COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-12-14

	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	2021-08-31	2021-08-30	2021-11-30	2021-09-14	2021-09-26	2021-11-04	--	--	2021-08-24	2021-09-01	2021-11-21	2021-09-27	2021-11-22	2021-10-11	--	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	2021-07-04	2021-09-26	2021-07-06	--	2021-10-03	2021-10-12	2021-10-08	2021-07-12	2021-07-07	12-29	2021-09-14	12-27	2021-07-08	2021-10-08	2021-10-03	2021-05-10	--	2021-12-01	--	2021-07-07	2021-11-23	2021-10-10	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-11-28	2021-11-30	2021-07-07	--	--	2021-10-08	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-07	--	2021-10-11	2021-10-04	--	--	2021-10-06	--	2021-10-06	2021-07-07	2021-08-29	2021-07-07	2021-11-05	--	2021-10-10	--	2021-10-11	2021-10-10	--	2021-10-04	--	2021-10-14	--	--	2021-10-04	2021-08-22	2021-08-24	--	2021-10-26	2021-09-09	2021-10-18	2021-08-30	2021-11-21	2021-10-13	2021-07-02	2021-07-07	2021-10-11	2021-11-22	--	--	2021-10-06	2021-10-12	--	2021-09-19	2021-11-30	2021-10-04	2021-08-13	2021-07-07	2021-11-22	2021-08-03	2021-07-07	2021-08-16	2021-06-21	2021-07-08	2021-08-29	2021-10-17	2021-10-10	2021-08-18	--	--	2021-10-05	2021-06-13	2021-10-05	2021-08-22	2021-07-06	2021-10-08	--	2021-11-15	2021-10-12	2021-10-02	--	2021-07-09	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-06	2021-11-26	2021-08-25	2021-11-23	2021-10-05	2021-08-13	2021-08-29	2021-11-30	2021-11-30	2021-10-11	2021-10-12	2021-10-15	2021-07-07	2021-08-23	2021-11-21	2021-10-11	2021-10-11	2021-07-07	--	--	2021-11-08	--	2021-10-05	2021-11-09	--	2021-11-30	--	2021-11-22	2021-10-04	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-05	2021-11-21	2021-11-28	2021-07-08	2021-09-16	2021-07-07	2021-10-06	2021-11-03	2021-07-07	2021-11-06	2021-10-11	2021-12-01	--	2021-06-23	2021-08-23	2021-10-04	2021-11-30	2021-11-15	--	--	2021-09-17	2021-10-11	2021-07-07	--	2021-10-06	12-27	--	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-01-03	2021-11-30	--	2021-10-04	2021-07-21	--	12-26	2021-10-12	2021-11-29	2021-11-21	2021-11-16	2021-07-08	2021-08-10	2021-11-29	2021-11-13	2021-10-11	12-08	--	2021-11-15	--	--	2021-11-07	2021-11-09	2021-07-07	2021-08-25	2021-07-07	--	2021-10-10	2021-11-05	2021-09-07	2021-12-01	2021-07-06	2021-07-03	--	2021-07-30	2021-10-12	--	2021-08-26	2021-11-14	2021-10-04	2021-07-05	--	2021-10-11	2021-08-22	2021-09-21	--	2021-10-10	2021-10-11	2021-12-01	2021-11-30	2021-10-04	2021-10-12	--	2021-07-07	2021-09-27	2021-10-05	2021-07-07	2021-10-16	--	2021-10-13	2021-07-07	2021-06-22	2021-10-05	2021-12-01	2021-12-03	2021-10-09	2021-07-06	--	2021-10-10	2021-10-09	2021-10-06	--	2021-08-23	2021-09-11	2021-10-11	--	2021-11-16	2021-07-05	2021-10-13	2021-06-28	2021-11-22	2021-10-08	2021-09-14	2021-11-29	--	2021-11-23	2021-11-09	2021-10-10	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-11-07	12-23	2021-10-11	2021-06-28	2021-11-05	--	2021-07-08	07-21	2021-11-08	2021-10-11	2021-07-06	2021-10-07	2021-08-18	2021-11-30	--	2021-09-19	2021-10-11	--	2021-10-18	2021-10-08	2021-09-26	2021-08-23	2021-10-10	--	--	2021-10-09	2021-10-10	2021-10-10	2021-06-27	--	2021-11-29	--	2021-11-23	--	2021-10-10	2021-09-13	2021-10-06	2021-11-14	2021-08-25	--	2021-07-06	2021-10-03	2021-11-30	2021-10-07	2021-07-05	--	2021-10-11	2021-11-23	2021-09-26	2021-10-10	2021-07-07	2021-11-23	--	2021-11-13	2021-11-21	2021-07-06	--	2021-10-11	2021-12-02	2021-07-07	2021-10-08	--	2021-11-23	2021-10-11	2021-11-14	--	--	--	--	2021-10-10	--	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	--	2021-07-07	2021-10-10	2021-07-07	--	2021-11-30	2021-09-29	--	2021-10-10	2021-11-30	2021-08-25	2021-07-07	2021-10-05	--	--	2021-10-11	--	2021-07-07	2021-10-11	2021-10-11	--	2021-06-29	--	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-10-11	2021-11-08	2021-10-06	--	2021-10-05	2021-10-05	2021-07-05
Peak daily increment	179	225	57	98	123	91			97	199	158	120	146	204		93	260	276	70	139		112	287	119	378	177	1250	89	157	159	126	76	208		370		478	130	92	175	68	127	277	619			94	72		74		249	177			100		413	115	190	100	162		68		192	202		366		99			109	567	69		21	102	78	72	467	103	606	377	48	116			94	98		83	189	64	202	400	321	47	272	137	184	189	133	81	116	183			108	112	95	157	296	93		108	152	33		145	105		110	117	185	113	88	171	420	122	100	104	70	156	123	941	141	108	69	113			158		125	69		94		79	157	143		146	100	120	151	165	82	90	155	197	106	133	233		71	137	164	80	118			139	112	246		316	311		117	705	284	122		98	99		727	137	164	61	48	442	96	254	49	164	106		84			174	136	274	115	197		99	79	184	154	116	384		155	190		164	120	100	231		107	622	176		291	226	47	96	195	270		264	131	46	255	22		145	57	113	197	339	222	109	104		128	105	77		289	267	57		40	213	75	69	86	234	116	70		85	39	48	253	255	86	83	132	195	88		482	25	258	109	277	202	119	84		86	367		64	142	84	470	128			88	178	83	303		195		99		143	141	104	74	91		339	199	113	201	428		161	135	270	329	219	73		147	160	116		150	112	78	105		130	134	104					160		352	191	155		195	144	73		154	91		192	62	158	94	101			145		382	632	149		243			185	99	78	106	108		116	93	138
Days since peak	105	106	14	91	79	40			112	104	23	78	22	64		159	159	163	79	161		72	63	67	155	160	350	91	352	159	67	72	218		13		160	21	65	160	160	16	14	160			67	160		160		64	71			69		69	160	107	160	39		65		64	65		71		61			71	114	112		49	96	57	106	23	62	165	160	64	22			69	63		86	14	71	123	160	22	133	160	120	176	159	107	58	65	118			70	184	70	114	161	67		29	63	73		158	160		161	18	111	21	70	123	107	14	14	64	63	60	160	113	23	64	64	160			36		70	35		14		22	71	160		162	23	16	159	89	160	69	41	160	38	64	13		174	113	71	14	29			88	64	160		69	352		159	160	345	14		71	146		353	63	15	23	28	159	126	15	31	64	371		29			37	35	160	111	160		65	39	98	13	161	164		137	63		110	30	71	162		64	114	84		65	64	13	14	71	63		160	78	70	160	59		62	160	175	70	13	11	66	161		65	66	69		113	94	64		28	162	62	169	22	67	91	15		21	35	65	160	161	37	356	64	169	39		159	511	36	64	161	68	118	14		86	64		57	67	79	113	65			66	65	65	170		15		21		65	92	69	30	111		161	72	14	68	162		64	21	79	65	160	21		31	23	161		64	12	160	67		21	64	30					65		161	160	159		160	65	160		14	76		65	14	111	160	70			64		160	64	64		168			160	160	64	36	69		70	70	162
Last total	26550	26804	8603	15535	21252	13524	25411	22923	9013	40612	24083	22981	21367	32218	11089	38371	63027	50098	12204	34814	25294	21041	30153	31820	62943	42545	197085	19027	33918	26401	13265	14181	54152	11278	68118	19145	99689	24248	17545	52508	14445	26677	44579	82131	16910	52336	17400	17623	19141	18977	37393	33553	37096	17293	33177	17909	21938	64190	18325	29440	16768	24533	47303	7023	32696	31446	16218	24293	61857	58831	16699	16285	14988	21691	70131	8452	31510	1645	15215	11250	14431	74277	10569	96352	58424	8490	19997	62043	24826	20084	21415	13854	15541	44494	9679	31774	59055	48135	16213	57871	17106	24231	60646	20368	11590	18652	18450	16065	24197	19281	14039	14362	16572	53794	21557	27227	15435	22018	7323	23176	52110	23807	13452	19570	19153	24705	16431	14364	21020	51444	24576	16028	10967	13579	37418	21529	109587	20469	13474	20028	14606	44664	21781	16556	44603	26060	12824	30898	15724	41547	16720	25937	40531	15108	18803	14610	19201	47826	23846	18280	15275	20696	51526	19431	19131	48912	26000	16852	11571	20278	8605	20051	34441	21307	17982	19182	48694	28665	76057	33547	54266	23271	148507	70216	13639	45846	18020	17320	23991	96386	41283	28753	9502	8536	109189	20197	49266	8139	16266	12923	34189	11030	11437	22972	30281	22742	28770	13756	47618	12863	12530	8017	28242	22286	20440	57631	21992	59068	27331	33051	20243	13156	16718	28694	19979	17066	65286	27153	9313	31301	39784	11506	17782	40654	52116	19554	62380	23880	11238	46853	1006	24247	15804	17976	17224	37482	41838	36970	16221	28665	27440	55500	25849	15205	25929	31400	45843	12025	30766	7549	45004	14726	14334	12000	51001	18957	13319	21195	16873	5568	6777	52850	63363	16228	11724	18046	52382	15079	19183	98214	1124	45765	28651	38719	19149	15256	12053	21584	18465	47260	10742	13493	21937	13148	54676	16732	14860	20123	20353	21583	19256	29337	41777	31748	48348	17578	25152	36517	22596	16457	14635	12908	54681	37471	47296	18388	15681	52667	14792	35693	24807	44139	34234	44222	15035	14508	17390	31793	22462	19420	12911	21222	15994	33474	20709	20140	17230	8957	53958	46156	18144	13428	23354	18265	64894	50768	46725	54531	41082	22659	17223	18508	21663	13469	19928	21720	6726	15782	20026	14410	28879	14698	21611	31937	64897	69286	18079	24171	55215	16733	26062	48326	15947	15368	24565	17637	29074	19272	15156	31062
Last daily increment	115	156	60	45	91	56	182	240	68	259	128	78	123	269	77	379	627	162	53	291	190	93	184	244	419	502	701	107	109	58	4	65	199	61	393	172	239	187	86	561	212	22	392	474	119	766	87	168	174	61	268	74	102	225	592	52	193	207	50	44	136	133	425	28	339	315	81	208	398	288	63	135	170	107	614	58	304	7	5	62	75	434	97	346	357	61	149	737	256	58	250	79	26	163	52	183	203	281	108	235	74	86	605	121	91	89	128	136	313	66	112	63	124	246	48	209	95	165	26	294	567	251	184	96	106	235	83	49	126	341	129	144	48	53	158	154	667	78	63	149	90	560	284	29	1004	117	77	541	94	621	95	115	325	112	45	69	92	566	119	151	87	115	380	107	151	378	206	71	64	174	42	99	731	303	90	88	195	367	197	111	1264	120	662	269	127	819	68	96	170	435	224	267	96	61	671	115	353	40	109	25	490	54	115	202	154	131	61	134	380	131	26	77	22	157	149	236	167	582	68	229	158	71	81	89	258	116	378	121	67	169	170	49	85	142	244	160	534	119	57	147	6	204	14	53	109	166	272	173	39	96	236	499	88	60	297	228	44	65	430	40	191	158	58	76	209	120	103	170	92	34	38	353	213	46	57	98	199	81	167	527	12	206	112	200	73	102	110	216	64	220	82	64	150	53	465	156	129	205	114	102	70	94	280	297	929	163	315	133	107	55	134	91	417	132	225	114	89	157	131	423	179	38	137	197	71	160	115	146	146	161	79	138	143	389	208	82	42	57	945	387	195	179	55	205	155	164	558	1124	219	164	132	204	175	79	195	202	53	113	67	91	222	126	131	468	258	445	220	220	261	172	273	150	102	113	21	81	274	57	81	166
Last week	735	829	302	215	492	250	889	1063	320	1256	794	457	758	1072	418	1673	2657	730	212	1383	1004	395	814	1009	1769	1978	3880	481	510	355	193	287	1039	355	2206	804	1257	814	557	2221	753	559	1781	2347	657	2967	494	641	722	286	1176	655	506	1004	2326	389	962	1457	239	569	594	671	2020	204	1216	1334	529	1158	1746	1771	409	619	724	514	2716	217	1453	74	345	263	340	2245	409	1907	1618	238	693	3163	1061	349	981	523	370	1017	227	813	968	1680	587	1251	446	394	2490	701	406	572	602	626	1096	513	536	399	597	1386	478	1234	538	806	128	1285	2383	978	627	516	567	1022	618	312	590	1559	751	626	344	314	720	636	2735	589	332	639	358	2690	1085	478	3505	591	316	2112	431	2433	480	512	1495	607	226	404	572	2168	588	639	296	541	1700	560	685	1658	1030	302	277	834	351	617	2734	1242	427	459	1055	1570	1100	572	4365	495	2871	1252	607	3127	451	514	849	2107	1047	1082	426	238	2877	463	1743	206	589	217	1943	315	548	907	693	680	407	511	1866	566	351	362	459	900	691	1131	684	2558	645	1155	712	426	403	581	1033	590	1809	631	472	896	822	269	485	904	1268	724	2292	577	229	846	45	1078	378	207	563	905	1659	985	453	504	1063	2055	473	347	1305	1010	828	226	1683	204	922	615	253	460	940	568	510	703	462	181	179	1397	1116	234	304	558	1024	370	870	1946	59	1236	670	915	454	524	492	1057	412	1225	551	383	790	237	1960	645	716	1027	467	675	384	474	1398	1298	3775	661	1266	673	602	343	574	467	1625	681	1148	557	537	699	593	1739	877	865	742	813	422	628	533	808	720	826	478	634	650	1689	894	567	389	301	3296	1715	920	695	544	974	1026	901	2380	4115	1086	669	582	942	903	399	873	837	292	468	354	465	1221	661	768	2089	1259	2308	908	1076	1448	737	1208	956	531	674	505	484	1309	293	426	866
Previous peak date	07-21	07-21	12-27	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	07-21	12-22	12-26	07-21	12-21	12-21	12-27	12-08	12-22	12-23	12-28	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	11-02	12-21	10-07	12-22	11-02	12-27	10-13	10-13	12-07	2021-01-07	10-15	11-16	2021-01-01	12-21	10-24	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-14	12-06	12-28	11-02	12-27	12-21	2021-07-07	12-22	2021-07-05	12-30	10-21	12-07	10-28	12-26	12-22	12-26	12-06	12-06	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-22	12-21	--	11-02	12-22	2021-08-10	12-26	2021-07-07	12-26	2021-07-06	12-29	12-21	2021-07-07	07-21	07-21	12-26	--	12-29	2021-07-06	12-27	2021-08-10	12-24	11-02	12-27	2021-07-07	12-27	12-27	12-21	2021-07-06	12-22	12-26	12-28	2021-01-02	2021-02-25	10-01	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	07-21	07-21	12-27	07-21	12-24	2021-08-10	07-21	12-27	12-21	11-09	07-21	2021-07-06	07-21	10-31	12-27	12-26	12-28	12-21	12-26	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-22	2021-01-06	2021-08-10	07-21	12-23	12-27	12-22	07-21	12-25	12-24	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-04	12-26	07-21	2021-07-07	12-28	12-21	12-21	12-27	12-21	2021-01-05	12-21	12-27	2021-07-07	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-28	12-27	12-28	12-22	12-23	12-13	12-27	12-14	12-29	12-22	2021-07-04	2021-08-25	12-28	12-30	12-22	12-26	12-27	2021-01-01	07-21	12-28	2021-09-26	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-28	12-25	11-01	12-22	10-27	09-29	12-29	2021-01-06	11-02	11-02	12-21	12-28	2021-07-07	11-02	12-22	09-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	2021-07-07	11-02	2021-01-02	12-22	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	--	12-21	2021-08-09	12-26	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-31	07-21	12-22	12-27	12-06	--	12-07	12-28	12-29	11-02	2021-07-07	12-27	12-06	12-26	07-21	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	10-26	12-27	12-21	07-21	11-01	12-27	2021-07-07	2021-07-04	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	12-27	2021-07-06	2021-01-03	11-02	2021-07-08	11-02	10-22	--	2021-06-21	12-28	12-26	07-21	2021-01-06	2021-07-07	11-02	12-06	11-02	2021-01-03	12-21	2021-07-07	2021-01-05	12-21	07-21	12-06	12-28	12-21	2021-07-06	10-19	12-10	10-11	12-13	10-18	12-30	12-28	2021-07-07	12-25	2021-01-26	2021-01-02	11-02	12-29	2021-07-06	07-21	2021-08-09	12-31	12-29	12-22	11-02	--	12-30	12-25	12-25	12-21	07-21	12-21	12-27	12-28	2021-07-07	2021-08-09	2021-01-04	12-22	11-09	07-21	12-21	12-26	12-21	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	12-27	12-22	12-22	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	12-25	12-25	2021-07-07	12-22	07-21	2021-07-07	12-27	2021-07-04	12-22	2021-07-08	12-22	12-27	12-22	12-07	12-02	12-25	10-18	2021-06-22	12-27	2021-08-09	2021-01-04	12-27	2021-07-07	12-26	12-21	12-19	12-21	12-21	2021-07-07	12-06	2021-08-09	12-22	2021-09-27	12-21	12-21	12-08	12-26	11-01	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-28	11-02	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-26	12-20	2021-08-09	07-21	11-02	12-07	2021-08-30	2021-07-06	12-23	12-22	10-16	12-29	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-27	2021-10-07	12-27	12-31	12-28	12-25	12-31	12-27	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	11-02
Previous peak daily increment	616	365	61	115	105	295	144	84	119	260	170	110	171	178	78	477	589	189	58	326	162	144	271	233	262	426	1226	75	166	98	95	58	234	56	484	142	434	228	107	524	155	233	307	1197	120	579	94	186	106	122	167	211	137	102	283	87	168	354	172	194	175	107	302		273	268	65	207	270	290	82	87	79	121	1272	83	232		35	115	94	714	34	553	288	53	181	598	163	140	188	65	58	246	27	206	248	187	118	322	226	710	536	308	60	135	383	87	181	106	191	65	235	204	102	175	147	107	56	164	593	273	103	74	128	475	90	73	94	687	150	124	56	82	274	82	1766	95	56	180	92	503	135	34	403	219	84	213	57	434	172	103	338	104	106	136	120	475	101	159	73	203	442	57	116	452	156	83	248	134	64	237	303	152	70	100	283	218	349	153	458	107	1449	479	104	480	79	230	111	480	273	200	90	47	2237	92	419	40	71		342	72	61	139	186	105	213	302	361	79	62		191	105	63	2429	120	723	190	218	192	84	93	137	116	51	1007	105	65	203	228	77	96	277	322	138	1343	158	68	257		148	44	108	230	154	343	354	43	150	187	623	297	81	182	459	286	52	203	66	194	139	65	96	198	80	85	122	174	36	25	406	450	94	152	123	403	65	131	573		209	244	167	97	226	111	115	69	345	92	42	86	72	876	95	76	123	92	107	102	115	234	293	478	131	173	219	94	77	112	149	257	138	242	65	69	206	105	330	189	270	181	172	83	109	143	141	352	92	44	138	122	359	148	131	101	61	637	287	97	119	120	83	250	329	449	407	224	259	138	117	160	65	154	87	70	307	166	42	229	74	115	241	319	265	83	168	430	111	179	377	106	115	176	95	187	120	74	594
Low between peaks	0	-1	-3	24	40	0			-26	5	-11	2	-7	-16		3	-2	9	-2	-28		54	-14	-12	9	3	303	-1	55	-10	0	-14	17		-34		31	-4	-5	-39	-11	1	-1	-18			38	-16		3		1	8			-6		5	-9	2	-2	3				-11	21		129		31			35	-11	-4			1	25	2	227	-1	-13	-20	16	-8			43	1		0	2	-3	11	2	-29	-14	-4	-48	-3	-6	-2	-3	49	-3			-2	-5	30	-1	-5	1		-6	-5	0		-80	-12		0	44	-4	0	0	4	-5	1	-7	19	32	75	2	-7	21	-8	-2	-8			1		-25	27		1		-2	-17	5		-1	-8	-12	-20	-9	-1	33	59	-27	1	-1	12		3	-2	-7	30	-5			-3	-3	-12		27	21		-5	41	120	1		35	-8		58	7	-22	0	14	27	1	-45	11	31			20			6	2	5	-15	0		0		1	-11	1	15		4	2		-8	32	39	-3		-6	-7	5		57	88	22	40	-3	111		5	50	1	6			1	3	1	5	108	-23	0	0		1	49	-52		-2	1	0		17	3	0	1	-6	0	-2	0		-14	-6	-8	2	-1	40	-4	41	-44	3		23		-28	4	-3	-10	-2	-3		-12	58		3	-5	-4	-7	-11			35	42	-10	2		-3		-2		-40	-13	27	1	-1		4	85	-7	25	1		-13	-41	3	-9	7	30		34	-13	-3		-4	-9	2	-6		51	1	29					1		16	-8	-23		-6	-4	4		-13	-5		-7	17	-2	1	-4			-11		5	-37	-9		-69			-20	-2	-5	2	1		44	35	-48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-12-15 to 2021-12-21

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-12-14	26550	26804	8603	15535	21252	13524	25411	22923	9013	40612	24083	22981	21367	32218	11089	38371	63027	50098	12204	34814	25294	21041	30153	31820	62943	42545	197085	19027	33918	26401	13265	14181	54152	11278	68118	19145	99689	24248	17545	52508	14445	26677	44579	82131	16910	52336	17400	17623	19141	18977	37393	33553	37096	17293	33177	17909	21938	64190	18325	29440	16768	24533	47303	7023	32696	31446	16218	24293	61857	58831	16699	16285	14988	21691	70131	8452	31510	1645	15215	11250	14431	74277	10569	96352	58424	8490	19997	62043	24826	20084	21415	13854	15541	44494	9679	31774	59055	48135	16213	57871	17106	24231	60646	20368	11590	18652	18450	16065	24197	19281	14039	14362	16572	53794	21557	27227	15435	22018	7323	23176	52110	23807	13452	19570	19153	24705	16431	14364	21020	51444	24576	16028	10967	13579	37418	21529	109587	20469	13474	20028	14606	44664	21781	16556	44603	26060	12824	30898	15724	41547	16720	25937	40531	15108	18803	14610	19201	47826	23846	18280	15275	20696	51526	19431	19131	48912	26000	16852	11571	20278	8605	20051	34441	21307	17982	19182	48694	28665	76057	33547	54266	23271	148507	70216	13639	45846	18020	17320	23991	96386	41283	28753	9502	8536	109189	20197	49266	8139	16266	12923	34189	11030	11437	22972	30281	22742	28770	13756	47618	12863	12530	8017	28242	22286	20440	57631	21992	59068	27331	33051	20243	13156	16718	28694	19979	17066	65286	27153	9313	31301	39784	11506	17782	40654	52116	19554	62380	23880	11238	46853	1006	24247	15804	17976	17224	37482	41838	36970	16221	28665	27440	55500	25849	15205	25929	31400	45843	12025	30766	7549	45004	14726	14334	12000	51001	18957	13319	21195	16873	5568	6777	52850	63363	16228	11724	18046	52382	15079	19183	98214	1124	45765	28651	38719	19149	15256	12053	21584	18465	47260	10742	13493	21937	13148	54676	16732	14860	20123	20353	21583	19256	29337	41777	31748	48348	17578	25152	36517	22596	16457	14635	12908	54681	37471	47296	18388	15681	52667	14792	35693	24807	44139	34234	44222	15035	14508	17390	31793	22462	19420	12911	21222	15994	33474	20709	20140	17230	8957	53958	46156	18144	13428	23354	18265	64894	50768	46725	54531	41082	22659	17223	18508	21663	13469	19928	21720	6726	15782	20026	14410	28879	14698	21611	31937	64897	69286	18079	24171	55215	16733	26062	48326	15947	15368	24565	17637	29074	19272	15156	31062
2021-12-15	26650	26920	8657	15560	21330	13570	25560	23110	9014	40810	24280	23050	21550	32430	11170	38700	63550	50270	12240	35120	25460	21110	30280	31830	63170	42550	197400	19110	33980	26440	13300	14230	54340	11350	68480	19300	99900	24380	17630	52980	14450	26830	44860	82560	17020	52600	17470	17740	19270	19000	37610	33660	37200	17480	33770	17960	22090	64460	18360	29610	16860	24670	47640	7073	32890	31730	16300	24410	62230	59090	16760	16410	15150	21780	70670	8486	31780	1659	15320	11300	14500	74730	10640	96570	58670	8529	20110	62640	25010	20160	21420	13920	15600	44670	9719	31900	59220	48530	16310	58020	17210	24250	61150	20480	11660	18810	18540	16220	24270	19390	14120	14470	16700	54010	21630	27430	15570	22160	7348	23390	52110	23810	13510	19660	19310	24860	16530	14420	21110	51600	24700	16110	11030	13620	37520	21620	109900	20690	13540	20160	14670	45020	21920	16840	45350	26150	12870	30900	15810	41850	16800	26030	40800	15210	18840	14780	19310	47830	23980	18410	15300	20790	51890	19520	19240	49260	26260	16880	11620	20420	8722	20160	34930	21310	18080	19270	48890	28930	76220	33640	55300	23330	149000	70360	13790	46450	18110	17400	24110	96630	41470	28840	9568	8597	109800	20250	49630	8178	16360	12960	34660	11090	11540	23190	30400	22860	28830	13840	47920	12960	12590	8074	28320	22430	20490	57770	22040	59560	27440	33290	20370	13240	16790	28910	20140	17160	65730	27260	9333	31450	39920	11550	17860	40810	52210	19750	62800	23970	11280	46910	1006	24420	15880	18010	17300	37600	42120	37280	16330	28690	27620	55920	25930	15270	26180	31600	45970	12060	30890	7583	45110	14850	14360	12100	51110	19050	13390	21310	16950	5600	6805	53020	63490	16270	11770	18130	52540	15140	19180	98600	1131	46100	28760	38860	19200	15330	12130	21760	18580	47480	10920	13550	22060	13200	55000	16870	15060	20320	20450	21700	19360	29410	42060	31950	48350	17680	25350	36600	22700	16510	14650	12970	55010	37600	47470	18550	15760	52830	14930	35690	24910	44280	34350	44340	15100	14640	17490	31990	22550	19560	12990	21330	16140	33470	20820	20350	17300	9013	54350	46400	18290	13560	23530	18500	65150	50850	46730	55320	41320	22760	17340	18660	21810	13530	20090	21860	6777	15780	20090	14480	29070	14840	21740	31940	65080	69660	18210	24370	55440	16820	26150	48410	16040	15490	24760	17760	29280	19310	15220	31190
2021-12-16	26740	26980	8718	15590	21390	13650	25730	23260	9044	40910	24460	23110	21700	32600	11260	39010	64020	50400	12250	35370	25630	21180	30320	31890	63430	42950	197900	19160	34040	26470	13370	14260	54510	11420	68830	19420	100100	24470	17680	53380	14540	26930	44980	82880	17120	53000	17510	17800	19370	19050	37760	33790	37270	17650	34280	18020	22220	64720	18390	29740	16900	24800	47970	7125	33000	31930	16380	24500	62540	59300	16830	16540	15290	21840	71150	8492	32010	1675	15390	11340	14560	75120	10680	96830	58910	8562	20210	63170	25140	20220	21620	13970	15670	44880	9763	31940	59370	48860	16360	58170	17290	24280	61590	20590	11720	18920	18550	16320	24360	19480	14130	14560	16810	54180	21710	27570	15690	22310	7381	23520	52580	23990	13580	19740	19430	25000	16640	14470	21180	51770	24780	16190	11080	13640	37630	21720	110200	20830	13630	20250	14700	45250	21950	17020	45980	26180	12920	30980	15900	42220	16850	26160	41030	15340	18880	14890	19440	48230	24090	18500	15320	20870	52230	19600	19330	49580	26430	16920	11640	20520	8793	20290	35290	21430	18170	19370	49060	29140	76320	33720	56280	23390	149400	70500	13910	47050	18170	17420	24190	96940	41620	28970	9603	8636	110200	20300	49910	8237	16440	12990	35130	11210	11610	23520	30570	23000	28890	13890	48150	13030	12660	8106	28400	22570	20570	57930	22120	60000	27540	33570	20470	13340	16840	29040	20200	17200	66060	27340	9364	31560	40050	11590	17920	40940	52380	19900	63110	24010	11310	47000	1006	24560	16030	18030	17310	37720	42360	37490	16420	28740	27770	56310	26000	15330	26360	31770	46110	12100	31110	7621	45220	14950	14400	12180	51240	19120	13430	21410	17040	5645	6840	53200	63630	16330	11810	18180	52690	15180	19320	98900	1131	46350	28820	38980	19250	15330	12200	21920	18660	47740	11050	13580	22120	13230	55340	17000	15200	20530	20540	21820	19440	29430	42290	32100	48520	17740	25550	36700	22760	16560	14700	12970	55240	37700	47650	18650	15800	52980	15060	36000	25020	44440	34420	44450	15160	14770	17610	32160	22650	19660	13070	21410	16240	33790	20940	20500	17370	9084	54840	46640	18400	13650	23660	18670	65340	50970	47110	55820	41520	22790	17430	18760	21940	13580	20210	21950	6823	15810	20140	14540	29250	14950	21860	32050	65250	69960	18230	24530	55670	16910	26300	48520	16120	15590	24870	17860	29420	19360	15250	31230
2021-12-17	26840	27060	8775	15620	21460	13720	25880	23430	9075	41050	24600	23170	21840	32780	11340	39330	64510	50510	12280	35630	25780	21250	30390	31990	63670	43340	198300	19220	34100	26500	13430	14290	54680	11490	69180	19550	100300	24570	17750	53820	14650	26990	45170	83250	17230	53390	17570	17890	19480	19080	37930	33910	37340	17810	34810	18080	22350	64950	18420	29850	16970	24910	48270	7174	33120	32160	16460	24600	62850	59520	16890	16660	15430	21910	71610	8510	32250	1689	15440	11380	14610	75400	10740	97060	59140	8597	20310	63710	25280	20260	21830	14020	15730	45060	9803	32010	59500	49130	16440	58350	17370	24340	62060	20700	11790	19020	18590	16430	24460	19570	14170	14630	16920	54370	21790	27740	15780	22450	7410	23680	53040	24190	13660	19820	19510	25120	16740	14520	21260	51930	24880	16280	11140	13670	37720	21810	110600	20930	13700	20350	14740	45540	22010	17140	46660	26240	12970	31020	15990	42590	16910	26270	41280	15460	18920	14980	19560	48650	24180	18610	15350	20940	52570	19680	19420	49900	26590	16950	11680	20640	8861	20410	35720	21550	18240	19440	49210	29360	76450	33800	57290	23440	149900	70640	14010	47650	18240	17460	24280	97210	41780	29070	9650	8675	110700	20350	50220	8285	16530	13020	35580	11290	11700	23790	30710	23120	28940	13950	48400	13110	12720	8148	28480	22700	20660	58070	22230	60460	27650	33820	20580	13430	16890	29160	20300	17270	66390	27430	9411	31680	40150	11630	17990	41060	52500	20040	63450	24080	11350	47100	1006	24710	16150	18060	17350	37830	42620	37660	16510	28790	27920	56700	26070	15390	26520	31940	46240	12140	31330	7656	45340	15050	14430	12270	51360	19200	13480	21510	17110	5683	6871	53380	63750	16380	11850	18240	52830	15220	19470	99200	1132	46570	28900	39080	19310	15350	12270	22040	18740	47980	11140	13630	22210	13270	55680	17130	15330	20730	20630	21940	19500	29480	42540	32260	48710	17820	25730	36780	22840	16610	14760	13000	55510	37780	47820	18740	15860	53090	15180	36320	25130	44590	34520	44550	15220	14900	17720	32290	22720	19780	13150	21500	16360	34110	21060	20610	17440	9147	55370	46880	18520	13760	23750	18820	65500	51090	47520	56440	41710	22850	17530	18880	22070	13630	20350	22060	6871	15840	20190	14600	29440	15050	21960	32180	65410	70280	18290	24700	55860	16990	26480	48640	16210	15700	24960	17930	29580	19400	15300	31310
2021-12-18	26940	27160	8829	15640	21530	13770	26030	23590	9100	41210	24710	23220	21940	32960	11420	39630	64970	50600	12300	35890	25910	21310	30480	32060	63900	43710	198700	19280	34150	26530	13470	14330	54830	11550	69450	19690	100500	24690	17820	54220	14760	27060	45380	83620	17330	53790	17630	17970	19590	19100	38110	34020	37400	17980	35300	18130	22470	65140	18460	29920	17040	25010	48550	7219	33240	32390	16540	24690	63120	59760	16950	16760	15560	21980	72020	8533	32490	1703	15500	11420	14660	75680	10790	97270	59340	8632	20420	64230	25410	20310	22020	14070	15800	45240	9842	32100	59610	49360	16520	58480	17420	24370	62480	20810	11850	19100	18640	16520	24570	19660	14230	14690	17030	54570	21870	27920	15860	22590	7436	23850	53490	24370	13740	19900	19590	25230	16840	14550	21340	52090	24980	16350	11200	13700	37790	21880	110900	21020	13770	20460	14790	45840	22090	17230	47320	26310	13010	31140	16070	42840	16980	26360	41520	15570	18950	15040	19670	49050	24250	18720	15370	20980	52890	19760	19520	50150	26730	16980	11710	20760	8908	20520	36150	21650	18300	19500	49330	29600	76580	33850	58230	23480	150400	70800	14090	48170	18310	17520	24360	97430	41940	29180	9703	8702	111100	20400	50530	8328	16620	13050	36010	11370	11780	24030	30830	23240	29000	14010	48660	13190	12780	8194	28560	22840	20740	58180	22300	60890	27750	34060	20690	13510	16950	29250	20420	17340	66640	27520	9444	31810	40230	11670	18060	41180	52640	20190	63770	24150	11380	47190	1006	24860	16250	18090	17400	37930	42880	37800	16570	28840	28090	57060	26140	15450	26680	32080	46370	12170	31530	7689	45430	15160	14460	12330	51470	19270	13540	21620	17190	5717	6900	53540	63870	16430	11890	18310	52940	15270	19620	99500	1135	46740	28990	39200	19340	15400	12340	22150	18790	48200	11210	13670	22300	13300	55950	17250	15450	20930	20710	22050	19560	29530	42780	32430	48870	17910	25930	36860	22920	16660	14810	13040	55780	37860	47920	18800	15930	53180	15300	36620	25220	44740	34620	44650	15280	15020	17820	32390	22800	19900	13230	21590	16480	34390	21180	20700	17470	9203	55840	47100	18630	13870	23840	18940	65620	51170	47910	57090	41890	22920	17620	19000	22210	13670	20490	22180	6919	15880	20250	14670	29610	15140	22050	32230	65590	70610	18380	24860	56050	17050	26620	48770	16290	15800	25040	17990	29760	19430	15350	31400
2021-12-19	27030	27250	8882	15660	21600	13830	26180	23760	9128	41370	24830	23280	22050	33150	11500	39930	65440	50710	12330	36150	26040	21370	30580	32130	64100	44080	199200	19350	34200	26560	13520	14370	55000	11620	69730	19820	100600	24800	17890	54630	14870	27110	45600	83990	17440	54060	17690	18060	19700	19130	38300	34130	37470	18150	35750	18190	22590	65320	18490	30000	17120	25110	48810	7264	33360	32620	16620	24760	63400	60000	17010	16860	15690	22060	72440	8557	32740	1716	15560	11460	14710	76040	10850	97530	59560	8668	20520	64760	25540	20350	22210	14110	15860	45420	9880	32200	59750	49580	16590	58640	17470	24420	62960	20910	11920	19180	18710	16610	24650	19750	14280	14740	17110	54770	21940	28100	15930	22730	7462	24030	53930	24570	13810	19980	19690	25350	16940	14600	21420	52270	25090	16420	11250	13740	37890	21960	111300	21130	13840	20570	14840	46150	22170	17340	48000	26380	13050	31330	16150	43180	17040	26460	41760	15680	18990	15100	19780	49440	24320	18820	15400	21050	53210	19840	19620	50450	26830	17010	11750	20880	8956	20620	36590	21810	18360	19570	49460	29830	76720	33920	59190	23540	150800	70940	14160	48730	18360	17580	24450	97680	42100	29300	9758	8735	111500	20450	50840	8370	16710	13080	36440	11440	11870	24260	30950	23360	29060	14070	48930	13270	12840	8241	28640	22980	20820	58320	22380	61330	27850	34300	20800	13590	17010	29350	20540	17410	66860	27620	9477	31940	40360	11710	18130	41280	52790	20340	64090	24220	11420	47270	1008	25020	16350	18120	17450	38060	43140	37930	16630	28910	28250	57430	26210	15520	26820	32250	46500	12200	31760	7722	45540	15260	14480	12390	51590	19360	13600	21720	17260	5750	6927	53710	64010	16470	11930	18380	53080	15320	19770	99900	1139	46930	29090	39330	19400	15440	12410	22280	18840	48420	11280	13720	22400	13330	56210	17370	15570	21120	20800	22160	19600	29590	43020	32610	49000	17990	26110	36950	23010	16710	14880	13080	56060	37960	48050	18880	16000	53290	15420	36930	25330	44890	34720	44750	15330	15140	17920	32500	22880	20030	13300	21690	16600	34680	21280	20790	17530	9257	56320	47330	18740	13980	23940	19030	65800	51270	48310	57750	42050	23000	17720	19130	22350	13720	20630	22300	6966	15920	20300	14730	29790	15230	22150	32350	65750	70940	18470	25010	56210	17130	26770	48870	16380	15910	25130	18060	29940	19480	15410	31500
2021-12-20	27130	27360	8934	15710	21670	13880	26320	23940	9192	41540	24980	23370	22200	33340	11570	40230	65910	50840	12360	36420	26240	21430	30690	32270	64380	44450	199900	19420	34300	26590	13560	14410	55200	11680	70140	19960	100900	24920	17970	55030	14980	27210	45850	84380	17550	54630	17760	18160	19810	19190	38490	34230	37570	18320	36230	18250	22700	65590	18530	30130	17200	25220	49060	7308	33490	32860	16700	25000	63810	60240	17080	16960	15810	22140	72920	8584	32990	1730	15640	11500	14780	76450	10910	97890	59860	8704	20620	65280	25670	20430	22400	14160	15930	45590	9918	32300	59920	49900	16680	58890	17550	24490	63400	21020	11980	19290	18780	16720	24820	19840	14350	14800	17250	54970	22020	28280	16050	22870	7487	24220	54370	24760	13920	20050	19790	25530	17040	14650	21510	52570	25200	16530	11310	13770	38040	22070	111800	21250	13910	20680	14890	46480	22260	17440	48690	26460	13100	31680	16230	43490	17110	26550	42010	15780	19020	15190	19890	49830	24420	18930	15460	21160	53530	19920	19720	50750	27030	17080	11790	21010	9038	20730	37050	22080	18430	19650	49670	30080	76870	34040	60160	23640	151400	71190	14290	49460	18440	17640	24530	98070	42260	29490	9816	8786	112000	20540	51150	8409	16800	13110	36870	11500	11960	24470	31070	23470	29120	14140	49200	13360	12900	8292	28710	23110	20930	58520	22530	61770	27960	34530	20920	13660	17070	29460	20680	17490	67210	27710	9526	32080	40520	11750	18210	41460	53040	20420	64410	24300	11450	47430	1016	25180	16430	18150	17520	38230	43410	38120	16720	29010	28420	57800	26280	15570	27010	32450	46620	12240	32170	7754	45720	15370	14540	12480	51770	19440	13660	21830	17340	5782	6954	53940	64220	16510	11970	18460	53270	15370	19930	100200	1144	47150	29190	39510	19500	15500	12490	22410	18930	48640	11370	13780	22510	13390	56570	17500	15710	21320	20880	22270	19690	29650	43270	32790	49550	18080	26350	37080	23100	16760	14980	13130	56350	38080	48280	18990	16070	53400	15530	37230	25500	45030	34820	44910	15400	15250	18010	32670	23030	20150	13380	21790	16720	34960	21470	20890	17610	9309	56810	47670	18860	14090	24040	19170	65990	51440	48710	58460	42290	23090	17820	19270	22490	13810	20780	22420	7014	16020	20360	14800	29960	15360	22310	32740	65970	71280	18580	25160	56490	17240	26980	49030	16460	16030	25230	18170	30130	19530	15470	31610
2021-12-21	27230	27470	8986	15740	21750	13920	26470	24110	9247	41720	25100	23440	22340	33530	11650	40520	66380	50980	12390	36690	26400	21490	30800	32460	64740	44820	200500	19490	34390	26620	13600	14450	55360	11750	70510	20100	101100	25040	18050	55440	15090	27260	46100	84760	17660	55240	17830	18250	19930	19250	38690	34340	37670	18490	36600	18300	22810	65790	18560	30190	17280	25340	49310	7352	33620	33110	16770	25130	64120	60490	17140	17060	15940	22220	73380	8613	33240	1743	15660	11540	14840	76860	10980	98210	60160	8740	20730	65810	25800	20490	22590	14210	15990	45760	9955	32410	60110	50170	16760	59110	17620	24560	63850	21120	12050	19370	18850	16850	25010	19930	14410	14870	17340	55170	22090	28470	16140	23000	7512	24410	54820	24890	14060	20130	19900	25710	17130	14700	21600	52870	25310	16650	11370	13810	38180	22200	112200	21350	13970	20790	14950	46810	22350	17500	49390	26550	13140	32280	16310	43980	17190	26630	42250	15890	19060	15260	20000	50220	24530	19040	15530	21260	53860	20000	19820	51030	27220	17140	11830	21130	9087	20830	37520	22290	18510	19730	49860	30330	77020	34150	61140	23740	151900	71430	14410	50060	18510	17710	24620	98450	42430	29700	9877	8838	112400	20630	51470	8447	16890	13140	37310	11570	12050	24680	31180	23580	29180	14210	49480	13440	12960	8344	28790	23250	21060	58730	22660	62220	28060	34770	21030	13740	17130	29560	20820	17580	67470	27810	9586	32220	40680	11790	18280	41590	53250	20550	64740	24370	11490	47560	1021	25340	16510	18180	17590	38380	43680	38310	16770	29090	28590	58160	26360	15630	27220	32620	46750	12270	32490	7787	45880	15480	14580	12550	51950	19520	13730	21950	17410	5812	6980	54220	64410	16550	12020	18540	53450	15420	20090	100600	1149	47350	29290	39680	19560	15560	12560	22590	18990	48850	11450	13830	22620	13440	56890	17620	15840	21510	20970	22380	19770	29710	43530	32970	50590	18180	26610	37210	23190	16810	15100	13180	56640	38200	48480	19110	16140	53540	15650	37540	25660	45170	34930	45070	15470	15370	18110	32810	23150	20280	13460	21890	16840	35240	21640	20990	17650	9360	57510	47990	18970	14210	24110	19330	66140	51600	49120	59180	42460	23180	17920	19400	22630	13880	20920	22550	7062	16110	20420	14870	30140	15480	22440	33300	66190	71630	18690	25310	56720	17360	27200	49170	16550	16140	25280	18250	30320	19580	15530	31720

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-12-15 to 2021-12-21

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-12-14	26550	26804	8603	15535	21252	13524	25411	22923	9013	40612	24083	22981	21367	32218	11089	38371	63027	50098	12204	34814	25294	21041	30153	31820	62943	42545	197085	19027	33918	26401	13265	14181	54152	11278	68118	19145	99689	24248	17545	52508	14445	26677	44579	82131	16910	52336	17400	17623	19141	18977	37393	33553	37096	17293	33177	17909	21938	64190	18325	29440	16768	24533	47303	7023	32696	31446	16218	24293	61857	58831	16699	16285	14988	21691	70131	8452	31510	1645	15215	11250	14431	74277	10569	96352	58424	8490	19997	62043	24826	20084	21415	13854	15541	44494	9679	31774	59055	48135	16213	57871	17106	24231	60646	20368	11590	18652	18450	16065	24197	19281	14039	14362	16572	53794	21557	27227	15435	22018	7323	23176	52110	23807	13452	19570	19153	24705	16431	14364	21020	51444	24576	16028	10967	13579	37418	21529	109587	20469	13474	20028	14606	44664	21781	16556	44603	26060	12824	30898	15724	41547	16720	25937	40531	15108	18803	14610	19201	47826	23846	18280	15275	20696	51526	19431	19131	48912	26000	16852	11571	20278	8605	20051	34441	21307	17982	19182	48694	28665	76057	33547	54266	23271	148507	70216	13639	45846	18020	17320	23991	96386	41283	28753	9502	8536	109189	20197	49266	8139	16266	12923	34189	11030	11437	22972	30281	22742	28770	13756	47618	12863	12530	8017	28242	22286	20440	57631	21992	59068	27331	33051	20243	13156	16718	28694	19979	17066	65286	27153	9313	31301	39784	11506	17782	40654	52116	19554	62380	23880	11238	46853	1006	24247	15804	17976	17224	37482	41838	36970	16221	28665	27440	55500	25849	15205	25929	31400	45843	12025	30766	7549	45004	14726	14334	12000	51001	18957	13319	21195	16873	5568	6777	52850	63363	16228	11724	18046	52382	15079	19183	98214	1124	45765	28651	38719	19149	15256	12053	21584	18465	47260	10742	13493	21937	13148	54676	16732	14860	20123	20353	21583	19256	29337	41777	31748	48348	17578	25152	36517	22596	16457	14635	12908	54681	37471	47296	18388	15681	52667	14792	35693	24807	44139	34234	44222	15035	14508	17390	31793	22462	19420	12911	21222	15994	33474	20709	20140	17230	8957	53958	46156	18144	13428	23354	18265	64894	50768	46725	54531	41082	22659	17223	18508	21663	13469	19928	21720	6726	15782	20026	14410	28879	14698	21611	31937	64897	69286	18079	24171	55215	16733	26062	48326	15947	15368	24565	17637	29074	19272	15156	31062
2021-12-15	26670	26930	8659	15570	21330	13580	25570	23100	9068	40810	24210	23060	21510	32420	11160	38680	63510	50240	12240	35080	25460	21110	30290	31980	63240	42850	197700	19110	34010	26460	13300	14230	54350	11340	68490	19290	99900	24390	17640	52890	14560	26780	44890	82520	17020	52890	17480	17740	19280	19020	37590	33660	37190	17480	33650	17960	22100	64440	18360	29540	16870	24660	47670	7054	32910	31660	16300	24480	62200	59130	16760	16410	15120	21790	70630	8492	31760	1659	15270	11300	14490	74680	10650	96680	58710	8533	20130	62650	25010	20150	21570	13940	15600	44670	9722	31900	59230	48430	16310	58080	17190	24300	61120	20480	11670	18770	18550	16200	24410	19360	14130	14440	16690	54010	21640	27420	15520	22160	7350	23400	52470	23960	13570	19660	19270	24910	16530	14420	21120	51730	24700	16150	11030	13620	37550	21640	110100	20590	13540	20140	14680	45160	21970	16650	45360	26160	12880	31300	15810	42040	16800	26040	40760	15230	18840	14690	19310	48190	23960	18390	15330	20800	51800	19520	19260	49240	26200	16910	11620	20410	8675	20160	35020	21510	18060	19250	48880	28950	76240	33650	55280	23350	149000	70440	13760	46470	18100	17400	24140	96750	41460	28930	9574	8583	109700	20280	49560	8180	16370	12960	34600	11080	11530	23140	30420	22850	28830	13850	47950	12970	12590	8082	28300	22440	20550	57820	22110	59530	27430	33280	20380	13230	16790	28810	20170	17160	65650	27260	9378	31460	39950	11550	17860	40810	52320	19710	62830	23970	11280	46990	1013	24430	15870	18010	17310	37630	42130	37170	16300	28740	27630	55890	25930	15270	26180	31590	45960	12070	31080	7585	45170	14840	14380	12080	51150	19050	13400	21330	16960	5601	6808	53120	63550	16270	11780	18130	52560	15140	19300	98600	1131	45990	28760	38880	19220	15330	12150	21770	18540	47490	10860	13550	22070	13190	55000	16850	15000	20330	20440	21700	19310	29410	42020	31980	49050	17690	25390	36620	22690	16510	14720	12980	54980	37590	47500	18510	15760	52800	14900	35970	24960	44270	34350	44370	15100	14630	17480	31940	22590	19560	12990	21330	16100	33730	20860	20250	17290	9007	54590	46440	18300	13570	23450	18460	65090	50910	47080	55450	41290	22770	17330	18670	21830	13540	20080	21870	6778	15850	20100	14490	29070	14820	21730	32320	65090	69670	18220	24370	55490	16850	26250	48470	16040	15470	24670	17720	29300	19320	15220	31200
2021-12-16	26770	27030	8713	15600	21400	13630	25720	23250	9104	40970	24360	23120	21660	32560	11230	38920	63880	50360	12260	35250	25610	21170	30380	32100	63500	43090	198300	19180	34090	26520	13350	14280	54490	11400	68830	19390	100200	24490	17720	53100	14620	26890	45110	82800	17110	53290	17530	17800	19380	19070	37730	33770	37270	17640	33920	18030	22240	64690	18400	29640	16940	24760	47990	7088	33010	31800	16380	24620	62440	59400	16830	16510	15210	21860	70980	8514	31940	1676	15340	11340	14540	75090	10710	96960	58910	8569	20240	63040	25140	20200	21720	14010	15670	44850	9759	32000	59360	48730	16390	58240	17270	24340	61430	20600	11740	18860	18610	16270	24530	19430	14190	14510	16760	54190	21730	27570	15610	22290	7379	23560	52740	24070	13640	19760	19390	25040	16640	14470	21200	51930	24800	16240	11090	13650	37660	21730	110400	20730	13620	20220	14730	45480	22080	16760	45830	26220	12930	31540	15900	42420	16870	26130	40920	15340	18880	14770	19420	48470	24080	18470	15370	20890	52020	19610	19350	49470	26370	16950	11650	20500	8749	20270	35380	21650	18130	19330	49040	29150	76390	33740	55920	23410	149400	70600	13880	46900	18170	17450	24260	97080	41590	29100	9627	8617	110000	20350	49800	8223	16460	12980	34870	11150	11590	23300	30540	22960	28890	13910	48260	13050	12650	8129	28370	22580	20630	57990	22190	59850	27540	33480	20470	13310	16840	28910	20290	17230	65880	27360	9436	31590	40080	11590	17930	40960	52500	19820	63100	24050	11320	47100	1016	24580	15970	18040	17360	37750	42400	37370	16370	28800	27780	56150	26000	15340	26370	31720	46080	12110	31270	7618	45290	14920	14410	12150	51290	19140	13460	21420	17050	5633	6832	53290	63680	16320	11820	18200	52720	15190	19400	98800	1133	46230	28860	39010	19280	15390	12230	21940	18620	47730	10970	13600	22200	13230	55240	16940	15130	20500	20500	21810	19370	29460	42200	32160	49490	17770	25560	36720	22780	16560	14780	13020	55190	37700	47660	18620	15830	52920	14980	36220	25080	44420	34450	44490	15170	14720	17580	32090	22690	19690	13070	21420	16180	33980	20990	20370	17350	9062	54990	46640	18420	13650	23550	18590	65240	51050	47370	55970	41450	22840	17400	18790	21960	13600	20190	21990	6834	15900	20150	14540	29210	14920	21850	32600	65250	70000	18300	24520	55710	16930	26420	48580	16140	15550	24780	17800	29470	19360	15280	31300
2021-12-17	26870	27130	8765	15620	21470	13670	25860	23390	9140	41120	24500	23170	21800	32710	11300	39140	64220	50470	12280	35430	25750	21230	30480	32230	63730	43320	198800	19250	34160	26580	13390	14310	54620	11450	69170	19500	100300	24590	17800	53320	14700	27000	45320	83100	17190	53700	17580	17870	19480	19100	37850	33880	37340	17780	34200	18090	22370	64920	18430	29720	17000	24860	48280	7121	33100	31940	16460	24750	62680	59680	16890	16600	15310	21930	71290	8540	32120	1693	15400	11380	14600	75430	10770	97200	59120	8604	20340	63440	25260	20250	21860	14080	15740	45020	9794	32110	59480	49000	16480	58420	17340	24400	61760	20710	11800	18950	18680	16360	24660	19500	14250	14570	16830	54360	21800	27730	15680	22420	7406	23720	53040	24200	13710	19840	19490	25170	16740	14520	21270	52120	24900	16340	11140	13690	37760	21810	110700	20850	13690	20310	14780	45780	22180	16860	46290	26280	12970	31770	15980	42770	16940	26210	41070	15440	18920	14850	19520	48730	24170	18540	15400	20970	52250	19690	19440	49710	26510	16990	11700	20590	8815	20380	35750	21780	18200	19400	49190	29350	76520	33830	56540	23450	149800	70740	14000	47300	18250	17510	24370	97380	41720	29230	9682	8652	110400	20410	50030	8262	16550	13010	35150	11210	11650	23440	30650	23060	28950	13970	48560	13130	12710	8177	28430	22720	20710	58160	22270	60170	27640	33670	20560	13380	16900	29010	20410	17300	66120	27460	9503	31720	40190	11630	18000	41100	52650	19920	63360	24120	11350	47210	1019	24710	16070	18060	17430	37850	42680	37550	16440	28870	27920	56410	26080	15410	26550	31840	46200	12140	31450	7650	45410	15000	14450	12220	51410	19220	13510	21500	17120	5663	6854	53460	63780	16360	11860	18270	52870	15240	19510	99100	1135	46440	28950	39140	19340	15440	12310	22090	18700	47950	11070	13650	22280	13260	55490	17030	15250	20660	20560	21930	19420	29520	42380	32340	49850	17850	25700	36800	22860	16610	14850	13070	55400	37800	47800	18720	15910	53020	15060	36470	25200	44560	34550	44600	15230	14810	17660	32210	22780	19820	13150	21510	16260	34200	21110	20460	17400	9113	55360	46830	18530	13740	23640	18720	65350	51180	47650	56480	41610	22910	17470	18920	22080	13650	20290	22100	6886	15950	20190	14610	29350	15010	21940	32870	65370	70330	18400	24670	55890	17000	26580	48680	16220	15640	24890	17870	29640	19400	15340	31410
2021-12-18	26950	27220	8812	15650	21530	13720	25990	23530	9170	41270	24610	23220	21930	32840	11370	39350	64510	50580	12300	35610	25860	21290	30570	32360	63950	43550	199300	19330	34220	26630	13430	14350	54740	11500	69460	19620	100500	24680	17870	53540	14770	27090	45500	83390	17270	54100	17630	17940	19580	19130	37960	33990	37420	17930	34470	18140	22490	65100	18450	29780	17070	24960	48570	7153	33190	32080	16530	24870	62890	59960	16950	16680	15400	21980	71570	8566	32300	1709	15460	11420	14650	75750	10830	97400	59310	8639	20430	63850	25380	20300	22000	14150	15800	45170	9827	32210	59580	49240	16560	58580	17400	24440	62070	20810	11870	19030	18750	16430	24780	19580	14310	14620	16900	54520	21870	27890	15750	22540	7432	23880	53340	24330	13770	19910	19600	25280	16840	14550	21350	52300	25010	16420	11200	13720	37850	21890	110900	20950	13750	20390	14830	46090	22290	16940	46750	26340	13010	32020	16050	43090	17010	26290	41220	15540	18950	14910	19620	49000	24250	18620	15440	21020	52470	19770	19520	49930	26650	17030	11730	20690	8872	20480	36120	21900	18260	19450	49320	29540	76660	33920	57150	23480	150100	70900	14110	47680	18320	17580	24480	97640	41840	29340	9741	8676	110700	20460	50260	8300	16640	13030	35410	11260	11720	23580	30770	23140	29010	14020	48860	13210	12760	8225	28490	22860	20780	58310	22340	60470	27750	33850	20650	13450	16950	29090	20530	17380	66320	27560	9560	31850	40280	11680	18060	41230	52800	20030	63620	24180	11390	47310	1023	24840	16150	18080	17480	37930	42970	37710	16500	28930	28050	56680	26150	15470	26730	31940	46320	12170	31610	7681	45510	15080	14480	12280	51520	19300	13570	21580	17190	5691	6877	53610	63860	16390	11900	18340	53010	15290	19630	99300	1137	46630	29050	39270	19390	15490	12380	22240	18760	48160	11150	13700	22370	13300	55690	17120	15360	20820	20610	22030	19460	29580	42570	32520	50240	17920	25860	36890	22960	16660	14920	13110	55610	37900	47890	18810	15980	53120	15140	36700	25320	44690	34650	44700	15290	14900	17750	32310	22870	19950	13230	21590	16340	34400	21230	20540	17440	9160	55680	46990	18640	13810	23730	18850	65430	51300	47920	57050	41760	22990	17550	19050	22190	13700	20400	22220	6937	16000	20220	14670	29500	15090	22020	33100	65500	70660	18500	24820	56070	17070	26720	48780	16290	15730	24990	17920	29820	19440	15400	31520
2021-12-19	27030	27320	8862	15670	21590	13760	26130	23660	9196	41430	24730	23270	22060	32990	11430	39560	64840	50690	12320	35790	25980	21350	30670	32490	64160	43790	199700	19400	34270	26680	13470	14380	54870	11550	69760	19730	100700	24790	17950	53780	14860	27190	45690	83680	17350	54500	17690	18020	19680	19150	38070	34100	37490	18080	34690	18200	22610	65300	18480	29850	17140	25060	48850	7186	33280	32230	16610	24970	63110	60240	17010	16770	15500	22040	71860	8593	32480	1724	15530	11460	14700	76160	10890	97650	59520	8674	20530	64270	25480	20350	22140	14220	15870	45340	9860	32320	59700	49500	16650	58740	17460	24480	62400	20920	11940	19110	18810	16480	24900	19650	14360	14680	16950	54680	21940	28060	15820	22660	7458	24040	53650	24460	13830	19990	19700	25410	16940	14600	21420	52480	25120	16510	11260	13760	37950	21970	111200	21070	13820	20480	14880	46400	22390	17040	47220	26400	13050	32280	16130	43420	17080	26380	41360	15620	18980	14980	19710	49270	24320	18710	15470	21090	52700	19850	19600	50170	26800	17060	11760	20780	8930	20580	36500	22020	18330	19520	49450	29740	76790	34010	57760	23520	150500	71050	14210	48110	18380	17640	24580	97920	41960	29480	9798	8710	111000	20530	50500	8338	16730	13060	35690	11310	11780	23720	30880	23230	29070	14080	49160	13290	12810	8271	28550	23000	20840	58470	22410	60760	27860	34030	20740	13520	17010	29190	20660	17460	66500	27650	9611	31980	40410	11720	18140	41360	52960	20120	63880	24250	11430	47410	1027	24950	16230	18100	17540	38040	43230	37870	16560	28990	28190	56950	26220	15540	26910	32070	46430	12210	31790	7712	45610	15160	14510	12340	51650	19390	13640	21670	17260	5719	6897	53760	63950	16420	11950	18410	53150	15340	19740	99600	1140	46830	29140	39400	19440	15540	12460	22390	18810	48370	11240	13750	22470	13340	55870	17200	15490	20980	20670	22140	19500	29640	42750	32700	50530	18000	26000	36970	23040	16700	14990	13160	55820	38010	47990	18900	16050	53220	15230	36950	25440	44800	34750	44810	15340	14990	17830	32440	22960	20080	13310	21680	16430	34620	21350	20630	17480	9206	56010	47170	18760	13890	23820	18940	65550	51410	48250	57560	41900	23070	17620	19180	22330	13760	20500	22340	6986	16050	20250	14740	29620	15180	22110	33330	65610	70990	18580	24970	56230	17140	26850	48850	16380	15820	25090	17990	29990	19480	15470	31630
2021-12-20	27150	27450	8914	15700	21660	13800	26260	23810	9246	41580	24890	23340	22210	33160	11500	39820	65220	50820	12340	35990	26120	21410	30790	32630	64410	44020	200300	19480	34360	26740	13510	14430	55040	11600	70130	19850	100900	24910	18040	54000	14940	27300	45940	84050	17430	54940	17750	18100	19790	19210	38200	34220	37580	18220	34950	18260	22740	65560	18520	29960	17220	25160	49140	7218	33370	32380	16690	25150	63420	60520	17080	16870	15590	22120	72260	8623	32680	1740	15600	11500	14760	76600	10960	97990	59760	8710	20640	64690	25600	20420	22290	14290	15940	45510	9895	32430	59850	49810	16740	58940	17540	24540	62760	21030	12000	19210	18900	16560	25050	19730	14440	14750	17030	54850	22020	28240	15940	22790	7483	24220	53960	24600	13910	20080	19800	25560	17050	14660	21500	52730	25230	16600	11320	13800	38080	22050	111600	21200	13890	20570	14930	46720	22500	17170	47700	26470	13090	32570	16210	43760	17150	26470	41540	15720	19020	15070	19800	49620	24440	18790	15510	21190	52950	19940	19720	50410	26960	17110	11820	20890	9001	20690	36880	22200	18390	19610	49630	29940	76940	34100	58420	23590	150900	71280	14320	48570	18460	17710	24700	98280	42100	29650	9861	8761	111500	20600	50780	8375	16830	13090	35960	11380	11860	23870	30990	23330	29130	14150	49460	13370	12880	8328	28610	23140	20920	58650	22500	61250	27970	34220	20850	13590	17070	29300	20790	17540	66750	27750	9673	32120	40570	11760	18200	41510	53150	20210	64170	24340	11460	47530	1032	25090	16310	18120	17620	38180	43520	38070	16640	29070	28350	57220	26290	15600	27110	32220	46550	12240	32040	7743	45780	15250	14550	12430	51810	19470	13700	21760	17350	5750	6922	53970	64080	16460	11990	18480	53330	15400	19870	99900	1144	47070	29240	39560	19520	15610	12540	22560	18900	48580	11340	13810	22590	13390	56180	17300	15620	21160	20730	22260	19580	29700	42950	32900	50930	18080	26160	37080	23130	16760	15070	13210	56040	38120	48160	19010	16140	53340	15330	37220	25580	44940	34860	44960	15400	15080	17920	32610	23070	20220	13390	21770	16520	34870	21480	20740	17540	9256	56340	47390	18870	13960	23930	19040	65700	51550	48670	58060	42070	23150	17700	19320	22490	13820	20610	22480	7035	16120	20310	14800	29760	15300	22260	33580	65770	71320	18690	25130	56460	17220	27030	48950	16480	15920	25200	18100	30190	19520	15530	31750
2021-12-21	27250	27550	8969	15730	21720	13850	26400	23950	9279	41730	25030	23400	22350	33310	11570	40050	65560	50950	12360	36170	26250	21460	30920	32780	64700	44260	200900	19550	34450	26790	13550	14480	55170	11650	70480	19960	101200	25030	18120	54240	15030	27410	46200	84360	17520	55380	17810	18170	19890	19260	38320	34330	37670	18370	35190	18320	22870	65790	18550	30050	17310	25270	49430	7251	33470	32530	16780	25310	63690	60810	17140	16960	15680	22180	72600	8651	32850	1756	15660	11550	14820	77010	11020	98280	59990	8745	20750	65120	25710	20480	22430	14360	16010	45670	9929	32550	59990	50110	16830	59130	17620	24580	63080	21150	12070	19300	18980	16640	25180	19800	14500	14820	17090	55020	22100	28400	16040	22920	7508	24380	54280	24720	13990	20160	19910	25720	17150	14710	21570	52970	25350	16700	11370	13840	38190	22130	112000	21330	13960	20660	14980	47060	22610	17280	48190	26540	13130	32840	16290	44160	17230	26560	41700	15830	19050	15150	19890	49890	24560	18870	15560	21290	53190	20030	19810	50650	27130	17160	11860	20990	9058	20800	37260	22320	18470	19690	49780	30150	77100	34200	59090	23660	151300	71490	14440	48970	18530	17780	24820	98610	42240	29840	9925	8804	111800	20670	51050	8412	16920	13110	36220	11440	11920	24020	31090	23440	29190	14210	49760	13450	12940	8383	28670	23290	21010	58820	22580	61530	28070	34400	20950	13660	17130	29420	20920	17620	66990	27850	9733	32250	40710	11800	18280	41660	53310	20320	64440	24410	11500	47640	1037	25210	16400	18140	17680	38300	43810	38260	16700	29140	28500	57490	26370	15670	27320	32370	46670	12280	32210	7774	45920	15330	14580	12500	51970	19560	13770	21850	17430	5780	6946	54180	64200	16500	12030	18550	53500	15450	19990	100100	1148	47300	29330	39700	19570	15670	12630	22770	18970	48790	11430	13870	22700	13440	56420	17400	15760	21340	20790	22370	19660	29770	43150	33090	51340	18160	26340	37200	23230	16810	15150	13260	56250	38230	48300	19130	16220	53440	15410	37480	25720	45080	34970	45090	15470	15170	18010	32750	23170	20350	13470	21870	16610	35120	21610	20870	17590	9306	56750	47590	18980	14030	24030	19170	65820	51700	48960	58560	42230	23240	17780	19450	22610	13880	20730	22610	7084	16190	20360	14870	29910	15400	22380	33860	65910	71660	18800	25280	56670	17320	27190	49040	16570	16020	25310	18190	30380	19570	15590	31870

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-12-14 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-12-14