COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-10-17 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-10-17

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-10-17

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-08-312021-08-302021-07-082021-09-122021-09-262021-08-262021-07-11 --2021-08-242021-10-062021-07-072021-10-032021-09-272021-10-032021-10-052021-07-082021-07-082021-07-042021-09-302021-07-06 --2021-10-06 --2021-10-042021-07-122021-07-0712-292021-09-0912-272021-07-08 --2021-10-042021-05-102021-07-062021-01-012021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-09-222021-07-072021-07-072021-09-082021-07-072021-07-072021-10-042021-07-06 --2021-07-072021-07-052021-07-072021-07-062021-09-082021-10-042021-07-282021-07-08 --2021-06-202021-10-052021-07-072021-08-292021-07-072021-08-102021-07-072021-08-262021-08-302021-07-06 --2021-08-282021-10-042021-10-06 --2021-08-09 --2021-10-042021-08-222021-08-242021-10-052021-07-272021-09-082021-07-062021-08-302021-08-10 --2021-07-022021-07-072021-10-042021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-10-042021-07-08 --2021-09-192021-10-04 --2021-08-132021-07-07 --2021-08-032021-07-072021-08-162021-06-212021-07-082021-08-292021-10-062021-08-102021-08-18 --2021-07-072021-10-052021-06-132021-10-052021-08-222021-07-062021-07-06 --2021-07-07 --2021-10-062021-07-072021-07-092021-07-072021-07-052021-07-062021-08-102021-08-252021-07-08 --2021-08-132021-08-292021-09-082021-07-07 --2021-07-062021-07-042021-07-072021-08-23 -- --2021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-09-262021-09-062021-07-062021-09-282021-07-072021-07-072021-09-132021-07-092021-07-06 --2021-07-072021-10-062021-07-052021-08-162021-08-152021-07-082021-09-162021-07-07 --2021-08-252021-07-072021-09-082021-10-052021-07-102021-10-062021-06-232021-08-232021-10-04 --2021-10-052021-07-072021-07-102021-09-122021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-10-0612-272021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-01-032021-10-052021-07-08 --2021-07-212021-09-0112-262021-08-262021-07-072021-07-072021-10-042021-07-082021-08-102021-07-102021-09-12 --12-082021-07-08 -- --2021-07-072021-08-112021-08-102021-07-072021-08-252021-07-072021-10-06 --2021-10-052021-09-07 --2021-07-062021-07-032021-10-042021-07-302021-09-142021-08-162021-08-262021-08-092021-10-062021-07-052021-07-08 --2021-08-222021-09-192021-07-07 --2021-07-042021-10-042021-09-112021-09-232021-07-062021-10-042021-07-072021-10-042021-08-282021-07-072021-08-302021-06-22 --2021-07-072021-06-222021-10-052021-07-072021-01-01 --2021-07-062021-08-242021-07-082021-07-072021-09-132021-07-072021-08-232021-09-082021-09-122021-07-072021-07-062021-07-052021-07-072021-06-282021-07-08 --2021-09-122021-07-07 --2021-07-072021-10-04 --2021-07-072021-07-062021-07-0612-23 --2021-06-28 --2021-07-082021-07-0807-212021-10-062021-08-112021-07-06 --2021-08-182021-10-04 --2021-09-24 --2021-08-092021-09-17 --2021-10-042021-08-23 -- -- --2021-10-06 --2021-10-052021-06-272021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-09-12 --2021-07-072021-08-252021-10-042021-07-062021-10-032021-09-29 --2021-07-052021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-09-08 --2021-07-072021-06-222021-07-082021-08-092021-10-062021-10-042021-10-06 --2021-08-112021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-07 --2021-10-042021-07-072021-09-272021-09-252021-10-06 -- --2021-07-062021-07-072021-07-092021-07-062021-10-042021-09-252021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-10-042021-07-07 --2021-08-092021-08-252021-07-072021-10-052021-08-25 -- --2021-07-072021-07-07 -- --2021-08-232021-06-292021-07-07 --2021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-10-03 --2021-07-07 -- --2021-07-05
Peak daily increment 179 225 51 97 122 88 100 97 200 127 127 69 164 82 93 260 276 69 139 121 118 378 177 1250 89 157 159 78 208 42 484 107 478 103 79 175 68 105 218 619 96 258 72 97 74 161 201 180 72 159 60 435 115 190 100 102 227 47 128 170 90 368 279 73 123 567 69 153 13 105 115 72 714 606 377 49 104 230 122 90 92 82 171 202 400 47 272 137 184 189 133 71 135 183 122 114 112 103 157 296 73 61 35 82 145 105 58 110 128 185 66 171 420 125 67 82 274 123 941 63 113 163 80 93 230 114 84 157 84 152 61 143 95 146 54 69 151 159 82 203 197 87 103 130 159 71 137 185 114 189 84 135 71 246 93 317 311 301 117 705 284 54 213 99 121 727 116 120 41 43 442 96 169 39 106 124 101 119 114 274 115 197 59 51 192 116 384 122 155 131 141 164 84 111 231 78 622 167 34 228 44 91 191 322 96 264 133 37 255 8 131 57 113 210 343 207 104 85 120 297 71 114 289 287 47 140 66 213 75 69 49 113 47 69 39 253 255 94 83 195 96 482 25 223 66 277 119 62 87 86 60 85 470 92 80 303 200 152 243 69 131 141 139 56 91 244 339 206 110 428 58 145 101 266 219 83 60 143 145 117 122 92 78 100 105 131 62 226 283 79 75 352 191 158 312 208 112 73 69 84 94 102 70 158 94 113 207 138 382 85 243 59 185 99 63 78 117 138
Days since peak 47 48 101 35 21 52 98 54 11 102 14 20 14 12 101 101 105 17 103 11 13 97 102 292 38 294 101 13 160 103 289 102 102 102 25 102 102 39 102 102 13 103 102 104 102 103 39 13 81 101 119 12 102 49 102 68 102 52 48 103 50 13 11 69 13 56 54 12 82 39 103 48 68 107 102 13 102 102 102 13 101 28 13 65 102 75 102 62 118 101 49 11 68 60 102 12 126 12 56 103 103 102 11 102 100 102 104 103 68 53 101 65 49 39 102 103 105 102 55 101 102 101 21 41 103 19 102 102 34 100 103 102 11 104 62 63 101 31 102 53 102 39 12 99 11 116 55 13 12 102 99 35 102 102 101 11 294 102 101 102 287 12 101 88 46 295 52 102 102 13 101 68 99 35 313 101 102 67 68 102 53 102 11 12 40 103 106 13 79 33 62 52 69 11 104 101 56 28 102 105 13 36 24 103 13 102 13 50 102 48 117 102 117 12 102 289 103 54 101 102 34 102 55 39 35 102 103 104 102 111 101 35 102 102 13 102 103 103 298 111 101 101 453 11 67 103 60 13 23 69 30 13 55 11 12 112 102 102 102 102 102 102 35 102 53 13 103 14 18 104 102 102 102 39 102 117 101 69 11 13 11 67 102 103 102 102 13 102 20 22 11 103 102 100 103 13 22 102 103 102 13 102 69 53 102 12 53 102 102 55 110 102 102 103 102 14 102 104
Last total 19531 19120 6237 12726 16842 9682 18012 15166 6415 30941 16001 18906 15395 23401 7845 31782 48999 41249 9556 26269 18072 17040 21324 24630 49120 33444 167602 14896 29659 21995 9994 11364 46271 8700 48886 13759 86370 17945 12869 43011 10898 20353 32544 64105 11926 39510 13186 14129 14541 16620 30358 25021 31496 12196 25187 14202 16122 47333 15479 21861 12559 17545 32288 4840 24575 22750 10648 17115 47404 44648 12277 10750 10189 16995 55655 6259 22291 901 11413 8372 11320 52345 6581 78682 47325 6386 14205 49386 18052 15941 16242 9860 11621 35954 7275 26452 49251 30590 12150 46331 12021 20453 48774 15261 7658 12476 14378 10589 17179 14994 10374 10569 13294 40838 16566 19342 10982 14669 5733 15374 42363 18821 9920 15136 13626 17704 11011 11221 15699 38148 18479 12316 7150 10755 30089 16791 94424 13689 9001 15620 11577 34917 14648 9790 34593 20812 9483 23500 11623 32793 12698 19228 32685 10286 16039 10412 13642 38029 17129 14303 12072 14166 41770 14119 12453 39220 18152 14376 9192 14946 5605 14009 26333 16142 14036 14131 39298 21056 64664 28405 42185 19015 124902 59133 9016 35530 13955 13491 17109 82205 33126 21069 6590 5896 93162 16623 38199 5894 10336 10442 26187 6867 7775 14242 23249 16412 24649 10996 34913 8482 8255 4689 21968 14484 15419 47794 17004 49683 20250 24542 16109 7777 12620 22352 13380 12251 53335 21241 6069 22209 30165 9034 14025 32074 40122 14758 51601 18809 8844 40736 372 18958 10008 15727 12757 29348 28557 27707 10843 24220 20636 45664 20854 11693 17974 26081 36729 9388 21136 5538 36988 10747 11736 8255 41079 14831 9637 15878 12519 3829 4557 44205 54047 12413 8473 12938 42809 11219 13467 81877 711 32910 23045 30832 14058 11806 8820 13915 14169 33347 6449 10019 15672 10445 44044 12109 10159 13006 16153 14079 15045 24646 31057 23547 37664 12821 17415 29853 17366 12580 10839 9468 44052 30642 37462 12789 10292 44209 10213 26277 18515 34014 25340 36420 11680 9955 10619 23358 16834 12614 7774 16401 11803 25725 15026 13685 12385 4815 43905 36269 12185 9640 15860 11824 53201 42690 37247 40812 32953 17059 13361 11808 14518 10192 14951 14369 4027 12863 16363 10379 22095 9847 14480 24730 53850 46089 11827 16918 44479 12035 17908 40641 11400 10575 18921 12684 19838 15539 11462 23758
Last daily increment 59 91 30 74 67 37 104 104 23 142 96 63 94 192 48 44 231 177 56 140 147 70 275 99 186 103 422 30 69 65 45 57 123 25 246 82 287 95 83 82 57 20 112 449 106 123 91 53 45 29 99 74 133 40 58 76 48 88 78 40 58 104 240 26 81 206 205 90 329 255 119 50 128 115 134 24 110 13 5 52 43 392 79 297 214 39 65 112 106 83 87 76 42 145 65 45 182 267 49 199 46 48 136 65 73 129 65 68 113 57 32 74 55 210 73 140 42 148 17 109 116 58 42 52 73 82 87 71 66 209 53 32 90 59 130 75 177 126 91 47 63 89 96 15 51 126 45 43 52 85 69 141 122 61 35 32 73 83 107 62 79 60 125 71 107 142 115 41 22 124 4 67 55 41 63 88 95 123 261 78 59 69 439 101 44 72 62 53 94 175 134 103 38 30 214 35 140 19 117 13 84 78 63 104 52 94 104 33 196 53 12 32 72 142 54 121 101 87 83 82 65 65 83 73 101 118 175 71 51 256 188 39 44 150 211 89 92 104 24 74 1 37 115 39 60 151 173 125 38 77 121 118 90 62 107 59 62 52 121 20 108 106 57 33 210 88 53 72 57 14 42 101 138 53 59 96 127 33 86 290 1 209 92 145 171 35 65 111 62 340 58 43 147 52 185 139 74 121 89 152 74 91 138 106 43 64 125 112 97 93 53 42 199 88 178 95 193 170 104 156 51 22 316 135 53 53 94 137 97 89 156 62 54 102 65 92 43 50 52 172 95 69 27 98 190 142 82 103 158 128 59 85 79 58 59 170 43 37 84 93 115 71 111 58 212 616 145 109 161 86 143 119 52 82 13 104 113 116 92 87
Last week 488 734 174 440 501 318 652 671 181 1048 538 572 481 1071 390 339 1118 1246 307 685 859 548 1738 670 1330 555 2757 316 371 582 643 466 726 224 1427 509 2006 557 516 572 297 569 790 2892 592 738 522 295 340 209 574 1427 960 291 433 565 300 2208 437 856 349 579 1114 210 547 1019 1230 609 2211 1555 582 408 657 648 1016 204 791 45 303 422 340 2552 503 1997 1333 267 368 747 658 491 404 458 452 937 367 432 1286 1665 246 1247 300 422 813 443 383 661 352 503 690 599 275 515 274 1313 532 893 350 833 171 652 695 323 301 393 363 620 488 488 467 1372 433 197 591 336 849 457 1239 721 567 315 370 559 574 389 401 717 289 349 361 524 295 945 710 481 255 219 510 543 687 434 510 406 771 446 615 1009 771 255 152 909 265 615 389 292 453 581 764 621 1828 515 527 452 3258 826 299 481 546 330 594 1159 722 584 226 238 1462 391 705 162 913 335 481 438 464 463 439 500 512 202 997 332 522 256 1093 842 445 872 666 549 993 638 386 389 585 454 509 570 1092 552 300 1648 1159 250 334 1116 1449 562 713 700 258 624 21 392 780 269 322 1080 1019 854 590 505 735 705 587 427 658 504 1354 316 739 115 870 433 288 212 1393 490 317 589 400 178 251 759 936 404 332 765 843 377 575 2008 15 1273 573 887 1275 285 365 678 412 2147 313 328 870 390 1053 738 455 735 535 1007 461 481 1105 596 383 386 745 826 562 625 321 357 1353 605 1101 591 1195 952 535 756 310 982 1936 813 321 320 490 868 622 637 888 271 330 608 483 484 698 300 497 1204 497 404 822 611 1431 993 544 732 1105 776 360 557 388 463 322 1190 277 214 474 552 740 441 750 373 1128 3709 842 644 1069 556 968 848 285 422 350 624 701 665 560 588
Previous peak date07-2107-2112-272021-07-062021-07-0607-2112-2112-2607-2112-2112-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-07-072021-07-062021-07-0612-2110-0712-2211-0212-2710-1310-1312-062021-01-0710-1511-1311-0212-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2811-0212-2512-212021-07-0712-2212-3012-3010-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-21 --11-0212-222021-08-0912-252021-07-0712-212021-07-0712-2212-212021-07-0707-2107-2112-26 --12-2912-2612-2712-2912-2111-0212-272021-07-0712-2712-2712-212021-07-0612-2112-272021-07-062021-01-022021-01-1310-0110-1412-2712-0712-2607-2107-2112-2707-2112-2412-2907-2112-2312-2111-0907-212021-07-0607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-06 --07-2112-2312-2712-2207-2112-2512-182021-07-0510-1510-2912-2607-2112-272021-07-0712-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-2712-2812-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-222021-07-04 --12-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0107-2112-28 --12-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2110-2709-2912-292021-01-0611-0211-0212-2112-272021-07-0711-0212-2109-2812-2712-2212-212021-07-0711-022021-01-0212-222021-07-052021-07-07 --12-212021-08-0912-2212-2212-2112-2112-3107-2112-2212-2712-0607-2112-0712-2712-2911-022021-07-0712-2712-0612-2707-2112-082021-07-0710-2612-2612-2707-2111-0112-212021-07-0711-042021-07-052021-07-0712-2712-212021-01-0111-022021-07-0811-0210-22 --12-2712-0612-2607-212021-01-0611-0211-0212-2811-0212-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2207-2112-0612-2812-2112-2710-1912-1010-1112-1310-1812-3012-282021-07-0712-252021-01-2612-3011-0212-2910-3107-212021-08-0912-3112-2812-2211-02 --12-3012-2512-2512-2107-2112-2112-2712-282021-07-07 --2021-01-0412-2111-0907-2112-2112-2612-212021-07-072021-07-0712-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-252021-07-0712-2207-212021-07-0712-272021-07-0412-212021-07-0812-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2610-182021-01-0212-2612-302021-01-0412-272021-07-0712-2712-2112-1912-2212-2312-2712-06 --12-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2611-0112-2712-2712-1512-2811-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-21 --07-2111-0212-0707-2112-2212-2712-2210-162021-07-0712-2112-2212-2812-2712-2712-272021-01-0112-2812-252021-01-0312-212021-07-062021-07-0811-02
Previous peak daily increment 616 365 61 115 105 295 134 73 119 260 170 110 171 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 152 144 251 233 262 426 1226 75 166 98 102 58 234 50 363 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 1197 107 508 94 186 62 122 160 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 107 303 294 268 67 197 270 283 95 87 79 121 1272 83 243 35 53 94 285 37 553 288 53 181 598 151 140 189 69 86 246 25 206 248 193 118 322 226 710 536 308 60 52 383 75 160 106 191 65 235 204 102 163 147 117 56 146 593 273 97 74 475 90 82 94 687 150 125 66 43 127 82 1766 104 60 180 92 451 119 34 377 219 59 201 57 401 172 119 338 101 106 136 120 476 101 159 78 442 57 116 452 143 83 248 134 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 153 428 107 1449 479 104 456 79 230 102 480 273 200 90 47 2237 92 419 40 88 298 79 61 153 186 105 213 302 361 79 70 66 191 119 63 2429 105 723 190 212 192 23 93 137 105 55 1007 105 58 231 107 77 96 277 158 121 1343 158 68 257 125 48 108 230 154 139 354 42 150 174 623 105 81 176 459 286 52 188 39 194 139 65 96 212 80 85 122 174 36 28 406 450 81 152 137 403 64 131 573 209 244 167 104 226 111 101 69 345 42 90 72 876 93 76 123 92 132 102 115 247 293 450 131 156 219 94 79 112 149 243 138 242 66 80 206 105 331 189 270 192 172 56 109 46 141 352 92 48 138 122 360 139 51 111 559 151 90 110 122 83 250 329 449 390 224 259 138 117 160 65 154 95 307 166 42 376 67 128 217 319 352 90 148 430 106 159 377 106 115 176 109 173 128 79 594
Low between peaks 0 -1 -3 24 40 0 3 -26 5 -11 2 -7 -16 -8 3 -2 9 -2 -28 54 -12 9 3 303 -1 55 -10 -14 17 2 23 -8 31 -4 -5 -39 -11 1 -1 -18 -8 -8 -16 -1 3 3 1 8 2 -18 -64 5 -9 2 -2 3 -1 -7 -11 -3 129 -14 -6 35 -11 -4 -9 1 1 2 -33 -13 -20 16 -8 -4 -11 43 1 41 2 11 2 -14 -4 -48 -3 -6 -2 -3 -7 -3 -12 -2 -5 30 -1 -5 1 -6 0 -4 -80 -12 1 0 -4 0 4 -5 1 -7 -9 -7 2 -7 -2 -8 -25 -21 1 -27 -25 -2 -5 1 -12 -2 5 2 -1 -8 -12 -20 -9 -1 -27 1 -1 12 -5 3 -2 -7 -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -12 -3 27 21 2 -5 41 120 1 -18 -8 2 58 7 -22 0 14 27 1 -45 11 2 -10 6 2 5 -15 0 -3 0 1 1 15 38 4 2 8 -8 -5 39 -3 -7 -7 5 -6 5 22 41 -3 -7 -4 5 50 1 6 1 3 1 5 -74 37 0 -8 1 -1 -52 -13 -2 1 0 -3 0 3 0 1 -6 -2 0 -14 -6 2 -1 -4 -4 -44 -6 23 -28 4 -3 -2 -3 -12 3 -4 -7 35 -10 2 -2 -3 -17 -2 -6 -40 -13 1 -1 118 4 85 -7 1 -4 -13 -41 3 7 -8 -5 -6 -13 -3 37 -9 2 -6 -11 -1 5 0 -18 -3 16 -8 -23 -4 -6 -4 4 -12 -13 -5 1 -2 1 -4 -2 7 5 -5 -69 0 -20 -2 -5 2 0 -48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-10-18 to 2021-10-24

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-10-17 19531 19120 6237 12726 16842 9682 18012 15166 6415 30941 16001 18906 15395 23401 7845 31782 48999 41249 9556 26269 18072 17040 21324 24630 49120 33444 167602 14896 29659 21995 9994 11364 46271 8700 48886 13759 86370 17945 12869 43011 10898 20353 32544 64105 11926 39510 13186 14129 14541 16620 30358 25021 31496 12196 25187 14202 16122 47333 15479 21861 12559 17545 32288 4840 24575 22750 10648 17115 47404 44648 12277 10750 10189 16995 55655 6259 22291 901 11413 8372 11320 52345 6581 78682 47325 6386 14205 49386 18052 15941 16242 9860 11621 35954 7275 26452 49251 30590 12150 46331 12021 20453 48774 15261 7658 12476 14378 10589 17179 14994 10374 10569 13294 40838 16566 19342 10982 14669 5733 15374 42363 18821 9920 15136 13626 17704 11011 11221 15699 38148 18479 12316 7150 10755 30089 16791 94424 13689 9001 15620 11577 34917 14648 9790 34593 20812 9483 23500 11623 32793 12698 19228 32685 10286 16039 10412 13642 38029 17129 14303 12072 14166 41770 14119 12453 39220 18152 14376 9192 14946 5605 14009 26333 16142 14036 14131 39298 21056 64664 28405 42185 19015 124902 59133 9016 35530 13955 13491 17109 82205 33126 21069 6590 5896 93162 16623 38199 5894 10336 10442 26187 6867 7775 14242 23249 16412 24649 10996 34913 8482 8255 4689 21968 14484 15419 47794 17004 49683 20250 24542 16109 7777 12620 22352 13380 12251 53335 21241 6069 22209 30165 9034 14025 32074 40122 14758 51601 18809 8844 40736 372 18958 10008 15727 12757 29348 28557 27707 10843 24220 20636 45664 20854 11693 17974 26081 36729 9388 21136 5538 36988 10747 11736 8255 41079 14831 9637 15878 12519 3829 4557 44205 54047 12413 8473 12938 42809 11219 13467 81877 711 32910 23045 30832 14058 11806 8820 13915 14169 33347 6449 10019 15672 10445 44044 12109 10159 13006 16153 14079 15045 24646 31057 23547 37664 12821 17415 29853 17366 12580 10839 9468 44052 30642 37462 12789 10292 44209 10213 26277 18515 34014 25340 36420 11680 9955 10619 23358 16834 12614 7774 16401 11803 25725 15026 13685 12385 4815 43905 36269 12185 9640 15860 11824 53201 42690 37247 40812 32953 17059 13361 11808 14518 10192 14951 14369 4027 12863 16363 10379 22095 9847 14480 24730 53850 46089 11827 16918 44479 12035 17908 40641 11400 10575 18921 12684 19838 15539 11462 23758
2021-10-18 19630 19300 6263 12800 17050 9726 18110 15260 6445 31040 16020 19000 15450 23490 7877 31830 49160 41440 9669 26390 18240 17190 21560 24730 49270 33520 168000 14950 29710 22080 10070 11450 46350 8747 49020 13830 86710 18030 12950 43080 10950 20430 32650 64520 12010 39620 13270 14170 14640 16670 30430 25020 31710 12240 25250 14290 16140 47470 15550 22090 12630 17640 32450 4875 24660 22920 10700 17200 47730 44880 12400 10770 10310 17090 55830 6284 22410 908 11550 8431 11400 52790 6587 78880 47530 6425 14260 49500 18150 16040 16300 9970 11720 36110 7333 26520 49540 30860 12190 46400 12070 20580 48900 15320 7723 12590 14430 10700 17280 15080 10410 10710 13350 41040 16610 19480 11030 14790 5762 15480 42480 18870 9960 15200 13690 17790 11090 11320 15770 38310 18560 12360 7237 10800 30210 16860 94770 13780 9080 15670 11640 35000 14730 9920 34660 20930 9530 23560 11680 32870 12740 19360 32780 10370 16080 10410 13750 38110 17250 14370 12170 14230 41880 14200 12550 39400 18330 14420 9225 15140 5681 14110 26390 16190 14110 14220 39410 21150 64950 28480 42260 19120 125100 59300 9063 35600 14050 13540 17200 82460 33230 21210 6626 5932 93400 16760 38310 5921 10440 10480 26260 6940 7839 14310 23420 16490 24720 11030 35060 8534 8383 4730 22090 14610 15510 47930 17060 49780 20360 24600 16210 7836 12660 22420 13460 12340 53570 21270 6069 22210 30320 9074 14090 32270 40330 14850 51710 18980 8884 40890 374 19020 10080 15770 12810 29580 28710 27830 10940 24290 20750 45760 20940 11760 18070 26160 36890 9431 21240 5558 37160 10800 11780 8284 41280 14910 9682 16070 12570 3841 4605 44370 54220 12480 8522 13060 42990 11280 13540 82000 714 33140 23130 30950 14240 11830 8880 14020 14290 33660 6492 10070 15840 10560 44160 12310 10310 13140 16240 14230 15110 24720 31250 23630 37720 12880 17530 29850 17480 12650 10890 9524 44340 30730 37520 12890 10290 44300 10300 26400 18580 34170 25650 36640 11750 10000 10690 23490 16940 12660 7893 16420 11860 25820 15100 13790 12540 4864 43980 36560 12260 9690 15980 11920 53430 42860 37330 40920 33210 17170 13390 11890 14580 10270 15050 14420 4069 12930 16430 10470 22200 9920 14500 24790 53990 46660 11990 17010 44710 12120 18070 40780 11420 10670 19050 12790 19920 15690 11550 23840
2021-10-19 19730 19460 6297 12920 17170 9745 18180 15320 6480 31060 16070 19100 15520 23610 7885 31880 49210 41650 9735 26500 18380 17290 21860 24810 49460 33570 168400 15080 29760 22140 10110 11540 46460 8795 49190 13900 87040 18090 13010 43130 10990 20530 32690 64930 12070 39700 13350 14190 14700 16710 30480 25150 31880 12260 25310 14360 16180 47660 15630 22260 12690 17720 32470 4915 24740 23070 10900 17230 47910 45120 12520 10770 10440 17130 56000 6284 22480 917 11630 8468 11470 53210 6636 79150 47740 6450 14300 49590 18210 16130 16300 10060 11800 36270 7380 26620 49770 31110 12210 46540 12170 20680 49020 15390 7773 12700 14470 10780 17350 15160 10440 10800 13400 41170 16610 19560 11080 14900 5790 15530 42580 18890 9990 15270 13730 17870 11160 11400 15830 38480 18680 12390 7295 10820 30260 16930 95090 13830 9174 15730 11710 35060 14770 10010 34720 21050 9585 23610 11760 32940 12750 19490 32820 10460 16090 10420 13830 38170 17410 14400 12250 14290 41950 14280 12630 39550 18460 14470 9251 15280 5733 14220 26430 16230 14200 14260 39510 21200 65210 28520 42330 19210 125400 59440 9115 35650 14160 13570 17240 82650 33290 21310 6660 5978 93630 16830 38360 5962 10470 10490 26330 7005 7871 14330 23510 16550 24740 11080 35130 8583 8549 4775 22150 14670 15590 48050 17140 49860 20400 24630 16290 7879 12660 22480 13500 12410 53810 21350 6125 22430 30490 9112 14200 32460 40460 14950 51830 19110 8920 41000 375 19130 10120 15800 12870 29790 28790 27910 11040 24330 20860 45800 21030 11820 18090 26230 37050 9456 21270 5581 37310 10860 11790 8295 41480 14990 9714 16220 12590 3846 4658 44500 54370 12560 8540 13160 43140 11340 13570 82210 719 33370 23170 31090 14370 11870 8940 14130 14380 33940 6498 10140 16010 10640 44300 12480 10420 13270 16310 14330 15180 24770 31410 23650 37800 12920 17620 29890 17660 12710 10940 9567 44570 30790 37610 13010 10350 44420 10380 26510 18630 34460 25870 36810 11800 10020 10720 23600 17050 12660 7923 16420 11900 25890 15160 13880 12670 4920 44060 36770 12320 9690 16160 11990 53650 43010 37390 41020 33440 17240 13390 11950 14640 10340 15100 14610 4111 12990 16450 10500 22320 9990 14570 24850 54140 47120 12170 17060 44890 12180 18200 40920 11420 10730 19130 12880 20020 15870 11640 23870
2021-10-20 19830 19580 6327 13010 17280 9775 18260 15390 6512 31120 16130 19200 15580 23760 7905 31920 49310 41850 9795 26630 18530 17380 22210 24900 49670 33630 168800 15170 29810 22200 10170 11630 46560 8824 49380 13970 87350 18160 13080 43220 11040 20620 32770 65340 12140 39790 13430 14230 14770 16740 30550 25350 32050 12290 25370 14440 16210 47900 15700 22400 12750 17800 32550 4952 24830 23220 11060 17290 48150 45340 12640 10770 10550 17200 56170 6293 22580 924 11700 8515 11520 53630 6676 79440 47940 6481 14340 49690 18290 16200 16330 10140 11890 36420 7432 26710 50000 31360 12240 46670 12240 20770 49140 15450 7829 12810 14520 10860 17430 15250 10470 10880 13440 41330 16620 19670 11140 15010 5818 15610 42680 18920 10030 15330 13790 17950 11230 11480 15900 38680 18790 12420 7366 10850 30340 17000 95360 13890 9262 15780 11770 35130 14830 10080 34790 21160 9635 23660 11830 33010 12780 19600 32880 10550 16120 10430 13920 38250 17550 14450 12340 14340 42040 14350 12710 39690 18600 14500 9277 15430 5783 14330 26480 16280 14290 14320 39620 21270 65480 28570 42400 19290 125800 59590 9164 35710 14260 13610 17310 82840 33370 21420 6694 6019 93870 16910 38430 5997 10530 10520 26400 7071 7917 14360 23620 16610 24790 11120 35240 8634 8693 4818 22250 14760 15670 48180 17260 49930 20480 24680 16370 7929 12660 22550 13560 12490 54030 21410 6196 22580 30670 9151 14300 32650 40620 15040 51950 19220 8958 41120 376 19210 10170 15840 12930 29990 28900 28010 11130 24390 20970 45860 21120 11890 18150 26330 37210 9488 21340 5602 37460 10930 11820 8314 41720 15070 9751 16340 12620 3856 4706 44600 54520 12630 8570 13270 43260 11400 13620 82430 723 33570 23220 31210 14520 11920 8999 14240 14460 34240 6521 10190 16180 10730 44460 12630 10540 13410 16380 14460 15240 24820 31590 23700 37860 12970 17710 29950 17800 12800 10990 9615 44790 30870 37730 13120 10410 44560 10460 26630 18690 34690 26120 36940 11850 10060 10770 23720 17160 12660 7984 16420 11950 25970 15220 13980 12800 4971 44140 36990 12390 9703 16310 12080 53880 43150 37460 41120 33660 17330 13390 12020 14690 10410 15160 14770 4152 13040 16500 10560 22430 10060 14640 24910 54310 47640 12330 17130 45060 12250 18350 41050 11420 10810 19210 12970 20130 16040 11730 23930
2021-10-21 19910 19700 6354 13090 17370 9810 18340 15470 6550 31200 16200 19300 15660 23910 7931 31970 49430 42040 9843 26740 18680 17460 22490 24990 49870 33700 169300 15240 29860 22280 10230 11710 46670 8852 49560 14040 87680 18230 13160 43300 11080 20710 32850 65740 12220 39890 13510 14260 14830 16770 30660 25570 32210 12320 25430 14520 16260 48120 15770 22540 12810 17890 32660 4987 24910 23380 11240 17360 48430 45590 12760 10770 10660 17280 56340 6310 22680 931 11760 8567 11570 54050 6738 79720 48160 6514 14390 49790 18370 16270 16360 10210 11960 36580 7485 26780 50200 31610 12280 46810 12300 20850 49250 15510 7887 12920 14560 10950 17510 15330 10500 10970 13480 41500 16650 19790 11190 15120 5846 15700 42790 18960 10060 15390 13840 18030 11300 11560 15970 38880 18880 12450 7441 10880 30430 17070 95590 13960 9352 15830 11840 35200 14900 10140 34850 21270 9683 23710 11900 33080 12810 19720 32960 10630 16150 10440 14010 38320 17670 14510 12430 14400 42140 14430 12800 39830 18700 14540 9304 15600 5827 14430 26530 16310 14360 14390 39740 21350 65760 28630 42470 19350 126200 59720 9212 35770 14340 13650 17380 83010 33450 21530 6728 6057 94100 16990 38510 6028 10610 10550 26470 7135 7971 14410 23690 16680 24840 11150 35350 8684 8823 4860 22350 14870 15740 48310 17350 50020 20570 24730 16450 7981 12680 22610 13620 12580 54200 21460 6245 22760 30830 9189 14370 32830 40800 15130 52070 19340 8996 41220 378 19290 10240 15870 12980 30160 29020 28110 11220 24450 21080 45940 21210 11950 18220 26420 37360 9524 21420 5622 37590 11010 11850 8337 41930 15150 9790 16450 12660 3868 4750 44710 54680 12700 8608 13370 43400 11460 13680 82650 726 33750 23290 31350 14670 11960 9057 14340 14530 34520 6551 10250 16340 10800 44600 12780 10660 13540 16450 14600 15310 24890 31780 23760 37920 13020 17820 30020 17930 12890 11030 9666 45010 30950 37840 13220 10460 44690 10540 26750 18740 34880 26380 37070 11900 10090 10830 23840 17260 12690 8059 16420 11990 26060 15290 14080 12900 5019 44220 37190 12450 9736 16450 12140 54100 43330 37530 41230 33890 17430 13400 12090 14750 10480 15210 14930 4191 13080 16550 10630 22570 10130 14700 24960 54460 48170 12470 17200 45240 12320 18500 41200 11430 10870 19280 13050 20230 16200 11810 23990
2021-10-22 19980 19810 6381 13180 17450 9847 18430 15550 6574 31280 16260 19390 15720 24070 7959 32020 49550 42230 9897 26830 18830 17540 22780 25080 50040 33760 169600 15320 29900 22360 10300 11800 46760 8887 49740 14110 87940 18310 13230 43390 11130 20790 32940 66140 12290 39990 13590 14300 14890 16800 30740 25750 32350 12360 25490 14600 16300 48330 15840 22670 12870 17970 32770 5022 24990 23540 11470 17430 48710 45800 12870 10770 10760 17350 56510 6328 22790 938 11820 8620 11620 54480 6820 79960 48340 6548 14440 49890 18460 16340 16400 10270 12030 36730 7539 26860 50370 31870 12310 46940 12370 20920 49350 15570 7946 13020 14610 11000 17600 15420 10530 11050 13520 41670 16680 19910 11240 15220 5874 15780 42890 19000 10100 15460 13890 18100 11370 11630 16040 39060 18960 12480 7519 10920 30530 17140 95800 14040 9437 15890 11900 35280 14970 10210 34910 21380 9731 23770 11960 33150 12840 19790 33040 10720 16180 10450 14100 38390 17790 14570 12500 14460 42240 14500 12880 39970 18820 14580 9332 15730 5858 14530 26580 16360 14440 14460 39840 21430 66030 28690 42550 19410 126600 59830 9259 35840 14410 13690 17450 83180 33540 21630 6762 6094 94300 17050 38600 6059 10690 10580 26540 7198 8026 14460 23770 16750 24900 11190 35480 8734 8952 4901 22460 14970 15810 48430 17450 50100 20670 24780 16520 8035 12710 22680 13690 12670 54410 21500 6304 23060 30990 9227 14440 32990 40980 15220 52180 19450 9034 41290 380 19360 10310 15910 13030 30340 29150 28220 11300 24510 21190 46020 21300 12020 18290 26500 37520 9561 21500 5642 37710 11090 11880 8361 42110 15230 9830 16520 12700 3880 4792 44800 54800 12770 8647 13470 43530 11520 13750 82860 730 33920 23360 31460 14830 12010 9115 14440 14600 34820 6583 10300 16480 10860 44750 12940 10770 13660 16530 14730 15370 24950 31950 23820 37980 13080 17920 30090 18050 12970 11080 9718 45180 31030 37960 13320 10600 44810 10620 26860 18790 35070 26650 37190 11950 10130 10890 23960 17360 12730 8137 16420 12040 26140 15350 14170 13010 5067 44290 37430 12520 9772 16590 12200 54290 43480 37600 41330 34140 17530 13420 12170 14810 10550 15270 15130 4231 13120 16600 10700 22690 10190 14760 25010 54580 48710 12620 17280 45400 12400 18650 41320 11450 10910 19330 13140 20320 16360 11900 24060
2021-10-23 20030 19900 6407 13250 17510 9887 18520 15640 6586 31380 16330 19490 15790 24220 7990 32070 49690 42420 9941 26920 18980 17610 23040 25180 50220 33840 169900 15380 29950 22440 10370 11880 46840 8912 49920 14180 88150 18390 13310 43450 11180 20870 33040 66530 12370 40090 13670 14330 14940 16820 30810 25960 32460 12390 25550 14690 16330 48470 15910 22800 12930 18060 32900 5056 25070 23690 11680 17500 49010 45990 12990 10770 10860 17440 56630 6349 22900 945 11840 8676 11660 54910 6878 80190 48480 6583 14480 50000 18550 16400 16450 10320 12080 36880 7595 26930 50510 32130 12340 47050 12420 20970 49460 15630 8008 13130 14660 11080 17690 15510 10570 11110 13560 41850 16720 20040 11280 15320 5903 15880 43000 19040 10140 15520 13950 18180 11440 11680 16110 39250 19040 12500 7600 10960 30640 17210 95950 14120 9516 15940 11950 35350 15040 10270 34970 21490 9777 23820 12010 33230 12880 19870 33120 10800 16210 10450 14190 38470 17910 14620 12560 14510 42340 14580 12970 40110 18900 14600 9350 15820 5883 14630 26630 16400 14510 14540 39930 21510 66310 28760 42620 19460 126900 59910 9306 35900 14470 13740 17530 83330 33640 21740 6796 6131 94460 17090 38690 6088 10780 10610 26610 7261 8086 14520 23830 16830 24960 11220 35610 8785 9076 4942 22570 15090 15860 48560 17530 50150 20770 24840 16570 8091 12740 22750 13760 12720 54600 21550 6362 23270 31130 9265 14510 33130 41180 15310 52290 19530 9073 41370 382 19430 10390 15950 13080 30440 29290 28340 11380 24580 21300 46100 21390 12080 18380 26540 37680 9601 21590 5662 37820 11150 11920 8387 42270 15300 9872 16570 12740 3894 4834 44900 54890 12840 8690 13570 43620 11570 13820 83040 733 34040 23430 31590 14980 12040 9173 14550 14650 35110 6620 10350 16630 10900 44890 13080 10870 13790 16610 14880 15440 25020 32100 23900 38040 13130 18030 30150 18170 13020 11130 9771 45340 31120 38030 13420 10710 44910 10710 26980 18820 35240 26930 37280 11980 10170 10950 24090 17460 12770 8225 16420 12090 26230 15420 14260 13110 5114 44370 37570 12590 9815 16720 12260 54460 43590 37680 41440 34310 17630 13440 12240 14860 10630 15310 15290 4271 13160 16660 10780 22780 10260 14790 25070 54730 49280 12760 17370 45510 12470 18810 41410 11470 10960 19370 13220 20400 16510 11990 24130
2021-10-24 20080 19980 6433 13330 17580 9929 18610 15730 6605 31470 16400 19580 15870 24380 8022 32120 49840 42610 9990 27040 19130 17680 23280 25280 50380 33910 170300 15440 30010 22520 10440 11960 46950 8936 50130 14250 88400 18470 13380 43520 11220 20950 33150 66930 12460 40200 13750 14370 14990 16850 30880 26030 32590 12430 25620 14770 16370 48600 15980 22850 12990 18150 33040 5090 25150 23850 11840 17580 49310 46210 13100 10770 10960 17530 56750 6372 23010 951 11860 8733 11710 55340 6925 80460 48660 6620 14530 50110 18640 16480 16500 10390 12120 37030 7652 27000 50690 32400 12380 47230 12470 21020 49580 15690 8070 13240 14700 11140 17790 15600 10610 11180 13600 42040 16760 20170 11320 15420 5931 15970 43100 19090 10180 15580 14010 18260 11510 11750 16180 39410 19120 12530 7684 11010 30750 17280 96130 14200 9580 15990 12010 35430 15120 10280 35030 21600 9823 23870 12070 33310 12920 19980 33210 10890 16250 10480 14280 38550 18030 14680 12640 14560 42450 14650 13070 40240 19000 14630 9370 15950 5890 14730 26680 16430 14580 14620 40010 21600 66580 28820 42700 19530 127300 60000 9352 35970 14540 13780 17620 83480 33740 21810 6831 6167 94660 17130 38790 6117 10880 10650 26680 7324 8147 14580 23890 16900 25020 11250 35740 8835 9201 4983 22680 15200 15910 48690 17610 50230 20880 24900 16620 8147 12780 22810 13830 12830 54730 21590 6389 23530 31310 9304 14570 33280 41380 15400 52410 19630 9112 41440 384 19490 10460 15990 13130 30600 29430 28460 11460 24640 21410 46190 21470 12150 18460 26590 37840 9641 21690 5681 37930 11220 11960 8414 42440 15380 9914 16620 12790 3908 4874 44990 55020 12900 8734 13670 43730 11630 13890 83310 736 34230 23510 31720 15140 12070 9231 14650 14710 35410 6658 10400 16750 10950 45050 13180 10920 13920 16690 15020 15500 25080 32220 23970 38100 13190 18150 30250 18280 13100 11180 9825 45520 31210 38190 13520 10940 45060 10790 27100 18870 35400 27220 37400 12030 10220 11020 24210 17560 12820 8317 16430 12140 26310 15490 14360 13120 5160 44450 37730 12660 9861 16850 12330 54640 43720 37750 41540 34430 17740 13470 12320 14920 10700 15360 15450 4311 13190 16720 10860 22880 10320 14900 25120 54900 49850 12890 17460 45670 12550 18970 41510 11490 11030 19400 13300 20510 16660 12070 24210

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-10-18 to 2021-10-24

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-10-17 19531 19120 6237 12726 16842 9682 18012 15166 6415 30941 16001 18906 15395 23401 7845 31782 48999 41249 9556 26269 18072 17040 21324 24630 49120 33444 167602 14896 29659 21995 9994 11364 46271 8700 48886 13759 86370 17945 12869 43011 10898 20353 32544 64105 11926 39510 13186 14129 14541 16620 30358 25021 31496 12196 25187 14202 16122 47333 15479 21861 12559 17545 32288 4840 24575 22750 10648 17115 47404 44648 12277 10750 10189 16995 55655 6259 22291 901 11413 8372 11320 52345 6581 78682 47325 6386 14205 49386 18052 15941 16242 9860 11621 35954 7275 26452 49251 30590 12150 46331 12021 20453 48774 15261 7658 12476 14378 10589 17179 14994 10374 10569 13294 40838 16566 19342 10982 14669 5733 15374 42363 18821 9920 15136 13626 17704 11011 11221 15699 38148 18479 12316 7150 10755 30089 16791 94424 13689 9001 15620 11577 34917 14648 9790 34593 20812 9483 23500 11623 32793 12698 19228 32685 10286 16039 10412 13642 38029 17129 14303 12072 14166 41770 14119 12453 39220 18152 14376 9192 14946 5605 14009 26333 16142 14036 14131 39298 21056 64664 28405 42185 19015 124902 59133 9016 35530 13955 13491 17109 82205 33126 21069 6590 5896 93162 16623 38199 5894 10336 10442 26187 6867 7775 14242 23249 16412 24649 10996 34913 8482 8255 4689 21968 14484 15419 47794 17004 49683 20250 24542 16109 7777 12620 22352 13380 12251 53335 21241 6069 22209 30165 9034 14025 32074 40122 14758 51601 18809 8844 40736 372 18958 10008 15727 12757 29348 28557 27707 10843 24220 20636 45664 20854 11693 17974 26081 36729 9388 21136 5538 36988 10747 11736 8255 41079 14831 9637 15878 12519 3829 4557 44205 54047 12413 8473 12938 42809 11219 13467 81877 711 32910 23045 30832 14058 11806 8820 13915 14169 33347 6449 10019 15672 10445 44044 12109 10159 13006 16153 14079 15045 24646 31057 23547 37664 12821 17415 29853 17366 12580 10839 9468 44052 30642 37462 12789 10292 44209 10213 26277 18515 34014 25340 36420 11680 9955 10619 23358 16834 12614 7774 16401 11803 25725 15026 13685 12385 4815 43905 36269 12185 9640 15860 11824 53201 42690 37247 40812 32953 17059 13361 11808 14518 10192 14951 14369 4027 12863 16363 10379 22095 9847 14480 24730 53850 46089 11827 16918 44479 12035 17908 40641 11400 10575 18921 12684 19838 15539 11462 23758
2021-10-18 19620 19260 6268 12800 16950 9729 18110 15270 6449 31090 16090 19000 15480 23590 7903 31840 49220 41470 9627 26390 18210 17130 21610 24750 49350 33520 168100 14950 29740 22070 10060 11440 46390 8742 49110 13830 86720 18030 12970 43110 10950 20440 32680 64530 12030 39620 13280 14170 14610 16670 30460 25170 31670 12240 25250 14290 16170 47710 15560 22020 12610 17650 32460 4874 24660 22910 10820 17190 47780 44900 12370 10810 10290 17100 55840 6286 22400 909 11470 8438 11380 52770 6645 79060 47560 6425 14270 49490 18160 16040 16300 9950 11690 36110 7332 26520 49510 30860 12190 46510 12080 20540 48960 15330 7724 12600 14450 10700 17290 15090 10430 10700 13350 41020 16650 19500 11030 14830 5760 15480 42470 18880 9970 15200 13690 17810 11090 11320 15760 38390 18550 12360 7246 10810 30220 16860 94700 13790 9097 15670 11640 35000 14730 9850 34650 20920 9528 23560 11680 32870 12740 19420 32780 10370 16070 10440 13720 38120 17240 14370 12200 14240 41890 14200 12560 39400 18300 14420 9224 15120 5655 14100 26390 16190 14100 14250 39410 21150 64980 28480 42280 19110 125400 59310 9060 35610 14050 13540 17190 82440 33240 21200 6626 5937 93420 16700 38320 5921 10450 10470 26260 6940 7842 14310 23340 16510 24730 11040 35070 8532 8334 4728 22030 14620 15510 47930 17110 49790 20360 24640 16180 7835 12710 22440 13470 12350 53540 21340 6114 22400 30380 9073 14090 32270 40380 14850 51730 18950 8880 40860 374 19020 10130 15770 12820 29550 28720 27850 10930 24320 20740 45760 20950 11760 18090 26180 36860 9433 21250 5559 37150 10810 11780 8300 41370 14900 9686 15990 12590 3857 4593 44380 54210 12490 8529 13040 42970 11270 13550 82200 714 33110 23140 30970 14220 11850 8880 14040 14260 33660 6498 10070 15830 10520 44240 12260 10250 13130 16240 14230 15120 24730 31220 23630 37720 12880 17540 29980 17450 12680 10890 9519 44310 30740 37630 12890 10450 44370 10310 26410 18570 34160 25630 36600 11750 10000 10690 23510 16940 12710 7903 16440 11860 25840 15110 13760 12500 4867 43980 36520 12290 9700 15980 11920 53460 42860 37340 40930 33120 17170 13410 11890 14590 10270 15020 14550 4073 12910 16430 10460 22210 9920 14590 24810 54050 46690 11960 17010 44690 12120 18090 40790 11450 10660 18990 12770 19950 15640 11550 23840
2021-10-19 19710 19410 6292 12890 17060 9765 18200 15360 6483 31230 16150 19120 15550 23740 7971 31880 49360 41680 9688 26480 18320 17240 21840 24850 49570 33570 168500 15020 29800 22140 10120 11520 46510 8786 49300 13910 87060 18100 13050 43190 10990 20530 32760 64940 12100 39730 13350 14210 14670 16710 30540 25320 31850 12270 25310 14390 16230 48080 15630 22200 12650 17750 32570 4908 24740 23040 10980 17240 48090 45140 12450 10850 10380 17190 56020 6298 22520 914 11540 8503 11440 53210 6698 79360 47780 6466 14320 49590 18250 16130 16340 10030 11760 36270 7389 26600 49720 31100 12230 46700 12160 20630 49100 15400 7790 12690 14500 10770 17390 15190 10480 10790 13400 41190 16730 19630 11090 14970 5793 15570 42580 18930 10000 15270 13750 17900 11170 11410 15840 38580 18640 12390 7313 10850 30330 16930 94970 13860 9180 15720 11700 35060 14800 9920 34720 21030 9574 23610 11740 32950 12780 19580 32840 10460 16110 10470 13780 38200 17360 14430 12280 14320 41990 14280 12650 39550 18440 14470 9249 15270 5708 14220 26440 16230 14180 14330 39510 21240 65270 28540 42360 19180 125900 59460 9102 35680 14150 13580 17260 82640 33330 21280 6658 5978 93670 16780 38430 5954 10540 10500 26340 6999 7899 14360 23430 16580 24790 11080 35190 8576 8414 4777 22100 14710 15580 48070 17210 49880 20440 24750 16240 7891 12790 22500 13540 12420 53720 21480 6152 22560 30570 9113 14160 32460 40590 14930 51850 19070 8923 40980 376 19100 10250 15810 12870 29740 28860 27980 11010 24390 20840 45830 21040 11820 18160 26250 37020 9471 21340 5581 37300 10860 11820 8331 41610 14960 9729 16100 12640 3887 4622 44510 54340 12560 8571 13120 43120 11340 13610 82500 718 33310 23210 31100 14380 11880 8932 14150 14340 33910 6530 10120 15980 10590 44380 12380 10320 13220 16330 14360 15180 24790 31390 23700 37790 12930 17650 30080 17550 12760 10950 9574 44550 30840 37790 13000 10570 44510 10390 26500 18610 34370 25870 36760 11800 10040 10750 23640 17030 12790 7992 16470 11910 25940 15190 13830 12610 4923 44040 36730 12370 9745 16120 12000 53660 43020 37420 41040 33310 17270 13450 11970 14640 10360 15070 14700 4118 12950 16490 10550 22330 9990 14700 24870 54210 47140 12080 17100 44860 12200 18220 40910 11490 10720 19070 12850 20050 15740 11640 23910
2021-10-20 19810 19540 6317 12970 17160 9806 18290 15460 6514 31370 16220 19210 15620 23900 8037 31930 49510 41890 9744 26570 18440 17340 22110 24960 49790 33630 168900 15090 29860 22220 10200 11600 46620 8820 49500 13980 87370 18180 13130 43270 11030 20620 32840 65310 12190 39830 13430 14250 14730 16740 30630 25510 32020 12310 25360 14480 16270 48440 15700 22340 12680 17840 32700 4941 24810 23170 11120 17290 48430 45380 12540 10900 10470 17270 56200 6317 22640 919 11600 8571 11500 53650 6749 79670 47990 6508 14370 49700 18340 16210 16380 10110 11840 36430 7446 26680 49940 31330 12260 46890 12210 20720 49220 15470 7855 12780 14550 10840 17490 15280 10520 10860 13450 41360 16800 19770 11140 15080 5825 15680 42690 18970 10040 15330 13800 18000 11240 11490 15910 38790 18730 12420 7389 10890 30440 17000 95210 13940 9264 15770 11760 35130 14870 9980 34780 21120 9619 23670 11800 33020 12820 19730 32900 10550 16140 10500 13850 38270 17480 14490 12360 14390 42090 14360 12730 39700 18590 14510 9274 15420 5758 14330 26500 16280 14250 14410 39610 21320 65580 28600 42450 19250 126400 59610 9143 35750 14250 13630 17340 82840 33420 21370 6689 6013 93900 16860 38520 5986 10640 10540 26410 7058 7965 14410 23530 16650 24860 11120 35330 8621 8499 4825 22180 14810 15650 48200 17320 49960 20540 24860 16290 7948 12880 22570 13610 12490 53910 21600 6201 22720 30750 9152 14220 32650 40800 15010 51980 19190 8966 41090 378 19170 10370 15850 12930 29940 29010 28100 11090 24460 20930 45910 21130 11890 18250 26350 37180 9511 21440 5602 37460 10910 11860 8355 41870 15020 9771 16200 12690 3919 4653 44630 54450 12630 8617 13200 43250 11400 13680 82800 722 33510 23290 31220 14540 11920 8984 14270 14420 34170 6564 10170 16110 10670 44540 12480 10400 13310 16410 14490 15240 24860 31560 23780 37840 12980 17770 30190 17640 12860 11000 9628 44780 30930 37960 13100 10680 44650 10460 26610 18650 34560 26120 36900 11850 10090 10810 23780 17130 12870 8088 16500 11960 26030 15260 13900 12710 4974 44110 36940 12440 9789 16250 12080 53870 43180 37500 41160 33490 17370 13490 12050 14690 10450 15130 14870 4159 12990 16540 10640 22450 10060 14800 24930 54360 47610 12190 17180 45030 12270 18350 41020 11530 10790 19140 12920 20150 15840 11730 23990
2021-10-21 19890 19670 6343 13040 17250 9845 18380 15560 6550 31510 16290 19290 15700 24060 8102 31980 49650 42090 9794 26670 18560 17440 22350 25060 49990 33690 169300 15150 29910 22300 10270 11670 46730 8852 49690 14060 87700 18250 13210 43360 11070 20710 32940 65660 12260 39940 13510 14300 14790 16780 30730 25710 32190 12350 25420 14570 16320 48790 15770 22480 12720 17930 32820 4972 24880 23290 11280 17350 48750 45630 12620 10940 10560 17360 56380 6338 22770 925 11660 8636 11550 54060 6805 79970 48200 6547 14420 49810 18430 16290 16430 10190 11910 36580 7503 26760 50130 31570 12300 47070 12280 20800 49340 15530 7922 12870 14600 10920 17590 15380 10560 10950 13490 41540 16880 19920 11190 15190 5857 15780 42800 19020 10080 15400 13860 18080 11320 11570 15980 39000 18810 12450 7471 10930 30560 17060 95440 14020 9351 15820 11820 35200 14940 10050 34840 21220 9664 23720 11850 33090 12860 19890 32960 10640 16180 10530 13920 38340 17570 14550 12440 14460 42200 14440 12810 39860 18710 14550 9302 15580 5804 14440 26550 16320 14320 14500 39720 21410 65860 28670 42530 19300 127000 59750 9187 35820 14340 13680 17410 83020 33510 21460 6721 6051 94140 16950 38620 6017 10740 10570 26480 7115 8029 14470 23610 16710 24920 11150 35460 8666 8574 4869 22270 14920 15720 48330 17410 50040 20640 24970 16360 8005 12960 22630 13670 12570 54070 21710 6229 22880 30920 9191 14280 32830 41000 15090 52100 19310 9008 41200 380 19240 10500 15880 12980 30100 29160 28220 11170 24530 21030 45990 21220 11960 18330 26440 37340 9551 21530 5622 37590 10970 11900 8381 42070 15080 9814 16290 12740 3947 4684 44750 54570 12690 8665 13280 43380 11460 13760 83100 725 33700 23360 31360 14700 11960 9036 14390 14490 34420 6601 10230 16240 10750 44700 12580 10480 13420 16490 14630 15300 24930 31730 23860 37900 13030 17890 30310 17730 12960 11050 9684 45010 31030 38100 13210 10800 44790 10540 26710 18700 34740 26360 37040 11900 10130 10880 23910 17220 12960 8186 16530 12010 26120 15330 13970 12810 5024 44170 37100 12510 9834 16390 12150 54060 43360 37590 41270 33670 17470 13540 12130 14740 10520 15190 15020 4199 13020 16590 10740 22580 10130 14900 24990 54480 48070 12300 17270 45200 12340 18480 41140 11580 10850 19210 13000 20260 15930 11820 24070
2021-10-22 19960 19800 6365 13120 17340 9884 18480 15650 6577 31650 16350 19380 15760 24220 8168 32030 49770 42270 9844 26750 18680 17540 22550 25150 50150 33740 169700 15210 29960 22370 10330 11740 46830 8887 49880 14130 87980 18310 13280 43440 11120 20800 33040 66030 12330 40050 13570 14340 14860 16810 30810 25880 32340 12380 25470 14660 16360 49120 15830 22620 12750 18020 32940 5004 24940 23400 11450 17400 49040 45870 12710 10980 10640 17430 56550 6357 22880 930 11720 8691 11600 54480 6868 80200 48400 6587 14460 49910 18510 16380 16480 10260 11980 36740 7560 26830 50300 31800 12340 47250 12340 20880 49440 15580 7988 12950 14650 10980 17680 15470 10600 11030 13540 41710 16940 20060 11230 15300 5889 15890 42910 19070 10110 15470 13920 18170 11390 11640 16050 39180 18890 12480 7550 10970 30660 17120 95650 14090 9432 15870 11880 35260 15010 10110 34910 21310 9709 23770 11900 33160 12900 19990 33030 10720 16220 10560 13980 38410 17700 14620 12500 14520 42310 14510 12900 40000 18850 14590 9328 15720 5842 14540 26610 16360 14380 14590 39800 21500 66120 28740 42590 19340 127400 59860 9229 35890 14430 13720 17490 83200 33600 21530 6753 6083 94350 17020 38720 6048 10850 10590 26550 7173 8087 14530 23700 16760 24990 11180 35600 8712 8643 4913 22360 15010 15780 48470 17520 50130 20750 25070 16410 8063 13030 22690 13730 12630 54250 21820 6262 23070 31080 9230 14340 33000 41190 15170 52200 19440 9051 41300 383 19300 10630 15910 13030 30260 29310 28340 11250 24600 21130 46080 21320 12020 18410 26510 37500 9593 21610 5643 37710 11020 11940 8400 42250 15140 9858 16370 12770 3975 4714 44850 54650 12760 8708 13360 43510 11530 13830 83380 729 33890 23420 31480 14840 11990 9086 14490 14570 34670 6640 10280 16360 10810 44850 12660 10550 13510 16560 14760 15350 25010 31900 23940 37950 13080 18010 30430 17820 13040 11100 9742 45200 31130 38240 13310 10920 44920 10610 26810 18740 34900 26580 37170 11950 10180 10930 24030 17310 13050 8288 16550 12060 26200 15400 14030 12890 5073 44220 37330 12590 9873 16530 12210 54200 43510 37660 41370 33850 17570 13580 12210 14800 10600 15250 15170 4241 13050 16640 10830 22700 10190 14990 25040 54560 48490 12390 17360 45370 12400 18620 41230 11610 10890 19270 13060 20350 16020 11910 24140
2021-10-23 20030 19920 6386 13190 17430 9928 18570 15730 6598 31790 16410 19470 15830 24350 8233 32080 49880 42450 9891 26830 18800 17630 22710 25240 50310 33790 170100 15270 30010 22450 10410 11800 46920 8917 50050 14210 88240 18370 13350 43510 11160 20880 33120 66380 12400 40150 13640 14380 14920 16840 30880 26030 32490 12420 25530 14750 16410 49400 15880 22730 12780 18110 33070 5035 25000 23520 11590 17450 49320 46090 12790 11010 10730 17510 56680 6378 23010 935 11780 8745 11650 54860 6912 80400 48560 6629 14500 50020 18600 16450 16530 10320 12040 36890 7618 26900 50440 32030 12380 47420 12400 20950 49540 15640 8055 13040 14690 11040 17780 15550 10630 11090 13590 41880 17000 20200 11270 15390 5921 15990 43020 19100 10140 15520 13980 18240 11460 11690 16120 39370 18960 12510 7617 11010 30760 17190 95830 14170 9517 15920 11940 35330 15080 10170 34970 21410 9755 23830 11950 33230 12940 20100 33080 10810 16250 10590 14040 38470 17790 14690 12540 14580 42410 14590 12980 40140 18960 14620 9350 15850 5878 14650 26670 16390 14450 14650 39880 21590 66380 28800 42660 19380 127800 59950 9273 35950 14510 13770 17560 83370 33690 21600 6784 6112 94540 17080 38810 6078 10950 10620 26630 7222 8152 14590 23780 16820 25050 11210 35740 8758 8709 4953 22460 15100 15820 48600 17600 50190 20860 25170 16470 8122 13110 22740 13790 12700 54400 21920 6300 23250 31230 9269 14380 33170 41370 15250 52300 19540 9094 41390 385 19360 10760 15940 13080 30370 29460 28450 11320 24660 21230 46160 21410 12090 18500 26570 37630 9631 21700 5663 37830 11070 11980 8415 42380 15210 9902 16440 12810 3999 4744 44960 54700 12820 8756 13430 43630 11590 13900 83660 732 34070 23490 31610 14990 12020 9136 14590 14640 34930 6675 10330 16460 10880 44970 12750 10600 13590 16630 14870 15400 25070 32060 24020 38000 13130 18130 30510 17910 13100 11150 9800 45390 31220 38350 13410 11040 45030 10680 26900 18780 35030 26760 37290 11980 10230 10990 24150 17400 13140 8398 16570 12110 26280 15460 14100 12970 5123 44270 37470 12650 9915 16660 12280 54330 43650 37730 41480 34030 17670 13630 12280 14850 10680 15300 15300 4274 13090 16680 10920 22810 10250 15060 25090 54650 48900 12480 17450 45500 12470 18750 41300 11650 10950 19330 13130 20440 16100 12000 24220
2021-10-24 20090 20040 6407 13270 17520 9969 18670 15810 6619 31930 16470 19550 15900 24490 8300 32120 50010 42640 9940 26930 18920 17730 22950 25350 50460 33850 170500 15330 30050 22540 10480 11870 47010 8948 50240 14290 88530 18440 13430 43570 11200 20950 33190 66740 12490 40260 13710 14420 14970 16870 30960 26150 32650 12460 25580 14840 16450 49640 15950 22840 12820 18190 33210 5067 25060 23650 11710 17500 49570 46330 12880 11050 10820 17590 56830 6401 23130 941 11840 8806 11700 55290 6959 80640 48740 6666 14550 50130 18690 16530 16580 10400 12110 37050 7676 26970 50620 32270 12410 47600 12440 21020 49650 15690 8123 13120 14730 11110 17870 15640 10660 11180 13630 42050 17080 20330 11310 15500 5953 16100 43130 19150 10170 15580 14040 18300 11540 11770 16190 39540 19040 12530 7682 11050 30880 17250 96010 14250 9600 15980 11990 35400 15150 10230 35030 21500 9800 23880 12000 33290 12980 20240 33140 10900 16290 10620 14110 38530 17890 14750 12590 14640 42520 14680 13070 40290 19090 14660 9370 15990 5911 14760 26730 16430 14520 14720 39980 21680 66650 28870 42720 19430 128300 60050 9316 36020 14590 13820 17640 83540 33780 21670 6815 6142 94740 17150 38910 6109 11060 10640 26700 7283 8220 14650 23870 16870 25110 11240 35880 8804 8751 4998 22550 15190 15870 48730 17690 50260 20960 25270 16520 8181 13190 22800 13860 12780 54520 22030 6331 23440 31410 9308 14440 33330 41560 15330 52400 19650 9137 41490 387 19420 10890 15970 13130 30550 29600 28560 11380 24720 21340 46250 21500 12160 18590 26620 37740 9673 21800 5683 37950 11120 12020 8436 42570 15270 9946 16520 12860 4025 4772 45060 54790 12880 8804 13490 43760 11660 13980 83950 736 34260 23560 31740 15160 12050 9188 14700 14700 35190 6715 10380 16570 10950 45090 12840 10650 13680 16710 15000 15460 25140 32230 24100 38040 13180 18250 30610 18000 13170 11200 9858 45600 31310 38500 13510 11170 45150 10750 27010 18820 35180 26990 37420 12030 10270 11050 24270 17500 13240 8496 16590 12160 26370 15530 14170 13020 5172 44320 37610 12720 9959 16790 12350 54480 43800 37810 41580 34180 17770 13670 12350 14900 10750 15360 15440 4311 13120 16730 11020 22920 10310 15170 25140 54750 49340 12580 17550 45650 12540 18870 41370 11690 11010 19390 13190 20540 16210 12090 24300

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.