COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-12-20

	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	2021-08-31	2021-08-30	--	2021-09-14	--	2021-11-03	--	--	2021-08-24	2021-12-09	2021-11-21	--	2021-11-21	--	--	--	--	2021-07-06	2021-12-09	--	--	2021-10-03	2021-10-12	--	--	--	12-29	--	12-27	2021-07-08	2021-10-08	--	--	2021-12-07	2021-12-07	--	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	--	2021-12-07	--	2021-12-09	--	2021-12-09	--	--	--	--	--	2021-07-07	--	2021-10-11	2021-12-09	2021-12-07	2021-12-07	2021-10-06	--	--	2021-07-07	2021-08-29	2021-07-07	2021-11-09	--	2021-10-11	--	--	2021-10-10	2021-12-05	--	--	--	--	2021-12-07	--	2021-08-22	2021-08-24	--	2021-10-26	2021-09-09	2021-10-18	2021-08-30	2021-11-21	2021-12-07	2021-07-02	--	2021-10-11	2021-07-08	--	--	2021-10-06	--	2021-12-07	--	--	--	2021-08-13	2021-07-07	--	--	2021-07-07	2021-08-16	2021-06-21	--	2021-08-29	2021-12-07	2021-10-10	2021-08-18	--	--	2021-10-05	2021-12-07	2021-10-03	2021-08-22	2021-07-06	2021-10-08	--	2021-11-14	--	2021-10-02	--	--	--	--	--	2021-11-24	2021-12-07	--	--	2021-08-13	2021-08-29	2021-09-08	--	2021-10-11	2021-10-12	2021-10-15	--	2021-08-23	2021-11-21	2021-10-11	--	2021-07-07	2021-12-07	--	2021-11-12	2021-12-07	2021-10-05	2021-11-09	2021-12-06	--	2021-12-07	2021-10-11	2021-10-04	--	--	2021-07-05	2021-11-21	2021-11-21	--	2021-09-16	--	2021-10-06	2021-11-02	--	--	--	--	2021-12-07	2021-06-23	2021-08-23	--	2021-12-09	2021-11-14	2021-12-06	2021-12-07	2021-09-17	2021-10-11	2021-07-07	2021-12-08	2021-10-06	12-27	2021-12-06	--	2021-07-07	2021-01-03	--	2021-12-07	--	2021-12-07	--	12-26	--	2021-12-07	--	2021-12-09	2021-12-09	--	--	2021-11-13	2021-10-11	12-08	--	2021-11-13	--	--	2021-11-09	2021-11-11	2021-07-07	2021-12-07	--	--	2021-12-07	2021-12-07	2021-09-07	--	--	2021-07-03	2021-12-07	2021-12-09	2021-10-12	2021-11-23	2021-12-07	2021-11-15	2021-10-04	2021-07-03	--	--	2021-08-22	2021-09-21	--	2021-10-10	2021-10-11	2021-10-11	--	2021-12-07	2021-10-12	--	2021-12-07	2021-09-27	--	2021-07-07	2021-10-16	2021-12-07	2021-10-09	2021-07-07	2021-12-07	--	2021-12-07	2021-11-22	2021-10-09	--	2021-12-07	2021-10-10	2021-10-09	2021-10-06	--	2021-08-23	2021-09-11	2021-12-07	--	2021-11-11	--	--	--	2021-11-22	2021-10-08	2021-12-08	--	--	2021-11-21	--	2021-10-10	--	2021-07-06	2021-11-07	12-23	2021-10-11	2021-12-08	--	--	--	07-21	2021-11-08	2021-12-09	2021-12-07	2021-10-07	2021-08-18	--	--	--	2021-10-11	2021-11-23	2021-12-07	--	2021-09-26	2021-12-07	--	--	2021-12-07	--	2021-10-10	2021-10-10	2021-06-27	--	--	2021-12-08	--	--	2021-10-10	2021-09-13	2021-10-06	--	2021-12-07	--	2021-07-06	2021-10-03	--	2021-10-07	2021-07-05	--	--	2021-12-06	2021-09-26	2021-10-10	--	2021-12-07	--	2021-11-16	2021-11-21	2021-12-08	--	2021-10-11	--	--	--	--	2021-11-15	2021-10-11	2021-11-13	2021-12-06	--	--	--	2021-10-10	2021-12-09	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-12-06	2021-12-07	--	2021-10-10	--	--	--	2021-12-07	--	--	2021-11-24	2021-08-25	2021-07-07	2021-10-05	2021-12-09	2021-12-09	2021-12-07	2021-12-07	2021-07-07	2021-10-11	--	--	2021-06-29	--	2021-12-08	2021-12-07	2021-07-06	--	2021-12-08	2021-10-06	--	2021-10-05	2021-10-05	2021-06-30
Peak daily increment	179	224		98		89			97	265	156		147					276	65			112	287				1249		157	159	126			71	461		478	103		743		132		811						74		249	150	262	857	100			115	190	101	161		61			203	266					196		567	69		21	102	78	72	462	104	607		48	99			93		106				202	400			269	137	184		133	99	116	183			108	123	95	157	295	93		110		33						116	189			171	421	121		104	70	156		941	140	107		113	851		164	2671	125	73	723		844	79	157			146	98	119		165		90	152					221	71	136		84	117	993	475	139	112	247	461	316	311	1709		707	284		1099		103		727		261		53	1176			50	164	105		87			175	140	274	131			99	83	184			384	178	1032	190	206	174	124	100	256			621	176		291	227	47		235	270		788	131		255	22	327	145	56	117		316	217	109		265	128	106	77		289	268	66		42				86	233	127			84		48		255	84	83	131	258				24	259	163	219	202	118				370	105	82		85	489			262		178	83	303			1400			142	143	104		101		339	199		201	428			175	270	329		73		149	158	177		150					129	134	107	1235				160	223	352	191	773	1676		144				91			57	158	94	101	304	160	150	862	380	632			243		278	208	99		123	108		116	93	138
Days since peak	111	112		97		47			118	11	29		29					167	11			78	69				356		358	165	73			13	13		166	166		13		11		11						166		70	11	13	13	75			166	113	166	41		70			71	15					13		120	118		55	102	63	112	29	13	171		70	165			75		13				129	166			166	126	182		113	13	71	124			76	13	78	120	167	73		36		79						26	13			129	113	103		70	69	66		119	29	70		166	13		38	13	76	41	14		13	70	77			168	29	29		95		75	48					13	180	119		11	36	14	13	94	70	166	12	75	358	14		166	351		13		13		359		13		11	11			37	70	377		37			41	39	166	13			13	13	104			170	13	11	69	27	13	35	77	170			120	90		71	70	70		13	69		13	84		166	65	13	72	166	13		13	28	72		13	71	72	75		119	100	13		39				28	73	12			29		71		167	43	362	70	12				517	42	11	13	74	124				70	27	13		85	13			13		71	71	176			12			71	98	75		13		167	78		74	168			14	85	71		13		34	29	12		70					35	70	37	14				71	11	167	166	14	13		71				13			26	117	166	76	11	11	13	13	166	70			174		12	13	167		12	75		76	76	173
Last total	27330	27716	9051	15911	22125	13874	26359	24113	9402	42102	24955	23827	22548	33895	11711	41395	67636	51009	12538	36965	26869	21464	31493	33194	65300	46352	203164	19830	34632	26942	13576	14617	55822	11668	71096	20362	101505	25642	18441	56606	15619	27544	47687	86677	17923	57564	18078	18812	20313	19399	38993	34521	37975	18791	37594	18458	23398	67393	18634	30295	17706	25240	50116	7378	34415	33562	17000	25571	64622	61203	17313	17134	16155	22462	74308	8744	33665	1710	15806	11508	14931	76606	11212	98531	60899	8771	21001	68143	26762	20541	23020	14488	16138	46449	10107	32863	60473	50148	16998	59585	17523	24822	65156	21065	12173	19310	19222	17038	26222	19829	14689	14966	17228	55309	22202	29025	16042	23212	7538	25318	56147	25645	14663	20542	19900	25611	17230	14909	21747	53265	25426	16891	11363	13967	38285	22783	113566	21202	13882	21125	15154	49487	23719	17204	50304	26898	13240	34769	16465	46251	17695	26829	43292	16075	19114	15188	19966	51719	24527	19604	15799	21290	54609	20282	20291	52039	27415	17235	11905	21523	9168	20772	39457	23809	18545	19874	49823	31195	77673	34488	62756	24170	153408	72503	14502	51905	18713	17929	25054	100009	42997	30289	10114	8880	114715	20986	52202	8452	16925	13259	37943	11383	12245	24431	31108	23436	29243	14395	50403	13868	13129	8410	29021	23535	21432	59256	22987	63739	28310	34177	21088	13527	17307	29255	21514	17792	67471	27865	9776	32649	40839	11856	18526	42138	53547	20935	66198	24624	11694	48181	1069	25871	16507	18338	17804	38763	43497	38383	16788	29423	28993	59338	26356	15665	27979	32837	47329	12437	34056	7731	46399	15731	14764	12521	52403	19725	14291	22474	17638	5852	7049	55430	64874	16521	12126	18639	54066	15612	20654	101702	1181	47156	29619	40060	19730	15812	12810	23062	19215	49076	11301	13971	22863	13611	56937	17746	15688	21656	21153	22393	19775	29957	43876	33971	55337	18721	27298	37502	23428	16913	15629	13420	57246	38329	48750	19187	16380	53694	15747	39005	25944	45728	35526	45925	15437	15632	18021	32675	23561	20465	13421	22137	17176	36040	22095	20738	17757	9181	59724	48570	19506	14581	24345	19547	66268	52108	51146	63152	42820	23778	18406	19807	22860	14023	21467	23074	7026	16448	20641	14911	30449	15611	22648	36051	66855	72370	19497	25885	57048	17948	27832	49645	16557	16146	25289	18305	30844	19679	15661	32442
Last daily increment	19	15	52	64	150	10	240	270	9	285	135	190	217	304	92	605	679	174	52	365	265	65	185	230	541	604	714	164	122	105	16	65	229	47	511	225	221	290	142	681	187	83	500	653	147	853	104	218	204	103	239	93	122	180	615	59	264	404	60	136	181	171	501	81	310	435	99	196	368	352	88	140	202	130	100	1	377	2	18	56	81	398	109	412	338	37	140	1083	408	112	257	102	20	317	71	248	233	305	135	289	13	37	765	28	76	128	28	159	379	98	5	86	6	180	62	252	105	189	22	349	665	285	203	135	106	10	103	112	148	75	60	173	56	71	229	244	124	88	84	212	82	662	326	50	818	121	90	596	129	606	220	146	484	161	77	72	144	718	65	221	82	0	533	133	199	556	231	75	15	190	47	87	589	396	100	136	130	409	199	204	1085	157	621	407	153	760	85	116	226	678	249	225	107	35	594	133	634	58	101	43	595	58	127	247	170	130	100	2	493	173	43	5	57	193	173	320	154	822	133	264	22	53	96	46	291	143	75	89	64	192	234	41	133	240	290	155	569	92	95	123	5	223	116	85	12	189	282	220	40	107	210	702	109	61	317	65	202	53	507	41	256	199	101	85	197	115	190	227	144	52	36	377	262	29	11	81	306	73	247	420	5	166	151	178	108	19	125	234	88	288	95	74	128	66	102	154	107	248	147	147	93	161	308	420	863	222	378	200	141	60	220	4	320	213	261	116	89	196	180	591	221	134	217	344	57	193	123	114	201	196	61	148	204	470	265	93	75	50	710	251	227	192	121	186	193	232	626	1169	306	183	241	222	182	93	300	208	49	42	117	75	13	151	173	572	330	498	209	325	203	198	273	176	68	129	9	69	339	70	88	157
Last week	734	868	406	372	814	335	1002	1239	364	1574	817	808	1116	1611	578	2871	4405	892	313	2075	1462	411	1288	1307	2533	3599	5820	781	694	524	271	402	1615	365	2824	1178	1681	1331	849	3935	1126	744	2913	4349	982	4989	656	1144	1139	402	1536	842	840	1343	4086	502	1393	2955	309	758	900	770	2691	329	1670	2066	715	1187	2668	2236	594	795	1108	749	3890	281	2059	58	498	245	475	2257	612	2189	2365	264	967	5770	1871	449	1521	592	512	1808	393	1165	1391	1896	750	1663	397	568	4322	664	544	625	760	907	1954	527	629	575	641	1462	567	1691	573	1140	206	2051	3828	1733	1143	901	705	855	780	509	761	1731	774	828	357	374	846	1197	3843	681	385	1038	529	4444	1882	552	6538	806	411	3525	699	4362	906	842	2620	922	299	533	710	3791	657	1268	508	553	2960	799	1102	2990	1345	366	315	1170	479	670	4633	2295	543	659	1049	2402	1559	906	7791	869	4721	2194	805	5665	638	605	1112	3487	1656	1472	599	336	5329	717	2852	305	627	283	3518	351	776	1398	899	745	468	616	2651	961	513	364	669	1173	936	1662	898	4403	870	1198	791	350	570	548	1473	686	2129	699	428	1278	1040	325	687	1399	1408	1295	3661	690	439	1249	57	1562	602	353	543	1181	1632	1321	490	726	1434	3694	499	426	1942	1398	1292	395	3083	179	1360	979	425	483	1387	717	940	1240	748	273	267	2474	1441	282	373	555	1618	501	1355	3388	57	1333	922	1311	559	539	732	1415	686	1716	538	441	874	453	2216	992	793	1446	791	764	491	603	1986	2151	6358	1102	2084	943	816	419	960	488	2505	851	1362	774	648	992	912	3186	1075	1365	1232	1652	383	1067	616	831	1063	1004	476	864	1117	2492	1335	573	506	214	5326	2345	1286	1103	889	1210	1295	1271	4121	7723	1682	1050	1120	1233	1132	523	1488	1267	288	654	598	490	1485	887	959	3786	1878	2941	1338	1656	1764	1147	1651	1269	590	715	578	643	1707	394	476	1353
Previous peak date	07-21	07-21	12-27	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	07-21	12-22	12-26	07-21	12-21	12-21	2021-10-03	12-07	12-21	12-27	12-27	12-21	10-13	2021-09-26	12-22	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	11-02	12-27	2021-07-11	12-21	11-02	12-27	10-13	10-13	12-07	2021-01-07	10-12	11-14	2021-01-01	12-21	10-24	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-14	12-06	12-27	11-02	12-27	12-21	2021-07-07	12-21	2021-07-05	12-30	10-21	12-07	2021-10-02	12-22	12-27	12-26	12-06	12-07	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-22	12-21	--	11-02	12-21	2021-08-10	12-25	2021-07-07	12-26	2021-07-07	12-22	2021-10-11	2021-07-07	07-21	07-21	12-23	--	12-29	2021-07-06	12-27	2021-08-09	12-24	11-02	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	12-26	12-27	12-21	2021-07-05	12-21	12-27	2021-07-07	12-28	2021-10-03	09-30	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	07-21	07-21	12-28	07-21	12-24	2021-08-10	07-21	12-27	12-21	11-09	07-21	2021-07-06	07-21	10-31	12-27	12-26	12-28	12-21	12-26	12-21	12-27	12-21	12-22	2021-07-07	2021-08-10	07-21	12-23	2021-10-05	12-22	07-21	12-25	12-27	2021-07-06	2021-07-05	2021-07-04	2021-07-06	07-21	2021-07-07	12-28	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-21	2021-01-05	12-22	12-27	2021-07-07	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-27	12-21	12-22	12-23	12-13	12-27	12-21	12-29	12-21	2021-07-04	2021-08-25	12-27	2021-07-07	12-27	12-27	12-27	2021-01-01	07-21	2021-10-04	2021-09-26	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-25	11-01	12-22	10-27	09-29	12-29	2021-07-08	11-02	11-02	12-22	12-27	2021-07-07	11-02	12-22	09-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	2021-07-07	11-02	2021-01-03	12-21	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	--	12-21	2021-08-09	12-26	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-31	07-21	12-21	12-27	12-06	--	12-07	12-27	2021-07-07	11-02	2021-07-07	12-27	12-06	12-27	07-21	2021-08-09	2021-07-07	10-26	12-27	12-27	07-21	11-01	12-27	2021-07-07	2021-07-04	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	12-27	2021-07-06	2021-01-03	11-02	2021-07-08	11-02	10-22	--	2021-06-22	12-28	12-26	07-21	2021-01-04	2021-07-07	11-02	12-06	11-02	12-29	12-22	2021-07-07	2021-01-05	12-21	07-21	12-06	12-27	12-21	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	12-13	2021-07-05	12-13	10-18	12-30	12-27	2021-07-07	12-25	2021-01-26	2021-01-02	11-02	12-29	2021-07-06	07-21	2021-08-09	12-28	12-28	12-21	11-02	--	12-30	12-25	2021-07-06	12-21	07-21	12-21	12-27	12-28	2021-07-07	2021-08-09	2021-01-04	12-21	11-09	07-21	2021-10-10	12-22	12-21	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	12-27	12-22	12-26	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-25	2021-07-07	12-27	07-21	2021-07-07	12-27	2021-07-05	12-27	2021-07-08	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-02	12-25	2021-07-07	2021-06-22	12-22	2021-08-09	2021-01-04	12-27	2021-07-06	12-26	12-27	12-21	12-21	12-21	2021-07-07	12-06	2021-08-09	12-21	2021-09-27	12-21	12-21	12-08	12-21	11-01	12-27	12-27	12-15	12-27	11-02	12-21	12-25	12-27	2021-09-29	12-28	2021-10-08	2021-08-09	07-21	11-02	12-07	07-21	12-22	12-27	12-22	10-16	12-29	2021-10-10	12-21	12-28	12-26	12-22	12-27	12-31	12-27	12-25	12-31	12-27	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	11-02
Previous peak daily increment	605	360	72	115	116	285	145	82	115	260	170	130	176	200	86	533	628	189	70	338	162	144	277	256	401	471	1200	68	166	98	95	58	233	49	484	157	434	228	121	524	171	233	370	1167	120	579	104	206	106	122	167	211	177	92	256	87	167	374	172	194	175	107	301		269	284	65	197	283	291	81	87	125	121	1221	82	242		35	114	94	708	34	551	427	53	181	641	162	140	201	69	81	254	67	204	248	187	125	322	216	697	557	296	60	135	370	85	182	106	184	65	231	206	102	176	146	117	56	164	646	273	103	118	128	457	90	88	94	661	150	138	56	81	274	130	1697	95	56	187	92	451	135	34	377	218	84	201	59	401	172	103	361	104	106	136	120	505	101	176	73	203	472	94	134	482	138	83	239	168	64	237	275	148	70	100	283	198	349	153	428	121	1522	469	104	457	80	229	111	480	303	200	96	47	2166	102	427	40	71		298	72	61	139	186	105	213	296	388	79	62		191	119	134	2512	105	723	190	212	186	84	94	137	116	55	969	105	65	203	228	77	102	277	322	138	1362	158	57	257		131	44	108	227	162	343	347	43	133	174	620	297	81	182	445	286	52	203	67	228	147	69	96	198	80	91	122	174	38	25	380	448	94	147	123	407	64	148	557		209	244	277	97	218	113	115	69	345	86	42	90	73	839	144	79	106	101	106	102	115	242	342	451	143	177	222	94	77	114	144	257	138	240	73	69	206	111	341	189	270	181	224	83	116	143	140	349	108	44	137	154	390	149	131	101	61	559	286	97	119	120	84	245	329	449	390	246	260	155	119	188	90	156	207	70	296	165	42	369	67	115	217	319	264	159	168	431	110	138	377	106	139	176	95	186	120	74	573
Low between peaks	0	-1		24		0			-26	5	-11		-7					9	30			54	-14				307		55	-9	0			2	-34		31	-4		-39		1		-18						3		0	73	2	-17	-6			-9	2	-2	3					21	-3					54		-11	-4			1	25	2	227	-1	-13		16	-8			43		-7				11	1			-4	-48	-3		-2	-3	49	-3			-2	-5	30	-1	-5	1		-6		0						44	-4			4	-5	1		19	32	75		-7	21	-8		-8	-25		1	-27	-25	27	-5		-12	-2	-17			-1	-8	-12		-9		33	59					-5	3	-2		30	-5	-5	-5	-3	-3	-12	-3	27	20	2		40	120		-18		-9		58		-22		14	27			11	31			20			6	2	5	-15			0		1			15	38	4	2	8	-8	32	39	-3			-7	5		57	88	22		-3	111		6	50		6		51	1	3	1		108	-23	0		-8	1	49	-51		-2	1	0		17				-6	0	-2			-14		-8		-1	40	-4	40	-45					-28	4	91	-10	-2				58	34	3		-4	-7			-1		42	-10	2			-16			-39	-13	27		-1		4	85		25	1			-40	3	-9		30		34	-12	-3		-4					51	1	29	5				1	-18	16	-9	-22	-4		-4				40			17	-2	1	-4	-2	-1	-12	7	6	-36			-68		-11	-19	-2		2	1		44	35	-48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-12-21 to 2021-12-27

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-12-20	27330	27716	9051	15911	22125	13874	26359	24113	9402	42102	24955	23827	22548	33895	11711	41395	67636	51009	12538	36965	26869	21464	31493	33194	65300	46352	203164	19830	34632	26942	13576	14617	55822	11668	71096	20362	101505	25642	18441	56606	15619	27544	47687	86677	17923	57564	18078	18812	20313	19399	38993	34521	37975	18791	37594	18458	23398	67393	18634	30295	17706	25240	50116	7378	34415	33562	17000	25571	64622	61203	17313	17134	16155	22462	74308	8744	33665	1710	15806	11508	14931	76606	11212	98531	60899	8771	21001	68143	26762	20541	23020	14488	16138	46449	10107	32863	60473	50148	16998	59585	17523	24822	65156	21065	12173	19310	19222	17038	26222	19829	14689	14966	17228	55309	22202	29025	16042	23212	7538	25318	56147	25645	14663	20542	19900	25611	17230	14909	21747	53265	25426	16891	11363	13967	38285	22783	113566	21202	13882	21125	15154	49487	23719	17204	50304	26898	13240	34769	16465	46251	17695	26829	43292	16075	19114	15188	19966	51719	24527	19604	15799	21290	54609	20282	20291	52039	27415	17235	11905	21523	9168	20772	39457	23809	18545	19874	49823	31195	77673	34488	62756	24170	153408	72503	14502	51905	18713	17929	25054	100009	42997	30289	10114	8880	114715	20986	52202	8452	16925	13259	37943	11383	12245	24431	31108	23436	29243	14395	50403	13868	13129	8410	29021	23535	21432	59256	22987	63739	28310	34177	21088	13527	17307	29255	21514	17792	67471	27865	9776	32649	40839	11856	18526	42138	53547	20935	66198	24624	11694	48181	1069	25871	16507	18338	17804	38763	43497	38383	16788	29423	28993	59338	26356	15665	27979	32837	47329	12437	34056	7731	46399	15731	14764	12521	52403	19725	14291	22474	17638	5852	7049	55430	64874	16521	12126	18639	54066	15612	20654	101702	1181	47156	29619	40060	19730	15812	12810	23062	19215	49076	11301	13971	22863	13611	56937	17746	15688	21656	21153	22393	19775	29957	43876	33971	55337	18721	27298	37502	23428	16913	15629	13420	57246	38329	48750	19187	16380	53694	15747	39005	25944	45728	35526	45925	15437	15632	18021	32675	23561	20465	13421	22137	17176	36040	22095	20738	17757	9181	59724	48570	19506	14581	24345	19547	66268	52108	51146	63152	42820	23778	18406	19807	22860	14023	21467	23074	7026	16448	20641	14911	30449	15611	22648	36051	66855	72370	19497	25885	57048	17948	27832	49645	16557	16146	25289	18305	30844	19679	15661	32442
2021-12-21	27440	27840	9156	15970	22240	13920	26520	24350	9402	42350	25120	23910	22590	34210	11800	42010	68520	51100	12600	37240	27180	21530	31700	33440	65720	47150	204200	19950	34630	27020	13620	14680	56080	11760	71560	20630	101600	25870	18630	56620	15830	27660	48290	87360	18130	58560	18220	19040	20510	19400	39310	34650	38120	18870	37680	18530	23670	68020	18680	30380	17860	25350	50720	7441	34420	33980	17100	25760	65060	61640	17400	17260	16180	22530	74690	8758	34010	1722	15860	11550	14960	77130	11310	99000	61380	8811	21160	69530	27100	20570	23400	14580	16220	46730	10180	33070	60740	50450	17150	59860	17640	24930	66130	21150	12220	19430	19270	17240	26600	19910	14720	15000	17260	55530	22290	29330	16150	23340	7566	25690	56820	25650	14910	20710	20010	25740	17340	15010	21890	53350	25550	17030	11420	14040	38460	22990	113900	21380	13950	21310	15240	49550	24030	17330	50340	27050	13300	35060	16570	46520	17850	26940	43700	16220	19160	15270	20080	52620	24650	19850	15900	21410	55230	20320	20480	52620	27490	17260	11950	21860	9247	20880	39970	23940	18620	19890	50060	31200	77920	34610	62970	24270	154200	72860	14620	52260	18800	18020	25230	100500	43260	30590	10220	8924	115400	21130	52560	8495	17030	13300	38000	11480	12400	24700	31230	23550	29310	14430	50860	14050	13180	8463	29080	23690	21600	59530	23140	63800	28440	34380	21090	13750	17400	29350	21930	17930	67470	27970	9880	32850	40890	11900	18610	42400	53760	20940	66740	24680	11770	48420	1076	26180	16600	18400	17850	38820	43890	38590	16890	29550	29210	59960	26440	15730	28300	32960	47540	12500	35010	7764	46560	15910	14860	12610	52600	19850	14470	22670	17760	5908	7083	56060	64870	16560	12180	18730	54330	15690	20850	102300	1188	47430	29660	40270	19810	15850	12960	23320	19320	49330	11390	14040	22940	13680	57460	17900	15810	21660	21280	22510	19840	30090	44190	34390	55840	18930	27680	37640	23550	16970	15810	13450	57590	38500	48880	19270	16430	53730	15860	39360	26110	45830	35730	46160	15530	15770	18120	32860	23750	20630	13500	22310	17380	36570	22370	20840	17790	9246	59820	49040	19710	14800	24380	19710	66400	52300	51170	63390	43080	23950	18680	20020	22970	14120	21730	23340	7102	16490	20750	14990	30530	15680	22790	36310	67160	72850	19860	26190	57230	18130	28100	49760	16650	16240	25480	18370	31070	19740	15730	32640
2021-12-22	27560	27920	9246	16020	22390	13970	26630	24590	9417	42590	25280	24050	22720	34540	11870	42730	69390	51240	12650	37630	27450	21590	31920	33730	66010	47870	205300	20050	34660	27060	13670	14750	56340	11830	72070	20870	101900	26070	18800	57280	16040	27780	48780	88070	18360	59690	18360	19280	20720	19430	39720	34740	38280	19120	38200	18560	23950	68620	18700	30490	18000	25440	51330	7493	34770	34380	17130	25870	65530	62080	17490	17340	16380	22530	75120	8758	34370	1744	15930	11590	15030	77650	11420	99500	61990	8843	21330	70560	27390	20630	23730	14620	16340	46990	10250	33260	61000	50780	17310	60160	17750	25030	67040	21260	12240	19550	19270	17450	26980	19980	14720	15100	17260	55720	22370	29700	16260	23540	7589	26140	57550	25940	15130	20890	20120	25900	17430	15110	22020	53490	25670	17160	11490	14110	38620	23180	114300	21550	14040	21500	15340	50290	24380	17550	50970	27180	13310	35590	16660	47180	17980	26970	44120	16350	19170	15370	20190	53380	24780	20120	16010	21530	55890	20430	20670	53280	27680	17290	12000	22150	9338	21000	40480	24320	18680	19950	50280	31600	78180	34610	63950	24380	155000	73220	14720	53100	18840	18050	25350	101100	43540	30830	10320	8952	116100	21280	52990	8524	17120	13320	38540	11570	12580	24980	31320	23660	29350	14430	51290	14260	13230	8521	29100	23770	21770	59780	23290	64550	28500	34580	21120	13930	17490	29540	22330	18070	67510	28070	9960	33070	41020	11940	18740	42670	53840	21010	67250	24680	11840	48640	1076	26500	16680	18450	17880	38940	44230	38790	16990	29680	29440	60550	26510	15810	28680	33090	47760	12580	35850	7803	46840	16080	14950	12700	52840	19990	14630	22890	17870	5970	7087	56680	64960	16600	12210	18800	54610	15770	20970	103000	1188	47720	29750	40510	19840	15850	13110	23590	19440	49500	11520	14070	23080	13760	57910	18060	15940	21920	21400	22620	19920	30160	44560	34790	56820	19140	28070	37790	23620	17010	15980	13450	57900	38640	49070	19400	16430	53830	16060	39400	26160	45830	35910	46460	15610	15970	18230	33030	23940	20800	13600	22490	17590	37060	22630	21010	17850	9281	60540	49470	19930	15000	24480	19860	66620	52500	51860	64290	43280	24130	18960	20240	23130	14210	21980	23570	7160	16490	20850	15030	30530	15680	22870	36900	67480	73350	20180	26530	57470	18310	28390	49930	16740	16290	25620	18470	31440	19800	15770	32860
2021-12-23	27690	28020	9334	16070	22520	14020	26750	24810	9437	42830	25420	24180	22880	34800	11950	43450	70240	51360	12690	37960	27700	21650	32130	33970	66350	48530	206300	20160	34710	27110	13720	14810	56620	11910	72520	21130	102100	26270	18970	57900	16230	27900	49210	88750	18580	60790	18470	19500	20920	19460	40070	34850	38410	19330	38720	18610	24220	69290	18730	30620	18140	25540	51880	7548	35070	34790	17200	26010	65960	62480	17580	17440	16560	22530	75480	8759	34710	1762	16030	11630	15090	78050	11520	99900	62550	8878	21490	71480	27670	20690	24060	14690	16450	47260	10320	33450	61230	51070	17460	60420	17850	25130	67940	21370	12280	19660	19280	17620	27350	20050	14730	15180	17270	55920	22450	30030	16350	23700	7614	26550	58250	26220	15340	21090	20230	26050	17520	15220	22150	53630	25790	17290	11550	14180	38770	23350	114700	21680	14110	21680	15430	50970	24700	17720	51580	27310	13340	36100	16750	47840	18120	27040	44540	16490	19200	15460	20290	54110	24890	20370	16100	21620	56460	20540	20850	53900	27850	17350	12040	22400	9417	21110	40990	24640	18740	20050	50460	31980	78400	34670	64900	24490	155700	73580	14820	53890	18900	18100	25490	101600	43780	31090	10420	8988	116800	21430	53500	8558	17220	13350	39050	11650	12750	25260	31420	23770	29400	14440	51730	14450	13280	8579	29140	23890	21920	60020	23400	65270	28590	34770	21160	14050	17580	29690	22690	18180	67600	28170	10030	33280	41140	11980	18840	42890	53980	21060	67740	24700	11900	48890	1076	26750	16770	18500	17920	39090	44510	38990	17080	29810	29620	61140	26580	15870	29010	33240	47970	12650	36710	7837	47100	16240	15020	12790	53050	20110	14800	23090	17980	6025	7105	57290	65080	16640	12250	18880	54890	15850	21130	103500	1191	47960	29840	40720	19890	15870	13240	23860	19540	49710	11630	14120	23230	13830	58290	18190	16070	22170	21510	22730	19980	30260	44970	35190	57710	19350	28440	37930	23700	17050	16150	13450	58230	38790	49290	19520	16460	53970	16230	39580	26260	45880	36100	46750	15680	16200	18330	33170	24130	20960	13690	22660	17790	37570	22900	21140	17940	9306	61240	49880	20140	15190	24610	20010	66820	52710	52500	65190	43510	24300	19250	20450	23280	14300	22240	23800	7221	16490	20960	15090	30530	15710	22970	37450	67770	73820	20420	26850	57690	18480	28660	50090	16830	16360	25750	18580	31810	19860	15830	33070
2021-12-24	27800	28130	9409	16120	22630	14070	26880	25010	9471	43070	25560	24310	23020	35010	12020	44080	70980	51470	12720	38240	27930	21710	32330	34190	66700	49010	207200	20270	34740	27170	13770	14870	56850	11970	72930	21340	102300	26470	19130	58550	16420	28020	49580	89420	18760	61830	18570	19700	21120	19500	40370	34960	38510	19530	39230	18670	24480	69850	18760	30710	18280	25630	52350	7602	35220	35120	17280	26160	66350	62790	17670	17550	16740	22570	75820	8770	35040	1777	16100	11660	15140	78380	11610	100200	63070	8914	21610	72340	27880	20750	24250	14760	16540	47520	10380	33630	61420	51350	17610	60660	17910	25210	68740	21470	12320	19750	19310	17770	27700	20120	14760	15250	17300	56130	22530	30350	16420	23840	7640	26940	58920	26500	15540	21260	20340	26200	17620	15310	22270	53740	25910	17420	11610	14250	38910	23520	115100	21780	14180	21860	15520	51600	24980	17870	52130	27440	13380	36560	16850	48440	18260	27130	44860	16620	19230	15540	20400	54750	24990	20610	16170	21710	56960	20630	21000	54480	28010	17380	12090	22510	9484	21220	41500	24930	18810	20130	50610	32330	78600	34750	65830	24580	156400	73900	14930	54560	18970	18170	25640	102100	43990	31280	10510	9028	117500	21570	53930	8594	17310	13380	39530	11720	12910	25480	31530	23880	29460	14470	52170	14600	13340	8636	29180	24010	22060	60260	23530	65930	28690	34950	21210	14140	17670	29810	23010	18280	67740	28270	10090	33480	41260	12030	18910	43100	54140	21130	68220	24730	11970	49090	1080	27000	16850	18560	17970	39190	44750	39180	17160	29930	29790	61730	26650	15940	29300	33370	48180	12710	37250	7869	47290	16400	15090	12850	53230	20240	14970	23250	18090	6076	7128	57820	65180	16680	12290	18960	55150	15930	21300	104000	1195	48170	29910	40910	19950	15900	13360	24110	19650	49930	11720	14180	23320	13900	58640	18350	16190	22410	21590	22840	20050	30360	45290	35590	58490	19510	28780	38070	23800	17100	16310	13470	58560	38940	49450	19620	16500	54080	16400	39830	26370	45960	36280	46970	15740	16380	18430	33300	24310	21120	13770	22820	17980	38000	23150	21260	18010	9335	61930	50270	20320	15330	24720	20160	66990	52880	53110	66070	43740	24470	19440	20630	23400	14380	22490	24000	7273	16490	21040	15160	30570	15760	23090	37920	68030	74280	20650	27150	57890	18610	28920	50240	16920	16430	25850	18670	32080	19910	15890	33260
2021-12-25	27880	28250	9469	16180	22750	14120	27020	25210	9479	43300	25670	24430	23150	35180	12090	44450	71570	51580	12760	38510	28090	21770	32530	34390	67060	49490	208000	20380	34780	27230	13810	14930	57050	12020	73280	21520	102500	26670	19290	59110	16600	28140	49900	90080	18970	62880	18660	19890	21310	19540	40640	35070	38620	19710	39750	18730	24750	70370	18800	30800	18420	25730	52840	7657	35340	35430	17360	26320	66710	63180	17750	17660	16900	22610	76100	8783	35370	1792	16150	11680	15200	78680	11710	100500	63580	8951	21740	72830	28090	20800	24570	14840	16630	47790	10440	33820	61590	51590	17760	60860	17970	25290	69440	21560	12360	19840	19360	17930	28060	20200	14790	15310	17330	56340	22610	30660	16490	24000	7666	27330	59590	26770	15710	21400	20440	26350	17720	15390	22400	53890	26030	17560	11670	14320	39050	23680	115400	21870	14250	22040	15600	52220	25250	18010	52670	27580	13420	36920	16940	48920	18400	27210	45160	16760	19270	15620	20500	55360	25080	20860	16240	21790	57460	20750	21120	55060	28190	17420	12130	22660	9539	21330	42020	25210	18880	20190	50720	32690	78800	34830	66760	24630	157100	74190	15040	55210	19050	18230	25790	102600	44190	31480	10600	9068	118100	21710	54410	8632	17410	13410	40010	11800	13070	25780	31640	23990	29520	14500	52610	14730	13390	8692	29230	24150	22200	60500	23650	66530	28800	35130	21260	14230	17760	29930	23330	18380	67860	28370	10140	33680	41360	12070	18970	43290	54300	21220	68700	24770	12040	49270	1085	27230	16930	18610	18010	39290	44970	39370	17220	30050	29940	62320	26720	16010	29590	33480	48380	12770	37630	7901	47450	16550	15150	12910	53410	20360	15130	23410	18200	6125	7153	58300	65280	16720	12340	19050	55370	16010	21470	104500	1201	48350	29990	41100	20020	15930	13460	24370	19750	50150	11820	14230	23410	13970	58970	18500	16310	22640	21660	22950	20120	30470	45590	35990	59280	19660	29120	38180	23900	17150	16480	13490	58890	39090	49580	19710	16540	54180	16560	40100	26500	46030	36470	47230	15790	16590	18520	33410	24480	21280	13850	22990	18150	38380	23410	21370	18060	9355	62630	50610	20520	15460	24810	20320	67160	53030	53720	66960	43980	24630	19680	20820	23500	14440	22740	24180	7303	16520	21110	15220	30630	15820	23200	38300	68280	74740	20820	27450	58080	18690	29180	50370	17010	16510	25930	18730	32470	19950	15950	33460
2021-12-26	27990	28370	9533	16230	22880	14170	27160	25410	9490	43540	25770	24560	23280	35340	12160	45050	72210	51710	12800	38830	28270	21830	32720	34580	67440	49940	208700	20490	34830	27300	13850	14990	57300	12080	73650	21700	102700	26880	19440	59670	16780	28250	50180	90730	19190	63920	18750	20080	21510	19590	40890	35190	38740	19890	40260	18790	25010	70890	18840	30890	18550	25840	53320	7712	35490	35750	17450	26490	67050	63540	17840	17770	17050	22660	76400	8799	35690	1805	16230	11730	15250	78970	11800	100900	64080	8989	21870	73290	28290	20850	24820	14920	16720	48060	10500	34010	61770	51840	17900	61110	18010	25360	70140	21660	12410	19910	19410	18090	28430	20280	14830	15380	17370	56560	22690	30970	16570	24140	7693	27710	60260	27040	15900	21550	20550	26490	17830	15480	22530	54010	26150	17690	11730	14380	39190	23830	115700	21970	14320	22220	15690	52830	25520	18140	53200	27720	13470	37270	17040	49430	18540	27310	45430	16900	19300	15700	20610	55910	25180	21100	16300	21870	57960	20860	21230	55630	28360	17470	12180	22810	9609	21430	42550	25500	18950	20270	50860	33040	78990	34930	67700	24720	157800	74480	15150	55810	19130	18310	25950	103100	44380	31680	10690	9110	118700	21840	54890	8671	17510	13450	40480	11850	13230	26020	31750	24100	29580	14540	53050	14880	13440	8748	29290	24290	22330	60740	23770	67130	28910	35320	21280	14310	17850	30030	23620	18490	67990	28480	10180	33870	41510	12120	19050	43470	54490	21300	69180	24820	12110	49410	1091	27430	17020	18670	18060	39400	45190	39570	17290	30170	30080	62910	26800	16070	29890	33610	48580	12840	38170	7932	47660	16700	15210	12970	53600	20480	15300	23570	18310	6173	7183	58740	65380	16760	12380	19130	55610	16080	21660	105000	1207	48520	30070	41260	20090	15970	13560	24620	19850	50380	11910	14290	23530	14020	59280	18640	16440	22870	21720	23060	20170	30570	45880	36400	60030	19810	29440	38320	24010	17210	16650	13520	59230	39240	49760	19810	16580	54310	16740	40410	26640	46130	36660	47460	15840	16800	18620	33520	24660	21450	13930	23150	18330	38780	23670	21470	18120	9362	63330	50950	20690	15590	24930	20480	67320	53230	54310	67860	44220	24790	19920	21000	23600	14510	22990	24330	7343	16550	21190	15290	30710	15890	23330	38700	68540	75190	21010	27750	58290	18800	29440	50550	17100	16600	26020	18830	32760	20010	16020	33640
2021-12-27	28050	28490	9567	16280	23010	14210	27300	25600	9521	43770	25910	24650	23460	35550	12240	45480	72880	51870	12850	39170	28430	21890	32920	34760	67830	50320	209400	20610	34940	27360	13890	15050	57540	12120	74130	21910	102900	27090	19560	60280	16960	28360	50440	91390	19280	64970	18850	20260	21710	19670	41130	35310	38860	20080	40780	18860	25290	71230	18880	31020	18690	25940	53710	7768	35800	36120	17550	26660	67380	63890	17930	17880	17230	22710	76770	8817	36020	1818	16270	11770	15320	79380	11890	101300	64570	9027	22010	74130	28530	20950	25060	15000	16810	48330	10550	34200	61990	52140	18050	61380	18050	25410	70820	21760	12460	20020	19460	18220	28790	20360	14860	15460	17410	56770	22780	31280	16670	24270	7720	28100	60940	27300	16080	21670	20650	26630	17930	15570	22660	54180	26270	17830	11790	14450	39360	23980	116100	22070	14380	22400	15770	53420	25770	18260	53730	27860	13520	37680	17150	49900	18680	27410	45770	17050	19340	15780	20710	56490	25260	21340	16380	21900	58390	20960	21380	56210	28560	17530	12220	22940	9669	21530	43070	25770	19020	20380	51020	33390	79210	35040	68640	24800	158400	74860	15270	56360	19210	18390	26110	103700	44570	31900	10780	9154	119300	21980	55390	8711	17600	13490	40940	11910	13390	26220	31870	24210	29640	14590	53500	15030	13500	8804	29340	24430	22460	60980	23910	67810	29030	35500	21350	14370	17930	30130	23860	18620	68160	28580	10240	34070	41710	12160	19140	43700	54680	21520	69660	24870	12180	49550	1097	27650	17100	18720	18120	39580	45480	39760	17350	30290	30310	63500	26870	16140	30190	33750	48780	12900	38420	7962	47900	16850	15280	13060	53800	20600	15470	23730	18410	6219	7213	58990	65620	16800	12430	19220	55890	16160	21860	105400	1213	48710	30210	41430	20160	16010	13640	24880	19950	50610	12000	14350	23660	14090	59510	18790	16560	23100	21800	23180	20260	30680	46150	36810	60630	19960	29760	38500	24120	17260	16810	13550	59570	39390	50000	19920	16630	54480	16880	40740	26780	46230	36850	47730	15900	16940	18710	33650	24840	21610	14010	23310	18500	39230	23940	21570	18200	9410	64030	51240	20900	15720	25040	20650	67510	53430	54900	68770	44470	24960	20070	21170	23790	14600	23240	24530	7392	16600	21290	15360	30800	15960	23460	39110	68860	75640	21150	28050	58510	18960	29690	50720	17190	16690	26060	18910	33080	20070	16080	33830

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-12-21 to 2021-12-27

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-12-20	27330	27716	9051	15911	22125	13874	26359	24113	9402	42102	24955	23827	22548	33895	11711	41395	67636	51009	12538	36965	26869	21464	31493	33194	65300	46352	203164	19830	34632	26942	13576	14617	55822	11668	71096	20362	101505	25642	18441	56606	15619	27544	47687	86677	17923	57564	18078	18812	20313	19399	38993	34521	37975	18791	37594	18458	23398	67393	18634	30295	17706	25240	50116	7378	34415	33562	17000	25571	64622	61203	17313	17134	16155	22462	74308	8744	33665	1710	15806	11508	14931	76606	11212	98531	60899	8771	21001	68143	26762	20541	23020	14488	16138	46449	10107	32863	60473	50148	16998	59585	17523	24822	65156	21065	12173	19310	19222	17038	26222	19829	14689	14966	17228	55309	22202	29025	16042	23212	7538	25318	56147	25645	14663	20542	19900	25611	17230	14909	21747	53265	25426	16891	11363	13967	38285	22783	113566	21202	13882	21125	15154	49487	23719	17204	50304	26898	13240	34769	16465	46251	17695	26829	43292	16075	19114	15188	19966	51719	24527	19604	15799	21290	54609	20282	20291	52039	27415	17235	11905	21523	9168	20772	39457	23809	18545	19874	49823	31195	77673	34488	62756	24170	153408	72503	14502	51905	18713	17929	25054	100009	42997	30289	10114	8880	114715	20986	52202	8452	16925	13259	37943	11383	12245	24431	31108	23436	29243	14395	50403	13868	13129	8410	29021	23535	21432	59256	22987	63739	28310	34177	21088	13527	17307	29255	21514	17792	67471	27865	9776	32649	40839	11856	18526	42138	53547	20935	66198	24624	11694	48181	1069	25871	16507	18338	17804	38763	43497	38383	16788	29423	28993	59338	26356	15665	27979	32837	47329	12437	34056	7731	46399	15731	14764	12521	52403	19725	14291	22474	17638	5852	7049	55430	64874	16521	12126	18639	54066	15612	20654	101702	1181	47156	29619	40060	19730	15812	12810	23062	19215	49076	11301	13971	22863	13611	56937	17746	15688	21656	21153	22393	19775	29957	43876	33971	55337	18721	27298	37502	23428	16913	15629	13420	57246	38329	48750	19187	16380	53694	15747	39005	25944	45728	35526	45925	15437	15632	18021	32675	23561	20465	13421	22137	17176	36040	22095	20738	17757	9181	59724	48570	19506	14581	24345	19547	66268	52108	51146	63152	42820	23778	18406	19807	22860	14023	21467	23074	7026	16448	20641	14911	30449	15611	22648	36051	66855	72370	19497	25885	57048	17948	27832	49645	16557	16146	25289	18305	30844	19679	15661	32442
2021-12-21	27440	27830	9112	15970	22250	13910	26540	24320	9446	42350	25100	23950	22720	34180	11800	41940	68320	51170	12590	37280	27120	21530	31710	33400	65730	46910	204000	19950	34740	27020	13610	14690	56060	11730	71560	20560	101800	25870	18560	57170	15800	27660	48170	87340	18080	58350	18180	19010	20510	19470	39230	34630	38100	19000	38100	18530	23600	67910	18690	30410	17870	25360	50550	7435	34630	33920	17100	25740	65070	61560	17400	17270	16330	22590	74870	8776	34010	1721	15870	11560	15000	77020	11310	98900	61250	8821	21170	69180	27080	20610	23280	14570	16210	46720	10170	33060	60690	50480	17110	59850	17590	24900	65900	21150	12250	19410	19320	17210	26580	19920	14760	15050	17300	55520	22290	29300	16150	23390	7564	25660	56820	25890	14870	20700	20000	25750	17340	15000	21860	53510	25540	17020	11420	14020	38450	22960	114100	21320	13950	21310	15230	50130	24010	17280	50820	27000	13300	35320	16570	46870	17850	26960	43710	16220	19160	15260	20080	52370	24650	19800	15880	21390	55110	20410	20470	52530	27600	17300	11950	21720	9244	20870	40120	24130	18640	19980	50000	31560	77920	34640	63800	24290	154100	72850	14640	52740	18810	18020	25240	100600	43240	30570	10210	8933	115500	21090	52690	8498	17020	13300	38450	11440	12360	24660	31240	23550	29320	14480	50820	14040	13210	8452	29100	23720	21580	59520	23120	64490	28430	34390	21180	13600	17400	29330	21780	17920	67710	27970	9850	32840	41020	11910	18640	42360	53790	21090	66700	24730	11770	48360	1074	26100	16600	18400	17870	38930	43800	38600	16870	29540	29190	59890	26440	15730	28310	33020	47530	12490	34700	7768	46630	15890	14840	12610	52630	19840	14430	22680	17770	5890	7087	55840	65070	16560	12170	18720	54320	15690	20870	102200	1187	47370	29750	40260	19820	15890	12920	23330	19320	49320	11390	14040	23020	13670	57290	17920	15810	21880	21280	22520	19870	30060	44210	34340	56270	18900	27640	37670	23560	16970	15800	13480	57600	38490	48970	19310	16480	53850	15890	39560	26120	45900	35710	46210	15510	15800	18130	32820	23730	20630	13500	22280	17360	36480	22320	20840	17820	9225	60330	48930	19700	14760	24480	19760	66460	52320	51720	64230	43110	23940	18580	20000	23030	14110	21720	23300	7081	16540	20740	14990	30650	15750	22800	36610	67140	72820	19730	26170	57320	18140	28100	49820	16660	16270	25390	18400	31110	19750	15740	32620
2021-12-22	27570	27960	9170	16010	22340	13970	26690	24500	9507	42550	25230	24030	22850	34460	11870	42400	69000	51310	12630	37580	27330	21590	31910	33610	66010	47390	204900	20040	34840	27070	13650	14760	56290	11800	72020	20740	102000	26050	18680	57740	15960	27790	48560	87990	18210	59190	18280	19180	20670	19520	39480	34750	38230	19230	38600	18590	23760	68380	18720	30510	18000	25460	50940	7476	34840	34180	17190	25880	65530	61920	17470	17390	16490	22690	75590	8816	34330	1738	15950	11610	15070	77440	11400	99300	61640	8867	21330	70080	27340	20670	23530	14650	16300	46970	10220	33210	60910	50800	17220	60090	17690	24990	66620	21280	12330	19510	19450	17360	26860	20000	14870	15150	17410	55740	22380	29570	16250	23560	7588	25990	57410	26140	15030	20830	20110	25920	17450	15070	21940	53820	25670	17140	11480	14070	38570	23090	114800	21440	14020	21460	15310	50750	24280	17380	51320	27080	13340	35830	16660	47470	17950	27060	44070	16340	19190	15340	20180	52920	24780	19990	15950	21500	55600	20530	20590	52960	27810	17340	12010	21900	9327	20980	40800	24430	18700	20060	50180	31910	78190	34730	64870	24370	154900	73170	14750	53560	18890	18090	25370	101100	43450	30800	10290	8980	116400	21180	53040	8533	17120	13340	38910	11490	12480	24820	31340	23650	29380	14590	51240	14180	13300	8523	29180	23880	21700	59730	23250	65150	28540	34580	21330	13670	17470	29440	22010	18030	68020	28070	9930	33020	41170	11960	18750	42570	53970	21260	67220	24830	11820	48550	1080	26330	16680	18440	17970	39090	44110	38820	16960	29650	29400	60350	26510	15800	28610	33210	47730	12550	35240	7802	46860	16020	14890	12700	52870	19960	14560	22860	17870	5923	7114	56240	65270	16600	12220	18810	54540	15760	21050	102600	1193	47610	29880	40460	19880	15970	13030	23570	19420	49540	11500	14110	23190	13740	57690	18070	15960	22120	21380	22640	19940	30130	44530	34630	57230	19020	27960	37810	23670	17030	15930	13540	57930	38610	49160	19440	16580	53960	16030	40000	26250	46100	35870	46450	15580	15950	18220	32970	23870	20780	13590	22400	17520	36900	22510	20950	17890	9258	61030	49290	19890	14930	24600	19970	66660	52500	52330	65310	43370	24090	18740	20160	23200	14190	21940	23510	7137	16630	20830	15070	30930	15880	22930	37100	67390	73240	19930	26430	57640	18310	28340	49990	16770	16390	25520	18490	31370	19800	15810	32820
2021-12-23	27690	28090	9227	16050	22430	14020	26830	24660	9567	42750	25370	24110	23000	34700	11950	42870	69640	51430	12670	37870	27530	21650	32110	33800	66260	47870	205800	20130	34940	27130	13700	14820	56540	11870	72430	20930	102300	26220	18790	58290	16130	27910	48900	88570	18340	60010	18370	19350	20840	19560	39720	34860	38340	19450	39140	18660	23920	68870	18770	30620	18110	25560	51320	7518	35040	34450	17280	26020	65970	62270	17550	17490	16660	22780	76230	8854	34640	1754	16040	11640	15140	77810	11490	99600	62020	8906	21480	70970	27590	20730	23790	14730	16390	47220	10270	33360	61100	51090	17340	60330	17780	25090	67330	21400	12400	19610	19560	17480	27150	20080	14980	15240	17530	55940	22470	29840	16330	23700	7614	26310	58020	26400	15190	20970	20210	26080	17560	15140	22030	54100	25810	17250	11540	14110	38680	23220	115400	21560	14080	21600	15380	51360	24530	17470	51900	27170	13380	36350	16740	48060	18070	27160	44430	16460	19230	15420	20270	53450	24880	20170	16020	21610	56040	20640	20720	53410	27980	17400	12060	22070	9401	21090	41460	24720	18780	20160	50340	32260	78430	34830	65900	24460	155600	73510	14870	54380	18970	18170	25500	101500	43660	31050	10370	9034	117100	21260	53420	8570	17220	13370	39380	11540	12590	25010	31450	23750	29440	14680	51640	14320	13380	8587	29270	24030	21810	59930	23370	65990	28660	34760	21460	13740	17550	29530	22230	18120	68320	28180	10000	33200	41310	12010	18840	42770	54150	21420	67740	24930	11870	48760	1086	26550	16760	18480	18060	39240	44410	39010	17030	29760	29600	60830	26590	15870	28880	33410	47930	12600	35770	7834	47070	16140	14940	12780	53070	20070	14680	23030	17970	5957	7142	56620	65460	16640	12260	18890	54750	15840	21240	103100	1200	47840	30000	40650	19960	16060	13130	23800	19520	49760	11590	14170	23350	13790	58110	18200	16080	22340	21470	22760	19990	30210	44870	34940	57870	19150	28260	37930	23770	17090	16050	13610	58260	38730	49340	19560	16680	54090	16160	40460	26390	46290	36020	46680	15640	16110	18310	33110	24010	20930	13670	22520	17680	37340	22690	21050	17960	9286	61740	49640	20070	15080	24720	20150	66820	52680	52930	66370	43640	24230	18890	20320	23360	14260	22160	23710	7190	16720	20910	15140	31180	15990	23070	37570	67620	73660	20100	26670	57920	18460	28590	50150	16860	16510	25650	18600	31640	19860	15880	33010
2021-12-24	27810	28220	9283	16090	22520	14060	26960	24830	9630	42950	25500	24180	23150	34930	12030	43300	70230	51550	12700	38170	27740	21710	32290	34000	66520	48280	206700	20230	35020	27190	13740	14870	56760	11930	72830	21100	102500	26390	18910	58870	16290	28020	49210	89190	18460	60830	18440	19510	21010	19610	39930	34980	38440	19660	39710	18730	24090	69310	18800	30700	18220	25660	51670	7561	35210	34680	17380	26160	66370	62600	17630	17600	16820	22860	76790	8894	34950	1768	16120	11680	15200	78140	11580	99900	62400	8947	21610	71860	27830	20800	24030	14810	16480	47470	10310	33520	61250	51370	17440	60560	17850	25160	68000	21510	12480	19690	19660	17580	27400	20160	15070	15300	17620	56130	22570	30110	16400	23840	7641	26630	58620	26640	15340	21110	20310	26210	17670	15210	22120	54350	25940	17370	11600	14160	38790	23330	115900	21670	14150	21750	15460	51960	24750	17560	52470	27260	13420	36830	16820	48640	18180	27260	44730	16590	19260	15490	20360	53910	24990	20350	16090	21710	56470	20740	20850	53840	28160	17440	12110	22190	9469	21200	42120	25020	18850	20240	50480	32610	78640	34940	66970	24540	156200	73800	14990	55160	19060	18250	25620	102000	43850	31240	10440	9080	117800	21350	53750	8609	17320	13410	39840	11590	12700	25190	31560	23840	29500	14770	52030	14440	13460	8650	29340	24190	21920	60140	23490	66460	28780	34930	21600	13800	17630	29620	22440	18210	68610	28290	10070	33380	41440	12060	18910	42950	54330	21590	68220	25030	11920	48950	1094	26770	16840	18520	18160	39350	44680	39190	17110	29860	29790	61320	26660	15940	29140	33600	48120	12650	36220	7865	47250	16270	14990	12840	53230	20190	14810	23180	18070	5987	7171	56980	65600	16680	12310	18970	54980	15910	21430	103500	1207	48050	30100	40830	20030	16140	13220	24010	19620	49980	11690	14240	23460	13850	58440	18340	16210	22570	21550	22870	20050	30280	45180	35240	58600	19270	28500	38060	23890	17140	16180	13680	58580	38850	49500	19660	16780	54210	16290	40910	26530	46460	36190	46890	15700	16250	18390	33230	24160	21080	13750	22630	17830	37740	22870	21140	18020	9319	62410	49960	20250	15220	24850	20320	66960	52860	53500	67360	43870	24370	19040	20470	23500	14340	22380	23890	7240	16800	20970	15220	31400	16090	23180	38060	67820	74070	20280	26910	58170	18600	28830	50300	16950	16630	25750	18690	31880	19910	15950	33200
2021-12-25	27890	28320	9335	16140	22610	14100	27090	24990	9665	43150	25620	24250	23280	35140	12110	43590	70700	51670	12740	38460	27900	21770	32460	34190	66790	48680	207500	20320	35110	27260	13780	14930	56950	11990	73190	21230	102700	26520	19030	59410	16430	28140	49500	89810	18590	61650	18510	19650	21150	19650	40130	35100	38540	19860	40230	18790	24260	69680	18830	30770	18320	25750	52020	7603	35380	34870	17490	26290	66760	62950	17710	17700	16980	22930	77240	8929	35260	1783	16190	11710	15260	78470	11660	100100	62750	8981	21740	72700	28060	20850	24290	14880	16570	47720	10360	33660	61380	51640	17550	60770	17910	25230	68560	21610	12550	19770	19760	17690	27640	20240	15150	15360	17700	56290	22650	30370	16450	23960	7668	26940	59240	26880	15480	21190	20420	26340	17770	15260	22200	54580	26050	17480	11660	14200	38900	23450	116400	21770	14210	21890	15530	52570	24940	17640	53010	27350	13470	37280	16900	49200	18300	27320	45000	16690	19300	15560	20460	54330	25080	20530	16150	21780	56890	20840	20950	54230	28350	17480	12140	22320	9528	21300	42730	25310	18920	20300	50580	32960	78830	35030	67950	24580	156800	74040	15090	55930	19140	18330	25750	102500	44040	31420	10520	9109	118400	21440	54080	8647	17420	13430	40310	11640	12810	25360	31670	23930	29560	14850	52420	14560	13520	8707	29420	24340	22010	60350	23610	67060	28900	35100	21710	13860	17710	29710	22640	18300	68840	28390	10120	33550	41540	12100	18970	43140	54490	21750	68690	25110	11980	49130	1102	26990	16920	18550	18240	39440	44950	39360	17170	29950	29970	61800	26740	16010	29380	33760	48270	12710	36580	7896	47400	16410	15040	12900	53390	20310	14930	23330	18140	6018	7197	57280	65700	16720	12360	19060	55180	15990	21620	103900	1214	48240	30210	41010	20090	16210	13320	24180	19710	50200	11780	14310	23560	13910	58790	18460	16330	22790	21630	22980	20100	30360	45450	35470	59180	19390	28770	38160	24000	17200	16310	13750	58910	38960	49610	19760	16870	54320	16380	41320	26660	46630	36350	47110	15760	16390	18460	33340	24290	21220	13840	22720	17980	38060	23050	21230	18070	9350	63030	50220	20430	15350	24940	20480	67060	53020	54080	68420	44080	24510	19190	20610	23590	14410	22600	24040	7287	16880	21010	15280	31600	16190	23250	38560	68020	74500	20410	27140	58390	18680	29040	50440	17020	16730	25850	18740	32150	19960	16020	33390
2021-12-26	27980	28420	9386	16180	22690	14150	27230	25150	9719	43330	25730	24310	23410	35360	12190	43920	71240	51790	12780	38760	28030	21830	32620	34380	67040	49120	208300	20400	35180	27320	13820	14980	57180	12040	73550	21390	102900	26660	19120	59970	16590	28240	49700	90430	18730	62450	18560	19800	21300	19690	40330	35220	38660	20060	40690	18860	24430	70090	18860	30830	18420	25850	52370	7646	35560	35060	17580	26420	67080	63290	17790	17800	17140	23000	77700	8970	35550	1796	16260	11750	15310	78800	11760	100300	63130	9015	21840	73550	28290	20900	24540	14960	16660	47970	10400	33800	61520	51880	17660	61010	17970	25300	69170	21720	12620	19840	19860	17770	27900	20320	15240	15410	17790	56460	22730	30620	16510	24080	7696	27260	59800	27140	15590	21280	20520	26500	17870	15320	22280	54840	26170	17600	11720	14240	39010	23570	116900	21880	14270	22030	15600	53180	25160	17730	53630	27440	13520	37780	16970	49780	18420	27410	45250	16810	19340	15640	20540	54790	25160	20720	16220	21860	57330	20910	21040	54640	28510	17520	12180	22440	9590	21400	43420	25610	18980	20370	50700	33320	79020	35130	68890	24620	157400	74280	15200	56710	19220	18420	25860	102900	44210	31610	10600	9139	119200	21540	54360	8687	17510	13460	40780	11680	12920	25540	31780	24010	29630	14930	52810	14670	13580	8766	29500	24490	22100	60560	23740	67730	29020	35270	21830	13920	17780	29780	22840	18390	69100	28500	10190	33730	41670	12140	19030	43330	54660	21920	69200	25210	12030	49310	1110	27220	17010	18570	18310	39530	45220	39520	17220	30050	30180	62300	26810	16080	29610	33930	48430	12760	36850	7926	47570	16540	15080	12950	53550	20420	15030	23480	18220	6048	7226	57620	65830	16760	12410	19140	55400	16060	21820	104400	1222	48440	30320	41180	20150	16280	13410	24360	19790	50430	11870	14380	23680	13970	59100	18550	16450	23010	21700	23080	20140	30440	45700	35740	59840	19500	29050	38280	24110	17260	16430	13820	59250	39080	49730	19840	16960	54430	16500	41750	26800	46800	36520	47300	15810	16530	18530	33460	24430	21370	13920	22810	18130	38440	23220	21310	18120	9374	63680	50510	20610	15490	25030	20640	67150	53200	54660	69480	44300	24640	19350	20760	23700	14480	22830	24210	7334	16960	21060	15350	31820	16290	23330	39050	68200	74920	20540	27380	58640	18800	29270	50550	17100	16850	25950	18810	32400	20000	16090	33580
2021-12-27	28110	28560	9430	16230	22780	14190	27370	25310	9779	43540	25870	24370	23550	35620	12270	44250	71860	51920	12820	39070	28190	21900	32810	34570	67230	49590	209100	20500	35280	27390	13860	15040	57430	12100	73990	21570	103200	26820	19230	60540	16760	28360	50010	91040	18830	63320	18650	19960	21480	19750	40560	35340	38780	20260	41300	18930	24590	70490	18900	30940	18530	25960	52730	7690	35760	35300	17680	26580	67440	63650	17870	17910	17300	23090	78290	9012	35880	1810	16330	11790	15370	79200	11850	100700	63510	9052	21970	74450	28540	20980	24790	15040	16750	48230	10440	33960	61700	52200	17770	61270	18040	25370	69840	21840	12710	19940	19970	17860	28190	20410	15340	15480	17900	56650	22820	30910	16610	24200	7724	27590	60350	27380	15710	21370	20630	26650	17990	15380	22380	55140	26320	17710	11780	14300	39140	23680	117400	21990	14320	22180	15680	53790	25390	17810	54280	27530	13570	38290	17050	50350	18540	27520	45580	16930	19370	15720	20630	55280	25260	20910	16290	21950	57780	21000	21160	55080	28700	17570	12230	22580	9660	21510	44110	25920	19050	20460	50850	33680	79240	35240	70000	24690	158000	74610	15330	57460	19300	18500	25970	103400	44400	31840	10680	9188	119900	21630	54690	8727	17610	13490	41260	11730	13030	25710	31890	24110	29690	15030	53210	14800	13650	8835	29570	24650	22190	60780	23870	68530	29150	35440	21980	13970	17860	29870	23030	18490	69430	28610	10260	33900	41830	12190	19120	43540	54850	22110	69710	25310	12090	49490	1118	27430	17090	18610	18410	39670	45530	39700	17300	30160	30410	62800	26890	16150	29880	34120	48610	12820	37090	7956	47760	16670	15140	13040	53740	20540	15170	23630	18310	6078	7257	57940	66020	16790	12460	19220	55630	16140	22010	104800	1230	48660	30450	41370	20230	16360	13500	24550	19890	50660	11960	14440	23810	14030	59470	18680	16590	23240	21780	23210	20210	30520	46000	36050	60820	19610	29340	38430	24230	17320	16560	13890	59610	39210	49910	19950	17060	54550	16630	42220	26960	46980	36680	47520	15880	16690	18610	33610	24580	21510	14000	22940	18300	38860	23420	21400	18180	9422	64340	50800	20790	15640	25140	20830	67270	53390	55290	70530	44550	24780	19490	20910	23860	14570	23060	24410	7382	17050	21120	15430	32060	16420	23480	39540	68420	75340	20700	27620	58940	18950	29520	50700	17200	16970	26050	18900	32640	20060	16160	33760

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-12-20 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-12-20