COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-09-27

	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	2021-08-26	2021-08-30	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-08-23	2021-07-11	--	2021-08-22	2021-08-25	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	2021-09-14	--	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-12	2021-07-07	12-29	--	12-27	2021-07-08	2021-09-13	2021-07-07	2021-05-10	2021-07-06	2021-01-01	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-15	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-28	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-09-15	--	2021-07-28	2021-07-08	2021-09-15	2021-06-20	2021-08-23	2021-07-07	2021-08-29	2021-07-07	2021-08-10	2021-07-07	2021-08-26	2021-08-30	2021-07-06	2021-08-10	2021-08-24	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-09-13	2021-08-22	2021-08-24	2021-07-07	2021-07-27	2021-09-14	2021-07-06	2021-09-16	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-02	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-08	--	2021-07-06	2021-01-02	2021-09-14	2021-08-13	2021-07-07	2021-08-10	2021-08-03	2021-07-07	2021-08-18	2021-06-21	2021-07-08	2021-08-29	--	2021-08-10	2021-08-18	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-06-13	2021-07-06	2021-08-22	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-09-16	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-06	2021-08-10	2021-08-25	2021-07-08	2021-08-17	2021-08-17	2021-08-24	2021-09-13	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-07-04	2021-07-06	2021-08-23	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-09-14	2021-07-07	2021-08-23	2021-09-14	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-09	2021-07-06	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-08-16	2021-08-15	2021-07-08	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-04	2021-08-23	2021-07-07	2021-09-16	2021-07-06	2021-07-10	2021-07-07	2021-06-23	2021-08-22	2021-07-08	--	2021-08-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-10	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	12-27	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-01-03	2021-07-03	2021-07-08	2021-09-13	2021-07-21	2021-08-30	12-26	2021-08-22	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-10	2021-07-10	2021-09-13	2021-07-07	12-08	2021-07-08	2021-08-09	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-08-11	2021-08-10	2021-07-07	2021-08-25	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-09-15	2021-08-23	2021-09-14	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-03	2021-07-07	2021-07-30	2021-09-14	2021-08-17	2021-08-26	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-03	2021-07-08	2021-09-15	2021-08-22	--	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-04	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-26	2021-07-07	2021-09-16	2021-08-28	2021-07-07	2021-08-29	2021-06-22	2021-08-18	2021-07-07	2021-06-22	2021-08-05	2021-07-07	2021-01-01	2021-09-14	2021-07-06	2021-08-24	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-09-14	2021-07-07	2021-08-23	2021-09-14	2021-09-14	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-04	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-22	2021-08-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	12-23	2021-08-09	2021-06-28	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	07-21	--	2021-08-11	2021-07-06	2021-08-09	2021-08-22	2021-07-07	2021-08-04	--	2021-07-07	2021-08-09	--	--	2021-07-06	2021-08-22	2021-07-21	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-06-27	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	--	2021-09-15	2021-07-07	2021-08-25	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-05	--	2021-08-20	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-09-14	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-06-22	2021-07-08	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-08-19	2021-08-11	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-08-16	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-09-15	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-09	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-09-14	2021-07-07	2021-08-23	2021-08-09	2021-08-25	2021-07-07	--	2021-08-21	2021-08-09	2021-08-23	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-09	2021-08-23	2021-06-29	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-09-14	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	2021-06-30
Peak daily increment	172	216	51	115	105	88	99		97	195	127	93	63	100	57	93	260	252		139	152	144	210	103	379	176	1249		157	159	75	61	208	42	484	107	478	103	55	176	68	95	218	621	60	258	94	72	97	74	161	215		72	159	77	60	230	115	187	101	102	227	46	127	170	65	88	269	243	82	73	69	70	570	68	142	13	106	114	75	708	41	607	376	53	101	229	122	140	92		86	246	51	202	400	184	47	269	140	184	189	129		135	186	62	122	88	112	65	157	295	73	116	61	90	29	82	145	105	58	110	128	183	66	58	171	408	127	67	56	82	274	123	934	95	58	63	113	163	69	98	229	82	60	156		152	61		143	65	146	54	69	151		82	73	201	197	91	84	130	101	71	136	56		87	189	84		71	247	93	271	311	301	117	707	284	51	213	95	99	118	727	114	120	41	47	442	96	169	41	71	105	124	72	37	101	119	114	274	113	196	49	59	35	193	94	116	384	105	155	163	142	161	84	94	256	78	75	624		35	203	228	77	96	126	322	87	264	118	36	255	8	131	81	56	113	145	343	203	86	104	83	120	297	77	114	289	314	52	140	67	213	75	69	49	207		47	116	70	20	30	253	255	94	83	123	195	65	96	482	24		66	277	92	119	49	72		345	86			68	468	58	68	77	92	106	75	303	200	152	243	70	131	141		76	56	90	243	339	240		69	428	57	145	101	264	151	219	83	60	143	137	116	92	44	92	78	100	105	131	46	61	226	184	59	64	151	79	352	191	157	313	195	111	73	70	84	56	102	97	70	156	94		207	69	72	138	380	351	60	83	243	59	92	185	99	63	79	76	117	120	74	138
Days since peak	32	28	81	83	83	35	78		36	33	82	83	83	82	83	81	81	13		83	82	83	82	83	77	82	272		274	81	14	82	140	83	269	82	82	82	43	82	82	30	82	82	83	83	82	82	84	82	83	12		61	81	12	99	35	82	29	82	48	82	32	28	83	48	34	82	82	83	49	82	14	36	34	82	62	13	83	11	49	82	87	82	82	82	82	82	84	81		83	268	13	45	82	48	55	82	40	98	81	29		48	40	82	82	82	106	83	36	83	82	11	82	82	50	82	80	82	84	83	48	33	81	41	41	34	14	82	83	83	85	83	35	82	81	81	82	82	82	13	82	35	13	82		80	83		82	82	84	42	43	81		82	85	35	82	11	83	79	82	96	36	81		50	82	79		82	82	81	82	274	82	81	82	267	86	81	14	68	28	275	36	82	82	82	82	48	79	14	82	293	81	49	81	82	47	48	82	33	82	82	12	35	13	81	83	86	82	59	13	41	32	49	82	86	81	12	36		83	82	85	83	82	81	83	63	82	11	30	82	29	97	40	82	97	53	82	269	13	83	34	81	82	13	82	35	13	13	81	83	84	82	85	81	81		82	82	82	36	50	82	83	83	278	49	91	83	81	81	433		47	83	49	36	82	54		82	49			83	36	68	81	83	82	82	81	92	82	82	82	82	82	82		12	82	33	82	83	84		38	84	82	82	82	13	82	82	97	81	49	82	83	82	39	47	82	83	82	82	42	49	82	84	81	82	12	82	83	82	80	83	82	81	82	82	82	13	82	35	49	33	82		37	49	35	82	82	81	80	35	90	82	82	82	83	82	13	81	82	83	81	89
Last total	17799	16423	5649	11083	14643	8769	16034	13280	5798	27874	14561	16747	14027	20130	6630	30698	45781	37083	8270	24512	15598	14986	18119	22483	45003	31806	158552	13523	28455	20194	8814	9992	44001	7937	45297	12429	79561	16227	11224	41261	10172	18508	30235	59625	10397	37217	11531	13274	13224	15857	28481	21479	28037	11387	23801	12312	15197	39997	13955	18547	11686	15669	29301	4070	22742	20269	9031	15411	40678	39915	10610	9767	8486	15040	52286	5750	19787	750	10027	7134	10114	43972	5699	72699	42896	5570	13093	47052	16058	14444	15169	8199	9997	32623	6052	24896	44689	26148	11367	42437	10842	18783	46177	13882	6337	10747	13297	9224	15293	13022	9551	8860	12301	36694	15056	16439	10128	12335	5111	13299	39982	17846	9039	13775	12393	15867	9703	9562	14146	33968	16667	11667	6158	9809	27675	15241	89619	12634	7519	14753	10303	33180	12981	8250	33236	18648	8478	22329	10357	31091	11803	16226	30711	8574	15271	9815	12106	36362	14587	12975	10420	12829	39452	12480	10718	36267	15391	13545	8655	12198	4607	11849	25137	15193	12000	12404	36845	19196	58611	26910	40527	17456	114472	56144	8296	34021	12077	12473	15339	78110	30906	19400	6053	5258	88733	15048	36094	5236	8158	9663	24644	5823	6463	12953	21429	14831	23216	10313	31932	7623	6921	3787	19292	12375	13855	44971	14922	47875	17824	22421	14771	6557	10976	20883	11832	10662	49627	18514	5312	19774	26997	8169	12583	28204	35745	13243	49176	16205	7978	38478	315	17491	7588	14853	11603	25806	25441	25096	9001	22685	18771	43668	19276	10251	16086	24446	33002	8503	19015	5117	34643	9708	10872	7663	36915	13097	8795	13965	11495	3281	3918	41579	50890	10976	7443	11308	39907	9956	11905	75587	643	28698	21359	27997	11425	10894	7937	11876	12550	30340	5596	8890	13300	8907	40814	10136	8807	11325	14694	11804	13680	23156	27657	21891	36375	11589	14957	27487	15215	10821	9916	8326	39398	28726	33881	10621	8639	41336	8963	24408	17771	30188	22184	33338	10551	9003	9191	20593	15069	10922	6668	15697	10715	24057	13517	12268	10231	3888	42203	31567	10624	8619	13068	10285	48546	39309	35550	38468	29738	14688	12394	10300	13230	8535	13722	12417	3262	12060	14990	8597	19655	8549	12250	23472	50298	38222	9692	14985	41023	10629	15356	37853	10603	9432	17400	10986	17972	13665	9791	22070
Last daily increment	80	143	32	117	125	39	126	124	27	161	85	78	54	176	44	64	138	215	80	66	102	104	42	106	253	75	321	111	51	58	28	55	107	22	120	61	284	98	100	105	33	38	90	101	71	122	46	55	76	40	74	59	159	47	56	54	33	39	75	38	28	125	149	0	85	105	30	89	328	180	48	41	75	98	181	32	94	11	27	71	61	414	30	299	148	29	61	130	120	64	46	78	30	156	46	101	224	226	33	179	97	94	180	77	45	92	67	53	93	96	48	78	37	176	60	122	33	101	25	109	128	40	52	72	70	126	40	73	79	278	41	54	27	39	113	66	311	5	49	33	86	109	86	26	75	80	71	62	72	54	27	123	103	122	23	27	46	127	176	55	93	57	145	77	66	139	133	63	58	97	27	112	50	47	148	102	129	111	292	91	91	110	479	138	33	53	73	38	110	208	84	91	17	27	194	74	120	32	98	8	110	32	70	62	129	97	60	55	124	31	8	35	55	77	85	133	96	104	26	98	91	55	62	77	81	63	220	176	27	61	122	31	81	131	216	68	133	84	40	103	0	65	1	37	65	85	134	106	17	67	63	98	70	61	87	95	54	46	101	43	72	49	31	32	185	77	34	85	73	27	27	124	130	64	44	72	198	66	77	250	1	218	90	141	99	92	26	96	84	65	36	55	94	82	174	82	46	51	60	96	64	83	142	90	77	78	110	85	110	50	44	73	271	103	135	62	33	157	51	85	22	34	51	155	47	56	69	110	86	83	23	35	59	52	78	55	32	45	75	201	100	50	25	48	245	132	76	119	128	67	51	66	66	73	81	32	41	43	44	62	137	77	108	59	165	239	71	81	105	45	74	144	38	42	10	73	69	62	58	76
Last week	530	738	223	582	557	257	542	565	201	754	370	424	294	752	224	285	814	1358	359	375	522	526	647	536	1128	466	2303	537	262	405	383	281	572	216	708	331	1709	471	474	422	143	558	517	980	303	606	331	209	397	188	380	1044	905	268	375	390	176	1403	447	797	153	558	799	205	522	472	280	431	1537	1114	328	219	329	369	1158	167	613	46	421	241	393	1803	229	1741	1167	187	312	715	569	311	259	428	444	838	287	474	1294	1084	202	1001	464	569	747	512	340	373	324	305	402	491	234	321	280	1069	303	698	171	480	140	500	629	214	275	344	299	583	242	389	382	1372	548	216	203	301	683	372	1805	192	268	165	437	472	394	503	368	376	366	335	473	433	182	769	522	481	198	131	298	490	1044	289	399	333	665	411	318	678	700	232	241	512	261	517	282	275	805	425	615	493	1641	437	432	539	2399	851	147	376	494	238	508	1196	511	373	111	161	935	405	508	194	452	318	480	139	329	336	622	461	371	305	675	156	275	176	884	432	371	829	467	468	764	434	515	291	321	467	343	375	1262	951	133	535	661	242	513	976	1090	308	638	574	175	600	7	478	370	192	424	656	720	620	402	379	404	492	318	409	461	575	1391	260	477	159	392	231	157	155	1036	616	152	401	303	122	142	654	946	423	190	354	962	362	397	1571	11	1312	388	806	487	532	182	423	480	590	213	348	519	357	1039	372	293	282	278	455	354	384	714	354	408	324	498	555	758	362	214	307	1260	519	790	499	252	820	223	454	141	1276	920	863	299	251	347	733	386	410	174	136	283	292	447	305	456	193	398	943	448	213	663	326	1343	803	442	656	645	538	236	297	375	322	359	351	168	337	305	322	781	291	489	330	926	1575	327	447	716	197	435	792	180	244	373	436	321	414	326	404
Previous peak date	07-21	07-21	12-27	12-26	12-27	07-21	12-21	12-26	07-21	12-21	12-21	12-27	12-07	12-21	12-23	12-28	12-23	2021-07-06	12-27	12-23	2021-01-02	2021-01-11	11-02	12-21	10-07	12-22	11-02	12-27	10-13	10-13	12-07	2021-01-07	10-15	11-13	11-02	12-21	10-24	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-14	12-06	12-28	11-02	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-30	12-30	10-27	12-07	10-27	12-21	12-27	12-26	12-08	12-06	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-22	12-21	--	11-02	12-22	12-28	12-25	12-22	12-21	2021-01-03	12-21	12-21	2021-07-07	07-21	07-21	12-26	--	12-29	12-26	12-27	12-21	12-24	11-02	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-28	10-27	2021-02-25	10-01	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	07-21	07-21	12-27	07-21	12-24	12-29	07-21	12-24	12-21	11-09	07-21	12-26	07-21	10-31	12-27	12-30	12-28	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-25	12-21	12-22	2021-01-06	--	07-21	12-23	12-27	12-22	07-21	12-25	12-25	12-25	10-17	10-29	12-26	07-21	12-21	12-28	12-21	12-21	12-27	12-21	2021-01-05	12-22	12-27	2021-07-07	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-23	12-13	12-27	12-13	12-27	12-22	12-29	--	12-28	12-30	12-22	12-26	12-21	2021-01-01	07-21	12-28	--	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-25	11-01	12-22	10-27	09-29	12-29	12-30	11-02	11-02	12-21	12-27	2021-07-07	11-02	12-21	09-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-31	11-02	2021-01-02	12-22	2021-07-05	12-30	--	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-31	07-21	12-22	12-27	12-06	07-21	12-07	12-28	12-29	11-02	11-03	12-27	12-06	12-27	07-21	12-08	10-14	10-26	12-26	12-21	07-21	11-05	12-21	12-30	11-04	12-21	12-26	12-27	12-21	2021-01-01	11-02	2021-07-08	11-02	10-22	--	12-27	12-28	12-26	07-21	2021-01-06	11-02	11-02	12-06	11-02	12-29	12-21	12-31	2021-01-05	12-22	07-21	12-06	12-27	12-21	12-27	10-19	12-13	10-11	12-13	10-18	2021-07-07	12-28	10-13	12-25	2021-01-26	2021-01-02	11-02	12-29	10-31	07-21	12-21	12-28	12-29	12-22	11-02	--	12-30	12-25	12-25	12-21	07-21	12-22	12-21	2021-07-06	12-26	--	2021-01-04	12-21	11-09	07-21	12-21	12-22	12-20	2021-01-03	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	12-25	12-25	2021-07-07	12-22	07-21	12-28	12-27	11-01	12-27	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-02	12-25	10-18	2021-01-02	12-26	12-30	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-26	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-22	12-27	12-06	--	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-26	12-08	12-21	11-01	12-27	12-27	12-15	12-25	11-02	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-26	12-20	--	07-21	11-02	12-07	07-21	12-22	12-28	12-22	10-16	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	12-31	12-28	12-25	12-31	12-21	12-30	12-26	11-02
Previous peak daily increment	605	360	61	88	97	285	134	73	115	260	170	110	176	178	78	477	589	276	63	326	128	109	277	233	262	426	1200	75	166	98	95	58	234	50	355	142	434	228	107	524	155	233	307	1167	107	508	94	186	62	122	160	211	139	99	256	87	148	354	172	194	175	107	303		292	268	52	197	249	283	59	91	71	121	1221	82	243		35	53	94	288	34	551	288	38	181	598	151	69	189	65	58	164	27	206	248	187	118	322	216	697	536	296	60	52	370	76	160	106	184	51	231	206	102	163	146	107	56	146	593	273	97	74		457	90	74	94	661	150	125	54	42	127	82	1697	92	56	180	92	451	119	34	377	218	84	201	59	401	172	119	338	103	106	136	120	476	111	159	52		442	57	115	452	143	83	239	134		237	275	148	77	100	283	198	349	153	428	107	1522	469	104	457	80	229	102	480	274	200	90	36	2166	92	419	40	46		298	37	62	153	186	105	213	296	361	79	62	65	191	105	63	2512	85	723	190	212	186	23	53	137	105	50	969	104	58	123	106	41	55	277	158	121	1362	158	68	257		125	44	108	227	154	135	347	43	156	174	623	105	81	176	445	286	52	188	39	194	138	65	96	198	90	85	67	174	36	25	417	448	80	147	82	407	65	131	557		216	244	167	97	218	110	102	74	181		42	90	73	839	94	79	108	80	66	102	115	248	293	451	131	156	222	94	77	112	144	189	138	197	73	42	206	105	331	189	270	181	172	56	109	46	140	349	90	44	138	123	360	138	51	101		559	151	90	110	120	84	245	329	449	390	227	260	138	117	160	65	154	87		296	165	43	369	67	115	217	319	264	83	148	431	106	138	377	106	115	176	95	173	71	69	573
Low between peaks	0	-1	-3	-2	-7	0	3		-26	5	-11	2	-7	-17	-8	3	-2	114		-30	-13	2	-14	-12	9	3	307		55	-9	0	-14	17	2	31	-8	31	-4	-5	-39	-11	1	-1	-18	-8	-8	-10	-16	-1	3	3	0		2	-17	-6	-64	5	-9	2	-2	3	-1		-7	-11	-11	-3	-9	-14	-3	-6	0	35	-11	-4	-9		1	1	2	-30	-1	-13	-19	-5	-8	-4	-11	-5	1		0	53	-3	11	1	-28	-14	-4	-48	-3	-6	-2		-7	-3	-6	-12	-2	-5	2	-1	-5	1	-17	-6	-5	0	-4	-80	-12	1	0		-4	0	0	4	-5	1	-7	-5	-8	-7	2	-7	-13	-8	-2	-8	-25	-21	1	-27	-25	27	-5		-12	-2		5	2	-1	-8	-12	-19		-1	2		-27	1	-1	12	-5	3	-2	-7		-5	-5	-5		-3	-12	-3	27	20	2	-5	40	120	1	-18	35	-9	2	58	7	-22	0	0	27	1	-45	11	-13		2	-10	-3	-10	6	2	5	-15	0	-3	0	0	1	-10	1	15	-14	4	2	8	-8	-5	-12	-3	-7	-6	-7		-6	-16	5	1	-7	-3	-7	-4	6	50	1	6		1	1	3	1	5	-74	37	0	0	-8	1	-1	-51	-13	-2	1	0	-4	0	3	0	1	-6	0		0	1	-14	-6	-8	2	-1	-4	-4	-20	-45	3	-6	23			4	-3	-10	-2	-3	-4		-23				-4	-7	-11	-5	-1	2	-5	-10	2	-2	-3	-16	-2	-6	-39		27	1	-1	-4	4	-5		-12	1	-4	-13	-40	3	-9	7	-8	-5	-6	-12	-3	-7	-4	-9	2	-6	-11	-1	1		5	0	-18	-3	1	-18	16	-9	-22	-4	-6	-4	4	-12	-13	-5	1	-7		-2	1		-2	-1	-12	7	6	-36	-9	-5	-68	0	-11	-19	-2	-6	2	1	0	-3	-6	-48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-28 to 2021-10-04

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-09-27	17799	16423	5649	11083	14643	8769	16034	13280	5798	27874	14561	16747	14027	20130	6630	30698	45781	37083	8270	24512	15598	14986	18119	22483	45003	31806	158552	13523	28455	20194	8814	9992	44001	7937	45297	12429	79561	16227	11224	41261	10172	18508	30235	59625	10397	37217	11531	13274	13224	15857	28481	21479	28037	11387	23801	12312	15197	39997	13955	18547	11686	15669	29301	4070	22742	20269	9031	15411	40678	39915	10610	9767	8486	15040	52286	5750	19787	750	10027	7134	10114	43972	5699	72699	42896	5570	13093	47052	16058	14444	15169	8199	9997	32623	6052	24896	44689	26148	11367	42437	10842	18783	46177	13882	6337	10747	13297	9224	15293	13022	9551	8860	12301	36694	15056	16439	10128	12335	5111	13299	39982	17846	9039	13775	12393	15867	9703	9562	14146	33968	16667	11667	6158	9809	27675	15241	89619	12634	7519	14753	10303	33180	12981	8250	33236	18648	8478	22329	10357	31091	11803	16226	30711	8574	15271	9815	12106	36362	14587	12975	10420	12829	39452	12480	10718	36267	15391	13545	8655	12198	4607	11849	25137	15193	12000	12404	36845	19196	58611	26910	40527	17456	114472	56144	8296	34021	12077	12473	15339	78110	30906	19400	6053	5258	88733	15048	36094	5236	8158	9663	24644	5823	6463	12953	21429	14831	23216	10313	31932	7623	6921	3787	19292	12375	13855	44971	14922	47875	17824	22421	14771	6557	10976	20883	11832	10662	49627	18514	5312	19774	26997	8169	12583	28204	35745	13243	49176	16205	7978	38478	315	17491	7588	14853	11603	25806	25441	25096	9001	22685	18771	43668	19276	10251	16086	24446	33002	8503	19015	5117	34643	9708	10872	7663	36915	13097	8795	13965	11495	3281	3918	41579	50890	10976	7443	11308	39907	9956	11905	75587	643	28698	21359	27997	11425	10894	7937	11876	12550	30340	5596	8890	13300	8907	40814	10136	8807	11325	14694	11804	13680	23156	27657	21891	36375	11589	14957	27487	15215	10821	9916	8326	39398	28726	33881	10621	8639	41336	8963	24408	17771	30188	22184	33338	10551	9003	9191	20593	15069	10922	6668	15697	10715	24057	13517	12268	10231	3888	42203	31567	10624	8619	13068	10285	48546	39309	35550	38468	29738	14688	12394	10300	13230	8535	13722	12417	3262	12060	14990	8597	19655	8549	12250	23472	50298	38222	9692	14985	41023	10629	15356	37853	10603	9432	17400	10986	17972	13665	9791	22070
2021-09-28	17970	16570	5684	11170	14740	8813	16120	13370	5866	28000	14590	16810	14040	20240	6663	30720	45910	37300	8342	24570	15670	15080	18120	22560	45280	31880	159000	13610	28540	20270	8854	10030	44130	7940	45410	12470	79700	16290	11290	41360	10200	18600	30290	59630	10440	37310	11580	13310	13280	15920	28570	21680	28240	11430	23850	12400	15240	40210	14030	18820	11710	15760	29420	4106	22940	20340	9061	15480	40920	40110	10660	9810	8538	15110	52630	5778	19840	756	10200	7186	10200	44230	5726	72970	43080	5595	13140	47160	16140	14490	15210	8265	10060	32760	6097	24970	44840	26210	11400	42580	10910	18880	46290	14070	6390	10800	13440	9268	15360	13090	9593	8909	12420	36860	15130	16550	10150	12410	5135	13370	40080	17880	9087	13830	12440	16000	9737	9620	14220	34200	16760	11690	6183	9860	27780	15300	90200	12630	7552	14780	10360	33260	13040	8285	33290	18720	8536	22380	10460	31180	11830	16410	30800	8574	15310	9832	12150	36440	14790	13020	10480	12940	39560	12560	10760	36360	15520	13580	8738	12270	4648	11920	25190	15250	12180	12420	36980	19260	58850	26980	40590	17540	114800	56450	8317	34090	12150	12510	15390	78340	30990	19430	6073	5280	88860	15120	36170	5266	8158	9720	24720	5845	6508	13000	21530	14900	23280	10360	32030	7649	6956	3815	19440	12440	13920	45110	14990	47950	17890	22520	14870	6596	11030	20950	11880	10720	50230	18690	5351	19840	27060	8205	12670	28390	35900	13290	49280	16290	8009	38590	315	17560	7642	14890	11730	25880	25550	25190	9009	22800	18830	43750	19330	10320	16160	24630	33220	8544	19090	5139	34720	9719	10900	7681	37080	13240	8822	14030	11540	3299	3939	41680	51050	11040	7466	11350	40010	10000	11960	75830	646	28920	21400	28110	11430	11030	7968	11940	12640	30410	5631	8943	13440	8959	41100	10190	8853	11370	14740	11870	13720	23220	27710	21950	36440	11630	15030	27600	15350	10890	9950	8371	39590	28820	34010	10670	8669	41450	8999	24480	17820	30500	22180	33440	10600	9040	9235	20700	15130	10980	6689	15720	10760	24100	13580	12300	10300	3918	42270	31700	10690	8655	13200	10340	48740	39460	35620	38570	29790	14730	12430	10340	13280	8582	13780	12460	3284	12210	15040	8659	19770	8608	12320	23560	50430	38430	9741	15060	41190	10660	15420	37990	10630	9443	17460	11050	18010	13730	9840	22130
2021-09-29	18090	16890	5721	11220	14820	8873	16180	13430	5920	28130	14620	16860	14080	20250	6677	30750	46050	37510	8391	24620	15700	15170	18130	22590	45550	31950	159500	13670	28600	20430	8890	10050	44260	7960	45530	12480	79870	16290	11360	41430	10220	18700	30320	59680	10470	37410	11610	13340	13310	15970	28640	21880	28460	11460	23890	12470	15280	40440	14080	19040	11750	15850	29500	4169	23090	20380	9061	15520	41020	40320	10680	9850	8549	15150	52900	5814	19840	757	10320	7229	10270	44320	5738	73240	43260	5599	13160	47230	16180	14540	15240	8314	10140	32870	6140	25060	45020	26330	11430	42740	10960	18990	46430	14240	6432	10830	13510	9296	15390	13130	9646	8919	12500	37020	15180	16630	10180	12420	5162	13370	40140	17930	9138	13840	12480	16110	9760	9656	14320	34480	16880	11720	6196	9910	27850	15340	90680	12650	7562	14840	10370	33330	13060	8296	33350	18810	8583	22440	10570	31260	11860	16560	30890	8613	15390	9856	12200	36500	14990	13050	10510	13020	39650	12670	10780	36450	15630	13620	8794	12340	4691	11920	25270	15300	12390	12450	37110	19270	58940	27070	40650	17580	115100	56710	8330	34210	12170	12570	15440	78540	31120	19480	6105	5286	89010	15190	36240	5283	8192	9810	24760	5862	6508	13010	21620	14970	23380	10420	32120	7672	6973	3849	19630	12460	13950	45260	15030	48020	17930	22640	15010	6625	11080	21020	11900	10750	50640	18880	5380	19880	27140	8234	12750	28570	36050	13320	49410	16340	8048	38700	328	17600	7710	14940	11820	25980	25640	25260	9035	22870	18890	43870	19420	10390	16180	24770	33440	8563	19120	5146	34780	9746	10930	7686	37210	13440	8848	14070	11550	3311	3952	41800	51210	11070	7489	11390	40130	10010	11980	76070	651	29130	21450	28130	11460	11160	7996	11970	12730	30460	5660	8975	13570	8982	41320	10210	8881	11410	14790	11900	13770	23260	27790	22020	36530	11630	15030	27690	15490	10950	10000	8409	39630	28930	34140	10740	8670	41590	9017	24520	17850	30820	22190	33550	10650	9051	9247	20790	15150	10990	6703	15760	10780	24140	13590	12350	10360	3945	42380	31730	10690	8678	13320	10380	48830	39590	35670	38630	29870	14730	12460	10350	13310	8582	13810	12480	3287	12320	15090	8726	19910	8653	12350	23640	50560	38480	9761	15110	41340	10680	15460	38120	10660	9472	17560	11110	18040	13800	9860	22170
2021-09-30	18190	17130	5756	11290	14900	8925	16250	13500	5971	28260	14660	16920	14120	20300	6700	30780	46190	37720	8438	24690	15750	15260	18220	22630	45780	32020	160000	13730	28650	20560	8928	10080	44340	7981	45640	12510	80100	16310	11430	41500	10250	18790	30360	59840	10510	37500	11640	13360	13340	16000	28710	22080	28670	11500	23930	12550	15300	40670	14130	19240	11770	15940	29600	4219	23210	20420	9068	15580	41180	40510	10710	9880	8577	15200	53130	5846	19860	760	10400	7275	10350	44490	5757	73530	43460	5613	13180	47320	16240	14590	15270	8370	10220	32990	6183	25140	45190	26480	11460	42900	11020	19100	46570	14350	6479	10860	13590	9330	15430	13180	9693	8946	12570	37170	15230	16720	10200	12460	5188	13390	40220	17980	9186	13870	12510	16210	9787	9701	14410	34730	16990	11760	6215	9960	27940	15390	91070	12680	7582	14890	10410	33410	13100	8317	33410	18880	8633	22500	10680	31330	11890	16730	30970	8675	15450	9878	12250	36570	15190	13080	10550	13070	39750	12760	10800	36550	15740	13670	8839	12410	4733	11940	25340	15350	12590	12500	37210	19300	59090	27150	40710	17630	115400	56890	8346	34310	12220	12620	15490	78730	31230	19520	6131	5299	89170	15270	36310	5305	8252	9880	24810	5881	6528	13030	21720	15040	23470	10480	32220	7697	7000	3878	19810	12510	14000	45400	15080	48100	17980	22750	15120	6657	11120	21090	11940	10800	50990	19060	5401	19940	27220	8266	12840	28720	36210	13350	49530	16410	8083	38820	336	17650	7773	14980	11900	26100	25730	25340	9058	22960	18950	43980	19490	10460	16230	24900	33660	8592	19170	5159	34840	9777	10960	7697	37350	13610	8874	14120	11570	3325	3968	41910	51370	11110	7511	11420	40270	10030	12010	76300	655	29340	21500	28190	11520	11270	8025	12020	12820	30520	5692	9015	13690	9018	41540	10240	8916	11440	14840	11950	13830	23310	27860	22080	36610	11650	15060	27790	15630	11020	10040	8449	39740	29020	34270	10790	8684	41730	9043	24570	17880	31070	22300	33670	10700	9072	9273	20890	15180	11010	6719	15790	10810	24170	13630	12390	10420	3972	42460	31810	10730	8706	13450	10430	48960	39720	35730	38710	29960	14750	12500	10370	13340	8601	13850	12510	3299	12400	15140	8789	20040	8702	12390	23700	50710	38610	9793	15170	41470	10700	15500	38250	10690	9503	17650	11170	18060	13870	9890	22220
2021-10-01	18300	17320	5791	11360	14990	8972	16320	13580	5997	28380	14700	16980	14160	20360	6725	30800	46320	37920	8492	24740	15800	15340	18300	22690	45990	32090	160300	13800	28690	20660	8968	10120	44430	8013	45720	12540	80350	16350	11500	41570	10270	18890	30400	59980	10550	37590	11680	13400	13390	16030	28770	22270	28870	11540	23970	12610	15330	40900	14200	19390	11800	16030	29700	4262	23300	20480	9087	15630	41360	40680	10750	9920	8612	15260	53320	5875	19900	764	10470	7319	10410	44680	5778	73770	43630	5631	13220	47410	16310	14640	15310	8429	10290	33110	6226	25210	45360	26610	11490	43040	11080	19190	46680	14440	6526	10900	13660	9367	15480	13230	9736	8980	12630	37320	15280	16810	10220	12510	5212	13430	40300	18020	9233	13910	12550	16280	9816	9750	14490	34960	17100	11780	6236	10000	28030	15440	91340	12720	7606	14920	10450	33480	13150	8346	33460	18960	8684	22550	10780	31410	11920	16820	31060	8740	15490	9893	12290	36630	15370	13120	10600	13110	39850	12840	10840	36620	15850	13700	8876	12490	4775	11980	25400	15380	12780	12550	37320	19340	59280	27220	40770	17700	115800	57040	8363	34390	12270	12660	15540	78910	31320	19560	6153	5315	89340	15320	36380	5330	8313	9940	24870	5900	6557	13060	21810	15110	23540	10520	32310	7721	7032	3906	19970	12560	14050	45540	15130	48180	18040	22850	15220	6690	11170	21160	11970	10840	51280	19230	5421	19990	27300	8299	12920	28870	36340	13390	49640	16480	8114	38910	342	17710	7834	15020	11980	26190	25820	25420	9088	23020	19010	44070	19550	10530	16280	24980	33880	8625	19230	5175	34910	9801	10980	7711	37490	13770	8899	14170	11600	3340	3985	42010	51510	11160	7530	11460	40370	10060	12060	76530	658	29560	21540	28270	11580	11360	8054	12070	12900	30580	5724	9060	13790	9058	41720	10270	8955	11480	14880	12000	13880	23360	27960	22140	36680	11670	15100	27880	15770	11080	10080	8487	39870	29120	34390	10860	8705	41840	9071	24630	17920	31290	22430	33800	10750	9098	9305	20990	15220	11050	6737	15820	10840	24210	13670	12420	10480	4000	42540	31900	10770	8736	13560	10470	49120	39850	35790	38800	30040	14790	12530	10390	13380	8630	13900	12550	3315	12480	15190	8848	20150	8751	12440	23750	50810	38760	9830	15240	41580	10730	15560	38350	10720	9524	17720	11230	18090	13940	9920	22280
2021-10-02	18390	17500	5825	11440	15070	9017	16390	13660	6024	28500	14740	17040	14180	20440	6752	30830	46450	38130	8523	24780	15860	15430	18390	22750	46180	32150	160700	13880	28730	20750	9008	10150	44510	8034	45800	12580	80590	16390	11550	41640	10300	18980	30450	60120	10590	37680	11730	13430	13430	16050	28820	22390	29060	11570	24020	12650	15350	41120	14260	19510	11830	16110	29800	4304	23370	20540	9108	15690	41550	40820	10790	9960	8650	15320	53500	5903	19940	769	10540	7364	10450	44880	5801	73990	43770	5650	13250	47500	16370	14680	15340	8490	10360	33230	6268	25280	45510	26730	11520	43160	11140	19280	46790	14510	6574	10950	13710	9405	15540	13290	9779	9016	12670	37480	15320	16910	10240	12560	5236	13480	40380	18050	9279	13950	12590	16350	9846	9800	14560	35180	17200	11810	6257	10050	28120	15500	91550	12760	7632	14960	10490	33550	13200	8377	33510	19030	8735	22600	10880	31480	11940	16930	31140	8808	15540	9910	12340	36700	15530	13160	10640	13150	39950	12920	10870	36710	15940	13720	8914	12550	4816	12020	25450	15410	12960	12590	37400	19390	59470	27290	40820	17770	116100	57170	8380	34470	12330	12700	15590	79090	31410	19600	6175	5332	89480	15360	36450	5356	8366	10010	24930	5919	6588	13090	21900	15180	23610	10570	32400	7745	7065	3933	20130	12610	14100	45680	15190	48250	18110	22950	15320	6723	11220	21230	12010	10890	51540	19410	5437	20050	27380	8332	13000	29000	36450	13430	49750	16560	8145	38970	347	17770	7894	15060	12030	26270	25920	25500	9105	23070	19070	44150	19610	10600	16340	25040	34100	8658	19290	5192	34970	9826	11010	7726	37640	13930	8924	14220	11630	3355	4003	42100	51630	11210	7550	11500	40480	10090	12100	76760	661	29770	21600	28350	11610	11410	8084	12120	12970	30650	5757	9106	13880	9101	41880	10310	8996	11520	14920	12060	13920	23410	28040	22190	36740	11700	15150	27950	15900	11150	10110	8525	40010	29210	34510	10950	8727	41950	9100	24680	17940	31460	22580	33900	10800	9126	9339	21090	15270	11090	6756	15850	10880	24240	13720	12460	10550	4028	42610	32000	10810	8767	13660	10520	49280	39950	35850	38890	30130	14820	12560	10420	13420	8661	13940	12590	3332	12540	15230	8908	20270	8800	12500	23790	50920	38920	9869	15300	41650	10760	15610	38440	10750	9548	17790	11300	18120	14000	9960	22330
2021-10-03	18430	17660	5859	11520	15160	9060	16460	13730	6043	28610	14800	17100	14220	20530	6781	30850	46570	38330	8558	24840	15930	15510	18510	22820	46360	32220	161000	13960	28760	20840	9049	10190	44570	8064	45860	12620	80810	16440	11630	41700	10320	19070	30500	60270	10630	37770	11770	13460	13490	16080	28870	22530	29260	11610	24060	12700	15370	41350	14320	19620	11850	16200	29910	4342	23440	20600	9134	15740	41760	40960	10830	9990	8693	15370	53630	5930	19990	774	10600	7409	10500	45110	5825	74240	43920	5672	13290	47600	16450	14730	15380	8552	10430	33350	6311	25360	45700	26860	11550	43290	11200	19360	46910	14560	6622	10990	13740	9445	15590	13350	9819	9057	12700	37630	15360	17010	10270	12620	5259	13540	40460	18090	9326	13990	12630	16420	9877	9854	14630	35390	17290	11840	6280	10100	28220	15550	91710	12780	7660	14990	10550	33620	13250	8411	33570	19100	8788	22660	10980	31530	11970	17050	31220	8881	15580	9932	12380	36770	15710	13200	10700	13170	40050	13000	10910	36820	16060	13750	8947	12620	4858	12070	25500	15450	13150	12650	37480	19450	59680	27360	40880	17840	116400	57260	8398	34540	12390	12740	15640	79240	31500	19670	6195	5351	89580	15400	36520	5383	8429	10070	24990	5938	6625	13130	22000	15240	23680	10610	32500	7770	7100	3959	20290	12660	14150	45810	15250	48290	18170	23040	15420	6758	11270	21300	12060	10950	51760	19580	5453	20120	27460	8367	13080	29140	36610	13470	49860	16640	8175	39040	351	17830	7952	15100	12070	26370	26020	25580	9107	23120	19120	44240	19670	10660	16400	25100	34320	8695	19350	5211	35020	9862	11040	7742	37790	14080	8949	14280	11670	3371	4022	42160	51740	11270	7569	11540	40610	10130	12150	77000	664	29990	21650	28450	11680	11480	8113	12180	13040	30720	5790	9155	13980	9147	42000	10360	9038	11570	14970	12110	13970	23460	28150	22240	36810	11740	15210	28030	16030	11210	10150	8564	40170	29300	34630	11040	8753	42030	9131	24750	17970	31620	22760	34010	10850	9157	9377	21200	15320	11140	6775	15870	10920	24280	13770	12500	10620	4056	42670	32110	10870	8800	13760	10570	49450	40050	35910	38980	30210	14870	12590	10460	13470	8698	14000	12630	3351	12560	15280	8967	20380	8850	12560	23840	51060	39110	9912	15360	41760	10780	15670	38540	10770	9592	17860	11360	18150	14070	10000	22390
2021-10-04	18520	17820	5893	11600	15240	9103	16540	13810	6081	28730	14870	17160	14270	20620	6811	30880	46700	38540	8617	24900	16000	15600	18550	22890	46580	32280	161300	14030	28810	20920	9090	10220	44680	8089	45970	12660	81080	16490	11720	41790	10340	19160	30550	60370	10670	37860	11820	13490	13540	16120	28950	22640	29450	11650	24110	12770	15410	41570	14390	19710	11880	16280	30030	4379	23540	20670	9161	15800	41980	41150	10870	10030	8737	15430	53820	5957	20040	780	10650	7455	10570	45340	5850	74520	44090	5695	13330	47700	16520	14780	15420	8617	10490	33470	6354	25430	45920	27060	11580	43460	11260	19450	47050	14650	6671	11040	13810	9486	15650	13420	9859	9099	12750	37780	15420	17110	10300	12680	5283	13600	40540	18120	9372	14030	12670	16550	9909	9908	14700	35600	17390	11880	6303	10140	28320	15610	92070	12790	7690	15020	10600	33690	13310	8446	33620	19160	8841	22710	11080	31580	11990	17120	31300	8955	15620	9957	12430	36830	15880	13240	10750	13250	40150	13070	10950	36950	16180	13800	9004	12700	4899	12130	25550	15490	13340	12740	37600	19500	59900	27430	40940	17920	116800	57430	8416	34600	12460	12780	15680	79450	31580	19740	6215	5371	89780	15480	36590	5410	8504	10120	25060	5958	6664	13160	22090	15310	23740	10650	32590	7795	7136	3985	20440	12720	14210	45950	15310	48380	18240	23130	15510	6794	11320	21360	12100	11000	51970	19760	5479	20180	27570	8402	13160	29280	36800	13510	49960	16720	8204	39140	355	17900	8010	15130	12150	26460	26120	25670	9149	23190	19180	44320	19720	10730	16460	25210	34540	8732	19420	5230	35090	9902	11060	7759	37940	14220	8975	14340	11700	3388	4040	42280	51870	11330	7588	11590	40790	10180	12210	77230	666	30210	21730	28550	11750	11580	8144	12240	13120	30790	5823	9205	14070	9194	42180	10400	9081	11610	15010	12170	14030	23520	28280	22300	36870	11770	15270	28130	16160	11280	10180	8603	40330	29380	34750	11100	8780	42180	9163	24810	17990	31750	22830	34160	10900	9189	9417	21300	15370	11190	6795	15900	10960	24310	13830	12530	10690	4084	42740	32230	10930	8832	13800	10620	49630	40190	35970	39070	30330	14910	12630	10490	13510	8738	14050	12670	3372	12620	15330	9026	20480	8900	12630	23900	51220	39300	9956	15430	41880	10810	15720	38670	10800	9633	17930	11420	18180	14130	10040	22450

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-28 to 2021-10-04

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-09-27	17799	16423	5649	11083	14643	8769	16034	13280	5798	27874	14561	16747	14027	20130	6630	30698	45781	37083	8270	24512	15598	14986	18119	22483	45003	31806	158552	13523	28455	20194	8814	9992	44001	7937	45297	12429	79561	16227	11224	41261	10172	18508	30235	59625	10397	37217	11531	13274	13224	15857	28481	21479	28037	11387	23801	12312	15197	39997	13955	18547	11686	15669	29301	4070	22742	20269	9031	15411	40678	39915	10610	9767	8486	15040	52286	5750	19787	750	10027	7134	10114	43972	5699	72699	42896	5570	13093	47052	16058	14444	15169	8199	9997	32623	6052	24896	44689	26148	11367	42437	10842	18783	46177	13882	6337	10747	13297	9224	15293	13022	9551	8860	12301	36694	15056	16439	10128	12335	5111	13299	39982	17846	9039	13775	12393	15867	9703	9562	14146	33968	16667	11667	6158	9809	27675	15241	89619	12634	7519	14753	10303	33180	12981	8250	33236	18648	8478	22329	10357	31091	11803	16226	30711	8574	15271	9815	12106	36362	14587	12975	10420	12829	39452	12480	10718	36267	15391	13545	8655	12198	4607	11849	25137	15193	12000	12404	36845	19196	58611	26910	40527	17456	114472	56144	8296	34021	12077	12473	15339	78110	30906	19400	6053	5258	88733	15048	36094	5236	8158	9663	24644	5823	6463	12953	21429	14831	23216	10313	31932	7623	6921	3787	19292	12375	13855	44971	14922	47875	17824	22421	14771	6557	10976	20883	11832	10662	49627	18514	5312	19774	26997	8169	12583	28204	35745	13243	49176	16205	7978	38478	315	17491	7588	14853	11603	25806	25441	25096	9001	22685	18771	43668	19276	10251	16086	24446	33002	8503	19015	5117	34643	9708	10872	7663	36915	13097	8795	13965	11495	3281	3918	41579	50890	10976	7443	11308	39907	9956	11905	75587	643	28698	21359	27997	11425	10894	7937	11876	12550	30340	5596	8890	13300	8907	40814	10136	8807	11325	14694	11804	13680	23156	27657	21891	36375	11589	14957	27487	15215	10821	9916	8326	39398	28726	33881	10621	8639	41336	8963	24408	17771	30188	22184	33338	10551	9003	9191	20593	15069	10922	6668	15697	10715	24057	13517	12268	10231	3888	42203	31567	10624	8619	13068	10285	48546	39309	35550	38468	29738	14688	12394	10300	13230	8535	13722	12417	3262	12060	14990	8597	19655	8549	12250	23472	50298	38222	9692	14985	41023	10629	15356	37853	10603	9432	17400	10986	17972	13665	9791	22070
2021-09-28	17920	16600	5686	11180	14730	8811	16120	13370	5841	27990	14630	16820	14070	20260	6663	30750	45920	37300	8327	24580	15670	15080	18180	22570	45210	31870	158900	13610	28510	20270	8866	10040	44100	7964	45420	12480	79790	16290	11300	41340	10200	18590	30320	59730	10450	37320	11600	13310	13290	15900	28550	21650	28180	11430	23850	12380	15230	40220	14030	18670	11710	15760	29420	4096	22850	20340	9061	15470	40940	40090	10650	9796	8540	15110	52530	5779	19880	757	10120	7179	10180	44270	5720	72990	43080	5595	13150	47160	16150	14500	15210	8261	10060	32760	6096	24980	44880	26340	11400	42600	10910	18880	46310	14000	6390	10810	13370	9277	15360	13100	9595	8922	12350	36850	15120	16560	10150	12410	5135	13380	40080	17890	9089	13830	12440	15980	9738	9624	14210	34210	16750	11700	6180	9860	27790	15300	89990	12640	7557	14790	10360	33260	13040	8319	33290	18710	8537	22380	10430	31160	11830	16350	30800	8639	15310	9835	12150	36450	14760	13020	10480	12900	39570	12550	10770	36390	15510	13590	8706	12280	4651	11920	25190	15240	12140	12470	36950	19270	58880	26990	40600	17560	114900	56320	8317	34090	12150	12510	15430	78310	30990	19470	6073	5284	88890	15130	36180	5264	8216	9720	24720	5841	6510	13000	21540	14890	23280	10370	32040	7649	6962	3817	19420	12440	13930	45120	14990	47960	17920	22500	14860	6596	11030	20950	11890	10720	49930	18670	5347	19830	27110	8202	12670	28350	35940	13290	49310	16290	8010	38580	317	17560	7631	14890	11690	25910	25550	25190	9053	22760	18830	43760	19350	10310	16170	24570	33240	8543	19100	5142	34710	9741	10900	7688	37100	13210	8825	14030	11550	3302	3942	41690	51050	11040	7478	11360	40070	10000	11970	75840	645	28900	21420	28120	11480	11000	7967	11950	12630	30400	5630	8944	13380	8964	40980	10200	8853	11370	14740	11880	13740	23210	27780	21960	36450	11640	15030	27580	15340	10890	9960	8378	39600	28810	34010	10700	8666	41460	9006	24480	17790	30370	22260	33490	10600	9042	9242	20700	15130	10980	6687	15720	10760	24120	13580	12320	10290	3922	42280	31710	10700	8658	13160	10340	48770	39460	35610	38580	29840	14770	12430	10340	13290	8582	13790	12450	3287	12150	15030	8652	19790	8592	12340	23540	50460	38420	9746	15060	41170	10660	15430	38010	10630	9467	17450	11050	18020	13740	9840	22130
2021-09-29	18040	16800	5723	11260	14810	8855	16190	13450	5884	28100	14670	16890	14110	20330	6688	30790	46050	37520	8367	24630	15730	15160	18220	22630	45390	31910	159300	13690	28560	20370	8934	10070	44220	7989	45540	12500	80020	16340	11360	41400	10220	18700	30370	59800	10480	37400	11640	13350	13340	15940	28620	21850	28310	11470	23900	12460	15260	40480	14090	18830	11730	15840	29520	4139	22950	20390	9072	15510	41150	40270	10690	9820	8577	15170	52750	5807	19960	762	10230	7211	10250	44460	5735	73260	43260	5614	13190	47250	16220	14550	15250	8308	10140	32880	6139	25050	45060	26490	11420	42750	10970	18970	46410	14130	6434	10850	13440	9316	15410	13150	9632	8958	12410	36980	15180	16660	10180	12470	5159	13430	40150	17920	9131	13870	12480	16080	9760	9689	14280	34450	16870	11730	6196	9910	27900	15350	90350	12660	7583	14820	10400	33330	13090	8402	33340	18750	8584	22440	10500	31220	11850	16450	30870	8688	15350	9846	12190	36500	14920	13060	10530	12970	39680	12650	10810	36490	15620	13620	8748	12340	4697	11950	25240	15290	12250	12520	37020	19310	59080	27060	40670	17620	115300	56510	8329	34170	12220	12550	15520	78520	31080	19520	6094	5300	89030	15200	36260	5291	8259	9780	24780	5855	6538	13020	21630	14950	23350	10430	32140	7673	6998	3849	19590	12490	13980	45270	15050	48030	18050	22560	14950	6622	11090	21020	11920	10770	50160	18790	5372	19880	27200	8237	12750	28510	36100	13330	49420	16370	8041	38670	323	17630	7697	14930	11780	25990	25640	25270	9130	22840	18890	43860	19410	10380	16230	24690	33500	8586	19160	5156	34770	9766	10930	7701	37270	13300	8849	14080	11580	3317	3961	41790	51200	11090	7517	11390	40210	10030	12010	76080	647	29090	21470	28210	11520	11100	7998	12000	12700	30450	5663	8993	13460	9004	41160	10240	8896	11410	14780	11930	13780	23260	27870	22010	36520	11650	15080	27670	15480	10960	9990	8426	39740	28880	34130	10770	8678	41590	9039	24540	17810	30660	22300	33610	10650	9069	9276	20810	15180	11020	6700	15740	10800	24170	13640	12370	10360	3950	42340	31810	10750	8687	13290	10390	48930	39590	35670	38670	29920	14830	12460	10370	13330	8610	13840	12480	3303	12230	15080	8689	19920	8626	12390	23600	50570	38550	9784	15120	41300	10690	15480	38130	10660	9493	17530	11110	18060	13810	9870	22190
2021-09-30	18140	16960	5759	11350	14880	8896	16260	13530	5928	28200	14710	16940	14150	20410	6715	30840	46170	37730	8409	24690	15790	15250	18310	22700	45550	31960	159700	13770	28620	20460	9000	10110	44310	8014	45650	12540	80260	16380	11430	41460	10250	18800	30430	59940	10520	37490	11680	13380	13400	15970	28680	22050	28440	11510	23940	12530	15290	40740	14160	18990	11750	15920	29620	4180	23050	20450	9093	15550	41370	40460	10730	9845	8617	15220	52940	5835	20050	767	10320	7245	10330	44670	5754	73540	43460	5636	13230	47340	16290	14600	15290	8357	10210	33000	6179	25120	45230	26650	11450	42910	11040	19060	46510	14230	6481	10890	13500	9358	15460	13210	9673	8997	12460	37110	15230	16750	10200	12530	5183	13480	40230	17960	9171	13910	12520	16170	9786	9741	14340	34670	16980	11760	6216	9960	28000	15390	90670	12680	7611	14850	10450	33390	13130	8488	33390	18800	8633	22490	10560	31290	11880	16570	30930	8746	15390	9858	12230	36560	15090	13100	10580	13020	39780	12730	10840	36590	15720	13650	8783	12400	4736	12000	25300	15330	12370	12580	37090	19360	59290	27120	40740	17680	115600	56670	8344	34240	12290	12590	15610	78700	31160	19570	6114	5321	89170	15270	36330	5319	8310	9840	24840	5870	6572	13050	21720	15010	23430	10480	32230	7697	7043	3876	19740	12540	14020	45410	15100	48100	18170	22630	15030	6651	11140	21090	11960	10830	50370	18930	5391	19930	27290	8272	12830	28660	36270	13360	49540	16460	8070	38770	327	17690	7763	14950	11860	26090	25740	25350	9198	22920	18940	43950	19470	10450	16300	24800	33760	8630	19220	5173	34830	9792	10960	7719	37420	13410	8872	14140	11620	3332	3984	41900	51320	11150	7551	11430	40350	10070	12070	76320	649	29290	21510	28300	11570	11200	8030	12060	12760	30500	5697	9044	13540	9048	41340	10280	8941	11450	14830	11980	13830	23300	27960	22060	36580	11680	15130	27780	15620	11030	10030	8475	39900	28960	34230	10830	8717	41710	9069	24590	17840	30910	22370	33740	10700	9098	9309	20910	15220	11060	6721	15750	10840	24210	13690	12410	10430	3976	42380	31910	10810	8718	13420	10430	49090	39720	35730	38770	30010	14900	12490	10400	13370	8647	13890	12520	3321	12300	15120	8728	20050	8657	12460	23650	50690	38710	9819	15180	41430	10710	15530	38250	10690	9520	17610	11170	18100	13880	9910	22240
2021-10-01	18240	17110	5790	11440	14950	8937	16330	13610	5958	28290	14760	17000	14190	20510	6743	30880	46300	37940	8451	24740	15850	15330	18400	22770	45700	32000	160100	13850	28660	20540	9064	10150	44390	8045	45750	12580	80500	16420	11490	41510	10270	18890	30490	60080	10560	37580	11720	13410	13450	16000	28740	22240	28570	11550	23990	12600	15320	40990	14220	19120	11770	16000	29730	4219	23130	20500	9121	15590	41590	40630	10770	9871	8659	15270	53140	5862	20140	772	10410	7277	10390	44880	5776	73790	43640	5660	13270	47440	16360	14650	15330	8406	10290	33120	6219	25190	45390	26800	11480	43050	11100	19150	46600	14310	6529	10930	13570	9397	15520	13270	9712	9031	12510	37240	15280	16850	10210	12580	5206	13540	40310	17990	9208	13950	12550	16250	9814	9797	14400	34890	17090	11780	6241	10000	28100	15440	90980	12700	7641	14880	10500	33460	13180	8572	33440	18840	8683	22540	10610	31350	11900	16660	30980	8803	15430	9868	12270	36610	15240	13140	10640	13070	39890	12800	10870	36680	15830	13680	8819	12460	4775	12050	25350	15370	12500	12630	37160	19410	59510	27190	40800	17750	116000	56800	8358	34310	12370	12630	15690	78880	31230	19610	6133	5340	89320	15340	36400	5349	8363	9910	24910	5886	6609	13080	21820	15060	23490	10520	32330	7720	7082	3904	19890	12600	14060	45550	15160	48170	18300	22690	15120	6681	11190	21150	12000	10880	50590	19060	5409	19990	27390	8306	12910	28810	36420	13400	49630	16550	8098	38860	330	17760	7830	14980	11940	26170	25830	25430	9270	23000	19000	44040	19520	10510	16360	24900	34000	8673	19260	5190	34890	9817	10980	7729	37580	13500	8895	14190	11660	3347	4000	42000	51440	11200	7584	11470	40490	10110	12120	76540	650	29480	21550	28400	11620	11290	8060	12110	12830	30560	5732	9095	13620	9093	41520	10330	8984	11490	14870	12040	13880	23350	28060	22110	36640	11700	15190	27870	15760	11100	10070	8523	40060	29030	34330	10900	8751	41830	9097	24650	17860	31140	22460	33870	10740	9128	9343	21020	15270	11110	6742	15770	10880	24250	13750	12460	10500	4003	42430	32010	10870	8746	13540	10480	49220	39850	35790	38860	30090	14970	12520	10430	13410	8686	13940	12570	3340	12370	15150	8767	20160	8689	12510	23700	50770	38880	9852	15250	41520	10730	15590	38330	10720	9544	17680	11220	18140	13940	9950	22300
2021-10-02	18330	17250	5822	11540	15020	8973	16400	13690	5989	28380	14810	17040	14220	20580	6772	30920	46390	38150	8486	24780	15910	15410	18470	22840	45850	32040	160400	13930	28690	20620	9128	10180	44480	8069	45840	12620	80750	16450	11550	41570	10290	18990	30550	60190	10590	37660	11740	13440	13500	16020	28790	22390	28690	11590	24030	12660	15340	41170	14280	19230	11790	16080	29840	4258	23200	20540	9148	15620	41780	40780	10810	9896	8701	15320	53330	5886	20230	778	10500	7309	10440	45110	5798	74000	43800	5681	13300	47540	16430	14700	15370	8457	10350	33240	6260	25260	45520	26920	11510	43190	11150	19220	46670	14380	6577	10970	13620	9428	15570	13330	9745	9058	12550	37360	15320	16940	10220	12640	5230	13610	40400	18020	9246	13990	12590	16320	9842	9835	14450	35080	17200	11810	6263	10040	28200	15490	91230	12730	7673	14910	10550	33520	13230	8643	33490	18880	8733	22590	10660	31410	11920	16740	31040	8862	15470	9881	12300	36670	15350	13180	10690	13130	39990	12870	10900	36780	15930	13710	8851	12510	4812	12100	25400	15410	12620	12670	37230	19470	59700	27250	40860	17800	116300	56930	8374	34380	12440	12670	15760	79060	31300	19650	6152	5354	89450	15390	36460	5379	8416	9960	24970	5903	6648	13110	21910	15100	23550	10560	32430	7744	7116	3929	20030	12660	14100	45690	15220	48230	18430	22750	15190	6712	11240	21210	12030	10940	50800	19200	5423	20050	27480	8339	12980	28950	36550	13440	49720	16620	8127	38940	334	17830	7898	15000	12000	26230	25920	25500	9320	23060	19060	44120	19580	10580	16410	24980	34190	8717	19310	5209	34940	9843	11010	7744	37690	13580	8918	14250	11680	3361	4013	42080	51510	11260	7615	11500	40600	10150	12180	76760	652	29680	21590	28510	11660	11370	8092	12160	12880	30620	5766	9143	13680	9139	41670	10360	9026	11540	14910	12100	13910	23400	28140	22160	36680	11730	15250	27940	15890	11160	10100	8568	40210	29100	34420	10980	8771	41950	9124	24710	17870	31320	22560	33980	10780	9158	9370	21120	15310	11160	6757	15780	10920	24290	13800	12500	10560	4029	42460	32070	10920	8772	13660	10520	49320	39960	35850	38930	30170	15040	12550	10460	13450	8726	13990	12610	3359	12420	15180	8806	20270	8719	12550	23750	50860	39060	9890	15310	41590	10750	15640	38400	10740	9570	17750	11260	18170	14000	9990	22360
2021-10-03	18420	17370	5856	11630	15100	9012	16480	13770	6021	28460	14860	17080	14250	20670	6802	30960	46510	38360	8517	24830	15980	15500	18550	22910	45980	32080	160800	14010	28730	20700	9192	10210	44560	8092	45940	12660	80990	16490	11620	41630	10310	19080	30620	60290	10630	37750	11770	13470	13550	16060	28850	22540	28810	11630	24070	12720	15370	41400	14350	19350	11810	16160	29940	4296	23280	20590	9173	15650	41990	40950	10860	9922	8744	15380	53480	5911	20320	784	10580	7342	10500	45330	5822	74240	43960	5704	13340	47630	16500	14740	15410	8508	10420	33350	6301	25320	45660	27040	11540	43330	11210	19300	46750	14440	6626	11010	13670	9464	15620	13390	9781	9096	12580	37470	15370	17030	10240	12710	5254	13670	40480	18050	9280	14030	12630	16410	9868	9884	14510	35280	17310	11840	6284	10080	28290	15540	91440	12750	7705	14930	10610	33570	13270	8710	33540	18920	8784	22630	10720	31460	11950	16800	31100	8928	15510	9896	12340	36720	15460	13220	10750	13180	40080	12960	10940	36890	16050	13740	8888	12570	4847	12160	25440	15450	12720	12720	37290	19530	59920	27320	40910	17850	116600	57050	8388	34440	12520	12710	15840	79240	31370	19710	6171	5372	89550	15440	36530	5409	8471	10020	25040	5919	6688	13140	22010	15150	23610	10600	32530	7768	7149	3955	20180	12720	14140	45830	15280	48280	18560	22810	15270	6744	11290	21270	12070	11000	50980	19340	5437	20120	27570	8375	13060	29110	36700	13480	49800	16710	8155	39020	337	17900	7965	15030	12070	26300	26010	25570	9360	23130	19110	44190	19630	10640	16480	25060	34380	8761	19370	5228	34990	9870	11030	7758	37840	13670	8942	14300	11720	3377	4027	42170	51590	11310	7646	11540	40730	10190	12230	76970	653	29890	21630	28610	11700	11440	8123	12220	12930	30690	5801	9195	13740	9186	41800	10400	9073	11580	14950	12150	13950	23440	28230	22210	36720	11750	15310	28030	16030	11220	10140	8612	40380	29170	34510	11040	8792	42070	9159	24770	17890	31500	22670	34090	10830	9190	9397	21230	15350	11210	6775	15800	10960	24330	13850	12540	10620	4058	42500	32140	10980	8801	13790	10570	49430	40070	35900	39030	30250	15110	12580	10490	13480	8768	14050	12640	3379	12470	15210	8846	20380	8752	12610	23810	50940	39240	9923	15370	41700	10770	15690	38470	10760	9600	17820	11310	18210	14070	10030	22410
2021-10-04	18510	17540	5890	11720	15170	9055	16550	13850	6060	28550	14910	17150	14290	20780	6832	31000	46640	38590	8567	24890	16040	15580	18590	22980	46140	32120	161100	14100	28790	20780	9256	10250	44670	8117	46040	12700	81250	16540	11690	41700	10340	19180	30670	60350	10670	37840	11820	13500	13610	16110	28920	22720	28940	11670	24120	12790	15410	41660	14430	19490	11830	16250	30050	4334	23370	20650	9199	15690	42270	41130	10900	9948	8787	15450	53670	5941	20410	790	10690	7379	10580	45560	5847	74530	44160	5731	13380	47730	16580	14790	15450	8559	10500	33480	6342	25390	45870	27200	11570	43480	11270	19400	46860	14550	6676	11050	13750	9507	15680	13460	9817	9147	12630	37600	15430	17150	10260	12780	5277	13740	40560	18090	9323	14070	12670	16520	9899	9954	14570	35520	17420	11870	6306	10130	28400	15590	91810	12770	7737	14960	10660	33630	13320	8789	33590	18960	8836	22680	10780	31520	11970	16900	31150	8995	15540	9913	12370	36780	15620	13270	10800	13260	40190	13060	10970	37000	16160	13780	8934	12640	4886	12210	25490	15490	12830	12790	37360	19590	60180	27380	40980	17930	117000	57270	8405	34510	12600	12740	15910	79460	31440	19770	6189	5392	89710	15510	36600	5440	8522	10070	25100	5936	6729	13170	22110	15200	23670	10640	32630	7792	7190	3982	20330	12780	14190	45970	15340	48350	18690	22870	15360	6776	11340	21330	12110	11060	51230	19480	5462	20170	27670	8410	13140	29260	36870	13520	49910	16800	8183	39110	340	17970	8033	15060	12160	26360	26120	25640	9436	23210	19170	44270	19680	10710	16560	25180	34630	8805	19430	5247	35060	9899	11060	7775	38030	13760	8966	14360	11770	3392	4051	42280	51700	11370	7684	11570	40900	10240	12290	77220	654	30090	21670	28710	11750	11550	8156	12280	13010	30750	5836	9252	13840	9234	42020	10450	9124	11620	14990	12210	13990	23490	28340	22250	36780	11780	15370	28140	16170	11300	10170	8661	40550	29250	34600	11110	8806	42200	9196	24830	17910	31740	22760	34240	10880	9224	9425	21340	15400	11260	6795	15810	11000	24380	13910	12580	10690	4085	42530	32230	11050	8836	13900	10610	49580	40210	35970	39130	30340	15170	12600	10530	13520	8813	14110	12680	3399	12530	15250	8886	20500	8787	12690	23860	51040	39430	9962	15440	41850	10800	15750	38580	10790	9629	17890	11370	18250	14140	10070	22470

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-09-27 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-09-27