COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-11-10 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-11-10

Slideshow of forecasts 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how we lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-11-10

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-08-312021-08-302021-07-082021-09-142021-09-262021-08-262021-10-19 --2021-08-242021-09-012021-10-192021-10-032021-10-062021-10-112021-10-022021-07-082021-07-082021-07-062021-09-262021-07-062021-10-092021-10-032021-10-112021-10-042021-07-122021-07-0712-292021-09-1412-272021-07-082021-10-072021-10-052021-05-102021-07-062021-01-012021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-10-052021-07-072021-07-072021-10-122021-07-072021-07-072021-10-102021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-07-072021-07-062021-10-102021-10-022021-07-282021-07-082021-10-052021-10-262021-10-052021-07-072021-08-292021-07-07 --2021-10-172021-10-102021-08-302021-10-102021-10-102021-10-052021-10-032021-10-042021-10-142021-10-112021-10-092021-10-042021-08-222021-08-242021-10-052021-10-242021-09-092021-10-122021-08-302021-10-052021-10-122021-07-022021-07-072021-10-042021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-10-052021-10-102021-10-032021-09-192021-10-022021-10-032021-08-132021-07-072021-10-122021-08-032021-07-072021-08-162021-06-212021-07-082021-08-292021-10-122021-10-102021-08-182021-10-102021-10-062021-10-052021-06-132021-10-032021-08-222021-07-062021-10-082021-10-052021-07-072021-10-102021-10-022021-10-022021-07-092021-07-072021-07-052021-07-062021-08-102021-08-252021-10-102021-10-052021-08-132021-08-292021-09-082021-07-072021-10-102021-10-122021-10-172021-07-062021-08-232021-10-132021-10-102021-10-152021-07-072021-07-072021-10-052021-09-132021-07-072021-10-052021-10-152021-07-072021-09-132021-07-092021-10-112021-10-032021-07-072021-09-262021-07-052021-08-162021-10-112021-07-082021-09-162021-07-072021-10-052021-08-252021-07-072021-10-022021-10-102021-10-052021-10-042021-06-232021-08-232021-10-042021-09-262021-10-062021-07-072021-07-102021-09-172021-10-162021-07-072021-10-102021-10-0612-272021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-01-032021-07-032021-07-082021-10-032021-07-212021-09-0112-262021-10-122021-10-112021-10-102021-10-182021-07-072021-08-102021-07-102021-09-132021-10-1012-082021-07-082021-10-052021-10-062021-10-222021-08-112021-08-112021-07-072021-08-252021-07-072021-10-112021-10-11 --2021-09-072021-10-102021-07-062021-07-032021-10-042021-07-302021-10-102021-08-162021-08-26 --2021-10-042021-07-032021-10-112021-10-102021-08-222021-09-212021-10-112021-10-102021-10-112021-10-052021-09-132021-10-032021-10-122021-10-112021-07-072021-09-272021-10-032021-07-07 --2021-06-222021-10-092021-07-072021-06-222021-10-052021-07-072021-01-012021-10-052021-07-062021-10-072021-10-172021-07-072021-10-032021-10-112021-08-232021-09-112021-10-112021-07-082021-07-062021-07-052021-07-072021-07-042021-07-082021-10-042021-09-142021-10-102021-07-072021-10-112021-10-042021-10-102021-07-072021-07-062021-07-0612-232021-10-062021-06-28 --2021-10-112021-07-0807-21 --2021-10-112021-07-062021-10-052021-08-182021-10-052021-10-052021-09-242021-10-072021-08-09 --2021-10-052021-09-262021-08-232021-10-082021-10-052021-10-092021-10-052021-10-102021-10-102021-06-272021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-10-052021-10-152021-07-072021-09-132021-10-042021-10-102021-08-252021-10-012021-07-062021-10-032021-09-272021-10-062021-07-052021-10-102021-10-102021-07-072021-09-262021-10-102021-07-072021-06-222021-07-082021-10-152021-10-052021-07-062021-10-102021-10-072021-08-112021-07-072021-10-052021-07-072021-07-072021-10-10 --2021-07-072021-09-272021-10-112021-10-102021-10-102021-10-102021-07-062021-07-072021-07-092021-07-062021-07-072021-10-102021-07-072021-10-082021-10-112021-10-022021-07-072021-10-072021-10-082021-08-252021-07-072021-10-032021-08-252021-10-052021-10-112021-07-072021-07-072021-10-092021-10-102021-10-052021-06-292021-10-072021-10-062021-07-072021-07-062021-10-072021-09-282021-10-062021-10-122021-10-042021-10-052021-06-30
Peak daily increment 179 224 51 98 123 88 111 97 199 136 124 82 198 68 93 260 276 70 139 152 116 277 119 379 176 1249 89 157 159 122 77 208 42 484 107 478 103 91 176 68 120 218 621 104 258 94 72 97 74 161 238 179 72 159 101 65 416 115 190 101 250 70 128 186 197 99 373 269 98 91 122 110 567 69 146 22 102 76 72 457 97 607 376 47 101 229 122 93 94 89 84 170 66 202 400 313 47 269 137 184 189 133 79 114 183 94 123 110 112 96 157 295 92 164 61 147 34 118 145 105 58 110 128 185 86 89 171 421 121 67 99 69 154 123 941 131 103 68 113 163 99 95 229 125 62 156 87 152 74 161 143 93 146 54 104 151 165 82 89 203 197 89 129 174 150 71 136 162 64 116 189 84 139 109 247 109 316 311 301 117 707 284 51 213 100 99 121 727 135 136 41 47 442 96 169 41 161 105 124 73 80 122 119 113 274 115 196 65 96 184 148 116 384 114 155 183 141 164 101 256 91 102 621 176 54 278 225 46 91 199 262 105 264 131 46 255 131 142 56 113 201 343 203 108 104 130 128 297 78 120 289 268 55 140 67 213 75 69 49 232 116 61 116 76 36 47 253 255 94 83 128 195 101 482 24 105 277 205 118 61 120 87 361 86 143 85 470 126 81 131 89 171 82 303 200 152 243 71 146 141 143 105 58 91 247 339 202 112 198 428 95 156 101 270 319 219 83 60 98 154 116 116 144 92 78 106 105 131 130 226 286 93 75 156 108 352 191 157 313 195 141 73 103 100 92 102 188 49 158 94 104 207 75 140 138 380 619 147 117 243 96 163 185 99 76 77 107 132 117 94 138
Days since peak 71 72 125 57 45 76 22 78 70 22 38 35 30 39 125 125 127 45 127 32 38 30 37 121 126 316 57 318 125 34 36 184 127 313 126 126 126 36 126 126 29 126 126 31 127 126 126 128 126 127 31 39 105 125 36 15 36 126 73 126 24 31 72 31 31 36 38 37 27 30 32 37 80 78 36 17 62 29 72 36 29 131 126 37 126 126 126 36 31 38 52 39 38 89 126 29 99 126 86 142 125 73 29 31 84 31 35 36 150 38 80 127 33 36 126 31 39 39 124 126 128 127 92 77 31 36 89 73 63 126 31 29 24 127 79 28 31 26 126 126 36 58 126 36 26 126 58 124 30 38 126 45 128 86 30 125 55 126 36 77 126 39 31 36 37 140 79 37 45 35 126 123 54 25 126 31 35 318 126 125 126 311 130 125 38 112 70 319 29 30 31 23 126 92 123 58 31 337 125 36 35 19 91 91 126 77 126 30 30 64 31 127 130 37 103 31 86 76 37 130 30 31 80 50 30 31 30 36 58 38 29 30 126 44 38 126 141 32 126 141 36 126 313 36 127 34 24 126 38 30 79 60 30 125 127 128 126 129 125 37 57 31 126 30 37 31 126 127 127 322 35 135 30 125 477 30 127 36 84 36 36 47 34 93 36 45 79 33 36 32 36 31 31 136 126 126 126 36 26 126 58 37 31 77 40 127 38 44 35 128 31 31 126 45 31 126 141 125 26 36 127 31 34 91 126 36 126 126 31 126 44 30 31 31 31 127 126 124 127 126 31 126 33 30 39 126 34 33 77 126 38 77 36 30 126 126 32 31 36 134 34 35 126 127 34 43 35 29 37 36 133
Last total 22191 22559 7069 14265 18595 11365 20610 17830 7569 34603 19134 20519 17164 27222 9040 33740 53792 45410 10981 29015 20938 18618 25972 27270 53814 36109 178463 16389 31319 23875 11737 12631 49235 9575 56000 15663 92531 20048 14709 45735 11954 23000 36348 72035 14004 42816 14892 15427 16120 17554 32958 29465 34238 13533 27125 15715 17749 55429 16905 25351 14018 20049 38020 5990 27370 26025 13237 19132 53374 49735 14396 12758 12265 18898 60242 7356 25514 1280 12953 10034 12419 60530 8367 86226 52080 7293 16230 52607 20743 17815 18169 11501 13239 39066 8316 28077 53508 37659 13272 51109 14047 22215 52344 17257 9331 15027 15746 12543 19536 16869 11604 11985 14301 46096 18660 22267 12202 17442 6426 17545 45257 20386 11048 16743 15535 19914 12979 12625 17868 43381 20616 13303 8990 12100 33430 18383 99497 16451 11096 17170 12786 37222 16533 11883 36801 23135 10884 25275 12979 35016 14215 22238 35374 12005 17379 11648 15753 40938 20082 15803 13695 17195 45086 16123 15247 42626 20724 15225 10136 17420 6459 16261 28131 17465 15404 16402 42670 23390 70266 30463 44505 20653 135456 63585 10203 37744 15424 14930 19456 86946 36319 23776 7505 6997 98706 17882 41503 6620 13038 11555 28283 8507 9262 17194 25386 18404 26568 11947 39239 9914 10181 5901 25276 17400 17043 51896 19006 52163 23615 27028 17683 9630 14473 24549 15474 14169 58026 23427 7284 26515 35047 9990 15261 35837 45697 16778 54797 20880 9861 43039 792 20340 12642 16770 14648 32732 32863 30879 13223 26294 22838 48691 23193 13001 20290 27870 40898 10583 24065 6256 40173 12169 12900 9426 45911 16450 10982 17591 14211 4362 5541 46965 57728 14315 9959 15224 46786 12846 15460 89151 842 37582 25226 33938 16813 13093 9886 16421 15845 39474 7748 11502 18039 11660 47979 14215 11588 15254 18007 17518 16818 27011 35142 26038 39717 14373 20602 32833 19378 14396 12099 10846 48342 33489 41198 14933 13105 48128 12038 29292 20495 38658 30308 39737 12741 11249 12977 26669 18913 15002 10157 17839 13343 27755 16881 16070 14915 6004 46319 39978 14149 11068 19373 13989 58270 46209 39658 43841 36091 19565 14776 13963 16836 11393 16381 17262 5101 13853 17935 12214 24740 11502 17344 26497 58159 56147 14417 19352 48594 13640 20722 43653 12955 12256 20885 14628 22742 17499 13083 26824
Last daily increment 129 120 29 53 62 107 99 121 57 162 170 61 91 141 58 96 183 140 48 138 103 66 138 94 215 111 479 68 65 76 14 57 130 44 354 70 209 87 46 133 52 36 171 341 69 193 65 77 62 48 87 81 71 52 130 60 97 297 50 97 52 176 238 23 163 109 81 116 223 204 71 65 64 72 191 50 141 17 30 36 49 318 58 283 160 20 90 127 124 82 83 66 46 104 26 86 157 334 67 227 109 58 198 71 37 119 91 75 137 59 71 65 62 241 96 126 60 113 28 138 114 66 49 78 84 151 100 33 96 216 49 43 56 48 122 63 245 112 88 63 46 107 84 23 118 93 54 100 80 117 54 130 117 68 46 94 94 106 128 60 74 188 134 90 124 136 91 49 49 64 10 101 86 85 69 62 150 107 162 80 135 73 365 223 77 102 64 54 105 226 143 124 30 32 214 38 160 55 73 9 96 86 55 180 168 113 61 56 192 68 37 86 45 141 76 131 87 102 36 141 69 117 77 130 127 88 231 105 29 151 148 35 52 129 162 68 108 77 44 96 21 79 47 42 95 138 204 120 40 64 92 130 75 63 72 101 74 50 152 14 120 63 53 68 179 62 66 71 73 43 49 120 121 92 71 97 181 100 100 284 17 280 91 144 95 62 32 99 67 250 64 53 101 49 187 71 53 90 83 142 77 65 152 103 127 62 116 96 92 67 59 77 144 119 147 77 61 117 60 121 112 63 137 130 47 90 120 126 114 119 73 71 80 100 91 120 63 97 114 126 74 58 118 84 242 113 116 149 105 73 52 89 123 44 82 98 36 49 84 87 103 81 93 77 235 354 76 131 161 76 70 107 72 76 70 91 159 72 41 132
Last week 744 706 165 349 389 521 617 722 315 919 721 316 427 699 291 490 963 863 343 596 553 333 792 557 1230 630 2463 391 375 406 247 256 766 214 1802 364 1148 468 332 681 249 511 822 1557 366 861 365 313 397 242 517 684 432 282 490 297 442 1606 308 761 310 813 1248 158 930 677 419 501 1237 1016 428 415 314 453 1194 283 828 91 295 304 288 1751 311 1607 982 157 476 728 594 402 374 446 335 687 166 404 906 1558 340 1171 698 386 867 550 296 616 390 373 549 368 323 343 315 1259 472 590 277 530 136 583 593 315 236 351 501 646 491 212 585 1382 427 262 309 222 677 359 1224 608 435 326 252 514 449 519 580 458 288 438 385 564 281 643 590 343 267 386 418 635 672 302 305 965 773 541 575 709 549 214 280 387 130 476 402 382 342 374 851 508 1011 468 577 388 2026 1133 306 532 356 347 599 1171 740 516 203 226 1281 270 829 225 457 196 487 411 302 825 669 573 317 261 982 334 347 417 597 547 367 811 435 599 549 666 411 556 436 614 513 392 1216 554 229 713 872 181 233 784 1074 366 667 426 256 522 128 351 367 218 599 677 1008 685 517 399 407 721 481 310 463 477 699 235 672 134 687 284 235 313 965 382 348 347 358 130 198 638 818 452 387 467 946 436 426 1459 57 1308 452 667 436 397 206 539 379 1118 325 320 573 289 1076 345 300 423 395 684 376 469 830 570 490 369 588 599 469 375 284 364 795 633 786 482 384 802 347 604 531 879 790 725 270 351 632 720 460 536 377 351 335 437 396 601 422 397 646 766 407 247 684 439 1124 651 585 777 658 369 286 442 527 250 397 544 232 249 388 421 606 413 529 433 1070 1925 416 590 939 317 437 647 320 351 489 406 603 386 262 711
Previous peak date07-2107-2112-272021-07-062021-07-0607-2112-2112-2607-2112-2112-2112-2712-0712-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-07-072021-07-0611-0212-2110-0712-2211-0212-2710-1310-1312-072021-01-0710-1511-1311-0212-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2811-0212-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3010-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-21 --11-0212-222021-08-1012-252021-07-0712-212021-07-0612-2112-212021-07-0707-2107-2112-26 --12-292021-07-0612-272021-08-0912-2411-0212-272021-07-0712-2712-2712-212021-07-0512-2112-212021-07-062021-01-022021-02-2510-0110-1412-2712-0712-2607-2107-2112-2707-2112-242021-08-1007-2112-2412-2111-0907-212021-07-0607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-06 --07-2112-2312-2712-2207-2112-2512-252021-07-062021-07-062021-07-0412-2607-212021-07-0712-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-272021-07-0712-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-222021-07-04 --12-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0107-2112-28 --12-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2210-2709-2912-2912-3011-0211-0212-2112-272021-07-0711-0212-2109-2812-2712-2212-212021-07-0711-022021-01-0212-222021-07-052021-07-07 --12-212021-08-0912-2112-2212-2112-2212-3107-2112-2212-2712-06 --12-0712-2712-2911-022021-07-0712-2712-0612-2707-212021-08-092021-07-0710-2612-2612-2107-2111-0112-212021-07-072021-07-042021-07-062021-07-0712-272021-07-062021-01-0111-022021-07-0811-0210-22 --12-2712-2812-2607-212021-01-0611-0211-0212-0611-0212-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2207-2112-0612-2712-2112-2710-1912-1310-1112-1310-1812-3012-2810-1312-252021-01-262021-01-0211-0212-2910-3107-212021-08-0912-2812-2812-2211-02 --12-3012-2512-2512-2107-2112-2212-2112-282021-07-07 --2021-07-0712-2211-0907-2112-2112-2212-202021-07-072021-07-0712-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-252021-07-0712-2207-212021-07-0712-272021-07-0512-212021-07-0812-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2510-182021-01-0212-262021-08-092021-01-0412-272021-07-0712-2612-2112-2112-2212-2212-2712-062021-08-1012-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-202021-08-0907-2111-0212-0707-2112-2212-2812-2210-1612-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-2712-3112-2812-2512-3112-212021-07-062021-07-0811-02
Previous peak daily increment 605 360 61 115 105 285 134 82 115 260 170 110 176 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 152 144 277 233 262 426 1200 75 166 98 95 58 234 50 355 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 1167 107 508 94 186 62 122 160 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 111 303 292 268 65 197 269 283 82 91 71 121 1221 82 243 35 114 94 708 34 551 288 53 181 598 151 140 189 72 86 246 27 206 248 187 118 322 216 697 536 296 60 135 370 76 160 106 184 65 231 206 102 163 146 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 457 90 74 94 661 150 125 56 82 274 82 1697 95 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 218 84 201 57 401 172 103 338 103 106 136 120 476 101 159 73 442 57 115 452 143 83 239 134 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 153 428 107 1522 469 104 457 80 229 102 480 274 200 90 47 2166 92 419 40 71 298 72 62 153 186 104 213 296 361 79 62 191 105 63 2512 105 723 190 212 186 83 94 137 105 50 969 105 58 203 228 77 96 277 322 121 1362 158 68 257 125 44 108 227 154 135 347 43 156 174 623 105 81 176 445 286 52 188 39 194 138 65 96 198 80 85 67 174 36 25 417 448 80 147 123 407 71 131 557 216 244 167 97 218 110 102 69 345 47 86 73 839 94 79 108 92 106 102 115 248 293 451 131 156 222 94 77 112 144 243 138 240 67 69 206 105 331 189 270 181 172 56 109 143 140 349 92 44 138 123 360 138 51 101 63 559 151 90 110 120 84 245 329 449 390 227 260 138 117 160 65 154 87 70 296 165 42 369 67 115 217 318 264 83 148 431 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 120 74 573
Low between peaks 0 -1 -3 24 37 0 3 -26 5 -11 2 -7 -17 -8 3 -2 9 -1 -30 51 54 -14 -12 9 3 307 -1 55 -9 0 -14 17 2 31 -8 31 -4 -5 -39 -11 1 -1 -18 -8 -8 -10 -16 -1 3 3 0 8 2 -17 -6 -64 5 -9 2 -2 -1 -7 -11 21 -3 129 -14 31 -6 0 35 -11 -4 -9 1 25 2 227 -1 -13 -19 16 -8 -4 -11 43 1 -7 41 2 -3 11 1 -28 -14 -4 -48 -3 -6 -2 -3 49 -3 -6 -12 -2 -5 30 -1 -5 1 -17 -6 -5 0 -4 -80 -12 1 0 -4 0 0 4 -5 1 -7 19 32 75 2 -7 21 -8 -2 -8 -25 -21 1 -27 -25 27 -5 1 -12 -2 -17 5 2 -1 -8 -12 -19 -9 -1 33 -27 1 -1 12 -5 3 -2 -7 -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -12 -3 27 20 2 -5 40 120 1 -18 35 -9 2 58 7 -22 0 14 27 1 -45 11 31 2 20 -3 -10 6 2 5 -15 0 -3 0 1 -10 1 15 38 4 2 8 -8 39 -3 -7 -6 -7 5 -6 57 88 22 41 -3 111 -4 6 50 1 6 1 1 3 1 5 -74 37 0 0 -8 1 -1 -51 -13 -2 1 0 -4 0 3 0 1 -6 0 -2 0 1 -14 -6 -8 2 -1 -4 -4 40 -45 -6 23 4 -3 -10 -2 -3 -4 -12 58 -5 -4 -7 -11 -5 -1 35 42 -10 2 -2 -3 -16 -2 -6 -39 -13 27 1 -1 119 4 85 -7 25 1 -4 -13 -40 3 -9 7 -8 -5 34 -12 -3 37 -4 -9 2 -6 -11 -1 1 5 0 -18 -3 1 -18 16 -9 -22 -4 -6 -4 4 -12 -13 -5 1 -7 17 -2 1 -4 -2 -1 -12 7 6 -36 -9 -5 -68 0 -11 -19 -2 -6 2 1 0 44 35 -48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-11-11 to 2021-11-17

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-11-10 22191 22559 7069 14265 18595 11365 20610 17830 7569 34603 19134 20519 17164 27222 9040 33740 53792 45410 10981 29015 20938 18618 25972 27270 53814 36109 178463 16389 31319 23875 11737 12631 49235 9575 56000 15663 92531 20048 14709 45735 11954 23000 36348 72035 14004 42816 14892 15427 16120 17554 32958 29465 34238 13533 27125 15715 17749 55429 16905 25351 14018 20049 38020 5990 27370 26025 13237 19132 53374 49735 14396 12758 12265 18898 60242 7356 25514 1280 12953 10034 12419 60530 8367 86226 52080 7293 16230 52607 20743 17815 18169 11501 13239 39066 8316 28077 53508 37659 13272 51109 14047 22215 52344 17257 9331 15027 15746 12543 19536 16869 11604 11985 14301 46096 18660 22267 12202 17442 6426 17545 45257 20386 11048 16743 15535 19914 12979 12625 17868 43381 20616 13303 8990 12100 33430 18383 99497 16451 11096 17170 12786 37222 16533 11883 36801 23135 10884 25275 12979 35016 14215 22238 35374 12005 17379 11648 15753 40938 20082 15803 13695 17195 45086 16123 15247 42626 20724 15225 10136 17420 6459 16261 28131 17465 15404 16402 42670 23390 70266 30463 44505 20653 135456 63585 10203 37744 15424 14930 19456 86946 36319 23776 7505 6997 98706 17882 41503 6620 13038 11555 28283 8507 9262 17194 25386 18404 26568 11947 39239 9914 10181 5901 25276 17400 17043 51896 19006 52163 23615 27028 17683 9630 14473 24549 15474 14169 58026 23427 7284 26515 35047 9990 15261 35837 45697 16778 54797 20880 9861 43039 792 20340 12642 16770 14648 32732 32863 30879 13223 26294 22838 48691 23193 13001 20290 27870 40898 10583 24065 6256 40173 12169 12900 9426 45911 16450 10982 17591 14211 4362 5541 46965 57728 14315 9959 15224 46786 12846 15460 89151 842 37582 25226 33938 16813 13093 9886 16421 15845 39474 7748 11502 18039 11660 47979 14215 11588 15254 18007 17518 16818 27011 35142 26038 39717 14373 20602 32833 19378 14396 12099 10846 48342 33489 41198 14933 13105 48128 12038 29292 20495 38658 30308 39737 12741 11249 12977 26669 18913 15002 10157 17839 13343 27755 16881 16070 14915 6004 46319 39978 14149 11068 19373 13989 58270 46209 39658 43841 36091 19565 14776 13963 16836 11393 16381 17262 5101 13853 17935 12214 24740 11502 17344 26497 58159 56147 14417 19352 48594 13640 20722 43653 12955 12256 20885 14628 22742 17499 13083 26824
2021-11-11 22250 22690 7099 14320 18660 11420 20710 17930 7596 34740 19270 20580 17230 27340 9087 33810 53960 45560 11040 29160 21030 18700 26120 27370 53960 36210 179000 16450 31400 23940 11780 12670 49330 9608 56240 15730 92700 20130 14770 45830 11990 23090 36490 72300 14070 42950 14950 15480 16180 17580 33140 29570 34440 13580 27200 15760 17790 55990 16960 25530 14070 20170 38240 6026 27530 26140 13320 19210 53660 50140 14480 12830 12320 18970 60380 7400 25640 1280 13050 10090 12450 60830 8421 86670 52390 7323 16310 52730 20840 17880 18240 11540 13300 39180 8328 28140 53740 37930 13320 51280 14130 22320 52480 17340 9388 15130 15800 12610 19640 16990 11650 12020 14300 46310 18760 22460 12260 17530 6453 17630 45370 20450 11090 16810 15610 20050 13060 12690 17960 43520 20700 13330 9039 12140 33550 18440 99700 16550 11170 17230 12830 37310 16600 11960 36890 23220 10940 25330 13040 35090 14270 22350 35480 12070 17430 11650 15860 41050 20230 15850 13730 17340 45220 16200 15350 42790 20870 15250 10200 17630 6532 16380 28200 17540 15460 16470 42790 23480 70420 30540 44590 20720 135800 63730 10250 37830 15470 14990 19550 87120 36440 23860 7539 7038 99000 17950 41630 6651 13120 11600 28360 8571 9328 17320 25510 18510 26660 11990 39410 9970 10260 5967 25370 17550 17100 52050 19090 52260 23730 27130 17730 9710 14540 24640 15560 14230 58180 23490 7367 26650 35130 10020 15310 36040 45890 16810 54920 20960 9900 43140 810 20390 12700 16810 14740 32950 33030 31000 13340 26370 22910 48810 23280 13050 20360 27920 41020 10630 24180 6283 40350 12220 12940 9476 46050 16520 11030 17650 14280 4384 5577 47090 57910 14390 10020 15320 46950 12900 15530 89390 842 37800 25310 34050 16890 13100 9920 16510 15910 39610 7798 11550 18120 11700 48070 14350 11630 15340 18080 17640 16880 27100 35320 26140 39800 14430 20710 33010 19450 14490 12150 10880 48680 33600 41410 15010 13170 48370 12130 29400 20530 38820 30430 39910 12780 11300 13070 26790 18990 15090 10230 17900 13400 27830 17010 16170 15080 6048 46420 40100 14200 11140 19500 14060 58520 46370 39760 43960 36240 19640 14830 14040 16930 11450 16450 17360 5141 13890 18000 12280 24840 11570 17440 26560 58310 56390 14490 19450 48790 13700 20790 43810 13020 12350 20960 14720 22910 17570 13100 26940
2021-11-12 22330 22880 7146 14390 18740 11420 20820 18000 7632 34890 19380 20670 17300 27460 9127 33870 54240 45770 11100 29260 21140 18800 26320 27500 54120 36320 179400 16500 31460 24030 11870 12730 49430 9639 56500 15840 92850 20220 14890 45940 12040 23240 36680 72630 14130 43050 15020 15520 16240 17610 33250 29670 34570 13650 27260 15810 17850 56390 17030 25680 14150 20210 38520 6119 27710 26300 13460 19280 53840 50410 14590 12940 12400 19050 60560 7433 25750 1286 13110 10200 12490 61250 8488 86970 52600 7388 16390 52860 20970 17980 18350 11590 13380 39300 8345 28200 53910 38260 13330 51440 14240 22390 52620 17390 9508 15230 15830 12730 19760 17080 11690 12060 14330 46510 18850 22590 12310 17640 6488 17690 45520 20530 11150 16870 15680 20170 13130 12730 18010 43710 20800 13370 9084 12180 33750 18520 99900 16700 11290 17310 12900 37410 16680 12040 36950 23350 11010 25390 13070 35160 14360 22490 35600 12170 17510 11680 16010 41180 20340 15890 13760 17470 45350 16270 15510 42880 20970 15270 10260 17750 6566 16530 28280 17610 15510 16530 42880 23590 70510 30630 44670 20790 136000 63900 10280 37910 15510 15050 19640 87270 36580 23950 7585 7094 99200 18000 41760 6657 13250 11680 28460 8631 9429 17390 25610 18600 26830 12010 39600 10030 10400 6008 25520 17770 17180 52290 19150 52360 23940 27200 17790 9770 14620 24690 15630 14340 58370 23550 7432 26890 35220 10080 15380 36200 46240 16830 55090 21050 9940 43230 828 20440 12790 16860 14840 33100 33220 31140 13440 26490 22990 48920 23400 13100 20450 27980 41220 10690 24310 6326 40470 12300 13010 9500 46180 16600 11080 17690 14350 4403 5630 47190 58050 14460 10060 15480 47090 12930 15640 89600 851 37980 25420 34210 16970 13140 9960 16640 15990 39740 7848 11590 18200 11750 48180 14430 11690 15450 18170 17840 16980 27230 35570 26240 39860 14490 20920 33150 19550 14630 12210 10920 48910 33730 41550 15120 13240 48550 12270 29570 20580 39070 30560 40040 12820 11340 13140 26950 19090 15210 10320 17950 13470 27930 17120 16260 15180 6054 46470 40210 14270 11260 19690 14130 58710 46470 39840 44050 36350 19730 14910 14160 17020 11480 16510 17460 5196 13930 18060 12370 24970 11620 17630 26620 58480 56610 14570 19540 48960 13770 20850 43930 13100 12420 21030 14840 23030 17630 13130 27080
2021-11-13 22390 23040 7185 14460 18820 11430 20930 18080 7663 35030 19490 20740 17350 27570 9169 33930 54460 45960 11160 29340 21230 18890 26490 27610 54270 36430 179700 16550 31510 24110 11930 12770 49530 9662 56730 15930 92970 20310 14980 46020 12080 23360 36840 72920 14180 43160 15080 15570 16300 17640 33320 29770 34650 13710 27320 15840 17900 56670 17090 25790 14220 20280 38760 6185 27880 26430 13570 19350 54000 50630 14690 13040 12460 19130 60680 7470 25860 1296 13160 10290 12510 61610 8549 87200 52770 7436 16470 52990 21080 18060 18440 11630 13450 39420 8359 28250 54060 38560 13360 51590 14340 22440 52740 17450 9599 15330 15870 12820 19870 17140 11730 12100 14360 46700 18920 22700 12340 17740 6519 17760 45640 20590 11210 16930 15750 20290 13200 12760 18080 43860 20900 13400 9129 12210 33900 18580 100000 16820 11380 17380 12960 37510 16760 12110 37010 23460 11080 25450 13110 35230 14430 22620 35720 12240 17570 11710 16140 41310 20440 15940 13790 17610 45480 16340 15640 42980 21060 15300 10310 17850 6593 16660 28350 17670 15560 16570 42980 23690 70590 30720 44730 20840 136300 64030 10320 38000 15560 15110 19730 87410 36710 24020 7624 7143 99300 18040 41880 6674 13350 11740 28540 8691 9512 17480 25710 18690 26970 12040 39780 10090 10510 6060 25640 17950 17250 52490 19210 52440 24100 27270 17830 9840 14690 24750 15700 14420 58520 23610 7471 27070 35310 10130 15440 36330 46510 16860 55240 21130 9980 43310 846 20480 12860 16900 14930 33210 33390 31270 13510 26590 23060 49040 23500 13160 20540 28030 41390 10750 24430 6361 40570 12370 13060 9534 46290 16680 11130 17740 14420 4422 5675 47270 58180 14540 10100 15600 47190 12970 15730 89770 860 38160 25520 34340 17040 13190 9990 16750 16060 39870 7896 11630 18290 11780 48300 14490 11740 15540 18260 17990 17060 27340 35780 26340 39930 14550 21070 33230 19630 14740 12260 10960 49080 33850 41650 15210 13300 48690 12380 29710 20630 39280 30670 40140 12860 11380 13220 27090 19170 15310 10400 18000 13540 28020 17210 16350 15260 6077 46550 40280 14320 11350 19840 14200 58880 46550 39930 44160 36460 19810 14970 14250 17110 11520 16570 17560 5243 13960 18120 12450 25080 11680 17780 26670 58610 56830 14650 19620 49090 13830 20920 44030 13170 12460 21100 14950 23120 17690 13150 27200
2021-11-14 22470 23190 7219 14510 18890 11470 21030 18150 7688 35160 19590 20800 17420 27680 9211 33990 54650 46120 11210 29430 21320 18970 26650 27720 54410 36530 180000 16600 31570 24180 11990 12810 49630 9688 57000 16010 93130 20390 15060 46100 12120 23470 36990 73180 14240 43270 15140 15620 16360 17670 33410 29870 34730 13760 27390 15880 17950 56980 17150 25900 14280 20360 38990 6236 28030 26550 13660 19420 54140 50860 14780 13120 12520 19200 60830 7510 25970 1307 13210 10360 12550 61930 8602 87450 52970 7475 16550 53110 21180 18130 18520 11680 13510 39530 8372 28310 54200 38830 13400 51760 14410 22490 52850 17520 9674 15430 15910 12900 19970 17190 11770 12140 14400 46900 18990 22780 12380 17830 6547 17840 45760 20660 11250 16990 15810 20410 13270 12790 18160 44020 20980 13420 9173 12250 34040 18640 100200 16930 11460 17440 13010 37590 16820 12180 37090 23550 11130 25500 13160 35310 14500 22740 35820 12310 17630 11740 16250 41420 20530 15980 13830 17720 45610 16410 15750 43080 21140 15330 10360 17940 6618 16770 28420 17740 15610 16640 43090 23780 70660 30790 44800 20890 136500 64190 10360 38080 15600 15160 19820 87560 36830 24100 7660 7187 99500 18080 42000 6697 13440 11790 28620 8751 9583 17580 25810 18770 27080 12070 39950 10150 10600 6114 25750 18110 17310 52660 19280 52520 24240 27360 17880 9900 14750 24830 15780 14500 58660 23690 7513 27220 35390 10170 15490 36450 46740 16880 55370 21210 10020 43390 864 20530 12920 16940 15020 33300 33550 31390 13590 26680 23130 49150 23600 13200 20610 28080 41520 10790 24540 6391 40680 12420 13100 9574 46430 16750 11180 17790 14490 4441 5713 47360 58300 14610 10150 15710 47340 13010 15800 89990 867 38360 25600 34460 17110 13220 10020 16850 16130 39990 7944 11670 18390 11820 48430 14550 11780 15630 18330 18130 17130 27440 35970 26440 40000 14600 21200 33310 19710 14840 12310 11010 49240 33960 41780 15290 13360 48830 12470 29830 20670 39460 30780 40250 12890 11420 13310 27220 19240 15400 10470 18050 13600 28090 17270 16440 15330 6107 46630 40350 14380 11430 19980 14270 59040 46650 40010 44260 36570 19880 15030 14340 17200 11560 16630 17640 5286 14000 18170 12520 25180 11740 17890 26720 58780 57050 14720 19710 49230 13890 20980 44140 13230 12520 21170 15040 23210 17750 13170 27310
2021-11-15 22590 23330 7252 14570 18950 11510 21130 18230 7743 35300 19720 20870 17480 27790 9254 34070 54840 46280 11270 29550 21410 19050 26800 27820 54650 36630 180500 16650 31650 24250 12040 12860 49770 9735 57300 16080 93320 20470 15130 46220 12150 23570 37130 73440 14310 43390 15200 15660 16410 17720 33530 29960 34840 13810 27450 15920 18020 57370 17200 26030 14330 20440 39210 6285 28180 26670 13750 19500 54420 51140 14870 13200 12580 19270 61060 7550 26090 1320 13270 10430 12600 62250 8655 87800 53190 7512 16630 53230 21280 18200 18590 11760 13570 39650 8384 28370 54390 39100 13440 52010 14540 22580 53000 17590 9745 15520 15950 12980 20070 17280 11820 12190 14440 47090 19080 22880 12430 17920 6575 17910 45870 20720 11290 17050 15890 20530 13340 12840 18230 44300 21070 13470 9216 12280 34170 18700 100400 17030 11540 17500 13050 37680 16890 12290 37170 23640 11190 25580 13210 35400 14560 22850 35920 12380 17680 11800 16350 41530 20660 16030 13890 17910 45730 16490 15860 43240 21250 15370 10420 18040 6657 16880 28490 17820 15660 16710 43250 23870 70790 30870 44910 20980 137000 64410 10400 38160 15670 15210 19900 87780 36950 24180 7696 7230 99800 18140 42120 6720 13530 11840 28700 8811 9652 17680 25920 18870 27190 12110 40110 10200 10690 6170 25850 18260 17370 52830 19360 52620 24370 27440 17950 9970 14820 24900 15850 14570 58890 23800 7554 27370 35470 10210 15530 36620 46970 16900 55500 21290 10050 43480 882 20580 12980 16980 15110 33420 33710 31510 13700 26760 23200 49260 23690 13250 20680 28150 41660 10840 24640 6421 40810 12480 13150 9615 46630 16820 11230 17840 14550 4460 5751 47480 58470 14680 10200 15820 47520 13040 15870 90310 875 38550 25680 34580 17180 13290 10050 16940 16190 40100 7991 11710 18490 11890 48660 14620 11830 15710 18400 18260 17190 27530 36150 26530 40080 14660 21330 33460 19780 14930 12350 11070 49420 34080 41970 15370 13410 49000 12570 29950 20730 39640 30890 40400 12930 11460 13390 27340 19320 15490 10530 18110 13660 28170 17360 16530 15420 6139 46710 40440 14430 11510 20120 14340 59260 46740 40100 44370 36700 19960 15080 14420 17290 11600 16700 17730 5328 14040 18230 12590 25280 11800 18010 26800 58960 57270 14790 19800 49420 13950 21040 44270 13290 12590 21240 15130 23340 17820 13200 27430
2021-11-16 22730 23460 7283 14630 19010 11560 21230 18310 7816 35430 19850 20920 17560 27890 9296 34160 55010 46430 11320 29660 21500 19120 26950 27920 54860 36720 180900 16710 31720 24310 12080 12900 49900 9765 57600 16150 93490 20550 15200 46340 12190 23670 37270 73680 14360 43510 15260 15710 16470 17760 33610 30050 34920 13860 27520 15960 18090 57680 17250 26180 14390 20530 39420 6326 28330 26780 13830 19570 54610 51390 14940 13270 12630 19340 61310 7592 26210 1333 13330 10490 12650 62550 8705 88040 53390 7544 16710 53350 21370 18260 18660 11850 13620 39760 8395 28430 54540 39360 13480 52180 14670 22650 53130 17660 9807 15620 16000 13050 20170 17340 11860 12260 14490 47290 19150 22980 12470 18010 6602 17990 45970 20770 11340 17110 15960 20650 13420 12870 18320 44540 21150 13520 9259 12320 34300 18760 100700 17130 11620 17560 13100 37760 16960 12400 37250 23720 11240 25660 13260 35500 14610 22960 36020 12440 17730 11860 16450 41640 20760 16070 13940 18070 45860 16560 15960 43340 21350 15400 10490 18130 6687 16990 28550 17900 15710 16780 43420 23950 70910 30940 45000 21040 137300 64590 10450 38240 15740 15270 19990 88000 37070 24260 7730 7271 100000 18190 42240 6747 13610 11890 28780 8871 9716 17800 26030 18980 27290 12140 40270 10250 10770 6230 25940 18400 17430 52990 19450 52730 24490 27530 18030 10040 14890 24980 15920 14630 59080 23900 7597 27500 35550 10240 15580 36750 47170 16930 55630 21360 10090 43570 901 20630 13040 17010 15200 33550 33870 31620 13800 26840 23270 49370 23770 13290 20760 28230 41780 10880 24750 6448 40930 12530 13190 9659 46770 16890 11280 17900 14610 4478 5787 47600 58600 14750 10260 15920 47700 13080 15940 90550 882 38750 25760 34690 17250 13350 10090 17030 16250 40220 8039 11750 18600 11940 48830 14680 11870 15790 18470 18380 17260 27620 36320 26630 40150 14710 21440 33570 19860 15020 12400 11130 49590 34180 42090 15450 13460 49130 12650 30060 20800 39810 31000 40520 12970 11510 13480 27460 19400 15570 10600 18160 13710 28240 17450 16620 15500 6176 46800 40550 14480 11570 20240 14400 59430 46800 40190 44480 36810 20020 15140 14500 17370 11660 16780 17820 5368 14080 18280 12650 25380 11860 18110 26880 59120 57480 14860 19890 49570 14000 21100 44370 13350 12660 21320 15220 23430 17880 13220 27540
2021-11-17 22840 23590 7314 14680 19080 11610 21320 18380 7864 35560 20000 20980 17630 28000 9339 34240 55170 46580 11370 29780 21590 19190 27090 28010 55050 36820 181400 16760 31780 24380 12130 12940 50020 9803 57920 16220 93690 20620 15260 46460 12230 23760 37410 73920 14430 43630 15310 15750 16530 17800 33710 30140 34990 13910 27590 16020 18160 57960 17310 26280 14440 20610 39630 6365 28470 26890 13910 19640 54820 51570 15020 13350 12680 19400 61500 7634 26320 1347 13370 10550 12700 62840 8754 88320 53550 7575 16780 53470 21460 18330 18730 11910 13680 39870 8406 28490 54690 39610 13520 52380 14770 22710 53290 17740 9867 15710 16060 13120 20260 17410 11910 12310 14540 47480 19240 23090 12530 18090 6628 18070 46080 20830 11380 17170 16030 20770 13490 12900 18400 44750 21220 13560 9303 12360 34420 18810 100900 17230 11690 17610 13140 37840 17030 12430 37330 23800 11290 25750 13310 35600 14660 23070 36110 12490 17780 11940 16550 41750 20880 16120 14010 18240 45980 16640 16060 43470 21440 15440 10530 18200 6705 17090 28620 17970 15760 16830 43550 24040 71070 31020 45120 21100 137700 64780 10490 38320 15800 15320 20080 88200 37190 24360 7763 7311 100200 18220 42360 6775 13690 11930 28850 8931 9779 17910 26140 19070 27380 12180 40430 10300 10850 6291 26030 18540 17490 53140 19520 52820 24600 27630 18100 10120 14950 25060 16000 14690 59280 24000 7631 27620 35630 10270 15620 36880 47370 16950 55750 21430 10130 43660 921 20680 13100 17050 15290 33680 34020 31740 13850 26910 23340 49490 23860 13340 20830 28320 41900 10920 24850 6474 41040 12570 13230 9705 46920 16950 11320 17950 14670 4497 5822 47710 58720 14810 10310 16010 47870 13120 16010 90810 889 38950 25840 34800 17320 13400 10120 17120 16310 40340 8086 11790 18680 11990 48990 14750 11920 15870 18540 18500 17320 27710 36490 26720 40230 14770 21550 33670 19930 15110 12440 11190 49730 34290 42230 15520 13510 49250 12730 30170 20900 39960 31100 40650 13010 11560 13570 27580 19470 15660 10660 18220 13770 28310 17530 16710 15580 6214 46890 40670 14530 11640 20370 14470 59650 46920 40280 44590 36920 20090 15190 14570 17460 11700 16850 17900 5408 14130 18340 12720 25480 11920 18210 26960 59320 57700 14930 19970 49730 14060 21150 44470 13410 12730 21390 15310 23560 17940 13240 27650

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-11-11 to 2021-11-17

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-11-10 22191 22559 7069 14265 18595 11365 20610 17830 7569 34603 19134 20519 17164 27222 9040 33740 53792 45410 10981 29015 20938 18618 25972 27270 53814 36109 178463 16389 31319 23875 11737 12631 49235 9575 56000 15663 92531 20048 14709 45735 11954 23000 36348 72035 14004 42816 14892 15427 16120 17554 32958 29465 34238 13533 27125 15715 17749 55429 16905 25351 14018 20049 38020 5990 27370 26025 13237 19132 53374 49735 14396 12758 12265 18898 60242 7356 25514 1280 12953 10034 12419 60530 8367 86226 52080 7293 16230 52607 20743 17815 18169 11501 13239 39066 8316 28077 53508 37659 13272 51109 14047 22215 52344 17257 9331 15027 15746 12543 19536 16869 11604 11985 14301 46096 18660 22267 12202 17442 6426 17545 45257 20386 11048 16743 15535 19914 12979 12625 17868 43381 20616 13303 8990 12100 33430 18383 99497 16451 11096 17170 12786 37222 16533 11883 36801 23135 10884 25275 12979 35016 14215 22238 35374 12005 17379 11648 15753 40938 20082 15803 13695 17195 45086 16123 15247 42626 20724 15225 10136 17420 6459 16261 28131 17465 15404 16402 42670 23390 70266 30463 44505 20653 135456 63585 10203 37744 15424 14930 19456 86946 36319 23776 7505 6997 98706 17882 41503 6620 13038 11555 28283 8507 9262 17194 25386 18404 26568 11947 39239 9914 10181 5901 25276 17400 17043 51896 19006 52163 23615 27028 17683 9630 14473 24549 15474 14169 58026 23427 7284 26515 35047 9990 15261 35837 45697 16778 54797 20880 9861 43039 792 20340 12642 16770 14648 32732 32863 30879 13223 26294 22838 48691 23193 13001 20290 27870 40898 10583 24065 6256 40173 12169 12900 9426 45911 16450 10982 17591 14211 4362 5541 46965 57728 14315 9959 15224 46786 12846 15460 89151 842 37582 25226 33938 16813 13093 9886 16421 15845 39474 7748 11502 18039 11660 47979 14215 11588 15254 18007 17518 16818 27011 35142 26038 39717 14373 20602 32833 19378 14396 12099 10846 48342 33489 41198 14933 13105 48128 12038 29292 20495 38658 30308 39737 12741 11249 12977 26669 18913 15002 10157 17839 13343 27755 16881 16070 14915 6004 46319 39978 14149 11068 19373 13989 58270 46209 39658 43841 36091 19565 14776 13963 16836 11393 16381 17262 5101 13853 17935 12214 24740 11502 17344 26497 58159 56147 14417 19352 48594 13640 20722 43653 12955 12256 20885 14628 22742 17499 13083 26824
2021-11-11 22300 22680 7099 14320 18660 11440 20720 17950 7618 34740 19260 20580 17240 27330 9090 33820 53970 45550 11030 29120 21020 18680 26070 27360 54010 36200 178900 16450 31380 23950 11770 12670 49360 9612 56280 15740 92720 20130 14770 45850 12000 23080 36470 72310 14070 42970 14950 15490 16180 17590 33060 29560 34320 13590 27220 15760 17820 55740 16960 25480 14070 20180 38260 6023 27500 26130 13310 19210 53580 49920 14480 12830 12320 18960 60420 7402 25640 1295 13010 10080 12460 60820 8410 86500 52250 7322 16310 52730 20860 17880 18240 11570 13300 39180 8348 28140 53660 37910 13320 51290 14150 22290 52490 17330 9387 15120 15810 12610 19630 16940 11660 12030 14350 46300 18740 22380 12250 17530 6455 17640 45370 20440 11090 16810 15610 20030 13060 12660 17950 43590 20700 13340 9038 12140 33540 18440 99700 16570 11170 17230 12830 37310 16600 11960 36900 23220 10940 25350 13040 35100 14270 22370 35470 12070 17430 11710 15820 41050 20200 15850 13750 17360 45220 16210 15350 42750 20810 15260 10180 17500 6488 16340 28210 17530 15460 16460 42810 23480 70430 30540 44610 20710 135800 63750 10260 37840 15480 14980 19550 87160 36440 23850 7539 7036 98900 17930 41630 6655 13110 11580 28370 8566 9312 17330 25510 18500 26620 11990 39410 9970 10240 5974 25360 17500 17100 52040 19070 52260 23690 27140 17740 9720 14550 24640 15560 14240 58230 23520 7318 26640 35160 10020 15300 35970 45840 16840 54910 20950 9900 43120 820 20400 12700 16810 14750 32850 33030 31000 13310 26350 22910 48820 23280 13060 20360 27950 41010 10630 24170 6281 40300 12220 12940 9478 46040 16510 11030 17640 14280 4389 5576 47060 57850 14390 10020 15300 46950 12930 15540 89380 850 37800 25300 34060 16880 13140 9920 16520 15910 39650 7802 11560 18120 11700 48130 14290 11640 15330 18080 17650 16860 27100 35300 26140 39810 14430 20730 32940 19460 14450 12150 10910 48500 33600 41340 15010 13160 48260 12100 29410 20580 38800 30420 39860 12780 11310 13070 26790 19000 15100 10210 17900 13410 27830 16970 16160 15000 6072 46400 40090 14210 11110 19490 14060 58450 46320 39760 43960 36190 19630 14830 14050 16920 11430 16450 17330 5139 13900 17990 12290 24840 11570 17430 26570 58300 56450 14470 19460 48750 13690 20800 43740 13010 12320 20960 14700 22870 17560 13130 26960
2021-11-12 22400 22840 7133 14370 18710 11500 20810 18040 7661 34850 19370 20620 17290 27430 9128 33890 54160 45700 11080 29200 21100 18720 26170 27460 54150 36280 179300 16500 31440 24010 11800 12710 49460 9640 56540 15810 92900 20190 14840 45950 12030 23190 36600 72490 14120 43080 14990 15530 16240 17620 33170 29660 34400 13640 27280 15790 17880 56000 17010 25590 14110 20260 38520 6067 27590 26210 13370 19260 53740 50070 14560 12900 12360 19030 60600 7440 25750 1313 13060 10140 12500 61090 8449 86760 52400 7356 16380 52860 20940 17950 18310 11620 13350 39280 8381 28200 53790 38150 13350 51440 14240 22360 52620 17400 9456 15200 15850 12690 19700 17020 11700 12070 14380 46480 18820 22480 12300 17610 6486 17710 45480 20490 11130 16870 15680 20110 13130 12690 18020 43780 20790 13380 9081 12160 33670 18490 99900 16670 11240 17290 12870 37390 16650 12030 36980 23290 10990 25410 13070 35170 14320 22470 35550 12130 17480 11750 15880 41150 20300 15900 13780 17480 45340 16270 15450 42850 20890 15290 10220 17560 6513 16400 28280 17570 15500 16500 42910 23560 70590 30620 44690 20760 136100 63900 10290 37920 15520 15040 19620 87320 36550 23930 7572 7077 99100 17980 41750 6677 13170 11610 28450 8620 9355 17430 25590 18560 26690 12030 39570 10020 10300 6016 25440 17580 17150 52210 19120 52360 23800 27210 17800 9780 14610 24710 15630 14300 58420 23600 7362 26750 35310 10060 15340 36100 46040 16900 55030 21010 9940 43200 848 20440 12760 16830 14840 32950 33180 31110 13390 26430 22960 48930 23370 13100 20440 28020 41120 10670 24260 6313 40390 12270 12980 9519 46170 16560 11080 17680 14340 4404 5612 47160 57940 14460 10070 15360 47090 12980 15600 89600 853 37970 25360 34170 16910 13190 9940 16610 15970 39780 7845 11610 18180 11740 48260 14350 11690 15380 18150 17770 16910 27210 35440 26240 39870 14470 20850 33050 19530 14510 12190 10950 48640 33710 41430 15080 13220 48410 12160 29510 20660 38970 30490 39980 12810 11350 13140 26910 19050 15180 10260 17940 13460 27900 17040 16240 15070 6115 46460 40180 14280 11150 19610 14110 58580 46430 39840 44060 36280 19680 14890 14130 17010 11460 16510 17390 5177 13940 18040 12350 24950 11620 17520 26620 58430 56650 14530 19550 48890 13740 20860 43820 13070 12380 21040 14750 22960 17600 13190 27080
2021-11-13 22490 22960 7162 14420 18760 11560 20910 18130 7700 34960 19480 20660 17340 27520 9168 33960 54290 45840 11120 29270 21170 18770 26250 27550 54290 36350 179600 16550 31490 24080 11840 12760 49560 9663 56770 15880 93060 20250 14890 46040 12070 23280 36700 72660 14170 43190 15040 15570 16290 17650 33250 29750 34460 13690 27340 15820 17940 56180 17050 25680 14160 20340 38750 6103 27690 26280 13410 19300 53890 50210 14640 12970 12400 19080 60720 7478 25860 1331 13110 10200 12530 61340 8488 86960 52540 7387 16450 52980 21020 18000 18370 11660 13400 39380 8410 28260 53900 38360 13390 51600 14340 22410 52730 17470 9516 15280 15890 12750 19760 17080 11740 12110 14410 46650 18880 22570 12320 17690 6515 17780 45580 20540 11160 16920 15750 20170 13190 12710 18090 43950 20870 13410 9124 12190 33780 18540 100000 16770 11310 17340 12910 37460 16700 12100 37060 23350 11040 25470 13110 35240 14370 22570 35620 12180 17530 11790 15940 41250 20390 15940 13810 17610 45460 16340 15540 42950 20960 15310 10250 17620 6536 16470 28350 17610 15550 16540 43010 23640 70730 30690 44760 20790 136300 64030 10330 37990 15560 15090 19700 87460 36650 23990 7603 7115 99300 18020 41850 6702 13220 11640 28520 8674 9397 17540 25670 18630 26750 12060 39730 10060 10350 6061 25520 17660 17190 52360 19170 52440 23900 27300 17860 9850 14670 24770 15690 14350 58570 23680 7390 26830 35440 10090 15370 36220 46200 16950 55140 21080 9970 43280 874 20490 12820 16850 14910 33020 33330 31200 13460 26490 23010 49040 23460 13140 20510 28070 41210 10710 24330 6343 40480 12310 13010 9559 46290 16620 11120 17720 14380 4420 5640 47240 58020 14530 10130 15410 47220 13040 15660 89790 857 38140 25420 34270 16940 13240 9970 16680 16020 39910 7889 11650 18250 11780 48390 14400 11740 15440 18210 17880 16960 27310 35570 26330 39930 14520 20960 33120 19590 14560 12240 11000 48770 33820 41510 15150 13250 48550 12210 29610 20740 39120 30570 40080 12850 11390 13210 27020 19110 15250 10300 17980 13520 27950 17100 16310 15140 6160 46500 40240 14340 11190 19720 14160 58690 46520 39920 44150 36370 19730 14940 14200 17070 11490 16560 17450 5212 13970 18070 12410 25040 11670 17590 26670 58530 56860 14580 19630 49010 13780 20920 43880 13110 12420 21110 14800 23050 17650 13230 27200
2021-11-14 22580 23080 7193 14480 18820 11620 21010 18220 7735 35060 19580 20700 17400 27620 9208 34020 54450 45980 11160 29350 21240 18820 26370 27640 54410 36420 180000 16600 31540 24140 11870 12790 49670 9690 57040 15950 93240 20300 14950 46130 12100 23370 36810 72870 14230 43310 15090 15610 16350 17690 33340 29850 34530 13730 27400 15860 17990 56410 17100 25780 14200 20410 38960 6135 27790 26360 13460 19330 54050 50360 14720 13030 12440 19140 60880 7518 25970 1349 13160 10250 12560 61610 8526 87200 52690 7416 16520 53100 21100 18060 18430 11710 13460 39490 8438 28310 54010 38560 13430 51760 14410 22460 52840 17540 9573 15360 15950 12800 19820 17140 11780 12140 14450 46810 18960 22650 12350 17770 6543 17850 45680 20590 11190 16980 15810 20250 13260 12740 18160 44130 20950 13440 9164 12220 33890 18590 100200 16860 11370 17390 12950 37530 16740 12180 37140 23410 11080 25530 13150 35310 14410 22670 35680 12230 17580 11830 15990 41350 20480 15980 13850 17720 45570 16410 15630 43050 21030 15340 10290 17680 6558 16530 28420 17660 15590 16600 43110 23710 70870 30760 44830 20820 136600 64180 10370 38070 15600 15140 19780 87620 36750 24040 7635 7154 99500 18050 41970 6728 13280 11670 28600 8728 9438 17650 25760 18690 26810 12100 39880 10110 10410 6109 25600 17740 17240 52500 19220 52530 24000 27380 17920 9920 14730 24830 15750 14410 58720 23760 7422 26910 35570 10120 15410 36330 46360 17000 55250 21140 10010 43350 898 20530 12870 16880 14990 33090 33480 31300 13530 26550 23070 49150 23540 13180 20580 28120 41300 10750 24400 6371 40570 12360 13040 9597 46430 16670 11160 17770 14440 4436 5672 47330 58110 14590 10180 15470 47360 13090 15720 90000 862 38320 25480 34370 16970 13280 10000 16770 16080 40040 7932 11700 18330 11810 48520 14460 11790 15490 18280 17990 17000 27400 35690 26420 39980 14560 21060 33200 19660 14620 12280 11050 48890 33920 41610 15220 13290 48680 12260 29700 20810 39270 30650 40190 12880 11430 13290 27130 19170 15330 10340 18030 13570 28010 17150 16390 15200 6206 46550 40310 14400 11220 19840 14220 58800 46630 40000 44250 36470 19780 14980 14270 17140 11520 16610 17500 5247 14000 18120 12470 25140 11730 17670 26730 58650 57080 14640 19710 49140 13820 20970 43960 13160 12470 21190 14850 23130 17700 13280 27310
2021-11-15 22700 23240 7229 14530 18880 11690 21110 18310 7790 35160 19700 20760 17460 27710 9248 34100 54640 46140 11210 29450 21320 18860 26500 27740 54620 36490 180500 16650 31630 24200 11900 12830 49800 9727 57320 16020 93420 20370 15030 46240 12140 23470 36960 73120 14280 43420 15140 15660 16400 17730 33450 29940 34630 13780 27470 15910 18060 56740 17150 25900 14240 20490 39200 6165 27900 26440 13510 19380 54300 50540 14790 13110 12480 19190 61100 7560 26090 1367 13220 10320 12600 61920 8565 87550 52860 7444 16610 53210 21180 18130 18490 11780 13510 39590 8467 28370 54170 38850 13470 51970 14530 22550 52990 17630 9627 15460 16000 12870 19880 17210 11830 12200 14490 46990 19040 22750 12390 17850 6570 17920 45780 20650 11230 17040 15880 20350 13330 12780 18230 44360 21030 13480 9207 12250 34020 18630 100400 16950 11440 17440 12980 37590 16790 12270 37220 23470 11130 25600 13190 35380 14460 22790 35750 12290 17630 11890 16040 41450 20610 16020 13890 17890 45690 16480 15730 43170 21120 15380 10330 17740 6589 16590 28480 17700 15640 16680 43230 23780 71050 30830 44930 20900 137000 64400 10420 38160 15650 15200 19850 87830 36850 24110 7668 7203 99700 18110 42090 6755 13340 11710 28670 8792 9478 17760 25850 18770 26880 12140 40030 10150 10480 6166 25680 17810 17290 52650 19280 52630 24090 27460 17980 9990 14780 24920 15820 14460 58940 23840 7467 27000 35760 10150 15450 36480 46570 17050 55400 21200 10040 43430 926 20580 12920 16910 15080 33210 33640 31400 13620 26640 23120 49250 23630 13220 20650 28190 41410 10790 24500 6398 40710 12400 13080 9639 46620 16720 11210 17810 14510 4453 5713 47440 58240 14670 10240 15530 47540 13150 15780 90270 868 38500 25530 34470 17020 13330 10030 16860 16140 40170 7975 11760 18410 11860 48730 14520 11830 15550 18340 18100 17070 27490 35820 26510 40040 14600 21160 33340 19720 14670 12320 11100 49050 34030 41730 15290 13340 48840 12330 29800 20890 39410 30730 40330 12920 11480 13380 27250 19230 15400 10380 18080 13630 28100 17210 16490 15270 6253 46610 40410 14460 11260 19980 14270 58980 46740 40100 44370 36580 19840 15030 14330 17230 11550 16670 17560 5287 14050 18160 12530 25250 11780 17800 26800 58790 57310 14700 19800 49330 13860 21040 44060 13230 12540 21270 14920 23240 17750 13330 27430
2021-11-16 22820 23380 7257 14580 18940 11760 21200 18400 7852 35270 19830 20810 17520 27810 9289 34180 54770 46300 11250 29550 21400 18910 26600 27840 54800 36560 180900 16710 31690 24270 11940 12870 49910 9757 57600 16090 93620 20430 15090 46350 12170 23560 37090 73310 14330 43540 15180 15700 16460 17770 33550 30040 34710 13830 27540 15950 18120 57020 17190 26000 14280 20570 39410 6205 28000 26510 13550 19420 54510 50740 14870 13180 12520 19240 61320 7603 26200 1386 13270 10380 12640 62200 8604 87840 53050 7472 16690 53330 21270 18200 18550 11830 13560 39700 8495 28440 54310 39140 13510 52140 14640 22620 53120 17710 9680 15540 16050 12940 19940 17270 11880 12250 14530 47150 19120 22850 12440 17940 6596 18000 45870 20710 11260 17110 15950 20440 13400 12820 18300 44570 21110 13520 9247 12280 34150 18670 100700 17050 11500 17490 13020 37650 16840 12350 37300 23520 11170 25660 13240 35450 14500 22900 35830 12340 17670 11930 16090 41550 20710 16070 13930 18040 45810 16560 15820 43280 21220 15410 10380 17800 6618 16660 28550 17750 15690 16750 43350 23850 71260 30900 45020 20940 137300 64580 10460 38250 15700 15250 19930 88020 36960 24210 7700 7246 99900 18160 42210 6783 13400 11730 28740 8853 9519 17870 25940 18850 26940 12180 40180 10190 10530 6224 25750 17890 17330 52810 19340 52720 24180 27540 18050 10060 14840 24990 15900 14510 59120 23920 7513 27090 35950 10180 15480 36600 46760 17100 55520 21270 10080 43520 952 20630 12980 16940 15160 33300 33790 31490 13690 26710 23180 49350 23710 13270 20730 28260 41510 10830 24590 6425 40830 12440 13120 9687 46800 16780 11250 17850 14560 4470 5746 47550 58330 14740 10300 15590 47700 13210 15830 90510 874 38680 25600 34570 17070 13380 10050 16940 16190 40300 8019 11810 18490 11900 48880 14570 11880 15610 18410 18220 17120 27590 35950 26600 40110 14650 21260 33460 19790 14730 12360 11150 49190 34150 41830 15380 13380 48990 12390 29890 20970 39560 30810 40460 12960 11530 13470 27370 19290 15470 10420 18120 13680 28170 17280 16580 15330 6300 46670 40500 14520 11290 20120 14330 59120 46830 40190 44480 36680 19890 15080 14400 17310 11590 16730 17620 5322 14090 18210 12600 25350 11840 17880 26870 58920 57540 14770 19880 49490 13900 21110 44140 13290 12600 21340 14970 23330 17800 13380 27550
2021-11-17 22920 23520 7286 14630 19000 11830 21300 18490 7900 35380 19950 20850 17580 27900 9331 34250 54950 46450 11290 29640 21480 18950 26700 27930 54960 36620 181300 16760 31760 24330 11970 12910 50020 9787 57870 16160 93800 20500 15150 46460 12210 23650 37230 73480 14390 43660 15220 15750 16510 17810 33660 30140 34800 13880 27600 16000 18180 57280 17240 26110 14320 20650 39610 6236 28100 26580 13600 19450 54720 50900 14940 13260 12550 19290 61500 7646 26320 1404 13330 10420 12680 62500 8644 88160 53210 7500 16770 53450 21340 18270 18610 11880 13610 39800 8521 28500 54440 39390 13550 52310 14740 22690 53250 17790 9734 15620 16100 12990 20000 17340 11930 12280 14570 47320 19200 22960 12490 18020 6623 18070 45970 20760 11290 17180 16020 20530 13470 12850 18380 44770 21190 13560 9289 12320 34260 18710 100900 17140 11560 17540 13060 37720 16890 12420 37390 23570 11220 25730 13280 35520 14540 23010 35890 12390 17720 11980 16140 41650 20830 16110 13970 18180 45930 16630 15910 43400 21300 15440 10410 17860 6645 16720 28610 17800 15740 16800 43460 23930 71460 30970 45110 20980 137700 64760 10500 38340 15750 15310 20000 88200 37060 24280 7731 7288 100100 18200 42320 6812 13460 11760 28820 8918 9560 17980 26030 18910 27000 12220 40340 10240 10580 6274 25830 17960 17380 52950 19400 52810 24270 27630 18120 10130 14910 25060 15970 14560 59300 24010 7561 27160 36120 10210 15520 36730 46950 17140 55650 21330 10110 43600 980 20670 13030 16970 15240 33390 33950 31590 13760 26790 23230 49450 23790 13310 20800 28330 41580 10870 24660 6452 40940 12480 13150 9734 46970 16830 11290 17890 14620 4486 5778 47660 58420 14810 10360 15640 47870 13270 15890 90740 879 38870 25650 34670 17110 13430 10080 17020 16240 40430 8063 11850 18550 11940 49040 14630 11930 15660 18470 18330 17180 27680 36080 26700 40180 14690 21360 33570 19850 14780 12400 11210 49340 34250 41920 15450 13420 49130 12440 29990 21050 39690 30900 40590 12990 11580 13550 27480 19350 15550 10460 18170 13730 28240 17330 16660 15390 6350 46720 40590 14580 11320 20230 14390 59270 46950 40280 44590 36790 19940 15120 14470 17390 11620 16790 17680 5358 14130 18250 12660 25450 11900 17950 26930 59040 57770 14830 19970 49650 13930 21160 44210 13350 12660 21420 15020 23420 17850 13430 27660

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.