COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-09-18

	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	2021-09-04	2021-09-04	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-08-26	2021-08-10	2021-08-09	2021-08-15	2021-08-31	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-12	2021-07-07	12-29	2021-09-05	12-27	2021-07-08	2021-09-06	2021-07-07	2021-05-10	2021-07-06	2021-01-01	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-09-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-28	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-08-23	2021-07-07	2021-07-28	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-06-20	2021-08-23	2021-07-07	2021-09-04	2021-07-07	2021-08-10	2021-07-07	2021-08-26	2021-09-07	2021-07-06	2021-08-10	2021-08-28	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-22	2021-08-24	2021-07-07	2021-07-27	--	2021-07-06	2021-09-06	2021-08-10	2021-07-07	2021-07-02	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-01-02	2021-07-07	2021-08-13	2021-07-07	2021-08-10	2021-08-03	2021-07-07	2021-08-13	2021-06-21	2021-07-08	2021-09-04	2021-07-06	2021-08-10	2021-08-18	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-06-13	2021-07-06	2021-08-22	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-09-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-06	2021-08-10	2021-08-25	2021-07-08	2021-08-24	2021-08-13	2021-09-04	2021-09-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-07-04	2021-07-06	2021-08-23	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-07	2021-08-24	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-31	2021-07-09	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-08-16	2021-08-13	2021-07-08	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-04	2021-08-25	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-06	2021-07-10	2021-07-07	2021-06-23	2021-08-22	2021-07-08	2021-09-04	2021-08-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-10	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	12-27	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-01-03	2021-07-03	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-21	2021-09-03	12-26	2021-08-29	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-10	2021-07-10	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	12-08	2021-07-08	2021-08-09	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-08-10	2021-08-10	2021-07-07	2021-08-26	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-09	2021-08-29	2021-07-17	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-03	2021-07-07	2021-07-30	2021-08-27	2021-07-13	2021-08-28	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-03	2021-07-08	2021-07-25	2021-08-22	2021-07-05	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-04	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-26	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-08-29	2021-07-07	--	2021-06-22	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-06-22	2021-08-05	2021-07-07	2021-01-01	--	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-08-23	2021-07-05	12-27	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-04	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-24	2021-08-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	12-23	2021-08-10	2021-06-28	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	07-21	2021-08-09	2021-08-10	2021-07-06	2021-08-10	2021-08-18	2021-07-07	2021-08-04	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-08-09	--	2021-08-09	2021-07-06	10-04	2021-07-21	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-06-27	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-09-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-18	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-06-22	2021-07-08	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-08-14	2021-08-11	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	12-06	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-09	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-26	2021-07-07	2021-08-24	2021-08-09	2021-08-25	2021-07-07	2021-08-10	2021-08-30	2021-08-09	2021-08-25	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-08-10	2021-08-23	2021-06-29	2021-07-07	2021-08-25	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-09-05	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	2021-06-30
Peak daily increment	178	223	51	115	105	84	100	91	95	196	127	93	63	100	57	93	260	276	49	139	152	144	210	103	379	176	1249	79	157	159	83	61	208	42	484	107	478	103	58	176	68	94	218	621	60	258	94	72	97	74	161	161	158	72	159	69	60	235	115	199	101	103	227	46	132	170	67	89	269	243	82	75	69	121	552	66	142	13		114	74	720	41	607	376	53	101	229	122	140	92	53	86	246	48	206	400	191	47	269	135	184	189	135	46	141	175	62	122	88	112	65	152	295	73	110	61	90	29	82	145	105	58	110	133	178	66	58	172	419	124	67	56	82	274	123	909	95	58	63	113	163	69		229	81	84	156	57	152	61	113	143	65	146	55	69	151	102	82	73	194	197		84	130	101	71	131	56	46	89	189	84		71	247	93	271	311	301	117	707	284	51	213	80	99	125	727	114	120	41	47	442	100	169	40	71	105	124	73	37	101	122	116	274	112	196	49	39	35	23	94	116	384	105	155	101	140	161	86	94	256	78	70	600	95	35	203	228	77	96	126	322	87	264	158	37	255		131	79	56	113	145	343	203		104	83	120	297	57	114	278	58	52	140	67	213	75	69	49	207	81	47	116	70	20	31	253	255	94	83	127	195	65	96	482	24	172	67	277	94	115	49	72	68	345	88		74	68	460	58	68	77	92	106	75	303	200	152	243	70	131	141		77	56	91	243	339	240	74	69	428	57	145	101	248	151	219	83	60	144	137	116	92	41	93	78	100	105	131	101	63	226	184	59	64		79	352	191	157	313	195	111	73	70	84	38	102	94	71	155	94	46	205	70	72	138	380	351	60	83	243	59	94	185	99	63	74	76	117	120	74	138
Days since peak	14	14	72	74	74	23	39	40	34	18	73	74	74	73	74	72	72	74	73	74	73	74	73	74	68	73	263	13	265	72	12	73	131	74	260	73	73	73	13	73	73	21	73	73	74	74	73	73	75	73	74	26	73	52	72	73	90	26	73	14	73	39	73	23	11	74	39	21	73	73	74	40	73	73	27	25	73	53		74	12	39	73	78	73	73	73	73	73	75	72	73	74	259	73	36	73	39	46	73	36	89	72	14	74	39	31	73	73	73	97	74	27	74	73	11	73	73	41	73	71	73	75	74	39	24	72	25	36	14	12	73	74	74	76	74	26	73	72	72	73	73	73		73	25	73	73	18	71	74	73	73	73	75	33	36	72	40	73	76	24	73		74	70	73	87	27	72	14	41	73	70		73	73	72	73	265	73	72	73	258	77	72	73	59	15	266	20	73	73	73	73	39	70	75	73	284	72	40	72	73	39	39	73	23	73	73	40	20	63	72	74	77	73	50	22	67	21	40	73	77	72	55	27	75	74	73	76	74	73	72	74	54	73	72	20	73		88	40	73	88	44	73	260		74	73	72	73	72	73	26	75	265	72	74	75	73	76	72	72	73	73	73	73	25	41	73	74	74	269	39	82	74	72	72	424	40	39	74	39	31	73	45	75	73	40		40	74	349	59	72	74	73	73	72	83	73	73	73	73	73	73		73	73	11	73	74	75	73	72	75	73	73	73	31	73	73	88	72	40	73	74	73	35	38	73	74	73	73	286	40	73	75	72	73		73	74	73	71	74	73	72	73	73	73	23	73	25	40	24	73	39	19	40	24	73	73	72	39	26	81	73	24	73	74	73	13	72	73	74	72	80
Last total	16880	15147	5305	10163	13789	8340	15252	12477	5446	26738	13993	16047	13582	18992	6294	30215	44464	34949	7684	23922	14811	14167	17257	21620	43363	31109	154802	12668	28005	19489	8198	9557	43074	7610	44189	11935	76838	15539	10521	40542	9943	17504	29361	58234	9916	36228	10951	12939	12582	15521	27852	19696	26576	10960	23237	11655	14879	37511	13238	17132	11440	14838	28037	3696	21813	19509	8669	14747	38234	38085	10107	9428	7935	14420	50391	5457	18781	681	9133	6780	9477	41255	5404	69950	40975	5278	12587	45905	15184	13939	14738	7527	9232	31263	5619	24160	42583	24521	11029	40879	10176	17841	45052	13012	5819	10190	12678	8766	14659	12283	9185	8328	11861	35041	14538	15331	9878	11585	4857	12508	39029	17502	8598	13202	11939	14901	9354	8959	13535	31679	15613	11336	5860	9343	26559	14590	86549	12339	7136	14462	9639	32456	12324	7403	32661	18043	7931	21819	9578	30406	11536	15075	29865	7887	14909	9626	11652	35653	13029	12528	9794	12227	38352	11743	10238	35162	14245	13204	8257	11466	4163	11108	24685	14738	10672	11780	35829	18511	56011	26223	39805	16576	110678	54650	8073	33355	11229	12072	14561	76083	30048	18773	5867	5013	87233	14382	35342	4872	7523	9086	23899	5612	5992	12481	20475	14162	22588	9847	30896	7340	6438	3515	17702	11697	13238	43621	14195	47126	16570	21721	13947	6151	10441	20172	11318	10037	47419	17024	5084	18993	25982	7787	11737	26641	33981	12773	48094	15250	7686	37563	295	16682	6947	14517	10865	24838	24342	24137	8291	22008	18125	42851	18775	9622	15317	23473	30473	8071	18217	4879	33994	9381	10620	7428	35229	12065	8525	13333	11025	3093	3688	40567	49367	10328	7111	10797	38322	9382	11272	73118	628	26618	20752	26767	10762	10074	7626	11246	11808	29465	5204	8334	12513	8375	39122	9603	8305	10862	14262	11130	13123	22572	26569	21360	35708	11159	14189	26553	13941	10161	9565	7853	37417	27905	32596	9830	8284	40044	8593	23700	17544	27849	20955	31912	10065	8588	8698	19419	14470	10313	6428	15469	10244	23581	12832	11781	9473	3591	41572	30166	9908	8243	11879	9749	46476	37968	34866	37396	28807	13826	12035	9843	12667	8005	13120	11918	3020	11417	14497	8106	18458	8120	11444	22942	48835	35987	9193	14244	39802	10286	14682	36521	10312	9067	16706	10368	17444	12991	9298	21426
Last daily increment	86	95	23	82	50	27	71	64	26	120	49	49	34	82	28	31	114	147	41	47	66	51	80	51	157	51	281	70	42	62	26	31	78	18	101	30	226	46	35	58	24	14	74	171	28	80	31	29	47	32	50	103	108	26	39	49	23	62	73	44	23	59	94	27	99	47	35	51	190	121	28	20	48	67	166	26	74	3	4	26	47	192	33	207	144	10	25	80	71	37	26	33	4	82	25	88	117	102	10	113	51	69	61	74	28	42	46	30	61	31	28	23	40	110	40	74	15	63	22	64	75	29	44	38	24	73	21	54	73	172	17	18	26	36	72	40	316	33	29	24	28	58	46	28	28	39	35	48	54	71	22	80	54	36	21	8	35	61	83	44	40	56	85	67	49	81	58	21	40	46	16	25	42	34	90	39	82	38	214	46	52	63	296	126	9	52	66	23	66	147	60	38	18	2	121	49	66	20	68	27	69	16	44	32	115	76	49	48	88	21	16	20	63	48	36	124	41	74	62	60	67	26	46	66	36	42	231	87	20	128	83	31	65	65	133	33	79	55	22	65	1	69	59	26	54	66	93	46	18	68	55	81	52	38	70	87	71	45	57	5	46	17	16	11	139	67	27	54	25	16	14	77	123	51	22	51	110	25	30	171	3	133	47	86	55	81	45	53	61	127	42	39	50	34	185	27	30	45	29	67	41	36	81	43	47	23	49	79	88	52	31	45	145	50	75	71	32	104	25	45	17	34	135	94	32	26	19	92	41	31	33	18	32	42	33	39	33	23	51	92	39	30	27	65	161	84	45	51	64	57	29	32	28	41	50	61	21	58	35	26	81	31	61	40	102	232	50	60	90	38	62	95	14	19	3	55	38	55	50	54
Last week	797	1072	141	537	296	300	449	466	326	918	297	389	221	512	158	296	785	1045	297	345	377	391	327	371	1243	380	2315	441	301	550	381	193	574	118	803	224	1443	301	307	458	160	542	445	650	210	532	259	215	289	262	405	1107	762	245	312	452	197	1305	430	930	164	535	650	227	699	384	160	384	1343	1072	221	169	252	407	1680	202	458	35	533	209	402	1316	135	1514	974	115	209	628	448	281	248	262	377	684	203	584	1059	886	155	905	468	672	614	627	205	298	522	248	374	364	314	232	489	870	350	537	162	357	121	362	451	231	216	253	271	744	201	336	548	1730	677	184	134	283	584	339	2863	161	233	220	260	461	316	479	329	370	198	339	342	425	160	440	465	260	239	110	293	409	581	255	304	599	646	480	213	636	490	214	392	302	220	236	360	258	493	309	674	314	1224	484	489	504	1920	1092	100	435	370	219	631	1299	523	273	122	103	1001	406	455	139	303	409	371	125	213	200	640	444	402	448	605	139	195	169	1024	318	293	854	365	513	655	579	702	164	331	439	256	319	1934	618	154	354	602	207	466	574	974	237	621	419	178	562	19	393	381	238	506	544	652	487	475	488	370	533	389	276	389	972	1421	248	364	92	435	162	191	96	939	495	167	331	212	86	101	591	823	306	316	218	791	212	331	1383	29	919	338	497	242	637	212	365	318	393	193	294	278	277	1517	247	252	274	291	357	308	376	564	323	421	206	340	608	542	406	243	441	935	459	760	337	137	696	196	334	205	1345	490	698	302	157	189	613	286	272	124	189	235	330	318	340	384	170	458	675	338	188	709	334	996	749	410	534	491	379	207	176	236	224	334	291	130	579	288	197	910	229	353	367	747	1141	261	385	752	165	352	700	164	169	377	278	281	411	221	321
Previous peak date	07-21	07-21	12-27	12-26	12-27	07-21	12-21	12-26	07-21	12-21	12-21	12-27	12-07	12-21	12-23	12-28	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	2021-01-02	2021-01-11	11-02	12-21	10-07	12-22	11-02	12-27	10-13	10-13	12-07	2021-01-07	10-15	11-13	11-02	12-21	10-24	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-14	12-06	12-28	11-02	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-30	12-30	10-27	12-07	10-28	12-21	12-27	12-26	12-08	12-06	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-22	12-21	--	11-02	12-22	12-28	12-25	12-22	12-21	2021-01-03	12-21	12-21	12-30	07-21	07-21	12-26	--	12-29	12-26	12-27	12-21	12-24	11-02	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-28	10-27	2021-02-25	10-01	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	07-21	07-21	12-27	07-21	12-24	12-29	07-21	12-24	12-21	11-09	07-21	12-26	07-21	10-31	12-27	12-30	12-28	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-25	12-21	12-22	2021-01-06	--	07-21	12-23	12-27	12-22	07-21	12-25	12-25	12-25	10-17	10-29	12-26	07-21	12-21	12-28	12-21	12-21	12-27	12-21	2021-01-05	12-22	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-28	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-23	12-13	12-27	12-13	12-29	12-22	12-29	--	12-28	12-30	12-22	12-26	12-21	2021-01-01	07-21	12-28	--	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-25	11-01	12-22	10-27	09-29	12-29	12-30	11-02	11-02	12-21	12-27	12-27	11-02	12-21	09-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-31	11-02	2021-01-02	12-22	--	2021-01-07	--	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-31	07-21	12-22	12-27	12-06	07-21	12-07	12-28	12-29	11-02	11-03	12-27	12-06	12-27	07-21	12-08	10-14	10-26	12-26	12-21	07-21	11-01	12-21	12-30	11-04	12-21	11-03	12-27	12-21	2021-01-01	11-02	12-29	11-02	10-22	--	12-27	12-28	12-26	07-21	2021-01-06	11-02	11-02	12-28	11-02	12-29	12-21	12-31	2021-01-05	12-22	07-21	12-06	10-11	12-21	12-27	10-19	12-13	10-11	12-13	10-18	12-30	12-28	10-13	12-25	2021-01-26	2021-01-02	11-02	12-29	10-31	07-21	12-21	12-28	12-29	12-22	11-02	--	12-30	12-25	12-25	12-21	07-21	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-26	--	2021-01-04	12-22	11-09	07-21	12-21	12-22	12-20	2021-01-03	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	12-25	12-25	10-27	12-22	07-21	12-28	12-27	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-02	12-25	10-18	2021-01-02	12-26	12-30	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-26	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-22	12-27	--	--	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-26	12-08	12-21	11-01	12-27	12-27	12-15	12-25	11-02	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-26	12-20	--	07-21	11-02	12-07	07-21	12-22	12-28	12-22	10-16	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	12-31	12-28	12-25	12-31	12-21	12-30	12-26	11-02
Previous peak daily increment	605	360	61	88	97	285	134	73	115	260	170	110	176	178	78	477	589	189	58	326	128	109	277	233	262	426	1200	75	166	98	95	58	234	50	355	142	434	228	107	524	155	233	307	1167	107	508	94	186	62	122	160	211	137	99	256	87	148	354	172	194	175	107	303		292	268	52	197	249	283	59	91	71	65	1221	82	243		35	53	94	288	34	551	288	38	181	598	151	69	189	72	58	164	27	206	248	187	118	322	216	697	536	296	60	52	370	76	160	106	184	51	231	206	102	163	146	107	56	146	593	273	97	74		457	90	74	94	661	150	125	54	42	127	82	1697	92	56	180	92	451	119	34	377	218	59	201	57	401	172	103	338	103	106	136	120	476	101	159	52		442	57	115	452	143	83	239	134		237	275	148	77	100	283	198	349	153	428	107	1522	469	104	457	71	229	102	480	274	200	90	36	2166	92	419		46		298	37	62	153	186	105	213	296	361	79	62	65	191	105	63	2512	85	723	190	212	186	23	53	137	105	50	969	105	58	123	106	41	56	277	158	121	1362	90	68	257		125	44	108	227	154	135	347	41	156	174	623	105	81	176	445	286	41	188	39	194	138	65	96	198	80	85	67	174	36	25	417	448	80	147	82	407	65	131	557		209	244	167	97	218	110	102	69	181		42	86	73	839	94	79	108	80	66	102	115	248	293	451	131	156	222	94	55	112	144	189	138	197	67	42	206	105	331	189	270	181	172	56	109	46	140	349	90	44	138	123	360	138	51			559	151	90	110	120	84	245	329	449	390	227	260	138	117	160	65	154	87		296	165	42	369	67	115	217	319	264	83	148	431	106	138	377	106	115	176	95	173	71	69	573
Low between peaks	0	-1	-3	-2	-7	0	3	1	-26	5	-11	2	-7	-17	-8	3	-2	9	-1	-30	-13	2	-14	-12	9	3	307	-1	55	-9	0	-14	17	2	31	-8	31	-4	-5	-39	-11	1	-1	-18	-8	-8	-10	-16	-1	3	3	0	8	2	-17	-6	-64	5	-9	2	-2	3	-1		-7	-11	-11	-3	-9	-14	-3	-6	0	4	-11	-4	-9			1	2	-30	-1	-13	-19	-5	-8	-4	-11	-5	1	-7	0	53	-3	11	1	-28	-14	-4	-48	-3	-6	-2	-3	-7	-3	-6	-12	-2	-5	2	-1	-5	1	-17	-6	-5	0	-4	-80	-12	1	0		-4	0	0	4	-5	1	-7	-5	-8	-7	2	-7	-13	-8	-2	-8	-25	-21		-27	-25	-2	-5	1	-12	-2	-17	5	2	-1	-8	-12	-19	-9	-1	2		-27		-1	12	-5	3	-2	-7		-5	-5	-5		-3	-12	-3	27	20	2	-5	40	120	1	-18	0	-9	2	58	7	-22	0	0	27	1	-45		-13		2	-10	-3	-10	6	2	5	-15	0	-3	0	0	1	-10	1	15	-14	4	2	8	-8	-5	-12	-3	-7	-6	-7	5	-6	-16	5	1	-7	-3	-7	-4	6	-5	1	6		1	1	3	1	5	-74	37		0	-8	1	-1	-51	-13	-2	1	-20	-4	0	3	0	1	-6	0	-2	0	1	-14	-6	-8	2	-1	-4	-4	-20	-45	3	-6	23		-28	4	-3	-10	-2	-3	-4	-12	-23			-5	-4	-7	-11	-5	-1	2	-5	-10	2	-2	-3	-16	-2	-6	-39		-2	1	-1	-4	4	-5	-7	-12	1	-4	-13	-40	3	-9	7	-8	-5	-6	-12	-3	-7	-4	-9	2	-6	-11	-1			5	0	-18	-3		-18	16	-9	-22	-4	-6	-4	4	-12	-13	-5	1	-7		-2	1	-4	-2	-1	-12	7	6	-36	-9	-5	-68	0	-11	-19	-2	-6	2	1	0	-3	-6	-48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-19 to 2021-09-25

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-09-18	16880	15147	5305	10163	13789	8340	15252	12477	5446	26738	13993	16047	13582	18992	6294	30215	44464	34949	7684	23922	14811	14167	17257	21620	43363	31109	154802	12668	28005	19489	8198	9557	43074	7610	44189	11935	76838	15539	10521	40542	9943	17504	29361	58234	9916	36228	10951	12939	12582	15521	27852	19696	26576	10960	23237	11655	14879	37511	13238	17132	11440	14838	28037	3696	21813	19509	8669	14747	38234	38085	10107	9428	7935	14420	50391	5457	18781	681	9133	6780	9477	41255	5404	69950	40975	5278	12587	45905	15184	13939	14738	7527	9232	31263	5619	24160	42583	24521	11029	40879	10176	17841	45052	13012	5819	10190	12678	8766	14659	12283	9185	8328	11861	35041	14538	15331	9878	11585	4857	12508	39029	17502	8598	13202	11939	14901	9354	8959	13535	31679	15613	11336	5860	9343	26559	14590	86549	12339	7136	14462	9639	32456	12324	7403	32661	18043	7931	21819	9578	30406	11536	15075	29865	7887	14909	9626	11652	35653	13029	12528	9794	12227	38352	11743	10238	35162	14245	13204	8257	11466	4163	11108	24685	14738	10672	11780	35829	18511	56011	26223	39805	16576	110678	54650	8073	33355	11229	12072	14561	76083	30048	18773	5867	5013	87233	14382	35342	4872	7523	9086	23899	5612	5992	12481	20475	14162	22588	9847	30896	7340	6438	3515	17702	11697	13238	43621	14195	47126	16570	21721	13947	6151	10441	20172	11318	10037	47419	17024	5084	18993	25982	7787	11737	26641	33981	12773	48094	15250	7686	37563	295	16682	6947	14517	10865	24838	24342	24137	8291	22008	18125	42851	18775	9622	15317	23473	30473	8071	18217	4879	33994	9381	10620	7428	35229	12065	8525	13333	11025	3093	3688	40567	49367	10328	7111	10797	38322	9382	11272	73118	628	26618	20752	26767	10762	10074	7626	11246	11808	29465	5204	8334	12513	8375	39122	9603	8305	10862	14262	11130	13123	22572	26569	21360	35708	11159	14189	26553	13941	10161	9565	7853	37417	27905	32596	9830	8284	40044	8593	23700	17544	27849	20955	31912	10065	8588	8698	19419	14470	10313	6428	15469	10244	23581	12832	11781	9473	3591	41572	30166	9908	8243	11879	9749	46476	37968	34866	37396	28807	13826	12035	9843	12667	8005	13120	11918	3020	11417	14497	8106	18458	8120	11444	22942	48835	35987	9193	14244	39802	10286	14682	36521	10312	9067	16706	10368	17444	12991	9298	21426
2021-09-19	17100	15150	5322	10240	13840	8401	15330	12580	5507	26900	14040	16090	13640	19080	6322	30270	44620	35040	7726	24000	14880	14220	17290	21680	43570	31180	155400	12740	28080	19580	8215	9592	43200	7640	44360	11970	77020	15590	10590	40720	9970	17600	29410	58330	9960	36330	10990	12970	12640	15550	27950	19820	26640	11000	23300	11720	14940	37630	13310	17260	11470	14930	28150	3737	21930	19570	8692	14820	38340	38320	10150	9460	7976	14480	50610	5474	18850	686	9220	6812	9542	41470	5432	70280	41140	5297	12620	45950	15260	14010	14780	7565	9321	31380	5647	24240	42750	24670	11060	41050	10260	17970	45160	13120	5848	10210	12720	8807	14720	12340	9206	8370	11960	35200	14580	15420	9883	11640	4881	12560	39110	17570	8630	13220	11980	15030	9384	9003	13630	32260	15650	11400	5886	9389	26650	14640	86770	12370	7172	14500	9684	32530	12370	7485	32720	18110	7963	21880	9632	30480	11570	15150	29950	7925	14960	9641	11700	35730	13080	12570	9850	12350	38460	11820	10280	35260	14320	13250	8341	11520	4204	11150	24740	14780	10710	11830	35930	18560	56210	26300	39890	16580	111200	54880	8094	33480	11290	12110	14670	76420	30140	18860	5889	5031	87570	14450	35420	4896	7575	9143	23960	5631	6027	12510	20570	14240	22660	9930	30990	7365	6468	3545	17840	11750	13310	43740	14260	47220	16630	21820	14070	6176	10490	20250	11360	10090	47560	17110	5115	19130	26130	7820	11810	26720	34100	12810	48200	15320	7716	37680	297	16720	7007	14560	10940	24990	24390	24220	8359	22030	18190	42950	18840	9663	15380	23540	30580	8104	18280	4896	34110	9410	10650	7430	35380	12130	8552	13390	11060	3109	3706	40730	49560	10380	7168	10840	38470	9418	11320	73460	635	26750	20810	26900	10780	10180	7657	11300	11860	29540	5239	8378	12560	8420	39240	9646	8344	10910	14310	11160	13180	22650	26680	21420	35780	11190	14230	26610	14040	10220	9604	7964	37570	27990	32720	9880	8310	40170	8624	23730	17580	28110	21110	32080	10110	8617	8710	19520	14530	10360	6437	15480	10280	23680	12880	11840	9531	3619	41650	30270	9940	8274	11880	9800	46690	38140	34940	37480	28940	13890	12070	9856	12710	8039	13170	11980	3043	11530	14550	8135	18750	8162	11510	23010	49040	36170	9237	14310	39980	10320	14750	36700	10340	9111	16770	10410	17500	13060	9340	21450
2021-09-20	17290	15420	5332	10270	13910	8541	15430	12680	5666	27160	14110	16130	13700	19180	6352	30390	44770	35210	7757	24080	14950	14270	17350	21760	43870	31310	155900	12810	28150	19720	8215	9661	43350	7674	44550	12050	77280	15630	10650	40870	10000	17710	29490	58400	10030	36500	11060	13010	12710	15600	28060	20020	26770	11050	23410	11780	15000	37810	13370	17410	11500	15050	28300	3789	22060	19650	8701	14940	38570	38580	10210	9536	8017	14500	50920	5504	18930	694	9333	6848	9617	41850	5489	70610	41350	5329	12690	46010	15350	14090	14820	7600	9414	31590	5666	24310	42980	24850	11130	41250	10450	18230	45390	13290	5878	10230	12850	8877	14770	12440	9256	8414	12220	35500	14640	15550	9909	11710	4917	12610	39250	17640	8649	13260	12070	15290	9420	9075	13790	32770	15660	11450	5950	9437	26770	14730	87250	12390	7234	14580	9742	32650	12430	7573	32860	18220	8004	21960	9688	30580	11620	15270	30100	7964	15030	9664	11780	35870	13200	12620	9930	12700	38620	11890	10350	35390	14420	13280	8574	11580	4240	11260	24830	14840	10770	11910	36040	18640	56420	26440	40080	16630	111700	55140	8156	33600	11330	12190	14780	76740	30310	18940	5920	5071	87860	14550	35540	4931	7638	9203	24050	5658	6062	12540	20670	14310	22770	10110	31140	7409	6514	3583	17960	11830	13390	43850	14360	47370	16740	22000	14310	6202	10520	20350	11440	10140	47840	17180	5149	19340	26240	7858	11890	26830	34270	12840	48430	15400	7762	37810	300	16790	7097	14610	11010	25160	24500	24390	8452	22090	18300	43090	18930	9694	15430	23670	30800	8107	18370	4927	34220	9447	10670	7440	35570	12160	8592	13450	11110	3137	3743	40890	49760	10450	7283	10870	38650	9488	11350	73810	651	26910	20880	27030	10820	10310	7681	11380	11920	29590	5300	8412	12590	8474	39450	9715	8387	10990	14370	11170	13230	22780	26790	21520	35940	11250	14290	26710	14140	10260	9647	8071	37730	28140	32910	9930	8337	40370	8671	23770	17650	28400	21340	32250	10150	8664	8734	19660	14580	10430	6456	15510	10330	23780	12940	11940	9566	3657	41790	30400	10000	8313	11940	9860	46890	38340	35100	37630	29060	13950	12130	9870	12820	8080	13220	12110	3075	11770	14630	8178	19030	8239	11600	23100	49220	36450	9293	14420	40160	10360	14870	36860	10390	9172	16860	10450	17620	13110	9406	21470
2021-09-21	17450	15660	5347	10320	13970	8643	15520	12770	5780	27370	14160	16180	13740	19280	6381	30480	44910	35350	7792	24140	15020	14310	17410	21830	44130	31410	156400	12870	28210	19840	8215	9713	43460	7693	44710	12110	77520	15680	10710	40980	10030	17820	29570	58480	10090	36630	11120	13040	12760	15640	28150	20190	26880	11100	23500	11840	15040	38010	13440	17520	11530	15150	28430	3835	22180	19710	8716	15030	38770	38750	10260	9590	8057	14530	51200	5525	19010	701	9426	6882	9691	42140	5531	70890	41530	5355	12740	46070	15430	14140	14870	7635	9493	31750	5689	24390	43170	25020	11180	41410	10590	18420	45560	13420	5907	10250	12930	8933	14820	12530	9293	8466	12410	35730	14700	15650	9920	11780	4946	12660	39370	17680	8673	13280	12140	15490	9452	9128	13920	33170	15690	11490	5996	9484	26870	14800	87620	12410	7283	14630	9792	32740	12490	7660	32970	18310	8041	22040	9742	30660	11660	15370	30220	8002	15090	9678	11840	35980	13290	12660	9990	12940	38750	11970	10400	35490	14510	13330	8738	11630	4275	11340	24900	14890	10850	11970	36150	18700	56620	26550	40220	16690	112100	55350	8199	33700	11380	12250	14890	77010	30440	19000	5947	5100	88100	14630	35640	4960	7693	9261	24120	5680	6096	12570	20760	14380	22860	10230	31260	7444	6552	3618	18100	11900	13450	43960	14440	47490	16840	22150	14500	6228	10570	20410	11500	10180	48060	17250	5176	19510	26360	7893	11960	26930	34420	12870	48600	15480	7801	37920	303	16850	7172	14660	11090	25270	24590	24510	8533	22160	18390	43210	19010	9728	15480	23780	31020	8123	18440	4951	34310	9480	10690	7452	35740	12200	8626	13500	11150	3158	3771	41010	49900	10500	7371	10900	38790	9542	11390	74070	663	27060	20940	27120	10850	10430	7708	11450	11980	29650	5348	8450	12630	8523	39620	9772	8428	11060	14420	11190	13290	22880	26900	21600	36050	11290	14340	26790	14240	10310	9687	8162	37880	28260	33070	9970	8362	40530	8710	23800	17700	28650	21530	32390	10200	8702	8753	19770	14640	10500	6472	15520	10370	23860	13000	12030	9611	3689	41900	30520	10060	8348	12020	9910	47070	38500	35210	37750	29160	14020	12180	9883	12890	8116	13270	12210	3101	11950	14690	8214	19250	8299	11680	23180	49360	36670	9342	14510	40330	10390	14960	37010	10430	9207	16940	10490	17710	13180	9460	21500
2021-09-22	17590	15870	5362	10380	14030	8726	15600	12850	5870	27560	14210	16220	13790	19370	6409	30560	45040	35510	7829	24200	15090	14360	17450	21900	44350	31500	156800	12940	28270	19940	8224	9757	43560	7716	44870	12160	77720	15720	10760	41070	10060	17910	29650	58560	10140	36750	11170	13080	12810	15680	28220	20360	27000	11140	23580	11900	15080	38200	13510	17660	11560	15250	28550	3878	22300	19780	8733	15110	38950	38970	10300	9634	8096	14580	51500	5544	19080	707	9530	6914	9757	42390	5565	71170	41700	5377	12780	46120	15510	14190	14910	7672	9554	31890	5714	24460	43350	25170	11220	41560	10710	18590	45700	13540	5935	10270	13000	8981	14870	12600	9322	8510	12560	35930	14760	15750	9931	11830	4973	12710	39460	17730	8699	13310	12200	15660	9482	9182	14030	33560	15730	11540	6032	9530	26960	14860	87930	12430	7325	14680	9839	32830	12540	7734	33050	18390	8074	22100	9794	30740	11690	15450	30320	8038	15150	9695	11900	36070	13380	12710	10050	13130	38860	12040	10450	35600	14580	13370	8866	11670	4329	11400	24970	14930	10900	12020	36240	18760	56810	26640	40330	16760	112500	55530	8231	33770	11430	12300	14990	77250	30550	19040	5971	5124	88290	14690	35730	4987	7744	9318	24190	5700	6129	12590	20850	14450	22940	10340	31360	7474	6586	3649	18240	11960	13500	44070	14520	47600	16950	22270	14660	6252	10610	20480	11550	10230	48240	17330	5203	19650	26470	7926	12040	27030	34570	12910	48740	15550	7836	38010	306	16910	7238	14700	11160	25370	24700	24620	8611	22230	18470	43310	19090	9765	15540	23860	31240	8146	18510	4972	34380	9511	10720	7459	35890	12260	8656	13550	11180	3177	3793	41130	50030	10560	7443	10940	38940	9587	11430	74310	672	27200	21000	27210	10880	10540	7735	11510	12030	29700	5387	8489	12670	8570	39750	9821	8467	11110	14470	11210	13340	22970	27020	21670	36150	11330	14390	26880	14340	10360	9727	8244	38030	28360	33210	10020	8386	40670	8745	23830	17740	28910	21690	32500	10240	8736	8769	19880	14690	10550	6490	15540	10410	23910	13060	12100	9660	3720	41990	30630	10110	8380	12110	9960	47240	38640	35310	37850	29250	14080	12230	9894	12950	8151	13320	12290	3125	12100	14750	8246	19410	8351	11750	23260	49490	36860	9387	14580	40450	10430	15040	37140	10470	9239	17010	10530	17780	13240	9506	21520
2021-09-23	17750	16080	5378	10450	14080	8804	15680	12920	5954	27740	14260	16260	13820	19450	6436	30630	45170	35650	7867	24270	15150	14410	17500	21960	44570	31580	157200	13010	28320	20050	8239	9798	43640	7730	45010	12200	77940	15770	10810	41160	10080	18010	29750	58640	10190	36860	11220	13110	12850	15720	28290	20530	27120	11180	23650	11970	15120	38360	13570	17800	11580	15340	28660	3920	22410	19840	8751	15190	39170	39160	10340	9675	8135	14620	51890	5561	19150	713	9610	6946	9825	42640	5597	71460	41870	5398	12820	46170	15580	14250	14950	7708	9621	32030	5739	24540	43530	25330	11260	41700	10820	18740	45830	13660	5963	10280	13070	9028	14920	12660	9351	8549	12700	36110	14810	15850	9942	11890	4999	12760	39560	17770	8726	13330	12250	15810	9511	9239	14140	33850	15770	11570	6065	9575	27060	14920	88220	12450	7366	14730	9885	32910	12590	7830	33130	18460	8107	22160	9846	30820	11730	15530	30420	8075	15200	9707	11950	36160	13450	12750	10110	13320	38970	12110	10490	35700	14660	13400	8985	11720	4365	11460	25030	14980	10960	12080	36340	18820	57000	26730	40440	16810	112800	55710	8261	33860	11490	12350	15100	77470	30660	19100	5995	5146	88520	14760	35810	5013	7795	9374	24250	5719	6162	12620	20940	14510	23020	10440	31470	7503	6618	3681	18380	12020	13550	44180	14590	47700	17050	22390	14810	6276	10650	20550	11600	10280	48410	17400	5226	19780	26570	7959	12110	27130	34710	12940	48870	15620	7869	38120	308	16960	7302	14730	11240	25480	24810	24720	8694	22300	18550	43410	19160	9802	15590	23950	31450	8169	18570	4993	34460	9540	10740	7466	36040	12310	8685	13600	11220	3195	3815	41240	50180	10610	7512	10970	39070	9630	11480	74550	680	27340	21060	27280	10920	10640	7763	11570	12080	29760	5425	8530	12710	8616	39880	9870	8506	11170	14520	11230	13390	23050	27110	21730	36240	11370	14430	26980	14440	10410	9765	8328	38180	28460	33350	10070	8410	40810	8779	23860	17790	29160	21840	32640	10280	8768	8783	19980	14730	10600	6502	15550	10440	23970	13100	12160	9710	3750	42080	30740	10150	8411	12170	10010	47400	38760	35400	37940	29330	14140	12270	9905	13010	8184	13370	12360	3149	12250	14810	8277	19560	8400	11810	23320	49630	37050	9431	14660	40580	10460	15120	37270	10500	9260	17070	10570	17850	13300	9551	21550
2021-09-24	17860	16280	5395	10510	14130	8870	15750	12990	6026	27910	14310	16300	13850	19530	6463	30690	45290	35820	7907	24310	15210	14470	17550	22020	44780	31660	157500	13080	28350	20150	8259	9836	43720	7750	45130	12240	78140	15810	10850	41220	10110	18090	29800	58730	10240	36960	11260	13140	12890	15750	28340	20680	27230	11220	23720	12030	15150	38550	13640	17910	11610	15430	28770	3961	22530	19900	8770	15270	39350	39300	10380	9710	8174	14670	52040	5578	19210	718	9698	6978	9869	42860	5626	71680	42030	5418	12860	46220	15650	14300	14980	7745	9685	32160	5765	24610	43700	25460	11290	41820	10910	18880	45950	13770	5990	10300	13130	9071	14980	12720	9375	8568	12820	36280	14870	15950	9947	11950	5023	12810	39640	17800	8754	13340	12300	15950	9540	9276	14240	34120	15810	11600	6092	9620	27150	14970	88490	12470	7404	14770	9929	32990	12640	7896	33200	18530	8139	22220	9897	30890	11760	15610	30510	8111	15250	9722	12000	36240	13530	12790	10160	13470	39080	12190	10540	35790	14730	13430	9085	11770	4401	11510	25090	15020	11020	12130	36430	18870	57190	26810	40540	16860	113100	55840	8286	33920	11540	12390	15200	77650	30760	19140	6018	5166	88660	14820	35890	5037	7843	9430	24320	5738	6195	12650	21040	14580	23100	10530	31570	7529	6649	3711	18520	12070	13590	44300	14650	47790	17150	22500	14950	6299	10700	20620	11650	10320	48560	17490	5250	19910	26670	7991	12190	27200	34860	12970	48990	15690	7901	38190	310	17030	7362	14770	11310	25570	24890	24810	8758	22380	18610	43510	19220	9840	15640	24020	31660	8197	18630	5011	34540	9569	10770	7475	36190	12370	8713	13660	11250	3211	3834	41320	50290	10660	7573	11010	39160	9669	11520	74760	687	27490	21110	27350	10960	10750	7791	11620	12140	29820	5459	8572	12750	8660	40000	9914	8544	11210	14570	11250	13440	23130	27180	21800	36320	11410	14480	27050	14540	10470	9804	8388	38320	28550	33470	10110	8433	40940	8812	23890	17820	29340	21980	32740	10330	8798	8796	20090	14770	10650	6531	15570	10480	24010	13150	12220	9764	3778	42170	30840	10210	8442	12270	10060	47560	38870	35490	38030	29400	14200	12310	9916	13060	8217	13420	12420	3171	12380	14860	8305	19690	8445	11870	23390	49740	37230	9473	14730	40690	10480	15190	37360	10530	9283	17140	10610	17910	13360	9593	21580
2021-09-25	17950	16480	5413	10590	14180	8934	15830	13040	6093	28080	14350	16340	13880	19610	6489	30750	45390	35940	7947	24350	15270	14520	17610	22080	44980	31730	157800	13150	28390	20240	8280	9871	43780	7763	45230	12280	78330	15850	10880	41280	10130	18120	29850	58810	10280	37060	11300	13170	12930	15780	28390	20780	27320	11260	23780	12090	15170	38650	13710	17990	11640	15520	28880	4002	22640	19960	8790	15340	39520	39440	10420	9744	8213	14730	52180	5594	19280	723	9728	7009	9917	43070	5652	71880	42180	5437	12890	46260	15720	14330	15020	7782	9706	32280	5792	24690	43870	25560	11320	41930	11000	19010	46060	13870	6018	10320	13180	9112	15030	12780	9398	8588	12940	36450	14900	16040	9959	12000	5047	12860	39730	17830	8783	13360	12340	16080	9568	9320	14340	34330	15860	11620	6118	9665	27240	15020	88750	12490	7440	14810	9973	33060	12680	7936	33270	18600	8171	22270	9948	30960	11790	15690	30600	8147	15300	9737	12050	36320	13590	12820	10210	13610	39180	12270	10570	35860	14810	13450	9178	11810	4425	11560	25140	15060	11070	12180	36530	18920	57370	26900	40630	16910	113400	55960	8309	33980	11590	12430	15310	77810	30860	19170	6040	5184	88800	14860	35970	5061	7892	9485	24380	5755	6227	12680	21130	14650	23170	10610	31660	7554	6679	3741	18660	12120	13620	44410	14710	47880	17220	22600	15080	6322	10740	20680	11690	10370	48710	17570	5268	20030	26750	8023	12260	27260	34970	13000	49110	15760	7932	38250	312	17080	7421	14790	11390	25640	24970	24900	8789	22440	18680	43600	19290	9879	15700	24090	31750	8226	18690	5028	34580	9597	10790	7489	36330	12430	8739	13710	11290	3227	3853	41400	50400	10710	7631	11040	39260	9706	11560	74920	694	27610	21160	27420	11010	10850	7819	11680	12190	29880	5492	8614	12790	8705	40110	9958	8582	11260	14610	11270	13480	23200	27250	21860	36390	11440	14520	27120	14600	10530	9842	8435	38460	28640	33600	10160	8457	41060	8843	23920	17860	29420	22120	32820	10370	8827	8809	20180	14810	10690	6555	15580	10520	24050	13180	12280	9818	3806	42240	30920	10240	8471	12310	10110	47690	38960	35570	38120	29460	14260	12340	9926	13110	8250	13470	12470	3193	12500	14910	8334	19790	8489	11930	23450	49840	37400	9514	14790	40780	10510	15250	37460	10560	9300	17200	10650	17970	13420	9633	21610

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-19 to 2021-09-25

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-09-18	16880	15147	5305	10163	13789	8340	15252	12477	5446	26738	13993	16047	13582	18992	6294	30215	44464	34949	7684	23922	14811	14167	17257	21620	43363	31109	154802	12668	28005	19489	8198	9557	43074	7610	44189	11935	76838	15539	10521	40542	9943	17504	29361	58234	9916	36228	10951	12939	12582	15521	27852	19696	26576	10960	23237	11655	14879	37511	13238	17132	11440	14838	28037	3696	21813	19509	8669	14747	38234	38085	10107	9428	7935	14420	50391	5457	18781	681	9133	6780	9477	41255	5404	69950	40975	5278	12587	45905	15184	13939	14738	7527	9232	31263	5619	24160	42583	24521	11029	40879	10176	17841	45052	13012	5819	10190	12678	8766	14659	12283	9185	8328	11861	35041	14538	15331	9878	11585	4857	12508	39029	17502	8598	13202	11939	14901	9354	8959	13535	31679	15613	11336	5860	9343	26559	14590	86549	12339	7136	14462	9639	32456	12324	7403	32661	18043	7931	21819	9578	30406	11536	15075	29865	7887	14909	9626	11652	35653	13029	12528	9794	12227	38352	11743	10238	35162	14245	13204	8257	11466	4163	11108	24685	14738	10672	11780	35829	18511	56011	26223	39805	16576	110678	54650	8073	33355	11229	12072	14561	76083	30048	18773	5867	5013	87233	14382	35342	4872	7523	9086	23899	5612	5992	12481	20475	14162	22588	9847	30896	7340	6438	3515	17702	11697	13238	43621	14195	47126	16570	21721	13947	6151	10441	20172	11318	10037	47419	17024	5084	18993	25982	7787	11737	26641	33981	12773	48094	15250	7686	37563	295	16682	6947	14517	10865	24838	24342	24137	8291	22008	18125	42851	18775	9622	15317	23473	30473	8071	18217	4879	33994	9381	10620	7428	35229	12065	8525	13333	11025	3093	3688	40567	49367	10328	7111	10797	38322	9382	11272	73118	628	26618	20752	26767	10762	10074	7626	11246	11808	29465	5204	8334	12513	8375	39122	9603	8305	10862	14262	11130	13123	22572	26569	21360	35708	11159	14189	26553	13941	10161	9565	7853	37417	27905	32596	9830	8284	40044	8593	23700	17544	27849	20955	31912	10065	8588	8698	19419	14470	10313	6428	15469	10244	23581	12832	11781	9473	3591	41572	30166	9908	8243	11879	9749	46476	37968	34866	37396	28807	13826	12035	9843	12667	8005	13120	11918	3020	11417	14497	8106	18458	8120	11444	22942	48835	35987	9193	14244	39802	10286	14682	36521	10312	9067	16706	10368	17444	12991	9298	21426
2021-09-19	17010	15290	5322	10240	13840	8398	15330	12560	5501	26880	14030	16100	13610	19070	6323	30270	44580	35100	7725	23980	14870	14220	17300	21680	43530	31170	155100	12740	28050	19580	8241	9590	43160	7632	44310	11970	77060	15580	10570	40620	9970	17570	29420	58330	9950	36330	10990	12970	12630	15550	27910	19850	26680	11000	23300	11720	14910	37660	13300	17260	11460	14920	28140	3734	21910	19560	8693	14810	38400	38230	10150	9459	7977	14470	50570	5499	18850	686	9199	6810	9534	41440	5435	70170	41120	5296	12620	46010	15250	13980	14770	7562	9286	31370	5645	24240	42730	24620	11060	41010	10250	17950	45130	13110	5847	10230	12760	8801	14710	12330	9233	8358	11940	35180	14580	15420	9900	11640	4882	12560	39110	17540	8627	13250	11980	15020	9381	8997	13620	32020	15690	11360	5883	9383	26640	14640	86910	12360	7169	14500	9680	32520	12370	7471	32720	18100	7964	21870	9631	30470	11570	15150	29940	7923	14950	9635	11700	35720	13090	12570	9840	12330	38450	11820	10280	35250	14310	13240	8322	11510	4192	11150	24740	14780	10740	11820	35920	18560	56200	26300	39870	16630	111000	54790	8089	33430	11290	12110	14660	76280	30130	18810	5889	5025	87390	14440	35410	4897	7577	9136	23970	5628	6030	12510	20580	14210	22650	9900	30990	7366	6463	3542	17810	11750	13280	43750	14250	47200	16650	21820	14050	6177	10490	20230	11360	10090	47720	17110	5105	19070	26060	7819	11810	26720	34110	12810	48190	15310	7715	37650	299	16740	7006	14550	10940	24890	24420	24210	8345	22070	18190	42950	18840	9661	15370	23600	30630	8105	18280	4894	34050	9405	10650	7436	35370	12130	8550	13390	11060	3109	3706	40650	49470	10380	7164	10830	38430	9418	11310	73330	634	26760	20800	26870	10790	10170	7660	11300	11860	29530	5240	8379	12560	8418	39340	9638	8340	10910	14300	11190	13170	22640	26650	21420	35750	11190	14240	26630	14020	10220	9603	7921	37560	27980	32700	9890	8301	40160	8626	23750	17570	28010	21060	32010	10110	8618	8721	19520	14510	10360	6445	15500	10280	23630	12870	11830	9522	3618	41620	30250	9950	8272	11960	9800	46620	38070	34930	37470	28890	13890	12070	9870	12700	8040	13170	11970	3038	11500	14540	8135	18620	8157	11490	22990	48950	36180	9236	14310	39890	10310	14750	36610	10340	9092	16760	10400	17490	13050	9342	21480
2021-09-20	17190	15550	5338	10310	13900	8485	15410	12640	5590	27070	14080	16160	13660	19160	6354	30340	44720	35260	7764	24040	14940	14270	17350	21740	43750	31250	155600	12820	28120	19700	8292	9636	43290	7662	44440	12020	77310	15620	10640	40730	10000	17660	29490	58410	10000	36450	11030	13000	12680	15600	27990	20050	26790	11040	23370	11790	14950	37880	13370	17440	11490	15020	28260	3779	22030	19620	8703	14880	38630	38450	10190	9502	8017	14530	50960	5550	18930	691	9299	6846	9605	41660	5468	70480	41310	5317	12660	46130	15330	14040	14810	7599	9357	31520	5669	24320	42930	24770	11100	41180	10360	18140	45270	13240	5873	10270	12870	8854	14760	12400	9313	8395	12090	35370	14640	15530	9930	11700	4912	12610	39210	17590	8654	13310	12030	15200	9417	9063	13710	32470	15780	11400	5920	9432	26730	14690	87630	12380	7206	14550	9728	32600	12410	7556	32800	18170	7996	21940	9682	30550	11600	15240	30030	7958	15010	9656	11740	35810	13220	12610	9900	12500	38560	11900	10320	35370	14390	13280	8444	11560	4230	11220	24810	14830	10810	11880	36040	18620	56430	26390	39990	16700	111400	55040	8120	33520	11340	12170	14770	76550	30240	18880	5916	5049	87610	14510	35510	4924	7625	9194	24040	5646	6064	12540	20680	14280	22740	10020	31100	7396	6496	3575	17930	11820	13340	43890	14320	47310	16760	21940	14240	6210	10540	20310	11410	10140	48220	17190	5135	19140	26180	7853	11900	26810	34270	12840	48330	15390	7752	37760	306	16800	7063	14590	11020	25010	24510	24300	8430	22140	18270	43050	18910	9699	15430	23830	30880	8129	18340	4915	34150	9438	10670	7448	35540	12180	8578	13440	11100	3128	3732	40770	49630	10440	7246	10860	38580	9460	11360	73610	644	26910	20850	26960	10820	10280	7688	11360	11920	29570	5274	8424	12600	8468	39740	9690	8380	10960	14360	11250	13210	22730	26740	21500	35850	11220	14300	26740	14090	10280	9645	8019	37720	28090	32820	9930	8320	40330	8661	23820	17620	28240	21130	32160	10160	8653	8753	19630	14560	10410	6459	15530	10320	23710	12920	11900	9571	3650	41690	30350	10010	8306	12070	9850	46790	38220	35030	37580	28990	13950	12110	9910	12760	8073	13220	12040	3052	11640	14590	8163	18860	8208	11560	23060	49080	36360	9280	14390	40050	10340	14820	36720	10370	9132	16830	10450	17560	13120	9388	21530
2021-09-21	17350	15790	5354	10380	13950	8561	15490	12730	5670	27240	14130	16210	13690	19250	6383	30410	44850	35410	7801	24090	15000	14320	17390	21800	43980	31310	156000	12890	28170	19810	8342	9677	43400	7683	44570	12060	77530	15660	10690	40820	10020	17760	29560	58480	10050	36550	11070	13040	12720	15650	28070	20230	26900	11080	23440	11860	14990	38110	13430	17600	11510	15120	28370	3821	22140	19670	8715	14930	38840	38630	10240	9537	8055	14580	51340	5595	19000	695	9392	6880	9674	41870	5496	70740	41480	5336	12700	46240	15410	14090	14850	7634	9425	31650	5695	24400	43090	24900	11130	41340	10470	18300	45390	13380	5898	10310	12990	8900	14810	12470	9388	8439	12220	35530	14700	15640	9950	11760	4939	12660	39300	17630	8683	13360	12080	15350	9449	9115	13800	32870	15880	11440	5946	9475	26820	14730	88280	12400	7241	14590	9773	32680	12460	7639	32870	18230	8026	21990	9732	30610	11630	15330	30110	7993	15070	9673	11790	35890	13310	12650	9950	12670	38670	11980	10360	35460	14460	13320	8548	11600	4267	11270	24870	14870	10870	11930	36150	18670	56620	26470	40090	16760	111800	55240	8145	33610	11400	12220	14880	76800	30340	18920	5942	5072	87810	14570	35590	4950	7669	9251	24100	5663	6096	12560	20770	14340	22820	10130	31210	7423	6530	3606	18060	11880	13390	44030	14380	47410	16850	22050	14410	6241	10580	20370	11450	10190	48660	17270	5158	19190	26300	7884	11970	26900	34420	12870	48450	15460	7786	37870	313	16860	7118	14630	11100	25090	24590	24380	8507	22210	18340	43150	18980	9739	15490	24050	31120	8157	18390	4934	34230	9468	10700	7462	35700	12230	8604	13490	11130	3146	3753	40880	49740	10490	7317	10880	38710	9499	11410	73850	653	27050	20900	27050	10850	10380	7717	11420	11970	29610	5304	8469	12640	8515	40080	9739	8420	11000	14400	11300	13260	22820	26840	21570	35920	11260	14350	26820	14160	10340	9685	8110	37870	28190	32940	9980	8338	40470	8695	23880	17660	28460	21190	32280	10200	8684	8786	19740	14600	10460	6473	15560	10350	23780	12980	11960	9621	3677	41760	30430	10060	8337	12180	9890	46940	38360	35120	37670	29090	14000	12150	9930	12810	8104	13270	12100	3067	11780	14630	8191	19070	8252	11620	23140	49180	36510	9316	14460	40200	10370	14890	36840	10400	9162	16910	10490	17620	13190	9431	21580
2021-09-22	17500	15990	5371	10450	14000	8629	15570	12810	5739	27400	14180	16260	13730	19320	6412	30470	44970	35570	7837	24150	15050	14380	17430	21860	44190	31360	156400	12970	28230	19910	8393	9714	43500	7706	44690	12090	77750	15700	10740	40900	10050	17840	29620	58550	10090	36650	11110	13070	12770	15680	28140	20410	27020	11120	23500	11920	15030	38330	13500	17770	11530	15220	28470	3862	22240	19710	8727	14990	39040	38820	10280	9569	8092	14620	51670	5635	19070	700	9489	6912	9742	42060	5521	71000	41640	5355	12740	46350	15480	14140	14880	7668	9489	31770	5720	24480	43250	25040	11160	41490	10560	18440	45510	13500	5925	10350	13090	8940	14860	12530	9454	8479	12340	35680	14750	15740	9970	11810	4964	12710	39380	17680	8706	13410	12120	15500	9480	9168	13890	33240	15970	11470	5971	9520	26920	14770	88890	12420	7274	14630	9817	32740	12500	7719	32930	18280	8056	22050	9780	30670	11660	15400	30170	8029	15120	9689	11830	35960	13400	12690	10000	12830	38770	12060	10390	35570	14530	13360	8639	11640	4311	11320	24930	14910	10930	11980	36240	18720	56800	26560	40190	16830	112100	55420	8168	33680	11450	12260	14990	77030	30440	18960	5966	5090	87980	14630	35680	4975	7711	9308	24170	5679	6128	12590	20870	14400	22890	10230	31310	7448	6556	3638	18190	11930	13430	44170	14440	47500	16950	22150	14560	6270	10630	20430	11500	10240	49100	17360	5182	19230	26410	7916	12050	27000	34570	12910	48550	15530	7818	37970	319	16910	7172	14670	11180	25160	24680	24460	8581	22290	18400	43230	19050	9779	15550	24270	31350	8187	18440	4952	34300	9497	10730	7473	35840	12290	8629	13540	11170	3162	3772	40980	49840	10540	7381	10910	38840	9535	11450	74080	660	27190	20940	27130	10870	10480	7744	11480	12030	29640	5333	8514	12680	8562	40370	9787	8461	11050	14450	11350	13300	22890	26940	21640	35970	11280	14400	26920	14240	10400	9723	8193	38010	28280	33040	10030	8351	40610	8728	23930	17690	28680	21260	32390	10250	8714	8814	19840	14650	10500	6488	15590	10390	23830	13030	12020	9671	3707	41820	30520	10110	8364	12310	9930	47070	38490	35200	37760	29170	14060	12180	9960	12850	8135	13320	12150	3082	11910	14680	8217	19250	8295	11670	23200	49280	36670	9353	14520	40320	10390	14950	36940	10430	9191	16970	10520	17670	13260	9470	21630
2021-09-23	17680	16190	5388	10530	14050	8697	15650	12890	5823	27550	14220	16310	13770	19410	6440	30540	45100	35720	7872	24210	15120	14430	17480	21920	44400	31420	156800	13040	28290	20020	8444	9751	43600	7726	44830	12140	77980	15730	10800	41000	10080	17930	29700	58640	10130	36750	11140	13100	12810	15720	28210	20580	27130	11150	23560	12000	15060	38540	13560	17920	11560	15310	28570	3902	22340	19760	8740	15030	39260	39030	10320	9600	8129	14660	52080	5675	19140	705	9580	6946	9809	42260	5545	71320	41820	5374	12780	46450	15540	14200	14920	7702	9553	31910	5745	24570	43400	25190	11200	41630	10650	18590	45650	13610	5951	10390	13190	8980	14910	12600	9529	8515	12470	35820	14810	15840	10000	11860	4990	12770	39470	17710	8731	13460	12160	15640	9507	9226	13970	33580	16070	11510	6000	9573	27010	14820	89580	12440	7306	14670	9860	32810	12530	7807	33000	18340	8087	22100	9829	30740	11690	15480	30250	8063	15170	9702	11870	36030	13490	12720	10050	12990	38870	12140	10430	35670	14600	13400	8745	11690	4348	11370	24980	14950	11000	12030	36330	18770	57000	26640	40280	16900	112500	55620	8188	33760	11510	12300	15090	77260	30520	19020	5990	5110	88200	14700	35760	4999	7762	9365	24230	5695	6160	12610	20970	14480	22970	10320	31410	7473	6590	3669	18320	11990	13470	44300	14490	47600	17050	22250	14720	6298	10680	20490	11540	10280	49540	17440	5204	19290	26520	7946	12120	27090	34710	12940	48670	15600	7850	38080	323	16970	7225	14700	11250	25270	24770	24530	8660	22360	18470	43320	19120	9819	15610	24500	31560	8218	18500	4970	34390	9526	10750	7483	35990	12360	8652	13590	11200	3177	3790	41100	49960	10600	7445	10940	38960	9570	11500	74330	667	27330	20990	27210	10900	10590	7772	11540	12080	29680	5361	8559	12720	8608	40720	9833	8501	11090	14500	11400	13350	22970	27030	21700	36040	11310	14450	27020	14310	10460	9762	8285	38160	28360	33140	10080	8377	40750	8759	23990	17730	28900	21320	32530	10290	8745	8840	19940	14690	10550	6502	15610	10430	23890	13070	12070	9721	3735	41860	30610	10160	8394	12400	9980	47220	38620	35290	37850	29260	14110	12220	9980	12900	8165	13370	12210	3097	12040	14720	8244	19430	8341	11740	23260	49410	36810	9389	14590	40460	10410	15010	37050	10460	9219	17040	10560	17730	13330	9508	21680
2021-09-24	17840	16410	5404	10600	14100	8768	15730	12970	5882	27700	14270	16360	13810	19490	6468	30600	45220	35880	7905	24260	15180	14490	17520	21980	44590	31470	157200	13110	28330	20120	8496	9784	43710	7749	44940	12170	78190	15770	10850	41080	10100	18020	29750	58740	10170	36840	11170	13130	12850	15750	28280	20740	27240	11190	23620	12060	15100	38750	13610	18070	11580	15400	28670	3941	22440	19800	8757	15080	39450	39200	10350	9629	8166	14720	52400	5721	19210	710	9667	6979	9868	42460	5568	71590	41990	5393	12810	46550	15610	14250	14960	7738	9618	32020	5770	24660	43550	25320	11230	41780	10740	18760	45750	13740	5977	10420	13280	9015	14950	12650	9598	8540	12600	35960	14860	15940	10020	11920	5014	12820	39560	17760	8755	13500	12200	15790	9545	9271	14060	33990	16170	11540	6021	9617	27100	14860	90310	12470	7339	14710	9902	32870	12570	7880	33060	18390	8117	22160	9877	30800	11720	15560	30310	8099	15210	9719	11910	36100	13560	12760	10100	13170	38970	12220	10460	35760	14670	13440	8832	11730	4380	11420	25040	14990	11060	12090	36400	18820	57210	26720	40380	16940	112900	55780	8209	33850	11570	12350	15200	77490	30600	19070	6013	5128	88390	14760	35840	5023	7804	9421	24290	5712	6192	12640	21060	14560	23040	10420	31510	7497	6616	3702	18460	12050	13510	44430	14550	47690	17140	22350	14890	6326	10720	20550	11580	10330	49920	17530	5229	19340	26640	7977	12190	27170	34850	12970	48790	15680	7882	38170	331	17030	7279	14730	11330	25370	24860	24600	8724	22430	18530	43400	19180	9860	15660	24710	31730	8249	18550	4987	34480	9553	10780	7494	36130	12420	8676	13630	11230	3192	3808	41200	50070	10650	7509	10960	39080	9605	11550	74570	676	27480	21030	27290	10940	10690	7798	11590	12130	29720	5389	8604	12760	8655	41010	9878	8538	11140	14540	11450	13390	23040	27110	21770	36120	11340	14500	27090	14380	10520	9801	8370	38300	28450	33240	10120	8401	40880	8788	24040	17760	29090	21390	32650	10330	8774	8864	20050	14730	10600	6522	15640	10460	23950	13120	12120	9772	3761	41910	30680	10200	8422	12510	10020	47350	38750	35370	37930	29350	14170	12250	10010	12950	8196	13420	12260	3112	12180	14760	8271	19620	8381	11800	23330	49490	36950	9422	14650	40590	10430	15070	37140	10490	9245	17110	10600	17780	13390	9546	21730
2021-09-25	17980	16620	5420	10680	14150	8828	15800	13050	5936	27860	14310	16390	13840	19560	6496	30640	45330	36010	7930	24300	15230	14540	17560	22040	44750	31510	157600	13190	28370	20220	8549	9814	43790	7767	45040	12200	78390	15800	10900	41170	10130	18090	29810	58810	10200	36940	11200	13170	12900	15780	28340	20880	27340	11230	23670	12120	15140	38920	13660	18230	11600	15500	28770	3981	22540	19850	8769	15120	39610	39370	10390	9657	8202	14760	52680	5757	19280	715	9747	7010	9930	42650	5591	71820	42150	5411	12840	46660	15680	14290	14990	7768	9676	32140	5795	24740	43680	25430	11260	41910	10830	18880	45860	13850	6004	10450	13360	9049	15000	12710	9649	8567	12700	36100	14900	16050	10030	11960	5039	12870	39630	17790	8782	13550	12240	15910	9575	9309	14140	34270	16270	11570	6041	9659	27190	14890	90770	12490	7371	14750	9944	32930	12610	7953	33120	18430	8147	22210	9926	30850	11750	15630	30370	8134	15260	9732	11940	36170	13630	12800	10150	13270	39070	12290	10490	35850	14740	13470	8903	11760	4413	11460	25100	15030	11110	12120	36470	18870	57390	26790	40460	16970	113200	55930	8234	33920	11620	12390	15300	77690	30690	19110	6037	5142	88570	14810	35910	5047	7845	9470	24350	5728	6224	12670	21160	14620	23110	10500	31600	7522	6638	3730	18590	12100	13540	44570	14610	47780	17220	22440	15010	6355	10770	20600	11610	10370	50260	17610	5246	19390	26750	8008	12260	27240	34980	13000	48880	15740	7913	38260	337	17090	7332	14750	11400	25430	24940	24670	8779	22490	18590	43480	19250	9901	15700	24860	31850	8281	18590	5004	34540	9582	10800	7504	36260	12480	8698	13680	11260	3208	3823	41300	50160	10700	7566	10990	39200	9639	11600	74790	683	27620	21070	27360	10960	10780	7826	11640	12190	29750	5417	8650	12790	8701	41260	9921	8576	11180	14580	11500	13420	23110	27200	21830	36160	11360	14550	27170	14440	10580	9840	8441	38440	28540	33330	10170	8415	41010	8811	24090	17790	29260	21450	32760	10380	8801	8888	20140	14770	10640	6534	15660	10500	24000	13170	12170	9822	3788	41960	30730	10250	8445	12600	10060	47450	38860	35440	38010	29430	14220	12280	10030	12980	8226	13460	12300	3128	12280	14790	8298	19770	8418	11840	23390	49580	37080	9453	14710	40700	10450	15130	37230	10520	9271	17170	10630	17820	13460	9586	21780

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-09-18 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-09-18