550 16150 28530 56530 9307 34790 10360 12520 11900 14930 26810 17130 25000 10500 22390 10620 14400 34230 12200 14520 11060 13590 26420 3039 19960 18560 8379 13590 35080 35110 9502 8965 7323 13580 45410 4833 17700 593 7673 6281 8330 39020 5020 65500 38540 4999 12140 44320 14070 13150 14220 6951 8213 29490 5207 23160 39970 22640 10610 38690 8892 15800 43450 11320 5465 9572 11260 8275 13880 11460 8346 7791 10450 32650 13740 13810 9507 10820 4487 11760 37840 16900 8166 12370 11300 12710 8752 8083 12250 26290 14150 10810 5457 8600 25160 13830 78500 11960 6611 13890 8966 31130 11700 6075 31630 16970 7429 21130 8793 29420 11160 13850 28540 7349 14180 9278 11080 34510 11720 11960 8952 10170 36850 10520 9689 33740 13140 12600 6941 10700 3413 10490 23630 14140 9622 11030 33950 17830 53220 24990 38440 15470 105800 52050 7791 32370 10350 11510 12900 72710 28550 18030 5519 4780 84690 13580 34300 4481 6790 8179 23060 5322 5493 11970 19180 13150 21480 8592 29530 6988 5903 3053 15320 10960 12550 41630 13310 45680 15060 20230 12030 5612 9714 19260 10690 9372 41680 15780 4675 17950 24300 7266 10470 25440 31720 12240 46690 14170 7227 36160 210 15860 5981 13920 9599 23510 22860 22960 7143 20930 17170 41490 17760 9004 14540 20890 27260 7597 17350 4626 32830 8923 10200 7181 33050 11140 8178 12580 10530 2837 3435 39070 47300 9507 6312 10430 36360 8816 10490 69980 515 24520 19990 25540 10200 8648 7186 10460 10990 28510 4797 7625 11920 7634 35180 8963 7717 10190 13600 10390 12380 21370 25140 20370 34480 10670 13410 25280 12880 9286 9075 6780 35220 26540 30630 9082 7846 37960 8170 22900 17030 24260 19680 30040 9339 8142 8367 17810 13730 9658 6117 15120 9681 22650 12090 11180 8528 3147 40340 28630 9129 7783 10210 9030 43980 36010 33730 35860 27560 12920 11470 9433 11960 7486 12380 10980 2785 9980 13690 7748 16000 7472 10500 22060 46720 33320 8613 13360 37920 9940 13710 34760 9903 8639 15700 9750 16620 12000 8613 20770
2021-09-06 14600 12400 5102 8932 13070 7380 14330 11460 4662 24810 13410 15310 13090 17860 5899 29470 42620 32670 7074 23110 13970 13440 16610 20880 40910 30160 149700 11660 27250 18040 7390 9073 41650 7330 42400 11440 73890 14940 9797 39430 9573 16220 28670 56750 9352 34900 10410 12560 11950 14960 26890 17230 25110 10540 22460 10690 14440 34370 12230 14640 11080 13680 26530 3067 20040 18610 8415 13650 35220 35250 9537 9007 7356 13630 45850 4884 17760 598 7724 6310 8366 39370 5054 65760 38690 5022 12180 44470 14130 13200 14260 6984 8270 29630 5231 23350 40160 22790 10640 38820 8993 15950 43570 11420 5499 9649 11410 8336 13930 11530 8445 7825 10520 32820 13800 13880 9542 10880 4508 11810 37930 16940 8193 12430 11350 12850 8803 8114 12400 26600 14220 10850 5487 8633 25240 13890 79100 12000 6651 13930 9006 31170 11760 6126 31680 17020 7458 21200 8842 29500 11190 13920 28620 7386 14220 9320 11150 34600 11790 12000 8994 10300 36960 10580 9736 33840 13220 12630 7045 10740 3423 10550 23650 14190 9675 11090 34140 17890 53400 25070 38540 15530 106100 52200 7826 32440 10400 11560 12980 72930 28640 18080 5538 4805 84870 13650 34390 4501 6839 8233 23130 5369 5526 12020 19290 13250 21550 8687 29630 7017 5921 3076 15420 11010 12600 41750 13370 45760 15140 20350 12140 5657 9751 19330 10740 9416 42180 15860 4703 18040 24390 7293 10520 25510 31870 12290 46830 14220 7258 36240 212 15910 6030 13950 9650 23610 23030 23080 7198 20980 17240 41590 17820 9036 14590 21120 27400 7621 17420 4645 32900 8945 10220 7215 33200 11200 8211 12630 10570 2852 3462 39180 47430 9550 6385 10500 36490 8856 10520 70290 520 24660 20030 25640 10270 8748 7214 10530 11030 28640 4846 7656 11980 7666 35590 9007 7750 10250 13650 10480 12430 21430 25200 20420 34540 10710 13470 25350 12930 9332 9122 6852 35350 26610 30740 9128 7904 38070 8208 22980 17070 24420 19790 30180 9379 8170 8426 17900 13770 9710 6146 15190 9713 22720 12130 11270 8551 3170 40410 28730 9181 7811 10250 9081 44130 36130 33810 35890 27650 12970 11510 9483 12020 7523 12430 11040 2799 10080 13730 7788 16150 7515 10550 22120 46860 33540 8662 13440 38050 9980 13780 34890 9936 8669 15760 9797 16680 12050 8646 20850
2021-09-07 14700 12530 5121 8974 13120 7441 14410 11540 4769 25030 13480 15390 13130 17960 5922 29540 42730 32790 7109 23190 14030 13490 16700 20950 41170 30230 150100 11710 27300 18120 7421 9113 41740 7352 42570 11490 74100 14990 9844 39550 9594 16290 28800 57020 9397 35000 10460 12590 12000 15000 26970 17330 25220 10590 22530 10750 14490 34520 12270 14770 11100 13770 26630 3095 20130 18660 8478 13710 35370 35390 9573 9061 7390 13670 46450 4949 17820 602 7776 6337 8405 39760 5088 66040 38830 5044 12230 44610 14190 13250 14300 7016 8327 29760 5255 23510 40360 22970 10680 38970 9089 16100 43700 11510 5532 9737 11520 8396 13980 11600 8530 7859 10660 32990 13860 13960 9593 10940 4529 11860 38020 16980 8219 12490 11400 13000 8854 8156 12550 26960 14280 10900 5518 8666 25330 13950 79520 12060 6691 13970 9046 31220 11810 6179 31730 17080 7488 21270 8892 29570 11230 13990 28700 7424 14260 9368 11220 34680 11870 12040 9039 10500 37080 10640 9782 33940 13300 12660 7131 10790 3435 10610 23670 14230 9728 11140 34320 17950 53580 25150 38630 15600 106500 52410 7861 32530 10440 11600 13070 73150 28730 18150 5557 4830 85110 13740 34480 4522 6888 8288 23200 5415 5559 12080 19390 13360 21610 8783 29730 7045 5940 3099 15520 11070 12660 41860 13440 45830 15220 20470 12290 5702 9788 19410 10790 9470 42690 15930 4723 18140 24510 7319 10570 25590 32000 12350 47000 14280 7288 36340 213 15980 6080 13980 9702 23740 23190 23190 7250 21040 17310 41680 17870 9068 14650 21340 27550 7644 17490 4663 32980 8967 10260 7250 33340 11260 8244 12680 10610 2868 3487 39310 47580 9593 6467 10590 36620 8897 10550 70550 526 24790 20080 25730 10340 8847 7242 10590 11080 28780 4894 7687 12050 7698 36010 9050 7782 10300 13700 10560 12470 21500 25310 20470 34590 10750 13530 25420 12990 9377 9168 6925 35480 26690 30860 9174 7963 38170 8247 23050 17110 24570 19890 30320 9419 8198 8492 17990 13810 9761 6188 15260 9745 22790 12190 11360 8594 3193 40480 28840 9231 7839 10300 9133 44320 36250 33900 36000 27740 13020 11540 9543 12090 7556 12480 11110 2825 10090 13780 7827 16330 7559 10610 22180 46980 33810 8711 13530 38210 10020 13850 35020 9970 8699 15810 9846 16750 12100 8680 20920

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-01 to 2021-09-07

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-08-31 13892 11388 4949 8731 12727 7038 13763 10967 4123 23464 13101 14851 12818 17393 5751 29022 41839 32036 6870 22796 13569 13098 16022 20401 39387 29653 146776 11281 26961 17554 7202 8835 41128 7173 41560 11167 72551 14669 9495 38720 9429 15784 27623 55219 9072 34245 10124 12294 11657 14791 26481 16571 24417 10176 21980 10397 14124 33458 12071 13872 10905 13119 25829 2882 19578 18301 8059 13317 34425 34503 9353 8730 7167 13361 42761 4522 17352 576 7427 6127 8212 36796 4846 64697 37719 4883 11862 43447 13762 12943 13994 6773 7922 28794 5070 21945 39233 21790 10378 37996 8379 15123 42752 10809 5247 9175 10565 7947 13596 11071 7858 7605 9736 31780 13517 13451 9268 10499 4371 11488 37301 16665 8007 12057 11004 12079 8514 7936 11622 24945 13800 10650 5321 8424 24781 13531 73822 11606 6402 13663 8756 30916 11358 5849 31366 16727 7307 20694 8547 28912 10947 13525 28108 7185 13977 9075 10692 34090 11378 11742 8777 9407 36298 10216 9436 33247 12774 12480 6482 10524 3389 10115 23466 13864 9380 10777 32898 17490 52187 24592 37945 15233 103780 51044 7602 31733 10144 11220 12524 71535 28108 17766 5409 4654 83432 13132 33772 4400 6541 7888 22631 5059 5315 11650 18598 12492 21174 8094 28949 6829 5818 2927 14848 10643 12242 41038 12963 45246 14696 19648 11326 5369 9528 18816 10431 9087 39417 15368 4581 17524 23893 7135 10226 24900 31100 11879 45848 13846 7063 35661 205 15525 5762 13754 9345 22829 22009 22405 6800 20641 16789 40975 17490 8845 14227 19464 26539 7464 16995 4519 32433 8824 10107 7013 32361 10822 7987 12298 10360 2769 3303 38457 46574 9314 5910 9830 35797 8632 10344 68461 493 23811 19659 25009 9815 8085 7054 10119 10749 27809 4529 7456 11568 7491 32905 8727 7559 9920 13344 9920 12133 21087 24785 20090 34123 10471 13085 24837 12607 9041 8788 6334 34598 26189 30079 8838 7564 37552 7969 22475 16809 23469 19172 29563 9173 7999 7897 17405 13532 9404 5931 14689 9519 22397 11877 10552 8352 3024 39949 28095 8903 7630 9886 8774 43198 35395 33242 35588 27098 12622 11264 9173 11693 7339 12141 10719 2644 9032 13481 7541 15085 7234 10189 21659 46146 32291 8366 12918 37323 9718 13397 34115 9731 8476 15390 9566 16269 11729 8457 20308
2021-09-01 14030 11550 4969 8779 12780 7110 13860 11060 4228 23660 13160 14940 12860 17490 5774 29100 41960 32180 6908 22860 13630 13150 16140 20470 39670 29720 147200 11350 27010 17640 7234 8882 41230 7189 41710 11220 72770 14710 9552 38840 9454 15850 27760 55500 9118 34360 10180 12330 11710 14830 26570 16680 24530 10220 22050 10460 14180 33620 12110 13990 10930 13220 25950 2915 19690 18360 8115 13380 34610 34690 9397 8785 7209 13410 43390 4589 17420 582 7491 6154 8260 37220 4884 64960 37880 4909 11910 43610 13840 13000 14030 6805 7975 28930 5095 22160 39410 21960 10420 38150 8526 15280 42900 10920 5281 9264 10760 8004 13660 11150 7958 7642 9890 31960 13580 13530 9317 10570 4397 11550 37390 16710 8034 12130 11060 12250 8572 7987 11760 25280 13860 10690 5361 8459 24880 13590 74810 11670 6448 13710 8796 31000 11420 5898 31450 16790 7342 20770 8605 28980 10990 13600 28200 7230 14020 9132 10750 34180 11460 11780 8833 9580 36420 10280 9485 33360 12860 12510 6614 10570 3410 10190 23530 13910 9445 10840 33100 17560 52360 24680 38060 15300 104200 51250 7644 31850 10190 11270 12620 71770 28200 17840 5428 4682 83680 13220 33860 4430 6597 7943 22700 5117 5349 11720 18700 12600 21250 8207 29060 6862 5852 2954 14960 10700 12300 41170 13030 45340 14780 19780 11480 5421 9571 18910 10490 9144 40070 15460 4606 17630 24000 7163 10280 24990 31240 11940 46030 13910 7094 35770 207 15590 5835 13790 9410 22950 22190 22540 6851 20700 16870 41080 17560 8880 14290 19750 26710 7488 17070 4539 32520 8851 10130 7050 32540 10880 8020 12350 10400 2786 3332 38590 46720 9364 5998 9930 35940 8682 10380 68730 500 23960 19720 25110 9890 8194 7086 10190 10800 27950 4587 7491 11630 7528 33390 8775 7595 9990 13400 10020 12190 21160 24890 20150 34210 10510 13160 24920 12670 9093 8827 6426 34750 26290 30200 8890 7627 37680 8014 22560 16850 23660 19300 29700 9215 8032 7977 17500 13570 9464 5975 14770 9553 22470 11930 10610 8395 3050 40020 28200 8949 7658 9950 8834 43390 35530 33340 35700 27210 12680 11300 9235 11760 7375 12190 10810 2680 9185 13530 7587 15280 7286 10250 21730 46280 32550 8414 13000 37470 9755 13490 34260 9767 8503 15440 9610 16340 11780 8498 20390
2021-09-02 14160 11710 4993 8815 12830 7167 13960 11140 4350 23840 13220 15010 12910 17590 5801 29170 42090 32290 6941 22910 13700 13210 16240 20560 39950 29800 147700 11410 27050 17730 7262 8923 41330 7212 41870 11270 73010 14760 9605 38950 9477 15930 27900 55790 9163 34480 10220 12380 11770 14860 26640 16780 24660 10280 22130 10510 14230 33790 12150 14090 10950 13320 26070 2955 19760 18410 8172 13430 34760 34840 9430 8846 7243 13450 43930 4648 17490 586 7560 6189 8293 37670 4922 65190 38060 4936 11970 43780 13900 13050 14070 6839 8038 29080 5123 22360 39570 22130 10460 38290 8687 15410 43050 11010 5319 9358 10940 8058 13710 11220 8040 7679 10020 32130 13630 13610 9358 10630 4423 11600 37490 16760 8059 12200 11140 12390 8624 8039 11930 25550 13940 10720 5390 8493 24970 13650 75630 11730 6489 13750 8836 31070 11480 5964 31540 16830 7371 20850 8657 29060 11030 13670 28270 7267 14060 9184 10820 34270 11540 11820 8877 9740 36530 10350 9525 33460 12940 12530 6729 10610 3433 10280 23610 13960 9495 10900 33290 17620 52550 24770 38170 15350 104600 51450 7684 31950 10240 11320 12690 72010 28280 17890 5449 4710 83930 13310 33950 4449 6654 7991 22780 5181 5387 11780 18820 12690 21320 8296 29180 6893 5894 2978 15080 10760 12360 41290 13100 45420 14870 19910 11610 5481 9610 18990 10540 9196 40690 15530 4634 17720 24100 7191 10330 25090 31380 12000 46200 13990 7128 35860 209 15660 5909 13820 9473 23080 22380 22660 6910 20750 16950 41180 17610 8912 14350 19990 26910 7515 17140 4560 32600 8872 10150 7085 32690 10950 8056 12410 10440 2802 3359 38710 46850 9408 6070 10040 36060 8724 10420 68960 503 24140 19780 25210 9980 8290 7116 10260 10850 28090 4654 7526 11700 7559 33810 8821 7628 10050 13450 10120 12240 21230 24990 20210 34330 10550 13230 25010 12730 9141 8868 6506 34880 26360 30310 8939 7698 37780 8054 22640 16900 23890 19410 29830 9255 8062 8068 17590 13610 9516 6013 14840 9584 22530 11980 10730 8438 3092 40090 28290 8995 7689 10030 8887 43540 35660 33430 35820 27290 12730 11340 9297 11820 7409 12240 10870 2727 9322 13580 7631 15440 7333 10320 21810 46390 32830 8458 13070 37620 9792 13560 34380 9805 8539 15510 9650 16410 11830 8530 20480
2021-09-03 14270 11840 5013 8855 12870 7224 14050 11230 4438 24000 13280 15060 12950 17670 5826 29240 42200 32410 6972 22960 13760 13270 16330 20640 40200 29860 148100 11470 27100 17810 7290 8961 41410 7230 42020 11320 73220 14790 9657 39060 9500 16000 28030 56030 9206 34590 10260 12410 11820 14890 26710 16880 24770 10330 22200 10560 14270 33940 12180 14200 10970 13410 26180 2990 19830 18450 8226 13470 34900 34980 9464 8899 7276 13490 44450 4703 17550 592 7627 6221 8330 38020 4958 65380 38210 4962 12010 43940 13960 13100 14110 6874 8100 29220 5149 22550 39710 22280 10500 38430 8830 15540 43190 11110 5353 9437 11110 8107 13760 11300 8122 7712 10150 32280 13670 13690 9393 10700 4446 11650 37580 16800 8080 12260 11210 12520 8676 8091 12090 25810 14010 10760 5423 8527 25050 13710 76430 11780 6528 13790 8874 31140 11530 6028 31620 16870 7401 20920 8708 29130 11060 13740 28340 7306 14100 9240 10870 34340 11610 11860 8922 9890 36650 10410 9567 33570 13020 12550 6829 10650 3455 10360 23680 14000 9545 10960 33470 17690 52730 24850 38270 15390 104900 51630 7722 32050 10290 11370 12770 72230 28360 17940 5468 4730 84140 13400 34020 4470 6711 8037 22860 5238 5422 11830 18930 12780 21380 8376 29290 6923 5924 3001 15180 10820 12410 41400 13160 45520 14950 20030 11740 5537 9647 19060 10590 9246 41200 15600 4654 17810 24190 7217 10380 25180 31500 12060 46360 14040 7161 35950 210 15720 5979 13850 9532 23200 22560 22780 6958 20810 17030 41270 17670 8943 14410 20220 27040 7541 17200 4580 32660 8893 10170 7121 32830 11020 8088 12460 10470 2819 3384 38820 46960 9456 6136 10140 36190 8766 10450 69200 507 24290 19830 25300 10050 8382 7144 10310 10890 28230 4714 7559 11760 7591 34230 8863 7658 10110 13490 10210 12280 21300 25100 20260 34410 10580 13290 25090 12780 9187 8905 6578 35020 26440 30410 8987 7754 37890 8091 22720 16940 24100 19510 29940 9286 8093 8150 17680 13650 9568 6047 14910 9616 22590 12030 10810 8480 3122 40150 28360 9042 7714 10100 8937 43660 35790 33520 35920 27380 12780 11370 9351 11880 7442 12290 10930 2764 9456 13610 7674 15600 7373 10370 21880 46470 33070 8500 13130 37740 9823 13630 34480 9840 8570 15570 9679 16470 11880 8562 20560
2021-09-04 14360 11970 5032 8897 12910 7281 14140 11310 4529 24160 13330 15120 12990 17750 5851 29310 42280 32530 7001 23010 13810 13330 16410 20710 40420 29910 148500 11530 27140 17890 7319 9002 41480 7247 42150 11360 73420 14820 9707 39160 9522 16070 28140 56220 9249 34690 10300 12450 11880 14920 26780 16960 24870 10370 22260 10610 14300 34080 12210 14290 10990 13500 26290 3025 19900 18490 8277 13500 35020 35120 9500 8944 7308 13520 44910 4755 17620 597 7694 6248 8366 38370 4994 65540 38350 4987 12050 44090 14030 13140 14150 6901 8160 29340 5173 22720 39840 22410 10530 38560 8950 15660 43300 11190 5385 9511 11250 8157 13800 11370 8194 7742 10270 32430 13720 13760 9424 10760 4467 11700 37680 16840 8099 12320 11270 12640 8727 8127 12240 26060 14070 10790 5453 8553 25140 13760 77150 11830 6567 13830 8912 31210 11580 6090 31690 16920 7432 20990 8756 29200 11100 13800 28410 7343 14140 9284 10930 34420 11670 11890 8966 10020 36770 10460 9610 33660 13100 12570 6931 10690 3476 10440 23750 14040 9596 11010 33620 17750 52880 24930 38350 15420 105200 51770 7757 32130 10330 11420 12840 72410 28440 17980 5486 4752 84300 13470 34090 4490 6762 8078 22930 5292 5457 11880 19030 12860 21440 8444 29390 6951 5948 3023 15280 10870 12450 41510 13230 45600 15030 20150 11850 5590 9684 19110 10630 9289 41610 15680 4668 17890 24270 7242 10420 25270 31620 12120 46490 14100 7193 36020 212 15780 6047 13870 9586 23260 22740 22890 7003 20860 17100 41360 17730 8975 14460 20440 27160 7566 17250 4599 32720 8914 10190 7153 32960 11080 8118 12510 10510 2834 3403 38910 47030 9492 6197 10220 36300 8808 10490 69410 512 24440 19870 25390 10120 8469 7173 10370 10940 28360 4771 7591 11820 7624 34590 8902 7692 10170 13540 10290 12310 21370 25190 20310 34480 10610 13350 25140 12840 9232 8939 6642 35150 26520 30500 9031 7806 37990 8123 22800 16980 24280 19620 30050 9311 8121 8220 17770 13680 9619 6081 14970 9647 22640 12070 10880 8512 3153 40200 28420 9080 7739 10160 8979 43750 35910 33600 36020 27450 12820 11410 9402 11910 7473 12330 11000 2798 9574 13650 7715 15750 7411 10410 21940 46530 33270 8541 13200 37850 9851 13700 34570 9871 8599 15630 9709 16530 11930 8594 20640
2021-09-05 14450 12100 5048 8940 12950 7335 14230 11400 4617 24330 13380 15180 13030 17830 5875 29370 42370 32640 7029 23060 13860 13380 16500 20780 40620 29970 148900 11590 27170 17980 7347 9040 41550 7266 42270 11410 73610 14850 9750 39250 9543 16130 28250 56430 9291 34800 10340 12480 11930 14940 26840 17050 24970 10420 22320 10660 14350 34220 12240 14370 11010 13600 26400 3057 19970 18530 8326 13540 35150 35240 9535 8988 7340 13560 45350 4807 17680 602 7760 6276 8409 38710 5028 65690 38510 5012 12090 44230 14090 13190 14180 6928 8221 29460 5195 22910 39970 22550 10570 38690 9067 15770 43410 11260 5416 9596 11380 8202 13850 11430 8268 7778 10390 32580 13760 13840 9452 10820 4488 11750 37760 16880 8124 12370 11330 12760 8779 8160 12380 26310 14140 10820 5478 8579 25220 13820 77890 11880 6605 13870 8949 31270 11620 6154 31770 16960 7463 21060 8804 29250 11130 13870 28460 7380 14180 9321 10980 34500 11740 11930 9008 10180 36880 10520 9649 33750 13170 12600 7029 10730 3498 10510 23810 14080 9645 11040 33770 17810 53040 25010 38430 15450 105500 51900 7793 32210 10380 11460 12920 72600 28510 18030 5505 4776 84480 13550 34160 4511 6812 8117 22990 5343 5491 11940 19130 12920 21510 8514 29500 6979 5977 3043 15380 10930 12500 41620 13290 45680 15100 20260 11960 5641 9720 19180 10680 9333 42020 15750 4681 17960 24340 7268 10470 25350 31730 12170 46620 14150 7224 36100 213 15830 6115 13890 9639 23340 22900 23000 7043 20910 17170 41440 17790 9006 14510 20670 27260 7590 17300 4617 32780 8935 10210 7180 33100 11140 8145 12560 10540 2850 3423 39020 47110 9530 6260 10290 36390 8850 10520 69630 517 24580 19910 25480 10190 8555 7202 10430 10980 28480 4825 7621 11890 7657 34960 8942 7725 10220 13580 10380 12350 21430 25280 20350 34550 10640 13410 25210 12900 9274 8972 6707 35290 26600 30590 9077 7859 38100 8158 22870 17020 24450 19720 30150 9346 8150 8299 17850 13720 9670 6114 15020 9678 22680 12110 10960 8544 3192 40240 28490 9118 7762 10220 9020 43850 36020 33680 36110 27540 12870 11440 9446 11960 7503 12370 11050 2828 9700 13690 7756 15910 7447 10450 21990 46610 33470 8584 13260 37960 9877 13770 34660 9900 8630 15680 9738 16580 11980 8625 20710
2021-09-06 14560 12230 5068 8984 13010 7393 14330 11480 4740 24500 13440 15250 13080 17920 5899 29440 42490 32760 7059 23110 13920 13430 16600 20850 40890 30020 149300 11650 27230 18060 7375 9081 41650 7289 42440 11460 73830 14890 9802 39360 9565 16200 28400 56700 9333 34910 10390 12510 11990 14970 26920 17140 25090 10460 22390 10710 14390 34360 12270 14480 11030 13690 26510 3088 20050 18570 8379 13580 35310 35390 9572 9042 7372 13600 45850 4864 17750 608 7827 6306 8450 39050 5063 65930 38670 5036 12140 44380 14150 13240 14220 6962 8282 29610 5218 23100 40150 22720 10610 38840 9214 15900 43540 11360 5446 9673 11550 8255 13890 11500 8341 7814 10500 32730 13820 13920 9496 10880 4508 11800 37850 16930 8148 12440 11420 12890 8831 8205 12530 26560 14200 10860 5511 8615 25310 13870 78580 11930 6643 13900 8986 31340 11670 6219 31840 17000 7494 21130 8852 29320 11160 13940 28520 7420 14220 9365 11040 34570 11840 11970 9058 10320 36990 10580 9696 33860 13250 12620 7133 10760 3520 10580 23880 14110 9700 11110 33940 17860 53260 25100 38550 15500 105900 52110 7830 32300 10430 11510 13000 72840 28590 18080 5524 4805 84720 13640 34240 4533 6864 8160 23060 5394 5525 11990 19240 13010 21580 8596 29600 7007 6013 3066 15470 10980 12550 41740 13350 45760 15190 20380 12070 5692 9757 19250 10730 9379 42510 15820 4705 18050 24430 7295 10520 25440 31870 12220 46800 14200 7256 36190 215 15900 6183 13930 9704 23460 23090 23110 7087 20960 17240 41530 17850 9038 14570 20890 27420 7614 17370 4636 32870 8957 10230 7212 33270 11200 8176 12610 10580 2867 3454 39150 47230 9578 6331 10400 36520 8892 10550 69890 522 24720 19960 25580 10260 8644 7232 10490 11030 28610 4880 7654 11960 7690 35340 8989 7757 10290 13630 10470 12390 21500 25380 20400 34620 10670 13470 25290 12950 9319 9005 6779 35420 26680 30680 9123 7926 38220 8200 22950 17060 24620 19830 30270 9380 8179 8388 17950 13750 9721 6150 15080 9709 22740 12160 11060 8575 3239 40290 28560 9168 7788 10280 9072 43990 36150 33770 36200 27630 12910 11470 9497 12010 7535 12420 11130 2857 9817 13730 7798 16040 7485 10510 22060 46710 33710 8632 13320 38100 9907 13840 34770 9939 8670 15740 9780 16640 12030 8659 20790
2021-09-07 14680 12370 5087 9028 13060 7453 14420 11570 4853 24660 13500 15320 13130 18000 5923 29500 42600 32880 7089 23170 13980 13490 16710 20920 41160 30080 149800 11710 27290 18140 7404 9125 41750 7313 42600 11500 74060 14930 9853 39480 9587 16270 28530 56980 9375 35010 10430 12550 12040 15010 26990 17230 25210 10500 22450 10770 14450 34530 12310 14580 11040 13790 26610 3123 20120 18610 8446 13620 35470 35540 9609 9094 7404 13640 46390 4920 17820 614 7894 6337 8490 39450 5098 66180 38840 5061 12190 44530 14220 13290 14250 6993 8343 29750 5244 23290 40310 22890 10640 38990 9345 16030 43670 11450 5476 9750 11700 8312 13930 11580 8424 7853 10620 32880 13880 14000 9547 10950 4529 11850 37950 16970 8172 12510 11490 13030 8884 8256 12680 26850 14270 10900 5545 8654 25410 13920 79320 12000 6682 13940 9023 31400 11710 6284 31920 17050 7526 21190 8900 29390 11200 14020 28580 7460 14270 9409 11090 34650 11940 12000 9106 10490 37110 10650 9737 33960 13340 12650 7238 10800 3542 10650 23940 14160 9753 11170 34110 17920 53480 25180 38660 15550 106300 52350 7866 32400 10470 11550 13080 73070 28660 18160 5544 4833 84960 13730 34320 4554 6922 8201 23130 5445 5559 12040 19350 13090 21650 8682 29710 7035 6052 3090 15570 11040 12610 41850 13410 45860 15270 20500 12190 5743 9794 19320 10770 9430 43030 15890 4729 18150 24540 7323 10570 25530 31990 12280 46960 14260 7288 36290 216 15970 6253 13960 9769 23590 23270 23220 7126 21020 17310 41610 17910 9070 14640 21120 27590 7639 17440 4654 32960 8978 10250 7254 33420 11260 8205 12660 10610 2886 3482 39280 47350 9630 6404 10490 36650 8935 10580 70140 527 24880 20010 25680 10340 8733 7260 10550 11070 28750 4934 7687 12030 7724 35750 9031 7790 10350 13670 10550 12430 21570 25500 20450 34700 10700 13530 25370 13010 9365 9038 6853 35560 26770 30780 9172 7995 38330 8242 23020 17100 24810 19940 30400 9412 8209 8489 18040 13790 9772 6192 15150 9741 22800 12210 11170 8613 3274 40330 28660 9225 7814 10350 9124 44120 36270 33850 36320 27710 12960 11500 9554 12070 7567 12470 11210 2893 9934 13780 7839 16210 7533 10570 22130 46810 33970 8678 13390 38240 9938 13920 34890 9975 8702 15790 9821 16710 12080 8692 20870

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.