COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-02-22 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-02-22

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-02-22

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-272022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-02-062021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-02-062021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Peak daily increment 4121 5538 535 1116 1267 1651 823 437 838 1763 1361 1577 1257 2261 604 3456 4565 3923 988 2520 1693 1428 1666 2298 1294 3259 17461 1534 3248 2226 319 963 4661 623 4649 1424 8692 1536 944 4172 903 508 3173 6817 1112 3810 1176 1143 1293 1967 2924 611 2868 1137 2183 1282 1419 1131 1354 528 1204 456 3000 192 2413 2076 1024 1463 3899 4713 1162 961 942 1531 8352 767 1907 135 403 767 995 3924 506 7788 4300 549 1405 4972 1552 1551 1617 861 267 3406 481 896 4762 2311 1156 4683 2117 2094 4687 1933 668 1043 1496 911 1449 1098 1677 886 1623 3154 1556 1685 968 1282 413 1352 3632 1637 996 1205 1013 2389 908 924 560 6651 482 1024 785 885 2847 1505 6636 1498 842 1500 1131 3370 1236 323 3321 2099 816 2065 1106 3216 1186 1507 3093 853 1782 840 1207 4064 1693 1194 1029 2457 3908 1320 1144 3851 1491 1661 1014 1224 234 1000 2609 1037 1176 1261 3583 2004 6093 3327 4474 1730 10966 6219 806 3417 1174 1230 735 9091 3860 1962 583 532 10086 1519 3572 519 692 246 2529 487 664 1237 1060 672 2762 1442 3357 820 189 1586 532 1232 1338 4851 1510 5314 518 1196 1703 668 974 1950 1119 1059 3901 1812 514 1833 2903 832 1177 2987 3790 1401 5191 1786 839 4191 265 1569 291 1794 2373 3104 2638 2557 315 2431 2226 4491 2301 1049 1608 2098 1026 783 2064 511 3882 959 1240 761 4226 1345 869 1303 1212 247 348 4672 5825 946 1497 1063 4419 877 1170 8332 638 3212 2338 2842 1126 1559 763 1585 1235 2973 567 877 1483 758 4602 1072 869 1104 1602 1011 1368 2490 2925 2358 4009 1234 1563 2957 1767 1064 997 1356 3844 3584 3806 1025 931 4408 900 2621 1709 890 2291 3736 974 837 990 2548 1395 1050 809 1539 1011 2717 1233 1355 341 443 5264 3278 1028 874 422 1161 5020 4362 3756 4184 2985 1561 1291 1093 1170 828 1336 1044 237 1007 1619 907 2713 874 1429 1691 5785 3876 997 1541 4771 1313 1828 4153 1176 780 397 1044 2110 1419 1070 2043
Days since peak 16 16 29 29 29 16 29 57 16 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 56 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 56 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 56 29 29 29 29 29 56 29 55 29 55 29 55 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 16 16 29 16 56 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 55 29 29 55 29 29 29 29 16 16 29 16 29 29 16 29 29 29 16 29 16 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 16 29 29 55 16 56 29 29 29 29 29 16 29 29 29 29 29 29 56 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 16 29 29 29 29 29 29 16 29 56 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 57 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 16 29 29 56 16 55 29 29 29 29 29 57 29 16 29 29 29 29 29 16 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 16 29 56 29 16 29 29 29 54 29 29 29 29 29 29 16 57 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 16 29 29 29 29 29 16 29 29 29 29 16 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 16 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 16 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 55 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 55 29 29 29 29 29 56 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 16 29 29 16 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 56 29 29 29 29 29
Last total 51420 53177 15803 26702 34203 24841 46178 44729 15820 73058 39929 37051 35588 56074 20522 64075 110574 79958 21169 57208 47560 34437 49534 54586 111187 72055 316053 31458 52311 43249 19285 22983 86893 17964 110832 35396 157816 41379 31074 92280 22907 38479 80517 141005 32005 93607 28839 28603 32043 30361 59670 48003 60052 34723 61388 30121 38450 95321 30466 44197 26567 40201 81984 11486 53634 52443 29471 43163 109069 101976 28757 28547 26234 36350 129893 14079 53895 3090 24318 19801 24052 120475 18377 160081 99647 14020 34851 109525 43785 33345 35291 23825 22576 75143 16081 54693 95382 81760 28468 97459 30699 40203 106250 33448 21243 32538 30635 29332 41625 30869 24928 24471 28231 89221 35527 53337 27324 37158 11842 41608 87230 38646 24006 32040 33746 42646 28074 25889 36342 91322 36127 27523 19303 22311 61335 35493 176216 36129 21659 32618 26117 79365 38699 24552 79746 43152 22257 55362 26357 73705 28425 44341 71932 26617 30895 24268 31899 80070 42472 32102 25099 41507 89726 32001 35938 85121 45806 26853 20626 36387 13574 31569 63743 38638 30311 35337 79467 50778 123953 53274 98552 39226 243626 111132 24486 83756 29853 28434 46067 156192 68589 48493 16218 15732 176355 32800 81452 13931 26466 18246 62418 18327 22287 40962 51353 40532 47954 24203 84438 22674 18129 17946 40293 38810 33480 94094 35864 98376 41048 60420 33640 21968 27456 46152 35048 29197 103649 45193 18465 53937 67010 18742 29512 70400 90654 36836 99191 40743 17960 73341 3016 44482 23678 28587 32504 65378 71457 59654 24179 46083 49541 91594 42648 25257 44743 52284 66368 18932 56506 13028 71060 24402 22229 20843 82821 33584 24494 35139 29778 9750 11528 87122 101996 26122 21474 30591 85362 25280 32731 164652 3541 78247 47194 63914 34326 26145 20179 41134 30901 79612 18711 23200 37224 22921 93177 32247 25238 36642 34434 37301 31885 48904 69555 52307 89710 30950 43866 58976 38536 26056 25303 22811 90714 64367 77143 32960 27306 87509 26151 62948 41267 64772 61471 72940 23898 24736 30192 54200 36715 33313 23313 36541 27808 55836 36456 34543 24925 14377 94797 74835 30848 24266 33728 34189 105027 84054 80149 101292 66926 40105 31045 33886 37603 22667 33725 39253 11135 25735 33633 24010 49442 27431 40676 58890 105483 119089 31913 43097 96633 30881 48857 80243 28160 28078 35191 31037 49868 31214 26307 54375
Last daily increment 281 365 41 48 41 143 235 292 112 258 117 49 64 132 43 68 175 81 27 89 103 49 90 104 508 85 286 35 26 60 16 22 66 34 264 90 133 68 101 151 27 22 201 319 73 196 40 52 56 25 72 35 50 126 142 34 82 98 46 37 33 201 142 10 81 103 104 105 180 130 42 77 61 31 638 63 131 53 27 21 30 338 55 187 104 18 59 160 88 32 51 37 7 118 35 191 75 201 74 88 116 171 193 112 68 103 144 74 72 60 148 49 147 140 57 160 67 77 23 108 122 51 49 37 95 194 64 61 161 370 16 72 58 20 63 58 704 98 57 51 44 125 104 19 155 55 47 96 41 158 28 100 123 63 18 90 63 70 99 69 38 415 139 49 88 125 91 13 116 75 10 116 143 77 49 97 137 91 131 49 186 72 261 98 73 166 47 45 238 184 92 103 27 51 168 42 139 20 53 8 117 54 62 121 166 173 33 110 153 63 9 125 31 140 60 98 48 119 23 200 170 34 40 52 72 53 378 67 39 144 120 23 38 121 142 106 128 48 21 39 60 123 22 13 171 103 147 134 17 57 104 104 24 35 107 240 28 16 119 20 48 43 26 66 68 53 58 58 55 22 22 74 74 39 114 101 100 29 65 200 58 155 66 98 103 134 43 116 47 202 60 49 71 39 406 92 59 83 33 157 31 44 135 105 183 65 79 47 58 22 42 84 119 50 82 84 83 95 61 105 79 52 129 46 24 50 84 76 83 72 87 108 47 74 64 85 22 29 166 89 68 53 31 64 88 76 142 242 74 101 51 83 99 50 69 108 27 101 42 41 219 67 97 135 85 304 70 86 143 53 91 63 62 86 19 65 96 35 49 111
Last week 1634 1924 338 284 389 747 1246 1388 559 1377 755 360 508 789 325 451 1172 574 152 565 674 324 637 681 2666 612 1933 286 198 348 115 171 407 231 1515 460 888 522 601 903 207 208 1371 2043 598 1141 292 299 385 154 344 200 344 673 858 201 655 741 340 359 212 992 1065 126 558 663 653 756 1106 939 248 542 338 244 3465 354 783 171 177 211 246 1841 345 1114 781 128 398 1189 565 215 283 335 125 743 216 1071 523 1276 487 633 661 941 1082 625 400 693 821 435 462 389 702 359 771 910 323 896 505 494 135 689 762 335 313 286 612 1034 457 486 649 2245 243 434 364 161 407 377 3750 583 263 309 325 828 753 123 918 324 279 629 274 831 231 595 791 486 145 537 433 626 597 400 234 2023 864 302 773 812 673 125 603 485 73 655 901 504 368 718 746 629 744 356 1155 405 1882 679 434 965 284 305 1427 1117 574 677 220 291 1034 278 894 170 435 67 790 353 478 691 923 993 234 678 953 395 141 640 195 756 306 720 266 777 178 1124 729 247 286 380 572 387 2105 387 393 897 646 146 241 1010 920 793 850 331 148 279 327 682 170 108 1002 790 1010 791 134 329 622 693 187 261 629 1271 308 113 865 151 280 298 136 423 539 390 366 398 399 153 127 490 489 283 573 572 669 247 439 1367 398 970 402 565 717 653 203 777 311 1178 351 327 498 249 2131 676 384 580 273 822 240 307 864 620 1049 407 604 346 382 223 277 608 678 331 560 519 536 558 358 727 445 390 814 389 167 288 496 498 486 481 508 540 351 465 553 495 124 176 1002 498 487 336 214 549 627 491 784 1439 500 552 333 650 669 291 413 736 216 618 249 274 1174 458 794 790 518 2034 456 538 768 359 671 449 411 616 169 523 557 277 288 698
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-11-112021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-07-162021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-20 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-06-062021-07-162021-10-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-142021-10-192021-10-102021-08-052021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-10-18 --2021-07-142021-10-18 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012021-07-152021-11-03 --2021-07-14 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-242021-06-29 --2021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302021-06-05 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-07-142021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-06 --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-142021-07-122021-07-142021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-172021-07-14 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-10-142021-09-02 -- --2021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-14 --2021-07-152021-07-162021-07-15 --2021-07-112021-07-162021-07-152021-07-29 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-06-292021-08-182021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-15 --2021-11-092021-09-15 --2021-07-142021-07-112021-07-15 -- -- --2021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 -- --2021-08-302021-09-29 --2021-10-182021-07-122021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-08-032021-07-152021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-06-29 -- --2021-06-29 --2021-07-15 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192021-06-062021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-09-012021-08-17 -- --2021-07-162021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-17 -- --2021-10-042021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142021-07-13 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-182021-07-152021-06-29 --2021-08-172021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-08-192021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-07-172021-07-142021-07-152021-10-182021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-142021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-162021-07-08
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 260 276 70 139 152 144 287 379 176 943 127 159 126 202 293 107 478 103 176 68 218 621 4 258 94 72 97 74 160 249 177 72 159 115 101 227 67 170 203 269 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 142 21 114 708 607 376 53 101 229 122 140 92 86 64 202 400 269 137 188 133 135 183 122 100 65 157 15 61 22 105 58 110 128 185 88 171 421 67 56 82 274 123 941 95 63 113 163 229 84 156 152 61 65 146 54 151 87 82 90 203 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 247 316 301 117 707 51 213 80 99 120 41 47 448 96 169 40 164 72 72 101 274 115 49 78 184 116 384 105 164 123 94 256 621 176 291 228 77 96 322 87 264 158 255 143 118 343 297 114 289 268 40 140 67 213 75 73 49 116 70 253 94 78 123 96 482 169 277 202 118 49 345 86 85 470 128 68 77 92 106 303 200 152 243 70 131 87 77 91 243 339 240 201 428 57 145 101 329 218 85 143 137 116 92 150 92 78 105 131 134 106 226 286 64 79 352 157 313 195 144 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 99 63 117 120 74 138
Low between peaks 83 60 16 24 37 37 2 28 49 59 18 128 103 28 53 51 54 99 179 71 406 33 65 31 75 124 39 190 42 75 22 83 100 2 100 38 34 44 31 68 97 73 35 58 22 21 92 25 46 68 129 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 64 5 25 227 190 143 16 39 112 49 43 39 41 32 63 142 128 46 26 46 49 41 57 36 30 35 6 25 7 38 23 49 44 80 41 67 183 29 19 32 75 54 199 21 30 40 76 57 27 54 75 27 32 32 18 70 38 41 37 59 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 107 143 74 44 295 20 66 35 43 51 17 14 164 48 77 11 75 30 20 36 58 32 24 38 75 54 120 38 49 61 39 68 147 83 115 88 22 40 111 42 112 50 87 51 19 108 49 51 68 125 18 61 17 69 20 21 17 56 25 104 38 26 40 33 189 80 91 64 35 22 58 34 40 149 59 28 35 35 42 55 94 56 65 34 49 36 27 26 118 78 85 62 96 24 64 24 103 85 30 34 55 35 37 63 23 33 36 51 61 41 72 125 31 36 172 70 94 86 69 36 31 40 47 87 17 35 42 78 24 58 112 316 69 28 31 52 43 35 59

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-23 to 2022-03-01

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-02-22 51420 53177 15803 26702 34203 24841 46178 44729 15820 73058 39929 37051 35588 56074 20522 64075 110574 79958 21169 57208 47560 34437 49534 54586 111187 72055 316053 31458 52311 43249 19285 22983 86893 17964 110832 35396 157816 41379 31074 92280 22907 38479 80517 141005 32005 93607 28839 28603 32043 30361 59670 48003 60052 34723 61388 30121 38450 95321 30466 44197 26567 40201 81984 11486 53634 52443 29471 43163 109069 101976 28757 28547 26234 36350 129893 14079 53895 3090 24318 19801 24052 120475 18377 160081 99647 14020 34851 109525 43785 33345 35291 23825 22576 75143 16081 54693 95382 81760 28468 97459 30699 40203 106250 33448 21243 32538 30635 29332 41625 30869 24928 24471 28231 89221 35527 53337 27324 37158 11842 41608 87230 38646 24006 32040 33746 42646 28074 25889 36342 91322 36127 27523 19303 22311 61335 35493 176216 36129 21659 32618 26117 79365 38699 24552 79746 43152 22257 55362 26357 73705 28425 44341 71932 26617 30895 24268 31899 80070 42472 32102 25099 41507 89726 32001 35938 85121 45806 26853 20626 36387 13574 31569 63743 38638 30311 35337 79467 50778 123953 53274 98552 39226 243626 111132 24486 83756 29853 28434 46067 156192 68589 48493 16218 15732 176355 32800 81452 13931 26466 18246 62418 18327 22287 40962 51353 40532 47954 24203 84438 22674 18129 17946 40293 38810 33480 94094 35864 98376 41048 60420 33640 21968 27456 46152 35048 29197 103649 45193 18465 53937 67010 18742 29512 70400 90654 36836 99191 40743 17960 73341 3016 44482 23678 28587 32504 65378 71457 59654 24179 46083 49541 91594 42648 25257 44743 52284 66368 18932 56506 13028 71060 24402 22229 20843 82821 33584 24494 35139 29778 9750 11528 87122 101996 26122 21474 30591 85362 25280 32731 164652 3541 78247 47194 63914 34326 26145 20179 41134 30901 79612 18711 23200 37224 22921 93177 32247 25238 36642 34434 37301 31885 48904 69555 52307 89710 30950 43866 58976 38536 26056 25303 22811 90714 64367 77143 32960 27306 87509 26151 62948 41267 64772 61471 72940 23898 24736 30192 54200 36715 33313 23313 36541 27808 55836 36456 34543 24925 14377 94797 74835 30848 24266 33728 34189 105027 84054 80149 101292 66926 40105 31045 33886 37603 22667 33725 39253 11135 25735 33633 24010 49442 27431 40676 58890 105483 119089 31913 43097 96633 30881 48857 80243 28160 28078 35191 31037 49868 31214 26307 54375
2022-02-23 52740 54720 15870 26750 34260 25380 46390 44960 16040 73290 40050 37110 35700 56260 20580 64080 110800 80050 21200 57310 47660 34490 49650 54690 111600 72110 316500 31520 52360 43320 19310 23000 86970 17990 111100 35450 158000 41490 31180 92500 22960 38500 80820 141400 32110 93950 28910 28640 32130 30390 59740 48050 60140 34900 61550 30170 38560 95830 30550 44330 26610 40380 82110 11520 53740 52530 29570 43300 109300 102100 28820 28630 26270 36390 132900 14310 54010 3117 24350 19840 24100 120800 18430 160400 99800 14040 34920 109700 43870 33420 35340 23900 22600 75260 16120 54870 95480 81960 28550 97590 31410 41020 106400 34030 21320 32650 31030 29450 41700 30940 25430 24540 28650 89440 35590 53510 27400 37260 11860 41660 87410 38730 24070 32090 33860 43500 28150 25980 36500 93380 36140 27580 19370 22340 61410 35560 178200 36250 21710 32670 26180 79560 38970 24570 79890 43220 22310 55410 26420 73960 28460 44500 72100 26700 30930 24340 31980 80170 42550 32180 25140 41920 89810 32050 36070 85260 45940 26870 20910 36440 13590 31830 64160 38700 30380 35430 79660 50840 124100 53350 98730 39300 243900 111300 24560 84000 29890 28480 46280 156500 68680 48640 16260 15780 176600 32830 81560 13960 26530 18270 62650 18390 22370 41090 51490 40710 48020 24740 84590 22750 18200 18120 40360 38950 33540 94250 35930 98570 41080 60640 34180 21990 27530 46190 35140 29250 104900 45240 18540 54150 67150 18770 29530 70540 90740 36970 99300 40810 17990 73390 3063 44600 23720 28620 33190 65440 71630 59790 24210 46130 49660 91680 42690 25320 44840 52870 66450 18960 56650 13060 71120 24460 22260 20900 82920 33660 24550 35200 29860 9780 11550 87220 102100 26150 21910 30690 85510 25310 32780 164900 3620 78430 47300 64000 34460 26550 20230 41260 30960 79840 18780 23250 37290 22970 94550 32350 25320 36750 34480 37440 31950 48960 69710 52410 89940 31000 43990 59050 38630 26090 25420 23240 90770 64400 77350 33050 27420 87660 26220 63060 41320 64800 61600 73050 23940 24780 30290 54260 36790 33390 23400 36630 27880 55920 36620 34660 24940 14410 94950 74920 30900 24360 33800 34260 105100 84120 80300 101500 67010 40230 31100 33990 37710 22700 33780 39400 11170 26020 33700 24070 50300 27520 40800 59030 105600 119400 32000 43160 96720 30950 48970 80360 28220 28220 35240 31120 49940 31250 26370 54500
2022-02-24 53520 55610 16000 26800 34320 25680 46660 45150 16180 73550 40200 37160 35890 56620 20690 64150 111100 80220 21230 57450 47800 34540 49790 54800 112000 72210 317200 31600 52460 43450 19370 23030 87120 18010 111400 35510 158300 41630 31330 92830 23010 38540 81110 141800 32260 94270 29010 28690 32230 30450 59840 48160 60320 35010 61710 30260 38720 96220 30660 44430 26680 40560 82290 11580 53870 52610 29650 43500 109600 102300 28920 28730 26320 36470 134800 14470 54120 3126 24440 19910 24170 121200 18500 161000 100100 14070 35010 109900 43960 33580 35410 24040 22630 75380 16180 55030 95660 82190 28650 97820 31830 41490 106600 34360 21430 32780 31280 29660 41790 31030 25750 24640 28910 89810 35720 53770 27480 37350 11880 41760 87610 38820 24170 32160 34080 44040 28240 26110 36730 94580 36180 27640 19440 22380 61550 35620 179600 36450 21800 32720 26270 79760 39190 24600 80060 43340 22390 55500 26500 74200 28500 44800 72350 26830 31010 24400 32110 80280 42650 32310 25190 42410 89910 32090 36250 85420 46130 26910 21100 36500 13600 32030 64460 38780 30500 35540 80000 50950 124400 53460 98950 39410 244200 111500 24640 84260 29930 28540 46460 156900 68780 48840 16310 15850 176900 32860 81660 13990 26610 18340 62850 18480 22460 41300 51650 40980 48170 25090 84800 22870 18250 18450 40500 39150 33620 94520 36070 98880 41140 60940 34510 22030 27630 46220 35220 29340 105700 45300 18650 54480 67360 18830 29560 70720 90850 37160 99400 40940 18020 73500 3083 44800 23810 28680 33610 65570 71860 59940 24320 46180 49760 91780 42760 25430 44960 53290 66570 18990 56790 13120 71230 24530 22280 20960 83090 33790 24580 35260 30020 9850 11580 87370 102300 26180 22160 30820 85690 25350 32840 165300 3730 78710 47480 64170 34650 26800 20300 41390 31080 80200 18900 23310 37350 23040 95450 32450 25450 36910 34540 37600 32060 49070 69900 52510 90140 31050 44210 59170 38790 26140 25500 23500 90850 64490 77530 33160 27590 87950 26300 63190 41380 64840 61720 73250 24050 24830 30460 54350 36850 33510 23490 36700 27990 56060 36760 34750 24950 14460 95150 75020 30960 24460 33940 34350 105400 84260 80440 101800 67110 40450 31190 34130 37820 22740 33840 39600 11220 26210 33810 24170 50820 27650 40950 59170 105700 119800 32130 43240 96850 31050 49170 80590 28330 28500 35270 31220 50040 31290 26480 54700
2022-02-25 54060 56240 16100 26850 34390 25890 46910 45350 16290 73800 40340 37220 36040 56890 20770 64190 111400 80350 21260 57580 47920 34590 49930 54910 112400 72290 317800 31670 52530 43560 19400 23060 87250 18030 111700 35580 158500 41760 31450 93110 23040 38570 81280 142000 32390 94480 29100 28740 32330 30490 59930 48240 60460 35100 61800 30330 38860 96420 30750 44470 26740 40730 82450 11620 54000 52700 29740 43670 109800 102500 29000 28820 26370 36530 136200 14600 54240 3142 24500 19960 24240 121500 18560 161500 100400 14100 35100 110100 44060 33710 35480 24150 22630 75510 16230 55190 95810 82410 28740 98020 32120 41830 106700 34600 21520 32910 31470 29820 41840 31110 26010 24730 29110 90110 35820 54000 27560 37390 11890 41800 87740 38870 24250 32230 34250 44440 28320 26220 36920 95440 36210 27710 19510 22410 61670 35680 180700 36610 21870 32780 26350 79900 39320 24620 80220 43440 22460 55540 26580 74350 28540 45040 72560 26940 31070 24470 32210 80360 42740 32420 25240 42840 90020 32140 36420 85580 46300 26940 21240 36570 13610 32160 64660 38840 30600 35640 80280 51000 124600 53550 99060 39510 244500 111700 24720 84400 29980 28600 46650 157200 68870 49010 16340 15910 177200 32900 81780 14020 26690 18380 62970 18560 22550 41470 51800 41210 48280 25350 85000 22970 18280 18690 40600 39320 33690 94740 36170 99140 41190 61200 34750 22060 27720 46260 35290 29410 106300 45360 18750 54750 67540 18870 29590 70890 90960 37320 99600 41050 18040 73590 3115 44970 23880 28720 33910 65650 72070 60080 24390 46230 49810 91890 42820 25520 45060 53610 66650 19020 56930 13170 71330 24600 22310 21010 83230 33900 24630 35330 30140 9900 11610 87510 102400 26220 22340 30940 85860 25390 32900 165700 3825 78940 47630 64300 34810 27000 20370 41520 31170 80500 18990 23370 37420 23110 96140 32560 25550 37040 34590 37760 32150 49170 70070 52610 90270 31100 44390 59270 38920 26180 25570 23690 90930 64570 77650 33260 27740 88180 26380 63270 41450 64880 61850 73410 24130 24880 30600 54430 36920 33620 23570 36790 28080 56170 36860 34810 24970 14500 95260 75130 30990 24520 34040 34440 105600 84380 80540 102000 67200 40630 31270 34250 37930 22780 33890 39780 11260 26370 33910 24260 51190 27770 41090 59250 105900 120200 32240 43320 96980 31130 49330 80770 28410 28720 35290 31310 50130 31330 26580 54870
2022-02-26 54450 56700 16180 26900 34450 26060 47130 45550 16390 74030 40470 37270 36170 57120 20850 64200 111600 80470 21290 57690 48040 34650 50050 55010 112800 72350 318300 31740 52580 43650 19440 23080 87350 18050 112000 35640 158700 41870 31570 93350 23070 38590 81400 142200 32510 94600 29170 28780 32410 30530 60010 48300 60580 35120 61870 30390 38980 96620 30830 44520 26800 40900 82600 11660 54110 52790 29830 43820 110100 102600 29080 28900 26410 36580 137200 14690 54350 3161 24540 20010 24290 121900 18620 161900 100600 14120 35170 110200 44150 33800 35540 24240 22640 75630 16270 55350 95940 82620 28830 98190 32320 42050 106900 34750 21600 33020 31620 29960 41890 31180 26180 24800 29260 90370 35900 54190 27640 37410 11910 41850 87800 38910 24320 32290 34390 44740 28400 26310 37090 96000 36230 27770 19570 22440 61760 35750 181500 36750 21930 32830 26420 79990 39410 24640 80380 43520 22520 55560 26640 74480 28570 45230 72750 27040 31110 24540 32300 80400 42820 32520 25290 43210 90130 32190 36560 85730 46440 26970 21350 36630 13630 32260 64830 38880 30680 35740 80500 51050 124800 53630 99170 39590 244800 111900 24790 84560 30020 28650 46840 157500 68960 49160 16360 15970 177400 32930 81890 14050 26760 18420 63060 18630 22640 41620 51940 41410 48380 25550 85170 23060 18310 18890 40680 39480 33750 94920 36260 99370 41230 61430 34950 22100 27800 46300 35330 29480 106700 45420 18820 54980 67700 18910 29610 71040 91070 37470 99700 41140 18070 73660 3153 45110 23930 28750 34130 65680 72250 60220 24440 46280 49840 92000 42870 25590 45120 53860 66730 19050 57070 13210 71410 24660 22330 21070 83360 33990 24670 35400 30240 9940 11630 87630 102500 26250 22470 31040 86020 25420 32960 166000 3909 79150 47750 64420 34960 27130 20420 41640 31250 80760 19070 23420 37490 23160 96650 32660 25640 37170 34640 37910 32220 49240 70230 52710 90400 31150 44540 59360 39030 26220 25600 23820 91010 64630 77680 33350 27870 88370 26450 63320 41500 64910 61980 73540 24190 24930 30710 54500 36990 33710 23650 36870 28160 56270 36950 34850 24980 14540 95330 75230 31020 24570 34120 34520 105700 84480 80620 102200 67300 40780 31340 34370 38040 22820 33930 39930 11300 26490 33980 24330 51440 27860 41220 59340 106000 120600 32340 43390 97100 31210 49470 80920 28490 28890 35310 31400 50210 31370 26650 55010
2022-02-27 54890 57220 16260 26950 34510 26260 47350 45750 16490 74260 40590 37320 36300 57330 20920 64430 111800 80590 21320 57800 48150 34700 50160 55120 113200 72610 318800 31800 52640 43730 19460 23110 87450 18080 112300 35700 158900 41990 31680 93580 23150 38620 81760 142700 32630 94980 29240 28830 32500 30570 60090 48350 60690 35350 62090 30450 39100 96790 30910 44590 26850 41060 82760 11700 54220 52880 29920 43970 110300 102800 29150 28990 26460 36630 138200 14800 54470 3182 24590 20060 24350 122200 18670 162300 100800 14150 35250 110600 44240 33900 35590 24320 22640 75750 16320 55520 96070 82830 28910 98360 32520 42290 107100 34930 21680 33140 31800 30090 42050 31250 26380 24880 29440 90620 35980 54390 27720 37560 11930 42020 88100 39030 24390 32350 34520 45080 28480 26400 37250 96670 36250 27830 19630 22480 61860 35810 182400 36880 21990 32890 26490 80270 39610 24650 80530 43600 22580 55710 26710 74780 28610 45410 72930 27130 31160 24610 32390 80670 42900 32610 25340 43580 90240 32230 36710 85880 46590 26990 21480 36690 13650 32400 65110 39010 30750 35840 80720 51280 125000 53710 99500 39670 245000 112000 24860 84860 30060 28700 47030 157800 69040 49310 16430 16020 177700 32970 82010 14070 26840 18450 63310 18700 22720 41770 52090 41610 48460 25770 85340 23140 18330 19070 40760 39630 33810 95090 36340 99580 41260 61660 35160 22130 27880 46350 35490 29540 107300 45470 18900 55200 67860 18940 29640 71180 91190 37620 99800 41220 18100 73720 3193 45240 23980 28780 34400 65980 72440 60350 24490 46330 50060 92100 42930 25670 45310 54150 66800 19080 57210 13250 71480 24720 22360 21130 83480 34080 24720 35460 30340 9980 11660 87740 102700 26280 22640 31150 86170 25460 33020 166300 3993 79360 47870 64520 35100 27260 20470 41760 31330 81020 19150 23470 37550 23220 97240 32770 25730 37290 34700 38050 32290 49320 70380 52810 90710 31200 44690 59440 39140 26250 25710 23990 91090 64700 77990 33450 28000 88560 26520 63580 41560 64940 62100 73670 24240 24980 30830 54570 37060 33810 23740 36950 28240 56370 37130 35020 24990 14580 95690 75330 31140 24690 34200 34600 105900 84570 80910 102500 67390 40920 31400 34480 38150 22850 34070 40090 11340 26630 34060 24400 51750 27960 41350 59550 106100 120900 32430 43460 97210 31280 49600 81070 28560 29060 35330 31480 50300 31410 26720 55150
2022-02-28 55290 57690 16330 27000 34570 26450 47560 45950 16610 74480 40710 37380 36410 57530 20980 64490 112100 80690 21360 57900 48260 34750 50280 55220 113600 72720 319300 31850 52680 43810 19490 23130 87550 18100 112500 35760 159100 42090 31780 93790 23190 38640 82010 143000 32740 95160 29310 28870 32580 30610 60170 48400 60790 35450 62230 30500 39220 97030 30990 44670 26890 41220 82900 11730 54320 52970 30010 44120 110600 102900 29210 29070 26500 36680 139200 14890 54590 3204 24620 20110 24400 122500 18730 162600 101000 14170 35320 110800 44330 33970 35650 24400 22640 75870 16360 55690 96180 83040 29000 98510 32720 42540 107200 35100 21760 33250 31990 30210 42120 31320 26560 24950 29620 90850 36050 54570 27800 37610 11950 42110 88240 39090 24450 32400 34650 45430 28560 26490 37400 97260 36260 27890 19690 22510 61950 35870 183300 37010 22040 32940 26550 80420 39740 24670 80690 43680 22640 55800 26770 74960 28650 45570 73100 27220 31200 24680 32480 80790 42980 32690 25380 43930 90340 32280 36840 86030 46720 27020 21640 36760 13650 32530 65310 39100 30830 35940 80910 51380 125200 53780 99690 39750 245300 112200 24940 85040 30100 28750 47230 158000 69120 49450 16470 16070 177900 33000 82120 14100 26910 18480 63460 18760 22800 41910 52230 41790 48540 25970 85500 23220 18360 19220 40830 39780 33870 95250 36420 99790 41300 61880 35380 22160 27950 46390 35570 29600 107800 45530 18970 55410 68010 18970 29670 71330 91300 37760 100000 41300 18120 73780 3236 45370 24020 28810 34650 66070 72610 60490 24530 46380 50150 92210 42970 25730 45410 54460 66870 19100 57350 13280 71550 24770 22380 21180 83600 34160 24770 35520 30430 10010 11680 87850 102800 26310 22770 31250 86320 25500 33070 166500 4072 79550 47970 64620 35240 27420 20520 41890 31400 81250 19220 23520 37620 23270 97790 32870 25820 37400 34740 38190 32360 49390 70540 52910 90900 31260 44820 59520 39240 26290 25760 24120 91170 64750 78100 33540 28110 88720 26590 63700 41620 64970 62230 73780 24290 25030 30930 54640 37130 33890 23820 37040 28310 56470 37240 35090 25000 14620 95840 75420 31210 24750 34270 34690 106100 84660 81040 102700 67480 41050 31460 34590 38250 22890 34120 40230 11380 26780 34130 24460 52020 28050 41480 59680 106200 121300 32520 43540 97320 31350 49730 81200 28630 29210 35370 31570 50370 31450 26790 55290
2022-03-01 55300 57700 16400 27050 34630 26510 47770 46150 16670 74710 40830 37430 36520 57710 21050 64610 112300 80790 21390 58010 48360 34810 50390 55320 114000 72860 319700 31910 52720 43890 19510 23150 87640 18130 112800 35820 159200 42200 31880 94000 23230 38660 82280 143400 32840 95430 29380 28920 32660 30640 60240 48450 60880 35590 62420 30550 39330 97130 31060 44710 26930 41390 83050 11760 54430 53060 30100 44250 110800 103100 29280 29160 26540 36720 139400 14930 54700 3227 24660 20150 24450 122800 18790 162900 101200 14190 35390 111000 44420 34050 35700 24480 22660 75990 16400 55860 96300 83250 29080 98650 32720 42590 107400 35100 21830 33360 32050 30320 42220 31380 26610 25010 29660 91070 36120 54760 27880 37730 11970 42260 88430 39170 24510 32460 34760 45560 28630 26570 37550 97260 36280 27950 19750 22530 62030 35940 183800 37120 22090 32990 26610 80620 39890 24680 80850 43750 22690 55950 26830 75140 28680 45730 73270 27300 31240 24760 32560 80920 43060 32770 25420 44280 90450 32330 36980 86170 46860 27040 21720 36820 13670 32660 65480 39200 30890 36030 81100 51520 125300 53860 99970 39820 245600 112300 25010 85250 30150 28790 47420 158300 69190 49590 16510 16120 178100 33030 82240 14130 26980 18500 63630 18830 22880 42040 52380 41970 48620 26050 85660 23290 18380 19370 40900 39920 33930 95400 36490 99980 41330 62090 35450 22190 28010 46430 35680 29660 108100 45590 19030 55610 68150 19000 29700 71470 91410 37900 100100 41370 18150 73840 3281 45490 24050 28830 34670 66250 72780 60620 24560 46430 50310 92320 43020 25790 45530 54610 66930 19130 57490 13310 71620 24830 22400 21240 83710 34250 24820 35590 30520 10050 11700 87960 102900 26350 22810 31340 86460 25530 33130 166800 4151 79730 48080 64720 35370 27460 20570 42010 31460 81480 19290 23570 37680 23320 97980 32970 25900 37510 34790 38340 32420 49450 70690 53010 91150 31310 44950 59600 39330 26320 25820 24160 91250 64810 78260 33630 28230 88880 26650 63850 41680 65000 62360 73890 24340 25080 31030 54710 37200 33980 23900 37120 28380 56560 37340 35210 25010 14650 96080 75520 31320 24820 34340 34770 106200 84740 81230 103000 67570 41170 31520 34700 38360 22920 34210 40380 11420 26850 34190 24520 52100 28140 41610 59850 106300 121600 32610 43610 97440 31420 49840 81320 28690 29360 35390 31650 50450 31490 26850 55410

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-23 to 2022-03-01

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-02-22 51420 53177 15803 26702 34203 24841 46178 44729 15820 73058 39929 37051 35588 56074 20522 64075 110574 79958 21169 57208 47560 34437 49534 54586 111187 72055 316053 31458 52311 43249 19285 22983 86893 17964 110832 35396 157816 41379 31074 92280 22907 38479 80517 141005 32005 93607 28839 28603 32043 30361 59670 48003 60052 34723 61388 30121 38450 95321 30466 44197 26567 40201 81984 11486 53634 52443 29471 43163 109069 101976 28757 28547 26234 36350 129893 14079 53895 3090 24318 19801 24052 120475 18377 160081 99647 14020 34851 109525 43785 33345 35291 23825 22576 75143 16081 54693 95382 81760 28468 97459 30699 40203 106250 33448 21243 32538 30635 29332 41625 30869 24928 24471 28231 89221 35527 53337 27324 37158 11842 41608 87230 38646 24006 32040 33746 42646 28074 25889 36342 91322 36127 27523 19303 22311 61335 35493 176216 36129 21659 32618 26117 79365 38699 24552 79746 43152 22257 55362 26357 73705 28425 44341 71932 26617 30895 24268 31899 80070 42472 32102 25099 41507 89726 32001 35938 85121 45806 26853 20626 36387 13574 31569 63743 38638 30311 35337 79467 50778 123953 53274 98552 39226 243626 111132 24486 83756 29853 28434 46067 156192 68589 48493 16218 15732 176355 32800 81452 13931 26466 18246 62418 18327 22287 40962 51353 40532 47954 24203 84438 22674 18129 17946 40293 38810 33480 94094 35864 98376 41048 60420 33640 21968 27456 46152 35048 29197 103649 45193 18465 53937 67010 18742 29512 70400 90654 36836 99191 40743 17960 73341 3016 44482 23678 28587 32504 65378 71457 59654 24179 46083 49541 91594 42648 25257 44743 52284 66368 18932 56506 13028 71060 24402 22229 20843 82821 33584 24494 35139 29778 9750 11528 87122 101996 26122 21474 30591 85362 25280 32731 164652 3541 78247 47194 63914 34326 26145 20179 41134 30901 79612 18711 23200 37224 22921 93177 32247 25238 36642 34434 37301 31885 48904 69555 52307 89710 30950 43866 58976 38536 26056 25303 22811 90714 64367 77143 32960 27306 87509 26151 62948 41267 64772 61471 72940 23898 24736 30192 54200 36715 33313 23313 36541 27808 55836 36456 34543 24925 14377 94797 74835 30848 24266 33728 34189 105027 84054 80149 101292 66926 40105 31045 33886 37603 22667 33725 39253 11135 25735 33633 24010 49442 27431 40676 58890 105483 119089 31913 43097 96633 30881 48857 80243 28160 28078 35191 31037 49868 31214 26307 54375
2022-02-23 51910 53680 15890 26750 34260 25090 46390 44970 15960 73300 40070 37100 35690 56200 20580 64110 110700 80020 21190 57300 47670 34480 49620 54720 111600 72120 316200 31500 52330 43300 19310 23000 86910 17990 111100 35470 157900 41450 31150 92390 22950 38510 80720 141400 32100 93800 28880 28650 32100 30370 59710 48050 60090 34820 61510 30170 38610 95480 30520 44250 26590 40390 82140 11510 53680 52550 29570 43290 109100 102200 28800 28600 26290 36380 130900 14160 54030 3126 24350 19830 24090 120900 18440 160200 99800 14040 34930 109600 43850 33380 35340 23890 22590 75280 16120 54870 95430 82010 28540 97560 30900 40410 106300 33620 21300 32640 30790 29390 41690 30920 25130 24540 28440 89410 35590 53480 27430 37230 11860 41700 87330 38700 24030 32070 33850 42930 28140 25950 36460 92110 36160 27590 19350 22340 61400 35540 177200 36190 21710 32650 26160 79480 38820 24570 79870 43190 22320 55430 26390 73840 28470 44450 72070 26690 30910 24350 31950 80160 42580 32160 25120 41720 89830 32050 36080 85210 45880 26860 20770 36460 13580 31720 63920 38720 30360 35470 79550 50810 124100 53340 98700 39280 243900 111200 24540 83970 29900 28490 46280 156500 68620 48590 16250 15780 176500 32840 81540 13960 26530 18260 62520 18390 22330 41110 51520 40700 47980 24400 84570 22740 18150 18010 40330 38980 33520 94200 35930 98460 41070 60590 33870 22000 27500 46170 35130 29280 104200 45280 18500 54110 67120 18760 29570 70530 90840 36950 99300 40810 17970 73390 3075 44570 23710 28600 32840 65410 71600 59730 24210 46110 49610 91660 42660 25320 44850 52570 66420 18950 56580 13050 71100 24450 22240 20890 82900 33610 24550 35200 29850 9787 11550 87200 102000 26160 21630 30700 85470 25310 32800 164800 3612 78440 47240 64030 34410 26300 20220 41290 30940 79830 18770 23240 37280 22970 93770 32340 25320 36740 34470 37440 31930 48960 69670 52390 89880 31020 43980 59030 38590 26100 25350 22980 90780 64410 77210 33030 27400 87610 26220 63060 41360 64810 61600 73000 23940 24790 30250 54260 36810 33420 23400 36610 27870 55900 36550 34600 24950 14410 94960 74850 30930 24310 33770 34280 105100 84120 80280 101500 66980 40220 31120 33940 37720 22700 33820 39380 11170 25890 33660 24040 49750 27520 40780 59010 105500 119400 32000 43150 96800 30950 48980 80270 28210 28230 35210 31170 49990 31250 26350 54470
2022-02-24 52230 54070 15970 26810 34340 25230 46600 45150 16060 73560 40250 37180 35820 56430 20660 64240 111000 80180 21230 57450 47820 34560 49750 54910 112000 72280 316800 31570 52430 43370 19340 23040 87030 18040 111500 35570 158400 41580 31330 92650 22990 38550 81100 141600 32230 94050 28950 28720 32160 30420 59840 48090 60230 34940 61640 30240 38750 95680 30590 44320 26650 40550 82360 11560 53780 52670 29680 43530 109300 102400 28870 28710 26370 36450 131700 14220 54120 3149 24400 19880 24140 121200 18520 160700 100000 14070 35060 109800 43940 33440 35420 23990 22630 75500 16170 55020 95580 82250 28660 97800 31090 40700 106500 33750 21380 32760 30910 29500 41810 30990 25270 24650 28570 89650 35690 53690 27540 37350 11890 41820 87440 38790 24090 32170 34000 43170 28220 26040 36580 92750 36210 27680 19420 22390 61510 35610 178000 36330 21780 32770 26280 79640 39000 24600 80050 43270 22380 55530 26460 74040 28530 44610 72290 26800 30960 24440 32010 80300 42740 32230 25170 41970 90030 32120 36260 85330 46090 26910 20890 36550 13600 31850 64120 38790 30460 35600 79700 50910 124400 53450 99000 39350 244500 111500 24590 84210 29960 28580 46470 156800 68800 48700 16290 15850 176700 32910 81740 14010 26630 18280 62790 18460 22440 41320 51690 40890 48070 24560 84780 22810 18190 18110 40380 39130 33600 94390 36020 98640 41100 60780 34020 22050 27580 46230 35250 29370 104600 45400 18580 54340 67320 18790 29660 70760 91080 37120 99500 40910 18010 73520 3124 44740 23760 28650 33040 65630 71810 59830 24260 46200 49750 91800 42720 25400 45000 52830 66480 18990 56690 13100 71230 24520 22260 20950 83080 33710 24630 35310 29980 9819 11590 87360 102200 26280 21730 30830 85680 25390 32900 165100 3704 78680 47360 64190 34510 26410 20300 41450 31010 80120 18820 23290 37430 23050 94210 32480 25430 36860 34540 37610 32010 49040 69870 52510 90120 31090 44120 59150 38690 26150 25410 23130 90960 64530 77380 33150 27520 87790 26310 63240 41470 64890 61790 73140 24010 24840 30390 54380 36900 33560 23500 36740 27970 56060 36680 34710 24970 14450 95150 74940 31020 24380 33820 34390 105200 84310 80450 101800 67120 40370 31240 34080 37850 22750 33910 39540 11210 26030 33740 24090 50010 27620 40910 59160 105600 120100 32120 43260 97040 31040 49170 80490 28290 28380 35240 31280 50190 31320 26410 54600
2022-02-25 52610 54430 16070 26870 34400 25400 46810 45310 16170 73890 40400 37240 35970 56530 20730 64370 111200 80310 21290 57550 48040 34640 49880 55060 112400 72380 317600 31640 52500 43410 19360 23060 87100 18080 111900 35660 158600 41680 31410 92800 23020 38570 81360 141900 32340 94240 29020 28770 32270 30460 59920 48130 60400 35050 61710 30300 38950 95740 30660 44350 26700 40720 82670 11590 53950 52750 29800 43730 109500 102600 28940 28850 26440 36530 132500 14280 54260 3173 24430 19930 24230 121600 18600 161000 100200 14100 35150 110000 44080 33520 35480 24070 22640 75680 16210 55170 95710 82620 28780 97970 31250 40940 106700 33880 21460 32860 31050 29640 41890 31080 25440 24720 28730 89860 35760 53880 27630 37430 11920 41900 87610 38850 24160 32260 34120 43360 28270 26170 36680 93400 36260 27740 19490 22430 61570 35680 178700 36480 21840 32850 26380 79880 39130 24610 80190 43390 22470 55580 26520 74160 28580 44730 72440 26900 31030 24550 32120 80370 42890 32380 25200 42190 90300 32190 36410 85510 46200 26950 20980 36620 13610 31950 64280 38860 30540 35780 79810 50950 124700 53490 99200 39390 244800 111700 24690 84340 30030 28650 46660 157200 68980 48860 16330 15910 176900 33000 81850 14070 26720 18300 63010 18520 22520 41450 51850 41070 48150 24700 85130 22880 18210 18210 40420 39320 33710 94490 36090 98750 41120 60960 34170 22100 27660 46310 35380 29500 105000 45510 18660 54490 67440 18860 29720 70980 91230 37270 99700 40980 18040 73630 3177 44870 23780 28680 33300 65830 72150 59980 24300 46270 49900 91990 42780 25470 45120 53050 66540 19020 56800 13140 71320 24570 22290 21040 83230 33790 24700 35390 30090 9849 11610 87480 102400 26350 21860 30930 85800 25460 32980 165600 3790 78870 47510 64320 34650 26530 20350 41620 31110 80330 18910 23380 37580 23090 94690 32590 25530 36970 34610 37760 32070 49170 70000 52640 90280 31130 44230 59250 38780 26200 25490 23270 91090 64650 77620 33250 27630 87930 26390 63360 41560 64910 61970 73250 24050 24920 30440 54480 36980 33630 23600 36880 28040 56170 36780 34780 24990 14490 95260 75000 31100 24430 33850 34530 105400 84470 80550 102000 67220 40510 31330 34190 37950 22820 33980 39700 11250 26170 33800 24180 50270 27710 41080 59260 105800 120400 32200 43320 97230 31140 49330 80630 28350 28520 35260 31450 50310 31380 26500 54810
2022-02-26 52920 54720 16120 26920 34480 25530 47010 45470 16250 74130 40530 37310 36060 56730 20790 64440 111400 80460 21320 57650 48190 34710 49970 55210 112800 72490 317900 31700 52520 43500 19380 23120 87300 18110 112100 35750 158700 41750 31490 93010 23060 38600 81460 142400 32460 94390 29080 28800 32340 30490 59980 48160 60440 35110 61930 30330 39080 95850 30720 44410 26740 40880 82840 11610 54010 52880 29910 43850 109600 102800 29010 28920 26510 36570 133000 14340 54490 3196 24450 19980 24270 121900 18670 161100 100400 14120 35250 110300 44140 33630 35530 24150 22660 75760 16240 55320 95910 82790 28850 98100 31510 41030 107100 33980 21540 33020 31150 29710 41930 31150 25510 24790 28860 89950 35830 54120 27700 37500 11940 42000 87880 38900 24220 32320 34230 43610 28410 26220 36780 93720 36290 27810 19560 22470 61680 35730 179200 36650 21900 32910 26440 80010 39210 24630 80450 43460 22510 55740 26560 74300 28630 44820 72650 26990 31080 24620 32290 80530 43020 32460 25270 42480 90460 32240 36570 85800 46300 26970 21060 36790 13620 32050 64440 38980 30610 35910 80080 51140 124800 53630 99400 39520 245000 111800 24820 84440 30070 28690 46880 157400 69130 49050 16350 15950 177200 33020 81990 14100 26800 18310 63070 18590 22570 41570 52010 41250 48210 24810 85230 22950 18230 18290 40450 39410 33750 94720 36130 99040 41140 61140 34320 22140 27720 46400 35460 29570 105200 45610 18710 54610 67570 18890 29790 71210 91380 37420 99900 41060 18060 73680 3222 44990 23810 28700 33450 65920 72350 60260 24330 46320 50020 92120 42820 25520 45200 53250 66600 19040 57070 13170 71400 24630 22340 21160 83370 33890 24760 35470 30190 9878 11640 87580 102500 26390 21940 31020 85920 25510 33070 165800 3872 79070 47590 64420 34810 26620 20390 41770 31210 80560 19000 23420 37670 23120 95080 32720 25620 37080 34660 37910 32130 49220 70330 52730 90440 31180 44320 59310 38860 26250 25540 23360 91200 64730 77740 33340 27740 88060 26440 63460 41650 64960 62140 73340 24080 24950 30550 54560 37070 33690 23700 36930 28100 56230 36880 34850 25000 14520 95560 75210 31160 24480 33880 34640 105700 84530 80660 102200 67320 40640 31400 34270 38050 22900 34050 39910 11290 26220 33840 24220 50430 27810 41190 59370 106000 120800 32300 43510 97320 31260 49490 80720 28500 28620 35280 31530 50400 31440 26550 54870
2022-02-27 53130 55060 16170 26980 34560 25640 47210 45650 16300 74380 40660 37360 36140 56910 20870 64590 111700 80600 21350 57760 48310 34770 50130 55310 113200 72690 318600 31760 52600 43590 19400 23160 87470 18190 112400 35860 159000 41860 31610 93210 23120 38630 81700 142800 32560 94670 29140 28860 32400 30540 60080 48190 60540 35290 62130 30390 39190 95940 30790 44450 26800 41040 82990 11640 54120 53010 30020 43950 110200 103000 29070 29120 26570 36640 133700 14400 54590 3220 24480 20030 24310 122200 18750 161500 100500 14140 35340 110600 44250 33710 35610 24210 22670 75930 16280 55470 96090 82980 28950 98310 31620 41340 107400 34080 21600 33130 31310 29810 42050 31210 25630 24840 28960 90190 35890 54320 27770 37620 11970 42170 88110 38990 24290 32360 34330 43830 28480 26310 36880 94000 36330 27900 19620 22500 61790 35820 179900 36750 21960 32960 26500 80200 39380 24650 80570 43540 22560 55880 26620 74520 28690 44980 72840 27070 31110 24700 32370 80700 43130 32530 25330 43080 90670 32330 36710 86040 46450 27010 21160 36880 13620 32160 64670 39090 30690 36010 80320 51340 125000 53660 99700 39630 245400 112000 24890 84650 30140 28730 47070 157500 69230 49180 16400 15990 177500 33100 82200 14120 26890 18330 63240 18650 22750 41690 52170 41420 48320 24950 85440 23010 18250 18480 40490 39550 33820 94840 36220 99230 41160 61320 34420 22220 27770 46480 35590 29640 105800 45680 18810 54760 67670 18930 29840 71350 91600 37570 100100 41130 18100 73800 3289 45160 23840 28750 33580 66130 72530 60400 24360 46410 50190 92340 42910 25590 45360 53460 66650 19060 57280 13190 71510 24680 22360 21230 83480 33980 24880 35530 30250 9916 11660 87730 102700 26430 22060 31110 86040 25540 33160 166200 3955 79250 47730 64580 34980 26710 20440 41880 31290 80790 19050 23490 37750 23160 95370 32810 25700 37230 34720 38060 32190 49320 70470 52850 90670 31280 44480 59400 38950 26290 25620 23480 91380 64890 77880 33460 27850 88250 26510 63640 41730 65010 62310 73470 24140 25020 30650 54710 37150 33790 23790 37040 28180 56340 36970 34970 25020 14560 95800 75370 31280 24570 33910 34720 105900 84700 80870 102500 67450 40740 31470 34530 38210 22970 34140 40020 11320 26320 33920 24300 50820 27880 41330 59510 106200 121100 32370 43670 97500 31330 49620 80910 28580 28730 35290 31600 50500 31480 26620 55020
2022-02-28 53450 55420 16230 27040 34640 25760 47410 45860 16400 74660 40830 37470 36280 57060 20910 64770 112100 80750 21390 57930 48440 34830 50260 55440 113600 72860 319400 31820 52680 43690 19420 23220 87660 18240 112800 35950 159400 42000 31720 93480 23180 38660 82120 143100 32680 95030 29230 28960 32490 30600 60180 48230 60650 35450 62300 30470 39270 96110 30850 44530 26870 41200 83260 11680 54270 53150 30130 44080 110600 103200 29140 29240 26640 36720 134400 14460 54770 3244 24510 20070 24390 122600 18820 161800 100800 14180 35440 110900 44430 33770 35710 24270 22690 76180 16330 55630 96280 83380 29020 98510 31780 41580 107700 34210 21690 33270 31450 29940 42210 31290 25760 24910 29090 90440 36000 54470 27900 37730 11990 42340 88300 39100 24350 32440 34450 44040 28570 26430 36980 94470 36380 28000 19690 22540 61920 35940 180700 36840 22010 33040 26570 80440 39560 24680 80810 43660 22610 56060 26700 74720 28760 45110 73040 27180 31170 24790 32450 80910 43260 32600 25400 43630 90930 32400 36910 86230 46590 27060 21270 37000 13640 32320 64860 39180 30770 36110 80580 51550 125300 53720 100000 39710 246100 112300 24980 84960 30210 28800 47280 157900 69390 49310 16460 16080 177900 33170 82500 14150 26980 18340 63440 18710 22880 41810 52330 41590 48410 25080 85740 23070 18290 18600 40520 39690 33890 95090 36330 99480 41190 61500 34570 22280 27850 46580 35700 29690 106200 45750 18880 55010 67820 18970 29880 71590 91800 37700 100400 41230 18140 73910 3325 45310 23880 28800 33820 66340 72730 60540 24390 46530 50340 92550 42970 25650 45500 53690 66700 19100 57470 13240 71610 24750 22400 21310 83700 34080 24950 35650 30340 9940 11690 87910 102900 26480 22170 31230 86240 25590 33250 166600 4040 79440 47840 64690 35140 26810 20510 42040 31360 81060 19110 23580 37830 23230 95730 32940 25780 37360 34790 38260 32260 49420 70680 53010 90980 31360 44610 59550 39050 26340 25690 23600 91630 65010 78050 33560 27960 88450 26590 63860 41830 65070 62490 73600 24190 25120 30790 54860 37230 33900 23890 37160 28260 56500 37120 35090 25040 14590 96070 75550 31380 24650 33960 34830 106100 84900 81150 102900 67640 40840 31540 34730 38370 23040 34210 40140 11370 26440 34020 24370 51000 27990 41570 59720 106400 121400 32440 43770 97780 31430 49740 81140 28670 28860 35330 31690 50610 31550 26690 55180
2022-03-01 53680 55720 16290 27100 34720 25970 47620 46050 16480 74900 40990 37550 36380 57200 21010 64870 112300 80890 21420 58060 48570 34900 50380 55650 114000 72990 319900 31880 52750 43740 19440 23260 87750 18300 113200 36030 159800 42140 31820 93700 23230 38690 82390 143400 32800 95290 29300 29020 32550 30640 60290 48260 60740 35610 62500 30550 39390 96260 30920 44590 26920 41360 83460 11710 54380 53250 30240 44190 111000 103500 29200 29370 26730 36800 135000 14520 54890 3268 24540 20120 24450 123000 18890 162200 101100 14210 35540 111200 44540 33820 35790 24360 22720 76360 16370 55780 96430 83630 29090 98690 31840 41730 107900 34320 21770 33390 31650 30060 42310 31350 25850 25010 29190 90650 36100 54590 28000 37850 12020 42480 88420 39190 24400 32500 34600 44150 28650 26520 37080 94690 36410 28080 19760 22590 62080 36020 181200 36980 22070 33100 26630 80620 39730 24710 81000 43750 22660 56210 26760 74910 28820 45260 73260 27290 31220 24870 32520 81030 43400 32670 25450 43840 91120 32470 37080 86360 46690 27100 21380 37090 13650 32460 65050 39260 30850 36230 80730 51670 125400 53780 100200 39780 246600 112500 25050 85190 30260 28870 47490 158100 69500 49420 16510 16160 178200 33210 82720 14200 27070 18350 63590 18770 22990 41980 52490 41760 48480 25190 85930 23140 18320 18690 40550 39870 33950 95270 36410 99670 41220 61680 34650 22330 27920 46660 35790 29770 106500 45900 18960 55210 67980 19000 29970 71810 91970 37820 100600 41310 18170 74000 3389 45490 23930 28840 33930 66490 72920 60650 24430 46620 50540 92680 43040 25730 45680 53890 66760 19130 57610 13300 71720 24820 22420 21370 83840 34150 25060 35760 30450 9967 11730 88070 103100 26530 22280 31340 86400 25620 33340 166900 4123 79640 47940 64810 35250 26930 20590 42170 31440 81340 19170 23650 37900 23280 96010 33080 25880 37480 34850 38430 32330 49520 70930 53120 91250 31430 44740 59670 39150 26400 25740 23710 91800 65120 78180 33670 28070 88610 26670 64060 41910 65140 62670 73730 24270 25170 30880 54970 37300 34020 23990 37250 28370 56620 37230 35240 25060 14620 96270 75650 31480 24720 34000 34930 106300 85070 81360 103100 67780 40980 31650 34880 38500 23090 34330 40270 11410 26530 34080 24420 51200 28080 41720 59880 106500 121800 32540 43920 98020 31520 49890 81290 28760 28990 35350 31820 50750 31610 26740 55310

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.