COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-02-27 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-02-27

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-02-27

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-272022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-02-062021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-02-062021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Peak daily increment 3890 5490 543 1126 1275 1551 804 437 785 1774 1382 1599 1253 2241 604 3477 4581 3961 989 2556 1660 1411 1658 2285 1199 3307 17521 1550 3317 2250 319 962 4696 641 4741 1427 8814 1557 928 4179 916 508 3217 6862 1115 3849 1176 1160 1302 2002 2935 611 2895 1143 2214 1302 1418 1131 1362 528 1222 456 3005 192 2422 2091 1033 1466 3801 4793 1173 962 949 1524 7786 703 1939 126 403 774 995 3960 513 7900 4326 551 1426 5019 1559 1550 1634 862 267 3466 481 896 4767 2335 1159 4687 2060 1916 4677 1765 663 1048 1230 885 1468 1093 1571 891 1526 3182 1563 1625 976 1274 417 1353 3625 1652 982 1189 1007 2309 930 917 560 6128 482 1022 779 884 2871 1519 5280 1464 847 1510 1137 3360 1261 323 3318 2105 817 2104 1115 3254 1188 1498 3091 867 1796 839 1224 4135 1707 1188 1044 2483 3914 1327 1158 3872 1474 1689 916 1209 234 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 3609 2021 6117 3336 4514 1732 11029 6320 803 3519 1176 1238 694 9205 3848 1963 580 540 10177 1515 3625 516 696 246 2554 503 650 1251 1058 648 2802 1361 3381 825 189 1584 532 1263 1329 4887 1519 5335 518 1141 1584 659 963 1941 1111 1060 3052 1824 525 1868 2931 835 1179 2965 3811 1403 5264 1790 839 4269 265 1562 291 1808 2232 3085 2613 2589 315 2466 2199 4529 2322 1065 1632 1647 1026 776 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 4307 1311 892 1297 1206 259 344 4748 5886 951 1383 1073 4438 857 1175 8405 638 3240 2347 2862 1130 1429 768 1599 1218 2982 587 863 1470 763 4181 1059 875 1101 1609 1007 1377 2510 3022 2379 4073 1253 1583 3012 1783 1077 992 1273 3842 3631 3812 1010 929 4460 904 2652 1725 890 2290 3757 968 844 990 2555 1394 1055 812 1551 1025 2766 1234 1351 341 431 5344 3306 1034 878 422 1143 5038 4407 3811 4283 2987 1563 1301 1098 1167 804 1352 1077 245 794 1620 922 2561 862 1416 1659 5841 3884 989 1539 4859 1307 1823 4157 1188 796 397 1077 2155 1437 1060 2087
Days since peak 21 21 34 34 34 21 34 62 21 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 61 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 61 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 61 34 34 34 34 34 61 34 60 34 60 34 60 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 21 21 34 21 61 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 60 34 34 60 34 34 34 34 21 21 34 21 34 34 21 34 34 34 21 34 21 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 21 34 34 60 21 61 34 34 34 34 34 5 34 34 34 34 34 34 61 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 21 34 34 34 34 34 34 21 34 61 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 62 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 21 34 34 61 21 60 34 34 34 34 34 62 34 21 34 34 34 34 34 21 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 21 34 61 34 21 34 34 34 59 34 34 34 34 34 34 21 62 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 21 34 34 34 34 34 21 34 34 34 34 21 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 21 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 21 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 60 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 60 34 34 34 34 34 61 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 21 34 34 21 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 61 34 34 34 34 34
Last total 54364 56361 16002 26837 34452 26414 47072 45736 16865 74051 40406 37234 35862 56604 20725 64295 111227 80288 21298 57552 47968 34598 49971 54957 113013 72435 317226 31593 52460 43463 19366 23072 87166 18103 111824 35612 158364 41684 31424 92778 23076 38577 81298 142259 32354 94251 29018 28768 32265 30430 59912 48155 60259 35128 61965 30271 38800 95761 30646 44413 26710 40928 82621 11576 53923 52831 29883 43558 109794 102649 28929 28865 26475 36523 137703 14959 54335 3359 24467 19932 24164 121758 18614 160780 100115 14141 35115 110222 44133 33477 35472 24022 22695 75581 16234 55388 95731 82631 28730 97859 32127 43035 106951 35649 21432 32985 32826 29605 41935 31100 26383 24675 30207 89870 35732 53903 27632 37461 11925 42002 87665 38861 24159 32265 34089 45133 28363 26124 36868 96574 36306 27814 19523 22429 61574 35681 189293 36491 21851 32799 26348 79828 39092 24657 80366 43368 22434 55800 26534 74224 28584 44694 72379 26903 31007 24576 32171 80462 42817 32379 25291 44323 90237 32190 36465 85554 46201 26927 22019 36697 13638 31927 64293 39001 30518 35738 79933 51193 124429 53474 99227 39480 244884 111521 24772 84301 30023 28631 46965 157024 68852 48798 16346 15957 177008 32941 81936 14035 26699 18294 62890 18591 22603 41339 51854 41219 48139 25652 84994 22930 18234 18856 40438 39233 33646 94559 36022 98807 41190 61228 35860 22144 27656 46338 35380 29436 110892 45394 18684 54561 67488 18830 29694 70976 91233 37153 99612 40943 18028 73572 3313 44909 23811 28653 34319 65836 72103 60067 24290 46304 49927 91993 42777 25416 45106 56015 66581 18996 57011 13118 71265 24587 22304 21093 83101 33805 24701 35414 30033 9822 11628 87467 102269 26329 22521 30975 85733 25450 33014 165422 3822 78955 47427 64248 34778 27727 20310 41583 31109 80447 18909 23377 37480 23093 99630 32560 25461 37046 34586 37852 32038 49092 70093 52646 90402 31171 44153 59245 38815 26185 25482 24097 91130 64608 77500 33312 27682 87888 26374 63365 41533 65032 61987 73160 24011 24930 30551 54537 37017 33608 23684 36858 28019 56119 36783 34907 25016 14481 95411 75173 31173 24505 33934 34543 105399 84406 80642 102137 67271 40517 31205 34245 38012 22854 33980 39697 11283 27436 33812 24152 52356 27803 41088 59429 105790 120254 32223 43453 97228 31123 49291 80550 28440 28455 35329 31381 50217 31376 26500 54803
Last daily increment 219 389 35 23 49 167 193 221 132 178 68 29 45 101 32 47 109 77 23 62 97 25 113 76 419 72 203 24 34 40 13 17 58 24 209 49 100 64 74 97 39 10 124 260 75 132 37 27 52 15 61 29 49 67 105 33 65 73 36 22 25 150 111 8 54 87 80 79 146 153 46 52 44 38 500 48 93 39 13 20 21 282 54 129 90 21 53 138 67 24 40 49 6 102 26 159 74 151 57 91 98 135 130 229 42 76 188 68 68 44 126 35 173 139 52 128 49 56 14 101 94 42 34 49 78 159 64 51 100 314 30 66 45 27 47 34 649 81 32 28 45 78 90 15 122 43 41 77 41 92 30 72 81 69 31 57 67 82 68 55 39 294 108 49 104 88 83 13 78 74 10 65 95 50 45 71 76 91 102 34 125 54 247 83 53 100 32 45 204 133 43 59 33 49 142 29 108 20 48 5 100 45 64 83 108 169 35 105 110 56 15 112 30 72 31 96 26 66 16 168 166 32 37 42 64 55 402 35 42 150 96 13 30 109 129 66 86 46 8 43 58 76 17 6 127 95 126 79 14 40 73 90 27 26 76 207 33 12 100 18 41 36 18 36 51 48 45 64 41 11 26 60 55 25 105 72 68 34 51 155 31 153 39 59 89 106 30 79 54 185 35 38 52 33 390 65 53 87 35 127 28 35 93 56 110 51 63 45 61 21 44 86 91 56 72 68 82 81 38 78 42 42 100 43 24 34 77 69 63 62 84 72 42 51 75 80 7 26 94 59 87 50 45 85 64 70 91 153 73 90 24 86 93 33 48 92 22 92 33 23 209 70 88 87 86 241 72 83 142 69 86 67 53 95 14 68 66 35 34 78
Last week 3225 3549 240 183 290 1716 1129 1299 1157 1251 594 232 338 662 246 288 828 411 156 433 511 210 527 475 2334 465 1459 170 175 274 97 111 339 173 1256 306 681 373 451 649 196 120 982 1573 422 840 219 217 278 94 314 187 257 531 719 184 432 538 226 253 176 928 779 100 370 491 516 500 905 803 214 395 302 204 8448 943 571 322 176 152 142 1621 292 886 572 139 323 857 436 164 232 234 126 556 188 886 424 1072 336 488 1544 3003 894 2313 257 550 2335 347 382 291 1603 253 2123 789 262 726 375 380 106 502 557 266 202 262 438 2681 353 296 687 5622 195 363 278 138 302 246 13781 460 249 232 275 588 497 124 775 271 224 534 218 677 187 453 570 349 130 398 335 462 444 346 230 3231 650 238 615 558 486 87 1509 385 74 474 693 440 256 498 603 506 607 249 861 326 1519 487 359 711 217 242 1136 1016 355 408 155 276 821 183 623 124 286 56 589 318 378 498 667 860 218 1559 709 319 114 1035 176 563 226 563 206 550 165 1008 2390 210 240 238 404 292 7621 268 258 768 598 111 220 697 721 423 549 248 89 270 357 550 155 79 1986 561 793 547 128 278 490 503 153 194 470 3971 241 80 624 110 253 228 101 316 348 274 265 333 310 94 122 419 347 246 1161 485 471 199 348 970 339 863 299 432 555 1716 174 565 255 1037 258 226 327 211 6859 405 282 487 185 708 184 232 673 444 875 286 366 316 337 151 221 1370 535 291 439 436 459 474 284 522 345 312 645 266 137 244 443 413 385 367 458 425 258 357 391 449 113 133 780 427 393 292 237 418 460 428 635 1087 419 513 211 442 508 237 324 552 175 1802 221 183 3133 439 509 674 392 1469 380 442 738 295 525 370 342 463 157 409 445 197 242 539
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-11-112021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-07-162021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-20 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-06-062021-07-162021-10-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-142021-10-192021-10-102021-08-052021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-10-18 --2021-07-142021-10-18 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012021-07-152021-11-03 --2021-07-14 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-242021-06-29 --2021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302021-06-05 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-07-142021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-06 --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-142021-07-122021-07-142021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-172021-07-14 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-10-142021-09-02 -- --2021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-14 --2021-07-152021-07-162021-07-15 --2021-07-112021-07-162021-07-152021-07-29 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-06-292021-08-182021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-122021-09-15 --2021-07-142021-07-112021-07-15 -- -- --2021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 -- --2021-08-302021-09-29 --2021-10-182021-07-122021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-08-032021-07-152021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-06-29 -- --2021-06-29 --2021-07-15 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192021-06-062021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-09-012021-08-17 -- --2021-07-162021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-17 -- --2021-10-042021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142021-07-13 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-182021-07-152021-06-29 --2021-08-172021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-08-192021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-07-172021-07-142021-07-152021-10-182021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-142021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-162021-07-08
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 260 276 70 139 152 144 287 379 176 943 127 159 126 202 293 107 478 103 176 68 218 621 4 258 94 72 97 74 160 249 177 72 159 115 101 227 67 170 203 269 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 142 21 114 708 607 376 53 101 229 122 140 92 86 64 202 400 269 137 188 133 135 183 122 100 65 157 15 61 22 105 58 110 128 185 88 171 421 67 56 82 274 123 941 95 63 113 163 229 84 156 152 61 65 146 54 151 87 82 90 203 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 247 316 301 117 707 51 213 80 99 120 41 47 448 96 169 40 164 72 72 101 274 115 49 31 184 116 384 105 164 123 94 256 621 176 291 228 77 96 322 87 264 158 255 143 118 343 297 114 289 268 40 140 67 213 75 73 49 116 70 253 94 78 123 96 482 169 277 202 118 49 345 86 85 470 128 68 77 92 106 303 200 152 243 70 131 87 77 91 243 339 240 201 428 57 145 101 329 219 85 143 137 116 92 150 92 78 105 131 134 106 226 286 64 79 352 157 313 195 144 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 99 63 117 120 74 138
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 42 2 28 49 59 18 128 103 28 53 51 54 99 179 71 406 33 65 31 75 124 39 190 42 75 22 83 100 2 100 38 34 44 31 68 97 73 35 58 22 21 92 25 46 68 129 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 64 5 25 227 190 143 16 39 112 49 43 39 41 32 63 142 128 56 26 49 49 40 57 36 30 35 6 25 7 38 23 49 44 80 41 67 199 29 19 32 75 54 199 21 30 40 76 57 27 54 75 27 32 32 18 70 38 41 37 59 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 107 143 74 44 295 20 66 35 43 51 17 14 164 48 77 11 75 30 20 36 58 32 24 2 75 54 120 38 54 61 39 68 126 83 115 88 22 40 111 42 112 50 87 51 19 108 49 51 60 125 18 61 17 69 20 21 17 56 25 104 38 28 40 33 189 80 91 64 40 22 58 34 40 141 59 28 35 35 42 55 94 56 65 34 49 36 27 33 118 78 85 62 96 24 64 24 103 85 30 34 55 35 37 63 23 33 36 51 61 41 72 125 31 36 172 70 94 86 69 36 31 40 47 87 17 31 42 85 24 58 112 316 69 28 31 52 43 35 59

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-28 to 2022-03-06

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-02-27 54364 56361 16002 26837 34452 26414 47072 45736 16865 74051 40406 37234 35862 56604 20725 64295 111227 80288 21298 57552 47968 34598 49971 54957 113013 72435 317226 31593 52460 43463 19366 23072 87166 18103 111824 35612 158364 41684 31424 92778 23076 38577 81298 142259 32354 94251 29018 28768 32265 30430 59912 48155 60259 35128 61965 30271 38800 95761 30646 44413 26710 40928 82621 11576 53923 52831 29883 43558 109794 102649 28929 28865 26475 36523 137703 14959 54335 3359 24467 19932 24164 121758 18614 160780 100115 14141 35115 110222 44133 33477 35472 24022 22695 75581 16234 55388 95731 82631 28730 97859 32127 43035 106951 35649 21432 32985 32826 29605 41935 31100 26383 24675 30207 89870 35732 53903 27632 37461 11925 42002 87665 38861 24159 32265 34089 45133 28363 26124 36868 96574 36306 27814 19523 22429 61574 35681 189293 36491 21851 32799 26348 79828 39092 24657 80366 43368 22434 55800 26534 74224 28584 44694 72379 26903 31007 24576 32171 80462 42817 32379 25291 44323 90237 32190 36465 85554 46201 26927 22019 36697 13638 31927 64293 39001 30518 35738 79933 51193 124429 53474 99227 39480 244884 111521 24772 84301 30023 28631 46965 157024 68852 48798 16346 15957 177008 32941 81936 14035 26699 18294 62890 18591 22603 41339 51854 41219 48139 25652 84994 22930 18234 18856 40438 39233 33646 94559 36022 98807 41190 61228 35860 22144 27656 46338 35380 29436 110892 45394 18684 54561 67488 18830 29694 70976 91233 37153 99612 40943 18028 73572 3313 44909 23811 28653 34319 65836 72103 60067 24290 46304 49927 91993 42777 25416 45106 56015 66581 18996 57011 13118 71265 24587 22304 21093 83101 33805 24701 35414 30033 9822 11628 87467 102269 26329 22521 30975 85733 25450 33014 165422 3822 78955 47427 64248 34778 27727 20310 41583 31109 80447 18909 23377 37480 23093 99630 32560 25461 37046 34586 37852 32038 49092 70093 52646 90402 31171 44153 59245 38815 26185 25482 24097 91130 64608 77500 33312 27682 87888 26374 63365 41533 65032 61987 73160 24011 24930 30551 54537 37017 33608 23684 36858 28019 56119 36783 34907 25016 14481 95411 75173 31173 24505 33934 34543 105399 84406 80642 102137 67271 40517 31205 34245 38012 22854 33980 39697 11283 27436 33812 24152 52356 27803 41088 59429 105790 120254 32223 43453 97228 31123 49291 80550 28440 28455 35329 31381 50217 31376 26500 54803
2022-02-28 55190 57440 16030 26890 34560 26690 47270 45970 16950 74260 40480 37300 35960 56740 20820 64400 111600 80390 21330 57620 48080 34640 50130 55140 113400 72600 317800 31630 52520 43540 19380 23110 87240 18160 112100 35720 158700 41810 31500 93010 23140 38600 81810 142700 32440 94530 29090 28890 32380 30490 60050 48200 60330 35280 62180 30330 38850 95990 30700 44580 26780 41090 82770 11600 54100 53010 29960 43660 110100 102800 28980 28950 26520 36590 139000 15050 54450 3395 24490 19970 24190 122000 18660 161100 100300 14170 35180 110500 44280 33540 35510 24070 22710 75780 16250 55560 95800 82800 28910 98170 32560 43220 107200 35710 21480 33090 32840 29650 42070 31140 26660 24730 30280 90010 35790 54240 27700 37670 11950 42170 87860 38910 24230 32320 34180 45570 28440 26250 36990 97900 36340 27900 19580 22450 61650 35750 190200 36580 21890 32850 26410 80030 39260 24680 80500 43420 22480 55970 26650 74350 28640 44760 72570 26990 31030 24650 32290 80670 42920 32430 25350 44780 90490 32240 36580 85790 46370 26970 22100 36780 13650 32090 64680 39090 30580 35860 80100 51370 124600 53550 99500 39570 245400 111800 24840 84490 30120 28680 47160 157200 68940 48890 16360 16010 177300 33020 82150 14050 26770 18300 63040 18670 22680 41420 51930 41370 48170 25940 85150 22970 18300 19170 40470 39480 33770 94690 36090 98940 41220 61460 35890 22180 27710 46440 35510 29500 111500 45450 18710 54720 67600 18870 29740 71130 91530 37200 99900 41000 18050 73660 3375 45060 23840 28690 34780 66050 72300 60350 24300 46380 50140 92190 42860 25470 45270 56350 66600 19020 57130 13140 71390 24680 22330 21140 83390 34010 24750 35500 30100 9839 11640 87580 102500 26380 22800 31070 85890 25500 33090 165800 4048 79140 47690 64440 34870 27860 20340 41680 31160 80600 18950 23460 37530 23130 99600 32680 25510 37250 34700 37990 32080 49190 70250 52830 90590 31290 44320 59290 38850 26260 25560 24330 91290 64710 77570 33480 27750 87960 26440 63580 41610 65100 62130 73320 24060 25010 30660 54680 37100 33720 23760 36930 28090 56270 36870 35030 25030 14530 95710 75320 31320 24630 34000 34640 105600 84640 80860 102400 67460 40610 31250 34340 38170 22920 34080 39800 11330 27590 33900 24220 52690 27890 41320 59610 105900 120500 32320 43590 97390 31190 49410 80690 28500 28530 35360 31560 50310 31450 26580 54990
2022-03-01 56370 58650 16070 26970 34630 27190 47580 46300 17190 74610 40600 37400 36140 56980 20890 64490 111800 80480 21370 57710 48270 34720 50260 55290 114000 72710 318300 31690 52570 43610 19430 23180 87350 18200 112600 35830 158900 41890 31610 93210 23190 38680 82140 143100 32570 94770 29140 28970 32460 30530 60180 48310 60440 35440 62360 30380 38930 96160 30780 44680 26850 41300 82980 11670 54220 53160 30060 43820 110300 103000 29050 29070 26590 36640 141600 15320 54620 3395 24550 20030 24240 122500 18730 161300 100700 14200 35250 110700 44410 33590 35580 24190 22720 75940 16280 55790 95920 83090 29020 98410 33110 44100 107500 36290 21570 33230 33330 29720 42170 31200 27160 24810 30770 90140 35890 54480 27810 37820 11980 42290 88020 38950 24280 32400 34330 46440 28570 26330 37180 99900 36390 27980 19660 22480 61720 35850 192700 36720 21940 32920 26540 80180 39380 24700 80680 43470 22560 56100 26730 74490 28670 44830 72730 27160 31080 24750 32370 80800 43080 32500 25400 45480 90690 32310 36710 85960 46480 26990 22490 36910 13670 32220 64970 39170 30660 36050 80260 51500 124800 53720 99700 39650 245800 111900 24950 84630 30190 28750 47410 157500 69080 49050 16380 16090 177500 33080 82310 14080 26870 18340 63140 18740 22800 41560 52080 41550 48220 26480 85400 23010 18340 19500 40560 39680 33870 94900 36140 99080 41300 61820 36440 22240 27770 46510 35600 29580 112200 45530 18760 54970 67730 18890 29790 71390 91730 37270 100100 41090 18080 73730 3432 45210 23870 28710 35440 66210 72610 60550 24300 46460 50290 92340 42920 25550 45400 57030 66630 19060 57310 13180 71480 24760 22360 21220 83580 34140 24810 35620 30210 9871 11660 87700 102600 26450 23200 31240 86040 25570 33210 166100 4209 79470 47870 64580 35020 28330 20400 41840 31220 80800 19000 23520 37630 23170 101200 32880 25600 37390 34770 38210 32110 49260 70540 52980 90760 31380 44420 59340 38900 26300 25620 24780 91430 64800 77720 33620 27830 88060 26560 63740 41710 65180 62350 73430 24100 25080 30840 54790 37210 33810 23870 37030 28150 56380 36990 35130 25050 14610 95940 75440 31420 24720 34060 34780 105800 84820 81050 102700 67600 40740 31320 34500 38290 22970 34170 39980 11400 27920 33990 24350 53610 28040 41460 59770 106000 120800 32510 43730 97550 31300 49670 80800 28580 28630 35420 31660 50460 31510 26650 55140
2022-03-02 56880 59320 16110 27040 34700 27410 47840 46570 17310 74890 40710 37480 36270 57170 20950 64550 112000 80530 21410 57790 48420 34790 50390 55400 114500 72810 318600 31740 52610 43660 19460 23230 87450 18250 112900 35900 159000 41970 31700 93370 23240 38730 82410 143400 32680 94960 29190 29040 32530 30560 60280 48390 60530 35540 62500 30420 39010 96250 30850 44750 26900 41480 83170 11720 54310 53270 30150 43960 110500 103200 29100 29180 26650 36690 142600 15420 54760 3410 24590 20090 24280 122800 18800 161500 101000 14230 35320 110900 44520 33620 35620 24280 22740 76050 16300 55980 96020 83340 29110 98590 33370 44350 107700 36450 21640 33360 33470 29790 42260 31250 27410 24880 30920 90240 35970 54680 27900 37940 12000 42380 88140 38990 24320 32470 34460 46820 28680 26390 37330 100800 36430 28050 19730 22510 61770 35930 193600 36840 21990 32980 26640 80310 39460 24720 80840 43500 22620 56220 26790 74580 28710 44860 72860 27280 31110 24840 32440 80910 43220 32560 25460 45880 90850 32370 36840 86090 46580 27010 22610 37030 13680 32300 65190 39250 30740 36210 80370 51620 125000 53830 99800 39720 246200 112000 25040 84730 30250 28810 47630 157800 69190 49180 16390 16150 177700 33130 82420 14110 26960 18370 63230 18810 22900 41660 52200 41710 48270 26700 85610 23060 18370 19690 40620 39820 33940 95070 36190 99180 41360 62120 36610 22300 27830 46560 35690 29660 112900 45610 18810 55170 67850 18920 29840 71610 91910 37310 100200 41160 18100 73780 3490 45320 23880 28730 35730 66340 72860 60720 24310 46520 50410 92460 42970 25620 45510 57310 66660 19090 57470 13210 71550 24830 22380 21280 83720 34230 24860 35720 30310 9898 11680 87790 102700 26510 23400 31380 86160 25630 33300 166300 4314 79730 48000 64690 35140 28470 20450 41970 31280 80980 19050 23570 37710 23220 101600 33040 25670 37520 34840 38390 32140 49330 70770 53100 90890 31430 44500 59390 38940 26330 25680 24960 91540 64870 77830 33740 27910 88130 26660 63870 41810 65230 62530 73520 24130 25140 30980 54880 37310 33900 23960 37120 28200 56470 37100 35220 25060 14670 96160 75540 31520 24790 34110 34890 105900 84960 81220 102900 67710 40850 31380 34620 38400 23030 34250 40130 11450 28040 34070 24440 53920 28150 41580 59880 106100 121100 32660 43830 97690 31390 49870 80890 28650 28720 35460 31760 50590 31550 26700 55260
2022-03-03 57310 59840 16150 27100 34750 27590 48060 46820 17410 75150 40810 37560 36390 57320 21010 64620 112200 80600 21450 57870 48560 34840 50480 55500 115000 72910 318900 31780 52630 43720 19480 23280 87550 18280 113200 35960 159200 42040 31780 93490 23280 38780 82640 143600 32780 95110 29230 29100 32590 30580 60350 48460 60610 35630 62640 30460 39080 96360 30910 44830 26940 41650 83350 11760 54390 53380 30230 44090 110800 103400 29160 29270 26710 36730 143600 15520 54890 3432 24630 20130 24310 123100 18850 161700 101300 14250 35390 111100 44610 33660 35670 24350 22750 76150 16330 56150 96120 83560 29180 98730 33590 44610 107900 36630 21700 33470 33650 29850 42350 31300 27650 24940 31090 90410 36040 54870 27990 38040 12020 42450 88260 39020 24340 32530 34570 47190 28770 26440 37470 101600 36470 28090 19800 22540 61820 36000 193600 36950 22030 33030 26720 80430 39560 24720 80970 43540 22670 56330 26850 74660 28740 44930 72980 27380 31140 24920 32510 81030 43340 32620 25510 46270 90980 32430 36960 86210 46690 27020 22750 37130 13690 32400 65390 39310 30800 36350 80460 51720 125100 53930 100000 39780 246500 112100 25130 84840 30290 28870 47830 158000 69300 49290 16410 16210 177900 33160 82520 14130 27040 18390 63330 18860 22990 41750 52300 41860 48310 26910 85800 23100 18400 19840 40660 39930 34000 95220 36210 99250 41400 62370 36760 22350 27890 46610 35770 29720 113400 45680 18850 55340 67960 18940 29880 71800 92060 37370 100300 41230 18130 73820 3546 45410 23900 28750 35980 66470 73090 60830 24310 46570 50510 92560 43030 25680 45600 57340 66680 19110 57620 13240 71600 24890 22400 21350 83870 34300 24920 35810 30390 9920 11700 87850 102800 26570 23540 31490 86260 25690 33390 166600 4386 79960 48100 64780 35260 28630 20490 42080 31340 81160 19100 23620 37790 23260 102100 33180 25730 37610 34890 38560 32170 49380 70960 53190 90990 31500 44570 59440 38990 26370 25720 25120 91680 64930 77940 33840 27980 88230 26740 63980 41890 65270 62690 73570 24170 25190 31110 54950 37400 33960 24040 37210 28240 56550 37200 35320 25080 14720 96320 75630 31580 24850 34150 35000 106000 85070 81330 103000 67810 40950 31440 34740 38500 23060 34310 40260 11500 28060 34120 24520 54230 28250 41680 60000 106200 121400 32780 43920 97830 31460 50040 80990 28710 28800 35490 31840 50700 31600 26750 55350
2022-03-04 57680 60290 16180 27160 34810 27790 48270 47070 17540 75400 40900 37630 36500 57470 21040 64680 112400 80640 21490 57950 48690 34900 50570 55590 115400 73010 319300 31830 52660 43780 19500 23320 87640 18310 113600 36030 159300 42090 31860 93610 23310 38810 82850 143800 32880 95260 29280 29140 32640 30590 60410 48520 60690 35690 62750 30510 39140 96430 30970 44880 26980 41810 83520 11790 54480 53460 30310 44210 111000 103600 29210 29360 26760 36790 144400 15650 55020 3456 24660 20180 24350 123500 18910 161900 101500 14280 35450 111200 44680 33700 35720 24420 22760 76240 16350 56320 96210 83770 29260 98830 33800 44880 108100 36830 21770 33580 33860 29910 42420 31350 27880 25010 31290 90520 36110 55010 28070 38130 12050 42520 88360 39050 24360 32590 34670 47550 28860 26520 37600 102400 36500 28150 19860 22570 61870 36070 194300 37050 22080 33090 26800 80520 39640 24750 81110 43600 22730 56430 26900 74770 28770 44970 73070 27480 31180 25000 32540 81130 43460 32690 25550 46690 91100 32480 37080 86330 46760 27030 22900 37220 13700 32500 65530 39370 30870 36480 80510 51810 125200 54020 100100 39830 246800 112200 25210 84930 30340 28920 48030 158200 69400 49400 16430 16270 178000 33200 82620 14160 27120 18410 63360 18910 23070 41840 52390 42000 48350 27090 85980 23130 18420 19980 40700 40020 34050 95370 36250 99330 41440 62610 36980 22390 27940 46660 35840 29790 113900 45750 18890 55510 68050 18970 29930 71980 92180 37460 100400 41300 18150 73890 3603 45510 23910 28770 36210 66590 73300 60940 24310 46620 50620 92670 43070 25740 45680 57540 66690 19130 57770 13270 71640 24930 22410 21410 83980 34350 24970 35890 30470 9942 11720 87940 102900 26620 23690 31610 86360 25740 33480 166800 4456 80190 48190 64870 35370 28790 20530 42180 31390 81330 19140 23650 37860 23300 102700 33310 25780 37710 34940 38710 32220 49430 71150 53270 91060 31560 44660 59480 39040 26410 25770 25260 91780 64990 78030 33920 28060 88310 26820 64090 41980 65320 62850 73670 24200 25230 31230 55030 37490 34030 24130 37290 28280 56620 37300 35380 25090 14770 96460 75710 31650 24900 34170 35110 106100 85180 81440 103100 67900 41060 31490 34850 38570 23120 34370 40390 11550 28150 34180 24600 54540 28340 41770 60080 106200 121700 32900 44000 97920 31540 50190 81080 28780 28880 35520 31910 50810 31630 26810 55450
2022-03-05 57970 60730 16210 27220 34860 27930 48470 47310 17630 75640 41000 37690 36590 57600 21070 64720 112500 80670 21520 58030 48810 34950 50640 55660 115800 73080 319400 31870 52670 43810 19520 23360 87730 18330 113900 36070 159400 42130 31940 93700 23340 38840 82980 143900 32980 95380 29300 29190 32680 30600 60460 48570 60760 35740 62820 30530 39210 96450 31030 44940 27010 41960 83690 11820 54520 53560 30390 44320 111100 103800 29260 29450 26820 36820 145000 15720 55150 3485 24690 20220 24380 123800 18970 162100 101700 14310 35520 111400 44750 33730 35760 24490 22760 76320 16350 56480 96300 83980 29320 98910 33940 45010 108200 36950 21830 33690 33990 29970 42480 31400 28060 25060 31420 90590 36180 55120 28150 38190 12070 42590 88450 39070 24370 32650 34770 47820 28940 26550 37720 102900 36530 28200 19910 22600 61880 36140 195000 37150 22120 33140 26870 80600 39690 24750 81230 43630 22780 56500 26940 74830 28800 44970 73160 27560 31210 25080 32580 81210 43570 32750 25580 46990 91200 32540 37200 86410 46820 27040 23000 37320 13710 32530 65630 39400 30930 36610 80540 51890 125300 54100 100100 39880 247000 112300 25290 84980 30370 28970 48230 158300 69490 49500 16440 16330 178000 33220 82690 14180 27190 18420 63390 18950 23160 41920 52470 42140 48390 27200 86150 23170 18430 20110 40740 40080 34070 95510 36260 99380 41480 62840 37110 22440 27990 46690 35890 29850 114400 45810 18930 55670 68100 18990 29970 72150 92300 37510 100500 41360 18170 73920 3660 45560 23910 28770 36380 66660 73500 61020 24320 46660 50690 92750 43090 25790 45750 57760 66710 19150 57910 13290 71670 24970 22430 21460 84050 34390 25030 35970 30540 9962 11740 87970 102900 26670 23790 31710 86430 25790 33560 166900 4511 80390 48250 64920 35470 28900 20570 42280 31440 81500 19190 23680 37920 23340 103100 33430 25830 37790 34980 38860 32230 49460 71320 53320 91100 31610 44720 59500 39080 26430 25800 25360 91830 65050 78120 33990 28130 88370 26900 64180 42060 65350 63000 73720 24220 25280 31340 55080 37580 34090 24210 37370 28310 56680 37390 35430 25100 14820 96550 75790 31690 24960 34190 35210 106200 85260 81530 103200 67980 41150 31540 34960 38640 23150 34420 40510 11590 28260 34210 24660 54710 28430 41820 60140 106300 121900 33010 44070 97980 31610 50330 81130 28840 28960 35550 31960 50920 31670 26850 55510
2022-03-06 57970 60770 16240 27270 34940 27980 48660 47540 17690 75870 41090 37760 36690 57730 21130 64840 112700 80840 21560 58100 48930 35000 50790 55800 116200 73240 320000 31910 52770 43890 19530 23400 87810 18370 114100 36170 159700 42250 32010 93910 23400 38870 83180 144300 33080 95630 29370 29240 32760 30650 60570 48620 60830 35850 62960 30600 39270 96510 31090 44960 27060 42120 83860 11840 54570 53690 30470 44430 111300 103900 29320 29540 26870 36890 145000 15740 55270 3516 24710 20260 24410 124100 19020 162400 101900 14340 35590 111600 44860 33790 35820 24550 22760 76520 16400 56640 96390 84170 29390 99130 33940 45010 108400 36990 21880 33800 34040 30020 42590 31450 28140 25120 31450 90810 36250 55270 28230 38260 12090 42710 88640 39150 24450 32710 34860 47910 29030 26620 37840 102900 36570 28300 19970 22620 61990 36200 195700 37240 22160 33190 26940 80780 39790 24760 81360 43710 22830 56630 27000 74960 28870 45070 73330 27640 31240 25150 32670 81380 43680 32810 25620 47110 91420 32590 37310 86600 46950 27090 23020 37410 13720 32600 65760 39480 30990 36730 80740 52030 125600 54170 100300 39970 247500 112500 25360 85130 30430 29020 48410 158600 69580 49600 16500 16380 178400 33290 82910 14200 27260 18430 63530 19020 23240 42000 52560 42270 48420 27230 86310 23210 18440 20120 40770 40210 34140 95640 36340 99480 41510 63060 37120 22490 28050 46780 35970 29920 114900 45880 18960 55820 68250 19020 30020 72320 92530 37610 100700 41420 18190 74030 3717 45700 23910 28810 36380 66830 73700 61160 24320 46750 50820 92940 43160 25850 45870 57990 66720 19170 58040 13320 71780 25020 22460 21520 84180 34490 25080 36050 30610 9981 11760 88140 103100 26720 23810 31800 86560 25850 33640 167200 4535 80580 48340 65040 35570 28900 20600 42380 31490 81670 19230 23750 37990 23380 103100 33550 25890 37890 35040 39000 32300 49560 71490 53440 91260 31690 44840 59620 39130 26490 25870 25370 92010 65180 78200 34080 28200 88550 26970 64330 42140 65390 63150 73850 24270 25330 31450 55230 37660 34170 24290 37450 28390 56800 37490 35540 25110 14860 96760 75930 31810 25030 34220 35310 106400 85430 81720 103400 68110 41250 31590 35060 38770 23210 34500 40630 11630 28370 34270 24730 54730 28510 41970 60250 106500 122200 33110 44200 98240 31680 50470 81300 28900 29030 35580 32060 51020 31730 26900 55670

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-28 to 2022-03-06

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-02-27 54364 56361 16002 26837 34452 26414 47072 45736 16865 74051 40406 37234 35862 56604 20725 64295 111227 80288 21298 57552 47968 34598 49971 54957 113013 72435 317226 31593 52460 43463 19366 23072 87166 18103 111824 35612 158364 41684 31424 92778 23076 38577 81298 142259 32354 94251 29018 28768 32265 30430 59912 48155 60259 35128 61965 30271 38800 95761 30646 44413 26710 40928 82621 11576 53923 52831 29883 43558 109794 102649 28929 28865 26475 36523 137703 14959 54335 3359 24467 19932 24164 121758 18614 160780 100115 14141 35115 110222 44133 33477 35472 24022 22695 75581 16234 55388 95731 82631 28730 97859 32127 43035 106951 35649 21432 32985 32826 29605 41935 31100 26383 24675 30207 89870 35732 53903 27632 37461 11925 42002 87665 38861 24159 32265 34089 45133 28363 26124 36868 96574 36306 27814 19523 22429 61574 35681 189293 36491 21851 32799 26348 79828 39092 24657 80366 43368 22434 55800 26534 74224 28584 44694 72379 26903 31007 24576 32171 80462 42817 32379 25291 44323 90237 32190 36465 85554 46201 26927 22019 36697 13638 31927 64293 39001 30518 35738 79933 51193 124429 53474 99227 39480 244884 111521 24772 84301 30023 28631 46965 157024 68852 48798 16346 15957 177008 32941 81936 14035 26699 18294 62890 18591 22603 41339 51854 41219 48139 25652 84994 22930 18234 18856 40438 39233 33646 94559 36022 98807 41190 61228 35860 22144 27656 46338 35380 29436 110892 45394 18684 54561 67488 18830 29694 70976 91233 37153 99612 40943 18028 73572 3313 44909 23811 28653 34319 65836 72103 60067 24290 46304 49927 91993 42777 25416 45106 56015 66581 18996 57011 13118 71265 24587 22304 21093 83101 33805 24701 35414 30033 9822 11628 87467 102269 26329 22521 30975 85733 25450 33014 165422 3822 78955 47427 64248 34778 27727 20310 41583 31109 80447 18909 23377 37480 23093 99630 32560 25461 37046 34586 37852 32038 49092 70093 52646 90402 31171 44153 59245 38815 26185 25482 24097 91130 64608 77500 33312 27682 87888 26374 63365 41533 65032 61987 73160 24011 24930 30551 54537 37017 33608 23684 36858 28019 56119 36783 34907 25016 14481 95411 75173 31173 24505 33934 34543 105399 84406 80642 102137 67271 40517 31205 34245 38012 22854 33980 39697 11283 27436 33812 24152 52356 27803 41088 59429 105790 120254 32223 43453 97228 31123 49291 80550 28440 28455 35329 31381 50217 31376 26500 54803
2022-02-28 54630 56790 16060 26870 34520 26550 47270 45970 16960 74250 40520 37290 35950 56740 20780 64380 111500 80400 21330 57640 48090 34640 50080 55060 113400 72550 317600 31630 52520 43520 19380 23100 87240 18140 112100 35680 158500 41780 31510 92950 23120 38610 81570 142600 32440 94450 29070 28840 32330 30470 59980 48190 60330 35230 62120 30310 38910 95890 30690 44480 26740 41090 82800 11600 54040 52950 29970 43670 110000 102800 28970 28950 26530 36570 138400 15010 54470 3393 24500 19970 24210 122100 18670 161000 100300 14170 35170 110400 44250 33520 35520 24070 22710 75730 16270 55550 95840 82870 28820 98010 32250 43150 107200 35780 21490 33090 32950 29690 42030 31160 26500 24730 30340 90060 35790 54070 27710 37550 11940 42120 87810 38920 24200 32320 34190 45370 28440 26210 36970 97000 36340 27900 19580 22460 61650 35740 189900 36590 21890 32840 26400 79980 39210 24680 80530 43430 22480 55930 26590 74350 28630 44800 72510 26980 31030 24650 32260 80610 42890 32450 25340 44660 90400 32230 36570 85690 46340 26960 22090 36780 13650 32040 64430 39100 30570 35840 80090 51320 124600 53540 99400 39550 245300 111700 24860 84460 30080 28690 47160 157200 68950 48890 16390 16010 177200 33000 82110 14060 26760 18310 63040 18640 22680 41430 51980 41360 48180 25780 85170 22990 18270 18960 40470 39380 33720 94690 36080 98940 41220 61390 36000 22180 27690 46410 35460 29500 111200 45440 18740 54710 67610 18850 29730 71140 91430 37230 99800 41000 18050 73620 3364 45000 23860 28680 34470 65990 72250 60210 24310 46360 50040 92120 42810 25460 45190 56200 66630 19020 57130 13140 71330 24650 22330 21160 83230 33910 24760 35490 30100 9841 11650 87570 102400 26370 22620 31060 85860 25490 33070 165700 3892 79130 47510 64340 34890 27850 20340 41700 31160 80650 18950 23440 37560 23140 99900 32640 25510 37160 34630 37980 32080 49150 70240 52760 90580 31240 44250 59310 38880 26230 25530 24230 91270 64670 77590 33400 27760 87980 26430 63500 41600 65080 62100 73240 24040 24990 30650 54630 37090 33700 23760 36950 28080 56220 36870 34990 25030 14510 95590 75270 31270 24570 33990 34630 105500 84520 80790 102400 67370 40600 31250 34350 38130 22900 34040 39810 11310 27540 33860 24210 52530 27900 41250 59560 105900 120500 32310 43540 97380 31190 49420 80640 28510 28560 35360 31490 50300 31430 26560 54920
2022-03-01 55350 57290 16120 26930 34590 26950 47470 46210 17180 74460 40650 37350 36040 56880 20840 64470 111700 80510 21370 57750 48220 34690 50180 55200 113800 72660 318000 31680 52560 43580 19410 23140 87320 18180 112400 35760 158700 41870 31600 93130 23160 38650 81810 143000 32540 94680 29120 28900 32400 30490 60060 48230 60390 35360 62290 30360 39040 96010 30740 44530 26790 41260 82960 11640 54130 53060 30060 43800 110200 103000 29020 29060 26600 36620 140500 15230 54610 3417 24540 20010 24260 122400 18720 161200 100500 14190 35240 110600 44360 33560 35590 24140 22740 75860 16320 55740 95940 83110 28900 98150 32520 43940 107400 36310 21550 33200 33660 29760 42110 31210 26800 24800 30820 90210 35860 54230 27800 37650 11970 42230 87960 38990 24260 32380 34300 46010 28520 26280 37080 98200 36370 27970 19640 22490 61750 35810 194200 36710 21930 32890 26470 80140 39320 24700 80720 43490 22530 56070 26650 74520 28670 44910 72660 27060 31060 24750 32340 80710 42980 32520 25380 45190 90550 32270 36690 85830 46450 26980 22470 36870 13660 32160 64600 39190 30640 35960 80240 51430 124700 53620 99600 39630 245600 111800 24940 84630 30140 28750 47360 157400 69060 49000 16420 16070 177400 33050 82270 14100 26830 18320 63160 18710 22760 41550 52140 41500 48240 26170 85330 23050 18290 19100 40510 39550 33790 94820 36150 99090 41250 61560 36590 22210 27750 46460 35540 29570 113500 45530 18810 54860 67740 18880 29780 71310 91610 37330 99900 41060 18070 73690 3414 45100 23890 28690 34850 66120 72410 60360 24330 46420 50190 92250 42850 25510 45320 57440 66680 19040 57260 13170 71390 24710 22350 21240 83330 33990 24830 35570 30190 9870 11680 87680 102500 26420 22870 31180 85980 25530 33140 165900 3967 79330 47590 64450 35010 28250 20390 41830 31230 80850 19010 23490 37640 23180 101500 32750 25570 37260 34670 38120 32120 49220 70440 52890 90800 31310 44340 59380 38960 26260 25580 24580 91400 64730 77710 33490 27850 88070 26500 63640 41680 65140 62240 73320 24070 25040 30740 54720 37170 33780 23840 37040 28150 56310 36950 35080 25050 14540 95800 75370 31350 24640 34030 34720 105700 84620 80960 102600 67470 40700 31320 34450 38240 22960 34130 39950 11350 28100 33920 24250 53350 27990 41380 59700 106000 120900 32400 43660 97540 31260 49570 80720 28580 28670 35400 31590 50400 31470 26620 55040
2022-03-02 55620 57690 16180 26980 34650 27090 47670 46440 17270 74680 40780 37410 36130 57020 20900 64530 111900 80600 21400 57860 48330 34740 50290 55300 114100 72760 318300 31720 52610 43640 19430 23170 87400 18220 112600 35830 158900 41960 31690 93300 23210 38680 82020 143300 32640 94860 29170 28950 32460 30520 60140 48260 60450 35470 62440 30400 39140 96110 30790 44570 26830 41410 83130 11680 54220 53160 30150 43920 110300 103200 29070 29140 26660 36670 141100 15290 54740 3445 24570 20050 24310 122700 18780 161400 100600 14220 35310 110800 44450 33600 35630 24200 22760 75980 16360 55910 96050 83360 28980 98280 32640 44120 107600 36440 21600 33310 33760 29830 42190 31270 26910 24850 30940 90360 35930 54380 27880 37740 11990 42320 88090 39060 24310 32430 34390 46230 28600 26340 37180 98600 36400 28050 19700 22520 61840 35870 195100 36800 21980 32940 26540 80280 39420 24720 80910 43550 22580 56180 26700 74650 28720 44990 72790 27140 31090 24830 32410 80820 43070 32590 25430 45500 90700 32320 36810 85960 46560 27000 22560 36950 13670 32260 64760 39280 30700 36060 80380 51540 124900 53700 99800 39700 245900 111900 25010 84780 30190 28800 47550 157700 69140 49110 16450 16130 177600 33100 82400 14130 26900 18340 63290 18770 22850 41650 52280 41640 48300 26280 85490 23110 18320 19210 40550 39690 33850 94940 36210 99230 41280 61730 36720 22240 27800 46520 35630 29630 114000 45590 18870 55010 67880 18900 29830 71480 91780 37430 100100 41130 18090 73760 3464 45200 23930 28720 35020 66240 72580 60500 24350 46470 50280 92360 42880 25560 45420 57690 66720 19070 57380 13190 71450 24770 22380 21310 83420 34060 24880 35640 30260 9896 11700 87780 102600 26470 22980 31280 86100 25580 33220 166100 4033 79530 47680 64560 35130 28370 20430 41960 31290 81060 19060 23550 37720 23230 101800 32850 25630 37370 34720 38260 32170 49280 70610 53000 91000 31360 44420 59460 39030 26300 25630 24690 91520 64790 77830 33580 27940 88160 26560 63750 41760 65190 62370 73400 24110 25090 30830 54810 37250 33870 23920 37130 28200 56400 37040 35150 25070 14570 96000 75460 31440 24700 34070 34810 105800 84720 81120 102800 67550 40790 31380 34560 38360 23020 34200 40070 11390 28210 33970 24300 53540 28090 41500 59820 106100 121200 32490 43750 97700 31340 49700 80810 28660 28770 35420 31680 50510 31520 26670 55160
2022-03-03 55850 58060 16230 27030 34720 27210 47850 46630 17360 74900 40900 37460 36210 57140 20950 64610 112000 80700 21430 57960 48440 34790 50390 55390 114500 72870 318600 31770 52650 43690 19440 23200 87480 18250 112900 35900 159000 42040 31780 93440 23250 38710 82220 143600 32740 95020 29220 28990 32520 30540 60200 48300 60510 35570 62580 30450 39230 96230 30840 44620 26870 41570 83300 11710 54290 53260 30240 44030 110600 103300 29110 29220 26720 36700 141800 15350 54860 3475 24600 20090 24360 123000 18830 161600 100800 14240 35370 111000 44540 33640 35680 24260 22780 76090 16400 56080 96140 83580 29050 98410 32750 44270 107800 36570 21650 33420 33900 29900 42270 31330 27030 24900 31070 90530 35990 54530 27960 37830 12010 42400 88210 39110 24340 32480 34480 46460 28670 26400 37280 99000 36430 28110 19750 22550 61910 35930 195400 36890 22030 32980 26590 80410 39510 24740 81080 43600 22620 56290 26750 74790 28760 45080 72910 27210 31120 24910 32490 80930 43160 32660 25480 45810 90840 32370 36930 86090 46670 27020 22640 37040 13680 32360 64910 39360 30760 36170 80520 51630 125000 53760 100000 39760 246300 112000 25080 84930 30240 28850 47740 157900 69230 49210 16480 16180 177800 33130 82510 14160 26960 18350 63410 18830 22930 41750 52410 41770 48350 26410 85650 23160 18350 19320 40580 39810 33910 95070 36260 99350 41310 61890 36880 22280 27850 46570 35700 29690 114300 45650 18930 55160 68000 18930 29870 71640 91930 37520 100200 41180 18110 73810 3514 45300 23960 28740 35180 66360 72740 60620 24370 46530 50350 92470 42920 25610 45510 57810 66770 19090 57510 13220 71520 24830 22400 21370 83510 34140 24930 35690 30320 9915 11720 87870 102700 26520 23060 31380 86210 25620 33290 166400 4093 79710 47750 64650 35230 28490 20470 42080 31330 81260 19110 23600 37800 23270 102100 32940 25680 37460 34760 38390 32220 49330 70750 53090 91170 31420 44510 59540 39100 26340 25680 24820 91640 64860 77920 33670 28030 88260 26620 63860 41830 65230 62510 73470 24140 25140 30920 54890 37320 33940 24000 37210 28250 56480 37120 35240 25090 14600 96170 75550 31520 24750 34110 34900 105900 84820 81240 103100 67650 40880 31420 34660 38460 23050 34270 40190 11420 28270 34020 24340 53760 28170 41620 59930 106200 121500 32570 43840 97850 31400 49810 80890 28730 28870 35440 31760 50610 31560 26730 55270
2022-03-04 56130 58390 16280 27070 34780 27370 48040 46810 17470 75110 41010 37520 36280 57250 20990 64670 112200 80780 21470 58040 48540 34840 50490 55470 114900 72950 319000 31810 52690 43740 19460 23230 87540 18280 113100 35960 159200 42110 31850 93560 23280 38730 82420 143900 32830 95170 29270 29030 32570 30560 60240 48320 60560 35640 62680 30490 39310 96320 30890 44650 26900 41720 83440 11740 54380 53340 30340 44130 110800 103500 29160 29290 26780 36760 142500 15440 54960 3505 24630 20130 24400 123300 18890 161800 100900 14270 35440 111200 44620 33670 35730 24300 22800 76200 16430 56240 96230 83770 29120 98540 32890 44590 107900 36740 21710 33510 34030 29950 42340 31380 27170 24950 31230 90670 36040 54640 28040 37890 12040 42470 88310 39170 24380 32540 34550 46700 28740 26460 37380 99400 36470 28170 19810 22580 61990 35980 195900 36960 22070 33030 26650 80510 39590 24770 81230 43660 22670 56380 26800 74900 28790 45150 73000 27270 31150 24970 32550 81010 43250 32730 25520 46170 90950 32410 37040 86190 46750 27040 22740 37110 13700 32450 65050 39420 30820 36270 80640 51710 125100 53830 100200 39810 246600 112100 25150 85060 30290 28900 47920 158100 69310 49290 16510 16220 178000 33170 82620 14180 27030 18360 63480 18880 23000 41830 52550 41900 48400 26530 85810 23210 18370 19440 40610 39910 33950 95190 36320 99470 41340 62050 37000 22320 27890 46610 35770 29740 114600 45700 18990 55300 68100 18950 29910 71770 92060 37610 100300 41230 18130 73870 3564 45400 23980 28750 35360 66450 72890 60720 24390 46570 50440 92560 42960 25660 45590 57980 66810 19110 57630 13240 71580 24880 22410 21430 83590 34200 24970 35740 30380 9932 11740 87970 102700 26570 23170 31470 86300 25660 33360 166600 4153 79890 47800 64740 35340 28620 20490 42190 31380 81440 19160 23630 37870 23310 102600 33020 25740 37530 34800 38520 32260 49380 70870 53180 91310 31480 44580 59590 39170 26370 25720 24940 91730 64930 78030 33750 28120 88340 26670 63940 41910 65290 62650 73540 24170 25180 30990 54980 37390 34010 24080 37280 28290 56550 37200 35300 25110 14630 96310 75630 31570 24800 34140 34990 106000 84900 81340 103300 67730 40970 31460 34750 38530 23110 34320 40290 11460 28360 34070 24380 54010 28260 41730 60020 106300 121800 32640 43900 97980 31450 49920 80960 28790 28950 35470 31840 50690 31600 26780 55360
2022-03-05 56330 58710 16340 27120 34850 27500 48230 46970 17570 75340 41130 37570 36360 57360 21030 64730 112400 80870 21500 58140 48640 34890 50590 55550 115200 73060 319300 31850 52720 43790 19480 23260 87610 18310 113400 36020 159300 42190 31920 93700 23320 38760 82590 144100 32930 95330 29310 29070 32630 30580 60300 48350 60620 35710 62780 30520 39390 96410 30940 44690 26940 41880 83590 11760 54450 53440 30430 44250 111000 103700 29210 29360 26840 36810 143000 15490 55070 3539 24650 20170 24440 123500 18940 162000 101100 14290 35510 111300 44690 33710 35770 24360 22820 76310 16460 56400 96330 83970 29180 98640 33020 44810 108100 36870 21760 33590 34120 30010 42410 31430 27270 24990 31340 90800 36100 54770 28120 37960 12060 42550 88410 39220 24410 32590 34630 46860 28810 26510 37480 99800 36500 28230 19870 22610 62050 36040 196400 37040 22120 33070 26710 80630 39690 24790 81370 43720 22710 56460 26840 75020 28830 45220 73100 27350 31180 25050 32610 81130 43350 32790 25550 46470 91080 32460 37160 86310 46840 27060 22800 37180 13710 32520 65210 39470 30880 36360 80740 51800 125200 53900 100300 39860 246800 112200 25210 85210 30320 28950 48110 158300 69380 49390 16550 16270 178100 33200 82750 14200 27090 18370 63570 18930 23060 41930 52680 42040 48460 26620 85930 23270 18380 19550 40640 40010 34000 95320 36360 99580 41370 62210 37130 22350 27940 46660 35850 29800 114900 45760 19050 55450 68190 18970 29940 71930 92210 37710 100400 41290 18150 73920 3610 45510 24000 28770 35520 66550 73060 60850 24400 46620 50520 92680 43000 25710 45680 58140 66850 19130 57760 13260 71630 24930 22440 21480 83660 34260 25020 35790 30450 9948 11760 88060 102800 26620 23240 31560 86400 25700 33420 166800 4213 80060 47860 64830 35430 28720 20520 42290 31430 81630 19200 23680 37930 23340 103000 33120 25790 37620 34840 38660 32310 49430 71000 53280 91470 31530 44650 59670 39240 26410 25760 25030 91810 65000 78120 33830 28210 88440 26720 64050 41970 65320 62790 73610 24190 25220 31060 55080 37460 34080 24170 37350 28330 56630 37280 35370 25130 14660 96440 75710 31640 24850 34170 35070 106100 84990 81460 103500 67810 41060 31510 34840 38620 23140 34370 40400 11490 28430 34110 24410 54140 28330 41840 60120 106400 122100 32710 43990 98120 31510 50040 81030 28860 29040 35490 31900 50770 31640 26820 55450
2022-03-06 56550 59040 16390 27170 34910 27600 48410 47180 17630 75560 41240 37630 36440 57480 21080 64820 112600 80990 21540 58240 48740 34940 50700 55650 115600 73180 319600 31900 52770 43850 19490 23290 87680 18340 113600 36090 159400 42280 32010 93850 23370 38780 82780 144500 33030 95540 29360 29120 32700 30610 60360 48380 60670 35810 62900 30570 39490 96490 30990 44720 26980 42030 83770 11790 54530 53550 30530 44370 111200 103800 29260 29430 26890 36850 143400 15550 55190 3573 24670 20220 24490 123800 19000 162200 101200 14320 35580 111600 44770 33740 35830 24420 22830 76430 16500 56560 96430 84180 29260 98780 33110 44950 108300 36960 21810 33690 34260 30070 42490 31490 27370 25040 31470 90950 36160 54900 28190 38040 12080 42670 88550 39300 24470 32640 34700 47030 28890 26570 37580 100100 36520 28300 19920 22640 62130 36100 197000 37130 22170 33110 26770 80770 39800 24800 81520 43770 22750 56550 26900 75150 28880 45310 73210 27420 31220 25130 32690 81250 43450 32860 25590 46670 91230 32510 37280 86450 46950 27080 22930 37260 13720 32610 65350 39530 30940 36460 80870 51910 125400 53970 100500 39920 247100 112300 25270 85360 30370 29000 48300 158500 69460 49490 16590 16310 178300 33250 82900 14230 27160 18380 63690 19000 23140 42030 52810 42170 48510 26720 86080 23330 18400 19630 40670 40130 34060 95430 36410 99710 41390 62370 37180 22390 27990 46710 35930 29860 115300 45810 19110 55580 68300 18990 29980 72070 92380 37830 100500 41350 18170 73990 3666 45610 24010 28790 35660 66670 73200 60980 24410 46670 50590 92820 43040 25760 45790 58350 66890 19150 57900 13290 71700 24980 22460 21550 83740 34330 25070 35850 30500 9971 11790 88160 102900 26660 23330 31650 86520 25750 33500 167000 4274 80250 47920 64930 35540 28810 20540 42410 31470 81820 19250 23730 38010 23380 103300 33220 25840 37710 34890 38790 32360 49490 71120 53390 91640 31600 44750 59750 39320 26450 25820 25110 91930 65080 78240 33920 28300 88560 26770 64160 42040 65360 62930 73690 24220 25270 31140 55160 37530 34150 24250 37430 28390 56720 37360 35440 25140 14690 96620 75810 31740 24920 34200 35160 106200 85080 81610 103800 67910 41140 31560 34940 38740 23190 34440 40510 11520 28550 34170 24450 54440 28410 41960 60230 106500 122400 32790 44080 98280 31570 50150 81120 28920 29130 35500 31980 50860 31680 26870 55560

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.