COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-03-02 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-03-02

Slideshow of forecasts 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how we lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-03-02

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-272022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-02-062021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-02-062021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Peak daily increment 3839 5400 543 1126 1275 1518 804 437 770 1774 1382 1599 1253 2241 604 3477 4581 3961 989 2556 1660 1411 1658 2285 1199 3307 17521 1550 3317 2250 319 962 4696 641 4741 1427 8814 1557 928 4180 916 508 3217 6862 1115 3849 1176 1160 1302 2002 2935 611 2895 1143 2214 1302 1418 1131 1362 528 1222 456 3005 192 2422 2091 1033 1466 3801 4793 1173 962 949 1524 7655 692 1939 124 403 774 995 3960 513 7900 4326 551 1426 5019 1559 1550 1634 862 267 3466 481 896 4767 2335 1159 4687 2016 1876 4677 1737 663 1048 1211 885 1468 1093 1549 891 1504 3182 1563 1625 976 1274 417 1353 3625 1652 982 1189 1007 2281 930 917 560 6055 482 1022 779 884 2871 1519 5492 1464 847 1510 1137 3360 1261 323 3318 2105 817 2104 1115 3254 1188 1498 3091 867 1796 839 1224 4135 1707 1188 1044 2472 3914 1327 1158 3872 1474 1689 890 1209 234 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 3609 2021 6117 3336 4514 1732 11029 6320 803 3519 1176 1238 694 9205 3848 1963 580 540 10177 1515 3625 516 696 246 2554 503 650 1251 1058 648 2802 1344 3381 825 189 1526 532 1263 1329 4887 1519 5335 518 1141 1552 659 963 1941 1111 1060 2890 1824 525 1868 2931 835 1179 2965 3811 1403 5264 1790 839 4269 265 1562 291 1808 2208 3085 2613 2589 315 2466 2199 4529 2322 1065 1632 1562 1026 776 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 4307 1311 892 1297 1206 259 344 4748 5886 951 1363 1073 4438 857 1175 8405 649 3240 2347 2862 1130 1409 768 1599 1218 2982 587 863 1470 763 4069 1059 875 1101 1609 1007 1377 2510 3022 2379 4073 1253 1583 3012 1783 1077 992 1255 3842 3631 3812 1010 929 4460 904 2652 1725 890 2290 3757 968 844 990 2555 1394 1055 812 1551 1025 2766 1234 1351 341 431 5344 3306 1034 878 422 1143 5038 4407 3811 4283 2987 1563 1301 1098 1167 804 1352 1077 245 753 1620 922 2520 862 1416 1659 5841 3884 989 1539 4859 1307 1823 4157 1188 796 397 1077 2155 1437 1060 2087
Days since peak 24 24 37 37 37 24 37 65 24 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 64 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 64 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 64 37 37 37 37 37 64 37 63 37 63 37 63 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 24 24 37 24 64 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 63 37 37 63 37 37 37 37 24 24 37 24 37 37 24 37 37 37 24 37 24 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 24 37 37 63 24 64 37 37 37 37 37 8 37 37 37 37 37 37 64 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 24 37 37 37 37 37 37 24 37 64 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 65 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 24 37 37 64 24 63 37 37 37 37 37 65 37 24 37 37 37 37 37 24 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 24 37 64 37 24 37 37 37 62 37 37 37 37 37 37 24 65 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 24 37 37 37 37 37 24 37 37 37 37 24 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 24 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 24 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 63 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 63 37 37 37 37 37 64 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 24 37 37 24 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 64 37 37 37 37 37
Last total 55282 57878 16193 26962 34652 27103 47812 46476 17398 74728 40779 37396 36143 56982 20957 64502 111883 80575 21390 57838 48335 34755 50414 55345 114391 72758 318220 31728 52567 43673 19459 23141 87398 18223 112624 35863 158884 41981 31746 93178 23186 38680 82045 143436 32629 94853 29176 28920 32469 30498 60141 48296 60486 35485 62405 30379 39148 96094 30819 44640 26876 41458 83207 11617 54177 53169 30235 43909 110451 103240 29060 29141 26676 36682 139936 15252 54755 3597 24571 20075 24262 122925 18849 161367 100518 14262 35363 110862 44447 33598 35649 24200 22780 75972 16375 56006 96084 83365 29002 98157 32681 43674 107513 36431 21665 33405 33557 29864 42265 31321 26870 24814 30801 90481 35924 54489 27882 37754 12012 42347 88058 39044 24345 32458 34416 46041 28628 26311 37304 98160 36432 28079 19749 22550 61803 35862 192070 36810 22009 32956 26514 80301 39486 24774 80902 43550 22559 56231 26656 74649 28736 45004 72765 27154 31095 24828 32432 80823 43149 32617 25470 45708 90659 32375 36837 85958 46614 26990 22454 37022 13666 32255 64821 39291 30746 36114 80339 51611 124856 53670 99862 39769 245953 111902 25031 84791 30192 28840 47659 157818 69088 49114 16512 16111 177604 33067 82447 14138 26920 18327 63314 18803 22860 41669 52218 41775 48296 26050 85510 23122 18317 19336 40563 39615 33790 94987 36173 99181 41330 61774 36584 22307 27796 46502 35715 29655 112639 45598 18899 55102 67826 18899 29875 71444 91768 37480 99988 41093 18109 73734 3595 45249 23923 28698 34933 66181 72698 60543 24381 46496 50243 92288 42878 25558 45454 56996 66800 19059 57494 13194 71435 24734 22361 21305 83388 34021 24871 35637 30246 9903 11709 87729 102516 26524 22922 31265 86149 25597 33277 166073 3996 79635 47654 64580 35261 28212 20424 42053 31311 81145 19095 23553 37737 23267 101345 32847 25645 37384 34737 38302 32148 49268 70532 52960 90997 31383 44462 59474 39055 26313 25657 24533 91543 64804 77828 33594 27999 88218 26585 63770 41842 65236 62436 73402 24085 25140 30856 54844 37250 33881 23946 37194 28208 56370 37002 35263 25085 14592 95962 75500 31473 24736 34093 34847 105767 84696 81064 102896 67562 40868 31379 34615 38400 23021 34215 40084 11395 27931 34009 24315 53227 28078 41421 59871 106115 121258 32523 43765 97785 31367 49690 80822 28697 28840 35447 31707 50574 31521 26602 55207
Last daily increment 320 487 62 38 80 226 256 244 172 225 105 49 104 126 78 71 187 115 37 98 140 42 132 131 445 118 314 35 35 74 18 21 64 39 262 76 179 108 104 121 40 28 214 419 99 198 40 58 63 23 84 34 68 112 169 26 124 113 64 61 52 167 213 10 76 108 123 109 215 191 39 82 57 43 741 93 145 75 28 38 31 373 67 204 152 39 96 226 126 45 62 55 34 125 42 198 120 232 93 95 178 218 178 265 67 156 242 102 121 55 168 41 170 218 65 189 72 99 39 125 112 75 65 67 95 290 84 48 129 529 30 86 61 45 92 49 920 101 54 51 55 143 121 28 181 64 36 151 41 151 43 105 118 71 38 76 111 136 103 80 62 434 142 66 125 115 151 27 159 100 10 90 195 84 82 123 126 155 138 61 217 104 333 127 85 165 53 81 222 254 64 120 63 50 190 28 201 29 80 7 139 70 92 102 115 173 37 134 180 50 19 159 34 131 46 146 42 119 35 173 226 57 46 64 108 67 567 71 60 195 117 25 60 184 167 108 125 54 25 47 109 125 29 18 214 130 206 172 30 71 95 86 30 46 117 315 52 16 166 38 45 46 27 73 87 72 39 66 83 27 22 83 66 66 149 84 144 38 92 196 47 195 73 101 161 160 40 137 61 223 77 52 96 50 543 97 63 100 59 124 34 49 168 95 190 74 101 70 86 44 69 134 148 42 104 100 101 94 68 118 103 53 141 77 24 64 104 90 81 101 83 99 66 99 72 118 22 42 170 127 83 83 51 133 111 79 147 267 113 109 64 135 126 66 69 136 43 156 74 60 306 97 91 147 105 343 94 94 191 81 115 86 86 135 37 121 121 51 27 120
Last week 1541 2582 296 186 339 1121 1258 1287 860 1188 625 255 416 674 321 318 988 470 166 465 614 238 697 587 2407 535 1558 198 184 315 132 114 376 185 1327 374 804 454 515 638 197 142 1167 1864 456 955 244 234 317 108 347 218 351 541 748 193 551 554 264 339 232 956 916 76 406 556 584 571 1043 974 230 456 348 262 3720 451 652 359 165 209 153 1901 377 963 662 193 394 1040 491 193 282 286 125 645 218 1018 557 1196 426 524 860 1063 940 1252 347 641 1209 425 502 333 811 257 1019 968 310 887 415 438 129 585 628 298 268 334 515 1363 429 313 728 2489 217 437 344 187 356 277 4576 525 254 262 277 699 634 169 822 308 225 663 223 692 233 505 621 413 153 408 428 577 526 399 278 2297 707 293 649 642 618 98 672 482 67 509 784 459 350 591 636 644 693 303 966 435 1707 576 410 797 258 322 1185 1234 352 476 249 280 933 191 780 160 351 50 664 349 420 549 647 939 272 639 814 330 120 795 199 599 224 692 223 591 208 1016 1146 264 237 259 518 345 2845 321 322 874 575 110 282 795 859 503 594 255 117 293 436 579 161 76 986 565 959 700 139 300 541 517 165 222 530 1523 328 95 753 125 278 238 95 336 421 335 284 385 336 114 144 436 400 303 674 498 609 252 413 984 296 1070 340 491 752 781 177 709 325 1155 294 266 387 272 2862 451 307 565 228 754 199 272 723 471 923 342 476 366 399 206 275 685 631 332 521 464 509 546 323 635 454 320 742 365 133 316 492 499 391 438 480 508 301 406 405 566 107 170 840 503 476 365 262 503 541 490 669 1192 486 597 244 572 616 260 364 623 183 760 280 248 1409 490 557 721 503 1655 484 510 892 387 648 446 409 594 176 517 544 233 211 622
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-11-112021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-07-162021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-20 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-06-062021-07-162021-10-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-142021-10-192021-10-102021-08-052021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-10-18 --2021-07-142021-10-18 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012021-07-152021-11-03 --2021-07-14 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-242021-06-29 --2021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302021-06-05 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-07-142021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-06 --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-142021-07-122021-07-142021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-172021-07-14 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-10-142021-09-02 -- --2021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-14 --2021-07-152021-07-162021-07-15 --2021-07-112021-07-162021-07-152021-07-29 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-06-292021-08-182021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-122021-09-15 --2021-07-142021-07-112021-07-15 -- -- --2021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 -- --2021-08-302021-09-29 --2021-10-182021-07-122021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-08-032021-07-152021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-06-29 -- --2021-06-29 --2021-07-15 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192021-06-062021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-09-012021-08-17 -- --2021-07-162021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-17 -- --2021-10-042021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142021-07-13 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-182021-07-152021-06-29 --2021-08-172021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-08-192021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-07-172021-07-142021-07-152021-10-182021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-142021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-162021-07-08
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 260 276 70 139 152 144 287 379 176 943 127 159 126 202 293 107 478 103 176 68 218 621 4 258 94 72 97 74 160 249 177 72 159 115 101 227 67 170 203 269 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 142 21 114 708 607 376 53 101 229 122 140 92 86 64 202 400 269 137 188 133 135 183 122 100 65 157 15 61 22 105 58 110 128 185 88 171 421 67 56 82 274 123 941 95 63 113 163 229 84 156 152 61 65 146 54 151 87 82 90 203 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 247 316 301 117 707 51 213 80 99 120 41 47 448 96 169 40 164 72 72 101 274 115 49 31 184 116 384 105 164 123 94 256 621 176 291 228 77 96 322 87 264 158 255 143 118 343 297 114 289 268 40 140 67 213 75 73 49 116 70 253 94 78 123 96 482 169 277 202 118 49 345 86 85 470 128 68 77 92 106 303 200 152 243 70 131 87 77 91 243 339 240 201 428 57 145 101 329 219 85 143 137 116 92 150 92 78 105 131 134 106 226 286 64 79 352 157 313 195 144 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 99 63 117 120 74 138
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 42 2 28 49 59 18 128 103 28 53 51 54 99 179 71 406 33 65 31 75 124 39 190 42 75 22 83 100 2 100 38 34 44 31 68 97 73 35 58 22 21 92 25 46 68 129 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 64 5 25 227 190 143 16 39 112 49 43 39 41 32 63 142 128 56 26 58 49 49 57 36 30 35 6 25 7 38 23 49 44 80 41 67 199 29 19 32 75 54 199 21 30 40 76 57 27 54 75 27 32 32 18 70 38 41 37 59 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 107 143 74 44 295 20 66 35 43 51 17 14 164 48 77 11 75 30 20 36 58 32 24 2 75 54 120 38 54 61 39 68 157 83 115 88 22 40 111 42 112 50 87 51 19 108 49 51 68 125 18 61 17 69 20 21 17 56 25 104 38 28 40 33 189 80 91 64 40 22 58 34 40 149 59 28 35 35 42 55 94 56 65 34 49 36 27 38 118 78 85 62 96 24 64 24 103 85 30 34 55 35 37 63 23 33 36 51 61 41 72 125 31 36 172 70 94 86 69 36 31 40 47 87 17 37 42 89 24 58 112 316 69 28 31 52 43 35 59

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-03-03 to 2022-03-09

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-03-02 55282 57878 16193 26962 34652 27103 47812 46476 17398 74728 40779 37396 36143 56982 20957 64502 111883 80575 21390 57838 48335 34755 50414 55345 114391 72758 318220 31728 52567 43673 19459 23141 87398 18223 112624 35863 158884 41981 31746 93178 23186 38680 82045 143436 32629 94853 29176 28920 32469 30498 60141 48296 60486 35485 62405 30379 39148 96094 30819 44640 26876 41458 83207 11617 54177 53169 30235 43909 110451 103240 29060 29141 26676 36682 139936 15252 54755 3597 24571 20075 24262 122925 18849 161367 100518 14262 35363 110862 44447 33598 35649 24200 22780 75972 16375 56006 96084 83365 29002 98157 32681 43674 107513 36431 21665 33405 33557 29864 42265 31321 26870 24814 30801 90481 35924 54489 27882 37754 12012 42347 88058 39044 24345 32458 34416 46041 28628 26311 37304 98160 36432 28079 19749 22550 61803 35862 192070 36810 22009 32956 26514 80301 39486 24774 80902 43550 22559 56231 26656 74649 28736 45004 72765 27154 31095 24828 32432 80823 43149 32617 25470 45708 90659 32375 36837 85958 46614 26990 22454 37022 13666 32255 64821 39291 30746 36114 80339 51611 124856 53670 99862 39769 245953 111902 25031 84791 30192 28840 47659 157818 69088 49114 16512 16111 177604 33067 82447 14138 26920 18327 63314 18803 22860 41669 52218 41775 48296 26050 85510 23122 18317 19336 40563 39615 33790 94987 36173 99181 41330 61774 36584 22307 27796 46502 35715 29655 112639 45598 18899 55102 67826 18899 29875 71444 91768 37480 99988 41093 18109 73734 3595 45249 23923 28698 34933 66181 72698 60543 24381 46496 50243 92288 42878 25558 45454 56996 66800 19059 57494 13194 71435 24734 22361 21305 83388 34021 24871 35637 30246 9903 11709 87729 102516 26524 22922 31265 86149 25597 33277 166073 3996 79635 47654 64580 35261 28212 20424 42053 31311 81145 19095 23553 37737 23267 101345 32847 25645 37384 34737 38302 32148 49268 70532 52960 90997 31383 44462 59474 39055 26313 25657 24533 91543 64804 77828 33594 27999 88218 26585 63770 41842 65236 62436 73402 24085 25140 30856 54844 37250 33881 23946 37194 28208 56370 37002 35263 25085 14592 95962 75500 31473 24736 34093 34847 105767 84696 81064 102896 67562 40868 31379 34615 38400 23021 34215 40084 11395 27931 34009 24315 53227 28078 41421 59871 106115 121258 32523 43765 97785 31367 49690 80822 28697 28840 35447 31707 50574 31521 26602 55207
2022-03-03 55560 58290 16270 27010 34730 27280 48020 46680 17490 74900 40890 37450 36200 57110 21030 64580 112100 80680 21420 57920 48390 34800 50530 55460 114800 72870 318600 31770 52610 43740 19480 23170 87490 18260 112900 35950 159100 42090 31840 93350 23240 38710 82310 143700 32730 95090 29230 28970 32530 30530 60210 48320 60550 35680 62590 30400 39270 96170 30870 44740 26920 41620 83380 11640 54260 53270 30350 44030 110600 103400 29110 29230 26740 36730 140500 15340 54900 3655 24630 20110 24290 123100 18920 161600 100700 14290 35440 111100 44550 33650 35700 24260 22820 76110 16420 56180 96190 83570 29090 98270 32820 43860 107700 36650 21720 33530 33780 29940 42350 31380 27010 24870 30970 90650 35960 54650 27970 37880 12040 42490 88250 39140 24420 32510 34520 46330 28710 26380 37420 98600 36460 28150 19820 22580 61850 35930 192700 36890 22040 33000 26570 80510 39680 24800 81100 43610 22610 56460 26700 74830 28780 45060 72910 27230 31130 24920 32520 80930 43280 32690 25520 46080 90830 32430 36960 86090 46730 27020 22570 37120 13690 32540 65080 39410 30810 36220 80430 51740 125000 53740 100000 39840 246300 112000 25110 84840 30240 28900 47910 158100 69190 49210 16530 16170 177800 33120 82610 14170 26980 18350 63490 18940 22920 41730 52340 41970 48350 26170 85700 23180 18370 19460 40600 39660 33820 95130 36210 99300 41360 61950 36770 22360 27850 46560 35850 29720 113100 45660 18960 55270 67940 18920 29920 71620 91940 37570 100200 41150 18130 73800 3687 45340 23990 28720 35110 66430 72870 60700 24400 46560 50300 92390 42900 25600 45560 57180 66850 19080 57640 13220 71490 24780 22390 21390 83470 34060 24930 35710 30320 9930 11720 87830 102600 26580 23000 31360 86270 25640 33360 166300 4054 79810 47730 64690 35390 28350 20450 42180 31360 81340 19150 23610 37810 23300 101900 32980 25690 37510 34780 38440 32190 49300 70630 53060 91280 31440 44560 59540 39150 26360 25710 24640 91660 64870 77950 33680 28050 88280 26640 63910 41930 65320 62590 73480 24110 25200 30950 54950 37330 33960 24010 37290 28270 56450 37160 35370 25100 14630 96140 75600 31570 24800 34140 34960 105900 84790 81260 103100 67650 40980 31440 34730 38530 23080 34310 40190 11430 28050 34070 24360 53470 28190 41520 59960 106200 121600 32600 43870 97950 31440 49770 80910 28770 28950 35500 31810 50690 31570 26640 55340
2022-03-04 55770 58620 16380 27100 34840 27420 48250 46910 17590 75070 41010 37530 36250 57240 21080 64690 112400 80840 21460 58020 48440 34890 50680 55590 115400 73000 319300 31840 52660 43840 19510 23240 87620 18300 113200 36060 159300 42250 31950 93620 23280 38760 82690 144000 32870 95290 29300 29030 32610 30560 60300 48350 60640 35800 62730 30430 39450 96220 30940 44810 26950 41800 83600 11700 54400 53390 30490 44220 110900 103700 29170 29370 26820 36800 141000 15420 55100 3702 24670 20160 24340 123300 18990 162000 101000 14300 35520 111300 44680 33730 35760 24350 22850 76290 16480 56360 96310 83740 29200 98480 32930 44030 108000 36840 21800 33680 33980 29990 42430 31440 27120 24960 31110 90850 36000 54850 28090 37980 12060 42600 88390 39220 24470 32560 34690 46530 28800 26510 37530 99100 36480 28230 19890 22610 61890 36030 193400 36940 22060 33070 26650 80660 39820 24850 81380 43710 22680 56620 26780 74960 28830 45110 73120 27340 31180 25030 32650 81070 43460 32750 25580 46390 91080 32480 37080 86290 46860 27050 22650 37250 13710 32700 65240 39490 30880 36360 80530 51850 125200 53860 100200 39910 246900 112200 25210 84910 30320 28960 48250 158300 69360 49370 16560 16250 178100 33190 82800 14200 27040 18390 63610 19020 22980 41780 52480 42260 48430 26220 85990 23250 18400 19540 40650 39710 33850 95280 36250 99500 41390 62170 36900 22430 27920 46670 35950 29780 113600 45750 19060 55460 68090 18960 29950 71890 92160 37660 100400 41250 18150 73900 3751 45410 24030 28750 35250 66590 73000 60930 24410 46620 50370 92550 42930 25640 45710 57380 66930 19110 57830 13260 71530 24860 22430 21510 83610 34090 25020 35780 30410 9980 11730 87980 102700 26640 23090 31490 86410 25690 33450 166700 4150 80010 47840 64850 35560 28450 20490 42330 31420 81500 19200 23700 37910 23320 102400 33190 25740 37670 34840 38630 32250 49340 70730 53200 91470 31510 44700 59630 39290 26430 25760 24730 91780 64990 78130 33790 28080 88350 26710 64090 42020 65470 62810 73590 24150 25250 31080 55090 37410 34020 24070 37390 28350 56550 37270 35480 25130 14690 96380 75720 31640 24850 34190 35110 106100 84930 81410 103400 67770 41110 31540 34900 38690 23170 34390 40290 11480 28170 34130 24410 53650 28330 41610 60030 106400 121800 32690 44000 98110 31550 49830 81040 28900 29120 35540 31950 50840 31630 26690 55510
2022-03-05 56010 58980 16470 27170 34940 27580 48460 47120 17680 75230 41120 37610 36300 57360 21130 64780 112600 80980 21490 58120 48500 34960 50810 55710 115900 73130 319800 31890 52700 43930 19530 23290 87730 18340 113500 36160 159600 42390 32050 93850 23310 38810 83010 144200 32990 95460 29360 29090 32690 30590 60390 48380 60730 35900 62860 30470 39610 96270 31000 44870 26990 41960 83800 11750 54510 53500 30620 44370 111100 103900 29230 29480 26900 36850 141500 15500 55280 3750 24690 20200 24370 123400 19060 162400 101200 14330 35600 111600 44800 33800 35820 24420 22870 76450 16530 56530 96420 83940 29300 98650 33050 44210 108200 37040 21870 33820 34180 30050 42510 31510 27250 25040 31270 91040 36040 55040 28190 38040 12090 42700 88520 39280 24510 32610 34830 46670 28890 26610 37640 99500 36500 28310 19970 22650 61930 36110 194100 37000 22090 33130 26720 80790 39930 24880 81620 43790 22750 56750 26840 75080 28870 45170 73300 27440 31230 25140 32760 81200 43620 32820 25630 46730 91300 32540 37210 86460 46990 27080 22750 37360 13730 32820 65350 39550 30950 36480 80630 51970 125400 53950 100300 39970 247300 112300 25300 84970 30380 29020 48540 158600 69490 49500 16590 16330 178400 33260 82980 14220 27100 18430 63720 19100 23050 41840 52610 42510 48500 26250 86230 23310 18420 19640 40700 39740 33880 95430 36290 99700 41420 62370 37060 22500 27980 46750 36040 29850 114000 45830 19150 55640 68220 19000 29990 72120 92360 37760 100600 41330 18180 73980 3820 45500 24050 28780 35400 66710 73140 61110 24430 46680 50440 92690 42970 25680 45840 57580 67000 19140 58000 13290 71580 24920 22460 21620 83720 34120 25100 35850 30500 10010 11750 88110 102800 26700 23150 31600 86540 25740 33540 167000 4228 80200 47930 64980 35700 28570 20520 42470 31480 81670 19250 23770 37990 23350 102900 33360 25780 37810 34890 38800 32300 49390 70830 53330 91630 31580 44820 59710 39410 26480 25800 24780 91900 65090 78270 33880 28120 88430 26780 64250 42100 65590 63000 73690 24180 25300 31200 55210 37490 34090 24130 37480 28430 56640 37350 35590 25150 14740 96600 75830 31700 24910 34230 35240 106300 85060 81540 103700 67880 41230 31620 35050 38830 23250 34460 40390 11530 28280 34190 24460 53760 28460 41700 60100 106500 122100 32770 44120 98280 31640 49910 81150 29000 29260 35580 32070 50970 31690 26740 55660
2022-03-06 56250 59330 16550 27240 35020 27740 48660 47320 17770 75410 41230 37670 36360 57490 21180 64870 112800 81100 21530 58220 48570 35020 50940 55830 116400 73260 320300 31940 52740 44000 19550 23330 87840 18380 113800 36250 159800 42510 32140 94050 23360 38840 83300 144500 33100 95630 29420 29150 32760 30620 60470 48410 60810 36000 62990 30500 39740 96360 31060 44910 27030 42120 84000 11780 54610 53610 30740 44510 111300 104100 29280 29580 26970 36910 142000 15590 55430 3798 24710 20250 24410 123600 19130 162600 101400 14350 35680 111800 44910 33860 35880 24490 22890 76600 16570 56690 96540 84140 29390 98800 33170 44390 108500 37240 21930 33950 34380 30110 42600 31570 27380 25110 31430 91220 36080 55220 28290 38110 12110 42820 88660 39340 24570 32670 34950 46800 28970 26700 37750 100000 36520 28380 20030 22680 61990 36190 194800 37070 22120 33180 26790 80920 40040 24910 81840 43860 22800 56880 26900 75190 28920 45240 73470 27530 31270 25230 32860 81330 43760 32890 25680 47080 91490 32600 37330 86610 47110 27100 22850 37470 13740 32950 65450 39610 31020 36600 80730 52080 125600 54020 100500 40050 247700 112500 25380 85040 30440 29080 48800 158800 69600 49610 16640 16390 178600 33320 83140 14250 27160 18450 63860 19170 23110 41910 52740 42720 48570 26300 86450 23370 18430 19750 40740 39810 33910 95570 36330 99900 41450 62550 37230 22560 28030 46830 36110 29910 114500 45910 19220 55810 68350 19030 30030 72320 92550 37850 100800 41410 18200 74060 3888 45580 24080 28800 35560 66830 73300 61280 24440 46740 50510 92830 43000 25720 45960 57830 67050 19170 58160 13320 71620 24980 22490 21710 83830 34160 25170 35910 30580 10040 11760 88230 102900 26750 23220 31700 86670 25790 33620 167300 4294 80380 48010 65100 35840 28700 20550 42600 31530 81850 19300 23840 38070 23390 103400 33510 25830 37940 34940 38950 32350 49430 70930 53440 91800 31640 44930 59790 39520 26530 25850 24830 92030 65180 78400 33970 28170 88510 26840 64400 42190 65680 63180 73780 24210 25350 31300 55320 37570 34170 24190 37580 28500 56730 37450 35700 25170 14780 96790 75940 31790 24970 34270 35360 106400 85180 81670 103900 67990 41340 31690 35180 38960 23310 34520 40500 11570 28410 34250 24510 53880 28570 41800 60160 106600 122400 32850 44230 98450 31730 49990 81260 29090 29380 35600 32180 51090 31740 26780 55800
2022-03-07 56500 59700 16630 27300 35100 27900 48850 47510 17910 75580 41340 37740 36430 57610 21250 64960 113000 81220 21560 58310 48640 35080 51060 55950 116900 73380 320700 32000 52780 44080 19570 23370 87940 18420 114100 36340 160000 42620 32230 94240 23400 38870 83580 144800 33210 95840 29480 29200 32830 30650 60550 48430 60880 36120 63150 30530 39870 96520 31120 45010 27070 42280 84190 11810 54710 53720 30860 44650 111400 104300 29330 29680 27030 36970 142600 15670 55590 3846 24750 20290 24440 123800 19200 162900 101600 14380 35760 112000 45020 33920 35930 24550 22900 76750 16620 56860 96650 84340 29480 98940 33290 44580 108700 37450 22000 34070 34590 30180 42700 31630 27510 25180 31600 91410 36130 55390 28380 38220 12130 42930 88830 39390 24630 32720 35070 47110 29050 26780 37860 100400 36550 28460 20100 22710 62040 36260 195800 37130 22160 33240 26850 81100 40170 24940 82040 43930 22860 57060 26960 75320 28970 45300 73630 27610 31310 25320 32950 81460 43890 32960 25730 47430 91680 32650 37450 86770 47240 27130 22960 37580 13750 33120 65630 39700 31090 36710 80830 52220 125700 54100 100700 40120 248200 112600 25460 85140 30500 29130 49060 159000 69710 49720 16680 16450 178800 33370 83310 14280 27220 18480 64000 19260 23180 41980 52870 42930 48630 26440 86660 23440 18470 19850 40770 39920 33940 95710 36380 100000 41470 62730 37410 22610 28090 46900 36210 29980 115100 45990 19290 55980 68480 19050 30080 72510 92740 37950 101000 41480 18230 74130 3957 45670 24110 28830 35720 66950 73450 61440 24460 46800 50620 92960 43030 25760 46070 58140 67110 19190 58320 13350 71670 25040 22520 21790 83940 34200 25240 36010 30650 10070 11780 88350 102900 26810 23370 31790 86790 25840 33700 167600 4357 80570 48090 65230 35970 28830 20580 42740 31590 82040 19350 23900 38150 23420 103900 33650 25880 38070 35000 39100 32400 49480 71040 53550 92010 31710 45040 59860 39620 26580 25910 25000 92160 65270 78520 34050 28230 88600 26900 64550 42280 65780 63350 73870 24240 25410 31400 55430 37650 34250 24260 37670 28560 56820 37540 35800 25190 14820 96990 76050 31890 25050 34310 35470 106600 85300 81820 104200 68090 41460 31760 35300 39090 23380 34600 40610 11610 28570 34310 24560 54180 28680 41900 60280 106800 122700 32930 44340 98620 31810 50070 81370 29180 29500 35650 32280 51210 31790 26830 55930
2022-03-08 56750 60070 16700 27350 35180 28070 49050 47700 18100 75770 41450 37800 36490 57740 21340 65050 113300 81340 21600 58410 48720 35140 51180 56070 117300 73510 321100 32050 52820 44150 19590 23400 88040 18450 114300 36420 160100 42730 32310 94430 23450 38900 83850 145000 33310 96100 29540 29250 32890 30670 60630 48450 60960 36270 63320 30570 39990 96600 31170 45070 27110 42430 84380 11830 54800 53830 30970 44780 111600 104500 29390 29780 27100 37020 143100 15750 55740 3895 24780 20330 24480 124000 19260 163200 101800 14400 35840 112300 45130 33970 35990 24610 22920 76890 16660 57020 96770 84550 29570 99080 33420 44770 108900 37660 22060 34200 34800 30250 42820 31690 27640 25240 31770 91590 36170 55560 28470 38330 12160 43060 89020 39460 24700 32780 35180 47620 29130 26860 37970 100900 36570 28530 20170 22750 62100 36330 196800 37200 22190 33290 26910 81310 40320 24970 82240 44000 22910 57240 27010 75510 29020 45370 73790 27690 31350 25410 33040 81580 44020 33030 25790 47800 91860 32710 37570 86920 47360 27150 23080 37680 13760 33260 65790 39800 31150 36830 80930 52370 125900 54170 101000 40200 248600 112700 25540 85280 30560 29180 49300 159200 69810 49830 16730 16510 179000 33430 83480 14310 27290 18500 64190 19340 23240 42050 52990 43130 48690 26680 86860 23500 18490 19970 40810 40010 33980 95860 36420 100200 41500 62910 37590 22670 28140 46970 36310 30040 115600 46060 19360 56140 68600 19080 30120 72700 92920 38040 101100 41540 18250 74200 4029 45760 24140 28850 35880 67110 73620 61600 24480 46860 50740 93080 43070 25800 46190 58440 67150 19220 58470 13380 71720 25090 22540 21880 84040 34240 25310 36110 30720 10100 11790 88460 103000 26860 23560 31890 86920 25880 33790 167800 4416 80760 48170 65340 36100 28960 20610 42870 31650 82230 19400 23960 38230 23460 104400 33780 25930 38190 35050 39250 32450 49530 71140 53660 92260 31770 45140 59940 39720 26630 25980 25240 92280 65360 78630 34130 28280 88690 26960 64690 42360 65860 63510 73960 24270 25500 31500 55540 37730 34320 24330 37770 28630 56910 37640 35900 25210 14860 97180 76160 32000 25140 34350 35580 106700 85410 82000 104400 68190 41570 31820 35420 39210 23440 34700 40720 11650 28710 34360 24610 54700 28790 42000 60390 106900 123000 33020 44440 98790 31890 50160 81470 29260 29610 35680 32390 51330 31850 26870 56070
2022-03-09 57000 60450 16760 27410 35260 28240 49240 47890 18260 75950 41560 37860 36550 57860 21420 65140 113500 81450 21630 58500 48800 35190 51310 56190 117800 73630 321500 32090 52860 44230 19610 23440 88140 18490 114600 36510 160300 42840 32400 94610 23500 38930 84110 145300 33410 96330 29590 29300 32960 30700 60710 48480 61040 36390 63500 30600 40100 96680 31230 45120 27150 42580 84570 11850 54900 53940 31080 44910 111800 104700 29440 29870 27160 37080 143700 15830 55880 3945 24810 20370 24510 124100 19330 163500 102000 14430 35920 112500 45240 34020 36050 24670 22950 77030 16710 57180 96880 84760 29650 99210 33550 44960 109100 37860 22120 34320 35010 30320 42940 31760 27780 25300 31950 91770 36220 55740 28550 38440 12180 43190 89160 39540 24770 32840 35290 47830 29210 26940 38070 101300 36600 28610 20230 22780 62160 36400 197800 37260 22230 33350 26970 81480 40450 24990 82440 44070 22960 57360 27060 75680 29070 45440 73940 27770 31390 25490 33130 81710 44150 33100 25840 48170 92040 32770 37690 87070 47480 27170 23190 37780 13770 33320 65970 39900 31220 36940 81040 52530 126100 54240 101200 40270 248900 112900 25620 85500 30610 29240 49540 159500 69910 49930 16780 16570 179200 33480 83640 14340 27350 18520 64350 19390 23310 42120 53120 43320 48750 26780 87060 23560 18520 20080 40840 40170 34010 96000 36470 100400 41520 63080 37780 22720 28200 47040 36410 30110 116200 46130 19420 56310 68730 19110 30170 72870 93100 38140 101300 41610 18270 74260 4101 45860 24170 28870 36040 67260 73780 61750 24500 46920 50850 93200 43110 25840 46300 58780 67200 19240 58630 13400 71780 25140 22570 21950 84140 34290 25370 36180 30800 10130 11810 88570 103100 26920 23690 31980 87050 25930 33870 168100 4472 80940 48240 65450 36230 29100 20640 43000 31700 82420 19450 24020 38310 23500 105000 33910 25970 38310 35100 39390 32490 49570 71250 53760 92470 31840 45240 60020 39810 26680 26050 25350 92410 65450 78740 34200 28340 88770 27020 64840 42450 65940 63670 74050 24290 25570 31600 55650 37810 34400 24390 37860 28690 57000 37730 36000 25230 14900 97360 76270 32100 25210 34390 35690 106900 85520 82180 104600 68290 41680 31890 35540 39340 23500 34780 40830 11690 28850 34420 24660 54940 28890 42100 60520 107000 123300 33100 44550 98960 31970 50250 81570 29340 29720 35710 32490 51440 31900 26920 56200

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-03-03 to 2022-03-09

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-03-02 55282 57878 16193 26962 34652 27103 47812 46476 17398 74728 40779 37396 36143 56982 20957 64502 111883 80575 21390 57838 48335 34755 50414 55345 114391 72758 318220 31728 52567 43673 19459 23141 87398 18223 112624 35863 158884 41981 31746 93178 23186 38680 82045 143436 32629 94853 29176 28920 32469 30498 60141 48296 60486 35485 62405 30379 39148 96094 30819 44640 26876 41458 83207 11617 54177 53169 30235 43909 110451 103240 29060 29141 26676 36682 139936 15252 54755 3597 24571 20075 24262 122925 18849 161367 100518 14262 35363 110862 44447 33598 35649 24200 22780 75972 16375 56006 96084 83365 29002 98157 32681 43674 107513 36431 21665 33405 33557 29864 42265 31321 26870 24814 30801 90481 35924 54489 27882 37754 12012 42347 88058 39044 24345 32458 34416 46041 28628 26311 37304 98160 36432 28079 19749 22550 61803 35862 192070 36810 22009 32956 26514 80301 39486 24774 80902 43550 22559 56231 26656 74649 28736 45004 72765 27154 31095 24828 32432 80823 43149 32617 25470 45708 90659 32375 36837 85958 46614 26990 22454 37022 13666 32255 64821 39291 30746 36114 80339 51611 124856 53670 99862 39769 245953 111902 25031 84791 30192 28840 47659 157818 69088 49114 16512 16111 177604 33067 82447 14138 26920 18327 63314 18803 22860 41669 52218 41775 48296 26050 85510 23122 18317 19336 40563 39615 33790 94987 36173 99181 41330 61774 36584 22307 27796 46502 35715 29655 112639 45598 18899 55102 67826 18899 29875 71444 91768 37480 99988 41093 18109 73734 3595 45249 23923 28698 34933 66181 72698 60543 24381 46496 50243 92288 42878 25558 45454 56996 66800 19059 57494 13194 71435 24734 22361 21305 83388 34021 24871 35637 30246 9903 11709 87729 102516 26524 22922 31265 86149 25597 33277 166073 3996 79635 47654 64580 35261 28212 20424 42053 31311 81145 19095 23553 37737 23267 101345 32847 25645 37384 34737 38302 32148 49268 70532 52960 90997 31383 44462 59474 39055 26313 25657 24533 91543 64804 77828 33594 27999 88218 26585 63770 41842 65236 62436 73402 24085 25140 30856 54844 37250 33881 23946 37194 28208 56370 37002 35263 25085 14592 95962 75500 31473 24736 34093 34847 105767 84696 81064 102896 67562 40868 31379 34615 38400 23021 34215 40084 11395 27931 34009 24315 53227 28078 41421 59871 106115 121258 32523 43765 97785 31367 49690 80822 28697 28840 35447 31707 50574 31521 26602 55207
2022-03-03 55470 58230 16250 27010 34710 27270 48030 46690 17550 74930 40880 37450 36220 57090 21010 64570 112100 80680 21420 57930 48450 34800 50530 55450 114800 72860 318500 31770 52600 43740 19480 23160 87470 18260 112900 35930 159000 42060 31840 93290 23220 38710 82240 143800 32720 95010 29220 28960 32530 30520 60200 48330 60550 35600 62540 30420 39250 96190 30880 44700 26910 41620 83400 11630 54250 53270 30340 44020 110700 103400 29100 29220 26730 36720 140300 15300 54880 3664 24610 20120 24290 123200 18910 161500 100600 14300 35430 111000 44530 33640 35700 24250 22810 76090 16420 56190 96180 83560 29070 98260 32800 43820 107700 36600 21730 33540 33700 29940 42350 31380 26980 24860 30900 90670 35980 54640 27960 37840 12040 42440 88170 39100 24390 32510 34520 46210 28700 26360 37420 98600 36460 28140 19800 22590 61870 35910 192300 36890 22060 33010 26560 80430 39600 24800 81080 43610 22600 56360 26700 74790 28780 45090 72890 27230 31130 24900 32520 80930 43240 32690 25530 46090 90790 32430 36940 86080 46730 27010 22550 37110 13680 32360 64980 39380 30810 36230 80450 51720 125000 53730 100000 39840 246300 112000 25110 84910 30240 28900 47870 158000 69170 49210 16550 16160 177800 33100 82580 14170 26980 18340 63430 18870 22930 41770 52330 41940 48340 26110 85670 23180 18340 19450 40600 39730 33830 95100 36210 99300 41360 61940 36690 22350 27840 46550 35810 29720 113000 45660 18960 55250 67940 18920 29920 71580 91900 37570 100100 41140 18130 73780 3673 45340 23960 28720 35090 66300 72850 60660 24400 46550 50310 92370 42910 25600 45550 57140 66860 19080 57650 13220 71480 24780 22380 21370 83470 34080 24930 35690 30320 9920 11730 87810 102600 26580 23000 31360 86260 25640 33360 166300 4048 79840 47710 64670 35390 28300 20470 42190 31370 81330 19150 23600 37820 23310 101800 32930 25700 37470 34780 38430 32190 49310 70660 53040 91180 31440 44550 59550 39130 26350 25710 24600 91660 64860 77920 33670 28100 88330 26650 63870 41920 65290 62570 73460 24110 25190 30950 54920 37320 33950 24020 37290 28260 56440 37080 35350 25100 14630 96120 75600 31550 24800 34140 34950 105900 84770 81180 103100 67650 40960 31430 34730 38510 23060 34280 40190 11430 28000 34060 24360 53340 28160 41500 59980 106200 121600 32610 43850 97950 31440 49800 80920 28780 28940 35480 31800 50680 31570 26640 55310
2022-03-04 55710 58540 16300 27060 34770 27430 48210 46890 17670 75120 40980 37510 36290 57190 21050 64640 112200 80770 21460 58000 48540 34850 50620 55540 115200 72950 318800 31810 52640 43800 19500 23190 87540 18290 113100 36000 159200 42140 31930 93420 23260 38730 82440 144000 32820 95170 29270 29000 32580 30540 60260 48360 60610 35670 62650 30450 39350 96230 30930 44740 26940 41770 83560 11660 54330 53350 30430 44130 110900 103600 29140 29300 26800 36770 140900 15380 54990 3709 24640 20150 24330 123500 18960 161700 100800 14320 35480 111200 44600 33680 35750 24300 22820 76200 16450 56370 96270 83710 29140 98390 32910 44120 107800 36780 21780 33630 33880 29990 42410 31430 27100 24920 31050 90810 36030 54770 28040 37920 12060 42520 88280 39160 24430 32560 34600 46420 28770 26420 37520 99000 36490 28200 19850 22610 61930 35960 193000 36950 22100 33050 26620 80540 39700 24830 81230 43670 22650 56460 26750 74910 28820 45160 73000 27300 31150 24970 32580 81020 43320 32750 25560 46450 90920 32470 37040 86210 46810 27030 22630 37190 13690 32450 65100 39450 30860 36330 80540 51800 125100 53800 100200 39890 246500 112100 25170 85030 30290 28950 48050 158300 69260 49300 16580 16210 177900 33140 82680 14190 27030 18350 63510 18920 23000 41860 52430 42080 48390 26210 85820 23230 18360 19540 40630 39820 33870 95210 36240 99400 41390 62100 36820 22390 27890 46600 35880 29780 113500 45720 19020 55380 68050 18950 29960 71730 92030 37650 100200 41200 18150 73840 3736 45410 23980 28740 35250 66410 72960 60770 24410 46600 50390 92470 42940 25630 45630 57400 66910 19100 57770 13240 71530 24830 22400 21440 83560 34130 24970 35750 30380 9950 11750 87910 102700 26630 23090 31440 86360 25680 33420 166500 4116 79990 47760 64760 35490 28420 20500 42300 31420 81480 19200 23640 37890 23340 102300 33010 25760 37550 34820 38550 32230 49340 70780 53130 91310 31490 44630 59610 39190 26390 25750 24710 91760 64930 78010 33750 28170 88410 26700 63970 41990 65330 62710 73540 24140 25230 31030 55000 37390 34010 24090 37350 28310 56510 37160 35420 25120 14650 96260 75670 31600 24840 34160 35040 106000 84860 81290 103300 67730 41050 31480 34820 38600 23110 34340 40270 11460 28130 34100 24400 53520 28240 41580 60060 106300 121800 32680 43910 98070 31500 49890 81010 28850 29030 35500 31880 50770 31610 26680 55410
2022-03-05 55940 58850 16340 27100 34830 27560 48390 47070 17780 75300 41090 37560 36370 57290 21100 64700 112400 80850 21490 58090 48630 34900 50720 55630 115500 73050 319100 31860 52670 43850 19510 23220 87610 18320 113300 36060 159300 42220 32000 93540 23290 38750 82600 144300 32910 95330 29310 29040 32640 30560 60320 48390 60670 35740 62760 30490 39440 96280 30980 44780 26980 41920 83720 11680 54390 53450 30520 44250 111100 103700 29190 29380 26850 36810 141300 15440 55110 3754 24660 20190 24360 123700 19020 161900 100900 14340 35540 111400 44670 33720 35800 24350 22840 76310 16480 56530 96370 83880 29210 98510 33010 44300 108000 36910 21830 33730 34020 30040 42480 31480 27200 24970 31150 90960 36080 54900 28120 37980 12080 42600 88380 39210 24460 32610 34690 46560 28840 26480 37620 99400 36520 28270 19910 22640 61980 36020 193500 37020 22140 33100 26680 80650 39790 24840 81360 43720 22690 56540 26790 75020 28860 45220 73120 27370 31180 25040 32650 81130 43410 32810 25600 46750 91070 32520 37150 86330 46900 27050 22690 37260 13700 32510 65220 39500 30910 36430 80620 51890 125200 53860 100300 39950 246800 112200 25240 85150 30330 29000 48240 158400 69340 49390 16610 16250 178100 33170 82810 14220 27090 18360 63590 18970 23060 41950 52530 42220 48440 26280 85970 23290 18370 19630 40660 39900 33910 95320 36270 99500 41410 62260 36940 22420 27930 46650 35960 29840 113900 45780 19080 55520 68150 18970 30000 71880 92170 37730 100300 41250 18170 73890 3798 45490 23990 28750 35410 66500 73090 60880 24420 46640 50470 92580 42970 25670 45710 57640 66950 19120 57890 13260 71580 24880 22420 21490 83630 34180 25020 35810 30440 9970 11770 87980 102700 26680 23160 31530 86450 25730 33490 166700 4178 80150 47810 64850 35590 28520 20530 42410 31470 81640 19240 23690 37950 23380 102700 33100 25810 37630 34860 38680 32270 49390 70910 53210 91450 31540 44710 59670 39260 26430 25790 24770 91850 65000 78100 33830 28250 88510 26750 64080 42070 65380 62840 73610 24160 25270 31100 55080 37470 34070 24170 37420 28360 56590 37230 35490 25130 14680 96390 75750 31660 24890 34190 35120 106100 84940 81400 103500 67810 41140 31530 34920 38690 23150 34390 40360 11490 28240 34140 24440 53620 28310 41650 60150 106400 122000 32750 44000 98200 31560 50000 81100 28920 29100 35520 31960 50860 31650 26720 55500
2022-03-06 56160 59150 16390 27150 34900 27700 48570 47280 17880 75500 41190 37620 36450 57410 21150 64790 112600 80970 21520 58190 48740 34950 50830 55750 115900 73170 319500 31900 52720 43910 19530 23250 87700 18350 113500 36140 159500 42320 32090 93700 23340 38770 82780 144600 33010 95520 29360 29090 32710 30590 60390 48420 60740 35830 62880 30540 39540 96340 31030 44810 27020 42060 83890 11700 54470 53570 30610 44370 111300 103900 29240 29460 26910 36860 141700 15510 55240 3801 24680 20230 24390 124000 19070 162100 101000 14370 35610 111600 44770 33770 35860 24410 22850 76450 16510 56700 96470 84080 29280 98650 33080 44420 108200 37050 21890 33840 34200 30110 42560 31540 27320 25030 31280 91140 36140 55060 28190 38060 12110 42710 88520 39280 24520 32670 34780 46720 28920 26540 37720 99800 36550 28350 19960 22670 62060 36080 194300 37110 22180 33150 26740 80790 39900 24860 81510 43790 22740 56640 26840 75140 28910 45310 73250 27460 31220 25120 32730 81260 43500 32880 25650 47000 91230 32570 37260 86490 47010 27080 22800 37350 13710 32600 65340 39560 30970 36540 80750 52010 125400 53920 100500 40010 247100 112300 25310 85290 30380 29050 48430 158600 69430 49500 16660 16300 178300 33220 82960 14240 27150 18370 63730 19020 23130 42050 52640 42370 48490 26360 86130 23350 18390 19710 40690 40010 33970 95440 36320 99600 41430 62410 37050 22460 27980 46710 36040 29900 114500 45850 19140 55660 68270 19000 30050 72040 92340 37830 100400 41310 18200 73970 3862 45580 24010 28780 35550 66640 73220 60990 24440 46690 50550 92720 43020 25710 45820 57940 67000 19140 58020 13290 71650 24930 22440 21550 83720 34240 25080 35890 30500 9990 11800 88080 102800 26730 23260 31620 86570 25770 33560 166900 4235 80330 47870 64950 35700 28630 20570 42540 31530 81820 19290 23740 38030 23430 103100 33190 25870 37720 34910 38800 32310 49450 71030 53310 91600 31610 44810 59750 39330 26470 25840 24850 91980 65080 78200 33920 28340 88630 26810 64190 42140 65430 62980 73690 24200 25320 31190 55180 37540 34150 24240 37510 28420 56670 37320 35570 25140 14710 96550 75850 31750 24950 34230 35220 106200 85050 81540 103700 67910 41230 31580 35020 38800 23200 34460 40460 11530 28380 34190 24480 53830 28390 41760 60250 106500 122300 32830 44100 98380 31640 50110 81220 28990 29200 35540 32050 50960 31710 26760 55620
2022-03-07 56440 59580 16450 27200 34980 27870 48750 47500 18000 75700 41310 37680 36540 57530 21210 64880 112800 81080 21560 58280 48850 35000 50940 55870 116300 73290 319800 31950 52760 43980 19550 23280 87770 18390 113800 36210 159700 42430 32190 93880 23380 38800 83060 144900 33110 95730 29420 29150 32790 30620 60470 48460 60810 35940 63030 30580 39650 96460 31080 44890 27070 42210 84080 11720 54570 53680 30700 44490 111500 104100 29290 29560 26970 36920 142500 15580 55370 3848 24710 20270 24440 124300 19130 162300 101200 14400 35670 111800 44870 33810 35920 24460 22870 76590 16560 56860 96570 84290 29380 98800 33220 44570 108400 37210 21950 33940 34350 30170 42660 31600 27440 25090 31420 91320 36200 55240 28280 38170 12130 42830 88680 39340 24580 32720 34880 47020 29000 26620 37820 100200 36580 28420 20020 22700 62120 36150 195000 37200 22230 33190 26790 80970 40030 24880 81700 43850 22790 56790 26900 75280 28960 45410 73390 27530 31240 25200 32810 81400 43590 32950 25690 47330 91400 32620 37380 86650 47150 27100 22880 37440 13720 32730 65520 39660 31020 36650 80890 52140 125600 54000 100700 40090 247500 112400 25390 85450 30450 29100 48620 158900 69520 49600 16700 16350 178500 33270 83110 14270 27200 18380 63870 19080 23210 42150 52740 42510 48540 26500 86310 23400 18420 19820 40720 40150 34030 95580 36370 99800 41470 62570 37200 22500 28030 46770 36130 29970 115000 45920 19200 55810 68380 19030 30090 72200 92550 37930 100600 41380 18220 74030 3926 45680 24050 28800 35720 66770 73370 61150 24450 46760 50680 92860 43060 25760 45930 58200 67040 19170 58160 13310 71730 24990 22460 21630 83840 34330 25140 35960 30570 10020 11830 88180 102900 26780 23380 31700 86700 25820 33630 167200 4314 80500 47960 65060 35820 28750 20610 42660 31590 82010 19340 23800 38110 23480 103500 33290 25920 37830 34960 38940 32360 49520 71170 53430 91810 31680 44930 59830 39400 26520 25890 25010 92120 65160 78300 34010 28420 88720 26870 64340 42220 65480 63120 73780 24230 25380 31280 55270 37620 34240 24320 37610 28480 56770 37400 35660 25160 14740 96760 75950 31860 25020 34270 35320 106400 85170 81700 104000 68010 41330 31640 35130 38930 23250 34540 40580 11560 28510 34250 24520 54080 28460 41910 60390 106600 122600 32920 44210 98530 31710 50220 81320 29070 29320 35570 32160 51070 31760 26820 55750
2022-03-08 56800 60040 16500 27240 35040 28150 48940 47720 18230 75910 41430 37740 36630 57660 21280 64960 113100 81180 21590 58390 48960 35060 51050 55990 116700 73420 320200 31990 52800 44040 19560 23320 87850 18430 114000 36300 159900 42530 32280 94060 23430 38830 83320 145200 33200 95980 29470 29220 32850 30650 60550 48490 60890 36070 63200 30620 39760 96540 31140 44940 27120 42360 84250 11740 54680 53800 30790 44620 111800 104300 29340 29640 27040 36970 144300 15750 55500 3896 24740 20300 24480 124600 19190 162600 101400 14430 35740 112000 44980 33850 35980 24520 22890 76720 16600 57030 96660 84500 29460 98950 33410 45180 108600 37660 22010 34060 34840 30240 42770 31660 27610 25150 31810 91510 36260 55410 28370 38260 12150 42940 88840 39410 24630 32780 34990 47690 29080 26690 37930 101000 36600 28510 20080 22730 62210 36220 197600 37300 22270 33250 26850 81150 40140 24910 81880 43910 22840 56920 26950 75460 29010 45530 73520 27600 31270 25290 32880 81530 43680 33030 25740 47860 91540 32670 37490 86800 47280 27120 23190 37530 13730 32860 65670 39750 31090 36770 81040 52260 125700 54070 100900 40170 247900 112600 25460 85620 30510 29160 48820 159100 69630 49710 16750 16410 178700 33330 83290 14300 27260 18390 64020 19150 23280 42250 52840 42650 48590 26840 86500 23460 18440 19940 40740 40280 34080 95730 36420 99900 41500 62730 37680 22540 28080 46830 36220 30040 116300 45990 19260 55970 68500 19050 30140 72370 92730 38040 100700 41450 18240 74090 3996 45790 24080 28820 35960 66920 73540 61280 24470 46830 50800 92990 43100 25800 46050 58950 67080 19190 58300 13330 71780 25050 22490 21700 83950 34400 25200 36040 30640 10040 11850 88290 103000 26840 23550 31800 86830 25870 33710 167500 4380 80690 48050 65170 35940 29050 20650 42800 31650 82210 19390 23870 38180 23520 104700 33390 25980 37920 35010 39070 32400 49580 71310 53570 92030 31760 45020 59900 39470 26560 25950 25330 92260 65240 78430 34100 28500 88820 26940 64490 42320 65540 63260 73860 24260 25450 31370 55380 37710 34330 24400 37710 28550 56880 37500 35770 25180 14770 96960 76050 31960 25100 34310 35410 106500 85280 81880 104300 68110 41420 31710 35230 39040 23320 34630 40690 11590 28870 34310 24570 54720 28550 42040 60520 106700 122900 33000 44320 98700 31780 50340 81410 29150 29410 35600 32250 51170 31800 26870 55870
2022-03-09 57080 60440 16550 27290 35110 28280 49120 47930 18330 76110 41550 37800 36710 57780 21340 65040 113300 81270 21630 58500 49060 35110 51160 56100 117000 73530 320500 32040 52840 44100 19580 23350 87930 18470 114300 36370 160000 42630 32360 94220 23480 38870 83530 145600 33300 96200 29520 29280 32920 30680 60630 48520 60950 36190 63350 30660 39860 96590 31190 44980 27160 42510 84430 11750 54770 53910 30890 44740 112000 104400 29390 29720 27100 37020 145000 15850 55630 3944 24770 20340 24510 124900 19250 162800 101500 14450 35810 112200 45080 33900 36030 24580 22920 76840 16630 57190 96770 84710 29540 99090 33530 45390 108800 37870 22070 34170 35050 30300 42860 31720 27830 25200 32000 91670 36320 55570 28440 38360 12170 43050 88970 39490 24690 32830 35080 47920 29160 26760 38030 101400 36630 28590 20140 22770 62280 36280 198500 37380 22320 33300 26910 81310 40270 24930 82070 43970 22890 57040 26990 75610 29060 45620 73650 27680 31300 25380 32950 81650 43780 33090 25790 48250 91690 32720 37610 86930 47390 27140 23290 37620 13730 32950 65840 39840 31150 36870 81180 52390 125900 54150 101100 40240 248200 112700 25540 85810 30560 29210 49010 159400 69720 49830 16780 16460 178900 33380 83430 14330 27320 18400 64160 19210 23350 42350 52950 42790 48650 26980 86660 23520 18470 20030 40770 40410 34130 95840 36470 100100 41520 62890 37910 22580 28130 46890 36320 30100 116900 46060 19320 56140 68630 19080 30190 72550 92900 38130 100800 41510 18270 74150 4065 45890 24100 28840 36150 67070 73690 61420 24480 46880 50900 93120 43140 25850 46170 59270 67120 19210 58420 13350 71850 25100 22510 21760 84030 34450 25260 36110 30710 10070 11870 88390 103100 26890 23660 31890 86960 25910 33790 167700 4443 80870 48140 65270 36050 29190 20690 42920 31700 82400 19450 23930 38260 23570 105200 33480 26040 38010 35060 39220 32440 49640 71460 53690 92230 31820 45120 59970 39540 26600 26000 25460 92380 65320 78540 34190 28590 88920 27000 64610 42400 65590 63400 73930 24290 25510 31450 55480 37790 34420 24470 37810 28610 56980 37590 35860 25190 14800 97170 76140 32060 25160 34350 35510 106600 85380 82060 104500 68210 41530 31760 35330 39150 23370 34710 40800 11620 29010 34360 24620 55030 28640 42150 60650 106800 123100 33080 44420 98860 31850 50450 81500 29220 29520 35630 32340 51260 31850 26920 56000

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.