COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-09-04 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-09-04

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-09-04

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-06-2112-272021-07-082021-07-062021-07-062021-06-232021-07-112021-08-182021-08-242021-08-232021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-082021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-122021-07-0712-292021-07-0712-272021-07-0812-072021-07-072021-05-102021-07-062021-01-012021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-172021-07-072021-07-072021-08-182021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-07-072021-07-062021-08-232021-07-072021-07-272021-07-082021-07-072021-06-202021-08-232021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-08-112021-07-07 --2021-08-242021-07-062021-08-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-08-082021-07-072021-07-072021-08-232021-08-242021-07-072021-07-27 --2021-07-062021-08-172021-08-09 --2021-07-022021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-07-082021-07-072021-07-062021-01-022021-07-072021-08-152021-07-072021-08-092021-08-082021-07-072021-08-212021-06-212021-07-0807-212021-07-062021-08-092021-08-232021-07-072021-07-072021-07-07 --2021-07-062021-08-222021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-102021-07-072021-07-092021-07-072021-07-052021-07-062021-08-102021-06-252021-07-082021-08-172021-08-13 --2021-08-242021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-042021-07-06 --2021-07-07 --2021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-07 --2021-07-072021-08-242021-07-072021-07-07 --2021-07-092021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-08-162021-08-232021-07-082021-08-092021-07-072021-07-04 --2021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-102021-07-072021-06-232021-08-172021-07-082021-08-242021-08-082021-07-072021-07-102021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-07-0712-272021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-01-032021-07-032021-07-082021-07-072021-07-21 --12-262021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-102021-07-102021-07-052021-07-0712-082021-07-082021-08-092021-07-082021-07-072021-08-11 --2021-07-072021-06-272021-07-072021-07-072021-08-202021-08-232021-07-172021-07-082021-07-062021-07-032021-07-072021-07-312021-07-072021-08-17 --2021-08-092021-07-072021-07-032021-07-082021-07-2510-042021-07-052021-07-062021-07-072021-07-042021-07-062021-07-072021-07-082021-07-062021-07-272021-07-072021-07-082021-08-082021-07-072021-06-292021-06-222021-08-222021-07-072021-06-222021-08-052021-07-072021-01-01 --2021-07-062021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-0710-042021-08-2312-272021-07-082021-07-062021-07-052021-07-072021-07-042021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-082021-07-072021-07-062021-07-0612-232021-08-082021-06-282021-07-062021-07-082021-07-0807-212021-07-062021-08-112021-07-062021-08-102021-08-182021-07-072021-08-052021-07-052021-07-072021-08-092021-07-072021-08-132021-07-0610-042021-07-212021-07-082021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-06-272021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-06-202021-07-072021-07-062021-07-052021-07-07 --2021-07-052021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-182021-07-072021-07-072021-06-222021-07-082021-08-092021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-08-102021-08-102021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-08-212021-08-102021-07-072021-07-052021-07-082021-07-072021-07-052021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-092021-07-062021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-132021-07-07 --2021-08-09 --2021-07-072021-07-042021-08-242021-08-092021-08-102021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-07-092021-07-072021-06-292021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-06-292021-07-082021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-06-30
Peak daily increment 137 102 51 115 105 84 99 91 109 201 127 93 63 100 57 93 260 276 49 139 152 144 210 103 379 176 1249 72 157 159 95 61 208 42 484 107 478 103 55 176 68 96 218 621 60 258 94 72 97 74 161 183 158 74 159 69 60 298 115 24 101 101 227 126 170 64 72 269 243 82 71 69 121 618 84 142 13 114 53 696 607 376 53 101 229 122 140 92 53 86 246 48 195 400 180 46 269 145 184 189 296 46 131 206 62 122 88 65 181 295 73 85 61 90 28 82 145 105 58 110 123 81 66 55 166 87 67 56 82 274 123 95 63 113 163 69 229 94 84 156 152 61 113 143 65 146 54 71 151 99 82 73 197 80 84 130 101 71 142 56 45 85 189 84 64 71 247 93 271 311 301 117 707 284 51 213 80 99 727 108 120 41 47 442 94 169 40 71 105 124 72 37 101 118 274 97 196 49 38 46 23 94 116 384 105 155 35 141 83 94 256 78 71 389 95 35 203 228 77 96 126 322 90 264 158 35 255 4 131 87 56 113 143 343 203 104 83 120 297 57 114 150 186 52 140 67 213 75 69 49 207 81 47 116 70 19 29 253 255 94 83 120 195 65 96 482 24 169 65 277 89 126 49 72 68 345 83 40 74 68 460 58 68 77 92 106 75 303 200 152 243 70 131 141 87 77 56 43 243 339 240 74 428 57 145 101 269 151 219 83 60 140 137 116 92 41 86 78 100 105 131 47 60 226 184 59 64 28 79 352 191 157 313 195 111 73 70 84 37 102 68 94 45 217 72 67 138 380 351 60 81 243 59 92 185 99 63 65 76 117 120 74 138
Days since peak 75 251 58 60 60 73 55 17 11 12 59 60 60 59 60 58 58 60 59 60 59 60 59 60 54 59 249 59 251 58 271 59 117 60 246 59 59 59 18 59 59 17 59 59 60 60 59 59 61 59 60 12 59 39 58 59 76 12 59 58 59 24 59 11 60 27 58 59 59 60 27 59 59 12 11 59 39 60 18 26 64 59 59 59 59 59 61 58 59 60 245 59 20 59 26 27 59 14 75 58 410 60 26 12 59 59 59 60 13 60 59 59 59 59 25 59 57 59 61 60 25 71 58 18 22 11 59 60 60 62 60 59 58 59 59 59 59 11 59 59 57 60 59 59 59 61 19 12 58 26 59 62 59 59 60 56 59 73 18 58 11 27 59 56 59 59 59 58 59 251 59 58 59 244 63 58 59 45 252 59 59 59 59 59 25 56 61 59 270 58 26 58 59 24 59 69 59 59 15 12 49 58 60 63 59 35 59 18 26 59 63 58 41 335 61 60 59 62 60 59 58 60 39 59 58 27 59 67 74 13 59 74 30 59 246 60 59 58 59 58 59 335 12 251 58 60 61 59 62 58 58 59 59 59 59 59 27 59 60 60 255 27 68 60 58 58 410 60 24 60 25 17 59 30 61 59 26 59 22 60 335 45 58 60 59 59 58 69 59 59 59 59 59 59 60 59 59 76 59 60 61 59 61 59 59 59 17 59 59 74 58 26 59 60 59 25 25 59 60 59 59 14 25 59 61 58 59 61 59 60 59 57 60 59 58 59 59 59 53 59 26 59 62 11 26 25 59 59 58 57 59 67 59 59 59 60 59 67 58 59 60 58 66
Last total 14670 12246 5032 9013 12980 7421 14117 11266 4539 24250 13315 15162 13052 17791 5874 29322 42476 32658 7065 23068 13907 13315 16434 20698 40357 30038 148792 11578 27189 18017 7385 9020 41566 7284 42306 11400 73513 14859 9716 39195 9555 16194 28150 56362 9304 34818 10355 12445 11889 14948 26797 17208 24859 10390 22302 10688 14351 34470 12282 14570 11034 13499 26452 3076 20081 18630 8310 13702 35312 35445 9555 8936 7365 13554 44978 4820 17739 609 7842 6280 8503 38052 5046 65980 38481 4994 12053 44144 14117 13221 14201 6965 8245 29421 5204 22575 40015 22560 10564 38672 8876 15807 43354 11324 5400 9486 11177 8162 13861 11393 8265 7789 10322 32686 13763 13885 9459 10784 4489 11741 37736 16898 8156 12439 11302 12868 8786 8201 12111 26681 14165 10853 5514 8642 25189 13832 77839 11894 6650 13893 8954 31320 11585 6199 31768 17066 7472 20984 8778 29308 11111 13896 28596 7350 14196 9297 10930 34519 11748 11940 9076 10272 36838 10521 9681 33674 13202 12630 7048 10732 3572 10409 23787 14088 9669 11006 33755 17738 53078 25055 38459 15529 105513 51875 7768 32161 10396 11450 12962 72722 28652 18077 5532 4753 84460 13438 34165 4513 6806 8166 22965 5248 5483 11920 19011 12930 21497 8555 29440 6977 6003 3067 15426 10934 12466 41564 13330 45726 15125 20143 12003 5574 9701 19126 10687 9292 41900 15731 4724 18020 24393 7309 10547 25334 31699 12148 46471 14171 7204 36110 212 15804 6062 13938 9676 23389 22690 22875 7127 20934 17180 41435 17787 9005 14502 20708 27385 7555 17327 4608 32827 8955 10209 7165 33058 11038 8139 12524 10535 2850 3418 39014 47237 9531 6209 10149 36439 8846 10599 69630 532 24444 19962 25474 10137 8568 7189 10425 11002 28412 4732 7646 11847 7704 34721 8955 7737 10205 13559 10284 12374 21482 25213 20415 34599 10684 13439 25178 12883 9267 8983 6705 35253 26622 30733 9098 7871 38214 8142 22825 17018 24493 19777 30170 9358 8167 8177 17923 13789 9657 6112 14904 9725 22727 12126 10929 8548 3134 40419 28614 9200 7796 10319 9036 44009 36098 33675 36086 27492 12920 11522 9391 11989 7517 12388 11184 2764 9716 13770 7686 15922 7496 10602 21973 46790 33414 8576 13279 37957 9874 13794 34754 9882 8631 15665 9751 16657 11998 8707 20597
Last daily increment 109 129 12 38 34 71 69 59 48 160 35 43 37 72 24 45 107 97 26 52 58 35 73 51 222 55 319 67 44 84 30 27 72 15 153 32 177 18 40 71 17 10 100 163 31 77 36 25 37 37 43 52 80 32 35 53 27 44 38 29 22 82 116 13 90 57 45 75 138 151 38 32 44 43 320 53 76 4 30 27 61 227 42 253 146 23 29 128 69 43 34 42 25 109 19 159 153 124 17 142 75 119 85 87 25 50 94 36 43 67 67 31 106 161 37 66 33 47 12 43 61 36 40 59 47 158 48 47 114 247 20 27 24 41 86 53 562 51 37 33 31 67 28 12 52 61 29 59 44 69 42 59 98 32 40 31 32 82 50 37 56 91 99 67 47 71 72 25 84 39 14 39 43 41 47 27 149 27 178 72 78 69 277 161 29 64 38 53 113 198 101 45 20 19 152 42 66 24 45 13 78 29 35 40 89 105 60 89 93 29 20 17 48 52 28 108 62 83 41 100 99 29 36 52 37 37 362 70 23 95 113 32 58 52 115 34 102 56 40 83 0 46 2 31 52 118 131 75 14 47 56 96 52 31 36 195 46 24 54 18 77 29 15 25 147 33 21 27 31 13 20 105 117 38 43 48 115 37 51 216 8 134 64 78 36 72 27 53 54 86 29 23 43 34 297 40 37 39 42 50 48 83 83 48 61 42 58 70 42 29 33 54 101 71 95 59 66 147 20 74 31 24 105 92 41 41 69 120 48 46 24 21 40 58 38 96 4 17 74 88 35 37 10 47 129 125 76 67 73 45 54 57 51 33 40 84 24 108 44 34 150 68 54 52 133 203 38 70 116 22 43 106 20 26 3 36 58 41 35 62
Last week 1036 1212 113 401 362 554 529 494 603 1228 346 473 319 596 159 442 825 941 284 435 470 320 631 410 1491 549 2710 422 322 630 253 264 619 146 1060 355 1394 299 308 676 181 495 794 1619 316 812 348 210 325 235 499 855 662 279 455 433 315 1263 318 944 176 598 835 232 758 442 338 554 1266 1325 304 301 295 288 3359 434 487 45 530 205 405 1928 276 1906 1042 154 289 967 504 403 287 259 415 885 179 960 1192 1090 262 950 708 1045 850 742 207 480 930 328 398 441 618 248 926 1320 371 600 262 416 166 378 560 308 209 540 401 1149 386 338 743 2486 465 298 283 282 619 437 5700 385 344 326 281 568 340 419 569 492 243 397 356 509 231 540 654 267 323 315 360 578 513 272 429 1194 768 444 335 636 578 221 837 329 224 415 405 266 433 345 1299 362 1316 655 735 423 2530 1169 254 568 352 331 651 1639 726 434 158 159 1455 447 589 187 374 373 457 282 231 396 624 663 486 716 697 217 249 193 787 420 347 783 500 642 582 767 959 287 261 468 367 298 3736 547 195 705 716 232 441 578 884 376 940 422 198 640 13 396 426 269 453 774 1007 700 412 388 568 670 449 231 423 1758 1140 129 468 126 557 189 171 220 1077 334 218 325 258 116 162 798 959 334 465 464 886 326 344 1732 61 908 396 661 450 694 202 437 352 869 290 250 414 298 2747 325 249 418 326 547 335 565 633 443 645 301 510 482 400 335 272 534 991 669 913 376 438 982 268 504 285 1274 900 919 275 240 373 712 330 381 253 331 290 480 358 471 265 153 616 738 384 226 509 396 1194 943 601 688 597 408 311 330 441 253 336 685 156 935 411 242 1224 358 498 420 928 1619 324 525 948 233 612 898 223 222 337 276 528 366 339 465
Previous peak date07-2107-2112-2712-2612-2707-2112-2112-2607-2112-2112-2112-2712-0712-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1111-0212-2110-0712-2211-0212-2710-1310-13 --2021-01-0710-1511-1311-0212-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2811-0212-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3010-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-21 --11-0212-2212-2812-2512-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-3007-21 --12-26 --12-2912-2612-2712-2112-2411-0212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-2810-272021-02-2510-0110-1412-2712-0712-2607-2107-2112-27 --12-2412-2907-2112-2412-2111-092021-06-1412-2607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-06 --07-2112-2312-2712-222021-06-2112-2512-2512-2510-1710-2912-26 --12-2112-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-2712-2812-2112-2212-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-2212-292021-06-2112-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0107-2112-28 --12-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2210-2709-2912-2912-3011-0211-0212-2112-2712-2711-0212-2209-2812-2712-2212-2112-3111-022021-01-0212-22 --2021-01-07 --12-2112-2112-2112-2212-2112-2612-3107-2112-2212-2712-0607-2112-0712-2812-2911-0211-0312-2712-0612-27 --12-0810-1410-2612-2612-2107-2111-0112-2112-3011-0412-2111-0312-2712-212021-01-0111-0212-2911-0210-22 --12-2712-2812-2607-212021-01-0611-0211-0212-2811-0212-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2207-2112-0610-1112-2112-2710-1912-1310-1112-1310-1812-3012-2810-1312-252021-01-262021-01-0211-0212-2910-3107-2112-2112-2812-2912-2211-02 --12-3012-2512-2512-2107-2112-2212-2112-2812-26 --2021-01-0412-2211-0907-2112-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-2712-2207-2112-2812-2711-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2510-182021-01-0212-2612-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-2112-2212-2212-2712-06 --12-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-21 -- --11-0212-0707-2112-2212-2812-2210-1612-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-2712-3112-2812-2512-3112-2112-3012-2611-02
Previous peak daily increment 605 360 61 88 97 285 134 73 115 260 170 110 176 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 128 109 277 233 262 426 1200 75 166 98 58 234 50 355 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 1167 107 508 94 186 62 122 160 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 107 303 292 268 52 197 249 283 59 91 71 65 1221 243 35 53 94 288 34 551 288 38 181 598 151 69 189 72 58 164 27 206 248 187 118 322 216 697 536 60 52 370 76 160 106 110 51 231 206 102 163 146 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 457 90 74 94 266 150 125 54 42 127 82 92 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 218 59 201 59 401 172 103 338 103 106 136 120 476 101 159 52 85 442 57 115 452 143 83 239 134 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 153 428 107 1522 469 104 457 71 229 100 480 274 200 90 36 2166 92 419 46 298 37 62 153 186 110 213 296 361 79 62 65 191 105 63 2512 85 723 190 212 23 53 137 105 50 969 105 58 123 106 41 56 277 158 121 1362 90 68 257 125 44 108 227 154 135 347 41 156 174 623 105 81 176 445 286 41 188 39 194 138 65 96 198 80 85 67 174 36 25 417 448 80 147 82 407 65 131 557 209 244 167 97 218 110 102 69 181 42 86 73 839 94 79 108 80 66 102 115 248 293 451 131 156 222 94 55 112 144 189 138 197 67 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 172 56 109 46 140 349 90 44 138 123 360 138 51 101 559 151 90 110 120 84 245 329 449 390 227 260 138 117 160 65 154 95 165 42 369 67 115 217 319 264 83 148 431 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 573
Low between peaks 0 -1 -3 -2 -7 0 3 1 -26 5 -11 2 -7 -17 -8 3 -2 9 -1 -30 -13 2 -14 -12 9 3 307 -1 55 -9 -14 17 2 31 -8 31 -4 -5 -39 -11 1 -1 -18 -8 -8 -10 -16 -1 3 3 0 8 2 -17 -6 -64 5 -9 2 -2 3 -1 -7 -11 -11 -3 -9 -14 -3 -6 0 4 -11 -9 1 2 -30 -13 -19 -5 -8 -4 -11 -5 1 -7 0 53 -3 11 1 -28 -14 -4 -48 -3 -6 -3 -7 -3 -6 -12 -2 2 -1 -5 1 -17 -6 -5 0 -4 -80 -12 1 0 -4 0 0 4 1 -7 -5 -8 -7 2 -13 -2 -8 -25 -21 -27 -25 -2 -5 -12 -2 -17 5 2 -1 -8 -12 -19 -9 -1 2 -27 1 -1 12 -5 3 -2 -7 -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -12 -3 27 20 2 -5 40 120 1 -18 0 -9 58 7 -22 0 0 27 1 -45 -13 2 -10 -3 -10 6 5 -15 0 -3 0 0 1 -10 1 15 -14 4 2 8 -5 -12 -3 -7 -6 -7 5 -6 -16 5 1 -7 -3 -7 -4 6 -5 1 6 1 1 3 1 5 -74 37 0 -8 1 -1 -51 -13 -2 1 -20 -4 0 3 0 1 -6 0 -2 0 1 -14 -6 -8 2 -1 -4 -4 -20 -45 3 -6 23 -28 4 -3 -10 -2 -3 -4 -12 -23 3 -5 -4 -7 -11 -5 -1 2 -5 -10 2 -2 -3 -16 -2 -6 -39 -13 -2 1 -1 -4 4 -5 -7 1 -4 -13 -40 3 -9 7 -8 -5 -6 -12 -3 -7 -4 -9 2 -6 -11 -1 1 5 0 -18 -3 1 -18 16 -9 -22 -4 -6 -4 4 -12 -13 -5 1 1 -4 -2 -1 -12 7 6 -36 -9 -5 -68 0 -11 -19 -2 -6 2 1 0 -3 -6 -48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-05 to 2021-09-11

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-09-04 14670 12246 5032 9013 12980 7421 14117 11266 4539 24250 13315 15162 13052 17791 5874 29322 42476 32658 7065 23068 13907 13315 16434 20698 40357 30038 148792 11578 27189 18017 7385 9020 41566 7284 42306 11400 73513 14859 9716 39195 9555 16194 28150 56362 9304 34818 10355 12445 11889 14948 26797 17208 24859 10390 22302 10688 14351 34470 12282 14570 11034 13499 26452 3076 20081 18630 8310 13702 35312 35445 9555 8936 7365 13554 44978 4820 17739 609 7842 6280 8503 38052 5046 65980 38481 4994 12053 44144 14117 13221 14201 6965 8245 29421 5204 22575 40015 22560 10564 38672 8876 15807 43354 11324 5400 9486 11177 8162 13861 11393 8265 7789 10322 32686 13763 13885 9459 10784 4489 11741 37736 16898 8156 12439 11302 12868 8786 8201 12111 26681 14165 10853 5514 8642 25189 13832 77839 11894 6650 13893 8954 31320 11585 6199 31768 17066 7472 20984 8778 29308 11111 13896 28596 7350 14196 9297 10930 34519 11748 11940 9076 10272 36838 10521 9681 33674 13202 12630 7048 10732 3572 10409 23787 14088 9669 11006 33755 17738 53078 25055 38459 15529 105513 51875 7768 32161 10396 11450 12962 72722 28652 18077 5532 4753 84460 13438 34165 4513 6806 8166 22965 5248 5483 11920 19011 12930 21497 8555 29440 6977 6003 3067 15426 10934 12466 41564 13330 45726 15125 20143 12003 5574 9701 19126 10687 9292 41900 15731 4724 18020 24393 7309 10547 25334 31699 12148 46471 14171 7204 36110 212 15804 6062 13938 9676 23389 22690 22875 7127 20934 17180 41435 17787 9005 14502 20708 27385 7555 17327 4608 32827 8955 10209 7165 33058 11038 8139 12524 10535 2850 3418 39014 47237 9531 6209 10149 36439 8846 10599 69630 532 24444 19962 25474 10137 8568 7189 10425 11002 28412 4732 7646 11847 7704 34721 8955 7737 10205 13559 10284 12374 21482 25213 20415 34599 10684 13439 25178 12883 9267 8983 6705 35253 26622 30733 9098 7871 38214 8142 22825 17018 24493 19777 30170 9358 8167 8177 17923 13789 9657 6112 14904 9725 22727 12126 10929 8548 3134 40419 28614 9200 7796 10319 9036 44009 36098 33675 36086 27492 12920 11522 9391 11989 7517 12388 11184 2764 9716 13770 7686 15922 7496 10602 21973 46790 33414 8576 13279 37957 9874 13794 34754 9882 8631 15665 9751 16657 11998 8707 20597
2021-09-05 14760 12250 5051 9031 13020 7500 14200 11350 4539 24430 13370 15250 13090 17850 5899 29390 42590 32750 7077 23090 13970 13370 16520 20770 40610 30120 149200 11640 27220 18060 7422 9062 41630 7304 42470 11430 73730 14910 9770 39330 9579 16260 28280 56620 9351 34930 10410 12480 11950 14960 26860 17270 25010 10440 22370 10690 14390 34470 12320 14690 11060 13590 26570 3099 20090 18670 8364 13790 35530 35640 9586 8973 7405 13600 45560 4820 17810 615 7842 6311 8538 38250 5051 66270 38640 5019 12100 44300 14190 13230 14240 7003 8289 29560 5231 22750 40130 22690 10600 38800 8876 15840 43490 11430 5433 9580 11200 8205 13920 11470 8265 7808 10340 32880 13790 13910 9516 10850 4513 11790 37830 16940 8186 12480 11340 13010 8826 8235 12250 26730 14230 10860 5519 8681 25230 13900 77970 11950 6698 13940 8996 31400 11640 6199 31860 17130 7507 21050 8826 29390 11150 13970 28690 7390 14240 9344 10990 34610 11830 11980 9076 10280 36960 10590 9730 33790 13260 12630 7055 10770 3572 10480 23820 14130 9690 11080 33940 17800 53270 25150 38530 15560 105800 52090 7804 32290 10450 11500 13060 72870 28750 18110 5554 4778 84670 13570 34250 4513 6861 8198 23040 5298 5518 11980 19110 13050 21570 8644 29550 7007 6038 3078 15470 10990 12520 41680 13410 45840 15170 20270 12140 5625 9742 19230 10740 9341 41950 15810 4729 18070 24430 7341 10610 25440 31820 12210 46670 14240 7236 36180 214 15870 6087 13980 9750 23520 22860 22990 7162 20980 17260 41530 17850 9039 14560 20770 27410 7578 17400 4627 32880 8981 10220 7202 33210 11100 8172 12580 10560 2868 3442 39120 47370 9580 6271 10230 36520 8891 10640 69840 533 24590 20010 25570 10230 8676 7219 10490 11050 28550 4771 7680 11910 7726 35260 9001 7773 10270 13610 10350 12420 21560 25320 20480 34700 10730 13510 25260 12940 9315 9021 6717 35400 26710 30860 9150 7937 38370 8180 22900 17060 24490 19780 30230 9382 8201 8230 18030 13800 9710 6147 14970 9762 22740 12150 11020 8590 3144 40510 28690 9215 7828 10320 9090 44100 36170 33770 36240 27580 12980 11580 9443 12020 7531 12420 11180 2794 9720 13830 7725 16100 7548 10630 22040 46850 33550 8626 13350 38030 9910 13850 34880 9920 8666 15730 9780 16680 12030 8745 20670
2021-09-06 14880 12420 5083 9031 13090 7571 14310 11450 4614 24590 13440 15340 13140 17940 5923 29480 42720 32800 7117 23150 14020 13440 16620 20870 40930 30200 149600 11700 27280 18130 7453 9107 41740 7331 42660 11480 73980 14960 9830 39460 9599 16310 28500 56880 9396 35030 10460 12530 12010 14990 26940 17350 25150 10510 22470 10720 14450 34470 12340 14840 11090 13700 26670 3109 20170 18690 8435 13890 35760 35830 9590 9032 7426 13640 46170 4887 17860 618 7885 6338 8599 38610 5087 66600 38800 5045 12160 44490 14240 13280 14280 7028 8353 29710 5257 22970 40300 22870 10650 38930 9047 15950 43630 11540 5482 9680 11390 8255 13970 11550 8302 7833 10480 33030 13860 13980 9568 10920 4543 11850 37940 16980 8210 12500 11410 13200 8865 8271 12480 26980 14290 10890 5546 8703 25290 13960 78190 12020 6751 13980 9034 31510 11720 6214 31980 17200 7527 21150 8875 29490 11190 14030 28750 7428 14280 9391 11060 34680 11940 12020 9107 10430 37070 10640 9770 33900 13340 12660 7203 10790 3572 10580 23880 14190 9730 11150 34150 17880 53480 25210 38640 15610 106200 52290 7847 32410 10480 11550 13100 73100 28810 18160 5566 4808 84910 13670 34340 4530 6909 8230 23120 5376 5552 12040 19250 13190 21630 8769 29670 7041 6070 3078 15470 11050 12600 41790 13490 46010 15230 20410 12280 5698 9779 19320 10800 9413 42570 15890 4751 18160 24500 7354 10640 25540 31970 12290 46850 14300 7270 36280 215 15950 6128 14010 9830 23650 23080 23140 7213 21030 17320 41630 17900 9067 14630 20910 27510 7610 17480 4649 32960 8993 10240 7251 33340 11190 8215 12650 10590 2882 3476 39250 47520 9615 6331 10420 36630 8924 10660 70110 545 24780 20060 25680 10330 8816 7249 10550 11090 28720 4826 7708 12000 7726 35760 9044 7796 10330 13670 10430 12470 21600 25470 20560 34850 10760 13550 25340 13000 9367 9065 6764 35510 26760 30960 9190 7983 38530 8228 23000 17110 24530 19840 30350 9416 8222 8338 18080 13840 9760 6181 15110 9779 22790 12190 11170 8623 3166 40620 28790 9256 7849 10340 9142 44260 36280 33860 36390 27680 13030 11640 9509 12080 7566 12470 11230 2842 9730 13860 7778 16310 7591 10680 22130 46980 33780 8686 13430 38150 9960 13870 35010 9960 8726 15810 9820 16730 12090 8782 20790
2021-09-07 15030 12610 5109 9031 13150 7644 14410 11540 4695 24760 13500 15430 13190 18050 5947 29550 42850 32860 7162 23230 14080 13500 16700 20950 41220 30280 150000 11760 27320 18230 7486 9150 41850 7365 42890 11540 74250 15010 9890 39600 9621 16360 28670 57190 9453 35130 10520 12580 12060 15040 27030 17460 25290 10570 22550 10770 14520 34500 12360 14980 11110 13790 26780 3125 20290 18710 8498 13980 35990 36020 9608 9081 7455 13690 46790 4951 17920 622 7973 6367 8654 38880 5130 66950 38960 5070 12220 44660 14300 13330 14320 7059 8432 29850 5284 23160 40500 23080 10690 39100 9191 16090 43790 11640 5523 9790 11550 8324 14020 11620 8355 7870 10620 33200 13920 14080 9628 10980 4570 11900 38050 17030 8236 12530 11460 13390 8926 8315 12660 27280 14360 10950 5600 8732 25380 14020 78600 12090 6801 14020 9074 31610 11790 6243 32080 17260 7553 21230 8920 29580 11230 14090 28830 7466 14310 9448 11130 34760 12030 12060 9165 10640 37180 10700 9820 34020 13430 12690 7331 10820 3578 10670 23930 14250 9800 11220 34340 17950 53670 25280 38780 15680 106700 52540 7886 32530 10520 11600 13170 73370 28890 18240 5582 4834 85200 13780 34430 4565 6961 8262 23200 5439 5586 12100 19360 13310 21690 8881 29790 7072 6104 3078 15470 11110 12670 41910 13570 46150 15330 20550 12420 5760 9817 19410 10850 9473 43180 15960 4778 18290 24610 7376 10680 25640 32110 12360 47060 14360 7303 36390 217 16020 6208 14040 9900 23820 23280 23280 7288 21100 17390 41730 17950 9098 14690 21100 27710 7638 17550 4669 33040 9012 10270 7294 33480 11260 8253 12710 10640 2897 3504 39390 47700 9656 6391 10550 36790 8963 10690 70400 555 24940 20120 25780 10420 8938 7278 10620 11140 28870 4874 7739 12070 7732 36220 9087 7825 10390 13720 10500 12530 21650 25610 20630 34980 10790 13610 25440 13050 9417 9105 6817 35640 26830 31070 9235 8037 38690 8272 23080 17160 24650 19950 30490 9459 8248 8418 18150 13880 9810 6232 15220 9805 22860 12250 11290 8680 3182 40720 28920 9324 7874 10420 9194 44460 36420 33950 36540 27790 13080 11700 9567 12170 7603 12530 11330 2881 9810 13900 7824 16490 7637 10760 22210 47130 34070 8741 13510 38310 10000 13910 35170 10000 8774 15870 9880 16830 12140 8820 20890
2021-09-08 15180 12780 5130 9031 13200 7716 14500 11630 4779 24920 13570 15510 13240 18150 5971 29620 42990 32940 7214 23300 14140 13560 16790 21030 41480 30360 150500 11810 27380 18310 7520 9192 41940 7386 43070 11600 74500 15050 9940 39730 9643 16430 28820 57480 9510 35240 10570 12620 12110 15070 27120 17550 25410 10620 22620 10810 14580 34580 12400 15110 11140 13890 26890 3144 20400 18750 8555 14060 36210 36200 9630 9124 7488 13730 47410 5013 17980 627 8062 6396 8716 39110 5165 67240 39120 5094 12270 44820 14360 13390 14360 7091 8500 29990 5309 23340 40680 23270 10730 39250 9322 16210 43930 11740 5559 9880 11740 8385 14080 11700 8410 7906 10750 33370 13980 14170 9671 11050 4595 11950 38140 17080 8262 12570 11510 13570 8988 8375 12820 27660 14430 10990 5635 8764 25450 14090 79490 12150 6848 14060 9113 31700 11850 6280 32180 17330 7582 21310 8962 29660 11260 14160 28910 7505 14360 9500 11200 34850 12120 12100 9214 10880 37300 10760 9870 34140 13510 12720 7447 10860 3598 10750 23970 14290 9870 11280 34530 18020 53860 25360 38890 15750 107200 52750 7923 32640 10570 11650 13240 73650 28980 18320 5600 4860 85480 13870 34520 4595 7012 8296 23270 5495 5620 12160 19470 13410 21750 9000 29900 7102 6138 3078 15470 11170 12740 42020 13650 46280 15430 20670 12550 5817 9855 19520 10900 9526 43850 16040 4806 18390 24720 7401 10730 25760 32260 12420 47220 14420 7335 36500 218 16090 6253 14070 9970 23940 23470 23400 7358 21180 17470 41820 18010 9129 14750 21330 27910 7662 17630 4688 33130 9033 10300 7334 33620 11320 8288 12770 10680 2913 3531 39530 47860 9699 6451 10670 36930 9003 10730 70670 565 25090 20200 25880 10510 9050 7307 10680 11180 29020 4918 7771 12140 7748 36690 9131 7856 10450 13770 10570 12600 21710 25720 20700 35100 10830 13670 25530 13110 9465 9144 6881 35770 26910 31180 9281 8095 38840 8313 23160 17200 24840 20030 30630 9495 8277 8484 18230 13940 9860 6280 15300 9835 22940 12310 11390 8728 3195 40820 29040 9392 7902 10510 9247 44670 36570 34040 36670 27900 13130 11750 9621 12240 7651 12580 11400 2915 9900 13950 7866 16670 7684 10830 22280 47260 34340 8793 13590 38450 10040 13950 35330 10030 8816 15940 9920 16930 12190 8857 20980
2021-09-09 15360 13000 5151 9039 13250 7788 14580 11710 4873 25100 13620 15600 13290 18240 5994 29700 43110 33020 7255 23350 14200 13610 16880 21100 41740 30440 150900 11870 27430 18430 7555 9234 42050 7406 43230 11650 74720 15100 9990 39850 9666 16490 28960 57780 9560 35350 10620 12650 12160 15100 27190 17650 25510 10670 22700 10850 14630 34670 12430 15240 11160 13980 27000 3165 20500 18790 8611 14150 36400 36380 9655 9167 7522 13770 48040 5076 18050 632 8146 6425 8775 39330 5211 67530 39290 5118 12320 44970 14420 13450 14400 7124 8582 30120 5335 23510 40850 23450 10770 39380 9450 16360 44080 11840 5594 9960 11920 8437 14130 11770 8496 7942 10880 33550 14030 14260 9714 11110 4620 12000 38240 17130 8288 12610 11560 13740 9049 8432 12970 28050 14490 11030 5672 8798 25520 14150 80190 12210 6896 14110 9153 31790 11910 6334 32280 17390 7611 21380 9003 29740 11300 14230 28990 7544 14400 9551 11260 34930 12200 12140 9274 11040 37410 10820 9910 34230 13600 12750 7559 10890 3620 10830 24010 14340 9930 11330 34720 18080 54050 25440 39030 15800 107600 52940 7960 32750 10610 11700 13320 73920 29060 18370 5618 4885 85750 13950 34600 4615 7064 8330 23340 5550 5653 12220 19580 13510 21820 9105 30010 7133 6172 3086 15490 11230 12800 42130 13720 46400 15520 20800 12680 5872 9894 19590 10950 9578 44460 16110 4834 18490 24820 7427 10790 25870 32380 12480 47390 14490 7366 36610 220 16160 6316 14110 10040 24060 23650 23530 7418 21240 17540 41920 18070 9161 14810 21540 28120 7687 17700 4707 33230 9055 10320 7373 33770 11390 8322 12820 10710 2929 3556 39660 48000 9743 6510 10770 37060 9045 10760 70920 574 25240 20260 25980 10590 9159 7337 10740 11230 29160 4961 7803 12200 7766 37140 9174 7888 10510 13820 10640 12640 21770 25830 20770 35210 10860 13730 25620 13160 9512 9182 6938 35900 26990 31300 9328 8153 39000 8353 23240 17240 25000 20110 30780 9540 8306 8546 18320 13970 9910 6315 15390 9866 23010 12370 11480 8789 3208 40910 29160 9439 7930 10610 9300 44850 36710 34120 36800 27980 13190 11810 9673 12300 7682 12630 11500 2948 10030 13990 7907 16840 7731 10910 22350 47400 34610 8844 13660 38610 10080 14000 35470 10070 8856 16000 9960 17010 12260 8894 21060
2021-09-10 15490 13160 5170 9059 13310 7861 14670 11790 4938 25270 13670 15650 13330 18330 6018 29760 43250 33110 7289 23410 14260 13660 16970 21170 41990 30510 151300 11930 27470 18520 7590 9276 42120 7432 43410 11700 74880 15140 10030 39940 9689 16560 29090 58010 9603 35460 10670 12690 12220 15130 27260 17720 25600 10710 22770 10880 14680 34760 12470 15370 11190 14070 27110 3188 20600 18830 8664 14230 36550 36570 9683 9206 7558 13810 48490 5138 18110 637 8221 6454 8835 39540 5249 67800 39460 5142 12360 45120 14490 13510 14430 7159 8639 30250 5361 23680 41000 23590 10810 39530 9571 16470 44220 11940 5627 10020 12060 8478 14180 11840 8546 7968 11010 33730 14080 14360 9753 11180 4644 12060 38330 17180 8315 12660 11600 13880 9103 8473 13120 28350 14560 11070 5715 8834 25580 14210 80780 12270 6942 14150 9193 31870 11960 6353 32370 17460 7643 21440 9041 29810 11330 14300 29080 7583 14440 9606 11320 35020 12280 12180 9342 11180 37530 10880 9960 34320 13690 12780 7666 10930 3629 10900 24050 14380 9990 11380 34900 18140 54240 25530 39130 15850 107900 53100 7996 32830 10660 11750 13410 74140 29160 18430 5638 4909 85950 14010 34690 4640 7118 8364 23410 5601 5687 12280 19680 13610 21890 9180 30110 7163 6206 3097 15530 11280 12860 42250 13800 46520 15600 20930 12820 5925 9932 19650 11010 9627 44970 16190 4864 18600 24920 7455 10840 25950 32520 12540 47500 14550 7397 36700 221 16220 6358 14140 10100 24170 23830 23650 7480 21280 17610 42010 18130 9194 14870 21730 28270 7710 17770 4725 33300 9078 10340 7412 33920 11440 8355 12870 10750 2946 3581 39760 48130 9789 6570 10870 37190 9088 10800 71170 582 25390 20330 26070 10660 9264 7366 10800 11280 29300 5003 7837 12270 7788 37520 9218 7922 10570 13860 10710 12690 21850 25940 20830 35310 10900 13800 25680 13220 9560 9219 6991 36040 27070 31420 9377 8215 39150 8392 23320 17290 25070 20210 30910 9576 8337 8602 18410 14020 9960 6355 15460 9900 23080 12420 11570 8829 3220 41010 29270 9494 7959 10710 9353 45000 36860 34210 36890 28060 13240 11860 9723 12360 7718 12680 11580 2979 10130 14050 7945 17010 7779 10990 22410 47510 34820 8895 13730 38750 10120 14050 35590 10100 8894 16050 9990 17080 12320 8931 21140
2021-09-11 15590 13280 5189 9081 13350 7935 14750 11870 4985 25450 13700 15700 13370 18390 6042 29830 43330 33200 7313 23450 14320 13720 17050 21240 42230 30590 151600 11990 27510 18590 7625 9317 42190 7448 43550 11740 75040 15190 10070 40010 9713 16630 29220 58170 9637 35570 10730 12720 12260 15160 27300 17790 25670 10760 22840 10930 14700 34820 12510 15490 11210 14160 27230 3211 20680 18870 8717 14320 36680 36750 9712 9244 7595 13850 48770 5200 18180 643 8254 6484 8887 39730 5285 68030 39580 5166 12410 45270 14560 13550 14470 7194 8670 30380 5387 23840 41140 23700 10850 39660 9691 16580 44300 12040 5660 10080 12150 8518 14240 11900 8640 7997 11140 33910 14120 14420 9785 11240 4668 12110 38420 17210 8343 12700 11640 14020 9145 8516 13260 28630 14620 11100 5739 8870 25660 14280 81620 12320 6989 14200 9233 31950 12020 6383 32460 17530 7676 21510 9079 29890 11370 14380 29160 7622 14480 9635 11380 35100 12360 12220 9383 11280 37640 10950 10010 34390 13750 12800 7771 10960 3648 10970 24080 14430 10030 11420 35080 18200 54420 25610 39210 15910 108100 53240 8032 32900 10700 11790 13490 74320 29250 18470 5658 4933 86100 14050 34770 4657 7171 8398 23480 5651 5721 12330 19780 13700 21960 9256 30220 7192 6241 3110 15570 11340 12910 42360 13880 46630 15650 21050 12950 5977 9971 19700 11060 9675 45350 16260 4882 18690 25020 7485 10900 26000 32630 12600 47600 14610 7427 36770 223 16280 6382 14180 10170 24280 24000 23770 7504 21330 17690 42100 18190 9227 14930 21920 28330 7732 17840 4743 33370 9102 10350 7449 34070 11500 8387 12930 10780 2963 3605 39850 48240 9835 6630 10960 37290 9132 10840 71360 590 25530 20380 26170 10710 9367 7395 10860 11320 29440 5043 7870 12330 7811 37810 9263 7956 10640 13910 10780 12730 21920 26040 20890 35410 10940 13860 25740 13280 9607 9256 7043 36180 27160 31550 9426 8277 39300 8431 23400 17330 25140 20310 30990 9607 8368 8656 18500 14070 10020 6376 15530 9935 23130 12450 11660 8841 3231 41100 29350 9526 7989 10730 9407 45120 36970 34300 36960 28130 13300 11920 9773 12400 7745 12720 11660 3009 10290 14100 7984 17170 7828 11030 22480 47620 35000 8944 13810 38860 10150 14100 35690 10130 8930 16110 10020 17130 12350 8969 21210

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-05 to 2021-09-11

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-09-04 14670 12246 5032 9013 12980 7421 14117 11266 4539 24250 13315 15162 13052 17791 5874 29322 42476 32658 7065 23068 13907 13315 16434 20698 40357 30038 148792 11578 27189 18017 7385 9020 41566 7284 42306 11400 73513 14859 9716 39195 9555 16194 28150 56362 9304 34818 10355 12445 11889 14948 26797 17208 24859 10390 22302 10688 14351 34470 12282 14570 11034 13499 26452 3076 20081 18630 8310 13702 35312 35445 9555 8936 7365 13554 44978 4820 17739 609 7842 6280 8503 38052 5046 65980 38481 4994 12053 44144 14117 13221 14201 6965 8245 29421 5204 22575 40015 22560 10564 38672 8876 15807 43354 11324 5400 9486 11177 8162 13861 11393 8265 7789 10322 32686 13763 13885 9459 10784 4489 11741 37736 16898 8156 12439 11302 12868 8786 8201 12111 26681 14165 10853 5514 8642 25189 13832 77839 11894 6650 13893 8954 31320 11585 6199 31768 17066 7472 20984 8778 29308 11111 13896 28596 7350 14196 9297 10930 34519 11748 11940 9076 10272 36838 10521 9681 33674 13202 12630 7048 10732 3572 10409 23787 14088 9669 11006 33755 17738 53078 25055 38459 15529 105513 51875 7768 32161 10396 11450 12962 72722 28652 18077 5532 4753 84460 13438 34165 4513 6806 8166 22965 5248 5483 11920 19011 12930 21497 8555 29440 6977 6003 3067 15426 10934 12466 41564 13330 45726 15125 20143 12003 5574 9701 19126 10687 9292 41900 15731 4724 18020 24393 7309 10547 25334 31699 12148 46471 14171 7204 36110 212 15804 6062 13938 9676 23389 22690 22875 7127 20934 17180 41435 17787 9005 14502 20708 27385 7555 17327 4608 32827 8955 10209 7165 33058 11038 8139 12524 10535 2850 3418 39014 47237 9531 6209 10149 36439 8846 10599 69630 532 24444 19962 25474 10137 8568 7189 10425 11002 28412 4732 7646 11847 7704 34721 8955 7737 10205 13559 10284 12374 21482 25213 20415 34599 10684 13439 25178 12883 9267 8983 6705 35253 26622 30733 9098 7871 38214 8142 22825 17018 24493 19777 30170 9358 8167 8177 17923 13789 9657 6112 14904 9725 22727 12126 10929 8548 3134 40419 28614 9200 7796 10319 9036 44009 36098 33675 36086 27492 12920 11522 9391 11989 7517 12388 11184 2764 9716 13770 7686 15922 7496 10602 21973 46790 33414 8576 13279 37957 9874 13794 34754 9882 8631 15665 9751 16657 11998 8707 20597
2021-09-05 14800 12400 5047 9063 13020 7498 14200 11340 4618 24420 13360 15220 13090 17870 5898 29380 42600 32790 7093 23120 13960 13370 16510 20760 40560 30100 149100 11640 27230 18100 7419 9059 41650 7301 42440 11440 73700 14890 9760 39280 9576 16260 28260 56560 9346 34920 10400 12480 11940 14980 26860 17300 24960 10430 22360 10740 14390 34600 12320 14680 11050 13590 26570 3104 20160 18690 8361 13760 35450 35620 9600 8976 7405 13590 45450 4883 17810 615 7891 6309 8563 38380 5080 66200 38640 5018 12090 44300 14190 13270 14240 7001 8293 29550 5229 22750 40170 22680 10600 38820 8984 15940 43470 11420 5429 9550 11310 8197 13910 11460 8347 7822 10460 32860 13810 13950 9494 10840 4508 11790 37820 16940 8189 12510 11370 13030 8846 8249 12250 26980 14220 10880 5543 8675 25280 13890 78560 11950 6701 13930 8994 31400 11630 6254 31840 17130 7504 21050 8823 29380 11150 13970 28680 7385 14240 9339 10980 34610 11810 11980 9130 10440 36950 10590 9724 33760 13290 12650 7175 10770 3597 10470 23850 14130 9720 11050 33920 17790 53250 25140 38540 15590 105800 52020 7801 32250 10440 11500 13060 72920 28750 18130 5554 4776 84630 13510 34240 4533 6860 8208 23040 5292 5517 11970 19110 13010 21570 8654 29540 7005 6026 3091 15530 10990 12510 41680 13400 45820 15200 20270 12160 5618 9740 19190 10730 9336 42410 15810 4743 18120 24480 7340 10600 25410 31830 12200 46610 14230 7238 36190 213 15860 6112 13970 9740 23480 22850 22990 7163 20980 17250 41530 17850 9038 14550 20960 27460 7579 17390 4627 32900 8982 10230 7190 33210 11090 8167 12570 10570 2865 3442 39120 47340 9572 6271 10220 36550 8887 10640 69870 541 24580 20010 25570 10200 8681 7217 10480 11050 28540 4776 7678 11900 7742 35170 8998 7771 10260 13600 10360 12420 21560 25300 20470 34670 10720 13500 25240 12940 9308 9018 6792 35390 26700 30840 9147 7933 38360 8173 22900 17060 24620 19890 30270 9397 8201 8235 18030 13830 9710 6145 14950 9761 22780 12170 11010 8577 3165 40500 28700 9244 7826 10370 9084 44130 36220 33760 36180 27580 12970 11570 9448 12040 7548 12430 11250 2791 9840 13820 7724 16100 7542 10660 22030 46910 33620 8618 13360 38070 9900 13860 34870 9910 8657 15710 9790 16720 12040 8752 20670
2021-09-06 14940 12570 5067 9114 13070 7573 14290 11430 4728 24580 13420 15300 13140 17960 5921 29450 42730 32920 7127 23180 14020 13420 16610 20840 40810 30160 149600 11690 27280 18180 7452 9100 41750 7320 42600 11490 73920 14930 9810 39400 9597 16320 28380 56810 9388 35020 10440 12510 12000 15010 26940 17420 25080 10470 22430 10800 14430 34760 12350 14800 11070 13680 26670 3135 20250 18730 8414 13820 35640 35800 9634 9031 7438 13630 46040 4946 17870 620 7960 6339 8621 38800 5115 66490 38800 5044 12150 44460 14250 13320 14270 7033 8359 29690 5253 22920 40360 22850 10630 38960 9129 16100 43600 11540 5460 9640 11510 8248 13960 11530 8448 7855 10610 33020 13870 14030 9535 10900 4531 11840 37910 16990 8212 12580 11440 13200 8898 8302 12410 27310 14280 10920 5579 8706 25370 13950 79470 12000 6745 13970 9033 31470 11680 6330 31910 17190 7535 21120 8874 29450 11180 14040 28750 7425 14280 9388 11040 34690 11900 12020 9180 10620 37070 10650 9769 33870 13370 12680 7316 10820 3626 10540 23910 14170 9780 11120 34080 17850 53460 25220 38660 15640 106200 52210 7837 32340 10490 11540 13130 73160 28820 18190 5570 4803 84850 13590 34330 4555 6916 8256 23100 5347 5549 12030 19220 13110 21640 8770 29650 7033 6061 3117 15640 11040 12570 41790 13480 45920 15280 20400 12310 5671 9778 19260 10780 9386 43020 15870 4770 18210 24570 7366 10660 25500 31960 12260 46780 14290 7271 36280 215 15920 6195 14000 9820 23590 23050 23110 7221 21040 17320 41620 17910 9070 14620 21230 27590 7604 17450 4645 32980 9004 10250 7224 33380 11160 8197 12620 10600 2881 3474 39240 47470 9620 6344 10320 36680 8929 10670 70120 549 24730 20060 25670 10280 8804 7247 10540 11100 28680 4831 7712 11980 7777 35670 9044 7802 10320 13650 10450 12470 21620 25410 20540 34770 10750 13560 25320 13000 9354 9053 6878 35530 26790 30940 9192 7998 38500 8214 22980 17100 24840 20000 30400 9433 8230 8318 18120 13870 9760 6181 15030 9789 22840 12220 11090 8613 3209 40560 28790 9293 7853 10430 9134 44280 36350 33840 36300 27670 13020 11600 9505 12100 7581 12480 11330 2823 9990 13860 7768 16310 7581 10720 22100 47030 33870 8665 13430 38200 9930 13940 34980 9950 8696 15770 9830 16770 12100 8793 20750
2021-09-07 15100 12750 5087 9167 13120 7651 14380 11510 4832 24750 13480 15380 13190 18060 5945 29520 42850 33060 7163 23240 14080 13480 16730 20910 41070 30220 150000 11750 27340 18260 7485 9148 41850 7344 42770 11540 74160 14980 9860 39520 9618 16400 28490 57100 9436 35130 10500 12550 12060 15050 27020 17540 25200 10520 22500 10850 14480 34930 12390 14930 11090 13770 26780 3171 20350 18780 8469 13880 35830 36000 9672 9082 7474 13670 46630 5011 17940 626 8052 6370 8675 39180 5151 66820 38970 5069 12200 44620 14320 13380 14310 7065 8430 29840 5277 23100 40550 23030 10670 39120 9268 16260 43750 11640 5490 9730 11680 8313 14000 11600 8549 7896 10770 33180 13930 14110 9587 10970 4554 11890 38000 17030 8237 12660 11500 13390 8959 8354 12550 27670 14350 10970 5628 8742 25470 14010 80350 12050 6791 14010 9071 31540 11730 6406 31990 17250 7567 21190 8928 29520 11210 14130 28820 7467 14320 9441 11100 34770 12000 12060 9241 10830 37190 10710 9817 33980 13460 12710 7449 10870 3655 10600 23980 14220 9840 11190 34250 17910 53670 25310 38780 15700 106600 52450 7873 32440 10530 11590 13210 73410 28900 18270 5588 4835 85100 13680 34420 4582 6973 8310 23170 5397 5582 12080 19320 13200 21710 8877 29750 7061 6106 3144 15750 11100 12630 41900 13560 46020 15380 20520 12460 5720 9817 19340 10840 9433 43640 15950 4799 18330 24680 7393 10710 25590 32090 12310 46950 14360 7302 36380 217 15990 6294 14040 9890 23740 23240 23230 7295 21100 17390 41700 17970 9103 14690 21500 27810 7627 17530 4662 33070 9028 10270 7264 33560 11220 8230 12670 10640 2899 3504 39370 47620 9673 6416 10410 36830 8973 10700 70380 557 24880 20110 25770 10360 8917 7277 10600 11150 28820 4882 7748 12050 7814 36130 9090 7837 10390 13700 10540 12520 21690 25520 20600 34880 10790 13630 25410 13060 9403 9088 6964 35670 26880 31060 9243 8069 38650 8261 23060 17150 25080 20120 30540 9472 8261 8396 18220 13910 9810 6227 15100 9820 22910 12280 11180 8655 3248 40640 28890 9356 7882 10510 9192 44450 36500 33920 36420 27760 13060 11640 9557 12180 7616 12530 11440 2851 10130 13910 7809 16500 7630 10810 22170 47160 34150 8716 13510 38360 9970 14030 35120 9980 8733 15830 9880 16850 12150 8838 20830
2021-09-08 15260 12910 5106 9220 13170 7726 14460 11590 4936 24910 13550 15460 13250 18150 5968 29590 42980 33200 7200 23310 14140 13530 16830 20980 41320 30280 150400 11810 27400 18350 7519 9193 41950 7362 42930 11600 74380 15020 9920 39630 9641 16480 28600 57380 9485 35240 10550 12580 12110 15090 27110 17650 25310 10560 22570 10910 14530 35130 12430 15070 11120 13870 26890 3205 20450 18830 8524 13940 36050 36200 9710 9129 7510 13710 47220 5076 18010 633 8140 6399 8737 39550 5187 67110 39120 5093 12250 44780 14390 13440 14340 7096 8498 29970 5301 23270 40720 23210 10700 39270 9393 16410 43890 11750 5520 9810 11860 8370 14050 11670 8645 7936 10920 33350 13990 14200 9623 11030 4577 11940 38090 17080 8262 12730 11570 13560 9022 8421 12690 28040 14420 11000 5667 8780 25560 14060 81330 12100 6837 14050 9110 31610 11770 6482 32070 17310 7601 21250 8982 29590 11240 14210 28890 7508 14360 9492 11160 34860 12090 12100 9297 11070 37310 10780 9866 34100 13550 12730 7581 10910 3685 10670 24040 14260 9900 11250 34400 17970 53860 25400 38900 15770 107000 52650 7909 32530 10580 11630 13290 73680 28990 18350 5607 4858 85360 13770 34510 4608 7030 8361 23230 5445 5615 12130 19420 13290 21780 8987 29860 7090 6148 3171 15850 11160 12680 42020 13640 46120 15470 20650 12610 5768 9855 19420 10890 9480 44310 16020 4829 18430 24790 7421 10770 25680 32220 12370 47100 14420 7334 36480 218 16050 6372 14070 9970 23840 23420 23340 7363 21170 17470 41790 18040 9136 14750 21810 28000 7650 17590 4680 33150 9052 10300 7300 33740 11280 8261 12720 10670 2918 3533 39500 47750 9720 6489 10500 36970 9019 10740 70640 565 25020 20160 25870 10440 9031 7308 10670 11200 28960 4932 7784 12120 7853 36600 9141 7873 10450 13750 10630 12580 21770 25630 20660 34980 10820 13690 25490 13110 9450 9123 7054 35820 26970 31170 9294 8130 38790 8306 23140 17190 25350 20230 30680 9507 8293 8476 18320 13950 9860 6271 15160 9853 22980 12330 11260 8693 3281 40710 28970 9418 7909 10610 9245 44630 36640 34020 36530 27860 13110 11670 9608 12240 7653 12580 11530 2876 10290 13960 7849 16690 7679 10880 22230 47270 34410 8765 13580 38510 10000 14120 35260 10020 8763 15890 9910 16920 12200 8883 20910
2021-09-09 15430 13110 5124 9274 13220 7805 14540 11670 5045 25080 13600 15530 13290 18250 5992 29660 43090 33320 7235 23360 14200 13590 16930 21050 41580 30340 150900 11870 27440 18440 7553 9236 42050 7382 43070 11650 74590 15050 9970 39750 9664 16560 28710 57680 9531 35350 10590 12620 12170 15120 27180 17760 25420 10610 22630 10970 14580 35300 12470 15190 11130 13960 27000 3241 20550 18880 8576 13990 36230 36390 9750 9180 7545 13750 47840 5139 18080 639 8225 6432 8796 39900 5225 67390 39300 5117 12290 44930 14450 13500 14380 7128 8573 30110 5325 23460 40880 23380 10740 39410 9532 16570 44040 11870 5550 9900 12070 8421 14100 11740 8747 7973 11070 33500 14040 14290 9665 11100 4601 11990 38180 17130 8282 12810 11630 13730 9081 8483 12820 28460 14480 11040 5707 8821 25650 14120 82290 12150 6883 14090 9148 31680 11810 6561 32150 17370 7636 21310 9025 29650 11270 14290 28960 7549 14400 9543 11210 34950 12180 12140 9354 11250 37430 10840 9907 34200 13640 12760 7712 10960 3716 10730 24100 14300 9960 11310 34560 18030 54050 25490 39020 15810 107400 52850 7944 32610 10630 11680 13370 73930 29070 18410 5627 4885 85610 13850 34600 4632 7084 8411 23300 5492 5648 12190 19520 13380 21850 9096 29960 7119 6189 3195 15960 11220 12740 42130 13720 46220 15570 20770 12760 5815 9893 19480 10940 9525 45010 16090 4856 18530 24890 7450 10830 25780 32340 12420 47250 14480 7365 36570 220 16120 6458 14100 10040 23960 23600 23460 7428 21230 17540 41870 18100 9170 14810 22110 28180 7672 17660 4697 33260 9076 10320 7342 33890 11330 8292 12770 10710 2935 3559 39630 47860 9770 6564 10580 37100 9065 10770 70890 571 25160 20210 25970 10520 9146 7338 10730 11240 29100 4980 7819 12180 7893 37110 9187 7909 10520 13790 10720 12620 21840 25730 20720 35070 10850 13760 25580 13170 9498 9158 7137 35970 27060 31270 9341 8203 38930 8347 23220 17240 25570 20350 30830 9546 8324 8551 18420 13990 9910 6309 15210 9887 23060 12390 11350 8734 3321 40770 29070 9462 7937 10700 9296 44770 36780 34100 36650 27940 13160 11710 9657 12300 7687 12630 11630 2901 10440 14010 7888 16880 7726 10950 22300 47380 34670 8808 13660 38660 10030 14200 35380 10060 8802 15950 9950 16990 12260 8925 20980
2021-09-10 15560 13270 5140 9331 13260 7878 14630 11760 5139 25230 13660 15580 13340 18340 6016 29730 43210 33460 7265 23410 14260 13640 17030 21120 41820 30390 151300 11920 27490 18530 7588 9277 42130 7403 43210 11700 74790 15090 10020 39850 9688 16640 28820 57930 9571 35460 10630 12650 12220 15150 27250 17860 25530 10650 22690 11020 14620 35490 12510 15320 11150 14050 27110 3276 20620 18930 8628 14050 36400 36580 9790 9224 7581 13790 48390 5201 18150 646 8299 6463 8855 40350 5263 67650 39460 5142 12340 45080 14520 13550 14420 7162 8634 30250 5350 23620 41010 23530 10780 39560 9672 16720 44180 11980 5579 9960 12280 8467 14140 11810 8846 8004 11220 33660 14090 14370 9702 11160 4624 12040 38270 17170 8302 12870 11690 13890 9136 8533 12940 28750 14550 11080 5745 8856 25740 14180 83220 12210 6930 14140 9187 31740 11850 6634 32230 17430 7671 21380 9063 29720 11310 14360 29030 7590 14450 9595 11270 35030 12250 12180 9408 11430 37550 10910 9950 34300 13730 12790 7843 11000 3745 10790 24160 14340 10020 11370 34710 18090 54230 25580 39120 15850 107800 53040 7979 32700 10680 11720 13460 74160 29150 18460 5645 4907 85820 13920 34670 4656 7136 8463 23360 5539 5681 12240 19620 13470 21930 9193 30070 7149 6219 3224 16070 11270 12780 42250 13790 46320 15650 20890 12910 5863 9931 19550 10990 9571 45610 16170 4880 18640 24990 7480 10880 25860 32470 12480 47400 14550 7396 36660 222 16180 6536 14130 10110 24070 23790 23570 7478 21280 17620 41960 18170 9204 14870 22380 28310 7694 17720 4715 33320 9097 10340 7375 34030 11390 8319 12820 10750 2954 3584 39730 47960 9821 6630 10660 37230 9111 10810 71140 579 25310 20260 26070 10590 9259 7368 10790 11290 29230 5029 7854 12250 7934 37580 9228 7941 10580 13840 10810 12660 21920 25840 20790 35150 10890 13830 25650 13230 9545 9194 7217 36120 27150 31370 9390 8268 39070 8383 23290 17280 25790 20470 30940 9578 8356 8620 18520 14030 9970 6347 15270 9923 23110 12430 11420 8769 3353 40830 29140 9520 7964 10780 9348 44870 36910 34190 36750 28030 13200 11750 9705 12350 7720 12680 11710 2926 10610 14050 7927 17060 7767 11010 22370 47450 34890 8849 13730 38790 10050 14280 35480 10100 8836 16010 9980 17050 12310 8970 21060
2021-09-11 15670 13410 5156 9389 13300 7951 14710 11840 5212 25390 13710 15630 13380 18410 6039 29790 43290 33590 7289 23450 14310 13700 17110 21180 42030 30440 151700 11980 27540 18620 7622 9320 42200 7419 43340 11740 74990 15120 10070 39950 9712 16720 28930 58130 9611 35580 10680 12680 12280 15180 27310 17980 25630 10690 22750 11080 14660 35670 12550 15440 11170 14140 27230 3311 20680 18980 8679 14100 36550 36760 9831 9267 7613 13820 48790 5262 18220 653 8356 6491 8908 40680 5300 67870 39600 5166 12380 45230 14590 13590 14460 7189 8691 30360 5374 23790 41130 23660 10820 39690 9783 16860 44290 12080 5609 10030 12420 8515 14190 11880 8943 8032 11360 33820 14140 14450 9732 11220 4648 12100 38360 17220 8318 12940 11750 14030 9184 8574 13070 29050 14620 11110 5773 8888 25840 14230 84120 12260 6978 14180 9226 31810 11900 6706 32310 17480 7706 21440 9103 29770 11340 14420 29100 7632 14490 9636 11320 35100 12310 12220 9452 11580 37670 10960 9992 34390 13800 12810 7960 11040 3775 10850 24230 14380 10070 11420 34850 18150 54400 25670 39200 15880 108000 53190 8013 32780 10730 11770 13530 74350 29240 18500 5664 4927 85980 14000 34740 4677 7186 8512 23430 5586 5715 12290 19720 13550 22000 9280 30180 7178 6248 3249 16160 11330 12820 42350 13860 46410 15720 21010 13050 5910 9968 19600 11030 9616 46100 16240 4894 18720 25070 7509 10930 25950 32580 12530 47520 14600 7427 36740 224 16240 6608 14150 10170 24150 23960 23670 7515 21330 17700 42040 18240 9239 14920 22610 28410 7716 17770 4733 33380 9119 10360 7410 34150 11450 8345 12870 10780 2971 3605 39840 48030 9866 6696 10730 37350 9158 10850 71360 588 25450 20300 26160 10660 9363 7398 10840 11340 29370 5077 7885 12310 7975 37950 9267 7977 10640 13880 10890 12690 21990 25930 20850 35220 10920 13900 25710 13290 9589 9230 7282 36250 27240 31460 9434 8326 39220 8413 23370 17320 25970 20590 31050 9606 8387 8679 18600 14070 10020 6379 15320 9958 23160 12470 11490 8797 3379 40870 29190 9556 7989 10830 9392 44940 37040 34270 36840 28100 13250 11790 9754 12390 7752 12720 11780 2950 10770 14090 7966 17220 7807 11040 22430 47510 35110 8889 13800 38900 10080 14360 35570 10130 8869 16070 10010 17110 12350 9016 21130

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.