COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-02-06 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-02-06

Slideshow of forecasts 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how we lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-02-06

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-052021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-042022-01-242022-02-032022-01-052022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302021-12-272022-01-242021-12-282021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-042021-12-282022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-042022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-042021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282021-12-302021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-052022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-042022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-042022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-052022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Peak daily increment 556 546 549 1085 1181 273 742 479 165 1550 1475 1646 1157 2136 569 3423 4227 3745 889 2610 1517 1330 1595 2073 1108 3279 16906 1482 3300 2144 319 860 4544 639 4841 1415 8366 1566 907 3972 913 508 3182 6902 1081 3861 1171 1123 1292 1984 2710 611 2788 1137 2137 1284 1430 1131 1297 528 1217 456 2844 192 2435 2095 1053 1289 3506 4623 1168 1013 967 1430 1381 153 1929 33 403 678 941 4133 519 7056 3906 509 1402 4991 1528 1416 1650 842 267 3310 474 896 4578 2263 1101 4400 400 374 4588 385 700 1104 366 814 1483 1076 256 884 315 2865 1487 1506 899 1255 385 1312 3415 1621 947 1123 987 469 942 900 560 994 482 997 793 873 2766 1495 2007 1413 825 1536 1044 3208 1312 323 3262 1971 740 2047 1107 3127 1072 1453 2902 907 1789 888 1195 4141 1712 1179 1005 561 3727 1247 1166 3578 1432 1613 290 1154 234 1030 2628 891 1139 1127 3316 1920 5521 3294 4449 1649 9733 6090 827 3512 1098 1101 661 9400 3815 1907 537 553 10468 1411 3628 492 682 246 2482 518 672 1241 960 578 2673 240 3350 820 189 308 532 1263 1313 4799 1431 5218 518 1001 392 608 894 1740 1111 994 1294 1708 519 1840 2702 818 1106 2973 3438 1362 5070 1680 819 4178 36 1484 291 1670 375 3040 2592 2554 315 2381 2018 4381 2260 1036 1604 681 1026 683 2195 457 3849 996 1175 778 4275 1234 909 1253 1224 303 332 4704 5679 904 278 1066 4256 760 1216 8336 24 3148 2337 2711 1202 308 762 1639 1088 2736 610 809 1365 677 1184 974 904 1026 1389 964 1287 2233 2979 2354 4055 1245 1608 2929 1773 1046 914 262 3687 3462 3786 943 891 4126 909 2607 1685 890 2185 3563 906 848 1015 2453 1321 995 788 1593 1025 2785 1173 1310 341 364 5245 3261 1037 876 422 1045 4718 4259 3790 4326 2754 1586 1376 1187 1141 788 1362 1081 265 302 1626 923 528 786 1317 1500 5838 3737 992 1520 4826 1297 1730 3989 1202 801 397 1056 2162 1331 1030 1978
Days since peak 32 40 13 13 13 33 13 3 32 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 38 13 13 13 13 13 40 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 40 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 40 13 13 13 13 13 40 13 39 13 39 13 39 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 38 41 13 40 40 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 39 13 13 39 13 13 13 13 33 40 13 39 13 13 41 13 13 13 40 13 40 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 33 13 13 39 33 40 13 13 13 13 13 40 13 13 13 13 13 13 40 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 38 13 13 13 13 13 13 39 13 40 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 41 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 39 13 13 40 38 39 13 13 13 13 13 41 13 32 13 13 13 13 13 41 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 39 13 40 13 33 13 13 13 38 13 13 13 13 13 13 40 41 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 39 13 13 13 13 13 33 13 13 13 13 38 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 39 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 41 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 39 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 39 13 13 13 13 13 40 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 32 13 13 38 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 40 13 13 13 13 13
Last total 41999 41522 14670 25776 32925 20517 42408 40476 13379 67940 37298 35932 33820 53240 19410 62621 106688 78127 20699 55538 44965 33333 47118 52483 102621 70080 308629 30643 51567 42144 18879 22285 85312 17188 105260 33856 154335 39668 29205 89321 22251 37831 75776 133833 30171 90021 27819 27754 30833 29908 58545 47210 58758 32316 58550 29333 36425 92727 29430 42845 25925 37328 78610 10911 51898 50518 27327 40768 103712 98123 27904 26613 24990 35488 110107 12307 51260 2561 23700 19154 23133 113583 17234 155775 96602 13609 33215 105627 41738 32370 34326 22714 22107 72434 15390 51660 93428 76876 26917 95034 26143 34588 102399 29456 19964 30120 26764 27547 40007 29727 21207 23342 24402 85995 34253 50206 25634 35448 11413 39429 84815 37573 23012 30895 31505 36723 26620 24343 34343 77315 35286 26114 18066 21762 59767 34226 158288 33907 20704 31620 24929 76765 36253 23952 76700 41998 21349 53165 25468 71212 27652 42146 69251 25007 30254 22711 30438 78069 40246 30853 24227 33430 86613 31061 32981 82350 43701 26435 17917 34666 13268 29401 60789 36981 29039 33079 76672 48572 121044 52073 94769 37927 236699 108873 22989 80680 28904 27519 41648 152090 66647 46179 15589 14613 172706 31918 78546 13387 24972 17959 59787 17077 20568 38651 48315 37232 46948 20529 80951 21510 17605 14583 39549 36399 32412 91332 34709 95704 40313 56871 29702 20905 26524 44795 33087 27962 93294 43870 17225 50850 64930 18232 28654 66836 87534 34486 96259 39493 17507 72222 1909 41932 22997 28171 26918 62632 67384 57083 23556 44983 47050 89289 41885 24249 42639 46665 65230 18578 53685 12462 69875 23504 21751 19406 80920 32122 23246 33813 28257 9252 11032 85375 99878 25146 18086 28753 83169 24481 31260 159964 1661 74978 45611 61838 31712 22713 19412 38618 29758 75327 17533 22013 35692 22137 82389 30158 23881 34584 33611 34514 30987 47642 66341 50549 86118 29679 41813 57759 37167 25241 24342 19382 88502 63034 74878 31181 25479 85289 24914 60538 39732 63353 58446 71536 23241 23665 28288 52266 35304 31651 21505 34799 26622 54402 34630 32648 24420 13757 91432 73095 29275 23274 32929 32297 102696 82146 77497 96681 65179 38140 29869 31507 35279 21615 32399 36649 10409 23002 32793 23134 42769 25849 37925 56208 103505 111848 30362 41072 93842 29342 46372 78411 26682 25943 34497 29169 47661 30351 25277 52074
Last daily increment 111 89 63 90 113 45 252 334 23 433 181 119 117 219 89 109 303 123 38 142 208 112 223 155 651 181 608 75 54 96 29 58 139 64 408 128 273 103 165 195 39 33 311 506 145 289 92 56 102 43 95 43 107 187 173 87 165 134 83 73 60 161 309 19 124 179 165 174 304 333 101 156 111 89 315 26 198 7 32 39 59 596 85 396 253 33 161 282 184 74 84 104 19 243 50 146 199 386 131 244 39 94 281 43 144 197 44 143 133 90 41 108 34 267 121 226 137 157 28 189 189 69 82 94 171 72 117 126 177 160 65 107 85 42 122 95 251 177 85 118 80 216 194 29 178 95 84 139 63 194 68 163 221 135 61 110 106 161 217 94 73 65 286 103 218 250 165 33 24 142 13 142 148 102 123 184 214 185 280 83 263 104 565 169 122 187 93 61 304 293 193 199 41 86 277 78 246 35 130 26 212 95 128 179 184 243 92 65 279 89 20 19 40 163 89 211 127 182 41 268 27 95 79 125 156 93 135 142 90 253 134 47 66 333 275 168 208 117 41 103 5 213 26 38 52 214 332 188 38 87 167 189 73 119 176 88 48 29 269 59 108 66 35 108 163 113 140 102 123 44 49 137 180 69 35 163 175 80 137 367 6 269 155 162 245 31 58 229 94 310 92 95 150 55 143 184 123 175 66 204 81 110 257 103 227 127 172 95 111 73 95 47 204 125 191 183 147 185 103 192 149 56 256 132 63 85 169 160 161 148 170 155 121 129 149 148 47 43 251 147 142 77 48 148 199 222 208 337 135 141 116 196 206 64 128 210 59 50 69 91 88 130 228 156 160 564 132 179 214 143 198 167 113 136 32 136 203 67 81 217
Last week 1188 1014 538 466 688 432 1750 2078 227 3040 1359 668 943 1605 656 918 2428 995 265 1013 1638 741 1436 1300 4206 1174 4914 568 522 630 219 439 1139 459 2830 1081 2440 887 1063 1628 316 319 2587 3789 962 2060 639 402 664 338 740 533 916 1563 1515 535 1173 1376 642 861 425 1084 2136 153 930 1148 1176 1267 2307 2234 565 1060 771 520 2589 173 1433 57 328 266 502 3936 624 3020 2008 233 971 2050 1261 680 617 730 256 1639 377 988 1488 2639 835 1864 438 861 2318 374 826 1416 303 1099 894 761 364 659 291 1954 798 1709 913 1099 206 1341 1492 573 654 639 1396 577 771 954 921 1561 461 765 676 348 980 688 1917 1294 575 739 788 1459 1373 325 1503 682 594 1186 500 1436 484 1308 1763 1009 508 778 887 1140 1492 698 507 631 2113 636 1481 1858 1210 289 246 1030 193 1038 1345 890 785 1277 1765 1318 2142 566 1789 780 4306 1599 876 1545 658 602 2182 2211 1460 1539 355 660 2071 589 1792 316 785 173 1485 632 913 1281 1517 1565 745 427 2121 652 238 251 446 1190 648 1605 782 1497 536 1970 323 733 554 879 1139 689 1010 1012 710 1795 1179 378 603 2353 1811 1195 1591 807 304 779 54 1740 360 317 464 1833 2355 1352 360 734 1605 1432 605 641 1178 573 562 234 1806 371 782 412 269 756 1305 872 821 810 970 265 267 1062 1556 555 316 1043 1238 517 968 2896 45 1963 1243 1315 1406 272 574 1610 721 2290 630 693 1076 469 985 1137 823 1203 547 1406 539 807 1877 875 1862 823 1305 727 763 477 622 351 1418 1044 1537 1149 991 1490 821 1489 1057 818 1863 938 460 661 1147 1299 955 891 1017 1089 785 840 1102 1127 315 397 1833 1027 909 611 440 1034 1584 1427 1492 2285 1042 1236 783 1328 1292 566 810 1396 379 288 538 579 716 886 1494 1229 1258 3829 913 1307 1751 1055 1651 1421 800 1011 442 1007 1408 542 585 1456
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-06-292021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-07-162021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-20 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-06-062021-07-162021-10-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-142021-10-192021-10-102021-08-052021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-10-18 --2021-07-142021-10-18 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012021-07-15 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-242021-06-29 --2021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302021-06-05 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-07-142021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-06 --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-142021-07-122021-07-142021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-172021-07-14 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-10-142021-09-02 -- --2021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-14 --2021-07-152021-07-162021-07-15 --2021-07-112021-07-162021-07-152021-07-29 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-06-292021-08-182021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-122021-09-15 --2021-07-142021-07-112021-07-15 -- -- --2021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 -- --2021-08-302021-09-29 --2021-10-182021-07-122021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-08-032021-07-152021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-06-29 -- --2021-06-29 --2021-07-15 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192021-06-062021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-09-012021-08-17 -- --2021-07-162021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-17 -- --2021-10-042021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-06-282021-07-152021-07-142021-07-13 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-182021-07-152021-06-29 --2021-08-172021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-08-192021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-07-172021-07-142021-07-152021-10-182021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-142021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-162021-07-08
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 260 276 70 139 152 144 287 379 176 943 127 159 126 202 293 107 478 103 176 68 218 621 4 258 94 72 97 74 160 249 177 72 159 115 101 227 67 170 203 269 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 142 114 708 607 376 53 101 229 122 140 92 86 64 202 400 269 137 188 133 135 183 122 100 65 157 15 61 22 105 58 110 128 185 88 171 421 67 56 82 274 123 941 95 63 113 163 229 84 156 152 61 65 146 54 151 87 82 90 203 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 247 316 301 117 707 51 213 80 99 120 41 47 448 96 169 40 164 72 72 101 274 115 49 31 184 116 384 105 164 123 94 256 621 176 291 228 77 96 322 87 264 158 255 143 118 343 297 114 289 268 40 140 67 213 75 73 49 116 70 253 94 78 123 96 482 169 277 202 118 49 345 86 85 470 128 68 77 92 106 303 200 152 243 70 131 87 77 41 243 339 240 201 428 57 145 101 329 219 85 143 137 116 92 150 92 78 105 131 134 106 226 286 64 79 352 157 313 195 144 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 99 63 117 120 74 138
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 14 2 28 49 59 18 128 103 28 53 51 54 99 179 71 406 33 65 31 75 124 39 190 42 75 22 83 100 2 100 38 34 44 31 68 97 73 35 58 22 21 92 25 46 68 129 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 64 25 227 190 143 16 39 112 49 43 39 41 32 63 142 128 56 26 66 49 49 57 36 30 35 6 25 7 38 23 49 44 80 41 67 199 29 19 32 75 54 199 21 30 40 76 57 27 54 75 27 32 32 18 70 38 41 37 59 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 107 143 74 44 295 20 66 35 43 51 17 14 164 48 77 11 75 30 20 36 58 32 24 2 75 54 120 38 54 61 39 68 174 83 115 88 22 40 111 42 112 50 87 51 19 108 49 51 68 125 18 61 17 69 20 21 17 56 25 104 38 35 40 33 189 80 91 64 40 22 58 34 40 149 59 28 35 35 42 55 94 56 65 34 49 36 27 17 118 78 85 62 96 24 64 24 103 85 30 34 55 35 37 63 23 33 36 51 61 41 72 125 31 36 172 70 94 86 69 36 31 40 47 87 17 37 42 89 24 58 112 316 69 28 31 52 43 35 59

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-07 to 2022-02-13

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-02-06 41999 41522 14670 25776 32925 20517 42408 40476 13379 67940 37298 35932 33820 53240 19410 62621 106688 78127 20699 55538 44965 33333 47118 52483 102621 70080 308629 30643 51567 42144 18879 22285 85312 17188 105260 33856 154335 39668 29205 89321 22251 37831 75776 133833 30171 90021 27819 27754 30833 29908 58545 47210 58758 32316 58550 29333 36425 92727 29430 42845 25925 37328 78610 10911 51898 50518 27327 40768 103712 98123 27904 26613 24990 35488 110107 12307 51260 2561 23700 19154 23133 113583 17234 155775 96602 13609 33215 105627 41738 32370 34326 22714 22107 72434 15390 51660 93428 76876 26917 95034 26143 34588 102399 29456 19964 30120 26764 27547 40007 29727 21207 23342 24402 85995 34253 50206 25634 35448 11413 39429 84815 37573 23012 30895 31505 36723 26620 24343 34343 77315 35286 26114 18066 21762 59767 34226 158288 33907 20704 31620 24929 76765 36253 23952 76700 41998 21349 53165 25468 71212 27652 42146 69251 25007 30254 22711 30438 78069 40246 30853 24227 33430 86613 31061 32981 82350 43701 26435 17917 34666 13268 29401 60789 36981 29039 33079 76672 48572 121044 52073 94769 37927 236699 108873 22989 80680 28904 27519 41648 152090 66647 46179 15589 14613 172706 31918 78546 13387 24972 17959 59787 17077 20568 38651 48315 37232 46948 20529 80951 21510 17605 14583 39549 36399 32412 91332 34709 95704 40313 56871 29702 20905 26524 44795 33087 27962 93294 43870 17225 50850 64930 18232 28654 66836 87534 34486 96259 39493 17507 72222 1909 41932 22997 28171 26918 62632 67384 57083 23556 44983 47050 89289 41885 24249 42639 46665 65230 18578 53685 12462 69875 23504 21751 19406 80920 32122 23246 33813 28257 9252 11032 85375 99878 25146 18086 28753 83169 24481 31260 159964 1661 74978 45611 61838 31712 22713 19412 38618 29758 75327 17533 22013 35692 22137 82389 30158 23881 34584 33611 34514 30987 47642 66341 50549 86118 29679 41813 57759 37167 25241 24342 19382 88502 63034 74878 31181 25479 85289 24914 60538 39732 63353 58446 71536 23241 23665 28288 52266 35304 31651 21505 34799 26622 54402 34630 32648 24420 13757 91432 73095 29275 23274 32929 32297 102696 82146 77497 96681 65179 38140 29869 31507 35279 21615 32399 36649 10409 23002 32793 23134 42769 25849 37925 56208 103505 111848 30362 41072 93842 29342 46372 78411 26682 25943 34497 29169 47661 30351 25277 52074
2022-02-07 42170 41680 14760 25860 33050 20580 42700 40900 13450 68440 37660 36070 33960 53780 19600 63050 107200 78350 20750 55940 45170 33650 47470 52910 103300 70520 311000 30760 51690 42300 18920 22370 85560 17340 106100 34210 155300 39830 29440 89900 22380 38060 76420 135000 30350 90720 28060 27900 31060 30130 58900 47320 59240 32720 58940 29540 36800 93270 29540 43100 26100 37490 78860 10940 52250 50910 27610 41190 104600 98900 28010 26880 25160 35730 110500 12370 51500 2569 23800 19210 23370 114300 17340 157200 97360 13660 33450 106300 42080 32680 34530 22920 22210 72750 15510 51820 93760 77340 27160 95950 26310 34700 103300 29580 20120 30350 26870 27860 40310 29990 21270 23470 24450 86650 34560 50520 25860 35750 11450 39770 85440 37790 23120 31020 31670 36930 26770 24610 34490 77770 35360 26360 18170 21900 60180 34450 158900 34260 20810 31900 25070 77320 36450 24000 76960 42380 21460 53550 25570 71650 27860 42450 69830 25180 30440 22890 30600 78600 40520 31100 24360 33650 87350 31180 33230 83090 44130 26500 18000 34850 13320 29600 61200 37230 29150 33480 77450 48790 122000 52210 95360 38040 238500 109700 23140 81200 29030 27750 42000 152900 67120 46530 15650 14800 173800 32210 79040 13450 25110 18000 60270 17240 20800 39020 48550 37510 47250 20620 81770 21590 17700 14700 39630 36760 32540 91980 35010 96230 40440 57200 29850 21130 26620 45150 33360 28230 93630 44070 17310 51160 65120 18300 28770 67520 88330 34800 96930 39650 17570 72720 1917 42410 23100 28360 27120 63370 67800 57560 23610 45270 47310 89890 42000 24370 42970 46810 65350 18630 54150 12550 70060 23640 21810 19540 81430 32470 23400 33970 28580 9341 11080 85860 100700 25340 18140 28950 83420 24580 31520 161300 1668 75670 45880 62110 31960 22830 19540 39100 29900 76000 17650 22230 36050 22230 82530 30470 24030 34940 33840 34740 31220 47920 66800 50860 86620 29930 42180 58060 37490 25340 24570 19440 89040 63240 75520 31480 25650 85850 25050 60990 40120 63510 58770 72050 23410 23860 28500 52760 35590 31920 21680 35130 26840 54740 34950 33010 24480 13830 92080 73470 29440 23390 33110 32450 103000 82840 78010 97420 65550 38540 30170 31870 35630 21830 32630 36890 10470 23070 32900 23250 42920 25990 38360 56560 103800 112500 30690 41460 94220 29700 46550 79090 27000 26220 34690 29460 48090 30450 25520 52430
2022-02-08 42390 41880 14900 25970 33200 20670 43120 41420 13500 69140 37970 36250 34120 54190 19750 63260 107600 78690 20840 56190 45420 33850 47720 53250 104100 70780 312200 30930 51870 42570 19010 22480 85930 17460 106800 34500 156000 40070 29640 90240 22450 38190 76930 135800 30600 91190 28220 28000 31220 30230 59060 47550 59480 33070 59260 29690 37100 93650 29690 43320 26220 37670 79120 10960 52470 51180 27860 41490 105100 99400 28150 27110 25320 35860 110900 12420 51810 2582 23870 19290 23510 115100 17460 158000 97850 13730 33630 106600 42340 32860 34650 23100 22270 73170 15590 52000 94280 77960 27360 96480 26440 34830 103800 29660 20330 30620 26940 28100 40500 30160 21330 23650 24480 87100 34760 51010 26050 36010 11510 40050 85800 37930 23240 31170 31870 37080 26980 24820 34660 78090 35440 26550 18280 21990 60440 34590 159400 34550 20940 32060 25280 77610 36640 24050 77300 42560 21620 53810 25720 71910 27980 42680 70210 25430 30550 23070 30860 78890 40930 31310 24460 33820 87840 31350 33530 83570 44420 26600 18060 35120 13360 29810 61460 37410 29270 33770 77890 49010 122600 52410 95730 38170 239400 110100 23340 81480 29200 27910 42460 153400 67470 46840 15700 14950 174100 32360 79370 13560 25260 18080 60570 17380 21000 39300 48880 37900 47430 20680 82340 21680 17760 14770 39820 37030 32730 92370 35200 96460 40770 57700 29940 21320 26750 45350 33580 28400 93890 44390 17400 51580 65400 18400 28960 68070 88780 35060 97320 39900 17660 72920 1924 42810 23180 28440 27240 63870 68400 57890 23690 45410 47530 90250 42190 24540 43210 46930 65620 18700 54560 12620 70340 23720 21890 19740 81760 32680 23610 34080 28830 9402 11140 86070 101200 25470 18190 29230 83730 24720 31730 162000 1674 76160 46090 62530 32270 22910 19660 39490 30120 76540 17810 22400 36310 22370 82630 30720 24230 35220 33970 35000 31370 48090 67210 51060 86980 30120 42490 58200 37690 25480 24710 19490 89340 63550 75980 31740 25860 86150 25250 61330 40420 63840 59240 72320 23550 24000 28800 53110 35810 32140 21880 35380 27040 54940 35200 33290 24600 13950 92460 73690 29600 23470 33220 32620 103500 83220 78300 97900 65750 38870 30380 32170 35860 21980 32820 37180 10540 23120 33050 23410 43040 26150 38700 56820 104200 113500 30940 41790 94820 29950 46760 79450 27240 26430 34810 29680 48440 30570 25710 52670
2022-02-09 42600 42060 15010 26070 33340 20750 43480 41890 13540 69730 38250 36400 34270 54530 19890 63380 108000 78970 20910 56380 45640 33980 47940 53520 104800 70940 312800 31070 52020 42780 19080 22570 86240 17570 107300 34720 156600 40280 29850 90440 22510 38290 77330 136700 30820 91540 28330 28050 31340 30270 59130 47720 59640 33380 59560 29770 37350 93970 29830 43500 26290 37840 79350 10980 52620 51370 28090 41730 105500 99700 28270 27310 25470 35950 111300 12450 52080 2593 23930 19360 23620 115900 17570 158500 98200 13800 33800 106900 42540 32970 34730 23250 22330 73540 15650 52170 94700 78500 27530 96810 26540 34950 104100 29740 20510 30870 27000 28310 40660 30290 21380 23800 24520 87450 34900 51410 26250 36230 11550 40310 86040 38010 23340 31310 32050 37220 27170 25010 34820 78400 35520 26710 18380 22050 60610 34710 159800 34780 21060 32170 25470 77840 36850 24100 77590 42690 21760 54000 25840 72090 28070 42840 70490 25640 30640 23210 31070 79080 41280 31450 24520 33940 88160 31500 33810 83890 44640 26690 18120 35350 13400 29990 61670 37560 29390 34020 78190 49200 122900 52580 95980 38250 240000 110300 23520 81680 29350 28050 42870 153700 67770 47130 15740 15080 174300 32450 79590 13640 25400 18140 60790 17500 21180 39520 49170 38240 47530 20750 82830 21770 17820 14830 39950 37270 32890 92620 35350 96610 41010 58110 30020 21480 26860 45500 33740 28530 94110 44650 17480 51950 65640 18490 29110 68540 89080 35250 97560 40110 17730 73030 1932 43170 23250 28460 27350 64280 68910 58100 23760 45490 47720 90440 42340 24680 43400 47060 65810 18760 54910 12680 70560 23790 21950 19900 81970 32840 23790 34180 29030 9457 11190 86170 101500 25560 18230 29460 84010 24850 31920 162500 1681 76510 46280 62880 32540 22980 19780 39850 30300 77010 17960 22540 36540 22490 82740 30940 24410 35440 34070 35240 31460 48210 67580 51210 87250 30250 42740 58280 37820 25600 24820 19560 89520 63820 76340 31970 26050 86400 25420 61580 40630 64090 59640 72460 23650 24110 29060 53420 35970 32320 22070 35590 27190 55060 35370 33530 24690 14050 92680 73820 29740 23530 33330 32780 103900 83430 78510 98270 65890 39150 30560 32400 36120 22110 33000 37450 10600 23180 33180 23540 43180 26300 39000 56990 104600 114400 31140 42060 95310 30160 46940 79690 27450 26640 34930 29900 48750 30680 25830 52850
2022-02-10 42790 42230 15110 26160 33470 20820 43800 42330 13580 70280 38480 36550 34410 54830 20010 63580 108400 79220 20970 56570 45860 34120 48170 53730 105500 71170 313700 31200 52150 42950 19130 22660 86520 17650 107800 34920 157000 40470 30010 90700 22560 38360 77740 137300 31020 91910 28440 28130 31460 30330 59240 47860 59820 33640 59810 29880 37550 94230 29950 43620 26360 38000 79570 11010 52800 51580 28290 41960 105900 100100 28390 27490 25600 36040 111700 12490 52340 2602 23980 19420 23720 116600 17670 159100 98550 13850 33970 107200 42740 33110 34830 23370 22380 73880 15710 52330 95080 79000 27670 97190 26610 35080 104600 29800 20670 31100 27050 28520 40830 30420 21440 23930 24550 87790 35050 51770 26400 36430 11600 40540 86320 38120 23430 31440 32230 37320 27330 25180 34970 78660 35600 26850 18480 22100 60790 34830 160200 34990 21170 32310 25630 78150 37020 24140 77870 42820 21890 54180 25960 72300 28160 43000 70810 25840 30730 23320 31260 79300 41590 31590 24610 34060 88510 31640 34060 84240 44880 26760 18160 35560 13420 30160 61870 37720 29500 34260 78510 49370 123300 52730 96290 38340 240700 110500 23680 81930 29490 28170 43240 154100 68030 47390 15770 15190 174600 32570 79860 13720 25540 18180 61040 17620 21320 39750 49440 38540 47660 20810 83240 21850 17860 14870 40060 37470 33040 92900 35490 96820 41190 58490 30090 21620 26960 45660 33920 28660 94290 44880 17570 52290 65860 18570 29250 68960 89390 35450 97860 40300 17800 73200 1940 43480 23310 28520 27440 64630 69380 58330 23820 45590 47880 90730 42480 24820 43590 47150 65970 18810 55230 12740 70770 23870 22010 20050 82200 33000 23950 34270 29200 9501 11240 86330 101800 25650 18290 29670 84270 24960 32090 163100 1688 76870 46430 63180 32790 23020 19880 40160 30460 77420 18080 22660 36740 22600 82820 31150 24570 35660 34180 35480 31570 48340 67870 51370 87530 30410 42980 58410 37980 25710 24930 19610 89770 64060 76660 32160 26230 86660 25580 61830 40850 64290 60000 72660 23750 24220 29290 53680 36120 32490 22240 35770 27320 55230 35560 33720 24770 14130 93030 73980 29870 23610 33410 32940 104300 83720 78730 98630 66060 39370 30710 32640 36340 22220 33140 37700 10670 23230 33300 23660 43290 26440 39260 57180 104900 115200 31320 42300 95750 30360 47110 79990 27610 26800 35000 30080 49010 30780 25940 53060
2022-02-11 42990 42400 15210 26250 33600 20890 44120 42770 13620 70810 38680 36690 34560 55110 20110 63750 108700 79460 21040 56740 46080 34240 48380 53940 106200 71390 314300 31330 52290 43130 19180 22750 86790 17730 108300 35100 157400 40650 30190 90940 22620 38440 78110 138000 31210 92280 28550 28200 31560 30380 59360 48000 59960 33900 60030 29950 37740 94470 30070 43770 26450 38160 79800 11030 52950 51770 28450 42160 106200 100400 28500 27660 25740 36130 112100 12520 52600 2610 24030 19490 23810 117300 17780 159600 98860 13910 34160 107500 42950 33230 34920 23480 22430 74220 15770 52490 95440 79490 27820 97520 26690 35180 105000 29870 20830 31330 27100 28720 40960 30540 21490 24070 24570 88100 35170 52130 26540 36610 11640 40740 86570 38210 23540 31570 32410 37420 27490 25330 35120 78880 35680 26970 18580 22160 60940 34950 160600 35200 21280 32430 25790 78410 37180 24190 78150 42920 22010 54330 26070 72510 28250 43160 71100 26030 30800 23450 31450 79520 41890 31720 24690 34150 88820 31770 34320 84580 45070 26840 18190 35770 13460 30310 62040 37870 29610 34480 78790 49560 123700 52870 96560 38440 241300 110700 23840 82160 29620 28270 43610 154500 68270 47640 15810 15280 174900 32680 80150 13790 25670 18230 61280 17700 21450 39940 49700 38840 47780 20870 83620 21930 17900 14920 40160 37660 33180 93170 35620 97010 41370 58850 30160 21760 27070 45810 34100 28790 94470 45100 17660 52620 66070 18640 29380 69350 89660 35620 98130 40480 17870 73340 1948 43740 23360 28570 27540 64980 69830 58560 23890 45690 48060 91000 42610 24950 43760 47260 66110 18870 55510 12800 70960 23940 22070 20200 82410 33140 24110 34380 29370 9538 11290 86470 102100 25750 18330 29880 84520 25070 32240 163600 1694 77220 46610 63480 33040 23070 19960 40440 30620 77790 18210 22780 36920 22700 82910 31340 24730 35840 34260 35710 31660 48460 68100 51530 87820 30540 43200 58530 38120 25810 25020 19650 89990 64290 76960 32330 26400 86880 25730 62070 41040 64490 60360 72830 23810 24330 29520 53920 36270 32650 22410 35950 27450 55380 35740 33910 24840 14220 93300 74130 30010 23700 33480 33090 104600 83960 78950 98980 66190 39560 30850 32860 36540 22320 33270 37940 10730 23270 33420 23780 43410 26580 39500 57360 105200 115900 31480 42520 96180 30550 47270 80210 27780 26970 35090 30230 49260 30880 26050 53260
2022-02-12 43180 42560 15310 26340 33730 20950 44420 43190 13650 71320 38860 36820 34700 55320 20190 63870 108900 79680 21100 56880 46300 34340 48560 54080 106800 71550 314700 31450 52410 43280 19230 22840 87050 17780 108700 35220 157600 40830 30290 91080 22660 38470 78410 138400 31390 92540 28620 28250 31650 30430 59390 48110 60080 34070 60190 30020 37870 94580 30190 43860 26500 38320 80020 11050 53080 51930 28590 42320 106500 100700 28610 27780 25840 36190 112300 12540 52850 2618 24060 19550 23860 118000 17880 160000 99080 13960 34290 107700 43110 33300 35000 23580 22460 74540 15810 52650 95780 79970 27920 97720 26720 35270 105200 29900 20990 31560 27130 28850 41070 30620 21520 24190 24570 88340 35260 52460 26660 36730 11680 40930 86750 38300 23610 31690 32590 37460 27640 25440 35270 79000 35750 27060 18680 22190 61030 35050 160800 35340 21380 32520 25940 78570 37320 24240 78420 43020 22120 54450 26180 72680 28320 43290 71330 26210 30850 23540 31620 79680 42180 31800 24740 34200 89060 31900 34560 84820 45230 26910 18210 35960 13470 30410 62170 37980 29720 34620 79030 49700 123900 53010 96760 38500 241800 110800 23990 82310 29750 28350 43960 154800 68410 47830 15850 15360 175100 32750 80390 13860 25810 18270 61430 17780 21570 40110 49950 39120 47880 20910 83870 22000 17920 14940 40250 37810 33320 93340 35710 97130 41520 59200 30170 21860 27170 45920 34230 28870 94600 45310 17750 52940 66270 18720 29500 69620 89860 35780 98350 40650 17940 73420 1956 43930 23400 28580 27580 65190 70260 58750 23950 45760 48180 91170 42740 25070 43900 47340 66240 18920 55740 12830 71150 23990 22130 20340 82580 33230 24260 34440 29480 9568 11340 86540 102300 25820 18370 30080 84770 25170 32380 163900 1701 77470 46740 63760 33270 23090 20020 40700 30770 78070 18320 22850 37040 22800 82930 31480 24880 36010 34320 35930 31730 48530 68290 51640 88050 30640 43390 58600 38210 25910 25090 19680 90150 64500 77130 32460 26570 87040 25880 62260 41180 64660 60690 72940 23880 24420 29730 54070 36390 32760 22580 36080 27550 55500 35880 34040 24910 14290 93500 74240 30140 23750 33530 33240 105000 84150 79100 99270 66300 39730 30970 33040 36700 22400 33380 38180 10790 23290 33530 23900 43480 26710 39700 57480 105500 116600 31580 42680 96570 30690 47430 80380 27890 27090 35120 30340 49440 30980 26120 53390
2022-02-13 43360 42720 15400 26430 33850 21010 44720 43610 13670 71820 39070 36950 34840 55610 20300 64030 109300 79910 21150 57050 46510 34460 48800 54270 107500 71770 315400 31560 52540 43440 19270 22920 87300 17860 109200 35390 157900 40990 30450 91280 22710 38520 78750 139000 31570 92890 28740 28330 31770 30490 59490 48220 60200 34300 60380 30120 38070 94730 30300 43950 26580 38470 80240 11080 53250 52140 28760 42530 106800 101000 28720 27970 25960 36290 112600 12560 53090 2626 24090 19610 23950 118600 17980 160500 99390 14010 34460 108000 43320 33390 35080 23700 22480 74850 15860 52810 96110 80430 28060 98040 26760 35330 105600 29940 21140 31780 27160 29020 41230 30730 21570 24310 24590 88650 35400 52780 26820 36930 11720 41150 86990 38390 23720 31820 32760 37520 27790 25590 35420 79160 35830 27190 18780 22250 61180 35170 161000 35530 21480 32660 26080 78820 37560 24290 78680 43120 22240 54600 26280 72880 28420 43500 71590 26380 30930 23660 31790 79900 42460 31930 24830 34260 89360 32020 34800 85080 45430 26980 18240 36150 13490 30570 62330 38100 29830 34840 79250 49900 124300 53140 97040 38640 242400 111000 24140 82510 29880 28440 44310 155200 68640 48070 15910 15460 175300 32840 80690 13930 25940 18310 61660 17890 21710 40320 50200 39390 48010 20970 84230 22080 17940 14950 40330 38000 33450 93590 35860 97310 41660 59540 30210 21970 27270 46070 34410 29000 94750 45510 17840 53260 66460 18790 29620 70000 90080 35960 98620 40810 18000 73560 1964 44170 23420 28620 27630 65500 70690 58930 24010 45840 48390 91450 42860 25190 44090 47410 66360 18970 56050 12890 71330 24070 22190 20480 82820 33370 24410 34580 29640 9618 11390 86670 102600 25900 18400 30270 85010 25270 32530 164400 1707 77820 46910 64040 33510 23130 20100 40940 30910 78440 18440 22970 37230 22900 83080 31680 25030 36220 34410 36150 31830 48670 68550 51800 88320 30780 43590 58710 38370 26010 25200 19720 90380 64720 77410 32650 26740 87260 26020 62490 41380 64830 61030 73120 23960 24530 29940 54290 36560 32940 22740 36260 27690 55660 36070 34230 24970 14370 93770 74410 30290 23860 33580 33390 105300 84420 79310 99640 66450 39920 31100 33260 36910 22500 33520 38420 10850 23330 33640 24010 43560 26850 39960 57660 105800 117300 31750 42900 96960 30870 47590 80610 28020 27250 35170 30500 49690 31080 26220 53650

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-07 to 2022-02-13

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-02-06 41999 41522 14670 25776 32925 20517 42408 40476 13379 67940 37298 35932 33820 53240 19410 62621 106688 78127 20699 55538 44965 33333 47118 52483 102621 70080 308629 30643 51567 42144 18879 22285 85312 17188 105260 33856 154335 39668 29205 89321 22251 37831 75776 133833 30171 90021 27819 27754 30833 29908 58545 47210 58758 32316 58550 29333 36425 92727 29430 42845 25925 37328 78610 10911 51898 50518 27327 40768 103712 98123 27904 26613 24990 35488 110107 12307 51260 2561 23700 19154 23133 113583 17234 155775 96602 13609 33215 105627 41738 32370 34326 22714 22107 72434 15390 51660 93428 76876 26917 95034 26143 34588 102399 29456 19964 30120 26764 27547 40007 29727 21207 23342 24402 85995 34253 50206 25634 35448 11413 39429 84815 37573 23012 30895 31505 36723 26620 24343 34343 77315 35286 26114 18066 21762 59767 34226 158288 33907 20704 31620 24929 76765 36253 23952 76700 41998 21349 53165 25468 71212 27652 42146 69251 25007 30254 22711 30438 78069 40246 30853 24227 33430 86613 31061 32981 82350 43701 26435 17917 34666 13268 29401 60789 36981 29039 33079 76672 48572 121044 52073 94769 37927 236699 108873 22989 80680 28904 27519 41648 152090 66647 46179 15589 14613 172706 31918 78546 13387 24972 17959 59787 17077 20568 38651 48315 37232 46948 20529 80951 21510 17605 14583 39549 36399 32412 91332 34709 95704 40313 56871 29702 20905 26524 44795 33087 27962 93294 43870 17225 50850 64930 18232 28654 66836 87534 34486 96259 39493 17507 72222 1909 41932 22997 28171 26918 62632 67384 57083 23556 44983 47050 89289 41885 24249 42639 46665 65230 18578 53685 12462 69875 23504 21751 19406 80920 32122 23246 33813 28257 9252 11032 85375 99878 25146 18086 28753 83169 24481 31260 159964 1661 74978 45611 61838 31712 22713 19412 38618 29758 75327 17533 22013 35692 22137 82389 30158 23881 34584 33611 34514 30987 47642 66341 50549 86118 29679 41813 57759 37167 25241 24342 19382 88502 63034 74878 31181 25479 85289 24914 60538 39732 63353 58446 71536 23241 23665 28288 52266 35304 31651 21505 34799 26622 54402 34630 32648 24420 13757 91432 73095 29275 23274 32929 32297 102696 82146 77497 96681 65179 38140 29869 31507 35279 21615 32399 36649 10409 23002 32793 23134 42769 25849 37925 56208 103505 111848 30362 41072 93842 29342 46372 78411 26682 25943 34497 29169 47661 30351 25277 52074
2022-02-07 42230 41680 14800 25880 33050 20580 42720 40880 13430 68530 37540 36060 34100 53890 19550 62900 107300 78370 20740 55840 45210 33570 47530 52700 103300 70370 310300 30730 51720 42340 18920 22430 85730 17280 106200 34110 155600 39840 29490 89750 22330 37920 76170 134600 30380 90420 27960 27860 31110 30080 58900 47310 59150 32720 58830 29470 36640 93050 29550 43020 26060 37510 79260 10940 52140 50870 27630 40990 104600 98700 28000 26900 25140 35670 110600 12340 51660 2568 23770 19220 23220 114600 17340 156600 97600 13660 33510 106300 42150 32550 34490 22830 22160 73050 15460 51840 93870 77540 27180 95570 26240 34750 103000 29540 20110 30360 26840 27770 40170 29870 21270 23500 24460 86400 34580 50720 25890 35660 11460 39740 85200 37740 23140 31040 31720 36850 26790 24650 34520 77680 35380 26270 18160 21840 60050 34360 158700 34130 20800 31780 25130 77090 36470 24010 76980 42200 21580 53410 25550 71670 27860 42560 69710 25180 30340 22880 30600 78590 40570 31090 24370 33560 86950 31280 33240 82760 44000 26550 17970 35040 13310 29560 61070 37310 29310 33310 77330 48840 121600 52300 95180 38210 238300 109600 23150 81020 29170 27620 42010 152900 66980 46430 15670 14750 173800 32120 79040 13420 25180 18000 60130 17210 20740 38920 48600 37520 47170 20630 81810 21640 17670 14640 39620 36660 32570 91680 35020 96260 40430 57260 29780 21040 26650 45050 33380 28250 93490 44120 17350 51370 65180 18330 28900 67370 88020 34730 96730 39660 17650 72680 1917 42230 23070 28290 27020 63070 68070 57530 23630 45240 47290 89670 41990 24510 42890 46770 65340 18640 53990 12580 70060 23600 21830 19590 81410 32350 23400 34040 28500 9314 11110 85760 100400 25280 18150 28970 83510 24570 31550 161000 1666 75420 45890 62140 32040 22780 19510 38930 29890 75740 17730 22260 35990 22310 82580 30400 24090 34830 33720 34720 31120 47930 66750 50810 86470 29860 42010 57990 37500 25370 24570 19440 88850 63280 75300 31470 25610 85700 25060 60910 39960 63520 58800 71910 23350 23800 28510 52640 35510 31880 21680 35160 26800 54670 34880 32910 24480 13790 92060 73370 29510 23400 33040 32490 103100 82290 77880 97180 65510 38390 30160 31780 35670 21780 32670 36890 10480 23060 32890 23250 42910 26080 38240 56470 103800 112700 30560 41460 94200 29580 46800 78970 26860 26250 34600 29470 47970 30450 25450 52330
2022-02-08 42460 41860 14920 26000 33200 20650 43070 41330 13470 69180 37820 36220 34350 54340 19710 63120 107800 78700 20810 56070 45500 33780 47840 53000 104000 70660 311600 30850 51940 42530 18970 22540 86100 17400 106900 34340 156400 40030 29710 90180 22400 38020 76730 135500 30630 90840 28110 27990 31280 30180 59080 47460 59400 33070 59110 29590 36910 93380 29710 43200 26190 37710 79740 10960 52350 51090 27880 41260 105100 99200 28140 27130 25310 35820 111000 12380 51940 2574 23830 19300 23310 115400 17440 157300 98100 13730 33710 106800 42420 32710 34610 22970 22220 73410 15530 52030 94350 78180 27420 96010 26340 34890 103500 29610 20280 30610 26910 27970 40340 30040 21330 23640 24520 86760 34790 51100 26040 35900 11520 39970 85530 37870 23260 31150 31940 36980 26980 24870 34710 77980 35470 26430 18300 21930 60330 34480 159100 34380 20910 31940 25300 77330 36690 24080 77370 42420 21730 53680 25670 71970 27970 42850 70040 25340 30470 23050 30800 78880 40910 31250 24480 33690 87390 31460 33520 83130 44260 26660 18020 35290 13350 29760 61370 37490 29520 33590 77760 49130 122100 52480 95590 38440 239200 110100 23310 81290 29320 27740 42380 153400 67320 46790 15750 14880 174400 32260 79440 13480 25350 18040 60360 17330 20910 39160 48940 37850 47440 20700 82380 21780 17720 14700 39730 36900 32700 92130 35220 96700 40630 57740 29840 21200 26750 45240 33600 28420 93670 44360 17500 51790 65500 18440 29080 67900 88480 34970 97100 39850 17750 72940 1927 42590 23150 28410 27110 63560 68640 57990 23700 45430 47570 90010 42240 24670 43100 46860 65500 18700 54320 12650 70310 23680 21900 19760 81710 32540 23590 34230 28740 9375 11160 86050 100800 25400 18200 29190 83740 24660 31740 161700 1672 75920 46180 62480 32330 22830 19620 39240 30060 76240 17890 22420 36190 22410 82740 30630 24250 35110 33800 34950 31270 48160 67160 51030 86810 30040 42310 58160 37700 25490 24710 19500 89160 63610 75760 31700 25790 86080 25250 61210 40200 63740 59230 72200 23470 23930 28760 52990 35730 32050 21870 35410 26970 54870 35110 33170 24560 13880 92630 73620 29730 23520 33140 32730 103500 82610 78240 97650 65780 38690 30380 32050 35910 21940 32850 37150 10550 23100 33000 23350 43030 26270 38500 56700 104100 113500 30760 41790 94710 29800 47150 79340 27070 26480 34700 29660 48240 30570 25620 52560
2022-02-09 42660 42020 15030 26110 33320 20720 43400 41750 13510 69790 38070 36370 34560 54730 19850 63350 108400 79030 20850 56300 45760 33960 48150 53240 104700 70930 312800 30950 52110 42710 19020 22620 86480 17490 107500 34580 157400 40210 29920 90530 22470 38100 77110 136400 30850 91220 28230 28080 31440 30290 59260 47590 59670 33380 59420 29700 37130 93680 29860 43380 26310 37890 80180 10990 52550 51320 28110 41470 105700 99700 28260 27340 25470 35930 111400 12410 52250 2581 23900 19370 23410 116100 17550 158100 98700 13790 33930 107300 42700 32890 34760 23100 22280 73790 15610 52220 94800 78800 27600 96400 26430 35020 104000 29680 20440 30840 26970 28140 40540 30200 21390 23780 24590 87090 35010 51420 26190 36120 11570 40170 85760 38000 23340 31260 32140 37090 27170 25070 34880 78270 35550 26610 18420 22000 60560 34600 159400 34640 21020 32070 25510 77550 36920 24130 77710 42630 21890 53930 25780 72230 28070 43100 70330 25520 30600 23200 30960 79210 41240 31410 24580 33790 87740 31630 33780 83420 44510 26780 18070 35570 13380 29930 61650 37670 29720 33860 78110 49360 122600 52680 95980 38610 240200 110500 23470 81480 29510 27820 42740 153900 67760 47070 15820 15000 175200 32400 79730 13520 25510 18090 60540 17460 21080 39430 49260 38170 47680 20770 82910 21900 17780 14750 39820 37150 32850 92580 35410 97080 40790 58170 29900 21360 26860 45430 33830 28600 93850 44620 17640 52190 65770 18540 29250 68370 88860 35190 97450 40090 17820 73220 1938 42910 23220 28500 27200 63940 69170 58320 23760 45580 47770 90310 42440 24830 43330 46970 65640 18760 54650 12720 70540 23770 21970 19910 82130 32700 23760 34410 28930 9433 11220 86310 101100 25520 18250 29440 83980 24740 31950 162600 1677 76390 46430 62840 32580 22890 19720 39540 30220 76750 18030 22590 36370 22520 82920 30840 24410 35340 33870 35210 31410 48380 67520 51230 87190 30200 42540 58320 37890 25610 24850 19570 89470 63910 76110 31930 25970 86420 25410 61520 40430 63950 59640 72490 23560 24070 28980 53330 35890 32240 22050 35650 27130 55050 35330 33410 24640 13940 93060 73880 29910 23630 33240 32980 104000 82870 78620 98100 66050 38960 30570 32280 36180 22070 33020 37410 10620 23150 33090 23450 43170 26450 38740 56920 104500 114300 30920 42060 95180 30000 47580 79650 27250 26730 34800 29850 48530 30690 25750 52850
2022-02-10 42870 42200 15110 26210 33480 20780 43730 42160 13550 70380 38330 36500 34750 55040 19950 63560 108800 79310 20900 56500 46060 34110 48430 53390 105400 71140 313800 31090 52260 42840 19070 22750 86720 17580 108100 34800 157900 40380 30100 90780 22530 38170 77390 137100 31050 91560 28340 28160 31570 30360 59430 47710 59920 33640 59630 29810 37290 93930 30000 43510 26400 38080 80540 11010 52710 51480 28350 41700 106200 100100 28390 27540 25610 36040 111800 12440 52460 2588 23950 19440 23470 116900 17660 158500 99200 13840 34190 107600 42910 33000 34870 23200 22330 74160 15670 52400 95080 79170 27750 96750 26510 35160 104500 29740 20590 31060 27020 28340 40700 30350 21450 23890 24640 87510 35160 51860 26370 36300 11620 40410 86180 38100 23460 31330 32430 37190 27340 25240 35050 78530 35630 26730 18520 22060 60740 34750 159700 34820 21130 32210 25630 77890 37180 24190 77940 42840 22010 54080 25880 72620 28190 43310 70820 25700 30720 23320 31080 79420 41540 31610 24670 33910 87970 31790 34030 83870 44750 26890 18110 35780 13410 30140 61910 37830 29930 34050 78600 49540 123200 52840 96330 38710 241500 110700 23610 81880 29630 27930 43100 154400 68020 47390 15870 15100 175700 32500 80040 13570 25670 18130 60790 17580 21230 39660 49560 38470 47910 20830 83360 22010 17820 14800 39910 37380 32980 92900 35530 97290 40940 58580 29970 21500 26960 45580 33980 28740 94020 44810 17760 52580 65970 18620 29390 68790 89150 35390 98020 40260 17880 73410 1947 43110 23280 28570 27280 64270 69550 58570 23830 45710 48020 90790 42590 24950 43520 47060 65770 18810 54980 12770 70710 23840 22010 20070 82450 32870 23890 34530 29100 9482 11260 86530 101700 25640 18310 29630 84270 24880 32130 163100 1683 76800 46620 63040 32780 22930 19830 39810 30320 77380 18160 22680 36590 22630 83060 31030 24560 35540 33960 35430 31550 48660 67780 51480 87480 30360 42730 58530 38080 25690 24970 19620 89800 64190 76390 32100 26150 86720 25550 61710 40580 64100 60030 72700 23640 24190 29200 53630 35990 32390 22230 35870 27260 55230 35510 33580 24710 14010 93410 74100 30070 23730 33320 33150 104400 83040 78910 98520 66230 39210 30730 32500 36430 22190 33150 37660 10690 23200 33230 23600 43280 26580 39070 57100 104800 115100 31150 42250 95560 30190 47820 79870 27410 26900 34880 30110 48790 30850 25830 53180
2022-02-11 43060 42360 15270 26310 33610 20850 44050 42560 13590 70960 38530 36630 34870 55220 20050 63750 109000 79550 21040 56680 46550 34260 48710 53850 106100 71260 314500 31160 52330 42920 19110 22810 86840 17630 108400 34930 158100 40480 30280 90930 22550 38250 78060 137600 31260 91800 28410 28190 31690 30410 59850 47820 60030 33850 59830 29900 37620 94180 30110 43670 26490 38260 80880 11030 52800 51800 28540 42070 106600 100400 28500 27670 25730 36110 112200 12470 52920 2595 24000 19510 23650 117400 17760 159200 99300 13870 34310 107900 43060 33090 34990 23390 22380 74450 15720 52580 95290 79500 27880 97030 26590 35250 104700 29810 20740 31220 27070 28650 40780 30490 21490 24010 24680 87790 35270 52150 26650 36420 11660 40720 86360 38150 23630 31490 32590 37290 27510 25380 35210 78750 35700 26840 18680 22100 60850 34850 160000 35180 21240 32320 25870 78090 37340 24230 78150 42880 22120 54200 25960 72730 28410 43450 71090 25830 30770 23410 31350 79550 41810 31720 24750 34000 88700 31930 34250 84120 44890 26930 18150 35920 13440 30240 62140 37950 30100 34310 78920 49690 123500 52960 96550 38980 242200 111500 23720 82170 29710 28170 43460 154900 68190 47560 15910 15160 175900 32580 80190 13680 25820 18160 61210 17680 21350 39860 49860 38770 48130 20890 83620 22090 17860 14850 39990 37590 33080 93090 35810 97470 41080 58970 30030 21660 27040 45650 34260 28810 94170 44940 17880 52920 66080 18700 29480 69060 89420 35540 98180 40340 17910 73480 1957 43520 23340 28620 27380 64470 70230 58780 23890 45790 48500 91010 42710 25050 43690 47150 65890 18830 55300 12880 71100 23910 22090 20180 82600 32950 24010 34610 29250 9526 11300 86650 102100 25720 18350 29810 84800 24980 32290 163400 1688 77210 46740 63350 33130 22990 19890 40090 30550 77630 18270 22880 36910 22680 83210 31190 24700 35660 34210 35630 31630 48750 68390 51600 87670 30460 43030 58690 38220 25740 25030 19660 89950 64420 76530 32400 26310 86890 25670 62080 40930 64270 60410 72830 23680 24320 29340 53840 36240 32660 22400 36010 27350 55380 35660 33740 24770 14130 93530 74210 30180 23820 33410 33320 104600 83550 79010 98920 66290 39370 30840 32720 36580 22260 33230 37910 10760 23240 33320 23710 43380 26840 39240 57250 105100 115900 31310 42630 95930 30370 48310 80320 27500 27080 34960 30250 49020 30960 25920 53380
2022-02-12 43190 42490 15400 26420 33750 20910 44370 42950 13610 71540 38840 36760 35110 55640 20200 64180 109700 80030 21140 56910 46980 34400 48990 54230 106800 71680 316800 31370 52700 43200 19160 22960 87340 17730 109100 35180 159400 40800 30510 91450 22670 38310 78710 138600 31450 92500 28600 28340 31830 30520 60220 47930 60440 34160 60220 30020 37930 94370 30270 43780 26610 38440 81600 11050 53200 52040 28750 42370 107300 101000 28640 27920 25930 36320 112400 12490 53330 2601 24050 19580 23890 118300 17870 160300 100100 13960 34530 108600 43370 33300 35110 23570 22420 74710 15800 52760 96010 80020 28050 97450 26660 35330 105400 29850 20890 31500 27110 28880 41030 30640 21520 24120 24710 88280 35560 52600 26880 36650 11710 41020 86860 38370 23780 31670 32860 37350 27670 25600 35370 78910 35770 27040 18860 22180 61210 34990 160100 35500 21360 32440 26090 78570 37590 24270 78570 43130 22290 54530 26140 73150 28590 43770 71640 26060 31040 23580 31600 80090 42120 31880 24880 34090 89300 32080 34560 84730 45200 27100 18180 36190 13470 30350 62440 38160 30280 34570 79340 50060 124300 53250 97120 39240 243900 112300 23940 82650 29920 28330 43830 155700 68770 47880 16010 15290 176500 32810 80670 13800 25980 18200 61710 17780 21500 40150 50150 39070 48350 20930 84290 22250 17880 14890 40070 37820 33200 93780 36070 98040 41220 59370 30050 21810 27110 45930 34520 29020 94320 45230 17990 53290 66500 18780 29700 69620 89940 35820 98630 40640 18060 73930 1967 43930 23390 28840 27460 65170 70730 59170 23950 46100 48930 91610 42940 25260 44000 47220 66010 18930 55620 12970 71620 23980 22220 20350 82880 33190 24210 34790 29500 9581 11340 87110 102500 25870 18390 30080 85000 25060 32570 164500 1694 77640 47130 63880 33440 23030 20030 40370 30780 78160 18390 23070 37180 22810 83310 31470 24850 35910 34410 35900 31850 49020 68870 51940 88230 30660 43370 58970 38380 25900 25170 19690 90470 64790 77010 32660 26460 87450 25860 62520 41250 64430 60800 73260 23860 24450 29590 54170 36500 32860 22570 36260 27540 55580 35950 33950 24830 14230 94110 74620 30410 23980 33490 33640 105300 84480 79440 99410 66620 39640 31070 32900 36870 22430 33460 38170 10830 23260 33450 23810 43450 27020 39570 57540 105300 116600 31520 42980 96370 30570 48820 80960 27690 27320 35020 30470 49420 31080 26080 53740
2022-02-13 43360 42640 15490 26520 33900 20970 44690 43360 13640 72120 39090 36900 35270 56010 20330 64410 110600 80260 21270 57060 47310 34660 49230 54570 107500 72040 318200 31520 52970 43400 19200 23040 87740 17840 109600 35410 160100 41040 30710 92060 22770 38390 79160 139200 31650 93000 28770 28450 31940 30630 60380 48050 60690 34470 60570 30140 38160 94590 30400 43910 26720 38620 82060 11070 53420 52270 28950 42640 107800 101500 28770 28100 26090 36480 112700 12520 53570 2608 24100 19650 24030 118900 17980 161100 100500 14020 34700 108900 43590 33450 35210 23730 22460 74930 15870 52930 96470 80700 28290 97920 26730 35400 105900 29900 21050 31760 27150 29170 41180 30790 21550 24270 24760 88650 35720 52900 27040 36980 11760 41270 87190 38530 23970 31850 33120 37420 27830 25780 35540 79100 35850 27220 19000 22250 61490 35120 160300 35740 21470 32610 26250 78940 37850 24300 78970 43280 22410 54810 26290 73450 28710 44040 71950 26260 31170 23710 31810 80360 42420 32100 24980 34170 89760 32230 34840 85180 45470 27190 18210 36380 13490 30590 62710 38300 30440 34990 79680 50350 124900 53430 97480 39370 244800 112800 24100 82920 30050 28470 44190 156100 69110 48120 16110 15430 176800 32970 81090 13880 26110 18230 61990 17900 21660 40400 50450 39370 48570 21000 84770 22410 17920 14940 40150 38050 33320 94310 36240 98480 41350 59760 30090 21960 27220 46170 34700 29190 94500 45470 18150 53600 66820 18870 29830 70140 90360 36060 99080 40860 18140 74270 1977 44260 23430 28980 27520 65650 71180 59390 24010 46320 49240 91960 43250 25390 44250 47290 66130 19010 55960 13030 71880 24070 22310 20490 83150 33410 24390 35070 29700 9643 11420 87380 102900 25980 18430 30300 85430 25150 32740 165200 1700 78130 47440 64180 33660 23070 20150 40680 30950 78510 18500 23210 37400 22890 83450 31710 24980 36160 34540 36200 31990 49180 69200 52100 88610 30850 43630 59210 38530 26040 25360 19730 90790 65060 77690 32880 26720 87840 26040 62840 41500 64570 61160 73570 23990 24590 29810 54500 36720 33150 22750 36470 27710 55720 36160 34230 24900 14360 94460 74900 30570 24130 33560 33840 105700 84980 79800 99870 66950 39870 31250 33140 37090 22550 33640 38420 10900 23290 33570 23910 43540 27200 39910 57800 105600 117400 31730 43250 96910 30770 49140 81410 27870 27490 35110 30640 49740 31200 26310 54050

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.