COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-02-16 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-02-16

Slideshow of forecasts 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how we lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-02-16

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-272022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-02-062021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-02-062021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Peak daily increment 4170 5463 553 1154 1309 1576 805 437 860 1802 1412 1616 1267 2312 621 3556 4817 4040 1042 2622 1678 1429 1691 2380 1195 3389 17856 1593 3405 2320 319 992 4757 679 4835 1420 9114 1590 939 4309 956 508 3250 6823 1145 3893 1196 1199 1348 2066 3020 611 2986 1186 2317 1347 1436 1131 1397 528 1256 456 3071 192 2416 2140 1090 1555 4009 4960 1198 964 968 1570 8420 759 1977 139 403 813 1023 4084 526 8315 4559 574 1460 5126 1618 1620 1669 874 267 3602 497 913 4844 2362 1228 4822 2247 2196 4715 1917 653 1063 1439 877 1503 1114 1709 907 1608 3171 1620 1642 1012 1292 438 1388 3711 1703 1006 1207 1055 2496 991 928 560 6793 482 1064 776 889 3044 1551 6868 1489 871 1513 1171 3474 1265 323 3447 2154 840 2203 1138 3326 1236 1523 3173 872 1804 839 1246 4280 1747 1211 1081 2804 3934 1362 1177 3973 1448 1745 1014 1263 234 1050 2720 1078 1248 1306 3742 2060 6394 3386 4690 1776 11584 6515 790 3618 1227 1308 667 9393 3893 2011 602 554 10336 1597 3738 521 698 246 2630 525 629 1267 1101 653 2924 1417 3382 839 189 1626 532 1331 1316 5049 1568 5480 518 1157 1739 674 973 1970 1123 1099 3910 1893 534 1962 3055 833 1237 2952 3889 1434 5393 1871 843 4479 277 1619 291 1868 2415 3094 2730 2642 315 2559 2262 4593 2376 1091 1690 2112 1026 806 2056 528 4119 984 1248 767 4352 1303 921 1334 1212 265 350 4847 6074 975 1498 1075 4558 848 1192 8506 641 3366 2387 2952 1107 1520 785 1612 1244 3113 595 859 1485 804 4732 1078 885 1121 1694 1048 1418 2599 3133 2404 4206 1291 1619 3143 1783 1142 1039 1324 3969 3762 3830 1029 962 4630 934 2717 1771 890 2389 3909 1006 854 966 2591 1411 1116 828 1588 1038 2848 1256 1395 341 435 5517 3387 1046 909 422 1151 5245 4453 3960 4433 3117 1588 1290 1082 1209 797 1414 1128 255 1047 1636 925 2811 898 1435 1708 5923 3920 1029 1566 5002 1333 1840 4263 1219 813 397 1150 2207 1488 1097 2210
Days since peak 10 10 23 23 23 10 23 51 10 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 50 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 50 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 50 23 23 23 23 23 50 23 49 23 49 23 49 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 10 10 23 10 50 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 49 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 10 10 23 10 23 23 10 23 23 23 10 23 10 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 10 23 23 49 10 50 23 23 23 23 23 10 23 23 23 23 23 23 50 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 10 23 23 23 23 23 23 10 23 50 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 51 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 10 23 23 50 10 49 23 23 23 23 23 51 23 10 23 23 23 23 23 10 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 10 23 50 23 10 23 23 23 48 23 23 23 23 23 23 10 51 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 10 23 23 23 23 23 10 23 23 23 23 10 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 10 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 10 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 49 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 49 23 23 23 23 23 50 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 10 23 23 10 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 50 23 23 23 23 23
Last total 49786 51253 15464 26417 33811 24094 44932 43341 15261 71681 39171 36689 35073 55283 20194 63605 109385 79379 21014 56640 46883 34112 48890 53897 108521 71435 314086 31171 52109 42902 19170 22809 86480 17733 109310 34932 156919 40850 30467 91369 22699 38271 79136 138943 31400 92458 28541 28303 31656 30205 59314 47803 59705 34050 60522 29919 37793 94580 30124 43838 26352 39209 80911 11360 53072 51777 28814 42405 106659 100705 28510 28005 25895 36104 126428 13725 53109 2919 24141 19588 23804 118633 18030 158962 98854 13887 34451 108322 43212 33131 35003 23481 22451 74396 15864 53622 94854 80457 27980 96824 30038 39262 105148 32823 20843 31840 29814 28894 41158 30475 24226 24106 27460 88302 35200 52431 26805 36658 11704 40915 86459 38307 23693 31753 33129 41612 27616 25401 35693 89077 35884 27087 18939 22151 60928 35115 172466 35543 21395 32304 25782 78536 37943 24429 78814 42826 21975 54728 26082 72867 28188 43732 71132 26128 30750 23730 31465 79429 41866 31701 24853 39484 88859 31698 35157 84305 45130 26727 20023 35899 13501 30904 62827 38122 29944 34609 78714 50143 123194 52915 97383 38815 241697 110446 24051 82783 29566 28128 44640 155051 68012 47808 15999 15437 175294 32519 80542 13761 26025 18179 61618 17970 21805 40267 50430 39539 47717 23525 83476 22279 17988 17306 40098 38051 33149 93368 35574 97578 40870 59296 32911 21721 27170 45771 34473 28810 101544 44803 18071 53034 66355 18595 29270 69385 89726 36037 98336 40406 17812 73060 2689 43795 23508 28478 31502 64582 70442 58857 24045 45754 48917 90885 42461 24993 44110 51013 66060 18819 55637 12877 70777 24102 22093 20418 82279 33194 24123 34740 29382 9596 11399 86629 101505 25832 20901 30018 84685 25032 32287 163266 3143 77264 46790 63340 33609 25492 19976 40352 30588 78426 18358 22869 36721 22668 91046 31568 24854 36060 34160 36475 31641 48595 68689 51685 88642 30540 43260 58623 38148 25820 25024 22203 90028 64036 76562 32439 26766 86942 25787 62214 40822 64382 60648 72542 23730 24445 29697 53696 36229 32825 22802 35999 27458 55369 35891 34044 24801 14200 93770 74326 30357 23928 33514 33639 104398 83563 79344 99841 66418 39547 30710 33231 36924 22372 33302 38520 10918 25117 33382 23736 48268 26968 39871 58082 104961 117046 31452 42556 95862 30520 48181 79788 27750 27452 35022 30507 49304 30937 26017 53664
Last daily increment 345 435 90 63 70 189 237 305 108 298 191 64 122 178 84 68 245 104 37 121 181 60 153 127 566 121 425 49 40 65 10 34 105 34 325 91 193 98 111 170 50 29 296 506 117 217 53 50 74 27 73 52 70 171 178 53 132 124 63 52 41 196 187 21 110 103 127 155 268 171 53 110 87 54 644 50 153 22 25 52 78 455 74 268 199 28 106 231 127 56 65 80 14 151 51 221 114 310 107 178 123 203 240 138 76 154 134 117 102 56 133 70 127 209 70 212 110 112 28 118 154 81 49 66 132 225 98 79 114 395 32 95 75 41 114 72 713 119 65 44 79 153 131 37 204 69 72 140 59 153 52 115 167 102 34 100 120 137 120 64 68 315 172 53 183 151 117 20 113 109 16 129 209 104 74 130 200 127 184 99 252 80 391 136 118 229 61 46 273 263 106 161 44 90 226 44 164 38 104 17 179 85 112 144 216 216 78 131 221 64 23 127 44 174 67 191 87 150 40 282 140 50 61 73 149 72 431 70 75 185 142 27 40 223 195 161 167 61 20 50 70 154 32 19 178 147 261 196 24 55 145 134 33 77 123 226 52 29 170 35 73 61 26 94 122 105 73 80 101 34 33 113 117 61 130 124 152 48 86 281 65 224 98 143 171 107 42 159 76 296 83 82 83 45 408 141 100 128 49 181 49 90 231 116 237 71 143 77 107 48 58 121 147 81 138 127 136 166 76 160 108 47 153 92 50 78 126 110 84 123 123 109 85 93 113 122 24 46 222 98 109 65 52 134 137 113 194 305 109 129 75 160 154 70 75 182 52 103 61 43 244 120 179 173 104 463 108 126 184 101 143 104 86 150 16 120 154 50 68 141
Last week 1718 2061 452 321 471 987 1389 1534 532 1861 997 353 644 1089 414 426 1344 635 183 541 993 353 887 668 3020 683 2667 278 257 372 149 250 513 249 2133 506 1226 605 641 1054 239 211 1689 2664 674 1185 340 264 440 147 371 292 455 821 990 303 730 891 329 437 211 1050 1129 187 605 613 715 847 1549 1273 306 665 453 317 3757 343 911 138 219 240 362 2630 425 1620 1107 140 648 1335 703 355 341 405 150 914 249 1147 700 1840 547 927 642 1119 1374 709 447 858 748 678 559 354 625 383 653 1233 483 1164 587 624 141 756 793 385 349 431 826 1200 519 514 753 2367 282 476 414 194 601 431 3859 868 375 302 450 883 868 227 1013 452 340 742 340 846 266 811 880 589 234 517 547 729 776 423 296 1735 1060 297 1137 917 738 138 556 636 97 779 1065 554 438 749 1073 739 1015 446 1353 409 2453 733 537 1061 356 314 1587 1517 654 824 225 425 1273 278 1003 189 538 106 942 468 650 862 1153 1189 408 716 1273 403 196 541 262 898 383 1080 463 926 273 1317 690 392 322 442 673 416 2190 430 430 1147 736 166 283 1255 1155 858 1007 432 122 424 276 947 227 124 984 921 1537 919 233 372 920 762 277 436 750 1114 391 130 963 223 465 318 166 512 666 576 396 446 565 171 193 645 768 356 686 668 755 278 494 1608 461 1188 521 765 959 570 280 899 412 1648 423 414 483 252 1953 751 514 791 261 1063 355 491 1219 612 1294 425 709 462 553 288 341 724 750 480 831 674 736 858 432 834 547 417 1098 504 237 357 732 699 443 690 671 585 409 468 599 719 164 226 1144 602 562 358 310 703 845 721 948 1604 655 718 403 846 809 372 469 990 268 566 315 284 1389 623 996 961 748 2830 583 700 1046 566 942 695 553 805 239 671 803 290 390 790
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-11-112021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-07-162021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-20 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-06-062021-07-162021-10-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-142021-10-192021-10-102021-08-052021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-10-18 --2021-07-142021-10-18 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012021-07-152021-11-03 --2021-07-14 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-242021-06-29 --2021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302021-06-05 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-07-142021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-06 --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-142021-07-122021-07-142021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-172021-07-14 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-10-142021-09-02 -- --2021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-14 --2021-07-152021-07-162021-07-15 --2021-07-112021-07-162021-07-152021-07-29 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-06-292021-08-182021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-15 --2021-11-092021-09-15 --2021-07-142021-07-112021-07-15 -- -- --2021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 -- --2021-08-302021-09-29 --2021-10-182021-07-122021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-08-032021-07-152021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-06-29 -- --2021-06-29 --2021-07-15 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192021-06-062021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-09-012021-08-17 -- --2021-07-162021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-17 -- --2021-10-042021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142021-07-13 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-182021-07-152021-06-29 --2021-08-172021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-08-192021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-07-172021-07-142021-07-152021-10-182021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-142021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-162021-07-08
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 260 276 70 139 152 144 287 379 176 943 127 159 126 202 293 107 478 103 176 68 218 621 4 258 94 72 97 74 160 249 177 72 159 115 101 227 67 170 203 269 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 142 21 114 708 607 376 53 101 229 122 140 92 86 64 202 400 269 137 188 133 135 183 122 100 65 157 15 61 22 105 58 110 128 185 88 171 421 67 56 82 274 123 941 95 63 113 163 229 84 156 152 61 65 146 54 151 87 82 90 203 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 247 316 301 117 707 51 213 80 99 120 41 47 448 96 169 40 164 72 72 101 274 115 49 78 184 116 384 105 164 123 94 256 621 176 291 228 77 96 322 87 264 158 255 143 118 343 297 114 289 268 40 140 67 213 75 73 49 116 70 253 94 78 123 96 482 169 277 202 118 49 345 86 85 470 128 68 77 92 106 303 200 152 243 70 131 87 77 91 243 339 240 201 428 57 145 101 329 219 85 143 137 116 92 150 92 78 105 131 134 106 226 286 64 79 352 157 313 195 144 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 99 63 117 120 74 138
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 42 2 28 49 59 18 128 103 28 53 51 54 99 179 71 406 33 65 31 75 124 39 190 42 75 22 83 100 2 100 38 34 44 31 68 97 73 35 58 22 21 92 25 46 68 129 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 64 5 25 227 190 143 16 39 112 49 43 39 41 32 63 142 128 56 26 47 49 49 57 36 30 30 6 25 7 38 23 49 44 80 41 67 199 29 19 32 75 54 199 21 30 40 76 57 27 54 75 27 32 32 18 70 38 41 37 59 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 107 143 74 44 295 20 66 35 43 51 17 14 164 48 77 11 75 30 20 36 58 32 24 32 75 54 120 38 52 61 39 68 134 83 115 88 22 40 111 42 112 50 87 51 19 108 49 51 68 125 18 61 17 69 20 21 17 56 25 104 38 17 40 33 189 80 91 64 34 22 58 34 40 149 59 28 35 35 42 55 94 56 65 34 49 36 27 30 118 78 85 62 96 24 64 24 103 85 30 34 55 35 37 63 23 33 36 51 61 41 72 125 31 36 172 70 94 86 69 36 31 40 47 87 17 37 42 75 24 58 112 316 69 28 31 52 43 35 59

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-17 to 2022-02-23

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-02-16 49786 51253 15464 26417 33811 24094 44932 43341 15261 71681 39171 36689 35073 55283 20194 63605 109385 79379 21014 56640 46883 34112 48890 53897 108521 71435 314086 31171 52109 42902 19170 22809 86480 17733 109310 34932 156919 40850 30467 91369 22699 38271 79136 138943 31400 92458 28541 28303 31656 30205 59314 47803 59705 34050 60522 29919 37793 94580 30124 43838 26352 39209 80911 11360 53072 51777 28814 42405 106659 100705 28510 28005 25895 36104 126428 13725 53109 2919 24141 19588 23804 118633 18030 158962 98854 13887 34451 108322 43212 33131 35003 23481 22451 74396 15864 53622 94854 80457 27980 96824 30038 39262 105148 32823 20843 31840 29814 28894 41158 30475 24226 24106 27460 88302 35200 52431 26805 36658 11704 40915 86459 38307 23693 31753 33129 41612 27616 25401 35693 89077 35884 27087 18939 22151 60928 35115 172466 35543 21395 32304 25782 78536 37943 24429 78814 42826 21975 54728 26082 72867 28188 43732 71132 26128 30750 23730 31465 79429 41866 31701 24853 39484 88859 31698 35157 84305 45130 26727 20023 35899 13501 30904 62827 38122 29944 34609 78714 50143 123194 52915 97383 38815 241697 110446 24051 82783 29566 28128 44640 155051 68012 47808 15999 15437 175294 32519 80542 13761 26025 18179 61618 17970 21805 40267 50430 39539 47717 23525 83476 22279 17988 17306 40098 38051 33149 93368 35574 97578 40870 59296 32911 21721 27170 45771 34473 28810 101544 44803 18071 53034 66355 18595 29270 69385 89726 36037 98336 40406 17812 73060 2689 43795 23508 28478 31502 64582 70442 58857 24045 45754 48917 90885 42461 24993 44110 51013 66060 18819 55637 12877 70777 24102 22093 20418 82279 33194 24123 34740 29382 9596 11399 86629 101505 25832 20901 30018 84685 25032 32287 163266 3143 77264 46790 63340 33609 25492 19976 40352 30588 78426 18358 22869 36721 22668 91046 31568 24854 36060 34160 36475 31641 48595 68689 51685 88642 30540 43260 58623 38148 25820 25024 22203 90028 64036 76562 32439 26766 86942 25787 62214 40822 64382 60648 72542 23730 24445 29697 53696 36229 32825 22802 35999 27458 55369 35891 34044 24801 14200 93770 74326 30357 23928 33514 33639 104398 83563 79344 99841 66418 39547 30710 33231 36924 22372 33302 38520 10918 25117 33382 23736 48268 26968 39871 58082 104961 117046 31452 42556 95862 30520 48181 79788 27750 27452 35022 30507 49304 30937 26017 53664
2022-02-17 50110 51620 15550 26450 33870 24260 45080 43630 15360 72020 39350 36760 35200 55460 20280 63830 109900 79500 21050 56850 47070 34190 49040 54020 109100 71680 314800 31230 52170 42980 19200 22880 86610 17780 109700 35040 157200 40970 30570 91780 22750 38290 79340 139400 31520 92850 28610 28370 31730 30240 59400 47860 59860 34200 60780 29980 37930 94770 30190 43930 26440 39390 81140 11390 53240 51910 28930 42570 107100 100900 28580 28080 25990 36190 127100 13790 53210 2939 24190 19630 23860 119200 18110 159300 99200 13920 34570 108700 43360 33210 35100 23560 22550 74600 15940 53800 95030 80670 28090 97030 30180 39470 105500 32960 20920 31930 29950 29020 41340 30550 24350 24160 27580 88620 35290 52640 26860 36780 11720 41040 86710 38410 23760 31850 33280 41820 27710 25500 35860 89530 36050 27240 19020 22190 61070 35190 173300 35700 21440 32380 25870 78710 38110 24520 79090 42900 22040 54850 26150 73110 28250 43880 71310 26250 30800 23820 31570 79630 42010 31780 24910 39760 89060 31730 35370 84480 45370 26760 20110 36020 13570 31170 63030 38430 30030 34740 78970 50290 123400 52990 98050 38950 242500 110800 24140 83040 29610 28190 44940 155500 68140 47970 16060 15520 175800 32650 80870 13800 26140 18200 61870 18060 21920 40420 50640 39770 47800 23660 83860 22350 18060 17410 40200 38220 33230 93640 35740 97740 40930 59530 33040 21800 27240 45870 34590 28890 101900 44900 18150 53250 66480 18630 29330 69640 89990 36190 98580 40480 17840 73160 2731 44090 23560 28520 31690 64930 70730 59010 24090 45830 49200 91170 42520 25070 44280 51260 66120 18850 55760 12900 70930 24170 22120 20510 82520 33290 24210 34840 29500 9635 11440 86790 101800 25900 21020 30140 84820 25090 32400 163600 3214 77490 46900 63500 33760 25600 20030 40500 30670 78740 18440 23010 36830 22740 91390 31680 24950 36200 34210 36650 31710 48700 68940 51850 89190 30690 43390 58720 38250 25890 25090 22330 90300 64140 76840 32570 26900 87100 25870 62470 40930 64570 60850 72650 23830 24510 29820 53830 36310 32950 22940 36110 27620 55460 36110 34250 24850 14250 94390 74500 30470 24020 33540 33770 104600 83720 79600 100100 66570 39690 30790 33380 37070 22490 33390 38640 10970 25220 33470 23800 48510 27080 40150 58300 105100 117500 31560 42700 96070 30620 48350 79940 27850 27610 35090 30650 49450 31010 26110 53810
2022-02-18 50440 51970 15680 26490 33970 24400 45270 44180 15440 72460 39570 36870 35350 55700 20370 63970 110200 79660 21090 56980 47330 34330 49210 54220 110100 71830 315200 31320 52260 43080 19270 22930 86800 17860 110200 35200 157500 41130 30690 92070 22800 38330 79550 140000 31680 93100 28710 28410 31820 30290 59530 47950 59960 34340 60950 30060 38110 94900 30280 44080 26500 39550 81510 11410 53330 52100 29050 42770 107400 101300 28680 28190 26140 36250 128000 13850 53330 2955 24290 19700 23930 119900 18260 159800 99400 13940 34740 108900 43480 33330 35160 23670 22620 74880 16080 53930 95320 80930 28230 97350 30340 39720 105800 33060 21030 32050 30070 29190 41440 30660 24470 24250 27690 88840 35390 52910 26950 36950 11740 41150 86870 38480 23850 32050 33470 41990 27840 25630 36080 89980 36150 27330 19140 22250 61180 35250 173800 35910 21490 32500 25990 78810 38310 24590 79530 42990 22130 54920 26230 73250 28350 44100 71570 26420 30870 23920 31700 79750 42260 31910 24980 39970 89360 31760 35730 84780 45530 26800 20180 36190 13610 31340 63170 38620 30160 34940 79150 50380 123800 53070 98420 39030 242900 110900 24240 83210 29650 28280 45470 155800 68380 48170 16100 15580 176200 32730 81080 13870 26330 18220 62030 18220 22060 40600 51020 40050 47920 23800 84110 22450 18120 17480 40380 38400 33340 93830 35850 97960 41030 59800 33150 21910 27320 46020 34720 29010 102200 45060 18260 53510 66640 18690 29430 70000 90180 36370 98750 40600 17890 73210 2764 44280 23660 28610 31880 65150 71110 59190 24200 45950 49360 91320 42610 25180 44420 51410 66200 18880 55890 12940 71020 24290 22170 20630 82650 33410 24350 34970 29670 9716 11510 86890 101900 25990 21140 30300 85020 25170 32560 164100 3288 77780 47090 63700 33930 25700 20110 40650 30780 79130 18540 23100 37010 22770 91690 31780 25080 36380 34290 36810 31800 48890 69270 51970 89520 30770 43580 58840 38380 26070 25190 22460 90460 64290 77010 32750 27060 87310 25990 62640 41090 64670 61150 72820 23880 24590 29970 54030 36410 33100 23110 36240 27710 55550 36230 34380 24940 14300 94750 74610 30610 24100 33580 33930 104800 83980 79760 100300 66660 39870 30920 33540 37230 22570 33460 38780 11060 25300 33540 23900 48750 27210 40340 58460 105400 118100 31690 42910 96340 30740 48590 80160 27980 27870 35150 30930 49660 31200 26190 54020
2022-02-19 50770 52340 15790 26530 34050 24560 45450 44600 15500 72850 39770 36960 35500 55910 20460 64080 110500 79800 21140 57090 47560 34440 49370 54380 110900 71960 315600 31400 52330 43170 19330 22970 86960 17930 110700 35350 157700 41270 30800 92310 22840 38360 79680 140500 31820 93320 28790 28460 31910 30330 59630 48020 60070 34440 61080 30130 38260 94950 30370 44200 26550 39720 81820 11440 53430 52270 29180 42950 107600 101500 28760 28280 26270 36300 128800 13910 53450 2974 24360 19770 23990 120500 18380 160300 99600 13970 34890 109100 43570 33440 35230 23770 22650 75120 16180 54080 95560 81170 28350 97600 30490 39960 106000 33180 21130 32150 30200 29340 41530 30760 24590 24320 27810 89040 35500 53160 27020 37100 11760 41240 87000 38550 23930 32200 33640 42190 27960 25750 36280 90450 36210 27400 19240 22300 61270 35300 174200 36090 21540 32600 26090 78880 38500 24630 79890 43070 22200 54940 26310 73380 28440 44280 71800 26560 30920 24020 31820 79880 42460 32020 25050 40220 89620 31800 36020 85020 45650 26840 20260 36340 13630 31460 63300 38750 30280 35110 79320 50470 124100 53150 98730 39090 243400 111100 24340 83360 29690 28360 45890 156100 68560 48360 16140 15600 176500 32780 81250 13920 26490 18230 62130 18350 22180 40770 51320 40310 48010 23950 84300 22540 18150 17570 40520 38580 33430 94000 35940 98150 41100 60040 33280 22010 27400 46140 34840 29110 102600 45200 18360 53760 66790 18740 29520 70310 90340 36540 98880 40700 17930 73270 2802 44430 23740 28680 32080 65340 71450 59360 24290 46040 49520 91470 42690 25270 44550 51550 66270 18910 56010 12970 71130 24380 22210 20740 82780 33510 24460 35080 29820 9778 11570 87000 102100 26070 21260 30440 85190 25250 32700 164500 3364 78050 47240 63880 34090 25810 20180 40810 30880 79490 18640 23170 37160 22800 92020 31890 25190 36530 34360 36980 31890 49040 69560 52090 89800 30840 43750 58950 38500 26200 25280 22590 90600 64410 77150 32910 27200 87500 26090 62770 41230 64730 61400 72960 23940 24660 30100 54200 36500 33240 23260 36370 27790 55630 36340 34500 25010 14360 95030 74710 30730 24160 33590 34070 105000 84190 79910 100500 66770 40030 31020 33700 37380 22630 33510 38910 11130 25350 33610 23980 49000 27340 40490 58590 105500 118600 31820 43090 96590 30850 48800 80350 28100 28090 35180 31150 49840 31330 26250 54200
2022-02-20 51110 52720 15880 26580 34130 24720 45630 44960 15560 73210 39960 37050 35630 56100 20550 64180 110800 79930 21180 57220 47780 34530 49520 54530 111600 72090 316200 31470 52400 43240 19370 23030 87100 17990 111100 35480 158100 41400 30900 92550 22880 38390 79800 141000 31950 93540 28870 28500 31990 30360 59720 48080 60160 34580 61220 30190 38410 95070 30440 44300 26600 39880 82100 11470 53550 52420 29290 43130 107900 101800 28840 28370 26380 36370 129600 13970 53570 2993 24420 19820 24040 121100 18490 160700 99700 14000 35030 109300 43690 33520 35290 23860 22680 75330 16270 54240 95770 81410 28460 97840 30640 40190 106200 33310 21220 32260 30340 29480 41660 30840 24720 24380 27930 89330 35590 53400 27080 37230 11780 41350 87120 38630 24010 32320 33810 42390 28060 25850 36450 90920 36260 27490 19330 22340 61420 35370 174700 36260 21590 32690 26190 78990 38670 24660 80200 43150 22270 54950 26380 73510 28510 44460 72000 26700 30980 24110 31940 80000 42650 32110 25110 40480 89850 31830 36270 85230 45810 26870 20340 36480 13650 31590 63440 38860 30380 35270 79570 50580 124300 53220 99010 39170 243800 111300 24430 83530 29780 28430 46240 156400 68720 48530 16180 15640 176900 32850 81420 13970 26630 18250 62210 18460 22300 40930 51580 40540 48100 24090 84520 22620 18180 17670 40630 38750 33520 94170 36040 98330 41170 60280 33400 22110 27470 46260 34950 29200 103000 45320 18450 53990 66930 18790 29590 70590 90530 36700 99050 40790 17970 73360 2843 44600 23810 28730 32270 65530 71760 59520 24350 46130 49690 91610 42760 25350 44690 51690 66340 18940 56140 13000 71220 24460 22240 20840 82920 33610 24570 35190 29950 9829 11620 87110 102300 26150 21380 30570 85350 25310 32830 164900 3439 78300 47370 64050 34250 25920 20240 40960 30970 79810 18720 23250 37290 22820 92350 32000 25290 36680 34420 37140 31960 49170 69820 52220 90030 30920 43900 59050 38610 26310 25360 22720 90740 64520 77330 33050 27340 87680 26190 62910 41360 64840 61640 73080 24000 24730 30230 54360 36590 33380 23400 36490 27890 55710 36460 34640 25070 14410 95280 74800 30850 24230 33590 34200 105200 84370 80060 100700 66900 40190 31110 33840 37520 22710 33570 39040 11190 25410 33670 24050 49250 27450 40680 58740 105700 119100 31930 43250 96830 30960 48990 80510 28210 28270 35230 31340 50000 31440 26330 54370
2022-02-21 51450 53100 15970 26620 34210 24890 45810 45300 15660 73560 40150 37130 35770 56290 20630 64330 111100 80060 21220 57370 47990 34630 49670 54670 112200 72250 317100 31540 52460 43320 19410 23120 87230 18050 111500 35600 158400 41530 31010 92810 22940 38410 80050 141500 32090 93860 28940 28590 32070 30400 59820 48140 60310 34750 61420 30260 38560 95260 30520 44410 26670 40040 82370 11500 53670 52570 29410 43300 108200 102000 28910 28460 26490 36490 130400 14040 53690 3012 24480 19880 24100 121600 18580 161000 100100 14040 35160 109700 43820 33610 35380 23950 22730 75550 16360 54400 95970 81650 28580 98060 30800 40410 106400 33440 21310 32360 30470 29620 41810 30930 24850 24440 28060 89630 35680 53630 27140 37370 11800 41490 87320 38740 24080 32440 33970 42600 28170 25950 36620 91400 36340 27640 19420 22390 61560 35470 175300 36430 21640 32770 26290 79120 38850 24710 80490 43220 22350 55070 26450 73680 28590 44630 72190 26830 31030 24210 32050 80190 42820 32210 25170 40750 90070 31860 36520 85430 45980 26900 20430 36620 13690 31790 63660 38970 30480 35420 79840 50740 124600 53290 99400 39320 244500 111500 24520 83760 29850 28500 46590 156800 68870 48710 16230 15680 177300 32930 81660 14020 26760 18260 62470 18560 22420 41080 51820 40770 48190 24230 84830 22700 18230 17770 40740 38910 33610 94520 36170 98500 41230 60510 33530 22190 27540 46370 35070 29300 103300 45440 18540 54210 67070 18830 29670 70870 90870 36850 99250 40870 18000 73540 2884 44820 23870 28780 32470 65770 72080 59670 24410 46210 49920 91790 42820 25440 44860 51910 66400 18970 56260 13030 71380 24540 22270 20940 83110 33700 24670 35300 30080 9878 11670 87340 102500 26230 21510 30700 85500 25380 32950 165200 3516 78550 47500 64210 34400 26030 20310 41120 31060 80130 18810 23350 37420 22870 92690 32110 25400 36830 34480 37310 32040 49290 70080 52360 90380 31010 44050 59150 38720 26400 25450 22850 90920 64630 77570 33190 27480 87840 26280 63100 41480 64980 61880 73200 24060 24800 30360 54510 36680 33510 23530 36610 27990 55870 36610 34810 25120 14450 95620 75000 30970 24320 33640 34330 105400 84560 80270 101000 67070 40340 31200 33990 37670 22800 33660 39170 11250 25500 33760 24130 49510 27570 40920 58970 105900 119500 32050 43410 97060 31070 49180 80680 28320 28450 35290 31510 50160 31540 26460 54530
2022-02-22 51790 53490 16060 26660 34280 25060 45980 45610 15760 73900 40330 37210 35900 56480 20710 64400 111400 80180 21260 57470 48190 34720 49820 54800 112900 72370 317500 31600 52520 43390 19440 23150 87360 18110 111900 35720 158700 41650 31110 93000 22990 38430 80250 141900 32210 94090 29010 28640 32150 30430 59900 48200 60400 34910 61600 30320 38700 95420 30590 44500 26710 40210 82630 11530 53770 52700 29530 43470 108500 102300 28990 28540 26600 36550 131100 14100 53810 3032 24530 19930 24160 122100 18670 161400 100300 14070 35290 109900 43940 33690 35450 24040 22760 75750 16430 54560 96150 81890 28680 98270 30950 40640 106700 33580 21400 32460 30610 29750 41910 31010 24970 24500 28180 89830 35770 53850 27200 37500 11820 41590 87460 38820 24140 32550 34120 42810 28270 26050 36780 91880 36390 27730 19510 22430 61690 35530 176100 36590 21680 32850 26380 79200 39020 24760 80770 43300 22420 55110 26510 73810 28660 44790 72370 26950 31070 24290 32160 80280 42990 32300 25230 41030 90280 31900 36750 85610 46130 26930 20520 36750 13710 31940 63860 39070 30580 35570 80030 50850 124800 53370 99740 39390 244900 111700 24610 83910 29910 28570 46900 157100 69010 48870 16280 15730 177500 32980 81830 14060 26880 18280 62600 18660 22540 41230 52040 40990 48270 24370 85020 22770 18270 17880 40840 39080 33690 94690 36260 98670 41290 60740 33670 22280 27610 46480 35180 29380 103700 45550 18630 54430 67200 18860 29740 71140 91040 37010 99360 40950 18030 73600 2927 45000 23920 28820 32670 65920 72380 59820 24470 46290 50090 91910 42880 25520 44990 52120 66470 19000 56380 13050 71470 24610 22300 21040 83240 33790 24760 35400 30210 9921 11720 87470 102700 26300 21630 30830 85650 25440 33070 165600 3592 78790 47620 64370 34550 26140 20370 41270 31150 80440 18890 23440 37540 22890 93030 32220 25500 36970 34530 37480 32120 49400 70330 52480 90670 31080 44190 59240 38830 26480 25520 22980 91050 64730 77720 33330 27610 88010 26360 63240 41600 65080 62100 73310 24100 24870 30480 54650 36770 33630 23660 36720 28090 55970 36740 34950 25170 14500 95870 75110 31080 24390 33660 34460 105600 84720 80420 101200 67190 40480 31290 34130 37810 22870 33710 39300 11310 25610 33810 24200 49760 27690 41100 59130 106100 120000 32160 43570 97290 31170 49350 80830 28430 28610 35320 31670 50310 31620 26530 54680
2022-02-23 52130 53880 16140 26700 34350 25230 46160 45910 15870 74230 40520 37280 36020 56660 20790 64490 111700 80300 21300 57600 48390 34800 49970 54930 113400 72500 318000 31660 52570 43460 19470 23190 87480 18160 112300 35840 158900 41780 31210 93160 23040 38450 80660 142400 32340 94350 29080 28700 32220 30460 59990 48260 60490 35090 61790 30380 38840 95570 30660 44590 26760 40380 82890 11560 53870 52840 29650 43630 108700 102500 29060 28620 26700 36620 131900 14160 53930 3052 24570 19980 24210 122700 18760 161700 100600 14100 35420 110100 44060 33760 35530 24120 22780 75950 16500 54730 96320 82120 28790 98480 31100 40860 106900 33720 21480 32560 30750 29880 42020 31090 25100 24560 28310 90050 35850 54080 27260 37630 11840 41720 87620 38910 24210 32650 34280 43030 28370 26140 36940 92360 36440 27830 19590 22470 61820 35630 176900 36750 21730 32930 26470 79370 39180 24800 81030 43370 22480 55260 26580 73970 28720 44950 72540 27070 31120 24380 32260 80410 43150 32390 25290 41310 90480 31930 36970 85790 46270 26960 20610 36880 13730 32100 64060 39190 30670 35710 80230 51030 125100 53440 99950 39470 245400 111900 24700 84120 29980 28630 47210 157400 69150 49040 16330 15840 177800 33050 82000 14110 27000 18290 62780 18760 22660 41390 52250 41210 48350 24510 85250 22840 18300 17980 40940 39250 33780 94900 36340 98830 41350 60970 33800 22360 27670 46580 35290 29470 104100 45660 18710 54650 67330 18900 29800 71400 91250 37160 99540 41030 18060 73670 2971 45170 23970 28870 32860 66110 72670 59970 24520 46360 50240 92040 42940 25610 45130 52350 66530 19030 56500 13080 71560 24680 22330 21140 83380 33880 24860 35500 30330 9962 11760 87590 102800 26370 21760 30960 85800 25510 33190 165900 3670 79030 47730 64520 34700 26250 20430 41420 31230 80740 18970 23540 37660 22970 93380 32330 25600 37110 34580 37650 32190 49510 70570 52610 90940 31160 44330 59340 38940 26560 25600 23120 91180 64830 77900 33470 27740 88170 26440 63410 41720 65150 62320 73420 24160 24940 30610 54790 36860 33760 23790 36830 28170 56090 36860 35100 25220 14550 96110 75220 31190 24460 33710 34580 105800 84890 80620 101600 67310 40620 31370 34270 37950 22960 33830 39430 11360 25710 33880 24260 50020 27800 41290 59290 106200 120500 32270 43720 97510 31280 49520 80980 28530 28770 35350 31820 50460 31700 26610 54830

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-17 to 2022-02-23

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-02-16 49786 51253 15464 26417 33811 24094 44932 43341 15261 71681 39171 36689 35073 55283 20194 63605 109385 79379 21014 56640 46883 34112 48890 53897 108521 71435 314086 31171 52109 42902 19170 22809 86480 17733 109310 34932 156919 40850 30467 91369 22699 38271 79136 138943 31400 92458 28541 28303 31656 30205 59314 47803 59705 34050 60522 29919 37793 94580 30124 43838 26352 39209 80911 11360 53072 51777 28814 42405 106659 100705 28510 28005 25895 36104 126428 13725 53109 2919 24141 19588 23804 118633 18030 158962 98854 13887 34451 108322 43212 33131 35003 23481 22451 74396 15864 53622 94854 80457 27980 96824 30038 39262 105148 32823 20843 31840 29814 28894 41158 30475 24226 24106 27460 88302 35200 52431 26805 36658 11704 40915 86459 38307 23693 31753 33129 41612 27616 25401 35693 89077 35884 27087 18939 22151 60928 35115 172466 35543 21395 32304 25782 78536 37943 24429 78814 42826 21975 54728 26082 72867 28188 43732 71132 26128 30750 23730 31465 79429 41866 31701 24853 39484 88859 31698 35157 84305 45130 26727 20023 35899 13501 30904 62827 38122 29944 34609 78714 50143 123194 52915 97383 38815 241697 110446 24051 82783 29566 28128 44640 155051 68012 47808 15999 15437 175294 32519 80542 13761 26025 18179 61618 17970 21805 40267 50430 39539 47717 23525 83476 22279 17988 17306 40098 38051 33149 93368 35574 97578 40870 59296 32911 21721 27170 45771 34473 28810 101544 44803 18071 53034 66355 18595 29270 69385 89726 36037 98336 40406 17812 73060 2689 43795 23508 28478 31502 64582 70442 58857 24045 45754 48917 90885 42461 24993 44110 51013 66060 18819 55637 12877 70777 24102 22093 20418 82279 33194 24123 34740 29382 9596 11399 86629 101505 25832 20901 30018 84685 25032 32287 163266 3143 77264 46790 63340 33609 25492 19976 40352 30588 78426 18358 22869 36721 22668 91046 31568 24854 36060 34160 36475 31641 48595 68689 51685 88642 30540 43260 58623 38148 25820 25024 22203 90028 64036 76562 32439 26766 86942 25787 62214 40822 64382 60648 72542 23730 24445 29697 53696 36229 32825 22802 35999 27458 55369 35891 34044 24801 14200 93770 74326 30357 23928 33514 33639 104398 83563 79344 99841 66418 39547 30710 33231 36924 22372 33302 38520 10918 25117 33382 23736 48268 26968 39871 58082 104961 117046 31452 42556 95862 30520 48181 79788 27750 27452 35022 30507 49304 30937 26017 53664
2022-02-17 50030 51630 15500 26500 33920 24190 45170 43660 15330 71850 39330 36780 35190 55480 20270 63770 109600 79590 21070 56790 47060 34180 49070 54010 109100 71650 314700 31230 52230 43030 19200 22870 86760 17750 109600 35040 157200 41000 30630 91700 22750 38310 79610 139400 31540 92660 28630 28390 31700 30270 59520 47850 59870 34150 60740 29990 37860 94740 30210 43880 26420 39380 81080 11390 53190 51910 28920 42630 106900 100900 28600 28110 25990 36180 127100 13770 53290 2938 24180 19650 23880 119000 18120 159300 99400 13930 34550 108600 43280 33190 35080 23580 22480 74600 15920 53810 95080 80820 28080 97070 30230 39680 105400 32950 20920 31950 29880 29040 41320 30550 24360 24190 27550 88370 35240 52770 26980 36770 11740 40980 86650 38410 23750 31910 33250 41950 27680 25400 35850 89800 35960 27190 19010 22200 60990 35190 173300 35760 21470 32470 25950 78740 38020 24470 79030 42940 22010 54820 26160 73040 28260 43880 71360 26220 30820 23810 31560 79590 41980 31780 24910 40020 89070 31800 35340 84430 45460 26780 20110 36010 13530 31020 63010 38240 30060 34660 78950 50240 123500 53000 97720 38850 242300 110800 24150 83090 29620 28180 44920 155500 68270 48010 16050 15520 175700 32610 80710 13820 26140 18200 61970 18040 21920 40400 50650 39730 47840 23620 83670 22350 18010 17440 40150 38110 33230 93640 35840 97860 40910 59540 33070 21750 27260 45830 34650 28860 101900 44910 18140 53170 66540 18650 29330 69650 90000 36250 98500 40440 17860 73150 2741 43930 23540 28520 31660 64980 70590 59090 24090 45810 49110 91140 42550 25090 44250 51210 66120 18860 55830 12900 70940 24170 22150 20470 82450 33430 24200 34830 29500 9601 11440 86830 101700 25890 21040 30120 85030 25200 32390 163600 3215 77440 46900 63480 33660 25590 20030 40500 30680 78580 18410 22940 36990 22760 91480 31690 24940 36210 34250 36670 31680 48700 68900 51850 88940 30630 43390 58760 38240 25870 25080 22350 90270 64230 76800 32580 26910 87070 25890 62410 40920 64450 60790 72640 23780 24500 29940 53810 36310 32920 22920 36140 27540 55510 36020 34150 24830 14260 94060 74560 30460 24000 33570 33740 104600 83730 79490 100200 66560 39660 30770 33360 37050 22450 33360 38660 10970 25260 33450 23810 48530 27060 40040 58270 105200 117800 31580 42730 96140 30560 48330 80090 27830 27660 35060 30580 49490 31010 26100 53780
2022-02-18 50330 51980 15610 26590 34040 24370 45400 43990 15390 72260 39490 36900 35330 55670 20350 63960 109900 79800 21120 57000 47350 34320 49340 54180 109800 71850 315700 31320 52380 43170 19230 22930 87000 17810 109900 35190 157600 41170 30760 91990 22800 38340 79970 139900 31680 92970 28740 28450 31790 30350 59680 47890 60020 34280 60960 30090 38010 94870 30320 43950 26480 39550 81510 11420 53320 52090 29080 42850 107400 101200 28690 28300 26090 36270 127600 13820 53550 2955 24230 19720 24020 119500 18220 160000 99700 13960 34690 108900 43370 33320 35180 23660 22520 74850 15980 53960 95480 81150 28180 97320 30370 39910 105700 33050 21000 32110 29950 29170 41430 30650 24440 24290 27640 88800 35330 53140 27080 36950 11780 41120 86910 38510 23830 32030 33440 42110 27780 25500 36010 90260 36040 27290 19100 22250 61200 35300 173900 36000 21560 32590 26060 78950 38170 24520 79280 43150 22090 55040 26230 73250 28340 44040 71570 26350 30930 23940 31650 79780 42170 31890 24970 40280 89510 31910 35580 84820 45620 26850 20190 36150 13550 31150 63210 38360 30190 34790 79170 50380 123900 53130 98040 38930 243100 111100 24260 83360 29700 28250 45220 155900 68600 48190 16090 15610 176100 32690 80950 13870 26270 18220 62230 18110 22060 40580 50870 39940 48000 23740 83990 22440 18040 17510 40210 38220 33330 93860 35960 98130 40950 59760 33170 21840 27340 45940 34790 28960 102300 45050 18230 53420 66730 18710 29430 69960 90320 36420 98800 40600 17910 73290 2789 44090 23590 28590 31880 65340 70980 59320 24140 45950 49360 91400 42660 25190 44410 51350 66180 18910 56150 12940 71100 24240 22210 20580 82750 33590 24300 34930 29650 9647 11480 87060 102100 25970 21130 30270 85300 25280 32500 164000 3294 77780 47050 63720 33820 25690 20100 40720 30780 78880 18510 23090 37150 22820 91790 31830 25050 36380 34350 36870 31770 48820 69180 51980 89200 30730 43580 58870 38350 25960 25140 22460 90510 64450 77200 32730 27060 87290 26010 62620 41070 64510 61100 72880 23840 24600 30100 54000 36450 33030 23070 36250 27640 55650 36140 34270 24860 14310 94390 74770 30560 24080 33620 33910 104800 83980 79810 100700 66730 39790 30930 33500 37190 22530 33470 38910 11020 25360 33550 23900 48750 27170 40220 58440 105500 118300 31720 42940 96640 30680 48530 80330 27930 27830 35100 30730 49770 31110 26190 53940
2022-02-19 50660 52300 15700 26680 34140 24510 45620 44270 15430 72630 39720 37010 35460 55820 20420 64090 110100 80000 21170 57220 47600 34470 49580 54320 110500 72020 316500 31390 52510 43290 19260 22990 87280 17860 110400 35310 158000 41390 30900 92280 22850 38360 80250 140400 31810 93210 28830 28510 31910 30410 59780 47930 60150 34370 61150 30180 38120 94940 30410 43990 26530 39710 81720 11440 53450 52340 29240 42990 107600 101500 28770 28400 26170 36340 128200 13860 53750 2975 24270 19780 24140 120000 18310 160500 100000 14000 34810 109100 43520 33410 35270 23740 22530 75080 16040 54120 95760 81620 28250 97510 30500 40090 106000 33150 21110 32250 30030 29340 41530 30730 24530 24380 27730 88990 35480 53400 27240 37110 11810 41310 87110 38590 23900 32160 33560 42310 27860 25610 36150 90590 36100 27390 19190 22300 61290 35400 174300 36210 21650 32680 26150 79130 38340 24560 79510 43290 22150 55150 26310 73440 28440 44240 71910 26470 31020 24040 31800 79990 42340 31970 25030 40500 89800 32010 35790 85110 45750 26910 20250 36260 13560 31230 63390 38450 30290 34880 79370 50550 124200 53250 98310 39000 243700 111300 24360 83590 29820 28340 45490 156200 68800 48380 16130 15680 176400 32750 81140 13920 26380 18240 62390 18190 22160 40740 51080 40130 48140 23850 84230 22530 18060 17620 40260 38340 33410 94000 36060 98350 40980 59980 33310 21950 27420 46030 34910 29020 102600 45160 18320 53680 66880 18770 29500 70220 90560 36580 99100 40740 17970 73410 2834 44220 23620 28650 32070 65720 71350 59540 24190 46080 49570 91620 42750 25280 44550 51480 66240 18950 56330 12970 71250 24310 22250 20650 83030 33720 24390 35020 29770 9685 11520 87260 102300 26040 21270 30440 85510 25370 32620 164600 3369 78030 47160 63930 33940 25780 20160 40910 30860 79150 18610 23160 37270 22890 92020 31950 25150 36530 34430 37060 31850 49000 69430 52150 89440 30860 43720 58980 38430 26020 25200 22540 90730 64650 77370 32860 27190 87540 26110 62790 41200 64550 61340 73010 23890 24670 30240 54170 36560 33170 23210 36330 27720 55750 36260 34370 24890 14360 94660 74910 30670 24140 33650 34020 105000 84180 79980 101100 66860 39980 31010 33680 37330 22590 33550 39080 11070 25420 33630 23980 48950 27250 40370 58580 105700 118900 31820 43080 96890 30810 48730 80560 28020 27960 35120 30830 49950 31220 26270 54060
2022-02-20 51220 52880 15740 26750 34260 24720 45840 44570 15480 72910 39880 37110 35560 55940 20500 64200 110400 80150 21220 57310 47770 34570 49800 54520 111100 72180 317200 31470 52600 43380 19290 23030 87450 17890 111000 35430 158400 41520 30980 92480 22900 38390 80530 140800 31940 93410 28910 28570 31970 30470 59910 47970 60240 34530 61330 30250 38300 95040 30500 44060 26590 39880 81900 11460 53530 52480 29370 43130 108000 101700 28850 28520 26260 36390 129000 13950 53900 2994 24300 19830 24210 120400 18390 161100 100200 14030 34930 109300 43660 33490 35360 23830 22550 75260 16090 54270 95990 81930 28350 97890 30740 40430 106200 33300 21200 32360 30150 29460 41670 30820 24710 24460 27890 89180 35540 53560 27330 37220 11850 41400 87290 38690 23950 32230 33670 42610 27980 25670 36290 91400 36170 27480 19270 22350 61460 35480 175200 36320 21730 32760 26290 79280 38430 24580 79720 43400 22220 55210 26380 73610 28500 44410 72110 26590 31100 24130 31900 80100 42490 32050 25070 40980 90050 32090 35990 85430 46020 26960 20370 36370 13580 31410 63570 38540 30380 35030 79540 50630 124400 53330 98600 39070 244100 111500 24440 83800 29880 28380 45770 156500 69010 48490 16170 15750 176800 32830 81290 13960 26490 18250 62470 18250 22290 40890 51270 40320 48270 24020 84490 22620 18090 17830 40300 38500 33490 94320 36130 98560 41010 60190 33540 22040 27490 46090 35000 29080 103100 45250 18380 53840 67110 18830 29560 70470 90770 36740 99200 40820 18000 73510 2884 44400 23650 28710 32400 65950 71680 59770 24240 46160 49690 91820 42830 25380 44680 51680 66300 18990 56540 13000 71380 24370 22290 20710 83210 33850 24470 35080 29890 9713 11570 87390 102400 26100 21470 30560 85680 25460 32730 165000 3473 78240 47260 64090 34040 25910 20220 41080 30950 79340 18670 23230 37370 22940 92580 32080 25250 36690 34490 37260 31920 49090 69670 52290 89660 30960 43850 59100 38540 26100 25250 22670 90900 64830 77560 33000 27330 87670 26210 62950 41320 64610 61580 73120 23940 24730 30330 54330 36660 33240 23350 36460 27810 55810 36380 34500 24920 14420 94910 75030 30790 24210 33690 34100 105200 84410 80140 101400 67010 40110 31090 33820 37450 22670 33640 39180 11120 25530 33710 24050 49300 27340 40610 58700 105900 119300 31980 43210 97150 30880 48930 80720 28090 28100 35150 30910 50100 31300 26350 54160
2022-02-21 51410 53370 15860 26830 34370 25040 46060 44910 15550 73590 40050 37190 35620 56160 20570 64280 110900 80330 21280 57450 47870 34630 50000 54660 111600 72270 317700 31520 52670 43550 19310 23140 87570 17970 111300 35510 158600 41650 31240 92690 22940 38430 80830 141100 32070 93560 29000 28660 32080 30530 59970 48010 60390 34640 61500 30320 38380 95210 30580 44200 26640 40040 82170 11490 53720 52610 29520 43440 108300 102000 28940 28590 26350 36470 129800 14030 54130 3015 24360 19890 24270 121100 18480 161200 100700 14060 35020 109600 43850 33630 35430 23890 22590 75680 16140 54420 96160 82230 28520 98010 30840 40650 106300 33460 21290 32640 30410 29560 41760 30890 24790 24550 28030 89340 35670 53990 27410 37290 11880 41630 87440 38750 24110 32410 33850 42760 28040 25840 36430 91830 36230 27580 19350 22380 61590 35580 175900 36570 21820 32840 26350 79390 38660 24640 79950 43470 22250 55440 26460 73710 28530 44550 72250 26690 31140 24200 32020 80240 42690 32120 25170 41280 90220 32180 36210 85580 46130 27010 20470 36430 13610 31590 63770 38650 30510 35240 79750 50910 124700 53460 98880 39240 245100 111700 24550 84000 30050 28470 46050 156700 69100 48710 16210 15830 177000 32980 81520 14010 26610 18270 62850 18410 22370 41040 51470 40510 48400 24150 84620 22690 18140 17920 40350 38730 33580 94490 36300 98750 41040 60400 33660 22110 27590 46190 35210 29160 103500 45400 18540 54310 67300 18870 29660 70670 91000 36890 99400 41120 18080 73710 2932 44590 23720 28740 32580 66050 71900 59960 24300 46340 49910 91920 42910 25460 44810 51970 66350 19030 56670 13080 71520 24440 22350 20870 83280 33930 24550 35230 29940 9796 11620 87510 102600 26170 21570 30650 85810 25530 32820 165100 3562 78490 47450 64190 34360 26040 20280 41230 31020 79700 18830 23270 37510 22980 92890 32200 25330 36860 34570 37450 31960 49150 69910 52330 89950 31020 43970 59210 38650 26260 25360 22870 91040 64990 77640 33090 27460 87890 26320 63140 41430 64700 61820 73190 23980 24770 30590 54440 36740 33400 23470 36660 27890 55980 36520 34570 24940 14480 95150 75190 30910 24280 33760 34260 105700 84510 80300 101800 67170 40250 31170 34010 37690 22720 33710 39480 11170 25660 33770 24140 49530 27460 40790 58900 106100 120500 32090 43330 97340 31050 49070 81060 28220 28220 35200 31100 50190 31390 26450 54410
2022-02-22 51730 53810 15980 26910 34430 25150 46280 45200 15680 74210 40260 37290 35880 56610 20680 64500 111400 80490 21320 57650 48230 34770 50290 54940 112200 72610 319000 31650 52730 43630 19340 23220 87710 18090 111700 35690 159300 41750 31520 93090 23030 38460 81240 141800 32210 94050 29110 28730 32270 30580 60190 48050 60580 34980 61810 30400 38780 95370 30670 44290 26740 40210 82760 11520 53990 52800 29730 43710 108700 102600 29010 28840 26510 36610 130600 14070 54280 3035 24410 19950 24370 121800 18560 162100 101200 14090 35240 110200 44110 33770 35580 24020 22640 75930 16210 54590 96340 82500 28730 98420 31020 40880 106900 33640 21420 32860 30630 29750 41940 31030 24860 24640 28130 89850 35870 54200 27530 37540 11910 41830 87710 38890 24270 32580 34070 43070 28210 26090 36560 92150 36290 27730 19480 22470 62150 35730 176300 36950 21890 33000 26580 79800 39010 24700 80330 43580 22410 55680 26530 74080 28710 44750 72580 26870 31320 24340 32190 80570 42970 32280 25290 41550 90610 32260 36450 85890 46350 27060 20580 36710 13650 31770 64100 38790 30690 35500 80210 51200 125300 53630 99340 39490 245800 112200 24700 84270 30130 28610 46380 157200 69500 49050 16290 15940 177700 33100 82090 14050 26720 18280 63390 18520 22620 41230 51670 40710 48520 24340 85190 22820 18180 18020 40400 39000 33730 94820 36570 99170 41070 60610 33730 22300 27670 46470 35460 29380 103800 45630 18640 54540 67480 18910 29800 71070 91370 37120 99800 41280 18140 73890 2981 44900 23790 28830 32700 66450 72650 60140 24350 46530 50240 92250 42990 25530 45020 52210 66410 19070 56920 13190 71650 24550 22400 21090 83600 34100 24690 35530 30260 9851 11670 87780 103000 26290 21650 30800 86080 25600 32980 165900 3692 78870 47820 64430 34710 26160 20380 41470 31170 80340 18920 23430 37820 23060 93130 32420 25480 37010 34690 37640 32120 49400 70320 52600 90390 31130 44160 59400 38830 26330 25530 23070 91410 65150 77960 33370 27590 88350 26420 63450 41610 64790 62280 73530 24070 24940 30900 54680 36880 33580 23650 36970 28040 56270 36730 34880 24970 14530 95500 75430 31060 24400 33810 34520 105900 84820 80630 102300 67440 40470 31320 34230 37930 22870 33890 39730 11220 25750 33920 24220 49800 27680 41070 59190 106400 121200 32190 43540 97580 31300 49360 81280 28380 28530 35230 31360 50430 31470 26530 54860
2022-02-23 52120 54250 16140 26980 34550 25390 46490 45470 15800 74640 40400 37370 36120 56970 20760 64630 111800 80650 21370 57770 48400 34830 50500 55110 112800 72780 319600 31730 52830 43790 19360 23280 87840 18170 112200 35820 159600 41840 31630 93300 23080 38490 81790 142500 32340 94520 29200 28800 32360 30640 60280 48090 60770 35190 62060 30480 38990 95520 30750 44380 26790 40380 83080 11550 54090 53080 29880 43930 109000 103000 29080 29000 26610 36690 131500 14130 54710 3056 24460 20000 24440 122800 18640 162400 101500 14120 35370 110600 44310 33980 35680 24110 22670 76330 16260 54750 96510 82990 28880 98630 31270 41000 107400 33800 21490 33160 30760 29850 42080 31120 24970 24730 28310 90280 36020 54560 27670 37660 11940 42070 88160 38980 24340 32660 34240 43290 28390 26260 36690 92560 36350 27830 19580 22510 62390 35850 177000 37080 22010 33080 26680 80110 39340 24750 80600 43670 22550 55910 26590 74330 28790 45020 72770 27010 31390 24420 32270 80840 43140 32360 25380 41700 90840 32340 36790 86220 46470 27110 20690 36920 13670 32050 64360 38980 30800 35750 80540 51430 125600 53820 99630 39640 246900 112500 24790 84620 30260 28750 46640 157800 69660 49280 16350 16020 178200 33210 82370 14090 26830 18300 63660 18610 22750 41490 51860 40900 48650 24500 85570 22910 18220 18100 40440 39300 33790 95130 36690 99400 41110 60820 33860 22400 27740 46640 35600 29560 104200 45810 18730 54950 67650 18960 29890 71360 91880 37270 100100 41540 18170 74100 3034 45080 23850 28890 32890 66590 73130 60300 24400 46670 50400 92430 43080 25610 45260 52430 66470 19110 57100 13250 71770 24620 22450 21210 83750 34210 24800 35650 30400 9936 11700 88030 103100 26350 21770 30880 86270 25660 33100 166200 3761 79210 48010 64730 34960 26270 20460 41840 31260 80840 18990 23570 37960 23180 93490 32570 25580 37170 34780 37840 32240 49520 70600 52740 90750 31290 44350 59520 38920 26390 25630 23210 91610 65310 78110 33510 27720 88680 26530 63660 41800 64870 62540 73680 24120 25130 31060 54890 37060 33780 23780 37080 28150 56410 36870 35060 25000 14570 96080 75570 31180 24490 33850 34670 106200 85090 80910 102800 67600 40590 31410 34380 38110 22960 34080 40080 11260 25850 33990 24290 50110 27810 41270 59410 106700 121700 32270 43680 97960 31480 49560 81460 28480 28710 35270 31660 50630 31540 26600 55060

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.