COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-11-30 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-11-30

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-11-30

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-08-312021-08-302021-07-082021-09-142021-09-262021-08-26 -- --2021-08-242021-09-012021-10-172021-09-272021-10-092021-10-112021-10-052021-07-082021-07-082021-07-042021-09-262021-07-062021-10-112021-10-032021-10-122021-10-082021-07-122021-07-0712-292021-09-1412-272021-07-082021-10-082021-10-032021-05-102021-11-192021-01-012021-07-072021-07-072021-11-152021-10-102021-07-072021-07-072021-10-122021-11-192021-07-072021-10-102021-07-062021-10-082021-07-072021-07-052021-07-072021-07-062021-10-112021-10-04 --2021-07-082021-10-062021-10-202021-10-062021-07-072021-08-292021-07-07 --2021-10-102021-10-102021-11-092021-10-122021-10-102021-10-092021-10-03 --2021-10-14 --2021-10-112021-10-042021-08-222021-08-242021-11-152021-10-252021-09-092021-10-182021-08-302021-08-102021-10-132021-07-022021-07-072021-10-112021-07-072021-07-072021-10-122021-10-062021-10-122021-09-302021-09-192021-10-032021-10-042021-08-132021-07-072021-11-172021-11-162021-07-072021-08-162021-06-212021-11-172021-08-292021-10-172021-10-102021-08-18 --2021-11-142021-10-052021-06-132021-10-052021-08-222021-07-062021-10-082021-10-052021-11-15 --2021-10-02 --2021-07-092021-07-072021-11-172021-07-062021-08-102021-08-25 --2021-10-052021-08-132021-08-292021-09-082021-11-172021-10-112021-10-122021-10-15 --2021-08-23 --2021-10-112021-10-112021-07-072021-07-08 --2021-11-162021-07-062021-10-052021-11-172021-07-072021-09-132021-07-092021-10-112021-10-042021-07-07 --2021-07-052021-11-17 --2021-07-082021-09-162021-07-072021-10-062021-10-312021-07-072021-11-092021-10-112021-10-07 --2021-06-232021-08-232021-10-04 --2021-11-152021-07-072021-07-102021-09-172021-10-112021-07-072021-11-172021-10-0612-272021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-01-03 --2021-07-082021-10-042021-07-21 --12-262021-10-122021-10-122021-10-10 --2021-07-082021-08-102021-11-192021-11-182021-10-1112-082021-07-08 --2021-10-12 --2021-11-16 --2021-07-072021-08-252021-07-07 --2021-10-102021-11-012021-09-072021-11-172021-11-162021-07-032021-10-042021-07-302021-10-122021-08-162021-08-26 --2021-10-042021-07-052021-11-192021-10-112021-08-222021-09-212021-10-122021-10-102021-10-112021-10-112021-09-132021-10-042021-10-122021-10-112021-07-072021-09-272021-10-052021-07-072021-10-162021-06-222021-10-132021-07-072021-06-222021-10-052021-11-192021-01-012021-10-092021-07-062021-11-192021-10-102021-10-092021-10-062021-10-112021-08-232021-09-112021-10-11 --2021-11-162021-07-052021-10-132021-06-282021-07-082021-10-082021-09-142021-11-17 --2021-10-11 --2021-10-102021-07-072021-07-062021-07-0612-232021-10-112021-06-282021-11-082021-11-162021-07-0807-212021-11-082021-10-112021-07-062021-10-072021-08-182021-10-09 --2021-11-172021-10-11 --2021-10-202021-10-082021-09-262021-08-232021-10-10 -- --2021-10-092021-10-102021-10-102021-06-272021-10-112021-07-072021-07-072021-11-172021-10-202021-10-102021-09-132021-10-062021-11-142021-08-252021-10-012021-07-062021-10-032021-09-272021-10-072021-07-052021-10-112021-11-172021-11-172021-09-262021-10-102021-07-072021-11-132021-11-16 -- --2021-07-06 --2021-10-112021-11-192021-07-072021-11-172021-07-07 --2021-10-11 --2021-07-072021-09-27 --2021-10-112021-10-10 --2021-07-062021-07-072021-07-092021-07-062021-07-072021-10-102021-07-07 -- --2021-09-292021-07-072021-10-102021-10-082021-08-252021-07-072021-10-052021-08-25 --2021-10-112021-07-072021-07-072021-10-112021-10-112021-11-192021-06-292021-10-10 --2021-07-072021-07-062021-11-172021-11-162021-10-06 --2021-10-052021-10-052021-07-05
Peak daily increment 179 225 51 98 123 88 97 199 136 120 83 204 68 93 260 276 70 139 154 112 287 119 378 177 1250 89 157 159 126 76 208 42 484 107 478 124 92 175 68 120 265 619 105 258 94 72 97 74 161 249 177 159 100 66 413 115 190 100 254 68 166 192 202 98 368 99 125 109 567 69 150 22 102 78 72 714 103 606 377 48 104 230 123 94 98 87 83 170 64 202 400 323 83 272 137 184 207 133 81 116 183 140 108 112 95 157 296 93 161 114 33 145 105 67 110 128 185 88 171 420 121 72 104 70 156 941 108 69 113 163 166 230 125 70 157 87 152 79 157 143 146 97 151 165 82 90 147 197 107 133 177 71 137 164 120 189 84 139 112 246 144 316 311 301 117 705 284 213 98 99 727 137 140 42 442 96 233 51 164 106 124 81 172 274 115 197 99 75 184 155 111 384 113 155 190 141 164 100 231 136 107 622 176 56 291 226 47 91 195 270 110 264 131 46 255 22 131 145 57 113 197 283 207 109 104 169 128 105 77 124 289 267 57 41 213 75 69 49 234 116 67 78 48 253 255 94 83 132 195 80 105 482 25 257 109 277 202 119 62 89 367 64 142 84 470 128 88 178 83 303 202 152 243 104 152 143 141 104 79 91 243 339 199 111 201 428 98 168 129 270 329 219 70 101 116 150 114 78 144 105 134 226 287 78 160 352 191 158 312 195 144 73 91 102 192 50 158 94 101 207 145 138 382 632 149 141 243 96 185 99 83 105 108 116 93 138
Days since peak 91 92 145 77 65 96 98 90 44 64 52 50 56 145 145 149 65 147 50 58 49 53 141 146 336 77 338 145 53 58 204 11 333 146 146 15 51 146 146 49 11 146 51 147 53 146 148 146 147 50 57 145 55 41 55 146 93 146 51 51 21 49 51 52 58 47 50 57 100 98 15 36 82 43 92 112 48 151 146 50 146 146 49 55 49 61 72 58 57 109 146 13 14 146 106 162 13 93 44 51 104 16 56 170 56 100 147 53 56 15 59 144 146 13 147 112 97 56 109 93 83 13 50 49 46 99 50 50 146 145 14 147 56 13 146 78 144 50 57 146 148 13 145 75 146 55 30 146 21 50 54 160 99 57 15 146 143 74 50 146 13 55 338 146 145 146 331 145 57 132 339 49 49 51 145 112 11 12 50 357 145 49 14 146 97 146 51 29 84 13 14 150 57 123 49 106 96 57 148 11 50 100 70 49 51 50 50 78 57 49 50 146 64 56 146 45 161 48 146 161 56 11 333 52 147 11 51 52 55 50 99 80 50 14 148 48 155 145 53 77 13 50 51 146 147 147 342 50 155 22 14 145 497 22 50 147 54 104 52 13 50 41 53 65 99 51 52 51 51 156 50 146 146 13 41 51 78 55 16 97 60 147 58 64 54 148 50 13 13 65 51 146 17 14 147 50 11 146 13 146 50 146 64 50 51 147 146 144 147 146 51 146 62 146 51 53 97 146 56 97 50 146 146 50 50 11 154 51 146 147 13 14 55 56 56 148
Last total 24907 25066 7839 15082 20091 12869 23295 20631 8345 37852 22091 21857 19493 29922 10097 35401 58083 48218 11718 31903 23190 20105 28359 29620 59029 38905 188223 17810 32677 25451 12635 13484 51931 10358 62862 17455 96360 22320 16223 48615 13106 24966 40515 77265 15471 46890 16294 16494 17564 18324 35067 31819 35829 15172 29339 16996 19881 60648 17724 27929 15419 22969 42728 6511 30365 28733 15008 21779 57881 54594 15748 14655 13519 20431 65023 7979 28516 1448 14218 10633 13601 68551 9619 92119 55209 7926 18374 56316 22778 19202 19498 12641 14479 41893 9114 30017 56712 43808 14893 54972 15993 23414 56087 18753 10567 17127 17119 14585 22087 18040 12930 13316 15376 50543 20344 24758 14102 20087 6928 20612 47940 21916 12203 18306 17599 22523 14947 13583 19714 47924 22767 14619 10103 12953 35750 20062 104228 18674 12455 18655 13733 39826 19496 14939 39206 24619 12144 27346 14497 37593 15576 24580 37761 13560 18266 13442 17617 43888 22256 17048 14588 19355 48233 18093 17540 45648 23436 16150 10920 18724 7532 18433 30193 19145 16925 18060 46099 25771 73572 32118 47499 22116 142382 67272 12053 40531 16896 16151 22019 91599 39034 26386 8574 7942 103675 19109 45496 7564 14823 12389 30810 10159 10360 20797 28597 21066 27830 12739 43212 11558 11601 7153 26991 20137 18943 55058 20626 54645 25697 30192 18792 11952 15727 26982 17952 15735 61640 25604 8261 29134 37828 10840 16501 38399 49359 18036 58149 22595 10661 45021 926 22136 14621 17483 16062 35350 37525 34171 15021 27540 25133 51596 24709 14230 22988 29388 43821 11466 27428 7065 42786 13474 13760 10854 48870 17698 12256 19541 15759 5115 6370 49946 60758 15629 11025 16782 49857 14223 17402 94047 1031 42465 26994 36550 18121 14205 10907 19088 17367 43965 9295 12583 20215 12492 51067 15448 13114 17651 19356 19904 18213 28364 38739 28945 42347 16127 22745 34992 21028 15644 13471 11997 51375 35770 44487 16841 14479 50965 13526 32167 22791 41801 32600 42288 14013 13132 15785 29707 20826 17464 11697 19621 14673 30307 18815 18546 16258 8040 48841 42761 16218 12113 21865 16022 62174 48616 42491 47896 38642 21165 16055 16461 19529 12550 18260 19766 5950 14774 19098 13335 26608 13175 19776 28504 61902 63900 16221 21838 52100 15198 23607 46103 14608 13841 22980 16361 26270 18596 14194 29138
Last daily increment 80 88 43 32 70 47 179 169 38 197 161 52 181 167 53 90 259 136 26 191 166 60 121 119 373 198 436 64 55 71 7 29 118 53 319 104 179 123 61 168 84 39 200 293 77 304 69 70 91 51 112 51 106 84 135 61 158 182 41 96 122 146 336 19 144 153 93 190 278 270 58 103 77 81 173 36 180 17 25 38 53 554 70 320 167 36 122 277 142 66 100 63 38 151 50 115 159 263 94 197 89 34 213 97 75 118 71 94 138 52 72 71 34 183 62 112 104 172 25 163 171 79 74 73 103 123 122 45 103 255 76 108 39 37 130 91 211 93 90 74 53 216 156 74 146 73 53 119 104 146 94 97 118 118 60 96 126 176 110 83 26 85 192 88 96 143 180 41 41 88 28 101 173 81 88 71 157 139 153 99 208 81 297 197 140 222 69 72 177 287 152 198 55 50 262 41 258 44 89 6 146 70 62 167 153 158 72 35 257 90 20 40 24 131 96 187 85 189 29 254 64 148 47 101 133 89 186 89 51 160 153 42 71 100 190 68 184 76 39 101 3 92 113 37 53 128 331 229 40 68 150 189 61 68 164 72 49 37 186 45 112 84 39 82 143 88 91 99 78 40 25 160 156 57 41 82 169 53 97 195 6 225 111 156 68 84 91 175 69 265 111 40 118 43 197 78 118 159 69 101 80 76 147 211 202 102 152 139 90 45 74 45 178 119 194 107 79 155 63 217 142 86 130 160 67 117 163 153 115 121 85 92 89 164 122 157 37 111 175 167 125 62 67 152 163 110 168 219 163 65 71 173 138 68 98 148 54 57 58 62 100 113 140 106 176 383 98 167 187 109 180 113 81 80 78 98 190 41 82 114
Last week 583 581 245 194 425 354 871 897 177 1045 883 365 884 825 372 559 1352 758 167 1010 733 411 597 650 1706 1002 2751 364 361 437 232 217 689 221 2070 546 1010 695 416 904 437 555 1327 1527 411 1401 394 339 460 198 583 578 488 550 742 331 754 1391 199 619 501 776 1560 141 721 826 506 918 1326 1472 394 647 412 446 1317 147 923 66 310 192 375 2760 402 1653 892 196 659 1318 613 353 469 330 288 872 248 597 927 1735 500 1034 454 251 1190 517 387 620 373 565 732 353 371 422 338 1115 403 673 633 872 150 888 886 508 388 472 664 790 633 251 570 1257 609 473 353 233 699 601 1346 730 410 472 295 1004 868 798 824 388 305 724 461 799 415 611 722 563 248 576 649 1042 541 405 184 453 949 488 650 923 876 236 237 390 330 592 729 582 466 470 1005 802 815 509 1095 381 1942 961 723 1023 381 328 812 1465 818 900 365 263 1387 349 1383 260 529 160 837 504 349 1057 845 763 363 203 1333 513 331 235 372 816 498 977 449 858 561 1203 312 725 354 713 687 474 1045 565 276 782 767 238 388 755 964 372 1040 406 204 587 20 551 577 177 329 746 1546 1172 441 340 730 988 431 354 923 401 697 216 1098 222 660 436 205 482 815 399 397 560 487 223 182 804 869 247 247 444 868 310 590 1250 26 1383 515 789 342 319 377 835 455 1348 539 261 580 222 921 359 558 823 352 702 429 377 1002 1057 997 603 677 641 463 279 418 251 945 615 971 575 432 800 488 1019 734 722 656 729 380 581 876 859 612 781 449 544 407 845 672 793 327 603 851 865 679 310 627 706 976 601 992 1278 865 496 385 892 895 368 541 765 313 272 323 332 617 581 721 664 1114 2139 613 759 1041 490 991 647 487 464 537 505 1055 263 357 613
Previous peak date07-2107-2112-272021-07-062021-07-0607-2112-2212-2607-2112-2112-2212-2712-0812-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-07-072021-07-0611-0212-2110-0712-2211-0212-2710-1310-1312-072021-01-0710-1511-1311-0212-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2811-0212-2512-212021-07-0712-2212-3012-3010-2712-0710-2812-2612-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-21 --11-0212-222021-08-1012-252021-07-0712-222021-07-0612-2912-212021-07-0707-2107-2112-26 --12-292021-07-0612-2712-2912-2411-0212-272021-07-0712-2712-2712-212021-07-0612-2112-212021-07-062021-01-022021-02-2510-0110-1412-2712-0712-2607-2107-2112-2707-2112-242021-08-1007-2112-2712-2111-0907-212021-07-0607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2112-2512-2112-222021-01-06 --07-2112-2612-2712-2207-2112-2512-182021-07-072021-07-062021-07-042021-07-0707-2112-2712-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-272021-07-0712-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2212-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-222021-07-042021-08-2512-2812-3012-2212-2612-272021-01-0107-2112-28 --12-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2110-2709-2912-292021-01-0611-0211-0212-2712-272021-07-0711-0212-2209-2812-2712-2212-212021-07-0711-022021-01-0212-222021-07-052021-07-07 --12-212021-08-0912-2112-2212-2112-2612-3107-2112-2212-2712-06 --12-0712-282021-07-0611-022021-07-0712-2712-0612-2707-212021-08-092021-07-0710-2612-2612-2107-2111-0112-212021-07-072021-07-042021-07-052021-07-0712-272021-07-062021-01-0111-022021-07-0811-0210-22 --12-2712-2812-2607-212021-01-062021-07-0711-0212-0611-0212-2912-212021-07-072021-01-0512-2207-2112-0612-2812-212021-07-0610-1912-1010-1112-1310-1812-3012-282021-07-0712-252021-01-262021-01-0211-0212-2910-3107-212021-08-0912-3112-2912-2211-02 --12-3012-2512-2512-2107-2112-2112-2712-282021-07-072021-08-092021-01-0412-2211-0907-2112-2112-2612-212021-07-072021-07-0712-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-252021-07-0712-2207-212021-07-0712-272021-07-0412-212021-07-0812-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2510-182021-06-2212-262021-08-102021-01-0312-272021-07-0612-2612-2112-1912-2212-222021-07-0712-062021-08-1012-2112-2712-2112-2612-0812-2611-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2512-2212-2712-2612-202021-08-0907-2111-0212-0707-212021-07-0612-2712-2210-1612-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2712-272021-01-0112-2812-2512-3112-272021-07-062021-07-0811-02
Previous peak daily increment 616 365 61 115 105 295 144 84 119 260 157 110 171 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 152 144 271 233 262 426 1226 75 166 98 95 58 234 50 363 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 1197 107 508 94 186 62 122 160 211 137 102 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 111 303 294 268 65 197 270 273 82 87 71 121 1272 83 243 35 115 94 285 34 553 288 53 181 598 151 140 189 72 86 246 27 206 248 187 118 322 226 710 536 308 60 135 383 87 160 106 191 65 235 204 102 163 147 117 56 164 593 273 97 74 475 90 73 94 687 150 125 56 82 274 123 1766 104 56 180 92 451 135 34 377 219 84 201 57 401 172 103 338 104 106 136 120 476 101 159 73 203 442 57 116 452 156 83 248 134 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 153 428 107 1449 479 113 456 79 230 111 480 273 200 90 47 2237 92 419 40 71 298 79 62 139 186 110 213 302 361 81 62 191 105 116 2429 105 723 190 212 192 83 93 137 105 51 1007 105 58 203 228 77 96 277 322 121 1343 158 68 257 125 44 108 230 154 343 354 43 150 174 623 297 81 176 459 286 52 203 66 194 139 65 96 198 80 85 122 174 38 25 406 450 81 152 123 403 65 131 573 209 244 167 97 226 111 115 69 345 92 42 86 72 876 95 76 123 92 107 102 115 247 293 450 131 156 219 94 77 112 149 243 138 242 66 69 206 105 331 189 270 181 172 83 109 139 138 352 108 44 138 122 360 138 143 101 63 559 151 97 110 120 83 250 329 449 390 227 259 138 119 154 65 154 87 70 307 166 42 376 74 115 217 319 265 83 148 430 106 159 377 106 115 176 95 187 120 74 594
Low between peaks 0 -1 -3 24 40 0 -26 5 -11 2 -7 -16 -8 3 -2 9 -2 -28 51 54 -14 -12 9 3 303 -1 55 -10 0 -14 17 2 23 -8 31 -4 -5 -39 -11 1 -1 -18 -8 -8 38 -16 -1 3 3 1 8 -18 -6 -64 5 -9 2 -2 -1 -7 -11 21 -3 129 31 0 35 -11 -4 -9 1 25 2 -33 -1 -13 -20 16 -8 -4 -11 43 1 -7 41 2 -3 11 2 -29 -14 -4 -48 -3 -6 -2 -3 49 -3 -12 -2 -5 30 -1 -5 1 -18 -6 0 -80 -12 1 0 -4 0 4 -5 1 -7 19 32 75 -7 -8 -2 -8 -25 1 -27 -25 27 -5 1 -12 -2 -17 5 -1 -8 -20 -9 -1 33 59 -27 1 -1 12 3 -2 -7 -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -12 -3 27 21 2 -5 41 120 -18 35 -8 58 7 -22 0 27 1 -45 11 31 2 -3 6 5 -15 0 0 1 -11 54 15 38 4 2 8 -8 39 -3 -7 -6 -7 5 -6 57 88 22 41 -3 111 -4 5 50 1 6 1 1 3 1 5 108 37 0 0 -8 1 49 -52 -13 -2 1 0 17 3 0 1 -6 0 -2 0 -14 -8 2 -1 -4 -4 41 -44 3 -6 23 -28 4 -3 -10 -2 -3 -12 58 3 -5 -4 -7 -11 35 42 -10 2 -2 -3 -17 -2 -6 -40 -13 27 1 -1 118 4 85 -7 25 1 -4 -13 -41 3 -9 7 30 -5 -3 -4 -9 2 -6 -11 1 5 0 -3 1 16 -8 -23 -4 -6 -4 4 -5 1 -7 17 -2 1 -4 -2 -11 7 5 -37 -9 -5 -69 0 -20 -2 -5 2 1 44 35 -48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-12-01 to 2021-12-07

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-11-30 24907 25066 7839 15082 20091 12869 23295 20631 8345 37852 22091 21857 19493 29922 10097 35401 58083 48218 11718 31903 23190 20105 28359 29620 59029 38905 188223 17810 32677 25451 12635 13484 51931 10358 62862 17455 96360 22320 16223 48615 13106 24966 40515 77265 15471 46890 16294 16494 17564 18324 35067 31819 35829 15172 29339 16996 19881 60648 17724 27929 15419 22969 42728 6511 30365 28733 15008 21779 57881 54594 15748 14655 13519 20431 65023 7979 28516 1448 14218 10633 13601 68551 9619 92119 55209 7926 18374 56316 22778 19202 19498 12641 14479 41893 9114 30017 56712 43808 14893 54972 15993 23414 56087 18753 10567 17127 17119 14585 22087 18040 12930 13316 15376 50543 20344 24758 14102 20087 6928 20612 47940 21916 12203 18306 17599 22523 14947 13583 19714 47924 22767 14619 10103 12953 35750 20062 104228 18674 12455 18655 13733 39826 19496 14939 39206 24619 12144 27346 14497 37593 15576 24580 37761 13560 18266 13442 17617 43888 22256 17048 14588 19355 48233 18093 17540 45648 23436 16150 10920 18724 7532 18433 30193 19145 16925 18060 46099 25771 73572 32118 47499 22116 142382 67272 12053 40531 16896 16151 22019 91599 39034 26386 8574 7942 103675 19109 45496 7564 14823 12389 30810 10159 10360 20797 28597 21066 27830 12739 43212 11558 11601 7153 26991 20137 18943 55058 20626 54645 25697 30192 18792 11952 15727 26982 17952 15735 61640 25604 8261 29134 37828 10840 16501 38399 49359 18036 58149 22595 10661 45021 926 22136 14621 17483 16062 35350 37525 34171 15021 27540 25133 51596 24709 14230 22988 29388 43821 11466 27428 7065 42786 13474 13760 10854 48870 17698 12256 19541 15759 5115 6370 49946 60758 15629 11025 16782 49857 14223 17402 94047 1031 42465 26994 36550 18121 14205 10907 19088 17367 43965 9295 12583 20215 12492 51067 15448 13114 17651 19356 19904 18213 28364 38739 28945 42347 16127 22745 34992 21028 15644 13471 11997 51375 35770 44487 16841 14479 50965 13526 32167 22791 41801 32600 42288 14013 13132 15785 29707 20826 17464 11697 19621 14673 30307 18815 18546 16258 8040 48841 42761 16218 12113 21865 16022 62174 48616 42491 47896 38642 21165 16055 16461 19529 12550 18260 19766 5950 14774 19098 13335 26608 13175 19776 28504 61902 63900 16221 21838 52100 15198 23607 46103 14608 13841 22980 16361 26270 18596 14194 29138
2021-12-01 25170 25180 7877 15100 20160 12940 23450 20760 8424 38020 22240 21920 19650 30060 10150 35450 58300 48410 11750 32020 23300 20170 28470 29730 59270 39130 188800 17880 32770 25530 12680 13520 52130 10400 63160 17540 96630 22430 16290 48720 13170 25060 40640 77520 15550 47160 16360 16550 17640 18380 35190 31920 35900 15340 29450 17070 20050 61010 17760 28140 15490 23090 42970 6534 30620 28880 15100 21930 58110 54890 15810 14760 13560 20500 65310 8009 28670 1448 14320 10690 13640 69060 9681 92450 55400 7958 18480 56640 22880 19310 19570 12700 14590 42030 9154 30120 56890 44150 14980 55240 16080 23540 56280 18830 10630 17240 17180 14650 22210 18100 13000 13380 15430 50750 20490 24890 14200 20270 6953 20780 48070 21990 12270 18380 17700 22650 15050 13640 19810 48200 22870 14680 10160 12990 35860 20160 104500 18790 12520 18730 13780 39990 19620 15070 39330 24690 12200 27450 14570 37740 15650 24690 37880 13660 18310 13560 17710 44050 22360 17110 14680 19390 48390 18190 17650 45840 23590 16220 10960 18780 7572 18530 30360 19230 17010 18150 46280 25900 73830 32200 47660 22220 142800 67550 12180 40730 16970 16210 22160 91770 39170 26430 8631 7991 104000 19180 45700 7610 14910 12420 30940 10240 10420 20990 28750 21270 27890 12780 43430 11680 11660 7301 27040 20270 19120 55210 20730 54820 25740 30440 18860 12080 15780 27100 18070 15810 61850 25710 8312 29260 38010 10890 16580 38540 49610 18100 58310 22680 10700 45130 931 22230 14720 17520 16120 35510 37560 34340 15160 27620 25250 51740 24780 14290 23130 29500 43940 11510 27700 7104 42980 13540 13800 10930 49070 17760 12320 19660 15840 5150 6408 50190 60930 15720 11070 16860 50050 14290 17500 94430 1039 42750 27090 36670 18180 14260 10990 19300 17440 44190 9378 12680 20370 12550 51240 15520 13230 17790 19420 20020 18270 28430 38910 29140 42510 16210 22850 35090 21110 15700 13540 12050 51490 35880 44660 16940 14550 51130 13570 32390 22920 41930 32710 42430 14080 13230 15950 29880 20920 17590 11770 19710 14740 30440 18970 18680 16370 8145 48970 42880 16340 12160 22060 16130 62490 48800 42660 48110 38710 21240 16120 16620 19710 12610 18370 19890 5958 14820 19190 13390 26670 13270 19900 28560 62100 64270 16320 21960 52270 15310 23830 46270 14690 13920 23130 16450 26680 18650 14250 29250
2021-12-02 25340 25350 7893 15110 20230 13060 23610 20850 8479 38120 22340 21990 19790 30140 10180 35520 58410 48560 11820 32140 23360 20220 28630 29840 59520 39290 189200 17970 32840 25600 12730 13580 52280 10450 63440 17600 96840 22490 16370 48820 13170 25150 40640 77780 15610 47350 16430 16590 17680 18430 35290 32080 35980 15470 29490 17130 20190 61310 17790 28300 15500 23250 43070 6567 30800 29010 15160 22030 58320 55150 15880 14870 13610 20570 65550 8061 28770 1458 14390 10740 13700 69520 9716 92760 55560 7969 18540 56920 22970 19390 19590 12770 14650 42120 9174 30230 57040 44430 15010 55440 16240 23610 56490 18880 10670 17330 17260 14700 22340 18160 13060 13420 15490 51020 20590 24990 14300 20410 6975 21020 48130 22040 12310 18440 17760 22750 15140 13690 19880 48440 22950 14750 10200 13040 35950 20260 104700 18880 12590 18770 13810 40120 19790 15210 39380 24780 12280 27470 14620 37890 15690 24830 37960 13750 18360 13660 17770 44160 22510 17140 14750 19450 48490 18310 17760 45980 23760 16260 10990 18840 7613 18620 30500 19260 17090 18220 46430 26000 74030 32260 47740 22300 143200 67730 12310 40900 17040 16280 22280 91960 39270 26520 8674 8034 104200 19220 45830 7653 14980 12490 31050 10320 10450 21170 28940 21400 27950 12830 43660 11770 11770 7392 27100 20390 19240 55310 20820 54960 25790 30650 18920 12200 15860 27200 18190 15880 62030 25840 8342 29370 38150 10960 16660 38660 49800 18160 58390 22780 10750 45210 940 22330 14780 17570 16210 35640 37630 34360 15270 27690 25340 51800 24850 14350 23250 29570 44140 11570 27870 7133 43120 13560 13860 10950 49240 17800 12360 19750 15880 5191 6466 50360 61080 15870 11160 16940 50210 14400 17570 94700 1062 42990 27160 36760 18270 14320 11060 19460 17500 44360 9456 12740 20480 12600 51380 15570 13310 17940 19500 20130 18340 28500 39080 29320 42640 16250 22930 35200 21190 15800 13570 12150 51610 36000 44810 17000 14600 51280 13580 32570 23030 42160 32840 42550 14150 13310 16100 30000 20980 17730 11840 19800 14790 30550 19120 18780 16450 8282 49020 43020 16450 12210 22190 16240 62700 48930 42820 48310 38790 21300 16170 16790 19860 12630 18460 20010 5991 14860 19260 13460 26760 13370 19980 28640 62290 64670 16410 22050 52440 15440 24090 46390 14740 13990 23220 16510 26910 18730 14280 29390
2021-12-03 25480 25500 7919 15130 20300 13150 23760 20950 8518 38250 22460 22050 19910 30250 10220 35570 58570 48690 11870 32270 23430 20280 28770 29950 59760 39480 189700 18040 32900 25680 12780 13630 52420 10480 63720 17670 97020 22570 16440 48950 13190 25240 40690 78030 15670 47560 16490 16640 17740 18460 35380 32210 36030 15570 29570 17180 20310 61550 17820 28410 15530 23390 43230 6594 30920 29140 15240 22150 58520 55390 15940 14980 13650 20650 65750 8101 28890 1470 14440 10780 13740 69990 9763 93000 55690 7990 18620 57210 23060 19450 19630 12830 14710 42230 9202 30330 57170 44670 15070 55610 16370 23670 56670 18930 10710 17430 17330 14770 22470 18220 13120 13470 15540 51250 20670 25070 14380 20530 6998 21230 48220 22090 12360 18500 17840 22860 15240 13730 19960 48650 23050 14820 10250 13080 36050 20360 104900 18990 12650 18820 13850 40260 19920 15350 39470 24860 12350 27530 14680 38030 15740 24960 38060 13850 18400 13750 17840 44290 22630 17180 14790 19490 48620 18420 17870 46110 23910 16300 11020 18880 7654 18710 30640 19320 17160 18300 46590 26120 74180 32330 47860 22360 143500 67890 12440 41080 17110 16340 22410 92140 39390 26620 8722 8064 104400 19270 45990 7696 15050 12550 31170 10400 10500 21330 29110 21520 28010 12870 43880 11850 11850 7442 27160 20520 19340 55430 20890 55100 25830 30880 18970 12320 15930 27300 18310 15950 62210 25950 8388 29480 38260 11020 16740 38780 49960 18210 58500 22870 10790 45300 946 22430 14860 17610 16280 35740 37760 34450 15360 27750 25450 51900 24930 14410 23370 29650 44310 11620 28010 7166 43240 13600 13900 10990 49380 17860 12410 19810 15940 5227 6514 50500 61200 15990 11220 17010 50340 14490 17650 94930 1077 43210 27220 36850 18340 14370 11140 19620 17570 44550 9527 12780 20550 12640 51530 15620 13400 18080 19570 20240 18400 28570 39250 29510 42780 16300 23010 35290 21270 15880 13620 12220 51730 36120 44950 17080 14660 51390 13610 32760 23160 42350 32950 42670 14210 13400 16230 30130 21050 17860 11900 19890 14840 30670 19260 18880 16510 8402 49100 43120 16560 12250 22290 16320 62880 49040 42980 48510 38880 21360 16220 16940 20020 12670 18530 20130 6028 14900 19310 13520 26830 13450 20090 28710 62450 65040 16500 22150 52580 15550 24330 46500 14800 14060 23320 16580 27110 18800 14320 29520
2021-12-04 25550 25620 7948 15140 20370 13230 23910 21040 8546 38390 22580 22120 20020 30360 10260 35640 58740 48780 11920 32390 23520 20340 28890 30050 60000 39660 190000 18110 32950 25750 12820 13670 52500 10510 63970 17740 97140 22660 16510 49040 13220 25320 40780 78270 15720 47790 16560 16690 17800 18490 35450 32320 36090 15650 29650 17210 20420 61770 17850 28490 15570 23500 43410 6619 31050 29270 15320 22280 58670 55550 16000 15080 13700 20720 65920 8134 29020 1480 14470 10820 13770 70450 9814 93150 55800 8015 18710 57480 23160 19490 19680 12890 14740 42350 9234 30430 57270 44870 15130 55750 16470 23710 56830 19000 10760 17500 17390 14830 22590 18270 13180 13520 15580 51470 20730 25140 14470 20630 7020 21410 48320 22160 12420 18570 17920 22980 15330 13760 20050 48820 23140 14900 10300 13120 36150 20460 105100 19090 12720 18880 13890 40400 20040 15480 39560 24930 12410 27600 14740 38170 15790 25070 38170 13940 18440 13830 17910 44420 22740 17230 14820 19520 48750 18520 17980 46240 24060 16330 11050 18930 7693 18800 30780 19380 17240 18350 46690 26230 74300 32410 47990 22410 143700 68040 12560 41250 17180 16390 22540 92300 39510 26700 8772 8078 104600 19300 46160 7739 15130 12590 31290 10470 10540 21440 29260 21610 28060 12910 44090 11910 11930 7493 27210 20640 19430 55560 20940 55250 25880 31100 19000 12440 16000 27410 18430 16020 62340 26060 8425 29590 38320 11070 16810 38860 50050 18270 58630 22960 10830 45350 952 22520 14950 17650 16340 35820 37820 34570 15420 27780 25560 52020 25000 14460 23500 29700 44460 11670 28140 7200 43330 13650 13950 11040 49470 17910 12460 19850 16000 5260 6557 50610 61290 16090 11280 17080 50460 14570 17740 95070 1089 43390 27290 36940 18400 14420 11210 19780 17630 44750 9586 12820 20630 12660 51650 15660 13490 18220 19630 20350 18440 28640 39410 29690 42920 16370 23100 35370 21340 15940 13680 12280 51830 36220 45040 17160 14720 51460 13650 32950 23260 42510 33060 42750 14270 13490 16330 30230 21130 17980 11970 19980 14900 30790 19390 18970 16550 8511 49200 43220 16660 12300 22380 16390 63000 49110 43140 48710 38970 21430 16280 17080 20180 12720 18590 20240 6058 14930 19340 13570 26910 13520 20190 28790 62590 65410 16590 22250 52690 15660 24560 46580 14870 14110 23380 16660 27220 18860 14360 29630
2021-12-05 25650 25750 7979 15150 20440 13300 24060 21140 8575 38530 22710 22180 20150 30480 10310 35700 58910 48890 11960 32530 23610 20400 29000 30160 60250 39840 190400 18180 33000 25820 12860 13710 52610 10540 64260 17820 97280 22760 16580 49160 13270 25410 40870 78520 15790 48010 16620 16740 17860 18510 35510 32440 36150 15730 29740 17260 20540 61980 17880 28600 15630 23610 43610 6644 31160 29400 15400 22400 58860 55710 16070 15190 13750 20790 66120 8166 29160 1491 14530 10850 13820 70910 9867 93390 55930 8040 18800 57760 23250 19550 19730 12940 14800 42470 9267 30530 57430 45080 15200 55920 16570 23760 56990 19060 10820 17580 17450 14890 22710 18320 13240 13580 15610 51690 20800 25200 14550 20750 7043 21600 48430 22220 12470 18640 18010 23090 15430 13790 20130 48990 23230 14960 10350 13160 36260 20550 105300 19200 12780 18940 13930 40540 20160 15620 39660 25010 12470 27680 14810 38310 15850 25180 38270 14030 18480 13930 17990 44560 22850 17280 14860 19560 48890 18620 18090 46350 24220 16360 11080 18970 7730 18890 30930 19450 17320 18420 46840 26350 74430 32480 48120 22460 144000 68170 12690 41430 17250 16450 22670 92480 39630 26810 8824 8120 104800 19360 46340 7783 15210 12630 31410 10540 10590 21580 29410 21670 28120 12950 44310 11980 12000 7543 27260 20770 19520 55690 21000 55380 25930 31310 19050 12560 16060 27520 18540 16090 62490 26160 8464 29710 38450 11120 16890 38980 50200 18330 58760 23040 10870 45430 957 22610 15030 17680 16410 35920 37980 34690 15490 27840 25670 52130 25070 14520 23640 29760 44600 11710 28220 7234 43430 13700 13990 11100 49580 17970 12520 19900 16070 5293 6598 50740 61420 16190 11330 17160 50590 14640 17820 95280 1101 43620 27350 37060 18470 14470 11280 19940 17700 44950 9654 12870 20710 12700 51780 15710 13570 18360 19700 20460 18500 28700 39580 29870 43070 16440 23200 35450 21420 16010 13730 12340 51960 36330 45150 17240 14780 51590 13690 33140 23390 42660 33170 42850 14340 13580 16450 30350 21210 18110 12040 20060 14950 30910 19530 19060 16600 8618 49300 43320 16760 12350 22480 16450 63150 49190 43300 48910 39080 21500 16340 17210 20340 12760 18670 20360 6089 14980 19390 13620 27000 13610 20300 28850 62750 65780 16680 22360 52840 15770 24780 46670 14940 14170 23470 16730 27390 18920 14410 29740
2021-12-06 25770 25860 8013 15170 20510 13370 24210 21240 8608 38680 22850 22240 20330 30600 10350 35830 59100 49040 11990 32720 23710 20460 29110 30260 60550 40030 190900 18250 33070 25900 12900 13750 52740 10570 64610 17900 97460 22860 16650 49320 13320 25500 40980 78760 15870 48250 16690 16790 17930 18540 35640 32540 36230 15820 29840 17320 20710 62230 17910 28720 15690 23710 43820 6667 31300 29540 15480 22540 59110 55970 16130 15300 13830 20860 66390 8195 29290 1502 14590 10920 13900 71380 9923 93740 56100 8069 18900 58040 23340 19620 19790 12990 14870 42590 9302 30630 57620 45450 15270 56120 16660 23820 57220 19130 10870 17710 17520 14980 22840 18380 13300 13640 15680 51890 20870 25310 14680 20870 7066 21780 48550 22290 12530 18710 18100 23210 15530 13840 20210 49240 23330 15070 10400 13200 36360 20650 105600 19310 12840 19010 13970 40690 20260 15750 39770 25070 12530 27770 14880 38450 15910 25290 38380 14130 18520 14060 18070 44710 22950 17340 14890 19590 49030 18710 18200 46520 24370 16420 11140 19070 7766 18980 31070 19520 17390 18500 47040 26460 74560 32550 48270 22530 144400 68370 12810 41600 17320 16500 22800 92760 39750 26950 8877 8189 105000 19440 46520 7827 15290 12670 31540 10610 10640 21760 29560 21770 28180 12990 44520 12080 12060 7594 27310 20900 19630 55830 21090 55540 25980 31540 19110 12680 16110 27630 18660 16160 62700 26260 8512 29830 38600 11170 16960 39130 50400 18390 58910 23120 10910 45540 962 22700 15120 17720 16460 36070 38200 34830 15580 27900 25780 52260 25140 14570 23770 29840 44740 11750 28360 7270 43550 13760 14030 11160 49720 18020 12570 19960 16140 5324 6637 50890 61580 16270 11380 17230 50750 14710 17910 95520 1110 43870 27440 37210 18530 14520 11360 20110 17770 45160 9754 12930 20820 12740 51940 15770 13680 18500 19760 20570 18580 28760 39740 30050 43210 16520 23290 35570 21500 16070 13790 12400 52140 36430 45340 17330 14840 51730 13730 33340 23550 42800 33270 42990 14400 13670 16590 30520 21290 18230 12110 20150 15010 31030 19670 19170 16660 8721 49410 43480 16860 12390 22620 16560 63340 49310 43450 49120 39240 21570 16400 17340 20500 12820 18780 20480 6154 15030 19450 13680 27110 13720 20410 28980 62950 66140 16780 22480 53040 15880 25000 46800 15020 14270 23580 16810 27610 18970 14460 29840
2021-12-07 25860 25970 8048 15180 20580 13440 24360 21330 8643 38830 22990 22300 20500 30720 10400 35920 59300 49170 12020 32880 23820 20520 29220 30370 60860 40220 191300 18310 33130 25970 12940 13790 52850 10610 64930 17980 97630 22960 16720 49460 13370 25580 41100 79000 15950 48490 16750 16840 17990 18590 35750 32650 36320 15910 29940 17380 20850 62430 17940 28820 15750 23800 44030 6690 31440 29670 15560 22670 59360 56210 16190 15400 13900 20930 66570 8222 29430 1513 14630 10940 13960 71850 9980 94040 56260 8098 18990 58310 23440 19680 19850 13050 14910 42720 9338 30730 57770 45720 15350 56310 16750 23870 57410 19190 10930 17820 17580 15080 22960 18430 13370 13700 15720 52090 20940 25430 14790 21000 7089 21950 48670 22360 12590 18780 18190 23330 15630 13880 20300 49480 23430 15140 10450 13240 36470 20750 105800 19420 12900 19080 14010 40840 20370 15890 39880 25140 12590 27860 14950 38590 15970 25400 38490 14230 18560 14140 18150 44850 23050 17390 14930 19610 49170 18800 18300 46650 24520 16460 11180 19140 7801 19070 31220 19600 17470 18580 47190 26580 74710 32630 48410 22610 144700 68550 12930 41780 17390 16560 22930 93020 39870 27110 8932 8241 105300 19490 46710 7872 15380 12710 31660 10680 10690 21950 29700 21900 28230 13030 44730 12170 12120 7646 27350 21030 19720 55970 21170 55690 26030 31760 19170 12810 16170 27750 18780 16230 62860 26360 8559 29950 38750 11220 17040 39230 50580 18440 59050 23200 10950 45630 966 22790 15210 17750 16520 36190 38480 34980 15630 27970 25890 52400 25210 14630 23910 29910 44870 11790 28480 7306 43670 13820 14070 11220 49870 18080 12630 20030 16210 5355 6675 51040 61720 16350 11420 17300 50910 14770 17990 95730 1119 44090 27540 37360 18590 14570 11430 20260 17830 45360 9842 12970 20930 12780 52110 15840 13780 18640 19820 20680 18650 28820 39910 30230 43360 16600 23390 35700 21570 16120 13860 12450 52300 36540 45510 17420 14910 51870 13770 33530 23670 42940 33380 43140 14460 13770 16730 30660 21380 18350 12190 20240 15080 31160 19810 19290 16710 8823 49530 43630 16960 12440 22700 16660 63510 49410 43610 49320 39380 21650 16450 17460 20660 12870 18860 20590 6201 15080 19500 13730 27200 13820 20520 29080 63120 66500 16870 22590 53210 15980 25220 46920 15090 14350 23660 16890 27810 19020 14510 29940

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-12-01 to 2021-12-07

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-11-30 24907 25066 7839 15082 20091 12869 23295 20631 8345 37852 22091 21857 19493 29922 10097 35401 58083 48218 11718 31903 23190 20105 28359 29620 59029 38905 188223 17810 32677 25451 12635 13484 51931 10358 62862 17455 96360 22320 16223 48615 13106 24966 40515 77265 15471 46890 16294 16494 17564 18324 35067 31819 35829 15172 29339 16996 19881 60648 17724 27929 15419 22969 42728 6511 30365 28733 15008 21779 57881 54594 15748 14655 13519 20431 65023 7979 28516 1448 14218 10633 13601 68551 9619 92119 55209 7926 18374 56316 22778 19202 19498 12641 14479 41893 9114 30017 56712 43808 14893 54972 15993 23414 56087 18753 10567 17127 17119 14585 22087 18040 12930 13316 15376 50543 20344 24758 14102 20087 6928 20612 47940 21916 12203 18306 17599 22523 14947 13583 19714 47924 22767 14619 10103 12953 35750 20062 104228 18674 12455 18655 13733 39826 19496 14939 39206 24619 12144 27346 14497 37593 15576 24580 37761 13560 18266 13442 17617 43888 22256 17048 14588 19355 48233 18093 17540 45648 23436 16150 10920 18724 7532 18433 30193 19145 16925 18060 46099 25771 73572 32118 47499 22116 142382 67272 12053 40531 16896 16151 22019 91599 39034 26386 8574 7942 103675 19109 45496 7564 14823 12389 30810 10159 10360 20797 28597 21066 27830 12739 43212 11558 11601 7153 26991 20137 18943 55058 20626 54645 25697 30192 18792 11952 15727 26982 17952 15735 61640 25604 8261 29134 37828 10840 16501 38399 49359 18036 58149 22595 10661 45021 926 22136 14621 17483 16062 35350 37525 34171 15021 27540 25133 51596 24709 14230 22988 29388 43821 11466 27428 7065 42786 13474 13760 10854 48870 17698 12256 19541 15759 5115 6370 49946 60758 15629 11025 16782 49857 14223 17402 94047 1031 42465 26994 36550 18121 14205 10907 19088 17367 43965 9295 12583 20215 12492 51067 15448 13114 17651 19356 19904 18213 28364 38739 28945 42347 16127 22745 34992 21028 15644 13471 11997 51375 35770 44487 16841 14479 50965 13526 32167 22791 41801 32600 42288 14013 13132 15785 29707 20826 17464 11697 19621 14673 30307 18815 18546 16258 8040 48841 42761 16218 12113 21865 16022 62174 48616 42491 47896 38642 21165 16055 16461 19529 12550 18260 19766 5950 14774 19098 13335 26608 13175 19776 28504 61902 63900 16221 21838 52100 15198 23607 46103 14608 13841 22980 16361 26270 18596 14194 29138
2021-12-01 25020 25170 7880 15110 20160 12930 23460 20780 8379 38020 22240 21910 19650 30070 10150 35490 58340 48360 11750 32080 23310 20180 28470 29730 59300 39060 188700 17880 32750 25530 12670 13520 52060 10400 63200 17550 96550 22430 16290 48770 13170 25050 40720 77540 15540 47130 16360 16550 17640 18370 35170 31920 35920 15280 29460 17060 20030 60890 17760 28040 15500 23110 42990 6534 30510 28870 15100 21920 58110 54850 15810 14760 13580 20510 65260 8012 28670 1457 14280 10670 13660 69040 9690 92420 55370 7956 18490 56540 22890 19280 19570 12700 14530 42040 9156 30120 56860 44110 14980 55160 16070 23470 56280 18840 10630 17240 17190 14690 22220 18100 13000 13390 15440 50740 20420 24890 14210 20260 6954 20800 48080 22000 12260 18380 17700 22670 15060 13640 19810 48160 22870 14700 10150 13000 35870 20160 104500 18800 12520 18730 13780 40000 19630 15070 39330 24690 12200 27460 14580 37740 15650 24690 37870 13670 18320 13550 17720 44050 22350 17120 14630 19450 48400 18180 17650 45810 23600 16200 10970 18790 7593 18540 30320 19230 17010 18150 46270 25900 73730 32200 47680 22190 142700 67470 12190 40720 16970 16210 22160 91860 39170 26540 8634 7990 103900 19170 45710 7610 14910 12420 30950 10250 10420 20970 28760 21210 27890 12780 43440 11660 11660 7208 27040 20280 19050 55220 20710 54810 25770 30390 18850 12090 15780 27110 18070 15820 61830 25720 8312 29270 37980 10880 16560 38520 49550 18100 58330 22680 10700 45130 929 22230 14720 17510 16120 35490 37780 34350 15100 27600 25270 51750 24780 14290 23140 29470 43940 11510 27630 7107 42920 13550 13800 10940 49030 17770 12330 19650 15840 5159 6406 50100 60920 15680 11080 16860 50000 14290 17500 94290 1041 42710 27090 36690 18180 14270 10970 19250 17440 44200 9390 12630 20340 12530 51220 15520 13220 17810 19430 20020 18280 28430 38910 29130 42530 16200 22860 35090 21120 15700 13540 12040 51540 35880 44660 16950 14550 51120 13610 32340 22910 41930 32720 42410 14080 13240 15940 29860 20930 17610 11780 19720 14740 30450 18930 18690 16320 8160 48980 42900 16330 12170 21970 16140 62350 48740 42660 48150 38790 21240 16120 16620 19680 12610 18360 19910 5992 14820 19170 13390 26710 13270 19890 28590 62080 64280 16320 21980 52270 15290 23790 46220 14690 13920 23080 16440 26500 18640 14260 29250
2021-12-02 25160 25310 7909 15150 20220 13010 23600 20900 8421 38150 22370 21970 19780 30180 10190 35560 58510 48490 11780 32210 23400 20250 28580 29840 59540 39170 189200 17950 32810 25610 12720 13570 52200 10440 63530 17630 96760 22510 16360 48900 13210 25140 40900 77780 15600 47320 16420 16600 17710 18410 35270 32040 35990 15380 29550 17130 20150 61140 17780 28150 15540 23240 43170 6558 30640 28980 15180 22030 58320 55080 15870 14860 13630 20570 65490 8044 28800 1460 14340 10680 13720 69430 9740 92710 55510 7979 18590 56720 22970 19350 19620 12750 14590 42160 9189 30220 56990 44410 15050 55360 16170 23530 56480 18900 10690 17330 17250 14760 22350 18150 13070 13440 15500 50940 20510 25010 14320 20400 6977 20980 48190 22070 12320 18460 17790 22790 15150 13680 19890 48400 22970 14760 10200 13040 35970 20230 104700 18910 12580 18790 13820 40100 19750 15220 39430 24760 12270 27540 14640 37860 15720 24810 37950 13750 18360 13630 17810 44190 22460 17170 14680 19540 48540 18280 17760 45950 23760 16240 11000 18840 7652 18650 30420 19300 17090 18230 46420 26030 73890 32280 47830 22240 143100 67630 12310 40870 17040 16270 22280 92070 39280 26660 8691 8030 104200 19220 45920 7659 14990 12460 31090 10330 10470 21180 28930 21320 27950 12820 43630 11750 11730 7275 27090 20420 19140 55350 20790 54920 25860 30540 18900 12220 15850 27220 18200 15890 62000 25830 8349 29390 38110 10920 16610 38640 49710 18160 58480 22760 10740 45230 933 22330 14810 17540 16180 35610 38000 34480 15180 27660 25400 51870 24850 14360 23280 29550 44070 11560 27810 7146 43040 13600 13840 11000 49180 17820 12380 19760 15900 5198 6451 50260 61040 15740 11130 16940 50150 14360 17600 94530 1055 42940 27170 36810 18240 14320 11020 19380 17520 44410 9467 12680 20460 12570 51360 15580 13290 17940 19490 20130 18340 28490 39090 29290 42670 16280 22960 35190 21200 15760 13600 12100 51680 35990 44800 17030 14610 51260 13670 32470 23020 42080 32830 42530 14140 13330 16080 30000 21010 17750 11850 19810 14810 30590 19030 18790 16380 8278 49060 43030 16440 12210 22090 16230 62510 48860 42810 48370 38900 21300 16180 16770 19820 12660 18460 20030 6026 14860 19230 13450 26800 13360 20000 28690 62230 64660 16400 22090 52450 15350 23960 46320 14770 14000 23180 16520 26710 18690 14300 29360
2021-12-03 25280 25430 7941 15180 20280 13090 23740 21020 8455 38280 22500 22020 19900 30300 10240 35620 58680 48610 11810 32350 23500 20330 28680 29950 59780 39280 189600 18020 32870 25690 12760 13610 52330 10480 63830 17720 96940 22600 16440 49040 13260 25230 41070 78010 15660 47510 16470 16650 17770 18440 35370 32150 36060 15470 29630 17190 20250 61360 17800 28230 15590 23350 43360 6581 30740 29080 15250 22130 58530 55310 15940 14940 13690 20630 65710 8073 28940 1464 14410 10700 13770 69820 9800 92950 55650 8004 18680 56900 23060 19410 19680 12790 14640 42280 9224 30310 57100 44700 15120 55540 16260 23580 56660 18960 10750 17420 17320 14840 22470 18200 13130 13490 15550 51120 20580 25120 14410 20530 7001 21150 48300 22140 12360 18530 17880 22890 15250 13720 19960 48620 23060 14820 10250 13070 36080 20310 104900 19030 12640 18860 13860 40220 19860 15350 39540 24810 12330 27630 14700 37980 15780 24910 38030 13840 18400 13720 17890 44320 22550 17230 14710 19630 48690 18370 17860 46090 23890 16280 11030 18890 7704 18760 30510 19370 17160 18310 46570 26150 74030 32360 47980 22280 143400 67790 12420 41010 17120 16330 22380 92270 39390 26780 8746 8063 104400 19270 46110 7707 15080 12490 31220 10410 10520 21350 29090 21430 28010 12850 43820 11840 11800 7317 27140 20560 19210 55480 20870 55030 25950 30700 18950 12340 15900 27330 18320 15960 62170 25940 8393 29510 38220 10970 16670 38760 49870 18210 58620 22840 10780 45320 936 22420 14900 17570 16230 35700 38240 34610 15260 27710 25530 51990 24920 14420 23420 29620 44190 11600 27950 7184 43160 13660 13880 11060 49320 17880 12440 19850 15970 5235 6492 50400 61130 15800 11180 17000 50280 14430 17690 94750 1066 43170 27230 36930 18290 14360 11070 19510 17590 44610 9543 12720 20530 12610 51500 15630 13380 18070 19550 20240 18390 28550 39260 29450 42790 16350 23050 35280 21280 15820 13670 12150 51820 36090 44920 17120 14670 51390 13730 32600 23120 42200 32930 42650 14200 13430 16200 30140 21090 17880 11920 19890 14870 30710 19130 18900 16430 8378 49150 43110 16540 12250 22190 16310 62640 48980 42950 48590 39010 21370 16240 16900 19930 12710 18550 20150 6061 14900 19260 13500 26880 13430 20110 28780 62350 65030 16490 22210 52590 15420 24130 46410 14840 14070 23270 16590 26910 18740 14350 29470
2021-12-04 25350 25510 7974 15200 20340 13150 23870 21140 8481 38410 22620 22070 20020 30420 10290 35690 58860 48710 11830 32490 23590 20400 28770 30060 60010 39390 190000 18090 32920 25770 12800 13640 52420 10510 64120 17800 97080 22670 16500 49150 13310 25310 41190 78210 15720 47700 16510 16700 17840 18470 35440 32250 36120 15560 29720 17240 20360 61560 17820 28300 15630 23440 43560 6603 30840 29180 15320 22220 58700 55530 16000 15020 13740 20680 65870 8098 29070 1467 14450 10720 13830 70180 9850 93110 55770 8031 18770 57090 23150 19460 19740 12830 14680 42410 9258 30400 57190 44970 15200 55700 16340 23620 56830 19020 10800 17490 17370 14910 22580 18260 13190 13540 15600 51290 20650 25230 14490 20630 7024 21310 48420 22220 12410 18590 17980 23010 15340 13760 20030 48810 23160 14890 10300 13110 36180 20390 105100 19140 12700 18920 13900 40330 19970 15490 39650 24860 12390 27720 14770 38090 15840 25010 38100 13920 18430 13800 17970 44440 22610 17280 14750 19710 48830 18450 17950 46230 24010 16320 11060 18930 7750 18870 30610 19450 17240 18370 46700 26270 74150 32430 48110 22320 143600 67920 12520 41140 17190 16390 22480 92460 39490 26890 8802 8087 104600 19320 46300 7754 15160 12520 31350 10470 10570 21510 29240 21510 28060 12880 44010 11920 11850 7366 27180 20700 19260 55620 20930 55150 26040 30850 18990 12460 15950 27410 18430 16030 62300 26040 8432 29620 38300 11010 16710 38860 49990 18270 58760 22910 10820 45390 938 22510 14990 17590 16280 35770 38430 34760 15310 27750 25650 52110 24990 14480 23550 29670 44300 11640 28070 7221 43250 13720 13920 11110 49400 17940 12490 19930 16030 5267 6531 50520 61190 15840 11230 17070 50410 14490 17780 94920 1076 43380 27300 37050 18340 14410 11110 19620 17650 44810 9607 12760 20610 12630 51620 15670 13450 18180 19610 20350 18430 28610 39430 29600 42910 16420 23140 35360 21350 15860 13730 12200 51940 36190 45000 17200 14730 51490 13800 32730 23220 42300 33030 42740 14260 13520 16320 30270 21170 18020 11980 19960 14930 30820 19230 19010 16460 8466 49220 43180 16630 12290 22290 16390 62720 49070 43090 48790 39120 21430 16290 17030 20040 12770 18640 20270 6095 14940 19290 13550 26960 13490 20200 28860 62450 65380 16560 22320 52700 15480 24250 46470 14890 14140 23350 16660 27080 18790 14400 29570
2021-12-05 25460 25630 8007 15230 20390 13220 24010 21260 8513 38540 22750 22120 20160 30530 10340 35760 59000 48830 11860 32630 23680 20470 28870 30170 60260 39490 190400 18150 32980 25850 12830 13680 52550 10540 64430 17890 97240 22750 16570 49280 13360 25400 41350 78450 15780 47900 16570 16740 17900 18500 35520 32360 36180 15640 29800 17300 20470 61770 17840 28390 15690 23550 43760 6625 30930 29290 15390 22320 58890 55750 16060 15110 13790 20740 66070 8124 29210 1470 14510 10740 13880 70580 9910 93360 55910 8060 18870 57280 23240 19520 19800 12880 14740 42530 9293 30490 57320 45240 15270 55890 16430 23680 56990 19080 10860 17570 17430 14970 22700 18310 13250 13590 15640 51460 20730 25340 14570 20760 7047 21480 48540 22290 12460 18660 18080 23120 15440 13790 20110 49010 23260 14950 10350 13140 36280 20470 105300 19260 12760 18990 13940 40440 20070 15610 39760 24910 12450 27820 14830 38200 15900 25120 38170 13990 18470 13890 18050 44580 22710 17340 14790 19780 48980 18530 18040 46360 24130 16360 11100 18970 7795 18970 30710 19520 17310 18440 46840 26390 74270 32510 48240 22360 143900 68070 12630 41280 17260 16440 22590 92650 39600 27020 8860 8130 104800 19370 46490 7801 15240 12550 31490 10550 10620 21690 29390 21590 28110 12920 44210 11990 11910 7425 27230 20840 19340 55760 21000 55260 26120 31010 19040 12580 16000 27500 18550 16100 62450 26150 8473 29740 38420 11050 16770 38970 50140 18320 58900 22980 10860 45470 941 22600 15080 17610 16350 35850 38660 34900 15370 27810 25780 52230 25060 14530 23690 29740 44420 11680 28200 7258 43350 13780 13950 11160 49510 17990 12550 20010 16090 5299 6569 50670 61270 15890 11270 17130 50540 14550 17870 95140 1088 43600 27370 37180 18390 14450 11170 19770 17720 45010 9673 12810 20700 12670 51750 15720 13530 18310 19670 20460 18480 28660 39590 29760 43030 16500 23240 35450 21430 15920 13800 12250 52080 36290 45090 17290 14790 51620 13860 32870 23330 42410 33130 42850 14310 13620 16440 30400 21240 18140 12060 20030 14990 30960 19330 19100 16510 8554 49290 43260 16730 12330 22390 16460 62840 49170 43240 48980 39240 21490 16350 17150 20150 12820 18730 20390 6128 14980 19330 13590 27040 13560 20300 28930 62560 65730 16650 22440 52860 15560 24340 46560 14970 14200 23440 16740 27260 18840 14450 29660
2021-12-06 25610 25770 8046 15260 20460 13290 24140 21380 8562 38670 22900 22180 20300 30670 10390 35850 59200 48970 11880 32790 23790 20540 28990 30280 60550 39610 190900 18220 33050 25930 12870 13720 52680 10580 64760 17980 97430 22850 16640 49430 13420 25490 41580 78730 15860 48110 16640 16790 17970 18540 35640 32460 36260 15730 29890 17360 20600 62040 17860 28510 15740 23670 43980 6647 31060 29400 15490 22440 59140 55980 16120 15210 13850 20810 66330 8152 29350 1473 14580 10760 13950 71010 9970 93710 56070 8089 18980 57470 23320 19590 19860 12920 14810 42670 9328 30590 57470 45570 15350 56090 16540 23750 57220 19140 10920 17680 17500 15070 22820 18360 13320 13670 15700 51640 20810 25460 14700 20890 7070 21640 48660 22360 12510 18750 18180 23250 15530 13840 20180 49270 23370 15010 10400 13180 36390 20540 105500 19370 12820 19060 13970 40560 20150 15750 39870 24970 12510 27920 14890 38310 15970 25230 38250 14080 18510 13980 18140 44730 22840 17400 14830 19910 49140 18630 18160 46510 24280 16410 11140 19040 7849 19080 30810 19610 17380 18530 46990 26520 74430 32590 48410 22410 144300 68300 12750 41460 17330 16490 22710 92890 39710 27160 8920 8186 105000 19430 46710 7848 15330 12590 31620 10620 10670 21890 29540 21690 28170 12960 44410 12090 11980 7499 27270 20970 19440 55900 21080 55410 26210 31170 19090 12690 16060 27620 18680 16170 62660 26240 8520 29860 38560 11090 16820 39100 50320 18380 59070 23070 10890 45570 945 22700 15180 17630 16420 35980 38920 35060 15450 27870 25910 52360 25130 14590 23850 29830 44550 11720 28350 7296 43490 13840 14000 11220 49670 18050 12610 20100 16170 5333 6609 50840 61370 15960 11320 17200 50700 14610 17970 95390 1097 43840 27440 37320 18460 14510 11220 19930 17800 45210 9762 12870 20820 12710 51920 15780 13620 18440 19730 20580 18540 28720 39760 29930 43180 16570 23340 35560 21510 15980 13860 12310 52240 36400 45220 17390 14860 51760 13950 33030 23440 42530 33240 42990 14380 13710 16570 30560 21330 18270 12130 20120 15060 31100 19450 19210 16560 8677 49390 43370 16820 12380 22530 16540 63000 49290 43400 49210 39360 21560 16410 17280 20290 12870 18830 20530 6168 15030 19370 13640 27140 13650 20420 29040 62700 66090 16740 22560 53070 15620 24520 46660 15080 14280 23550 16830 27460 18890 14510 29770
2021-12-07 25770 25900 8081 15300 20520 13360 24280 21500 8607 38800 23050 22230 20450 30800 10440 35940 59380 49110 11900 32930 23890 20610 29100 30390 60830 39730 191400 18280 33120 26000 12910 13770 52820 10620 65090 18070 97620 22960 16720 49570 13470 25580 41790 78980 15930 48310 16690 16840 18040 18580 35760 32570 36340 15820 29990 17420 20720 62280 17890 28620 15810 23790 44190 6668 31190 29500 15580 22550 59370 56220 16180 15300 13900 20870 66570 8181 29500 1476 14640 10780 14010 71440 10030 94000 56220 8118 19090 57670 23410 19660 19920 12970 14860 42800 9362 30700 57610 45890 15430 56300 16640 23820 57420 19200 10980 17780 17560 15160 22950 18420 13380 13740 15740 51820 20890 25590 14820 21020 7094 21800 48790 22440 12570 18830 18270 23370 15630 13900 20250 49520 23470 15070 10450 13220 36500 20620 105800 19490 12880 19130 14010 40670 20260 15890 39990 25020 12570 28020 14960 38430 16030 25350 38330 14160 18550 14070 18230 44870 22950 17460 14880 19990 49290 18730 18270 46670 24430 16460 11170 19090 7899 19180 30910 19690 17450 18620 47130 26640 74600 32660 48590 22480 144600 68520 12870 41600 17400 16560 22830 93130 39820 27300 8981 8238 105300 19490 46930 7895 15410 12620 31760 10700 10720 22110 29680 21810 28230 13000 44600 12180 12030 7575 27310 21110 19540 56050 21150 55540 26300 31330 19150 12810 16110 27730 18800 16240 62840 26340 8568 29980 38720 11130 16880 39230 50480 18430 59230 23150 10930 45670 948 22800 15270 17660 16460 36100 39180 35220 15510 27930 26030 52480 25200 14650 24000 29910 44670 11760 28510 7334 43640 13900 14030 11280 49820 18110 12670 20190 16250 5372 6652 51020 61450 16020 11370 17260 50860 14670 18060 95620 1106 44070 27520 37450 18510 14550 11270 20080 17870 45410 9840 12920 20940 12750 52070 15840 13710 18570 19800 20690 18600 28780 39930 30090 43320 16650 23440 35680 21590 16050 13930 12380 52390 36510 45350 17490 14930 51900 14020 33180 23550 42660 33340 43130 14440 13810 16710 30700 21420 18400 12210 20210 15120 31250 19550 19320 16610 8793 49480 43470 16920 12430 22660 16620 63160 49410 43550 49440 39490 21630 16470 17410 20440 12930 18920 20670 6206 15080 19410 13690 27220 13730 20540 29150 62810 66440 16820 22690 53240 15700 24670 46750 15160 14350 23640 16910 27660 18950 14560 29870

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.