COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-01-23 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-01-23

Slideshow of forecasts 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how we lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-01-23

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-12-282021-12-28 --2022-01-022021-12-282021-12-282021-12-292021-12-282021-12-282021-12-312021-12-282021-12-292021-12-292021-12-312021-12-292021-12-272021-12-232022-01-032022-01-022021-12-262021-12-292022-01-022021-12-29 --2021-12-302021-12-212022-01-022021-12-292022-01-042021-12-292021-12-282021-12-292021-12-29 --2021-12-292021-12-292022-01-042021-12-282021-12-292021-12-282021-12-232021-12-282021-12-232021-12-282021-12-282021-12-222021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292022-01-042021-12-292021-12-282021-12-29 --2021-12-152021-12-28 --2021-12-282022-01-032021-12-292021-12-282021-12-292021-12-272021-12-292021-12-282021-12-262021-12-312021-12-282021-12-272021-12-282021-12-29 --2021-12-232021-12-292021-12-272021-12-272021-12-242021-12-282021-12-282021-12-292022-01-032021-12-292021-12-282022-01-042022-01-022021-12-292021-12-282021-12-212021-12-282022-01-042021-12-242021-12-292021-12-272021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-282021-12-292021-12-282021-12-242021-12-292021-12-29 --2021-12-27 --2021-12-272021-12-292021-12-282021-12-292021-12-282021-12-312022-01-042021-12-292021-12-292021-12-282022-01-032021-12-222021-12-262021-12-262021-12-212021-12-282022-01-192021-12-292022-01-032021-12-292021-12-292021-12-272021-12-282021-12-292022-01-022021-12-292022-01-042021-12-282021-12-282022-01-022021-12-292021-12-282021-12-282021-12-202021-12-232021-12-272021-12-152021-12-292022-01-032021-12-202021-12-282021-12-212021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-282022-01-04 --2021-12-292021-12-27 --2021-12-232021-12-282021-12-302021-12-292021-12-292021-12-262021-12-292021-12-292022-01-032021-12-292022-01-042021-12-282021-12-282021-12-152021-12-202021-12-292021-12-282022-01-032021-12-232022-01-032021-12-282021-12-212021-12-302021-12-292021-12-292021-12-262021-12-212021-12-272021-12-292021-12-272021-12-292021-12-292021-12-232021-12-27 --2021-12-292021-12-282021-12-27 --2022-01-032021-12-272021-12-232022-01-022021-12-272021-12-242021-12-312021-12-302022-01-032021-12-272021-12-282021-12-232021-12-282021-12-302021-12-292021-12-282021-12-292022-01-032021-12-292021-12-212021-12-272021-12-312021-12-292022-01-042021-12-292021-12-292021-12-232021-12-282021-12-272021-12-29 --2021-12-292022-01-032022-01-032021-12-292022-01-012022-01-042021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-282021-12-22 --2021-12-282022-01-042021-12-29 --2022-01-022021-12-292021-12-282022-01-03 --2021-12-282022-01-032021-12-292021-12-262021-12-282021-12-272021-12-302021-12-212022-01-022021-12-292021-12-272021-12-292022-01-022021-12-292021-12-272021-12-232021-12-282021-12-302021-12-292021-12-272021-12-292022-01-022022-01-042021-12-272022-01-022021-12-292021-12-292021-12-232021-12-312021-12-292021-12-282022-01-032021-12-292021-12-292021-12-28 --2021-12-262021-12-292021-12-292022-01-032022-01-192021-12-292021-12-292021-12-282021-12-282021-12-282021-12-272021-12-29 --2021-12-302022-01-052021-12-302021-12-272021-12-212021-12-272021-12-242021-12-282021-12-292022-01-012021-12-282021-12-272021-12-292021-12-292022-01-032021-12-292021-12-292022-01-042021-12-262021-12-262021-12-292021-12-292021-12-282021-12-282022-01-022021-12-27 --2022-01-202021-12-292021-12-272021-12-302021-12-292021-12-232021-12-262021-12-23 --2021-12-272022-01-042021-12-142021-12-292021-12-232021-12-272021-12-272022-01-022022-01-032022-01-042021-12-202021-12-212021-12-292021-12-292021-12-26 --2021-12-272021-12-282021-12-242021-12-292022-01-032021-12-272021-12-292021-12-292021-12-28 -- --2021-12-152021-12-292021-12-292021-12-212021-12-262021-12-29 --2021-12-262022-01-022021-12-302021-12-292021-12-282022-01-032021-12-272021-12-292022-01-042021-12-30
Peak daily increment 531 530 355 345 251 402 394 150 607 248 357 264 399 197 622 953 854 310 533 390 303 387 1050 762 2491 335 505 455 309 222 893 776 325 1296 399 241 879 215 498 661 1072 300 994 233 293 285 315 571 615 574 714 325 1111 316 518 259 439 676 183 488 474 202 363 1086 1040 374 206 412 1355 154 444 33 402 307 184 805 138 1702 874 141 295 1206 411 437 339 193 269 715 161 865 940 661 219 908 375 370 903 380 159 362 416 267 255 200 315 897 284 546 210 289 114 376 878 363 225 345 217 465 234 197 554 920 483 216 151 243 629 338 2003 258 167 272 241 927 311 321 2307 500 196 626 242 826 293 355 645 195 425 249 804 281 271 537 787 311 264 726 431 279 288 313 228 171 826 438 252 287 710 474 1214 599 1374 389 2119 918 186 1065 270 229 394 1721 500 370 159 1580 286 716 194 246 655 119 176 344 511 323 574 240 702 179 186 299 520 317 311 888 289 950 512 637 389 176 327 456 301 260 1282 441 389 758 179 270 501 1110 320 751 441 152 726 35 291 269 364 517 469 309 423 810 520 214 390 682 1018 200 545 139 696 263 201 128 862 297 203 298 219 77 129 918 860 268 269 200 1044 253 277 1592 23 734 335 518 251 305 312 286 601 130 171 321 272 1178 300 180 294 402 330 579 469 489 1187 288 384 710 361 233 235 262 973 775 616 277 198 1062 211 627 334 861 568 744 192 219 450 314 252 151 333 230 551 310 336 109 989 737 231 243 416 285 1111 781 777 1336 710 319 260 275 162 293 318 84 297 401 206 521 674 1241 886 246 336 1245 364 769 211 198 398 236 364 337 255 500
Days since peak 26 26 21 26 26 25 26 26 23 26 25 25 23 25 27 31 20 21 28 25 21 25 24 33 21 25 19 25 26 25 25 25 25 19 26 25 26 31 26 31 26 26 32 25 25 25 19 25 26 25 39 26 26 20 25 26 25 27 25 26 28 23 26 27 26 25 31 25 27 27 30 26 26 25 20 25 26 19 21 25 26 33 26 19 30 25 27 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 26 30 25 25 27 27 25 26 25 26 23 19 25 25 26 20 32 28 28 33 26 4 25 20 25 25 27 26 25 21 25 19 26 26 21 25 26 26 34 31 27 39 25 20 34 26 33 25 25 25 26 19 25 27 31 26 24 25 25 28 25 25 20 25 19 26 26 39 34 25 26 20 31 20 26 33 24 25 25 28 33 27 25 27 25 25 31 27 25 26 27 20 27 31 21 27 30 23 24 20 27 26 31 26 24 25 26 25 20 25 33 27 23 25 19 25 25 31 26 27 25 25 20 20 25 22 19 25 25 25 25 26 32 26 19 25 21 25 26 20 26 20 25 28 26 27 24 33 21 25 27 25 21 25 27 31 26 24 25 27 25 21 19 27 21 25 25 31 23 25 26 20 25 25 26 28 25 25 20 4 25 25 26 26 26 27 25 24 18 24 27 33 27 30 26 25 22 26 27 25 25 20 25 25 19 28 28 25 25 26 26 21 27 3 25 27 24 25 31 28 31 27 19 40 25 31 27 27 21 20 19 34 33 25 25 28 27 26 30 25 20 27 25 25 26 39 25 25 33 28 25 28 21 24 25 26 20 27 25 19 24
Last total 39030 38973 12676 23291 29724 19463 37309 35167 12808 58924 32309 32306 29799 46245 16950 55895 94444 70492 18686 49880 38501 29481 41786 46114 91687 63152 273405 27342 46154 37703 18213 19939 76601 15177 92622 29377 136032 35483 25491 80012 20298 36617 65793 116294 26406 80191 24707 25250 27632 26647 52810 45491 52683 27130 51962 26307 31649 88637 26249 40475 23368 34519 69269 10512 46589 45181 23269 35727 92468 86644 25051 22911 21880 32102 104141 11832 45460 2443 22744 17487 20386 99612 15205 137681 85965 12259 29022 94578 36884 28526 30903 19857 21324 63998 13842 48217 83440 67572 23458 83789 24874 32734 90623 28452 17116 25687 25896 23617 36001 26459 20363 20570 23561 76963 30281 43645 22211 31220 10349 34630 76430 34086 20072 27818 26612 35156 23483 20812 31678 73345 34017 22853 15320 19711 53588 30709 153468 28866 18379 28018 21559 68850 31552 23166 68939 37626 18746 47512 22787 63752 24783 36912 61099 21563 26765 19850 26639 70210 34450 27386 21789 31712 76478 27876 28254 72811 38813 23611 17252 30371 12756 25847 54384 33377 25418 28285 67767 42819 107640 46785 84948 33792 210703 96576 19942 72425 25794 24316 35915 135864 58068 40310 13919 12369 154701 28387 69739 11829 22287 17394 52962 14942 17597 34045 43401 32547 41422 19422 70893 18766 16901 13856 38252 31975 29025 81067 30771 85701 38299 50606 28766 18130 23941 40075 29093 24745 90558 38859 14816 44207 58375 16246 25521 57369 78301 30027 85944 35029 15702 64880 1764 35795 22021 24916 25575 53847 58255 50576 22555 40109 40166 79818 37404 21334 37864 45235 63357 16969 46951 10952 62936 21319 19612 16656 72582 28066 20172 30147 24274 8198 9930 76966 88252 22476 17331 24683 74781 21957 27493 142141 1588 65831 39523 54775 26988 21932 17148 32945 26339 65882 15207 19119 31204 20020 79822 26003 20899 30226 30173 30154 27788 42441 58260 45438 77093 26176 36795 52154 32932 22663 21518 18571 79728 55917 66026 27138 22031 75931 21763 53867 34776 60632 51006 64237 20729 21035 24250 45717 31291 27980 18231 30305 23543 48953 30440 28075 23425 12186 80647 66362 25745 20617 31524 28031 92247 72615 69231 85847 58816 33089 26067 26927 30751 18960 28827 31924 9193 22306 29369 20483 41032 22340 32413 50775 93119 97535 26613 35835 83420 25112 39551 69227 23012 22312 33125 25410 41519 27304 22244 45584
Last daily increment 131 116 98 89 112 51 428 447 26 749 226 171 178 363 125 200 564 288 54 220 344 187 237 325 849 240 1113 128 146 168 40 91 277 104 550 244 781 216 181 357 71 66 379 645 221 438 126 85 141 98 180 105 231 286 267 133 239 170 132 103 98 191 503 6 238 268 187 279 505 440 118 181 156 134 308 32 253 9 20 54 157 666 103 889 452 67 182 329 221 176 117 144 32 355 71 233 422 466 143 534 70 68 489 42 185 212 53 232 200 136 55 171 62 421 189 365 189 208 40 232 262 107 144 143 244 82 149 167 164 229 41 125 113 112 275 142 274 221 106 159 154 272 213 10 223 152 128 212 141 215 117 252 378 171 132 117 188 289 326 186 82 76 427 109 223 419 244 75 32 235 10 114 200 123 186 273 357 271 507 163 253 152 1110 398 169 276 142 132 450 403 367 231 78 115 538 126 366 105 126 35 279 140 175 238 359 373 192 53 519 131 27 49 46 205 152 374 175 223 102 526 41 135 97 214 163 160 177 255 152 310 295 72 131 467 411 199 307 154 74 194 1 331 45 117 56 490 430 234 20 164 319 300 166 139 193 81 88 53 382 66 227 87 59 138 324 199 150 147 215 48 63 236 423 137 28 184 250 149 140 762 1 396 247 292 211 51 124 315 162 443 135 153 219 111 167 240 168 252 117 240 132 205 354 191 265 165 261 153 231 123 123 33 339 298 409 196 164 360 156 271 221 55 387 282 131 110 262 312 169 205 153 185 171 178 222 241 60 125 260 240 181 103 55 250 379 385 268 370 213 248 157 288 200 124 149 213 65 39 127 158 99 218 299 207 344 730 231 277 403 250 408 313 179 198 48 213 291 133 162 301
Last week 1040 879 589 570 659 394 2075 2289 270 3616 1333 900 1042 2084 715 1220 3566 1859 433 1438 2058 1093 1330 2173 4276 1509 8574 781 1168 1002 309 530 1806 638 2991 1327 5027 1313 1084 2318 417 625 2403 3824 1330 2583 829 525 883 709 1218 828 1586 1703 1613 815 1221 1741 942 923 632 1224 2778 108 1421 1397 1070 1550 3165 2916 575 1035 940 924 2180 244 1594 59 276 385 894 3706 555 5643 3238 429 1130 2320 1248 1160 766 790 308 1922 387 1289 2607 2631 1031 3154 581 669 3048 435 967 1153 366 1161 1044 881 413 876 398 2483 1303 2126 1118 1176 336 1288 1820 724 721 600 1259 725 959 1035 984 1736 391 803 614 572 1808 795 2295 1312 691 935 931 1700 1102 262 1546 995 835 1288 876 1559 759 1458 2266 828 811 760 996 1780 1755 1038 550 736 2802 840 1350 2652 1568 561 254 1290 172 729 1532 949 1098 1529 2208 1553 3599 909 1775 984 7097 2919 856 1876 874 882 2246 2766 2344 1340 454 593 3460 823 2043 517 716 270 1744 660 822 1408 1998 1884 1232 358 3039 725 276 364 650 1175 847 2672 1044 1716 1067 3028 436 712 542 1196 955 910 1218 1346 851 1891 1924 457 847 2845 2946 1243 2033 1212 557 1335 38 1859 357 783 632 2932 2390 1623 358 1140 1921 2165 1144 772 1269 630 891 372 1971 469 1487 497 417 805 1947 1092 921 940 1114 327 288 1572 3001 777 255 1098 1604 764 927 4813 8 2515 1627 2039 1236 405 643 1889 897 2479 710 970 1131 666 1281 1271 858 1290 844 1287 919 1445 2320 1079 1813 1032 1473 1129 1248 636 677 310 1920 2006 2463 1229 927 2600 883 1682 1285 974 2351 1742 690 635 1286 2223 964 1130 913 994 949 1083 1131 1422 448 602 1873 1629 903 715 553 1425 2522 2468 1790 2271 1420 1447 1134 1371 1149 806 929 1376 367 326 822 835 708 1180 1688 1415 2127 3963 1208 1577 2373 1383 2213 2303 1031 978 562 1198 1686 689 858 1582
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-152021-07-142021-07-142021-06-292021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-07-162021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-20 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-06-062021-07-162021-10-16 --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-142021-10-192021-10-102021-08-042021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-10-18 --2021-07-142021-10-18 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012021-07-15 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-242021-06-29 --2021-09-06 --2021-08-172021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302021-06-05 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-07-142021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-06 --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-142021-07-122021-07-142021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-172021-07-14 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-23 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-10-142021-09-02 -- --2021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-14 --2021-07-152021-07-162021-07-15 --2021-07-112021-07-162021-07-152021-07-29 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-06-292021-08-182021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-122021-09-15 --2021-07-142021-07-112021-07-15 -- -- --2021-09-032021-08-172021-07-152021-07-11 -- --2021-08-302021-09-29 --2021-10-182021-07-122021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-08-032021-07-152021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-06-29 -- --2021-06-29 --2021-07-15 -- -- --2021-10-18 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192021-06-062021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-09-012021-08-17 -- --2021-07-162021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-17 -- --2021-10-042021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-06-282021-07-152021-07-142021-07-13 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-182021-07-152021-06-29 --2021-08-182021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-08-192021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-08-172021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-07-172021-07-142021-07-152021-10-182021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-14 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-142021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-162021-07-08
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 53 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 260 276 70 139 152 144 287 379 176 943 127 159 126 202 43 293 107 478 103 176 68 218 621 4 258 94 72 97 74 160 249 177 75 159 115 101 227 67 170 203 269 243 82 80 125 121 567 69 142 114 708 607 376 53 101 229 122 140 92 86 64 202 400 269 137 188 133 139 183 122 100 65 157 15 61 22 105 58 110 128 185 88 171 421 67 56 82 274 123 941 95 63 113 163 229 84 156 152 61 65 146 59 151 89 82 90 203 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 247 316 301 117 707 51 213 80 99 120 41 51 448 96 169 46 164 72 72 101 274 115 49 31 184 116 384 105 164 84 94 256 621 176 291 228 77 96 322 87 264 158 255 140 118 343 145 297 114 289 268 40 140 67 213 75 73 49 116 70 253 94 78 123 96 482 169 277 202 118 53 345 86 85 470 128 68 77 92 131 303 200 152 243 70 131 87 77 41 243 339 240 201 428 57 145 101 329 219 85 141 137 116 92 150 92 78 105 131 134 61 226 286 64 79 352 157 313 195 144 73 69 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 74 138 380 632 149 99 63 117 120 74 138
Low between peaks 83 99 24 37 14 2 28 49 59 18 128 103 28 53 51 54 99 179 71 406 33 65 31 75 124 39 190 42 75 22 83 100 2 100 38 34 44 31 68 97 73 58 22 21 92 25 46 68 129 119 31 54 35 157 19 64 25 227 190 143 16 39 112 49 43 39 41 32 63 142 128 56 26 66 49 57 36 30 35 6 25 7 38 23 49 44 80 41 67 199 29 19 32 75 54 199 21 30 40 76 57 27 54 75 27 32 32 70 41 37 59 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 107 143 74 44 295 20 66 35 43 51 17 164 48 77 75 30 20 36 58 32 24 2 75 54 120 38 54 32 39 68 174 83 115 88 22 40 111 42 112 50 87 19 108 49 51 68 125 18 61 17 69 20 21 17 56 25 104 38 35 40 33 189 80 91 64 40 58 34 40 149 59 28 35 35 55 94 56 65 34 49 36 27 17 118 78 85 62 96 24 64 24 103 85 30 55 35 37 63 23 33 36 61 29 72 125 31 36 172 70 94 86 69 36 40 47 87 17 37 42 89 58 112 316 69 28 31 52 43 35 59

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-01-24 to 2022-01-30

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-01-23 39030 38973 12676 23291 29724 19463 37309 35167 12808 58924 32309 32306 29799 46245 16950 55895 94444 70492 18686 49880 38501 29481 41786 46114 91687 63152 273405 27342 46154 37703 18213 19939 76601 15177 92622 29377 136032 35483 25491 80012 20298 36617 65793 116294 26406 80191 24707 25250 27632 26647 52810 45491 52683 27130 51962 26307 31649 88637 26249 40475 23368 34519 69269 10512 46589 45181 23269 35727 92468 86644 25051 22911 21880 32102 104141 11832 45460 2443 22744 17487 20386 99612 15205 137681 85965 12259 29022 94578 36884 28526 30903 19857 21324 63998 13842 48217 83440 67572 23458 83789 24874 32734 90623 28452 17116 25687 25896 23617 36001 26459 20363 20570 23561 76963 30281 43645 22211 31220 10349 34630 76430 34086 20072 27818 26612 35156 23483 20812 31678 73345 34017 22853 15320 19711 53588 30709 153468 28866 18379 28018 21559 68850 31552 23166 68939 37626 18746 47512 22787 63752 24783 36912 61099 21563 26765 19850 26639 70210 34450 27386 21789 31712 76478 27876 28254 72811 38813 23611 17252 30371 12756 25847 54384 33377 25418 28285 67767 42819 107640 46785 84948 33792 210703 96576 19942 72425 25794 24316 35915 135864 58068 40310 13919 12369 154701 28387 69739 11829 22287 17394 52962 14942 17597 34045 43401 32547 41422 19422 70893 18766 16901 13856 38252 31975 29025 81067 30771 85701 38299 50606 28766 18130 23941 40075 29093 24745 90558 38859 14816 44207 58375 16246 25521 57369 78301 30027 85944 35029 15702 64880 1764 35795 22021 24916 25575 53847 58255 50576 22555 40109 40166 79818 37404 21334 37864 45235 63357 16969 46951 10952 62936 21319 19612 16656 72582 28066 20172 30147 24274 8198 9930 76966 88252 22476 17331 24683 74781 21957 27493 142141 1588 65831 39523 54775 26988 21932 17148 32945 26339 65882 15207 19119 31204 20020 79822 26003 20899 30226 30173 30154 27788 42441 58260 45438 77093 26176 36795 52154 32932 22663 21518 18571 79728 55917 66026 27138 22031 75931 21763 53867 34776 60632 51006 64237 20729 21035 24250 45717 31291 27980 18231 30305 23543 48953 30440 28075 23425 12186 80647 66362 25745 20617 31524 28031 92247 72615 69231 85847 58816 33089 26067 26927 30751 18960 28827 31924 9193 22306 29369 20483 41032 22340 32413 50775 93119 97535 26613 35835 83420 25112 39551 69227 23012 22312 33125 25410 41519 27304 22244 45584
2022-01-24 39190 39070 12940 23370 29840 19530 37570 35540 12850 59420 32510 32430 29900 46570 17060 56130 94640 70810 18790 50080 38800 29630 41990 46450 92240 63450 274300 27460 46330 37870 18260 20020 76850 15370 93060 29610 137100 35670 25660 80390 20340 36750 66160 116900 26590 80690 24830 25450 27780 26760 52980 45620 52980 27360 52220 26420 31840 89070 26380 40600 23440 34670 69760 10540 46850 45360 23420 35880 93000 87000 25150 23040 21980 32250 104500 11910 45560 2453 22810 17540 20490 100200 15300 138500 86290 12330 29180 95070 37010 28720 31100 19980 21370 64300 13910 48340 83850 67980 23620 84280 24980 32830 91110 28530 17260 25910 26000 23800 36120 26620 20450 20710 23580 77320 30500 43980 22380 31390 10400 34710 76850 34180 20190 27910 26810 35410 23630 20970 31810 73540 34090 22970 15400 19800 53860 30810 154000 29000 18480 28150 21700 69290 31710 23200 69210 37790 18880 47840 22900 64150 24890 37160 61450 21670 26880 19940 26790 70390 35180 27530 21850 31810 76910 28000 28440 73230 39050 23700 17320 30580 12770 25970 54640 33860 25580 28510 68080 42980 108300 46920 85410 33950 211800 97100 20070 72790 25930 24390 36200 136900 58350 40520 13970 12540 155800 28540 70220 12130 22380 17430 53210 15050 17730 34290 43860 32810 41550 19480 71180 18840 16970 13910 38370 32150 29170 81330 30920 85990 38440 50990 29030 18250 24020 40260 29220 24890 90880 39050 15190 44480 58700 16340 25660 57810 78740 30210 86270 35210 15780 65260 1779 36020 22100 25050 25670 54450 58590 50870 22600 40280 40870 80260 37570 21450 38070 45470 63460 17030 47250 11030 63190 21370 19690 16770 72900 28250 20300 30260 24410 8240 9970 77430 88690 22590 17370 24850 75020 22060 27660 142900 1589 66160 39830 55070 27180 21980 17510 33210 26450 66260 15320 19290 31420 20110 80370 26100 21010 30490 30300 30790 27910 42670 58620 45600 77520 26230 36800 52320 33110 22760 21630 18700 80100 56260 66310 27310 22180 76340 21830 54040 34980 60760 51350 64510 20830 21160 24440 46250 31450 28160 18360 30450 23670 49200 30610 28320 23490 12280 81190 66730 25840 20750 31610 28240 92660 73020 69550 86190 59120 33290 26170 27130 30920 19090 28920 32090 9232 22410 29540 20610 41130 22790 33080 51500 93430 98100 26800 36010 83770 25310 39870 69620 23170 22470 33250 25590 41770 27400 22390 45820
2022-01-25 39430 39200 13160 23560 30050 19680 37610 35800 12940 59810 32720 32560 30010 46950 17150 56370 95090 71360 19020 50330 39110 29770 42190 46870 92530 63790 275900 27610 46650 38190 18330 20150 77320 15550 93400 29890 138000 35840 25930 80980 20400 37010 66590 117500 26680 81240 24980 25610 27960 26990 53240 45820 53520 27660 52500 26570 32120 89510 26600 40790 23550 34790 70290 10610 47110 45570 23530 36020 93720 87340 25300 23230 22010 32490 104900 11960 45600 2469 22970 17650 20590 100800 15400 139600 86860 12440 29310 95610 37180 29000 31280 20100 21430 64710 13980 48500 84430 68410 23850 84890 25210 32990 91780 28620 17360 26120 26110 23970 36310 26830 20590 20910 23650 77830 30850 44340 22580 31510 10480 34870 77190 34310 20290 28070 27000 35620 23750 21150 31980 73820 34210 23110 15450 19940 54320 30950 154500 29090 18580 28270 21840 69640 31820 23280 69660 38070 19130 48130 22990 64460 25010 37600 61830 21720 27130 20060 26900 70660 35820 27630 21930 31990 77420 28200 28570 73750 39300 23890 17370 30800 12830 26180 54980 34200 25690 28760 68540 43170 109400 47160 85810 34170 213400 97800 20230 73180 26080 24480 36380 137700 58640 40720 14050 12710 156700 28810 70650 12360 22470 17480 53480 15150 17900 34550 44560 33040 41990 19540 71440 18880 17050 14020 38580 32340 29400 81910 31110 86490 38570 51140 29210 18490 24140 40520 29310 25030 91230 39300 15470 44710 59300 16510 25860 58310 79580 30370 86740 35490 15860 65580 1821 36230 22250 25300 25800 55040 58880 51290 22710 40610 41510 80670 37920 21530 38320 45690 63620 17140 47440 11130 63650 21460 19840 16860 73360 28470 20370 30410 24500 8289 10010 77860 89430 22720 17450 25050 75390 22150 27850 143900 1594 66450 40130 55370 27430 22060 17770 33390 26550 66580 15440 19450 31730 20260 80740 26260 21070 30830 30480 31250 28070 43100 58970 45770 77940 26370 36940 52580 33250 22910 21770 18810 80470 56850 66670 27450 22300 77140 21860 54290 35200 60990 51660 64910 20960 21280 24560 46760 31620 28350 18470 30600 23740 49400 30780 28610 23550 12360 81640 67080 25920 20890 31740 28380 93360 73660 69930 86580 59450 33440 26240 27240 31080 19270 29080 32280 9265 22500 29730 20730 41280 23180 33640 52030 93900 98700 26970 36100 84230 25440 40110 70250 23320 22660 33370 25730 41970 27600 22610 46080
2022-01-26 39640 39310 13340 23690 30210 19790 37750 36100 13010 60230 32910 32690 30110 47300 17250 56630 95560 71780 19190 50580 39400 29910 42390 47240 92940 64080 277100 27740 46910 38430 18390 20260 77680 15690 93770 30130 138700 36010 26140 81480 20480 37200 66980 118000 26820 81740 25110 25750 28120 27160 53440 45980 53940 27960 52740 26700 32340 89860 26770 40940 23680 34920 70790 10660 47330 45800 23660 36150 94370 87670 25410 23400 22070 32670 105300 12010 45660 2483 23090 17720 20690 101400 15490 140500 87280 12530 29450 96040 37390 29240 31440 20220 21490 65060 14050 48630 84910 68810 24050 85420 25380 33120 92350 28720 17480 26290 26210 24130 36510 27020 20700 21080 23730 78250 31140 44690 22760 31640 10550 35030 77530 34460 20400 28190 27180 35800 23880 21320 32130 74050 34290 23230 15510 20050 54690 31080 155000 29200 18680 28390 21980 69960 31940 23330 70020 38280 19320 48400 23090 64720 25120 37940 62190 21790 27310 20110 27030 70900 36290 27740 22000 32120 77880 28360 28710 74220 39540 24030 17430 31000 12860 26340 55290 34460 25820 28980 68920 43400 110300 47330 86210 34350 214700 98500 20370 73530 26220 24560 36600 138400 58900 40920 14120 12840 157500 29030 71080 12510 22560 17530 53770 15250 18040 34790 45140 33280 42250 19610 71690 18940 17120 14090 38740 32520 29580 82320 31280 86880 38710 51400 29390 18660 24230 40740 29420 25160 91440 39510 15700 44960 59770 16650 26020 58800 80230 30530 87130 35730 15930 65850 1850 36430 22360 25500 25910 55570 59180 51650 22780 40860 41970 81050 38180 21630 38560 45870 63760 17230 47680 11220 64010 21540 19960 16960 73750 28660 20460 30560 24600 8332 10050 78180 90020 22840 17510 25220 75680 22230 28030 144800 1598 66750 40420 55660 27650 22150 17970 33600 26660 66910 15550 19630 31980 20370 81110 26450 21150 31130 30640 31600 28200 43440 59310 45980 78280 26530 37110 52790 33400 23040 21900 18920 80830 57330 66980 27600 22430 77760 21900 54520 35400 61170 51970 65240 21070 21410 24710 47190 31780 28520 18580 30750 23840 49620 30940 28850 23610 12450 82030 67400 25990 21030 31840 28550 93910 74190 70250 86940 59690 33620 26320 27390 31240 19430 29240 32450 9300 22600 29890 20850 41400 23440 34070 52410 94280 99200 27130 36220 84620 25590 40370 70770 23470 22820 33480 25880 42180 27740 22790 46310
2022-01-27 39810 39410 13470 23790 30340 19880 37920 36410 13060 60650 33100 32790 30200 47620 17340 56810 96050 72120 19320 50760 39690 30040 42570 47590 93380 64320 278200 27860 47110 38620 18440 20350 77960 15800 94140 30360 139300 36190 26330 81910 20530 37370 67340 118600 26960 82190 25230 25860 28270 27300 53620 46120 54290 28220 53010 26810 32540 90190 26920 41070 23770 35040 71250 10700 47530 46010 23790 36280 94940 87970 25520 23440 22140 32830 105500 12040 45730 2495 23180 17780 20780 101900 15580 141400 87650 12610 29580 96430 37550 29450 31530 20330 21540 65360 14110 48730 85320 69200 24230 85910 25510 33220 92860 28800 17600 26440 26280 24290 36650 27190 20790 21220 23750 78610 31390 45010 22930 31780 10610 35170 77850 34560 20510 28300 27360 35960 24010 21480 32270 74250 34400 23350 15580 20140 54990 31220 155500 29310 18780 28520 22110 70240 32070 23380 70330 38460 19480 48650 23190 64960 25220 38230 62520 21870 27450 20190 27150 71110 36550 27860 22060 32220 78300 28500 28870 74640 39760 24140 17460 31200 12890 26480 55560 34650 25960 29200 69250 43640 111000 47470 86530 34510 215900 99000 20500 73820 26350 24630 36830 138900 59160 41110 14180 12960 158100 29200 71410 12660 22650 17570 54080 15340 18180 35030 45640 33510 42430 19650 71940 19000 17170 14160 38880 32680 29730 82640 31430 87200 38840 51690 29510 18810 24310 40930 29530 25290 91570 39700 15830 45210 60140 16760 26170 59240 80770 30700 87460 35930 16010 66020 1872 36620 22460 25660 26010 56000 59480 51970 22850 41060 42460 81340 38380 21720 38780 45970 63880 17300 47920 11290 64300 21630 20050 17070 74080 28840 20560 30750 24700 8372 10080 78390 90530 22950 17550 25390 75910 22320 28190 145500 1600 67040 40670 55940 27840 22190 18130 33820 26750 67240 15650 19770 32210 20470 81330 26610 21230 31400 30770 31960 28320 43720 59650 46140 78520 26650 37220 52960 33540 23140 22010 18980 81070 57730 67250 27750 22560 78260 21950 54750 35590 61320 52280 65510 21170 21530 24870 47540 31920 28690 18700 30880 23940 49810 31100 29060 23670 12530 82220 67660 26070 21130 31930 28720 94370 74630 70490 87280 59870 33790 26410 27550 31400 19570 29300 32610 9334 22660 29990 20970 41510 23660 34370 52710 94590 99800 27300 36360 84950 25760 40640 71220 23620 22980 33590 26040 42400 27860 22950 46530
2022-01-28 39970 39500 13510 23870 30460 19950 38100 36730 13110 61070 33290 32900 30300 47940 17440 56980 96590 72450 19440 50950 39970 30160 42760 47940 93830 64570 279100 27990 47310 38810 18480 20430 78220 15890 94510 30590 139800 36370 26520 82320 20570 37520 67700 119100 27120 82640 25360 25970 28410 27420 53780 46260 54620 28470 53300 26920 32740 90530 27060 41190 23840 35170 71700 10740 47710 46190 23920 36410 95500 88280 25620 23540 22210 32980 105800 12070 45800 2506 23270 17830 20870 102500 15670 142200 88000 12690 29720 96780 37690 29660 31720 20440 21590 65640 14170 48830 85720 69580 24400 86380 25640 33320 93360 28840 17720 26540 26350 24460 36760 27350 20880 21370 23790 78960 31630 45320 23100 31920 10660 35310 78130 34650 20610 28410 27540 36100 24140 21640 32410 74430 34460 23460 15640 20230 55280 31310 155700 29420 18870 28640 22240 70470 32200 23410 70630 38630 19640 48960 23280 65170 25320 38510 62860 21960 27590 20190 27280 71310 36760 27980 22110 32310 78720 28630 29030 75050 39980 24250 17490 31390 12910 26620 55810 34830 26090 29420 69580 43890 111700 47610 86790 34670 217000 99500 20630 74070 26480 24710 37060 139300 59420 41300 14230 12960 158600 29370 71730 12660 22730 17600 54280 15440 18310 35260 46120 33750 42590 19700 72200 19060 17200 14220 39020 32850 29880 82950 31570 87500 38970 51990 29650 18960 24390 41110 29630 25420 91700 39880 15940 45460 60500 16860 26310 59600 81290 30860 87780 36130 16080 66170 1893 36810 22550 25820 26100 56390 59780 52270 22910 41260 42650 81630 38570 21810 38980 46080 63990 17370 48170 11370 64580 21680 20140 17170 74400 29020 20660 30860 24810 8412 10120 78570 91020 23060 17600 25550 76140 22400 28360 146300 1602 67330 40930 56210 28040 22260 18200 34050 26850 67570 15760 19890 32430 20560 81540 26760 21320 31660 30910 31980 28440 43980 59980 46290 78720 26790 37450 53120 33690 23240 22110 19030 81390 58110 67520 27900 22690 78740 22000 54940 35780 61470 52590 65770 21270 21640 25030 47810 32060 28860 18810 31010 24040 49980 31250 29260 23730 12610 82720 67860 26150 21240 32050 28900 94800 75070 70770 87720 60050 33970 26490 27710 31550 19710 29490 32770 9369 22710 30100 21090 41610 23820 34650 53000 94880 100300 27470 36500 85270 25920 40910 71650 23770 23130 33670 26190 42620 27970 23100 46750
2022-01-29 40120 39590 13570 23950 30570 20020 38310 37050 13150 61510 33480 33000 30390 48250 17530 57070 96820 72740 19550 51110 40260 30290 42940 48270 94320 64790 279900 28110 47490 38970 18520 20510 78440 15960 94890 30800 139900 36540 26700 82700 20600 37660 68040 119600 27280 83040 25470 26040 28550 27540 53940 46390 54920 28720 53430 27020 32930 90750 27190 41310 23900 35300 72150 10770 47820 46390 24050 36550 96020 88590 25710 23640 22300 33120 105900 12090 45880 2517 23340 17870 20970 103000 15760 143100 88320 12760 29860 97090 37830 29860 31800 20550 21610 65910 14230 48930 86090 69950 24560 86830 25750 33410 93840 28850 17840 26630 26380 24620 36860 27500 20960 21500 23800 79290 31860 45630 23260 32070 10710 35450 78340 34720 20720 28500 27720 36180 24270 21800 32550 74600 34470 23570 15710 20320 55540 31380 155900 29530 18960 28770 22370 70680 32340 23420 70900 38790 19780 49090 23380 65330 25410 38760 63180 22050 27710 20190 27410 71470 36910 28100 22170 32390 79130 28760 29200 75450 40190 24340 17500 31580 12920 26740 56060 34920 26230 29640 69880 44030 112400 47730 86980 34820 218100 100000 20750 74330 26610 24780 37310 139600 59680 41490 14270 12990 158900 29520 72010 12700 22810 17640 54420 15540 18440 35490 46570 33990 42710 19710 72460 19120 17200 14270 39140 33010 30020 83220 31710 87770 39110 52320 29690 19090 24460 41280 29750 25550 91750 40060 16040 45710 60820 16950 26440 59920 81760 31020 88070 36300 16150 66240 1909 37010 22630 25950 26180 56710 60090 52560 22960 41430 42910 81830 38740 21910 39160 46120 64100 17440 48430 11450 64830 21740 20220 17280 74700 29180 20760 30940 24920 8451 10150 78600 91460 23160 17640 25710 76350 22480 28510 147000 1603 67630 41120 56480 28220 22280 18310 34280 26940 67910 15860 20000 32630 20650 81630 26900 21420 31920 31030 32100 28550 44220 60320 46410 78880 26900 37640 53260 33840 23330 22220 19050 81580 58450 67780 28050 22820 79170 22050 55150 35970 61610 52910 66020 21360 21730 25200 48050 32200 29030 18930 31150 24150 50110 31400 29440 23780 12700 82860 67970 26230 21340 32120 29080 95180 75460 70960 87870 60160 34150 26580 27880 31700 19840 29560 32920 9405 22730 30170 21200 41710 23930 34850 53120 95150 100900 27640 36650 85570 26100 41200 72050 23910 23270 33700 26360 42840 28060 23230 46970
2022-01-30 40270 39670 13660 24020 30680 20080 38530 37380 13190 61950 33660 33100 30480 48560 17630 57250 97420 73020 19650 51320 40540 30420 43120 48600 94810 65040 280800 28230 47650 39120 18560 20580 78650 16060 95270 31020 140700 36720 26870 83070 20670 37800 68380 120100 27450 83420 25590 26100 28690 27640 54090 46520 55200 29000 53700 27120 33110 90900 27320 41420 23990 35430 72590 10800 48080 46620 24190 36680 96540 88890 25800 23820 22390 33250 106300 12130 45960 2527 23410 17910 21060 103600 15840 143800 88630 12820 30010 97460 38040 30050 31890 20660 21640 66170 14290 49020 86450 70320 24720 87280 25860 33500 94300 28930 17970 26840 26430 24780 37050 27650 21030 21640 23880 79610 32080 45940 23430 32220 10760 35680 78570 34820 20820 28600 27900 36300 24400 21960 32680 74770 34510 23680 15780 20400 55790 31500 156300 29650 19050 28900 22500 70970 32480 23450 71170 38950 19920 49290 23480 65560 25510 39010 63500 22140 27830 20280 27540 71750 37230 28230 22220 32470 79530 28880 29370 75840 40410 24420 17560 31770 12940 26860 56300 35130 26370 29860 70170 44230 113000 47840 87240 34970 219100 100500 20870 74640 26730 24850 37570 140100 59930 41670 14350 13100 159500 29670 72310 12790 22890 17680 54700 15630 18560 35710 47000 34230 42810 19770 72720 19180 17240 14320 39260 33170 30150 83470 31840 88030 39250 52660 29760 19210 24520 41440 29860 25680 92050 40230 16200 45970 61130 17030 26570 60300 82210 31190 88360 36470 16220 66540 1924 37210 22710 26090 26260 57230 60400 52830 23010 41600 43200 82140 38900 22000 39320 46270 64200 17500 48690 11520 65060 21830 20290 17380 74980 29350 20870 31060 25040 8490 10190 78970 91900 23260 17680 25870 76540 22570 28670 147600 1605 67920 41350 56750 28410 22360 18410 34520 27040 68240 15970 20130 32840 20730 81840 27120 21520 32170 31150 32290 28660 44450 60650 46590 79180 27040 37850 53400 33990 23420 22320 19100 81900 58780 68030 28210 22950 79580 22110 55430 36150 61740 53220 66250 21460 21820 25370 48350 32340 29200 19050 31280 24270 50270 31560 29670 23840 12780 83160 68250 26310 21430 32170 29270 95560 75850 71260 88210 60470 34340 26680 28060 31860 19960 29700 33070 9441 22760 30320 21320 41810 24170 35150 53400 95400 101400 27810 36800 85860 26270 41490 72430 24060 23420 33790 26520 43070 28140 23370 47180

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-01-24 to 2022-01-30

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-01-23 39030 38973 12676 23291 29724 19463 37309 35167 12808 58924 32309 32306 29799 46245 16950 55895 94444 70492 18686 49880 38501 29481 41786 46114 91687 63152 273405 27342 46154 37703 18213 19939 76601 15177 92622 29377 136032 35483 25491 80012 20298 36617 65793 116294 26406 80191 24707 25250 27632 26647 52810 45491 52683 27130 51962 26307 31649 88637 26249 40475 23368 34519 69269 10512 46589 45181 23269 35727 92468 86644 25051 22911 21880 32102 104141 11832 45460 2443 22744 17487 20386 99612 15205 137681 85965 12259 29022 94578 36884 28526 30903 19857 21324 63998 13842 48217 83440 67572 23458 83789 24874 32734 90623 28452 17116 25687 25896 23617 36001 26459 20363 20570 23561 76963 30281 43645 22211 31220 10349 34630 76430 34086 20072 27818 26612 35156 23483 20812 31678 73345 34017 22853 15320 19711 53588 30709 153468 28866 18379 28018 21559 68850 31552 23166 68939 37626 18746 47512 22787 63752 24783 36912 61099 21563 26765 19850 26639 70210 34450 27386 21789 31712 76478 27876 28254 72811 38813 23611 17252 30371 12756 25847 54384 33377 25418 28285 67767 42819 107640 46785 84948 33792 210703 96576 19942 72425 25794 24316 35915 135864 58068 40310 13919 12369 154701 28387 69739 11829 22287 17394 52962 14942 17597 34045 43401 32547 41422 19422 70893 18766 16901 13856 38252 31975 29025 81067 30771 85701 38299 50606 28766 18130 23941 40075 29093 24745 90558 38859 14816 44207 58375 16246 25521 57369 78301 30027 85944 35029 15702 64880 1764 35795 22021 24916 25575 53847 58255 50576 22555 40109 40166 79818 37404 21334 37864 45235 63357 16969 46951 10952 62936 21319 19612 16656 72582 28066 20172 30147 24274 8198 9930 76966 88252 22476 17331 24683 74781 21957 27493 142141 1588 65831 39523 54775 26988 21932 17148 32945 26339 65882 15207 19119 31204 20020 79822 26003 20899 30226 30173 30154 27788 42441 58260 45438 77093 26176 36795 52154 32932 22663 21518 18571 79728 55917 66026 27138 22031 75931 21763 53867 34776 60632 51006 64237 20729 21035 24250 45717 31291 27980 18231 30305 23543 48953 30440 28075 23425 12186 80647 66362 25745 20617 31524 28031 92247 72615 69231 85847 58816 33089 26067 26927 30751 18960 28827 31924 9193 22306 29369 20483 41032 22340 32413 50775 93119 97535 26613 35835 83420 25112 39551 69227 23012 22312 33125 25410 41519 27304 22244 45584
2022-01-24 39130 39060 12810 23360 29830 19520 37590 35500 12840 59400 32530 32450 29980 46700 17070 56080 95010 70770 18750 50140 38860 29630 41960 46540 92200 63380 275000 27470 46430 37850 18240 20040 76900 15310 93080 29590 137200 35730 25680 80380 20350 36700 66150 116900 26600 80640 24870 25340 27780 26770 53040 45590 53060 27460 52190 26460 31920 88870 26370 40570 23460 34640 69840 10530 46860 45440 23430 35990 93000 87130 25130 23110 22050 32270 104400 11880 45700 2450 22790 17540 20580 100200 15280 138600 86650 12330 29190 94950 37100 28720 31030 19960 21360 64470 13890 48360 83780 67970 23630 84420 24930 32790 91120 28500 17280 25920 25950 23830 36160 26580 20420 20730 23610 77410 30520 43990 22390 31440 10420 34850 76770 34190 20200 27910 26810 35280 23610 21030 31800 73710 34070 23030 15390 19790 53940 30830 153800 29070 18460 28190 21670 69170 31770 23190 69190 37780 18900 47730 22940 64040 24900 37190 61520 21700 26890 20010 26790 70490 34840 27550 21860 31790 76960 28000 28490 73240 39040 23710 17290 30580 12780 25990 54620 33600 25600 28510 68140 43080 108400 46940 85210 33950 212200 97000 20100 72730 25990 24480 36260 136500 58570 40510 14000 12490 155400 28530 70140 11980 22390 17430 53270 15050 17750 34290 43650 32820 41840 19500 71510 18900 16940 13900 38320 32180 29150 81700 30940 85960 38420 50920 28830 18250 24010 40270 29230 24900 90790 39100 15020 44510 58670 16330 25660 57890 78730 30230 86330 35210 15790 65120 1770 36150 22070 25060 25640 54440 58670 50820 22600 40350 40620 80220 37610 21460 38060 45350 63450 17030 47230 11020 63210 21380 19680 16780 73030 28340 20310 30300 24490 8253 9970 77250 88860 22590 17370 24840 74970 22100 27630 143100 1590 66110 39800 55150 27170 21980 17300 33250 26460 66220 15320 19310 31380 20120 80020 26240 21050 30440 30330 30480 27910 42790 58650 45620 77350 26360 37000 52300 33140 22770 21650 18620 79990 56180 66490 27320 22160 76350 21920 54160 34980 60740 51390 64520 20850 21150 24440 46130 31440 28200 18350 30470 23690 49150 30610 28320 23470 12290 81000 66670 25910 20740 31580 28270 92570 73130 69510 86120 59070 33340 26270 27170 30940 19110 28960 32110 9250 22370 29510 20610 41130 22600 32790 51140 93410 98100 26870 36130 83740 25350 39910 69680 23200 22500 33190 25600 41790 27420 22400 45890
2022-01-25 39320 39180 12910 23450 29940 19620 37730 35700 12890 59690 32710 32580 30140 47120 17150 56260 95590 71160 18820 50380 39160 29820 42120 46980 92590 63600 277000 27560 46790 38080 18280 20150 77250 15440 93470 29780 138600 35950 25900 80800 20400 36780 66520 117500 26730 81000 25040 25430 27900 26940 53240 45670 53550 27740 52430 26630 32150 89060 26510 40660 23540 34720 70370 10550 47090 45610 23590 36240 93590 87530 25200 23300 22190 32440 104800 11910 45930 2457 22840 17590 20790 100600 15350 139600 87500 12400 29310 95310 37270 28970 31170 20060 21390 65000 13960 48460 84170 68350 23820 85100 25040 32900 91680 28550 17400 26120 26010 24020 36320 26710 20510 20880 23660 77860 30790 44270 22570 31640 10510 35030 77030 34300 20280 27990 26990 35360 23720 21190 31870 74210 34120 23190 15450 19860 54460 30920 154100 29300 18550 28330 21770 69440 31900 23230 69510 37920 19060 47960 23050 64300 25000 37490 61870 21780 27060 20170 26930 70730 35160 27690 21920 31870 77490 28090 28680 73720 39260 23840 17330 30780 12810 26170 54870 33810 25770 28690 68530 43280 109200 47050 85470 34130 214000 97700 20230 73010 26210 24630 36490 137000 59040 40690 14060 12620 156100 28710 70500 12080 22480 17450 53500 15140 17890 34470 43880 33010 42500 19560 72130 19000 16980 13940 38400 32340 29290 82470 31130 86220 38500 51100 28900 18380 24080 40500 29350 25030 91020 39330 15160 44820 59070 16440 25790 58390 79290 30400 86820 35440 15870 65370 1782 36460 22120 25240 25730 55030 59110 51120 22640 40680 41050 80590 37930 21580 38260 45450 63550 17080 47430 11090 63630 21430 19770 16900 73560 28610 20430 30430 24700 8307 10000 77550 89610 22710 17410 24980 75190 22190 27740 144200 1592 66390 40120 55510 27330 22030 17440 33510 26580 66550 15420 19480 31550 20250 80190 26390 21140 30640 30450 30760 28030 43260 59080 45790 77620 26500 37180 52480 33320 22900 21770 18660 80220 56530 66970 27500 22290 76920 22050 54400 35150 60850 51770 64860 21000 21230 24590 46630 31560 28420 18460 30590 23810 49310 30760 28590 23500 12360 81430 66920 26040 20850 31630 28450 93070 73780 69800 86410 59290 33550 26430 27350 31100 19280 29100 32280 9316 22420 29640 20740 41220 22840 33160 51500 93730 98500 27070 36340 84030 25540 40210 70260 23370 22660 33250 25770 42020 27550 22570 46150
2022-01-26 39500 39300 13010 23520 30020 19690 37900 35920 12950 60000 32880 32690 30310 47500 17250 56450 96160 71510 18890 50590 39450 29990 42280 47390 92980 63800 278700 27640 47090 38270 18300 20240 77560 15570 93850 29960 139800 36140 26080 81170 20460 36870 66880 118000 26860 81340 25190 25500 28010 27080 53410 45750 53960 28020 52660 26770 32370 89260 26640 40750 23620 34800 70830 10580 47290 45790 23750 36480 94110 87940 25260 23470 22310 32580 105100 11950 46160 2464 22890 17630 20970 101100 15420 140500 88220 12470 29450 95620 37470 29190 31300 20160 21430 65410 14020 48550 84510 68730 24000 85680 25150 32990 92200 28600 17530 26300 26070 24200 36470 26840 20600 21020 23710 78230 31040 44550 22750 31810 10580 35210 77300 34410 20360 28070 27160 35450 23830 21360 31940 74630 34160 23350 15510 19930 54910 31000 154400 29510 18630 28470 21880 69710 32020 23270 69800 38050 19220 48180 23160 64540 25120 37760 62220 21870 27210 20300 27080 70980 35460 27830 21990 31950 77940 28190 28860 74150 39480 23960 17370 30970 12840 26320 55080 34010 25930 28870 68880 43490 110000 47170 85670 34290 215500 98300 20350 73290 26400 24780 36720 137500 59500 40860 14120 12750 156700 28870 70830 12170 22570 17480 53740 15220 18020 34650 44090 33220 43010 19620 72660 19100 17020 13990 38480 32490 29400 83120 31310 86470 38600 51340 28990 18490 24140 40700 29470 25160 91220 39540 15310 45120 59430 16530 25920 58890 79810 30560 87230 35650 15950 65590 1791 36760 22170 25390 25830 55560 59510 51400 22690 40940 41430 80920 38210 21690 38430 45570 63640 17140 47660 11170 63960 21480 19840 17000 74010 28860 20550 30560 24890 8360 10040 77780 90240 22820 17460 25120 75420 22280 27850 145200 1594 66650 40410 55850 27500 22080 17560 33770 26690 66870 15510 19660 31720 20360 80390 26560 21250 30840 30560 31000 28140 43650 59450 45950 77890 26650 37360 52610 33460 23010 21870 18720 80470 56840 67400 27680 22430 77430 22160 54620 35310 60990 52120 65120 21120 21310 24740 47070 31670 28610 18560 30710 23940 49470 30910 28820 23540 12440 81820 67150 26170 20960 31690 28630 93500 74330 70070 86680 59470 33730 26620 27520 31260 19430 29250 32450 9377 22480 29740 20850 41290 23060 33470 51830 93980 99000 27250 36550 84280 25730 40510 70750 23540 22810 33310 25940 42250 27670 22720 46380
2022-01-27 39650 39430 13110 23570 30100 19760 38100 36180 12980 60350 33070 32780 30470 47820 17330 56610 96670 71810 18950 50770 39730 30150 42450 47720 93380 63990 280300 27720 47360 38430 18320 20310 77840 15670 94190 30140 140900 36320 26250 81540 20510 36950 67200 118500 27020 81670 25330 25570 28120 27190 53550 45830 54300 28280 52890 26890 32570 89470 26770 40840 23690 34870 71230 10590 47490 45960 23900 36690 94530 88260 25310 23610 22430 32700 105400 11980 46380 2471 22930 17670 21110 101600 15500 141400 88840 12530 29580 95950 37640 29390 31420 20260 21460 65760 14080 48620 84810 69070 24160 86220 25240 33080 92670 28650 17660 26490 26120 24370 36600 26960 20660 21140 23750 78590 31260 44810 22920 31960 10650 35380 77560 34500 20450 28150 27340 35550 23950 21520 32000 74960 34200 23480 15580 19990 55300 31100 154700 29710 18720 28590 21990 69960 32180 23310 70070 38170 19360 48370 23260 64790 25220 38000 62540 21970 27350 20420 27210 71180 35720 27970 22040 32030 78370 28280 29030 74550 39700 24050 17400 31160 12860 26440 55310 34190 26080 29060 69210 43710 110700 47270 85890 34440 216700 98800 20470 73560 26540 24920 36960 137900 59890 41030 14170 12840 157200 29000 71130 12250 22660 17510 53990 15320 18140 34830 44300 33430 43440 19660 73130 19190 17050 14030 38550 32640 29530 83700 31450 86730 38730 51610 29060 18600 24190 40880 29590 25290 91400 39730 15450 45410 59730 16600 26040 59360 80290 30720 87580 35840 16030 65740 1797 37030 22210 25530 25910 56020 59890 51650 22730 41150 41770 81210 38440 21790 38620 45650 63730 17180 47900 11240 64240 21540 19910 17110 74400 29060 20660 30680 25050 8413 10060 77980 90830 22930 17490 25260 75620 22370 27960 146000 1596 66920 40680 56160 27670 22130 17660 34010 26790 67190 15600 19820 31870 20460 80540 26720 21350 31030 30660 31240 28240 44010 59760 46100 78110 26770 37500 52710 33610 23110 21970 18760 80660 57140 67800 27850 22550 77890 22280 54840 35480 61110 52450 65340 21240 21410 24910 47470 31780 28770 18680 30820 24060 49630 31040 29040 23580 12510 82140 67360 26290 21050 31740 28820 93870 74830 70300 86980 59630 33900 26780 27710 31410 19580 29330 32630 9435 22520 29830 20960 41370 23250 33750 52090 94180 99500 27420 36750 84530 25920 40800 71200 23680 22960 33370 26110 42470 27770 22860 46580
2022-01-28 39780 39540 13190 23620 30170 19820 38310 36390 13020 60710 33220 32870 30590 48080 17410 56760 97100 72100 19000 50930 39940 30310 42620 47990 93820 64170 281500 27790 47600 38570 18340 20380 78050 15760 94490 30290 142000 36450 26390 81860 20560 37030 67480 119000 27150 81990 25430 25650 28210 27280 53690 45900 54550 28500 53120 27020 32730 89690 26890 40930 23750 34940 71540 10610 47650 46100 24060 36870 94900 88520 25360 23720 22530 32830 105700 12000 46550 2479 22980 17700 21230 101900 15570 142200 89360 12580 29700 96250 37760 29580 31520 20360 21500 66030 14120 48680 85100 69360 24300 86730 25320 33160 93070 28690 17760 26670 26170 24510 36700 27080 20710 21250 23800 78880 31450 45050 23060 32090 10720 35520 77790 34570 20530 28220 27510 35630 24060 21660 32060 75240 34240 23580 15640 20050 55670 31170 155000 29910 18810 28680 22100 70140 32280 23350 70280 38260 19470 48520 23350 64980 25290 38210 62810 22050 27480 20520 27310 71370 35940 28080 22100 32080 78700 28380 29180 74880 39870 24120 17430 31310 12880 26550 55530 34330 26240 29250 69500 43900 111300 47350 86070 34550 217700 99200 20570 73770 26650 25030 37180 138100 60170 41180 14220 12890 157700 29110 71360 12300 22760 17530 54160 15410 18240 34990 44530 33650 43830 19710 73520 19280 17080 14070 38610 32760 29620 84250 31590 86990 38830 51900 29120 18710 24240 41020 29690 25390 91560 39890 15560 45690 60020 16660 26160 59780 80760 30860 87840 35990 16090 65850 1803 37280 22260 25650 26010 56450 60260 51850 22770 41300 42010 81480 38670 21900 38760 45750 63810 17230 48140 11310 64450 21580 19960 17210 74750 29210 20760 30770 25170 8465 10090 78160 91380 23040 17540 25410 75780 22450 28050 146700 1598 67200 40950 56450 27830 22180 17750 34210 26890 67520 15690 19960 32000 20530 80670 26860 21440 31180 30740 31410 28330 44340 60020 46220 78300 26890 37700 52800 33740 23190 22040 18800 80910 57420 68140 28020 22680 78340 22380 54990 35620 61210 52780 65510 21360 21480 25080 47850 31870 28910 18790 30920 24150 49790 31150 29270 23620 12590 82430 67530 26390 21140 31810 28970 94210 75300 70520 87260 59810 34070 26920 27850 31540 19720 29480 32800 9493 22560 29910 21050 41460 23390 33960 52350 94340 100000 27580 36940 84740 26070 41050 71630 23810 23080 33420 26250 42650 27850 23000 46740
2022-01-29 39890 39630 13270 23680 30230 19880 38490 36580 13040 61100 33370 32940 30700 48360 17480 56860 97400 72390 19050 51010 40210 30460 42790 48220 94220 64330 282800 27860 47840 38740 18370 20440 78240 15830 94800 30420 142900 36540 26530 82120 20590 37080 67720 119400 27270 82230 25510 25690 28300 27360 53820 45960 54800 28700 53340 27130 32870 89820 27020 41000 23790 35030 71790 10630 47750 46230 24210 37030 95290 88840 25410 23860 22630 32940 105900 12030 46700 2486 23010 17730 21340 102300 15640 143000 89790 12630 29800 96480 37850 29730 31600 20470 21510 66210 14170 48750 85400 69610 24420 87240 25390 33220 93440 28740 17860 26780 26200 24650 36790 27190 20770 21350 23830 79140 31620 45260 23190 32180 10780 35640 77970 34630 20600 28280 27690 35700 24170 21780 32130 75370 34260 23650 15710 20120 56040 31220 155200 30100 18890 28740 22210 70270 32370 23360 70450 38350 19580 48620 23430 65170 25360 38390 63070 22120 27610 20570 27410 71530 36090 28170 22150 32130 78940 28470 29300 75170 40020 24200 17450 31440 12900 26650 55750 34450 26390 29440 69750 44030 112000 47430 86280 34660 218400 99600 20660 73960 26750 25130 37370 138400 60470 41300 14250 12940 157900 29200 71520 12330 22850 17550 54300 15500 18340 35120 44760 33840 44190 19760 73820 19360 17100 14100 38670 32880 29700 84780 31700 87160 38890 52210 29180 18820 24280 41150 29770 25490 91630 40030 15640 45980 60280 16710 26270 60150 81230 30990 88020 36120 16150 66000 1808 37480 22280 25740 26090 56790 60630 52030 22810 41430 42210 81710 38880 22000 38880 45800 63880 17270 48400 11380 64610 21620 20000 17300 75090 29330 20850 30860 25290 8511 10110 78310 91920 23150 17570 25550 75930 22520 28130 147200 1599 67510 41220 56720 28000 22210 17810 34410 26970 67840 15770 20100 32110 20590 80800 26960 21520 31320 30810 31590 28430 44660 60240 46310 78510 26980 37850 52920 33860 23250 22120 18830 81110 57720 68430 28190 22810 78790 22460 55130 35740 61300 53110 65710 21470 21530 25250 48210 31950 29020 18910 31010 24250 49880 31250 29470 23650 12660 82650 67690 26490 21210 31840 29110 94560 75750 70700 87520 59930 34210 27040 28000 31660 19860 29570 32990 9551 22590 29960 21140 41520 23530 34170 52510 94540 100500 27720 37120 84920 26240 41290 72040 23920 23200 33460 26370 42820 27920 23120 46860
2022-01-30 40010 39700 13360 23730 30280 19930 38680 36750 13070 61480 33530 33010 30810 48650 17550 56990 98000 72690 19090 51170 40470 30620 42960 48570 94640 64460 284100 27940 48070 38880 18390 20500 78440 15920 95100 30550 144000 36670 26660 82420 20640 37130 67960 119800 27420 82450 25680 25730 28370 27440 53940 46030 55080 28930 53580 27250 33010 89920 27140 41060 23830 35130 72220 10650 47900 46350 24370 37190 95660 89070 25450 24020 22760 33060 106100 12050 46840 2494 23040 17760 21480 102700 15720 143900 90460 12670 29900 96710 38000 29910 31680 20570 21530 66630 14210 48810 85700 69880 24550 87740 25470 33280 93840 28770 17970 26990 26220 24800 36880 27300 20800 21460 23860 79400 31810 45460 23320 32330 10840 35800 78140 34680 20670 28340 27870 35750 24280 21920 32190 75780 34290 23780 15780 20180 56390 31280 155400 30300 18980 28840 22330 70520 32480 23380 70740 38430 19690 48830 23490 65380 25420 38590 63330 22190 27740 20700 27510 71690 36360 28290 22200 32170 79400 28550 29490 75500 40170 24280 17470 31590 12910 26770 55980 34710 26550 29640 70040 44190 112600 47500 86490 34760 219800 100100 20750 74160 26860 25250 37550 138700 60840 41440 14290 13030 158400 29300 71760 12410 22940 17570 54490 15590 18450 35260 45000 34040 44550 19800 74320 19450 17110 14140 38720 33000 29770 85310 31820 87300 38950 52520 29220 18930 24320 41280 29860 25590 91740 40180 15790 46260 60540 16770 26370 60550 81700 31120 88370 36250 16200 66190 1813 37730 22310 25830 26160 57290 60990 52210 22830 41640 42500 81950 39090 22110 38990 45860 63950 17310 48650 11460 64870 21650 20040 17390 75430 29530 20950 30950 25470 8565 10130 78530 92450 23260 17580 25690 76050 22580 28210 148100 1600 67810 41480 56990 28170 22250 17930 34620 27040 68180 15870 20240 32230 20660 80900 27090 21610 31470 30890 31780 28530 44980 60580 46400 78790 27060 37970 52990 33960 23330 22170 18860 81310 58010 68780 28370 22940 79230 22550 55320 35850 61380 53440 65890 21590 21580 25420 48620 32030 29210 19030 31090 24360 49990 31360 29710 23680 12730 83030 67840 26580 21280 31870 29260 94930 76200 70900 87830 60120 34350 27180 28160 31770 20000 29670 33170 9610 22610 30030 21240 41580 23790 34500 52860 94680 101000 27900 37310 85080 26400 41530 72460 24090 23320 33490 26520 43000 27990 23260 47060

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.