COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-12-26

	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	2021-09-08	2021-09-07	2021-12-22	--	--	2021-11-11	2021-12-21	2021-12-22	2021-12-15	2021-12-22	2021-11-25	--	2021-12-21	--	2021-12-22	--	2021-12-22	--	--	--	2021-12-22	2021-12-21	--	--	2021-12-22	--	--	--	--	--	2021-10-16	--	--	2021-12-23	2021-12-23	--	--	--	--	2021-12-23	2021-12-23	2021-12-23	2021-12-21	--	--	2021-12-21	--	--	--	--	--	2021-12-23	--	2021-12-21	2021-12-22	--	2021-12-21	2021-12-23	--	--	--	2021-12-22	--	2021-12-22	--	--	--	--	2021-12-23	--	--	2021-12-22	--	--	2021-12-20	2021-12-17	2021-12-21	2021-11-03	2021-12-23	--	--	2021-11-29	--	2021-07-14	--	2021-12-23	--	--	--	2021-10-14	2021-12-22	--	2021-12-23	2021-12-23	--	2021-12-22	--	2021-12-22	--	--	2021-11-11	2021-09-05	2021-12-23	2021-09-06	--	--	2021-08-26	--	2021-12-22	--	2021-12-18	--	2021-08-30	--	--	2021-12-21	2021-12-23	2021-12-23	--	2021-12-23	--	--	2021-12-23	--	--	2021-12-13	--	--	2021-08-21	2021-09-06	--	--	2021-10-19	--	2021-10-23	2021-12-22	2021-08-31	--	2021-10-19	--	2021-12-21	2021-12-20	--	2021-12-22	2021-12-15	--	--	2021-12-20	--	2021-12-22	--	--	2021-12-23	--	2021-07-13	2021-11-25	--	--	--	--	--	2021-11-10	--	--	--	2021-12-21	--	--	2021-08-31	2021-12-21	2021-12-23	--	2021-12-22	2021-12-20	--	--	--	2021-12-21	--	--	2021-12-21	2021-12-22	--	--	2021-12-22	2021-12-21	--	2021-12-21	2021-12-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	2021-12-23	--	--	2021-10-19	2021-12-23	2021-12-22	2021-11-25	2021-12-23	2021-12-23	2021-12-22	2021-12-21	2021-07-15	2021-12-19	--	--	2021-12-22	2021-11-09	2021-12-22	2021-12-23	--	--	--	--	2021-12-23	2021-12-21	2021-12-15	2021-11-25	--	2021-07-11	2021-12-21	--	2021-08-30	--	2021-12-22	--	--	2021-12-23	--	2021-12-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	2021-10-24	2021-12-23	2021-12-22	--	2021-11-09	2021-12-22	2021-12-06	2021-12-23	2021-12-21	--	--	--	2021-10-17	--	--	2021-08-31	2021-12-22	--	2021-12-21	2021-11-24	--	--	--	2021-12-23	--	2021-12-22	2021-12-23	2021-12-22	--	--	--	2021-12-23	2021-12-22	--	2021-12-21	--	--	--	2021-12-23	--	2021-11-17	--	2021-12-23	--	2021-10-15	2021-08-26	2021-12-23	--	--	--	2021-12-01	2021-12-23	--	--	2021-12-15	2021-12-22	2021-12-23	2021-12-22	--	2021-10-18	--	2021-07-05	--	--	2021-12-22	2021-12-22	2021-12-22	--	--	2021-12-23	2021-12-22	2021-12-21	--	2021-07-14	--	--	2021-10-15	2021-07-13	2021-12-23	--	--	2021-12-23	--	--	--	--	2021-11-25	--	2021-12-23	--	2021-10-19	--	--	--	--	2021-11-24	--	2021-11-23	2021-12-21	2021-12-21	2021-12-23	--	2021-12-23	--	--	--	--	2021-12-21	--	--	--	2021-12-22	--	--	2021-12-21	--	2021-12-02	2021-09-02	2021-12-22	--	2021-12-17	2021-12-21	--	2021-12-21	--	--	2021-12-22	--	2021-12-23	2021-12-23	--	--	--	--	2021-12-22	--	--	--	--	--
Peak daily increment	179	224	97			89	238	259	66	311	160		219		158		1007				335	163			715						126			69	630					915	237	281	701			1129						276		260	807		288	800				184		161					998			154			742	51	475	21	198			458		605		82				93	348		186	507		356		421			117	174	895	133			183		448		115		157			407	132	256		432			259			178			171	421			104		156	297	941		107		137	1202		201	2591			771		941			613		146	101						152				745			136	273	100		976	575				503			1561	316			178	1270		166	292							193			164	155	724	89	181	338	200	162	274	120			125	78	234	244					294	270	153	126		256	306		621		120			94		319							22	309	217		98	285	317	307	146				106			289	469		593	41				120		204	216	268				921	515		118				302		14		221		202	118	149				104	113			422	248	144	265		178		303			1354	265	444			144	208	149		339			201	428	202			416					156		249		150					136		107	1149	732	237		261					1566				235			312		58	158	283		264	175		744			260		716	224					225
Days since peak	109	110	4			45	5	4	11	4	31		5		4		4				4	5			4						71			3	3					3	3	3	5			5						3		5	4		5	3				4		4					3			4			6	9	5	53	3			27		165		3				73	4		3	3		4		4			45	112	3	111			122		4		8		118			5	3	3		3			3			13			127	111			68		64	4	117		68		5	6		4	11			6		4			3		166	31						46				5			117	5	3		4	6				5			5	4			4	5		5	5							3			68	3	4	31	3	3	4	5	164	7			4	47	4	3					3	5	11	31		168	5		118		4			3		3							63	3	4		47	4	20	3	5				70			117	4		5	32				3		4	3	4				3	4		5				3		39		3		72	122	3				25	3			11	4	3	4		69		174			4	4	4			3	4	5		165			72	166	3			3					31		3		68					32		33	5	5	3		3					5				4			5		24	115	4		9	5		5			4		3	3					4
Last total	27815	28216	9637	16741	23395	14104	27079	24910	9570	42898	25984	25091	23770	35801	12594	44765	73259	53263	13615	39804	28717	22431	33251	35214	67259	50764	213122	21050	36097	28268	13966	15326	59237	12090	74727	21950	104879	27441	19496	61567	16841	28809	51583	92557	19438	63380	19189	20325	21756	20279	41627	35861	39986	20113	41167	19570	24928	71048	19372	31373	18897	25811	53578	8026	36467	36116	18062	27171	69597	65390	18502	18054	17260	24114	76285	8903	36040	1743	16858	12426	15679	79706	11956	101964	64519	9289	22500	74905	28953	21263	24866	15268	17070	49161	10819	33703	63224	52734	18037	62591	17771	25179	70151	21429	12901	20256	19640	18098	28519	20651	14989	15817	17642	58112	23187	31232	16889	24651	7862	27369	61019	27737	15930	21884	20802	26049	18182	15704	22263	54202	26738	17870	11838	14850	39791	24439	115911	22276	14546	22476	15947	54735	25296	18318	55906	28559	13985	37966	17463	51044	19089	28337	46706	17156	19669	15808	21034	56205	25746	21129	16766	21661	58614	21439	21708	55882	29364	18015	12139	23037	9738	21514	43527	26067	19488	20947	51915	33802	81408	36491	69326	26017	162080	75862	15547	57909	19851	18912	25849	106164	45168	32363	10911	9374	123383	22035	55868	8959	17833	13866	41535	11822	13168	26318	31746	23951	30074	14688	53678	14845	13732	8664	30012	24975	22711	61715	24053	68857	29669	34973	21486	13997	18365	30673	23142	18913	68823	29120	10448	34338	42832	12443	19547	43955	56081	22544	69910	25835	12285	51099	1118	27426	17389	19046	18132	40399	45478	40158	17534	30974	30694	63692	27206	16442	30270	33465	49458	13273	36903	8041	49041	17097	15581	13187	55305	20907	15437	23985	18650	6269	7543	59889	67656	17227	12489	19453	57470	16620	22124	107479	1220	49719	30955	42469	20782	16136	13638	24822	20375	51734	11831	14546	24140	14582	58226	19241	16533	23221	22706	23397	20894	31135	46297	36595	61658	20257	29465	39936	24951	17715	16739	13792	62038	40044	50956	20478	17237	55534	16858	42596	27319	47684	37636	49196	16205	16873	18765	34151	24817	21803	14179	23419	18430	39261	23825	21463	18557	9495	64991	52419	20777	15954	25539	20940	69466	54495	55556	69406	45746	25366	19664	21055	24365	14644	23052	24548	7301	16788	22147	15702	31199	16625	23937	39468	71437	76572	20845	27786	60952	19180	29934	52016	17564	17235	26393	19373	32744	20731	16397	34996
Last daily increment	0	0	54	157	179	0	0	0	0	0	125	141	153	249	119	360	616	363	166	365	241	165	279	261	0	437	1220	163	216	240	1	87	425	52	256	192	467	251	148	571	142	0	343	792	204	567	149	156	168	132	285	0	254	139	367	170	202	1	166	0	154	0	453	0	292	310	147	200	534	627	203	84	140	222	0	0	291	0	1	137	107	563	73	544	402	71	186	558	299	93	193	108	1	330	96	0	434	204	145	442	0	0	577	0	119	141	0	113	237	145	0	106	0	471	106	248	111	191	66	169	524	240	128	177	130	0	148	142	0	0	0	123	46	144	248	194	0	140	109	190	96	524	176	0	422	252	124	312	155	409	157	194	428	143	93	84	140	503	200	179	116	0	503	164	175	430	255	110	0	168	0	56	383	168	156	203	399	290	547	302	483	261	1165	452	123	503	142	149	0	819	298	232	69	67	852	115	425	70	99	0	366	85	100	244	0	0	148	0	401	101	0	0	0	197	168	408	161	586	0	0	0	72	173	191	193	169	0	183	84	244	370	59	135	220	484	203	422	170	77	330	0	125	0	102	0	182	314	193	0	195	182	465	165	117	251	0	2	112	208	38	343	183	108	72	455	140	145	184	114	55	70	437	362	96	0	144	456	140	141	826	0	400	198	290	177	0	79	210	136	397	97	72	170	123	0	208	97	188	197	152	179	227	307	262	379	183	212	356	196	94	131	0	499	282	318	182	131	348	128	395	158	0	339	345	123	110	131	242	154	175	103	233	148	379	191	119	1	54	475	374	152	165	1	183	488	373	444	510	414	186	143	135	164	80	162	205	47	0	203	118	0	123	151	279	604	613	185	201	525	153	209	394	145	100	3	152	209	216	108	348
Last week	307	293	543	789	1194	120	755	836	89	853	987	1229	1177	1841	837	3160	5045	2070	1013	2698	1736	873	1685	1913	2096	4134	8768	1184	1380	1287	348	673	3064	395	3480	1487	3089	1733	994	4509	1187	1113	3540	5561	1414	5380	1019	1411	1392	859	2397	1197	1855	1236	3101	1021	1456	3308	700	1001	1159	602	3349	596	1996	2460	974	1509	4479	3865	1115	870	1059	1545	1062	92	2166	25	883	883	722	3066	687	3379	3338	477	1424	6383	2146	707	1736	740	802	2539	664	914	2568	2445	999	2882	129	201	4612	235	694	916	243	990	2202	780	131	832	226	2588	891	1991	787	1406	308	1945	4435	1915	1180	1264	891	247	917	754	536	567	1098	957	442	844	1486	1604	1409	946	647	1321	721	4606	1497	928	4107	1524	711	2764	955	4102	1311	1390	3183	1032	543	591	1020	4233	1114	1463	880	170	3802	1112	1360	3549	1861	751	147	1386	481	688	3494	1961	913	1041	1887	2420	3461	1929	5738	1728	7976	3268	986	5297	1037	962	841	5848	2067	1976	755	425	7490	1002	3553	486	861	564	3319	433	855	1820	684	526	814	161	3149	944	505	122	859	1345	1227	2477	1018	4671	1265	865	186	439	995	1281	1550	1058	827	1158	610	1617	1963	544	976	1725	2504	1470	3627	1139	583	2551	22	1464	776	682	195	1583	1959	1652	602	1460	1554	4093	841	709	2174	379	1972	774	2632	307	2486	1337	774	639	2645	1117	1082	1473	986	404	465	3903	2569	626	201	779	3180	928	1360	5218	36	2360	1244	2182	1004	171	775	1694	1069	2551	514	547	1230	898	802	1390	807	1433	1480	963	1068	1162	2331	2521	5265	1478	2079	2346	1454	757	1080	212	4268	1698	2117	1197	780	1822	1064	3413	1331	1691	2017	3103	698	1170	730	1386	1153	1271	713	1256	1180	3018	1640	713	751	297	4463	3353	1216	1311	1091	1308	2968	2240	3996	5399	2784	1498	1182	1187	1409	608	1497	1373	275	196	1436	766	368	964	1173	2958	4233	3971	1303	1786	3484	1177	1980	2216	925	1017	883	960	1833	1002	700	2317
Previous peak date	2021-06-29	2021-06-29	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	2021-06-29	2021-06-06	--	2021-09-01	--	2021-07-15	2021-10-06	--	--	2021-07-14	--	2021-07-16	2021-07-14	2021-10-04	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	2021-07-14	2021-10-19	--	2021-07-20	2021-07-16	2021-07-15	--	2021-06-14	2021-07-15	--	--	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-20	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-14	2021-07-15	2021-07-16	2021-07-13	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	2021-10-19	2021-10-11	2021-08-05	2021-07-16	2021-10-12	--	--	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-15	2021-10-18	--	2021-07-15	2021-10-18	--	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	2021-10-19	2021-07-15	2021-08-30	2021-09-01	2021-07-15	--	--	2021-07-15	--	2021-08-17	2021-10-18	--	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	2021-07-16	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	2021-07-13	2021-07-16	--	2021-07-14	--	2021-10-11	2021-08-21	2021-07-15	--	--	2021-07-15	2021-08-24	2021-06-29	--	2021-06-28	2021-07-15	2021-08-17	2021-06-29	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	--	2021-08-31	2021-07-15	2021-06-29	2021-07-15	--	--	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-15	--	--	2021-07-15	2021-07-13	2021-07-15	2021-08-18	2021-09-02	2021-07-15	2021-10-13	--	2021-06-29	--	2021-07-15	2021-07-14	2021-07-14	2021-07-12	2021-07-14	2021-06-29	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-16	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	--	--	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-17	2021-07-15	--	--	--	--	2021-08-24	--	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	--	2021-10-14	2021-09-02	--	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	--	--	2021-07-05	2021-06-29	2021-10-04	2021-10-04	--	2021-07-15	--	2021-09-21	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	--	2021-10-12	--	2021-07-15	2021-07-16	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-11	2021-07-16	2021-07-15	2021-07-29	--	--	--	2021-07-16	2021-07-16	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	2021-08-18	2021-07-16	2021-07-13	2021-07-15	2021-09-18	--	2021-08-17	--	2021-07-15	--	--	--	2021-09-02	--	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-12	2021-09-15	--	2021-07-15	2021-07-12	2021-07-15	--	--	--	2021-09-03	2021-08-17	2021-07-15	--	--	--	--	2021-09-29	--	2021-10-18	2021-07-14	2021-07-14	2021-07-14	--	2021-07-14	2021-08-04	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-15	--	2021-06-29	--	--	2021-06-29	--	2021-07-15	--	--	--	2021-10-18	--	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-15	2021-06-29	2021-09-19	2021-06-15	2021-07-16	2021-07-14	2021-07-14	2021-07-15	2021-07-07	2021-07-16	--	2021-09-21	--	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	--	--	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-14	2021-09-01	2021-08-17	--	--	2021-07-16	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-14	2021-08-17	2021-06-29	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-14	2021-07-15	2021-08-17	--	--	2021-10-04	2021-08-31	2021-10-18	2021-07-16	2021-07-14	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	--	--	2021-07-16	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	--	2021-09-21	2021-07-15	--	2021-09-02	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-14	--	2021-07-16	--	2021-07-15	2021-07-14	2021-07-15	2021-10-04	2021-10-18	2021-07-15	2021-07-01	2021-07-15	2021-08-17	2021-07-15	2021-07-14	2021-07-14	2021-08-05	2021-08-18	2021-07-16	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	2021-10-19	2021-08-17	2021-07-15	2021-10-05	--	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-15	2021-07-14	--	2021-07-16	2021-07-14	2021-07-15	2021-10-18	2021-07-16	2021-07-14	2021-07-15	2021-10-11	2021-07-15	2021-10-18	2021-08-17	2021-06-29	2021-07-15	--	2021-09-02	2021-07-15	--	2021-07-15	2021-07-15	2021-10-17	2021-10-19	--	--	--	2021-10-18	--	2021-07-14	2021-07-15	--	--	2021-07-15	2021-07-14	2021-07-16	2021-07-11
Previous peak daily increment	141	86	53	115	116	89	5		97		127	119			57		260	292	70	163	152	144	286		379	197	1015		124	165			217		293	123	489	110		176	68		218	669		258	104	78	97	78	158	249	177	72	159	106			115		128		255	67		169	203		269	245	95	80	125	135	567	69	142			134		708	109		376	53	101	239	127	140	92		86		67	202	400			269	137	188		74	51	139	81	71	122		100	63	66	327			61		22			105	58	118	130	185	72	91		241		80	56	89	274	130	455	95		63	113	163			229		90	156		152	64					54		157	89		90	203		94	90			75	54	161	64		189		153	81	247		317		301	121	707		51	213	84	99				120	49	47	442	96	181	40	71	72		72		101				115		56		31	184		134	384	120				164	84	113					176		291	242	77	102		368	95	264	168		272		143			118		343				145		297		130	135	268	42	140	67	228	88	77	49		127		122	70			253		115	78	123			96	524		185		304	92	41	49		74	345	86			92	470	128	68	77	101	106			198	186	243	70	131		154	77		91	257		248		69		57	145	125	270	329	219	84	68	143	160	116	108	39	103	87	106	119	131	134	61	226	286		67		86	370		154	313	195	144	78	76	94	99	102	193	70	65	94		207	65		138	380	676	149				174		114	66			126	128	79	140
Low between peaks	35	35	16			14	2		28		49				18		128				51	54			179										124					75	22		83			100						115		35	58									24					129			30			157	19	64					227				16				43	39		41			63					56	26		23			17		57		36		17				25						23			80				75			19		75	51	129				40	76			57			54		75						18						59							18	53	30		51								74	42			20	66		43								48			31	30		20		36				31				2	71								41	32										22										51			19		108						49			34	126		61	17				17		58		53				104			35				33						38	17	22				34				120	56	28	35		42					65	30	49			27		45					25		24			134					34		35		15					51		29	72	125								94				30			47		17	23	42		71	24		58			69

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-12-27 to 2022-01-02

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-12-26	27815	28216	9637	16741	23395	14104	27079	24910	9570	42898	25984	25091	23770	35801	12594	44765	73259	53263	13615	39804	28717	22431	33251	35214	67259	50764	213122	21050	36097	28268	13966	15326	59237	12090	74727	21950	104879	27441	19496	61567	16841	28809	51583	92557	19438	63380	19189	20325	21756	20279	41627	35861	39986	20113	41167	19570	24928	71048	19372	31373	18897	25811	53578	8026	36467	36116	18062	27171	69597	65390	18502	18054	17260	24114	76285	8903	36040	1743	16858	12426	15679	79706	11956	101964	64519	9289	22500	74905	28953	21263	24866	15268	17070	49161	10819	33703	63224	52734	18037	62591	17771	25179	70151	21429	12901	20256	19640	18098	28519	20651	14989	15817	17642	58112	23187	31232	16889	24651	7862	27369	61019	27737	15930	21884	20802	26049	18182	15704	22263	54202	26738	17870	11838	14850	39791	24439	115911	22276	14546	22476	15947	54735	25296	18318	55906	28559	13985	37966	17463	51044	19089	28337	46706	17156	19669	15808	21034	56205	25746	21129	16766	21661	58614	21439	21708	55882	29364	18015	12139	23037	9738	21514	43527	26067	19488	20947	51915	33802	81408	36491	69326	26017	162080	75862	15547	57909	19851	18912	25849	106164	45168	32363	10911	9374	123383	22035	55868	8959	17833	13866	41535	11822	13168	26318	31746	23951	30074	14688	53678	14845	13732	8664	30012	24975	22711	61715	24053	68857	29669	34973	21486	13997	18365	30673	23142	18913	68823	29120	10448	34338	42832	12443	19547	43955	56081	22544	69910	25835	12285	51099	1118	27426	17389	19046	18132	40399	45478	40158	17534	30974	30694	63692	27206	16442	30270	33465	49458	13273	36903	8041	49041	17097	15581	13187	55305	20907	15437	23985	18650	6269	7543	59889	67656	17227	12489	19453	57470	16620	22124	107479	1220	49719	30955	42469	20782	16136	13638	24822	20375	51734	11831	14546	24140	14582	58226	19241	16533	23221	22706	23397	20894	31135	46297	36595	61658	20257	29465	39936	24951	17715	16739	13792	62038	40044	50956	20478	17237	55534	16858	42596	27319	47684	37636	49196	16205	16873	18765	34151	24817	21803	14179	23419	18430	39261	23825	21463	18557	9495	64991	52419	20777	15954	25539	20940	69466	54495	55556	69406	45746	25366	19664	21055	24365	14644	23052	24548	7301	16788	22147	15702	31199	16625	23937	39468	71437	76572	20845	27786	60952	19180	29934	52016	17564	17235	26393	19373	32744	20731	16397	34996
2021-12-27	27850	28230	9671	16860	23660	14110	27130	24990	9576	42940	26120	25230	23940	36210	12690	45530	73830	53520	13780	40560	28960	22570	33520	35740	67390	50760	215200	21200	36290	28320	13980	15430	59240	12150	74920	22460	105600	27800	19700	62350	16950	28910	52040	93700	19660	63930	19360	20430	21910	20380	42220	35910	40290	20140	41550	19740	25020	71260	19480	31390	19180	25830	54350	8055	36920	36500	18240	27430	69910	66270	18720	18280	17490	24110	76360	8924	36540	1751	16900	12560	15800	79820	12050	102500	64960	9367	22630	78080	29690	21390	25190	15420	17110	49480	11020	33800	63670	53230	18230	63070	17800	25210	70600	21440	13060	20340	19650	18150	28780	20760	15000	15950	17710	58550	23320	31600	16990	24750	7900	27480	62090	28110	16270	22150	20860	26110	18350	15800	22290	54270	26800	18150	11900	14980	40050	24600	116100	22410	14630	22640	16060	55340	25440	18330	56160	28770	14120	39010	17600	51530	19480	28490	47120	17300	19750	15890	21220	56530	25900	21420	16890	21670	59210	21620	21710	56720	29450	18120	12140	23230	9738	21640	43990	26190	19680	21140	52210	34320	81700	36750	69950	26310	163000	76520	15680	58450	20030	19060	25900	107200	45170	32690	11240	9432	124800	22130	55870	9037	17940	13890	41860	11850	13260	26600	31770	23980	30190	14720	54310	15010	13760	8671	30050	25090	22980	62100	24370	68860	29720	35030	21560	14070	18460	30800	23380	19130	68940	29300	10500	34610	43110	12540	19640	44320	56580	22950	70700	26050	12370	51790	1137	27810	17430	19170	18140	40540	45700	40230	17580	31230	31050	65270	27340	16540	30410	33500	49540	13430	37160	8078	49110	17380	15800	13230	56140	21050	15600	24060	18790	6331	7643	60510	68110	17360	12510	19560	57470	16620	22290	108700	1227	49990	31160	42950	20950	16150	13640	24850	20510	52130	11920	14590	24320	14700	58290	19440	16660	23440	22970	23530	21030	31370	46640	37450	62200	20390	29640	40250	25080	17800	16950	13800	63090	40310	51240	20680	17350	55830	17010	43120	27660	47760	37960	49480	16280	17010	18880	34150	24930	21920	14270	23660	18430	39940	24200	21560	18610	9572	65440	52820	20950	16460	25590	21320	69740	55090	56540	69690	46220	25650	20110	21360	24420	14690	23300	24780	7346	16810	22340	15780	31220	16760	24230	39790	72130	77180	21160	28020	61610	19390	30360	52360	17740	17330	26460	19570	32900	20870	16530	35550
2021-12-28	27880	28240	9676	16970	23900	14110	27160	25030	9576	42950	26240	25370	24010	36590	12770	46540	74450	53910	13960	41260	29200	22720	33780	36210	67450	51160	217300	21350	36510	28490	13990	15550	59340	12230	75170	22820	106300	28180	19900	63050	17100	28980	52510	94800	19960	64570	19540	20840	22100	20540	42640	35950	40560	20260	42000	19880	25020	71480	19580	31590	19450	25830	55100	8092	37410	36890	18410	27680	70320	67030	18950	18450	17690	24300	76520	8948	36910	1784	16950	12650	15930	80190	12160	103000	65400	9467	22850	80310	30320	21510	25490	15570	17150	49790	11190	33830	64120	53690	18420	63510	17820	25220	71130	21440	13220	20440	19660	18280	29050	20880	15000	16070	17770	59150	23460	31880	17040	24750	7900	27690	63540	28410	16560	22450	20960	26140	18540	15900	22300	54390	26920	18380	11950	15120	40270	24840	116300	22490	14640	22800	16160	55900	25570	18380	56220	29030	14270	39710	17740	52000	19820	28790	47540	17340	19840	15960	21390	57290	26100	21710	17030	21670	59880	21760	21850	57350	29670	18260	12160	23410	9755	21770	44660	26350	19880	21330	52520	34810	82200	36980	70740	26680	164100	77150	15750	59130	20210	19220	25920	108100	45340	33000	11480	9439	126100	22250	56200	9113	18010	13910	42270	11900	13330	26890	31780	24030	30320	14750	54850	15180	13790	8671	30100	25100	23210	62440	24640	69970	29780	35110	21580	14170	18660	30970	23620	19370	69040	29490	10510	34890	43460	12640	19780	44630	57140	23450	71490	26260	12460	52480	1145	28140	17490	19270	18140	40690	46020	40430	17610	31460	31410	66340	27460	16660	30410	33550	49630	13610	37450	8089	49430	17640	16000	13300	56730	21230	15790	24180	18920	6396	7739	61050	68530	17490	12550	19600	57640	16710	22460	110000	1240	50430	31370	43580	21100	16150	13680	25000	20710	52500	12030	14610	24560	14840	58400	19630	16790	23570	23200	23600	21180	31560	46970	38160	62830	20580	29790	40520	25280	17870	17100	13810	64070	40560	51620	20870	17390	56070	17160	43640	27940	47810	38290	49800	16410	17200	18980	34330	25050	22070	14320	23920	18520	40720	24520	21670	18630	9654	65850	53220	21140	16890	25620	21580	70180	55510	57380	70230	46660	25900	20400	21600	24630	14770	23520	25020	7413	16840	22510	15900	31230	16820	24480	40230	72880	77800	21430	28270	62170	19580	30650	52710	17940	17430	26560	19720	33140	21040	16670	36080
2021-12-29	27920	28240	9699	17110	24170	14110	27200	25130	9576	42960	26370	25510	24130	36980	12860	47540	75050	54400	14130	41980	29440	22860	34040	36750	67530	51630	219300	21490	36780	28640	14000	15660	59510	12290	75520	23220	107000	28580	20130	63790	17280	29080	53060	96000	20330	65230	19730	21300	22280	20740	43110	35990	40890	20370	42400	20020	25020	71690	19710	31750	19730	25850	55870	8118	37940	37260	18590	27950	70810	67950	19180	18620	17890	24450	76620	8948	37270	1805	17010	12750	16080	80630	12270	103600	65890	9548	23090	82900	30950	21620	25780	15740	17190	50090	11380	33900	64580	54200	18580	64000	17820	25220	71710	21440	13370	20580	19660	18390	29330	21010	15010	16220	17770	59790	23640	32240	17110	24750	7908	27860	65170	28730	16800	22770	21070	26140	18720	16010	22320	54390	27020	18600	12010	15270	40530	25090	116300	22590	14690	22960	16270	56370	25710	18450	56440	29380	14450	40330	17910	52470	20210	29060	47970	17430	19920	16030	21610	58190	26300	21970	17180	21670	60580	21920	22040	58050	29940	18410	12160	23620	9794	21910	45210	26470	20090	21530	52890	35210	82650	37220	71440	27010	165200	77860	15840	59780	20430	19380	25950	109100	45490	33300	11710	9469	127500	22360	56540	9199	18100	13930	42690	11960	13410	27180	31790	24090	30460	14760	55460	15340	13820	8671	30130	25170	23470	62860	24930	71200	29820	35210	21580	14260	18870	31180	23860	19630	69100	29670	10540	35150	43840	12740	19930	44960	57690	23950	72260	26470	12560	53350	1150	28470	17530	19400	18140	40880	46350	40670	17650	31720	31750	67560	27580	16790	30450	33550	49690	13800	37710	8111	49820	17960	16210	13400	57450	21410	15960	24370	19060	6459	7830	61590	68980	17610	12560	19670	57970	16790	22620	111400	1250	50900	31580	44140	21260	16150	13740	25210	20920	52870	12130	14640	24770	14990	58410	19830	16950	23740	23450	23700	21360	31780	47320	38900	63400	20800	29940	40800	25570	17940	17270	13820	65110	40850	52010	21090	17460	56330	17310	44220	28250	47880	38600	50210	16540	17390	19080	34480	25170	22270	14390	24200	18620	41520	24860	21770	18640	9731	66160	53700	21300	17340	25640	21890	70670	56050	58130	70660	47160	26170	20730	21820	24890	14870	23730	25250	7468	16840	22680	16040	31250	16910	24740	40590	73600	78410	21700	28500	62800	19770	31010	53100	18130	17550	26630	19900	33410	21220	16810	36740
2021-12-30	27950	28250	9731	17230	24440	14110	27240	25210	9576	42980	26500	25650	24260	37330	12950	48530	75630	54820	14290	42630	29680	23000	34300	37310	67620	52410	221100	21630	37030	28800	14010	15760	59640	12360	75840	23680	107700	28960	20400	64520	17440	29150	53570	97100	20660	65820	19910	21790	22480	20940	43580	36030	41210	20520	42790	20180	25070	71980	19830	31930	19990	25870	56580	8148	38530	37650	18750	28240	71280	68820	19390	18780	18070	24570	76690	8948	37640	1821	17060	12860	16200	81090	12370	104100	66340	9629	23330	86060	31650	21750	26080	15910	17210	50400	11540	33960	64990	54740	18740	64500	17840	25220	72230	21440	13520	20710	19670	18480	29620	21130	15010	16360	17770	60430	23810	32580	17200	24800	7931	28010	67060	29030	17010	23060	21180	26140	18890	16120	22340	54390	27120	18810	12070	15400	40780	25380	116300	22700	14740	23110	16370	56840	25820	18480	56720	29630	14620	40880	18090	52940	20620	29380	48480	17540	20000	16100	21770	59430	26510	22200	17320	21670	61230	22090	22260	58780	30220	18550	12160	23860	9808	22040	45720	26560	20300	21760	53190	35650	83070	37460	72080	27340	166400	78590	15960	60350	20640	19530	25980	110200	45590	33650	11940	9509	129000	22480	56950	9278	18200	13950	43150	12020	13500	27470	31810	24140	30590	14760	56010	15490	13850	8671	30170	25260	23730	63310	25190	72350	29880	35260	21580	14330	19030	31380	24110	19870	69100	29840	10580	35410	44220	12840	20100	45280	58300	24690	72990	26670	12680	54300	1156	28770	17570	19530	18140	41070	46680	40900	17680	31980	32100	69190	27710	16910	30550	33550	49770	13970	37980	8140	50120	18250	16460	13480	58150	21620	16120	24600	19200	6522	7908	62100	69400	17740	12560	19760	58280	16890	22780	112200	1259	51350	31790	44660	21440	16150	13800	25390	21120	53250	12230	14680	25010	15110	58410	20020	17080	23930	23640	23820	21510	32000	47660	39770	63960	21060	30100	41080	25860	18020	17450	13820	66080	41120	52400	21270	17550	56590	17480	44690	28560	47960	38910	50600	16650	17630	19180	34680	25290	22490	14470	24440	18800	42560	25150	21860	18670	9802	66480	54070	21470	17760	25680	22170	71110	56590	58850	71040	47650	26450	21130	22010	25100	14970	23980	25480	7518	16840	22860	16160	31260	17020	25000	40940	74300	79010	21940	28710	63360	19970	31400	53460	18310	17720	26700	20050	33710	21390	16940	37350
2021-12-31	27980	28260	9765	17370	24780	14110	27240	25210	9576	43000	26640	25790	24400	37650	13050	49480	76220	55120	14450	43410	29920	23140	34560	37560	67720	52540	222200	21780	37190	29010	14030	15870	59690	12430	76160	23890	108100	29220	20540	65300	17580	29240	54060	99000	20750	66390	20030	22330	22660	21090	44010	36080	41520	20630	43180	20330	25140	72060	19950	32020	20300	25880	57360	8178	38890	38030	18920	28540	71670	69460	19610	18930	18230	24710	76760	8948	37980	1835	17100	12980	16330	81500	12470	104600	66700	9703	23660	86800	32130	21870	26350	16050	17220	50710	11750	33990	65410	55190	18910	64960	17870	25220	72640	21440	13650	20840	19670	18600	29840	21260	15020	16490	17770	60960	23940	32840	17290	24870	7957	28140	67930	29310	17220	23350	21270	26140	19060	16240	22360	54390	27140	19040	12130	15500	41010	25810	116300	22820	14800	23270	16480	57350	25930	18520	57010	29860	14720	41330	18230	53420	20900	29580	48960	17660	20080	16180	21930	59660	26720	22460	17440	21670	61940	22250	22350	59490	30470	18710	12160	24020	9823	22140	46210	26640	20520	21970	53480	35950	83510	37710	72720	27700	167300	79060	16070	60760	20860	19670	26010	111200	45590	33940	12190	9553	130100	22600	56990	9343	18310	13970	43470	12080	13580	27750	31820	24140	30740	14760	56780	15620	13880	8671	30210	25360	24040	63740	25370	74050	29930	35260	21580	14410	19190	31590	24350	20020	69100	30020	10630	35680	44650	12930	20290	45550	58730	24690	73560	26880	12830	54920	1164	29070	17620	19640	18140	41230	46960	41170	17690	32210	32480	69770	27830	17050	30670	33550	49860	14180	38250	8170	50320	18670	16670	13590	58530	21770	16290	24940	19330	6584	8002	62540	69830	17860	12560	19840	58580	16960	22940	113100	1267	51770	31990	45160	21600	16150	13860	25580	21280	53630	12320	14720	25170	15250	58410	20210	17190	24120	23790	23930	21670	32210	48010	40210	64510	21450	30260	41380	26060	18100	17620	13830	66530	41390	52740	21450	17640	56860	17650	45170	28750	48040	39220	50950	16740	17660	19280	34830	25400	22620	14550	24730	18800	42970	25360	21960	18690	9858	66760	54510	21610	18290	25720	22430	71530	56930	59370	71400	48090	26720	21240	22260	25290	15100	24190	25710	7567	16840	23040	16320	31270	17140	25190	41280	74990	79620	22150	28900	63910	20150	31920	53820	18530	17800	26730	20210	33950	21560	17080	37800
2022-01-01	28010	28270	9804	17460	25010	14110	27240	25210	9576	43020	26770	25930	24560	37900	13150	49640	76800	55420	14620	43850	30160	23270	34820	37850	67820	53340	223100	21930	37330	29230	14040	15970	59930	12470	76330	24130	108600	29440	20680	65700	17700	29280	54280	100100	20900	66660	20170	22640	22780	21230	44260	36130	41730	20660	43560	20490	25230	72220	20040	32080	20460	25900	57850	8207	39260	38240	19010	28740	72050	70340	19830	19010	18320	24930	76810	8948	38250	1846	17150	13100	16400	81780	12570	104900	67070	9747	23870	87170	32600	21960	26520	16150	17250	51010	11900	34000	65760	55490	19010	65260	17880	25220	72970	21440	13720	20910	19670	18660	30020	21350	15020	16570	17770	61360	24020	33010	17380	24970	7988	28220	67930	29440	17380	23540	21340	26140	19230	16360	22380	54390	27140	19190	12190	15670	41200	26040	116300	22940	14870	23430	16580	57520	25980	18520	57330	30040	14820	41510	18330	53900	21150	29740	49310	17780	20160	16260	22030	60280	26890	22600	17500	21670	62360	22430	22430	59910	30610	18820	12160	24120	9823	22200	46680	26640	20690	22100	53690	36150	83920	37960	73340	27930	168200	79420	16200	61260	21030	19820	26040	111800	45760	34110	12370	9604	130800	22690	57140	9392	18410	13990	43780	12130	13660	28040	31840	24140	30840	14760	57220	15670	13910	8671	30250	25470	24190	63990	25480	74780	29990	35270	21580	14480	19350	31730	24480	20160	69100	30200	10680	35940	45000	12990	20420	45740	59170	24690	74020	27090	12920	55550	1164	29260	17670	19710	18150	41340	47160	41300	17710	32360	32670	69970	27950	17160	30810	33550	49950	14320	38520	8203	50670	18910	16810	13650	58880	21900	16450	25100	19470	6647	8070	62950	70120	17990	12560	19940	58630	17020	23100	114800	1275	52090	32130	45650	21710	16150	13890	25660	21390	54010	12400	14770	25300	15370	58410	20400	17290	24330	24060	24060	21810	32380	48240	40420	65060	21670	30430	41670	26270	18180	17710	13830	66990	41610	52940	21580	17740	57120	17730	45430	28760	48130	39530	51210	16820	17690	19390	34930	25510	22720	14630	24940	18800	43400	25550	22060	18700	9901	66760	54820	21740	18610	25770	22620	71890	57260	59690	71740	48370	26860	21360	22340	25440	15180	24300	25930	7612	16840	23220	16430	31280	17270	25340	41620	75680	80230	22320	29020	64380	20250	32140	54090	18690	17810	26760	20330	34120	21720	17210	38220
2022-01-02	28040	28280	9844	17600	25120	14110	27260	25220	9576	43040	26910	26070	24710	38120	13240	49640	77390	55690	14780	44060	30400	23410	35080	38030	67920	53340	224400	22080	37520	29390	14050	16080	60490	12510	76660	24220	108900	29720	20800	66260	17830	29310	54660	100600	21120	67320	20290	22640	22960	21290	44560	36180	42000	20810	43930	20650	25320	72350	20170	32180	20560	25910	58150	8237	39470	38550	19140	28910	72630	70620	20040	19110	18460	25140	76850	8948	38510	1856	17200	13220	16490	82250	12670	105300	67470	9812	24000	87170	32750	22050	26730	16240	17280	51320	11950	34010	66140	55630	19140	65680	17880	25220	73560	21440	13810	21030	19680	18780	30290	21480	15030	16670	17770	61730	24110	33260	17480	25070	8021	28450	67930	29670	17510	23680	21460	26140	19390	16460	22400	54390	27140	19250	12250	15760	41410	26160	116300	23060	14950	23590	16690	58150	26180	18540	57670	30260	14920	41920	18460	54390	21230	29920	49740	17910	20240	16340	22160	60650	27030	22780	17620	21670	62820	22600	22640	60330	30830	18890	12160	24280	9826	22270	47150	26810	20800	22280	54010	36450	84370	38210	73960	28150	169300	79840	16330	61840	21140	19970	26070	112700	46160	34350	12410	9658	131700	22810	57780	9456	18530	14020	44160	12190	13750	28330	31860	24140	30960	14760	57480	15790	13940	8671	30290	25590	24310	64360	25670	74780	30040	35270	21580	14550	19470	31900	24670	20300	69100	30370	10730	36200	45260	13040	20520	45950	59500	24690	74420	27300	12960	55550	1166	29410	17710	19800	18150	41530	47450	41480	17740	32570	32810	69970	28080	17250	30960	33550	50030	14380	38790	8238	51040	19020	16840	13720	59210	22040	16620	25250	19610	6709	8135	63430	70470	18120	12570	20040	59240	17220	23260	114900	1282	52410	32320	46140	21860	16150	13970	25850	21530	54390	12490	14820	25450	15460	58410	20590	17390	24540	24210	24180	21960	32570	48520	40520	65600	21780	30590	41970	26420	18260	17840	13830	67510	41860	53220	21740	17850	57400	17870	45860	28890	48220	39840	51610	16920	17830	19500	35200	25660	22840	14720	25110	18940	43700	25710	22160	18730	9939	67260	55190	21880	18740	25810	22740	72280	57520	60200	72080	48760	27060	21510	22500	25630	15250	24490	26160	7657	16840	23410	16520	31290	17400	25430	41950	76380	80850	22490	29230	64890	20410	32210	54430	18800	17890	26800	20450	34270	21870	17350	38490

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-12-27 to 2022-01-02

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-12-26	27815	28216	9637	16741	23395	14104	27079	24910	9570	42898	25984	25091	23770	35801	12594	44765	73259	53263	13615	39804	28717	22431	33251	35214	67259	50764	213122	21050	36097	28268	13966	15326	59237	12090	74727	21950	104879	27441	19496	61567	16841	28809	51583	92557	19438	63380	19189	20325	21756	20279	41627	35861	39986	20113	41167	19570	24928	71048	19372	31373	18897	25811	53578	8026	36467	36116	18062	27171	69597	65390	18502	18054	17260	24114	76285	8903	36040	1743	16858	12426	15679	79706	11956	101964	64519	9289	22500	74905	28953	21263	24866	15268	17070	49161	10819	33703	63224	52734	18037	62591	17771	25179	70151	21429	12901	20256	19640	18098	28519	20651	14989	15817	17642	58112	23187	31232	16889	24651	7862	27369	61019	27737	15930	21884	20802	26049	18182	15704	22263	54202	26738	17870	11838	14850	39791	24439	115911	22276	14546	22476	15947	54735	25296	18318	55906	28559	13985	37966	17463	51044	19089	28337	46706	17156	19669	15808	21034	56205	25746	21129	16766	21661	58614	21439	21708	55882	29364	18015	12139	23037	9738	21514	43527	26067	19488	20947	51915	33802	81408	36491	69326	26017	162080	75862	15547	57909	19851	18912	25849	106164	45168	32363	10911	9374	123383	22035	55868	8959	17833	13866	41535	11822	13168	26318	31746	23951	30074	14688	53678	14845	13732	8664	30012	24975	22711	61715	24053	68857	29669	34973	21486	13997	18365	30673	23142	18913	68823	29120	10448	34338	42832	12443	19547	43955	56081	22544	69910	25835	12285	51099	1118	27426	17389	19046	18132	40399	45478	40158	17534	30974	30694	63692	27206	16442	30270	33465	49458	13273	36903	8041	49041	17097	15581	13187	55305	20907	15437	23985	18650	6269	7543	59889	67656	17227	12489	19453	57470	16620	22124	107479	1220	49719	30955	42469	20782	16136	13638	24822	20375	51734	11831	14546	24140	14582	58226	19241	16533	23221	22706	23397	20894	31135	46297	36595	61658	20257	29465	39936	24951	17715	16739	13792	62038	40044	50956	20478	17237	55534	16858	42596	27319	47684	37636	49196	16205	16873	18765	34151	24817	21803	14179	23419	18430	39261	23825	21463	18557	9495	64991	52419	20777	15954	25539	20940	69466	54495	55556	69406	45746	25366	19664	21055	24365	14644	23052	24548	7301	16788	22147	15702	31199	16625	23937	39468	71437	76572	20845	27786	60952	19180	29934	52016	17564	17235	26393	19373	32744	20731	16397	34996
2021-12-27	27870	28310	9710	16850	23570	14110	27160	24990	9604	42960	26150	25280	23930	36110	12710	45330	74080	53610	13750	40250	28980	22560	33520	35550	67330	51390	214700	21230	36330	28460	13990	15430	59700	12150	75190	22240	105400	27750	19670	62340	17040	28870	52140	93360	19670	64230	19380	20510	21980	20420	42060	35930	40250	20300	41790	19720	25180	71240	19490	31470	19080	25860	54130	8063	36830	36480	18190	27460	70380	66050	18670	18210	17450	24320	76400	8928	36440	1750	16940	12550	15790	80140	12050	102500	65020	9355	22670	76200	29350	21390	25160	15400	17160	49500	10920	33750	63640	53160	18210	63050	17830	25230	70960	21450	13020	20410	19720	18260	28880	20790	15060	15950	17700	58520	23350	31590	17030	24860	7900	27690	61840	28150	16140	22070	20920	26110	18320	15830	22320	54300	26900	18050	11890	14980	40040	24640	116100	22440	14620	22680	16040	55490	25580	18440	56650	28840	14110	38670	17610	51800	19310	28540	47220	17300	19760	15900	21230	56880	25940	21350	16900	21710	59180	21590	21920	56420	29660	18130	12170	23220	9830	21630	44240	26350	19620	21120	52270	34270	81890	36760	70340	26260	163400	76370	15710	58850	20010	19050	25890	107100	45460	32660	11040	9435	124900	22160	56370	9045	17930	13910	42100	11890	13280	26570	31780	24000	30190	14710	54190	15000	13790	8705	30100	25160	22890	62080	24260	69400	29810	35070	21590	14060	18520	30860	23420	19110	68930	29300	10550	34570	43140	12520	19700	44260	56490	22800	70530	25990	12360	51500	1123	27670	17470	19140	18140	40630	45770	40390	17630	31190	30990	64590	27340	16550	30610	33500	49610	13380	37200	8082	49390	17300	15710	13280	55760	21100	15610	24160	18800	6326	7616	60460	68060	17320	12560	19560	57930	16750	22290	108400	1225	50100	31160	42790	20930	16210	13760	25060	20550	52080	11930	14630	24320	14710	58380	19480	16660	23420	22930	23530	21080	31310	46640	37070	62510	20450	29810	40240	25150	17820	16920	13810	62790	40260	51320	20650	17350	55830	17040	43150	27590	47800	37930	49570	16320	17100	18870	34350	25000	22030	14260	23610	18630	39860	24140	21560	18640	9554	65920	52970	20950	16200	25640	21180	69950	54910	56170	70620	46190	25560	19920	21280	24590	14740	23310	24760	7345	16850	22320	15810	31260	16780	24190	40040	72040	77260	21070	28100	61430	19380	30220	52390	17730	17420	26490	19540	33070	20900	16500	35350
2021-12-28	27960	28430	9790	16940	23740	14140	27300	25150	9659	43090	26300	25460	24080	36440	12830	45880	75040	53910	13870	40770	29260	22680	33800	35870	67480	52130	216300	21390	36530	28620	14040	15530	60120	12230	75710	22500	105900	28040	19830	63190	17260	29010	52690	94210	19910	65250	19530	20770	22210	20540	42450	36090	40490	20570	42530	19860	25420	71600	19580	31630	19290	25950	54740	8146	37150	36890	18340	27710	71160	66590	18820	18360	17660	24530	76740	8983	36820	1766	17080	12660	15890	80550	12170	103000	65520	9429	22850	77520	29750	21480	25490	15530	17290	49900	11020	33840	64060	53530	18390	63470	17890	25290	71830	21520	13140	20540	19800	18460	29290	20900	15130	16070	17830	58900	23470	31960	17140	25070	7925	28120	62790	28500	16410	22280	21040	26230	18460	15920	22410	54570	27080	18230	11960	15080	40240	24870	116400	22560	14670	22880	16150	56340	25900	18600	57420	29090	14210	39440	17730	52700	19500	28760	47720	17420	19840	15990	21380	57630	26110	21610	17060	21790	59810	21740	22130	56960	29960	18230	12220	23470	9920	21760	45200	26770	19740	21260	52530	34790	82380	37000	71680	26520	164600	76890	15850	59860	20150	19180	26000	108000	45790	33030	11180	9481	126200	22320	56960	9117	18050	14000	42750	11940	13420	26860	31870	24120	30280	14770	54710	15180	13890	8761	30230	25350	23100	62420	24450	70230	29990	35270	21720	14120	18680	31020	23720	19280	69220	29480	10640	34800	43400	12610	19850	44550	56840	23110	71250	26140	12430	51900	1133	28000	17590	19230	18190	40880	46060	40640	17730	31390	31300	65360	27440	16640	31030	33620	49830	13490	37620	8111	49750	17500	15810	13380	56170	21270	15810	24370	18940	6382	7681	61150	68430	17390	12640	19650	58350	16860	22530	109300	1237	50430	31370	43120	21060	16290	13900	25370	20700	52410	12020	14710	24530	14830	58670	19710	16800	23630	23160	23660	21220	31460	47020	37570	63630	20670	30230	40510	25340	17910	17090	13860	63500	40440	51640	20810	17470	56040	17230	43760	27830	48060	38200	49980	16420	17320	18950	34540	25170	22240	14340	23790	18870	40440	24460	21660	18750	9592	67070	53430	21170	16460	25820	21410	70370	55230	57000	72250	46610	25790	20130	21540	24830	14840	23590	24990	7393	16930	22500	15920	31400	16890	24410	40720	72590	77850	21340	28430	61900	19590	30530	52720	17870	17590	26650	19690	33430	21030	16600	35700
2021-12-29	28020	28470	9870	17030	23930	14160	27450	25350	9687	43250	26450	25640	24240	36770	12970	46510	75970	54270	14010	41300	29550	22800	34070	36250	67650	52900	217900	21560	36770	28790	14090	15650	60580	12290	76340	22790	106400	28370	20020	64050	17490	29190	53350	95150	20200	66320	19710	21040	22450	20680	42910	36240	40790	20810	43240	20000	25660	72000	19680	31800	19490	26060	55350	8226	37540	37290	18490	27960	72140	67210	18990	18530	17870	24760	76970	8990	37210	1778	17230	12780	16020	81000	12290	103600	66090	9498	23080	78970	30170	21590	25810	15670	17420	50320	11120	33940	64480	53970	18550	63930	17910	25330	72730	21550	13280	20690	19840	18650	29690	21030	15160	16220	17870	59320	23640	32390	17250	25280	7954	28500	63550	28880	16640	22510	21180	26280	18610	16030	22520	54640	27280	18410	12020	15200	40480	25120	116600	22690	14740	23080	16260	57170	26200	18770	58260	29360	14330	40160	17890	53510	19730	28990	48250	17580	19910	16090	21570	58480	26280	21870	17230	21800	60450	21920	22400	57540	30280	18350	12240	23760	10040	21900	46020	27170	19860	21410	52840	35270	82900	37260	72970	26780	165900	77460	16010	60950	20320	19320	26140	109000	46140	33370	11330	9531	127700	22480	57510	9197	18170	14110	43390	12000	13580	27140	31960	24260	30390	14800	55280	15370	13990	8785	30340	25540	23320	62800	24670	71110	30180	35500	21750	14180	18850	31220	24010	19480	69350	29660	10750	35040	43690	12700	20000	44860	57220	23430	71980	26320	12520	52350	1141	28310	17690	19330	18230	41170	46360	40900	17850	31630	31590	66230	27550	16740	31460	33680	50100	13620	38050	8145	50140	17740	15930	13490	56610	21450	15990	24590	19090	6442	7752	61900	68810	17460	12670	19750	58860	16990	22770	110300	1247	50770	31590	43480	21190	16340	14050	25690	20890	52750	12110	14800	24740	14980	58780	19960	16950	23860	23390	23800	21370	31630	47400	38080	64700	20920	30630	40810	25570	18020	17270	13890	64360	40640	52000	20990	17580	56280	17420	44410	28100	48390	38470	50450	16530	17560	19040	34730	25360	22480	14430	24000	19070	41040	24790	21750	18860	9632	68110	54010	21370	16740	25990	21660	70820	55590	57810	73720	47100	26020	20360	21770	25120	14940	23850	25220	7438	16950	22670	16040	31500	17040	24630	41380	73180	78520	21600	28750	62470	19800	30870	53080	18010	17760	26790	19860	33770	21180	16710	36100
2021-12-30	28060	28530	9960	17120	24130	14190	27560	25460	9708	43340	26600	25830	24400	37080	13090	47100	76910	54610	14150	41780	29840	22920	34340	36630	67860	53720	219400	21740	37010	28970	14140	15750	61050	12370	76900	23100	107000	28680	20220	64870	17710	29320	53910	96090	20470	67340	19890	21320	22710	20830	43330	36410	41080	21070	43940	20140	25880	72440	19770	31980	19700	26140	55930	8305	37950	37700	18640	28240	72710	67860	19150	18690	18060	24960	77140	8993	37630	1789	17360	12900	16140	81480	12410	104100	66640	9568	23290	80630	30610	21710	26130	15810	17540	50740	11220	34030	64880	54440	18720	64380	17940	25360	73580	21570	13400	20840	19870	18800	30100	21150	15190	16360	17880	59730	23800	32790	17360	25490	7987	28870	64520	29230	16870	22720	21320	26310	18760	16150	22590	54670	27480	18570	12090	15310	40710	25380	116700	22830	14800	23290	16370	58010	26490	18920	59090	29610	14460	40830	18050	54380	20010	29230	48820	17730	19980	16180	21730	59440	26460	22110	17370	21810	61060	22080	22660	58190	30590	18450	12250	24050	10120	22030	46820	27590	20000	21590	53100	35770	83390	37530	74250	27040	167200	78020	16160	61930	20490	19450	26220	109900	46520	33740	11460	9589	129300	22620	58140	9273	18290	14170	44030	12060	13710	27430	32050	24340	30490	14820	55810	15550	14080	8805	30490	25740	23540	63220	24850	71940	30390	35580	21790	14240	18990	31400	24300	19660	69410	29830	10840	35280	43980	12790	20160	45180	57640	23810	72700	26490	12620	52840	1150	28600	17830	19450	18250	41440	46660	41140	17940	31860	31880	67240	27660	16840	31840	33720	50440	13740	38490	8185	50520	17970	16060	13590	57080	21650	16180	24840	19240	6505	7817	62380	69200	17540	12690	19860	59330	17130	23020	111000	1257	51130	31790	43820	21330	16350	14180	25980	21090	53100	12200	14890	24960	15100	58860	20170	17090	24080	23600	23930	21520	31790	47780	38640	65790	21190	31020	41120	25820	18130	17460	13900	65200	40830	52350	21160	17700	56540	17610	45010	28370	48690	38750	50950	16630	17840	19130	34950	25550	22700	14520	24180	19320	41780	25090	21850	18980	9675	69140	54560	21570	17010	26160	21900	71270	55990	58620	75100	47560	26240	20650	22000	25350	15040	24150	25460	7482	16960	22860	16150	31560	17190	24850	42030	73800	79200	21830	29050	62980	20020	31220	53420	18160	17980	26940	19990	34110	21320	16810	36500
2021-12-31	28140	28610	10040	17220	24310	14210	27590	25470	9746	43360	26740	25980	24560	37350	13210	47570	77780	54860	14250	42150	30130	23040	34620	36840	67990	54080	220500	21890	37200	29120	14190	15830	61360	12430	77410	23250	107300	28870	20330	65690	17910	29470	54390	97080	20600	68250	20000	21600	22920	20920	43680	36570	41310	21270	44620	20270	26090	72870	19870	32080	19860	26160	56380	8385	38190	38090	18790	28490	73140	68300	19300	18830	18250	25140	77230	9017	37890	1798	17460	12990	16230	81870	12530	104500	67110	9635	23510	81420	30910	21800	26420	15920	17630	51130	11330	34070	65240	54780	18870	64750	17980	25400	74330	21600	13490	20970	19900	18940	30460	21250	15240	16460	17930	60050	23910	33000	17440	25660	8022	29220	64970	29540	17070	22910	21440	26370	18900	16240	22610	54760	27580	18720	12150	15400	40880	25630	116700	22940	14880	23470	16480	58820	26770	19020	59830	29790	14540	41420	18180	55150	20150	29380	49340	17870	20050	16270	21870	59770	26600	22360	17510	21870	61670	22230	22800	58860	30820	18550	12270	24170	10180	22130	47530	27900	20130	21760	53350	36150	83840	37750	75530	27290	168300	78430	16280	62880	20640	19590	26270	110700	46750	34010	11590	9643	130000	22740	58480	9327	18420	14230	44570	12120	13800	27720	32140	24360	30600	14860	56300	15680	14170	8842	30590	25940	23740	63550	24990	72770	30540	35620	21860	14300	19120	31570	24580	19780	69470	29990	10920	35520	44240	12870	20300	45420	57890	23900	73290	26660	12720	53150	1158	28890	17950	19520	18280	41640	46930	41360	18020	32030	32140	67660	27780	16930	32080	33730	50780	13840	38890	8219	50800	18180	16170	13690	57350	21820	16360	25090	19360	6554	7882	63000	69600	17620	12700	19960	59710	17240	23230	111700	1266	51440	31970	44170	21470	16400	14290	26200	21240	53460	12290	14970	25120	15220	58880	20410	17220	24310	23750	24070	21650	31970	48150	38980	66980	21440	31350	41340	25980	18220	17630	13920	65700	41030	52630	21330	17820	56760	17780	45600	28540	48810	39030	51290	16720	17970	19230	35110	25680	22850	14620	24360	19440	42110	25290	21950	19060	9709	70030	55040	21760	17250	26300	22120	71640	56250	59300	76310	47910	26480	20750	22230	25530	15140	24400	25690	7526	16980	23030	16260	31700	17320	24980	42680	74270	79770	22060	29330	63360	20230	31560	53720	18320	18100	27050	20130	34330	21450	16900	36780
2022-01-01	28200	28690	10110	17320	24470	14230	27640	25550	9787	43440	26860	26140	24720	37610	13290	48030	78500	55060	14370	42550	30420	23160	34890	37040	68160	54630	221300	22030	37310	29270	14240	15920	61690	12480	77790	23410	107600	29060	20420	66360	18090	29560	54770	97800	20750	69000	20110	21770	23100	21010	43970	36740	41490	21450	45230	20390	26290	73160	19960	32150	20010	26210	56840	8467	38460	38460	18930	28680	73790	68780	19430	18930	18400	25340	77410	9033	38230	1807	17550	13100	16300	82140	12640	104900	67540	9695	23690	81940	31170	21880	26660	16000	17710	51430	11430	34100	65440	55040	18990	65060	18010	25440	74950	21640	13570	21050	19950	19080	30780	21320	15300	16540	17990	60310	23990	33300	17530	25830	8059	29500	65480	29800	17260	23050	21540	26450	19040	16330	22640	54880	27670	18840	12220	15510	41070	25850	116800	23050	14950	23650	16590	59500	27010	19080	60310	29950	14600	41900	18270	55850	20270	29520	49810	18010	20110	16330	21970	60180	26720	22580	17600	21920	62230	22370	22910	59420	31010	18630	12280	24340	10220	22210	48330	28130	20250	21860	53530	36510	84280	37940	76640	27510	169500	78780	16390	63860	20760	19720	26340	111300	46960	34250	11690	9699	131100	22850	58920	9374	18540	14310	45130	12160	13950	28020	32230	24410	30710	14890	56740	15810	14220	8872	30680	26130	23870	63780	25100	73520	30670	35710	21920	14360	19230	31680	24800	19890	69630	30120	11000	35760	44480	12920	20410	45620	58150	24070	73800	26800	12780	53480	1165	29150	18050	19600	18330	41820	47170	41540	18070	32180	32340	68100	27880	17020	32360	33830	50970	13940	39340	8245	51080	18350	16260	13760	57660	21930	16520	25270	19480	6605	7931	63600	69910	17690	12730	20050	59970	17340	23410	112700	1275	51650	32120	44460	21600	16440	14390	26410	21350	53820	12360	15040	25270	15330	59000	20560	17340	24540	23960	24210	21750	32090	48460	39260	67910	21650	31640	41600	26130	18310	17770	13940	66130	41230	52810	21490	17940	56950	17910	46110	28660	49010	39320	51650	16800	18060	19320	35240	25850	22990	14710	24500	19570	42450	25490	22040	19120	9739	70780	55530	21950	17450	26420	22320	71960	56480	59930	77400	48190	26700	20860	22380	25690	15210	24590	25920	7570	17020	23220	16340	31820	17440	25100	43260	74790	80260	22260	29560	63730	20390	31870	53950	18410	18190	27160	20230	34590	21570	16990	37070
2022-01-02	28270	28780	10190	17420	24620	14260	27740	25630	9826	43530	26990	26280	24880	37820	13380	48460	79360	55280	14490	42900	30700	23280	35170	37230	68360	55140	222400	22160	37450	29410	14290	16000	62070	12530	78200	23580	107900	29270	20520	67160	18280	29650	55240	98430	20950	69890	20220	21950	23270	21090	44300	36910	41700	21690	45850	20520	26460	73460	20060	32260	20150	26280	57220	8548	38690	38780	19080	28860	74330	69150	19580	19060	18580	25520	77630	9056	38540	1816	17650	13210	16370	82480	12760	105300	68000	9762	23840	82600	31450	21950	26950	16080	17790	51810	11500	34140	65730	55290	19120	65430	18040	25480	75770	21680	13660	21150	19980	19230	31170	21420	15370	16640	18070	60600	24080	33620	17610	25990	8095	29880	66040	30080	17480	23190	21650	26530	19170	16420	22710	55060	27780	18940	12290	15600	41240	26010	116800	23160	15030	23820	16700	60280	27340	19150	61170	30160	14670	42660	18380	56610	20390	29680	50290	18150	20170	16400	22090	60720	26830	22800	17700	21950	62730	22520	23090	59910	31200	18710	12290	24570	10270	22290	49260	28580	20350	21970	53750	36900	84740	38130	77740	27730	170300	79150	16490	64690	20860	19860	26420	112100	47250	34500	11780	9760	132100	22960	59400	9437	18670	14370	45660	12220	14100	28320	32320	24500	30810	14920	57130	15970	14300	8907	30760	26340	24020	64080	25260	74110	30780	35820	22010	14420	19350	31790	25060	20020	69750	30270	11080	36000	44710	12980	20510	45830	58410	24200	74300	26930	12830	53680	1173	29410	18150	19680	18360	42030	47440	41720	18140	32340	32540	68570	27990	17100	32700	33890	51120	14020	39770	8274	51380	18500	16330	13820	57990	22040	16700	25460	19610	6664	7988	64140	70250	17770	12760	20160	60410	17450	23690	113200	1284	51890	32290	44780	21750	16500	14500	26630	21470	54190	12440	15110	25440	15420	59110	20740	17460	24750	24140	24330	21850	32240	48820	39550	68840	21830	32020	41870	26280	18390	17920	13960	66680	41430	53030	21670	18050	57160	18080	46590	28840	49210	39610	52060	16870	18220	19420	35410	25980	23140	14810	24640	19750	42850	25720	22140	19200	9761	71970	55970	22140	17630	26540	22520	72300	56730	60520	79090	48550	26920	21010	22590	25870	15280	24870	26160	7614	17060	23410	16430	31930	17550	25210	43810	75360	80790	22490	29780	64190	20590	32140	54230	18480	18300	27250	20360	34820	21690	17080	37340

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-12-26 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-12-26