COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-12-06 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-12-06

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-12-06

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-08-312021-08-302021-11-242021-09-142021-09-262021-08-26 -- --2021-08-242021-11-242021-11-232021-09-272021-11-242021-10-112021-10-052021-11-242021-11-242021-07-062021-09-262021-11-232021-10-112021-10-032021-10-122021-11-242021-07-122021-11-2112-292021-09-1412-272021-07-082021-10-082021-10-032021-05-102021-11-232021-11-252021-07-072021-07-072021-11-232021-10-102021-07-072021-11-252021-11-212021-11-242021-07-072021-10-102021-11-242021-10-082021-07-07 --2021-07-072021-07-062021-10-112021-10-022021-11-242021-11-242021-10-062021-11-242021-10-052021-07-072021-08-292021-07-072021-11-072021-11-232021-10-102021-11-082021-10-122021-10-102021-11-242021-10-032021-11-212021-10-14 --2021-10-112021-10-042021-08-222021-08-242021-11-242021-10-262021-09-092021-10-182021-08-302021-11-212021-10-132021-07-022021-07-072021-10-112021-11-242021-07-072021-10-122021-10-062021-11-252021-10-032021-09-192021-11-242021-10-042021-08-132021-07-072021-11-232021-11-232021-07-072021-08-162021-06-212021-07-082021-08-292021-11-242021-10-102021-08-182021-11-222021-11-142021-10-052021-06-132021-10-032021-08-222021-07-062021-10-082021-10-052021-11-222021-10-122021-11-252021-11-222021-11-242021-07-072021-07-052021-07-06 --2021-08-252021-11-222021-10-052021-08-132021-08-292021-09-082021-11-232021-10-112021-10-122021-10-152021-07-072021-08-232021-11-242021-10-112021-10-112021-07-072021-07-072021-11-222021-11-222021-07-072021-10-052021-11-102021-07-07 --2021-07-092021-11-222021-10-042021-07-07 --2021-07-052021-11-25 --2021-11-242021-09-162021-07-072021-10-062021-10-292021-07-072021-11-082021-10-112021-10-07 --2021-06-232021-08-232021-09-262021-11-232021-11-242021-07-072021-11-232021-09-172021-10-112021-07-072021-11-242021-10-0612-272021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-01-03 --2021-11-242021-10-032021-07-21 --12-262021-10-122021-11-252021-11-232021-11-252021-07-072021-08-102021-11-242021-11-132021-10-1112-082021-11-252021-11-232021-10-122021-11-152021-11-082021-11-142021-07-072021-08-252021-07-072021-11-242021-10-102021-11-012021-09-072021-10-102021-11-142021-07-032021-10-042021-11-232021-10-12 --2021-08-262021-11-232021-10-042021-11-252021-11-202021-10-112021-08-222021-09-21 --2021-10-102021-10-112021-10-112021-09-132021-10-042021-10-122021-10-112021-07-072021-09-272021-10-052021-07-072021-10-162021-06-222021-10-092021-07-072021-06-222021-10-052021-11-232021-11-232021-10-092021-07-062021-11-222021-11-242021-10-092021-10-062021-11-232021-08-232021-09-112021-10-11 --2021-11-152021-07-052021-10-132021-07-042021-11-222021-10-082021-09-142021-11-232021-11-242021-10-112021-11-242021-10-102021-07-072021-07-062021-07-0612-232021-10-112021-06-282021-11-072021-11-252021-07-0807-212021-11-082021-10-112021-07-062021-10-072021-08-182021-11-252021-11-222021-09-242021-10-11 --2021-10-192021-10-082021-09-262021-08-232021-10-10 -- --2021-10-092021-10-102021-10-102021-06-272021-10-112021-11-222021-07-072021-11-242021-10-182021-10-102021-09-132021-10-062021-11-222021-08-252021-10-012021-07-062021-10-032021-09-272021-10-072021-07-052021-10-112021-11-222021-11-252021-09-262021-10-102021-07-072021-11-232021-11-222021-11-252021-11-242021-07-062021-11-202021-10-112021-11-192021-07-072021-10-092021-11-222021-11-232021-10-112021-11-222021-07-072021-09-272021-11-232021-10-112021-10-10 --2021-07-062021-07-072021-11-242021-07-062021-07-072021-10-102021-07-072021-11-23 --2021-09-292021-07-072021-10-102021-11-242021-08-252021-07-072021-10-052021-08-25 --2021-10-112021-11-242021-07-072021-10-112021-10-112021-11-252021-06-292021-10-102021-11-222021-07-072021-07-062021-10-112021-11-102021-10-062021-11-202021-10-052021-10-052021-06-30
Peak daily increment 179 224 58 98 123 88 97 211 165 120 164 204 68 126 271 276 70 186 154 112 287 133 379 192 1249 89 157 159 126 76 208 62 374 107 478 137 93 176 83 125 286 621 105 309 94 72 74 161 249 177 119 163 100 139 414 115 190 101 154 306 67 163 192 203 159 369 274 99 125 109 567 69 191 23 102 78 72 473 103 607 376 48 120 229 123 93 100 86 84 194 64 202 400 334 88 269 137 184 189 133 82 116 183 109 135 108 112 95 157 295 93 161 116 152 35 168 188 105 58 110 185 109 88 171 421 121 101 104 70 156 122 941 151 107 69 113 163 168 160 229 125 67 156 152 88 157 143 146 114 199 165 82 90 150 197 104 133 177 71 136 161 91 121 189 99 139 112 247 145 316 311 301 117 707 284 227 98 99 727 137 182 64 51 442 96 253 49 164 105 167 86 81 190 167 136 274 115 196 103 99 76 184 153 102 384 113 196 190 164 124 100 138 130 107 621 176 291 227 47 91 195 270 110 264 131 46 255 22 131 145 56 113 197 303 241 109 104 141 208 106 77 200 289 268 57 40 213 75 69 91 233 116 72 109 78 40 48 253 255 94 83 131 195 79 104 482 24 256 109 277 202 118 80 183 87 370 64 142 85 470 128 88 178 83 303 202 202 243 103 150 142 143 104 76 91 243 339 199 112 201 428 98 223 152 270 329 219 72 101 151 165 116 137 150 100 78 105 122 135 134 106 226 286 124 78 160 352 191 197 313 195 144 73 149 90 102 193 64 158 94 101 207 145 148 380 632 149 143 243 96 177 185 99 78 106 108 201 116 93 138
Days since peak 97 98 12 83 71 102 104 12 13 70 12 56 62 12 12 153 71 13 56 64 55 12 147 15 342 83 344 151 59 64 210 13 11 152 152 13 57 152 11 15 12 152 57 12 59 152 152 153 56 65 12 12 61 12 62 152 99 152 29 13 57 28 55 57 12 64 15 53 56 63 106 104 12 41 88 49 98 15 54 157 152 56 12 152 55 61 11 64 78 12 63 115 152 13 13 152 112 168 151 99 12 57 110 14 22 62 176 64 106 153 59 62 14 55 11 14 12 152 154 153 103 14 62 115 99 89 13 56 55 52 152 105 12 56 56 152 152 14 14 152 62 26 152 150 14 63 152 154 11 12 81 152 61 38 152 28 56 60 166 105 71 13 12 152 13 80 56 152 12 61 344 152 151 152 337 12 64 138 345 55 11 13 11 152 118 12 23 56 363 11 13 55 21 28 22 152 103 152 12 57 35 90 57 22 156 63 13 55 102 13 63 11 16 56 106 76 57 56 56 84 63 55 56 152 70 62 152 51 167 58 152 167 62 13 13 58 153 14 12 58 61 13 105 86 56 21 154 54 155 14 59 83 13 12 56 12 57 152 153 153 348 56 161 29 11 151 503 28 56 153 60 110 11 14 73 56 48 59 71 105 57 58 57 57 162 56 14 152 12 49 57 84 61 14 103 66 153 64 70 60 154 56 14 11 71 57 152 13 14 11 12 153 16 56 17 152 58 14 13 56 14 152 70 13 56 57 153 152 12 153 152 57 152 13 68 152 57 12 103 152 62 103 56 12 152 56 56 11 160 57 14 152 153 56 26 61 16 62 62 159
Last total 25496 25667 8158 15253 20563 13135 24208 21517 8570 39028 23008 22316 20338 30778 10512 36192 59644 49068 11917 32964 23958 20495 29040 30444 60660 40015 191539 18347 33148 25894 12941 13758 52722 10741 65085 18072 97817 23152 16760 49683 13520 25715 42087 79015 16003 48545 16702 16806 18190 18561 35821 32535 36358 15907 30295 17384 20658 62095 18002 28527 15954 23653 44530 6708 31116 29725 15469 22715 59475 56282 16131 15366 14013 20970 66530 8129 29573 1514 14664 10881 13944 71193 10025 93747 56236 8159 19028 57961 23457 19589 20098 13115 14924 43019 9358 30735 57699 45712 15376 56085 16460 23677 57450 19399 11005 17825 17608 15169 22788 18563 13317 13806 15742 51809 20859 25590 14719 20898 7128 21508 49046 22521 12650 18862 18334 23287 15571 13921 20274 49177 23492 15150 10489 13173 36394 20658 105841 19509 12947 19179 14087 41196 20319 15703 40285 25171 12415 28220 15093 38525 16050 25186 38588 14268 18513 14028 18353 45049 22963 17454 14835 19819 49313 18644 18175 46719 24555 16380 11160 19185 8030 19168 31075 19685 17413 18552 47197 26638 74511 32688 48892 22601 144653 68463 12762 41887 17350 16644 22880 93413 39902 27301 8899 8205 105414 19531 46890 7827 15419 12597 31736 10563 10720 21768 29396 21811 28226 13061 45037 12090 11983 7470 27509 21031 19505 56070 21107 55822 26348 31512 19221 12539 16152 27820 18649 16253 62859 26267 8706 30058 38654 11097 17081 39372 50418 18575 59484 23101 10914 45681 954 22847 15183 17681 16432 36228 39460 35532 15530 27994 25989 52853 25176 14656 24135 30022 44625 11716 28561 7273 43672 13931 13975 11356 49750 18193 12652 20234 16241 5323 6531 50933 61738 15901 11287 17295 50905 14568 18015 95638 1054 43941 27689 37500 18519 14539 11345 20132 17880 45534 9966 12943 20863 12799 52119 15860 13852 18667 19728 20607 18695 28689 39839 30023 43707 16667 23521 35548 21700 16002 13852 12300 52523 36471 45723 17522 14968 51712 14019 33380 23582 42729 33231 43106 14439 13665 16595 30600 21467 18251 12232 20304 15146 31328 19499 19287 16646 8518 49950 43881 16902 12528 22513 16935 63333 49457 43741 49389 39526 21744 16479 17234 20422 12914 18836 20559 6307 15105 19477 13752 27242 13789 20522 29309 63157 66085 16885 22690 53164 15734 24517 46939 15182 14452 23681 16946 27323 18870 14540 29869
Last daily increment 91 86 46 26 55 46 178 184 15 204 167 73 118 156 64 149 264 126 41 196 116 50 140 129 275 244 482 99 71 72 30 49 118 44 298 101 168 130 81 188 69 49 196 324 123 280 65 61 99 33 89 65 73 110 145 44 123 189 64 43 106 125 290 32 132 156 83 162 267 252 55 78 104 93 186 16 166 9 57 42 71 489 77 295 173 29 87 286 117 72 121 94 54 147 19 152 149 296 81 174 73 26 227 65 56 104 82 75 142 70 67 72 60 183 92 146 128 115 33 135 217 121 58 72 98 136 87 44 121 197 116 78 60 47 123 88 217 101 99 91 49 238 140 42 207 94 42 136 101 149 82 98 144 113 37 76 107 211 88 70 48 55 187 103 113 177 178 30 44 95 38 93 163 66 76 79 191 143 124 116 252 75 333 218 145 254 55 93 145 288 156 138 60 47 324 62 232 37 119 25 140 73 68 134 150 144 69 55 329 68 27 36 45 141 61 189 83 211 70 275 55 100 66 97 111 81 207 106 66 176 150 39 95 184 216 92 225 95 46 96 6 139 58 26 53 132 425 246 52 97 149 252 74 82 162 114 71 30 175 48 132 71 35 77 118 70 64 124 66 40 31 198 152 37 35 110 175 59 92 261 9 227 110 169 91 54 75 162 76 294 124 50 110 46 149 72 138 199 78 139 92 51 144 186 299 72 141 64 103 72 64 31 195 116 219 108 88 122 76 160 130 61 115 132 55 85 107 114 126 125 86 136 94 194 113 116 44 89 179 218 115 76 70 185 159 141 239 188 125 101 90 94 158 73 112 117 67 44 61 82 106 132 128 120 189 417 112 121 170 89 150 134 109 115 51 113 188 45 51 122
Last week 527 557 304 157 443 247 949 928 163 1207 890 432 822 842 398 747 1523 783 181 1027 760 363 671 752 1696 1083 3054 523 432 397 247 254 747 337 2113 609 1257 811 498 1040 405 622 1480 1685 496 1625 380 301 603 220 720 621 484 694 922 348 756 1332 262 550 521 723 1760 180 722 964 447 926 1470 1627 359 694 490 512 1356 146 1015 65 392 238 327 2593 396 1588 975 208 615 1593 659 373 584 448 394 1059 225 730 929 1792 465 1023 449 249 1339 605 400 687 465 565 682 473 367 472 338 1139 484 770 597 787 197 863 1076 574 439 512 707 718 607 292 577 1206 641 512 354 204 631 564 1472 770 479 498 317 1314 805 622 1030 529 251 830 571 902 444 554 807 693 243 546 707 1130 660 393 230 426 1061 534 606 1032 1039 212 229 451 432 688 861 508 475 452 1002 826 861 526 1335 456 2076 1121 679 1314 414 474 889 1635 845 907 307 247 1663 388 1353 255 567 176 907 391 345 937 832 768 381 294 1769 514 331 302 440 843 539 993 446 1119 544 1356 401 572 395 753 683 485 1142 633 415 895 812 231 559 894 1039 502 1270 469 242 620 25 701 519 177 354 791 1910 1294 442 433 839 1203 455 411 1110 570 687 240 1089 204 833 453 196 477 812 479 385 661 469 196 136 919 905 247 246 500 969 331 581 1465 22 1406 680 882 375 313 433 987 482 1515 642 320 616 266 1000 395 695 1002 361 675 422 323 1047 1050 1318 531 765 506 632 333 369 275 1109 692 1141 655 473 730 484 1168 766 798 621 770 389 518 794 827 616 752 525 675 462 978 660 724 348 459 1072 1063 659 401 580 898 1061 757 1195 1413 843 540 412 750 872 349 565 786 346 294 360 400 596 607 671 755 1174 2141 636 840 1028 524 893 770 547 580 620 541 1044 261 323 695
Previous peak date07-2107-2112-272021-07-062021-07-0607-2112-2212-2607-2112-2112-2112-2712-0712-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-07-072021-07-0611-0212-2110-0712-2211-0212-2710-1310-1312-072021-01-0710-1511-132021-01-0112-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2811-0212-2512-212021-07-0712-222021-07-0512-3010-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-21 --11-0212-222021-08-1012-252021-07-0712-212021-07-0612-2712-212021-07-0707-2107-2112-26 --12-292021-07-0612-272021-08-0912-2411-0212-272021-07-0712-2712-2712-212021-07-0512-2112-212021-07-062021-01-022021-02-2510-0110-1412-2712-0712-2607-2107-2112-2707-2112-242021-08-1007-2112-2412-2111-0907-212021-07-0607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-062021-08-1007-2112-2312-2712-2207-2112-2512-252021-07-062021-07-062021-07-0412-2607-212021-07-0712-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-272021-07-0712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2712-2812-2212-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-222021-07-042021-08-2512-2812-3012-2212-2612-272021-01-0107-2112-282021-09-2612-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2210-2709-2912-2912-3011-0211-0212-2712-272021-07-0711-0212-2209-2812-2712-2212-212021-07-0711-022021-01-0212-222021-07-052021-07-07 --12-212021-08-0912-2112-2212-2112-2112-3107-2112-2212-2712-06 --12-0712-282021-07-0611-022021-07-0712-2712-0612-2607-212021-08-092021-07-072021-07-0312-2612-2107-2111-0112-272021-07-072021-07-042021-07-062021-07-0712-272021-07-062021-01-0111-022021-07-0811-0210-22 --12-2712-2812-2607-212021-01-062021-07-0711-0212-0611-0212-2912-212021-07-072021-01-0512-2207-2112-0612-2712-222021-07-0610-1912-1310-1112-1310-1812-3012-282021-07-0712-252021-01-262021-01-0211-0212-2910-3107-212021-08-0912-2812-2912-2211-02 --12-3012-2512-2512-2107-2112-2212-2112-282021-07-072021-08-092021-01-0412-2211-0907-2112-2112-2612-212021-07-072021-07-0712-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-252021-07-0712-2207-212021-07-0712-272021-07-0512-212021-07-0812-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2510-182021-06-2212-262021-08-092021-01-0412-272021-07-0712-2612-2112-2112-2212-222021-07-0712-062021-08-0912-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2611-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2212-2712-2612-202021-08-0907-2111-0212-0707-212021-07-0612-2812-2210-1612-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-2712-3112-2812-2512-3112-222021-07-062021-07-0811-02
Previous peak daily increment 605 360 61 115 105 285 131 73 115 260 170 110 176 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 152 144 277 233 262 426 1200 75 166 98 95 58 234 50 484 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 1167 107 508 94 186 106 122 160 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 107 303 292 268 65 197 269 283 82 88 71 121 1221 82 243 35 114 94 708 34 551 288 53 181 598 151 140 189 72 86 246 27 206 248 187 118 322 216 697 536 296 60 135 370 76 160 106 184 65 231 206 102 163 146 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 130 457 90 74 94 661 150 125 56 82 274 82 1697 95 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 218 84 201 59 401 172 103 338 104 106 136 120 476 101 159 73 203 442 57 115 452 155 83 239 134 64 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 153 428 107 1522 469 113 457 80 229 100 480 274 200 90 47 2166 92 419 40 71 298 72 62 153 186 105 213 296 361 79 62 191 105 116 2512 105 723 190 221 186 84 94 256 105 50 969 105 65 203 228 77 96 277 322 121 1362 158 68 257 125 44 108 227 154 343 347 43 156 174 623 297 81 176 445 286 52 187 67 194 138 65 96 198 80 85 116 174 36 25 417 448 80 147 123 407 65 131 557 209 244 167 97 218 110 102 69 345 90 42 86 73 839 94 76 127 92 106 102 115 248 293 451 131 156 222 94 77 112 144 243 138 240 67 69 206 105 331 189 270 181 172 83 109 143 140 349 92 44 138 123 360 138 131 101 61 559 151 90 110 120 83 245 329 449 390 227 260 138 117 154 65 154 87 70 296 165 42 369 74 115 217 319 264 83 148 431 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 170 120 74 573
Low between peaks 0 -1 -3 24 37 0 -26 5 -11 2 -7 -17 -8 3 -2 9 -1 -30 51 54 -14 -12 9 3 307 -1 55 -9 0 -14 17 2 -34 -8 31 -4 -5 -39 -11 1 -1 -18 -8 -8 38 -16 3 3 0 8 2 -17 -6 -64 5 -9 2 -2 3 -1 -7 -11 21 -3 129 -14 31 0 35 -11 -4 -9 1 25 2 227 -1 -13 -19 16 -8 -4 -11 43 1 -7 41 2 -3 11 1 -28 -14 -4 -48 -3 -6 -2 -3 49 -3 -6 -12 -2 -5 30 -1 -5 1 -17 -6 -5 0 -4 -80 -12 1 0 -4 0 0 4 -5 1 -7 19 32 75 2 -7 21 -8 -2 -8 -25 -21 1 -27 -25 27 -5 -12 -2 -17 5 -1 -8 -19 -9 -1 33 59 -27 1 -1 12 3 -2 -7 28 -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -12 -3 27 20 2 -5 40 120 -18 35 -9 58 7 -22 0 14 27 1 -45 11 31 2 20 -3 -10 6 2 5 -15 0 -3 0 1 -10 50 15 38 4 2 -8 32 39 68 -7 -6 -7 5 57 88 22 41 -3 111 -4 6 50 1 6 1 1 3 1 5 108 -23 0 0 -8 1 49 -51 -13 -2 1 0 17 3 0 1 -6 0 -2 0 54 -14 -6 -8 2 -1 -4 -4 40 -45 3 -6 23 -28 4 -3 -10 -2 -3 -4 -12 58 3 -5 -4 -7 -11 35 42 -10 2 -2 -3 -16 -2 -6 -39 -13 27 1 -1 119 4 85 -7 25 1 -4 -13 -40 3 -9 7 30 -5 34 -12 -3 37 -4 -9 2 -6 -11 51 1 29 5 0 -18 -3 1 16 -9 -22 -4 -6 -4 4 -12 -5 1 -7 17 -2 1 -4 -2 -12 7 6 -36 -9 -5 -68 0 -11 -19 -2 -6 2 1 0 44 35 -48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-12-07 to 2021-12-13

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-12-06 25496 25667 8158 15253 20563 13135 24208 21517 8570 39028 23008 22316 20338 30778 10512 36192 59644 49068 11917 32964 23958 20495 29040 30444 60660 40015 191539 18347 33148 25894 12941 13758 52722 10741 65085 18072 97817 23152 16760 49683 13520 25715 42087 79015 16003 48545 16702 16806 18190 18561 35821 32535 36358 15907 30295 17384 20658 62095 18002 28527 15954 23653 44530 6708 31116 29725 15469 22715 59475 56282 16131 15366 14013 20970 66530 8129 29573 1514 14664 10881 13944 71193 10025 93747 56236 8159 19028 57961 23457 19589 20098 13115 14924 43019 9358 30735 57699 45712 15376 56085 16460 23677 57450 19399 11005 17825 17608 15169 22788 18563 13317 13806 15742 51809 20859 25590 14719 20898 7128 21508 49046 22521 12650 18862 18334 23287 15571 13921 20274 49177 23492 15150 10489 13173 36394 20658 105841 19509 12947 19179 14087 41196 20319 15703 40285 25171 12415 28220 15093 38525 16050 25186 38588 14268 18513 14028 18353 45049 22963 17454 14835 19819 49313 18644 18175 46719 24555 16380 11160 19185 8030 19168 31075 19685 17413 18552 47197 26638 74511 32688 48892 22601 144653 68463 12762 41887 17350 16644 22880 93413 39902 27301 8899 8205 105414 19531 46890 7827 15419 12597 31736 10563 10720 21768 29396 21811 28226 13061 45037 12090 11983 7470 27509 21031 19505 56070 21107 55822 26348 31512 19221 12539 16152 27820 18649 16253 62859 26267 8706 30058 38654 11097 17081 39372 50418 18575 59484 23101 10914 45681 954 22847 15183 17681 16432 36228 39460 35532 15530 27994 25989 52853 25176 14656 24135 30022 44625 11716 28561 7273 43672 13931 13975 11356 49750 18193 12652 20234 16241 5323 6531 50933 61738 15901 11287 17295 50905 14568 18015 95638 1054 43941 27689 37500 18519 14539 11345 20132 17880 45534 9966 12943 20863 12799 52119 15860 13852 18667 19728 20607 18695 28689 39839 30023 43707 16667 23521 35548 21700 16002 13852 12300 52523 36471 45723 17522 14968 51712 14019 33380 23582 42729 33231 43106 14439 13665 16595 30600 21467 18251 12232 20304 15146 31328 19499 19287 16646 8518 49950 43881 16902 12528 22513 16935 63333 49457 43741 49389 39526 21744 16479 17234 20422 12914 18836 20559 6307 15105 19477 13752 27242 13789 20522 29309 63157 66085 16885 22690 53164 15734 24517 46939 15182 14452 23681 16946 27323 18870 14540 29869
2021-12-07 25550 25770 8180 15340 20640 13180 24350 21630 8642 39200 23180 22380 20520 30920 10570 36320 59870 49240 11950 33130 24080 20560 29140 30560 60970 40260 192100 18420 33210 26020 12980 13800 52880 10740 65460 18170 98010 23270 16840 49780 13580 25810 42310 79240 16070 48690 16770 16860 18290 18620 35910 32640 36450 16000 30440 17470 20780 62420 18050 28760 16030 23760 44790 6733 31210 29870 15550 22860 59680 56490 16190 15510 14080 21050 66820 8157 29730 1523 14730 10910 14020 71620 10090 94100 56390 8193 19130 58230 23560 19660 20180 13180 14980 43170 9396 30840 57890 46070 15460 56360 16550 23720 57570 19480 11070 17920 17680 15260 22910 18630 13390 13880 15790 52010 20940 25720 14840 21030 7154 21660 49140 22560 12690 18940 18500 23450 15670 13980 20360 49460 23600 15150 10550 13210 36540 20720 106100 19630 13020 19260 14140 41420 20480 15990 40530 25250 12470 28360 15190 38660 16100 25290 38710 14420 18550 14140 18490 45200 23060 17520 14910 19900 49480 18730 18280 46880 24830 16460 11200 19250 8090 19280 31220 19770 17500 18670 47400 26770 74650 32780 49120 22670 145000 68660 12940 42130 17440 16710 23010 93880 40040 27440 8955 8276 105600 19600 47100 7871 15510 12630 31880 10690 10780 22020 29530 21940 28290 13100 45330 12170 12040 7509 27600 21170 19630 56230 21210 56010 26440 31750 19280 12720 16210 27960 18810 16330 63020 26370 8784 30200 38800 11140 17160 39460 50610 18670 59730 23180 10950 45790 958 22950 15330 17730 16490 36370 39740 35810 15640 28040 26110 53080 25250 14720 24310 30060 44740 11750 28700 7311 43800 14000 14040 11420 49940 18240 12720 20340 16320 5381 6541 51100 61910 15940 11330 17370 51060 14600 18110 95890 1060 44220 27790 37640 18590 14590 11420 20230 17960 45770 10110 12990 21000 12840 52260 15920 14040 18860 19790 20720 18780 28740 40050 30190 43930 16760 23640 35730 21790 16060 13920 12360 52620 36580 45860 17620 15040 51910 14100 33580 23700 42850 33340 43250 14520 13750 16780 30810 21570 18380 12310 20410 15220 31460 19600 19410 16730 8689 50130 43950 17010 12590 22700 17140 63580 49580 43930 49610 39640 21830 16540 17350 20560 12980 18930 20680 6378 15150 19530 13810 27340 13930 20690 29420 63330 66440 16990 22820 53370 15820 24700 47070 15270 14540 23800 17040 27490 18950 14600 29980
2021-12-08 25600 25940 8180 15400 20720 13240 24450 21750 8696 39300 23340 22440 20670 31030 10600 36430 60010 49400 11990 33210 24160 20660 29260 30660 61280 40490 192600 18470 33300 26110 13030 13840 53060 10770 65820 18230 98230 23350 16910 49920 13610 25890 42460 79490 16140 48690 16840 16910 18380 18670 36020 32780 36550 16080 30620 17540 20840 62730 18090 28950 16060 23860 44900 6751 31310 29960 15650 22950 59930 56730 16270 15700 14110 21110 67080 8205 29840 1523 14810 10920 14080 71930 10140 94450 56560 8222 19250 58540 23650 19750 20250 13200 15030 43260 9440 30900 58060 46430 15530 56570 16710 23820 57750 19500 11120 18050 17730 15390 23050 18660 13470 13930 15850 52290 21030 25850 14950 21160 7171 21830 49150 22630 12700 19020 18640 23590 15760 14030 20440 49710 23700 15170 10590 13260 36670 20740 106300 19700 13060 19310 14170 41670 20700 16180 40740 25310 12570 28510 15290 38760 16150 25440 38800 14610 18600 14240 18630 45250 23180 17570 14980 20010 49600 18850 18410 47050 25070 16510 11240 19290 8123 19390 31390 19850 17590 18760 47580 26850 74860 32840 49370 22750 145400 68860 13160 42380 17530 16740 23110 94240 40160 27520 9004 8327 105900 19660 47240 7926 15580 12690 32020 10790 10820 22220 29730 22080 28350 13130 45600 12250 12140 7535 27710 21300 19740 56390 21300 56220 26560 31990 19310 12850 16270 28090 18950 16410 63220 26470 8862 30290 38970 11190 17170 39600 50800 18760 60010 23280 11000 45920 964 23010 15440 17780 16590 36520 39790 36110 15740 28090 26190 53300 25330 14770 24510 30140 44940 11810 28800 7357 43960 14050 14090 11490 50120 18250 12780 20420 16400 5426 6560 51260 62070 16000 11410 17430 51220 14650 18200 96190 1081 44480 27830 37740 18660 14640 11500 20270 18030 45940 10270 13050 21130 12870 52410 15970 14210 19040 19870 20840 18850 28820 40260 30260 44160 16850 23700 35840 21840 16130 13990 12450 52780 36700 46030 17690 15090 52080 14160 33820 23790 43040 33460 43380 14590 13860 16940 30980 21640 18500 12370 20460 15260 31500 19670 19530 16810 8800 50300 44080 17090 12620 22840 17330 63820 49710 44070 49770 39770 21890 16600 17450 20670 13040 19030 20800 6432 15200 19590 13840 27410 14060 20820 29480 63540 66870 17080 22920 53550 15880 24940 47210 15340 14590 23910 17120 27680 19010 14650 30090
2021-12-09 25660 26080 8189 15450 20800 13290 24560 21900 8731 39430 23490 22520 20810 31150 10640 36550 60190 49510 12030 33320 24250 20750 29370 30770 61570 40720 193100 18530 33380 26190 13070 13880 53200 10790 66160 18310 98430 23450 16980 50050 13650 25990 42650 79720 16210 48760 16910 16950 18480 18710 36140 32910 36620 16160 30770 17600 20920 62980 18130 29090 16120 23960 45070 6772 31410 30080 15740 23060 60140 56990 16340 15860 14150 21180 67350 8244 29970 1525 14870 10940 14130 72280 10190 94730 56700 8253 19350 58820 23740 19810 20320 13240 15090 43380 9481 30970 58210 46750 15610 56740 16830 23900 57950 19550 11180 18150 17780 15500 23190 18710 13530 13980 15920 52530 21120 25980 15040 21290 7193 21990 49200 22710 12720 19090 18790 23710 15850 14080 20520 49940 23810 15190 10640 13300 36780 20780 106600 19800 13110 19370 14220 41900 20890 16320 40990 25370 12650 28660 15370 38870 16200 25570 38900 14780 18640 14320 18760 45340 23290 17630 15030 20110 49730 18940 18530 47220 25300 16560 11270 19340 8170 19510 31540 19940 17670 18840 47730 26950 75040 32910 49600 22830 145700 69030 13370 42620 17600 16790 23220 94560 40280 27620 9055 8371 106100 19720 47410 7975 15660 12740 32160 10870 10870 22390 29900 22210 28410 13160 45880 12330 12210 7568 27810 21430 19860 56540 21370 56410 26670 32220 19360 12950 16320 28210 19070 16480 63390 26570 8928 30400 39100 11230 17210 39710 50970 18860 60260 23370 11040 46000 968 23080 15550 17820 16670 36650 39950 36400 15830 28160 26280 53510 25400 14820 24700 30200 45100 11860 28920 7398 44100 14100 14130 11560 50270 18280 12840 20500 16480 5463 6576 51410 62220 16040 11460 17500 51370 14690 18300 96450 1094 44740 27900 37850 18720 14690 11580 20340 18110 46130 10410 13100 21250 12910 52560 16020 14350 19220 19940 20960 18910 28890 40440 30370 44380 16940 23780 35950 21910 16200 14060 12530 52920 36810 46200 17770 15140 52220 14230 34050 23890 43210 33570 43500 14650 13960 17080 31130 21720 18620 12440 20530 15320 31580 19750 19650 16870 8890 50470 44200 17180 12660 22960 17510 64020 49830 44220 49960 39890 21950 16650 17560 20790 13090 19130 20920 6495 15240 19650 13880 27490 14180 20940 29560 63730 67250 17180 23030 53730 15960 25150 47330 15420 14650 24010 17200 27820 19060 14700 30190
2021-12-10 25710 26200 8206 15500 20870 13330 24680 22010 8761 39570 23620 22590 20940 31270 10690 36660 60380 49630 12060 33450 24360 20820 29480 30890 61830 40940 193500 18590 33440 26260 13110 13920 53320 10800 66470 18400 98620 23560 17050 50190 13700 26080 42850 79940 16270 48860 16980 17000 18570 18740 36240 33020 36690 16250 30930 17660 21020 63200 18170 29220 16180 24040 45280 6795 31470 30200 15830 23180 60360 57240 16400 16000 14200 21250 67570 8277 30110 1531 14930 10970 14170 72660 10250 94940 56840 8284 19460 59080 23830 19870 20400 13290 15140 43510 9521 31060 58350 47010 15690 56910 16940 23960 58130 19610 11240 18240 17840 15600 23310 18760 13600 14050 15960 52750 21200 26080 15120 21420 7216 22140 49270 22780 12750 19170 18900 23810 15940 14120 20600 50120 23910 15220 10690 13340 36880 20830 106800 19900 13170 19440 14260 42120 21070 16460 41190 25440 12710 28800 15450 38990 16250 25680 39010 14940 18680 14390 18890 45460 23390 17690 15080 20190 49870 19030 18630 47360 25480 16600 11300 19400 8222 19610 31690 20020 17740 18910 47890 27060 75190 32990 49830 22900 145900 69170 13550 42850 17670 16840 23330 94890 40400 27740 9106 8412 106400 19770 47580 8021 15750 12780 32300 10940 10920 22550 30040 22330 28470 13200 46150 12410 12280 7600 27900 21560 19940 56680 21450 56590 26760 32450 19410 13040 16380 28320 19190 16560 63540 26670 8983 30520 39210 11280 17270 39850 51120 18940 60500 23450 11080 46100 972 23170 15620 17850 16740 36760 40140 36670 15910 28220 26390 53720 25470 14870 24880 30270 45240 11900 29050 7435 44220 14170 14170 11620 50390 18320 12900 20590 16560 5491 6589 51540 62360 16090 11510 17560 51510 14730 18390 96640 1104 44950 27980 37970 18770 14740 11650 20430 18190 46330 10540 13150 21310 12940 52710 16080 14480 19400 20010 21070 18980 28950 40610 30500 44590 17020 23880 36030 21980 16250 14130 12590 53040 36900 46370 17860 15210 52340 14300 34250 24000 43350 33680 43610 14700 14050 17200 31260 21810 18730 12510 20610 15380 31680 19840 19770 16920 8963 50640 44330 17270 12710 23070 17680 64180 49950 44380 50160 40000 22030 16710 17670 20920 13140 19200 21040 6552 15280 19700 13930 27580 14260 21040 29650 63900 67610 17270 23150 53880 16030 25340 47440 15500 14730 24100 17280 27960 19110 14750 30300
2021-12-11 25760 26310 8225 15540 20920 13380 24810 22130 8784 39720 23720 22640 21040 31400 10740 36780 60580 49730 12090 33590 24460 20900 29580 30980 62080 41160 193900 18660 33480 26320 13150 13960 53400 10830 66740 18480 98770 23660 17120 50310 13760 26170 43050 80150 16320 48980 17040 17050 18660 18770 36330 33130 36750 16340 31070 17700 21120 63390 18220 29320 16240 24110 45490 6818 31540 30330 15910 23300 60510 57430 16460 16130 14260 21320 67730 8309 30250 1537 14990 10990 14220 73040 10300 95130 56970 8317 19560 59350 23920 19910 20480 13340 15190 43640 9560 31140 58460 47230 15760 57050 17040 24020 58290 19670 11300 18330 17900 15700 23430 18810 13640 14110 16000 52960 21270 26180 15200 21540 7240 22290 49350 22850 12780 19250 19030 23890 16040 14150 20680 50260 24010 15260 10740 13380 36950 20880 107000 20010 13230 19510 14310 42340 21240 16540 41350 25510 12770 28940 15530 39110 16300 25790 39110 15090 18720 14460 19020 45580 23490 17740 15120 20280 50020 19120 18740 47500 25670 16630 11330 19460 8276 19720 31840 20100 17790 18970 48000 27170 75350 33060 50050 22940 146200 69320 13740 43080 17710 16900 23450 95180 40530 27860 9158 8438 106500 19820 47770 8066 15830 12810 32440 10990 10970 22670 30190 22450 28530 13240 46420 12490 12350 7633 27990 21700 20010 56780 21500 56780 26860 32680 19460 13120 16440 28400 19270 16630 63670 26770 9041 30640 39300 11320 17330 39940 51240 19030 60730 23530 11110 46160 975 23260 15690 17860 16800 36850 40350 36940 15970 28250 26500 53930 25540 14930 25060 30340 45370 11950 29180 7473 44320 14230 14190 11700 50490 18360 12960 20690 16630 5508 6602 51650 62460 16130 11560 17630 51620 14760 18480 96810 1112 45120 28060 38100 18810 14790 11720 20510 18260 46530 10680 13200 21400 12970 52820 16140 14620 19580 20070 21180 19020 29010 40740 30630 44810 17110 23970 36100 22060 16310 14200 12650 53180 36990 46470 17950 15270 52430 14370 34460 24110 43490 33780 43700 14760 14140 17300 31370 21900 18850 12580 20690 15440 31780 19930 19890 16970 9026 50810 44450 17370 12750 23160 17840 64310 50040 44550 50360 40120 22100 16770 17780 21050 13180 19270 21160 6604 15310 19760 13980 27660 14350 21110 29750 64030 67970 17370 23270 54000 16110 25530 47540 15580 14800 24190 17370 28080 19140 14810 30400
2021-12-12 25810 26420 8248 15570 20980 13420 24940 22260 8799 39870 23830 22690 21130 31530 10790 36890 60780 49840 12120 33730 24570 20970 29680 31080 62310 41380 194400 18720 33530 26360 13190 14000 53490 10850 67040 18570 98910 23770 17190 50450 13810 26260 43260 80390 16380 49110 17110 17100 18760 18790 36420 33240 36800 16420 31220 17760 21220 63560 18260 29420 16310 24190 45720 6843 31580 30460 15990 23440 60690 57670 16530 16250 14320 21390 67900 8338 30390 1544 15040 11020 14270 73430 10360 95340 57090 8349 19670 59610 24020 19950 20560 13390 15260 43780 9599 31240 58590 47440 15840 57190 17140 24070 58480 19750 11360 18420 17970 15790 23540 18870 13680 14180 16040 53160 21350 26290 15270 21670 7265 22430 49440 22910 12820 19320 19150 23980 16130 14190 20760 50410 24110 15280 10800 13420 37040 20940 107200 20120 13300 19580 14350 42560 21400 16630 41540 25580 12830 29070 15610 39240 16350 25890 39230 15240 18760 14540 19150 45710 23590 17810 15160 20360 50170 19210 18840 47670 25830 16660 11360 19520 8334 19830 31980 20190 17850 19030 48140 27290 75490 33140 50270 23000 146400 69460 13920 43310 17770 16960 23580 95480 40660 27990 9211 8466 106700 19870 47960 8109 15920 12850 32570 11040 11020 22810 30330 22570 28590 13280 46700 12570 12400 7668 28080 21830 20080 56910 21550 56960 26950 32910 19510 13200 16500 28510 19360 16700 63830 26860 9097 30760 39410 11360 17390 40040 51400 19120 60950 23610 11150 46240 979 23350 15750 17880 16860 36950 40580 37200 16030 28310 26610 54130 25610 14990 25230 30410 45500 11980 29310 7508 44410 14290 14220 11750 50590 18400 13020 20780 16710 5530 6613 51760 62580 16160 11600 17700 51740 14800 18570 97000 1118 45310 28150 38230 18860 14840 11790 20610 18330 46740 10800 13250 21470 13020 52940 16190 14750 19760 20130 21290 19070 29060 40880 30780 45020 17200 24080 36170 22140 16360 14260 12710 53340 37080 46610 18050 15340 52520 14440 34660 24220 43620 33880 43800 14810 14230 17410 31480 21990 18980 12650 20780 15510 31900 20030 20010 17020 9082 50970 44590 17470 12810 23240 18000 64460 50140 44720 50570 40240 22180 16830 17890 21180 13230 19350 21280 6658 15360 19810 14030 27750 14420 21200 29850 64200 68310 17460 23390 54160 16180 25710 47640 15660 14880 24290 17450 28220 19180 14860 30500
2021-12-13 25860 26520 8271 15600 21040 13460 25070 22420 8830 40030 24010 22760 21270 31660 10850 37010 61000 49970 12150 33880 24680 21030 29780 31200 62560 41600 194800 18790 33600 26440 13230 14040 53620 10890 67350 18650 99100 23890 17270 50610 13870 26360 43470 80680 16490 49250 17170 17150 18850 18820 36520 33340 36880 16510 31360 17810 21330 63770 18300 29490 16380 24310 45950 6867 31710 30590 16070 23570 60930 57900 16590 16370 14380 21470 68120 8367 30540 1552 15100 11050 14340 73840 10420 95640 57260 8383 19770 59870 24110 20030 20640 13450 15320 43930 9637 31340 58750 47750 15920 57360 17230 24120 58690 19820 11420 18520 18030 15880 23660 18930 13750 14240 16100 53360 21420 26430 15390 21800 7290 22580 49540 23010 12860 19400 19250 24110 16230 14240 20840 50620 24220 15360 10850 13460 37160 20990 107400 20230 13360 19650 14400 42780 21560 16720 41700 25650 12880 29210 15680 39370 16400 25990 39340 15390 18800 14620 19280 45850 23690 17870 15200 20430 50320 19290 18940 47830 26010 16690 11410 19580 8393 19940 32120 20270 17920 19110 48330 27410 75630 33220 50490 23070 146800 69660 14100 43540 17840 17020 23700 95750 40780 28120 9263 8520 107100 19930 48160 8152 16010 12880 32710 11110 11080 22960 30460 22690 28640 13320 46980 12650 12460 7703 28160 21960 20160 57100 21640 57140 27040 33140 19570 13300 16550 28630 19470 16780 64030 26950 9141 30890 39550 11400 17460 40210 51600 19210 61170 23690 11190 46340 982 23440 15830 17910 16920 37090 40830 37460 16100 28390 26730 54340 25680 15050 25410 30520 45620 12020 29450 7544 44540 14360 14260 11820 50720 18450 13090 20880 16780 5570 6624 51930 62740 16200 11650 17770 51910 14830 18670 97260 1124 45550 28240 38360 18940 14890 11870 20710 18410 46960 10930 13300 21580 13070 53100 16250 14870 19940 20190 21400 19150 29120 41040 30930 45240 17290 24180 36250 22230 16420 14330 12770 53510 37190 46810 18140 15400 52650 14510 34860 24330 43750 33980 43930 14870 14310 17530 31620 22080 19100 12730 20870 15570 32020 20130 20130 17080 9186 51140 44780 17570 12860 23340 18150 64630 50270 44890 50780 40360 22260 16890 18000 21310 13290 19460 21400 6722 15400 19860 14080 27840 14510 21340 29950 64390 68660 17560 23520 54330 16260 25880 47770 15740 14960 24360 17540 28410 19230 14910 30600

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-12-07 to 2021-12-13

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-12-06 25496 25667 8158 15253 20563 13135 24208 21517 8570 39028 23008 22316 20338 30778 10512 36192 59644 49068 11917 32964 23958 20495 29040 30444 60660 40015 191539 18347 33148 25894 12941 13758 52722 10741 65085 18072 97817 23152 16760 49683 13520 25715 42087 79015 16003 48545 16702 16806 18190 18561 35821 32535 36358 15907 30295 17384 20658 62095 18002 28527 15954 23653 44530 6708 31116 29725 15469 22715 59475 56282 16131 15366 14013 20970 66530 8129 29573 1514 14664 10881 13944 71193 10025 93747 56236 8159 19028 57961 23457 19589 20098 13115 14924 43019 9358 30735 57699 45712 15376 56085 16460 23677 57450 19399 11005 17825 17608 15169 22788 18563 13317 13806 15742 51809 20859 25590 14719 20898 7128 21508 49046 22521 12650 18862 18334 23287 15571 13921 20274 49177 23492 15150 10489 13173 36394 20658 105841 19509 12947 19179 14087 41196 20319 15703 40285 25171 12415 28220 15093 38525 16050 25186 38588 14268 18513 14028 18353 45049 22963 17454 14835 19819 49313 18644 18175 46719 24555 16380 11160 19185 8030 19168 31075 19685 17413 18552 47197 26638 74511 32688 48892 22601 144653 68463 12762 41887 17350 16644 22880 93413 39902 27301 8899 8205 105414 19531 46890 7827 15419 12597 31736 10563 10720 21768 29396 21811 28226 13061 45037 12090 11983 7470 27509 21031 19505 56070 21107 55822 26348 31512 19221 12539 16152 27820 18649 16253 62859 26267 8706 30058 38654 11097 17081 39372 50418 18575 59484 23101 10914 45681 954 22847 15183 17681 16432 36228 39460 35532 15530 27994 25989 52853 25176 14656 24135 30022 44625 11716 28561 7273 43672 13931 13975 11356 49750 18193 12652 20234 16241 5323 6531 50933 61738 15901 11287 17295 50905 14568 18015 95638 1054 43941 27689 37500 18519 14539 11345 20132 17880 45534 9966 12943 20863 12799 52119 15860 13852 18667 19728 20607 18695 28689 39839 30023 43707 16667 23521 35548 21700 16002 13852 12300 52523 36471 45723 17522 14968 51712 14019 33380 23582 42729 33231 43106 14439 13665 16595 30600 21467 18251 12232 20304 15146 31328 19499 19287 16646 8518 49950 43881 16902 12528 22513 16935 63333 49457 43741 49389 39526 21744 16479 17234 20422 12914 18836 20559 6307 15105 19477 13752 27242 13789 20522 29309 63157 66085 16885 22690 53164 15734 24517 46939 15182 14452 23681 16946 27323 18870 14540 29869
2021-12-07 25590 25770 8202 15290 20640 13180 24360 21670 8611 39190 23170 22380 20490 30930 10570 36310 59880 49220 11950 33140 24080 20560 29160 30560 60970 40180 192100 18420 33220 25970 12980 13810 52840 10790 65450 18170 98010 23280 16840 49860 13580 25790 42270 79310 16090 48780 16770 16860 18290 18610 35930 32630 36450 16020 30440 17450 20800 62330 18050 28630 16050 23790 44770 6735 31220 29850 15560 22850 59740 56550 16190 15460 14090 21050 66780 8153 29730 1522 14730 10910 14010 71680 10090 94050 56400 8192 19140 58230 23560 19660 20190 13190 14990 43160 9391 30850 57860 46020 15460 56280 16530 23710 57670 19480 11060 17930 17680 15260 22910 18630 13380 13880 15790 52010 20940 25730 14840 21030 7153 21660 49210 22600 12720 18950 18440 23420 15670 13980 20370 49410 23600 15220 10550 13210 36510 20750 106100 19620 13020 19260 14130 41410 20460 15830 40450 25250 12470 28350 15180 38670 16120 25280 38710 14380 18550 14120 18460 45210 23060 17520 14880 19890 49480 18740 18280 46890 24730 16420 11200 19260 8084 19280 31220 19760 17500 18630 47380 26770 74680 32780 49130 22680 145000 68680 12890 42110 17420 16720 23020 93710 40040 27470 8955 8253 105700 19590 47120 7870 15510 12630 31880 10630 10780 21940 29530 21940 28290 13100 45320 12170 12030 7511 27570 21170 19600 56230 21190 56020 26440 31740 19290 12660 16210 27940 18770 16330 63060 26370 8770 30210 38800 11140 17160 39520 50600 18650 59700 23180 10950 45790 957 22960 15270 17720 16490 36370 39800 35730 15600 28070 26120 53050 25250 14720 24320 30110 44740 11750 28750 7312 43810 14000 14010 11430 49910 18260 12720 20340 16310 5366 6562 51120 61900 15940 11330 17380 51070 14620 18110 95890 1061 44180 27800 37670 18590 14610 11420 20300 17960 45770 10070 12990 20990 12850 52300 15930 13990 18840 19790 20730 18790 28740 40010 30180 43930 16750 23640 35680 21800 16060 13920 12350 52700 36580 45900 17620 15050 51850 14090 33560 23700 42840 33340 43260 14510 13760 16740 30740 21570 18380 12310 20410 15220 31500 19610 19410 16710 8632 50120 44060 17010 12590 22620 17080 63490 49590 43950 49620 39650 21830 16550 17360 20570 12980 18940 20680 6366 15160 19530 13820 27340 13900 20670 29400 63340 66460 17000 22830 53350 15820 24670 47060 15270 14550 23780 17050 27500 18920 14600 29980
2021-12-08 25700 25900 8244 15320 20710 13240 24500 21810 8656 39340 23330 22440 20660 31070 10620 36430 60100 49360 11970 33300 24200 20640 29260 30680 61270 40320 192600 18480 33290 26050 13020 13850 52980 10840 65810 18260 98220 23380 16910 50020 13650 25880 42460 79560 16160 49010 16830 16910 18390 18650 36040 32740 36550 16130 30580 17510 20920 62590 18080 28750 16110 23920 44990 6756 31330 29970 15640 22960 59980 56820 16260 15580 14150 21120 67020 8180 29880 1528 14800 10940 14070 72130 10150 94360 56560 8228 19260 58500 23660 19730 20280 13230 15040 43310 9433 30950 58010 46360 15540 56460 16620 23770 57880 19560 11130 18050 17750 15360 23040 18690 13450 13960 15850 52210 21020 25860 14950 21180 7179 21820 49360 22690 12780 19030 18550 23560 15770 14030 20440 49630 23710 15310 10600 13260 36630 20840 106300 19740 13080 19330 14170 41600 20610 15980 40580 25310 12530 28500 15260 38790 16190 25400 38810 14480 18590 14230 18570 45360 23180 17590 14910 19960 49640 18840 18390 47060 24910 16460 11240 19320 8148 19400 31360 19850 17590 18710 47540 26890 74850 32860 49360 22740 145400 68880 13010 42310 17500 16770 23150 93980 40170 27620 9017 8298 106000 19660 47330 7917 15600 12660 32030 10720 10830 22130 29670 22050 28360 13140 45580 12260 12100 7549 27630 21320 19700 56390 21270 56200 26540 31930 19340 12780 16270 28070 18890 16400 63250 26470 8831 30330 38960 11180 17230 39650 50770 18710 59910 23260 10990 45910 960 23050 15370 17750 16550 36510 40030 35930 15690 28130 26240 53220 25320 14780 24520 30200 44870 11790 28920 7350 43970 14070 14050 11520 50080 18330 12790 20430 16410 5406 6594 51280 62030 15990 11380 17450 51220 14660 18200 96150 1070 44410 27890 37810 18650 14660 11490 20460 18040 45980 10170 13040 21120 12890 52450 16000 14110 19000 19860 20850 18850 28810 40200 30330 44130 16840 23740 35780 21880 16110 13990 12400 52870 36680 46060 17720 15110 51990 14160 33760 23820 42970 33450 43380 14580 13860 16890 30900 21660 18510 12390 20490 15280 31640 19720 19540 16770 8728 50270 44190 17110 12640 22730 17200 63670 49710 44130 49860 39780 21900 16610 17500 20710 13040 19030 20810 6417 15200 19580 13870 27440 14000 20790 29500 63520 66850 17100 22970 53530 15900 24860 47170 15360 14620 23880 17130 27700 18960 14650 30080
2021-12-09 25800 26010 8287 15350 20770 13290 24630 21950 8690 39490 23480 22500 20820 31200 10680 36550 60310 49480 11990 33450 24320 20710 29360 30790 61540 40450 193100 18550 33370 26130 13060 13890 53110 10890 66150 18350 98410 23490 16990 50170 13710 25970 42670 79800 16230 49240 16880 16960 18480 18690 36160 32840 36630 16240 30730 17570 21040 62830 18110 28830 16170 24050 45230 6778 31430 30080 15730 23070 60190 57080 16330 15690 14210 21190 67280 8205 30040 1535 14860 10970 14120 72570 10210 94630 56710 8264 19370 58760 23750 19790 20360 13290 15090 43460 9472 31040 58140 46680 15620 56630 16700 23820 58090 19630 11190 18140 17810 15450 23160 18750 13510 14030 15910 52390 21090 25990 15050 21320 7205 21980 49510 22770 12840 19120 18650 23690 15870 14080 20520 49850 23820 15380 10650 13290 36750 20920 106600 19870 13140 19400 14210 41790 20750 16120 40720 25360 12580 28640 15330 38910 16260 25500 38920 14590 18630 14330 18670 45510 23290 17650 14950 20030 49790 18940 18490 47230 25080 16510 11270 19370 8212 19510 31490 19940 17670 18790 47680 27010 75010 32940 49590 22800 145700 69050 13120 42520 17570 16830 23270 94230 40290 27760 9073 8339 106200 19720 47550 7962 15690 12700 32190 10800 10890 22300 29810 22170 28410 13180 45830 12340 12160 7588 27680 21460 19800 56540 21340 56380 26640 32130 19390 12890 16330 28180 19000 16480 63420 26560 8885 30450 39080 11220 17290 39770 50920 18780 60120 23340 11030 46000 963 23150 15470 17780 16610 36630 40280 36120 15760 28190 26360 53390 25390 14840 24700 30270 45000 11830 29080 7386 44110 14140 14090 11590 50220 18400 12850 20520 16490 5443 6622 51430 62160 16020 11430 17510 51370 14710 18300 96380 1076 44650 27970 37940 18700 14710 11560 20620 18120 46190 10260 13090 21230 12930 52610 16050 14220 19140 19920 20960 18910 28860 40370 30480 44300 16930 23850 35880 21960 16160 14060 12450 53030 36790 46200 17810 15180 52130 14240 33950 23940 43100 33550 43500 14640 13950 17020 31050 21760 18630 12460 20580 15350 31780 19830 19650 16820 8813 50400 44300 17200 12690 22840 17310 63820 49830 44300 50070 39910 21970 16660 17640 20840 13090 19130 20940 6469 15250 19640 13920 27530 14100 20900 29600 63680 67210 17190 23090 53710 15970 25030 47270 15450 14710 23970 17220 27870 19010 14710 30180
2021-12-10 25900 26120 8329 15380 20840 13340 24770 22090 8720 39640 23620 22560 20970 31330 10740 36650 60520 49610 12010 33600 24420 20780 29460 30900 61800 40580 193500 18610 33440 26200 13100 13930 53220 10930 66470 18440 98590 23580 17070 50320 13780 26060 42870 80040 16300 49480 16930 17010 18580 18730 36260 32940 36710 16350 30870 17630 21160 63040 18140 28910 16230 24160 45470 6801 31510 30190 15810 23170 60410 57340 16390 15790 14270 21260 67500 8229 30190 1542 14920 11000 14180 72950 10280 94830 56860 8300 19470 59020 23840 19850 20450 13340 15150 43610 9511 31130 58250 46960 15700 56790 16780 23880 58290 19710 11260 18230 17870 15540 23280 18810 13580 14090 15960 52560 21160 26100 15120 21450 7232 22130 49660 22850 12900 19200 18750 23800 15970 14130 20600 50040 23930 15460 10710 13330 36850 21000 106800 19990 13200 19470 14260 41980 20880 16260 40860 25420 12640 28770 15400 39040 16330 25590 39000 14700 18670 14420 18760 45660 23380 17720 14980 20100 49950 19020 18580 47380 25220 16540 11310 19420 8276 19620 31630 20020 17750 18870 47820 27140 75130 33030 49780 22860 146000 69180 13240 42720 17640 16900 23390 94470 40400 27880 9128 8378 106500 19780 47730 8006 15770 12720 32330 10870 10940 22470 29940 22280 28470 13220 46090 12430 12220 7628 27740 21600 19870 56690 21410 56540 26730 32320 19450 13000 16380 28290 19110 16550 63580 26660 8936 30570 39200 11260 17360 39910 51060 18840 60290 23410 11070 46100 965 23240 15570 17800 16670 36720 40530 36300 15830 28250 26490 53560 25470 14900 24880 30340 45110 11870 29240 7422 44230 14210 14120 11660 50340 18460 12910 20610 16570 5476 6649 51560 62250 16060 11470 17580 51520 14750 18390 96590 1081 44870 28040 38070 18750 14750 11630 20770 18200 46400 10340 13140 21300 12960 52750 16110 14320 19290 19970 21070 18970 28920 40540 30640 44470 17010 23950 35970 22050 16210 14130 12500 53180 36890 46340 17910 15250 52250 14310 34140 24060 43220 33650 43620 14700 14050 17140 31190 21840 18760 12540 20660 15420 31910 19940 19760 16860 8888 50510 44400 17300 12740 22950 17410 63930 49950 44470 50270 40030 22040 16720 17780 20960 13150 19210 21060 6520 15290 19680 13970 27620 14170 21000 29710 63820 67560 17280 23220 53860 16040 25200 47360 15530 14790 24070 17290 28040 19050 14760 30270
2021-12-11 25970 26210 8370 15410 20890 13380 24900 22220 8743 39780 23750 22610 21100 31440 10800 36730 60690 49720 12030 33740 24510 20850 29530 31010 62020 40700 194000 18680 33480 26270 13140 13970 53310 10980 66760 18530 98770 23660 17130 50460 13840 26150 43050 80260 16350 49720 16980 17060 18650 18760 36350 33040 36780 16450 30990 17680 21260 63210 18170 28960 16290 24280 45710 6824 31590 30300 15890 23270 60560 57540 16450 15890 14330 21300 67660 8252 30340 1551 14980 11020 14230 73290 10340 95000 56990 8336 19570 59280 23940 19890 20530 13370 15200 43760 9549 31220 58340 47220 15780 56950 16850 23920 58440 19780 11320 18310 17930 15630 23390 18870 13630 14140 16000 52720 21230 26210 15190 21560 7259 22280 49800 22940 12960 19270 18850 23900 16060 14150 20670 50180 24040 15540 10760 13360 36950 21070 107000 20110 13270 19550 14300 42170 21010 16370 40990 25470 12690 28910 15460 39150 16400 25690 39090 14790 18710 14510 18860 45800 23450 17780 15010 20160 50110 19110 18670 47530 25370 16580 11330 19470 8335 19730 31760 20090 17810 18930 47930 27260 75260 33110 49950 22880 146300 69310 13350 42910 17700 16950 23490 94710 40500 28000 9187 8403 106700 19830 47910 8050 15860 12750 32480 10930 11000 22630 30070 22370 28530 13250 46340 12510 12270 7662 27790 21720 19920 56840 21470 56690 26830 32510 19500 13110 16430 28370 19210 16630 63700 26750 8989 30690 39290 11300 17410 40010 51190 18910 60460 23480 11100 46180 968 23340 15660 17810 16710 36790 40780 36480 15880 28300 26600 53730 25540 14950 25050 30410 45220 11900 29400 7457 44320 14280 14150 11720 50430 18530 12960 20700 16640 5507 6675 51690 62320 16090 11510 17640 51650 14800 18490 96770 1086 45070 28110 38180 18800 14780 11710 20900 18270 46610 10420 13180 21380 13000 52860 16160 14420 19430 20020 21180 19000 28970 40700 30800 44620 17100 24060 36040 22130 16260 14200 12540 53330 36990 46430 18000 15310 52360 14370 34330 24180 43330 33750 43720 14750 14140 17240 31310 21920 18890 12610 20720 15480 32030 20030 19860 16910 8967 50610 44490 17400 12780 23040 17510 64020 50050 44620 50460 40150 22110 16780 17910 21080 13200 19300 21170 6571 15310 19710 14020 27700 14240 21070 29810 63910 67900 17370 23320 53970 16100 25360 47430 15600 14850 24160 17350 28190 19090 14810 30370
2021-12-12 26050 26320 8411 15430 20940 13430 25030 22350 8766 39920 23880 22650 21240 31570 10860 36840 60870 49830 12050 33880 24620 20910 29620 31120 62230 40830 194400 18750 33530 26340 13180 14000 53420 11020 67060 18610 98920 23750 17200 50590 13910 26240 43240 80490 16420 49960 17030 17110 18730 18780 36440 33140 36840 16560 31120 17730 21380 63420 18190 29040 16350 24390 45960 6847 31680 30410 15970 23370 60740 57770 16520 15980 14380 21360 67850 8276 30500 1560 15030 11040 14280 73670 10400 95220 57120 8372 19670 59530 24030 19940 20620 13410 15250 43910 9588 31320 58460 47470 15860 57110 16910 23970 58610 19860 11390 18390 17990 15710 23490 18930 13680 14190 16040 52880 21300 26320 15270 21700 7287 22420 49960 23020 13020 19350 18950 24010 16160 14200 20750 50350 24140 15620 10810 13390 37050 21150 107100 20240 13330 19620 14350 42350 21130 16490 41130 25520 12740 29040 15520 39250 16470 25790 39180 14890 18740 14590 18960 45950 23530 17850 15040 20220 50260 19190 18750 47680 25500 16610 11370 19510 8404 19840 31890 20160 17890 19000 48050 27390 75380 33190 50130 22910 146500 69440 13450 43110 17770 17010 23610 94930 40610 28150 9244 8437 106900 19890 48110 8093 15950 12770 32630 11000 11050 22790 30200 22480 28580 13290 46600 12600 12320 7702 27840 21860 19980 56990 21530 56860 26930 32700 19540 13210 16490 28460 19300 16700 63840 26840 9038 30820 39410 11340 17470 40120 51330 18980 60650 23540 11140 46270 971 23430 15750 17830 16770 36870 41020 36660 15930 28350 26720 53900 25610 15010 25210 30470 45320 11940 29540 7492 44410 14350 14180 11780 50540 18600 13020 20790 16710 5538 6698 51810 62390 16120 11560 17710 51780 14840 18580 96980 1090 45290 28180 38310 18840 14820 11780 21050 18340 46820 10500 13220 21460 13030 52970 16210 14520 19580 20080 21290 19040 29030 40860 30960 44760 17180 24170 36120 22200 16310 14260 12580 53480 37090 46520 18090 15370 52480 14450 34510 24290 43440 33850 43820 14810 14240 17370 31440 22010 19010 12690 20800 15550 32160 20120 19970 16950 9037 50700 44570 17500 12820 23140 17600 64110 50150 44790 50630 40280 22180 16840 18050 21200 13250 19390 21300 6622 15360 19740 14070 27790 14310 21140 29920 64030 68240 17460 23440 54130 16180 25520 47490 15680 14920 24250 17420 28350 19130 14870 30470
2021-12-13 26190 26430 8458 15460 21010 13480 25170 22490 8815 40070 24050 22710 21400 31710 10920 36960 61090 49970 12070 34020 24740 20980 29730 31230 62480 40960 194900 18810 33600 26420 13220 14050 53550 11070 67390 18710 99110 23860 17280 50750 13980 26330 43470 80760 16500 50200 17090 17160 18820 18820 36550 33240 36930 16670 31270 17790 21500 63680 18220 29120 16430 24510 46210 6871 31790 30530 16050 23490 60980 58020 16580 16090 14450 21440 68110 8298 30660 1569 15100 11080 14350 74120 10470 95560 57280 8409 19790 59790 24130 20010 20710 13470 15310 44060 9625 31430 58620 47820 15950 57290 16990 24030 58820 19950 11450 18490 18050 15810 23600 18990 13760 14270 16110 53050 21370 26460 15400 21840 7315 22570 50110 23110 13080 19440 19040 24150 16270 14250 20820 50580 24250 15720 10870 13430 37170 21230 107400 20370 13400 19690 14390 42540 21260 16650 41270 25570 12780 29180 15590 39380 16540 25910 39280 14990 18780 14690 19050 46120 23640 17910 15070 20290 50430 19280 18870 47840 25660 16660 11420 19570 8468 19950 32030 20260 17970 19100 48220 27520 75520 33280 50370 22970 147000 69650 13590 43320 17840 17070 23730 95190 40730 28290 9303 8508 107200 19950 48350 8137 16030 12800 32780 11090 11110 22960 30320 22590 28650 13340 46860 12680 12390 7740 27890 22010 20060 57150 21610 57040 27020 32900 19600 13320 16540 28590 19430 16780 64050 26940 9086 30950 39550 11380 17540 40270 51500 19050 60850 23620 11180 46370 974 23530 15840 17850 16830 37000 41260 36850 16010 28420 26850 54070 25680 15070 25400 30560 45440 11980 29710 7527 44540 14420 14220 11860 50690 18670 13090 20880 16800 5576 6732 51970 62520 16160 11600 17780 51940 14890 18680 97210 1094 45540 28250 38460 18900 14890 11850 21210 18420 47040 10600 13270 21570 13080 53130 16280 14630 19740 20130 21410 19120 29080 41030 31130 44970 17260 24290 36230 22300 16360 14330 12640 53660 37200 46670 18200 15450 52620 14530 34710 24420 43560 33950 43950 14860 14330 17510 31610 22100 19140 12770 20890 15620 32310 20240 20090 17000 9156 50820 44690 17610 12870 23260 17710 64270 50280 44990 50850 40420 22250 16900 18180 21360 13310 19480 21440 6674 15410 19780 14120 27900 14400 21300 30040 64190 68580 17560 23580 54330 16250 25700 47600 15790 15010 24360 17530 28530 19180 14920 30570

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.