COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-01-01 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-01-01

Slideshow of forecasts 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how we lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-01-01

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-12-282021-12-282021-12-29 --2021-12-282021-12-282021-12-272021-12-272021-12-222021-12-292021-12-29 --2021-12-29 --2021-12-282021-12-292021-12-28 --2021-12-29 --2021-12-29 -- --2021-12-292021-12-292021-12-29 -- -- -- --2021-12-282021-12-29 --2021-12-29 -- -- -- --2021-12-292021-12-292021-12-272021-12-292021-12-29 -- --2021-12-262021-12-292021-12-29 -- --2021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-262021-12-212021-12-29 --2021-12-28 --2021-12-282021-12-282021-12-292021-12-292021-12-27 -- -- -- --2021-12-272021-12-292021-12-29 --2021-12-27 --2021-12-272021-12-27 --2021-12-282021-12-29 -- -- -- -- --2021-12-29 -- --2021-12-292021-12-292021-12-29 -- --2021-12-272021-12-292021-12-292021-12-28 --2021-12-292021-12-292021-12-282021-12-272021-12-272021-12-292021-12-272021-12-28 --2021-12-27 --2021-12-292021-12-292021-12-282021-12-292021-12-28 --2021-12-29 --2021-12-292021-12-28 --2021-12-272021-12-26 --2021-12-262021-12-29 --2021-12-27 -- --2021-12-292021-12-272021-12-28 -- -- -- -- --2021-12-27 -- --2021-12-29 --2021-12-202021-12-272021-12-272021-12-15 -- --2021-12-20 --2021-12-27 --2021-12-292021-12-29 --2021-12-29 --2021-12-29 --2021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-272021-12-29 -- -- --2021-12-29 --2021-12-27 --2021-12-28 --2021-12-222021-12-20 --2021-12-29 --2021-12-262021-12-292021-12-282021-12-20 -- -- -- --2021-12-28 --2021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-29 -- --2021-12-292021-12-29 -- -- --2021-12-272021-12-27 -- -- --2021-12-282021-12-29 --2021-12-272021-12-292021-12-292021-12-282021-12-282021-12-29 --2021-12-29 -- --2021-12-262021-12-27 --2021-12-28 --2021-12-292021-12-292021-12-29 --2021-12-272021-12-29 -- -- -- -- --2021-12-29 --2021-12-292021-12-292021-12-29 -- -- --2021-12-292021-12-28 --2021-12-272021-12-29 --2021-12-292021-12-28 --2021-12-29 -- --2021-12-292021-12-262021-12-282021-12-29 --2021-12-26 -- -- -- -- -- --2021-12-29 --2021-12-28 --2021-12-292021-12-29 -- -- --2021-12-28 -- -- --2021-12-27 -- -- --2021-12-292021-12-29 --2021-12-27 --2021-12-29 -- -- --2021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-28 -- -- -- --2021-12-29 -- --2021-12-292021-12-292021-12-29 --2021-12-272021-12-282021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-272021-12-29 -- -- -- -- --2021-12-292021-12-26 --2021-12-29 --2021-12-28 --2021-12-29 -- -- -- -- -- --2021-12-292021-12-29 -- --2021-12-292021-11-232021-12-262021-12-292021-12-292021-12-272021-12-272021-12-29 --2021-12-28 --2021-12-202021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-28 -- --2021-12-272021-12-292021-12-022021-12-27 -- --2021-12-27 -- --2021-12-272021-12-29 --2021-12-262021-12-272021-12-282021-12-292021-12-29 -- -- --2021-12-28 --2021-12-29 -- -- --
Peak daily increment 497 560 163 427 159 497 549 92 604 270 343 219 660 1026 366 547 466 1244 803 398 282 110 286 964 232 583 696 1036 275 423 538 856 716 244 694 426 1167 624 310 625 791 214 1232 1111 484 212 1377 154 22 559 980 1242 527 286 279 995 224 1060 899 273 1083 323 349 957 290 151 470 466 287 267 239 324 263 238 327 387 997 225 523 465 696 1014 520 2071 328 958 316 317 2250 634 881 484 799 354 291 470 346 296 543 940 483 339 188 806 439 415 484 1417 714 1328 1099 287 483 2465 561 439 1678 317 318 683 472 323 289 809 195 185 305 741 384 1021 634 242 496 697 308 1564 507 531 376 874 612 304 294 378 615 561 276 319 239 400 665 1219 549 326 316 80 155 328 278 407 548 222 365 157 356 372 1280 298 572 600 1209 398 974 390 247 283 350 1078 235 677 1044 793 237 235 610 449 106 999 773 246 271 473 321 772 1329 953 371 290 240 304 385 60 262 496 686 1779 249 344 1151 239 380 415 395
Days since peak 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 10 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 5 3 3 6 3 3 3 3 3 6 11 3 4 4 4 3 3 5 5 3 3 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 3 4 3 3 4 5 5 3 5 4 5 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 4 5 6 6 3 5 3 5 4 5 3 12 5 5 17 12 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 3 5 4 10 12 3 6 3 4 12 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 4 3 5 3 3 4 4 3 3 6 5 4 3 3 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 3 3 4 3 3 6 4 3 6 3 4 3 3 4 5 3 3 5 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 5 4 3 3 3 5 3 3 6 3 4 3 3 3 3 39 6 3 3 5 5 3 4 12 3 3 3 4 5 3 30 5 5 5 3 6 5 4 3 3 4 3
Last total 30472 30722 10460 18845 25410 15270 29559 27454 10356 46132 27595 27364 25525 38446 13966 48709 78932 57915 15380 43375 31345 24371 35679 37804 73475 55327 227566 23109 38531 30825 15349 16663 64069 12755 79953 24113 111318 30084 21050 67024 18074 31147 55673 98978 21531 69071 20687 22206 23616 22038 44731 38590 43428 21485 44093 21554 26893 76298 21156 33550 20570 27972 58111 8871 39553 39089 19346 29631 76291 71458 20863 19291 18502 26527 84985 9723 39071 1918 18826 14362 16811 84920 12890 109515 69690 10158 24411 81721 31496 22726 26930 16470 18381 53550 11816 38038 68759 57000 19445 68190 19428 27149 75729 23415 13854 21603 21767 19503 31218 22242 16523 17106 19565 63146 24681 34846 18118 26507 8533 29436 66277 29974 17146 24049 22051 28503 19562 16812 25014 58758 29066 19281 12734 16257 43067 26583 127583 23784 15518 24239 17554 59723 27030 19911 59665 31463 15120 40719 18987 55105 20996 30541 50638 18441 21319 16791 22552 61257 27908 22932 18405 23859 63504 23344 23428 60335 32114 19554 13603 25012 10574 22669 46715 27970 21095 22742 55889 36471 88051 40000 74522 28283 174832 81258 16780 63009 21483 20413 28417 116354 48296 34725 11956 10068 132993 23848 60386 9834 18996 14962 45016 12515 14378 28496 34125 25679 32753 16116 58235 15935 14611 9931 32384 27060 24585 66007 25754 74375 32123 38374 23316 14933 20261 33401 24960 20592 75674 31741 11566 36773 46625 13460 21231 46818 61370 24662 74666 28390 13198 55268 1342 29364 18652 20504 19949 43061 48574 43107 18917 33182 32837 68830 29906 17859 32575 37313 54147 14430 39611 8654 52985 18806 16695 14015 60535 22761 16669 25880 20054 6728 8415 65175 72717 18508 14148 20652 63626 18226 23802 117356 1350 54133 32734 45628 22354 17703 14531 26786 22134 55610 12596 15432 26135 16168 64548 21157 17651 25127 25072 25028 22906 33497 49415 39800 66814 22043 31533 44308 27208 19031 18296 15328 67974 44322 54392 22234 18585 59691 18206 46266 29427 51341 41388 53507 17353 18224 19994 36705 27131 23431 15158 25534 19829 42744 25823 22692 20153 10071 69636 56890 22111 17441 27485 22748 75920 58934 60209 74276 49970 27461 21397 22475 26120 15729 24774 26637 7705 18395 24551 17015 34204 18232 25894 42653 78974 82165 22266 29856 68029 20573 32246 56542 18853 18584 28116 20794 35101 22606 17740 38221
Last daily increment 0 0 57 140 204 0 0 0 0 0 160 204 160 284 116 305 380 528 94 283 232 198 257 192 0 383 1400 258 276 187 0 128 342 58 473 185 762 193 121 414 82 0 288 537 189 397 138 148 176 159 145 0 352 129 149 195 168 0 152 0 141 0 423 0 405 238 137 247 500 458 201 112 100 239 0 0 235 0 0 183 104 523 86 857 534 68 155 399 212 160 166 123 0 352 78 0 624 374 118 571 0 0 429 0 92 167 0 136 178 161 0 98 0 560 157 332 120 198 42 122 403 165 100 180 117 0 120 101 0 0 0 132 70 143 347 218 0 190 118 134 149 339 181 0 230 167 103 189 179 243 147 217 318 107 183 106 126 378 192 136 102 0 335 239 158 389 284 211 0 194 0 54 227 115 178 93 418 204 733 309 296 201 1203 599 77 342 155 166 0 850 337 179 94 65 756 153 418 80 115 0 270 80 94 174 0 0 322 0 326 109 0 0 0 198 149 487 213 377 0 0 0 102 194 245 137 193 0 294 116 217 487 103 172 224 607 194 400 249 123 168 0 167 0 168 0 276 324 254 0 233 173 452 309 111 223 0 0 116 241 62 170 156 115 80 557 196 75 195 143 57 83 280 534 131 0 120 517 199 156 985 0 489 182 311 202 0 69 174 164 395 64 91 207 124 0 189 72 180 236 183 207 269 291 227 276 130 196 343 259 168 94 0 365 441 408 196 131 455 114 344 182 0 378 247 109 105 128 325 199 154 100 200 110 282 183 154 0 74 304 311 86 132 0 163 649 464 348 298 352 192 117 123 129 81 117 246 39 0 193 164 0 165 174 192 599 569 165 153 466 110 234 378 135 106 0 166 206 247 155 314
Last week 1338 1296 802 2003 1974 568 1714 1618 314 2195 1568 2184 1731 2555 1281 3755 5496 4522 1718 3488 2534 1874 2360 2528 4302 4407 13431 2013 2424 2542 1133 1271 4734 658 4853 2136 6344 2584 1480 5247 1216 1772 3991 6283 1937 5474 1441 1844 1822 1704 2981 2165 3395 1305 2758 1948 1920 4126 1756 1747 1640 1613 4469 634 3038 2887 1255 2385 6364 5830 2248 1185 1212 2395 3908 371 2808 75 1560 1883 1099 5176 895 7460 5013 835 1849 6426 2464 1445 1982 1172 1004 4273 952 3265 5278 3981 1387 5438 977 1021 5384 924 929 1331 1017 1347 2617 1547 774 1272 902 4925 1453 3341 1213 1794 656 1942 5080 2182 1181 2109 1220 1187 1369 1096 2061 2397 1796 1388 849 1401 3236 2086 5426 1463 963 1736 1457 4811 1711 1119 3598 2812 1100 2579 1504 3882 1854 2076 3835 1254 1604 956 1477 4897 2074 1745 1555 1204 4753 1855 1679 4311 2687 1523 703 1794 615 1069 3074 1771 1576 1776 3878 2582 6556 3462 4904 2234 12547 5258 1217 4865 1601 1457 1641 9980 3055 2302 983 660 8774 1691 4430 868 1122 870 3333 691 1118 2155 1797 1170 2678 722 4335 1064 670 721 1944 2026 1823 4270 1695 5265 1968 2408 833 924 1809 2621 1783 1628 3574 2504 1046 2403 3766 977 1664 2749 5203 1954 4656 2495 905 3946 97 1847 987 1436 942 2603 3071 2792 1098 2163 2103 4960 2660 1350 2239 1855 3675 1129 2522 613 3783 1665 1090 805 5089 1809 1202 1857 1385 443 856 5024 4863 1263 797 1195 6014 1582 1598 9315 83 4328 1744 2991 1548 700 867 1913 1729 3836 753 874 1964 1555 3128 1777 1082 1848 2329 1607 1975 2337 3002 3102 4801 1723 2026 4312 2205 1294 1536 707 5600 4210 3395 1724 1326 4118 1314 3514 2057 2932 3689 4116 1104 1293 1233 2504 2128 1600 928 2076 1344 3378 1962 1207 1299 567 4447 4230 1294 1451 1493 1741 6394 4324 4530 4565 4167 2054 1594 1379 1722 1055 1694 2051 401 713 2356 1282 1403 1548 1870 2921 7430 5514 1397 2012 6658 1380 2235 4414 1208 1324 1313 1337 2324 1864 1315 3139
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-06-292021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-06 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-07-162021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-10-20 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-06-142021-07-152021-10-162021-10-112021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-142021-10-192021-10-102021-08-052021-07-15 -- --2021-10-132021-07-15 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-10-18 --2021-07-152021-10-16 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-08-18 --2021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-242021-06-29 --2021-09-062021-07-152021-08-172021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-07-142021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-06 --2021-07-152021-07-132021-07-142021-07-072021-07-152021-08-312021-07-152021-07-152021-07-162021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-172021-07-15 -- -- --2021-07-132021-08-23 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-10-142021-09-022021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-052021-08-312021-10-122021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-222021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-14 --2021-07-152021-07-162021-07-14 --2021-07-082021-07-162021-07-152021-07-29 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-06-292021-08-182021-07-182021-07-132021-10-182021-09-18 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-142021-09-02 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-122021-09-15 --2021-07-142021-07-122021-07-15 --2021-10-20 --2021-09-032021-08-172021-07-152021-07-11 -- --2021-08-302021-09-29 --2021-10-182021-07-142021-07-142021-07-14 --2021-07-142021-08-032021-07-152021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-06-29 -- --2021-06-29 --2021-07-15 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192021-06-152021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-07-152021-07-072021-07-15 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-09-012021-08-17 -- --2021-07-162021-07-15 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-17 -- --2021-10-042021-08-312021-10-182021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-062021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-10-14 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142021-07-13 --2021-10-172021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-10-182021-07-152021-07-01 --2021-08-182021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-10-192021-08-192021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-08-172021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-07-162021-07-142021-07-152021-10-182021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-112021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-14 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-172021-10-19 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-142021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-162021-07-13
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 138 105 89 5 97 127 119 68 260 292 70 139 152 171 287 379 176 1015 124 165 126 76 217 310 123 489 110 176 68 218 621 258 94 72 106 74 160 249 177 72 158 414 126 101 227 67 169 227 269 243 82 80 125 135 567 69 142 134 802 655 376 53 99 229 122 140 92 86 64 202 400 269 137 188 133 51 139 183 122 100 65 157 327 61 22 105 58 110 130 185 91 171 421 67 66 89 289 122 941 88 60 63 144 163 229 90 156 152 64 146 59 151 87 82 90 203 219 94 84 75 136 159 64 189 138 71 268 316 301 117 719 51 213 84 99 120 41 47 448 96 169 46 181 72 72 101 303 115 49 31 184 116 384 105 190 164 83 94 256 621 176 318 242 77 102 368 87 264 158 272 143 118 417 333 114 289 268 42 140 67 228 75 77 49 116 80 253 115 78 136 96 524 185 277 220 118 53 414 90 85 470 144 70 77 101 106 320 200 152 243 70 131 87 104 91 243 339 240 213 446 57 145 100 344 219 84 139 160 114 108 150 92 78 105 145 134 61 226 286 64 79 370 171 313 195 144 73 70 99 102 193 70 158 90 207 74 138 380 676 149 114 63 117 128 79 138
Low between peaks 83 88 16 37 14 2 28 49 15 128 25 51 179 71 41 32 75 22 83 100 38 32 68 108 73 35 58 194 21 92 25 129 119 31 54 157 19 143 112 49 43 41 32 63 128 56 26 66 23 49 57 36 30 35 25 23 49 80 67 199 199 30 76 32 54 75 32 38 41 33 59 99 26 30 51 30 138 74 66 43 51 164 48 30 32 24 2 70 54 95 53 39 68 128 83 42 112 50 51 19 51 68 113 61 56 35 33 91 40 34 111 42 94 56 65 49 36 48 43 118 24 64 85 33 58 29 72 125 31 36 94 86 69 36 31 47 87 17 37 81 58 112 69 52

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-01-02 to 2022-01-08

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-01-01 30472 30722 10460 18845 25410 15270 29559 27454 10356 46132 27595 27364 25525 38446 13966 48709 78932 57915 15380 43375 31345 24371 35679 37804 73475 55327 227566 23109 38531 30825 15349 16663 64069 12755 79953 24113 111318 30084 21050 67024 18074 31147 55673 98978 21531 69071 20687 22206 23616 22038 44731 38590 43428 21485 44093 21554 26893 76298 21156 33550 20570 27972 58111 8871 39553 39089 19346 29631 76291 71458 20863 19291 18502 26527 84985 9723 39071 1918 18826 14362 16811 84920 12890 109515 69690 10158 24411 81721 31496 22726 26930 16470 18381 53550 11816 38038 68759 57000 19445 68190 19428 27149 75729 23415 13854 21603 21767 19503 31218 22242 16523 17106 19565 63146 24681 34846 18118 26507 8533 29436 66277 29974 17146 24049 22051 28503 19562 16812 25014 58758 29066 19281 12734 16257 43067 26583 127583 23784 15518 24239 17554 59723 27030 19911 59665 31463 15120 40719 18987 55105 20996 30541 50638 18441 21319 16791 22552 61257 27908 22932 18405 23859 63504 23344 23428 60335 32114 19554 13603 25012 10574 22669 46715 27970 21095 22742 55889 36471 88051 40000 74522 28283 174832 81258 16780 63009 21483 20413 28417 116354 48296 34725 11956 10068 132993 23848 60386 9834 18996 14962 45016 12515 14378 28496 34125 25679 32753 16116 58235 15935 14611 9931 32384 27060 24585 66007 25754 74375 32123 38374 23316 14933 20261 33401 24960 20592 75674 31741 11566 36773 46625 13460 21231 46818 61370 24662 74666 28390 13198 55268 1342 29364 18652 20504 19949 43061 48574 43107 18917 33182 32837 68830 29906 17859 32575 37313 54147 14430 39611 8654 52985 18806 16695 14015 60535 22761 16669 25880 20054 6728 8415 65175 72717 18508 14148 20652 63626 18226 23802 117356 1350 54133 32734 45628 22354 17703 14531 26786 22134 55610 12596 15432 26135 16168 64548 21157 17651 25127 25072 25028 22906 33497 49415 39800 66814 22043 31533 44308 27208 19031 18296 15328 67974 44322 54392 22234 18585 59691 18206 46266 29427 51341 41388 53507 17353 18224 19994 36705 27131 23431 15158 25534 19829 42744 25823 22692 20153 10071 69636 56890 22111 17441 27485 22748 75920 58934 60209 74276 49970 27461 21397 22475 26120 15729 24774 26637 7705 18395 24551 17015 34204 18232 25894 42653 78974 82165 22266 29856 68029 20573 32246 56542 18853 18584 28116 20794 35101 22606 17740 38221
2022-01-02 30630 30800 10500 19070 25680 15320 29640 27510 10490 46240 27850 27590 25810 38610 13970 49070 79760 58290 15540 43820 31730 24560 35960 38140 73670 56010 229800 23210 38750 31150 15410 16890 64070 12860 79950 24340 112100 30080 21290 67410 18300 31200 55760 99200 22010 69950 20800 22210 23620 22300 45170 38690 44030 21690 44720 21780 26900 76500 21220 33640 20870 28050 58500 8897 39980 39630 19500 29740 77270 72080 21180 19530 18540 26770 85220 9742 39130 1931 18900 14580 16890 84990 12890 109500 70540 10250 24630 82690 31690 22910 27110 16500 18400 54370 11970 38220 69630 57520 19620 69200 19470 27270 76420 23430 13850 21640 21830 19500 31480 22470 16560 17280 19570 63680 24960 35330 18320 26740 8591 29580 66750 30210 17390 24350 22300 28550 19780 16810 25100 58920 29140 19440 12810 16260 43070 26790 127600 23780 15640 24540 17740 60600 27280 19990 60410 31930 15230 41170 18990 55740 21270 30770 51120 18610 21560 16790 22730 61710 28220 23020 18720 23950 63850 23790 23650 60490 32610 19630 13670 25010 10610 22750 47280 28180 21320 23020 55890 36880 89100 40560 75430 28480 175700 82140 16800 63540 21760 20640 28490 118300 48890 34730 12090 10190 133400 24130 60980 9860 19140 15000 45690 12620 14380 28800 34210 25700 33070 16150 58780 16090 14650 9980 32460 27360 24920 66680 26080 75050 32270 38510 23320 15000 20500 33790 24960 20730 75820 32140 11730 36950 46880 13570 21400 47300 61900 24710 75020 28830 13280 55400 1351 29360 18700 20500 19990 43440 48840 43370 18990 33330 32840 70200 30260 18050 32640 37330 54310 14430 40020 8714 53020 19020 16910 14040 61090 23050 16850 25900 20120 6795 8532 65870 73490 18630 14180 20650 63860 18360 23830 118300 1361 54590 33020 45940 22520 17700 14680 26790 22380 56080 12690 15580 26420 16450 64680 21540 17790 25200 25070 25210 23240 33650 49420 40160 67390 22330 31640 44820 27600 19230 18300 15360 68710 44790 54980 22230 18810 60130 18270 46660 29730 51480 41820 54010 17390 18360 20170 37030 27490 23430 15310 25840 20010 43080 25820 22870 20300 10140 70370 57540 22270 17640 27570 22750 76500 58930 60210 75160 50750 27650 21480 22580 26120 15730 24770 26970 7710 18410 24650 17170 34300 18320 26040 42990 79770 82190 22480 29860 69170 20710 32250 57190 19080 18580 28170 20920 35140 22980 17980 38500
2022-01-03 30740 30860 10580 19300 25990 15390 29690 27570 10610 46330 28070 27840 26130 38940 14060 49650 80780 58660 15660 44350 32140 24620 36320 38530 73930 56800 232400 23430 39150 31370 15450 17060 64310 12960 80110 24620 113200 30140 21510 68170 18540 31260 56170 99800 22310 70920 20960 22230 23620 22560 45700 38790 44540 21930 46030 22030 27030 76800 21240 33740 21170 28090 59050 8928 40500 40260 19620 29980 78280 72830 21470 19780 18700 26990 85410 9759 39430 1955 18950 14750 17010 85530 12950 109900 71240 10340 24960 83800 31990 23120 27370 16640 18450 54970 12130 38260 70400 58100 19810 70060 19500 27380 77380 23500 13860 21820 21880 19620 31900 22700 16590 17440 19590 64210 25170 35750 18520 27050 8641 29820 67570 30530 17610 24730 22540 28600 20000 16810 25190 59120 29200 19640 12820 16260 43260 27090 127800 23880 15710 24850 17920 61580 27610 20080 61920 32330 15420 41910 19120 56890 21500 31080 51750 18680 21810 16790 22950 62400 28480 23210 18960 24010 64340 24170 23930 61000 33020 19790 13730 25030 10640 22850 48310 28520 21560 23280 56260 37400 90070 41010 77140 28760 177300 83080 16920 64230 21990 20860 28580 119900 49340 34790 12260 10310 134500 24370 61730 9960 19260 15040 46390 12730 14430 29160 34270 25720 33400 16180 59310 16270 14690 10030 32530 27720 25250 67290 26380 75930 32420 38640 23360 15000 20690 34130 25120 20970 75940 32490 11890 36950 47350 13700 21650 47750 62530 24900 75640 29170 13390 55750 1363 29510 18770 20600 20010 43900 48840 43770 19060 33540 33040 71030 30610 18220 32860 37480 54500 14440 40540 8804 53350 19270 17090 14130 61840 23290 17060 26050 20310 6872 8670 66830 74170 18710 14210 20650 64330 18640 23960 119800 1372 55280 33280 46390 22590 17720 14840 26930 22680 56500 12780 15700 26730 16700 64780 21870 17940 25420 25100 25430 23540 33880 49470 40630 68490 22630 31880 45250 27950 19440 18300 15420 69680 45200 55440 22440 19000 60650 18440 47170 30110 51590 42320 54620 17550 18570 20320 37440 27810 23490 15470 26140 20250 43590 25880 23070 20390 10240 71810 58290 22470 17900 27650 22840 77300 59170 60340 76890 51510 27920 21700 22790 26200 15740 24930 27360 7748 18460 24860 17340 34400 18590 26360 43540 80700 82630 22740 30050 70100 20910 32440 57790 19300 18610 28260 21090 35370 23270 18210 38950
2022-01-04 30870 30920 10660 19540 26290 15460 29750 27650 10730 46420 28310 28080 26450 39320 14240 50260 81820 59260 15800 44930 32560 24740 36710 38950 74140 57630 235000 23720 39520 31640 15500 17260 64720 13050 80500 24910 114700 30310 21760 68920 18790 31330 56720 100600 22680 71910 21130 22340 23670 22820 46230 38880 45050 22170 47050 22270 27300 77010 21310 33800 21480 28190 59630 8952 41100 40870 19760 30280 79350 73620 21790 20040 18860 27230 85590 9775 39780 1974 18980 14950 17190 86080 13030 110400 72010 10430 25250 84930 32340 23330 27700 16810 18470 55650 12290 38420 71190 58740 20030 70950 19530 27500 78300 23580 13910 22000 21920 19810 32350 22930 16610 17610 19620 64800 25380 36210 18750 27370 8695 30080 68390 30910 17850 25080 22790 28630 20210 16820 25270 59310 29260 19860 12860 16300 43460 27410 128000 24000 15810 25170 18110 62490 27910 20180 63070 32730 15580 42520 19260 57810 21750 31430 52350 18800 22060 16790 23160 63200 28760 23420 19190 24050 64830 24550 24220 61550 33480 20010 13770 25120 10670 22950 49130 28800 21780 23540 56730 37860 90980 41490 78510 29080 179200 83980 17060 64900 22250 21080 28650 121600 49780 34950 12440 10420 135700 24650 62470 10070 19390 15070 47050 12840 14520 29490 34330 25750 33730 16200 59960 16430 14730 10080 32600 28070 25610 67980 26670 76770 32560 38750 23450 15000 20910 34490 25330 21230 76070 32850 12050 36960 47910 13830 21910 48250 63130 25150 76380 29530 13520 56130 1374 29700 18820 20740 20040 44320 48860 44190 19110 33790 33320 71910 30970 18420 33130 37650 54670 14460 41000 8912 53720 19540 17270 14230 62630 23540 17260 26260 20480 6943 8800 67800 74850 18820 14250 20660 64860 18900 24140 121300 1383 56020 33550 46830 22710 17720 15030 27110 22950 56960 12870 15830 27040 16950 64870 22210 18090 25660 25190 25670 23850 34130 49620 41140 69360 22940 32100 45740 28330 19650 18330 15460 70670 45690 55950 22620 19210 61070 18640 47710 30450 51700 42780 55210 17700 18780 20490 37910 28130 23630 15640 26470 20470 44070 25970 23310 20420 10340 72940 59030 22680 18140 27720 22990 78060 59440 60660 78250 52250 28250 21930 23010 26340 15840 25120 27730 7805 18510 25100 17520 34480 18860 26630 44000 81570 83220 22970 30310 71080 21150 32680 58410 19560 18680 28300 21310 35710 23520 18460 39410
2022-01-05 31010 30990 10750 19760 26570 15500 29810 27650 10800 46530 28580 28310 26800 39750 14470 51000 82920 59500 15980 45570 32980 24900 37100 39430 74330 58530 238100 24010 39910 31910 15550 17490 65200 13160 81030 25270 115700 30640 22010 69840 19040 31470 57600 101500 23100 73090 21330 22520 23870 23070 46730 38960 45640 22430 47900 22500 27710 77230 21390 33850 21810 28260 60330 8974 41710 41430 19900 30670 80580 74330 22160 20300 19040 27480 85760 9792 40360 1990 19040 15160 17390 86780 13160 110800 72900 10560 25600 86310 32700 23570 28080 17010 18550 56470 12450 38550 72090 59480 20270 71880 19560 27560 79430 23630 13970 22210 21970 20040 32850 23160 16640 17830 19650 65540 25680 36840 18980 27680 8752 30350 69410 31350 18080 25410 23030 28680 20450 16900 25360 59480 29340 20100 12920 16390 43740 27800 128400 24130 15910 25500 18300 63480 28180 20210 64010 33220 15790 43060 19420 58600 22190 31830 52990 18940 22300 16860 23410 64150 29090 23660 19500 24200 65430 25000 24500 62260 34010 20160 13820 25280 10700 23080 49830 29050 22020 23850 57280 38350 91980 42040 79680 29420 181300 84910 17280 65820 22500 21350 28720 123400 50340 35130 12630 10550 137200 24960 63280 10200 19530 15100 47740 12970 14680 29820 34400 25790 34050 16230 60600 16670 14770 10130 32660 28400 25990 68680 26990 77900 32690 38870 23510 15000 21150 34900 25620 21540 76200 33330 12260 37080 48390 13980 22250 48790 63720 25420 77200 29980 13690 56550 1385 29980 18870 20900 20070 44730 49020 44620 19160 34040 33720 72820 31330 18650 33470 37690 54830 14560 41520 8998 54200 19840 17470 14340 63480 23850 17460 26490 20660 7012 8924 68790 75700 18940 14320 20740 65330 19230 24420 122800 1394 56800 33860 47330 22850 17780 15230 27290 23220 57420 12970 16000 27340 17210 64960 22570 18240 26040 25320 25900 24200 34370 49870 41690 70120 23260 32420 46290 28720 19850 18470 15480 71710 46170 56600 22900 19430 61520 18870 48290 30790 51830 43240 55920 17880 19020 20660 38360 28530 23810 15790 26810 20710 44760 26160 23540 20490 10440 73900 59880 22990 18420 27780 23200 79200 60020 61140 79390 52990 28600 22210 23250 26600 15930 25360 28080 7862 18600 25360 17710 34560 19170 26980 44410 82430 84010 23260 30640 72240 21380 33050 59200 19780 18820 28320 21530 36090 23780 18740 40000
2022-01-06 31110 31060 10860 20000 26850 15580 29880 27740 10840 46640 28840 28550 27110 40090 14650 51590 83850 59870 16180 46120 33360 25050 37480 39870 74530 59340 240300 24280 40350 32190 15600 17710 65760 13250 81590 25670 116800 30640 22260 70540 19250 31580 58230 102400 23440 74020 21510 22770 23910 23350 47230 39050 46200 22660 48700 22730 27960 77660 21470 33970 22100 28370 60950 8996 42290 41950 20050 30970 81650 75040 22500 20560 19170 27730 85940 9809 40840 2006 19110 15380 17550 87600 13260 111200 73780 10650 25890 87420 33100 23790 28370 17190 18610 57180 12620 38720 72860 60140 20480 72750 19600 27680 80300 23660 14050 22410 22020 20260 33270 23380 16670 18050 19720 66200 25890 37290 19190 27990 8809 30640 70200 31680 18300 25740 23290 28720 20710 16980 25440 59650 29400 20220 12980 16460 44100 28140 128500 24320 16020 25820 18490 64290 28440 20260 64900 33650 16010 43590 19600 59360 22300 32200 53720 19080 22540 16940 23640 64930 29380 23930 19740 24270 65900 25350 24730 62810 34420 20380 13830 25420 10740 23170 50510 29290 22250 24150 57790 38790 93010 42540 80800 29810 183000 85840 17470 66520 22750 21590 28790 125100 50900 35360 12770 10670 138300 25220 63960 10330 19670 15130 48350 13090 14780 30140 34470 25860 34370 16260 61220 16840 14800 10180 32740 28730 26380 69450 27240 78790 32820 38990 23520 15000 21370 35280 25850 21740 76340 33720 12410 37200 49030 14140 22530 49250 64350 25680 78020 30390 13840 56910 1395 30220 18920 21090 20110 45130 49200 44980 19220 34340 34070 73790 31700 18850 33740 37840 54990 14640 42040 9115 54550 20100 17670 14450 64100 24140 17670 26750 20850 7080 9048 69510 76430 19060 14380 20840 65800 19510 24630 123900 1406 57440 34150 47840 23000 17820 15470 27460 23490 57890 13060 16130 27640 17470 65050 22910 18390 26280 25510 26140 24470 34660 50190 42260 70850 23590 32680 46780 29090 20050 18590 15510 72570 46620 57040 23100 19640 61970 19090 48790 31110 51960 43700 56570 18000 19240 20840 38830 28880 23960 15950 27180 20930 45310 26270 23770 20610 10520 74820 60560 23220 18630 27860 23390 80260 60400 61350 80480 53620 28960 22450 23500 26700 16040 25580 28430 7924 18640 25590 17870 34640 19410 27310 44800 83290 84660 23480 30880 73100 21620 33320 59820 19960 18900 28360 21740 36510 24010 18970 40420
2022-01-07 31140 31130 10930 20210 27130 15600 29950 27780 10860 46750 29040 28780 27330 40370 14740 52070 84620 60280 16290 46560 33640 25230 37830 40220 74710 59970 242100 24520 40660 32450 15660 17850 66210 13350 81950 25880 117700 30640 22470 71090 19420 31620 58760 103000 23700 74640 21660 22860 23990 23580 47670 39130 46630 22830 49420 22960 28200 77780 21570 34020 22350 28420 61490 9017 42790 42390 20200 31210 82600 75600 22750 20750 19280 27980 86110 9827 41200 2020 19150 15600 17660 88340 13360 111600 74310 10730 26130 88210 33320 23960 28570 17330 18630 57660 12720 38820 73580 60670 20630 73470 19630 27740 81050 23710 14090 22600 22070 20430 33590 23600 16700 18190 19730 66810 26070 37710 19340 28230 8868 30800 70870 31970 18450 26070 23500 28760 20890 17040 25520 59820 29440 20380 13040 16560 44340 28450 128500 24480 16140 26060 18680 64860 28700 20300 65690 34040 16160 44070 19730 60050 22420 32490 54220 19240 22780 17000 23810 65560 29630 24100 19910 24310 66320 25600 24970 63250 34800 20580 13850 25500 10770 23260 51120 29510 22440 24430 58180 39080 93920 42970 81820 30090 184400 86490 17640 66860 22920 21770 28860 126400 51260 35450 12890 10780 139200 25410 64530 10430 19820 15160 48770 13200 14880 30460 34540 25880 34680 16290 61640 17010 14840 10230 32810 29050 26610 70130 27490 79410 32950 39110 23520 15050 21560 35630 26030 21890 76480 34080 12560 37360 49530 14240 22710 49620 64950 25910 78580 30690 13960 57130 1406 30380 18970 21260 20150 45530 49430 45280 19250 34530 34340 74310 32070 19000 33940 37890 55150 14720 42380 9218 54870 20320 17830 14570 64680 24340 17840 26930 21020 7147 9170 70210 77030 19190 14390 20930 66250 19730 24750 124900 1418 57990 34360 48230 23160 17820 15630 27590 23750 58360 13160 16240 27930 17660 65140 23140 18530 26530 25660 26370 24740 34930 50380 42700 71510 23820 32820 47150 29390 20240 18620 15530 73390 47000 57500 23280 19870 62440 19260 49190 31440 52090 44160 57100 18130 19420 21010 39250 29110 24040 16110 27490 21120 45760 26330 23980 20670 10590 75660 61150 23380 18830 27910 23520 81210 60630 61470 81470 54200 29230 22650 23700 26840 16100 25710 28770 7992 18670 25850 18050 34720 19600 27510 45170 84140 85110 23650 31050 73960 21800 33540 60490 20160 18980 28390 21930 36800 24250 19150 40790
2022-01-08 31150 31200 11000 20390 27410 15600 30030 27830 10880 46870 29210 29010 27490 40660 14850 52370 85030 60790 16430 46860 33900 25420 38080 40430 74890 60370 243300 24760 40960 32650 15710 17990 66520 13410 82380 26010 118400 30740 22620 71580 19510 31660 59070 103600 23800 75040 21810 23010 24190 23760 47900 39210 47000 22970 50120 23200 28350 77860 21660 34060 22500 28490 61950 9037 43140 42640 20350 31390 83130 76200 22980 20860 19390 28250 86290 9846 41430 2034 19180 15840 17750 88830 13440 112800 74880 10800 26310 88690 33530 24110 28750 17430 18650 58080 12810 38930 74190 61040 20760 74060 19670 27740 81540 23730 14180 22780 22120 20550 33800 23830 16720 18310 19740 67270 26220 37900 19450 28430 8927 30960 71300 32140 18540 26390 23620 28800 21030 17150 25610 59990 29480 20510 13110 16690 44670 28660 128500 24650 16260 26200 18870 65190 28950 20300 66440 34270 16260 44550 19910 60720 22470 32690 54540 19410 23020 17100 23950 65940 29840 24250 20050 24340 66750 25780 25140 63660 35110 20770 13860 25680 10810 23330 51720 29730 22620 24580 58720 39280 94660 43320 82810 30300 185600 87100 17710 67320 22990 21940 28920 127500 51610 35650 12980 10840 140000 25580 64960 10500 19970 15190 49040 13270 14980 30780 34610 25910 35000 16310 62010 17110 14880 10280 32890 29370 26760 70600 27690 79800 33080 39220 23530 15110 21760 35900 26190 22100 76610 34370 12680 37520 49990 14350 22870 49870 65540 26100 78940 30960 14070 57400 1416 30550 19010 21410 20190 45920 49680 45540 19270 34770 34510 74590 32440 19130 34160 37920 55310 14850 42630 9268 55100 20470 17900 14660 65190 24550 17920 27110 21160 7213 9291 70610 77580 19320 14400 21040 66740 19930 24890 125800 1429 58460 34550 48530 23330 17820 15690 27780 24000 58850 13260 16330 28220 17810 65230 23290 18680 26690 25880 26540 24960 35180 50650 42920 72160 23980 33020 47590 29660 20440 18750 15550 73860 47430 57900 23530 20100 62890 19380 49560 31760 52240 44620 57420 18200 19540 21190 39520 29330 24200 16190 27710 21220 46060 26510 24090 20680 10640 76460 61540 23480 18950 27940 23690 81830 61350 61860 82410 54630 29420 22780 23820 26980 16150 25840 29110 8023 18670 26070 18200 34790 19760 27660 45540 85000 85700 23790 31220 74620 21920 33760 60840 20270 19090 28410 22080 36970 24500 19270 41100

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-01-02 to 2022-01-08

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-01-01 30472 30722 10460 18845 25410 15270 29559 27454 10356 46132 27595 27364 25525 38446 13966 48709 78932 57915 15380 43375 31345 24371 35679 37804 73475 55327 227566 23109 38531 30825 15349 16663 64069 12755 79953 24113 111318 30084 21050 67024 18074 31147 55673 98978 21531 69071 20687 22206 23616 22038 44731 38590 43428 21485 44093 21554 26893 76298 21156 33550 20570 27972 58111 8871 39553 39089 19346 29631 76291 71458 20863 19291 18502 26527 84985 9723 39071 1918 18826 14362 16811 84920 12890 109515 69690 10158 24411 81721 31496 22726 26930 16470 18381 53550 11816 38038 68759 57000 19445 68190 19428 27149 75729 23415 13854 21603 21767 19503 31218 22242 16523 17106 19565 63146 24681 34846 18118 26507 8533 29436 66277 29974 17146 24049 22051 28503 19562 16812 25014 58758 29066 19281 12734 16257 43067 26583 127583 23784 15518 24239 17554 59723 27030 19911 59665 31463 15120 40719 18987 55105 20996 30541 50638 18441 21319 16791 22552 61257 27908 22932 18405 23859 63504 23344 23428 60335 32114 19554 13603 25012 10574 22669 46715 27970 21095 22742 55889 36471 88051 40000 74522 28283 174832 81258 16780 63009 21483 20413 28417 116354 48296 34725 11956 10068 132993 23848 60386 9834 18996 14962 45016 12515 14378 28496 34125 25679 32753 16116 58235 15935 14611 9931 32384 27060 24585 66007 25754 74375 32123 38374 23316 14933 20261 33401 24960 20592 75674 31741 11566 36773 46625 13460 21231 46818 61370 24662 74666 28390 13198 55268 1342 29364 18652 20504 19949 43061 48574 43107 18917 33182 32837 68830 29906 17859 32575 37313 54147 14430 39611 8654 52985 18806 16695 14015 60535 22761 16669 25880 20054 6728 8415 65175 72717 18508 14148 20652 63626 18226 23802 117356 1350 54133 32734 45628 22354 17703 14531 26786 22134 55610 12596 15432 26135 16168 64548 21157 17651 25127 25072 25028 22906 33497 49415 39800 66814 22043 31533 44308 27208 19031 18296 15328 67974 44322 54392 22234 18585 59691 18206 46266 29427 51341 41388 53507 17353 18224 19994 36705 27131 23431 15158 25534 19829 42744 25823 22692 20153 10071 69636 56890 22111 17441 27485 22748 75920 58934 60209 74276 49970 27461 21397 22475 26120 15729 24774 26637 7705 18395 24551 17015 34204 18232 25894 42653 78974 82165 22266 29856 68029 20573 32246 56542 18853 18584 28116 20794 35101 22606 17740 38221
2022-01-02 30510 30750 10540 19110 25640 15310 29610 27520 10400 46190 27780 27620 25710 38760 14100 49220 79640 58560 15560 43800 31690 24600 36000 38070 73580 55970 229300 23360 38850 31150 15380 16800 64630 12830 80500 24360 112200 30410 21240 67500 18230 31240 55900 99700 21820 69690 20860 22370 23820 22280 45020 38710 43760 21660 44470 21770 27100 76430 21390 33600 20760 28010 58550 8926 39950 39480 19520 29920 76960 72220 21100 19450 18630 26850 84960 9760 39340 1927 18890 14620 16940 85520 13000 110500 70290 10260 24640 82470 31740 22900 27140 16600 18420 54010 11910 38290 69500 57470 19630 68910 19500 27170 76410 23480 13980 21760 21800 19620 31490 22450 16560 17240 19540 63880 24860 35260 18270 26760 8609 29660 66650 30270 17310 24280 22230 28560 19750 16950 25160 58860 29130 19440 12840 16430 43460 26850 127700 23950 15640 24460 17740 60370 27280 20010 60140 31960 15280 41120 19170 55640 21250 30820 51130 18560 21530 16910 22740 61840 28170 23150 18570 23910 64030 23620 23670 60830 32470 19760 13620 25190 10620 22800 47250 28220 21320 22930 56420 36770 88930 40460 75240 28600 176300 81880 16900 63640 21670 20590 28460 117600 48660 34900 12080 10150 133800 24040 60910 9930 19140 14970 45430 12610 14500 28800 34220 25710 33140 16150 58710 16070 14640 9950 32430 27320 24780 66620 25980 74950 32210 38410 23360 15050 20520 33720 25160 20810 75780 32100 11710 37090 47180 13570 21420 47160 62190 24870 75110 28730 13310 55740 1358 29570 18700 20670 19980 43380 48930 43390 18990 33450 32990 69500 30300 18020 32790 37390 54160 14590 39900 8739 53450 19040 16860 14110 61220 22970 16840 26100 20220 6798 8518 65650 73280 18660 14190 20800 64450 18440 24010 118600 1355 54730 32980 46010 22570 17760 14630 26970 22340 56120 12690 15540 26390 16360 64590 21420 17770 25310 25360 25230 23180 33810 49780 40130 67540 22260 31760 44740 27500 19180 18410 15330 68480 44880 54850 22440 18750 60320 18330 46730 29650 51410 41900 53810 17490 18390 20170 37060 27390 23600 15290 25830 19980 43140 26000 22850 20230 10140 70350 57240 22250 17630 27560 22930 76750 59380 60690 75020 50500 27720 21560 22630 26280 15840 24920 26930 7753 18480 24870 17200 34240 18420 26110 43080 79910 82850 22460 29990 68870 20720 32460 57130 19040 18720 28160 20990 35250 22920 17920 38630
2022-01-03 30750 30960 10650 19400 25910 15420 29860 27740 10500 46450 28000 27960 25960 39200 14290 49920 80670 59260 15770 44390 32140 24840 36380 38470 74000 56800 231700 23640 39220 31480 15490 16970 65330 12930 81200 24770 113200 30840 21490 68500 18480 31560 56450 100800 22170 70720 21100 22670 24090 22550 45510 39040 44160 21900 45290 22020 27340 77340 21620 33800 21020 28220 59220 9026 40430 40020 19720 30290 77800 73300 21410 19660 18860 27180 85910 9860 39820 1946 19180 14880 17100 86240 13130 111500 71140 10370 24930 83650 32220 23100 27470 16770 18580 54720 12040 38880 70240 58050 19840 69680 19640 27370 77430 23660 14110 21950 21930 19810 31960 22670 16740 17400 19720 64560 25080 35860 18450 27080 8682 30030 67490 30680 17540 24610 22410 28770 19960 17090 25570 59130 29340 19640 12950 16600 43940 27180 128500 24130 15750 24780 17960 61350 27600 20260 61030 32500 15460 41760 19400 56570 21560 31150 51870 18710 21760 17030 22980 62690 28450 23480 18810 24040 64780 23910 23960 61600 32890 19970 13700 25460 10690 22950 48100 28670 21560 23190 56950 37310 89870 40980 76750 28960 178000 82710 17070 64740 21950 20780 28670 119400 49140 35250 12270 10250 135400 24270 61720 10050 19290 15060 46130 12700 14670 29180 34420 25810 33520 16260 59330 16250 14750 10020 32670 27640 25030 67220 26260 75930 32480 38700 23590 15150 20870 34140 25470 21070 76250 32450 11870 37410 47710 13720 21690 47570 62950 25210 75880 29170 13440 56390 1394 29850 18910 20860 20110 43820 49270 43740 19200 33780 33270 70490 30650 18230 33160 37660 54580 14750 40460 8816 54000 19330 17040 14240 61940 23250 17090 26390 20450 6878 8631 66550 74060 18830 14290 20940 65240 18680 24280 120100 1368 55380 33280 46480 22770 17950 14770 27260 22600 56710 12780 15670 26700 16650 65020 21750 17940 25580 25680 25430 23480 34120 50250 40620 68900 22530 32160 45240 27830 19350 18630 15400 69490 45420 55350 22690 18920 60900 18540 47400 29930 51790 42430 54520 17670 18620 20350 37430 27730 23830 15420 26130 20240 43760 26330 23020 20410 10210 71480 57960 22490 17910 27750 23180 77680 59860 61520 76400 51300 28030 21850 22860 26490 15970 25210 27270 7796 18600 25180 17380 34540 18680 26460 43800 81000 83650 22720 30320 69880 20950 32820 57670 19250 18920 28390 21190 35570 23200 18120 39140
2022-01-04 30950 31120 10760 19700 26190 15520 30110 28030 10610 46810 28230 28320 26210 39660 14520 50600 81660 60050 16030 44990 32590 25080 36760 38880 74550 57640 233900 23940 39580 31860 15600 17140 66040 13020 81970 25120 114400 31330 21750 69420 18730 31920 57040 101800 22520 71740 21360 22970 24370 22800 46020 39390 44570 22140 45970 22280 27650 78040 21840 33930 21300 28430 59940 9125 40970 40570 19920 30650 78900 74270 21760 19870 19070 27550 86890 9930 40250 1964 19380 15160 17280 86960 13270 112500 72040 10480 25210 84850 32630 23320 27850 16950 18770 55560 12180 39330 71040 58660 20100 70440 19830 27610 78390 23850 14260 22150 22070 20030 32430 22910 16900 17580 19900 65310 25300 36380 18650 27370 8767 30410 68410 31100 17770 24930 22610 28980 20160 17240 25930 59490 29520 19860 13060 16800 44410 27520 129500 24310 15880 25090 18200 62280 27890 20540 61770 33060 15620 42330 19620 57390 21890 31490 52520 18870 21980 17160 23200 63550 28720 23770 19060 24200 65550 24210 24250 62320 33350 20210 13800 25760 10820 23130 48840 29050 21800 23460 57540 37780 90790 41440 78030 29330 180000 83590 17230 65720 22260 20980 28920 121400 49580 35620 12450 10350 137100 24540 62530 10180 19450 15160 46800 12780 14840 29550 34680 25960 33920 16360 60070 16420 14850 10120 32900 27960 25320 67830 26530 76830 32740 39050 23830 15260 21180 34560 25790 21360 76750 32790 12030 37750 48260 13870 21960 48020 63710 25580 76700 29580 13570 57080 1414 30130 19080 21070 20260 44300 49660 44150 19370 34160 33590 71350 31010 18460 33570 37940 55020 14920 40930 8906 54650 19630 17220 14360 62730 23550 17320 26710 20680 6956 8759 67520 74920 19000 14430 21100 66160 18910 24560 121800 1382 56070 33560 46940 22980 18120 14920 27560 22870 57320 12870 15800 27000 16950 65450 22090 18120 25850 26040 25650 23800 34460 50700 41140 70060 22830 32520 45730 28220 19510 18870 15500 70520 45990 55880 22940 19100 61470 18760 48050 30230 52110 42950 55140 17850 18850 20530 37830 28070 24120 15560 26470 20470 44280 26640 23210 20560 10280 72460 58730 22720 18170 27950 23460 78560 60370 62390 77570 52070 28360 22090 23080 26740 16140 25500 27620 7847 18790 25560 17590 34900 18940 26760 44410 82120 84500 22970 30670 71050 21200 33190 58280 19490 19130 28550 21410 35950 23490 18330 39660
2022-01-05 31100 31220 10900 20010 26490 15610 30350 28250 10680 47140 28490 28720 26520 40180 14800 51410 82710 60630 16290 45680 33060 25340 37150 39380 75030 58540 236800 24310 39970 32270 15710 17350 66870 13130 82910 25580 115300 31890 22030 70580 18990 32190 57950 103000 22940 72930 21610 23320 24740 23080 46540 39580 45110 22390 46610 22550 28090 78830 22100 34070 21630 28560 60780 9221 41550 41110 20130 31120 80160 75280 22080 20110 19280 27940 87350 9970 40870 1980 19610 15480 17500 87760 13410 113600 72950 10630 25530 86280 33090 23570 28270 17180 19010 56180 12340 39920 71920 59340 20380 71290 19930 27770 79530 24020 14450 22380 22210 20290 32960 23170 17020 17820 20020 66230 25610 37120 18890 27690 8864 30780 69570 31570 18000 25240 22830 29140 20390 17450 26160 59830 29730 20130 13190 17020 44900 27940 130300 24510 16030 25420 18480 63270 28200 20760 62530 33490 15850 42880 19890 58230 22350 31840 53230 19060 22220 17320 23480 64550 29030 24100 19360 24330 66400 24550 24550 63220 33890 20410 13870 26110 10940 23330 49560 29450 22060 23730 58290 38270 91870 42040 79200 29740 182300 84460 17470 66800 22570 21240 29130 122800 50150 36010 12650 10480 139000 24850 63390 10340 19620 15260 47490 12890 15080 29910 34910 26100 34300 16460 60820 16640 14960 10220 33070 28340 25640 68460 26860 78010 33010 39280 23990 15380 21370 34950 26160 21690 77220 33240 12240 38120 48860 14040 22270 48560 64560 25950 77620 29890 13760 57870 1432 30460 19230 21280 20370 44670 50090 44630 19570 34500 34010 72410 31420 18690 34020 38150 55380 15110 41450 8994 55390 19980 17430 14500 63660 23890 17550 27050 20930 7032 8899 68580 75860 19170 14520 21290 67250 19210 24890 123500 1396 56860 33850 47440 23230 18260 15110 27890 23200 57950 12990 15960 27350 17200 65790 22470 18310 26250 26400 25860 24150 34810 51230 41710 71150 23160 32930 46360 28620 19700 19160 15560 71680 46580 56560 23250 19290 62120 19010 48730 30550 52490 43490 55900 18040 19090 20730 38250 28480 24430 15690 26830 20700 45030 27040 23400 20720 10360 73420 59650 23020 18470 28170 23790 79710 61130 63360 78590 52780 28710 22390 23320 27100 16320 25810 27950 7901 18930 25990 17810 35060 19250 27150 45020 83190 85470 23280 31090 72280 21440 33650 59060 19700 19400 28700 21660 36360 23800 18580 40320
2022-01-06 31240 31330 11040 20310 26810 15720 30590 28520 10750 47350 28710 29060 26790 40600 15040 52110 83740 61200 16600 46280 33480 25580 37550 39820 75400 59530 238800 24590 40360 32640 15830 17550 67630 13220 83690 26000 116200 32230 22280 71560 19240 32470 58610 104200 23270 74140 21840 23700 24970 23350 47040 39880 45710 22650 47460 22850 28360 79320 22350 34270 21900 28760 61510 9305 42050 41630 20340 31490 81220 76210 22490 20310 19490 28280 87860 10000 41350 1996 19880 15790 17670 88540 13550 114700 73850 10740 25820 87760 33630 23780 28620 17360 19110 56870 12480 40260 72770 59970 20620 72170 20050 27890 80520 24120 14590 22580 22360 20500 33440 23370 17090 18030 20150 66880 25790 37630 19080 28010 8943 31190 70510 31980 18250 25600 23040 29300 20620 17590 26310 60110 29860 20330 13310 17230 45360 28310 131200 24720 16160 25720 18690 64280 28520 20870 63330 33920 16050 43450 20150 59210 22590 32190 53960 19240 22470 17470 23710 65480 29330 24450 19570 24430 67190 24840 24840 63980 34260 20610 13930 26450 11030 23480 50220 29970 22320 24060 58950 38790 92990 42590 80870 30180 184300 85500 17690 68060 22860 21450 29300 124300 50690 36410 12810 10590 140600 25090 64190 10490 19800 15370 48270 12980 15260 30280 35060 26200 34710 16560 61490 16830 15020 10280 33320 28610 26010 69110 27110 79140 33270 39610 24090 15480 21690 35270 26490 21940 77810 33560 12380 38460 49450 14200 22520 48950 65350 26300 78460 30320 13910 58510 1446 30760 19380 21490 20490 45160 50460 45010 19660 34860 34370 73570 31840 18860 34430 38410 55840 15300 42080 9087 55990 20280 17640 14640 64450 24170 17790 27400 21200 7109 9005 69400 76320 19350 14610 21450 68210 19490 25190 125000 1410 57450 34170 47970 23440 18330 15290 28210 23440 58520 13100 16090 27650 17500 66290 22790 18470 26510 26760 26090 24400 35150 51730 42310 72610 23500 33350 47050 28950 19840 19410 15650 72620 47170 56910 23510 19460 62710 19230 49450 30850 52890 44030 56580 18180 19340 20920 38640 28830 24690 15830 27170 20950 45650 27350 23580 20920 10430 74400 60370 23270 18730 28360 24070 80910 61650 64220 79800 53530 29070 22670 23560 27340 16490 26140 28270 7955 19040 26410 17980 35340 19500 27460 45800 84420 86350 23530 31430 73190 21710 34040 59690 19880 19590 28880 21860 36770 24070 18780 40800
2022-01-07 31410 31500 11150 20600 27100 15790 30770 28680 10830 47530 28910 29390 27040 40980 15170 52690 84630 61870 16810 46770 33880 25840 37920 40170 75790 60300 240800 24870 40720 32950 15950 17740 68320 13310 84410 26280 117100 32430 22520 72480 19470 32660 59240 105100 23600 75050 22060 23950 25250 23580 47480 40160 46170 22840 48040 23130 28610 79840 22570 34440 22100 28940 62160 9389 42520 42080 20530 31750 82170 77040 22790 20490 19660 28620 88730 10040 41830 2012 20070 16080 17810 89290 13690 115600 74580 10840 26100 88900 33980 23970 28920 17500 19200 57490 12600 40710 73420 60530 20820 72960 20200 28050 81410 24220 14700 22790 22500 20690 33840 23570 17230 18180 20330 67600 25990 38100 19250 28270 9017 31520 71370 32350 18450 25930 23220 29450 20810 17730 26500 60360 30020 20520 13420 17400 45740 28640 131700 24930 16290 25980 18880 65100 28810 21020 63980 34330 16180 43950 20300 60000 22820 32510 54640 19430 22670 17610 23920 66250 29620 24700 19770 24560 67920 25100 25100 64610 34650 20820 14030 26710 11100 23620 50840 30320 22540 24330 59360 39240 93780 43080 81900 30500 185800 86310 17850 68980 23030 21610 29460 126000 51120 36720 12950 10680 142200 25290 64870 10580 19970 15470 48940 13080 15410 30650 35190 26300 35100 16650 62080 17010 15120 10330 33560 28900 26270 69780 27310 80010 33540 39880 24250 15600 21970 35670 26770 22150 78280 33930 12520 38780 49980 14320 22770 49310 66060 26600 79170 30650 14030 59100 1459 31020 19510 21700 20600 45560 50870 45340 19750 35160 34630 74120 32200 19030 34780 38650 56300 15480 42570 9172 56430 20550 17780 14760 65020 24440 17990 27650 21370 7186 9117 70190 76800 19530 14680 21610 68810 19700 25410 126200 1425 58050 34440 48400 23670 18420 15440 28520 23680 59120 13210 16200 27910 17750 66700 23070 18630 26760 27080 26310 24660 35460 52170 42760 73600 23740 33720 47630 29270 20030 19620 15730 73610 47750 57430 23740 19650 63250 19440 50050 31160 53230 44590 57260 18300 19550 21110 39000 29130 24920 15970 27440 21160 46180 27630 23740 21110 10490 75260 61090 23490 18970 28520 24290 81720 62040 64780 80780 54200 29370 22890 23790 27520 16610 26390 28590 8006 19100 26640 18160 35530 19680 27670 46350 85570 87130 23760 31720 74110 21920 34390 60230 20070 19770 29000 22060 37100 24320 18950 41270
2022-01-08 31550 31630 11250 20900 27350 15860 30960 28870 10900 47740 29090 29620 27250 41280 15310 53030 85330 62550 17030 47140 34240 26080 38250 40430 76150 60730 242300 25100 40980 33270 16070 17870 68840 13370 84940 26510 117900 32670 22700 73110 19620 32800 59630 105800 23840 75640 22240 24190 25520 23740 47830 40430 46580 23000 48570 23400 28790 80180 22790 34550 22250 29120 62620 9468 42850 42400 20700 31990 82900 77720 23090 20610 19810 28920 89320 10090 42100 2028 20220 16350 17930 89880 13810 116600 75100 10930 26350 89560 34280 24100 29150 17600 19250 58070 12700 41000 74190 60950 20980 73730 20290 28180 82020 24320 14800 22940 22600 20810 34140 23740 17340 18320 20440 68200 26150 38450 19380 28470 9081 31810 71970 32570 18610 26260 23370 29590 20970 17860 26700 60600 30120 20680 13540 17560 46140 28890 132300 25130 16420 26200 19050 65760 29070 21160 64700 34610 16300 44420 20460 60640 23030 32790 55140 19590 22890 17730 24080 66760 29900 24940 19940 24630 68600 25350 25300 65110 34950 21010 14090 26940 11150 23710 51450 30580 22790 24540 59800 39540 94700 43460 82860 30750 187200 86910 17950 69760 23210 21770 29650 127200 51510 36990 13060 10740 143100 25480 65320 10670 20120 15560 49360 13160 15540 31020 35350 26370 35490 16730 62620 17140 15180 10380 33770 29140 26430 70280 27480 80610 33810 40150 24400 15710 22250 36020 26970 22350 78670 34250 12640 39090 50460 14420 22970 49590 66750 26850 79600 30990 14130 59580 1472 31270 19640 21870 20710 45910 51250 45590 19820 35430 34770 74780 32540 19180 35020 38810 56740 15620 42940 9243 56810 20760 17890 14850 65630 24670 18150 27870 21530 7263 9225 70790 77340 19700 14730 21750 69470 19880 25620 127300 1439 58610 34650 48810 23860 18510 15530 28740 23890 59640 13290 16290 28140 17930 67070 23330 18770 26900 27360 26540 24890 35760 52530 43070 74500 23960 33980 48280 29530 20190 19790 15790 74260 48350 57810 23950 19830 63810 19570 50580 31370 53480 45140 57750 18390 19720 21290 39320 29350 25110 16080 27660 21300 46560 27860 23860 21230 10540 76090 61600 23630 19130 28710 24490 82420 62500 65500 81730 54750 29610 23060 23960 27700 16720 26570 28890 8042 19150 26900 18300 35750 19840 27850 46840 86690 87860 23920 31900 74850 22070 34640 60640 20220 19910 29110 22200 37320 24590 19090 41630

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.