COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-01-28 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-01-28

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-01-28

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-12-292021-12-282021-12-292022-01-022021-12-282021-12-312021-12-292021-12-272021-12-29 --2021-12-282021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-302021-12-292022-01-032021-12-302021-12-292021-12-292021-12-312021-12-292021-12-292021-12-312021-12-212022-01-022021-12-292022-01-042022-01-032021-12-292022-01-022021-12-292022-01-042021-12-292021-12-292022-01-042021-12-292021-12-292021-12-282021-12-222021-12-282021-12-282021-12-312021-12-292021-12-212021-12-292021-12-282021-12-292022-01-042021-12-292021-12-282022-01-02 --2021-12-152021-12-312021-12-302021-12-282022-01-032021-12-292021-12-282021-12-292021-12-272021-12-292021-12-302021-12-292021-12-282021-12-292021-12-312021-12-302021-12-292021-12-282021-12-282021-12-292021-12-302021-12-272021-12-282021-12-282021-12-292021-12-292021-12-282021-12-312021-12-292022-01-042022-01-022021-12-292021-12-302021-12-212021-12-282022-01-042021-12-292021-12-312021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292022-01-022021-12-292021-12-292022-01-022021-12-312021-12-282021-12-292021-12-29 --2021-12-292021-12-27 --2021-12-292021-12-292021-12-302021-12-292021-12-282021-12-312022-01-042021-12-292021-12-292021-12-282022-01-012021-12-222021-12-262021-12-292021-12-212021-12-29 --2021-12-292022-01-032021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-282021-12-302021-12-302021-12-312022-01-032021-12-292021-12-292021-12-302021-12-312021-12-292021-12-302021-12-202021-12-232021-12-282021-12-152021-12-292021-12-292021-12-202021-12-302021-12-212021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-282022-01-042021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-282021-12-292021-12-302021-12-292021-12-312021-12-292021-12-312021-12-292022-01-032021-12-292022-01-042021-12-282021-12-282021-12-152021-12-202021-12-292021-12-282022-01-032021-12-242022-01-032021-12-292021-12-152021-12-302022-01-022022-01-032021-12-292021-12-212021-12-302021-12-292021-12-282021-12-292021-12-302021-12-292021-12-282021-12-292021-12-302022-01-042021-12-282021-12-292022-01-032021-12-272021-12-192021-12-302021-12-292021-12-282021-12-312021-12-292022-01-042021-12-292021-12-282021-12-292021-12-282021-12-302021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292022-01-032021-12-312021-12-212021-12-272021-12-282021-12-302021-12-312021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292022-01-032021-12-292021-12-292022-01-032022-01-032021-12-312022-01-012022-01-032021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-312021-12-312021-12-29 --2021-12-282022-01-042021-12-302022-01-182021-12-292021-12-292021-12-302022-01-032021-12-292021-12-292022-01-042021-12-292021-12-282021-12-292021-12-272021-12-312021-12-212022-01-022022-01-032021-12-292021-12-31 --2021-12-312021-12-292021-12-282021-12-282021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-302022-01-012022-01-042021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-312021-12-292021-12-312022-01-032021-12-312022-01-032021-12-312021-12-292021-12-302021-12-30 --2021-12-292021-12-31 --2022-01-162021-12-302022-01-042021-12-292021-12-292021-12-282021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-302022-01-052021-12-292021-12-292021-12-162021-12-292021-12-232021-12-292021-12-312022-01-012021-12-292021-12-272021-12-292022-01-042021-12-302021-12-312021-12-292022-01-042021-12-302021-12-262021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-292021-12-312021-12-29 --2021-12-312021-12-302021-12-29 --2021-12-312021-12-282021-12-292021-12-292022-01-042021-12-292022-01-042021-12-142021-12-292021-12-282021-12-272021-12-282021-12-292022-01-032022-01-032021-12-202021-12-142021-12-292021-12-282021-12-28 --2021-12-282021-12-282021-12-302021-12-302022-01-032021-12-302021-12-292021-12-302021-12-302021-12-282021-12-292021-12-152021-12-292021-12-292021-12-262021-12-282021-12-29 -- --2021-12-302021-12-292021-12-292021-12-282021-12-302021-12-282021-12-312021-12-292021-12-30
Peak daily increment 551 576 133 376 349 266 451 450 160 263 369 293 424 222 633 991 909 317 560 418 323 393 432 1110 760 2616 341 547 486 329 228 902 114 795 356 1319 419 259 893 213 525 708 1097 315 982 255 303 295 327 580 634 605 714 335 314 1164 338 538 269 465 728 200 491 495 214 401 1127 1063 391 207 206 420 1479 153 474 34 414 318 195 880 152 1773 915 146 313 1198 435 438 335 201 276 753 167 901 985 685 234 944 392 376 918 394 219 366 439 279 260 220 324 947 297 564 220 296 123 371 886 375 219 358 471 239 205 570 969 496 226 162 250 665 344 2065 271 171 287 252 927 302 338 2307 512 200 626 249 810 304 372 659 218 415 172 257 819 385 309 278 569 808 322 276 741 451 297 295 329 237 188 826 438 264 312 746 454 1284 603 1361 402 2176 942 204 1048 274 246 431 1754 526 403 163 125 1600 295 727 136 202 249 630 120 186 377 540 339 618 247 760 185 195 311 549 332 323 917 299 954 526 674 398 175 338 468 295 269 1313 460 190 418 797 187 278 504 1133 332 771 447 157 745 40 300 282 379 492 530 483 320 440 352 824 550 226 391 709 1032 205 528 139 713 277 208 899 323 217 304 231 82 133 936 895 287 292 210 1076 260 269 1676 23 769 342 535 267 314 159 297 623 166 332 285 1217 309 194 312 405 298 344 607 501 509 1185 293 376 731 373 245 245 263 998 819 657 285 220 1078 223 636 346 959 591 756 198 225 445 334 273 343 226 574 320 253 354 107 989 748 237 247 433 301 1186 824 777 1319 722 350 279 298 178 292 331 82 302 408 215 547 257 333 674 1284 970 242 347 1299 811 221 212 404 245 392 352 258 520
Days since peak 30 31 30 26 31 28 30 32 30 31 30 30 30 30 29 30 25 29 30 30 28 30 30 28 38 26 30 24 25 30 26 30 24 30 30 24 30 30 31 37 31 31 28 30 38 30 31 30 24 30 31 26 44 28 29 31 25 30 31 30 32 30 29 30 31 30 28 29 30 31 31 30 29 32 31 31 30 30 31 28 30 24 26 30 29 38 31 24 30 28 30 30 30 30 26 30 30 26 28 31 30 30 30 32 30 30 29 30 31 28 24 30 30 31 27 37 33 30 38 30 30 25 30 30 30 31 29 29 28 25 30 30 29 28 30 29 39 36 31 44 30 30 39 29 38 30 30 30 31 24 30 30 30 30 31 30 29 30 28 30 28 30 25 30 24 31 31 44 39 30 31 25 35 25 30 44 29 26 25 30 38 29 30 31 30 29 30 31 30 29 24 31 30 25 32 40 29 30 31 28 30 24 30 31 30 31 29 30 30 30 25 28 38 32 31 29 28 30 30 30 30 30 25 30 30 25 25 28 27 25 30 30 30 28 28 30 31 24 29 10 30 30 29 25 30 30 24 30 31 30 32 28 38 26 25 30 28 28 30 31 31 30 30 30 29 27 24 30 30 30 28 30 28 25 28 25 28 30 29 29 30 28 12 29 24 30 30 31 30 30 30 29 23 30 30 43 30 36 30 28 27 30 32 30 24 29 28 30 24 29 33 30 30 30 30 28 30 28 29 30 28 31 30 30 24 30 24 45 30 31 32 31 30 25 25 39 45 30 31 31 31 31 29 29 25 29 30 29 29 31 30 44 30 30 33 31 30 29 30 30 31 29 31 28 30 29
Last total 39800 39704 13256 23750 30370 19739 38872 36869 12964 61557 33653 33014 30806 48140 17661 57027 97566 71914 19040 51030 40504 30452 42989 47769 94835 64490 280014 27985 46897 38484 18470 20446 78001 15742 95605 30629 139537 36588 26541 82033 20621 37132 68270 120109 27460 82486 25426 25709 28340 27116 53791 46161 53898 28763 53583 26939 32955 90191 26962 41268 23900 35336 71726 10651 47637 46407 24358 37142 95276 89154 25611 23956 22803 32724 105620 11958 46813 2478 23087 17787 21133 103263 15756 141733 88437 12633 30144 96678 38033 29455 31539 20574 21598 65834 14275 48993 85465 70102 24340 86321 25260 33175 93261 28736 17946 26792 26147 24825 36911 27283 20589 21320 23817 79231 31221 45706 23146 32334 10617 35891 78101 34699 20871 28432 28167 35655 24386 21827 32394 74402 34374 23728 16061 20138 54939 31460 154793 30230 18920 28799 22405 70486 32794 23355 70486 38405 19467 48785 23428 65255 25393 38328 63043 22531 27344 20553 27633 71642 36118 28298 22251 32230 78956 28552 29568 75111 40111 23996 17458 31570 12921 26671 55679 34343 26369 29721 69684 44303 110313 47520 86708 34660 215909 98845 20759 74033 26537 25094 37654 138068 59855 41724 14357 13014 157331 29128 71599 12258 22946 17617 54571 15571 18464 35294 44761 34062 42366 19685 73629 19542 17153 14074 38745 33179 29795 82982 31683 87279 39164 52591 29045 18962 24471 41104 30108 25606 91345 40132 15568 45931 59720 16655 26295 59880 80359 31153 87805 36084 16008 65956 1807 37618 22355 25470 25947 56194 60687 52103 22882 40953 42041 81685 38254 21970 39071 45607 64084 17245 48769 11309 63936 21764 19917 17455 74129 29184 21027 31016 25346 8442 10195 78231 90560 23161 17521 25831 76123 22621 28443 145821 1599 68100 40982 56367 28334 22179 17679 34641 27206 68231 15913 19893 32368 20549 80596 27224 21687 31469 30821 31307 28570 43516 60286 46492 78772 27054 38181 52986 33911 23258 22184 18777 81405 57326 68100 28349 22983 77749 22588 55341 36058 61735 53026 65510 21320 21663 25475 47417 32220 29023 19137 31428 24316 49887 31540 29354 23793 12697 82410 67602 26744 21293 32075 29402 94370 74641 70756 88168 59842 34455 27102 28274 31911 19693 29663 33202 9507 22480 30021 21189 41506 23426 34088 52145 94772 101668 27834 37355 85349 26275 41776 71102 24116 23386 33627 26416 43087 27875 23042 47242
Last daily increment 0 0 83 72 105 0 0 0 0 0 210 102 171 273 110 158 457 196 48 136 320 135 201 228 0 235 871 89 92 120 0 82 173 73 448 199 445 173 158 291 53 0 378 589 153 345 97 53 108 47 142 0 163 222 240 89 203 1 87 1 68 0 419 0 175 174 190 215 436 376 95 152 144 110 0 0 225 0 0 43 98 610 108 509 307 39 158 315 190 131 84 116 0 271 75 0 274 411 156 351 0 0 411 0 148 159 0 195 158 128 0 110 0 310 141 304 141 164 40 202 264 104 133 115 256 0 138 142 0 0 0 122 129 50 187 128 0 236 68 119 116 238 206 0 225 114 121 172 71 227 88 196 274 156 76 121 153 187 261 142 83 0 381 107 193 349 170 30 0 167 0 143 185 121 146 220 270 226 399 94 260 117 699 282 146 237 87 113 0 279 259 246 76 107 336 120 293 54 113 0 282 83 143 208 0 0 141 0 409 109 0 0 0 189 121 270 141 198 0 0 0 112 94 171 184 139 0 199 125 265 188 52 115 327 280 132 233 155 51 114 0 281 0 73 0 314 390 222 0 131 299 266 105 103 187 0 1 48 270 56 120 70 41 146 220 141 151 157 163 28 46 161 315 106 0 152 217 96 134 491 0 390 210 258 224 0 87 259 138 354 115 106 167 66 0 194 124 188 90 191 96 138 268 156 245 124 213 131 136 91 86 0 257 172 280 169 157 247 148 198 206 1 341 165 71 100 173 259 132 178 159 206 128 148 165 189 0 81 241 176 149 117 0 225 311 281 225 327 133 178 156 227 185 97 97 214 64 0 114 123 0 183 259 183 238 604 182 260 300 205 361 197 138 182 0 142 224 74 117 277
Last week 889 825 673 544 759 318 2205 2357 177 3739 1554 882 1170 2240 830 1313 3620 1684 399 1325 2318 1143 1433 1949 4416 1564 7654 767 879 943 294 593 1667 658 3504 1506 4248 1311 1225 2339 386 571 2808 4412 1276 2715 844 547 854 568 1142 759 1440 1881 1844 771 1527 1712 841 882 626 1100 2923 140 1265 1500 1269 1669 3286 2914 671 1227 1063 749 1734 155 1590 43 361 354 900 4295 653 4900 2887 431 1280 2380 1359 1106 721 861 304 2169 497 1095 2414 2983 1017 3051 448 504 3086 321 1009 1302 300 1435 1101 956 275 921 317 2682 1115 2384 1111 1318 308 1488 1910 714 936 755 1756 566 1053 1172 951 1272 396 989 852 541 1615 885 1569 1570 649 932 1001 1894 1431 190 1729 929 843 1445 782 1682 714 1656 2307 1133 710 814 1178 1703 1984 1086 540 580 2876 776 1505 2668 1522 448 236 1393 174 939 1480 1055 1136 1698 2236 1751 3161 884 1973 1001 6283 2639 980 1859 873 903 2413 2574 2119 1628 515 758 3126 868 2193 529 776 252 1858 759 1041 1459 1897 2061 1121 304 3225 888 274 261 525 1390 908 2307 1077 1752 944 2733 310 956 624 1216 1170 1022 953 1499 901 2032 1632 476 895 2938 2455 1325 2154 1194 375 1245 44 2112 378 658 419 2809 2850 1744 338 977 2159 2138 1014 772 1352 448 787 325 2174 422 1201 515 367 926 1857 1309 995 996 1272 289 328 1485 2682 820 216 1316 1570 803 1075 4402 12 2644 1679 1873 1552 292 654 2000 1019 2777 831 909 1374 637 927 1452 949 1484 773 1386 897 1268 2345 1203 1889 1040 1637 986 1210 715 777 236 1987 1681 2471 1404 1109 2156 974 1726 1483 1108 2366 1547 719 716 1469 1999 1084 1239 1054 1311 937 1089 1305 1511 422 635 1954 1463 1160 763 600 1600 2498 2383 1753 2597 1240 1605 1168 1623 1341 854 977 1484 379 209 760 859 568 1290 1955 1534 1994 4818 1438 1775 2313 1399 2605 2159 1269 1269 544 1212 1827 701 960 1951
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-06-292021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-07-162021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-20 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-06-062021-07-162021-10-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-142021-10-192021-10-102021-08-042021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-10-18 --2021-07-142021-10-18 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012021-07-15 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-242021-06-29 --2021-09-062021-07-152021-08-182021-08-262021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302021-06-05 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-07-142021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-06 --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-142021-07-122021-07-142021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-172021-07-14 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-10-142021-09-02 -- --2021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-14 --2021-07-152021-07-162021-07-15 --2021-07-112021-07-162021-07-152021-07-29 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-06-292021-08-182021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-122021-09-15 --2021-07-142021-07-112021-07-15 -- -- --2021-09-032021-08-172021-07-152021-07-11 -- --2021-08-302021-09-29 --2021-10-182021-07-122021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-08-032021-07-152021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-06-29 -- --2021-06-29 --2021-07-15 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192021-06-062021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-15 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-09-012021-08-17 -- --2021-07-162021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-17 -- --2021-10-042021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-06-282021-07-152021-07-142021-07-13 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-182021-07-152021-06-29 --2021-08-182021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-08-192021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-08-172021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-07-172021-07-142021-07-152021-10-182021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-142021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-162021-07-08
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 260 276 70 139 152 144 287 379 176 943 127 159 126 202 293 107 478 103 176 68 218 621 4 258 94 72 97 74 160 249 177 75 159 115 101 227 67 170 203 269 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 142 114 708 607 376 53 101 229 122 140 92 86 64 202 400 269 137 188 133 51 135 183 71 122 100 65 157 15 61 22 105 58 110 130 185 88 171 421 67 56 82 274 123 941 95 63 113 163 229 84 156 152 61 65 146 54 151 87 82 90 203 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 247 316 301 117 707 51 213 80 99 120 41 47 448 96 169 40 164 72 72 101 274 115 49 31 184 116 384 105 164 84 94 256 621 176 291 228 77 96 322 87 264 158 255 143 118 343 297 114 289 268 40 140 67 213 75 73 49 116 70 253 94 78 123 96 482 169 277 202 118 49 345 86 85 470 128 68 77 92 106 303 200 152 243 70 131 87 77 41 243 339 240 201 428 57 145 101 329 219 85 139 137 116 92 150 92 78 105 131 134 61 226 286 64 79 352 157 313 195 144 73 69 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 66 99 63 117 120 74 138
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 14 2 28 49 59 18 128 103 28 53 51 54 99 179 71 406 33 65 31 75 124 39 190 42 75 22 83 100 2 100 38 34 44 31 68 97 73 58 22 21 92 25 46 68 129 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 64 25 227 190 143 16 39 112 49 43 39 41 32 63 142 128 56 26 66 49 49 57 36 30 35 6 25 7 38 23 49 80 41 67 199 29 19 32 75 54 199 21 30 40 76 57 27 54 75 27 32 32 18 70 38 41 37 59 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 107 143 74 44 295 20 66 35 43 51 17 14 164 48 77 11 75 30 20 36 58 32 24 2 75 54 120 38 54 32 39 68 174 83 115 88 22 40 111 42 112 50 87 19 108 49 51 68 125 18 61 17 69 20 21 56 25 104 38 35 40 33 189 80 91 64 40 22 58 40 149 59 28 35 35 42 55 94 56 65 34 49 36 27 17 118 78 85 62 96 24 64 24 103 85 30 55 35 37 23 33 36 51 61 29 72 125 31 36 172 70 94 86 69 36 40 47 87 17 37 42 89 24 58 112 316 69 28 31 52 43 35 59

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-01-29 to 2022-02-04

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-01-28 39800 39704 13256 23750 30370 19739 38872 36869 12964 61557 33653 33014 30806 48140 17661 57027 97566 71914 19040 51030 40504 30452 42989 47769 94835 64490 280014 27985 46897 38484 18470 20446 78001 15742 95605 30629 139537 36588 26541 82033 20621 37132 68270 120109 27460 82486 25426 25709 28340 27116 53791 46161 53898 28763 53583 26939 32955 90191 26962 41268 23900 35336 71726 10651 47637 46407 24358 37142 95276 89154 25611 23956 22803 32724 105620 11958 46813 2478 23087 17787 21133 103263 15756 141733 88437 12633 30144 96678 38033 29455 31539 20574 21598 65834 14275 48993 85465 70102 24340 86321 25260 33175 93261 28736 17946 26792 26147 24825 36911 27283 20589 21320 23817 79231 31221 45706 23146 32334 10617 35891 78101 34699 20871 28432 28167 35655 24386 21827 32394 74402 34374 23728 16061 20138 54939 31460 154793 30230 18920 28799 22405 70486 32794 23355 70486 38405 19467 48785 23428 65255 25393 38328 63043 22531 27344 20553 27633 71642 36118 28298 22251 32230 78956 28552 29568 75111 40111 23996 17458 31570 12921 26671 55679 34343 26369 29721 69684 44303 110313 47520 86708 34660 215909 98845 20759 74033 26537 25094 37654 138068 59855 41724 14357 13014 157331 29128 71599 12258 22946 17617 54571 15571 18464 35294 44761 34062 42366 19685 73629 19542 17153 14074 38745 33179 29795 82982 31683 87279 39164 52591 29045 18962 24471 41104 30108 25606 91345 40132 15568 45931 59720 16655 26295 59880 80359 31153 87805 36084 16008 65956 1807 37618 22355 25470 25947 56194 60687 52103 22882 40953 42041 81685 38254 21970 39071 45607 64084 17245 48769 11309 63936 21764 19917 17455 74129 29184 21027 31016 25346 8442 10195 78231 90560 23161 17521 25831 76123 22621 28443 145821 1599 68100 40982 56367 28334 22179 17679 34641 27206 68231 15913 19893 32368 20549 80596 27224 21687 31469 30821 31307 28570 43516 60286 46492 78772 27054 38181 52986 33911 23258 22184 18777 81405 57326 68100 28349 22983 77749 22588 55341 36058 61735 53026 65510 21320 21663 25475 47417 32220 29023 19137 31428 24316 49887 31540 29354 23793 12697 82410 67602 26744 21293 32075 29402 94370 74641 70756 88168 59842 34455 27102 28274 31911 19693 29663 33202 9507 22480 30021 21189 41506 23426 34088 52145 94772 101668 27834 37355 85349 26275 41776 71102 24116 23386 33627 26416 43087 27875 23042 47242
2022-01-29 39950 39850 13350 23840 30510 19810 39110 37120 13070 61970 33860 33160 30980 48360 17780 57230 98100 72230 19110 51290 40830 30630 43210 48080 95010 64710 281400 28120 47070 38660 18530 20540 78260 15830 96100 30810 140200 36760 26720 82610 20710 37310 68380 120700 27650 82750 25560 25840 28470 27230 54130 46280 54160 28950 53790 27070 33000 90560 27110 41540 23930 35500 72160 10680 47960 46550 24530 37380 95810 89630 25720 24120 22860 32870 106500 12060 47060 2487 23150 17840 21270 103500 15850 142600 88900 12710 30330 97120 38160 29630 31710 20660 21680 66160 14340 49200 85880 70510 24500 86940 25360 33290 93850 28800 18070 26970 26330 25040 37020 27450 20650 21440 23950 79650 31420 46040 23260 32520 10670 35970 78510 34840 20870 28520 28170 35980 24540 21920 32530 74700 34440 23850 16060 20230 55200 31640 155900 30450 19020 28920 22550 70800 32820 23450 70760 38670 19610 49040 23550 65580 25550 38570 63400 22670 27460 20670 27790 71990 36390 28460 22350 32540 79480 28690 29780 75610 40360 24090 17490 31770 13000 26730 56000 34520 26530 29960 70150 44460 110900 47680 87020 34830 217700 99300 20900 74360 26670 25230 37930 138900 60260 41820 14390 13020 158300 29280 71800 12340 23060 17660 54860 15610 18490 35510 45020 34300 42660 19810 74110 19580 17250 14120 38840 33380 29940 83510 31840 87990 39420 53030 29110 19080 24570 41270 30170 25730 91970 40360 15690 46200 60120 16720 26440 60180 80830 31340 88300 36250 16080 66190 1814 37700 22430 25600 26040 56610 61080 52360 22940 41140 42210 82180 38440 22090 39190 45940 64220 17310 48920 11380 64170 21830 19990 17510 74450 29360 21170 31150 25520 8491 10240 78500 91500 23280 17650 25880 76610 22760 28590 146900 1601 68510 41220 56650 28350 22240 17740 34920 27340 68650 16030 20050 32550 20640 80790 27270 21820 31670 30960 31480 28720 43750 60610 46690 79130 27170 38180 53170 34100 23370 22290 18900 81780 57610 68590 28540 23130 78170 22730 55560 36260 62010 53400 65790 21420 21750 25700 47750 32380 29110 19280 31470 24450 50160 31630 29520 23860 12730 82900 68010 26760 21420 32150 29620 94810 74970 71130 88530 60270 34680 27280 28490 32080 19820 29770 33420 9567 22530 30160 21300 41730 23610 34210 52410 95110 102300 28030 37480 85890 26520 42120 71490 24190 23410 33720 26590 43210 27970 23210 47370
2022-01-30 40310 40180 13420 24050 30670 20020 39280 37240 13130 62210 33960 33380 31140 48650 17870 57470 98700 72910 19190 51540 40990 30850 43460 48480 95480 64980 284100 28300 47540 39050 18630 20690 78920 15920 96450 30930 141500 36950 26890 83170 20800 37430 68660 121300 27840 83150 25740 25960 28630 27520 54430 46510 54700 29190 54070 27320 33180 90890 27390 41740 23990 35720 72550 10760 48260 46760 24620 37620 96510 90240 25890 24200 22970 33190 107000 12130 47320 2515 23310 18000 21440 103900 15940 144300 89780 12790 30450 97500 38350 29940 31850 20790 21750 66600 14380 49580 86610 70750 24680 87610 25650 33600 94430 29000 18240 27080 26470 25300 37200 27660 20850 21550 24050 80290 31700 46270 23420 32650 10760 36150 78890 34990 20960 28620 28360 36210 24650 22060 32720 75500 34630 23960 16130 20410 55790 31830 156600 30580 19140 29050 22700 71170 32980 23500 71200 38900 19760 49320 23720 65910 25680 38860 63870 22710 27780 20760 27880 72340 36570 28640 22460 32730 80020 28900 29920 76130 40660 24330 17610 31970 13060 26840 56300 34870 26660 30120 70640 44720 111900 48010 87370 35150 219400 100200 20980 74720 26860 25440 38020 139700 60680 42000 14460 13110 159200 29540 72110 12410 23160 17740 55170 15710 18610 35700 45300 34440 43280 19890 74680 19680 17310 14240 39080 33530 30140 84560 32050 88540 39600 53520 29350 19170 24720 41520 30280 25890 92420 40660 15780 46400 60940 16850 26640 60600 81880 31520 88760 36510 16220 66700 1827 37920 22500 25880 26280 57080 61420 52610 23070 41530 42480 82620 38890 22220 39340 46180 64480 17440 49210 11510 64730 21920 20160 17600 75050 29570 21270 31300 25660 8577 10290 79110 92310 23430 17730 26000 77070 22940 28690 148000 1606 68940 41470 57020 28490 22380 17840 35060 27460 69010 16090 20210 32690 20800 81390 27430 21920 31840 31240 31590 28960 44340 60900 46910 79550 27320 38290 53580 34340 23540 22400 18990 82210 58260 69060 28670 23210 79240 22860 55830 36400 62250 53760 66370 21570 21870 25890 48250 32530 29270 19330 31610 24570 50410 31820 29750 23940 12810 83390 68380 26870 21530 32220 29770 95680 75580 71470 88980 60640 34870 27490 28560 32180 19960 29900 33560 9621 22700 30380 21460 41910 23720 34470 52940 95810 102700 28140 37690 86450 26780 42240 72200 24340 23540 33930 26790 43430 28210 23460 47630
2022-01-31 40570 40430 13500 24210 30870 20160 39500 37450 13210 62560 34110 33560 31300 49050 17980 57720 99400 73410 19250 51810 41230 31040 43690 48840 96250 65250 286100 28460 47880 39340 18710 20810 79390 16030 96870 31080 142500 37210 27060 83690 20870 37590 69150 121900 28030 83600 25910 26080 28780 27720 54750 46700 55110 29530 54380 27510 33410 91280 27600 42030 24090 35920 72950 10820 48560 47010 24750 37860 97130 90790 26030 24310 23120 33420 107600 12190 47570 2534 23420 18110 21590 104700 16020 145500 90460 12890 30600 97950 38580 30180 31990 20950 21840 66980 14430 49860 87190 71070 24850 88330 25850 33820 95030 29130 18420 27220 26600 25600 37390 27840 20990 21670 24150 80820 31950 46550 23610 32800 10830 36370 79270 35150 21090 28710 28550 36480 24780 22310 32880 76060 34760 24070 16260 20550 56220 32050 157400 30750 19250 29200 22850 71580 33190 23560 71560 39160 19910 49620 23880 66270 25830 39130 64280 22790 28000 20860 28000 72710 36790 28810 22600 32990 80660 29070 30090 76710 40940 24510 17680 32170 13110 27000 56620 35130 26800 30320 71190 45040 112800 48260 87760 35400 221100 100900 21090 75070 27020 25610 38210 140600 61120 42280 14540 13220 159900 29750 72490 12490 23270 17810 55530 15840 18780 35900 45570 34630 43750 20010 75200 19840 17390 14330 39260 33710 30320 85360 32240 89080 39850 53990 29510 19270 24840 41720 30450 26080 92810 40980 15880 46620 61560 16940 26820 61160 82660 31780 89300 36720 16320 67080 1838 38250 22590 26080 26450 57650 61780 52970 23170 41830 42870 83090 39220 22340 39520 46390 64680 17540 49560 11610 65140 22010 20280 17740 75520 29770 21390 31480 25810 8645 10340 79560 93130 23560 17830 26230 77560 23100 28800 149100 1610 69360 41800 57340 28750 22480 17960 35260 27590 69390 16180 20400 32850 20920 81800 27640 22040 32030 31450 31730 29160 44760 61210 47180 79950 27520 38480 53880 34560 23680 22510 19080 82640 58730 69610 28830 23320 80010 22990 56130 36570 62530 54120 66810 21730 21990 26100 48660 32680 29460 19430 31860 24700 50650 32020 30030 24020 12920 83900 68740 27050 21680 32360 29950 96340 76050 71810 89500 60980 35080 27680 28690 32310 20090 30070 33730 9676 22810 30560 21640 42100 23860 34820 53340 96330 103300 28290 37980 86960 27090 42460 72750 24560 23740 34080 26980 43710 28370 23680 47960
2022-02-01 40790 40640 13580 24330 31010 20280 39750 37690 13250 62950 34290 33720 31460 49370 18090 57990 99900 73820 19350 52050 41500 31230 43910 49170 97010 65540 287900 28610 48140 39580 18770 20920 79770 16150 97310 31240 143400 37420 27220 84080 20950 37720 69610 122500 28220 84020 26050 26200 28920 27890 54980 46860 55440 29860 54700 27670 33650 91600 27780 42260 24160 36110 73350 10860 48780 47240 24890 38100 97690 91300 26160 24450 23280 33610 108100 12240 47810 2549 23510 18190 21730 105300 16110 146600 91050 12980 30760 98370 38770 30390 32120 21080 21920 67330 14480 50100 87680 71410 25010 88900 26010 34000 95550 29240 18590 27370 26710 25850 37550 28010 21090 21790 24220 81300 32170 46850 23790 32970 10900 36580 79620 35270 21210 28800 28760 36670 24920 22480 33030 76510 34870 24190 16370 20670 56570 32220 157900 30930 19350 29340 22990 71900 33380 23600 71890 39330 20050 49860 24020 66590 25940 39370 64670 22900 28160 20960 28140 73040 37030 28970 22700 33140 81200 29230 30270 77210 41200 24640 17740 32360 13160 27160 56860 35350 26950 30530 71650 45270 113500 48460 88110 35610 222500 101400 21210 75390 27170 25770 38440 141100 61480 42500 14610 13340 160600 29930 72810 12570 23380 17870 55820 15970 18930 36100 45840 34850 44130 20080 75690 19960 17460 14400 39400 33890 30470 86030 32410 89520 40080 54450 29630 19370 24950 41910 30610 26250 93140 41260 15990 46860 62060 17030 26980 61620 83300 31990 89710 36910 16410 67390 1847 38570 22680 26250 26590 58130 62150 53300 23250 42070 43240 83510 39480 22460 39720 46550 64850 17620 49880 11700 65460 22090 20370 17880 75920 29950 21520 31630 25970 8705 10390 79930 93800 23680 17890 26450 77870 23250 28930 150000 1613 69760 42090 57640 28980 22570 18050 35490 27720 69780 16280 20550 33020 21030 82120 27820 22160 32220 31630 31880 29330 45100 61520 47380 80290 27690 38680 54120 34760 23800 22620 19160 83010 59120 70060 29000 23440 80600 23120 56410 36750 62780 54480 67170 21860 22120 26320 49030 32840 29650 19540 32090 24830 50870 32230 30290 24090 13010 84280 69030 27220 21810 32470 30150 96890 76450 72110 89960 61250 35290 27860 28860 32450 20220 30220 33920 9731 22900 30720 21790 42240 24020 35110 53670 96770 103900 28460 38260 87350 27310 42740 73230 24760 23920 34210 27160 44030 28510 23860 48250
2022-02-02 40990 40830 13670 24440 31100 20380 40000 37940 13300 63360 34470 33880 31630 49730 18200 58170 100600 74210 19430 52300 41780 31420 44130 49500 97660 65770 289500 28750 48380 39800 18830 21020 80120 16270 97770 31400 144200 37600 27390 84410 21000 37840 70080 123100 28410 84450 26200 26270 29050 28040 55200 47010 55760 30170 55020 27830 33860 91950 27960 42430 24230 36290 73760 10900 49000 47470 25040 38330 98250 91800 26270 24590 23450 33790 108500 12290 48050 2563 23590 18270 21870 105800 16200 147700 91600 13040 30930 98750 38960 30600 32250 21210 21970 67660 14540 50320 88160 71770 25170 89360 26160 34160 96010 29340 18760 27530 26810 26120 37710 28180 21190 21900 24300 81770 32380 47150 23980 33140 10960 36770 79940 35410 21330 28890 29030 36840 25060 22670 33170 76930 34960 24300 16480 20780 56900 32370 158400 31120 19450 29480 23130 72230 33570 23630 72200 39500 20180 50100 24150 66890 26080 39620 65050 23010 28320 21060 28280 73330 37270 29130 22790 33310 81680 29380 30460 77660 41460 24770 17800 32560 13190 27330 57120 35560 27100 30750 72020 45530 114100 48660 88430 35810 223500 102000 21330 75720 27310 25920 38680 141600 61800 42730 14680 13450 161000 30100 73050 12650 23490 17920 56120 16070 19070 36310 46100 35080 44490 20150 76180 20080 17530 14470 39530 34080 30620 86660 32570 89900 40250 54890 29740 19480 25060 42090 30770 26410 93420 41510 16100 47100 62550 17110 27130 62060 83900 32180 90140 37090 16500 67680 1855 38870 22740 26410 26720 58560 62520 53560 23320 42300 43540 83860 39730 22580 39900 46710 65020 17690 50180 11780 65770 22170 20470 18040 76300 30140 21650 31780 26140 8762 10430 80270 94430 23800 17940 26630 78140 23400 29070 150800 1615 70160 42420 57940 29200 22640 18120 35740 27840 70180 16380 20700 33190 21130 82410 28000 22280 32410 31800 32030 29500 45420 61840 47560 80580 27830 38880 54350 34960 23920 22730 19220 83310 59490 70450 29180 23570 81160 23250 56630 36940 63000 54840 67520 21970 22240 26540 49400 32990 29820 19660 32260 24960 51050 32400 30530 24150 13110 84610 69300 27370 21920 32580 30340 97420 76840 72460 90350 61480 35510 28050 29030 32600 20350 30360 34110 9787 22980 30870 21910 42390 24180 35390 53990 97180 104400 28630 38500 87650 27540 43030 73680 24950 24100 34330 27340 44300 28640 24040 48520
2022-02-03 41170 41000 13760 24540 31200 20470 40260 38220 13320 63800 34660 34030 31800 50040 18310 58340 101100 74540 19470 52510 42080 31600 44350 49810 98340 65980 291000 28890 48580 39990 18890 21120 80420 16360 98240 31570 144900 37800 27560 84720 21060 37910 70450 123700 28600 84840 26340 26360 29180 28170 55360 47140 56040 30450 55230 27980 34050 92190 28110 42540 24300 36470 74180 10940 49200 47700 25200 38570 98790 92290 26390 24740 23600 33960 108700 12300 48290 2574 23660 18340 22010 106300 16290 148600 92110 13110 31100 99080 39170 30790 32340 21310 22010 67990 14590 50520 88600 72150 25330 89750 26290 34300 96430 29420 18930 27700 26860 26360 37880 28350 21270 22020 24330 82210 32580 47470 24140 33310 11010 36970 80210 35520 21440 28980 29220 36910 25200 22830 33310 77280 35050 24420 16600 20880 57190 32520 158500 31310 19550 29640 23280 72520 33790 23650 72500 39620 20320 50290 24290 67100 26180 39860 65420 23130 28440 21170 28420 73550 37530 29290 22860 33360 82120 29520 30670 78040 41710 24870 17840 32750 13220 27440 57310 35750 27250 30980 72330 45800 114700 48830 88700 35990 224400 102500 21450 75980 27460 26060 38950 142000 62070 42960 14760 13540 161400 30260 73320 12730 23590 17970 56390 16170 19210 36520 46360 35320 44810 20160 76660 20210 17560 14530 39640 34270 30770 87220 32730 90280 40410 55330 29830 19590 25160 42260 30930 26550 93570 41690 16220 47360 62970 17180 27280 62480 84420 32380 90450 37260 16580 67940 1863 39170 22790 26550 26830 58960 62900 53780 23390 42500 43820 84180 39940 22690 40080 46770 65160 17760 50490 11860 66030 22250 20540 18170 76650 30320 21780 31930 26300 8815 10480 80570 94880 23920 17970 26800 78380 23530 29210 151400 1617 70550 42640 58230 29420 22710 18200 36000 27970 70580 16480 20820 33360 21230 82650 28180 22400 32600 31960 32190 29660 45690 62150 47720 80840 27990 39050 54550 35160 24040 22840 19240 83610 59810 70790 29360 23710 81640 23390 56850 37130 63110 55210 67830 22040 22360 26770 49740 33150 29960 19790 32420 25090 51210 32590 30720 24220 13180 84900 69520 27530 22050 32670 30550 97900 77190 72710 90720 61650 35730 28220 29220 32760 20470 30490 34310 9843 23040 31010 22020 42440 24350 35650 54270 97550 105100 28820 38720 87920 27760 43340 74100 25120 24280 34430 27520 44550 28750 24210 48800
2022-02-04 41340 41170 13850 24630 31310 20550 40530 38500 13340 64240 34860 34170 31970 50300 18420 58480 101500 74860 19520 52640 42390 31780 44570 50120 98500 66190 292500 29020 48760 40180 18940 21210 80700 16430 98710 31740 145500 37950 27730 85100 21110 37940 70800 124300 28790 85170 26470 26420 29310 28300 55520 47270 56310 30690 55440 28110 34240 92280 28270 42570 24370 36650 74590 10970 49380 47850 25360 38810 99320 92770 26490 24890 23730 34110 108800 12310 48530 2585 23730 18400 22140 106900 16380 149500 92600 13160 31280 99350 39340 30970 32440 21430 22020 68310 14650 50720 89020 72530 25490 90140 26410 34430 96870 29490 19060 27880 26870 26530 38020 28510 21340 22140 24350 82640 32770 47790 24270 33500 11070 37140 80470 35610 21570 29070 29520 36950 25350 22960 33450 77610 35120 24540 16710 20980 57460 32630 158600 31510 19650 29750 23430 72730 33960 23670 72790 39740 20450 50460 24420 67310 26270 40100 65780 23260 28560 21280 28570 73730 37790 29450 22950 33400 82520 29650 30870 78410 41960 24970 17880 32950 13230 27560 57500 35930 27410 31220 72610 46030 115300 48990 88900 36160 225300 103000 21580 76180 27600 26200 39230 142300 62360 43180 14830 13630 161800 30410 73600 12800 23700 18010 56640 16250 19330 36730 46620 35570 45110 20180 77130 20320 17570 14580 39740 34460 30910 87760 32890 90490 40460 55770 29910 19700 25260 42420 31110 26680 93620 41890 16340 47610 63380 17250 27420 62810 84910 32530 90730 37430 16660 68180 1870 39440 22810 26690 26930 59300 63290 54020 23450 42690 44110 84450 40140 22810 40260 46810 65300 17830 50730 11930 66280 22310 20620 18300 76980 30500 21910 32080 26470 8865 10530 80850 95190 24030 17980 26930 78620 23670 29360 152000 1619 70950 42850 58520 29610 22770 18290 36270 28100 70990 16590 20940 33530 21330 82870 28360 22520 32800 32110 32350 29820 45940 62470 47880 81070 28120 39250 54740 35350 24150 22940 19260 83880 60110 71070 29560 23850 82080 23520 57030 37330 63170 55570 68130 22120 22450 27000 50080 33310 30140 19920 32590 25230 51350 32760 30910 24280 13260 85200 69720 27660 22160 32700 30760 98350 77540 72920 91070 61810 35940 28400 29430 32920 20590 30600 34510 9900 23090 31150 22130 42480 24530 35880 54530 97900 105700 29010 38950 88250 27970 43680 74500 25240 24440 34530 27700 44770 28850 24380 49050

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-01-29 to 2022-02-04

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-01-28 39800 39704 13256 23750 30370 19739 38872 36869 12964 61557 33653 33014 30806 48140 17661 57027 97566 71914 19040 51030 40504 30452 42989 47769 94835 64490 280014 27985 46897 38484 18470 20446 78001 15742 95605 30629 139537 36588 26541 82033 20621 37132 68270 120109 27460 82486 25426 25709 28340 27116 53791 46161 53898 28763 53583 26939 32955 90191 26962 41268 23900 35336 71726 10651 47637 46407 24358 37142 95276 89154 25611 23956 22803 32724 105620 11958 46813 2478 23087 17787 21133 103263 15756 141733 88437 12633 30144 96678 38033 29455 31539 20574 21598 65834 14275 48993 85465 70102 24340 86321 25260 33175 93261 28736 17946 26792 26147 24825 36911 27283 20589 21320 23817 79231 31221 45706 23146 32334 10617 35891 78101 34699 20871 28432 28167 35655 24386 21827 32394 74402 34374 23728 16061 20138 54939 31460 154793 30230 18920 28799 22405 70486 32794 23355 70486 38405 19467 48785 23428 65255 25393 38328 63043 22531 27344 20553 27633 71642 36118 28298 22251 32230 78956 28552 29568 75111 40111 23996 17458 31570 12921 26671 55679 34343 26369 29721 69684 44303 110313 47520 86708 34660 215909 98845 20759 74033 26537 25094 37654 138068 59855 41724 14357 13014 157331 29128 71599 12258 22946 17617 54571 15571 18464 35294 44761 34062 42366 19685 73629 19542 17153 14074 38745 33179 29795 82982 31683 87279 39164 52591 29045 18962 24471 41104 30108 25606 91345 40132 15568 45931 59720 16655 26295 59880 80359 31153 87805 36084 16008 65956 1807 37618 22355 25470 25947 56194 60687 52103 22882 40953 42041 81685 38254 21970 39071 45607 64084 17245 48769 11309 63936 21764 19917 17455 74129 29184 21027 31016 25346 8442 10195 78231 90560 23161 17521 25831 76123 22621 28443 145821 1599 68100 40982 56367 28334 22179 17679 34641 27206 68231 15913 19893 32368 20549 80596 27224 21687 31469 30821 31307 28570 43516 60286 46492 78772 27054 38181 52986 33911 23258 22184 18777 81405 57326 68100 28349 22983 77749 22588 55341 36058 61735 53026 65510 21320 21663 25475 47417 32220 29023 19137 31428 24316 49887 31540 29354 23793 12697 82410 67602 26744 21293 32075 29402 94370 74641 70756 88168 59842 34455 27102 28274 31911 19693 29663 33202 9507 22480 30021 21189 41506 23426 34088 52145 94772 101668 27834 37355 85349 26275 41776 71102 24116 23386 33627 26416 43087 27875 23042 47242
2022-01-29 39840 39770 13340 23830 30470 19770 39040 37060 12980 61830 33850 33120 30950 48420 17750 57140 97900 72160 19090 51200 40800 30580 43190 48030 95100 64680 280900 28070 47030 38630 18500 20520 78270 15820 96090 30800 140100 36740 26700 82290 20660 37190 68560 120700 27650 82800 25520 25770 28440 27180 53940 46230 54090 28990 53810 27030 33100 90330 27100 41340 23950 35430 72100 10670 47790 46590 24520 37350 95660 89570 25700 24110 22950 32810 105800 11980 47010 2483 23130 17840 21240 103800 15850 142300 88730 12670 30300 96950 38200 29550 31640 20690 21620 66120 14340 49100 85770 70470 24470 86670 25280 33210 93630 28750 18090 26960 26180 25000 37050 27410 20610 21430 23840 79550 31370 45970 23280 32500 10660 36070 78310 34770 20970 28520 28390 35710 24520 21960 32470 74510 34400 23830 16140 20200 55190 31550 154900 30430 19010 28910 22530 70690 32950 23380 70720 38520 19570 48930 23530 65440 25470 38540 63340 22660 27440 20660 27780 71840 36360 28430 22320 32310 79290 28670 29770 75420 40290 24060 17460 31730 12950 26760 55870 34490 26520 29930 69950 44510 110700 47630 86920 34760 216600 99100 20880 74250 26630 25220 37850 138300 60120 41920 14420 13100 157600 29210 71850 12330 23050 17640 54820 15660 18570 35500 44890 34230 42530 19710 74010 19640 17170 14100 38800 33360 29900 83270 31800 87490 39250 52840 29050 19070 24550 41250 30240 25730 91450 40320 15690 46200 59940 16720 26420 60230 80710 31320 88030 36240 16080 66060 1809 37880 22390 25550 25960 56500 61050 52300 22920 41090 42270 81960 38390 22070 39250 45650 64150 17290 49050 11370 64090 21810 19960 17590 74380 29300 21170 31150 25510 8486 10230 78350 90850 23270 17550 25980 76330 22720 28590 146300 1600 68460 41200 56630 28510 22180 17760 34920 27330 68580 16010 20010 32520 20620 80620 27400 21810 31650 30910 31490 28680 43700 60600 46610 78990 27180 38400 53080 34060 23320 22280 18800 81630 57550 68410 28520 23120 78070 22710 55560 36220 61830 53340 65680 21390 21750 25670 47700 32350 29140 19280 31590 24460 50010 31690 29550 23820 12770 82640 67720 26890 21400 32120 29620 94670 74920 70960 88470 59970 34660 27260 28480 32080 19790 29780 33400 9559 22490 30110 21300 41540 23600 34310 52360 95000 102300 28020 37590 85630 26510 42130 71350 24260 23530 33650 26570 43300 27960 23160 47450
2022-01-30 39960 39890 13420 23930 30550 19830 39240 37270 13000 62140 34000 33260 31100 48740 17860 57300 98600 72410 19130 51430 41050 30720 43370 48370 95500 64860 282400 28160 47250 38820 18530 20600 78640 15910 96510 30970 141000 36940 26860 82670 20710 37250 68850 121200 27840 83150 25680 25840 28560 27290 54130 46310 54420 29250 54040 27150 33260 90510 27250 41440 24020 35550 72530 10690 48000 46790 24640 37580 96250 89960 25770 24230 23090 32940 106100 12010 47200 2495 23180 17900 21360 104300 15930 143200 89300 12720 30440 97210 38410 29740 31730 20800 21640 66400 14380 49240 86070 70820 24620 87080 25340 33290 94090 28790 18240 27110 26210 25210 37210 27530 20660 21560 23900 79920 31570 46230 23430 32680 10690 36280 78560 34860 21060 28580 28650 35780 24630 22110 32550 74720 34460 23960 16210 20270 55440 31640 155200 30590 19090 29060 22650 70980 33110 23400 71040 38700 19690 49170 23640 65670 25570 38760 63680 22750 27580 20760 27920 72080 36590 28580 22380 32400 79750 28770 29960 75880 40510 24140 17500 31930 12970 26860 56080 34700 26650 30140 70250 44750 111200 47750 87120 34910 217800 99700 21010 74520 26780 25370 38050 138800 60490 42110 14480 13200 158200 29340 72190 12400 23140 17670 55090 15760 18700 35680 45070 34430 42740 19750 74510 19760 17200 14140 38880 33510 30040 83760 31950 87740 39360 53170 29100 19170 24620 41440 30380 25870 91610 40520 15810 46440 60220 16780 26550 60650 81200 31500 88380 36410 16150 66270 1815 38130 22410 25670 26020 56940 61340 52510 22960 41300 42550 82270 38550 22160 39410 45730 64240 17350 49340 11440 64380 21860 20020 17710 74780 29510 21290 31280 25690 8544 10270 78590 91360 23360 17580 26120 76590 22820 28690 147100 1602 68770 41440 56890 28680 22220 17870 35170 27450 68900 16100 20140 32680 20700 80800 27580 21910 31840 31020 31650 28810 43960 60940 46760 79270 27320 38600 53210 34230 23420 22380 18820 81890 57810 68810 28660 23230 78550 22830 55820 36360 61940 53640 65960 21490 21830 25880 48040 32470 29330 19390 31700 24600 50160 31870 29770 23880 12850 82920 68010 27020 21490 32150 29790 94990 75280 71210 88790 60190 34860 27430 28690 32230 19900 29910 33560 9602 22530 30200 21420 41620 23760 34580 52680 95260 102800 28200 37830 85930 26730 42430 71740 24440 23680 33730 26760 43540 28060 23310 47730
2022-01-31 40130 40010 13510 24010 30650 19880 39480 37540 13050 62520 34180 33390 31290 49160 17970 57490 99200 72630 19170 51640 41330 30880 43560 48750 96010 65090 283900 28260 47460 39000 18570 20700 79020 16020 97040 31210 141900 37170 27050 83110 20760 37310 69300 121800 28040 83580 25830 25930 28700 27410 54350 46390 54700 29600 54290 27270 33490 90840 27380 41570 24110 35690 73000 10700 48230 47020 24770 37830 96910 90390 25830 24400 23250 33060 106500 12030 47440 2505 23220 17950 21520 104900 16010 144200 89910 12790 30600 97610 38620 29950 31860 20920 21690 66730 14450 49350 86390 71260 24800 87530 25430 33380 94630 28840 18400 27280 26260 25450 37380 27660 20740 21710 23950 80340 31780 46540 23610 32880 10730 36530 78870 34980 21190 28630 28910 35870 24760 22350 32620 74950 34510 24120 16290 20350 55810 31770 155400 30770 19180 29200 22770 71290 33300 23430 71340 38900 19830 49420 23760 65950 25690 39030 64100 22850 27690 20890 28070 72370 36830 28760 22470 32490 80280 28880 30170 76330 40790 24230 17540 32160 13000 27010 56310 34890 26790 30360 70640 45060 111800 47880 87370 35120 219200 100200 21150 74820 26960 25520 38300 139300 60940 42380 14560 13310 158800 29500 72580 12470 23230 17700 55410 15880 18850 35870 45270 34660 42920 19810 75070 19890 17250 14180 38950 33690 30190 84240 32140 88050 39500 53520 29160 19270 24670 41650 30560 26050 91750 40740 15930 46700 60520 16860 26680 61230 81700 31740 88740 36610 16230 66530 1819 38420 22460 25810 26090 57500 61650 52830 23010 41520 42950 82650 38680 22260 39610 45800 64320 17400 49650 11520 64630 21930 20100 17870 75060 29750 21420 31450 25890 8599 10310 78840 91980 23470 17620 26290 76930 22920 28820 148000 1603 69120 41750 57170 28870 22260 17980 35470 27570 69240 16210 20340 32870 20810 80980 27790 22030 32040 31130 31830 28940 44210 61320 46990 79570 27500 38840 53330 34410 23550 22520 18860 82200 58070 69290 28840 23360 79010 22970 56100 36560 62060 53950 66290 21600 21920 26100 48390 32630 29550 19510 31880 24750 50350 32060 30020 23930 12930 83260 68300 27190 21620 32240 29980 95300 75700 71500 89150 60420 35070 27640 28940 32430 20050 30070 33740 9647 22570 30300 21570 41730 23940 34930 52960 95480 103300 28440 38130 86280 26980 42830 72090 24660 23880 33810 26960 43830 28170 23480 48030
2022-02-01 40250 40140 13600 24080 30740 19930 39750 37820 13080 62960 34370 33530 31450 49490 18090 57700 99700 72820 19220 51830 41630 31030 43760 49070 96560 65340 285300 28360 47620 39160 18600 20790 79340 16140 97530 31420 142700 37340 27230 83480 20820 37370 69720 122500 28240 83970 25960 26020 28820 27530 54520 46470 54940 29940 54570 27370 33740 91140 27510 41700 24190 35840 73380 10720 48430 47230 24920 38090 97420 90830 25890 24570 23410 33170 106700 12060 47670 2514 23260 18000 21670 105600 16100 145200 90390 12850 30770 97990 38800 30160 31970 21040 21740 67010 14520 49460 86710 71700 24980 87960 25490 33470 95120 28880 18560 27450 26300 25670 37540 27800 20800 21850 23990 80750 31980 46860 23780 33060 10770 36750 79170 35080 21310 28690 29180 35970 24900 22530 32700 75120 34560 24260 16380 20420 56070 31880 155700 30960 19270 29330 22900 71550 33480 23450 71650 39050 19960 49640 23880 66210 25800 39290 64440 22970 27780 21020 28250 72640 37080 28930 22550 32570 80710 28990 30370 76770 41040 24300 17560 32370 13020 27170 56530 35080 26940 30590 70970 45310 112200 47980 87650 35300 220200 100600 21280 75110 27080 25670 38580 139600 61280 42600 14640 13420 159300 29670 72890 12550 23330 17730 55680 16000 18980 36070 45490 34900 43090 19850 75540 20010 17290 14210 39020 33880 30330 84650 32310 88340 39650 53890 29210 19380 24720 41840 30730 26210 91880 40970 16060 46970 60810 16930 26810 61720 82180 31950 89060 36800 16300 66740 1824 38720 22510 25940 26140 58010 61980 53130 23040 41670 43320 83010 38800 22360 39820 45860 64390 17450 49960 11580 64840 21990 20170 18030 75310 29940 21570 31580 26080 8651 10350 79080 92420 23570 17650 26470 77190 23030 28980 148600 1605 69480 42030 57450 29070 22290 18080 35750 27710 69600 16310 20500 33060 20900 81130 27990 22150 32260 31250 32010 29070 44420 61690 47170 79860 27670 39100 53430 34580 23670 22630 18890 82480 58320 69720 29020 23490 79430 23110 56350 36780 62220 54270 66570 21700 22020 26330 48720 32770 29750 19640 32060 24900 50530 32270 30270 23970 13020 83560 68550 27360 21740 32310 30180 95610 76040 71770 89520 60630 35280 27830 29180 32610 20200 30220 33920 9693 22600 30390 21700 41810 24120 35230 53220 95690 103900 28670 38420 86580 27200 43220 72400 24860 24070 33870 27150 44130 28270 23660 48300
2022-02-02 40390 40250 13690 24150 30810 19970 40030 38120 13120 63420 34570 33660 31600 49810 18210 57850 100300 73050 19260 52020 41940 31190 43960 49380 97130 65520 286500 28460 47770 39300 18630 20860 79630 16250 97930 31600 143500 37500 27400 83830 20870 37430 70100 123100 28440 84310 26080 26080 28940 27630 54710 46540 55160 30230 54850 27480 33930 91410 27640 41810 24270 35990 73740 10730 48610 47410 25070 38330 97890 91270 25940 24720 23580 33310 107100 12090 47870 2523 23300 18040 21800 106100 16180 146000 90810 12910 30920 98320 38960 30360 32090 21160 21770 67270 14570 49570 87040 72070 25130 88350 25550 33570 95570 28940 18710 27630 26340 25900 37680 27930 20860 21980 24050 81160 32180 47180 23950 33230 10810 36940 79450 35200 21430 28740 29450 36060 25040 22710 32780 75330 34600 24370 16470 20510 56320 31980 156100 31160 19360 29460 23040 71820 33650 23480 71920 39200 20080 49870 24000 66470 25920 39510 64780 23090 27880 21130 28410 72860 37340 29070 22620 32650 81080 29100 30570 77150 41240 24380 17600 32540 13040 27300 56780 35260 27100 30820 71240 45550 112700 48070 87920 35460 221000 101000 21410 75370 27210 25810 38880 140000 61590 42800 14700 13530 159700 29790 73100 12620 23430 17760 55950 16100 19110 36270 45710 35160 43250 19890 75970 20140 17350 14240 39080 34060 30440 85010 32480 88580 39790 54270 29260 19490 24770 42010 30860 26360 92020 41200 16190 47240 61050 17010 26950 62140 82590 32130 89370 36950 16370 66960 1829 39020 22560 26060 26210 58450 62320 53360 23080 41820 43620 83310 38910 22470 40000 45930 64460 17500 50280 11670 65010 22050 20230 18160 75580 30120 21700 31720 26250 8704 10390 79300 92800 23680 17690 26650 77390 23140 29110 149200 1606 69830 42310 57710 29270 22340 18140 36020 27840 69970 16420 20640 33240 20980 81310 28180 22280 32460 31360 32190 29210 44650 62020 47320 80160 27800 39290 53570 34750 23760 22710 18930 82720 58580 70090 29210 23630 79840 23230 56560 36940 62350 54600 66830 21800 22120 26550 49060 32920 29910 19780 32200 25020 50680 32430 30500 24030 13110 83870 68710 27500 21830 32380 30380 95960 76390 72060 89840 60810 35500 28000 29350 32780 20310 30350 34120 9739 22640 30470 21800 41910 24300 35500 53480 95870 104600 28860 38640 86840 27390 43580 72690 25030 24240 33940 27330 44380 28380 23800 48530
2022-02-03 40500 40350 13790 24210 30900 20010 40310 38430 13140 63890 34770 33780 31760 50100 18320 58010 100900 73300 19300 52190 42250 31350 44160 49690 97700 65700 287800 28560 47900 39430 18660 20930 79840 16340 98310 31780 144100 37680 27560 84190 20930 37480 70450 123600 28650 84650 26210 26150 29070 27720 54880 46620 55340 30470 55110 27590 34100 91590 27770 41930 24340 36150 74070 10750 48810 47580 25230 38550 98270 91670 26000 24850 23710 33450 107300 12120 48090 2532 23340 18080 21890 106600 16270 146800 91200 12970 31090 98660 39130 30540 32190 21270 21790 67510 14620 49670 87380 72420 25290 88780 25610 33680 96000 28980 18860 27810 26380 26070 37810 28070 20910 22090 24080 81540 32370 47480 24110 33390 10850 37120 79690 35290 21540 28810 29700 36130 25180 22870 32860 75520 34640 24490 16570 20580 56530 32100 156200 31360 19450 29580 23170 72060 33840 23500 72180 39320 20200 50050 24120 66720 26030 39730 65110 23220 27980 21240 28540 73080 37610 29210 22690 32710 81480 29220 30790 77510 41480 24450 17630 32700 13060 27400 57000 35420 27260 31060 71580 45800 113200 48170 88210 35600 221800 101400 21530 75670 27290 25940 39190 140300 61930 43000 14760 13600 160200 29910 73350 12700 23530 17790 56180 16190 19250 36470 45950 35420 43410 19930 76380 20260 17380 14270 39140 34240 30560 85320 32600 88840 39940 54660 29310 19610 24830 42170 31020 26490 92100 41380 16330 47520 61260 17070 27080 62550 82950 32320 89640 37130 16440 67120 1833 39300 22600 26180 26270 58870 62680 53590 23120 41950 43890 83600 39030 22570 40180 45990 64520 17540 50570 11740 65220 22130 20310 18290 75790 30260 21830 31850 26390 8755 10430 79520 93190 23780 17720 26820 77680 23250 29230 149800 1607 70190 42530 58000 29470 22360 18230 36300 27950 70350 16530 20780 33390 21050 81500 28360 22400 32650 31460 32380 29330 44870 62340 47460 80450 27930 39470 53710 34930 23850 22800 18950 82940 58840 70430 29380 23780 80190 23360 56810 37100 62450 54930 67040 21890 22210 26790 49400 33060 30060 19930 32310 25140 50830 32560 30720 24060 13190 84160 69090 27620 21930 32440 30590 96340 76780 72290 90240 60980 35730 28170 29530 32940 20420 30470 34310 9788 22670 30570 21910 41970 24480 35740 53710 96120 105200 29020 38840 87170 27560 43860 73030 25170 24380 34000 27510 44620 28460 23920 48730
2022-02-04 40630 40440 13880 24280 30980 20050 40610 38750 13160 64370 34980 33880 31910 50380 18440 58130 101400 73500 19340 52370 42570 31510 44350 49990 98120 65860 289000 28670 48090 39540 18690 20990 80120 16430 98700 31950 144600 37850 27720 84530 20970 37530 70740 124100 28860 84960 26310 26210 29180 27790 55000 46700 55510 30730 55320 27690 34250 91760 27900 42040 24420 36300 74410 10760 49000 47730 25390 38770 99110 92020 26050 24990 23830 33560 107600 12140 48290 2541 23370 18120 21980 107200 16360 147500 91630 13030 31260 98940 39280 30670 32280 21370 21820 67710 14660 49780 87710 72730 25440 89200 25670 33750 96400 29020 19000 27990 26410 26260 37930 28200 20950 22210 24110 81800 32530 47780 24260 33540 10890 37300 79930 35370 21650 28890 29960 36210 25320 23020 32950 75680 34690 24580 16670 20660 56710 32200 156500 31570 19550 29690 23310 72270 33990 23530 72410 39560 20300 50220 24240 66940 26120 39930 65400 23350 28080 21340 28650 73270 37880 29350 22740 32770 81830 29330 31000 77820 41690 24510 17660 32850 13070 27480 57220 35560 27420 31290 71860 46010 113600 48260 88460 35730 222700 101800 21650 75910 27490 26070 39500 140600 62230 43190 14820 13660 160600 30020 73590 12780 23630 17820 56410 16280 19370 36680 46190 35690 43570 19970 76790 20360 17410 14300 39200 34410 30660 85600 32740 89030 40070 55060 29370 19720 24900 42310 31190 26600 92210 41530 16460 47800 61450 17120 27190 62900 83290 32490 89840 37280 16510 67260 1838 39560 22620 26260 26350 59280 63030 53790 23150 42070 44170 83870 39150 22680 40360 46050 64590 17580 50850 11800 65370 22180 20350 18390 75970 30390 21960 31990 26530 8807 10470 79700 93450 23890 17750 26980 77940 23350 29360 150300 1608 70540 42740 58270 29650 22400 18320 36570 28050 70730 16640 20910 33530 21110 81660 28540 22530 32830 31570 32570 29460 45040 62660 47600 80680 28070 39650 53800 35100 23920 22910 18970 83150 59090 70730 29550 23920 80490 23500 56990 37280 62550 55270 67220 21980 22300 27010 49700 33170 30220 20070 32430 25260 50960 32700 30940 24150 13280 84410 69530 27720 22040 32480 30800 96620 77060 72510 90570 61130 35960 28340 29690 33090 20530 30580 34510 9836 22710 30680 22020 42030 24660 35970 53920 96310 105800 29190 39050 87460 27760 44150 73320 25300 24510 34060 27680 44830 28530 24030 48900

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.