COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-03-08 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-03-08

Slideshow of forecasts 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how we lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-03-08

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-272022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-24 --2021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-02-062021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-02-062021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Peak daily increment 3694 5019 543 1126 1275 1467 804 437 746 1774 1382 1599 1253 2241 604 3477 4582 3961 989 2556 1660 1411 1658 2285 1199 3307 17521 1550 3317 2250 319 962 4696 641 4741 1427 8814 1557 928 4180 916 508 3217 6862 1115 3849 1176 1160 1302 2002 2935 611 2895 1143 2214 1302 1418 1131 1362 528 1222 456 3005 192 2422 2091 1033 1466 3801 4793 1173 962 949 1524 7415 639 1939 403 774 995 3960 513 7900 4326 551 1426 5019 1559 1550 1634 862 267 3466 481 896 4767 2335 1159 4687 1952 1749 4677 1651 663 1048 1164 885 1468 1093 1490 891 1427 3182 1563 1625 976 1274 417 1353 3625 1652 982 1189 1007 2189 930 917 560 5830 482 1022 779 884 2871 1519 6312 1464 848 1510 1137 3360 1261 323 3318 2105 817 2104 1115 3254 1188 1498 3091 867 1796 839 1224 4136 1707 1188 1044 2395 3914 1327 1158 3872 1474 1689 819 1209 234 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 3609 2021 6117 3336 4514 1732 11029 6320 803 3519 1176 1238 694 9205 3848 1963 580 540 10177 1515 3625 516 696 246 2554 503 650 1251 1058 648 2802 1294 3381 825 189 1405 532 1263 1329 4887 1519 5335 518 1141 1417 659 963 1941 1111 1060 2967 1824 526 1868 2932 835 1179 2965 3811 1403 5264 1790 839 4269 254 1562 291 1808 2128 3085 2613 2589 315 2466 2199 4529 2322 1065 1632 1560 1026 776 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 4307 1311 892 1297 1206 259 344 4748 5886 951 1295 1073 4438 857 1175 8405 603 3240 2347 2862 1130 1333 768 1599 1218 2982 587 863 1470 763 3715 1059 875 1101 1609 1007 1377 2510 3022 2379 4073 1253 1583 3012 1783 1077 992 1245 3842 3631 3812 1010 929 4460 904 2652 1725 890 2290 3757 968 844 990 2555 1394 1055 812 1551 1025 2766 1234 1351 341 431 5344 3306 1034 878 422 1143 5038 4407 3811 4283 2987 1563 1301 1098 1167 804 1352 1077 245 743 1620 922 2421 862 1416 1659 5841 3884 989 1539 4859 1307 1823 4157 1188 796 397 1077 2155 1437 1060 2087
Days since peak 30 30 43 43 43 30 43 71 30 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 70 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 70 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 70 43 43 43 43 43 70 43 69 43 69 43 69 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 30 30 43 70 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 69 43 43 69 43 43 43 43 30 30 43 30 43 43 30 43 43 43 30 43 30 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 30 43 43 69 30 70 43 43 43 43 43 14 43 43 43 43 43 43 70 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 30 43 43 43 43 43 43 30 43 70 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 71 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 30 43 43 70 30 69 43 43 43 43 43 71 43 30 43 43 43 43 43 14 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 30 43 70 43 30 43 43 43 68 43 43 43 43 43 43 14 71 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 30 43 43 43 43 43 30 43 43 43 43 30 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 30 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 30 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 69 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 69 43 43 43 43 43 70 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 30 43 43 30 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 70 43 43 43 43 43
Last total 58181 61985 16579 27336 35203 28898 49031 47853 18620 75924 41611 37750 36897 57949 21462 65005 113275 81223 21676 58702 49190 35120 51380 56215 116860 73619 320289 32016 52831 44176 19661 23352 87968 18513 114526 36512 159978 42749 32569 94059 23535 38917 83638 146106 33399 96341 29550 29290 32898 30652 60644 48619 60922 36289 63370 30674 40023 96888 31330 45092 27323 42376 84700 11767 54802 54010 30993 44700 111926 104746 29438 29781 27154 37025 145818 16049 55797 4112 24744 20350 24539 126028 19312 162706 101386 14495 35959 112296 45176 33860 36099 24588 22978 76800 16711 57041 97009 85353 29675 98907 34452 45479 108748 38643 22290 34347 35282 30520 43034 31884 28284 25227 32246 91734 36323 55788 28560 38407 12263 43169 88967 39576 24812 32850 35181 48517 29317 26726 38279 102543 36762 28763 20182 22825 62289 36242 198657 37405 22448 33342 27016 81344 40382 25020 81984 44039 22852 57098 27041 75576 29066 45714 73656 27718 31294 25502 33128 81742 44023 33132 25865 49307 91718 32780 37802 86852 47730 27128 23499 37763 13762 32985 65884 39890 31216 37074 81099 52591 125849 54241 101189 40415 248431 112691 25629 85901 30528 29364 48973 159675 69677 49916 16905 16531 178915 33408 83700 14354 27452 18405 64349 19266 23385 42661 52887 42807 48576 27285 86726 23636 18485 20824 40828 40651 34219 95934 36532 99997 41620 62773 38881 22784 28159 46907 36573 30285 117066 46253 19378 56550 68505 19133 30261 72484 92902 38297 100923 41487 18291 74202 4119 45932 24198 28806 36765 67087 74142 61625 24578 46945 50939 93088 43158 25854 46381 59341 67299 19220 58569 13330 71780 25151 22482 21955 83983 34428 25304 36209 30700 10056 11922 88365 103042 26837 24453 31939 87325 25950 33901 167732 4458 81218 48106 65235 36368 29698 20734 43149 31729 82805 19521 23988 38500 23798 106007 33677 26176 38206 35207 39342 32484 49615 71489 53833 92223 31847 45280 60063 39583 26636 26099 25723 92538 65279 78495 34251 28690 88959 27080 64792 42629 65625 63491 73911 24326 25578 31645 55571 37975 34608 24571 37938 28698 57033 37598 36072 25237 14869 96964 76296 32144 25286 34448 35618 106489 85303 82088 104487 68315 41536 31759 35489 39340 23365 34752 41044 11674 29235 34456 24749 55396 28637 42186 60740 106842 123904 33266 44520 99132 31927 50567 81399 29143 29597 35726 32305 51293 31974 26921 56196
Last daily increment 471 655 76 78 113 324 224 258 217 234 196 70 166 216 126 106 289 125 53 188 160 84 228 184 510 152 459 65 48 111 35 50 118 60 419 152 226 162 149 154 88 35 373 612 164 338 96 94 86 26 107 56 105 159 202 46 177 163 119 76 94 192 294 23 135 181 168 155 350 321 91 150 118 65 1107 143 239 113 30 73 50 707 96 308 201 40 137 261 141 46 98 57 31 160 66 228 176 425 125 162 307 254 233 352 125 195 313 150 150 138 298 88 242 262 78 292 139 133 61 161 200 94 93 85 173 510 169 85 197 749 66 156 94 68 121 88 1319 135 116 70 86 207 174 34 221 113 70 202 93 209 80 156 194 131 42 133 160 176 190 128 73 662 200 88 206 169 247 36 193 176 17 167 248 144 105 170 163 194 192 98 286 121 546 155 136 241 74 120 267 390 123 141 95 95 296 70 242 54 108 12 239 91 117 218 130 214 72 218 239 107 12 242 44 246 102 217 75 162 53 195 489 94 85 108 188 172 859 188 97 321 152 44 89 197 255 185 223 96 30 102 73 148 44 23 325 175 303 284 21 99 170 204 63 55 212 468 101 39 226 38 74 88 31 159 139 81 100 112 112 25 40 159 135 65 261 147 286 77 117 386 61 368 103 152 224 266 65 218 85 324 95 82 175 126 935 190 104 183 116 227 72 85 222 173 241 93 176 131 99 63 104 219 223 110 150 150 129 163 99 213 179 42 214 96 42 90 172 146 156 179 144 163 109 137 109 165 27 59 221 187 114 129 57 167 168 109 211 359 159 137 83 190 190 64 102 191 66 271 87 98 390 108 167 175 133 626 192 168 297 132 198 120 80 171 51 123 124 99 83 213
Last week 2893 4105 376 372 541 1795 1218 1382 1219 1194 830 344 754 962 494 496 1375 638 274 841 841 367 963 863 2467 854 2000 286 258 501 181 209 563 289 1883 646 1088 766 819 882 344 233 1583 2650 765 1478 372 364 427 152 499 302 432 794 955 292 871 757 501 426 436 919 1488 140 624 839 747 787 1460 1500 372 638 477 338 5867 795 1037 516 170 272 276 3091 457 1318 862 231 595 1406 724 261 447 399 190 823 334 1041 907 1972 670 740 1771 1803 1222 2209 618 933 1720 655 753 556 1413 413 1442 1245 396 1273 669 653 245 815 897 524 465 389 758 2464 686 413 974 4377 307 682 431 273 461 375 6575 594 437 386 492 1027 891 233 1061 481 293 854 383 922 328 694 889 561 199 670 694 902 873 510 391 3585 1045 405 959 887 1110 138 1045 727 88 726 1049 594 467 938 758 968 982 554 1293 639 2429 783 595 1097 333 508 1307 1843 588 791 391 420 1293 331 1235 213 526 75 1017 459 517 979 670 1033 281 1234 1210 507 158 1486 260 1035 426 956 356 789 282 1002 2292 474 360 398 854 630 4422 652 470 1433 674 231 383 1036 1122 815 914 389 182 468 524 680 252 107 1820 897 1440 1080 192 447 691 779 281 295 918 2337 472 159 1068 136 339 410 119 645 593 405 430 568 452 153 210 635 509 309 1531 674 1165 351 622 1539 460 1578 444 649 1105 1484 306 1091 415 1650 425 432 761 527 4655 821 530 821 467 1038 331 334 954 849 1211 461 814 581 523 320 437 1189 989 472 669 648 689 692 488 1009 783 375 1045 502 233 437 773 723 723 726 619 738 483 650 592 804 149 272 984 792 670 547 351 765 714 598 1009 1573 749 665 379 871 925 342 527 956 277 1302 444 433 2166 551 757 858 723 2627 733 751 1344 552 875 566 448 753 275 596 715 450 318 976
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-11-112021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-07-162021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-20 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-06-062021-07-162021-10-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-142021-10-192021-10-102021-08-052021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-10-18 --2021-07-142021-10-18 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012021-07-152021-12-29 --2021-07-14 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-242021-06-29 --2021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302021-06-05 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-07-142021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-06 --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-142021-07-122021-07-142021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-172021-07-14 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-10-142021-09-02 -- --2021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-14 --2021-07-152021-07-162021-07-15 --2021-07-112021-07-162021-07-152021-07-29 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-06-292021-08-182021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-122021-09-15 --2021-07-142021-07-112021-07-15 -- -- --2021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 -- --2021-12-272021-09-29 --2021-10-182021-07-122021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-08-032021-07-152021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-06-29 -- --2021-06-29 --2021-07-15 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192021-06-062021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-09-012021-08-17 -- --2021-07-162021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-17 -- --2021-10-042021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142021-07-13 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-182021-07-152021-06-29 --2021-08-172021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-08-192021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-07-172021-07-142021-07-152021-10-182021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-142021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-162021-07-08
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 260 276 70 139 152 144 287 379 176 943 127 159 126 202 293 107 478 103 176 68 218 621 4 258 94 72 97 74 160 249 177 72 159 115 101 227 67 170 203 269 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 142 33 114 708 607 376 53 101 229 122 140 92 86 64 202 400 269 137 188 133 135 183 122 100 65 157 15 61 22 105 58 110 128 185 88 171 421 67 56 82 274 123 941 95 63 113 163 229 84 156 152 61 65 146 54 151 87 82 90 203 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 247 316 301 117 707 51 213 80 99 120 41 47 448 96 169 40 164 72 72 101 274 115 49 31 184 116 384 105 164 123 94 256 1294 176 291 228 77 96 322 87 264 158 255 143 118 343 297 114 289 268 40 140 67 213 75 73 49 116 70 253 94 78 123 96 482 169 277 202 118 49 345 86 85 470 128 68 77 92 106 303 200 152 243 70 131 87 77 91 243 339 240 201 428 57 145 101 329 219 85 143 137 116 92 150 92 78 105 131 134 106 226 286 64 79 352 157 313 195 144 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 99 63 117 120 74 138
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 42 2 28 49 59 18 128 103 28 53 51 54 99 179 71 406 33 65 31 75 124 39 190 42 75 22 83 100 2 100 38 34 44 31 68 97 73 35 58 22 21 92 25 46 68 129 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 64 25 227 190 143 16 39 112 49 43 39 41 32 63 142 128 56 26 58 49 49 57 36 30 35 6 25 7 38 23 49 44 80 41 67 199 29 19 32 75 54 199 21 30 40 76 57 27 54 75 27 32 32 18 70 38 41 37 59 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 107 143 74 44 295 20 66 35 43 51 17 14 164 48 77 11 75 30 20 36 58 32 24 2 75 54 120 38 54 61 39 68 157 83 115 88 22 40 111 42 112 50 87 51 19 108 49 51 68 125 18 61 17 69 20 21 17 56 25 104 38 28 40 33 189 80 91 64 40 22 58 34 40 149 59 28 35 35 42 55 94 56 65 34 49 36 27 38 118 78 85 62 96 24 64 24 103 85 30 34 55 35 37 63 23 33 36 51 61 41 72 125 31 36 172 70 94 86 69 36 31 40 47 87 17 37 42 89 24 58 112 316 69 28 31 52 43 35 59

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-03-09 to 2022-03-15

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-03-08 58181 61985 16579 27336 35203 28898 49031 47853 18620 75924 41611 37750 36897 57949 21462 65005 113275 81223 21676 58702 49190 35120 51380 56215 116860 73619 320289 32016 52831 44176 19661 23352 87968 18513 114526 36512 159978 42749 32569 94059 23535 38917 83638 146106 33399 96341 29550 29290 32898 30652 60644 48619 60922 36289 63370 30674 40023 96888 31330 45092 27323 42376 84700 11767 54802 54010 30993 44700 111926 104746 29438 29781 27154 37025 145818 16049 55797 4112 24744 20350 24539 126028 19312 162706 101386 14495 35959 112296 45176 33860 36099 24588 22978 76800 16711 57041 97009 85353 29675 98907 34452 45479 108748 38643 22290 34347 35282 30520 43034 31884 28284 25227 32246 91734 36323 55788 28560 38407 12263 43169 88967 39576 24812 32850 35181 48517 29317 26726 38279 102543 36762 28763 20182 22825 62289 36242 198657 37405 22448 33342 27016 81344 40382 25020 81984 44039 22852 57098 27041 75576 29066 45714 73656 27718 31294 25502 33128 81742 44023 33132 25865 49307 91718 32780 37802 86852 47730 27128 23499 37763 13762 32985 65884 39890 31216 37074 81099 52591 125849 54241 101189 40415 248431 112691 25629 85901 30528 29364 48973 159675 69677 49916 16905 16531 178915 33408 83700 14354 27452 18405 64349 19266 23385 42661 52887 42807 48576 27285 86726 23636 18485 20824 40828 40651 34219 95934 36532 99997 41620 62773 38881 22784 28159 46907 36573 30285 117066 46253 19378 56550 68505 19133 30261 72484 92902 38297 100923 41487 18291 74202 4119 45932 24198 28806 36765 67087 74142 61625 24578 46945 50939 93088 43158 25854 46381 59341 67299 19220 58569 13330 71780 25151 22482 21955 83983 34428 25304 36209 30700 10056 11922 88365 103042 26837 24453 31939 87325 25950 33901 167732 4458 81218 48106 65235 36368 29698 20734 43149 31729 82805 19521 23988 38500 23798 106007 33677 26176 38206 35207 39342 32484 49615 71489 53833 92223 31847 45280 60063 39583 26636 26099 25723 92538 65279 78495 34251 28690 88959 27080 64792 42629 65625 63491 73911 24326 25578 31645 55571 37975 34608 24571 37938 28698 57033 37598 36072 25237 14869 96964 76296 32144 25286 34448 35618 106489 85303 82088 104487 68315 41536 31759 35489 39340 23365 34752 41044 11674 29235 34456 24749 55396 28637 42186 60740 106842 123904 33266 44520 99132 31927 50567 81399 29143 29597 35726 32305 51293 31974 26921 56196
2022-03-09 58610 62600 16640 27390 35280 29180 49230 48070 18780 76120 41740 37800 37000 58110 21530 65040 113400 81320 21710 58840 49330 35180 51520 56330 117300 73620 320500 32060 52880 44240 19690 23370 88040 18520 114900 36600 160100 42850 32650 94170 23590 38950 83750 146500 33500 96360 29610 29300 32960 30680 60720 48660 60940 36340 63470 30720 40140 97010 31430 45150 27410 42530 85000 11790 54830 54130 31110 44820 112000 104900 29520 29880 27220 37030 146800 16170 55940 4194 24770 20420 24580 126000 19380 162800 101400 14550 36060 112400 45210 33910 36100 24650 22990 76940 16760 57210 97130 85610 29770 99050 34740 45740 108900 38970 22370 34480 35610 30610 43030 32000 28530 25280 32480 91800 36380 55970 28650 38500 12310 43200 89000 39580 24870 32910 35290 48860 29450 26790 38420 103300 36780 28860 20250 22880 62380 36280 199500 37500 22540 33400 27080 81380 40510 25020 82160 44100 22900 57130 27120 75640 29120 45830 73780 27800 31330 25590 33250 81870 44140 33210 25920 49950 91860 32840 37970 86980 47910 27150 23640 37860 13780 33040 65970 39940 31280 37200 81280 52590 126000 54320 101300 40420 248500 112800 25720 85970 30560 29460 49180 159700 69710 50030 16950 16540 179000 33420 83700 14380 27530 18420 64380 19330 23470 42790 52980 42970 48630 27480 86760 23740 18510 21000 40860 40650 34280 95990 36580 100100 41660 62940 39310 22840 28210 46970 36570 30410 117900 46390 19440 56740 68600 19160 30320 72650 92970 38410 101100 41540 18320 74210 4184 46040 24230 28830 37050 67150 74340 61840 24600 47000 50980 93130 43200 25900 46500 59660 67360 19240 58720 13350 71860 25240 22510 22080 84030 34470 25370 36290 30780 10080 11950 88410 103200 26890 24730 32040 87560 26020 33990 168000 4507 81530 48170 65340 36520 29970 20780 43300 31790 83040 19580 23990 38630 23850 106900 33790 26250 38320 35310 39490 32530 49650 71670 53970 92370 31870 45390 60190 39660 26680 26160 25940 92720 65350 78620 34350 28790 89090 27150 64790 42790 65680 63640 74000 24330 25580 31750 55580 38100 34620 24670 38040 28700 57140 37690 36070 25260 14910 97140 76410 32160 25360 34460 35720 106600 85390 82130 104600 68320 41640 31810 35610 39470 23400 34770 41170 11710 29480 34520 24840 55780 28720 42310 60850 107000 124300 33420 44530 99400 32010 50690 81480 29220 29640 35730 32400 51390 32050 26970 56330
2022-03-10 58970 63090 16680 27400 35300 29390 49420 48280 18840 76310 41850 37840 37010 58220 21540 65120 113500 81400 21710 58990 49440 35210 51550 56350 117700 73680 320700 32100 52910 44250 19690 23400 88080 18540 115100 36600 160200 42870 32650 94330 23650 38970 83950 146600 33540 96490 29630 29330 33000 30700 60740 48670 60980 36450 63600 30740 40170 97170 31500 45190 27480 42680 85260 11810 54910 54160 31170 44910 112100 105000 29580 29930 27250 37060 147600 16270 55980 4260 24810 20480 24600 126200 19410 163100 101500 14590 36110 112500 45280 33960 36130 24690 23010 77040 16770 57360 97140 85660 29780 99170 34980 45970 109000 39270 22370 34520 35910 30630 43100 32080 28730 25310 32690 91940 36430 56010 28680 38540 12350 43270 89090 39620 24870 32950 35350 49300 29550 26860 38440 103900 36820 28970 20280 22920 62470 36340 200000 37580 22610 33420 27110 81490 40570 25040 82280 44110 22940 57200 27190 75760 29130 45930 73860 27850 31350 25620 33330 82010 44160 33240 25920 50560 91940 32840 38100 87060 48010 27170 23710 37890 13780 33130 66090 40020 31310 37230 81460 52680 126100 54330 101500 40450 248800 112900 25740 86090 30600 29550 49400 159800 69810 50100 17010 16590 179200 33450 83780 14400 27570 18440 64470 19370 23540 42790 53050 43120 48690 27620 86900 23820 18540 21000 40880 40740 34300 96100 36640 100200 41670 63140 39650 22840 28240 47010 36630 30490 118600 46480 19480 56740 68700 19170 30320 72800 93100 38490 101100 41570 18330 74260 4231 46100 24250 28850 37280 67280 74420 62010 24620 47020 51060 93230 43220 25930 46660 59800 67370 19240 58780 13360 71930 25310 22530 22190 84110 34510 25400 36310 30860 10100 11960 88510 103300 26930 24960 32100 87710 26080 34000 168200 4558 81760 48240 65420 36530 30190 20790 43320 31820 83140 19620 24050 38720 23910 107700 33830 26270 38350 35370 39580 32560 49700 71830 54100 92570 31930 45420 60290 39710 26700 26160 26130 92890 65390 78730 34400 28860 89190 27160 64870 42910 65760 63730 74040 24360 25620 31770 55650 38210 34670 24720 38070 28750 57260 37760 36160 25270 14910 97350 76540 32220 25430 34500 35740 106700 85450 82240 104900 68370 41710 31840 35660 39510 23450 34850 41240 11730 29770 34590 24900 56100 28790 42440 60980 107000 124400 33540 44610 99600 32030 50740 81530 29280 29740 35750 32470 51460 32100 27030 56350
2022-03-11 59340 63600 16730 27440 35350 29620 49610 48480 18940 76510 41970 37890 37060 58340 21580 65200 113700 81500 21730 59150 49560 35250 51620 56410 118100 73770 321000 32140 52940 44280 19700 23440 88130 18570 115300 36650 160400 42930 32660 94440 23720 38990 84170 146800 33600 96660 29670 29380 33050 30730 60790 48700 61020 36550 63710 30780 40240 97300 31580 45230 27550 42830 85520 11830 54970 54230 31250 45010 112300 105100 29650 30000 27300 37110 148500 16380 56070 4333 24840 20540 24640 126500 19450 163300 101700 14630 36180 112700 45350 34010 36180 24730 23030 77170 16790 57520 97210 85810 29840 99310 35210 46200 109200 39570 22390 34600 36190 30690 43170 32180 28930 25350 32890 92080 36490 56110 28740 38610 12390 43350 89190 39680 24890 33000 35430 49600 29660 26920 38510 104500 36850 29080 20330 22960 62550 36390 200700 37670 22680 33460 27160 81590 40670 25060 82430 44140 22980 57300 27260 75860 29160 46030 73960 27920 31380 25680 33430 82140 44220 33290 25950 51130 92040 32870 38230 87160 48150 27190 23810 37950 13800 33240 66220 40090 31360 37310 81590 52760 126200 54380 101600 40510 249100 113000 25800 86210 30660 29640 49610 160100 69880 50190 17050 16650 179400 33500 83900 14420 27630 18450 64580 19430 23610 42850 53120 43270 48750 27780 87050 23910 18570 21050 40910 40840 34340 96190 36710 100300 41690 63320 40000 22860 28280 47070 36720 30590 119300 46590 19530 56830 68810 19180 30350 72960 93230 38580 101200 41610 18340 74330 4284 46190 24270 28870 37510 67400 74560 62200 24650 47050 51140 93320 43250 25970 46800 60020 67400 19250 58880 13380 72010 25380 22560 22290 84180 34570 25450 36360 30940 10130 11980 88610 103400 26980 25190 32180 87890 26150 34050 168400 4608 82010 48310 65520 36600 30420 20810 43400 31870 83310 19660 24090 38820 24000 108500 33900 26320 38410 35440 39690 32600 49750 71990 54250 92750 31970 45490 60400 39770 26730 26190 26310 93080 65460 78860 34480 28940 89320 27200 64970 43030 65810 63840 74100 24400 25670 31820 55740 38320 34740 24800 38130 28800 57360 37840 36230 25290 14930 97510 76660 32290 25510 34530 35800 106800 85530 82330 105100 68440 41800 31880 35740 39590 23490 34910 41340 11760 29970 34670 24970 56430 28870 42560 61090 107100 124600 33660 44690 99800 32080 50820 81590 29350 29830 35780 32550 51540 32170 27100 56420
2022-03-12 59700 64110 16790 27480 35410 29860 49800 48680 19060 76700 42080 37940 37120 58470 21630 65260 113900 81600 21760 59280 49690 35300 51730 56490 118500 73860 321300 32190 52980 44330 19710 23470 88190 18600 115600 36710 160500 43000 32700 94550 23780 39010 84360 147100 33680 96840 29720 29410 33100 30750 60840 48730 61060 36640 63820 30820 40330 97450 31660 45280 27620 42980 85780 11850 55040 54330 31340 45120 112400 105200 29710 30080 27360 37140 149300 16490 56180 4409 24870 20600 24670 126800 19510 163400 101800 14680 36260 112800 45420 34060 36240 24790 23050 77300 16830 57670 97300 86010 29900 99450 35450 46430 109300 39860 22440 34700 36470 30760 43240 32270 29130 25390 33100 92200 36550 56250 28800 38690 12430 43440 89270 39740 24930 33050 35520 49850 29770 26980 38600 105100 36880 29190 20380 23000 62620 36450 201400 37760 22760 33500 27210 81700 40780 25080 82590 44180 23030 57380 27320 75970 29200 46140 74070 27990 31410 25750 33530 82270 44310 33350 25990 51670 92150 32910 38380 87260 48290 27210 23930 38030 13810 33310 66320 40150 31420 37410 81700 52860 126300 54430 101800 40570 249400 113100 25870 86330 30700 29730 49810 160300 69930 50290 17090 16700 179500 33530 84010 14450 27690 18470 64670 19490 23690 42930 53200 43420 48810 27930 87160 23990 18590 21160 40940 40940 34390 96260 36750 100400 41710 63480 40330 22900 28330 47130 36800 30690 120000 46700 19590 56960 68910 19200 30390 73120 93340 38680 101300 41650 18360 74380 4342 46290 24290 28890 37750 67520 74720 62370 24670 47090 51210 93400 43290 26010 46950 60280 67440 19270 58990 13400 72070 25460 22580 22390 84240 34620 25500 36420 31020 10150 12000 88680 103500 27030 25410 32270 88070 26210 34120 168600 4656 82260 48370 65620 36700 30640 20850 43510 31930 83500 19710 24150 38930 24080 109200 33990 26380 38490 35520 39820 32640 49790 72160 54390 92900 32030 45580 60510 39840 26760 26230 26500 93220 65530 78950 34560 29020 89440 27240 65060 43160 65850 63970 74170 24430 25720 31900 55830 38420 34810 24880 38200 28860 57480 37930 36320 25310 14960 97640 76780 32370 25590 34570 35870 107000 85600 82440 105200 68510 41890 31930 35830 39680 23530 34980 41450 11790 30120 34730 25040 56750 28950 42640 61190 107200 124900 33780 44780 100000 32150 50910 81660 29420 29910 35810 32640 51630 32230 27150 56510
2022-03-13 60070 64630 16840 27520 35470 30090 49990 48890 19190 76900 42200 37990 37200 58600 21680 65350 114100 81700 21790 59430 49820 35350 51830 56580 118900 73980 321600 32230 53020 44380 19730 23500 88260 18640 115900 36780 160700 43090 32750 94670 23840 39040 84530 147400 33770 97060 29770 29470 33150 30780 60900 48760 61120 36760 63960 30860 40420 97550 31740 45340 27680 43120 86030 11870 55110 54420 31440 45230 112600 105300 29780 30160 27420 37180 150200 16590 56300 4486 24900 20660 24710 127200 19560 163600 101900 14720 36340 113000 45510 34110 36300 24840 23060 77430 16860 57830 97400 86210 29970 99590 35680 46660 109500 40150 22500 34810 36750 30830 43330 32360 29320 25440 33300 92390 36610 56400 28870 38770 12470 43560 89390 39820 24970 33110 35610 50080 29880 27040 38700 105700 36910 29300 20440 23050 62700 36520 202200 37850 22830 33550 27270 81810 40890 25100 82750 44230 23080 57470 27390 76090 29250 46250 74180 28060 31440 25830 33630 82410 44400 33420 26030 52220 92270 32950 38520 87370 48430 27240 24050 38110 13820 33380 66450 40200 31480 37510 81830 52980 126400 54490 101900 40650 249700 113200 25940 86430 30750 29820 50010 160500 70000 50390 17140 16740 179700 33590 84170 14480 27760 18480 64790 19550 23770 43020 53290 43570 48870 28090 87320 24080 18600 21280 40970 41080 34440 96350 36800 100500 41740 63650 40670 22940 28370 47190 36890 30790 120700 46810 19650 57100 69020 19230 30430 73290 93500 38780 101400 41700 18390 74450 4400 46390 24320 28920 37980 67670 74890 62550 24690 47140 51300 93500 43330 26060 47120 60550 67490 19290 59110 13430 72150 25530 22600 22490 84300 34670 25560 36490 31100 10170 12030 88760 103600 27080 25630 32360 88250 26270 34190 168900 4703 82520 48440 65720 36810 30860 20880 43630 31980 83690 19770 24220 39040 24160 109900 34080 26440 38570 35590 39950 32690 49850 72320 54540 93060 32080 45670 60620 39910 26800 26280 26680 93390 65600 79070 34650 29110 89570 27290 65170 43290 65900 64110 74240 24460 25780 31980 55950 38530 34890 24960 38290 28930 57610 38020 36420 25330 14990 97800 76920 32470 25670 34610 35940 107100 85680 82560 105500 68590 41990 31970 35930 39790 23590 35050 41560 11830 30290 34810 25120 57080 29040 42750 61270 107300 125100 33910 44890 100200 32210 51010 81730 29500 30010 35840 32730 51720 32300 27200 56610
2022-03-14 60440 65160 16890 27570 35540 30340 50180 49090 19330 77100 42330 38040 37290 58740 21740 65470 114400 81810 21830 59610 49960 35410 51960 56680 119300 74120 322100 32280 53070 44440 19750 23550 88340 18710 116200 36860 161000 43180 32810 94830 23910 39070 84850 147700 33860 97350 29820 29540 33210 30810 60970 48800 61220 36920 64140 30910 40530 97710 31820 45390 27770 43270 86290 11880 55230 54540 31540 45350 112900 105500 29850 30240 27490 37240 151000 16700 56430 4566 24920 20720 24750 127800 19630 164000 102100 14760 36430 113300 45660 34160 36390 24900 23100 77570 16910 57980 97520 86450 30060 99730 35930 46890 109700 40450 22570 34930 37020 30910 43480 32450 29520 25490 33510 92680 36670 56570 28950 38860 12510 43720 89560 39920 25010 33170 35710 50490 29990 27100 38810 106300 36970 29440 20500 23090 62820 36600 203100 37950 22900 33610 27330 82010 41010 25160 82920 44280 23120 57620 27460 76240 29290 46360 74290 28140 31480 25910 33730 82570 44510 33490 26080 52770 92400 32990 38670 87480 48590 27260 24180 38200 13830 33540 66630 40320 31540 37630 82030 53190 126500 54550 102100 40790 250200 113400 26010 86630 30820 29910 50210 160900 70110 50500 17210 16820 180000 33670 84380 14510 27830 18500 64970 19610 23850 43120 53370 43720 48940 28250 87530 24160 18630 21430 41000 41280 34490 96540 36900 100600 41770 63810 41010 23000 28430 47250 37040 30890 121500 46920 19710 57260 69120 19260 30480 73450 93740 38890 101600 41740 18410 74540 4462 46500 24350 28940 38220 67860 75070 62730 24720 47190 51440 93640 43380 26110 47300 60850 67540 19310 59240 13450 72250 25600 22620 22600 84420 34740 25620 36560 31180 10200 12050 88890 103700 27140 25850 32460 88450 26330 34270 169100 4751 82780 48550 65830 36940 31080 20920 43770 32040 83910 19820 24300 39150 24240 110700 34180 26500 38670 35670 40080 32740 49930 72490 54730 93310 32170 45770 60730 39990 26840 26330 26860 93620 65680 79250 34740 29210 89700 27350 65370 43420 65980 64260 74320 24510 25870 32080 56110 38640 35040 25040 38380 29020 57760 38110 36570 25340 15020 97990 77080 32620 25770 34670 36030 107200 85760 82740 105800 68720 42090 32020 36050 39910 23660 35150 41690 11860 30570 34920 25190 57410 29120 42920 61440 107400 125400 34040 45050 100400 32290 51120 81800 29570 30170 35890 32820 51810 32360 27270 56720
2022-03-15 60810 65690 16950 27620 35620 30580 50370 49300 19480 77300 42450 38090 37380 58890 21810 65570 114700 81920 21860 59730 50100 35460 52080 56780 119600 74250 322500 32330 53110 44500 19780 23600 88420 18770 116500 36940 161200 43280 32880 94960 23970 39100 85170 148000 33960 97660 29880 29620 33260 30830 61040 48840 61320 37070 64300 30960 40640 97830 31910 45440 27840 43410 86550 11900 55340 54650 31650 45470 113200 105700 29920 30330 27550 37300 151900 16820 56570 4648 24950 20770 24800 128400 19690 164300 102300 14810 36520 113500 45770 34210 36480 24960 23120 77700 16950 58140 97650 86700 30140 99880 36170 47120 109900 40760 22640 35050 37300 31000 43620 32550 29720 25540 33730 92930 36740 56740 29030 38950 12560 43850 89720 40000 25060 33230 35810 50980 30110 27160 38930 106900 37020 29540 20570 23140 62930 36680 203900 38040 22980 33660 27400 82180 41130 25190 83100 44340 23170 57780 27530 76410 29340 46480 74410 28220 31510 25990 33830 82700 44620 33570 26130 53310 92530 33040 38830 87600 48750 27280 24320 38300 13840 33680 66820 40430 31610 37750 82190 53350 126700 54620 102400 40900 250700 113600 26090 86830 30890 29990 50400 161200 70210 50620 17290 16900 180300 33740 84580 14540 27900 18510 65160 19680 23930 43230 53460 43880 49000 28410 87730 24250 18650 21580 41040 41480 34550 96710 36970 100800 41810 63970 41350 23050 28480 47320 37180 30990 122200 47040 19780 57440 69230 19290 30540 73610 93960 39000 101700 41790 18440 74630 4525 46610 24380 28960 38460 68030 75260 62910 24740 47240 51580 93800 43420 26150 47450 61150 67600 19330 59370 13470 72320 25670 22640 22700 84530 34810 25690 36640 31260 10220 12080 89040 103800 27190 26070 32550 88640 26400 34350 169400 4798 83050 48650 65930 37070 31300 20960 43910 32110 84130 19880 24380 39270 24320 111400 34290 26570 38760 35750 40230 32790 50020 72660 54850 93560 32250 45880 60830 40060 26890 26390 27050 93770 65760 79390 34840 29310 89840 27410 65530 43560 66020 64410 74400 24550 25950 32170 56250 38750 35180 25130 38480 29120 57860 38200 36710 25360 15060 98210 77210 32720 25860 34720 36120 107300 85830 82920 106100 68850 42200 32060 36160 40030 23720 35250 41810 11900 30820 34980 25260 57750 29210 43070 61590 107500 125800 34160 45200 100600 32370 51220 81870 29640 30310 35930 32910 51900 32430 27340 56830

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-03-09 to 2022-03-15

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-03-08 58181 61985 16579 27336 35203 28898 49031 47853 18620 75924 41611 37750 36897 57949 21462 65005 113275 81223 21676 58702 49190 35120 51380 56215 116860 73619 320289 32016 52831 44176 19661 23352 87968 18513 114526 36512 159978 42749 32569 94059 23535 38917 83638 146106 33399 96341 29550 29290 32898 30652 60644 48619 60922 36289 63370 30674 40023 96888 31330 45092 27323 42376 84700 11767 54802 54010 30993 44700 111926 104746 29438 29781 27154 37025 145818 16049 55797 4112 24744 20350 24539 126028 19312 162706 101386 14495 35959 112296 45176 33860 36099 24588 22978 76800 16711 57041 97009 85353 29675 98907 34452 45479 108748 38643 22290 34347 35282 30520 43034 31884 28284 25227 32246 91734 36323 55788 28560 38407 12263 43169 88967 39576 24812 32850 35181 48517 29317 26726 38279 102543 36762 28763 20182 22825 62289 36242 198657 37405 22448 33342 27016 81344 40382 25020 81984 44039 22852 57098 27041 75576 29066 45714 73656 27718 31294 25502 33128 81742 44023 33132 25865 49307 91718 32780 37802 86852 47730 27128 23499 37763 13762 32985 65884 39890 31216 37074 81099 52591 125849 54241 101189 40415 248431 112691 25629 85901 30528 29364 48973 159675 69677 49916 16905 16531 178915 33408 83700 14354 27452 18405 64349 19266 23385 42661 52887 42807 48576 27285 86726 23636 18485 20824 40828 40651 34219 95934 36532 99997 41620 62773 38881 22784 28159 46907 36573 30285 117066 46253 19378 56550 68505 19133 30261 72484 92902 38297 100923 41487 18291 74202 4119 45932 24198 28806 36765 67087 74142 61625 24578 46945 50939 93088 43158 25854 46381 59341 67299 19220 58569 13330 71780 25151 22482 21955 83983 34428 25304 36209 30700 10056 11922 88365 103042 26837 24453 31939 87325 25950 33901 167732 4458 81218 48106 65235 36368 29698 20734 43149 31729 82805 19521 23988 38500 23798 106007 33677 26176 38206 35207 39342 32484 49615 71489 53833 92223 31847 45280 60063 39583 26636 26099 25723 92538 65279 78495 34251 28690 88959 27080 64792 42629 65625 63491 73911 24326 25578 31645 55571 37975 34608 24571 37938 28698 57033 37598 36072 25237 14869 96964 76296 32144 25286 34448 35618 106489 85303 82088 104487 68315 41536 31759 35489 39340 23365 34752 41044 11674 29235 34456 24749 55396 28637 42186 60740 106842 123904 33266 44520 99132 31927 50567 81399 29143 29597 35726 32305 51293 31974 26921 56196
2022-03-09 58500 62530 16650 27390 35300 29150 49240 48100 18800 76130 41770 37810 37020 58120 21560 65090 113500 81340 21730 58850 49330 35190 51530 56360 117300 73760 320600 32070 52880 44270 19690 23390 88060 18560 114800 36620 160200 42880 32690 94210 23600 38950 83900 146600 33530 96580 29610 29360 32970 30680 60750 48660 61000 36420 63540 30720 40160 97030 31420 45160 27410 42540 84950 11790 54900 54150 31120 44840 112200 105000 29510 29890 27240 37080 146400 16170 55970 4207 24770 20400 24580 126400 19390 163000 101500 14540 36070 112600 45310 33910 36170 24650 23020 76950 16760 57230 97150 85680 29790 99070 34640 45650 109000 38940 22390 34510 35510 30630 43160 31980 28530 25290 32480 91960 36400 56030 28660 38530 12300 43300 89120 39670 24890 32920 35310 48820 29450 26790 38420 103000 36810 28880 20260 22870 62390 36310 199300 37510 22520 33400 27100 81510 40520 25060 82180 44130 22910 57260 27110 75750 29130 45840 73810 27810 31330 25600 33250 81920 44170 33220 25940 49790 91900 32850 37960 87000 47930 27160 23670 37880 13780 33100 66080 40000 31300 37230 81260 52760 126000 54320 101400 40520 248900 112800 25730 86100 30590 29460 49210 160000 69770 50050 16980 16590 179100 33460 83900 14390 27540 18420 64530 19340 23490 42810 53000 42980 48630 27420 86920 23720 18510 21010 40870 40810 34290 96110 36600 100100 41670 62950 39190 22850 28220 46990 36710 30390 117800 46370 19450 56780 68640 19170 30330 72680 93100 38440 101100 41560 18320 74270 4194 46060 24240 28830 37000 67240 74390 61840 24610 47020 51050 93220 43210 25900 46540 59690 67370 19250 58740 13360 71850 25230 22510 22060 84090 34500 25370 36300 30780 10080 11950 88480 103100 26900 24650 32060 87540 26010 34010 168000 4515 81500 48200 65360 36560 29900 20790 43320 31800 83080 19600 24050 38630 23880 106500 33810 26270 38340 35300 39510 32540 49680 71670 53980 92440 31930 45410 60180 39680 26690 26180 25850 92730 65360 78620 34380 28800 89080 27160 64950 42770 65680 63660 74010 24370 25660 31780 55690 38110 34730 24680 38060 28770 57160 37700 36210 25260 14910 97160 76450 32240 25390 34500 35750 106600 85400 82270 104800 68440 41660 31830 35630 39490 23430 34830 41190 11720 29420 34550 24820 55600 28740 42320 60900 107000 124400 33390 44630 99400 32030 50720 81510 29230 29730 35760 32420 51420 32050 26970 56360
2022-03-10 58960 63160 16700 27430 35360 29420 49420 48290 19000 76310 41880 37870 37090 58230 21620 65180 113700 81440 21760 58950 49430 35230 51620 56460 117700 73870 321000 32110 52920 44330 19700 23410 88140 18590 115100 36690 160300 42960 32780 94360 23640 38970 84100 146900 33600 96760 29670 29410 33030 30710 60810 48690 61050 36530 63670 30760 40250 97130 31470 45220 27460 42690 85130 11800 54990 54250 31200 44950 112400 105200 29550 29960 27300 37130 147300 16280 56080 4287 24810 20440 24610 126700 19440 163200 101700 14570 36130 112800 45410 33950 36230 24710 23050 77070 16800 57390 97240 85870 29860 99170 34900 45940 109100 39230 22430 34610 35750 30690 43260 32040 28730 25340 32700 92130 36450 56170 28740 38600 12320 43390 89250 39730 24940 32970 35400 49250 29520 26850 38520 103700 36840 28960 20310 22900 62460 36360 200300 37580 22560 33440 27150 81650 40630 25090 82350 44180 22950 57370 27160 75890 29170 45930 73950 27870 31360 25690 33330 82060 44240 33290 25980 50390 92030 32890 38060 87140 48050 27180 23820 37960 13790 33190 66210 40090 31350 37330 81390 52890 126200 54380 101600 40580 249200 113000 25800 86240 30640 29530 49390 160200 69870 50140 17030 16650 179300 33490 84030 14420 27590 18420 64640 19400 23550 42890 53080 43110 48680 27580 87080 23780 18540 21150 40890 40920 34340 96240 36650 100300 41690 63110 39480 22880 28260 47040 36800 30450 118400 46440 19500 56890 68760 19200 30370 72840 93270 38530 101200 41610 18340 74330 4291 46140 24280 28850 37240 67370 74510 61960 24630 47080 51140 93350 43240 25940 46650 60020 67410 19260 58860 13380 71910 25290 22530 22140 84180 34550 25420 36360 30840 10110 11980 88580 103200 26950 24900 32140 87660 26050 34070 168300 4584 81680 48260 65450 36640 30080 20820 43430 31850 83240 19650 24110 38710 23930 107200 33890 26310 38430 35350 39630 32580 49730 71780 54090 92630 31990 45500 60260 39740 26730 26220 26040 92860 65430 78720 34450 28890 89180 27210 65070 42850 65750 63770 74070 24390 25700 31850 55780 38190 34800 24750 38140 28830 57260 37780 36300 25280 14930 97340 76550 32310 25450 34550 35830 106700 85510 82410 105000 68530 41750 31880 35720 39590 23480 34910 41290 11740 29640 34590 24870 55920 28820 42430 61030 107100 124600 33470 44720 99600 32090 50820 81600 29290 29830 35790 32500 51520 32110 27020 56470
2022-03-11 59300 63680 16750 27470 35420 29630 49610 48480 19120 76500 41990 37920 37170 58360 21660 65260 113900 81530 21790 59070 49540 35280 51720 56560 118000 73990 321200 32150 52960 44380 19720 23440 88220 18620 115300 36760 160500 43050 32860 94500 23690 39000 84310 147200 33680 96950 29720 29450 33090 30730 60870 48720 61110 36630 63800 30800 40350 97200 31530 45270 27510 42830 85320 11810 55060 54350 31300 45050 112600 105300 29600 30050 27360 37180 147900 16380 56200 4367 24830 20480 24650 127100 19490 163400 101800 14610 36190 112900 45490 33990 36280 24760 23070 77190 16850 57550 97340 86070 29930 99290 35100 46130 109300 39490 22490 34710 35970 30760 43350 32110 28910 25390 32900 92290 36500 56310 28820 38680 12350 43490 89380 39800 24980 33030 35480 49560 29600 26910 38620 104200 36870 29050 20360 22940 62530 36410 200800 37650 22610 33500 27200 81790 40730 25110 82500 44240 22990 57490 27200 76010 29210 46030 74070 27940 31390 25760 33410 82190 44330 33360 26030 50850 92180 32940 38160 87270 48190 27200 23930 38050 13800 33290 66350 40170 31400 37420 81500 52980 126300 54450 101800 40660 249500 113100 25870 86380 30700 29590 49570 160400 69960 50240 17080 16700 179500 33540 84180 14450 27640 18430 64770 19450 23630 42980 53170 43250 48730 27720 87260 23840 18560 21310 40920 41030 34390 96360 36690 100400 41710 63270 39740 22910 28310 47090 36900 30530 119100 46510 19560 57030 68870 19220 30420 72980 93420 38630 101300 41670 18360 74410 4359 46230 24300 28870 37460 67500 74650 62090 24650 47130 51220 93460 43280 25980 46750 60320 67450 19280 58990 13400 71970 25340 22550 22220 84270 34620 25480 36430 30910 10130 12000 88680 103300 27000 25060 32220 87790 26110 34140 168500 4642 81870 48330 65550 36760 30250 20850 43550 31910 83430 19700 24150 38800 24000 107700 33980 26370 38530 35400 39750 32620 49780 71890 54200 92810 32050 45600 60340 39810 26770 26270 26170 93010 65500 78810 34530 28980 89280 27270 65190 42940 65790 63890 74150 24430 25760 31930 55860 38280 34880 24820 38220 28890 57340 37860 36380 25290 14960 97500 76650 32390 25520 34580 35910 106900 85610 82540 105200 68620 41840 31940 35830 39700 23530 34980 41400 11770 29790 34650 24920 56170 28900 42530 61140 107200 124900 33550 44820 99700 32160 50930 81690 29360 29920 35820 32580 51630 32160 27070 56590
2022-03-12 59540 64010 16800 27510 35490 29840 49790 48660 19230 76690 42100 37970 37250 58480 21720 65330 114100 81630 21830 59170 49640 35330 51840 56660 118400 74120 321500 32200 53000 44430 19740 23470 88300 18660 115500 36830 160600 43140 32950 94640 23740 39020 84490 147400 33770 97160 29760 29500 33150 30750 60930 48760 61170 36730 63920 30840 40450 97290 31580 45310 27560 42970 85500 11820 55140 54460 31390 45150 112800 105500 29650 30130 27420 37220 148400 16490 56330 4446 24850 20520 24680 127400 19550 163500 101900 14640 36260 113100 45580 34030 36350 24810 23090 77320 16890 57710 97450 86280 30020 99400 35250 46340 109500 39720 22560 34820 36190 30840 43430 32180 29040 25450 33070 92430 36570 56450 28900 38760 12380 43590 89510 39870 25040 33080 35570 49740 29680 26970 38730 104600 36910 29130 20420 22970 62590 36470 201200 37730 22660 33540 27260 81920 40840 25120 82650 44300 23040 57590 27250 76150 29260 46120 74200 28010 31420 25830 33490 82320 44430 33430 26080 51200 92320 32990 38290 87410 48310 27220 24050 38140 13810 33360 66480 40240 31470 37530 81600 53090 126400 54520 101900 40730 249800 113200 25940 86520 30740 29660 49740 160600 70030 50330 17120 16750 179700 33580 84320 14470 27710 18440 64890 19510 23690 43090 53260 43390 48780 27850 87420 23910 18580 21450 40950 41130 34440 96470 36740 100500 41750 63420 39980 22960 28360 47150 36990 30600 119600 46590 19620 57180 68970 19250 30460 73140 93550 38730 101400 41720 18380 74460 4412 46330 24320 28890 37660 67620 74820 62220 24670 47190 51310 93570 43320 26030 46870 60600 67500 19300 59130 13420 72010 25390 22570 22290 84350 34680 25540 36500 30970 10150 12030 88760 103400 27040 25190 32310 87930 26150 34220 168700 4687 82060 48390 65640 36870 30410 20890 43670 31970 83630 19750 24210 38890 24060 108300 34070 26420 38620 35460 39880 32670 49830 72020 54310 92970 32120 45690 60410 39880 26800 26320 26280 93130 65570 78880 34610 29070 89390 27330 65320 43040 65840 64020 74220 24460 25820 32010 55960 38370 34960 24910 38310 28950 57440 37940 36480 25310 14990 97630 76750 32470 25600 34620 36010 107000 85690 82680 105400 68720 41930 31990 35930 39810 23570 35050 41510 11810 29920 34700 24960 56370 28980 42630 61240 107300 125200 33640 44910 99900 32230 51040 81770 29430 30010 35850 32660 51720 32210 27120 56700
2022-03-13 59880 64510 16850 27560 35560 30040 49980 48860 19340 76890 42210 38020 37330 58600 21780 65410 114300 81740 21860 59290 49760 35390 51950 56770 118800 74250 321800 32240 53040 44500 19760 23490 88380 18690 115800 36910 160800 43240 33060 94780 23790 39050 84650 147700 33870 97360 29810 29550 33210 30780 61000 48790 61240 36830 64050 30890 40550 97360 31650 45350 27620 43110 85700 11830 55220 54580 31490 45260 113000 105700 29700 30200 27480 37280 149000 16580 56450 4533 24870 20560 24730 127700 19610 163700 102100 14670 36340 113300 45680 34060 36410 24870 23100 77440 16920 57860 97570 86520 30090 99530 35440 46530 109700 39990 22620 34920 36410 30910 43520 32240 29230 25500 33240 92610 36620 56620 28980 38840 12410 43710 89650 39940 25090 33140 35650 49980 29760 27030 38850 105000 36940 29210 20480 23010 62660 36530 202200 37810 22720 33600 27330 82040 40950 25140 82800 44360 23080 57700 27310 76280 29310 46200 74330 28090 31450 25910 33570 82440 44540 33500 26120 51610 92470 33050 38420 87550 48450 27250 24170 38220 13820 33430 66610 40300 31530 37640 81710 53200 126600 54580 102100 40800 250200 113300 26010 86650 30790 29720 49930 160800 70120 50440 17160 16800 179900 33630 84470 14500 27770 18450 65010 19570 23760 43200 53360 43540 48830 27980 87580 23980 18590 21610 40980 41250 34490 96580 36790 100600 41770 63570 40220 23010 28410 47200 37080 30670 120200 46670 19690 57340 69080 19280 30520 73280 93720 38830 101600 41780 18410 74530 4469 46430 24340 28910 37880 67760 74960 62340 24700 47250 51390 93700 43360 26070 46970 60910 67550 19320 59260 13440 72070 25450 22590 22350 84440 34730 25590 36570 31030 10170 12050 88850 103500 27100 25310 32400 88050 26200 34290 168900 4743 82260 48450 65740 36990 30580 20930 43800 32030 83820 19800 24270 38980 24110 108800 34170 26490 38720 35510 40000 32720 49880 72140 54420 93110 32180 45780 60490 39960 26850 26380 26410 93270 65650 78980 34710 29170 89510 27380 65430 43130 65890 64160 74300 24490 25870 32110 56070 38460 35040 24990 38390 29010 57530 38030 36560 25330 15020 97770 76850 32570 25660 34660 36100 107100 85800 82810 105600 68810 42030 32040 36030 39920 23620 35120 41620 11840 30060 34760 25010 56610 29050 42740 61330 107400 125500 33730 45000 100100 32300 51150 81860 29490 30100 35870 32750 51810 32270 27160 56820
2022-03-14 60250 65050 16910 27600 35640 30280 50170 49090 19540 77090 42330 38090 37430 58740 21840 65510 114600 81850 21900 59410 49880 35440 52080 56900 119100 74370 322200 32290 53090 44570 19790 23530 88470 18740 116000 37000 161000 43350 33170 94950 23840 39070 84890 148100 33970 97590 29870 29610 33280 30810 61080 48830 61320 36950 64200 30950 40680 97450 31720 45420 27680 43260 85930 11850 55320 54710 31600 45390 113200 105900 29750 30300 27540 37340 149800 16690 56590 4611 24900 20600 24780 128100 19680 164000 102200 14710 36410 113600 45800 34110 36470 24930 23120 77580 16970 58020 97710 86790 30190 99670 35660 46820 109900 40270 22690 35050 36640 30990 43620 32320 29450 25560 33500 92850 36680 56820 29070 38940 12440 43840 89810 40010 25140 33200 35760 50340 29850 27100 38970 105600 36980 29310 20550 23050 62750 36600 203400 37900 22770 33650 27390 82220 41080 25180 82980 44440 23140 57840 27360 76430 29370 46310 74480 28180 31490 26010 33660 82600 44650 33580 26180 52130 92640 33110 38550 87710 48600 27270 24340 38330 13830 33570 66780 40410 31600 37770 81860 53340 126800 54660 102300 40900 250600 113400 26090 86830 30860 29790 50120 161100 70220 50550 17220 16860 180100 33690 84640 14530 27840 18460 65170 19640 23840 43340 53460 43680 48890 28130 87770 24050 18620 21780 41020 41410 34550 96740 36850 100800 41800 63720 40520 23060 28460 47260 37190 30760 120900 46750 19750 57500 69200 19310 30580 73440 93930 38950 101700 41850 18440 74610 4551 46540 24380 28930 38110 67900 75110 62500 24720 47320 51510 93840 43410 26110 47100 61230 67600 19350 59420 13460 72150 25510 22610 22440 84550 34810 25660 36650 31100 10200 12080 88960 103600 27160 25470 32500 88200 26260 34380 169200 4805 82490 48530 65850 37120 30770 20970 43950 32100 84040 19860 24340 39090 24180 109500 34270 26550 38830 35580 40150 32770 49940 72270 54560 93340 32260 45900 60590 40050 26890 26430 26570 93440 65740 79090 34800 29270 89640 27460 65600 43220 65950 64310 74400 24530 25940 32210 56190 38560 35150 25080 38510 29080 57650 38120 36670 25340 15050 97960 76980 32670 25740 34710 36200 107200 85910 82980 105900 68920 42140 32100 36140 40050 23670 35200 41760 11870 30320 34830 25070 56900 29140 42880 61470 107500 125900 33840 45130 100300 32370 51290 81960 29570 30230 35910 32850 51920 32330 27220 56970
2022-03-15 60630 65600 16960 27650 35700 30510 50360 49290 19740 77290 42450 38150 37510 58870 21910 65590 114800 81950 21930 59520 50000 35490 52210 57030 119500 74490 322600 32330 53120 44630 19810 23560 88560 18780 116300 37090 161200 43440 33270 95100 23880 39100 85140 148400 34060 97820 29930 29660 33350 30840 61150 48860 61400 37070 64360 30990 40780 97520 31770 45470 27730 43400 86120 11860 55410 54830 31700 45510 113400 106100 29810 30390 27620 37390 151300 16830 56730 4692 24930 20640 24820 128500 19740 164200 102400 14740 36480 113800 45890 34150 36540 24980 23140 77710 17010 58180 97820 87030 30260 99780 35890 47070 110100 40630 22760 35170 37000 31070 43720 32400 29620 25610 33740 93040 36750 56990 29160 39020 12470 43950 89970 40070 25190 33260 35860 50940 29930 27160 39090 106400 37020 29390 20610 23090 62830 36660 205000 38000 22830 33710 27450 82380 41200 25200 83160 44500 23180 57970 27410 76590 29420 46410 74620 28260 31520 26090 33750 82730 44750 33660 26220 52770 92780 33170 38660 87850 48740 27290 24510 38430 13840 33680 66940 40510 31670 37880 81990 53460 126900 54720 102500 40980 251000 113600 26180 86990 30920 29860 50300 161400 70310 50650 17280 16920 180300 33750 84790 14570 27910 18470 65320 19690 23910 43440 53550 43830 48940 28340 87960 24120 18640 21940 41050 41550 34610 96870 36900 100900 41840 63870 40930 23120 28520 47320 37280 30840 121500 46840 19820 57690 69320 19340 30630 73580 94120 39050 101800 41910 18460 74670 4628 46630 24410 28950 38360 68040 75310 62640 24740 47380 51630 93980 43450 26160 47210 61590 67650 19370 59580 13480 72210 25560 22630 22510 84650 34880 25730 36730 31170 10220 12110 89070 103700 27210 25680 32590 88330 26310 34460 169400 4862 82700 48620 65950 37250 30980 21020 44090 32160 84270 19910 24390 39180 24250 110600 34380 26600 38940 35620 40290 32820 50010 72410 54670 93550 32330 46000 60670 40120 26930 26490 26840 93580 65820 79200 34880 29370 89760 27530 65730 43320 66010 64460 74480 24560 26010 32310 56280 38650 35240 25160 38620 29150 57740 38200 36770 25360 15090 98150 77080 32780 25820 34750 36290 107400 86020 83130 106200 69020 42240 32160 36250 40170 23730 35280 41890 11910 30520 34890 25130 57470 29230 43020 61600 107600 126200 33940 45250 100400 32460 51420 82070 29640 30340 35940 32950 52030 32390 27270 57090

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.