COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-09-12 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-09-12

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-09-12

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-09-0112-272021-07-082021-07-062021-07-062021-08-312021-07-11 --2021-08-242021-08-232021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-082021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-122021-07-0712-29 --12-272021-07-0812-072021-07-072021-05-102021-07-062021-01-012021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-302021-07-072021-07-072021-08-302021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-07-072021-07-062021-09-012021-07-072021-07-282021-07-082021-08-312021-06-202021-08-232021-07-072021-08-312021-07-072021-08-082021-07-072021-08-292021-08-302021-07-062021-08-052021-08-282021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-292021-08-292021-07-072021-07-272021-08-312021-07-062021-08-302021-08-092021-07-072021-07-022021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-07-082021-07-072021-07-062021-01-022021-07-072021-08-112021-07-072021-08-072021-08-042021-07-072021-08-162021-08-312021-07-082021-08-312021-07-062021-08-092021-08-182021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-06-132021-07-062021-08-292021-07-062021-07-072021-08-312021-07-072021-07-072021-08-082021-07-072021-07-092021-07-072021-07-052021-07-062021-08-102021-08-292021-07-082021-08-302021-08-112021-08-302021-09-012021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-042021-07-062021-08-292021-07-072021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-292021-07-072021-08-292021-07-072021-07-072021-08-312021-07-092021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-08-162021-08-152021-07-082021-08-092021-07-072021-08-302021-08-292021-07-07 --2021-07-062021-07-102021-07-072021-06-232021-08-292021-08-302021-08-302021-08-042021-07-072021-07-102021-08-302021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-07-0712-272021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-01-032021-07-032021-07-082021-07-072021-07-21 --12-262021-08-312021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-072021-07-102021-09-012021-07-0712-082021-07-082021-08-092021-08-302021-07-072021-08-082021-08-132021-07-072021-08-302021-07-072021-07-072021-08-242021-09-012021-08-302021-07-082021-07-062021-07-032021-07-072021-08-022021-08-272021-07-132021-08-292021-08-092021-07-072021-07-032021-07-082021-07-252021-08-292021-08-022021-07-062021-07-072021-07-042021-07-062021-07-072021-07-082021-07-062021-07-262021-07-072021-07-082021-08-302021-07-072021-08-302021-06-222021-08-222021-07-072021-06-222021-08-052021-07-072021-01-01 --2021-07-062021-08-302021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-08-292021-09-0112-272021-07-082021-07-062021-07-052021-07-072021-07-042021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-302021-08-082021-07-072021-07-062021-07-0612-232021-08-072021-06-282021-07-062021-07-082021-07-0807-212021-07-062021-08-112021-07-062021-08-082021-08-292021-07-072021-08-042021-07-052021-07-072021-08-09 --2021-08-082021-07-062021-08-292021-07-212021-07-082021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-06-272021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-08-302021-07-072021-07-062021-07-052021-07-072021-07-082021-07-052021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-292021-07-072021-07-072021-06-222021-07-082021-08-092021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-08-102021-08-102021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-0712-062021-08-102021-07-072021-07-052021-07-082021-07-072021-08-292021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-092021-07-062021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-08-302021-07-072021-08-242021-08-092021-08-302021-07-072021-07-042021-08-312021-07-072021-08-302021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-07-092021-08-232021-06-292021-07-072021-08-252021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-08-302021-07-082021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-06-30
Peak daily increment 190 102 51 115 105 94 99 98 195 127 93 63 100 57 93 260 276 49 139 152 144 210 103 379 176 1249 157 159 95 61 208 42 484 107 478 103 58 176 68 98 218 621 60 258 94 72 97 74 161 182 158 72 159 74 60 242 115 210 101 100 227 51 138 170 64 96 269 243 82 69 69 121 573 72 142 13 96 114 84 689 41 607 376 53 101 229 122 140 92 53 86 246 48 196 400 181 49 269 134 192 189 158 46 131 175 62 122 88 112 65 162 295 73 117 61 90 28 82 145 105 58 110 124 199 66 59 170 458 93 67 56 82 274 123 1003 95 58 63 113 163 69 88 229 87 84 156 58 152 61 113 143 65 146 54 68 151 97 82 65 213 197 84 130 101 71 143 56 45 88 189 84 69 71 247 93 271 311 301 117 707 284 51 213 80 99 727 121 120 41 47 442 96 169 29 71 105 124 70 39 101 118 113 274 129 196 49 39 42 149 94 116 384 105 157 104 140 175 81 94 256 78 70 655 96 35 203 228 77 96 126 322 87 264 158 39 255 9 131 78 56 113 145 343 203 104 85 120 297 57 114 300 202 52 140 67 213 75 69 49 207 81 47 116 70 21 30 253 255 94 83 122 195 65 96 482 24 169 65 277 91 123 49 74 68 345 83 73 68 488 58 68 77 92 106 75 303 200 152 243 70 131 141 87 77 56 101 243 339 240 74 69 428 57 145 101 249 151 219 83 60 139 137 116 92 41 91 78 100 105 131 101 59 226 184 59 64 111 79 352 191 157 313 195 111 73 70 84 40 102 99 68 162 94 45 222 65 76 138 380 351 60 86 243 59 97 185 99 63 79 76 117 120 74 138
Days since peak 11 259 66 68 68 12 63 19 20 67 68 68 67 68 66 66 68 67 68 67 68 67 68 62 67 257 259 66 279 67 125 68 254 67 67 67 13 67 67 13 67 67 68 68 67 67 69 67 68 11 67 46 66 12 84 20 67 12 67 35 67 14 13 68 38 15 67 67 68 67 67 67 14 14 67 47 12 68 13 34 67 72 67 67 67 67 67 69 66 67 68 253 67 32 67 36 39 67 27 12 66 12 68 34 25 67 67 67 91 68 14 68 67 12 67 67 35 67 65 67 69 68 33 14 66 13 32 13 11 67 68 68 70 68 14 67 66 66 67 67 67 14 67 14 67 67 12 65 68 67 67 67 69 27 28 66 34 67 13 14 67 68 64 67 81 14 13 13 39 67 64 13 67 67 66 67 259 67 66 67 252 71 66 67 53 260 12 67 67 67 67 36 64 11 67 278 66 34 13 67 35 30 67 13 67 67 19 11 13 66 68 71 67 41 16 61 14 34 67 71 66 49 14 41 68 67 70 68 67 66 68 48 67 66 13 67 13 82 21 67 82 38 67 254 68 13 66 67 66 67 14 11 259 66 68 69 67 70 66 66 67 67 67 67 13 35 67 68 68 263 36 76 68 66 66 418 68 32 68 35 14 67 39 69 67 34 35 68 14 53 66 68 67 67 66 77 67 67 67 67 67 67 68 67 67 13 67 68 69 67 66 69 67 67 67 14 67 67 82 66 34 67 68 67 33 33 67 68 67 67 280 33 67 69 66 67 14 67 68 67 65 68 67 66 67 67 67 13 67 19 34 13 67 70 12 67 13 67 67 66 65 20 75 67 18 67 68 67 13 66 67 68 66 74
Last total 16070 14057 5156 9621 13488 8035 14821 12023 5112 25838 13684 15655 13355 18480 6132 29904 43664 33893 7385 23569 14416 13766 16926 21241 42164 30713 152421 12211 27696 18919 7805 9363 42481 7485 43367 11708 75364 15231 10203 40053 9781 16896 28892 57575 9702 35679 10680 12717 12292 15248 27440 18537 25792 10707 22908 11200 14681 36124 12804 16104 11275 14312 27361 3444 21095 19122 8506 14354 36873 36992 9884 9255 7672 14014 48678 5251 18316 646 8537 6564 9068 39902 5269 68418 39978 5159 12374 45239 14732 13645 14484 7263 8822 30564 5412 23587 41497 23618 10867 39937 9698 17145 44419 12380 5610 9892 12144 8506 14277 11908 8867 8088 11362 34155 14176 14778 9717 11228 4734 12132 38555 17256 8384 12945 11671 14145 9147 8618 13008 29910 14885 11154 5723 9056 25968 14249 83635 12177 6902 14243 9371 31980 11993 6864 32317 17671 7726 21471 9233 29951 11368 14613 29375 7625 14657 9507 11356 35235 12435 12268 9480 11617 37696 11263 10017 34504 13741 12982 7851 11157 3908 10853 24315 14463 10175 11460 35125 18189 54746 25731 39280 16065 108691 53539 7970 32897 10848 11846 13953 74750 29505 18499 5744 4907 86200 13963 34879 4732 7213 8639 23512 5484 5776 12278 19850 13724 22181 9392 30279 7196 6231 3346 16580 11375 12938 42743 13827 46586 15882 21139 13225 5981 10108 19720 11059 9711 45471 16396 4928 18644 25363 7575 11265 26058 33002 12532 47458 14822 7504 36986 273 16277 6556 14276 10351 24281 23680 23630 7760 21508 17744 42305 18377 9333 14924 22451 28912 7821 17827 4786 33550 9217 10424 7329 34268 11561 8345 12994 10802 3008 3587 39959 48508 10014 6791 10581 37512 9167 10936 71694 596 25686 20406 26252 10514 9422 7415 10873 11481 29073 5008 8030 12223 8092 37589 9345 8052 10584 13966 10760 12811 22185 25983 21019 35260 10944 13842 25927 13390 9745 9323 7404 36473 27445 31816 9485 8148 39341 8394 23351 17332 26303 20470 31203 9754 8428 8503 18793 14183 10039 6305 15277 10005 23237 12502 11423 9068 3417 41087 29475 9554 8049 11127 9421 45453 37207 34432 36842 28307 13435 11819 9664 12427 7778 12774 11624 2888 10827 14204 7907 17528 7884 11080 22535 48079 34827 8925 13848 39038 10113 14313 35811 10142 8892 16265 10081 17152 12578 9073 21093
Last daily increment 121 133 12 66 53 52 54 81 39 107 25 47 27 72 27 40 116 135 40 54 33 46 53 46 161 48 270 75 42 67 35 32 71 22 81 22 156 31 63 71 17 10 57 68 54 81 31 19 32 25 36 99 77 25 43 41 26 106 64 36 21 65 84 13 114 52 6 42 146 109 21 17 34 56 278 20 54 2 26 24 52 153 18 229 113 15 25 78 71 34 21 37 26 85 26 74 158 68 22 98 58 95 73 76 23 36 89 36 42 36 46 30 68 107 33 76 20 53 27 45 55 39 24 52 30 97 36 32 77 252 24 26 8 35 62 43 327 9 17 36 31 54 43 36 37 48 39 39 50 56 19 46 83 30 32 10 32 55 46 13 39 81 52 85 32 71 50 29 54 36 20 25 39 30 68 30 77 37 126 63 57 60 227 162 11 69 46 41 92 163 73 30 28 7 133 46 79 22 29 17 49 21 25 18 62 70 50 51 59 19 12 19 82 37 42 97 50 43 43 82 82 29 47 45 29 44 267 76 24 30 90 20 91 58 102 35 77 55 24 77 3 45 33 36 72 58 73 57 22 59 56 68 48 34 50 98 74 32 61 14 57 23 35 16 110 48 16 54 34 16 16 60 100 36 54 34 88 28 42 183 0 121 36 76 17 89 17 42 44 38 24 23 42 33 199 29 35 39 44 24 47 52 58 54 33 23 30 67 65 54 39 57 121 94 97 32 17 94 41 46 34 85 39 88 47 32 28 76 30 44 10 28 21 44 42 48 38 29 33 87 40 20 38 45 136 64 51 68 81 49 29 23 34 18 39 31 16 73 40 17 107 26 40 42 117 105 50 46 93 16 33 87 17 14 10 23 35 54 35 40
Last week 997 1277 93 411 359 421 559 573 374 1188 262 323 203 455 178 356 807 883 230 353 331 331 272 346 1378 463 2510 463 313 637 302 212 605 133 729 187 1213 260 336 559 157 383 464 692 299 590 198 202 279 192 427 872 649 207 409 379 228 1057 354 939 171 612 598 219 715 339 88 428 1083 1029 217 187 223 350 2530 285 393 23 457 177 367 1243 138 1708 1041 112 219 754 400 284 192 213 347 711 144 768 1020 742 177 879 529 922 681 753 141 283 649 238 292 325 426 202 737 966 290 624 157 292 159 274 545 256 155 326 255 859 240 280 679 2233 461 220 107 278 544 287 3898 157 150 265 302 476 277 415 364 404 175 318 326 427 162 446 532 199 318 135 293 483 454 215 251 883 557 522 237 562 354 250 572 284 229 301 367 255 351 277 888 313 1105 444 565 385 2087 1180 135 532 320 289 783 1317 563 292 149 94 1142 396 502 140 249 294 372 143 192 228 621 598 478 562 548 143 144 196 759 302 312 859 342 541 452 743 864 261 298 422 241 306 2441 459 151 318 721 182 502 486 944 248 661 480 193 608 40 339 288 225 495 609 632 513 420 427 361 585 405 234 292 1185 935 177 325 115 484 189 154 106 844 358 143 323 171 107 107 642 879 333 395 246 730 194 231 1451 46 873 306 518 211 630 152 316 343 368 194 262 250 257 1916 272 218 242 296 296 305 497 516 423 414 179 264 502 374 361 225 505 886 529 740 251 152 757 180 365 212 1033 385 679 294 182 225 574 257 272 106 248 188 332 258 328 340 191 461 610 248 173 501 267 964 730 494 488 588 349 190 170 277 168 257 258 87 794 286 151 1141 240 319 371 877 839 250 359 746 163 321 726 180 161 347 228 316 422 217 329
Previous peak date07-2107-2112-2712-2612-2707-2112-2112-2607-2112-2112-2112-2712-0712-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1111-0212-2110-0712-2211-0212-2710-1310-13 --2021-01-0710-1511-1311-0212-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2811-0212-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3010-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-21 --11-0212-2212-2812-2512-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-3007-2107-2112-26 --12-2912-2612-2712-2112-2411-0212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-2810-272021-02-2510-0110-1412-2712-0712-2607-2107-2112-2707-2112-2412-2907-2112-2412-2111-0907-2112-2607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-06 --07-2112-2312-2712-2207-2112-2512-2512-2510-1710-2912-2607-2112-2112-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-2712-2812-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-222021-07-04 --12-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0107-2112-28 --12-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2210-2709-2912-2912-3011-0211-0212-2112-2712-2711-0212-2209-2812-2712-2212-2112-3111-022021-01-0212-222021-07-052021-01-07 --12-2112-2112-2112-2212-2112-2112-3107-2112-2212-2712-0607-2112-0712-2812-2911-0211-0312-2712-0612-2707-2112-0810-1410-2612-2612-2107-2111-0112-2112-3011-0412-2111-0312-2712-212021-01-0111-0212-2911-0210-22 --12-2712-2812-2607-212021-01-0611-0211-0212-2811-0212-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2207-2112-0610-1112-2112-2710-1912-1310-1112-1310-1812-3012-2810-1312-252021-01-262021-01-0211-0212-2910-3107-2112-2112-2812-2912-2211-02 --12-3012-2512-2512-2107-2112-2212-2112-2812-26 --2021-01-0412-2211-0907-2112-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-2712-2207-2112-2812-2711-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2510-182021-01-0212-2612-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-2112-2212-2212-27 -- --12-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-20 --07-2111-0212-0707-2112-2212-2812-2210-1612-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-2712-3112-2812-2512-3112-2112-3012-2611-02
Previous peak daily increment 605 360 61 88 97 285 134 73 115 260 170 110 176 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 128 109 277 233 262 426 1200 75 166 98 58 234 50 355 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 1167 107 508 94 186 62 122 160 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 107 303 292 268 52 197 249 283 59 91 71 65 1221 82 243 35 53 94 288 34 551 288 38 181 598 151 69 189 72 58 164 27 206 248 187 118 322 216 697 536 296 60 52 370 76 160 106 184 51 231 206 102 163 146 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 457 90 74 94 661 150 125 54 42 127 82 1697 92 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 218 59 201 57 401 172 103 338 103 106 136 120 476 101 159 73 442 57 115 452 143 83 239 134 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 153 428 107 1522 469 104 457 71 229 111 480 274 200 90 36 2166 92 419 40 46 298 37 62 153 186 105 213 296 361 79 62 65 191 105 63 2512 85 723 190 212 186 23 53 137 105 50 969 105 58 123 106 41 56 277 158 121 1362 90 68 257 125 44 108 227 154 135 347 41 156 174 623 105 81 176 445 286 41 188 39 194 138 65 96 198 80 85 67 174 36 25 417 448 80 147 82 407 65 131 557 209 244 167 97 218 110 102 69 181 42 86 73 839 94 79 108 80 66 102 115 248 293 451 131 156 222 94 55 112 144 189 138 197 67 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 172 56 109 46 140 349 90 44 138 123 360 138 51 559 151 90 110 120 84 245 329 449 390 227 260 138 117 160 65 154 87 296 165 42 369 67 115 217 319 264 83 148 431 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 573
Low between peaks 0 -1 -3 -2 -7 0 3 -26 5 -11 2 -7 -17 -8 3 -2 9 -1 -30 -13 2 -14 -12 9 3 307 55 -9 -14 17 2 31 -8 31 -4 -5 -39 -11 1 -1 -18 -8 -8 -10 -16 -1 3 3 0 8 2 -17 -6 -64 5 -9 2 -2 3 -1 -7 -11 -11 -3 -9 -14 -3 -6 0 4 -11 -4 -9 1 1 2 -30 -1 -13 -19 -5 -8 -4 -11 -5 1 -7 0 53 -3 11 1 -28 -14 -4 -48 -3 -6 -2 -3 -7 -3 -6 -12 -2 -5 2 -1 -5 1 -17 -6 -5 0 -4 -80 -12 1 0 -4 0 0 4 -5 1 -7 -5 -8 -7 2 -7 -13 -8 -2 -8 -25 -21 1 -27 -25 -2 -5 1 -12 -2 -17 5 2 -1 -8 -12 -19 -9 -1 33 -27 -1 12 -5 3 -2 -7 -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -12 -3 27 20 2 -5 40 120 1 -18 0 -9 58 7 -22 0 0 27 1 -45 11 -13 2 -10 -3 -10 6 2 5 -15 0 -3 0 0 1 -10 1 15 -14 4 2 8 -8 -5 -12 -3 -7 -6 -7 5 -6 -16 5 1 -7 -3 -7 -4 6 -5 1 6 1 1 3 1 5 -74 37 0 -8 1 -1 -51 -13 -2 1 -20 -4 0 3 0 1 -6 0 -2 0 1 -14 -6 -8 2 -1 -4 -4 -20 -45 3 -6 23 -28 4 -3 -10 -2 -3 -4 -12 -23 -5 -4 -7 -11 -5 -1 2 -5 -10 2 -2 -3 -16 -2 -6 -39 -13 -2 1 -1 -4 4 -5 -7 -12 1 -4 -13 -40 3 -9 7 -8 -5 -6 -12 -3 -7 -4 -9 2 -6 -11 -1 5 0 -18 -3 1 -18 16 -9 -22 -4 -6 -4 4 -12 -13 -5 1 -7 -2 1 -4 -2 -1 -12 7 6 -36 -9 -5 -68 0 -11 -19 -2 -6 2 1 0 -3 -6 -48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-13 to 2021-09-19

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-09-12 16070 14057 5156 9621 13488 8035 14821 12023 5112 25838 13684 15655 13355 18480 6132 29904 43664 33893 7385 23569 14416 13766 16926 21241 42164 30713 152421 12211 27696 18919 7805 9363 42481 7485 43367 11708 75364 15231 10203 40053 9781 16896 28892 57575 9702 35679 10680 12717 12292 15248 27440 18537 25792 10707 22908 11200 14681 36124 12804 16104 11275 14312 27361 3444 21095 19122 8506 14354 36873 36992 9884 9255 7672 14014 48678 5251 18316 646 8537 6564 9068 39902 5269 68418 39978 5159 12374 45239 14732 13645 14484 7263 8822 30564 5412 23587 41497 23618 10867 39937 9698 17145 44419 12380 5610 9892 12144 8506 14277 11908 8867 8088 11362 34155 14176 14778 9717 11228 4734 12132 38555 17256 8384 12945 11671 14145 9147 8618 13008 29910 14885 11154 5723 9056 25968 14249 83635 12177 6902 14243 9371 31980 11993 6864 32317 17671 7726 21471 9233 29951 11368 14613 29375 7625 14657 9507 11356 35235 12435 12268 9480 11617 37696 11263 10017 34504 13741 12982 7851 11157 3908 10853 24315 14463 10175 11460 35125 18189 54746 25731 39280 16065 108691 53539 7970 32897 10848 11846 13953 74750 29505 18499 5744 4907 86200 13963 34879 4732 7213 8639 23512 5484 5776 12278 19850 13724 22181 9392 30279 7196 6231 3346 16580 11375 12938 42743 13827 46586 15882 21139 13225 5981 10108 19720 11059 9711 45471 16396 4928 18644 25363 7575 11265 26058 33002 12532 47458 14822 7504 36986 273 16277 6556 14276 10351 24281 23680 23630 7760 21508 17744 42305 18377 9333 14924 22451 28912 7821 17827 4786 33550 9217 10424 7329 34268 11561 8345 12994 10802 3008 3587 39959 48508 10014 6791 10581 37512 9167 10936 71694 596 25686 20406 26252 10514 9422 7415 10873 11481 29073 5008 8030 12223 8092 37589 9345 8052 10584 13966 10760 12811 22185 25983 21019 35260 10944 13842 25927 13390 9745 9323 7404 36473 27445 31816 9485 8148 39341 8394 23351 17332 26303 20470 31203 9754 8428 8503 18793 14183 10039 6305 15277 10005 23237 12502 11423 9068 3417 41087 29475 9554 8049 11127 9421 45453 37207 34432 36842 28307 13435 11819 9664 12427 7778 12774 11624 2888 10827 14204 7907 17528 7884 11080 22535 48079 34827 8925 13848 39038 10113 14313 35811 10142 8892 16265 10081 17152 12578 9073 21093
2021-09-13 16210 14220 5172 9685 13540 8107 14900 12110 5205 26020 13780 15790 13450 18620 6159 29970 43800 34040 7425 23650 14480 13820 16980 21300 42330 30790 153000 12280 27780 19020 7843 9406 42620 7513 43630 11810 75690 15270 10260 40230 9807 16970 28990 57710 9750 35790 10790 12750 12310 15300 27560 18770 25950 10750 22980 11250 14740 36260 12890 16170 11300 14400 27470 3482 21210 19180 8520 14430 37050 37170 9930 9282 7710 14060 49440 5302 18390 651 8638 6596 9129 40090 5299 68790 40180 5180 12410 45370 14810 13740 14520 7300 8932 30790 5438 23720 41730 23870 10900 40040 9930 17340 44640 12490 5637 9950 12270 8589 14330 11970 9003 8140 11500 34330 14260 14870 9740 11280 4759 12180 38640 17320 8411 13010 11720 14380 9249 8703 13120 30320 14930 11210 5813 9099 26100 14270 84710 12210 6938 14290 9416 32060 12040 6955 32350 17740 7759 21530 9286 30030 11400 14690 29470 7661 14700 9613 11410 35320 12550 12310 9533 11690 37800 11340 10060 34600 13900 13000 7964 11210 3942 10910 24380 14510 10240 11570 35460 18240 54930 25820 39460 16140 109300 53760 7997 33010 10900 11890 14120 75110 29610 18600 5768 4927 86540 14070 34960 4757 7261 8693 23580 5507 5809 12320 19940 13850 22260 9560 30340 7222 6260 3359 16700 11430 12990 42900 13890 46680 16030 21260 13430 6029 10140 19820 11110 9760 46490 16470 4961 18670 25400 7606 11300 26190 33140 12580 47730 14890 7537 37100 275 16360 6691 14320 10410 24490 23750 23700 7825 21550 17820 42400 18450 9370 14980 22600 29180 7848 17890 4804 33670 9246 10450 7354 34510 11620 8371 13050 10870 3026 3631 40140 48700 10070 6859 10610 37720 9208 10980 72060 599 25830 20490 26350 10570 9530 7443 10930 11530 29130 5045 8069 12280 8133 38360 9390 8090 10640 14010 10820 12880 22270 26140 21080 35460 10980 13900 26020 13450 9800 9361 7456 36620 27540 31950 9531 8175 39510 8429 23420 17350 26710 20500 31430 9800 8460 8545 18900 14260 10090 6326 15320 10040 23340 12580 11490 9119 3443 41170 29620 9628 8080 11170 9471 45700 37430 34520 36880 28400 13490 11860 9759 12540 7841 12850 11690 2895 10860 14300 7936 17750 7928 11190 22640 48230 35310 8969 13920 39250 10140 14380 36020 10180 8922 16320 10130 17220 12640 9115 21230
2021-09-14 16360 14350 5199 9717 13580 8207 15000 12180 5313 26210 13840 15880 13500 18740 6179 30070 43920 34160 7468 23720 14560 13880 17020 21400 42540 30900 153600 12330 27830 19100 7874 9467 42720 7538 43820 11870 75960 15330 10320 40380 9835 17090 29200 57810 9800 35940 10860 12790 12340 15350 27660 18930 26070 10810 23070 11320 14800 36400 12980 16280 11330 14500 27620 3519 21290 19260 8534 14500 37220 37340 9980 9343 7753 14090 50040 5379 18470 662 8721 6633 9169 40560 5356 69130 40360 5217 12490 45580 14890 13790 14580 7340 9008 30970 5470 23910 41920 24090 10960 40160 10080 17510 44800 12610 5686 10070 12520 8663 14400 12080 9103 8186 11620 34580 14330 14940 9757 11380 4778 12250 38760 17380 8439 13110 11830 14560 9320 8766 13250 30680 14980 11260 5862 9130 26200 14300 85500 12220 7013 14340 9458 32170 12110 7027 32390 17820 7804 21630 9345 30120 11450 14790 29580 7716 14750 9676 11510 35440 12650 12370 9607 11870 37980 11370 10130 34680 14000 13030 8113 11260 3965 11010 24470 14560 10300 11660 35710 18320 55160 25950 39610 16210 109700 53980 8055 33130 10950 11950 14320 75380 29730 18670 5782 4968 86800 14180 35060 4782 7337 8788 23660 5563 5848 12420 20070 13960 22340 9670 30400 7262 6320 3360 16830 11510 13070 43090 13980 46830 16120 21410 13600 6104 10170 19910 11190 9810 47240 16560 4992 18700 25470 7643 11300 26290 33290 12670 47930 14950 7575 37190 275 16440 6785 14360 10450 24660 23900 23850 7891 21620 17930 42520 18530 9403 15060 22710 29360 7865 17990 4824 33760 9266 10470 7424 34690 11680 8418 13110 10910 3048 3663 40300 48880 10120 6939 10670 37880 9280 11020 72370 603 25990 20560 26480 10590 9670 7486 11020 11580 29200 5128 8100 12390 8167 38900 9443 8128 10730 14060 10970 12940 22350 26270 21130 35580 11040 14010 26090 13510 9830 9401 7527 36780 27650 32110 9593 8200 39660 8481 23530 17380 26960 20530 31580 9820 8497 8656 19010 14310 10160 6336 15390 10090 23420 12640 11620 9150 3483 41310 29740 9689 8122 11190 9548 45900 37600 34640 36930 28510 13550 11910 9825 12610 7888 12910 11830 2927 11020 14360 8004 17980 7990 11280 22710 48370 35580 9035 14010 39420 10190 14500 36180 10230 8977 16400 10180 17320 12670 9161 21320
2021-09-15 16510 14500 5220 9763 13630 8292 15090 12260 5403 26400 13890 15950 13550 18820 6202 30150 44050 34300 7508 23800 14630 13930 17060 21490 42730 30990 154100 12380 27890 19190 7908 9518 42820 7558 43980 11920 76180 15380 10370 40490 9862 17190 29350 57890 9850 36070 10910 12830 12360 15380 27730 19100 26210 10860 23150 11380 14850 36530 13060 16370 11350 14590 27750 3557 21390 19330 8546 14570 37390 37520 10020 9387 7792 14120 50580 5445 18550 670 8816 6668 9219 40890 5400 69420 40520 5246 12540 45760 14960 13850 14630 7377 9079 31100 5498 24080 42100 24250 11010 40270 10190 17670 44950 12730 5723 10160 12710 8717 14460 12170 9191 8222 11730 34790 14380 15020 9768 11450 4800 12310 38870 17430 8466 13200 11920 14710 9370 8820 13360 31040 15030 11300 5897 9167 26300 14330 86270 12220 7070 14390 9501 32260 12170 7099 32420 17890 7842 21710 9399 30210 11480 14880 29680 7761 14790 9723 11580 35540 12730 12420 9671 12070 38130 11430 10190 34770 14090 13060 8263 11320 3993 11090 24550 14610 10360 11720 35910 18390 55370 26060 39730 16290 110100 54190 8099 33230 11000 12000 14500 75630 29840 18730 5800 4998 87060 14280 35150 4807 7401 8864 23740 5603 5884 12500 20170 14070 22420 9790 30460 7295 6365 3369 16960 11570 13140 43260 14060 46950 16210 21550 13760 6165 10200 20000 11250 9860 47860 16640 5019 18730 25560 7678 11330 26410 33430 12740 48080 15010 7610 37300 275 16510 6856 14400 10500 24780 24010 23960 7957 21690 18020 42630 18600 9437 15130 22850 29540 7886 18080 4843 33850 9289 10500 7472 34850 11740 8456 13160 10940 3068 3689 40430 49030 10170 7011 10700 38010 9337 11050 72640 606 26140 20630 26600 10600 9790 7521 11090 11630 29270 5189 8134 12470 8204 39330 9492 8165 10810 14110 11070 13000 22430 26400 21180 35680 11080 14090 26180 13570 9870 9439 7593 36940 27750 32260 9648 8226 39780 8524 23630 17400 27240 20560 31720 9860 8531 8734 19120 14350 10220 6348 15450 10130 23480 12680 11710 9190 3516 41420 29850 9734 8158 11220 9612 46070 37740 34740 36970 28610 13610 11960 9867 12670 7924 12950 11930 2948 11180 14420 8054 18170 8044 11340 22780 48510 35780 9090 14090 39570 10240 14600 36320 10270 9021 16460 10220 17410 12720 9204 21390
2021-09-16 16670 14650 5238 9816 13680 8368 15170 12330 5483 26580 13950 16010 13590 18890 6226 30230 44190 34430 7547 23850 14700 13990 17100 21560 42910 31070 154500 12440 27950 19280 7943 9564 42930 7581 44120 11960 76390 15430 10420 40580 9888 17280 29470 58070 9900 36190 10940 12860 12380 15410 27810 19260 26310 10910 23220 11450 14900 36670 13130 16460 11380 14680 27870 3593 21490 19390 8557 14640 37560 37690 10070 9424 7831 14160 51030 5505 18620 676 8893 6701 9272 41140 5437 69710 40710 5271 12590 45910 15040 13910 14670 7413 9152 31210 5525 24230 42250 24390 11050 40360 10300 17810 45080 12840 5755 10240 12860 8755 14520 12240 9271 8259 11850 34980 14430 15100 9779 11510 4822 12360 38960 17480 8492 13270 11980 14850 9417 8873 13480 31440 15080 11340 5928 9206 26400 14350 86940 12260 7117 14430 9545 32350 12230 7191 32450 17960 7877 21780 9450 30290 11520 14960 29780 7802 14840 9760 11650 35640 12820 12460 9729 12230 38260 11490 10240 34840 14160 13090 8396 11370 4023 11160 24620 14650 10420 11770 36070 18450 55570 26160 39840 16350 110500 54380 8135 33320 11050 12050 14670 75870 29950 18790 5820 5024 87290 14360 35240 4832 7457 8930 23810 5635 5918 12560 20270 14180 22490 9880 30510 7325 6403 3382 17080 11630 13190 43410 14130 47060 16300 21680 13930 6220 10240 20070 11310 9910 48420 16720 5042 18750 25650 7710 11360 26500 33580 12800 48230 15070 7644 37410 275 16560 6927 14440 10550 24890 24100 24060 8022 21750 18100 42730 18670 9471 15190 22970 29730 7908 18150 4861 33930 9314 10520 7509 35000 11800 8487 13210 10960 3086 3710 40560 49180 10220 7078 10730 38140 9386 11090 72870 610 26290 20680 26700 10640 9900 7552 11150 11680 29330 5238 8171 12530 8243 39730 9538 8202 10870 14160 11160 13040 22500 26480 21240 35770 11120 14160 26260 13620 9920 9476 7673 37090 27850 32390 9698 8250 39920 8561 23710 17420 27450 20590 31850 9890 8563 8793 19220 14400 10270 6370 15500 10170 23540 12730 11790 9234 3545 41520 29970 9777 8192 11260 9668 46230 37870 34840 37000 28700 13660 12010 9905 12730 7954 12990 12020 2962 11320 14470 8094 18370 8093 11400 22860 48670 36000 9138 14170 39700 10270 14690 36470 10300 9057 16520 10270 17480 12770 9246 21460
2021-09-17 16780 14810 5255 9870 13730 8442 15250 12410 5528 26770 14000 16070 13630 18970 6251 30300 44300 34570 7586 23900 14760 14040 17150 21630 43080 31150 154900 12510 27980 19370 7979 9608 43020 7600 44260 12000 76570 15470 10460 40680 9914 17370 29590 58240 9940 36310 10980 12900 12400 15440 27870 19400 26420 10950 23290 11510 14940 36800 13200 16540 11400 14770 27990 3630 21590 19450 8568 14720 37740 37860 10110 9459 7869 14200 51460 5564 18690 682 8952 6734 9326 41370 5474 69990 40880 5296 12630 46060 15110 13950 14710 7449 9201 31320 5551 24370 42400 24510 11090 40440 10410 17950 45180 12960 5786 10300 13010 8793 14570 12310 9369 8282 11940 35170 14480 15190 9790 11580 4845 12410 39060 17510 8519 13340 12050 14960 9461 8921 13590 31780 15120 11370 5952 9246 26480 14380 87550 12280 7163 14470 9589 32430 12280 7257 32480 18030 7911 21850 9502 30370 11550 15040 29870 7841 14880 9799 11710 35730 12880 12510 9786 12370 38380 11550 10290 34890 14230 13130 8501 11420 4053 11220 24680 14700 10480 11820 36220 18510 55760 26250 39930 16400 110800 54540 8169 33410 11100 12100 14840 76070 30060 18840 5841 5048 87480 14420 35320 4856 7511 8993 23880 5664 5952 12610 20370 14280 22570 9950 30570 7354 6440 3395 17210 11690 13250 43570 14200 47170 16370 21800 14070 6273 10270 20140 11360 9950 48860 16800 5071 18780 25740 7743 11390 26570 33710 12860 48350 15130 7678 37490 277 16610 6985 14470 10600 25000 24190 24150 8088 21810 18180 42840 18740 9506 15240 23010 29860 7932 18220 4879 34000 9340 10540 7544 35120 11860 8518 13270 11000 3105 3725 40660 49320 10270 7145 10760 38260 9434 11130 73100 613 26430 20740 26800 10660 10010 7583 11210 11720 29390 5285 8208 12600 8283 40110 9584 8238 10930 14200 11240 13090 22580 26570 21300 35860 11160 14230 26330 13680 9970 9513 7726 37230 27940 32530 9747 8274 40050 8598 23780 17450 27630 20620 31950 9930 8595 8848 19320 14430 10330 6402 15540 10200 23600 12770 11870 9279 3574 41620 30060 9822 8224 11290 9723 46380 37990 34930 37020 28780 13720 12050 9940 12770 7979 13030 12110 2975 11430 14520 8132 18530 8141 11460 22910 48770 36190 9185 14240 39810 10300 14770 36590 10340 9092 16580 10300 17560 12820 9287 21520
2021-09-18 16880 14970 5271 9929 13780 8512 15330 12490 5562 26950 14030 16120 13650 19010 6277 30370 44400 34700 7624 23940 14820 14090 17190 21690 43250 31230 155200 12570 28010 19470 8016 9650 43070 7608 44340 12020 76730 15520 10500 40740 9940 17450 29690 58280 9970 36410 11000 12930 12410 15460 27920 19500 26480 10990 23360 11550 14960 36940 13280 16620 11430 14860 28100 3666 21690 19510 8578 14790 37910 38030 10150 9489 7906 14250 51760 5620 18760 688 9026 6766 9383 41560 5507 70170 41000 5318 12680 46200 15180 13990 14750 7485 9253 31410 5576 24500 42540 24600 11120 40520 10460 18060 45270 13070 5814 10360 13140 8821 14620 12380 9417 8303 12000 35350 14510 15280 9790 11630 4870 12460 39150 17540 8545 13410 12100 15030 9496 8956 13690 32030 15170 11400 5960 9288 26550 14400 87840 12280 7203 14520 9633 32510 12330 7320 32510 18090 7944 21910 9552 30440 11580 15120 29970 7877 14930 9815 11760 35820 12930 12550 9840 12460 38490 11620 10340 34940 14270 13160 8551 11470 4085 11280 24740 14740 10540 11840 36310 18560 55950 26340 39990 16450 111000 54670 8200 33470 11150 12140 15000 76240 30160 18880 5863 5069 87600 14450 35400 4881 7562 9051 23940 5689 5985 12670 20470 14350 22640 10010 30630 7381 6472 3410 17330 11750 13310 43720 14270 47270 16440 21920 14160 6322 10310 20190 11410 10000 49140 16870 5089 18800 25800 7774 11430 26620 33820 12910 48420 15200 7710 37560 279 16650 7026 14510 10660 25080 24270 24230 8155 21860 18250 42930 18810 9541 15300 23060 29990 7956 18280 4897 34050 9367 10560 7573 35210 11910 8546 13320 11020 3123 3733 40730 49410 10320 7210 10780 38340 9477 11170 73270 617 26560 20780 26900 10660 10110 7612 11270 11780 29440 5325 8246 12650 8323 40300 9629 8275 10980 14250 11310 13120 22660 26630 21360 35890 11200 14290 26410 13740 10020 9550 7769 37370 28040 32660 9794 8299 40140 8631 23850 17470 27760 20660 32020 9970 8626 8894 19420 14470 10380 6406 15590 10240 23630 12800 11940 9326 3600 41700 30130 9855 8256 11330 9774 46490 38090 35020 37030 28840 13780 12090 9960 12800 8001 13070 12180 2984 11520 14560 8165 18650 8187 11490 22960 48870 36270 9229 14310 39900 10340 14840 36680 10370 9124 16640 10320 17630 12880 9327 21560
2021-09-19 16980 15140 5286 9990 13840 8580 15410 12570 5595 27130 14060 16160 13670 19080 6303 30440 44510 34840 7662 23980 14890 14140 17230 21750 43420 31310 155500 12640 28050 19560 8053 9691 43140 7627 44420 12050 76880 15560 10560 40810 9965 17530 29790 58310 10020 36520 11030 12960 12440 15490 27960 19600 26560 11030 23430 11590 14980 37070 13350 16700 11450 14950 28210 3702 21800 19570 8588 14860 38090 38210 10190 9518 7944 14290 52040 5674 18830 693 9056 6798 9440 41740 5539 70400 41120 5339 12720 46330 15250 14020 14780 7520 9287 31510 5601 24630 42690 24670 11160 40620 10510 18150 45370 13180 5841 10420 13270 8853 14670 12440 9464 8329 12080 35530 14540 15370 9802 11690 4894 12510 39240 17570 8571 13470 12150 15140 9534 8990 13800 32260 15220 11420 5972 9330 26620 14420 88270 12290 7241 14560 9678 32590 12370 7363 32530 18160 7976 21970 9602 30520 11620 15200 30060 7913 14980 9828 11820 35900 12990 12590 9893 12540 38600 11690 10380 35010 14330 13180 8570 11520 4118 11340 24800 14780 10600 11880 36410 18620 56130 26430 40050 16500 111300 54810 8228 33530 11200 12190 15170 76400 30260 18920 5885 5090 87750 14500 35480 4906 7611 9106 24000 5712 6018 12710 20560 14420 22720 10060 30690 7407 6502 3426 17450 11800 13360 43860 14330 47370 16490 22040 14240 6371 10340 20240 11460 10040 49480 16950 5110 18830 25890 7806 11470 26680 33920 12960 48510 15270 7743 37630 281 16690 7062 14550 10720 25140 24340 24310 8221 21910 18320 43030 18870 9577 15350 23200 30080 7981 18340 4914 34110 9394 10580 7599 35320 11970 8573 13370 11050 3141 3749 40790 49510 10370 7275 10800 38420 9519 11210 73450 620 26700 20820 26990 10660 10210 7640 11330 11830 29500 5363 8285 12700 8364 40530 9673 8311 11040 14300 11380 13170 22740 26700 21420 35930 11240 14340 26470 13790 10070 9587 7832 37520 28130 32790 9840 8323 40230 8664 23920 17490 27870 20690 32110 10010 8657 8937 19530 14500 10430 6411 15630 10280 23680 12840 12010 9374 3626 41790 30210 9889 8286 11380 9824 46620 38160 35110 37090 28920 13830 12130 9983 12840 8023 13110 12250 2992 11590 14600 8196 18770 8232 11530 23000 48980 36380 9272 14380 39990 10360 14910 36770 10400 9155 16690 10350 17690 12940 9368 21600

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-13 to 2021-09-19

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-09-12 16070 14057 5156 9621 13488 8035 14821 12023 5112 25838 13684 15655 13355 18480 6132 29904 43664 33893 7385 23569 14416 13766 16926 21241 42164 30713 152421 12211 27696 18919 7805 9363 42481 7485 43367 11708 75364 15231 10203 40053 9781 16896 28892 57575 9702 35679 10680 12717 12292 15248 27440 18537 25792 10707 22908 11200 14681 36124 12804 16104 11275 14312 27361 3444 21095 19122 8506 14354 36873 36992 9884 9255 7672 14014 48678 5251 18316 646 8537 6564 9068 39902 5269 68418 39978 5159 12374 45239 14732 13645 14484 7263 8822 30564 5412 23587 41497 23618 10867 39937 9698 17145 44419 12380 5610 9892 12144 8506 14277 11908 8867 8088 11362 34155 14176 14778 9717 11228 4734 12132 38555 17256 8384 12945 11671 14145 9147 8618 13008 29910 14885 11154 5723 9056 25968 14249 83635 12177 6902 14243 9371 31980 11993 6864 32317 17671 7726 21471 9233 29951 11368 14613 29375 7625 14657 9507 11356 35235 12435 12268 9480 11617 37696 11263 10017 34504 13741 12982 7851 11157 3908 10853 24315 14463 10175 11460 35125 18189 54746 25731 39280 16065 108691 53539 7970 32897 10848 11846 13953 74750 29505 18499 5744 4907 86200 13963 34879 4732 7213 8639 23512 5484 5776 12278 19850 13724 22181 9392 30279 7196 6231 3346 16580 11375 12938 42743 13827 46586 15882 21139 13225 5981 10108 19720 11059 9711 45471 16396 4928 18644 25363 7575 11265 26058 33002 12532 47458 14822 7504 36986 273 16277 6556 14276 10351 24281 23680 23630 7760 21508 17744 42305 18377 9333 14924 22451 28912 7821 17827 4786 33550 9217 10424 7329 34268 11561 8345 12994 10802 3008 3587 39959 48508 10014 6791 10581 37512 9167 10936 71694 596 25686 20406 26252 10514 9422 7415 10873 11481 29073 5008 8030 12223 8092 37589 9345 8052 10584 13966 10760 12811 22185 25983 21019 35260 10944 13842 25927 13390 9745 9323 7404 36473 27445 31816 9485 8148 39341 8394 23351 17332 26303 20470 31203 9754 8428 8503 18793 14183 10039 6305 15277 10005 23237 12502 11423 9068 3417 41087 29475 9554 8049 11127 9421 45453 37207 34432 36842 28307 13435 11819 9664 12427 7778 12774 11624 2888 10827 14204 7907 17528 7884 11080 22535 48079 34827 8925 13848 39038 10113 14313 35811 10142 8892 16265 10081 17152 12578 9073 21093
2021-09-13 16240 14330 5172 9690 13550 8117 14890 12120 5195 26010 13740 15730 13400 18570 6158 29970 43810 34040 7423 23640 14480 13820 17000 21300 42370 30780 152900 12280 27770 19010 7850 9412 42600 7512 43510 11750 75580 15270 10260 40160 9804 16970 28990 57700 9750 35780 10740 12750 12330 15290 27520 18700 25900 10750 22970 11250 14720 36300 12870 16250 11300 14410 27470 3480 21200 19180 8525 14420 37090 37160 9920 9287 7708 14070 49230 5308 18380 651 8614 6595 9135 40120 5298 68750 40150 5178 12420 45360 14810 13710 14520 7301 8884 30720 5437 23690 41700 23760 10900 40070 9820 17320 44560 12500 5637 9950 12280 8565 14330 11970 8960 8126 11520 34320 14230 14890 9747 11290 4759 12180 38640 17300 8411 13010 11720 14330 9200 8676 13100 30380 14950 11190 5759 9101 26060 14300 84440 12210 6937 14280 9409 32050 12040 6931 32380 17730 7761 21530 9283 30020 11400 14700 29450 7660 14700 9541 11400 35320 12520 12300 9533 11800 37800 11340 10060 34600 13820 13010 7970 11210 3937 10900 24370 14510 10240 11530 35290 18240 54960 25810 39400 16140 109100 53790 7996 32980 10900 11890 14060 75000 29600 18550 5768 4928 86430 14030 34970 4756 7257 8684 23570 5511 5808 12320 19930 13820 22260 9520 30360 7222 6256 3378 16690 11430 13000 42850 13890 46690 15970 21240 13380 6019 10150 19790 11110 9760 46090 16470 4954 18710 25470 7603 11350 26140 33150 12580 47600 14890 7534 37100 278 16340 6619 14320 10440 24400 23800 23720 7821 21570 17820 42390 18440 9370 14980 22690 29100 7848 17890 4802 33660 9245 10450 7357 34430 11610 8370 13050 10850 3026 3615 40080 48670 10060 6863 10640 37650 9207 10980 71960 606 25820 20460 26340 10560 9530 7442 10930 11530 29130 5042 8068 12280 8133 38080 9391 8090 10640 14020 10820 12860 22260 26080 21080 35360 10980 13900 26020 13450 9810 9361 7495 36620 27550 31930 9529 8175 39470 8436 23420 17370 26500 20550 31350 9800 8460 8542 18900 14230 10090 6328 15310 10040 23310 12550 11490 9117 3447 41160 29570 9604 8079 11200 9469 45650 37350 34520 36930 28410 13490 11860 9707 12490 7812 12830 11690 2904 10960 14270 7935 17740 7930 11160 22600 48230 35030 8971 13910 39190 10140 14390 35940 10170 8920 16320 10120 17210 12640 9116 21160
2021-09-14 16430 14590 5191 9750 13610 8210 14970 12200 5290 26190 13790 15800 13460 18670 6184 30050 43940 34190 7460 23710 14550 13870 17060 21380 42600 30850 153300 12340 27830 19100 7900 9462 42710 7538 43650 11810 75820 15320 10320 40280 9833 17070 29100 57880 9800 35910 10790 12780 12390 15330 27620 18880 26020 10790 23050 11320 14770 36500 12920 16440 11330 14500 27600 3527 21300 19240 8562 14480 37270 37370 9970 9333 7749 14110 49830 5375 18460 658 8705 6631 9203 40350 5340 69090 40340 5203 12470 45520 14890 13770 14560 7339 8960 30880 5462 23840 41880 23940 10950 40240 9950 17510 44710 12630 5670 10010 12450 8629 14380 12040 9058 8169 11680 34510 14290 14980 9781 11350 4783 12240 38750 17360 8435 13100 11770 14540 9260 8736 13190 30800 15040 11240 5802 9143 26160 14350 85350 12250 6989 14330 9452 32130 12090 7014 32460 17800 7801 21600 9337 30090 11440 14800 29550 7701 14750 9583 11460 35420 12610 12350 9603 12010 37930 11410 10110 34710 13910 13060 8108 11260 3972 10970 24440 14550 10310 11600 35490 18300 55170 25920 39520 16200 109600 54030 8033 33070 10950 11940 14180 75270 29700 18620 5790 4956 86680 14100 35070 4784 7315 8762 23650 5549 5846 12380 20030 13910 22340 9640 30470 7255 6297 3411 16810 11490 13060 42980 13970 46800 16080 21360 13560 6064 10190 19860 11160 9800 46780 16560 4983 18790 25580 7639 11430 26240 33290 12640 47760 14960 7570 37200 283 16410 6694 14350 10520 24540 23950 23830 7892 21640 17910 42500 18520 9407 15050 22940 29280 7871 17960 4823 33760 9274 10480 7394 34610 11670 8404 13100 10880 3048 3641 40220 48830 10120 6940 10700 37800 9263 11020 72260 617 25970 20510 26450 10610 9650 7477 11000 11590 29220 5087 8110 12350 8179 38590 9439 8128 10700 14060 10910 12920 22350 26180 21150 35450 11020 13970 26100 13510 9870 9403 7591 36780 27650 32070 9585 8208 39630 8479 23500 17410 26750 20680 31500 9840 8496 8598 19020 14280 10150 6355 15350 10080 23390 12610 11570 9160 3477 41240 29670 9659 8112 11300 9526 45820 37500 34620 37030 28510 13550 11900 9756 12560 7852 12880 11780 2922 11130 14320 7974 17990 7984 11240 22670 48350 35250 9018 14000 39350 10180 14480 36060 10210 8959 16390 10160 17290 12700 9167 21240
2021-09-15 16610 14810 5209 9820 13660 8296 15050 12280 5380 26370 13840 15860 13510 18760 6211 30130 44070 34340 7493 23770 14610 13920 17110 21450 42820 30910 153800 12410 27890 19200 7949 9505 42810 7560 43790 11860 76050 15360 10380 40390 9861 17160 29200 58040 9850 36030 10830 12810 12440 15370 27700 19060 26140 10830 23120 11380 14820 36710 12980 16620 11350 14600 27720 3571 21400 19290 8594 14550 37450 37570 10020 9374 7788 14160 50370 5438 18540 665 8797 6664 9269 40560 5378 69390 40510 5226 12510 45670 14970 13830 14610 7373 9032 31020 5486 23970 42050 24090 10990 40390 10060 17680 44840 12760 5700 10060 12590 8681 14430 12110 9148 8206 11840 34690 14350 15080 9808 11410 4808 12290 38840 17410 8459 13170 11820 14720 9311 8790 13280 31220 15120 11280 5836 9189 26270 14410 86260 12300 7034 14370 9495 32210 12130 7094 32540 17860 7838 21670 9390 30170 11470 14880 29630 7740 14800 9621 11520 35510 12700 12400 9667 12230 38060 11480 10160 34810 13990 13100 8244 11310 4007 11030 24500 14600 10370 11650 35670 18360 55370 26020 39630 16260 110000 54240 8066 33160 11000 11990 14290 75520 29800 18680 5812 4974 86920 14170 35160 4812 7368 8830 23720 5583 5882 12440 20120 14000 22420 9760 30570 7285 6331 3444 16930 11550 13110 43120 14040 46910 16180 21480 13720 6107 10230 19940 11210 9850 47370 16650 5008 18870 25700 7673 11500 26340 33430 12690 47890 15030 7605 37310 289 16470 6759 14390 10590 24640 24090 23930 7961 21710 17990 42600 18590 9445 15100 23230 29460 7895 18020 4843 33850 9300 10500 7418 34770 11720 8432 13150 10920 3067 3665 40340 48940 10180 7012 10750 37940 9312 11070 72530 627 26120 20560 26550 10650 9770 7507 11060 11640 29300 5127 8152 12400 8225 39020 9491 8164 10760 14110 10980 12970 22430 26290 21220 35540 11050 14040 26190 13570 9930 9443 7684 36940 27760 32190 9638 8236 39770 8518 23570 17440 26990 20790 31640 9880 8530 8645 19130 14330 10210 6381 15390 10120 23460 12660 11640 9203 3503 41310 29760 9707 8141 11400 9576 45960 37650 34720 37120 28610 13600 11940 9797 12610 7889 12930 11860 2936 11290 14370 8008 18200 8030 11300 22740 48470 35440 9063 14070 39490 10200 14560 36180 10250 8992 16460 10200 17360 12760 9214 21300
2021-09-16 16800 15030 5225 9880 13710 8381 15130 12360 5464 26550 13890 15910 13550 18850 6239 30200 44210 34490 7527 23830 14680 13970 17160 21520 43040 30980 154200 12480 27940 19310 7996 9546 42920 7584 43920 11900 76260 15400 10430 40480 9889 17250 29300 58220 9890 36140 10860 12850 12480 15400 27780 19230 26240 10870 23190 11450 14860 36900 13030 16800 11370 14700 27830 3615 21500 19340 8623 14600 37640 37770 10060 9412 7826 14200 50870 5498 18610 671 8884 6697 9336 40760 5414 69690 40700 5248 12560 45810 15040 13890 14650 7407 9103 31150 5510 24100 42200 24230 11030 40540 10170 17840 44980 12880 5728 10110 12730 8725 14480 12180 9227 8241 11990 34860 14400 15180 9833 11470 4834 12340 38940 17460 8483 13240 11870 14890 9360 8843 13380 31630 15200 11320 5869 9236 26370 14450 87060 12340 7076 14420 9539 32280 12170 7177 32610 17930 7873 21730 9441 30230 11500 14970 29710 7776 14850 9652 11570 35590 12780 12440 9728 12410 38170 11550 10200 34910 14060 13130 8369 11350 4040 11090 24560 14640 10440 11700 35820 18410 55560 26110 39740 16310 110300 54440 8097 33250 11060 12040 14400 75770 29890 18730 5835 4997 87140 14240 35250 4839 7424 8892 23780 5613 5918 12490 20220 14100 22500 9870 30670 7314 6367 3477 17040 11610 13150 43250 14110 47010 16270 21590 13890 6150 10280 20000 11260 9890 47920 16730 5029 18960 25820 7706 11570 26430 33570 12750 48030 15100 7639 37420 294 16530 6823 14420 10670 24740 24220 24020 8025 21780 18070 42690 18660 9482 15170 23490 29650 7921 18080 4863 33930 9332 10520 7444 34920 11780 8458 13200 10950 3085 3686 40470 49070 10230 7086 10810 38080 9359 11110 72780 637 26260 20610 26650 10700 9880 7537 11120 11700 29380 5164 8196 12450 8270 39440 9540 8204 10810 14160 11060 13010 22520 26380 21290 35610 11080 14100 26270 13630 9980 9482 7781 37090 27850 32300 9687 8283 39910 8554 23640 17480 27210 20900 31770 9930 8563 8686 19240 14370 10260 6407 15420 10160 23520 12710 11700 9247 3529 41370 29860 9752 8171 11490 9623 46090 37790 34810 37210 28710 13660 11980 9836 12670 7924 12980 11940 2949 11440 14410 8040 18410 8074 11360 22810 48590 35640 9101 14140 39630 10230 14640 36300 10280 9022 16530 10240 17420 12830 9257 21370
2021-09-17 16960 15230 5240 9950 13760 8460 15220 12450 5533 26720 13940 15970 13590 18930 6266 30260 44320 34640 7559 23880 14740 14020 17230 21580 43230 31030 154600 12550 27980 19410 8044 9586 43010 7604 44050 11940 76470 15430 10480 40580 9916 17340 29390 58440 9940 36250 10900 12880 12530 15430 27850 19390 26340 10910 23260 11510 14900 37090 13080 16970 11390 14780 27950 3655 21590 19390 8655 14660 37810 37970 10110 9448 7863 14240 51380 5557 18680 677 8963 6731 9399 40950 5449 69990 40870 5269 12600 45950 15120 13940 14690 7443 9172 31270 5533 24230 42340 24370 11070 40680 10280 18000 45090 13010 5756 10160 12890 8766 14530 12250 9323 8267 12120 35040 14460 15260 9859 11530 4860 12390 39030 17500 8504 13310 11910 15050 9412 8896 13470 31990 15290 11360 5904 9276 26460 14500 88000 12390 7116 14460 9583 32350 12210 7253 32680 17990 7908 21790 9491 30300 11540 15050 29780 7812 14900 9692 11610 35670 12850 12490 9787 12570 38290 11610 10240 35000 14130 13170 8484 11390 4071 11150 24620 14680 10500 11750 35970 18470 55750 26200 39840 16360 110700 54600 8129 33330 11110 12090 14500 75990 29990 18790 5858 5019 87340 14310 35320 4866 7473 8961 23850 5642 5954 12540 20320 14180 22580 9980 30770 7342 6397 3511 17150 11670 13190 43370 14180 47110 16360 21700 14050 6193 10320 20060 11310 9940 48570 16810 5058 19030 25930 7739 11630 26510 33690 12790 48140 15170 7674 37510 299 16590 6888 14460 10740 24830 24340 24110 8089 21840 18150 42790 18730 9520 15220 23730 29810 7946 18130 4883 34000 9358 10550 7475 35060 11830 8483 13250 10980 3104 3704 40580 49170 10290 7157 10860 38210 9404 11150 73030 647 26400 20650 26740 10750 9990 7566 11180 11750 29450 5200 8239 12500 8316 39920 9586 8239 10870 14200 11130 13050 22600 26470 21360 35690 11120 14160 26350 13690 10030 9522 7857 37230 27960 32410 9736 8333 40040 8588 23710 17520 27400 21000 31890 9960 8596 8718 19350 14420 10310 6435 15460 10200 23590 12760 11750 9293 3551 41430 29930 9802 8199 11590 9668 46210 37920 34900 37290 28790 13710 12020 9874 12710 7957 13020 12010 2961 11570 14450 8071 18590 8117 11420 22880 48660 35840 9137 14210 39750 10250 14710 36400 10320 9054 16590 10270 17490 12880 9308 21430
2021-09-18 17110 15410 5254 10020 13800 8546 15300 12520 5608 26870 13980 16020 13630 19010 6294 30330 44420 34780 7589 23940 14800 14070 17290 21650 43410 31090 155000 12620 28020 19510 8092 9623 43090 7621 44180 11980 76670 15460 10520 40670 9943 17420 29480 58580 9980 36370 10930 12910 12570 15460 27910 19540 26440 10950 23320 11570 14940 37290 13130 17150 11410 14870 28060 3699 21680 19440 8682 14710 37970 38160 10150 9483 7900 14280 51820 5613 18760 682 9047 6763 9470 41120 5483 70230 41020 5291 12630 46090 15190 13990 14720 7476 9240 31390 5556 24350 42480 24500 11100 40810 10380 18160 45210 13120 5782 10200 13020 8806 14570 12310 9403 8297 12250 35200 14500 15340 9881 11580 4886 12440 39130 17540 8529 13380 11950 15220 9457 8939 13560 32360 15370 11400 5932 9319 26550 14540 88710 12420 7155 14500 9627 32410 12250 7330 32750 18040 7942 21850 9542 30360 11570 15130 29870 7848 14950 9726 11660 35750 12910 12530 9845 12740 38410 11680 10280 35090 14210 13210 8596 11430 4107 11210 24680 14720 10560 11790 36110 18520 55930 26290 39920 16390 111000 54730 8158 33420 11160 12130 14590 76220 30080 18840 5882 5037 87510 14370 35400 4893 7523 9016 23920 5671 5990 12590 20410 14260 22660 10090 30870 7370 6427 3542 17260 11730 13230 43500 14240 47200 16450 21810 14190 6236 10360 20120 11350 9980 49050 16890 5078 19110 26040 7772 11690 26590 33800 12840 48270 15240 7709 37600 304 16650 6953 14480 10810 24910 24470 24190 8150 21890 18220 42880 18810 9558 15270 23960 29970 7972 18170 4902 34060 9388 10570 7494 35200 11880 8508 13300 11020 3122 3721 40680 49240 10340 7223 10900 38330 9449 11200 73260 656 26540 20700 26840 10800 10100 7595 11230 11800 29510 5235 8277 12550 8361 40270 9630 8278 10920 14240 11200 13080 22690 26550 21430 35740 11150 14220 26420 13750 10070 9562 7931 37370 28050 32510 9785 8382 40180 8618 23780 17550 27610 21100 32000 10000 8629 8749 19450 14460 10360 6457 15480 10240 23650 12810 11810 9336 3571 41480 29980 9847 8224 11680 9713 46310 38050 34990 37370 28880 13760 12060 9908 12750 7989 13070 12090 2974 11690 14490 8101 18760 8161 11460 22940 48740 36020 9171 14290 39870 10270 14790 36480 10340 9081 16660 10300 17550 12940 9351 21490
2021-09-19 17230 15560 5267 10090 13850 8621 15380 12600 5682 27040 14020 16060 13670 19100 6323 30390 44530 34920 7621 23990 14860 14120 17340 21710 43600 31140 155400 12690 28070 19620 8140 9663 43180 7641 44290 12030 76870 15490 10570 40770 9971 17500 29560 58720 10020 36480 10960 12940 12620 15500 27990 19700 26530 10990 23380 11630 14970 37480 13180 17300 11430 14960 28170 3738 21770 19480 8709 14760 38130 38350 10190 9518 7936 14310 52200 5670 18830 688 9125 6799 9534 41290 5517 70470 41180 5312 12660 46220 15260 14040 14760 7507 9306 31530 5579 24460 42640 24620 11140 40960 10470 18300 45340 13230 5809 10240 13130 8839 14620 12380 9466 8327 12350 35360 14550 15430 9910 11640 4912 12490 39220 17590 8554 13450 12000 15380 9509 8988 13660 32660 15450 11430 5962 9364 26640 14580 89350 12470 7193 14540 9671 32480 12290 7403 32820 18100 7976 21900 9592 30420 11600 15210 29940 7884 15000 9757 11700 35840 12990 12570 9904 12880 38510 11760 10320 35180 14280 13240 8684 11480 4138 11260 24740 14750 10630 11840 36260 18580 56110 26380 40010 16430 111300 54880 8185 33500 11220 12180 14690 76450 30170 18890 5906 5058 87710 14430 35480 4920 7578 9081 23980 5699 6026 12640 20510 14330 22740 10180 30970 7398 6459 3573 17370 11790 13270 43630 14300 47300 16530 21920 14330 6278 10400 20170 11390 10030 49460 16980 5097 19210 26150 7804 11760 26670 33920 12890 48380 15290 7743 37690 310 16700 7008 14510 10870 24980 24590 24270 8206 21950 18300 42980 18880 9595 15320 24170 30110 7999 18220 4922 34140 9414 10590 7511 35350 11940 8533 13340 11050 3139 3740 40790 49320 10400 7292 10950 38450 9493 11240 73500 664 26680 20740 26940 10840 10190 7623 11290 11850 29580 5269 8319 12610 8406 40590 9677 8315 10970 14280 11260 13120 22780 26650 21500 35800 11180 14280 26500 13810 10110 9601 8006 37520 28150 32610 9837 8422 40300 8649 23840 17590 27790 21200 32120 10040 8661 8773 19560 14500 10410 6479 15510 10280 23700 12850 11870 9374 3592 41530 30060 9889 8251 11770 9756 46410 38180 35080 37460 28960 13820 12100 9943 12810 8022 13120 12160 2986 11800 14530 8130 18940 8207 11520 23000 48820 36210 9204 14360 39980 10300 14850 36570 10370 9112 16720 10330 17610 13000 9396 21550

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.