COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-02-02 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-02-02

Slideshow of forecasts 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how we lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-02-02

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-052022-01-022022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-032022-01-24 --2022-01-052022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302021-12-272022-01-242021-12-282021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-042022-01-042022-01-242021-12-312022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-042022-01-242021-12-312022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-042022-01-242022-01-242021-12-312022-01-022021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-312022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282021-12-302021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-052022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-042022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-032022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-312022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-052022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Peak daily increment 568 558 560 1020 1148 283 746 170 1761 1422 1451 1092 1963 510 3173 3883 3736 796 2273 1562 1125 1578 1919 3193 15941 1452 3204 2249 319 848 4493 629 4833 1345 8088 1421 938 3689 794 508 3253 6311 1002 3705 1077 1063 1140 1850 2586 611 2553 1034 2000 1117 1382 1131 1257 528 1179 456 3001 192 2379 1853 1020 1302 3498 4404 1186 939 944 1213 1381 153 1990 33 403 677 945 3847 513 7221 3824 461 1412 4834 1472 1337 1535 846 267 3177 463 896 4343 2298 1069 4132 399 381 4262 386 644 1003 366 773 1407 1028 261 766 319 3230 1432 1416 937 1256 370 1311 3246 1432 936 1000 873 471 936 946 563 1000 482 844 746 802 2570 1403 2007 1297 750 1449 1076 2798 1308 323 2869 1897 796 1785 995 3103 1078 1415 2598 841 1762 870 1246 3872 1664 1065 998 561 3871 1248 1097 3599 1401 1629 290 976 234 1044 2412 859 1099 1102 3241 2022 5096 3134 3786 1705 9392 6010 748 3515 1165 1048 538 8565 3200 1931 461 534 9492 1258 3520 449 724 246 2339 506 621 1189 1008 513 2692 240 3145 792 189 308 532 1185 1235 4238 1473 5015 518 951 399 628 850 1816 1140 1020 1294 1690 540 1794 2697 754 1116 2648 3621 1229 5147 1636 833 3689 36 1518 291 1747 379 3013 2496 2446 315 2301 2035 4197 2205 1020 1550 681 1026 626 2118 439 3895 879 1143 739 4004 1147 825 1221 1180 258 353 4631 5178 839 278 1097 3983 779 1170 7509 26 3070 2129 2419 1236 313 688 1563 1026 2697 596 857 1417 673 1184 938 842 1049 1485 903 1238 2254 3054 2242 3887 1122 1626 2697 1737 1058 906 262 3326 3394 3792 933 795 4157 827 2581 1677 890 1935 3308 798 804 1041 2267 1299 1008 709 1570 1022 2645 1160 1310 341 398 4954 3186 1011 836 422 1019 4278 4468 3485 4062 2512 1617 1323 1081 1122 688 1247 1103 279 310 1430 898 528 696 1375 1321 5454 4012 923 1484 4474 1211 1675 3461 1199 856 397 1037 2162 1283 934 2037
Days since peak 28 31 9 9 9 30 9 28 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 36 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 36 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 36 9 9 9 9 9 36 9 35 9 35 9 35 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 34 37 9 36 36 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 35 9 9 35 9 9 9 9 29 29 9 33 9 9 37 9 9 9 29 9 33 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 29 9 9 33 31 36 9 9 9 9 9 36 9 9 9 9 9 9 36 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 34 9 9 9 9 9 9 35 9 36 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 37 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 33 9 9 36 34 35 9 9 9 9 9 37 9 28 9 9 9 9 9 37 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 35 9 36 9 29 9 9 9 34 9 9 9 9 9 9 36 37 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 35 9 9 9 9 9 30 9 9 9 9 33 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 35 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 37 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 35 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 35 9 9 9 9 9 36 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 28 9 9 34 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 36 9 9 9 9 9
Last total 41286 40887 14346 25484 32501 20261 41407 39220 13233 66237 36525 35527 33286 52280 19036 62065 105252 77528 20543 54962 44045 32899 46236 51747 100089 69340 305759 30321 51286 41796 18746 22016 84653 16937 103549 33249 152937 39141 28543 88351 22084 37624 74262 131663 29585 88808 27449 27517 30451 29730 58137 46890 58240 31371 57679 29017 35765 91918 29031 42312 25674 36673 77398 10818 51354 49817 26657 40040 102350 96803 27580 25981 24546 35181 108569 12201 50387 2519 23452 18993 22846 111227 16850 154035 95453 13481 32609 104417 40991 31985 33944 22298 21924 71449 15166 51046 92558 75322 26418 93982 25897 34083 101034 29243 19424 29271 26601 26879 39485 29281 20979 22929 24247 84871 33783 49142 25078 34821 11288 38617 83958 37251 22654 30501 30726 36390 26157 23780 33791 76424 34986 25659 17692 21576 59237 33821 157086 33145 20373 31175 24446 75860 35455 23724 75849 41635 20992 52508 25173 70333 27366 41401 68194 24427 29991 22254 29910 77402 39350 30445 23914 33046 85363 30690 32059 81244 42989 26258 17794 34060 13142 28780 60038 36452 28591 32278 75664 47821 119815 51755 93720 37479 234179 108041 22480 79757 28491 27171 40350 150769 65775 45254 15401 14234 171487 31572 77492 13199 24483 17852 58880 16693 20032 37893 47430 36352 46526 20275 79760 21136 17468 14453 39283 35711 32030 90418 34246 94831 39983 55714 29531 20476 26174 44282 32371 27564 92687 43290 16821 49787 64261 18019 28330 65418 86474 33756 95328 39038 17341 71757 1886 40946 22787 27995 26634 61569 65982 56268 23334 44551 46138 88421 41567 23857 41919 46312 64893 18462 52608 12249 69439 23257 21594 18959 80192 31617 22769 33376 27687 9101 10865 84768 98974 24823 17895 28133 82406 24173 30675 158286 1630 73849 44931 61074 30852 22560 19095 37641 29363 73977 17179 21615 35064 21888 81794 29434 23399 33863 33300 33618 30660 47178 65270 50054 85016 29175 41018 57322 36727 24968 23990 19189 87656 62474 74015 30508 24892 84422 24393 59664 39097 62855 57362 70993 22972 23271 27592 51515 34749 31104 20901 34161 26167 53910 33963 32007 24213 13538 90330 72495 28736 22913 32667 31683 101821 81286 76654 95346 64558 37435 29413 30689 34487 21286 31901 35797 10165 22828 32480 22806 42328 25360 36989 55483 102805 109589 29819 40321 92870 28708 45460 77575 26229 25345 34177 28573 46803 30013 24933 51238
Last daily increment 205 174 100 84 123 82 376 402 34 627 301 121 198 307 143 178 468 186 54 224 363 136 285 265 800 201 978 119 97 133 32 85 217 102 541 225 515 186 200 306 85 44 518 854 181 425 121 84 129 66 154 66 207 293 341 102 229 236 126 124 63 208 454 23 196 208 255 270 434 439 111 208 163 101 484 34 270 9 6 55 117 748 122 561 404 43 172 403 233 134 109 148 17 313 67 192 294 534 167 356 89 167 499 86 106 282 67 210 196 158 67 117 75 395 157 313 182 232 43 267 287 110 144 125 299 125 149 180 170 329 63 136 117 79 211 147 379 239 121 135 141 296 293 13 323 155 128 255 108 273 98 243 338 188 128 147 166 250 256 125 89 116 390 134 267 358 244 52 68 226 20 191 297 183 169 220 341 237 435 116 357 155 895 364 173 321 121 120 425 445 287 307 77 129 423 119 347 67 135 31 280 122 181 250 305 319 155 91 457 129 43 57 84 257 135 330 155 330 89 400 79 149 92 184 198 154 197 211 139 348 237 74 143 418 322 208 327 161 65 150 17 364 51 62 93 356 464 238 43 147 345 251 141 122 234 123 100 70 356 76 155 91 52 156 273 182 150 188 173 60 44 215 315 100 61 216 235 115 188 611 5 418 269 257 251 64 142 304 150 446 132 134 227 125 216 191 180 221 117 234 88 166 399 189 368 149 243 137 150 101 146 85 274 208 307 229 180 318 150 293 190 138 361 177 75 129 216 278 203 172 173 212 144 172 183 237 48 78 354 198 176 127 79 201 316 251 339 486 206 256 160 233 275 112 162 262 76 58 110 139 152 184 255 225 274 754 170 260 387 197 353 282 176 220 20 217 277 96 102 315
Last week 1279 985 611 558 755 426 2123 2348 215 3640 1654 798 1269 2054 838 1152 3155 1334 347 1257 2236 986 1577 1721 4766 1463 6363 732 719 887 259 540 1511 579 3412 1400 3353 1083 1165 1933 435 422 2953 4588 1171 2534 801 511 807 447 1000 677 1219 1808 1804 656 1486 1616 722 960 543 1108 2908 156 1188 1393 1379 1605 2983 2681 732 1263 950 705 2584 196 1626 37 318 345 703 4586 676 3991 2449 302 1158 2468 1512 906 725 934 261 2030 451 1117 2012 3056 1051 2556 533 791 2943 421 1008 1624 391 1326 1129 945 325 780 352 2382 984 2145 1019 1345 257 1541 1926 736 892 780 1782 607 957 1179 1055 1715 528 923 919 470 1263 877 1905 1600 661 921 994 1698 1635 316 1657 928 741 1381 645 1680 690 1700 2051 1224 653 896 1112 1513 1867 933 576 685 2560 804 1634 2349 1460 375 300 1234 197 1126 1549 995 1119 1589 2092 1682 2861 735 1959 946 5487 2335 1019 1824 727 794 2478 2592 1860 1773 474 821 2609 808 2278 431 857 216 1753 707 1078 1547 1777 2006 976 513 2924 925 279 321 472 1503 862 1957 1012 1764 731 2452 401 955 648 1168 1275 971 1150 1330 888 2131 1461 460 837 2766 2121 1305 1879 1062 416 990 75 2053 389 448 539 2564 2776 1552 391 949 2113 1871 779 769 1347 587 709 340 2099 412 1051 496 328 954 1709 1103 988 1104 1236 337 310 1339 2126 704 323 1329 1480 678 1116 3682 27 2629 1714 1759 1574 317 676 1896 953 2714 812 917 1370 577 1024 1299 990 1483 686 1467 718 978 2150 1106 1925 923 1522 936 1056 618 775 346 1910 1367 2087 1296 1127 1955 982 1699 1457 982 2267 1289 584 812 1383 1696 1126 1121 1169 1342 951 1043 1306 1461 368 502 1990 1272 1120 812 555 1398 2205 1872 1801 2717 1258 1537 1076 1580 1516 793 897 1633 420 289 745 770 697 1289 1831 1471 1772 4634 1187 1645 2285 1391 2355 1850 1071 1220 472 1167 1703 597 782 1866
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-06-292021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-07-162021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-20 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-06-062021-07-162021-10-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-142021-10-192021-10-102021-08-052021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-10-18 --2021-07-142021-10-18 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012021-07-15 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-242021-06-29 --2021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302021-06-05 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-07-142021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-06 --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-142021-07-122021-07-142021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-172021-07-14 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-10-142021-09-02 -- --2021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-14 --2021-07-152021-07-162021-07-15 --2021-07-112021-07-162021-07-152021-07-29 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-06-292021-08-182021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-122021-09-15 --2021-07-142021-07-112021-07-15 -- -- --2021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 -- --2021-08-302021-09-29 --2021-10-182021-07-122021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-08-032021-07-152021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-06-29 -- --2021-06-29 --2021-07-15 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192021-06-062021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-09-012021-08-17 -- --2021-07-162021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-17 -- --2021-10-042021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-06-282021-07-152021-07-142021-07-13 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-182021-07-152021-06-29 --2021-08-172021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-08-192021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-07-172021-07-142021-07-152021-10-182021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-142021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-162021-07-08
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 260 276 70 139 152 144 287 379 176 943 127 159 126 202 293 107 478 103 176 68 218 621 4 258 94 72 97 74 160 249 177 72 159 115 101 227 67 170 203 269 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 142 114 708 607 376 53 101 229 122 140 92 86 64 202 400 269 137 188 133 135 183 122 100 65 157 15 61 22 105 58 110 128 185 88 171 421 67 56 82 274 123 941 95 63 113 163 229 84 156 152 61 65 146 54 151 87 82 90 203 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 247 316 301 117 707 51 213 80 99 120 41 47 448 96 169 40 164 72 72 101 274 115 49 31 184 116 384 105 164 123 94 256 621 176 291 228 77 96 322 87 264 158 255 143 118 343 297 114 289 268 40 140 67 213 75 73 49 116 70 253 94 78 123 96 482 169 277 202 118 49 345 86 85 470 128 68 77 92 106 303 200 152 243 70 131 87 77 41 243 339 240 201 428 57 145 101 329 219 85 143 137 116 92 150 92 78 105 131 134 106 226 286 64 79 352 157 313 195 144 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 99 63 117 120 74 138
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 14 2 28 49 59 18 128 103 28 53 51 54 99 71 406 33 65 31 75 124 39 190 42 75 22 83 100 2 100 38 34 44 31 68 97 73 35 58 22 21 92 25 46 68 129 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 64 25 227 190 143 16 39 112 49 43 39 41 32 63 142 128 56 26 66 49 49 57 36 30 35 6 25 7 38 23 49 44 80 41 67 199 29 19 32 75 54 199 21 30 40 76 57 27 54 75 27 32 32 18 70 38 41 37 59 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 107 143 74 44 295 20 66 35 43 51 17 14 164 48 77 11 75 30 20 36 58 32 24 2 75 54 120 38 54 61 39 68 174 83 115 88 22 40 111 42 112 50 87 51 19 108 49 51 68 125 18 61 17 69 20 21 17 56 25 104 38 35 40 33 189 80 91 64 40 22 58 34 40 149 59 28 35 35 42 55 94 56 65 34 49 36 27 17 118 78 85 62 96 24 64 24 103 85 30 34 55 35 37 63 23 33 36 51 61 41 72 125 31 36 172 70 94 86 69 36 31 40 47 87 17 37 42 89 24 58 112 316 69 28 31 52 43 35 59

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-03 to 2022-02-09

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-02-02 41286 40887 14346 25484 32501 20261 41407 39220 13233 66237 36525 35527 33286 52280 19036 62065 105252 77528 20543 54962 44045 32899 46236 51747 100089 69340 305759 30321 51286 41796 18746 22016 84653 16937 103549 33249 152937 39141 28543 88351 22084 37624 74262 131663 29585 88808 27449 27517 30451 29730 58137 46890 58240 31371 57679 29017 35765 91918 29031 42312 25674 36673 77398 10818 51354 49817 26657 40040 102350 96803 27580 25981 24546 35181 108569 12201 50387 2519 23452 18993 22846 111227 16850 154035 95453 13481 32609 104417 40991 31985 33944 22298 21924 71449 15166 51046 92558 75322 26418 93982 25897 34083 101034 29243 19424 29271 26601 26879 39485 29281 20979 22929 24247 84871 33783 49142 25078 34821 11288 38617 83958 37251 22654 30501 30726 36390 26157 23780 33791 76424 34986 25659 17692 21576 59237 33821 157086 33145 20373 31175 24446 75860 35455 23724 75849 41635 20992 52508 25173 70333 27366 41401 68194 24427 29991 22254 29910 77402 39350 30445 23914 33046 85363 30690 32059 81244 42989 26258 17794 34060 13142 28780 60038 36452 28591 32278 75664 47821 119815 51755 93720 37479 234179 108041 22480 79757 28491 27171 40350 150769 65775 45254 15401 14234 171487 31572 77492 13199 24483 17852 58880 16693 20032 37893 47430 36352 46526 20275 79760 21136 17468 14453 39283 35711 32030 90418 34246 94831 39983 55714 29531 20476 26174 44282 32371 27564 92687 43290 16821 49787 64261 18019 28330 65418 86474 33756 95328 39038 17341 71757 1886 40946 22787 27995 26634 61569 65982 56268 23334 44551 46138 88421 41567 23857 41919 46312 64893 18462 52608 12249 69439 23257 21594 18959 80192 31617 22769 33376 27687 9101 10865 84768 98974 24823 17895 28133 82406 24173 30675 158286 1630 73849 44931 61074 30852 22560 19095 37641 29363 73977 17179 21615 35064 21888 81794 29434 23399 33863 33300 33618 30660 47178 65270 50054 85016 29175 41018 57322 36727 24968 23990 19189 87656 62474 74015 30508 24892 84422 24393 59664 39097 62855 57362 70993 22972 23271 27592 51515 34749 31104 20901 34161 26167 53910 33963 32007 24213 13538 90330 72495 28736 22913 32667 31683 101821 81286 76654 95346 64558 37435 29413 30689 34487 21286 31901 35797 10165 22828 32480 22806 42328 25360 36989 55483 102805 109589 29819 40321 92870 28708 45460 77575 26229 25345 34177 28573 46803 30013 24933 51238
2022-02-03 41490 41060 14450 25580 32630 20330 41780 39410 13310 66860 36790 35670 33490 52630 19180 62290 105800 77770 20610 55180 44420 33080 46500 52040 101100 69580 306900 30450 51440 41960 18800 22110 84920 17040 104100 33480 153900 39330 28740 88680 22160 37720 74740 132400 29790 89230 27590 27610 30600 29830 58310 47020 58460 31660 58070 29140 36010 92320 29160 42490 25770 36850 77870 10840 51560 50050 26890 40320 102900 97300 27690 26190 24720 35330 108900 12270 50670 2527 23550 19050 22970 112000 16960 154700 95890 13540 32810 104800 41230 32230 34060 22450 22020 71790 15240 51220 92920 75830 26590 94450 26010 34180 101500 29340 19580 29530 26680 27100 39670 29440 20990 23060 24340 85290 33960 49510 25260 35050 11330 38870 84280 37380 22800 30630 31020 36600 26320 23980 33960 76770 35070 25820 17830 21660 59470 33970 157800 33400 20490 31330 24610 76150 35710 23770 76120 41800 21120 52730 25290 70590 27490 41680 68550 24620 30120 22400 30090 77670 39670 30610 24010 33230 85780 30840 32320 81620 43250 26330 17840 34280 13150 28960 60310 36690 28780 32540 76020 48090 120400 51900 94050 37640 235200 108400 22650 80050 28620 27320 40580 151300 66090 45540 15480 14360 171900 31710 77870 13280 24620 17900 59160 16810 20200 38140 47730 36690 46700 20310 80280 21290 17540 14510 39380 35950 32170 90740 34410 95130 40140 56160 29640 20630 26290 44480 32570 27730 92820 43520 16970 50130 64490 18100 28470 65890 86980 33970 95680 39220 17420 71980 1896 41290 22860 28080 26810 62000 66450 56520 23400 44710 46490 88760 41720 23990 42150 46400 65030 18520 52970 12340 69650 23340 21660 19110 80500 31810 22940 33560 27890 9161 10910 84990 99400 24940 17930 28350 82690 24290 30860 159000 1633 74290 45210 61360 31100 22660 19210 37950 29520 74450 17310 21770 35300 21990 82020 29650 23570 34110 33430 33850 30790 47350 65640 50250 85320 29340 41280 57480 36920 25070 24130 19240 87970 62730 74590 30730 25080 84900 24560 59960 39340 63040 57730 71250 23080 23400 27830 51830 34940 31300 21090 34380 26330 54100 34170 32250 24280 13630 90690 72710 28920 23040 32760 31920 102200 81630 76940 95790 64770 37700 29600 30940 34740 21420 32100 36050 10230 22900 32610 22940 42450 25570 37290 55790 103100 110400 30030 40610 93270 28930 45860 77920 26420 25550 34360 28780 47100 30120 25120 51550
2022-02-04 41640 41230 14570 25680 32750 20420 42140 39600 13360 67480 37050 35820 33690 53010 19330 62570 106500 78060 20680 55390 44810 33280 46750 52350 102000 69870 308100 30590 51610 42130 18870 22210 85210 17150 104800 33720 154300 39520 28940 89020 22230 37880 75170 133200 30030 89690 27740 27730 30750 29940 58500 47200 58710 31970 58320 29260 36260 92630 29290 42690 25890 36990 78350 10870 51780 50310 27090 40610 103400 97800 27790 26390 24920 35410 109300 12320 50950 2549 23620 19110 23110 112600 17060 155500 96330 13610 33040 105200 41450 32340 34170 22610 22090 72130 15310 51350 93320 76280 26770 95000 26130 34290 102100 29440 19760 29750 26770 27360 39840 29590 21020 23200 24420 85710 34150 49930 25440 35280 11380 39120 84610 37510 22970 30760 31340 36750 26510 24190 34090 77080 35130 25980 17980 21740 59730 34110 158300 33660 20580 31500 24790 76480 35950 23830 76370 41950 21270 52940 25410 70870 27620 41930 68920 24810 30250 22530 30280 77960 40020 30810 24100 33380 86190 30990 32550 82010 43510 26420 17900 34510 13170 29100 60460 36820 29000 32850 76360 48370 121000 52050 94390 37780 236100 108800 22800 80350 28750 27490 40650 151800 66430 45820 15570 14470 172400 31860 78260 13380 24750 17960 59460 16930 20360 38390 48020 37040 46910 20380 80840 21450 17600 14580 39560 36170 32320 91060 34580 95450 40380 56630 29740 20790 26400 44670 32770 27910 92970 43770 17120 50440 64710 18160 28620 66380 87160 34180 96050 39420 17490 72230 1896 41630 22930 28160 26950 62480 66910 56780 23450 44880 46880 89170 41880 24130 42390 46510 65250 18570 53350 12390 69870 23420 21730 19270 80800 32020 23120 33730 28110 9221 10960 85200 99800 25070 17990 28570 83000 24430 31050 159800 1633 74750 45480 61660 31340 22740 19320 38270 29690 74920 17450 21920 35520 22080 82200 29910 23730 34360 33560 34050 30950 47550 66000 50450 85590 29530 41570 57640 37140 25170 24270 19300 88320 63010 74890 30940 25270 85070 24730 60260 39630 63280 58090 71530 23210 23530 28090 52160 35110 31530 21270 34580 26490 54300 34380 32490 24370 13730 91040 72940 29120 23180 32840 32210 102600 82050 77210 96230 64960 37970 29820 31220 34980 21570 32220 36280 10290 22980 32750 23090 42590 25810 37630 55980 103500 111100 30310 40940 93650 29160 46350 78320 26640 25760 34490 28970 47430 30220 25240 51860
2022-02-05 41810 41390 14690 25780 32880 20490 42500 39780 13400 68100 37310 35970 33880 53370 19470 62830 107100 78320 20750 55610 45190 33470 47000 52650 102900 70130 309300 30730 51770 42300 18940 22310 85490 17260 105400 33950 154600 39700 29130 89340 22300 38010 75620 134000 30260 90140 27880 27840 30900 30040 58680 47350 58950 32270 58540 29390 36500 92840 29420 42790 26000 37140 78820 10890 52000 50560 27310 40900 103900 98200 27900 26600 25110 35450 109600 12340 51230 2563 23670 19180 23240 113300 17170 156200 96770 13670 33250 105500 41670 32400 34280 22760 22130 72470 15380 51500 93710 76750 26940 95510 26180 34380 102600 29500 19930 29990 26810 27590 40020 29740 21020 23340 24460 86130 34330 50330 25610 35500 11430 39360 84940 37640 23140 30890 31630 36830 26680 24390 34240 77270 35200 26140 18120 21820 59970 34260 158600 33910 20680 31660 24970 76800 36190 23880 76640 42110 21400 53150 25530 71140 27760 42190 69280 25000 30380 22670 30470 78240 40350 31000 24190 33480 86600 31140 32800 82390 43770 26510 17940 34730 13190 29250 60580 36930 29210 33130 76710 48640 121500 52200 94740 37930 237100 109200 22960 80650 28890 27660 40800 152300 66760 46100 15660 14590 172900 32000 78650 13470 24870 18020 59740 17040 20520 38630 48310 37380 47100 20420 81380 21610 17630 14640 39700 36390 32460 91380 34740 95750 40580 57070 29790 20940 26510 44870 32970 28080 93050 44010 17270 50760 64930 18230 28760 66860 87290 34400 96420 39620 17570 72470 1896 41960 22970 28250 27030 62930 67370 57030 23510 45040 47240 89550 42040 24260 42630 46560 65420 18630 53720 12430 70080 23510 21800 19420 81100 32220 23290 33910 28320 9280 11010 85410 100200 25190 18030 28780 83300 24560 31240 160500 1633 75200 45760 61950 31570 22770 19430 38580 29850 75390 17580 22070 35750 22170 82280 30150 23890 34610 33690 34270 31090 47730 66360 50650 85890 29700 41850 57800 37350 25270 24400 19330 88650 63280 75120 31150 25450 85210 24900 60550 39910 63490 58440 71800 23330 23660 28340 52490 35290 31750 21450 34790 26660 54500 34590 32730 24440 13820 91390 73150 29310 23310 32920 32470 103000 82430 77480 96670 65150 38230 30020 31490 35220 21710 32330 36520 10350 23020 32890 23220 42670 26040 37960 56130 103800 111900 30550 41250 94040 29390 46800 78690 26840 25960 34560 29170 47740 30330 25330 52170
2022-02-06 41990 41550 14800 25880 33010 20560 42850 40130 13430 68700 37570 36120 34080 53730 19610 63070 107700 78590 20820 55830 45560 33660 47250 52940 103800 70400 310400 30870 51930 42460 18990 22410 85780 17370 105900 34180 155100 39890 29330 89660 22370 38120 76070 134700 30480 90580 28020 27940 31050 30140 58850 47490 59190 32560 58820 29510 36740 93040 29550 42930 26110 37300 79280 10920 52210 50800 27520 41170 104400 98700 28010 26800 25290 35530 110000 12380 51510 2575 23720 19240 23370 113900 17270 157000 97220 13730 33460 105900 41900 32530 34390 22910 22170 72810 15450 51650 94090 77220 27110 96000 26260 34450 103100 29550 20100 30220 26860 27820 40210 29890 21040 23470 24510 86550 34510 50710 25780 35720 11470 39610 85280 37770 23290 31020 31920 36930 26850 24590 34390 77510 35270 26290 18250 21890 60210 34410 159000 34170 20790 31820 25140 77110 36430 23920 76910 42270 21530 53370 25650 71410 27880 42450 69630 25180 30510 22810 30650 78520 40670 31170 24290 33570 87000 31290 33040 82770 44020 26590 17980 34940 13210 29410 60790 37100 29410 33400 77060 48910 122100 52360 95090 38090 238100 109500 23120 80940 29020 27810 40960 152900 67080 46380 15740 14700 173300 32140 79030 13550 25010 18070 60030 17160 20680 38870 48600 37710 47280 20490 81900 21760 17670 14690 39820 36620 32610 91710 34910 96050 40750 57510 29860 21090 26620 45070 33160 28240 93200 44250 17420 51080 65150 18310 28910 67330 87530 34610 96780 39810 17640 72700 1898 42290 23010 28330 27100 63380 67830 57280 23570 45190 47600 89920 42190 24390 42860 46610 65570 18690 54080 12490 70290 23590 21870 19570 81410 32420 23450 34080 28520 9339 11060 85620 100600 25310 18070 28990 83590 24680 31420 161200 1633 75640 46030 62250 31810 22820 19540 38880 30000 75850 17710 22220 35980 22260 82410 30380 24050 34850 33820 34480 31230 47910 66720 50850 86210 29880 42120 57960 37550 25370 24540 19370 88970 63540 75520 31360 25630 85450 25060 60850 40160 63690 58800 72070 23450 23790 28570 52810 35470 31960 21630 34990 26820 54700 34800 32970 24520 13920 91760 73360 29500 23440 33010 32720 103400 82810 77750 97120 65340 38490 30220 31750 35460 21850 32500 36760 10420 23060 33030 23360 42770 26250 38270 56370 104100 112600 30780 41540 94440 29610 47220 79060 27040 26160 34640 29370 48040 30430 25470 52480
2022-02-07 42170 41720 14900 25980 33140 20630 43210 40580 13490 69310 37830 36260 34280 54080 19750 63320 108400 78850 20890 56050 45930 33840 47500 53230 104700 70670 311500 31000 52090 42630 19050 22500 86060 17470 106500 34410 156000 40080 29520 89980 22450 38220 76530 135500 30690 91020 28170 28050 31200 30240 59020 47630 59420 32850 59150 29640 36980 93400 29670 43120 26210 37460 79740 10940 52430 51050 27730 41450 104900 99100 28120 27000 25470 35790 110400 12430 51790 2585 23810 19300 23500 114600 17380 157700 97660 13790 33670 106300 42130 32840 34500 23070 22240 73160 15510 51800 94470 77700 27280 96500 26380 34620 103600 29640 20260 30460 26940 28050 40390 30040 21060 23610 24590 86960 34700 51080 25960 35950 11520 39860 85610 37900 23440 31150 32200 37080 27020 24780 34540 77920 35340 26450 18390 21970 60450 34550 159300 34420 20890 31980 25300 77420 36670 23970 77190 42440 21670 53590 25770 71670 28010 42710 69990 25370 30630 22950 30830 78810 40990 31350 24380 33760 87400 31430 33290 83140 44280 26680 18040 35160 13240 29570 61210 37360 29600 33670 77410 49180 122700 52510 95440 38240 239000 109900 23280 81240 29150 27970 41330 153400 67390 46650 15830 14820 173800 32280 79420 13640 25140 18120 60310 17280 20840 39120 48890 38040 47470 20600 82430 21910 17740 14750 39930 36840 32760 92050 35070 96350 40930 57950 29960 21240 26730 45260 33360 28410 93340 44480 17570 51410 65360 18380 29050 67800 88240 34820 97140 40000 17720 72930 1903 42620 23090 28420 27230 63820 68280 57530 23630 45350 47950 90290 42350 24530 43080 46700 65720 18750 54450 12600 70510 23680 21940 19720 81720 32620 23620 34260 28730 9398 11110 85830 101000 25430 18140 29200 83880 24810 31610 162000 1633 76080 46300 62540 32050 22900 19650 39190 30160 76310 17840 22370 36210 22360 82550 30600 24210 35090 33950 34700 31370 48090 67070 51050 86530 30050 42380 58120 37750 25470 24670 19440 89280 63800 76000 31570 25810 86180 25220 61150 40420 63880 59160 72330 23570 23920 28810 53120 35650 32160 21810 35200 26980 54900 35010 33210 24590 14010 92120 73560 29690 23580 33100 32970 103800 83180 78030 97570 65540 38750 30420 32010 35700 21990 32660 37000 10480 23110 33160 23490 42910 26470 38580 56780 104400 113400 31010 41840 94840 29830 47650 79420 27230 26360 34770 29560 48340 30540 25650 52780
2022-02-08 42360 41880 15010 26080 33270 20690 43560 41030 13530 69920 38090 36410 34480 54430 19890 63560 108900 79110 20960 56280 46290 34020 47760 53520 105600 70930 312600 31140 52250 42790 19100 22600 86350 17570 107100 34640 156500 40270 29710 90290 22520 38320 76990 136300 30900 91460 28310 28150 31350 30340 59180 47750 59650 33140 59450 29760 37220 93720 29800 43320 26320 37620 80210 10960 52650 51290 27950 41730 105400 99600 28230 27200 25640 35910 110800 12460 52070 2594 23870 19360 23630 115300 17490 158400 98100 13850 33870 106700 42370 33000 34620 23220 22290 73500 15580 51960 94850 78190 27450 96980 26490 34780 104100 29700 20420 30700 27000 28270 40580 30200 21080 23740 24640 87380 34880 51460 26130 36170 11570 40110 85950 38030 23600 31290 32490 37190 27180 24970 34700 78210 35410 26600 18530 22060 60690 34700 159600 34670 21000 32140 25470 77740 36920 24020 77480 42600 21800 53810 25890 71940 28140 42980 70350 25560 30760 23090 31020 79090 41310 31520 24480 33900 87810 31580 33540 83520 44530 26760 18090 35380 13270 29740 61460 37540 29800 33940 77770 49450 123200 52660 95800 38400 240000 110300 23440 81530 29280 28120 41640 153900 67710 46940 15910 14940 174200 32420 79800 13720 25270 18160 60600 17390 21010 39370 49180 38370 47650 20670 82950 22060 17790 14800 40030 37080 32900 92390 35240 96650 41090 58390 30030 21400 26850 45460 33550 28570 93450 44710 17710 51740 65580 18460 29190 68260 88590 35040 97500 40190 17790 73150 1911 42950 23170 28500 27310 64260 68740 57780 23690 45500 48310 90660 42500 24660 43310 46760 65850 18810 54810 12670 70720 23770 22000 19860 82030 32810 23780 34440 28930 9457 11160 86040 101400 25550 18190 29410 84170 24930 31790 162700 1634 76520 46570 62840 32290 22950 19760 39490 30320 76770 17980 22520 36430 22460 82630 30830 24370 35340 34080 34930 31510 48260 67430 51250 86850 30220 42650 58280 37950 25570 24810 19500 89600 64060 76390 31780 25990 86450 25390 61450 40670 64060 59530 72590 23680 24050 29040 53440 35840 32360 21990 35410 27140 55100 35220 33450 24660 14100 92490 73770 29880 23710 33190 33220 104200 83550 78310 98030 65740 39010 30610 32260 35940 22130 32820 37250 10540 23160 33300 23630 43020 26680 38880 57040 104800 114100 31230 42130 95240 30050 48060 79790 27420 26560 34850 29760 48640 30650 25800 53090
2022-02-09 42550 42040 15120 26180 33400 20760 43920 41390 13560 70530 38350 36560 34690 54790 20030 63790 109500 79370 21030 56510 46660 34200 48010 53810 106500 71190 313700 31270 52400 42960 19150 22700 86640 17680 107700 34880 157100 40460 29910 90610 22600 38410 77460 137000 31110 91910 28450 28250 31500 30440 59350 47880 59880 33430 59760 29880 37470 93960 29930 43440 26420 37790 80670 10990 52860 51530 28170 42010 105900 100000 28350 27400 25810 36000 111200 12490 52350 2603 23890 19430 23760 116000 17590 159100 98550 13910 34070 107100 42600 33120 34730 23370 22320 73850 15650 52120 95230 78680 27620 97470 26580 34910 104600 29780 20580 30950 27060 28490 40760 30350 21140 23870 24710 87790 35060 51830 26310 36400 11610 40360 86290 38170 23750 31420 32770 37300 27350 25170 34850 78510 35490 26760 18670 22140 60930 34850 160000 34930 21120 32300 25640 78050 37170 24060 77760 42770 21930 54040 26010 72200 28260 43250 70710 25750 30880 23230 31200 79380 41630 31690 24570 34010 88210 31730 33790 83890 44790 26840 18140 35600 13300 29910 61670 37680 29990 34210 78130 49730 123800 52820 96160 38560 240900 110600 23610 81830 29420 28270 41960 154400 68020 47220 16000 15070 174700 32570 80190 13800 25410 18200 60880 17510 21170 39620 49470 38710 47830 20750 83470 22210 17840 14860 40120 37310 33050 92730 35410 96940 41250 58820 30110 21550 26960 45660 33750 28730 93620 44940 17860 52080 65800 18530 29340 68730 88830 35250 97870 40380 17870 73380 1919 43280 23230 28580 27410 64700 69200 58030 23750 45660 48660 91020 42650 24790 43540 46870 65980 18870 55170 12740 70940 23850 22070 20010 82350 33010 23950 34610 29140 9516 11210 86250 101800 25670 18240 29630 84460 25050 31980 163400 1636 76960 46850 63130 32540 23010 19870 39800 30480 77240 18110 22680 36660 22560 82810 31050 24530 35580 34210 35150 31650 48440 67790 51450 87180 30390 42910 58450 38150 25670 24950 19570 89910 64320 76770 32000 26170 86720 25550 61750 40930 64240 59890 72850 23790 24180 29280 53750 36020 32560 22170 35620 27300 55300 35430 33690 24730 14190 92860 73980 30060 23840 33280 33470 104500 83910 78600 98490 65930 39270 30800 32520 36180 22260 33000 37500 10610 23200 33430 23770 43160 26890 39190 57220 105100 114900 31440 42420 95640 30270 48480 80150 27620 26760 34910 29960 48940 30750 25930 53400

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-03 to 2022-02-09

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-02-02 41286 40887 14346 25484 32501 20261 41407 39220 13233 66237 36525 35527 33286 52280 19036 62065 105252 77528 20543 54962 44045 32899 46236 51747 100089 69340 305759 30321 51286 41796 18746 22016 84653 16937 103549 33249 152937 39141 28543 88351 22084 37624 74262 131663 29585 88808 27449 27517 30451 29730 58137 46890 58240 31371 57679 29017 35765 91918 29031 42312 25674 36673 77398 10818 51354 49817 26657 40040 102350 96803 27580 25981 24546 35181 108569 12201 50387 2519 23452 18993 22846 111227 16850 154035 95453 13481 32609 104417 40991 31985 33944 22298 21924 71449 15166 51046 92558 75322 26418 93982 25897 34083 101034 29243 19424 29271 26601 26879 39485 29281 20979 22929 24247 84871 33783 49142 25078 34821 11288 38617 83958 37251 22654 30501 30726 36390 26157 23780 33791 76424 34986 25659 17692 21576 59237 33821 157086 33145 20373 31175 24446 75860 35455 23724 75849 41635 20992 52508 25173 70333 27366 41401 68194 24427 29991 22254 29910 77402 39350 30445 23914 33046 85363 30690 32059 81244 42989 26258 17794 34060 13142 28780 60038 36452 28591 32278 75664 47821 119815 51755 93720 37479 234179 108041 22480 79757 28491 27171 40350 150769 65775 45254 15401 14234 171487 31572 77492 13199 24483 17852 58880 16693 20032 37893 47430 36352 46526 20275 79760 21136 17468 14453 39283 35711 32030 90418 34246 94831 39983 55714 29531 20476 26174 44282 32371 27564 92687 43290 16821 49787 64261 18019 28330 65418 86474 33756 95328 39038 17341 71757 1886 40946 22787 27995 26634 61569 65982 56268 23334 44551 46138 88421 41567 23857 41919 46312 64893 18462 52608 12249 69439 23257 21594 18959 80192 31617 22769 33376 27687 9101 10865 84768 98974 24823 17895 28133 82406 24173 30675 158286 1630 73849 44931 61074 30852 22560 19095 37641 29363 73977 17179 21615 35064 21888 81794 29434 23399 33863 33300 33618 30660 47178 65270 50054 85016 29175 41018 57322 36727 24968 23990 19189 87656 62474 74015 30508 24892 84422 24393 59664 39097 62855 57362 70993 22972 23271 27592 51515 34749 31104 20901 34161 26167 53910 33963 32007 24213 13538 90330 72495 28736 22913 32667 31683 101821 81286 76654 95346 64558 37435 29413 30689 34487 21286 31901 35797 10165 22828 32480 22806 42328 25360 36989 55483 102805 109589 29819 40321 92870 28708 45460 77575 26229 25345 34177 28573 46803 30013 24933 51238
2022-02-03 41480 41070 14420 25570 32680 20340 41760 39570 13280 66810 36770 35600 33390 52430 19110 62190 105400 77690 20600 55090 44250 32990 46430 51900 100900 69470 306000 30480 51390 41910 18790 22130 84800 17010 104000 33460 153200 39230 28690 88460 22130 37700 74600 132100 29700 89050 27550 27530 30530 29820 58330 47010 58380 31590 57830 29090 35920 92210 29150 42440 25710 36880 77690 10840 51470 49930 26950 40290 102700 97400 27640 26120 24670 35210 109000 12240 50580 2528 23510 19050 22910 111800 16950 154400 95730 13520 32840 104700 41180 32110 34000 22390 21980 71640 15220 51230 92670 75640 26520 94220 25990 34230 101300 29310 19520 29460 26650 27120 39600 29400 21040 22990 24310 85410 33910 49570 25320 34960 11330 38890 84370 37300 22830 30540 31050 36500 26310 23920 33950 76740 35060 25730 17780 21600 59340 33980 157400 33240 20450 31280 24550 76200 35720 23770 75930 41810 21080 52630 25240 70700 27540 41600 68700 24590 30100 22340 30030 77520 39520 30640 23970 33170 85650 30800 32230 81850 43190 26300 17830 34170 13170 28980 60230 36600 28800 32420 76230 48000 120500 51880 93870 37540 235300 108500 22600 80240 28560 27360 40770 151000 66180 45440 15440 14330 172100 31620 77760 13280 24610 17890 59240 16780 20150 38090 47760 36690 46660 20350 80090 21230 17510 14510 39390 35880 32120 90540 34470 95010 40140 56160 29620 20600 26240 44400 32530 27760 92870 43420 16970 50000 64410 18070 28400 65710 86730 33930 95900 39150 17380 71810 1896 41170 22860 28050 26730 61860 66290 56360 23400 44660 46580 88640 41720 23930 42090 46420 65030 18500 52900 12310 69560 23290 21650 19090 80350 31720 22860 33490 27800 9141 10900 84870 99700 24920 17950 28260 82790 24310 30810 158600 1634 74170 45130 61220 31080 22620 19180 37850 29430 74150 17280 21720 35310 22000 81950 29570 23500 34010 33480 33840 30750 47410 65530 50260 85250 29290 41170 57570 36850 25030 24060 19250 87860 62680 74250 30670 25080 84630 24470 59880 39260 63010 57620 71090 23030 23350 27780 51720 34860 31280 21100 34290 26270 53980 34110 32150 24280 13660 90440 72640 28850 23010 32770 31820 102100 81590 76820 95720 64590 37610 29530 30840 34690 21350 32010 36040 10230 22880 32650 22960 42440 25530 37200 55660 103000 110100 30060 40460 93040 28840 45890 77690 26360 25450 34260 28840 47020 30160 25000 51610
2022-02-04 41650 41210 14500 25680 32780 20400 42070 39870 13310 67310 37000 35720 33550 52710 19220 62400 105700 77940 20700 55290 44490 33110 46600 52120 101600 69650 307100 30580 51550 42040 18850 22220 85070 17090 104400 33640 153700 39370 28850 88630 22190 37790 74950 132700 29850 89330 27660 27590 30640 29920 58600 47140 58650 31800 58040 29220 36060 92460 29300 42600 25780 37070 77980 10860 51610 50100 27140 40480 103200 97800 27720 26250 24790 35310 109300 12270 50800 2539 23560 19120 22990 112300 17040 155000 96080 13560 33010 105100 41390 32280 34100 22480 22020 71910 15280 51410 93020 76020 26660 94590 26070 34320 101700 29370 19640 29580 26710 27260 39720 29520 21090 23060 24350 85740 34060 49880 25480 35090 11370 39070 84530 37420 22940 30610 31260 36590 26460 24060 34120 76980 35120 25830 17870 21680 59490 34070 157700 33440 20510 31390 24690 76550 35890 23810 76120 41920 21180 52770 25340 70900 27660 41780 69010 24730 30240 22440 30130 77780 39710 30760 24030 33260 85940 30910 32380 82180 43370 26370 17870 34350 13190 29130 60450 36710 28940 32620 76530 48170 121000 52030 94160 37650 236100 108900 22690 80490 28690 27470 41140 151700 66490 45670 15500 14390 172800 31760 78090 13340 24710 17940 59430 16850 20260 38310 48100 36990 46830 20410 80410 21340 17540 14560 39500 36050 32230 90890 34610 95230 40310 56660 29690 20720 26310 44540 32680 27900 93010 43630 17090 50240 64580 18120 28490 66020 86970 34090 96200 39310 17430 72040 1901 41370 22910 28130 26840 62170 66560 56630 23450 44800 46840 88990 41900 24030 42290 46510 65180 18530 53140 12350 69740 23340 21730 19190 80570 31840 22990 33580 27890 9181 10940 85060 100000 25050 17990 28410 83120 24410 30950 159200 1634 74520 45360 61530 31260 22690 19270 38030 29530 74480 17390 21830 35460 22080 82090 29760 23590 34180 33620 34020 30850 47610 65770 50420 85480 29400 41320 57790 37000 25110 24150 19300 88150 62960 74480 30830 25230 84870 24570 60110 39470 63170 57900 71280 23100 23420 27940 51950 34990 31460 21250 34420 26370 54100 34240 32320 24350 13750 90750 72910 28980 23100 32860 32020 102600 81900 77050 96020 64790 37750 29680 31020 34860 21450 32090 36300 10280 22930 32790 23070 42540 25680 37410 55820 103300 110600 30250 40630 93300 29000 46270 77960 26490 25580 34350 28980 47250 30260 25080 51890
2022-02-05 41780 41320 14580 25790 32880 20450 42410 40200 13330 67820 37230 35840 33720 52930 19320 62630 106100 78150 20760 55450 44780 33240 46800 52320 102400 69850 307700 30700 51690 42180 18900 22300 85280 17160 104800 33820 154100 39520 28970 88800 22260 37870 75300 133200 30020 89650 27760 27650 30750 30010 58770 47260 58820 32000 58270 29350 36210 92660 29420 42710 25850 37260 78330 10880 51750 50280 27330 40690 103700 98100 27810 26400 24930 35380 109600 12290 51020 2547 23590 19190 23060 112800 17140 155400 96400 13600 33190 105400 41600 32400 34200 22580 22060 72200 15340 51600 93300 76360 26790 94850 26130 34400 102000 29410 19750 29730 26740 27430 39850 29630 21120 23140 24380 86050 34200 50190 25640 35240 11420 39240 84680 37550 23030 30670 31470 36640 26620 24200 34280 77150 35180 25950 17970 21750 59600 34180 157900 33620 20590 31490 24840 76860 36070 23840 76340 42050 21280 52930 25440 71130 27780 41960 69330 24870 30360 22540 30230 78040 39930 30890 24100 33350 86260 31030 32580 82540 43550 26410 17900 34510 13210 29270 60620 36790 29100 32810 76810 48350 121500 52180 94460 37760 236700 109300 22800 80740 28790 27580 41510 152200 66810 45840 15560 14460 173400 31870 78380 13400 24820 17990 59620 16940 20380 38510 48420 37300 47000 20450 80720 21450 17570 14600 39590 36240 32350 91110 34740 95380 40450 57140 29730 20850 26390 44650 32820 28050 93120 43800 17200 50470 64720 18170 28600 66300 87070 34250 96500 39460 17490 72230 1906 41580 22950 28200 26940 62460 66830 56850 23500 44940 47100 89300 42070 24110 42500 46560 65320 18570 53420 12400 69950 23400 21800 19290 80880 31940 23140 33680 28010 9224 10990 85220 100500 25170 18020 28560 83440 24520 31110 159800 1635 74820 45570 61830 31450 22720 19350 38230 29610 74860 17500 21940 35630 22150 82180 29930 23680 34330 33730 34210 30970 47730 66000 50580 85750 29520 41490 57990 37160 25170 24260 19330 88500 63230 74690 31020 25400 85040 24680 60370 39680 63310 58220 71460 23180 23520 28110 52140 35120 31620 21400 34540 26490 54220 34390 32490 24410 13840 90960 73080 29120 23210 32930 32230 102900 82210 77300 96380 64990 37910 29830 31180 35040 21540 32220 36560 10340 22950 32910 23180 42610 25830 37640 55970 103700 111200 30450 40840 93550 29170 46650 78160 26610 25700 34410 29120 47460 30350 25150 52160
2022-02-06 41930 41440 14670 25900 32990 20510 42750 40550 13360 68360 37370 35960 33860 53200 19420 62750 106700 78340 20810 55580 45060 33380 47000 52610 103100 70060 308700 30810 51830 42310 18940 22360 85530 17250 105300 33990 154400 39670 29110 89040 22310 37940 75660 133700 30180 90040 27870 27700 30860 30110 58900 47370 58990 32250 58410 29460 36390 92850 29510 42850 25910 37450 78710 10900 51890 50450 27530 40910 104000 98500 27890 26580 25060 35450 109900 12320 51250 2555 23630 19260 23190 113300 17230 156000 96770 13650 33360 105700 41750 32500 34300 22700 22090 72430 15400 51780 93660 76660 26930 95180 26200 34480 102300 29450 19880 29930 26780 27650 39990 29750 21160 23260 24410 86390 34360 50530 25780 35410 11460 39450 84990 37640 23170 30790 31630 36710 26770 24360 34450 77340 35240 26070 18030 21820 59720 34310 158200 33810 20670 31610 24940 77030 36270 23870 76470 42180 21370 53050 25530 71390 27860 42200 69660 25030 30470 22650 30370 78230 40150 31040 24160 33420 86620 31150 32800 82930 43770 26530 17930 34680 13230 29380 60760 36940 29250 33040 77180 48560 121800 52320 94660 37830 237500 109600 22940 80990 28880 27680 41910 152600 67010 46010 15600 14560 173700 31950 78690 13480 24940 18030 59950 17030 20520 38720 48740 37620 47170 20520 81160 21570 17600 14650 39680 36420 32440 91370 34900 95540 40590 57620 29780 20970 26470 44820 32990 28200 93300 43990 17330 50710 64910 18230 28720 66670 87320 34420 96800 39620 17540 72370 1913 41820 22990 28300 27010 62820 67170 57010 23540 45050 47460 89510 42240 24210 42690 46620 65460 18610 53740 12450 70150 23460 21830 19420 81160 32130 23280 33860 28160 9268 11030 85430 100700 25270 18060 28730 83660 24610 31250 160300 1636 75170 45730 62090 31660 22760 19410 38460 29740 75090 17600 22060 35810 22220 82300 30090 23790 34520 33840 34420 31080 47870 66220 50730 86030 29650 41680 58140 37300 25260 24390 19370 88730 63480 74980 31180 25510 85270 24780 60630 39850 63430 58540 71680 23250 23630 28290 52420 35280 31810 21570 34710 26610 54380 34560 32690 24470 13930 91150 73270 29250 23320 32990 32410 103200 82510 77430 96740 65120 38100 29990 31370 35220 21640 32300 36820 10400 22980 32990 23280 42700 25990 37910 56180 104000 111800 30610 41060 93850 29350 46910 78360 26770 25830 34480 29300 47720 30430 25270 52440
2022-02-07 42130 41640 14810 26010 33210 20570 43100 40930 13400 68920 37700 36200 34130 53770 19620 63130 107800 78750 20950 56050 45580 33700 47330 53230 103900 70520 311400 31020 52190 42550 18990 22530 86100 17400 106200 34320 155900 40030 29390 89730 22460 38030 76290 134900 30480 90760 28110 27850 31100 30330 59350 47500 59510 32660 58950 29720 36750 93170 29720 43020 26060 37640 79350 10920 52240 50830 27740 41280 105000 99300 28040 26840 25290 35830 110200 12350 51680 2563 23690 19330 23400 114200 17340 157300 97550 13760 33610 106500 42100 32840 34540 22900 22140 72980 15490 51970 94430 77310 27160 96060 26300 34610 103100 29530 20080 30230 26840 27970 40260 29990 21220 23520 24490 86990 34690 51080 26080 35710 11520 39820 85600 37960 23380 30980 32050 36830 26970 24640 34620 77700 35320 26320 18220 21970 60230 34520 158500 34190 20830 31840 25150 77750 36550 23920 77040 42450 21560 53470 25730 71910 28100 42590 70380 25220 30640 22850 30620 78800 40510 31370 24320 33560 87290 31330 33130 83620 44170 26700 17990 35050 13260 29600 61160 37290 29530 33380 77870 48970 122900 52610 95420 38070 239600 110400 23200 81550 29100 27960 42350 153700 67720 46330 15760 14700 174600 32240 79280 13620 25060 18070 60500 17170 20730 39070 49060 37950 47350 20610 81950 21770 17660 14690 39770 36700 32670 92130 35170 96070 40770 58100 29860 21110 26630 45160 33250 28450 93440 44370 17460 51100 65310 18360 28960 67470 88050 34780 97440 39960 17690 72940 1920 42230 23060 28520 27140 63490 67730 57390 23600 45300 48000 90170 42420 24410 43050 46710 65590 18730 54060 12580 70620 23620 21960 19610 81650 32450 23520 34120 28450 9371 11100 85980 101600 25490 18110 28990 84320 24810 31530 161600 1637 75780 46210 62720 31880 22820 19590 38840 29980 75590 17750 22300 36090 22410 82490 30460 23950 34810 34110 34690 31320 48120 66750 51070 86610 29940 41980 58550 37540 25410 24610 19420 89400 63880 75620 31480 25760 85860 25000 61070 40180 63620 59090 72340 23470 23800 28480 53010 35600 32100 21750 34980 26820 54770 34850 32990 24550 14030 91840 73750 29470 23520 33090 32730 103900 83110 77930 97380 65690 38420 30280 31740 35580 21870 32550 37080 10460 23020 33230 23490 42840 26330 38340 56670 104600 112600 30930 41490 94560 29680 47430 79120 27020 26050 34590 29600 48180 30600 25520 52920
2022-02-08 42330 41810 14920 26130 33380 20620 43450 41310 13440 69510 38020 36360 34480 54080 19820 63520 108400 79090 21060 56330 45960 33900 47600 53600 104700 70820 312900 31190 52410 42710 19040 22710 86430 17520 106900 34580 156600 40260 29610 90290 22550 38130 77080 135900 30780 91310 28270 28060 31270 30460 59560 47630 59760 33010 59380 29890 37010 93510 29890 43220 26190 37840 79840 10950 52490 51110 27950 41660 105500 99800 28160 27060 25460 36050 110700 12390 51920 2570 23740 19410 23520 115000 17440 158100 98020 13820 33830 107000 42330 33030 34690 23040 22210 73420 15570 52170 94970 77980 27460 96680 26390 34730 103600 29610 20250 30530 26930 28230 40490 30180 21280 23670 24560 87470 34930 51500 26280 35920 11580 40120 86040 38150 23560 31110 32400 36980 27150 24850 34790 77960 35390 26490 18360 22110 60600 34710 158900 34430 20960 32020 25310 78150 36820 23970 77520 42750 21690 53840 25880 72280 28250 42840 70800 25400 30800 23000 30810 79190 40850 31570 24430 33680 87770 31500 33380 84050 44440 26810 18040 35300 13290 29820 61500 37510 29750 33620 78340 49260 123500 52850 96000 38390 240900 111000 23360 81940 29240 28200 42780 154500 68140 46790 15870 14830 175300 32430 79720 13720 25200 18110 60840 17300 20900 39320 49400 38280 47550 20670 82480 21910 17710 14740 39860 36950 32850 92540 35370 96510 40930 58590 29920 21260 26760 45360 33430 28630 93560 44600 17640 51410 65600 18450 29130 68020 88550 35030 97860 40150 17790 73230 1928 42570 23140 28650 27240 64010 68210 57980 23670 45500 48440 90600 42620 24550 43280 46760 65720 18820 54420 12670 70900 23740 22040 19780 81960 32680 23670 34300 28680 9443 11150 86350 102300 25640 18160 29170 84680 24970 31730 162400 1639 76260 46550 63040 32130 22880 19730 39140 30160 76220 17890 22440 36330 22550 82650 30720 24110 35140 34280 34930 31500 48520 67170 51430 86930 30140 42310 58820 37770 25530 24740 19480 89770 64230 76130 31720 25940 86240 25270 61390 40470 63840 59500 72690 23620 23940 28690 53410 35850 32270 21920 35210 26980 55030 35050 33240 24620 14130 92430 74020 29720 23670 33190 33050 104400 83570 78380 97880 66050 38670 30500 32030 35810 22080 32750 37360 10530 23060 33420 23640 42980 26570 38630 56930 105000 113400 31190 41840 95100 29920 47750 79620 27230 26280 34680 29820 48440 30800 25720 53200
2022-02-09 42540 41980 15030 26250 33520 20690 43810 41690 13490 70090 38260 36570 34700 54660 19990 63930 109300 79620 21150 56590 46320 34080 47860 53910 105500 71150 314400 31320 52630 42920 19080 22800 86840 17620 107400 34850 158000 40470 29820 90680 22670 38250 77490 136700 30980 91750 28420 28170 31430 30650 59930 47760 60110 33280 59750 30030 37240 93860 30060 43390 26300 38030 80340 10970 52740 51340 28150 41930 106400 100400 28270 27220 25640 36210 111000 12430 52230 2577 23800 19490 23690 115700 17550 159600 98880 13910 34020 107600 42640 33380 34860 23180 22260 73830 15660 52370 95330 78640 27640 97270 26480 34830 104400 29690 20410 30760 26990 28440 40780 30330 21330 23810 24640 87990 35090 51780 26460 36140 11630 40320 86270 38380 23680 31230 32680 37110 27330 25040 34970 78240 35460 26750 18520 22210 60930 34850 159300 34800 21080 32170 25570 78500 37030 24010 77940 42990 21850 54160 26030 72510 28420 43090 71160 25570 30940 23140 31010 79610 41160 31820 24530 33820 88170 31650 33640 84380 44730 26930 18090 35590 13320 29970 61820 37730 29920 33960 78740 49510 124400 53070 96640 38590 242800 111400 23520 82170 29460 28370 43190 155100 68660 47060 15980 14950 176300 32620 80010 13790 25330 18150 61070 17410 21080 39590 49720 38620 47730 20730 82980 22050 17770 14790 39950 37190 33060 93140 35560 96840 41130 59070 29990 21410 26880 45590 33660 28790 93720 44910 17790 51880 65930 18560 29290 68460 89070 35290 98240 40490 17870 73620 1937 42910 23210 28780 27350 64450 68620 58360 23730 45680 48710 91150 42800 24680 43510 46870 65850 18900 54770 12760 71210 23830 22160 19910 82480 32860 23810 34470 28880 9512 11220 86650 102700 25770 18210 29460 85080 25110 31910 163800 1641 76780 46850 63510 32360 22940 19840 39450 30330 76990 18010 22670 36530 22680 82850 30990 24250 35390 34420 35170 31660 48910 67570 51670 87310 30320 42550 59000 37970 25660 24840 19540 90250 64530 76530 31960 26190 86570 25450 61770 40740 64070 59890 73140 23740 24080 28900 53770 36020 32540 22150 35420 27140 55220 35280 33480 24710 14220 92780 74320 29890 23780 33310 33410 105100 84010 78860 98340 66470 38920 30670 32250 36050 22240 32920 37640 10590 23100 33610 23770 43130 26790 38940 57290 105500 114100 31390 42100 95640 30110 48290 80010 27400 26560 34790 30000 48700 30930 25880 53680

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.