COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-09-12

	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	2021-09-01	12-27	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-08-31	2021-07-11	--	2021-08-24	2021-08-23	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-12	2021-07-07	12-29	--	12-27	2021-07-08	12-07	2021-07-07	2021-05-10	2021-07-06	2021-01-01	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-30	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-30	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-09-01	2021-07-07	2021-07-28	2021-07-08	2021-08-31	2021-06-20	2021-08-23	2021-07-07	2021-08-31	2021-07-07	2021-08-08	2021-07-07	2021-08-29	2021-08-30	2021-07-06	2021-08-05	2021-08-28	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-29	2021-08-29	2021-07-07	2021-07-27	2021-08-31	2021-07-06	2021-08-30	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-02	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-01-02	2021-07-07	2021-08-11	2021-07-07	2021-08-07	2021-08-04	2021-07-07	2021-08-16	2021-08-31	2021-07-08	2021-08-31	2021-07-06	2021-08-09	2021-08-18	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-06-13	2021-07-06	2021-08-29	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-08-31	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-06	2021-08-10	2021-08-29	2021-07-08	2021-08-30	2021-08-11	2021-08-30	2021-09-01	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-07-04	2021-07-06	2021-08-29	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-29	2021-07-07	2021-08-29	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-31	2021-07-09	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-08-16	2021-08-15	2021-07-08	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-08-30	2021-08-29	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-06	2021-07-10	2021-07-07	2021-06-23	2021-08-29	2021-08-30	2021-08-30	2021-08-04	2021-07-07	2021-07-10	2021-08-30	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	12-27	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-01-03	2021-07-03	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-21	--	12-26	2021-08-31	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-07	2021-07-10	2021-09-01	2021-07-07	12-08	2021-07-08	2021-08-09	2021-08-30	2021-07-07	2021-08-08	2021-08-13	2021-07-07	2021-08-30	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-24	2021-09-01	2021-08-30	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-03	2021-07-07	2021-08-02	2021-08-27	2021-07-13	2021-08-29	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-03	2021-07-08	2021-07-25	2021-08-29	2021-08-02	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-04	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-26	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-08-30	2021-07-07	2021-08-30	2021-06-22	2021-08-22	2021-07-07	2021-06-22	2021-08-05	2021-07-07	2021-01-01	--	2021-07-06	2021-08-30	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-08-29	2021-09-01	12-27	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-04	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-30	2021-08-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	12-23	2021-08-07	2021-06-28	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	07-21	2021-07-06	2021-08-11	2021-07-06	2021-08-08	2021-08-29	2021-07-07	2021-08-04	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-08-09	--	2021-08-08	2021-07-06	2021-08-29	2021-07-21	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-06-27	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-30	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-29	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-06-22	2021-07-08	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-08-10	2021-08-10	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	12-06	2021-08-10	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-08-29	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-09	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-30	2021-07-07	2021-08-24	2021-08-09	2021-08-30	2021-07-07	2021-07-04	2021-08-31	2021-07-07	2021-08-30	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-09	2021-08-23	2021-06-29	2021-07-07	2021-08-25	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-08-30	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	2021-06-30
Peak daily increment	190	102	51	115	105	94	99		98	195	127	93	63	100	57	93	260	276	49	139	152	144	210	103	379	176	1249		157	159	95	61	208	42	484	107	478	103	58	176	68	98	218	621	60	258	94	72	97	74	161	182	158	72	159	74	60	242	115	210	101	100	227	51	138	170	64	96	269	243	82	69	69	121	573	72	142	13	96	114	84	689	41	607	376	53	101	229	122	140	92	53	86	246	48	196	400	181	49	269	134	192	189	158	46	131	175	62	122	88	112	65	162	295	73	117	61	90	28	82	145	105	58	110	124	199	66	59	170	458	93	67	56	82	274	123	1003	95	58	63	113	163	69	88	229	87	84	156	58	152	61	113	143	65	146	54	68	151	97	82	65	213	197		84	130	101	71	143	56	45	88	189	84	69	71	247	93	271	311	301	117	707	284	51	213	80	99		727	121	120	41	47	442	96	169	29	71	105	124	70	39	101	118	113	274	129	196	49	39	42	149	94	116	384	105	157	104	140	175	81	94	256	78	70	655	96	35	203	228	77	96	126	322	87	264	158	39	255	9	131	78	56	113	145	343	203		104	85	120	297	57	114	300	202	52	140	67	213	75	69	49	207	81	47	116	70	21	30	253	255	94	83	122	195	65	96	482	24	169	65	277	91	123	49	74	68	345	83		73	68	488	58	68	77	92	106	75	303	200	152	243	70	131	141	87	77	56	101	243	339	240	74	69	428	57	145	101	249	151	219	83	60	139	137	116	92	41	91	78	100	105	131	101	59	226	184	59	64	111	79	352	191	157	313	195	111	73	70	84	40	102	99	68	162	94	45	222	65	76	138	380	351	60	86	243	59	97	185	99	63	79	76	117	120	74	138
Days since peak	11	259	66	68	68	12	63		19	20	67	68	68	67	68	66	66	68	67	68	67	68	67	68	62	67	257		259	66	279	67	125	68	254	67	67	67	13	67	67	13	67	67	68	68	67	67	69	67	68	11	67	46	66	12	84	20	67	12	67	35	67	14	13	68	38	15	67	67	68	67	67	67	14	14	67	47	12	68	13	34	67	72	67	67	67	67	67	69	66	67	68	253	67	32	67	36	39	67	27	12	66	12	68	34	25	67	67	67	91	68	14	68	67	12	67	67	35	67	65	67	69	68	33	14	66	13	32	13	11	67	68	68	70	68	14	67	66	66	67	67	67	14	67	14	67	67	12	65	68	67	67	67	69	27	28	66	34	67	13	14	67		68	64	67	81	14	13	13	39	67	64	13	67	67	66	67	259	67	66	67	252	71	66	67	53		260	12	67	67	67	67	36	64	11	67	278	66	34	13	67	35	30	67	13	67	67	19	11	13	66	68	71	67	41	16	61	14	34	67	71	66	49	14	41	68	67	70	68	67	66	68	48	67	66	13	67	13	82	21	67	82	38	67	254		68	13	66	67	66	67	14	11	259	66	68	69	67	70	66	66	67	67	67	67	13	35	67	68	68	263	36	76	68	66	66	418	68	32	68	35	14	67	39	69	67	34		35	68	14	53	66	68	67	67	66	77	67	67	67	67	67	67	68	67	67	13	67	68	69	67	66	69	67	67	67	14	67	67	82	66	34	67	68	67	33	33	67	68	67	67	280	33	67	69	66	67	14	67	68	67	65	68	67	66	67	67	67	13	67	19	34	13	67	70	12	67	13	67	67	66	65	20	75	67	18	67	68	67	13	66	67	68	66	74
Last total	16070	14057	5156	9621	13488	8035	14821	12023	5112	25838	13684	15655	13355	18480	6132	29904	43664	33893	7385	23569	14416	13766	16926	21241	42164	30713	152421	12211	27696	18919	7805	9363	42481	7485	43367	11708	75364	15231	10203	40053	9781	16896	28892	57575	9702	35679	10680	12717	12292	15248	27440	18537	25792	10707	22908	11200	14681	36124	12804	16104	11275	14312	27361	3444	21095	19122	8506	14354	36873	36992	9884	9255	7672	14014	48678	5251	18316	646	8537	6564	9068	39902	5269	68418	39978	5159	12374	45239	14732	13645	14484	7263	8822	30564	5412	23587	41497	23618	10867	39937	9698	17145	44419	12380	5610	9892	12144	8506	14277	11908	8867	8088	11362	34155	14176	14778	9717	11228	4734	12132	38555	17256	8384	12945	11671	14145	9147	8618	13008	29910	14885	11154	5723	9056	25968	14249	83635	12177	6902	14243	9371	31980	11993	6864	32317	17671	7726	21471	9233	29951	11368	14613	29375	7625	14657	9507	11356	35235	12435	12268	9480	11617	37696	11263	10017	34504	13741	12982	7851	11157	3908	10853	24315	14463	10175	11460	35125	18189	54746	25731	39280	16065	108691	53539	7970	32897	10848	11846	13953	74750	29505	18499	5744	4907	86200	13963	34879	4732	7213	8639	23512	5484	5776	12278	19850	13724	22181	9392	30279	7196	6231	3346	16580	11375	12938	42743	13827	46586	15882	21139	13225	5981	10108	19720	11059	9711	45471	16396	4928	18644	25363	7575	11265	26058	33002	12532	47458	14822	7504	36986	273	16277	6556	14276	10351	24281	23680	23630	7760	21508	17744	42305	18377	9333	14924	22451	28912	7821	17827	4786	33550	9217	10424	7329	34268	11561	8345	12994	10802	3008	3587	39959	48508	10014	6791	10581	37512	9167	10936	71694	596	25686	20406	26252	10514	9422	7415	10873	11481	29073	5008	8030	12223	8092	37589	9345	8052	10584	13966	10760	12811	22185	25983	21019	35260	10944	13842	25927	13390	9745	9323	7404	36473	27445	31816	9485	8148	39341	8394	23351	17332	26303	20470	31203	9754	8428	8503	18793	14183	10039	6305	15277	10005	23237	12502	11423	9068	3417	41087	29475	9554	8049	11127	9421	45453	37207	34432	36842	28307	13435	11819	9664	12427	7778	12774	11624	2888	10827	14204	7907	17528	7884	11080	22535	48079	34827	8925	13848	39038	10113	14313	35811	10142	8892	16265	10081	17152	12578	9073	21093
Last daily increment	121	133	12	66	53	52	54	81	39	107	25	47	27	72	27	40	116	135	40	54	33	46	53	46	161	48	270	75	42	67	35	32	71	22	81	22	156	31	63	71	17	10	57	68	54	81	31	19	32	25	36	99	77	25	43	41	26	106	64	36	21	65	84	13	114	52	6	42	146	109	21	17	34	56	278	20	54	2	26	24	52	153	18	229	113	15	25	78	71	34	21	37	26	85	26	74	158	68	22	98	58	95	73	76	23	36	89	36	42	36	46	30	68	107	33	76	20	53	27	45	55	39	24	52	30	97	36	32	77	252	24	26	8	35	62	43	327	9	17	36	31	54	43	36	37	48	39	39	50	56	19	46	83	30	32	10	32	55	46	13	39	81	52	85	32	71	50	29	54	36	20	25	39	30	68	30	77	37	126	63	57	60	227	162	11	69	46	41	92	163	73	30	28	7	133	46	79	22	29	17	49	21	25	18	62	70	50	51	59	19	12	19	82	37	42	97	50	43	43	82	82	29	47	45	29	44	267	76	24	30	90	20	91	58	102	35	77	55	24	77	3	45	33	36	72	58	73	57	22	59	56	68	48	34	50	98	74	32	61	14	57	23	35	16	110	48	16	54	34	16	16	60	100	36	54	34	88	28	42	183	0	121	36	76	17	89	17	42	44	38	24	23	42	33	199	29	35	39	44	24	47	52	58	54	33	23	30	67	65	54	39	57	121	94	97	32	17	94	41	46	34	85	39	88	47	32	28	76	30	44	10	28	21	44	42	48	38	29	33	87	40	20	38	45	136	64	51	68	81	49	29	23	34	18	39	31	16	73	40	17	107	26	40	42	117	105	50	46	93	16	33	87	17	14	10	23	35	54	35	40
Last week	997	1277	93	411	359	421	559	573	374	1188	262	323	203	455	178	356	807	883	230	353	331	331	272	346	1378	463	2510	463	313	637	302	212	605	133	729	187	1213	260	336	559	157	383	464	692	299	590	198	202	279	192	427	872	649	207	409	379	228	1057	354	939	171	612	598	219	715	339	88	428	1083	1029	217	187	223	350	2530	285	393	23	457	177	367	1243	138	1708	1041	112	219	754	400	284	192	213	347	711	144	768	1020	742	177	879	529	922	681	753	141	283	649	238	292	325	426	202	737	966	290	624	157	292	159	274	545	256	155	326	255	859	240	280	679	2233	461	220	107	278	544	287	3898	157	150	265	302	476	277	415	364	404	175	318	326	427	162	446	532	199	318	135	293	483	454	215	251	883	557	522	237	562	354	250	572	284	229	301	367	255	351	277	888	313	1105	444	565	385	2087	1180	135	532	320	289	783	1317	563	292	149	94	1142	396	502	140	249	294	372	143	192	228	621	598	478	562	548	143	144	196	759	302	312	859	342	541	452	743	864	261	298	422	241	306	2441	459	151	318	721	182	502	486	944	248	661	480	193	608	40	339	288	225	495	609	632	513	420	427	361	585	405	234	292	1185	935	177	325	115	484	189	154	106	844	358	143	323	171	107	107	642	879	333	395	246	730	194	231	1451	46	873	306	518	211	630	152	316	343	368	194	262	250	257	1916	272	218	242	296	296	305	497	516	423	414	179	264	502	374	361	225	505	886	529	740	251	152	757	180	365	212	1033	385	679	294	182	225	574	257	272	106	248	188	332	258	328	340	191	461	610	248	173	501	267	964	730	494	488	588	349	190	170	277	168	257	258	87	794	286	151	1141	240	319	371	877	839	250	359	746	163	321	726	180	161	347	228	316	422	217	329
Previous peak date	07-21	07-21	12-27	12-26	12-27	07-21	12-21	12-26	07-21	12-21	12-21	12-27	12-07	12-21	12-23	12-28	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	2021-01-02	2021-01-11	11-02	12-21	10-07	12-22	11-02	12-27	10-13	10-13	--	2021-01-07	10-15	11-13	11-02	12-21	10-24	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-14	12-06	12-28	11-02	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-30	12-30	10-27	12-07	10-28	12-21	12-27	12-26	12-08	12-06	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-22	12-21	--	11-02	12-22	12-28	12-25	12-22	12-21	2021-01-03	12-21	12-21	12-30	07-21	07-21	12-26	--	12-29	12-26	12-27	12-21	12-24	11-02	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-28	10-27	2021-02-25	10-01	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	07-21	07-21	12-27	07-21	12-24	12-29	07-21	12-24	12-21	11-09	07-21	12-26	07-21	10-31	12-27	12-30	12-28	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-25	12-21	12-22	2021-01-06	--	07-21	12-23	12-27	12-22	07-21	12-25	12-25	12-25	10-17	10-29	12-26	07-21	12-21	12-28	12-21	12-21	12-27	12-21	2021-01-05	12-22	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-28	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-23	12-13	12-27	12-13	12-29	12-22	2021-07-04	--	12-28	12-30	12-22	12-26	12-21	2021-01-01	07-21	12-28	--	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-25	11-01	12-22	10-27	09-29	12-29	12-30	11-02	11-02	12-21	12-27	12-27	11-02	12-22	09-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-31	11-02	2021-01-02	12-22	2021-07-05	2021-01-07	--	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-31	07-21	12-22	12-27	12-06	07-21	12-07	12-28	12-29	11-02	11-03	12-27	12-06	12-27	07-21	12-08	10-14	10-26	12-26	12-21	07-21	11-01	12-21	12-30	11-04	12-21	11-03	12-27	12-21	2021-01-01	11-02	12-29	11-02	10-22	--	12-27	12-28	12-26	07-21	2021-01-06	11-02	11-02	12-28	11-02	12-29	12-21	12-31	2021-01-05	12-22	07-21	12-06	10-11	12-21	12-27	10-19	12-13	10-11	12-13	10-18	12-30	12-28	10-13	12-25	2021-01-26	2021-01-02	11-02	12-29	10-31	07-21	12-21	12-28	12-29	12-22	11-02	--	12-30	12-25	12-25	12-21	07-21	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-26	--	2021-01-04	12-22	11-09	07-21	12-21	12-22	12-20	2021-01-03	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	12-25	12-25	10-27	12-22	07-21	12-28	12-27	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-02	12-25	10-18	2021-01-02	12-26	12-30	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-26	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-22	12-27	--	--	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-26	12-08	12-21	11-01	12-27	12-27	12-15	12-25	11-02	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-26	12-20	--	07-21	11-02	12-07	07-21	12-22	12-28	12-22	10-16	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	12-31	12-28	12-25	12-31	12-21	12-30	12-26	11-02
Previous peak daily increment	605	360	61	88	97	285	134	73	115	260	170	110	176	178	78	477	589	189	58	326	128	109	277	233	262	426	1200	75	166	98		58	234	50	355	142	434	228	107	524	155	233	307	1167	107	508	94	186	62	122	160	211	137	99	256	87	148	354	172	194	175	107	303		292	268	52	197	249	283	59	91	71	65	1221	82	243		35	53	94	288	34	551	288	38	181	598	151	69	189	72	58	164	27	206	248	187	118	322	216	697	536	296	60	52	370	76	160	106	184	51	231	206	102	163	146	107	56	146	593	273	97	74		457	90	74	94	661	150	125	54	42	127	82	1697	92	56	180	92	451	119	34	377	218	59	201	57	401	172	103	338	103	106	136	120	476	101	159	73		442	57	115	452	143	83	239	134		237	275	148	70	100	283	198	349	153	428	107	1522	469	104	457	71	229	111	480	274	200	90	36	2166	92	419	40	46		298	37	62	153	186	105	213	296	361	79	62	65	191	105	63	2512	85	723	190	212	186	23	53	137	105	50	969	105	58	123	106	41	56	277	158	121	1362	90	68	257		125	44	108	227	154	135	347	41	156	174	623	105	81	176	445	286	41	188	39	194	138	65	96	198	80	85	67	174	36	25	417	448	80	147	82	407	65	131	557		209	244	167	97	218	110	102	69	181		42	86	73	839	94	79	108	80	66	102	115	248	293	451	131	156	222	94	55	112	144	189	138	197	67	42	206	105	331	189	270	181	172	56	109	46	140	349	90	44	138	123	360	138	51			559	151	90	110	120	84	245	329	449	390	227	260	138	117	160	65	154	87		296	165	42	369	67	115	217	319	264	83	148	431	106	138	377	106	115	176	95	173	71	69	573
Low between peaks	0	-1	-3	-2	-7	0	3		-26	5	-11	2	-7	-17	-8	3	-2	9	-1	-30	-13	2	-14	-12	9	3	307		55	-9		-14	17	2	31	-8	31	-4	-5	-39	-11	1	-1	-18	-8	-8	-10	-16	-1	3	3	0	8	2	-17	-6	-64	5	-9	2	-2	3	-1		-7	-11	-11	-3	-9	-14	-3	-6	0	4	-11	-4	-9		1	1	2	-30	-1	-13	-19	-5	-8	-4	-11	-5	1	-7	0	53	-3	11	1	-28	-14	-4	-48	-3	-6	-2	-3	-7	-3	-6	-12	-2	-5	2	-1	-5	1	-17	-6	-5	0	-4	-80	-12	1	0		-4	0	0	4	-5	1	-7	-5	-8	-7	2	-7	-13	-8	-2	-8	-25	-21	1	-27	-25	-2	-5	1	-12	-2	-17	5	2	-1	-8	-12	-19	-9	-1	33		-27		-1	12	-5	3	-2	-7		-5	-5	-5	-3	-3	-12	-3	27	20	2	-5	40	120	1	-18	0	-9		58	7	-22	0	0	27	1	-45	11	-13		2	-10	-3	-10	6	2	5	-15	0	-3	0	0	1	-10	1	15	-14	4	2	8	-8	-5	-12	-3	-7	-6	-7	5	-6	-16	5	1	-7	-3	-7	-4	6	-5	1	6		1	1	3	1	5	-74	37		0	-8	1	-1	-51	-13	-2	1	-20	-4	0	3	0	1	-6	0	-2	0	1	-14	-6	-8	2	-1	-4	-4	-20	-45	3	-6	23		-28	4	-3	-10	-2	-3	-4	-12	-23			-5	-4	-7	-11	-5	-1	2	-5	-10	2	-2	-3	-16	-2	-6	-39	-13	-2	1	-1	-4	4	-5	-7	-12	1	-4	-13	-40	3	-9	7	-8	-5	-6	-12	-3	-7	-4	-9	2	-6	-11	-1			5	0	-18	-3	1	-18	16	-9	-22	-4	-6	-4	4	-12	-13	-5	1	-7		-2	1	-4	-2	-1	-12	7	6	-36	-9	-5	-68	0	-11	-19	-2	-6	2	1	0	-3	-6	-48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-13 to 2021-09-19

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-09-12	16070	14057	5156	9621	13488	8035	14821	12023	5112	25838	13684	15655	13355	18480	6132	29904	43664	33893	7385	23569	14416	13766	16926	21241	42164	30713	152421	12211	27696	18919	7805	9363	42481	7485	43367	11708	75364	15231	10203	40053	9781	16896	28892	57575	9702	35679	10680	12717	12292	15248	27440	18537	25792	10707	22908	11200	14681	36124	12804	16104	11275	14312	27361	3444	21095	19122	8506	14354	36873	36992	9884	9255	7672	14014	48678	5251	18316	646	8537	6564	9068	39902	5269	68418	39978	5159	12374	45239	14732	13645	14484	7263	8822	30564	5412	23587	41497	23618	10867	39937	9698	17145	44419	12380	5610	9892	12144	8506	14277	11908	8867	8088	11362	34155	14176	14778	9717	11228	4734	12132	38555	17256	8384	12945	11671	14145	9147	8618	13008	29910	14885	11154	5723	9056	25968	14249	83635	12177	6902	14243	9371	31980	11993	6864	32317	17671	7726	21471	9233	29951	11368	14613	29375	7625	14657	9507	11356	35235	12435	12268	9480	11617	37696	11263	10017	34504	13741	12982	7851	11157	3908	10853	24315	14463	10175	11460	35125	18189	54746	25731	39280	16065	108691	53539	7970	32897	10848	11846	13953	74750	29505	18499	5744	4907	86200	13963	34879	4732	7213	8639	23512	5484	5776	12278	19850	13724	22181	9392	30279	7196	6231	3346	16580	11375	12938	42743	13827	46586	15882	21139	13225	5981	10108	19720	11059	9711	45471	16396	4928	18644	25363	7575	11265	26058	33002	12532	47458	14822	7504	36986	273	16277	6556	14276	10351	24281	23680	23630	7760	21508	17744	42305	18377	9333	14924	22451	28912	7821	17827	4786	33550	9217	10424	7329	34268	11561	8345	12994	10802	3008	3587	39959	48508	10014	6791	10581	37512	9167	10936	71694	596	25686	20406	26252	10514	9422	7415	10873	11481	29073	5008	8030	12223	8092	37589	9345	8052	10584	13966	10760	12811	22185	25983	21019	35260	10944	13842	25927	13390	9745	9323	7404	36473	27445	31816	9485	8148	39341	8394	23351	17332	26303	20470	31203	9754	8428	8503	18793	14183	10039	6305	15277	10005	23237	12502	11423	9068	3417	41087	29475	9554	8049	11127	9421	45453	37207	34432	36842	28307	13435	11819	9664	12427	7778	12774	11624	2888	10827	14204	7907	17528	7884	11080	22535	48079	34827	8925	13848	39038	10113	14313	35811	10142	8892	16265	10081	17152	12578	9073	21093
2021-09-13	16210	14220	5172	9685	13540	8107	14900	12110	5205	26020	13780	15790	13450	18620	6159	29970	43800	34040	7425	23650	14480	13820	16980	21300	42330	30790	153000	12280	27780	19020	7843	9406	42620	7513	43630	11810	75690	15270	10260	40230	9807	16970	28990	57710	9750	35790	10790	12750	12310	15300	27560	18770	25950	10750	22980	11250	14740	36260	12890	16170	11300	14400	27470	3482	21210	19180	8520	14430	37050	37170	9930	9282	7710	14060	49440	5302	18390	651	8638	6596	9129	40090	5299	68790	40180	5180	12410	45370	14810	13740	14520	7300	8932	30790	5438	23720	41730	23870	10900	40040	9930	17340	44640	12490	5637	9950	12270	8589	14330	11970	9003	8140	11500	34330	14260	14870	9740	11280	4759	12180	38640	17320	8411	13010	11720	14380	9249	8703	13120	30320	14930	11210	5813	9099	26100	14270	84710	12210	6938	14290	9416	32060	12040	6955	32350	17740	7759	21530	9286	30030	11400	14690	29470	7661	14700	9613	11410	35320	12550	12310	9533	11690	37800	11340	10060	34600	13900	13000	7964	11210	3942	10910	24380	14510	10240	11570	35460	18240	54930	25820	39460	16140	109300	53760	7997	33010	10900	11890	14120	75110	29610	18600	5768	4927	86540	14070	34960	4757	7261	8693	23580	5507	5809	12320	19940	13850	22260	9560	30340	7222	6260	3359	16700	11430	12990	42900	13890	46680	16030	21260	13430	6029	10140	19820	11110	9760	46490	16470	4961	18670	25400	7606	11300	26190	33140	12580	47730	14890	7537	37100	275	16360	6691	14320	10410	24490	23750	23700	7825	21550	17820	42400	18450	9370	14980	22600	29180	7848	17890	4804	33670	9246	10450	7354	34510	11620	8371	13050	10870	3026	3631	40140	48700	10070	6859	10610	37720	9208	10980	72060	599	25830	20490	26350	10570	9530	7443	10930	11530	29130	5045	8069	12280	8133	38360	9390	8090	10640	14010	10820	12880	22270	26140	21080	35460	10980	13900	26020	13450	9800	9361	7456	36620	27540	31950	9531	8175	39510	8429	23420	17350	26710	20500	31430	9800	8460	8545	18900	14260	10090	6326	15320	10040	23340	12580	11490	9119	3443	41170	29620	9628	8080	11170	9471	45700	37430	34520	36880	28400	13490	11860	9759	12540	7841	12850	11690	2895	10860	14300	7936	17750	7928	11190	22640	48230	35310	8969	13920	39250	10140	14380	36020	10180	8922	16320	10130	17220	12640	9115	21230
2021-09-14	16360	14350	5199	9717	13580	8207	15000	12180	5313	26210	13840	15880	13500	18740	6179	30070	43920	34160	7468	23720	14560	13880	17020	21400	42540	30900	153600	12330	27830	19100	7874	9467	42720	7538	43820	11870	75960	15330	10320	40380	9835	17090	29200	57810	9800	35940	10860	12790	12340	15350	27660	18930	26070	10810	23070	11320	14800	36400	12980	16280	11330	14500	27620	3519	21290	19260	8534	14500	37220	37340	9980	9343	7753	14090	50040	5379	18470	662	8721	6633	9169	40560	5356	69130	40360	5217	12490	45580	14890	13790	14580	7340	9008	30970	5470	23910	41920	24090	10960	40160	10080	17510	44800	12610	5686	10070	12520	8663	14400	12080	9103	8186	11620	34580	14330	14940	9757	11380	4778	12250	38760	17380	8439	13110	11830	14560	9320	8766	13250	30680	14980	11260	5862	9130	26200	14300	85500	12220	7013	14340	9458	32170	12110	7027	32390	17820	7804	21630	9345	30120	11450	14790	29580	7716	14750	9676	11510	35440	12650	12370	9607	11870	37980	11370	10130	34680	14000	13030	8113	11260	3965	11010	24470	14560	10300	11660	35710	18320	55160	25950	39610	16210	109700	53980	8055	33130	10950	11950	14320	75380	29730	18670	5782	4968	86800	14180	35060	4782	7337	8788	23660	5563	5848	12420	20070	13960	22340	9670	30400	7262	6320	3360	16830	11510	13070	43090	13980	46830	16120	21410	13600	6104	10170	19910	11190	9810	47240	16560	4992	18700	25470	7643	11300	26290	33290	12670	47930	14950	7575	37190	275	16440	6785	14360	10450	24660	23900	23850	7891	21620	17930	42520	18530	9403	15060	22710	29360	7865	17990	4824	33760	9266	10470	7424	34690	11680	8418	13110	10910	3048	3663	40300	48880	10120	6939	10670	37880	9280	11020	72370	603	25990	20560	26480	10590	9670	7486	11020	11580	29200	5128	8100	12390	8167	38900	9443	8128	10730	14060	10970	12940	22350	26270	21130	35580	11040	14010	26090	13510	9830	9401	7527	36780	27650	32110	9593	8200	39660	8481	23530	17380	26960	20530	31580	9820	8497	8656	19010	14310	10160	6336	15390	10090	23420	12640	11620	9150	3483	41310	29740	9689	8122	11190	9548	45900	37600	34640	36930	28510	13550	11910	9825	12610	7888	12910	11830	2927	11020	14360	8004	17980	7990	11280	22710	48370	35580	9035	14010	39420	10190	14500	36180	10230	8977	16400	10180	17320	12670	9161	21320
2021-09-15	16510	14500	5220	9763	13630	8292	15090	12260	5403	26400	13890	15950	13550	18820	6202	30150	44050	34300	7508	23800	14630	13930	17060	21490	42730	30990	154100	12380	27890	19190	7908	9518	42820	7558	43980	11920	76180	15380	10370	40490	9862	17190	29350	57890	9850	36070	10910	12830	12360	15380	27730	19100	26210	10860	23150	11380	14850	36530	13060	16370	11350	14590	27750	3557	21390	19330	8546	14570	37390	37520	10020	9387	7792	14120	50580	5445	18550	670	8816	6668	9219	40890	5400	69420	40520	5246	12540	45760	14960	13850	14630	7377	9079	31100	5498	24080	42100	24250	11010	40270	10190	17670	44950	12730	5723	10160	12710	8717	14460	12170	9191	8222	11730	34790	14380	15020	9768	11450	4800	12310	38870	17430	8466	13200	11920	14710	9370	8820	13360	31040	15030	11300	5897	9167	26300	14330	86270	12220	7070	14390	9501	32260	12170	7099	32420	17890	7842	21710	9399	30210	11480	14880	29680	7761	14790	9723	11580	35540	12730	12420	9671	12070	38130	11430	10190	34770	14090	13060	8263	11320	3993	11090	24550	14610	10360	11720	35910	18390	55370	26060	39730	16290	110100	54190	8099	33230	11000	12000	14500	75630	29840	18730	5800	4998	87060	14280	35150	4807	7401	8864	23740	5603	5884	12500	20170	14070	22420	9790	30460	7295	6365	3369	16960	11570	13140	43260	14060	46950	16210	21550	13760	6165	10200	20000	11250	9860	47860	16640	5019	18730	25560	7678	11330	26410	33430	12740	48080	15010	7610	37300	275	16510	6856	14400	10500	24780	24010	23960	7957	21690	18020	42630	18600	9437	15130	22850	29540	7886	18080	4843	33850	9289	10500	7472	34850	11740	8456	13160	10940	3068	3689	40430	49030	10170	7011	10700	38010	9337	11050	72640	606	26140	20630	26600	10600	9790	7521	11090	11630	29270	5189	8134	12470	8204	39330	9492	8165	10810	14110	11070	13000	22430	26400	21180	35680	11080	14090	26180	13570	9870	9439	7593	36940	27750	32260	9648	8226	39780	8524	23630	17400	27240	20560	31720	9860	8531	8734	19120	14350	10220	6348	15450	10130	23480	12680	11710	9190	3516	41420	29850	9734	8158	11220	9612	46070	37740	34740	36970	28610	13610	11960	9867	12670	7924	12950	11930	2948	11180	14420	8054	18170	8044	11340	22780	48510	35780	9090	14090	39570	10240	14600	36320	10270	9021	16460	10220	17410	12720	9204	21390
2021-09-16	16670	14650	5238	9816	13680	8368	15170	12330	5483	26580	13950	16010	13590	18890	6226	30230	44190	34430	7547	23850	14700	13990	17100	21560	42910	31070	154500	12440	27950	19280	7943	9564	42930	7581	44120	11960	76390	15430	10420	40580	9888	17280	29470	58070	9900	36190	10940	12860	12380	15410	27810	19260	26310	10910	23220	11450	14900	36670	13130	16460	11380	14680	27870	3593	21490	19390	8557	14640	37560	37690	10070	9424	7831	14160	51030	5505	18620	676	8893	6701	9272	41140	5437	69710	40710	5271	12590	45910	15040	13910	14670	7413	9152	31210	5525	24230	42250	24390	11050	40360	10300	17810	45080	12840	5755	10240	12860	8755	14520	12240	9271	8259	11850	34980	14430	15100	9779	11510	4822	12360	38960	17480	8492	13270	11980	14850	9417	8873	13480	31440	15080	11340	5928	9206	26400	14350	86940	12260	7117	14430	9545	32350	12230	7191	32450	17960	7877	21780	9450	30290	11520	14960	29780	7802	14840	9760	11650	35640	12820	12460	9729	12230	38260	11490	10240	34840	14160	13090	8396	11370	4023	11160	24620	14650	10420	11770	36070	18450	55570	26160	39840	16350	110500	54380	8135	33320	11050	12050	14670	75870	29950	18790	5820	5024	87290	14360	35240	4832	7457	8930	23810	5635	5918	12560	20270	14180	22490	9880	30510	7325	6403	3382	17080	11630	13190	43410	14130	47060	16300	21680	13930	6220	10240	20070	11310	9910	48420	16720	5042	18750	25650	7710	11360	26500	33580	12800	48230	15070	7644	37410	275	16560	6927	14440	10550	24890	24100	24060	8022	21750	18100	42730	18670	9471	15190	22970	29730	7908	18150	4861	33930	9314	10520	7509	35000	11800	8487	13210	10960	3086	3710	40560	49180	10220	7078	10730	38140	9386	11090	72870	610	26290	20680	26700	10640	9900	7552	11150	11680	29330	5238	8171	12530	8243	39730	9538	8202	10870	14160	11160	13040	22500	26480	21240	35770	11120	14160	26260	13620	9920	9476	7673	37090	27850	32390	9698	8250	39920	8561	23710	17420	27450	20590	31850	9890	8563	8793	19220	14400	10270	6370	15500	10170	23540	12730	11790	9234	3545	41520	29970	9777	8192	11260	9668	46230	37870	34840	37000	28700	13660	12010	9905	12730	7954	12990	12020	2962	11320	14470	8094	18370	8093	11400	22860	48670	36000	9138	14170	39700	10270	14690	36470	10300	9057	16520	10270	17480	12770	9246	21460
2021-09-17	16780	14810	5255	9870	13730	8442	15250	12410	5528	26770	14000	16070	13630	18970	6251	30300	44300	34570	7586	23900	14760	14040	17150	21630	43080	31150	154900	12510	27980	19370	7979	9608	43020	7600	44260	12000	76570	15470	10460	40680	9914	17370	29590	58240	9940	36310	10980	12900	12400	15440	27870	19400	26420	10950	23290	11510	14940	36800	13200	16540	11400	14770	27990	3630	21590	19450	8568	14720	37740	37860	10110	9459	7869	14200	51460	5564	18690	682	8952	6734	9326	41370	5474	69990	40880	5296	12630	46060	15110	13950	14710	7449	9201	31320	5551	24370	42400	24510	11090	40440	10410	17950	45180	12960	5786	10300	13010	8793	14570	12310	9369	8282	11940	35170	14480	15190	9790	11580	4845	12410	39060	17510	8519	13340	12050	14960	9461	8921	13590	31780	15120	11370	5952	9246	26480	14380	87550	12280	7163	14470	9589	32430	12280	7257	32480	18030	7911	21850	9502	30370	11550	15040	29870	7841	14880	9799	11710	35730	12880	12510	9786	12370	38380	11550	10290	34890	14230	13130	8501	11420	4053	11220	24680	14700	10480	11820	36220	18510	55760	26250	39930	16400	110800	54540	8169	33410	11100	12100	14840	76070	30060	18840	5841	5048	87480	14420	35320	4856	7511	8993	23880	5664	5952	12610	20370	14280	22570	9950	30570	7354	6440	3395	17210	11690	13250	43570	14200	47170	16370	21800	14070	6273	10270	20140	11360	9950	48860	16800	5071	18780	25740	7743	11390	26570	33710	12860	48350	15130	7678	37490	277	16610	6985	14470	10600	25000	24190	24150	8088	21810	18180	42840	18740	9506	15240	23010	29860	7932	18220	4879	34000	9340	10540	7544	35120	11860	8518	13270	11000	3105	3725	40660	49320	10270	7145	10760	38260	9434	11130	73100	613	26430	20740	26800	10660	10010	7583	11210	11720	29390	5285	8208	12600	8283	40110	9584	8238	10930	14200	11240	13090	22580	26570	21300	35860	11160	14230	26330	13680	9970	9513	7726	37230	27940	32530	9747	8274	40050	8598	23780	17450	27630	20620	31950	9930	8595	8848	19320	14430	10330	6402	15540	10200	23600	12770	11870	9279	3574	41620	30060	9822	8224	11290	9723	46380	37990	34930	37020	28780	13720	12050	9940	12770	7979	13030	12110	2975	11430	14520	8132	18530	8141	11460	22910	48770	36190	9185	14240	39810	10300	14770	36590	10340	9092	16580	10300	17560	12820	9287	21520
2021-09-18	16880	14970	5271	9929	13780	8512	15330	12490	5562	26950	14030	16120	13650	19010	6277	30370	44400	34700	7624	23940	14820	14090	17190	21690	43250	31230	155200	12570	28010	19470	8016	9650	43070	7608	44340	12020	76730	15520	10500	40740	9940	17450	29690	58280	9970	36410	11000	12930	12410	15460	27920	19500	26480	10990	23360	11550	14960	36940	13280	16620	11430	14860	28100	3666	21690	19510	8578	14790	37910	38030	10150	9489	7906	14250	51760	5620	18760	688	9026	6766	9383	41560	5507	70170	41000	5318	12680	46200	15180	13990	14750	7485	9253	31410	5576	24500	42540	24600	11120	40520	10460	18060	45270	13070	5814	10360	13140	8821	14620	12380	9417	8303	12000	35350	14510	15280	9790	11630	4870	12460	39150	17540	8545	13410	12100	15030	9496	8956	13690	32030	15170	11400	5960	9288	26550	14400	87840	12280	7203	14520	9633	32510	12330	7320	32510	18090	7944	21910	9552	30440	11580	15120	29970	7877	14930	9815	11760	35820	12930	12550	9840	12460	38490	11620	10340	34940	14270	13160	8551	11470	4085	11280	24740	14740	10540	11840	36310	18560	55950	26340	39990	16450	111000	54670	8200	33470	11150	12140	15000	76240	30160	18880	5863	5069	87600	14450	35400	4881	7562	9051	23940	5689	5985	12670	20470	14350	22640	10010	30630	7381	6472	3410	17330	11750	13310	43720	14270	47270	16440	21920	14160	6322	10310	20190	11410	10000	49140	16870	5089	18800	25800	7774	11430	26620	33820	12910	48420	15200	7710	37560	279	16650	7026	14510	10660	25080	24270	24230	8155	21860	18250	42930	18810	9541	15300	23060	29990	7956	18280	4897	34050	9367	10560	7573	35210	11910	8546	13320	11020	3123	3733	40730	49410	10320	7210	10780	38340	9477	11170	73270	617	26560	20780	26900	10660	10110	7612	11270	11780	29440	5325	8246	12650	8323	40300	9629	8275	10980	14250	11310	13120	22660	26630	21360	35890	11200	14290	26410	13740	10020	9550	7769	37370	28040	32660	9794	8299	40140	8631	23850	17470	27760	20660	32020	9970	8626	8894	19420	14470	10380	6406	15590	10240	23630	12800	11940	9326	3600	41700	30130	9855	8256	11330	9774	46490	38090	35020	37030	28840	13780	12090	9960	12800	8001	13070	12180	2984	11520	14560	8165	18650	8187	11490	22960	48870	36270	9229	14310	39900	10340	14840	36680	10370	9124	16640	10320	17630	12880	9327	21560
2021-09-19	16980	15140	5286	9990	13840	8580	15410	12570	5595	27130	14060	16160	13670	19080	6303	30440	44510	34840	7662	23980	14890	14140	17230	21750	43420	31310	155500	12640	28050	19560	8053	9691	43140	7627	44420	12050	76880	15560	10560	40810	9965	17530	29790	58310	10020	36520	11030	12960	12440	15490	27960	19600	26560	11030	23430	11590	14980	37070	13350	16700	11450	14950	28210	3702	21800	19570	8588	14860	38090	38210	10190	9518	7944	14290	52040	5674	18830	693	9056	6798	9440	41740	5539	70400	41120	5339	12720	46330	15250	14020	14780	7520	9287	31510	5601	24630	42690	24670	11160	40620	10510	18150	45370	13180	5841	10420	13270	8853	14670	12440	9464	8329	12080	35530	14540	15370	9802	11690	4894	12510	39240	17570	8571	13470	12150	15140	9534	8990	13800	32260	15220	11420	5972	9330	26620	14420	88270	12290	7241	14560	9678	32590	12370	7363	32530	18160	7976	21970	9602	30520	11620	15200	30060	7913	14980	9828	11820	35900	12990	12590	9893	12540	38600	11690	10380	35010	14330	13180	8570	11520	4118	11340	24800	14780	10600	11880	36410	18620	56130	26430	40050	16500	111300	54810	8228	33530	11200	12190	15170	76400	30260	18920	5885	5090	87750	14500	35480	4906	7611	9106	24000	5712	6018	12710	20560	14420	22720	10060	30690	7407	6502	3426	17450	11800	13360	43860	14330	47370	16490	22040	14240	6371	10340	20240	11460	10040	49480	16950	5110	18830	25890	7806	11470	26680	33920	12960	48510	15270	7743	37630	281	16690	7062	14550	10720	25140	24340	24310	8221	21910	18320	43030	18870	9577	15350	23200	30080	7981	18340	4914	34110	9394	10580	7599	35320	11970	8573	13370	11050	3141	3749	40790	49510	10370	7275	10800	38420	9519	11210	73450	620	26700	20820	26990	10660	10210	7640	11330	11830	29500	5363	8285	12700	8364	40530	9673	8311	11040	14300	11380	13170	22740	26700	21420	35930	11240	14340	26470	13790	10070	9587	7832	37520	28130	32790	9840	8323	40230	8664	23920	17490	27870	20690	32110	10010	8657	8937	19530	14500	10430	6411	15630	10280	23680	12840	12010	9374	3626	41790	30210	9889	8286	11380	9824	46620	38160	35110	37090	28920	13830	12130	9983	12840	8023	13110	12250	2992	11590	14600	8196	18770	8232	11530	23000	48980	36380	9272	14380	39990	10360	14910	36770	10400	9155	16690	10350	17690	12940	9368	21600

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-13 to 2021-09-19

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-09-12	16070	14057	5156	9621	13488	8035	14821	12023	5112	25838	13684	15655	13355	18480	6132	29904	43664	33893	7385	23569	14416	13766	16926	21241	42164	30713	152421	12211	27696	18919	7805	9363	42481	7485	43367	11708	75364	15231	10203	40053	9781	16896	28892	57575	9702	35679	10680	12717	12292	15248	27440	18537	25792	10707	22908	11200	14681	36124	12804	16104	11275	14312	27361	3444	21095	19122	8506	14354	36873	36992	9884	9255	7672	14014	48678	5251	18316	646	8537	6564	9068	39902	5269	68418	39978	5159	12374	45239	14732	13645	14484	7263	8822	30564	5412	23587	41497	23618	10867	39937	9698	17145	44419	12380	5610	9892	12144	8506	14277	11908	8867	8088	11362	34155	14176	14778	9717	11228	4734	12132	38555	17256	8384	12945	11671	14145	9147	8618	13008	29910	14885	11154	5723	9056	25968	14249	83635	12177	6902	14243	9371	31980	11993	6864	32317	17671	7726	21471	9233	29951	11368	14613	29375	7625	14657	9507	11356	35235	12435	12268	9480	11617	37696	11263	10017	34504	13741	12982	7851	11157	3908	10853	24315	14463	10175	11460	35125	18189	54746	25731	39280	16065	108691	53539	7970	32897	10848	11846	13953	74750	29505	18499	5744	4907	86200	13963	34879	4732	7213	8639	23512	5484	5776	12278	19850	13724	22181	9392	30279	7196	6231	3346	16580	11375	12938	42743	13827	46586	15882	21139	13225	5981	10108	19720	11059	9711	45471	16396	4928	18644	25363	7575	11265	26058	33002	12532	47458	14822	7504	36986	273	16277	6556	14276	10351	24281	23680	23630	7760	21508	17744	42305	18377	9333	14924	22451	28912	7821	17827	4786	33550	9217	10424	7329	34268	11561	8345	12994	10802	3008	3587	39959	48508	10014	6791	10581	37512	9167	10936	71694	596	25686	20406	26252	10514	9422	7415	10873	11481	29073	5008	8030	12223	8092	37589	9345	8052	10584	13966	10760	12811	22185	25983	21019	35260	10944	13842	25927	13390	9745	9323	7404	36473	27445	31816	9485	8148	39341	8394	23351	17332	26303	20470	31203	9754	8428	8503	18793	14183	10039	6305	15277	10005	23237	12502	11423	9068	3417	41087	29475	9554	8049	11127	9421	45453	37207	34432	36842	28307	13435	11819	9664	12427	7778	12774	11624	2888	10827	14204	7907	17528	7884	11080	22535	48079	34827	8925	13848	39038	10113	14313	35811	10142	8892	16265	10081	17152	12578	9073	21093
2021-09-13	16240	14330	5172	9690	13550	8117	14890	12120	5195	26010	13740	15730	13400	18570	6158	29970	43810	34040	7423	23640	14480	13820	17000	21300	42370	30780	152900	12280	27770	19010	7850	9412	42600	7512	43510	11750	75580	15270	10260	40160	9804	16970	28990	57700	9750	35780	10740	12750	12330	15290	27520	18700	25900	10750	22970	11250	14720	36300	12870	16250	11300	14410	27470	3480	21200	19180	8525	14420	37090	37160	9920	9287	7708	14070	49230	5308	18380	651	8614	6595	9135	40120	5298	68750	40150	5178	12420	45360	14810	13710	14520	7301	8884	30720	5437	23690	41700	23760	10900	40070	9820	17320	44560	12500	5637	9950	12280	8565	14330	11970	8960	8126	11520	34320	14230	14890	9747	11290	4759	12180	38640	17300	8411	13010	11720	14330	9200	8676	13100	30380	14950	11190	5759	9101	26060	14300	84440	12210	6937	14280	9409	32050	12040	6931	32380	17730	7761	21530	9283	30020	11400	14700	29450	7660	14700	9541	11400	35320	12520	12300	9533	11800	37800	11340	10060	34600	13820	13010	7970	11210	3937	10900	24370	14510	10240	11530	35290	18240	54960	25810	39400	16140	109100	53790	7996	32980	10900	11890	14060	75000	29600	18550	5768	4928	86430	14030	34970	4756	7257	8684	23570	5511	5808	12320	19930	13820	22260	9520	30360	7222	6256	3378	16690	11430	13000	42850	13890	46690	15970	21240	13380	6019	10150	19790	11110	9760	46090	16470	4954	18710	25470	7603	11350	26140	33150	12580	47600	14890	7534	37100	278	16340	6619	14320	10440	24400	23800	23720	7821	21570	17820	42390	18440	9370	14980	22690	29100	7848	17890	4802	33660	9245	10450	7357	34430	11610	8370	13050	10850	3026	3615	40080	48670	10060	6863	10640	37650	9207	10980	71960	606	25820	20460	26340	10560	9530	7442	10930	11530	29130	5042	8068	12280	8133	38080	9391	8090	10640	14020	10820	12860	22260	26080	21080	35360	10980	13900	26020	13450	9810	9361	7495	36620	27550	31930	9529	8175	39470	8436	23420	17370	26500	20550	31350	9800	8460	8542	18900	14230	10090	6328	15310	10040	23310	12550	11490	9117	3447	41160	29570	9604	8079	11200	9469	45650	37350	34520	36930	28410	13490	11860	9707	12490	7812	12830	11690	2904	10960	14270	7935	17740	7930	11160	22600	48230	35030	8971	13910	39190	10140	14390	35940	10170	8920	16320	10120	17210	12640	9116	21160
2021-09-14	16430	14590	5191	9750	13610	8210	14970	12200	5290	26190	13790	15800	13460	18670	6184	30050	43940	34190	7460	23710	14550	13870	17060	21380	42600	30850	153300	12340	27830	19100	7900	9462	42710	7538	43650	11810	75820	15320	10320	40280	9833	17070	29100	57880	9800	35910	10790	12780	12390	15330	27620	18880	26020	10790	23050	11320	14770	36500	12920	16440	11330	14500	27600	3527	21300	19240	8562	14480	37270	37370	9970	9333	7749	14110	49830	5375	18460	658	8705	6631	9203	40350	5340	69090	40340	5203	12470	45520	14890	13770	14560	7339	8960	30880	5462	23840	41880	23940	10950	40240	9950	17510	44710	12630	5670	10010	12450	8629	14380	12040	9058	8169	11680	34510	14290	14980	9781	11350	4783	12240	38750	17360	8435	13100	11770	14540	9260	8736	13190	30800	15040	11240	5802	9143	26160	14350	85350	12250	6989	14330	9452	32130	12090	7014	32460	17800	7801	21600	9337	30090	11440	14800	29550	7701	14750	9583	11460	35420	12610	12350	9603	12010	37930	11410	10110	34710	13910	13060	8108	11260	3972	10970	24440	14550	10310	11600	35490	18300	55170	25920	39520	16200	109600	54030	8033	33070	10950	11940	14180	75270	29700	18620	5790	4956	86680	14100	35070	4784	7315	8762	23650	5549	5846	12380	20030	13910	22340	9640	30470	7255	6297	3411	16810	11490	13060	42980	13970	46800	16080	21360	13560	6064	10190	19860	11160	9800	46780	16560	4983	18790	25580	7639	11430	26240	33290	12640	47760	14960	7570	37200	283	16410	6694	14350	10520	24540	23950	23830	7892	21640	17910	42500	18520	9407	15050	22940	29280	7871	17960	4823	33760	9274	10480	7394	34610	11670	8404	13100	10880	3048	3641	40220	48830	10120	6940	10700	37800	9263	11020	72260	617	25970	20510	26450	10610	9650	7477	11000	11590	29220	5087	8110	12350	8179	38590	9439	8128	10700	14060	10910	12920	22350	26180	21150	35450	11020	13970	26100	13510	9870	9403	7591	36780	27650	32070	9585	8208	39630	8479	23500	17410	26750	20680	31500	9840	8496	8598	19020	14280	10150	6355	15350	10080	23390	12610	11570	9160	3477	41240	29670	9659	8112	11300	9526	45820	37500	34620	37030	28510	13550	11900	9756	12560	7852	12880	11780	2922	11130	14320	7974	17990	7984	11240	22670	48350	35250	9018	14000	39350	10180	14480	36060	10210	8959	16390	10160	17290	12700	9167	21240
2021-09-15	16610	14810	5209	9820	13660	8296	15050	12280	5380	26370	13840	15860	13510	18760	6211	30130	44070	34340	7493	23770	14610	13920	17110	21450	42820	30910	153800	12410	27890	19200	7949	9505	42810	7560	43790	11860	76050	15360	10380	40390	9861	17160	29200	58040	9850	36030	10830	12810	12440	15370	27700	19060	26140	10830	23120	11380	14820	36710	12980	16620	11350	14600	27720	3571	21400	19290	8594	14550	37450	37570	10020	9374	7788	14160	50370	5438	18540	665	8797	6664	9269	40560	5378	69390	40510	5226	12510	45670	14970	13830	14610	7373	9032	31020	5486	23970	42050	24090	10990	40390	10060	17680	44840	12760	5700	10060	12590	8681	14430	12110	9148	8206	11840	34690	14350	15080	9808	11410	4808	12290	38840	17410	8459	13170	11820	14720	9311	8790	13280	31220	15120	11280	5836	9189	26270	14410	86260	12300	7034	14370	9495	32210	12130	7094	32540	17860	7838	21670	9390	30170	11470	14880	29630	7740	14800	9621	11520	35510	12700	12400	9667	12230	38060	11480	10160	34810	13990	13100	8244	11310	4007	11030	24500	14600	10370	11650	35670	18360	55370	26020	39630	16260	110000	54240	8066	33160	11000	11990	14290	75520	29800	18680	5812	4974	86920	14170	35160	4812	7368	8830	23720	5583	5882	12440	20120	14000	22420	9760	30570	7285	6331	3444	16930	11550	13110	43120	14040	46910	16180	21480	13720	6107	10230	19940	11210	9850	47370	16650	5008	18870	25700	7673	11500	26340	33430	12690	47890	15030	7605	37310	289	16470	6759	14390	10590	24640	24090	23930	7961	21710	17990	42600	18590	9445	15100	23230	29460	7895	18020	4843	33850	9300	10500	7418	34770	11720	8432	13150	10920	3067	3665	40340	48940	10180	7012	10750	37940	9312	11070	72530	627	26120	20560	26550	10650	9770	7507	11060	11640	29300	5127	8152	12400	8225	39020	9491	8164	10760	14110	10980	12970	22430	26290	21220	35540	11050	14040	26190	13570	9930	9443	7684	36940	27760	32190	9638	8236	39770	8518	23570	17440	26990	20790	31640	9880	8530	8645	19130	14330	10210	6381	15390	10120	23460	12660	11640	9203	3503	41310	29760	9707	8141	11400	9576	45960	37650	34720	37120	28610	13600	11940	9797	12610	7889	12930	11860	2936	11290	14370	8008	18200	8030	11300	22740	48470	35440	9063	14070	39490	10200	14560	36180	10250	8992	16460	10200	17360	12760	9214	21300
2021-09-16	16800	15030	5225	9880	13710	8381	15130	12360	5464	26550	13890	15910	13550	18850	6239	30200	44210	34490	7527	23830	14680	13970	17160	21520	43040	30980	154200	12480	27940	19310	7996	9546	42920	7584	43920	11900	76260	15400	10430	40480	9889	17250	29300	58220	9890	36140	10860	12850	12480	15400	27780	19230	26240	10870	23190	11450	14860	36900	13030	16800	11370	14700	27830	3615	21500	19340	8623	14600	37640	37770	10060	9412	7826	14200	50870	5498	18610	671	8884	6697	9336	40760	5414	69690	40700	5248	12560	45810	15040	13890	14650	7407	9103	31150	5510	24100	42200	24230	11030	40540	10170	17840	44980	12880	5728	10110	12730	8725	14480	12180	9227	8241	11990	34860	14400	15180	9833	11470	4834	12340	38940	17460	8483	13240	11870	14890	9360	8843	13380	31630	15200	11320	5869	9236	26370	14450	87060	12340	7076	14420	9539	32280	12170	7177	32610	17930	7873	21730	9441	30230	11500	14970	29710	7776	14850	9652	11570	35590	12780	12440	9728	12410	38170	11550	10200	34910	14060	13130	8369	11350	4040	11090	24560	14640	10440	11700	35820	18410	55560	26110	39740	16310	110300	54440	8097	33250	11060	12040	14400	75770	29890	18730	5835	4997	87140	14240	35250	4839	7424	8892	23780	5613	5918	12490	20220	14100	22500	9870	30670	7314	6367	3477	17040	11610	13150	43250	14110	47010	16270	21590	13890	6150	10280	20000	11260	9890	47920	16730	5029	18960	25820	7706	11570	26430	33570	12750	48030	15100	7639	37420	294	16530	6823	14420	10670	24740	24220	24020	8025	21780	18070	42690	18660	9482	15170	23490	29650	7921	18080	4863	33930	9332	10520	7444	34920	11780	8458	13200	10950	3085	3686	40470	49070	10230	7086	10810	38080	9359	11110	72780	637	26260	20610	26650	10700	9880	7537	11120	11700	29380	5164	8196	12450	8270	39440	9540	8204	10810	14160	11060	13010	22520	26380	21290	35610	11080	14100	26270	13630	9980	9482	7781	37090	27850	32300	9687	8283	39910	8554	23640	17480	27210	20900	31770	9930	8563	8686	19240	14370	10260	6407	15420	10160	23520	12710	11700	9247	3529	41370	29860	9752	8171	11490	9623	46090	37790	34810	37210	28710	13660	11980	9836	12670	7924	12980	11940	2949	11440	14410	8040	18410	8074	11360	22810	48590	35640	9101	14140	39630	10230	14640	36300	10280	9022	16530	10240	17420	12830	9257	21370
2021-09-17	16960	15230	5240	9950	13760	8460	15220	12450	5533	26720	13940	15970	13590	18930	6266	30260	44320	34640	7559	23880	14740	14020	17230	21580	43230	31030	154600	12550	27980	19410	8044	9586	43010	7604	44050	11940	76470	15430	10480	40580	9916	17340	29390	58440	9940	36250	10900	12880	12530	15430	27850	19390	26340	10910	23260	11510	14900	37090	13080	16970	11390	14780	27950	3655	21590	19390	8655	14660	37810	37970	10110	9448	7863	14240	51380	5557	18680	677	8963	6731	9399	40950	5449	69990	40870	5269	12600	45950	15120	13940	14690	7443	9172	31270	5533	24230	42340	24370	11070	40680	10280	18000	45090	13010	5756	10160	12890	8766	14530	12250	9323	8267	12120	35040	14460	15260	9859	11530	4860	12390	39030	17500	8504	13310	11910	15050	9412	8896	13470	31990	15290	11360	5904	9276	26460	14500	88000	12390	7116	14460	9583	32350	12210	7253	32680	17990	7908	21790	9491	30300	11540	15050	29780	7812	14900	9692	11610	35670	12850	12490	9787	12570	38290	11610	10240	35000	14130	13170	8484	11390	4071	11150	24620	14680	10500	11750	35970	18470	55750	26200	39840	16360	110700	54600	8129	33330	11110	12090	14500	75990	29990	18790	5858	5019	87340	14310	35320	4866	7473	8961	23850	5642	5954	12540	20320	14180	22580	9980	30770	7342	6397	3511	17150	11670	13190	43370	14180	47110	16360	21700	14050	6193	10320	20060	11310	9940	48570	16810	5058	19030	25930	7739	11630	26510	33690	12790	48140	15170	7674	37510	299	16590	6888	14460	10740	24830	24340	24110	8089	21840	18150	42790	18730	9520	15220	23730	29810	7946	18130	4883	34000	9358	10550	7475	35060	11830	8483	13250	10980	3104	3704	40580	49170	10290	7157	10860	38210	9404	11150	73030	647	26400	20650	26740	10750	9990	7566	11180	11750	29450	5200	8239	12500	8316	39920	9586	8239	10870	14200	11130	13050	22600	26470	21360	35690	11120	14160	26350	13690	10030	9522	7857	37230	27960	32410	9736	8333	40040	8588	23710	17520	27400	21000	31890	9960	8596	8718	19350	14420	10310	6435	15460	10200	23590	12760	11750	9293	3551	41430	29930	9802	8199	11590	9668	46210	37920	34900	37290	28790	13710	12020	9874	12710	7957	13020	12010	2961	11570	14450	8071	18590	8117	11420	22880	48660	35840	9137	14210	39750	10250	14710	36400	10320	9054	16590	10270	17490	12880	9308	21430
2021-09-18	17110	15410	5254	10020	13800	8546	15300	12520	5608	26870	13980	16020	13630	19010	6294	30330	44420	34780	7589	23940	14800	14070	17290	21650	43410	31090	155000	12620	28020	19510	8092	9623	43090	7621	44180	11980	76670	15460	10520	40670	9943	17420	29480	58580	9980	36370	10930	12910	12570	15460	27910	19540	26440	10950	23320	11570	14940	37290	13130	17150	11410	14870	28060	3699	21680	19440	8682	14710	37970	38160	10150	9483	7900	14280	51820	5613	18760	682	9047	6763	9470	41120	5483	70230	41020	5291	12630	46090	15190	13990	14720	7476	9240	31390	5556	24350	42480	24500	11100	40810	10380	18160	45210	13120	5782	10200	13020	8806	14570	12310	9403	8297	12250	35200	14500	15340	9881	11580	4886	12440	39130	17540	8529	13380	11950	15220	9457	8939	13560	32360	15370	11400	5932	9319	26550	14540	88710	12420	7155	14500	9627	32410	12250	7330	32750	18040	7942	21850	9542	30360	11570	15130	29870	7848	14950	9726	11660	35750	12910	12530	9845	12740	38410	11680	10280	35090	14210	13210	8596	11430	4107	11210	24680	14720	10560	11790	36110	18520	55930	26290	39920	16390	111000	54730	8158	33420	11160	12130	14590	76220	30080	18840	5882	5037	87510	14370	35400	4893	7523	9016	23920	5671	5990	12590	20410	14260	22660	10090	30870	7370	6427	3542	17260	11730	13230	43500	14240	47200	16450	21810	14190	6236	10360	20120	11350	9980	49050	16890	5078	19110	26040	7772	11690	26590	33800	12840	48270	15240	7709	37600	304	16650	6953	14480	10810	24910	24470	24190	8150	21890	18220	42880	18810	9558	15270	23960	29970	7972	18170	4902	34060	9388	10570	7494	35200	11880	8508	13300	11020	3122	3721	40680	49240	10340	7223	10900	38330	9449	11200	73260	656	26540	20700	26840	10800	10100	7595	11230	11800	29510	5235	8277	12550	8361	40270	9630	8278	10920	14240	11200	13080	22690	26550	21430	35740	11150	14220	26420	13750	10070	9562	7931	37370	28050	32510	9785	8382	40180	8618	23780	17550	27610	21100	32000	10000	8629	8749	19450	14460	10360	6457	15480	10240	23650	12810	11810	9336	3571	41480	29980	9847	8224	11680	9713	46310	38050	34990	37370	28880	13760	12060	9908	12750	7989	13070	12090	2974	11690	14490	8101	18760	8161	11460	22940	48740	36020	9171	14290	39870	10270	14790	36480	10340	9081	16660	10300	17550	12940	9351	21490
2021-09-19	17230	15560	5267	10090	13850	8621	15380	12600	5682	27040	14020	16060	13670	19100	6323	30390	44530	34920	7621	23990	14860	14120	17340	21710	43600	31140	155400	12690	28070	19620	8140	9663	43180	7641	44290	12030	76870	15490	10570	40770	9971	17500	29560	58720	10020	36480	10960	12940	12620	15500	27990	19700	26530	10990	23380	11630	14970	37480	13180	17300	11430	14960	28170	3738	21770	19480	8709	14760	38130	38350	10190	9518	7936	14310	52200	5670	18830	688	9125	6799	9534	41290	5517	70470	41180	5312	12660	46220	15260	14040	14760	7507	9306	31530	5579	24460	42640	24620	11140	40960	10470	18300	45340	13230	5809	10240	13130	8839	14620	12380	9466	8327	12350	35360	14550	15430	9910	11640	4912	12490	39220	17590	8554	13450	12000	15380	9509	8988	13660	32660	15450	11430	5962	9364	26640	14580	89350	12470	7193	14540	9671	32480	12290	7403	32820	18100	7976	21900	9592	30420	11600	15210	29940	7884	15000	9757	11700	35840	12990	12570	9904	12880	38510	11760	10320	35180	14280	13240	8684	11480	4138	11260	24740	14750	10630	11840	36260	18580	56110	26380	40010	16430	111300	54880	8185	33500	11220	12180	14690	76450	30170	18890	5906	5058	87710	14430	35480	4920	7578	9081	23980	5699	6026	12640	20510	14330	22740	10180	30970	7398	6459	3573	17370	11790	13270	43630	14300	47300	16530	21920	14330	6278	10400	20170	11390	10030	49460	16980	5097	19210	26150	7804	11760	26670	33920	12890	48380	15290	7743	37690	310	16700	7008	14510	10870	24980	24590	24270	8206	21950	18300	42980	18880	9595	15320	24170	30110	7999	18220	4922	34140	9414	10590	7511	35350	11940	8533	13340	11050	3139	3740	40790	49320	10400	7292	10950	38450	9493	11240	73500	664	26680	20740	26940	10840	10190	7623	11290	11850	29580	5269	8319	12610	8406	40590	9677	8315	10970	14280	11260	13120	22780	26650	21500	35800	11180	14280	26500	13810	10110	9601	8006	37520	28150	32610	9837	8422	40300	8649	23840	17590	27790	21200	32120	10040	8661	8773	19560	14500	10410	6479	15510	10280	23700	12850	11870	9374	3592	41530	30060	9889	8251	11770	9756	46410	38180	35080	37460	28960	13820	12100	9943	12810	8022	13120	12160	2986	11800	14530	8130	18940	8207	11520	23000	48820	36210	9204	14360	39980	10300	14850	36570	10370	9112	16720	10330	17610	13000	9396	21550

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-09-12 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-09-12