COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-09-22

	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	2021-08-30	2021-08-30	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-08-23	2021-07-11	--	2021-08-17	2021-08-23	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-12	2021-07-07	12-29	--	12-27	2021-07-08	2021-09-06	2021-07-07	2021-05-10	2021-07-06	2021-01-01	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-31	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-18	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-08-26	--	2021-07-28	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-06-20	2021-08-23	2021-07-07	2021-08-29	2021-07-07	2021-08-10	2021-07-07	2021-08-26	2021-09-04	2021-07-06	2021-08-10	2021-08-28	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-22	2021-08-24	2021-07-07	2021-07-27	--	2021-07-06	2021-08-30	2021-08-10	2021-07-07	2021-07-02	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-01-02	2021-07-07	2021-08-13	2021-07-07	2021-08-09	2021-08-03	2021-07-07	2021-08-15	2021-06-21	2021-07-08	2021-08-30	2021-07-06	2021-08-10	2021-08-18	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-06-13	2021-07-06	2021-08-22	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-08-31	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-06	2021-08-10	2021-08-22	2021-07-08	2021-08-17	2021-08-14	2021-08-29	2021-09-10	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-04	2021-07-07	2021-08-23	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-09-11	2021-07-06	2021-08-24	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-09	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-08-16	2021-08-15	2021-07-08	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-04	2021-08-25	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-06	2021-07-10	2021-07-07	2021-06-23	2021-08-17	2021-07-08	2021-09-09	2021-08-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-10	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	12-27	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-01-03	2021-07-03	2021-07-08	--	2021-07-21	--	12-26	2021-08-26	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-08-12	2021-07-10	--	2021-07-07	12-08	2021-07-08	2021-08-09	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-08-12	2021-08-12	2021-07-07	2021-08-25	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-09	2021-08-29	2021-07-17	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-03	2021-07-07	2021-07-30	2021-08-27	2021-08-14	2021-08-26	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-08	--	2021-08-22	--	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-04	2021-07-05	2021-09-08	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-26	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-08-29	2021-07-07	2021-08-29	2021-06-22	2021-08-16	2021-07-07	2021-06-22	2021-08-05	2021-07-07	2021-01-01	2021-09-09	2021-07-06	2021-08-23	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-08-23	2021-07-05	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-06-28	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-24	2021-08-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	12-23	2021-08-09	2021-06-28	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	07-21	--	2021-08-12	2021-07-06	2021-08-09	2021-08-18	2021-07-07	2021-08-04	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-08-09	--	2021-08-16	2021-07-07	2021-08-21	2021-07-21	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-06-27	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-25	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-04	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-18	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-06-22	2021-07-08	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-08-16	2021-08-12	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-12	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-09	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-26	2021-07-07	2021-08-24	2021-08-09	2021-08-25	2021-07-07	2021-08-14	2021-08-27	2021-08-09	2021-08-24	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-09	2021-08-23	2021-06-29	2021-07-07	2021-08-24	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-08-30	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	2021-07-05
Peak daily increment	170	218	51	115	105	85	100		95	194	127	93	63	101	57	93	260	274	49	139	152	144	210	103	378	177	1250		157	159	70	61	208	42	484	107	478	103	57	175	68	94	218	619	60	258	94	72	97	74	161	166		72	159	69	60	231	115	187	100	102	227	45	127	170	65	87	270	243	82	73	69	121	562	67	141	13		115	71	714	41	606	377	53	104	230	122	140	92	53	86	246	48	206	400	183	47	272	140	184	189	130	46	135	182	62	122	88	112	65	155	296	73	106	61	90	29	82	145	105	58	110	128	179	66	58	172	404	124	67	56	82	274	123	926	95	59	63	113	163	69	88	230	81	84	157		152	61	113	143	65	146	55	71	151		82	73	196	197		84	130	101	71	135	56	44	87	189	84		71	246	93	271	311	301	117	705	284	51	213		99		727	113	120	41	47	442	97	169		71	106	124	72	37	101	120	114	274	112	197	49	39	34	23	94	116	384	105	155	102	143	160	84	93	231	78		611		34	203	228	77	87	126	322	87	264	158	36	255	8	131	80	57	113	145	343	207	85	104	83	120	297	57	114	283	58		140	66	213	75	69	49	208		47	116	69	20	30	253	255	94	83	123	195	65	96	482	25		66	277	92	117	49	72	68	345	86		75	68	462	58	68	77	92	107	75	303	200	152	243	69	131	141		77	56	90	243	339	242	74	69	428	58	145	101	249	151	219	83	60	143	137	116	92	42	93	78	100	105	131	44	61	226	184	59	64		79	352	191	158	312	195	110	73	70	84	38	102	94	70	154	94	47	201	69	72	138	382	350	60	83	243	59	93	185	99	63	73	76	117	120	74	138
Days since peak	23	23	76	78	78	30	73		36	30	77	78	78	77	78	76	76	79	77	78	77	78	77	78	72	77	267		269	76	16	77	135	78	264	77	77	77	22	77	77	35	77	77	78	78	77	77	79	77	78	27		56	76	77	94	30	77	24	77	43	77	27	18	78	43	25	77	77	78	44	77	77	31	29	77	57		78	23	43	77	82	77	77	77	77	77	78	76	77	78	263	77	40	77	44	50	77	38	93	76	23	78	43	35	77	77	77	101	78	31	78	77	22	77	77	45	77	75	77	79	78	43	31	76	36	39	24	12	77	77	78	80	77	30	77	76	76	77	76	77	11	78	29	77	77		75	78	77	77	77	79	37	38	76		77	80	28	77		78	74	77	91	36	76	13	45	77	74		77	77	76	77	269	77	76	77	262	81	76		63		270	27	77	77	77	76	41	74		77	288	76	44	76	77	41	41	77	28	77	77	44	24	67	76	78	81	77	54	26	39	27	44	77	79	76		31		78	77	80	79	14	76	78	58	77	76	24	77	24	92	37	77	92	48	77	264	13	78	30	76	77	76	77	30	79		77	78	79	77	86	76	76		77	77	77	29	45	77	78	78	273	44	86	78	76	76	428		41	78	44	35	77	49	79	77	44		37	77	32	63	76	78	77	77	76	87	77	77	77	77	77	77		77	77	28	77	78	80	77	76	79	77	77	77	35	77	77	92	76	44	77	78	77	37	41	77	78	77	77	41	44	77	79	76	77		77	78	77	75	78	77	76	77	77	77	27	77	29	44	28	77	39	26	44	29	77	77	76	75	30	85	77	29	77	78	77	23	76	77	78	76	79
Last total	17368	15793	5463	10612	14133	8562	15592	12808	5634	27284	14243	16399	13771	19485	6434	30429	45051	35941	7952	24177	15149	14534	17535	21986	44119	31375	156499	13073	28231	19861	8418	9742	43531	7746	44673	12155	78092	15824	10781	40865	10054	17930	29813	58714	10126	36657	11246	13079	12873	15707	28158	20368	27253	11149	23456	11962	15045	38542	13587	17706	11555	15209	28602	3849	22304	19866	8763	15045	39345	38968	10328	9573	8196	14724	51371	5627	19233	708	9610	6924	9766	42403	5493	71177	41880	5406	12842	46427	15581	14172	14927	7815	9563	31902	5797	24534	43583	25179	11190	41554	10462	18338	45505	13498	6045	10421	13025	8959	14950	12579	9354	8575	12078	35769	14784	15812	9983	11917	4998	12844	39422	17649	8803	13458	12138	15385	9494	9231	13833	32858	16104	11475	5977	9569	27104	14920	88207	12468	7297	14605	9887	32739	12638	7714	32900	18345	8177	22016	9964	30705	11635	15563	30253	8133	15116	9692	11866	35899	13661	12733	10088	12550	38865	12138	10456	35671	14764	13343	8454	11744	4338	11408	24872	14923	11305	12012	36321	18768	57172	26551	40129	16985	112408	55391	8167	33649	11631	12271	14943	77106	30476	19063	5956	5111	87938	14702	35638	5091	7757	9328	24209	5703	6158	12664	20906	14459	22908	10077	31356	7486	6625	3648	18359	12009	13521	44244	14508	47423	17028	22073	14348	6308	10699	20496	11528	10342	48617	17684	5196	19305	26423	7963	12140	27318	34819	12976	48613	15698	7830	37968	305	17084	7198	14694	11261	25205	24834	24571	8585	22346	18419	43209	18993	9901	15690	23995	31527	8296	18599	4981	34294	9506	10739	7524	36078	12523	8662	13635	11235	3175	3806	41019	50063	10621	7300	11018	39100	9653	11549	74245	633	27571	21012	27308	11007	10452	7774	11506	12130	29823	5416	8578	12833	8598	39968	9790	8550	11082	14443	11411	13360	22818	27024	21589	35992	11305	14512	27015	14563	10497	9726	8055	38320	28269	33175	10174	8409	40629	8774	24019	17649	28854	21355	32612	10276	8788	8894	19962	14718	10556	6512	15571	10455	23797	13122	12007	9738	3721	41823	30775	10218	8418	12371	10011	47403	38561	35141	37883	29171	14190	12176	10053	12917	8245	13369	12100	3106	11794	14742	8321	19017	8290	11802	23137	49511	36852	9413	14622	40424	10460	14961	37144	10444	9224	17021	10616	17678	13316	9497	21738
Last daily increment	104	112	37	112	66	51	83	84	39	144	52	83	42	119	30	27	116	234	45	45	73	81	59	66	199	48	371	96	42	83	1	39	109	26	97	52	261	72	51	60	28	1	101	92	31	65	56	20	48	37	55	14	135	40	48	57	26	17	85	1	24	85	111	0	101	71	20	74	221	178	48	28	37	55	245	44	72	4	35	34	55	243	25	253	207	26	64	114	93	52	27	55	28	133	46	92	199	135	22	160	88	125	101	130	51	54	54	43	57	54	37	46	57	158	47	87	26	67	28	49	77	23	45	33	44	104	33	61	64	265	35	21	21	65	123	63	399	31	46	22	31	48	57	17	46	72	66	33	94	66	22	116	84	40	42	13	62	33	157	51	69	57	90	79	55	99	93	32	41	58	10	76	35	27	129	40	103	65	240	83	56	75	361	155	20	29	76	39	100	204	93	46	15	20	161	80	52	52	55	7	56	25	31	43	84	83	70	69	115	21	2	38	1	74	56	134	64	38	28	75	94	48	49	82	42	58	254	123	26	57	98	44	86	141	182	47	117	88	28	95	0	86	2	39	82	84	117	102	9	57	53	46	45	76	68	126	11	54	73	26	51	34	27	18	213	72	16	74	42	19	28	107	171	73	48	66	159	58	45	255	1	187	53	134	74	92	25	59	71	75	37	47	60	49	196	38	41	39	30	72	42	51	83	51	51	43	67	84	139	58	32	36	191	66	119	73	25	130	36	65	20	8	70	143	49	40	58	129	37	45	19	17	36	39	54	55	1	24	41	150	49	19	2	55	211	118	38	106	88	61	22	51	65	34	19	43	18	71	61	45	145	37	57	34	153	193	51	86	143	29	45	119	23	34	12	65	46	69	43	75
Last week	692	874	200	641	444	283	485	459	247	809	344	456	258	663	193	287	833	1329	357	347	482	479	408	478	1090	373	2308	542	302	502	305	240	615	174	720	274	1717	379	339	449	166	538	590	801	271	592	369	198	377	248	407	952	910	254	302	413	230	1353	479	789	161	491	766	216	680	476	179	406	1497	1146	297	192	344	446	1373	235	602	37	585	203	381	1539	152	1666	1191	163	315	697	525	322	260	363	417	832	235	566	1304	917	201	931	406	663	588	643	291	323	474	259	413	376	235	292	322	972	352	621	149	446	179	450	536	207	282	338	263	689	193	366	452	1604	629	182	162	308	713	429	2399	205	220	187	319	397	410	417	322	417	311	295	495	454	142	643	529	325	278	98	303	368	804	297	385	468	712	530	307	702	655	191	291	380	234	363	291	251	800	340	659	346	1599	443	442	549	2341	998	120	411	510	263	542	1362	569	374	121	113	965	440	417	270	365	360	441	116	253	262	636	444	416	329	631	192	244	176	865	405	362	880	399	453	639	518	563	200	351	466	280	400	1685	880	156	539	617	239	537	828	1135	279	693	574	189	548	14	542	379	245	557	539	681	578	373	498	395	531	326	363	506	730	1383	307	488	122	429	171	163	129	1146	601	193	412	264	112	147	618	944	393	255	319	989	337	369	1519	13	1251	368	711	352	538	228	368	433	555	289	340	418	299	1259	251	301	314	254	411	332	355	615	331	406	211	407	611	810	444	241	311	1208	471	750	475	186	798	245	415	158	1250	688	912	290	252	239	716	333	326	150	149	283	299	376	312	372	169	374	811	408	236	667	388	1263	796	376	638	496	474	208	267	334	310	355	310	126	526	331	277	762	232	471	282	892	1340	320	489	830	239	413	814	177	200	394	349	312	427	279	408
Previous peak date	07-21	07-21	12-27	12-26	12-27	07-21	12-21	12-26	07-21	12-21	12-21	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-23	12-28	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	2021-01-02	2021-01-11	11-02	12-21	10-07	12-22	11-02	12-27	10-13	10-13	12-07	2021-01-07	10-15	11-13	11-02	12-21	10-24	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-14	12-06	12-28	11-02	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-30	12-30	10-27	12-07	10-26	12-21	12-27	12-26	12-08	12-06	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-22	12-21	--	11-02	12-22	12-28	12-25	12-22	12-21	2021-01-03	12-21	12-21	12-30	07-21	07-21	12-26	--	12-28	12-26	12-27	12-29	12-24	11-02	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-28	10-27	2021-02-25	10-01	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	07-21	07-21	12-27	07-21	12-24	12-29	07-21	12-24	12-21	11-09	07-21	12-26	07-21	10-31	12-27	12-30	12-28	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-25	12-21	12-22	2021-01-06	--	07-21	12-23	12-27	12-22	07-21	12-25	12-18	12-25	10-15	10-29	12-26	07-21	12-21	12-28	12-21	12-21	12-27	12-21	2021-01-05	12-22	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-23	12-13	12-27	12-13	12-27	12-22	12-29	--	12-28	2021-07-07	12-22	12-26	12-21	2021-01-01	07-21	12-28	06-11	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-25	11-01	12-21	10-27	09-29	12-29	2021-01-06	11-02	11-02	12-21	12-27	2021-07-07	11-02	12-22	09-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-31	11-02	2021-01-02	12-22	2021-07-05	2021-01-07	--	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-31	07-21	12-22	12-27	12-06	07-21	12-07	12-28	12-29	11-02	11-03	12-27	12-06	12-27	07-21	12-08	10-14	10-26	12-26	12-21	07-21	11-07	12-21	12-29	11-04	12-21	2021-07-07	12-27	12-21	2021-01-01	11-02	12-29	11-02	10-22	--	12-27	12-28	12-26	07-21	2021-01-06	11-02	11-02	12-06	11-02	12-29	12-21	12-31	2021-01-05	12-22	07-21	12-06	12-26	12-21	12-27	10-19	12-10	10-11	12-13	10-18	2021-07-07	12-28	10-13	12-25	2021-01-26	2021-01-02	11-02	12-29	10-31	07-21	12-21	12-31	12-29	12-22	11-02	--	12-30	12-25	12-25	12-21	07-21	12-21	12-21	12-28	12-26	--	2021-01-04	12-22	11-09	07-21	12-21	12-22	12-20	2021-01-03	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	12-25	12-26	10-27	12-22	07-21	12-28	12-27	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-02	12-25	10-18	2021-01-02	12-26	12-30	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-26	12-21	12-19	12-22	12-23	12-27	12-06	--	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-26	12-08	12-21	11-01	12-27	12-27	12-15	12-25	11-02	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-26	12-20	--	07-21	11-02	12-07	07-21	12-22	12-23	12-22	10-16	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	2021-01-01	12-28	12-25	12-31	12-21	12-30	12-26	11-02
Previous peak daily increment	616	365	61	88	97	295	134	84	119	260	170	110	171	178	78	477	589	189	58	326	128	110	271	233	262	426	1226	68	166	98	95	58	234	50	363	142	434	228	107	524	155	233	307	1197	107	508	94	186	62	122	160	211	135	99	256	87	148	354	172	194	175	107	303		294	268	52	197	249	283	59	91	71	65	1272	83	243		37	53	94	285	34	553	288	38	181	598	151	69	189	72	58	164	27	206	248	187	118	322	226	710	536	308	60	52	383	76	160	106	191	51	235	204	102	163	147	107	56	146	593	273	97	74		475	90	73	94	687	150	125	54	43	127	82	1766	92	56	180	92	451	119	34	377	219	59	201	59	401	172	103	338	101	106	136	120	476	110	159	52		442	92	116	452	143	83	248	134	45	237	275	148	77	100	283	198	349	153	428	107	1449	479	104	456	84	230	111	480	273	200	90	36	2237	92	419	40	46		298	37	62	153	186	105	213	302	361	79	62	66	191	105	63	2429	85	723	190	212	192	23	53	137	105	51	1007	107	58	122	107	41	96	277	158	121	1343	90	68	257		125	44	108	230	154	139	354	43	150	174	623	105	81	176	459	286	53	188	39	194	139	65	96	198	90	85	67	174	36	25	406	450	81	152	82	403	65	131	573		215	244	167	97	226	111	102	69	181		42	86	72	876	95	79	108	80	66	102	115	247	293	450	131	156	219	94	55	112	149	189	138	197	66	42	206	105	331	189	270	181	172	56	109	46	141	352	90	44	138	122	360	139	51	101		559	151	90	110	120	84	250	329	449	390	227	259	138	117	160	65	154	87		307	166	42	376	67	115	217	319	265	83	148	430	106	138	377	106	115	176	95	173	71	69	594
Low between peaks	0	-1	-3	-2	-7	0	3		-26	5	-11	2	-7	-16	-8	3	-2	9	-2	-28	-12	2	-14	-12	9	3	303		55	-10	0	-14	17	2	23	-8	31	-4	-5	-39	-11	1	-1	-18	-8	-8	-10	-16	-1	3	3	1		2	-18	-6	-64	5	-9	2	-2	3	-1		-7	-11	-12	-3	-9	-14	-3	-6	0	4	-11	-4	-9			1	2	-33	-1	-13	-20	-5	-8	-4	-11	-5	1	-7	0	53	-3	11	2	-29	-14	-4	-48	-3	-6	-2	-3	-7	-3	-6	-12	-2	-5	2	-1	-5	1	-18	-6	-5	0	-4	-80	-12	1	0		-4	0	0	4	-5	1	-7	-5	-9	-7	2	-7	-13	-8	-2	-8	-25	-21	1	-27	-25	-2	-5		-12	-2	-17	5	2	-1	-8	-12	-20		-1	2		-27		-1	12	-5	3	-2	-7	0	-5	-5	-5		-3	-12	-3	27	21	2	-5	41	120	1	-18		-8		58	7	-22	0	0	27	1	-45		-13		2	-10	-3	-10	6	2	5	-15	0	-3	0	0	1	-11	1	15	-15	4	2	8	-8	-5	-9	-3	-7		-7		-6	-16	5	1	41	-3	-7	-4	5	-5	1	6		1	1	3	1	5	-74	37	0	0	-8	1	-1	-52	-13	-2	1		-3	0	3	0	1	-6	0		0	1	-14	-6	-8	2	-1	-4	-4	-20	-44	3	-6	23			4	-3	-10	-2	-3	-4	-12	-23			-5	-4	-7	-11	-5	-1	2	-5	-10	2	-2	-3	-17	-2	-6	-40		-2	1	-1	-3	4	-5	-7	-12	1	-4	-13	-41	3	-9	7	-8	-5	-6	-13	-3	-7	-4	-9	2	-6	-11	-1	1		5	0	-18	-3		-18	16	-8	-23	-4	-6	-4	4	-12	-13	-5	1	-7		-2	1	-4	-2	-1	-11	7	5	-37	-9	-5	-69	0	-11	-20	-2	-5	2	1	0	-3	-6	-48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-23 to 2021-09-29

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-09-22	17368	15793	5463	10612	14133	8562	15592	12808	5634	27284	14243	16399	13771	19485	6434	30429	45051	35941	7952	24177	15149	14534	17535	21986	44119	31375	156499	13073	28231	19861	8418	9742	43531	7746	44673	12155	78092	15824	10781	40865	10054	17930	29813	58714	10126	36657	11246	13079	12873	15707	28158	20368	27253	11149	23456	11962	15045	38542	13587	17706	11555	15209	28602	3849	22304	19866	8763	15045	39345	38968	10328	9573	8196	14724	51371	5627	19233	708	9610	6924	9766	42403	5493	71177	41880	5406	12842	46427	15581	14172	14927	7815	9563	31902	5797	24534	43583	25179	11190	41554	10462	18338	45505	13498	6045	10421	13025	8959	14950	12579	9354	8575	12078	35769	14784	15812	9983	11917	4998	12844	39422	17649	8803	13458	12138	15385	9494	9231	13833	32858	16104	11475	5977	9569	27104	14920	88207	12468	7297	14605	9887	32739	12638	7714	32900	18345	8177	22016	9964	30705	11635	15563	30253	8133	15116	9692	11866	35899	13661	12733	10088	12550	38865	12138	10456	35671	14764	13343	8454	11744	4338	11408	24872	14923	11305	12012	36321	18768	57172	26551	40129	16985	112408	55391	8167	33649	11631	12271	14943	77106	30476	19063	5956	5111	87938	14702	35638	5091	7757	9328	24209	5703	6158	12664	20906	14459	22908	10077	31356	7486	6625	3648	18359	12009	13521	44244	14508	47423	17028	22073	14348	6308	10699	20496	11528	10342	48617	17684	5196	19305	26423	7963	12140	27318	34819	12976	48613	15698	7830	37968	305	17084	7198	14694	11261	25205	24834	24571	8585	22346	18419	43209	18993	9901	15690	23995	31527	8296	18599	4981	34294	9506	10739	7524	36078	12523	8662	13635	11235	3175	3806	41019	50063	10621	7300	11018	39100	9653	11549	74245	633	27571	21012	27308	11007	10452	7774	11506	12130	29823	5416	8578	12833	8598	39968	9790	8550	11082	14443	11411	13360	22818	27024	21589	35992	11305	14512	27015	14563	10497	9726	8055	38320	28269	33175	10174	8409	40629	8774	24019	17649	28854	21355	32612	10276	8788	8894	19962	14718	10556	6512	15571	10455	23797	13122	12007	9738	3721	41823	30775	10218	8418	12371	10011	47403	38561	35141	37883	29171	14190	12176	10053	12917	8245	13369	12100	3106	11794	14742	8321	19017	8290	11802	23137	49511	36852	9413	14622	40424	10460	14961	37144	10444	9224	17021	10616	17678	13316	9497	21738
2021-09-23	17650	15960	5497	10700	14150	8610	15670	12870	5673	27440	14290	16470	13810	19520	6464	30480	45210	36200	8000	24260	15220	14620	17550	22050	44320	31410	157100	13160	28310	19960	8443	9780	43650	7757	44870	12200	78200	15880	10840	40930	10080	18010	29920	58820	10170	36750	11300	13110	12900	15750	28260	20550	27370	11190	23500	12030	15090	38760	13660	18020	11580	15300	28720	3888	22420	19930	8784	15120	39470	39190	10370	9605	8225	14760	51710	5665	19280	713	9720	6957	9860	42640	5503	71510	42060	5429	12890	46580	15660	14230	14970	7863	9650	32030	5830	24630	43700	25320	11220	41720	10460	18470	45650	13610	6082	10490	13110	9001	15010	12640	9396	8598	12180	35930	14840	15910	10000	11980	5025	12880	39510	17720	8850	13510	12180	15470	9529	9273	13870	33170	16160	11530	6002	9620	27210	14980	88760	12500	7334	14640	9930	32810	12690	7769	32950	18410	8242	22070	10040	30780	11660	15650	30340	8175	15160	9737	11920	35920	13740	12780	10140	12600	38970	12190	10500	35750	14760	13410	8498	11770	4381	11460	24920	14970	11400	12060	36440	18820	57250	26630	40240	17020	112700	55680	8187	33790	11700	12320	15040	77410	30570	19110	5978	5130	88280	14760	35710	5138	7808	9383	24280	5722	6194	12720	21010	14540	22980	10150	31460	7513	6656	3678	18490	12070	13560	44380	14570	47500	17120	22120	14440	6339	10750	20560	11570	10340	49190	17800	5224	19370	26570	7999	12220	27450	34910	13020	48770	15780	7862	38110	305	17180	7254	14740	11340	25360	24870	24660	8722	22420	18480	43300	19050	9980	15690	24170	31720	8349	18670	5004	34420	9544	10770	7542	36160	12620	8689	13700	11270	3192	3828	41200	50210	10680	7354	11060	39180	9698	11600	74520	634	27750	21060	27350	11080	10550	7805	11560	12190	29890	5453	8627	12850	8645	40250	9830	8594	11130	14490	11470	13410	22890	27110	21650	36060	11340	14570	27100	14680	10560	9760	8222	38370	28350	33300	10240	8433	40760	8809	24080	17680	29180	21440	32700	10330	8810	8949	20070	14760	10610	6521	15600	10500	23900	13150	12060	9800	3750	41890	30840	10240	8450	12460	10070	47510	38720	35200	37980	29300	14260	12210	10090	12970	8247	13420	12140	3124	11840	14800	8357	19170	8332	11870	23190	49670	37040	9459	14700	40560	10490	15020	37270	10470	9251	17090	10630	17730	13390	9539	21800
2021-09-24	17830	16270	5520	10710	14200	8667	15760	12930	5719	27710	14330	16520	13850	19590	6488	30590	45360	36460	8014	24320	15270	14690	17590	22100	44590	31450	157600	13220	28360	20090	8467	9820	43750	7779	45040	12240	78380	15900	10890	41000	10110	18110	30030	58930	10220	36890	11320	13150	12930	15770	28330	20690	27420	11230	23540	12090	15150	38990	13680	18230	11620	15410	28820	3950	22550	19980	8798	15220	39610	39380	10410	9660	8225	14760	51940	5700	19290	718	9830	6990	9910	42900	5516	71790	42210	5441	12910	46800	15720	14300	15000	7867	9730	32180	5837	24730	43870	25470	11270	41890	10650	18700	45870	13740	6082	10570	13220	9049	15050	12720	9448	8620	12240	36160	14900	16010	10020	12010	5047	12880	39620	17770	8894	13600	12250	15570	9569	9309	13910	33750	16190	11580	6047	9661	27260	15020	89210	12520	7379	14710	9980	32930	12720	7801	33030	18500	8304	22160	10080	30870	11710	15710	30460	8189	15230	9773	11970	35960	13850	12810	10190	12660	39080	12240	10540	35850	14790	13450	8556	11810	4428	11510	25020	15020	11510	12130	36570	18880	57420	26750	40430	17060	113100	55880	8233	33890	11740	12380	15090	77670	30700	19160	6010	5154	88520	14830	35830	5184	7864	9464	24340	5742	6224	12800	21100	14620	23080	10330	31570	7540	6687	3712	18650	12110	13610	44510	14640	47670	17220	22160	14540	6361	10780	20640	11630	10370	49550	17870	5252	19480	26690	8026	12290	27580	35040	13080	48900	15820	7901	38220	314	17290	7331	14790	11400	25500	24920	24770	8800	22470	18580	43440	19160	10040	15730	24290	31910	8400	18710	5025	34520	9576	10790	7564	36300	12710	8719	13730	11300	3213	3845	41340	50370	10720	7463	11090	39270	9720	11630	74790	643	27870	21130	27430	11160	10680	7827	11630	12220	29930	5478	8655	12900	8690	40470	9890	8616	11190	14550	11550	13470	23010	27210	21750	36190	11380	14620	27160	14800	10600	9810	8323	38490	28480	33450	10250	8455	40920	8835	24150	17750	29430	21570	32820	10380	8815	9020	20170	14800	10660	6548	15640	10520	23980	13200	12150	9860	3784	42030	30930	10280	8478	12540	10100	47670	38890	35280	38070	29390	14300	12270	10120	13030	8265	13460	12190	3143	11900	14860	8366	19470	8402	11920	23300	49790	37250	9495	14760	40700	10520	15120	37390	10510	9284	17170	10660	17830	13440	9593	21860
2021-09-25	17960	16510	5547	10760	14250	8718	15840	12980	5761	27920	14370	16570	13880	19660	6514	30680	45470	36680	8043	24360	15330	14760	17650	22160	44830	31480	157900	13290	28410	20210	8495	9860	43840	7794	45160	12280	78580	15930	10930	41050	10140	18210	30120	59040	10270	37010	11360	13180	12980	15800	28390	20800	27500	11270	23580	12160	15180	39160	13720	18370	11650	15510	28930	3999	22670	20030	8815	15310	39770	39530	10450	9704	8239	14770	52080	5734	19320	724	9920	7023	9970	43140	5527	72030	42370	5458	12940	46980	15790	14340	15040	7891	9790	32310	5856	24820	44000	25580	11310	42010	10790	18870	46050	13860	6092	10650	13310	9094	15100	12780	9495	8646	12280	36360	14940	16110	10020	12060	5071	12890	39720	17810	8938	13670	12300	15630	9606	9355	13940	34200	16240	11600	6082	9705	27340	15070	89510	12550	7420	14760	10020	33020	12760	7838	33100	18570	8366	22230	10130	30950	11750	15780	30560	8215	15290	9794	12020	35990	13950	12840	10240	12680	39190	12290	10580	35930	14810	13480	8605	11860	4470	11570	25090	15070	11610	12160	36700	18930	57610	26850	40580	17110	113500	56030	8266	33970	11790	12430	15140	77870	30810	19200	6038	5176	88700	14870	35930	5228	7916	9534	24410	5761	6257	12870	21200	14690	23160	10450	31670	7566	6719	3743	18810	12160	13650	44640	14700	47790	17320	22200	14630	6387	10820	20710	11680	10390	49830	17950	5273	19570	26790	8056	12360	27690	35150	13130	49010	15880	7937	38290	321	17390	7398	14810	11470	25590	24960	24860	8872	22530	18660	43560	19240	10100	15780	24370	32100	8451	18770	5047	34590	9599	10820	7581	36420	12800	8748	13780	11330	3232	3863	41460	50500	10770	7544	11130	39380	9752	11660	75000	648	28020	21180	27520	11230	10790	7853	11690	12270	29980	5509	8692	12940	8735	40630	9950	8648	11240	14610	11610	13510	23110	27290	21830	36290	11420	14680	27230	14910	10650	9850	8390	38620	28590	33590	10280	8477	41060	8865	24220	17800	29610	21670	32920	10420	8826	9082	20270	14840	10710	6571	15670	10560	24030	13230	12220	9910	3814	42140	31020	10320	8508	12630	10150	47810	39000	35340	38160	29470	14360	12310	10150	13080	8297	13510	12230	3161	11950	14910	8387	19690	8458	11980	23380	49920	37440	9536	14830	40810	10540	15190	37510	10550	9306	17250	10700	17900	13500	9640	21910
2021-09-26	18060	16720	5574	10820	14320	8764	15920	13030	5799	28110	14420	16630	13920	19740	6541	30740	45600	36920	8080	24410	15400	14830	17720	22210	45040	31520	158300	13360	28440	20310	8524	9900	43920	7817	45280	12310	78780	15970	10980	41130	10160	18300	30190	59150	10320	37120	11400	13220	13030	15840	28460	20950	27600	11310	23620	12220	15220	39370	13770	18530	11680	15600	29040	4043	22790	20090	8834	15380	39950	39700	10480	9741	8258	14790	52230	5769	19350	729	10000	7055	10020	43370	5536	72290	42530	5476	12970	47140	15860	14370	15080	7923	9850	32440	5880	24920	44180	25690	11340	42160	10910	19020	46210	13970	6115	10720	13400	9136	15150	12850	9538	8687	12340	36540	14990	16210	10030	12110	5096	12910	39810	17840	8980	13730	12350	15710	9640	9403	13980	34580	16290	11640	6111	9749	27430	15120	89790	12570	7456	14810	10070	33100	12810	7859	33160	18640	8424	22290	10190	31030	11780	15850	30650	8248	15340	9807	12070	36020	14060	12880	10290	12760	39300	12360	10620	36020	14870	13510	8648	11900	4510	11610	25160	15110	11690	12200	36820	18980	57810	26930	40710	17170	113800	56190	8293	34040	11850	12470	15190	78080	30910	19280	6062	5195	88870	14920	36010	5269	7966	9599	24470	5779	6290	12930	21300	14770	23230	10550	31770	7592	6751	3773	18960	12210	13710	44770	14760	47890	17420	22240	14720	6414	10860	20780	11730	10420	50060	18050	5290	19650	26890	8087	12440	27820	35300	13180	49120	15950	7969	38380	326	17480	7459	14850	11550	25670	24990	24950	8928	22600	18730	43660	19310	10170	15830	24460	32310	8501	18820	5067	34660	9624	10840	7594	36570	12890	8776	13830	11360	3249	3882	41570	50620	10820	7610	11170	39510	9787	11710	75220	651	28170	21230	27610	11300	10890	7881	11740	12320	30040	5541	8733	12990	8780	40780	9990	8684	11290	14660	11670	13560	23200	27380	21900	36370	11460	14730	27310	15050	10700	9890	8444	38770	28690	33720	10330	8500	41190	8896	24290	17840	29810	21770	33040	10450	8841	9136	20370	14890	10750	6591	15700	10590	24070	13290	12290	9970	3843	42230	31120	10370	8539	12710	10200	47990	39100	35410	38250	29530	14410	12350	10190	13130	8340	13560	12270	3178	12000	14960	8413	19880	8507	12040	23450	50040	37630	9577	14890	40930	10570	15260	37620	10580	9337	17320	10740	17970	13560	9684	21970
2021-09-27	18210	16920	5602	10890	14390	8809	15990	13080	5836	28280	14460	16690	13970	19860	6568	30810	45760	37200	8119	24480	15460	14900	17770	22270	45240	31550	158700	13440	28520	20410	8553	9940	44050	7851	45400	12350	79080	16010	11050	41210	10190	18380	30260	59250	10360	37220	11440	13250	13090	15890	28550	21140	27700	11350	23660	12290	15260	39630	13830	18720	11700	15690	29150	4085	22900	20150	8853	15460	40220	39920	10520	9777	8280	14820	52490	5804	19390	734	10120	7087	10100	43590	5545	72610	42690	5495	13000	47300	15930	14450	15110	7958	9930	32560	5905	25010	44440	25850	11380	42320	11030	19160	46360	14070	6140	10780	13480	9177	15200	12910	9580	8740	12420	36710	15050	16310	10040	12170	5120	12940	39890	17890	9021	13790	12400	15860	9675	9476	14010	34950	16340	11680	6139	9794	27510	15170	90330	12600	7493	14850	10120	33180	12850	7910	33220	18710	8482	22340	10250	31100	11820	15930	30740	8282	15390	9828	12120	36040	14200	12920	10340	12830	39400	12450	10660	36160	14940	13550	8690	11970	4550	11660	25220	15160	11840	12280	36930	19030	58070	27020	40840	17260	114200	56420	8318	34130	11910	12520	15240	78360	31010	19340	6086	5215	89070	15000	36100	5310	8016	9662	24540	5798	6323	12990	21390	14840	23310	10640	31870	7618	6783	3803	19110	12270	13780	44900	14820	47990	17510	22280	14810	6440	10910	20850	11770	10470	50430	18150	5320	19720	27000	8119	12510	27950	35490	13220	49230	16020	8002	38480	331	17600	7519	14900	11620	25780	25060	25040	9019	22660	18800	43760	19380	10230	15920	24600	32510	8552	18880	5087	34750	9657	10870	7617	36770	12990	8803	13880	11390	3266	3901	41730	50790	10870	7672	11200	39700	9824	11750	75510	654	28330	21290	27730	11360	10990	7909	11800	12370	30100	5573	8775	13070	8825	41060	10040	8721	11340	14710	11730	13620	23270	27490	21960	36450	11490	14790	27430	15170	10760	9930	8524	38970	28780	33850	10370	8523	41320	8928	24350	17880	30100	21860	33210	10510	8857	9190	20470	14950	10800	6609	15730	10630	24140	13360	12350	10030	3872	42310	31250	10430	8570	12800	10240	48210	39280	35470	38330	29650	14470	12390	10220	13180	8398	13610	12300	3196	12040	15010	8441	20060	8553	12100	23520	50210	37810	9618	14960	41100	10600	15330	37770	10610	9380	17380	10800	18030	13620	9727	22030
2021-09-28	18330	17100	5631	10960	14460	8853	16070	13130	5872	28440	14510	16750	14010	19970	6596	30870	45880	37470	8162	24550	15520	14980	17830	22340	45440	31580	159100	13510	28570	20510	8583	9970	44150	7883	45520	12390	79360	16060	11110	41290	10220	18470	30380	59360	10410	37320	11480	13280	13160	15940	28630	21290	27800	11390	23700	12350	15300	39880	13890	18850	11730	15780	29260	4124	23010	20210	8873	15530	40460	40100	10560	9809	8305	14850	52730	5839	19440	739	10210	7118	10180	43820	5554	72890	42860	5516	13040	47440	16000	14490	15150	7999	10000	32690	5933	25100	44650	26020	11410	42460	11130	19280	46500	14180	6170	10840	13560	9218	15260	12970	9621	8796	12470	36870	15110	16410	10050	12220	5146	12970	39980	17930	9063	13850	12440	15960	9708	9532	14050	35280	16400	11710	6164	9841	27610	15220	90700	12620	7528	14890	10160	33260	12900	7943	33270	18780	8541	22400	10320	31170	11840	16010	30820	8321	15430	9845	12170	36070	14340	12960	10390	12890	39500	12530	10700	36270	15000	13580	8729	12040	4589	11710	25280	15200	11970	12330	37050	19080	58330	27090	40950	17360	114700	56570	8339	34210	11970	12560	15310	78590	31110	19400	6108	5233	89230	15080	36170	5351	8064	9722	24600	5816	6358	13050	21490	14910	23380	10720	31970	7644	6815	3832	19260	12320	13850	45030	14880	48080	17610	22330	14890	6468	10960	20920	11810	10510	50770	18250	5351	19790	27100	8153	12590	28080	35690	13260	49360	16090	8033	38580	336	17710	7576	14940	11700	25860	25110	25120	9088	22730	18860	43860	19440	10300	16010	24710	32720	8602	18950	5107	34820	9683	10900	7640	36960	13080	8830	13930	11430	3283	3920	41850	50940	10920	7726	11240	39870	9864	11800	75760	657	28500	21350	27850	11420	11080	7938	11860	12430	30160	5608	8820	13130	8871	41230	10080	8761	11380	14760	11790	13670	23340	27600	22020	36530	11520	14840	27530	15310	10820	9970	8580	39170	28860	33980	10430	8546	41440	8961	24410	17910	30290	21940	33360	10560	8875	9241	20570	15020	10850	6622	15760	10670	24210	13410	12400	10090	3900	42390	31390	10510	8602	12890	10300	48420	39400	35530	38420	29740	14540	12430	10250	13230	8447	13660	12340	3214	12090	15060	8472	20220	8596	12160	23580	50370	37990	9661	15030	41230	10630	15390	37920	10640	9419	17450	10840	18080	13680	9769	22090
2021-09-29	18440	17280	5660	11040	14520	8896	16150	13170	5908	28600	14560	16810	14050	20070	6624	30920	45990	37660	8206	24600	15590	15050	17880	22400	45630	31610	159400	13590	28620	20600	8613	10010	44250	7907	45630	12430	79590	16110	11160	41350	10240	18550	30470	59460	10450	37410	11530	13310	13210	15970	28680	21360	27910	11430	23740	12420	15330	39980	13950	18920	11760	15870	29370	4162	23130	20270	8894	15600	40650	40280	10600	9841	8332	14880	53010	5875	19480	744	10280	7150	10230	44040	5563	73140	43030	5536	13080	47590	16080	14540	15190	8042	10030	32810	5963	25190	44830	26160	11440	42610	11230	19400	46640	14270	6202	10910	13640	9258	15310	13030	9661	8838	12520	37020	15150	16510	10070	12280	5171	13000	40060	17960	9105	13900	12480	16060	9741	9587	14080	35600	16450	11740	6188	9888	27700	15280	91090	12650	7562	14930	10210	33330	12960	7980	33320	18840	8599	22450	10390	31240	11870	16090	30910	8360	15480	9861	12210	36090	14470	13000	10450	12970	39600	12600	10740	36370	15090	13610	8767	12090	4629	11760	25330	15240	12050	12380	37160	19130	58540	27170	41060	17440	115000	56720	8360	34250	12040	12600	15420	78790	31200	19440	6130	5251	89400	15150	36250	5391	8113	9782	24670	5834	6392	13100	21590	14990	23450	10790	32060	7670	6847	3861	19410	12380	13900	45160	14940	48160	17710	22370	14980	6496	11010	20990	11860	10570	51050	18360	5376	19850	27190	8186	12670	28190	35850	13310	49470	16170	8065	38670	340	17780	7632	14980	11780	25940	25220	25210	9123	22800	18930	43950	19500	10360	16070	24860	32920	8653	19010	5127	34880	9713	10920	7656	37130	13180	8858	13990	11460	3299	3939	41940	51090	10980	7778	11290	40010	9904	11850	76000	658	28670	21410	27960	11470	11170	7968	11910	12480	30220	5642	8866	13180	8916	41430	10120	8802	11430	14800	11850	13710	23410	27690	22080	36590	11560	14900	27610	15430	10880	10010	8628	39340	28950	34100	10480	8569	41570	8994	24470	17940	30390	22030	33480	10600	8894	9291	20680	15060	10890	6639	15790	10700	24250	13460	12450	10150	3928	42460	31520	10560	8634	12980	10350	48610	39510	35590	38510	29820	14600	12460	10290	13270	8480	13710	12380	3231	12130	15110	8505	20380	8637	12220	23640	50510	38170	9704	15090	41360	10660	15450	38030	10660	9451	17510	10900	18130	13750	9810	22140

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-23 to 2021-09-29

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-09-22	17368	15793	5463	10612	14133	8562	15592	12808	5634	27284	14243	16399	13771	19485	6434	30429	45051	35941	7952	24177	15149	14534	17535	21986	44119	31375	156499	13073	28231	19861	8418	9742	43531	7746	44673	12155	78092	15824	10781	40865	10054	17930	29813	58714	10126	36657	11246	13079	12873	15707	28158	20368	27253	11149	23456	11962	15045	38542	13587	17706	11555	15209	28602	3849	22304	19866	8763	15045	39345	38968	10328	9573	8196	14724	51371	5627	19233	708	9610	6924	9766	42403	5493	71177	41880	5406	12842	46427	15581	14172	14927	7815	9563	31902	5797	24534	43583	25179	11190	41554	10462	18338	45505	13498	6045	10421	13025	8959	14950	12579	9354	8575	12078	35769	14784	15812	9983	11917	4998	12844	39422	17649	8803	13458	12138	15385	9494	9231	13833	32858	16104	11475	5977	9569	27104	14920	88207	12468	7297	14605	9887	32739	12638	7714	32900	18345	8177	22016	9964	30705	11635	15563	30253	8133	15116	9692	11866	35899	13661	12733	10088	12550	38865	12138	10456	35671	14764	13343	8454	11744	4338	11408	24872	14923	11305	12012	36321	18768	57172	26551	40129	16985	112408	55391	8167	33649	11631	12271	14943	77106	30476	19063	5956	5111	87938	14702	35638	5091	7757	9328	24209	5703	6158	12664	20906	14459	22908	10077	31356	7486	6625	3648	18359	12009	13521	44244	14508	47423	17028	22073	14348	6308	10699	20496	11528	10342	48617	17684	5196	19305	26423	7963	12140	27318	34819	12976	48613	15698	7830	37968	305	17084	7198	14694	11261	25205	24834	24571	8585	22346	18419	43209	18993	9901	15690	23995	31527	8296	18599	4981	34294	9506	10739	7524	36078	12523	8662	13635	11235	3175	3806	41019	50063	10621	7300	11018	39100	9653	11549	74245	633	27571	21012	27308	11007	10452	7774	11506	12130	29823	5416	8578	12833	8598	39968	9790	8550	11082	14443	11411	13360	22818	27024	21589	35992	11305	14512	27015	14563	10497	9726	8055	38320	28269	33175	10174	8409	40629	8774	24019	17649	28854	21355	32612	10276	8788	8894	19962	14718	10556	6512	15571	10455	23797	13122	12007	9738	3721	41823	30775	10218	8418	12371	10011	47403	38561	35141	37883	29171	14190	12176	10053	12917	8245	13369	12100	3106	11794	14742	8321	19017	8290	11802	23137	49511	36852	9413	14622	40424	10460	14961	37144	10444	9224	17021	10616	17678	13316	9497	21738
2021-09-23	17500	15930	5493	10700	14190	8608	15670	12890	5677	27440	14290	16470	13810	19580	6464	30480	45180	36150	7994	24240	15220	14610	17580	22060	44300	31430	156900	13160	28280	19960	8459	9779	43620	7767	44790	12200	78330	15870	10840	40930	10080	18010	29900	58820	10160	36740	11290	13110	12930	15750	28230	20510	27390	11190	23500	12030	15080	38710	13660	17850	11580	15300	28720	3878	22410	19930	8777	15110	39570	39150	10370	9604	8242	14780	51610	5664	19320	713	9700	6960	9840	42610	5516	71440	42070	5429	12890	46540	15660	14230	14960	7861	9620	32030	5830	24620	43760	25330	11220	41700	10520	18460	45620	13610	6083	10470	13100	9002	15010	12640	9394	8615	12140	35920	14840	15910	10000	11980	5025	12910	39510	17680	8844	13510	12180	15490	9524	9293	13910	33110	16190	11500	6001	9623	27220	14980	88610	12490	7334	14640	9930	32800	12690	7774	32950	18410	8223	22060	10030	30770	11660	15650	30330	8172	15160	9706	11920	35960	13780	12780	10150	12620	38970	12210	10500	35770	14850	13380	8497	11800	4370	11470	24920	14960	11430	12060	36420	18820	57360	26630	40190	17070	112700	55570	8186	33720	11710	12310	15060	77310	30570	19110	5978	5131	88140	14770	35720	5136	7805	9373	24270	5723	6192	12700	21000	14530	22980	10140	31460	7511	6655	3680	18460	12070	13570	44390	14570	47500	17110	22160	14420	6342	10750	20570	11570	10400	48940	17810	5219	19370	26520	7997	12220	27450	34980	13020	48730	15780	7861	38070	308	17170	7239	14730	11340	25300	24940	24670	8658	22420	18480	43290	19050	9960	15750	24140	31700	8346	18670	5002	34360	9535	10770	7540	36250	12620	8685	13700	11270	3190	3831	41130	50200	10680	7352	11060	39240	9699	11600	74490	637	27750	21060	27400	11060	10550	7804	11560	12190	29870	5455	8625	12880	8644	40180	9830	8591	11120	14490	11480	13410	22880	27110	21650	36060	11340	14580	27120	14690	10560	9763	8128	38480	28350	33290	10240	8429	40760	8808	24090	17670	29050	21410	32760	10320	8826	8933	20070	14760	10600	6527	15590	10490	23850	13170	12070	9780	3750	41880	30890	10280	8445	12450	10060	47580	38680	35200	37980	29260	14250	12210	10090	12970	8277	13410	12140	3123	11890	14790	8356	19140	8328	11870	23180	49650	37020	9454	14690	40540	10490	15020	37260	10470	9251	17080	10660	17730	13390	9537	21800
2021-09-24	17640	16110	5512	10770	14230	8659	15750	12960	5712	27600	14330	16520	13840	19650	6491	30540	45310	36310	8023	24280	15270	14670	17620	22110	44470	31480	157300	13230	28320	20060	8513	9811	43720	7788	44920	12230	78530	15910	10880	40990	10110	18100	29970	58920	10200	36840	11330	13140	12960	15780	28290	20690	27500	11230	23540	12100	15110	38930	13710	18010	11600	15380	28810	3920	22510	19970	8795	15160	39740	39320	10410	9635	8276	14830	51850	5691	19390	717	9800	6994	9900	42810	5535	71680	42240	5445	12920	46650	15730	14270	15000	7893	9690	32150	5853	24700	43920	25460	11250	41850	10610	18600	45710	13720	6102	10510	13180	9039	15050	12700	9439	8640	12210	36070	14900	16010	10030	12030	5046	12950	39590	17720	8875	13560	12230	15600	9552	9333	13990	33470	16300	11530	6023	9667	27300	15010	88990	12510	7364	14680	9970	32880	12730	7849	33000	18460	8251	22120	10080	30840	11690	15720	30400	8201	15210	9723	11960	36020	13880	12810	10190	12690	39080	12290	10530	35870	14920	13420	8543	11840	4409	11510	24990	15010	11510	12110	36510	18870	57550	26710	40280	17120	113100	55740	8205	33800	11760	12360	15150	77530	30660	19160	6001	5149	88300	14830	35790	5162	7850	9440	24330	5737	6223	12720	21100	14590	23050	10220	31550	7531	6686	3710	18600	12120	13610	44530	14620	47600	17210	22250	14530	6363	10790	20640	11610	10450	49180	17910	5243	19430	26620	8027	12290	27550	35130	13060	48840	15850	7893	38160	315	17230	7292	14760	11420	25390	25030	24740	8730	22490	18540	43380	19120	10000	15800	24270	31900	8389	18720	5017	34450	9562	10790	7557	36390	12690	8709	13740	11300	3207	3851	41210	50330	10730	7415	11080	39350	9724	11640	74710	644	27910	21110	27480	11090	10640	7829	11620	12240	29900	5480	8665	12930	8689	40370	9870	8625	11160	14530	11530	13460	22960	27200	21720	36140	11370	14620	27200	14790	10610	9803	8200	38610	28440	33390	10280	8449	40890	8836	24140	17710	29260	21490	32870	10370	8851	8958	20160	14800	10640	6543	15610	10520	23910	13210	12120	9840	3779	41950	30970	10320	8473	12570	10100	47730	38810	35260	38060	29340	14300	12240	10110	13010	8302	13460	12170	3139	11980	14840	8377	19300	8369	11920	23240	49750	37170	9487	14750	40660	10510	15070	37350	10510	9276	17150	10700	17780	13450	9574	21850
2021-09-25	17740	16250	5534	10840	14280	8707	15820	13030	5746	27750	14370	16560	13870	19720	6517	30590	45410	36480	8056	24330	15330	14740	17670	22170	44620	31520	157600	13300	28370	20150	8567	9840	43800	7806	45020	12260	78740	15940	10930	41050	10130	18180	30030	59020	10240	36930	11360	13180	13010	15810	28340	20850	27600	11260	23580	12160	15140	39110	13760	18140	11620	15460	28910	3960	22610	20010	8812	15200	39920	39480	10450	9663	8313	14880	52040	5719	19460	722	9890	7027	9950	43010	5553	71900	42400	5463	12950	46760	15790	14320	15030	7925	9760	32270	5878	24780	44050	25580	11280	41970	10690	18710	45780	13820	6126	10550	13240	9073	15100	12750	9478	8667	12260	36210	14940	16100	10040	12080	5069	13000	39670	17760	8909	13610	12270	15700	9576	9379	14070	33750	16410	11560	6043	9708	27380	15050	89300	12530	7394	14720	10020	32940	12760	7923	33050	18510	8283	22180	10130	30900	11720	15800	30450	8235	15260	9731	12000	36070	13960	12850	10240	12760	39170	12350	10570	35960	14980	13450	8584	11880	4446	11550	25050	15050	11600	12140	36590	18920	57740	26790	40340	17170	113300	55880	8222	33870	11820	12400	15230	77710	30740	19200	6022	5162	88440	14880	35860	5189	7896	9496	24390	5751	6255	12750	21200	14640	23120	10290	31640	7552	6717	3738	18740	12160	13640	44660	14680	47680	17310	22340	14620	6385	10830	20700	11650	10500	49430	18000	5260	19480	26710	8057	12360	27640	35260	13090	48930	15920	7924	38250	320	17300	7345	14790	11490	25450	25120	24810	8799	22560	18600	43460	19190	10040	15850	24370	32090	8432	18760	5032	34500	9586	10820	7568	36520	12760	8734	13800	11330	3223	3869	41300	50410	10780	7468	11100	39460	9754	11690	74920	649	28070	21160	27550	11120	10720	7858	11670	12290	29940	5507	8708	12970	8732	40560	9910	8662	11210	14570	11580	13490	23030	27280	21770	36200	11390	14670	27290	14890	10670	9841	8257	38750	28520	33480	10330	8468	41010	8861	24200	17740	29450	21570	32970	10410	8878	8984	20260	14840	10690	6558	15630	10560	23950	13260	12160	9900	3807	42000	31040	10360	8500	12680	10150	47840	38920	35310	38140	29410	14360	12280	10140	13050	8334	13510	12200	3154	12070	14870	8402	19430	8406	11960	23290	49820	37320	9521	14810	40760	10530	15130	37440	10530	9298	17220	10730	17830	13510	9611	21900
2021-09-26	17830	16390	5556	10920	14340	8751	15900	13090	5782	27890	14410	16610	13900	19800	6544	30640	45530	36650	8092	24370	15390	14810	17730	22230	44760	31560	158000	13370	28400	20240	8620	9872	43880	7827	45130	12290	78960	15980	10980	41110	10150	18270	30100	59130	10280	37020	11390	13210	13060	15840	28400	21030	27710	11300	23610	12220	15170	39320	13820	18280	11640	15540	29000	3999	22700	20060	8831	15240	40120	39640	10490	9689	8351	14930	52240	5746	19530	727	9990	7060	10010	43210	5571	72150	42560	5481	12980	46860	15860	14360	15060	7962	9820	32380	5906	24860	44220	25700	11310	42120	10750	18820	45870	13900	6154	10580	13310	9108	15150	12810	9517	8705	12300	36340	14990	16200	10060	12130	5092	13060	39750	17790	8939	13660	12310	15800	9600	9428	14140	34030	16520	11580	6062	9750	27470	15090	89610	12550	7423	14750	10060	33000	12810	7992	33090	18560	8317	22230	10180	30960	11740	15880	30510	8273	15300	9739	12030	36110	14070	12880	10290	12830	39270	12440	10600	36050	15060	13480	8623	11920	4482	11590	25100	15090	11690	12180	36660	18970	57950	26860	40410	17220	113600	56020	8239	33940	11880	12440	15310	77910	30820	19270	6043	5179	88580	14940	35930	5219	7943	9552	24450	5765	6288	12780	21290	14700	23180	10350	31730	7573	6746	3765	18880	12210	13680	44790	14730	47750	17410	22420	14700	6408	10870	20760	11690	10560	49670	18100	5274	19540	26810	8089	12430	27750	35410	13130	49020	15990	7954	38330	325	17370	7399	14820	11560	25510	25200	24880	8863	22640	18660	43540	19250	10090	15910	24490	32300	8477	18820	5048	34560	9611	10840	7580	36660	12840	8759	13850	11370	3238	3888	41370	50490	10830	7516	11120	39590	9787	11730	75140	653	28230	21200	27640	11160	10800	7887	11720	12340	29980	5535	8752	13030	8776	40730	9950	8702	11250	14620	11630	13530	23090	27370	21830	36250	11420	14720	27380	15000	10730	9879	8306	38900	28600	33570	10380	8489	41140	8896	24260	17770	29660	21640	33090	10450	8906	9011	20350	14880	10730	6576	15650	10590	23990	13310	12210	9950	3835	42050	31110	10420	8530	12790	10190	47980	39030	35360	38220	29470	14410	12310	10170	13080	8368	13560	12240	3170	12150	14910	8430	19550	8442	12020	23340	49900	37480	9554	14870	40880	10550	15180	37520	10560	9325	17290	10770	17870	13580	9648	21960
2021-09-27	17990	16630	5580	11000	14400	8807	15970	13160	5826	28020	14470	16670	13940	19890	6571	30700	45670	36840	8127	24430	15450	14870	17770	22290	44960	31610	158400	13440	28470	20330	8673	9912	44000	7856	45240	12330	79200	16020	11050	41190	10180	18360	30170	59200	10310	37120	11430	13240	13100	15890	28480	21220	27820	11340	23650	12290	15210	39540	13880	18430	11660	15630	29100	4038	22800	20110	8845	15290	40360	39840	10520	9715	8391	14990	52520	5779	19610	732	10090	7093	10090	43420	5588	72480	42750	5501	13030	46960	15930	14410	15100	8006	9890	32510	5936	24940	44430	25840	11330	42270	10830	18980	45980	14030	6184	10630	13390	9149	15200	12870	9560	8750	12370	36460	15040	16300	10080	12180	5115	13110	39820	17820	8975	13710	12340	15920	9629	9496	14210	34450	16630	11620	6083	9796	27570	15130	90050	12570	7451	14790	10110	33060	12850	8068	33140	18600	8352	22280	10230	31020	11770	15960	30570	8309	15340	9754	12070	36170	14200	12920	10340	12910	39370	12530	10640	36170	15150	13510	8668	11970	4518	11630	25160	15130	11790	12250	36760	19020	58170	26930	40510	17290	114100	56250	8256	34020	11940	12480	15390	78160	30900	19340	6065	5198	88770	15000	36010	5249	7989	9609	24510	5782	6321	12800	21390	14760	23260	10440	31820	7596	6780	3795	19030	12270	13740	44930	14780	47850	17510	22500	14820	6430	10920	20820	11730	10610	49970	18210	5302	19590	26920	8122	12510	27860	35570	13170	49120	16070	7984	38430	329	17450	7454	14850	11650	25600	25300	24950	8940	22710	18720	43620	19310	10140	15990	24630	32520	8521	18880	5064	34650	9639	10870	7597	36840	12920	8782	13900	11410	3254	3908	41480	50620	10890	7575	11150	39740	9821	11780	75390	657	28400	21250	27730	11190	10900	7918	11780	12400	30030	5568	8798	13090	8823	40970	9990	8745	11290	14670	11680	13580	23160	27460	21890	36320	11440	14770	27490	15110	10810	9917	8385	39070	28680	33680	10430	8509	41270	8928	24330	17800	29870	21720	33240	10500	8935	9039	20460	14920	10770	6590	15660	10630	24050	13360	12260	10010	3863	42100	31210	10470	8564	12890	10230	48160	39170	35420	38310	29570	14470	12340	10200	13130	8406	13610	12270	3186	12240	14950	8460	19740	8483	12080	23410	50030	37630	9590	14930	41040	10570	15240	37630	10590	9358	17360	10820	17920	13650	9685	22010
2021-09-28	18160	16870	5604	11080	14450	8856	16040	13220	5868	28150	14520	16730	13980	19980	6598	30750	45780	37030	8166	24480	15510	14940	17810	22360	45180	31650	158800	13510	28520	20430	8725	9948	44100	7879	45350	12360	79420	16060	11100	41250	10200	18450	30250	59270	10350	37210	11470	13270	13160	15930	28560	21390	27930	11380	23690	12360	15250	39760	13940	18560	11680	15720	29200	4076	22900	20150	8860	15330	40580	40010	10560	9740	8431	15040	52800	5808	19690	737	10190	7125	10160	43640	5606	72740	42920	5520	13070	47070	16000	14460	15140	8049	9960	32630	5964	25030	44600	25990	11360	42420	10900	19110	46070	14160	6216	10670	13460	9192	15250	12930	9604	8791	12440	36590	15100	16390	10100	12230	5140	13170	39900	17870	9011	13760	12380	16030	9659	9545	14280	34830	16740	11650	6104	9843	27660	15180	90440	12590	7481	14820	10150	33120	12900	8139	33180	18650	8389	22330	10280	31080	11790	16040	30630	8349	15390	9769	12110	36220	14310	12960	10390	12990	39480	12620	10670	36270	15220	13550	8713	12020	4555	11680	25210	15170	11900	12300	36850	19070	58380	27000	40590	17350	114500	56440	8272	34100	12000	12520	15490	78390	30970	19380	6086	5215	88950	15070	36080	5280	8036	9667	24580	5798	6356	12830	21490	14820	23330	10540	31920	7618	6810	3824	19170	12320	13790	45070	14840	47930	17610	22580	14960	6454	10970	20880	11760	10670	50230	18320	5329	19640	27030	8154	12580	27960	35730	13200	49230	16150	8014	38530	333	17520	7510	14890	11740	25670	25390	25020	9008	22780	18770	43700	19360	10180	16060	24760	32740	8567	18940	5080	34730	9665	10900	7613	37000	12980	8808	13960	11450	3270	3928	41590	50720	10940	7639	11170	39880	9857	11830	75620	662	28580	21290	27820	11220	11020	7948	11840	12460	30070	5601	8845	13130	8868	41150	10040	8788	11330	14710	11740	13620	23220	27560	21950	36380	11470	14830	27580	15230	10880	9954	8462	39220	28760	33780	10490	8526	41400	8961	24380	17830	30080	21790	33370	10550	8965	9068	20560	14960	10820	6601	15680	10660	24120	13420	12310	10060	3891	42140	31290	10530	8592	13010	10270	48290	39300	35490	38390	29660	14530	12370	10230	13170	8443	13660	12290	3202	12330	14980	8490	19940	8516	12130	23480	50140	37790	9629	15000	41180	10590	15280	37720	10610	9386	17430	10860	17960	13710	9723	22060
2021-09-29	18310	17070	5628	11170	14500	8906	16120	13280	5910	28270	14560	16770	14020	20060	6626	30800	45900	37180	8205	24530	15560	15010	17850	22420	45390	31690	159200	13580	28580	20520	8778	9978	44200	7901	45460	12390	79640	16090	11150	41310	10230	18530	30300	59330	10390	37300	11500	13310	13200	15970	28620	21550	28040	11420	23720	12430	15280	39960	14000	18700	11700	15820	29300	4114	22990	20200	8874	15360	40770	40190	10600	9765	8472	15090	53080	5839	19760	742	10290	7158	10220	43850	5623	73020	43080	5540	13100	47170	16070	14500	15170	8084	10020	32740	5993	25110	44740	26120	11390	42570	10980	19230	46160	14280	6248	10710	13530	9231	15300	12980	9647	8829	12510	36710	15150	16490	10120	12290	5164	13230	39980	17900	9040	13800	12420	16140	9688	9595	14350	35140	16850	11680	6122	9889	27760	15220	90800	12610	7514	14860	10200	33170	12940	8211	33220	18690	8426	22380	10330	31130	11820	16120	30670	8391	15430	9785	12140	36260	14410	13000	10430	13070	39580	12710	10700	36370	15310	13590	8759	12050	4591	11720	25260	15210	11980	12340	36930	19120	58580	27070	40660	17410	114800	56630	8292	34160	12060	12560	15590	78610	31060	19420	6107	5230	89120	15130	36160	5311	8084	9723	24640	5813	6390	12860	21590	14870	23400	10620	32010	7641	6835	3854	19320	12370	13830	45200	14890	48000	17710	22650	15070	6477	11020	20940	11800	10720	50460	18420	5351	19690	27140	8187	12660	28070	35880	13240	49330	16210	8045	38620	338	17570	7566	14920	11820	25740	25490	25100	9074	22860	18830	43770	19420	10230	16110	24900	32950	8612	18990	5097	34800	9692	10920	7623	37130	13060	8833	14020	11480	3285	3947	41670	50800	10990	7689	11200	40000	9894	11880	75850	666	28750	21340	27910	11250	11120	7976	11890	12510	30120	5628	8892	13170	8914	41340	10080	8829	11380	14750	11780	13660	23280	27650	22000	36440	11490	14870	27670	15340	10940	9992	8536	39380	28840	33860	10540	8540	41530	8992	24440	17860	30260	21860	33470	10590	8996	9097	20660	15000	10860	6616	15690	10700	24160	13470	12350	10120	3920	42190	31360	10580	8618	13130	10310	48400	39420	35550	38480	29740	14590	12400	10260	13200	8479	13710	12320	3219	12430	15020	8521	20100	8552	12180	23540	50220	37950	9661	15060	41300	10610	15340	37820	10640	9413	17490	10890	18000	13780	9760	22120

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-09-22 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-09-22